Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/10/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
636 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
Key Messages:
- Rain/storm chances will increase late tonight and continue through
Tuesday night.
- There will be a potential for heavy rain, which may result in
instances of flash flooding, especially over areas that received
beneficial rainfall last week.
- Slightly below normal temperatures will continue.
KBRO Doppler radar is picking up on light precipitation for a
good portion of the CWA with a few pockets of moderate intensity
moving eastward from Mexico as of 2 PM. However, this activity is
hardly making it to the ground as low levels are dry when looking
at the 12Z BRO sounding data and the HRRR forecast sounding for
this afternoon. Therefore, keeping the mentioned of slight to low
end chances for rain through late this afternoon and minimal
rainfall accumulations.
As the evening progresses into Tuesday morning, chances for
showers are forecast to increase as tropical moisture from TS
Lidia and TS Max spreads across the local area. Then later in the
day on Tuesday, additional moisture is forecast to arrive to the
local area as a surface low pressure system across the southwest
part of the Gulf of Mexico pushes to the north and northeast.
As all of these ingredients are expected to come together on
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the threat for locally heavy rain
across the westernmost portions of the region and then spreading
east toward the coast by Tuesday night. Mean rainfall rates are
within the one quarter to half inch and up to one inch. Higher
rainfall rates cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger
convection, especially where PWs rise above 2 inches. So, a few
locations could get 2 to 3 inches of rainfall amounts. Given
portions of the region received beneficial rainfall last Thursday,
this additional rainfall could result in isolated instances of
flash flooding through the period. WPC ERO Day 2 shows our local
area under a slight chance of risk of rainfall exceeding flash
flood guidance.
Otherwise, the increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep
temperatures slightly below normal tonight, Tuesday and Tuesday
night with lows in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s and highs in
the mid to upper 70s to low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
The concern is that a low pressure area moving up from the
Southwest Gulf may develop into a coastal trough or even a weak
frontal system. The Hurricane Center gives the Gulf low pressure
area a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical system.
Besides mid and upper moisture from Eastern Pacific systems Max
and Lidia, there will be ample Gulf moisture to support initially
robust rain chances coming out off the short term Tuesday night
and into the long term on Wednesday. General tstorms will be
possible Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning across South
Texas as the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lidia approach the
region. Highest Chance for thunderstorms will remain offshore,
but there will likely be enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms
over land, particularly early Wednesday morning. Most of the one
to two possible inches of rain on Wednesday should focus on the
mid and lower RGV and perhaps the Brooks/Kenedy County ranches.
Scattered Wednesday convection will shift quickly offshore by
Wednesday night.
Temperatures will shoot up to around 90 on Thursday and into the
mid 90s on Friday ahead of a late Friday cold front. The front
will reverse the warming trend and will drop temps back to near
normal Saturday through Monday while bringing another, albeit
brief, chance of rain to parts of the region. The best rain
chances, likely no more than an inch, will be Friday evening and
Friday night. Locations and amounts right now will be focused
along the southern periphery of the CWA. It looks like there may
be an orographic lift factor coming into play, with moisture
pooling more intense along the Sierra Madre Oriental range just to
the south in Mexico. Thus a wetting rain for counties along the
Rio Grande, yes; significant or any rain at all elsewhere, no.
Skies will clear quickly Saturday with dry northwest flow aloft
behind the front and ridging upstream.
Rip current risk will likely be elevated Wednesday and again
Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
Overcast VFR conditions with occasional light rain. Rain chances
increase spreading west to east Tuesday with ceiling expected to
lower through the end of the aviation forecast period with
potential MVFR. Light east flow tonight turnings northeast with a
few gust approaching 20 knots Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
Tonight through Tuesday Evening...Expect light to moderate north
winds today, shifting to the southeast by Monday night as broad
high pressure prevails. A strengthening pressure gradient on
Tuesday will result in increasing winds, which may result in
Small Craft Exercise Caution. Low to moderate seas will prevail.
Wednesday through Saturday night...Variable direction moderate
winds and moderate seas through Friday. Small craft should
exercise caution conditions will be possible around Tuesday night
due to the possible development of a low pressure area over the
Southwest Gulf tracking north and briefly skirting along the lower
Texas Coast. A cold front arriving late Friday will bring
stronger north to northeast winds and building seas through
Saturday or Saturday night. Small craft exercise caution to low
end small craft advisory conditions will develop in the post cold
front marine environment. Marine showers and thunderstorms will
persist through the long term.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 75 86 74 83 / 20 60 80 50
HARLINGEN 69 83 68 82 / 20 70 80 50
MCALLEN 70 80 70 81 / 40 70 80 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 70 79 68 80 / 70 80 80 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 84 76 82 / 30 60 90 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 85 71 84 / 20 60 80 50
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bermudez (EWX)
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...59-GB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
543 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2023
Most of the Borderland region will remain typical fall dry, but a
bit of moisture and a passing shortwave will allow for a few
showers and thunderstorms...this afternoon over the Gila and
surrounding areas, and Tuesday east of the Rio Grande. Otherwise
dry with cool mornings and warm afternoons. We will see mid-week
winds with another passing trough to our north. Both afternoons
will be breezy to marginally windy, yet dry. To end the work week,
we will see a backdoor cool front push in from the northeast to
drop temperatures back down to seasonal normals Friday and for the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2023
Not a lot, but enough; moisture that is. We had a morning EPZ PW
of 0.67" and dewpoints in the 40s. A minor passing shortwave is
working on that moisture with some moderate depth of instability
for isolated to scattered, generally weak to moderate showers and
thunderstorms over our Gila/Blacks/Sacs mountain regions this
afternoon. Our instability and shear parameters are weak, so no
significant weather effects are expected. CAPE is at the 100-500
J/kg level, and LIs are in the -1 to -2 area. Most of the region
will stay dry this afternoon/evening, and all that is really
expected across the lowlands are moderate outflows.
For Tuesday a second shortwave trough will pass, west to east,
across northern New Mexico. With lingering moisture still in place
across areas east of the Rio Grande Valley, it will be possible to
see a few isolated showers/storms over Otero and Hidalgo counties.
The NBM was void of wx/POPs, but the mid-day HRRR runs were
putting simulated storms. In coordination with MAF, decided to ADD
some 15-25% POPS and associated WX grids in zones east of El Paso
for tomorrow afternoon and early evening. This should be the last
mention of any precipitation for this package, which goes through
Sunday.
Wednesday and Thursday we turn our attention to air velocity
parameters, as a Pacific NW upper low, opens up and spills SE over
the Great Basin. As it does this, it will stay to our north, but
will induce troughing lee of the Central Rockies, and pack
pressure gradients aloft south of the Four Corners. Thus we will
see increased winds for both days, and even overnight over our
higher terrain and slopes east of the N-S ranges. At this point no
models are suggesting speeds high enough for any special headline
products, but we will have to watch the SACs and Blacks, and
slopes east for TUE night, WED, and Wednesday night. It seems
that winds in the 20-30 mph range with gusts 40-45 mph are about
right for the forecast. The deep southwest flow will keep the
region dry, and result in warmer than normal temperatures these
days with lowland highs 85-90 and about 5-9 degrees above average.
Thursday night the upper trough axis will move across NM with a
cold front sliding south through the Central and Southern Plains,
and west into our area for Friday and Saturday. This will give us
a cooldown to end the week, and for the weekend, with cooler
mornings and near seasonal afternoons. The backdoor airmass looks
to be dry, as is the air it will push out, thus we don`t see any
precip with this (as is more common earlier in the fall).
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2023
A couple of isolated thunderstorms moved off the Black Range in
western Sierra County this afternoon and they have put out a
decent outflow boundary. The boundary has already given KTCS winds
gusts in the 30`s and the boundary will likely make it to KDMN and
KLRU in the next hour and a half. The winds at the latter two
stations should not be as strong as what we saw in KTCS. All the
gusty winds should drop off a couple of hours after sunset and the
winds look to stay generally light for the rest of the night and
into the day on Tuesday. We will occasionally see some high and
mid clouds move across the region tonight, but generally we will
have unlimited ceilings. Those clear skies look to continue on
Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 2023
Temperatures, especially in the mornings, tell us we have left the
summer season and are squarely in fall, but we still have remnants
of moisture lingering about. With a shortwave today, and another
tomorrow, that means some isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity across our mountain areas, including the
Gila/Blacks/Sacs today/early evening, and some more potential
tomorrow, over the Sacs, and lowlands of Otero and Hudspeth
Tuesday. However, most of the region will remain dry.
We focus our fire weather attention on Wednesday through Thursday
night as we see a duration of increased southwest winds across the
region. A NW Pacific low pressure system will open up and slowly
track across the Great Basin towards the Four Corners area during
this period. That will result in the familiar lee trough in the
plains to our east, and a tighter pressure gradient aloft overhead.
These are the features that induce breezy to windy conditions across
the area. Thus we expect some breezy to windy afternoons both days,
with gusty overnights over elevated terrain and lee east slopes and
passes. The airmass will be quite dry, and temperatures will be
warmer than normal. This pattern IS the cause for the secondary fire
weather concern we see in the fall season, so heads up for these two
days.
They system finally passes Thursday night, which allows a backdoor
cool front to drop in from the plains and from the north. This
will bring in marginally cooler air, and keep the region dry. Thus
lighter winds, from the N and E Friday into the weekend, with
cooler weather, and continued dry conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 61 88 61 90 / 0 10 10 0
Sierra Blanca 54 80 53 83 / 0 20 20 0
Las Cruces 55 85 54 86 / 0 10 10 0
Alamogordo 54 83 55 84 / 0 10 10 0
Cloudcroft 41 60 42 61 / 0 20 20 0
Truth or Consequences 54 83 53 84 / 10 0 0 0
Silver City 52 77 51 76 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 54 86 52 87 / 10 0 0 0
Lordsburg 54 83 53 85 / 10 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 61 86 60 88 / 0 10 10 0
Dell City 52 85 53 87 / 0 20 20 0
Fort Hancock 56 88 56 90 / 0 10 10 0
Loma Linda 56 79 55 81 / 0 10 10 0
Fabens 56 87 56 89 / 0 10 10 0
Santa Teresa 55 84 55 86 / 0 10 10 0
White Sands HQ 60 85 60 86 / 0 10 10 0
Jornada Range 54 84 53 85 / 10 10 10 0
Hatch 54 86 53 87 / 10 10 10 0
Columbus 57 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 53 83 53 84 / 0 10 10 0
Mayhill 46 72 46 73 / 0 20 30 0
Mescalero 45 71 45 72 / 0 20 20 0
Timberon 44 70 44 71 / 0 20 20 0
Winston 44 76 43 76 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 51 82 50 83 / 10 0 10 0
Spaceport 52 83 51 84 / 10 10 10 0
Lake Roberts 43 75 44 75 / 20 0 10 0
Hurley 51 81 50 82 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 47 84 48 84 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 50 78 50 79 / 10 0 0 0
Faywood 54 80 53 81 / 10 0 0 0
Animas 54 84 53 86 / 10 0 0 0
Hachita 54 84 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 55 84 53 85 / 10 0 0 0
Cloverdale 55 79 53 80 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
905 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
Isolated light showers have been developing across southern portions
of Cumberland Plateau Region over the last hour. Latest HRRR and
NAMNest solutions showing potential for this isolated convection
to spread eastward potentially through 10/07Z as weak upper level
shortwave moves northwest to southeast across locations south of
I-40 Corridor during this time frame. Tweaked hourly temperature,
dewpoint, sky condition, and wind speed/direction grids blending
them with previously forecasted associated late evening gridded
values. Current temperature trends generally in line with
forecasted lows. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
A weak surface boundary sits just to our north this afternoon,
hence the cloudiness and spotty light showers we`ve been observing
today. Look for the moisture to dissipate over the next several
hours, and really no air mass change in spite of the surface
boundary. Daytime temperatures will continue to warm gradually
during the next few days, although our cool nights will stick
around.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
High pressure will move across Middle Tennessee probably Tuesday
night, so that by Wednesday we`ll enjoy some nice return flow that
will also help set up our next rain chances later in the week.
There is a small possibility of shower development Thursday and
Thursday night, but more likely starting on Friday with the
approach of the next cold front. Still, there isn`t a great deal
of moisture attending this system; total QPF values from Thursday
afternoon through Friday night range from around 0.1" near the
Tennessee River to >0.25" in some areas east of I-65. So this next
cold front isn`t going to be a big weather-maker, although we can
expect a significant drop in temperature during the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023
VFR conditions continue. Light, variable winds expected through
18Z, with variability between NW, N, and NE. Winds will finally
settle back to NW by 18Z, with speeds between 5 to 10 kts for the
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 49 75 51 78 / 0 0 10 10
Clarksville 44 72 49 78 / 0 0 10 10
Crossville 45 69 45 69 / 10 0 0 0
Columbia 49 76 52 78 / 10 0 0 0
Cookeville 47 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 10
Jamestown 44 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 10
Lawrenceburg 49 76 51 77 / 20 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 49 76 50 79 / 10 0 0 10
Waverly 46 73 52 77 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Adcock