Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/09/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
509 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Gorgeous fall weather will continue through Tuesday with above
normal temperatures and light winds. The exceptions will be with
a few showers and thunderstorms across western NM each day. Gusty
outflow winds and brief rainfall are possible. West to southwest
winds will then increase Wednesday with gusts of 35 to 45 mph in
many areas along with very warm temperatures and some localized
blowing dust. A strong cold front is expected to plow through NM
Thursday on strong northwest winds with colder temperatures. This
airmass may bring a widespread freeze to northern and western NM.
Most of eastern NM and areas from Albuquerque south are expected
to remain above freezing Friday morning. Delightful weather will
return for the weekend with warming temperatures, light winds, and
partly cloudy skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Amplified ridging over the Intermountain West is evident on water
vapor imagery this afternoon as embedded disturbances track across
AZ and western NM. Modest moisture coming up the spine of the
Sonoran Desert is helping to give rise to isolated to scattered
thunderstorms of a drier nature across the Continental Divide and
westward. While little to no appreciable rainfall is expected with
this activity, very dry low levels could lend to gusty and erratic
outflow. The HRRR and RRFS both should the potential of an outflow
making it to the RGV later this afternoon into the early evening but
given the timing near sunset, the influence will likely be more seen
via change of direction and slight increase in wind speeds. Storm
activity will diminish rapidly after sunset. Drier air settles in
overnight most areas once again, with minimum temperatures being
within a few degrees of the previous night`s readings.
The slug of modest moisture filters into southeastern AZ again
tomorrow, joining a touring shortwave over the region. Drier air
will work to limit afternoon showers and thunderstorms over a bulk
of the CWA, but isolated to scattered storms will remain possible
over the southwest high terrain. Above average temperatures will be
commonplace, with very little departure from readings seen today.
The modest influx of moisture will give rise to a bit more
widespread mid-level clouds, most of which will clear out after
sunset. Modulating H5 heights will help to keep overnight lows
within a few degrees of Sunday night`s readings.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Flow aloft will begin to increase over NM Tuesday as an upper level
storm system approaches the PacNW with a powerful 150kt jet streak.
Overall pleasant weather is still expected but with localized breezy
west winds by late day. Temps will warm around 5 to 10F above normal
with mostly sunny skies. Ridge top winds strengthen more by Tuesday
night as the upper jet approaches from the northwest. Warm advection
ahead of this system with deep mixing will lead to widespread breezy
to windy conditions with temps ~10F above normal Wednesday. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for areas near Las Vegas, Taos, and Gallup,
as well as some of the high terrain. Localized blowing dust is also
possible by the afternoon. West/southwest winds will remain breezy
Wednesday night as the core of the upper jet enters the Four Corners
and the boundary layer stays mixed. East slope areas will remain
gusty for much of the night.
Confidence remains moderate to high that a strong cold front will
plow thru NM from northwest to southeast on Thursday. The timing is
slightly faster on recent model runs. Frontal passage thru the ABQ
metro area is now centered around early to mid-morning Thursday with
a blustery northwest wind shift. Northwest winds will remain breezy
for much of the day before tapering off by mid to late afternoon.
Favored northwest flow areas like Clines Corners may see a few more
gusts near 45 mph Thursday but coverage is limited compared to
Wednesday. An exceptionally dry airmass moving into the region in
the wake of this cold front will allow min temps Thursday night to
tumble after sunset with lighter winds. Several areas of northern
and western NM that have not seen their first fall freeze have a
moderate to high chance on Friday morning. The latest NBM freeze
probabilities for Farmington, Santa Fe, Las Vegas, and Raton are
above 40%. This freeze would be right on time for mid October in
these areas.
Friday and Saturday will feature a return to more tranquil weather
with decreasing winds and slowing warming temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Isold to sct high based gusty showers and short lived tstms over
the higher terrain of nrn and wrn NM at 08/23Z will continue to
track to the east and southeast through 09/03Z, possibly impacting
the RGV, before diminishing. Isold activity may persist over wrn
NM aft 09/06Z. Isold to sct high based gusty showers and tstms to
redevelop over the higher terrain of nrn and central NM aft
09/18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Light winds and a modest increase in moisture will keep critical
fire weather conditions at bay through the first half of the week.
Above normal temperatures will moderate, with very little departure
each day until Thursday. Overnight recoveries will be a mosaic of
good to fair most areas through midweek. A potent upper low moving
into the Pacific Northwest will allow an amplified jet to dip into
the Great Basin Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The jet will
setup just to our north on Wednesday, setting the stage for breezy
to windy west winds that afternoon. Currently, minimum RH above 15
percent is limiting critical fire weather conditions, widespread
elevated and near-critical fire weather conditions will exist for a
majority of zones. Breezy to windy conditions return on Thursday,
with the highest winds favoring the central mountains and eastward.
The dry westerly flow works to bring minimum RH values in and around
critical thresholds Thursday afternoon, creating a few hours of
critical fire weather conditions across the northeast highlands and
their adjacent plains, as well as the east central plains. While
drier air is expected in the wake of the system`s passage on Friday,
a drastic reduction to winds will help to limit fire weather
concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 42 79 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 35 74 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 40 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 5
Gallup.......................... 35 76 35 76 / 0 5 5 0
El Morro........................ 38 72 37 72 / 5 10 5 0
Grants.......................... 34 75 36 76 / 0 10 5 0
Quemado......................... 42 72 41 73 / 30 20 10 0
Magdalena....................... 46 74 46 75 / 10 20 5 0
Datil........................... 42 71 42 71 / 20 20 10 0
Reserve......................... 41 76 40 78 / 10 40 5 0
Glenwood........................ 52 81 52 82 / 10 20 10 0
Chama........................... 37 68 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 48 71 47 71 / 0 0 0 5
Pecos........................... 45 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 33 70 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 32 66 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 20 66 22 64 / 0 0 0 0
Taos............................ 35 73 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 41 70 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 42 78 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 47 73 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 44 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 77 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 52 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 47 81 47 82 / 0 5 5 0
Bernalillo...................... 47 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 45 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 48 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 45 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 51 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 50 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 51 82 50 84 / 5 10 5 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 71 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 48 74 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 45 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 77 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 44 74 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 46 75 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 47 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 52 78 53 79 / 0 5 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 47 72 47 71 / 0 10 0 0
Capulin......................... 43 72 43 72 / 5 5 5 0
Raton........................... 41 76 40 76 / 5 0 0 0
Springer........................ 40 77 40 78 / 5 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 43 74 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 47 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 46 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 47 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 48 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 47 81 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 50 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 51 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 52 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 54 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 52 81 52 82 / 0 10 0 0
Elk............................. 49 77 49 79 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1007 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Key Messages:
- Cool temperatures are expected through the week with highs
mostly in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.
- Frost formation overnight is likely prompting a Frost Advisory
for the entire area. Additional Frost/Freeze headlines may be
needed tomorrow due to overnight lows dipping down to the low
30s for many.
- A potentially significant rainmaker is possible late week
leading to wet, blustery and cool conditions.
Overview:
An upper-level low lingering through mid-week will continue to
pinwheel down some reinforcing CAA through the first half of this
week which will keep us on the cool side with widespread highs in
the upper 40s and middle 50s through Tuesday with lows dipping down
to the lower to middle 30s, potentially getting into the 20s in
north-central Wisconsin depending on cloud cover. Frost/Freeze is
likely for portions of the region both Monday and Tuesday morning
however, it is contingent on what cloud cover and winds look like
early in the week with stratus development possible at times. As
Wednesday approaches, there is some signal that weak ridging could
build in for a very brief time allowing us to warm up marginally
with highs reaching the upper 50s, potentially getting to around 60
in the river valleys and further south. This will be short lived as
our next system will roll off the rockies into the Great Plains
region mid-week which will be our next significant chance of
precipitation. This system will keep us cool but likely with
increasing cloud cover, will keep our lows warmer likely in the
40s for most. This would suggest a more cold, damp and potentially
blustery end to the week with increasing pressure gradient winds
on the backside of the system.
Frost/Freeze Potential Tonight and Monday Night:
Temperatures will remain below normal to kick of the week with highs
Monday and Tuesday in the upper 40s to middle 50s for the region,
overnight lows will bottom out in the lower to middle 30s,
potentially getting down as low as the upper 20s in north-central
Wisconsin. This is a result of some CAA behind pieces of shortwave
energy caught in the cyclonic flow around the upper-level low
centered just to the north of the Great Lakes. With temperatures
dipping close to the freezing mark during the morning hours early
next week, frost/freeze is a concern considering this is the coldest
air our CWA has seen thus far.
Given the current stratus deck over portions of the region in place
this afternoon, there is some uncertainty in the guidance that makes
the frost/freeze potential more challenging for tonight. Short-range
guidance continues to hold onto the cloud cover into the
overnight hours in many spots with the 08.15z RAP showing the
fairly robust saturation at 700mb along the I-94 corridor going
into tonight. Furthermore, the NBM 90th percentile wanting to
show increased sky cover through Wednesday does not completely
rule out the possibility of cloud cover holding on longer than
forecast for tonight which lowers confidence in frost potential.
However, with lows dipping down into the lower to middle 30s, a
Frost Advisory has been issued for the our CWA tomorrow morning
per collaboration with other neighboring offices.
Temperatures tomorrow night both in the national blend and short-
range guidance have trended slightly cooler across western
portions of our forecast area with lows potentially nearing the 30
degree mark. This is likely due to increasing confidence in
clearing skies to our west with more uncertainty on cloud cover
across north-central Wisconsin. Model soundings are having fairly
strong agreement on some mid-level saturation building in early
Tuesday associated with increased cloud cover from the cyclonic
flow around the upper-level low. Consequently, The 08.00z HREF
tries to sneak in some middle and high-level clouds into northern
portions of our CWA late Monday which the current NBM also has
picked up on. Regardless, confidence is a bit higher for Monday
night into Tuesday morning for a widespread frost/freeze event as
the majority of our region should be more cleared out. As a
result, frost/freeze headlines may be issued for Monday night into
Tuesday morning.
Late Week Rainfall Event:
As the upper-low responsible for our plunge into fall advects to our
east, some brief, weak upper-level ridging will sneak its way into
our region Wednesday providing some WAA ahead of our next system.
This could nudge our temperatures up a few degrees with highs being
in the upper 50s to near 60 in spots. This will be short-lived
though with a disturbance coming off the rockies into the Great
Plains moving eastward towards our region. The system will progress
near, but possibly to our south, subjecting our region to our first
fall-like event with a more stratiform type rain with the majority
of convection and severe potential remaining to our south as shown
in the CSU machine learning severe outlooks for Day 4 and 5.
While the exact track of the low likely will wobble around, which
could certainly change how the forecast looks over the coming
days. Probabilistic guidance is growing more confident in a
significant rainfall event for our region. Both the 08.12z EC
ensembles and 08.12z GEFS are in fairly good agreement with a high
degree of confidence (60-90% chance) of seeing over 0.5", modest
chances (40-60% chance) of over 1", and even some members wanting
to push the 2" mark with 10-20% probabilities. The deterministic
runs of the 08.12z EC and 08.12z GFS have anywhere from 1-2" of
QPF along for our region, with the 08.12z GFS keeping the bulk of
precipitation south of I-90. Furthermore, one change of note with
the 08.12z GFS from the previous run is a slight shift south,
will monitor to see if this trend continues. Either way, This
certainly could be a very efficient rainfall event with a robust
moisture feed in the warm sector shown in the 08.00z EC with
strong 850mb moisture transport and PWATs being upwards of 200% of
normal, especially further south. This could be very beneficial
for the drought if current guidance verifies as many areas that
could see significant rainfall amounts are our extreme drought
(D3) areas.
An additional possibility with this system is the pressure gradient
winds behind the low as it deepens and pushes out of our region.
Current forecast is to have winds be fairly blustery overnight
Friday with gusts reaching the 30-40 mph range. This could vary
slightly depending on the exact track of the low and how much the
surface pressure deepens as the low progresses through our region.
Regardless, this would be an impressive winter storm if we saw this
system a couple of months from now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with some
lingering mid clouds overnight and otherwise mainly patches of
high clouds into Monday. Light northerly winds will increase
diurnally on Monday with some gusts to 20 kts before subsiding
again by sunset.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
The period will be mostly dry and warm. Only the Gila and adjacent
lowlands will see a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Highs will warm back above normal through mid-week along with
breezy afternoons. A cool front will bring temperatures back
closer to normal for Friday into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
We sit beneath a broad UL ridge while on the eastern side of
surface high pressure. The result is seasonal warmth with some
moisture seeping up the west side of the ridge. It`s enough
moisture to give AZ and the Gila some showers and thunderstorms,
but elsewhere, it`s pretty quiet with light winds. We expect more
of the same tomorrow with a bit better chance for showers and
storms across the Gila. The HRRR is indicating some of those
showers/ storms will drift into the adjacent lowlands. Highs will
warm as well as westerly flow aloft sets in, eroding the early-
fall air mass.
For the rest of the period, we enter quasi-zonal flow. Our
temperatures will warm back well above normal, nearing 90 in El
Paso while meaningful moisture sweeps out of the area. A
strengthening trough will shift southeastward across the Northern
Rockies on Wednesday and Thursday giving us a pair of breezy days.
The day with the strongest winds will be Thursday as the trough
makes its closest approach across CO into NE. This trough will
also push a cool front our way allowing highs to drop back to near
or just below normal for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. An outflow
boundary from storms in the Gila Region is heading south towards
KDMN but is a couple hours away still. Gusty N winds and BLDU are
possible at KDMN from the outflow later this evening. KTCS also
may see outflow winds from the west this evening. Otherwise,
mainly SKC continues with generally light and variable winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 2023
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Gila
this afternoon and tomorrow. Dry low levels may lead to isolated
dry lightning. Otherwise, minimal fire concerns are expected with
afternoon min RH values in the teens and winds topping out around
10 MPH. Winds are expected to pick up Wednesday and Thursday with
continued min RH values in the teens, but red flag conditions are
not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 60 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 50 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 54 84 54 85 / 0 10 20 0
Alamogordo 52 82 54 83 / 0 10 20 0
Cloudcroft 39 61 41 61 / 0 10 0 0
Truth or Consequences 54 81 54 83 / 10 20 20 0
Silver City 51 78 51 77 / 10 20 20 0
Deming 52 85 53 86 / 0 10 20 0
Lordsburg 52 85 54 84 / 0 10 0 0
West El Paso Metro 59 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 50 84 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 52 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 54 78 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 54 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 54 83 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 58 85 59 86 / 0 10 20 0
Jornada Range 53 83 54 85 / 0 10 20 0
Hatch 52 85 53 87 / 0 10 20 0
Columbus 55 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 52 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 46 73 46 73 / 0 10 0 0
Mescalero 43 72 45 72 / 0 10 20 0
Timberon 42 70 44 71 / 0 10 0 0
Winston 45 76 44 76 / 10 20 20 0
Hillsboro 50 82 51 83 / 10 20 20 0
Spaceport 51 83 51 84 / 0 10 20 0
Lake Roberts 43 77 43 76 / 30 30 20 0
Hurley 50 83 51 82 / 10 10 20 0
Cliff 47 85 46 85 / 10 20 20 0
Mule Creek 50 80 50 79 / 10 20 20 0
Faywood 52 80 52 81 / 10 20 20 0
Animas 51 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 52 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 52 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 54 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1018 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023
The main change to the evening forecast was to feature more in the
way of clouds. Some clearing worked its way into central and
northern zones, allowing for temperatures to dip down into the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Satellite loops show thickening cloud
cover over southwest zones and into places like Kalamazoo and
South Haven with a larger area of clouds dropping southwestward
through northern Lower MI and into our northern zones. These
clouds dropping down from northern Lower MI are expected to fill
in much of the CWA later tonight. Thus frost is still possible but
with clouds expected to move back into any cleared out area, the
duration and coverage of frost is expected to be limited. Also,
the 00z HRRR suggests the winds will increase prior to daybreak as
the deep low pressure system over western Quebec continues to
retrograde west leading to an increasing pressure gradient for MI.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Another marginal night for radiational cooling with some
persistent winds and clouds in cyclonic flow on the periphery
between the retrograding low across southeast Canada and surface
ridging well off to the west over the Northern Plains. Similar to
last night, we expect partial clearing and some decoupling of
winds away from the Lake, so once again at least scattered frost
formation inland but will hold off on an advisory.
With northwest flow on Monday we will see lake effect rain
showers becoming concentrated in an area of low level convergence
across the southwest zones. Flow goes west Monday night as the low
retrogrades and deeper moisture will be aligned across the
northern forecast area with some entrainment of drier air across
the southern half of Lower Michigan leading to higher rain chances
across the north.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023
The long term period will be very fall like with cool temperatures,
plenty of cloud cover and precipitation in most forecast periods.
Monday night the upper low will be overhead which will essentially
continue to be the case into mid week. The upper low though will be
moving slightly off to the north and east with time, losing a bit of
its influence on our area weather. We have chances for rain showers
in the forecast Monday night into Tuesday and then carry a dry
forecast for Tuesday night as the surface pattern will essentially
evolve into a col.
That dry forecast period Tuesday night is essentially the only 12
hour period of the long term when we do not have precipitation
chances in the forecast. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night a
surface warm front will be situated just off to our south bringing
high chances for rain. The surface low will be moving through the
region Friday into Friday night with the high chances for rain
continuing. An upper low settles into the area into the weekend with
more chances for rainfall.
The WPC 7 day qpf forecast for Southwest Lower Michigan has 2 to 4
inches of rain across all of the southwest quarter of Lower
Michigan. If those type of totals verify, which is not a given at
that range in the forecast, we would be looking at some rivers
reaching action stage (bankfull) and the possibility of a few
locations approaching flood stage. Plenty of time to watch trends in
the forecast and dial in amounts. So, at this point we are in a
monitor phase with respect to 7 day precip totals.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Scattered lake effect rain showers will continue in vicinity of
MKG and AZO much of the night, providing temporary ceilings below
5000 feet and erratic/gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will relax
tonight and become light from WSW, especially in locations
farther east away from Lake Michigan, with VFR prevailing. Patches
of frost may develop on some surfaces by morning. A ribbon of
relatively dry air and a lowering convective cap (temperature
inversion) will reduce the number and intensity of lake effect
showers over the area on Monday. However, MVFR ceilings may remain
in areas north of Ludington / Big Rapids / Mount Pleasant,
especially late Monday. West winds will become gusty during the
day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023
No changes to the Small Craft Advisory. Northwest winds will
increase a bit tonight but remain below gales. Winds and waves
will only slowly decrease on Tuesday as low pressure finally moves
off to the east allowing a weak surface ridge of high pressure to
build in across Lake Michigan on Wednesday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Ostuno
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
846 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023
Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction
grids blending them with associated previously forecasted late
evening gridded values. Current mid state temperature trends
generally in line with forecasted lows. Latest HRRR in line with
previous model suites in depicting increasing cloudiness as
tonight progresses, especially for northeastern locations.
Sent out an updated suite of forecast products just a few minutes
ago mainly to refresh AFM/PFM product timeliness. Remainder of
forecast continues to be on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023
After a chilly start with patchy frost, temps have warmed into
the 60s under sunny skies. West winds were kicking up to 15-20mph
at times. For tonight through Monday, a little shortwave will
rotate around the big trough over the eastern states. This wave
will bring patches of clouds and will help keep winds stirred up a
bit. So, tonight will not be nearly as chilly as last night. On
Monday, patchy clouds will be thickest across our northeast
counties, and there could be just enough lift to generate a light
passing shower. Elsewhere, there will be a mix of sun and clouds.
Temps will be warmer tomorrow, mostly in the 70s. Once again,
west winds will pick up to 10-20mph.
After the shortwave trough passes, skies will be clear Monday
night with lows in the 40s area-wide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023
The warming trend will kick up a notch for Tuesday and Wednesday
as upper level winds become more zonal. Highs will climb above
80 for some areas. There will be a couple of waves passing north
and south of our area that will bring some cloud patches and
varying wind directions. A few showers could creep up into our
southern counties, but for the most part, a dry pattern will
continue.
Late week, we could see scattered showers, especially Friday as a
cold front approaches. There will be enough instability for a
thunderstorms as well. After the front, another shot of chilly
early fall air will arrive for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 2023
VFR conditions continue. Biggest forecast note will be our winds,
which could become gusty (~15 to 20kts) by the early morning
through the afternoon at CSV/SRB. Winds will become southwesterly
overnight, before becoming northwesterly once again near the end
of the current TAF period across the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 50 75 49 76 / 10 10 0 0
Clarksville 50 72 45 73 / 10 10 0 0
Crossville 41 67 43 69 / 10 10 0 0
Columbia 47 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 45 69 46 71 / 10 10 0 0
Jamestown 43 65 43 68 / 10 20 0 0
Lawrenceburg 46 75 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 46 75 49 78 / 10 10 0 0
Waverly 49 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Adcock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
843 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2023
.UPDATE...Our next weather disturbance in the form of an upper-
level trough continues to approach the coastline this evening,
eventually leading to the return to precipitation west to east
across the region on Monday. The latest model guidance remains in
relatively good agreement with one another, however, compared to
prior runs they have slowed the progression of the trough and
accompanying frontal boundary east of the Cascades by an hour or
two - thus PoPs from the previous forecast were adjusted to match
this progression. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on
track with fairly wet, active, and breezy conditions anticipated
through the middle of the week. Schuldt/99
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2023/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...The short term
forecast period look to become wet, with significant amounts of
rain, beginning by Monday afternoon and evening. The models have
slowed the system down. The HRRR and NAM Nest, as well as the
other ensembles and deterministic models show this well. Therefore
have slowed the eastward progression of precipitation in the
forecast.
This afternoon, a southwest flow persists over the region, with
dry and mostly clear skies. Temperatures are warm for the time of
year, with highs expected to be about 10-15 degrees above normal.
Highs today will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in most areas,
except the higher peaks and ridge tops, which will have highs in
the mid 60s to mid 70s. The aforementioned weather system will
begin to move into the region and forecast area by Monday
afternoon and evening. Rain will spread across the Cascades by
18Z Monday. This eastward progression will continue through
overnight Monday. This will be the first wave of precipitation,
which will be associated with a negative tilted upper trough that
will move into the region. IVT analysis shows two Atmospheric
River (AR) periods to move into the region. The GEFS ensemble is
more robust with the ARs than the ECMWF, and is also further south
than the ECMWF ensemble. These ARs will have the greatest impact
along the coast, and will become much weaker the further inland
you go. Also, the first AR period (Monday night) will be slightly
stronger in inland areas than the second AR period (Tuesday and
Tuesday night).
The NBM 4.1 shows that there will be a 90-100% probability of
receiving a tenth of an inch or more rainfall over the Cascades,
and the eastern and northeast mountains. Elsewhere, probabilities
will range from 20-30% in the Lower Columbia Basin to 50-60% over
north central OR and a 70-80% probability over the Blue Mountain
Foothills, the Simcoe Highlands and the John Day Highlands.
Probabilities of receiving more than a quarter of an inch
decreases to 70-85% over the northern Blues, 30-45% over the
southern Blues, 90-100% over the Cascade crest and upper east
slopes, and mostly 5-15% elsewhere. Storm total QPF amounts
through Wednesday will be greatest in the Cascades with mostly
1-3 inches over the crest, 1-2 inches over the higher east slopes
and a half inch to an inch over the lower east slopes. The Blue
Mountains are expected to receive a half inch to an inch, with
locally higher amounts. Central OR, north central OR, and the Blue trough of
low pressure Mountain Foothills are expected to receive 2-5
tenths of an inch. The WA portion of the Lower Columbia Basin and
the Yakima and Kittitas Valleys are expected to receive mostly
0.05 inch to 0.15 of an inch while the OR portion is expected to
receive from 1-2 tenths of an inch.
There will be some weak instability Monday afternoon and evening,
such that a slight chance of thunderstorms will be warranted in
the forecast for eastern Grant County, northeast across the Blue
Mountains, Elkhorn mountains and Wallowa County. There may be a
lightning strike or two on Tuesday afternoon or evening, but the
chances (less than a 5% chance) do not warrant having thunderstorms
in the forecast for Tuesday.
The steady precipitation will become more showery on Wednesday,
going into the extended period, as the upper trough swings
northeast and out of the area by the evening. There will still be
some upslope showers over the northwest slopes of the Blue
Mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Also, the higher
mountains may receive light amounts of snow, as snow level drop to
below 6000 feet MSL by Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will also drop significantly from today to Wednesday.
Highs on Wednesday will only be in the mid 50s to lower 60s over
the lower elevations, and mostly upper 30s to upper 40s in the trough of
low pressure mountains. Going into the extended forecast period
(Wednesday onward), a slow warming trend will begin.
Winds will be light this afternoon through Monday morning, and
then south to southwest winds will begin increasing Monday
afternoon and evening as the storm system moves into the region.
The winds will temporarily decrease Monday night, but then they
will increase and shift to more westerly on Tuesday afternoon and
evening, mainly in central OR northward to the southwest Yakima
Valley. 88
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The long term will be
characterized by multiple rounds of unsettled weather with a small
break in between. Several rounds of precipitation are set to move
across the region which will cause the warm temperatures to drop and
fall like weather to persist.
Wednesday the models are in fairly good agreement with an upper
level trough that is negatively tilted and just off shore. An
embedded shortwave will make its way across the forecast area
bringing with it a swath of precipitation. Models show that this
will be the day with the highest chances of rain as well as the
highest amounts. Chances of rain along the Cascades and across the
east slopes (70-90%), along the foothills of the Blues (80-90%) and
across Central OR is 50-70%. Probabilities of 0.25 inches along the
Cascades and the east slopes is 70-90%, foothills 50-80%. However,
when looking at probabilities of at least 0.10 inches, Central OR
and through the Basin see probabilities of 30-50%. Temperatures will
also be on the decline as this weather pattern will usher in cooler
air. The EFI is beginning to signal Central OR and parts of the
Ochoco-John Day Highlands will start seeing temperatures below the
seasonal average. NBM puts high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
through the Basin and Gorge with 69% of the members in agreement of
60-65 degrees. as the leading edge of the trough moves towards the
region, southwest flow aloft will dominate and winds through much of
the region will become breezy with 60-80% chances of 20 mph or
greater sustained winds through the Gorge, Basin and along the
foothills of the Blues. Models show that the system will be slow to
move out of the region allowing precipitation to continue through
the day. By Wednesday night, the majority of the trough will be off
to the southeast and the leading edge of a transient ridge will
begin to move overhead.
Thursday and Friday will be the warmest and driest days of the
period. The models continue to be in decent agreement with the
transient ridge being over head and the precipitation being out of
the region. However, another trough is expected to move in quickly
behind the ridge. Thursday will see a few degrees warmer than
Wednesday due to the ridge with 49% of the members in agreement on
60-65 degrees while 47% say 65-70 degrees. By Friday 62% of the
members agree that temperatures through the Basin will be 65-70
degrees. However, even with theses days being the warmest of the
period, the EFI us showing that the majority of the southern portion
of the area will be below seasonal temperatures. Friday evening the
models show that the leading edge of the next upper level trough
will begin to move into the region bringing chances (15-30%) of
precipitation back to the Cascades.
Saturday and Sunday the models begin to show quite a bit of
disagreement with the incoming system. However, all models do show
some sort of upper level trough moving into the area. Clusters are
showing a few different solutions, especially with the timing,
positioning and amplitude. Regardless, precipitation will move back
over the region with light rain expected across much of the region
with 0.10 inches probable at 10-15% for everywhere except 30-50%
along the Cascades crests. EFI is showing temperatures to be nearing
normal with the NBM showing temperatures to be in the low to mid 60s
in the Basin, Gorge and Central OR elsewhere cooler in the 50s.
Bennese/90
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions expected to be prevalent
through 00Z tomorrow though localized MVFR CIGs and VSBY will be
possible after 20Z at KRDM and KBDN as a front brings rain
across the Cascades. Clear skies are expected tonight with SCT100
BKN200 developing 12Z-15Z. Clouds will increase and lower to
BKN050-100 after 18Z. In addition to rain at KRDM and KBDN, have
VCSH or -SHRA at all other TAF sites around 21Z. ASOS stations at
area terminals have been occasionally been reporting low VSBY
today. This appears to be due to spiders spinning webs on the
equipment. Webcams show no VSBY reduction and have ignored to low
ASOS VSBYs. Have not been receiving obs from KYKM for the last 4
hours, but since obs are available by other means, have issued the
TAF for that site without AMD restrictions. KRDM continues to
have southerly winds this afternoon at 10-15 kts with gusts of
20-25 kts while KBDN is less gusty with winds at or below 12 kts.
Other sites have remained below 10 kts and KRDM and KBDN will do
so by 04Z. With the system approaching tomorrow, winds will pick
up around 18Z with KDLS, KPDT, KRDM and KBDN all increasing to
generally westerly at 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts. KYKM, KPSC
and KALW will increase to southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts with
higher gusts. Perry/83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 50 73 49 61 / 0 30 40 90
ALW 53 77 51 63 / 0 30 60 90
PSC 54 77 52 64 / 0 20 20 80
YKM 51 72 44 61 / 0 30 20 90
HRI 51 76 50 64 / 0 20 30 90
ELN 51 72 44 59 / 0 30 20 80
RDM 48 65 44 58 / 0 50 20 90
LGD 50 77 47 60 / 0 20 60 90
GCD 50 76 44 59 / 0 30 40 90
DLS 56 71 51 62 / 0 70 50 100
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...83