Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/05/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
621 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
The forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Low clouds and potential for fog across northern areas late
tonight.
- Small chances (20-30%) for light (<0.10") showers Sunday evening
across the northern CWA.
- Above normal temperatures through the weekend.
Been watching the stratus deck across ND creep southward all day,
and is currently nearing the ND/SD border, although progress has
nearly halted recently. Latest HRRR low cloud product, RAP
soundings, and hi-res ceiling output all continue to show these
clouds moving/developing southward slowly into northern SD during
the overnight hours. Meanwhile, mid and high clouds will also be
increasing from the northwest. There is some potential for fog
across the region as well, as soundings reveal rather moist low
levels with a good inversion. Will have to monitor satellite and
model trends this evening (given the recent halt) and adjust
accordingly.
Temperatures at 850mb today are generally from +4C to +8C across the
CWA, but on Sunday these numbers climb to around +8C to +14C. So,
much warmer air aloft moving into the area, along with decent
mixing. Will likely see a good portion of the CWA warm to 60 and
beyond on Sunday, but did not get too carried away with higher end
percentile temps, given the models` showing of abundant mid and high
cloud cover. Although, if there are any breaks/thinning in the cloud
cover of at least a few hours during the afternoon, highs could be
well into the 60s or even low 70s over the southwest CWA.
Broad surface low pressure also moves east across the area Sunday
afternoon/evening, bringing a switch to northwest winds and cold air
advection after 00Z Monday. It still appears the best chances for
showers with this system will be across ND, but will maintain
small/slight chances (20-30%) over the northern CWA. NBM probs for
measurable rainfall show generally around 20% or less over the
northern CWA. Certainly appears like a light rain event if anything
were to materialize south of the state line, with even 90th
percentile QPF values under a tenth of an inch over the northern CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Near to above average temperatures through midweek, with reduced
confidence at the end of the week into the weekend.
- Light precipitation possible Monday night through Tuesday night.
- Diverging ensemble solutions on weather conditions late in the
period.
Limited cold air advection through a majority of the forecast
period, except perhaps the tail end, along with 925 mb temps
favoring near to above average, surface temps through the week
should be near to above normal. High temperatures on Monday and
Tuesday should warm into the 40s and 50s, with cooler, but still
near average temps Wednesday into Thursday.
Dry weather appears likely through most of the long term portion of
the forecast. However, warm air advection pcpn will be possible, 15-
30% over the eastern half of the CWA late Monday night into Tuesday.
The deterministic GFS is showing a stronger signal for measurable
QPF during this time period, with the GEFS integrated water vapor
transport increasing as well. The warm air advection banded feature
could be fairly narrow, which may be why the NBM maintains low, non
measurable pops. While the p-type may be all rain, can not fully
rule out freezing rain ahead of the warm air advection.
Models and ensembles agree fairly well overall early in the period,
with divergence occurring Thursday through Friday. Models are
struggling with the depth of an upper level trough over the Great
Lakes region, and a building ridge over the northern Rockies. A
deeper trough, supported by 22-32% of ensembles would bring cooler
temperature, and perhaps windy conditions for the end of the work
week into the weekend. A secondary cluster supports a weaker trough,
which would keep temperatures near seasonal. The NBM mean keeps
temperatures near seasonal for the end of the work week and into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A wide swath of MVFR/IFR stratus continues to slowly creep south
toward the forecast area. It looks like KABR will be affected
after 6z. Confidence is lower in KMBG, but areas with no stratus
may fall in fog toward morning.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
732 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
...Updated Tonight Forecast Introducing Dense Fog...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
- Saturday Evening Update: Dense Fog Advisory early Sunday morning
for areas mainly between Highway 83 and 283.
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through next weekend.
- Unseasonably warm afternoons Sunday through Tuesday.
- Near record warmth Tuesday afternoon.
- Temperatures cool down closer to normal Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
The past 4 or 5 runs of the HRRR model have aligned with the
earlier morning runs of several of the CAMs (4km Nested NAM, WRF-
ARW, NSSL-WRF in particular) in depicting a north-to-south axis of
1/4 mile visibility in dense fog along the gradient in surface
dewpoint from upper 30s to mid 40s. In the early evening
observations, dewpoints in the 43-45F range were observed from
Dodge City to Liberal. A light east wind will gradually become
southerly by early Sunday morning, yet light enough to promote
radiational cooling down to the dewpoint. Probability of dense fog
development is high (80% confidence) with the only challenge being
the east-west positioning of the meridional axis of dense fog
development. The Dense Fog Advisory followed closely the 12Z and
18Z HREF axis of highest Probability of 1/4 mile visibility, which
is roughly between Highway 83 and Highway 283. The initial
issuance of the Dense Fog Advisory will extend east-to-west across
three columns of counties from the Oklahoma border to the south to
Scott City to Ness City to the north. Thanks WFO AMA for
coordination!
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted widespread midlevel
clouds across central and eastern Kansas, in response to a weak
shortwave diving southeast across the state. Cloud cover across the
eastern zones will erode this afternoon. Some modest cooling was
noted behind this shortwave, at least compared to Friday`s balmy
temperatures, but temperatures Saturday afternoon will still be well
above early November normals, warming easily through the 60s to near
70.
Mild once again tonight, with minimum temperatures sunrise Sunday
expected to be above freezing and above normal all zones. As light
winds trend southerly overnight, short term models agree moisture
advection will maintain dewpoints well into the 40s overnight and
Sunday morning, with lower 50s across eastern zones. This process
will deter radiational cooling, and as the boundary layer reaches
saturation, areas of stratus and/or fog will develop, particularly
east of US 283. Consensus of short term guidance suggests fog will
not be particularly dense or widespread, but will mention this to
the incoming evening shift, and included fog in the weather grids.
Sunday will be windy and warmer. Model guidance agrees with warming
850 mb temperatures at least 10C over Saturday, with the strongest
warm plume arriving Sunday evening, after peak heating. Still, given
pronounced warm advection and excellent mixing with stronger south
winds, followed the warmest guidance Sunday, with 70s common in the
afternoon, and even lower 80s south and west of Dodge City adjacent
to Oklahoma. This matches GEFS 2m temperature probability, with near
100% probability of reaching 70 degrees all zones, and a 50%
probability of reaching 80 degrees across S/SW zones. The warmest
highs, near 83, are expected at Elkhart where the warmest 850 mb
plume will have a chance to mix down prior to sunset. In response to
leeside troughing reestablishing in eastern Colorado, south winds
will gust 30-35 mph Sunday afternoon. Along with WFO Wichita,
increased wind/wind gust grids to the 90%ile of the NBM.
Temperatures Sunday night will again be unseasonably slow to cool
down after sunset, with mixing slowing radiational cooling and as
the atmosphere warms aloft. High confidence all zones will remain
well above freezing, in the 40s, through Monday morning, with EPS 2m
temperature probability of <32 at 0% all zones.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
All grids in this long term forecast are dry for all zones,
through next Saturday November 11th. It will be quite some time
before SW KS sees meaningful precipitation again.
A very weak cold front with a north wind shift is expected early
Monday, with light winds trending easterly in the afternoon.
Despite this, models show little if any cooling, and temperatures
have overperformed in easterly upslope situations recently.
Afternoon temperatures will warm easily into the 70s as shown by
NBM, and supported by GEFS/EPS 2m temperature probability.
Near record warmth is expected Tuesday afternoon. Model guidance
depicts midlevel flow becoming more SWly, with lee cyclogenesis
near Baca county Colorado. Light winds will assume a SWly
downslope component, and with 12z GEFS outlining an intense +16C
850 mb temperature anomaly over SW KS, temperatures will soar to
near record levels. 850 mb temperatures in the 20-23C range will
support lower 80s, and impressively, even the latest NBM update
is forecasting 82 at DDC. A high of 82 at DDC would tie the record
high for November 7 (82/1931). The record high at GCK also looks
reachable (84/2021). GEFS probability of 2m temperature > 80 is
more than 90% south and west of Dodge City Tuesday afternoon.
Another dry cold front will bring another northerly wind shift
Tuesday night, which will trim afternoon temperatures back to the
60s with north winds of 15-25 mph Wednesday. All models with
varying degrees of intensity show a shortwave trough over the
Great Basin Wednesday. GFS-based solutions shear this wave out
over the plains in a weakened state, with a continued dry
forecast. Deterministic 12z ECMWF tries to develop some light
precipitation for SW KS around Thursday, keeping a more coherent
wave with stronger lift. Believe this is another example of ECMWF
overdeveloping precipitation with a positively tilted trough, and
prefer to keep the forecast dry (pops < 15%) as NBM depicts. Did
accept NBM`s sharp cooldown Thursday, with afternoon temperatures
reduced to the much more November-like lower 50s, along with more
clouds and north winds. 06z EPS 2m temperature probability of just
reaching 50 degrees Thursday is only about 50%. North winds on
Thursday will need to be increased over the NBM with future updates.
The next freeze will occur Friday morning, as attending high
pressure settles southward down the high plains, with a hard freeze
in the 20s expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
This new TAF cycle will introduce 1/2SM in fog at DDC, GCK, LBL as
there is now high enough confidence in development of fog, dense
at times, for a 3 to 5 hour period from roughly 10 to 15Z early
Sunday morning. Winds will become 7 knots or less after sunset,
and the light southeasterly wind through the night will keep low
level moisture in place, such that temperature should fall easily
to the dewpoint supporting widespread fog. After 15Z Sunday,
visibility will increase as insolation increases, helping mix up
the boundary layer. All terminals are forecast to return to VFR
by 17Z or so with a continued south-southwest wind 15 to 20 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 44 73 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 42 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 39 81 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 40 78 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 40 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
P28 45 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM CST Sunday for KSZ043>045-
063-064-076>078-086>088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
932 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
High pressure will continue overnight. Temps and dews look good
tonight and will only make some very minor changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
As has been the case for the past several days, our sensible weather
will be dominated by modest surface high pressure, the center of
which has slid more fully into place across the southern
Appalachians. Despite weak shortwave troughing moving through the
mid-levels through late tomorrow, our pervasive and persistent dry
airmass will continue to win out -- giving no hope for meaningful
precipitation chances to help alleviate worsening drought
conditions. Expect a burst of high clouds beginning early tomorrow
as the stronger of the two disturbances swings across the Southeast,
otherwise, clear and dry conditions to continue. Weak improvements
in low-level moisture continue to trickle in (PW of 0.41" on the
04/12Z sounding vs just 0.08" on the 01/12Z sounding), though the
mid-levels remain effectively bone dry (mid-level RH of 5% this
morning). With afternoon mixing less hindered under clear skies,
have opted to trend on the lower end of guidance for dewpoints
today, and blended in a healthy dose of HRRR and NBM10. A Fire
Danger Statement is in effect for much of north Georgia and portions
of east central Georgia, as relative humidities will once again drop
below critical thresholds.
Our gradual warming trend under a moderating (and moistening)
airmass will continue through the weekend, with highs today topping
out in the lower-70s, and just a degree or two warmer tomorrow.
Tonight, lows look to drop into the upper-30s to 40s, just "warm"
enough to preclude Frost Advisory issuance by the day shift.
96
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Current forecast is still on track with a dry and warming trend
through Mid week. Will see increased chances of precip by the end of
the week.
High pressure dominates the first half of the long term starting
Monday. Very zonal flow will be in place across the CONUS with
embedded shortwaves within it. One will be located over the Great
Lakes region with attendant sfc low that will drive cold front into
the Ohio River Valley. Front will stall, and with southerly winds
across the CWA and high pressure, the warm up will be on. Expect
above average temperatures through the week, with highs in the 70s
to lower 80s by Thursday. Overnight lows will also be a far cry from
the past few days, reaching back into the 50s.
Late Thursday into Friday, a wave in the desert SW will eject and
merge with another broader trough digging into the eastern CONUS.
This should provide for some lift that may provide for some rain
showers across the CWA. A cold front looks like it will begin to
slide SE towards the CWA by the weekend, though uncertainty exists
around timing and position of these systems. At the very least, it
looks like we might have a shot at some much needed rainfall
beginning Thu evening going into Fri. Just how much, and if it will
even be impactful, remains to be seen. It also appears there will be
very little instability with this so only expecting showers with no
thunder.
Lusk/01
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
VFR through the period. However, some sct-bkn mid level clouds
around 150-200 possible tomorrow. Winds will remain on the west
side.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
NListemaa
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 42 73 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 46 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 40 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 40 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 45 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 46 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 43 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 40 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 42 73 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 44 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...NListemaa
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
611 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Recent SREF and HREF guidance continues to support areas of fog
development overnight into tomorrow morning, particularly along
and east of the I-35 corridor. Have expanded the mention of fog in
the public forecast based on recent guidance trends, and small
pockets of dense fog could also materialize across portions of
Central Texas where local maxima in near-surface moisture content
will exist. Otherwise, the unseasonably warm weekend will continue
with lows in the mid/upper 50s and highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s tomorrow.
-Stalley
Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/
Warm and generally dry conditions will prevail through Sunday with
morning low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog. Modest
northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Sunday with a slow
moving upper low off of Baja California. Despite increasing near
surface moisture, we will remain precip free through the remainder
of the weekend. Another generally cool night can be expected
tonight with temps in the mid 50s, although the increased moisture
will make it feel damp. Another area of low clouds will develop in
Central Texas late tonight but may not be quite as pronounced as
this morning. Lighter surface winds will likely promote a few more
areas of fog again across our southeast counties.
Sunday will be warm with highs near 80 and continued southerly
winds. Another round of late night stratus may develop Sunday
night but an increasing southwesterly low level jet should keep
these mostly across East Texas.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 352 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023/
/Monday Morning Onward/
A rather quiet and warm start to the new work week is expected as
the ridging persists across the Gulf of Mexico and gulf states.
Continued west to southwest flow in the mid levels and more south
to southwest flow at the surface and in the low levels of the
atmosphere will keep the warm up going over the first half of the
week. Through the first half of this upcoming week, above-normal
temperatures and breezy conditions will prevail across the region.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the week, with
morning lows in the 60s and afternoon highs in the 80s region-wide
both days. These temperatures are 10-20 degrees above normal for
this time of November.
Around midweek, a mid level shortwave will move into the
northern/central Great Plains and usher a cold front south through
the region on Thursday. Chances for showers and storms will be
possible along and ahead of the front as it moves south over the day
on Thursday. Moisture will not be completely scoured out behind
the cold front, so cloud cover will remain through the end of the
long term period. Within the post frontal airmass, expect much
cooler (near normal to around 10 degrees below normal)
temperatures end out next week. Compared to the 80s during
midweek, Friday and Saturday will observe afternoon temperatures
in the 60s region-wide. The morning commute both days will be
chilly, with low temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Rain chances will return late Friday, spreading southwest to
northeast over the day Saturday, as overrunning/isentropic ascent
occurs atop the region.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Another round of fog and low stratus will materialize overnight
into Sunday morning which could affect many North and Central
Texas airports for a few hours. IFR probabilities from the HREF
and SREF are in the 30-60% range for most of the TAF sites, and
recent HRRR runs have been consistent with timing and placement of
a bank of fog/low stratus encompassing much of Central Texas as
well as eastern portions of D10. The most likely window for
category reductions will be roughly from 11-16z, with VFR
prevailing otherwise. Winds will remain southerly in the 7-12 kt
range with higher daytime gusts.
-Stalley
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 80 61 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 57 78 62 79 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 53 77 58 78 62 / 5 5 0 0 0
Denton 54 80 59 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 54 78 59 79 62 / 0 5 0 0 0
Dallas 58 79 62 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 55 77 59 78 62 / 0 5 0 0 0
Corsicana 59 80 62 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 56 80 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 54 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
735 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 735 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
While some clearing takes place overnight, an area of fog is
expected to form over east central Illinois toward morning.
Following a few lingering sprinkles south of I-72 this evening,
dry and mild weather will prevail into the first part of the new
week. A low pressure system will result in breezy southwest winds
on Monday, while another system provides rain chances during the
middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Radar continues to show a few echoes south of a Springfield to
Lawrenceville line early this evening. Our evening sounding is
quite parched below 15,000 feet, while HRRR soundings near
Effingham show the moist layer closer to 10,000 feet. In any
event, anything reaching the ground won`t be much more than
sprinkles.
Main concern overnight remains with the fog potential. Latest runs
of the HRRR and GFS-LAMP highlight the northeast corner of the CWA
with the highest threat of dense fog. However, there has been a
general trend toward perhaps not as much coverage, more limited to
areas near Champaign and Danville. NBM probabilities of less than
a mile visibility are around 30-35% in these areas, but only about
10% near Decatur, Springfield and Bloomington.
Geelhart
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
---------- Key Messages ------------
Scattered
1. Areas of fog, including some dense fog, are possible early
Sunday morning. The best chance for fog development is north of
I-74 and east of I-39, with chances gradually diminishing to the
south and west.
2. Rain chances across the local area continue to trend downward
for Monday/Monday evening (less than 20% chance). Southwest winds
are still expected to be breezy on Monday, with gusts to 30-35
mph.
3. A mid-week system will provide better rain chances area- wide
(30-60% chance). Temperatures remain mild (highs above 60F)
through mid-week before cooling to near normal (highs in the
low/mid 50s) by late next week.
------------------------------------
A shortwave is evident in water vapor imagery over eastern NE/KS
this afternoon, tracking southeast towards the MO Bootheel.
Regional radar shows some light returns across MO. This wave will
skirt by to the south this evening, and in theory could provide
some sprinkle/light rain chances across the southern fringes of
the ILX CWA (mainly south of I-70). However, dry low level air
(with dewpoint depressions greater than 20F) looks like it will
prevent any precip from reaching the sfc, and precip mention was
held out of the forecast this evening.
Tonight, weak sfc high pressure will shift over the area, and the
combo of light winds and clear skies will result in favorable
radiational cooling conditions. There is the potential for fog
early Sunday morning, which is the main weather concern through
the rest of the weekend. As noted in the AM update, visibilities
across Iowa Saturday morning generally dropped into the 1 to 4
mile range, with isolated visibility below 1 mile. High-res model
such as the HRRR are aggressive with the fog development Sunday
morning, showing dense fog developing northeast of a Lincoln-to-
Decatur line. From a probabilistic viewpoint, the NBM shows a 20%
chance of visibility less than 1 mile in these areas. The HREF
probabilities are higher (40-70% chance), however, these are
influenced by some members that consistently produce erroneous
near zero visibilities. At any rate, the best signal for
visibility reductions is in the northeast CWA (Champaign/Vermilion
counties), with the fog chances gradually reducing southeast from
there. Another aspect to consider here is the low temps, which
high- res models drop to near 32F, leading to some concern about
freezing fog. The NBM has a 20% chance of low temps reaching
freezing in places like Champaign/Vermilion counties tonight. To
be clear, the likelihood of freezing fog tonight is low, however,
given it is a potentially high impact scenario, felt it was worth
highlighting here and will need to be monitored closely this
evening.
Much of the forecast for next week remains on track. On Monday, an
upper wave moving through the norther Plains/upper Midwest will
result in a deepening sfc low over the Great Lakes. PoPs for
Monday have steadily trended downward with this system, with the
NBM now indicating a less than 15% chance of precip. With precip
chances diminishing for Monday, the main forecast concern has
shifted to the winds, which are expected to gust to 30-35 mph out
of the southwest. This system will bring a weak front through the
CWA Mon night, stalling out across southern IL by Tues AM.
Another fast-moving system develops mid-week across the central
Plains, racing north into the upper Great Lakes by Thurs morning
and providing modest rain chances (30-50%) to central IL as it
does. I noted yesterday that any mid-week severe weather chances
would hinge on the instability values, which were looking
unimpressive, and today`s forecast guidance has trended even lower
with those instability values. Southerly sfc flow ahead of this
system will keep temps mild again on Wed, ranging from the mid-60s
(north of I- 74) to mid-70s (along/south of I-72).
As the mid-week system lifts off to the north, the associated cold
front will track from northwest to southeast across the area. The
usual timing uncertainties still exist this far out, but most
models suggest FROPA prior to Thurs morning. The front stalls
close enough to the area that the NBM keeps a broad swath of
20-30% precip chances in across eastern/southeastern IL through
Thursday evening. Despite multiple disturbances this week, total
rainfall amounts are likely to stay under 1" (80% chance), and no
hydro/flooding issues are anticipated. Northwesterly sfc winds
behind the front will advect colder, drier air into the region,
resulting in a cooling trend with highs in the low/mid 50s (and
lows in the low to mid 30s) next Fri-Sun. Such temperature values
are much closer to normal for early/mid November.
Erwin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Main aviation concern is with potential for fog late tonight and
early Sunday morning. While several of the high-res models
continue to focus on dense fog development in east central
Illinois, they have been trimming back on the potential westward
extent. Period of concern is from 10-14Z. Greatest concern
remains at KCMI, where NBM probabilities of less than 2SM are
around 40% and less than 1SM at 30%. Further west, probabilities
of visibility 5SM are around 20-25% at KBMI/KDEC. Forecast
soundings show the fog will be quite shallow. Once the fog lifts
around mid morning, VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the
period as winds turn more south-southwest.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Spotty showers have shifted south into the Treasure Coast waters,
with some of the activity moving onshore and producing a few spits
of light rain along the coast form Vero Beach southward. 00Z HRRR
guidance confines the coastal shower threat to the Treasure Coast
Counties, gradually diminishing and shifting offshore late. Grids
/ZFP products have been adjusted toward this end. Only minor
tweaks to sky cover/winds. Overnight mins ranging from the M-U50s
north of I-4 to the L70s along the Treasure Coast barrier islands.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Updated the CWF earlier this evening to add the 0-20nm Treasure
Coast leg back into the SCA as buoys 41114/41068 reporting winds
near 20kt/seas 6-7ft. The SCA continues for all the nearshore legs
through 09Z/4AM and for all offshore legs through 03Z/10PM Sun. A
few light rain showers will continue over the Atlantic overnight,
mainly from SIPF1 southward, moving quickly SSW at 20-25mph.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
3.9UM IR shows low-mid clouds (CIGs BKN-OVC050-070) across the
north and interior aerodromes have dissipated, with MVFR to VFR
CIGS BKN025-050 and ISOLD -SHRA still impacting the KVRB-KSUA
corridor. CIGS should continue into overnight, shower coverage
waning late. Made some adjustments for SUN to go a little more
optimistic on sky cover for the coastal aerodromes late morning
onward, as drier air spread south across the peninsula.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Sunday...Winds will begin a gradual downward trend as the pressure
gradient loosens. However, coastal areas will remain breezy at times
with wind gusts up to 20 mph. A dry airmass filtering southeastward
across the peninsula will keep any mentionable rain chances over the
Atlantic waters on Sunday. Sunday morning low temperatures will
range the mid 50s north of the I-4 corridor to the upper 60s along
the Treasure Coast. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the low 80s
with upper 70s across northern Lake and Volusia and mid 80s in
vicinity of Lake Okeechobee.
Sunday Night-Friday...Beginning Sunday night high pressure from
the Northern Gulf to Appalachians will build closer to the region
early in the week. No mentionable rain chances are anticipated at
least into late week with mostly sunny skies prevailing daily.
Dew point temperatures will be slightly higher Monday. Winds wl
remain light north to Northeast Monday before becoming more onshore,
while remaining lighter into mid-week as high pressure shifts to the
northeast of Florida.
A slight chance (PoPs around 15-20%) for marine and some onshore
moving low topped showers is forecast Friday. Highs will generally
warm a degree or so each afternoon with temperatures expected to top
out in the low to mid 80s mid to late week with lows in the L60s to
L70s) Thursday/Friday mornings.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Sunday...N to NNE north-northeast winds 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-
30 kts at times. Small Craft Advisories continue through the early
evening beyond 20nm for choppy seas to around 7 ft, especially in
the Gulf Stream.
Monday-Wednesday...Choppy boating conditions late Sunday will ease
Monday through midweek as high pressure across the Southeastern U.S.
shifts east, then offshore over the western Atlantic. Northeasterly
winds 10 to 15kts will slacken into Monday at about 8-12kts, before
veering onshore light Wednesday. Seas will build to 4-6ft with up to
7 ft in the offshore waters late Sunday and diminish to 2-4ft with
up to 5ft in the offshore waters Monday through midweek.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 202
Dry air will filter in across the area by Sunday night as high
pressure builds over the Southeast next week. Minimum relative
humidity values are forecast to drop into the low 30s to low 40s
along and to the north of I-4 on Sunday, then the low to mid 40s
through midweek. Dry conditions and low relative humidity will lead
to an elevated risk of fire weather conditions beginning Sunday and
lasting into at least Tue, before winds become more onshore at
midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2023
Flow at the Saint Johns River near Astor has reversed due to strong
northerly winds, causing the river to rise into Moderate Flood Stage
at 3.0 feet this morning. Additional rises are possible into next
week. This is mainly due to strong northerly winds and high tides
over the adjacent Atlantic restricting downstream drainage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 63 75 61 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 79 63 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 68 80 65 / 10 10 10 0
VRB 81 69 81 66 / 10 20 10 10
LEE 78 57 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 78 61 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 79 63 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 81 70 81 67 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ550-552-555.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for AMZ570-572-575.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Sedlock
AVIATION...Cristaldi