Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/09/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
817 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
High pressure was analyzed around 1019 mb over northeast FL with
light to calm winds over the forecast area. This high will not
move much into Thursday morning. Only a few high clouds over
the area at this time, but will increase a bit into Thursday.
Guidance shows potential for patchy to areas of fog, which appears
reasonable based on the fact that dewpoints have increased several
degrees compared to 24 hrs ago, mainly over northeast FL. The
higher threat for some stratus and fog, using HRRR and HREF progs,
looks to be near the far western areas so have bumped up fog coverage
for the Suwannee Valley area early Thursday morning. The forecast
remains on track with little overall change with a slight
decrease in the min temps based on the past couple of days.
For the marine forecast, little change with just a slight
decrease in winds and seas tonight.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 223 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Surface high pressure over the area will slowly shift into the
Western Atlantic with ridge axis just south of the NE FL/SE GA
region Tonight. Sunny skies still on track this afternoon along
with above normal temperatures into the lower to middle 80s
inland, while weak east coast sea breeze development will hold
Atlantic beach highs in the upper 70s as it pushes slowly inland
later today. A few high clouds push in aloft from the West-
Southwest tonight but still overall Mostly Clear conditions as
initial high clouds should be fairly thin and not much impact
expected to overnight lows which will continue below NBM guidance
by 2-4 degrees with Min Temps around 50F over inland areas and
generally in the mid/upper 50s along the Atlantic Coast. Models
have continued to struggle with late night fog formation this
week, with very little fog this morning (likely due to the lack of
recent rainfall), but the transition to a light Southwest
steering flow tonight in the boundary layer should add enough low
level moisture to produce more patchy/areas of fog towards
Thursday morning, mainly across NE FL with some locally dense fog
possible around sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 223 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
High pressure will be centered to the east Thursday. The front will
move further away to the east Thursday night, as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Patchy fog will be possible Thursday
night, but widespread is not expected due to forecast cloud
coverage. This front will slowly slide south into the area Friday
into Friday night. Moisture is limited with the front itself, so
not much precipitation, if any, is expected.
The boundary will stall just to the south Saturday into Saturday
night, as an inverted trough develops over the coastal waters. The
combination of the proximity of the front, and the added convergence
from the trough will increase chances for showers.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday night. With the
boundary near area Saturday, temperatures across SE GA will fall
below normal, whereas above normal readings will continue for NE FL.
Temperatures will generally be above normal Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
High pressure will build from the north on Sunday, helping to push
the front a little further to the south. However, the inverted
trough will continue to linger near the coast, keeping chances for
showers in the forecast.
The high is expected to push the front further to the south Monday
into Monday night, with a period of dry weather expected. A surge of
winds down the coastal waters will accompany the building high, with
gusty winds along the coast early next week.
Long range models diverge in the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame,
with GFS building the high south across the area, and the ECMWF
lifting a low across the Gulf, which pushes rain back across the
area. The GFS has been most consistent with this later period, so
will trend toward this drier solution, but confidence in the
precip forecast in this later portion of period is not high.
Temperatures will trend below normal this period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
For late tonight patchy fog is the main aviation concern and is forecast
with some MVFR vsby possible for JAX, GNV, and CRG, with more confidence
in fog down to LIFR for VQQ. Fog should dissipate by 12z-13z. Mostly
clear skies otherwise, except for some cirrus at times through Thursday.
A bit more cumulus clouds near 5 kft expected on Thursday, mainly
over northeast FL. Light/variable to calm winds tonight, become light
southwest to west by 15z Thursday. A sea breeze expected for to push
through SSI, CRG, and SGJ for Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EST Wed Nov 8 2023
High pressure will be centered to the east through Thursday night. A
cold front will slowly move south into area and stall Friday into
Friday night. This front will stall just to the south over the
weekend, as an inverted trough develops over the waters. High
pressure will build south toward the area early next week, which
will push this front further south. A surge of winds will move down
the coastal waters, as the high builds in, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions beginning Saturday afternoon, and continuing next
week.
Rip Currents: SE GA Low Today, Moderate Thursday
NE FL Moderate through Thursday
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 50 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 57 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 52 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 52 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 55 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
531 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
Key Messages:
1. Dense fog is likely to develop again across portions of
southeast LA and southern MS on Thursday morning. Smoke from the
wildfire in New Orleans East could reduce visibility to less than
100 feet across small portions of east Orleans and St. Tammany
parish during morning commute hours.
2. Dense fog potential is much more uncertain on Friday morning as
increasing cloud cover and precipitation ahead of the cold front
could make it more difficult for smoke to get trapped and for
dense fog to form.
Surface high pressure remains centered off to the east allowing
for gradual moisture return with dew point temperatures now in the
60s almost areawide. A broad surface trough of low pressure moving
through the midwest has slightly tightened the pressure gradient
prompting daytime wind speeds to increase to 10-15 mph but should
decrease as the trough quickly departs and the gradient weakens
tonight. Despite the morning fog and upper-level cirrus, temps
have reached the low to mid 80s with exception to coastal areas.
The upper-level cirrus driven by the weak shortwave trough axis
centered currently near Sabine Pass will continue eastward
tonight bringing in drier mid-level air overnight that will
increase clearing overhead at least for the northern half of the
CWA where more efficient radiational cooling could occur as winds
decrease. This coupled with moisture advection will aid in
development of dense fog tonight across parts of southeast LA and
southern MS, much like this morning. Latest RAP model soundings
for Thursday morning show a similar strong temperature inversion
near the surface which will result in trapping of wildfire smoke
near New Orleans East in addition to moisture which will make
super fog a threat yet again for the stretch of I-10 between I-510
and Irish Bayou. The plume direction in the overnight hours will
be slightly more northerly toward the Twin Span bridge but as the
sun comes up winds will quickly become more easterly pushing the
dense smoke plume over Lake Pontchartrain and potentially create
visibility hazards on the Causeway bridge like we observed this
morning. After sunrise, areas of dense fog will dissipate with
the only remaining concern coming from the smoke plume over the
lake as it will take slightly longer to mix that out.
Upper-level cloud coverage will gradually increase through the
day on Thursday as the prevailing southwest flow and mid-level
troughing over northern Mexico and SW CONUS encroaches. The
surface front surging through the plains will put on the brakes as
it approaches the area given mid-level southwest flow will
continue to favor an onshore regime that will put up some
resistance to the frontal boundary. Regardless, increasing
surface convergence and gradually falling heights will induce
increasing lower clouds and showers beginning on Thursday night
and continuing into Friday.
With the complexity of cloud coverage and showers impeding
radiational influences, any fog development on Friday will have to
come from almost a purely advective regime which is indicated by
the deeper layer moisture and warm air advection profile present
in RAP forecast soundings for Friday morning. With less cooling
ongoing at the surface overnight, the steep inversion observed
through midweek will be less pronounced which could keep the
wildfire smoke from being trapped as much near the surface.
However, strong uncertainty still exists regarding these finer
details at this range. Patchy dense fog is plausible especially in
areas that stay clearer on the MS coast, but elsewhere is very
low confidence and low probability currently which is portrayed
by the less than 10% ensemble probs for dense fog on Friday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
By Friday morning, a cold front should be moving into the
northwestern portion of the local area. Still looks like upper level
winds will be mostly parallel to the surface boundary, so it is
expected to be moving slowly and should stall out somewhere around
the coast as it loses its push from the upper shortwave. Above the
surface, the 850mb front lags behind and winds continue to keep a
southerly component to them through Saturday. With the front stalled
near the coast, these more onshore winds above the surface will ride
up and over the front and should provide enough isentropic lift to
result in at least isolated to scattered showers continuing through
Saturday. Whether this activity continues into Sunday will depend on
when and if the 850mb front slides south of the coast. Guidance
remains split on when/if that will happen, so have stuck pretty
close to the NBM which favors slightly higher POPs through Sunday.
Despite the slightly higher POPs lingering through the weekend,
overall still not expecting a ton of rainfall, with the axes of
heaviest rain currently expected to be west and south of the local
forecast area closer to the surface boundary and a developing low
over the western Gulf. Through Sunday, the forecast calls for
generally one half inch to one inch of rain. While this is obviously
better than nothing, it won`t do much with respect to the ongoing
drought.
By Monday a weak surface low is expected to begin developing over
the western Gulf on the tail end of the stalled boundary. This low
will then move east/northeastward to another fast moving upper
shortwave moving through the middle Mississippi Valley with stronger
high pressure building in behind it. The local weather will greatly
depend on exactly where this low moves. If it stays over the Gulf we
may see some overrunning precipitation with cooler temperatures. If
it moves farther north over land areas, there could be more rain and
warmer temperatures. Given a bifurcation in the ensemble member
solutions, will still pretty close to the NBM for the time being,
knowing that the forecast will likely need to be adjusted in one
direction or the other over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
VFR conditions are expected during the day, but another round of early
morning to mid morning fog concerns is in the forecast again. Fog
which could be very dense at times could bring terminals down to
the IFR/LIFR range especially around 8z to 14z. Terminals downwind
nearby of any current wildfires (e.g. ASD) could also see further
localized reductions of visibility due to smoke. Once the fog
starts to dissipate mid to late morning, conditions should
improve and no ceiling/vis concerns are expected for the rest of
the forecast period. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
Onshore flow will remain as the surface high sits off to the east
of the coastal waters. Dense fog and smoke is expected to impact
portions of eastern and northern Lake Pontchartrain due to the
smoke plume associated with the New Orleans East wildfire which
could quickly reduce visibility to less than 1 NM. Perhaps a
small threat of thunderstorms over the open waters Friday into the
weekend. Don`t anticipate any winds greater than 15 knots until
perhaps Saturday into Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 81 61 70 / 0 0 50 60
BTR 61 84 65 79 / 0 0 40 50
ASD 58 80 63 79 / 0 0 40 50
MSY 64 80 68 79 / 0 0 50 40
GPT 61 78 64 76 / 0 0 40 50
PQL 56 81 61 79 / 0 0 20 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CST Thursday for
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065-071-076-078>086.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CST Thursday for
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...TJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
613 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
Through Thursday night...
Key forecast concerns...
* Showers and perhaps an isolated storm this afternoon through mid-
evening
* Increasing winds tonight into Thursday with 30 to 40 mph gusts
possible Thursday afternoon
A surface low continues to advance across central Illinois this
afternoon with a warm front extending east-northeastward along the
I- 80 corridor. The current orientation of the front has
developed a north-south temperature gradient across the area with
low to mid-50s north of the front while areas to south sit in the
low to mid-70s. Showers have started to develop across
northwestern Illinois along the 850 mb front with additional
showers expected to develop along the warm front as the surface
low moves further into our area. While most of the precipitation
will occur in the form of light to moderate showers, RAP
mesoanalysis is showing around 250 to 300 J/kg of MUCAPE over
northern Illinois which may allow a couple of embedded
thunderstorms to take shape through early evening as well. As the
low moves into Indiana this evening, the warm front is expected to
get shoved back southward by the 850 mb front which will
gradually taper showers from northwest to southeast through the
mid to late evening hours (~10 PM to midnight CST).
Winds will begin to increase in the wake of the cold front as the
pressure gradient rapidly tightens (6 to 8 mb pressure rise per 6
hr) overnight into Thursday morning. While gusts overnight may be
somewhat tempered over land due to the lack of mixing, they are
expected to increase Thursday morning as mixing increases. The
westerly gusts are forecast to reach into the 30 to 35 mph range
during the afternoon with the possibly for higher gusts near 40
mph if deeper mixing is achieved. However, the pressure gradient
is expected to weaken late Thursday afternoon which will allow
winds and gusts to gradually subside Thursday evening.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and clear skies can be
expected for Thursday and Thursday night. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the low to mid-50s with overnight lows in the
low to mid-30s heading into Friday morning.
Yack
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
Friday through Wednesday...
A rather quiet period of weather is in store late this week
through next week as loosely zonal Pacific flow across the
northern CONUS transitions into an expansive ridge across the
central CONUS by early next week. +2SD 500 hPa heights and 850 hPa
temps running 10C degrees or more above normal across the north-
central CONUS will support dry and unseasonably conditions for the
western Great Lakes region next week. Other than a rather small
chance of a few WAA-forced high-based showers brushing our area
to the north late Saturday night into Monday, no precip is
expected through the forecast period.
Kluber
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Key messages:
* Showers through early evening
* Trending lower cigs with periods of IFR and some LIFR with and
behind the showers
* Winds out of the northwest will turn more westerly, then increase
overnight with stronger gusts expected by Thursday afternoon,
potentially around 30 knots
Thunderstorm coverage is on the decrease and even the line of
showers west of the terminals at 00z TAF issuance time is not
really holding together too well. Opted to remove mention of VCTS,
but did lower CIGs in the TEMPO group based on upstream trends of
LIFR in the 300-500 ft range. The back edge of this lower
coverage seems to be somewhere around the IA/IL border, so we may
end up needing to amend to keep more than two hrs of these lower
conditions.
Quieter conditions are expected through the remainder of the fcst
period, though west winds do pick up by late morning through mid
afternoon tomorrow, possibly gusting to around 30 knots at times.
Lenning
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...Winthrop Harbor to Gary IN until 11 AM
Thursday.
Gale Watch...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...11 AM Thursday to 6
PM Thursday.
Small Craft Advisory...Gary to Michigan City IN until 6 PM
Thursday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
923 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
Cold front as of 03z was located near a Gainesville, TX to Fort
Smith, AR line and continues to make very slow progress south and
east this evening. Latest 12z NAM as well as HRRR output takes the
front south and east towards the I-30 Corridor of NE TX into SW AR
by 12z Thu which looks very similar to where the current forecast
has the front in the morning. Slight chance to low end chance pops
are currently forecast along and ahead of the boundary after
midnight towards sunrise in the morning which looks good as well.
Latest IR Imagery showing mid level cloud cover streaming north
and east out of Central TX and into NE TX with stratocumulus deck
beginning to pool just ahead of the cold frontal boundary across
the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR.
Concerning temperatures, forecast lows are very close to current
observations in a few locations late this evening but with the
rapid return of cloud cover witnessed on IR Imagery, the fall in
temperature should flatten out in the warm sector ahead of the
frontal boundary through sunrise in the morning.
Therefore...no changes are necessary this evening.
13
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
The low stratus from this morning has finally starting to lift
across the region. This has played a major role in today`s temps
as locations underneath the low clouds have mostly remained in the
70s today, while the remainder of the region has climbed into the
80s. In fact, some areas across NE & Central Louisiana have
climbed into the upper 80s, which is around record high territory.
If not for the cloud cover, we would probably see more records
across the region.
Above normal temperatures will remain overnight, as lows will only
fall into the 60s areawide. However, a big change is coming to the
region starting Thursday morning. An upper trough and associated
cold front will move through the region on Thursday, bringing
widespread rain chances. Can`t rule out 1 to 2 inches across areas
north of a line from Lufkin Texas to Shreveport to El Dorado AR.
Behind the front, much cooler temperatures will push into the
region along with continued widespread rain chances. Overnight
temps Thurs night/Fri morning will range from the upper 40s north
of I-20, to lower to mid 50s across the remainder of the region.
/20/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
Unsettled weather is anticipated to remain for most of the long-
term, as our region comes under the influence of two distinct
systems. The first is the cold front that we`ve been mentioning the
last few days. This cold front will bring some much needed rainfall
to the region, as well as much colder temperatures into the weekend.
There is still some uncertainty in just how much rain we`ll see
across the region, with current thinking still mostly between 1-2
inches area-wide. Some locations could see locally heavier rainfall,
resulting in isolated 3 inches. Unfortunately, it looks like these
areas will remain to the north of where we really need the rain. In
turn, look for drought conditions to go relatively "unbusted" where
it`s most needed.
Temperatures should remain seasonal behind the cold front, before SW
flow returns to the region by Sunday. This will allow temperatures
to rebound into the upper-60s, and rain chances to return to the
forecast. This SW flow will be associated with a closed low pressure
moving to the east towards the middle of the week. If this low pulls
north, we could be looking another another healthy round of rain
towards the middle of next workweek. However, that solution still
has plenty of time between then and now, with plenty of uncertainty
in between.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 PM CST Wed Nov 8 2023
VFR conditions currently prevailing across our airspace but that
will be changing later tonight and through the day Thursday with
the arrival of a cold front. The frontal boundary will be near or
south of an ELD/TXK/TYR line by 09/18z and near a MLU/SHV/GGG
line by 09/21z and through all but the LFK terminal by 10/00z
according to latest progs. Possibility of MVFR ceilings will exist
in advance of the boundary with ceilings quickly deteriorating to
IFR and perhaps LIFR in the wake of the boundary with prevailing
showers. Also, look for MVFR VSBYS with those prevailing showers
as well along with a wind shift to the NNE near 10kts or less with
the frontal passage.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 75 52 59 / 10 80 100 80
MLU 64 77 52 60 / 10 70 90 80
DEQ 58 64 46 61 / 30 90 90 40
TXK 63 67 47 57 / 20 100 100 60
ELD 63 70 46 56 / 20 100 100 80
TYR 67 72 52 59 / 10 90 100 60
GGG 66 74 51 59 / 10 90 100 70
LFK 66 80 56 62 / 10 40 90 90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13