Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/02/23

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 737 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023

Made some changes to winds for tomorrow (Thursday) GFS and RAP
shows ample mixing occurring across western portions of the area
in response to a developing surface low across SW Wyoming.
Westerly winds of 10-15 mph gusting up to 25 mph at times looks
probable. With the westerly downsloping winds, this also suggests
that warmer and drier conditions will ensue as a result elevated
to near critical fire weather is possible mainly along and west of
a Dundy to Greeley county line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023

Western ridge will break down this period, with a northwest flow
early in the period transitioning to a zonal flow by the end of
the period. Dry conditions continue due to a lack of forcing and
moisture. Temperatures will be above normal with highs mainly in
the 60s, a few 70s possible, and lows in the 20s and 30s. There
will be occasional elevated fire weather due to low humidity, but
winds are forecast to stay below critical criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023

Progressive zonal flow is forecast for the long term period.
Next chance for precipitation comes late in the period with an
embedded shortwave trough. However, models in poor agreement with
strength and timing of that system. GFS is faster and colder,
generating a swath of light snow across western and southern areas
Tuesday night through Wednesday. The ECMWF is slower and warmer,
not bringing the wave through until Wednesday night and Thursday,
mainly as light rain. Given this is 7 days out and the model
discrepancies, will go with a persistence forecast and keep it
dry. Temperatures start the period slightly above normal, but
gradually cool to slightly below normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 431 PM MDT Wed Nov 1 2023

Light and variable winds look to be present across the area for
the majority of the TAF period due to mainly unorganized weak
flow. Cirrus moving across the area looks to be lessening in
coverage from west to east across the area, but am seeing
additional signs of more developing off of the Rockies. Skies
should become less cloudy at least by 06Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg