Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/10/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1014 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure exits the south coast late Thursday. In its
wake, dry and seasonable weather overspreads the region
Thursday night and Friday. High pressure over the Great Lakes
Saturday builds into New England Sunday, providing dry but
chilly weather this weekend, with blustery conditions Saturday.
Dry weather continues into early next week, but likely a
reinforcing surge of cold air.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1010 PM Update:
Forecast challenge for the remainder of the evening and
overnight is the coverage of foggy conditions.
Low pressure has moved offshore, with what is currently pretty
weak WNW sfc flow behind it. However shallow layer of moisture
trapped underneath inversion has resulted in fog and stratus
around, and while we are finally starting to see improvement in
stratus conditions across eastern MA and northern sections of
RI, we`ve seen areas of fog develop with greater coverage across
interior MA and into portions of northern CT. Trend in lower
level moisture is for modest drying, which is being handled the
best by the RAP guidance. But with neutral to very slight cool
advection, it will still be enough where any clearing skies
could lead to foggy conditions virtually anywhere. Expect by the
pre-dawn hrs as wind speeds pick up that any fog should scatter
or disperse but some foggy areas can be expected. Confidence in
the coverage of fog is pretty low but did include mention of fog
in some areas following the Aviation Weather Center`s visby
guidance and the GFS LAMP. Visbys probably will not be low
enough and coverage probably not widespread enough for the need
for any advisories.
Modest cooling tonight but temps may not fall all that far from
current values as high clouds will also be streaming back in
from the SW.
Previous discussion from 3 PM:
* Drying trend & decreasing clouds this evening
Thru 7 PM...
Weak low pressure near Block Island at 2 PM providing cool N-NE
flow along and NW of the I-95 corridor, with temps only in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. This moist/cool air combined with light
flow, is yielding low clouds, areas of drizzle and fog across
RI and eastern MA, including the Worcester Hills. Along the
south coast, warm sector airmass is into BID-MVY-ACK with temps
in the 50s. Although, current conditions at 2 pm will be short
lived, as progressive flow aloft and dry slot approaching
rapidly from the west, already resulting in clearing conditions
from southeast NY into western CT. This trend will continue late
this afternoon and early evening, with clearing conditions
overspreading the region ~21z western MA into central CT, ~00z
eastern MA.
After 7 PM...
Dry, post frontal airmass overspreads the region this evening
with mostly clear conditions. Modest CAA into the region,
yielding west winds 10-15 mph, gusting up to 20 mph across the
Cape and Islands. Then second half of the night, mid level
clouds will be on the increase after midnight in response to
weak WAA aloft ahead of next approaching short wave. This will
result in seasonable overnight lows in the 30s, except low 40s
across the Cape and Islands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...
Friday...
* More clouds than sunshine, but remaining dry
Trailing northern stream short wave rotating through the long
wave trough Friday. This will result in a canopy of clouds
across the region, thickest along the south coast (hence, not
much sunshine) with perhaps some dim sunshine across northern
MA. However, good model agreement that any precip remains
offshore, as mid level flow remains fairly zonal. Seasonably
cool with highs 50-55, upper 40s high terrain. Brisk west winds
10-20 mph will make it feel a bit cooler at times.
Friday night...
Behind departing short wave, decreasing clouds and CAA with a
brisk WNW wind 10-15 mph, gusts up to 20 mph over Cape Cod and
the Islands. Dry weather prevails with lows in the 30s, likely
feeling cooler given brisk WNW winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM update...
Key Point:
High (80%+) confidence for an extended stretch of dry, cool
conditions
Discussion:
12z guidance suite still show our part of the world will be
dominated by high pressure for just about the entire time. With
low/mid level flow generally from the NW to N, this will advect in a
slightly cool (but very typical) airmass much of the time. 925mb
temperatures over the weekend into Monday will be running near -3C,
which even with plenty of sunshine, will only support highs in the
lower to mid 40s (upper 30s in the higher hills). An upper level
shortwave does go by to our north Monday night/Tuesday, but it
appears it only produces a period of clouds given a very dry airmass
(PWATS < 0.4"). Ensemble guidance cluster analysis does suggest
about 1/3rd of the models have that shortwave a little further south
and stronger, but even then they support only a 30% chance of very
light precipitation. Thus will stick with the NBM and it`s
depiction of keeping it dry during that time. As we get into mid-
week, the upper level ridging builds to our west and slowly moves
east, allowing a warmer airmass to come into our area. Wednesday
will likely feature normal temperatures, and slightly above by
Thursday. Sneaking a peek behind the curtain for late next
week/weekend, uncertainty in the forecast rapidly increases but it
appears probabilities increase for some wet weather to return.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF update
Overall high confidence in the forecast, especially the trends.
Still expect timing errors with respect to the forecast through
06z and the lifting of ceilings from IFR/MVFR to VFR as well as
the dissipation of the BR. TAFs have the current best estimate
in the timing, and did lean on the guidance that is slower to
get to the VFR conditions. Net effect was to show that
transition 1-2 hours later than the prior TAFs indicated.
Certainly by 04-06z we should have VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Those conditions continue for the rest of the night and
all day Friday and into Friday night. Will have periods of
mid/high level clouds, but that is about it. Surface west winds
should get a little gusty (up to 20kt) during the mid day and
afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...timing for the transition from MVFR to VFR could
be off by an hour, but otherwise high confidence.
KBDL Terminal...timing for the transition from MVFR to VFR could
be off by an hour, but otherwise high confidence.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Veterans Day through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...weak low pressure in RI sound at 3 pm will move east
and offshore this evening, followed by a wind shift to the WNW.
This will yield improving vsby and dry weather.
Friday...dry NW flow 15-20 kt with good vsby.
Friday night...high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, with
winds over the MA/RI waters becoming NNW 15-20 kt, gusts up to
25 kt possible.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Veterans Day through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt.
Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Nash
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Nocera/Nash
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Loconto/Nocera/Nash
MARINE...Loconto/Nocera/Nash
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
949 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
Latest MSAS analysis shows the wavy front from Brenham to Pleasanton
to near Cotulla southwest to Columbia Bridge, with an inverted trough
axis from Pleasanton south to Falfurrias. Pressure rises behind the
front are not too impressive at this time, so frontal boundary may
be a little slower to reach the coast. Deep moisture will be in
place over the coastal plains where precipitable water values are
around 2 inches. Expect low level convergence will increase
ahead of the trough axis and the slowly advancing front through
the night. Models also show good upper level divergence over south
Texas with the right entrance region of the upper jet over north
central Texas. Hi-res models are similar showing convection
forming over the coastal plains during the night. So the Marginal
threat for excessive rainfall will continue for the coastal plains
through the night. Some isolated areas received over 4 inches
late this afternoon and evening. Made slight adjustments to the
PoPs for tonight into Friday. Expect moisture overriding the
shallow cool air will lead to areas of showers across most of the
region Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 337 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
Key Messages:
- High chance (70-95%) of showers and thunderstorms tonight through
tomorrow night
- Low chance (less than 5%) of flash flooding
A bit more active of an afternoon has unfolded ahead of the
approaching cold front with periods of moderate to heavy rain across
South Texas. So far this afternoon, the ASOS at Corpus Christi
International Airport has reported 1" of rain with the ASOS at
Victoria Regional Airport coming in at 0.70". These showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue developing along the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads this afternoon and evening and move
northeastward ahead of the front. Due to the likelihood of periods
of moderate to heavy rain, the Weather Prediction Center has
reintroduced a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall denoting at least
a 5% chance of flash flooding.
The cold front is expected to reach our the Cotulla area this
evening around sunset and just north of the Coastal Bend by
midnight, finally pushing offshore late tonight into early tomorrow
morning. Warm moist air overrunning the cold front along with
frontogenesis in the 925 mb will continue to promote a high chance
(60-90%) of showers throughout the day Friday and Friday night.
Despite the high chances of rain Friday and Friday night, limited
instability will temper thunderstorm chances with only a low chance
(15-30%) of thunderstorms. Despite around an inch of rain already
falling this afternoon, there is medium chance of receiving another
2" of rain through Friday night with probabilities this morning of
surpassing 3" during the aforementioned time period being at 40-50%.
Rain cooled lows tonight will only drop into the mid 50s inland to
mid 60s near the coast with temperatures increasing slightly
tomorrow with daytime highs forecast in the low to mid 60s.
Overnight lows tomorrow will drop into the mid to upper 50s across
the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
The upper pattern over the CONUS remains quasi-zonal
Saturday/Sunday, while an upper disturbance approaches TX from
northwestern Mexico (GFS/ECMWF/NAM). A nearly saturated environment
with a lower level inversion, along with isentropic lift (using the
305K level as a proxy), expected to persist Saturday/Sunday.
Numerous to widespread showers, and/or areas of stratiform rain, are
expected to persist Saturday/Sunday. With zero surface-based CAPE,
any thunderstorm activity over the CWA would probably occur if any
layer of convective instability (decrease in theta-E with height)
above the inversion is lifted via weak upper disturbances that may
move across the region. The GFS/ECWMF predict PWAT values around
1.75 inches Saturday/Sunday, which is well above normal. Warm moist
layer below 4-km notwithstanding, do not anticipate excessive heavy
rainfall Saturday/Sunday over the CWA given the lack of a surface
boundary, strong 0-6km wind shear, zero surface-based CAPE (per the
NAM). Caveat...A surface trough/low is predicted to remain nearly
stationary offshore, along with PWAT values of around 2 inches.
Thus, persistent heavy convective rainfall is expected to remain
offshore. If this surface trough moves west, the risk of a heavy
rainfall event will increase over the eastern CWA. Sunday
night/Monday, the GFS/ECMWF predict the foregoing upper disturbance
over Mexico to move across the region. In response, the surface
trough/low develops further, yet remains offshore, then lifts toward
the northeast. Over the CWA, anticipate additional shower activity,
and isolated thunderstorms owing to the lifting (by the upper
disturbance) of convectively unstable layers. Dry Tuesday through
Thursday. Owing to the position of the surface trough/low offshore,
it is possible that the flow over the adjacent coastal waters
remains moderate/strong northeast Saturday through Monday. If this
occurs, Ekman forcing may cause water levels to approach the
threshold for minor coastal flooding by Monday, during the times of
high tide.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through
the Victoria Crossroads early this evening. Additional convection
has been strengthening south of ALI. Latest HRRR model shows this
area of convection continuing to increase as it moves into the
Coastal Bend this evening. VFR ceilings will be prevalent over
the coastal plains this evening with periodic lowering to MVFR
with MVFR to IFR vsbys in the stronger showers. The cold front has
reached COT and should slowly move south to a VCT-ALI-LRD line by
late this evening (04Z FRI) and be near the coast by the early
overnight period. Will continue to show thunderstorms possible for
the coastal plains through 04Z and along the coast until 08Z.
Ceilings are expected to lower to low end MVFR after frontal
passage and down to IFR during the overnight hours. Poor aviation
conditions will persist over the coastal plains through the day
Friday with IFR ceilings and MVFR vsbys in light rain, but expect
some improvement over the western Brush Country to MVFR with
intermittent light showers possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds this evening will veer to the north
late tonight into early tomorrow morning and increase to moderate to
strong in the wake of the front. There is a high chance (85-100%) of
showers tonight through Friday night with a low chance (20-30%) of
thunderstorms across the local waters. A surface trough/low is
expected to remain quasi-stationary with axis near the offshore
coastal waters. The combination of this surface feature and
copious moisture will contribute to persistent numerous to
widespread showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms
Saturday/Sunday. An upper level level is expected to move across
the region Sunday night/Monday, and contribute to additional
convection. Conditions will improve Tuesday as the upper system
lifts toward the northeast. Moderate to strong north/northeast
flow expected to persist Saturday/Sunday. As suggested by the
GFS/ECWMF, winds may becoming predominately strong north Sunday
night through Tuesday, as the surface low intensifies Sunday
night/Monday, then as the MSLP gradient remains strong as surface
high pressure builds from the northwest as the upper system moves
toward the northeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 60 63 57 64 / 80 90 90 80
Victoria 58 64 55 61 / 80 80 90 70
Laredo 59 60 57 63 / 70 70 60 40
Alice 58 61 55 63 / 80 90 90 70
Rockport 60 64 57 66 / 80 90 90 80
Cotulla 58 63 57 66 / 60 50 40 40
Kingsville 60 63 57 64 / 80 90 90 80
Navy Corpus 62 65 60 68 / 90 90 90 80
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT/89
LONG TERM....WC
AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
544 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 241 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
Key Messages:
1) Mostly dry conditions will continue through mid-week next week,
with the most likely time frame for any precipitation coming late
Saturday
2) Some elevated fire danger conditions will be possible this
weekend with strengthening southerly winds
3) Temperatures warm up further into the middle of next week
Conditions tonight will continue to be calm and cool, despite a mid-
level shortwave trough sweeping across northern Iowa this evening.
The main result will be a period of brief cloudiness before
quickly diminishing. Dry air in the lowest 8000 feet of the
atmosphere, per the latest NAM and RAP soundings, will ensure dry
conditions prevail tonight. Another cool night is expected, with
lows tonight in the upper 20s north to around 30 south.
As we head into Friday and the weekend, mostly dry conditions will
continue, thanks to a large area of high pressure across the central
CONUS. Winds will pick up for Saturday, with winds between 20 to 30
mph expected across north-central into northwestern Iowa. This could
support elevated fire danger potential once again Saturday. As
the high pressure ridge moves to the east PM Saturday, a mid-
level shortwave will move across northern Iowa during this time
frame. QPF signals in the global models are indicating a brief
period of rain is possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
the northern forecast area, but confidence is low on any
appreciable amounts as saturation of the column appears to be very
brief per the NAM soundings. A low-level jet is progged to be in
play, however, so enhanced moisture transport could help overcome
the dry air in place. With this potential for rain, we did
introduce slight chances of rain across the northern areas for PM
Saturday.
For Sunday and beyond, dry conditions are expected, thanks to a
humongous upper-level ridge that will become anchored across the
central U.S. There is very high confidence in this dry period with
the WPC cluster analysis indicating strong positive 500 mb height
anomalies among the entire suite of global ensembles for next
week. Another area of focus will be on relatively warm
temperatures, with highs Wednesday warming to the lower to middle
60s. While these values aren`t impressive at face value, these
high temperatures would be nearly 15 to 20 degrees warmer than
seasonal averages for mid-November.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
Mid level clouds and possibly a few sprinkles pass through early
this evening. Otherwise, monitoring a MVFR stratus deck to the
northwest of the state that may impact a few sites late tonight
and into Friday morning as steering flow will bring it into the
area. Have introduced MVFR cigs to northern Iowa to account for
this. Breezy wind will diminish below 12 kts overnight and turn
slightly more northwest on Thursday.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schultz/NWS Quad Cities
AVIATION...Donavon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
205 PM MST Thu Nov 9 2023
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION:
Items of focus for the forecast begin with the skiff stretching
from the Opheim Plateau to the Big Sheep Hills for this evening.
Since the morning update, there hasn`t been much more of a change.
The next focus is on Saturday Night with a potential high wind
event. Currently the latest forecast is coming in just short of
criteria around 50 to 55 mph over Zortman, with only the top of
the Little Rockies breaking event criteria. This may however
still have an impact on Highway 191 if winds ramp ups just a
little more. In discussion with TFX, both of our CWAs are looking
at the potential across higher elevations and a Watch is
anticipated with this afternoon package for southwest Phillips
county during Sunday morning from Midnight to 9AM.
The final area of focus is on the Tuesday night forecast
breakdown point. This appears to happen as there is a trough over
the northeast Pacific Ocean running from the Gulf of Alaska down
to off the coast of California. The trough begins to split into
two parts and the northern portion just off the coasts of British
Columbia and the Pacific Northwest is having difficulty being
resolved among the big three model ensembles. Each solution
grouping appears to be attached to one of the three primary
operational models which means that the difference appears to come
down to how physics packages are handling the data. This however
also produces quiet a range between these three solutions and
lowers confidence in the forecast to well below average beyond
this point. The average of the whole collective lowers temps a
degree or two or three each day afterward, but each cluster
contains either a massive drop off with the GFS, or a slight warm
up with the EC, or a steady state in the Canadian. Bottom line,
expect large changes to future forecasts beyond this point and
confidence here on is low. GAH
MORNING 1000AM UPDATE:
Changes for the morning first focused on getting the MVFR low
level stratus deck that has set up across the east into the hourly
Sky grids for today for the aviation community.
The second focus was placed on a snow skiff this evening come
down from canada in northwest flow that begins over the Opheim
Plateau and moves quickly down and across the big Sheeps before
exiting to North Dakota by early Friday morning. The ensembles
previously did not have this features for the majority which has
now flipped. Perhaps up to 1 inch is possible with this brief
passage in a heaviest band, but most spots will bring barely
anything and the remainder on the ground should quickly melt off
by tomorrow afternoon. GAH
MORNING DISCUSSION:
Current radar imagery from KGGW and KTFX show an elongated band
of light snow extending from about the Havre area, into the Little
Rockies, and southeast towards Glendive. 850 hPa analysis from
RAP mesoanalysis still shows 850mb CAA continue to move through
northeast Montana. This, coupled with a narrow area of 700 hPa
frontogenesis, is the main reason for the snow band enhancement.
Latest images from the Lindsay Divide site show snow at times
becoming more moderate, though with winds in this area still
gusting close to 25 mph, it is possible that it makes the snowfall
rate to be higher. Adjusted PoPs for this morning`s grids to
account for any lingering snowfall associated with this band, with
a general end of any precipitation by mid-morning. Winds along
Fort Peck Lake have gusted as high as 35 mph early this morning,
but given that this ob was from near atop the dam, unsure if any
of that is making to the surface of the lake. Obs from The Pines
shows that most sustained winds have been around 20 mph or less
recently, so this and a general trend of subsiding winds through
tonight have led me to hold off any Lake Wind Advisory issuance.
Tonight, a similar flow aloft with an embedded disturbance,
frontogenetic forcing, and slight jet streak enhancement may lead
to similar narrow bands of light snow/flurries. After that, the
last shortwave trough to move through the region will be late
Friday night and into Saturday. At the surface, an Alberta Clipper
low pressure system will move across the Canadian Prairie, and
generally stay north, providing northeast Montana with an increase
in winds due to a tightening pressure gradient. Probability for
greater than 40 mph wind for a 24-hr period ending Monday 06Z
shows a broad area of 50-80% across much of northern Montana.
Higher elevations such as the Little Rockies have a low (10-20%
chance) of greater than 55 mph. The biggest factor in the
efficiency of achieving these high gusts will be how much mixing
will occur overnight. This will continue to be discussed with
upcoming shifts for consideration of any headlines for
Saturday/Saturday night.
From Sunday, an upper-level ridge builds over much of the Rockies,
with the ridge axis moving slowly eastwards toward the Upper
Mississippi Valley. This will generally keep most locations above
normal for temperatures across northeast Montana.
-Enriquez
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED: 1930Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR (brief MVFR in snow shower)
DISCUSSION: Low MVFR stratus current exists across the far east
and is impacting KSDY and KGDV. This stratus clearing line
currently resides between KOLF and KSDY and is expected to slowly
exit east. The last terminal of KSDY should be clear by roughly
21-22Z this afternoon.
Another snow showers skiff is expected to move through the area
this evening from roughly 01-09Z. KOLF is the most likely to be
impacted and has appeared as a PROB30 in the TAFs. KGGW and KSDY
may be affected, but chances are too low to appear in the TAFs at
all. The main impact of this would be a brief visibility drop to
MVFR in light snow with the passage.
WIND: Northwest winds at 10-15 kts through the afternoon. Becoming
light and variable in the evening except for KGGW which will be
E to SE at roughly 5-10 kts tonight. Wind will then pick up to SE
at 5 to 15 kts after sunrise through Friday.
GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
Southwest Phillips.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MST Thu Nov 9 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Morning)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Thu Nov 9 2023
NW flow is prevalent across the area with an embedded shortwave
located across northeast Colorado. Within this shortwave a slight
chance for showers and sprinkles have been introduced into the
forecast, however due to dry low levels as seen in RAP soundings,
am currently thinking that sprinkles would be most likely. An
eastern extent of potential sprinkles/virga is occurring which
looks to be the effects of isentropic ascent over the area. Some
inverted v soundings are present which would be responsible for
brief pockets of 25-35 mph wind gusts associated with any
sprinkle/shower. For the remainder of the day thinking that
temperatures will remain steady in the 50s and low 60s. Winds look
to be rather steady as well, but those that are out of the cloud
cover can expected bouts of deep mixing with sporadic gusts of
20-25 knots.
For tonight, clouds will slowly clear across the area. Winds will
become light and variable which will set up the potential for strong
radiation cooling to occur. Current forecasted temperatures are in
the low to mid 20s CWA wide; those in lower lying valleys may fall
into the teens by sunrise.
Friday, split upper level flow will be present across the Plains;
however at the surface a trough will be present. The troughing will
lead to SW winds gusting 30-35 mph. SW surface winds with troughing
typically do support warmer than forecast temperatures and lower dew
points so I went ahead and warmed the corridor of breeziest surface
winds and dropped dew points within that area to capture this. No
guidance is currently catching on to the potential warmer
temperatures which is interesting given that skies will be clear so
additional mixing can occur and further help warm temperatures as
well. With all of this in mind do think that at least elevated fire
weather can be expected for locales south of I-70 where the
lowest RH overlaps with the strongest winds; never the less with
the dryness of the past few months anywhere could have the
potential for wildfire spread given the winds.
Friday night, a surface low across New Mexico advects upper level
moisture across the area given the SW winds. Increased cloud cover
and perhaps low stratus and low level wind shear for aviation
purpose currently looks to be the most clear cut hazard at this
time. Given the expected thickness of the clouds did raise up
temperatures into Saturday morning for SE portions of the area into
the low 40s.
With weak
The New Mexico low gets absorbed in with upper level troughing on
Saturday. Clearing skies from west to east throughout the day is
currently expected with highs in the 60s across the area; if the
cloud cover does linger a bit longer then temperatures may be a
bit to warm especially across the east. Drier air then works in
from the NW with Yuma county currently forecast to fall into the
mid teens so will need to keep an eye on fire weather potential as
we work into the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1202 PM MST Thu Nov 9 2023
Dry conditions will prevail through the long-term.
The Tri-State area will remain under split flow and a weak ridge
throughout the long-term. This will lead to persistent dry
conditions that will elevate fire weather conditions. However, the
days forecast to have lower RH values (teen RH) will also be less
windy than the days with stronger winds mixing the boundary layer.
The most at risk location for elevated fire weather conditions will
be along and west of highway 25.
A gradual warming trend is expected with highs in low to upper 60s
Sunday and by Thursday, we will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with temperatures ranging
from the mid 20s to low 30s Sunday night and low 30s to low 40s
Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 221 PM MST Thu Nov 9 2023
Northerly component to winds are forecast for each site through
the evening hours before becoming southerly around or just before
sunrise. Skies will clear, although some lingering mid clouds are
possible around GLD in wake of the passing wind shift. As diurnal
mixing ensues Friday mid morning wind gusts around 25 knots are
forecast. VFR conditions are however forecasted to continue
through this TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
819 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
There was not much change in the forecast for tonight other than
to adjust min temps a bit and increase dewpoints slightly. We have
also placed in areas of fog for northeast FL mainly along and
east of Highway 301 using HREF guidance. This is where some dense
fog is possible.
For the marine forecast, little to no change except to add some
patchy fog near the coast Friday morning. Dewpoints have climbed
up to 68-72 deg at the northeast FL coast so the fog potential
has increased.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
High cloud coverage continues to slowly increase tonight as
surface high pressure ridge in the region slides further SE into
the Western Atlantic with slightly milder temps expected in the
mid/upper 50s inland SE GA, around 60F inland NE FL and
lower/middle 60s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. Patchy dense
fog expected once again across inland areas late tonight/early
Friday morning with better chances across portions of NE FL around
sunrise.
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
High pressure retreats further into western Atlantic Friday into
Saturday as a cold front dips southeastward into the SE US.
Mostly sunny skies, lingering dry air and warm southwesterly flow
ahead of the front will bring the potential for record high temperatures
on Friday with highs in the low to upper 80s. Warm air advection
ahead of the approaching front will keep overnight lows mostly in
the 60s on Friday night, with fog potential during the predawn
hours on Saturday for inland NE FL. Friday will be the last dry
day before rain chances return for SE GA and coastal NE FL.
Isolated to widely scattered showers along the weakening frontal
boundary will enter SE GA Saturday morning and slowly shift
southeastward through the day. A weak afternoon sea breeze may
develop bringing a few showers to coastal NE FL. Rainfall amounts
are anticipated to be light. The front will stall across the
FL/GA border by Saturday night as upper troughing lifts away into
New England. Strong surface ridging building over the Great Lakes
in the wake of this frontal boundary will begin to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard by Saturday afternoon and evening, with
strengthening northeasterly winds expected along the I-95
corridor. A north- south temperature gradient is expected due to
the stalling front with highs around 70 north to the mid 80s
south and lows in the low 50s north to mid 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
Strong high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region on
Sunday will gradually weaken as it shifts southward into the mid-
Atlantic region into mid-week. Stalled frontal boundary draped
over the FL/GA border will shift southward towards central FL on
Sunday as a passing shortwave trough squashes ridging over the FL
peninsula southward. Continued west-southwesterly flow will cause
a weak overrunning pattern bringing light rain across much of the
area. Gusty north-northeasterly winds continue into mid-week with
strong high pressure to the north and coastal troughing over the
nearshore waters. Meanwhile, trough embedded within the southern branch
of the jet stream may then migrate along the northern Gulf coast
towards midweek, which could potentially result in another round
of overrunning/ isentropic lift across our area by Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Below normal temperatures gradually return
to normal by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
Additional low level moisture this evening compared to yesterday,
per satellite imagery, and will continue into Friday. This will
result in generally higher probabilities of low clouds and some
fog for early Friday morning. In fact, both the SREF and HREF have
increased the probabilities of IFR vsby and cigs the past couple
of runs for northeast FL, but the HRRR is less consistent from
run to run. Have opted to increase the chances of low vsby and
cigs for late tonight and Friday morning. Current have IFR and
LIFR forecast for JAX and VQQ early in the morning, with MVFR for
rest of the northeast FL TAFs, but prevailing VFR for SSI where a
brief MVFR vsby is still possible near 12z. Fog and stratus
should lift and dissipate by about 15z with multilayered clouds
expected rest of Friday. A couple of models suggest a light shower
or two late afternoon, but probabilities are less than 15 percent
so left out any VCSH for now. Light to calm sfc winds tonight
becoming south to southwest again on Friday, with sea breeze
expected at SGJ and SSI in the mid to late aftn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
Light and variable winds around 10 knots or less with local sea breeze
along the Atlantic Coast is expected through Friday night. Cold
frontal passage expected Saturday morning with increasing NE flow
through the weekend to Small Craft Advisory levels as High
pressure over the Carolinas continues to wedge southward and
tightens the pressure gradient over the local waters. Low pressure
and coastal trough development along the frontal boundary on
Sunday will produce North to Northeast winds of at least 20 to 25
knots with seas building to 7 to 10 feet. Early next week on
Monday and Tuesday, even as frontal boundary presses well south of
the local waters, expect NE winds to continue at Small Craft
Advisory levels with elevated seas in the 6 to 9 feet range.
Rip Currents/Surf/Coastal Flooding Potential: Moderate risk of rip
currents will linger through the end of the week, before the
onshore flow pushes rip current risk to High over the weekend as
surf builds to 4-6 ft by Sunday with potential High Surf Advisory
conditions on Monday with breakers of 5-7 ft. The increasing
onshore flow through the weekend and approach of the New Moon on
Monday will likely lead to Elevated water levels along the
Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River Basin by Sunday with Minor
Tidal/Coastal Flooding possible during high tides on Monday and
possibly continuing well into next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023
Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites for today
and Friday:
Thurs 11/9 Fri 11/10
------------------------
Jacksonville 88/1986 84/2002
Gainesville 88/1986 87/1942
Alma, GA 87/1986 83/2006
Craig Airport 85/2018 84/1979
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 55 83 62 72 / 0 0 10 30
SSI 62 81 64 75 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 59 84 64 78 / 0 10 0 10
SGJ 63 83 66 80 / 10 10 0 20
GNV 59 86 64 83 / 10 10 0 10
OCF 60 86 64 85 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
547 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered snow showers or flurries across northern/central MN and
northern WI this afternoon, but no accumulation or impacts
expected. Winds start to decrease after sunset.
- Warm and dry conditions remain on track for next week with highs
near 60s.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Early afternoon water vapor and visible
satellite imagery with surface obs showed a potent little shortwave
across northwest Minnesota. This shortwave together with cold air
atop the boundary layer had enough lift for clouds and a few
rain/snow showers across eastern South Dakota and northern Minnesota.
As it moves southeast across the region, it will weaken as it
becomes sheared out, but not before bringing small chances for
rain/snow showers or flurries across the northern part of the area.
No accumulation or impacts is expected. In addition, west/northwest
winds were gusting to near 30 mph, but these will start to decrease
toward sunset as we lose our peak heating.
On Friday high pressure will build across the region, which will
allow winds to remain light and eventually go calm toward evening.
Despite the surface high, low clouds will persist for much of the day
before clearing out Friday evening and overnight. The light winds and
clearing skies will lead to a chilly night across the region, with
lows generally in the 20s. This chilly air mass will keep
temperatures cool again on Saturday, but warm air advection will
commence as winds become southeast. This will lead to increasing
clouds and perhaps a light rain showers Saturday evening/night, but
for now kept the forecast dry.
NEXT WEEK...A stout upper level ridge will build across the central
CONUS next week, with temperatures warming well above the seasonal
average for most of next week. Highs will generally by in the 50s,
with lower 60s possible in the warmer spots. Breezy southwest winds
and low humidity could lead to elevated fire weather conditions
during the afternoon, but for now it looks like just something to
monitor in case the forecast trends drier.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Nov 9 2023
Wind gusts have gradually started to decrease in intensity across
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Main forecast concern for the terminals over
the coming hours will be the arrival of an MVFR stratus deck that is
moving in from the northwest. Have already observed a drop to MVFR
at KAXN. Opted to drop the ceilings to MVFR at all terminal sites,
including KRWF and KMKT, where the latest RAP forecast guidance hints
at the potential for high end MVFR conditions early Friday. Most
terminals are forecast to remain MVFR through the TAF period.
KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind W 5-15kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Strus