Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/11/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
906 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Area of low clouds over the far eastern part of the area continues
to slowly work its way east, and expect they will exit the area
by 06Z or so. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly dry with seasonable temperatures.
Stratus continues to slowly erode from west to east this afternoon.
The HRRR and RAP have a good handle on timing and extent. Expect
the clouds to clear out completely by 0z.
Warm air will advect in tonight into Saturday from the southwest. A
moderating component of the waa on Saturday will be the upper trough
over the Dakotas and associated cloud cover with it and a passing
sfc low. Latest forecast (blend of NBM/ConsShort) pulls highs down a
few degrees from previous forecasts as H85 temps of +2 to +4C settle
in under the trough in the afternoon. This keeps most of the region
in the 40s Saturday afternoon. Also can`t rule out a sprinkle or two
as the shortwave passes and the sfc low east through southern
SD...mainly east of I-29. POPs remain below a measurable mention of
15% for now.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry with much above normal temperatures.
- Elevated Fire Danger Sunday.
- Possible pattern change at the end of the period.
A few days ago, the upper level flow pattern across the conus
favored an omega block, with ridging impacting the CWA through most
of the next work week. The pattern now features brief ridging aloft
with weak zonal flow developing around midweek. At the end of the
period, both the deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF bring an
upper level trough and surface low pressure system across the
Northern Plains. The system could bring light pcpn, along with
cooler, perhaps near normal temperatures. Overall, temperatures will
be above to much above average for this time of year. With 925 and
850 mb temps mostly above the 75th percentile, highs should warm
into the upper 40s, 50s, and 60s. Can not rule out low 70s on
Tuesday. These readings are 20 to 25 degrees above average.
The period begins on Sunday with an upper level trough and surface
low pressure system crossing the region. The system should pass
through the CWA dry, with gusty northwesterly winds the main impact.
Wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph, along with afternoon RH values of 35
percent of less will cause elevated fire danger on Sunday.
Starting to see a pattern change at the end of the work week with
deterministic models bringing an upper level trough and surface low
pressure system across the region. There are some timing and depth
issues, with the ensemble clusters also showing a spread. The GEFS
has trended colder with this trough on Friday, knocking highs back
into the upper 30s and low 40s. The ECMWF brings the trough through
on Thursday with warmer temperatures moving back into the area by
Friday. Overall, the end of the period may feature cooler, but still
above average temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
An area of MVFR cigs will remain over northeastern South Dakota
and west central Minnesota this evening, then will gradually slide
eastward during the overnight hours. Once they are gone, VFR
conditions will prevail across the area through the remainder of
the TAF period.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
937 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Watching the clouds this evening. Clearing hole opening up from
south central Manitoba to about Cavalier to Grafton to just north
of Grand Forks. But it is narrow. Main clearing line at 0331z was
from Rolette ND to Leeds ND to in between Jamestown and Valley
City to Oakes. It is slowly moving east but noticing as south
winds increase west of the RRV some cloud elements moving more
south to north. So main forecast challenge for sky grids, temps
and aviation is timing of clearing the next 12 hours.
UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s in NW MN, colder than
what hourly HRRR or even NBM had. Suprising as its cloudy there as
well. Clearing line is ever so slowly moving east and will see if
the clearing east continues overnight or it stops. Clearing should
reach Devils Lake, Cando areas around 9/10 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Key Message:
Quiet weather prevails today into Saturday.
Persistent stratus remains in place across the area this afternoon,
with temperatures gradually warming into the lower to middle 30s.
Winds remain generally light and variable through Saturday morning.
Patchy fog is possible, but will be dependent upon potential
clearing, mainly for the Devils Lake Basin and points west.
We should see gradual clearing Saturday morning into midday, with
partly cloudy skies expected by mid to late afternoon. Look for
warmer temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s for afternoon highs
as shortwave ridging builds into the area from the west.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Key Messages:
- Slight chance of some light Precip Sunday afternoon for Northern
RRV and NW MN
- Above normal temperatures Sunday through the next work week
Discussion:
Sunday, A slight chance of precipitation for the
Northern Red river valley and NW Minnesota as a weak upper level
shortwave moves through the Northern Plains. Ensembles guidance only
show a 20% chance of a couple hundredths and less than 10% for a
tenth. No impacts are expected from this wave.
A large broad ridge will dominate the work week next week setting up
zonal flow for the Northern Plains. Temperatures are expected to be
well above normal with temperatures reaching into the 50`s for most
of the forecast area. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the
week as model guidance is depicting a wide Warm air advection event.
With the upper levels remaining dry, no precipitation is currently
expected but a few areas south of I-94 have the potential to reach
60`s that day. The NBM shows the probability of precipitation to be
less than 10% until about Thursday evening into Friday. There is
some uncertainty with the timing and location of a shortwave that is
depicted to possibly bring impacts to our region towards the end of
the work week. Guidance will be monitored as it further resolves the
details of this impeding shortwave.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Stratocu cloud deck cover most of the area remains in the lower
end MVFR range in most areas. Some lowering into IFR ceilings is
possible in a few spots overnight, but overall expect them them to
hold in the 1000-2000 ft agl range. Clearing will work east and
should move into DVL mid or late evening. Clearing trend farther
east given in TAFs are approxmiate. Near calm winds tonight then
south-southeast 10-15 kts in E ND Sat aftn.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
953 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A moist cold front will linger over the area tonight and into
the weekend with rain chances increasing again on Sunday. Dry,
seasonable weather returns for the early part of next week.
Cooler temperatures and increased rain chances return by the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 935 PM: Judging by dewpoints and winds, backdoor front has
pushed thru almost all of the CWA, setting the stage for a hybrid
CAD event. A few very faint returns are seen over SW NC and the
upper Savannah valley where a layer of westerly winds is producing
weak upglide. Not expecting much change in this regard overnight;
per recent RAP progs the winds remain oriented such that the
upglide won`t be all that conducive to precip. After midnight,
right-rear quadrant of jet streak passing to the north will give a
boost to lift, and it still appears this will lead to an expansion
of precip in the CWA. Raised PoPs slightly with this update but
the more appreciable chances are still south of the NC border;
also added a drizzle mention for most areas. Best chances now look
a little later, say 7 to 11 AM. Again touched up temps/dewpoints
per latest obs although values were pretty much on track. Should
be too dry/mixed within the wedge for a threat of fog, but the
mountain valleys still may see some minor vsby restrictions. Lows
will be cooler than last night, but still 7-9 degrees above normal
owing to cloud cover.
Cold air damming high pressure remains in place across the area on
Saturday. Upper divergence will remain a factor during the day as
noted above. There may be enough dry air for some sunshine across
the mountains and I-40 corridor during the afternoon. Still, much
colder highs are expected with the initial clouds and colder air
mass still building in. Readings should end up around 5 degrees
below normal with slightly higher temps across the mountains and
I-40 corridor where precip chances are lower.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:25 PM EST Friday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z
on Sunday with near-zonal WSW upper flow over the Southeast. As
the day wears on, a low amplitude upper shortwave will approach
our area from the west and then move offshore by early Monday.
By the end of the period late Monday, upper ridging will begin
to amplify well to our west as upper trofing amplifies over New
England to our north. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be
centered well to our north as the period begins, while what`s
left of the moist frontal bndy lingers just to our south. By
early Monday, the center of the high will move over New England
as a weak meso-low develops just off the Southeast Coast and
moves further offshore by late Monday morning. This will cause
profiles to dry considerably across our CWA on Monday as the
deeper moisture gets shunted to our south and east and low-
level flow remains NELY across our area. As for the sensible
fcst, I kept high-end chance to likely precip chances across
our CWA for Sunday. QPF amounts still look fairly meager, with
the highest amounts of up to about a quarter inch still expected
across our southern zones with less the farther north you go.
With the wedge pattern in place for most of the period, we can
expect temperatures on Sunday to top-out roughly 8 to 14 degrees
below-normal, with even cooler values possible if precipitation
overspreads more the region earlier in the day. Temps should
rebound a fair amount on Monday as the wedge weakens and cloud
cover diminishes. Highs are expected to approach climatology,
but probably won`t reach it across the lower terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2:35 PM EST Friday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z
on Tuesday with positively-tilted upper trofing moving over New
England while broad upper ridging drifts eastward over the central
CONUS. An embedded southern-stream upper shortwave will approach
our area on Wednesday and is expected to deamplify as it lifts up
and over our area on Thursday. In its wake, the upper pattern will
flatten out again to end the period late next week. At the sfc,
broad high pressure will be centered to our NW as the period
begins late Monday. At the same time, an area of low pressure
will be trying to develop over the far NW Gulf of Mexico. Over
the next couple of days, the center of the high will slide east
and over the mid-Atlantic Coast while the gulf low gradually
moves eastward along the Gulf Coast. This will setup a wedging
pattern over the western Carolinas and slow the approach of the
gulf low. Nonetheless, the sfc high is expected to eventually
move offshore by the end of the period. As it does, a broad area
of deeper moisture and increased isentropic upglide will spread
over our CWA from the SW and increase precip chances from late
Wednesday thru Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Backdoor cold front has settled past
KCLT/KHKY/KGSP/KGMU ushering in high pressure arguably in CAD
configuration. A low VFR cloud deck will blanket these sites until
morning. KGSP/KGMU are nearer the boundary and should see MVFR cigs
continue for a while before lifting to low VFR. KAVL will see lower
cigs with easterly flow providing additional low level lift and
periodic light precip, and likely eventual fog development. KAND
is difficult to pin down, having not yet seen airmass change
associated with the CAD wedge. Cigs will vary near IFR threshold
for a time before improving to MVFR with further drying later this
evening. Isentropic lift developing over the wedge, in advance of
a weak low near the Gulf Coast, will bring precip chances to the
SC sites in the early to mid morning, hence TEMPOs. Confidence
decreases during the day: some guidance favors deteriorating
conditions as precip rates taper off, as often happens in CAD;
others show the dry NE flow winning out and maintaining no worse
than low VFR cigs. The NAM and MET guidance fall into the latter
camp and they typically are more trusted in CAD, but furthermore
low-level progs support a more optimistic forecast anyway. Kept
SCT MVFR level clouds in KGSP/KGMU but did bring back low MVFR by
aftn at KAND.
Outlook: Unsettled weather could persist on Sunday with the slowly
passing cold front expected to stall just southeast of the area;
periods of restrictions will be possible. Drier high pressure will
return by Monday and remain in place through the middle of next
week. Precip and associated restrictions may return on Thursday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
833 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
A weak trough of low pressure is over northeast FL and the adjacent
coastal waters, while a cold frontal boundary is across SC and
north GA. The front is expected to push southward tonight while
the trough will tend to weaken and dissipate through the night.
Little overall change in the forecast for rest of tonight. A low
chance (10-20 percent) of a shower mainly over inland southeast GA
later tonight and over coastal northeast FL zones this evening and
possibly overnight. May tweak the POPs a bit more for tonight as
better shower chance may develop over northeast FL based on the
latest HRRR run. Otherwise, increased the chance of fog for coastal
southeast GA and the northeast FL coastal waters, as the light
winds and the high dewpoint air along the coast (lower 70s
dewpoints) may lead to rapid development of some fog and low
stratus.
For the marine forecast, little change other than to mention fog
in the forecast for tonight.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Partly sunny conditions will continue for the remainder of the
day. Current temperatures sitting in the 80s area wide, with
temperatures expected to reach near/above record levels for some
locations (KJAX, KCRG, and KAMG already matched their records
today). As a weak seabreeze develops along the Atlantic coast this
afternoon, there will be a slim chance of a stray coastal shower.
Overnight, cloud cover will increase from SE GA towards the I-10
corridor as the cold front advances southward. Patchy fog to
areas of fog expected across inland NE FL overnight into early
Saturday morning.
High temps expected around the mid 80s over inland locations of NE
FL with lower 80s for inland locations of SE GA and coastal
areas. Overnight, above normal Lows as temperatures will be in the
lower 60s for SE GA and the Suwannee Valley region, while
locations east of the I-75 corridor in NE FL will be in the mid
60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
Saturday...Cold frontal passage makes it`s way slowly southward
from SE GA in the morning hours and through NE FL in the afternoon
hours with limited rainfall chances and mostly light amounts less
than a tenth of an inch. The timing of this feature will hold Max
temps in the 60s/70s for SE GA, while still another day expected
into the lower/middle 80s across NE FL south of the I-10 corridor.
Northeast winds will increase behind the frontal boundary becoming
breezy along the Atlantic Coast at 15-25 mph and 10-15 mph over
inland areas.
Saturday Night...Frontal boundary will continue to slide south
down the FL Peninsula with NE winds ushering in cooler temps
falling into the 50s across SE GA and lower 60s across NE FL with
limited light rainfall chances continuing, along with gusty NE
winds along the Atlantic Coastal Areas.
Sunday and Sunday Night...High confidence in frontal boundary
pushing southward into south FL, while models struggling with weak
wave of low pressure developing along the boundary to the East of
the FL peninsula which would result in tighter pressure gradient
and the potential for Wind Advisory conditions along the Atlantic
Coast for peak wind gusts around 40 mph. Otherwise rainfall
coverage remains relatively low and mainly along coastal areas
with light shower/drizzle activity at times. Temps will fall
closer to normal to below normal levels with highs only in the 60s
across SE GA and lower to middle 70s for NE FL, but will depend on
how strong the NE flow is, but overall high confidence in at least
Mostly Cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
Long duration onshore flow event with High Pressure ridge nosing
down from the Carolinas with occasional light rainfall and drizzle
over-running the old frontal boundary south of the region through
most of the period with temperatures mainly below normal levels.
Breezy conditions are expected inland and Windy NE flow along the
Atlantic Coast in the 15-25G35 mph for most of next week. Longer
range models still struggling to time the next shortwave aloft
that will develop a low pressure system along the old frontal
boundary on either Wednesday/Thursday and bring it back northward
across NE FL/SE GA with a more moderate to locally heavy rainfall
event and more substantial rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches during
this time frame, with this feature exiting to the East of the
region late in the week with lowering rainfall chances by Friday
with a return to more normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
VFR conditions at this time with multilayered clouds over the forecast
region. Deteriorating conditions are expected later tonight with
low vsby and cigs developing first along the coastal TAFs and then
spreading/developing inland. Generally trended to occasional IFR
and LIFR conditions for early Friday morning. Improving cigs and
vsby expected by late morning and early afternoon but conditions
will lower into MVFR at times during the afternoon as a cold front
shifts southward over the area ushering in more low level moisture
and temps will cool. Light winds tonight, but become northeast and
increase through Friday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
Light and variable winds around 10 knots or less expected through
tonight with a weak East Coast sea breeze this afternoon. Frontal
passage still on track Saturday morning with increasing Northeast
winds through the afternoon hours, confidence in initial surge is
high enough to raise Small Craft Advisory headlines with this
package for the SE GA coastal waters for NE winds around 20 knots,
while only Medium confidence for the NE FL waters for Saturday
afternoon, likely peaking in the 15-20 knot range, so will hold
off for SCA headlines with this package, BUT SCA headlines will be
raised for all coastal waters from Sat Night/Sunday through most
of next week as a protracted Northeast flow event remains as High
pressure ridge builds into the Carolinas with lower pressure over
the Bahamas and localized trough over the local waters as well. A
few Gale Force wind gusts are expected with this event in the
Sunday/Monday time frame, but still some question as whether the
pressure gradient will tighten enough over the waters to warrant a
Gale Watch/Warning, and with low confidence at this time will hold
off on any issuance with this package. Overall, combined seas will
build to at least 7-10 feet by late Sunday and remain in this
range for most of next week.
Rip Currents/Surf: Rip current risk to become HIGH this weekend
with the increasing onshore flow and will remain HIGH through all
of next week. Surf/Breakers will increase to 2-4 ft on Saturday,
4-6 ft on Sunday and 6-8 ft by Monday, and High Surf Advisory
headlines will likely be required by late Sunday and will continue
through much of early next week. These conditions will likely
combine to create significant beach erosion from Sunday through
most of next week due to the long duration of the expected onshore
flow event.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 132 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
Coastal Flood Forecast models suggesting Elevated tidal levels
during high tide on Sunday, with slightly higher confidence of
Minor Coastal Flooding along the NE FL/SE GA Atlantic beaches on
Monday (New Moon) with high tide levels reaching around 2 feet
above MHHW and Coastal Flood Advisory may be required. These minor
high tidal flooding levels will likely trap tides in the St. Johns
River Basin as well with some Minor Coastal Flooding expected
there by Monday/Tuesday time frame and may linger through most of
next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 700 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023
New record highs for Friday November 10th:
Jacksonville 86F
Craig Airfield 85F
Gainesville 87F
Alma 85F
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 69 55 63 / 20 40 40 30
SSI 65 72 60 68 / 10 30 20 20
JAX 64 77 61 71 / 10 20 20 20
SGJ 68 79 65 75 / 0 20 20 20
GNV 64 84 64 77 / 0 20 10 10
OCF 65 86 65 80 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Thursday for
AMZ450-470.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
524 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower chances Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly for eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A brief period of mixed
precipitation is possible, though little to no accumulation is
expected.
- Significantly warmer next week, with highs forecast to climb well
above normal. 60s are possible by the middle of the week.
The gloomy skies and widespread stratus that has
blanketed the region for the majority of the day will persist
through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures may warm a degree or
two this afternoon, though most areas will struggle to break out of
the 30s due to northwesterly flow and persistent cloud cover. Latest
HREF continues to advertise breaks in the cloud cover over western
Minnesota this evening, with perhaps some improvement across eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin overnight. That said, RAP forecast
soundings appear a bit more pessimistic with the departure of
stratus east of I-35, so have opted to keep sky coverage on the
higher side for eastern locations into the overnight hours. A chilly
night is ahead, with morning lows forecast to dip into the 20s.
Weak zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep things
quiet overnight into Saturday morning. A dip in the upper jet and
500mb PV anomaly will slide the next shortwave of interest into the
Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. 850mb wind guidance reveals a
strengthening LLJ across southern Minnesota from the late afternoon
onward, with southwest flow of 35-40 kts. This flow will aid warm
advection and the northward progression of a surface warm front.
Latest hi-res suite seems to have a better handle on the development
of scattered precipitation on the nose of the LLJ, though confidence
in coverage remains too low to increase PoPs to likely at this time.
As far as p-type, think that most of the scattered precipitation
will fall as rain during the afternoon across locations in Minnesota.
Ongoing scattered rain showers may transition to mixed precipitation
in western Wisconsin as the profile cools, both due to the diurnal
temperature curve and the assistance in evaporative cooling from the
lift aloft. The potential for mixed precipitation appears most likely
in western Wisconsin, however little to no accumulation is expected.
Outside of the precipitation chances, it will be a breezy Saturday
afternoon and evening, with southerly gusts up to 25 mph.
Significant changes are on the way for next week, as split-flow and
anomalous upper-level ridging builds over much of northern CONUS.
Combination of the ridging aloft and surface high pressure over
eastern CONUS will allow for broad southwest flow and mild Pacific
air to move towards Minnesota and Wisconsin. Forecast highs will
climb well into the 50s for Sunday and Monday, followed by a few
days in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Normal high temperatures for
the middle of next week are in the 40s, which means the well-above
average trend will make it feel more like mid-October! The duration
of mild air is somewhat uncertain, as global ensembles and
deterministic guidance bring a trough into northern CONUS in the
Thursday/Friday timeframe. Guidance differs on the magnitude and
intensity of this feature, so differences also exist with respect to
the arrival of cooler air. Nonetheless, there is decent consensus
amongst GEFS, EPS, and NBM that temperatures will dip back into the
40s by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Light winds and MVFR ceilings will continue this evening into
tonight. Saturday morning should finally see the end of these
ceilings with a return to VFR. Winds will pick up during the day on
Saturday up to 10 to 20 knots. Near the end of this period there will
be a chance for some light precipitation, but chances remain to low
for inclusion in the TAF at this time. The best chance for
precipitation will be at the Wisconsin terminals.
KMSP... Continued MVFR through tonight, VFR returns on Saturday.
Could see some rain late Saturday, but chances are more likely to the
east so kept it out of the TAF for now.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20 kts becoming W.
Mon...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts becoming S.
Tue...VFR. Wind S 15-20G30 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...NDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
927 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Seeing a slight uptick in precipitation coverage over the last
couple hours across the Lower Toledo Bend Country of West Central
Louisiana, into portions of East Central Louisiana due mostly in
part to isentropic processes with southerly and southwesterly
winds overrunning the lowest 3kft. This supports the latest runs
of the 00z NAM as well as latest HRRR output and therefore need to
increase pops slightly across our southeast half. Otherwise, made
no additional changes to pops for the remainder of the night.
Looking ant IR imagery this evening, some clearing has occurred
near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor of NE TX into SE OK and
extreme SW AR but believe this will be temporary as mid and high
level clouds are observed moving north and east out of northern TX
and S OK attm. Because forecast min temps were nearly at 03z
observed values, did lower temps across our far northern zones
just a tad. Elsewhere...not expecting just a big temperature drop
due to the insulating effects of the lower cloud cover, with the
exception being where precipitation falls across our far southeast
zones overnight. All other grids in pretty good shape with no
additional changes necessary.
Updated zones already sent...13.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
Much cooler conditions across the region in wake of yesterday`s
frontal passage. Weak isentropic lift above this cooler airmass
has kept low clouds along with light rain/drizzle across the
region today. This has kept temperatures nearly steady in the mid
50s for most of the region. However, locations north of I-30 have
managed to get a break in cloud cover, which has allowed temps to
climb into the low to mid 50s.
By tonight, only expecting to see a drop of a few degrees in
temps, as cloud cover will remain across most of the region. The
exception again will be in areas north of I-30, where the break in
cloud cover could allow lows to fall into the mid 40s. In
addition to that, light rain/drizzle chances will remain in the
forecast. Short term progs continue to suggest that weak
isentropic lift will continue as more weak disturbances will move
across southeast Texas/SW Louisiana ahead of a trough digging
across the SW CONUS. This setup is expected to persist through the
day Saturday, keeping low clouds and a chance for light
rain/drizzle across most of the region south of the I-30 corridor.
By Saturday night, most of this activity should move out of the
area, as drier air starts to filter into the region. But, cloud
cover is expected to remain, especially south of I-30. Morning
lows on Sunday will range from the mid 40s north of I-30, to lower
50s across our southern zones. /20/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
A very welcomed shift in the long-term forecast is underway, as the
closed low I`ve been mentioning the last few days appears to be
ejecting earlier than anticipated. This ejection is tightening the
pressure gradient, and pushing the low farther north. In turn, rain
chances and amounts are beginning to greatly increase in our drought
stricken SE zones. Now, with all that being said, there is still
plenty of uncertainty in this forecast. The ejection has sped up
almost two full days, and QPF has increased by almost two inches.
This still leaves room for the trough ejection to slow down, and the
QPF bullseye to shift somewhere else. While I will certainly
"wishcast" for more rain in our area, the truth is that most of NW
Louisiana is starving for measurable rainfall. We`ll take these 1-2
inches if it means other drought areas get 4+ inches. The bulk of
this rain will be through Tuesday, with lingering rain chances
remaining through Wednesday before a weak ridge builds in.
Temperatures this long-term continue to look like they`ll run
seasonable through the middle of the workweek. However, when this
weak ridge builds in, these temperatures will begin to climb into
next weekend. By this time next week, afternoon highs could sneak
back into the mid-70s in some of our southern zones.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
A mixed bag ceiling wise to begin the 00z TAF cycle with IFR
ceilings continuing near and southeast of a line from the LFK
terminal to the MLU terminal. This airspace also coincides with an
area of remaining -RA or -DZ in an area of continued isentropic
forcing in the wake of a strong cold front that moved completely
through our airspace late last night. To the north and west of
this LFK to MLU line, ceilings are improving to VFR variety now at
the TYR/GGG/SHV/TXK and ELD terminals. Cannot say that will be a
permanent thing, especially the I-20 terminals of TYR/GGG and SHV
but model time/height cross sections do support at least low VFR
ceilings through much of the 24hr TAF package at these locations
with higher VFR ceilings at the TXK and ELD terminals and that`s
what this 00z TAF package will show.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 50 59 51 68 / 20 20 20 10
MLU 50 60 52 69 / 40 30 40 10
DEQ 42 60 44 67 / 0 10 10 0
TXK 47 58 46 64 / 10 10 10 0
ELD 46 58 46 66 / 10 20 20 10
TYR 50 58 51 66 / 20 20 10 0
GGG 50 58 51 67 / 20 20 10 0
LFK 53 58 53 69 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13