Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/13/23
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
921 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2023
.UPDATE...
Upper low has pushed into central Nebraska this evening. Wrap
around precipitation was still occuring over central and western
zones (banking along the foothills) but was becoming less and less
in coverage. Precipitation has all but stopped over Sheridan
county with the exception of light intermittent showers, with much
lighter snowfall over the higher elevations. Hi res models
project the precipitation (and mountain snowfall) to become less
and less through the remainder of the night. Could see an
additional inch over mainly the Beartooth and Absarokas but the
bulk of the heavier snowfall has ended. Have cancelled the Winter
Storm Warnings. Made small adjustments to overnight and Friday
morning PoPs based on current radar/satellite trends. Fog has
already started forming over central and western zones and should
continue to fill in as precipitation tapers off. Adjusted fog a
little farther east and into the early morning hours. Fog will be
locally dense in spots. TWH
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday night...
Rain and mountain snow, continued to move west through central and
western parts of the forecast area this afternoon, and was from
Rosebud County W at 1830Z. Looking at SNOTELS, showed estimates
of snowfall so far of 9 to 15 inches on eastern slopes of the
Beartooth/Absarokas and around 2 feet on eastern slopes of the NE
Bighorns. Observer in Story, WY reported snow levels around 5600
ft AGL. Temps in Red Lodge were in the upper 30s with rain
occurring per the web cam. Upper low was centered on the NE CO/SE
WY border per water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis. By 06Z, low
was progged to be over NE while a shortwave rotates through the E.
Highest PoPs will be W of KBIL around 80% and will have 20-30%
PoPs from over central Rosebud to far SE MT due to the shortwave.
PoPs will quickly decrease over the W after 06Z with some low PoPs
lingering over the far SE. Due to the heavy rainfall (Storm Total
on radar estimates from 0.75 to 1.75 inches from around KBIL W,
with around 3 in. on NE slopes of Beartooths/Absarokas), HRRR
highlighted areas from KBIL S and W for best chances of fog
tonight into early Friday. Added patchy to areas of fog. Later
shifts will need to watch for possibility of areas of dense fog
for a possible Dense Fog Advisory. Lows tonight will be in the 30s
and winds will be decreasing through the evening.
Weak upper ridging will be over the area on Friday through Fri.
night, with possible showers in the W mountains Fri. afternoon.
Highs Friday will be around 10 degrees below normal. Lows will be
in the upper 20s to lower 30s Fri. night for a possible freeze.
Upper diffluence moves over the area Saturday through Sat. night
with mainly dry and warmer weather. Arthur
Sunday through Thursday...
Warmer and drier conditions will prevail with westerly flow as the
week begins. A building upper level ridge builds into western MT.
Much of the CWA will see highs in the 60s Sunday and even into the
low 70s on Monday and Tuesday. A strong short wave disrupts the
ridging on Tuesday and brings increased chances, 30-50%, for
precipitation. There is a hint of snow in the high elevations of
the Absaroka/ Beartooth mountains, Tuesday night. As the short
wave pushes south, it develops into a defined system of low
pressure. By mid-day Wednesday, southerly flow will dominate the
upper level regime. This flow change will bring slightly cooler
temps with highs in the low 60s on Wednesday, before rebounding
into the mid 60s. Matos
&&
.AVIATION...
Rain (and any mountain snow) will diminish overnight. There will
be areas of fog and mist in south central MT overnight, with the
visibility in some areas west of KBIL dropping to less than 1/2
SM. Ceilings will be MVFR in southeast MT through the night. Near
KBIL and KSHR, ceilings should improve from IFR/LIFR to MVFR after
08z Friday or so. Areas west of KBIL will have IFR-LIFR ceilings
through most of the night, with brief periods of VLIFR ceilings
also possible. Mountains will be obscured. RMS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/052 033/058 040/066 043/070 049/068 045/061 042/067
50/B 01/B 00/B 00/B 02/W 42/W 10/U
LVM 036/050 031/063 038/066 039/070 044/066 036/058 038/067
51/E 01/B 01/B 00/B 14/W 42/W 10/U
HDN 036/052 030/060 035/066 038/070 041/069 043/061 039/067
10/B 01/U 00/B 00/B 02/W 42/W 10/U
MLS 036/048 032/055 034/061 039/067 042/066 044/059 040/065
01/E 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 32/W 10/U
4BQ 036/047 030/056 034/064 039/069 043/068 044/058 040/064
10/E 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 32/W 20/U
BHK 032/046 028/050 030/057 035/066 039/066 040/057 036/062
00/C 01/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W 10/U
SHR 033/048 026/056 033/064 037/068 041/068 039/057 037/064
30/E 01/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 53/W 20/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1009 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1008 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023
The warm front that has been draped across our northern counties for
much of the day has retreated southward, and recently passed through
the Indy metro area. Winds have become northeasterly at roughly
10kt. This has been slightly above the blended guidance, so will be
nudging winds upward a bit with respect to the boundary and its
forecast position. Gusts will be left alone, as a weak nocturnal
inversion should preclude significant mixing. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023
- Clear and mild tonight.
- Increasing Clouds and warm on Friday; Rain chances arrive late in
in the day in the Wabash Valley.
Surface analysis late this morning shows a warm front over northern
Central Indiana. This front was extending east from a strong area of
low pressure found over western Kansas. GOES16 shows some clouds
north of the front along Michiana. This left much of central and
southern Indiana mostly sunny and within the warm sector. Aloft
water vapor showed a deep area of low pressure over the Rockies,
as this was the parent upper system to the surface low. Ahead of
this deep upper low ridging aloft was found across the plains,
spreading eastward into the middle Mississippi valley. Subsidence
was found in place across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile at the
surface, winds across Central Indiana were south or southeast,
while cooler northeast winds were found on the north side of the
front across northern Indiana.
Tonight...
Models show an upper ridge axis moving across Central Indiana from
the Central Plains. This upper ridging was developing ahead of the
deep upper system pushing out of the Rockies. Surface high pressure
was extending from the middle Atlantic States west toward Kentucky
and Tennessee. The ridging aloft tonight will provide continued
subsidence across Central Indiana tonight while the surface high
pressure will also keep dry air in place across the Ohio Valley on
light east or southeast winds. Forecast soundings and time heights
continue to show a dry column overnight, with minimal temperature
advection in play. Thus will expect mostly clear skies overnight
with dew point temps in the lower to middle 50s.
Friday...
The previously mentioned ridge axis will begin to slowly depart
Central Indiana on Friday morning. The day should begin as a
continuation of the overnight sensible weather with mostly clear
skies and light winds.
As the day progresses, changes will be expected as the plains low
pressure system pushes east and the upper ridge axis departs,
allowing broad ascent to begin ahead of the low. This will allow for
increasing clouds across Central Indiana, from west to east as the
day progresses. Forecast soundings remain dry for much of the day
across Central Indiana, but do trend toward saturation late in the
day as forcing ahead of the approaching cold front begins to move
into the Wabash Valley. Best saturation is seen to arrive between
21Z and 00Z. HRRR is on board with this idea as an area of showers
is shown to be reaching the Indiana state line near 21Z. Thus most
of Friday should be rain free for Friday morning and early
afternoon, but as the afternoon progresses, rain chances will
increase, particularly in western Central Indiana. Thus will hold
off pops until at least 21Z, and trend increasing pops from west to
east from 21Z-24Z. Temperature wise, Indiana will spend much of the
day within the warm sector of the approaching low with southerly
winds in place. With much of the day expected to be rain free, highs
at or slightly above persistence will be expected, in the upper 70s
to near 80.
&&
.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Friday Night...
What once was a broad area of upper level diffluence and strong CVA
has now become rather unorganized with the current low becoming
occluded and stacked during the day on Friday. This in combination
with a stagnant deep low to the NE will limit eastward progression
slowing rain chances to primarily after 22Z for central Indiana.
Initial rainfall will be associated with a pre-frontal trough. The
environment out ahead of this trough will be nearly stable aloft
with lapse rates around 6 C/km above 700mb. This in combination with
a well mixed PBL will hinder potential for convective development.
There is a slim possibility of convection to be rooted aloft, leading
to elevated thunderstorms, but these will be very isolated. Winds
out ahead of this trough are likely to be fairy strong as the PBL
mixes to 3-4 kft. Expect sustained winds around 10-12MPH with gusts
up to 25MPH during this time period.
The second wave of rain chances will be associated with the surface
front. There is likely to be a moisture confluence zone just ahead
of this front, leading to lower LCLs and aiding in shower
development. With slightly cooler air aloft between the pre-frontal
trough and cold front, there is a narrow corridor of very weak
instability. This should be enough for scattered convective showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms
are likely to remain weak, but even the modest of convective growth
could lead to enough mixing for 35-40mph gusts along the boundary.
This front should pass through central Indiana around 05-09Z Friday
night. Temperatures will not fall much behind the front, but there
should be a noticeable drop in moisture.
Saturday and Sunday...
This weekend will feature troughing aloft and multiple chances for
light rain showers. Initially, on Saturday, a slight dry slot should
push out rain showers, but this will quickly get filled in as a
secondary low wraps around the primary circulation. Within this
secondary low, deep cloud cover and scattered light rain showers are
expected. Temperatures should remain just below seasonal on Saturday
with the colder airmass still to the north; expect daytime
temperatures near 60.
By Sunday, the secondary low will have passed, but the upper low
will remain with cloudy, cold conditions below. Due to the deep
cloud layer, light showers and sprinkles will be possible most of
the day. Expect Sunday`s high to be in the low to mid 50s.
Monday through Thursday...
The forecast becomes much more uncertain as we head into next week.
There looks to be some resemblance of low level ridging in the AVA
portion of the weekend low, which should promote less clouds and
drier conditions. Temperatures are likely to warm slightly beneath
subsidence and sunnier skies, but no substantial temperature swing is
expect. Forecast highs for this time period are in the low mid to
upper 60s.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Impacts:
* VFR conditions expected through tonight, into Friday.
* East-northeasterly winds gradually becoming southerly.
* Rain showers arriving late in the day at all terminals.
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected this evening, through tonight, and into
Friday. Generally clear skies are expected with some high clouds
arriving by sunrise Friday.
Surface winds will start the period out of the northeast from IND to
LAF, with a more easterly component likely from HUF to BMG. These
winds should persist through the night just shy of 10kts. A low-
level inversion should limit gusts, but an isolated gust to 15kts is
not out of the question. Winds gradually gain a southerly component
through the daylight hours Friday, with some gust to 20kt possible
at times.
After 12z or so, clouds begin to increase. High clouds streaming in
from the west along with low-level clouds associated with warm moist
advection. Cloud cover may come in waves throughout the afternoon,
but a dense overcast is likely by 23z. Showers should also arrive by
23z and continue on and off into the night. Brief reduction to MVFR
conditions is possible withing heavier rain showers.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Eckhoff
Short Term...Puma
Long Term...Updike
Aviation...Eckhoff
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
...Aviation Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Key Messages:
- Severe storms possible through early evening across portions of
central Nebraska.
- Strong winds expected tonight into Friday with gusts of 50 to 60
MPH expected.
- Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected tonight, mainly north of
highway 2 which could lead to localized flooding.
- Snow is possible tonight with some light accumulations in the Pine
Ridge and higher elevations of central Sheridan and west central
Cherry county.
H5 analysis this morning had an area of closed low pressure over
north central Colorado. A trough of low pressure extended south
southwest of this low along the New Mexico/Arizona border. Within
this low, satellite imagery this morning indicated a couple of
shortwaves: One was over the southwestern Nebraska Panhandle and a
second was over the Palmer Divide, northeast of Colorado Springs.
Ridging was present from northern Missouri into southern portions of
Minnesota with low amplitude flow extending from the Mississippi
Valley, east to the Atlantic Coast. Ridging was present off the
Pacific NW Coast and extended north into western British Columbia.
At the surface...low pressure was located roughly just to the south
of North Platte. A warm front extended east of the low into east
central Nebraska, while a dry line extended south southwest into
Kansas and a cold extended southwest of the low into northeastern
Colorado. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon just of to the east of the surface low and were lifting
north from Custer into Brown, Rock and Keya Paha counties. So far,
storms for the most part have remained below severe limits, however
some heavy rain was being reported over Custer County over the past
hour. Temperatures varied widely this afternoon across the area
with 2 PM CT temperatures ranging from 42 degrees at Gordon, to 63
degrees at Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
The main forecast challenges in the near term are four fold: 1)
Severe thunderstorm threat early this evening. 2) The threat for
heavy rainfall tonight. 3) The threat for snowfall in the far
northwest CWA tonight. 4) Wind potential tonight and tomorrow. For
early this evening with respect to the severe threat: Surface low
pressure will ride along the warm front into the evening hours
with this feature clearing the forecast area by mid evening. The
main severe threat will be east of the surface low and south along
a trailing dry line this evening. The latest HRRR and 12z
NAM/nest have this line and severe threat generally east of the
forecast area by 7 PM CT this evening. As this convection this
afternoon takes on a more linear mode late this afternoon, the
main severe threat will be winds and hail, as the threat for
discrete super cell thunderstorms decreases across our CWA by 6 PM
CT. With respect to heavy rain potential: This morning`s KLBF
RAOB had a layer pwat of 1.00 inches. Climatologically this puts
us in the 95th percentile for that PWAT for this time of year so
moisture is very abundant with this system. Overnight we had some
3 to 5 inch rainfall reports over northern Wheeler and far
southern Holt county. This area is in the Sandhills and flash
flooding potential is typically low in these areas. Even with the
rain from last night, 3 hr FFG for these areas is still between
1.5 and 2.0 inches. Another area of 1.5 to 2 inch 3 hr FFG was
over northeastern Boyd county. As for precipitation intensity,
feel the greatest threat for any flash flooding should be this
evening in a corridor from Custer county north to Keya Paha
County. Overnight, we will transition to more of a steady rain
event where rainfall rates are not expected to be high enough to
support flash flooding. Will continue to monitor the situation
closely this evening for flash flooding potential Overnight, as
temperatures continue to cool on the northern periphery of the
upper level low, there will be a threat for wintry mix of rain or
snow across northwestern portions of the forecast area. Some of
the operational models this morning continue to hint at the
potential for some minor snow accumulations over the Pine Ridge
and northern portions of Sheridan and northwestern Cherry county
overnight. Statistical guidance for Gordon, and even Chadron, has
temperatures too warm for snow overnight. However, cross sections
indicate some vertical (convective) lift present in a 9 PM to 3 AM
CT window tonight across far NW portions of the forecast area.
That being said, if we can get that upright convection and
corresponding snowfall rates, we could see a quick inch or two of
snow in the before mentioned areas. Any impacts to travel would be
in the form of reduced visibilities thanks to increasing
northerly winds and moderate to briefly heavy snowfall rates. Once
the snow ends, the blowing threat should be minimized as snow
will be heavy and wet. Given this is the first winter event of the
season and with the overnight timing, will probably hoist a
winter weather advisory for Sheridan county tonight. Finally there
is the wind threat with this system. Northerly winds will
continue to increase this evening as low pressure moves into
eastern Nebraska. A near 20 MB pressure gradient will develop
overnight from eastern into western Nebraska. Additional support
for a secondary boost in winds will arrive Friday morning as a PV
anomaly tracks from western South Dakota into western Nebraska.
With this feature arriving Friday morning, wouldn`t be surprised
if we saw our highest winds in western Nebraska from 6 to noon
Friday. As for wind speeds, BUFKIT soundings indicate sustained
winds to 40 with good gust potential to around 60 MPH overnight.
With the latest NBM forecast having similar wind speeds to the pvs
forecast, feel the current headlines for a high wind warning
remain on track.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
A secondary vort max will rotate around the periphery of the main
upper level low early Saturday. This will bring a small threat of
precipitation to the northeastern forecast area through midday.
Saturday will be cold behind the exiting system with highs in the
mid to upper 40s. This will be followed by a gradual warm up into
Tuesday with highs in the 50s Sunday and 60s Monday and Tuesday.
An upper level trough will cross the central CONUS Tuesday night,
leading to cooling temperatures and a small threat for
precipitation midweek next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
IFR/local LIFR is expected along and north of highway 2 overnight
with flight conditions improving to MVFR during the afternoon.
South of highway 2, MVFR overnight improves to VFR/MVFR Friday
afternoon. The improvement in both areas will occur from west to
east as a large storm system across the cntl Plains moves slowly
east.
Aviators across the north will encounter heavy rain overnight
which will become light Friday morning. Strong winds, 33030G50KT
are likely overnight and Friday across all of wrn and ncntl
Nebraska.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Friday for
NEZ004>006-022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MDT Friday for NEZ004.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for NEZ007-010-
028-029.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for NEZ008-009-
026-027-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
956 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Another quiet night is expected across the Mid-South. Low cloud
decks over the region will mitigate cooling overnight keeping
them in the upper 50s and low 60s.
A quick moving cold front will sweep across the region tomorrow
afternoon returning showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder
tomorrow afternoon into evening. QPF values are fairly low, 0.10"
or less, but there may be locally higher amounts across the
region.
Temperatures for tonight and tomorrow were adjusted based on cloud
cover trends. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.
DNM
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
A ridge of high pressure will produce warm and dry conditions
through early tomorrow afternoon. A few light rain showers are
possible tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front. Cooler and
drier air will filter in across the weekend with highs ranging
from the low 60s to low 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Shortwave ridging is occurring over the southeast CONUS enabling
dry air to thrive in the MidSouth today. As a result, mild and
dry conditions will continue through tomorrow afternoon.
A cold front, associated with an upper low centered over the
Rockies, will push eastward into the forecast area tomorrow
evening. A lack of moisture will limit potential for rain showers
across the MidSouth. QPF values will be at best only a few
hundredths of an inch mainly north of I-40. A few gusts are
possible as the pressure gradient tightens over the Mississippi
Valley.
Cooler temperatures and drier air conditions are anticipated
behind the cold front this weekend. Highs will be in the 60s with
lows in the 40s.
By Monday, the Midsouth will enter a northwest flow pattern as a
ridge builds in to our west and the aforementioned upper low sits
to our northeast. Temperatures are expected to remain cool until
Wednesday, where highs will warm into the low to mid 70s. Lows
will also return to the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
No significant aviation concern this evening. VFR should prevail
at MEM the better part of the night, thanks to a drier low level
fetch from the east/southeast.
HREF, LAMP and HRRR model depicts a narrow corridor of IFR CIGs
lifting north through TUP and UOX and MKL between 09Z and 12Z.
Will monitor 00Z model data as it arrives, to see if the westward
extent of this moisture drifts any closer to MEM.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB