Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/04/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
518 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Warming trend will continue into Saturday as a weak upper level
ridge builds into the region. Isentropic upglide has weakened
over the area and expect clouds will diminish with loss of heating
this evening. Winds will become light during the overnight period
tonight and again Saturday night as a weak surface ridge remains
along the coast. Went with SREF probabilities for the forecast of
fog over the next two nights. Expect patchy fog will develop over
the inland coastal plains late tonight. With a little more
boundary layer moisture for Saturday night, should see areas of
fog over the Victoria Crossroads and patchy fog over the rest of
the inland coastal plains during the overnight hours. Will point
out that the latest HRRR model is more optimistic with fog
formation for the coastal plains late tonight and again. Trends
will need to be monitored for dense fog potential each night.
Tide levels are running below 0.5 feet above expected at this
time. PETSS shows tide level could approach advisory level for
this next high tide cycle tonight. But with current tidal
anomalies, not expecting tides to be more than 1.5 feet MSL at
high tide. The swell periods are forecast to increase to 8-9
seconds Saturday into Saturday night. This could push the rip
current risk to moderate for this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Key Messages:
- 30-40% chances of rain return late next week
Weak upper-level ridging will continue for the first few days of the
long-term with southerly flow and PWAT values near 1". With the
limited moisture, rain chances will remain less than 5% for much of
next week. By mid-week next week, a weak trough will swing across
the Northern Plains ejecting a cold front into the Southern Plains.
The front will try to clear the region late next week, but
confidence remains low on the front actually making it into South
Texas. Confidence should increase one way or another in the coming
days as we get a better idea of the strength and positioning of the
trough in the Northern Plains. If the front does clear the region,
would anticipate it to be of the weaker variety bringing
temperatures down to more seasonal values. As the potential front
approaches, moisture will increase with models showing PWAT
increasing to near 2" promoting showers and thunderstorms. For the
time being, went with a medium (30-40%) chance for showers and
thunderstorms late next week.
Above-normal temperatures are expected this weekend and into next
week with temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 90s by mid-week
next week. Heat index values next week could potentially climb into
the upper 90s. Dependent on the front, temperatures late next week
could come back down to more seasonal values. Overnight lows are
expected to be in the 60s and 70s for most of the week with a
possible 5-10 degree cool down late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Patchy fog could develop this morning between 09Z and 14Z over the
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Models differ on the
whether this will develop, but with light winds and low level
moisture, have included a TEMPO for VCT and ALI. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
A weak onshore flow will persist from tonight through Saturday
night. Models show lapse rates for the 1000-850 mb layer greater
than 7.5 degs C/km over the offshore waters. Latest CAMs are in
general agreement showing isolated showers over the offshore
waters for tonight through Saturday night. Will show isolated
showers in the forecast for the offshore waters tonight through
Saturday night.
Light to mostly moderate southerly flow is expected this weekend and
into next week. A possible cold front could approach our area waters
late week which would increase rain chances to 30-40% and veer the
winds to the northeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 58 82 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 55 81 61 82 / 0 10 0 0
Laredo 60 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 55 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 63 80 67 82 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 57 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 57 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 63 80 69 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...LS/77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Possible strong winds Saturday night into Sunday is the primary
forecast concern with this forecast package.
Currently...Surface low near Chugwater this afternoon with a
stalled out stationary boundary from Denver north to Douglas and
Sheridan. West northwest flow being reported at most METAR sites
this afternoon...gusting 25 to 30 mph. Upper shortwave moving
through the fast northwest flow this afternoon.
Used HRRR and RAP simulated radar on PoPs this afternoon and
early evening. Both are showing some light qpf across northern
Platte/Goshen Counties into the northern Panhandle with the upper
shortwave moving through. Did increase PoPs some for this
afternoon/early evening based on this low qpf.
Upper height rises Saturday as ridge begins to build back into the
CWA...forcing the surface boundary east. Slightly warmer Saturday
over today`s highs with low to mid 60s east of Laramie
Range...mid to upper 50s west.
Could see a marginal high wind event Saturday night into Sunday.
700 to 750mb winds increasing to 50kts across the central and
northern Laramie Range. Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients
up near 55/45mtrs. Random Wind Forest guidance shows an uptick in
strong wind probabilities from 06Z through 18Z Sunday. Confidence
not too high at this point to hoist any wind headlines. Did
increase winds at Arlington and Bordeaux to just below high wind
levels.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Medium-range model guidance is in excellent agreement with general
quasi-zonal flow aloft across the central Rockies through the next
week. Numerous mid/upper-level disturbances will traverse the flow
during this time, with the strongest wave expected to track across
the region from Tue through Wed. Precipitation chances should stay
confined to areas primarily along and west of the Laramie Range w/
the Pacific moisture source. No impactful storms are expected thru
the period, though a few inches of mountain snow are possible mid-
week. Above-normal temperatures are expected through Tue, prior to
the cold frontal passage Tuesday Night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Northwest flow aloft will continue as a ridge aloft moves overhead
on Saturday. Expect scattered to broken clouds from 10000 to 15000
feet AGL. Winds will gust to 25 knots at Rawlins and Laramie until
02Z, then to 30 knots at Rawlins, Laramie and Cheyenne after 15Z
Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Breezy northwest winds this afternoon with gusts in the 30 mph
range. Cooler temperatures today with afternoon humidity well
above critical levels. Same for Saturday in terms of humidity and
gusty west winds. Humidity may become critical Sunday as high
pressure builds back into the area and temperatures warm
significantly over Saturday. May see near critical humidity across
the south Laramie Range east to Kimball County. Elsewhere...non-
critical afternoon humidity expected with wind gusts 30-40 mph.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Main focus through the short term portion of the forecast is the
potential for pockets of dense fog to develop overnight, mainly
across portions of Central and East Texas. Based on slightly more
aggressive portrayals of visibility reductions in recent short-
term guidance, have expanded a mention of fog as far northward as
Dallas, with the potential for fog rapidly declining farther to
the west due to much lower surface dewpoints. Other than some fog
and lingering low stratus to begin the morning, it should be a
very pleasant start to the first weekend of November.
-Stalley
Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/
Quiet and pleasant weather will continue through the first half of
the weekend as high pressure continues to dominate the region.
Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with high
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Southerly winds will
continue to advect low-level moisture back into the region
overnight and into Saturday. As a result, tonight won`t be quite
as cool with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. There continues to
be a low potential for patchy fog to develop across portions of
Central Texas early tomorrow morning, but fog development could be
disrupted by a stratus intrusion. For now, kept a mention of
patchy fog for a few hours Saturday morning, but this will
continue to be re-evaluated over the next few forecast updates.
Otherwise, our warming trend will continue into Saturday with high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s and a steady south breeze
around 10-15 mph.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 347 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023/
/Saturday Night Onward/
Over the latter half of the weekend into next week, modest ridging
will build into the Gulf of Mexico, and zonal flow will prevail in
the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere over the region. Coupled
with southerly to southwesterly flow at the surface and low levels,
the warming trend will continue throughout North and Central Texas.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the forecast, with
temperatures in the 80s region-wide both afternoons. These high
temps are 10-20 degrees above climatological normals for this time
of year. Thankfully we will not be looking at any record-breaking
highs for Tuesday and Wednesday, as DFW`s record highs are 88 for
both days. Waco`s record highs are 92 and 89, respectively.
By midweek, a deeper trough will swing across the northern Great
Plains, ushering a cold front south through the region Wednesday
into Thursday. Current long-range deterministic and ensemble
guidance is generally in agreement with the overall timing of the
frontal passage, as the 12Z GFS has sped up the front with this
latest run. There is still uncertainty in the finer-scale details of
the front this far out, with cluster analysis showing slightly
different solutions between clusters and the grand ensemble. 31% of
solutions show a much slower progression of the front on Thursday.
We`ll continue to watch how medium and short-range models
materialize the front in the coming days, and will have better
detail on timing in the days to come.
Expect near normal temperatures behind the front to end the week out
(+/- ~5 degrees near normal, give or take). Afternoon highs on
Thursday will range from the upper 60s to the mid-upper 70s, while
Friday morning lows will bottom out in the 40s and 50s. Friday
afternoon should be even cooler.
Rain chances will also return to North and Central Texas starting
late next week. Showers and possibly some embedded storms will be
possible along the front on Thursday, primarily be confined to
Central Texas and the eastern portions of the region thursday into
Friday morning. Looking into Day 8 of the forecast, rain chances
look to spread across more of the region as moisture remains present
and overrunning occurs. The most current CPC 6-10 and 8-14 Day
Outlooks (issued Nov. 3rd), both show North and Central Texas in a
higher probability of above normal precipitation within those time
frames. This will be something to watch and look forward to as we
head full-swing into the month of November.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
The main aviation concern through the period is the potential for
fog and low stratus at the TAF sites from roughly 12-16z tomorrow
morning. The most likely areas to be affected would be Waco and
eastern portions of D10. Recent SREF and HREF guidance indicates
60% chances for IFR conditions at Waco and about 20-30% for most
of the Metroplex airports, while recent HRRR runs have been more
spatially bullish with fog development. Have begun to trend more
pessimistic with this TAF issuance, but will hold off on
prevailing significant category reductions until this trend
persists through the evening. Outside of this morning time window,
VFR conditions and southerly winds at 10-15 kts will prevail.
-Stalley
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 52 77 57 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 52 76 56 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 47 74 53 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 49 76 54 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 49 76 53 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 52 76 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 49 73 54 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 52 78 58 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 50 78 54 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 50 76 55 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
915 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Virga and light rain from mid level clouds continues tonight. The
last several runs of the HRRR suggest a narrow swath or two could
receive up to a tenth of an inch of rain, though most of the area
is favored to receive very little. A couple layers of clouds may
linger on Saturday, some stratocumulus in the lower levels and
patches of altostratus, though with any luck some partial sunshine
will be present.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Surface cold front moves though overnight with some moisture to
work with as precipitable water values briefly spike up to about
0.75 inches along with some moisture contribution from Lake
Michigan. QPF is expected to be light as lift is weak and there is
a dry sub-cloud layer to overcome. So amounts generally 0.05
inches or less for the overnight period.
Showers should clear the southeast forecast area by 12Z Saturday
then surface high builds in with fair weather for Saturday and
Saturday night and temperatures near to slightly below normal.
.LONG TERM...(After midnight Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Zonal flow will transition to more of a troughy pattern over the
Great Lakes by the end of the week. A couple of systems will move
through the region and give us an opportunity for rainfall.
The first will arrive Sunday night. Strong southwest flow ahead of
the low will result in breezy conditions Sunday night. Light rain
will develop in the warm advection pattern over northern Lower and
then move south as the cold front approaches. We`re likely to see
some rain develop north of I-96 Sunday night that will spread south
through the rest of the cwa Monday as the cold front moves through.
Given the southwest windflow, Monday will be the warmest day with
highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy as the trailing upper short wave moves
across northern Lower but still possible we could see a few peeks
of the sun.
The system for the middle of the week is a bit more complex. Models
show a series of short waves carving out an upper trough over the
Great Lakes Wednesday/Thursday as a couple of surface lows congeal
over the upper MS Valley. This activity keep rain in the forecast
from late Tuesday night through Friday, given the extent of the
short waves that will rotate through Michigan.
ECMWF ensemble mean QPF through the period looks like around a
quarter inch Tuesday and closer to a third to half inch late
Wednesday into Thursday.
High temperatures will fall into the lower 40s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
A cold front sinking south across the state tonight will bring
chances of light showers to all terminals through early Saturday,
though no impacts to visibilities are expected given low level dry
air and the light and scattered nature of the showers. All sites
are presently VFR and forecasted to remain so overnight and into
the start of the day Saturday. Current cigs in the 7000-10000
foot range lower to around 4000 ft overnight and remain at or
below 5000 feet for most sites through the end of the TAF window.
There are some signals for MVFR cigs at all sites except MKG as
low- level moisture/dewpoints climb after 18z Saturday however
confidence in the occurrence of these cigs is to low to include
in the TAFs with this package but the potential will be monitored
going forward. West to southwesterly winds ahead of the front
become light and northeasterly into the start of Saturday and
shifting to northwesterly later Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023
The Gale Warning is replaced by a Small Craft Advisory as winds
have generally stayed below gales today and the trend will be for
decreasing winds this evening. Surface pressure gradient relaxes
as trough axis/cold front moves through tonight and a brief period
of light winds and waves under surface high pressure can be
expected Saturday into Sunday.
Winds and waves will increase again late Sunday as a low pressure
approaches from the Northern Plains and southerly gales are
possible late Sunday night into Monday in advance of the low.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAS
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Key Messages in short term:
*Above normal temperatures continue this weekend, warmest day being
Sunday
*Slight chance of rain showers tonight into early Saturday
Key Messages in the long term:
*Dry after Saturday, through the end of the week
*Cooler temperatures by mid-week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
The forecast tonight gets an update for isolated thunderstorm
chances. This forecast is based on the HRRR echo tops product and
guidance from the SPC. It`s worth noting the RAP shows convective
instability aloft in the form of strong lift and negative theta-e
lapse rates insuring at a minimum, convective development is
likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
The main concern in the short term will be low
temperatures and precipitation chances. A disturbance will move in
tonight and expect an increase in cloud coverage tonight. Several
models have started to trend warmer, with lows only in the 40s
expected, however, these models also had cloud coverage continuing
most of this afternoon and evening. However, decided to trend cooler
as skies have started to clear this afternoon and expected it to
continue into the early evening before mid to upper clouds develop
out ahead of the disturbance. Would expect the several hours of
mostly clear skies after sunset to cool temperatures off into the
mid to upper 30s, before clouds will move in and have an impact in
temperatures, would generally not expect too much cooling
temperatures after midnight, except in locations that may see rain
showers.
As for precipitation chances tonight, as the disturbance moves in
there will be some weak mid level forcing and rain showers will be
possible late this evening into early Saturday. The greatest
potential for showers will be across the Sandhills. Although
forecaster confidence is low to moderate in any considerable
precipitation development, this area is where forecaster confidence
is greatest in seeing some light precipitation, however qpf values
are expected to be less than .10". Confidence however is moderate to
high in precipitation type being rain showers and not any areas
seeing snow as temperatures from the sfc and above are expected to
remain several degrees above freezing. Any precipitation that does
occur is expected to be out of the forecast area by Saturday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Temperatures will remain above normal through mid-weak
with Sunday having the warmest temperatures. On Sunday a thermal
ridge will be in place across much of the forecast area this
combined with very warm 850 temps nearing 20 degrees celsius and
southerly winds will help temperatures soar into the low 70s for
much of the area, which is around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for
this time of year. Upper level flow will remain zonal through mid-
week before an upper level trof starts to move into the High Plains
by late Wed. Cooler temperatures will be cooler to end the week with
highs in the low to mid 50s which is near to slightly below normal.
As far as precipitation, after early Saturday the remainder of the
forecast is expected to remain dry at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Nov 3 2023
Showers are likely at KLBF overnight, but should not affect
visibility. Some guidance suggests the possibility of thunder near
KLBF, however confidence is low at this time, but this will merit
watching and possible amendments. Showers should remain mostly south
of KVTN. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail throughout tonight and
tomorrow. Clouds moving through the area will lower ceilings, but
should remain VFR. Winds remain generally light overnight, with a
shift to prevailing southerly winds tomorrow.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...Gomez
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ/Richie