Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/15/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
947 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023
Clouds continue to erode nicely from northwest to southeast with
much of the west and portions of the north now under a mostly
clear sky. For this update, we did decide to go ahead and expand
patchy fog mention overnight further north and east to better
reflect the latest short term guidance trends. Otherwise, just
blended in the latest observations to the forecast and updated the
aviation discussion below.
UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023
Most of western and central North Dakota remains under a blanket
of clouds. However, clouds will continue to diminish from west to
east overnight and into Sunday morning. No major changes were
needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations of
the sensible weather fields to the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023
The Northern Plains sit under an upper level deformation pattern
early this afternoon, with longwave troughing to the east and west
and longwave ridging to the north and southwest. At the surface, a
meridional ridge axis extends from the Canadian prairie provinces to
the Central High Plains. The weak flow regime has allowed cloud
cover to remain persistent over much of North Dakota throughout the
day. The cloud deck appears to be quite shallow and located between
850 and 800 mb, making its forecast difficult to diagnose using
traditional two-dimensional RH fields in deterministic guidance. RAP
time cross-sections of RH would suggest a slow erosion of clouds
from west to east later this afternoon through tonight, but recent
satellite trends show the contrary.
Deep layer subsidence will promote dry weather through the short
term period. The placement of the cloud cover through the night will
likely be the discriminating factor between low temperatures
remaining above or falling below freezing. Highs on Sunday will
mainly be in the 50s and may approach 60 in the far west. Some
guidance is suggesting fog development over far southwest North
Dakota early Sunday morning. The kinematic and thermodynamic
profiles in model soundings there do not appear to be exceptionally
favorable for fog formation, but a mention of patchy fog was added
to the forecast in acknowledgement of the consistency of rapid-
refresh model trends.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023
The overall theme for the upcoming week is above normal
temperatures, with a brief cool down accompanied by chances for rain
in the middle of the week.
Deep-layer, synoptic scale high pressure and anticyclonic flow are
forecast over the central CONUS through Monday, with the upper ridge
axis cutting through Montana and surface ridging from western
Ontario to Texas. The NBM exhibits high confidence in temperatures
rising into the 60s across most of western and central North Dakota
on Monday, warmest in the far west where a few 70 degree readings
are possible. A potent Pacific Northwest shortwave trough is
forecast to quickly eject off the Northern Rockies Tuesday afternoon
and dig into the Northern Plains as a closed upper low Tuesday
night. The placement of the upstream shortwave Tuesday afternoon
will focus the thermal ridge over North Dakota, allowing high
temperatures to reach around 65 to 70. Low to medium chances for
rain (around 30 to 40 percent in the latest NBM iteration) enter the
forecast Tuesday evening and continue through Wednesday until the
upper low departs to the southeast. Not every location may see rain
with this system, and ensemble 90th percentile QPF only around one
tenth to one quarter of an inch point toward a lighter intensity
rainfall overall. There is effectively zero probability for
thunderstorms or for any precipitation type other than rain. The
passage of the trough cools the high temperature forecast back to
near normal on Wednesday to the mid and upper 50s. Gusty northwest
winds are also possible with the arrival of the cold front attendant
to the shortwave Tuesday evening and continuing through Wednesday
with the tighter pressure gradient on the backside of the surface
low.
Guidance favors a longwave upper ridge developing over the western
CONUS late next week, though with varying degrees of amplification
among ensemble systems and members thereof. Aside from the hint of a
late week clipper system in some deterministic models, the resulting
anticyclonic flow aloft would favor dry weather and temperatures
rising back above normal into the 60s for Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 947 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the period. 4 kft to 5 kft
ceilings will gradually diminish from west to east overnight and
into Sunday morning. Some patchy fog is possible across the
southwest overnight. The latest short term guidance suggests a bit
of a north and east trend for fog development, so it is possible
that KDIK could be impacted with lower visibility values overnight
and into Sunday morning. Timing and density uncertainty precludes
mention in the forecast at this time. Winds will generally be
light and variable through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...Hollan
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
113 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...
Shortwave energy seen on water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis this
afternoon was producing cloud cover as it pushed E into the
forecast area. Cooke City and Red Lodge web cams indicated no
precipitation, but the NBM had a 15% PoP for high elevations E of
Cooke City this evening, so have gone with this forecast. HRRR
showed more patchy fog developing tonight, so added that to the
grids through early Sunday. Temps tonight will range from the
upper 20s in KBHK to the lower 40s in the foothills. Upper ridging
builds in for Sunday and Sun. night with dry weather. Highs on
Sunday will be mainly in the 60s, with lows Sun. night from the
mid 30s to the mid 40s. Arthur
Monday through Friday...
Monday will be a pre-frontal day, before a ridge breakdown looks
to occur on Tuesday as a shortwave and associated cold front move
through the region. Highs in the 70s on Monday will give way to
60s on Tuesday. Along with cooler conditions, the shortwave and
cold front will bring gusty northwest winds and chances for
showers. Wind gusts of 30-45 mph look possible with and behind the
front on Tuesday, with breezy conditions continuing over the far
east on Wednesday. Precipitation chances Tuesday afternoon and
evening are currently 25-50%, with most shower chances shifting
east by Wednesday morning. Ridging looks to build back over the
region starting Wednesday, and continuing through the remainder of
the week bringing drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures
will be warming back into the 60s and 70s for most locations, a
good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail tonight through Sunday. Patchy fog may locally
reduce visibilities to MVFR or lower tonight into early Sunday.
Arthur
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/068 046/074 052/069 043/068 047/076 050/076 048/073
00/U 00/B 03/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 037/068 041/075 046/064 038/066 044/073 044/076 044/074
00/U 00/B 13/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
HDN 035/069 039/076 045/070 040/067 043/076 043/076 042/074
00/U 00/B 04/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 033/064 039/073 046/067 044/060 041/071 046/072 042/070
00/U 00/B 02/W 31/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 033/065 040/073 045/069 044/062 042/071 046/073 044/073
00/U 00/B 02/W 31/N 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 029/059 036/070 044/067 041/057 037/066 042/068 040/066
00/B 00/B 01/B 21/N 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 033/066 038/074 044/069 038/063 041/072 044/074 042/073
00/U 00/U 03/W 30/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023
.Discussion...
Issued at 356 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2023
Key Messages:
- Cooler, Cloudy, Drizzle/Rain Tonight
- Gradual Warm Up Through The Week
Discussion:
Deep H5 trough has moved over the Great Lakes Region as well as the
attendant surface cyclone. The cold front is well into the southeast
CONUS. The lower Missouri River Valley is still on the backside of
the cyclonic flow. Plenty of moisture has wrapped around the back
side this and has kept the stratiform cloud cover across the area.
The boundary layer has remained saturated, and kept drizzle in place
through much of the morning. There is a secondary short-wave and
stronger vort max at 500mb over the Nebraska Sandhills that is
moving toward the area. Height falls have already started this
afternoon, and the extra lift likely helped to promote more drizzle
even with the breezy winds. This will maintain cloud cover for the
rest of the evening, and may even keep cloud cover through Sunday as
this reinforces the backside of the cyclonic flow. Tonight, the
short-wave trough axis moves through and may force a few showers.
Overall QPF values are relatively low, less than 0.20 inches. GEFS
and other synoptic scale ensembles have covered most of eastern
Kansas and western Missouri with some QPF, though members of the
HREF have been more conservative with just a few pockets of 0.10
inches. Overall ensemble probabilities for exceeding 0.10 inches
this evening is less than 20 percent. Temperatures will drop into
the mid 40s. Northwesterly flow will help to bring in more cold air,
but the cloud cover should prevent radiational cooling this evening.
NBM inner-quartile values for lows tonight are mostly in the 40s.
Sunday afternoon, most deterministic solutions amongst NAM/ECMWF/GFS
begin to show subtle H5 rises but the short-wave stalls over the
western Ohio River Valley, which maintains cyclonic flow across the
area. Therefore, will hang onto the cloud cover for much of the day,
with HREF holding onto higher probabilities for clouds around 3000-
5000 feet. Drizzle and light showers may be possible while there is
enough saturation, but a surface high pressure dropping out of the
Plains behind the short-wave trough will bring northwesterly winds
and transport drier air toward the area. By tomorrow afternoon, NAM
and RAP soundings are relatively dry in the lowest 2500ft which
should bring an end to most drizzle if it is ongoing. With the
cloud cover, there will not be a considerable diurnal increase in
temperatures with highs mostly in the 50s across the area.
Monday, H5 ridge just west of the Rockies begins to amplify and will
push the deep trough pattern into the Atlantic Coast. This will
strengthen northwesterly mid-level flow across the area, and
resulting in an AVA regime. The subsidence increase should start to
clear out clouds by Monday, as well as strengthen broad surface high
pressure across most of the Mississippi River Valley. At 850mb and
below, this will turn flow southerly. This does not appear to be
overly strong, thus weak WAA will keep the warm up more gradual.
This is also reflected amongst NBM and other ensemble clusters, with
the mean maximum temperatures only gradually rising through
Wednesday with minimal spread with the inner-quartile ranges. The
ridge axis quickly moves eastward with another compact short-wave
moving from the Northwest CONUS. Heading into late Wednesday and
early Thursday, this short-wave will then bring our next forcing and
potential for precipitation. Amongst deterministic GFS and ECMWF,
there is a timing discrepancy between the two with ECMWF being
faster by about 6-8 hours. This is impacting the timing and also
amount of QPF for the middle of next week. GEFS members tend to be
better agreement with the GFS deterministic solution of a slower
solutions which would bring most rain Thursday morning. Overall, QPF
looks to remain light with this short-wave, as there is not a long
period of return moisture flow on the backside of the exiting
surface high pressure. Current ensemble probabilities for exceeding
0.10 inches of QPF for the middle of next week are less than 20
percent at the current moment. Overall, while there will be plenty
of forcing around, any areas experiencing drought are not likely to
see relief through the middle of the week.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2023
Conditions are currently varying between VFR and MVFR across the
region. Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR through tomorrow
afternoon. However, confidence is low concerning the timing of
cloud decks reaching VFR across the area. Winds will continue from
a northerly direction and will gradually weaken through the TAF
period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...Krull
Aviation...Collier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
509 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are mainly
sunny for locales along/west of Highway 25, with a persistent low
cloud veil still impacting most areas east of Highway 25.
Northerly flow remaining over the area with a surface ridge to our
north and west, and low pressure east.
The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis and water vapor imagery are
showing a shortwave digging south over the north central Plains,
and another weaker system currently trudging through the central
Rockies.
For the remainder of the afternoon hours a continued slow erosion
of the low cloud deck will continue east, as surface high
pressure builds out over the Plains region. The ridge axis will
build south over the area tonight allowing for winds to go
light/variable for most. The latest HRRR continues to show fog
formation potential after 06z Sunday, slowly rolling east into
Sunday morning in tandem with the ridge axis. This will continue a
previous forecast trend, but have increased the areal coverage of
the fog based on newer guidance.
The other concern overnight will be how much temps drop compared
to last night. Current guidance has areas slightly warmer than
last night in spots, but will be highly dependent on cloud cover
coming in from the west in association with the Rockies shortwave.
Guidance is mixed, but have issued another Freeze Warning for the
remaining KS counties from 06z-14z Sunday. Winds should be light
enough to support under clear skies, but the aforementioned clouds
could dampen the forecasted lows.
After getting through the expected cold morning on Sunday,
southerly flow will kick in during the day Sunday, persisting into
Monday, allowing for a warmup over the 2-day period.
For temps, with high pressure pushing south and east over the
Plains region in the short term, the area will see highs on Sunday
into the lower and mid 60s, giving way to a range on Monday from
the upper 60s into the lower 70s. Both days will have the western
half of the CWA warmest due to the slow movement of the surface
high, putting western zones into the return southerly flow the
longest.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 20s west into
the lower/mid 30s east. Temps west are dependent on cloud cover.
Sunday night, lower to mid 30s expected and going into Monday
night, a range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s is expected. With
the cold overnight lows, wind chill readings in the 20s are
forecasted this weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023
From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, upper ridge axis does
slide across the Plains region on Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will
be ahead of a quick moving weak shortwave on Wednesday/Wednesday
evening. The passage of this shortwave will bring about a cold
frontal passage as well, ushering in a brief cool down midweek. A
stronger upper ridge returns for the latter portion of the week,
allowing for another warmup to above normal temps by next Friday
and Saturday.
With the passage of the shortwave/cold front Wednesday, models
have been trending lower and lower for any pops in the eastern
CWA. The ECMWF is much faster than the GFS, but both are trending
to no chance for light showers Wed afternoon/evening.
What looks to occur though are increased elevated chances for
fire wx concerns Tuesday, Friday and Saturday afternoons. Decent
S/SW flow Tuesday afternoon will keep RH values around 20 percent.
Upper ridge pushing slowly off the Rockies next Fri/Sat will have
NW flow aloft, and zonal/southerly flow. Looking for dry
conditions to ensue each day, with the focus along/west of Highway
27. On Tuesday though, decent southwesterly flow at the surface
and westerly aloft with upper ridge exiting the area, will afford
the CWA another dry day.
For temps, highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s east of
Highway 83, through the lower to mid 80s in areas along and west
of Highway 27. The passage of a cold front will drop highs
Wednesday into the mid 60s through the lower 70s. For Thursday
onward, lower to mid 70s will give way to mainly upper 70s by the
first half of the upcoming weekend. For overnight lows, mainly
lower to mid 40s are expected, but areas along/west of Highway 27
could see a dip into the upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2023
GLD: 10-15 knot northerly winds will become light/variable after
sunset this evening and remain light/variable through the day on
Sunday.. as surface high pressure over the Northern Plains extends
southward over the Central Plains. VFR conditions will prevail
through the evening, with ceilings confined to cirrus AOA 20,000
ft AGL. With mostly clear skies and light winds, it`s possible
that IFR-LIFR fog/stratus may develop early Sunday morning..
depending [perhaps] on the thickness/opacity of orographic cirrus
emanating from the Rockies. In other words, less cirrus equals a
greater potential for fog/stratus development. The greatest
overall potential for IFR-LIFR conditions appears to be in the
~08-14Z time frame. Fog/stratus, if present, will lift and scatter
by late morning (15-18Z Sun). Thereafter and otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.
MCK: 10-15 knot northerly winds will become light/variable after
sunset this evening and remain light/variable through the day on
Sunday.. as surface high pressure over the Northern Plains extends
southward over the Central Plains. As of 23Z this afternoon,
visible satellite and observational data indicate that low-end VFR
ceilings (~3,500 ft AGL) persist.. and that the western periphery
of the stratus deck (where cloud cover gives way to clear skies)
is situated ~35 nautical miles west of the MCK terminal. With
this in mind, stratus may persist well into the evening.. and may
(potentially) lower to MVFR. Although the aforementioned stratus
deck should gradually erode from west to east this evening into
tonight, IFR-LIFR fog/stratus may quickly re-develop early Sunday
morning. The greatest overall potential for IFR-LIFR conditions
appears to be in the ~08-14Z time frame. Fog/stratus, if present,
will lift and scatter by late morning (15-18Z Sun). Thereafter and
otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT
/9 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent