Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/07/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
858 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
Overall the forecast is in fine shape. Low cloud deck over the
northeast CWA continues to advect/expand to the south and west,
and this has been depicted well be guidance. Weak WAA overnight
could bring some light pcpn to the region post midnight, with pops
generally below 30 percent. Given the abundance of low clouds,
overnight lows may not fall below freezing, negating most
potential for freezing light pcpn.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 314 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
Key Messages:
- Chances (20-40%) for light rain showers late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Patches of light freezing rain possible (~20% or less).
- Low clouds and fog (patches/areas) expected for northern/eastern
portions of the CWA.
Stratus deck has held in place today, with little to no breaks,
although the clearing line has nudged back to the north. Latest runs
of the HRRR as well as a handful of hi-res models continue to show
the stratus expanding back southward tonight. There is also some
evidence for fog potential, and included that in the forecast where
models are most consistent in lowered visibility. As for overnight
lows, those are tricky, and it will play a part in precip types
tonight when potential for light showers will be passing through.
NBM lows are around freezing across the northeast CWA, but with the
stratus clouds in place, temps may not fall quite as low as
NBM/forecast values. Did nudge readings a bit towards warmer end
percentiles, but this was still cool enough to allow for some light
freezing rain into the Sisseton Hills region towards the wee hours
of the morning. Any accums appear to be minimal, with very little
impact. If clouds do, in fact, keep temps a bit higher than
forecast, freezing rain may be able to be removed from the forecast
altogether. Soundings reveal a rather large above-freezing layer
above the surface, but the sub-freezing layer is rather minimal and
may all come down to surface temperatures.
Precip threat looks to move off to the east Tuesday morning. Will
likely still be dealing with some areal coverage of stratus across
the region. Weak surface trough moves through with a wind shift
evident as the day progresses. Forecast highs range from the upper
40s to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry period will continue to persist with temperatures near
to slightly above normal.
- Windy conditions Wednesday into Thursday.
The main challenge in this forecast period will be track the
strength of the of a system moving through the region mid-week that
will generate some windy conditions as well as to resolve
uncertainties at the moment in a potential disturbance that may or
may not deliver some low end chances for precip toward the end of
the week.
Starting things off on Wednesday, both deterministic and ensemble
guidance are in fair agreement on a cold front passing through the
area in association with sfc low pressure centers located in
southern Manitoba/northern ND and MN as well as the Central Plains
and mid-Mississippi Valley. At this point, it doesn`t appear there
will be enough moisture in our area to produce any fropa induced
precip with the sfc lows north and south of the region. A tightening
pressure gradient during the day Wednesday and persisting into
Wednesday night and Thursday is going to potentially kick up west to
northwest winds gusting between 30mph to near 50mph on Wednesday.
This looks to especially be realized along and west of the James
Valley. NBM probabilities of reaching wind speeds of 40mph remain
highest(50% or higher) along and west of the Missouri Valley. So,
this will be a scenario we`ll have to track as these winds are
headline potential values. Thursday still looks to feature windy
conditions, but perhaps not as potent as Wednesday as the CAA
pattern looks to be a bit more stronger on Wednesday vs Thursday.
Still Thursday should produce wind gust up to 30-35mph CWA wind.
Guidance does begin to diverge on solutions toward the end of the
week going into the beginning of the weekend. Both deterministic and
their ensemble counterparts do agree to some extent on the upper
flow pattern initially showing a persistent upper trough across
south-central Canada and the north-central United States. The degree
of its strength differs between the GFS/GEFS in one camp and the
ECMWF/EC ENS and Canadian/GEPS in another camp. The GFS/GEFS
solution shows a less potent upper trough and exits it from our
region faster versus the EC/Canadian and their ensembles show a more
vigorous, persistent upper trough across our area. Now, at this
point this could mean the different between a dry forecast(GFS/GEFS)
and a chance of some scattered precip(ECMWF) on Friday. At this
point, our forecast(NBM) continues to indicate a dry forecast for
that time frame. Hopefully this will resolve in the coming days, but
at this time, some uncertainty remains.
The remainder of the period does look to feature a modifying trend.
Guidance agrees fairly well at this time showing an upper ridge
building across the western CONUS and western Canada and translating
into gradually eastward into our region by the end of the period
late in the weekend into early next week. This will mean a dry
forecast will prevail with temperatures likely warming above normal
for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 502 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to continue around KABR/KATY through
tonight, and then spread south and west overnight. Patchy fog is
also possible along with slight chances for pcpn after midnight.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
710 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
Key Messages:
- Drizzle, rain returns to the forecast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Accumulations will likely be on the low end (< 0.10")
but most will encounter wet weather.
- Seasonable, mostly dry beyond Wednesday.
MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
Confidence is increasing for light precipitation to spread across
the Upper Mississippi Valley late Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead
of a cold-frontal passage. Model soundings show saturated lower
levels with sufficient low-level ascent to support widespread
drizzle. The signal is strongest along and east of the Mississippi
River, but some models suggest the drizzle could form as far west as
I-35. This signal is also apparent in the HREF where there`s a 40-
70%+ chance for 0.01" of precipitation by 12z Wednesday. While
drizzle will not amount to much in terms of accumulation, it will
lead to reduced visibilities and a soggy start to Wednesday. At this
time temperatures look to remain above freezing for most. We will
need to monitor the temperature trends in north-central Wisconsin
where temperatures are closest to flirting with freezing. Periods of
wet weather continue throughout the day Wednesday before being
ushered out from west to east by the cold front.
LOOKING AHEAD:
High pressure builds in after the mid-week system. While some
uncertainty lingers regarding precipitation chances associated with
transient potential vorticity advection, the NBM and global models
continue to produce a dry forecast through the weekend. Temperatures
will become more seasonable in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
MVFR cigs will prevail at KRST and KLSE overnight and into the
morning with forecast soundings showing persistent low-level
saturation through the morning hours. Some questions remain if
any scattering may occur, the 06.12z HREF probs suggest some
scattering out could occur but based on current observations, the
expected trend is for minimal scattering at both TAF sites. There
is some possibility of IFR cigs at KRST overnight with the 06.21z
RAP showing the saturated layer trying to sneak below the 1kft
threshold but opted to leave mention of IFR cigs out of the
current TAF issuance due to remaining forecast uncertainty. Winds
will decrease this evening to 5-10 kts at both TAF sites and will
swing from northwest to easterly overnight and through the
morning.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KAA
AVIATION...Naylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
830 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One more warm and dry day Tuesday.
- Cooler temperatures arrive Wednesday: Mountains/valleys can
expect 15-20 degree temperature drop and urban corridor and plains
nearly 15-25 degree temperature drop compared to Tuesday.
- Expect light to moderate snowfall amounts of 3-6 inches for the
mountains, valleys, and Palmer Divide starting late Tuesday
night through Thursday morning. Parts of the urban corridor
could experience light snowfall mainly Wednesday evening under 1
inch.
- A drying trend will occur Thursday afternoon into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
No changes needed for evening forecast update. Expect increasing
southwest flow aloft tonight with gusty winds over the mountains.
Mostly clear across the plains with mild overnight lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
West-southwest flow aloft will increase tonight and Tuesday ahead of
an upper level trough moving onto the West Coast. This will continue
to bring warm and dry conditions. For tonight, there will be slight
drying aloft which will cause clouds to slowly decrease. Under
the mostly clear skies and dry airmass, expect lows to fall into
the 30s to lower 40s. Highs Tuesday will be near to a couple
degrees warmer than today. This puts highs in the lower to mid
70s across northeast Colorado. It will be windy over the higher
terrain under the increasing flow aloft. There is a good amount of
uncertainty how far east of the foothills the westerly winds will
make it Tuesday afternoon. The HRRR shows the west winds nearly
making it to Kansas, while the GFS and ECMWF show a cold front
backdoor in and will be close to Denver by sunset. Generally
favor the less windy solution with HRRR having windy bias with
strong westerly flow aloft.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
A positive titled trough arrives across the Rockies Tuesday night
into Wednesday. An upper level jet will enhance southwesterly flow
along with increasing mid-level moisture. This system will bring
cooler temperatures across the region. Wednesday morning, a colder
frontal system decreases 700mb temperatures between -5 to -8 C
meaning expect afternoon highs between mid 40s to low 50s for the
urban corridor/ plains and low to mid 30s for the mountains and
valleys. Additionally, parts of the mountains and valleys will be
cold enough for snowfall but Wednesday afternoon majority of the
urban corridor and Palmer Divide can expect a rain snow mix until
late afternoon.
In terms of snowfall amounts, not overall impressed with the latest
model runs from this system. From a pure meteorological
standpoint of these factors such as: weak frontogenesis, weak
lapse rates between 4- 5 C/km, our upper level jet exiting the
region faster with each model run, and shallow layers of moisture
between 300-700mb with increasing drier air entering parts of the
urban corridor could lead to lower snowfall production thus this
forecast package is conservative on snowfall amounts. Areas above
10k ft in the mountains should remain between 3-7 inches. A few
cities along the urban corridor such as Fort Collins, Longmont,
and Firestone are likely to see amounts between trace and half an
inch through Wednesday evening. By Wednesday night, the jet shifts
east and snow should end by Thursday morning. Again, this forecast
package is leaning towards lower amounts because of the jet
exiting faster and unfavorable ingredients. Weak upslope will
favor places along the Palmer Divide Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning. By Thursday night, a weak upper level ridge
pattern enters into the state. Expect a few clouds and slight
warming for all areas through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 434 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
Tough wind forecast with weak surface low over Douglas county
which has developed a light north and northeast surface winds at
local terminals. Gradually the northerly winds will diminish and
shift back more southerly overnight. Big question for Wednesday
will be amount of westerly winds that develop in the afternoon,
but confidence is on the lower side.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
One more warm, dry, and windy/breezy day for Tuesday. Wind gusts
to 50 mph will be possible over the mountains and up 40 mph in the
foothills. For the plains, its uncertain if these stronger winds
will spread east off the higher terrain. The best chance for the
stronger winds across the lower elevations will be over and near
the Palmer Divide. Relative humidity will fall into the teens
across the lower elevations. Not enough confidence we will see
widespread gusty winds line up with relative humidities below 15
percent to issue a Red Flag Warning.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Entrekin
FIRE WEATHER...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
555 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
Have added fog into the forecast for mainly tomorrow morning for
eastern portions of the CWA. A similar fog setup compared to
yesterday morning looks to unfold, albeit a row or two of counties
further east). Fog on Monday morning did end up about a column of
counties further west than anticipated. Runs of the HRRR and
CONSSHORT are already hinting at this westward expansion of the
fog. As a result have added patchy fog into the forecast, will
continue to monitor trends through the evening to see if an
upgrade in wording is needed.
Have also upped wind gusts across Cheyenne county Colorado for
tomorrow afternoon as forecast soundings such as the RAP and GFS
suggest that wind gusts around 25 mph are possible during the
afternoon hours due to diurnal mixing. As a result near critical
fire weather conditions are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
For the short term period, fairly benign conditions are forecasted.
Tomorrow could see near record temperatures and some low chances for
Critical Fire Weather Conditions.
For the remainder of today, some high clouds will continue to move
over the area helping to keep temperatures where clouds are near 70.
the rest of the area is warming into the low to mid 70`s.
Tonight, the low developing over the Front Range will likely remain
near the Front Range which will help keep our winds west of Highway
83 around 10 mph through the night. Other areas may see winds become
calm with the pressure gradient across the region remaining fairly
low. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures will likely lower into
the 30`s with good radiational cooling. The exceptions will be
locations with more consistent cloud cover and/or higher winds which
may stay in the 40`s. There is a very low chance for fog east of
Highway 83 depending on when the winds lighten and if some moisture
can advect into the area. With the winds forecasted to lighten
closer to sunrise, it may be too late for any fog so I have not
included any at this time.
Tomorrow, a fairly warm and dry day is in store with slight ridging
aloft and the surface low pulling in air from the southwest.
Temperatures are forecasted to warm into the mid 70`s to 80`s with
the hotter temperatures generally south of I-70 in the warm sector
of the surface low. While the low will slight increase the pressure
gradient, the center of the low is forecasted to move over the area
which would actually weaken the winds during the afternoon hours. If
the winds do remain weak, then there is no chance for critical fire
weather conditions. If the low moves through faster, than the winds
could be strong enough for critical fire conditions on the back side
of the low. Looking at ensemble data, this looks to be less than a
20% chances so no current products sent out. With the limited
moisture available, weak forcing and delayed cooler air,
precipitation looks to be unlikely with the passage of the low.
Tomorrow night, the winds are forecasted to pick up to around 15 kts
in the wake of the low, but nothing that would cause a hazard. In
spite of the higher winds, some cold air advection is likely which
will help lower temperatures into the 30`s for most of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
This part of the forecast is not looking very promising for
precipitation. An upper level trough will move through the Plains
Wednesday, along with a cold front. Ensemble data is indicating
nearly all of the precipitation with the front will be west of the
forecast area. As such, am thinking the low chances for
precipitation in the far west are too high. Aside from the
precipitation remaining west of the forecast area, north winds will
become breezy on Wednesday behind the front.
During the latter half of the week a short wave ridge and a short
wave trough move through. Am not expecting any precipitation with
the shallow short wave trough due to it remaining north of the
forecast area.
Behind the trough a stronger upper level ridge will build over the
Central Plains. Ensemble data is indicating the ridge is looking
stronger. This will cause temperatures to gradually warm through
weekend.
On the warmer days for this period the relative humidity does fall
to near or below 20% for some of the forecast area. However winds
at this time are forecast to be too light for a fire weather
concern. Based on ensemble wind probabilities, Sunday may be the
next day to watch for fire weather based on the higher probability
of breezy winds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 338 PM MST Mon Nov 6 2023
SSE winds will be present at each terminal through the evening. A
weak shortwave will traverse west to east across the area this
evening and overnight allowing LLWS to be of concern again at each
site. Tomorrow a surface low develops across east Colorado
allowing winds to go light and variable for the majority of the
day Tuesday.
Some guidance does indicate some low level moisture advection
working into eastern portions of the forecast area around sunrise
Tuesday. It appears to be roughly a similar pattern as what
occurred Sunday morning regarding fog where dense fog set up a
little further west than what guidance suggested. Currently if fog
were to be a concern it would be for MCK; will let another round
of guidance come in and will make appropriate AMD if needed or
will use 06Z TAF to address it if confidence isn`t fully there.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
523 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
A surface trough across northern Oklahoma has allowed a downsloping
front to make it into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this
afternoon, with very warm temperatures on both sides of the front.
Temperatures should cool off rapidly after sunset out west and more
slowly to the east.
Tonight, winds will die down as the surface trough decays. Cirrus
clouds that are currently across northern Oklahoma should depart,
leaving clear and calm conditions favorable to the development of
radiation fog. RAP forecast soundings in the area show a shallow
saturated layer near daybreak. Given this, anticipate areas of fog
from Stillwater to Seiling and north, with areas of fog from
Chandler to Cheyenne and north. Visibilities may drop to 1/4 mile in
areas preferred for denser fog.
This fog may limit the expected warming tomorrow across the northern
1/3 of the forecast area, but we still expect potentially record-
setting November heat across western north Texas and southwest
Oklahoma. Models are not overly bullish on depicting the surface
trough feature that tends to lead to rampant downsloping during our
cool season, but with extremely warm 850 mb temperatures and cured
grasses/soils we should be able to mix upper 80s to low 90s to the
surface in this region. Further to the east, the weaker surface
troughing may limit the eastward progression of the hot, well-mixed
airmass, so highs are a couple of degrees cooler across central
Oklahoma than previously forecasted. This will still put
temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.
Elevated to near-critical fire danger will also be present across a
chunk of western Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, roughly coincident
with the regions that missed out on the widespread rains of October.
While a weaker surface trough will limit the magnitude of
southwesterly winds compared to usual cool season fire environments,
very low relative humidity and some downward mixing of stronger
winds aloft will still lead to those heightened conditions.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
The surface trough actually looks to be stronger Wednesday morning
and early afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front than it
does tomorrow. This could mean, if the front`s arrival into our
southern zones is delayed enough, that we could see another day of
near-record heat on Wednesday afternoon, particularly near and south
of the Red River. Fire danger could also be elevated across far
western Oklahoma near and ahead of the front, as surface winds will
be stronger on Wednesday with a tighter pressure gradient.
The front`s arrival on Wednesday will usher in yet another pattern
shift, as we revert back from "typical September" to much more fall-
like weather. A rain event across southern and maybe central
Oklahoma is looking likelier from Wednesday evening through early
Friday morning. This will be a split-flow environment with a wave
embedded within the southern stream. Global models are trending
slower and deeper with this feature across the Sonoran Desert on
Thursday, which would likely amplify the degree of cold advection at
the surface and also lead to a more northerly track of the axis of
greatest precipitation. Thunder also seems possible with much cooler
air aloft.
Once precipitation chances depart Thursday night/Friday morning, a
quiet and much more seasonable pattern will ensue. Highs in the 50s
to 60s can be expected for the coming weekend.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Nov 6 2023
Main impact will be fog tomorrow morning across parts of northern
Oklahoma, potentially IFR at times. Otherwise winds will remain
light and southerly to southwesterly through most of the TAF
period.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 55 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 49 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 57 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 44 89 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 49 82 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 60 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
715 PM PST Mon Nov 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds and cooler temperatures will be the most
notable effects with a system moving through the region today
through Wednesday. But there is potential for light precipitation,
including high-elevation snow, in Inyo County and central Nevada.
Dry conditions and a warming trend will return the second half of
the week.
&&
.UPDATE...Gusty winds across the area have eased in most locations
with the onset of nocturnal cooling and developing surface
inversions. However, gusty winds persist within the higher terrain
of western Clark and southern Nye Counties, and will persist into
the morning hours Tuesday as a strong belt of 40-60 knot 700mb flow
pushes through the region. In fact, recent HRRR runs have been
insistent that the strongest winds of the event along the eastern
ridgeline of the Spring Mountains will be in the early morning hours
Tuesday. As such, the wind advisory remains in effect for these
areas through 7 am.
The forecast is in good shape with no updates necessary.
-Outler-
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday.
Strong southwest winds aloft will continue through tonight over much
of our region as a large low pressure system swings into the Great
Basin from the Pacific Northwest. Gusts over 40 mph will primarily be
confined to the mountains, but some downslope enhancement in the lee
of the Spring Mountains will produce gusts over 40 mph in Red Rock
Canyon and the foothills on the far west of the of the Las Vegas
Valley. Another localized impact that occurred today was a
significant dust plume lofted from the Jean Dry Lake which was
apparently enhanced by the 4 kft MSL terrain between the Jean
Airport and the dry lake bead. The gusts 25 to 35 mph across most
valleys and deserts will diminish after sunset then southwest or
west winds gusting 20 to 30 mph will occur Tuesday across San
Bernardino, Clark and Mohave counties Wednesday. The axis of the low
pressure system will move southern Nevada Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning with an associated cold front and north winds
gusting 20-30 mph across across much of the region, except 30-40 mph
along the lower Colorado River Valley. Temperatures this afternoon
are within a couple degrees of record values in Las Vegas, but will
drop several degrees each day Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in
mid 60s to lower 70s in the deserts Wednesday afternoon.
A limited band of moisture will accompany the system and move across
the southern Sierra and central Nevada zones Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night leading to slight chances of precipitation mainly over
the mountains. Light snow or flurries will be possible as snow
levels drop to 5-6 kft MSL with the passing cold front.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.
A shortwave ridge will build in Thursday and Friday, but
temperatures will struggle to recover much with transient cloud
cover and strengthening nocturnal inversions at this point in the
year. An additional shortwave will push across the Western US by
Saturday but most of it`s energy shears apart as it pushes inland.
This is followed by another period of transient ridge building by
Sunday and Monday. This roller coaster of weather disturbances will
favor near to below normal temperatures through the period,
occasional gusty winds, and periods of mid and high cloud cover.
Looking beyond, several members of the GFS/ECMWF ensembles suggest
increasing chances of at least some rainfall during the week of Nov
13th-19th. This is in agreement with the CPC outlooks for the 8-14
day period which highlight the region with enhanced odds of above
normal precipitation. Long range clusters hint at some deeper West
Coast troughing becoming more probable during this time, so this
possibility bears close watching as it gets closer in time.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds sustained 15-20kts with
gusts between 28-32kts will continue through the afternoon before
diminishing by sunset. There will be some areas of dust originating
from the Jean Dry Lake bed that could potentially lower visibilities
on approach, but surface visibilities are not expected to be
impacted at the terminal. After sunset, gusts decrease and wind
direction turns to the south-southwest. High clouds remain through
the day at or above 25kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty south to southwest winds are expected across most
of the forecast area today. Peak gusts in the Las Vegas Valley
including KVGT and KHND will be between 30 and 35 knots this
afternoon, with the potential for increased turbulence in the west
valley off of the Spring Mountains. Turbulence is also possible on
the lee of the Sierra Nevada in the Owens Valley. Weaker gusts are
expected at terminals in eastern California, southern Nevada, and
northwest Arizona. Winds turn to the northeast at KBIH tonight with
the arrival of a cold front, which also brings precipitation chances
to the White Mountains and Sierra. Winds will decrease, but remain
southwest to west over most areas overnight with speeds 10-20kts.
There could be some increased turbulence off the Spring Mountains
affecting VGT and LAS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Gorelow
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