Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/08/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Overnight lows will be the coldest the region has seen for
quite some time, with temperatures in the lower 40s expected
across the Midlands and CSRA tonight and Sunday night.
Temperatures will begin to moderate again next week. The next
chance for rain holds off until the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A cold front has moved offshore with cooler and drier air
moving into the forecast area. Winds are currently close to lake
wind criteria based on lake side observations. With a 30 kt LLJ
expected to develop overnight and considering water temps are
still in the upper 70s, a Lake Wind Advisory has been issued
through 8 AM Sunday morning. The HRRR adds confidence showing
gusts around 25 kts over the larger lakes. Winds will prevent
ideal radiational cooling conditions but cold advection will
drop temps into the 40s for the first time since May.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will be dominated by a touch of Fall
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. The deep
trough over the eastern portion of the CONUS will bring a
stretch of unseasonably cool weather to the region along with
dry conditions. Surface high pressure over the southeast will
dominate the weather through the period. There will be abundant
sunshine along with clear nights. CAA on Sunday along with
northwest surface winds will keep temperatures at or below 70s
degrees by afternoon. By Sunday night the advection becomes
neutral and on Monday H8 winds shift to the sw and WAA begins
during the afternoon. With high pressure over the region Sunday
night and winds at/near calm at the surface, the area should see
the chilliest morning of the season. Guidance has lows in the
lower to middle 40s. Have trended slightly lower than the
guidance based on local radiation scheme. Radiation scheme gives
a low of 38 at CAE and 36 at AGS. Did not go quite this low, but
did trend downward. Would not be surprised to see a few of the
traditionally cooler locations fall into the upper 30s by
sunrise monday morning. Temperatures will begin to moderate on
Monday as surface winds shift to the sw and WAA begins. Expect
afternoon highs in the middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry air will remain over the region through at least Wednesday with
high pressure over the area. The stubborn closed low in southeastern
Canada will finally lift north and east and a weak low/upper trough
will send Gulf moisture into the Southeast. Latest GFS deterministic
is extremely quick to bring moisture back into the area Thursday and
has Likely PoPs that morning. Looking at the GFS ensemble, however,
the greater chances of rain look to be Friday and Friday night. Most
members do not show any QPF until Friday morning. Given the
uncertainty this far out in the forecast, have kept most of the CWA
in Slight Chance and the southern end in Chance on Thursday. Best
chances of rain still appear to be PM Friday. Ensemble mean PWAT
values are just shy of 2 inches in the CSRA and coastal plain Friday
though the model spread is very high. Due to the large
discrepancy in timing of greatest moisture, temperatures
towards the end of the week are equally uncertain. Stayed on the
warmer side with highs close to 80 Tuesday followed by mid to
upper 70s for the remainder of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Cold front has shifted well east of the forecast area with
clearing skies as cooler and drier air moves into the region.
Wind gusts have diminished with the sunset but cold advection
overnight will keep winds up around 5 to 10 knots from the
northwest. Winds will diminish a bit during the predawn hours
before picking back up from the west at around 6 to 8 knots
after 16z. Clear skies expected on Sunday with a very dry air
mass in place.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The cold front has moved east of the area with northwesterly
winds currently 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts. Cooler and
drier air has also begun moving into the area with relative
humidity values expected to fall into the low to mid 20 percent
range this afternoon. The strong and gutsy winds combined with
the relative humidity will result in increased fire danger
through this evening.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-
077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1104 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A major cooldown is in progress through tonight with below
normal temperatures expected to last through early next week.
Expect breezy conditions with lake effect showers ramping up
downwind of Lake Erie this evening and impacting the
Alleghenies for the remainder of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cold air flowing over the still warm Grt Lks will result in
lake effect stratocu and rain showers across the NW Mtns
overnight. A boundary layer flow of around 290 degrees should
focus the bulk of the showers over the NW Mtns, where nearly
saturated model soundings up to 700mb supports POPs near 100
pct. However, a passing shower or two could also affect the
mountains north of KIPT and the Laurel Highlands.
The current breezy conditions are not expected to diminish
overnight, as the pressure gradient remains tight west of a
deepening coastal storm over Maine. RAP 925mb temps drop 4-8
degrees overnight, which should translate to an equivalent drop
at ground level given decent winds/mixing overnight. Expect
readings at dawn to range from the upper 30s over the high
terrain of Somerset County, to the mid and upper 40s across the
Susq Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cut off upper low north of Lk Ontario will remain the
dominant feature over the region through early next week,
resulting in a high confidence of below normal temperatures.
Current guidance indicates the boundary layer flow will back
enough to push lake effect activity north of the border by late
Sunday. However, a weak clipper low is progged to track south of
PA late Monday, keeping the chance of showers in the forecast
Monday/Monday evening, mainly where the southwest flow is
forced to ascend the Allegheny Plateau.
Cold temps aloft may continue to support a few diurnally-driven
showers Tuesday over the NW Mtns, which will be closest to the
upper low. Otherwise, fair weather with slightly moderating
temperatures is expected during this period, as the upper low
weakens and surface ridging builds in from the Ohio Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold temps aloft may continue to support a few diurnally-driven
showers Wednesday over the NW Mtns, which will remain closest
to the upper low. Otherwise, fair weather and a continued
moderation in temperatures is expected into midweek, as the
upper low weakens and surface ridging builds in from the Ohio
Valley.
By late next week, the bulk of medium range guidance indicates
the Southern Ontario upper low will phase with an approaching
shortwave of Pacific origin, spawning a developing surface low
over the Mid Mississippi Valley. The chance for a bit of light rain
increases by Thursday, as warm advection develops ahead of the
low. However, all guidance currently targets late Friday/early
Saturday for the best chance of significant rainfall associated
with the passage of the low level jet. Ensemble plumes support
high POPs during this time frame with a best early guess of 0.5
to 1 inch of rain.
There remains plenty of uncertainty with regards to the exact
track of the surface low and whether Central PA breaks into the
warm sector Friday. However, most guidance now tracks the
primary low north of PA with a secondary low passing south of
the state. This scenario would trap relatively cool air over the
forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
West-northwest flow over Lake Erie associated with an
approaching upper level low is allowing for scattered lake
effect rain showers to develop across the northwestern portion
of the area. These showers will continue through most of the day
on Sunday with BFD most likely to be impacted, although a few
showers will also be possible for JST.
Winds will remain gusty through the 00Z TAF period with 20-25
knot gusts likely at all sites. LLWS also seems likely tonight
as winds decrease slightly at the surface and remain around 35
to 40 knots at 2000 feet. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
over the next few hours at BFD and JST, with all other sites
remaining VFR. A brief period of IFR ceilings will be possible
around sunrise at JST, but confidence in this occurring is too
low to include it in the TAF at this time.
Outlook...
Sun Night-Tue...Cooler and breezy w/ scattered -SHRA and MVFR
cigs, mainly north/west.
Wed...Predominantly VFR.
Thur...Scattered SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Williamsport (63) and Harrisburg (66) both came within 3
degrees of tying the daily record high minimum temperature for
October 6th.
High temperatures on Sunday 10/8 will be 10 to 20 degrees below
normal, but not cold enough to challenge record low maxes.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1115 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough moving over the Great Lakes leads to a
strengthening low pressure system tonight. The low moves
through the Gulf of Maine and then through northern Maine
tonight. The low brings gusty winds and rain, especially toward
the MidCoast and parts of central Maine. This system moves off
to the northwest and brings cool Canadian air into the region
early this week. A weak disturbance moves through late Tuesday,
and then a larger system is possible late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1115 PM Update...An axis of moderate to heavy rain continues to
be directed into Penobscot Bay and points inland where an Areal
Flood Warning remains in effect until 100 AM EDT. Areas in the
Flood Warning have received upwards of 3+ inches of rain with
this axis expected to push north and east of the area around 1
AM EDT. Have mainly made minor tweaks to PoPs and QPF with the
going forecast largely intact. Farther west towards the Capital
District of Maine rainfall amounts drop off, but will continue
to monitor areas just west and northwest of the current Flood
Warning for additonal short fused flood products.
945 PM Update...Have mainly refined PoPs based on latest radar
trends and incoming 00Z guidance, which did not result in any
significant changes to the going forecast. Area gages show the
most rain has fallen across the Mid Coast with amounts exceeding
2.5 inches in some spots, although around 1 inch of this fell
before 3 PM this afternoon. Rainfall rates have largely
mitigated any hydro issues as of this writing while recent
observations have shown rates approaching 1 inch per hour in the
already saturated portions of the Mid Coast. The 00Z HRRR does
suggest another 2+ inches is possible over the next few hours
across areas in the Flood Watch and will be watching this area
closely over the next hour for any short fused flood warnings.
610 PM Update...The going forecast is in good shape with the
main focus on refining PoPs based on radar trends and recent hi
res guidance. This resulted in a slight reduction of PoPs across
much of NH as rainfall associated with a cold front along the
VT/NY border is making little progress eastward. Have also made
minor adjustments to QPF and winds based on latest hi res
guidance which lowered QPF across south-central NH into far
western Maine while QPF remains steady for areas in the Flood
Watch. The remnants of Philippe are starting to impinge upon the
Mid Coast with surface obs suggesting some rainfall rates
approaching 0.5 inches per hour. PWATs are expected to climb
over the next couple of hours bringing the threat for heavy rain
with rates approaching 1 inch per hour along the Mid Coast. The
heaviest rain looks to move in between 8 PM and 10 PM EDT and
continue for a few hours before the axis of heavy rain shifts
northeastward after midnight.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Latest RAP13 pressure analysis this afternoon shows a pair of
sub-1000mb sfc lows located to the southeast of Cape Cod with a
sfc cold front slowly moving eastward through eastern NY state
and western VT. An upper level trough is also positioned over
the Great Lakes region and is forecast to become sharply
negative as it advances eastward through tonight. Satellite
imagery shows increasing convection to the north of the low
centered southeast of Cape Cod with cooling cloud tops and even
some lightning. Latest guidance continues to indicate this low
will deepen as it moves into the Gulf of Maine this evening as
baroclinic instability increases with favorable jet dynamics for
ascent. The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows increasing theta-e
advection with increasing onshore flow along with strong
moisture convergence along the ME coastline.
Radar mosaic shows a broad area of moderate to locally heavy
rainfall stretching from the NYC metro region through southern
Quebec in association with the sfc cold front and rain continues
to stream northward towards the ME coast from the coastal low.
These two features will result in periods of moderate to locally
heavy rainfall through the first half of tonight. The latest
HREF indicates that rainfall rates will continue to increase
through this evening before peaking at around 1-2"/hr within a
few hours either side of midnight across the Mid-Coast. The 12Z HREF
ensemble mean rainfall shows the potential for between 2-3" of
rain across the Mid-Coast with PMM values of up to 5".
Unfortunately, the bulk of this rain looks to fall within
roughly an 8-hr period and therefore the risk for localized
flash flooding remains. Some small stream/river flooding also
cannot be ruled out should basin averages exceed around 2.5".
A sharp cutoff in rainfall amounts is likely the further west
one travels with about 1-2" possible from Lewiston through
Augusta and then less than 1" across most other locations.
Locally higher amounts are likely though across the southeastern
slopes of the mtns with perhaps some minor flooding issues.
Portions of southeastern NH and York County, ME may receive less
than 1/2" of additional rainfall as a dry slot pivots through.
Rainfall rates will begin to diminish at around midnight with
just some lingering showers through the pre-dawn hours.
Southeasterly winds will become westerly overnight as the cold
front crosses with a few gusts up to 25-30 mph likely with
locally higher gusts along the Mid-Coast. Overnight lows will
fall into the 40s across western NH and northern areas with low
to mid-50s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A few lingering showers are possible through early Sunday
morning but otherwise skies will become partly sunny with breezy
westerly wind gusts up to around 25-30 mph. The combination of a
cold pool aloft and upper level low to our west will result in
diurnally driven cumulus clouds and a few showers are likely to
persist across the mountains. Some of these showers may mix with
snow at elevations above 4k feet. High temperatures will range
from the 50s across the north to the lower and middle 60s south.
If hiking across the higher terrain please prepare for winter
like conditions as wind chills will be into the teens and 20s.
Partly cloudy skies will prevail on Sunday night with lows into
the 30s across the north to the lower 40s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strong and retrograding upper level low pressure system will be
situated south of Hudson`s Bay on Monday. It will remain dry however
across the region with some clouds billowing during the day.
Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 50s across the north
to the lower 60s in the south.
12Z operational models and ensemble solutions are in better
agreement rotating a weak short wave around the trough on Tuesday.
Scattered showers can be expected in all regions across western
Maine and New Hampshire.
On Wednesday and Thursday, we will still be under the influence of
the upper level, cutoff low pressure system. Scattered showers
and mostly cloudy skies will mainly retreat to the northern
mountains however, with most other areas staying dry.
A larger scale, strengthening area of low pressure will
approach New England on Friday before potentially impacting the
region with more widespread rain next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Periods of RA combined with low ceilings will
continue to result in IFR to LIFR restrictions through tonight.
SE winds will become W overnight with gusts up to 25 kts likely.
VFR returns for most on Sunday with gusty W winds of up to 30
kts. The exception may be at KHIE where a few SHRA will be
possible. VFR and lighter W winds will prevail Sunday night.
Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions south of the mountains on Monday
with occasional MVFR conditions across the higher terrain. MVFR
conditions become more widespread in lowered ceilings and scattered
showers on Tuesday. MVFR conditions continue on Wednesday and
Thursday, mainly in scattered mountain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure will cross over the Gulf of Maine
tonight with SE winds of 25-35 kts and building offshore seas of
6-12 ft. Winds will become W after midnight and continue through
Sunday with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds and seas will then begin
to decrease on Sunday night. A high risk for rip currents
remains.
Long Term...Southwesterly winds will be on the decrease on Monday
with seas taking time to subside. The flow backs to the south on
Tuesday ahead of a weak trough of low pressure. A relatively dry
flow develops over the waters for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast to impact portions
of the area through tonight as deep moisture from the remnants
of Philippe pass through the region. The heaviest rainfall
between 2 to 3 inches, locally 4 to 5 inches, is currently
forecast to fall from the Kennebec Valley eastward, with some
enhancement in the mountains. Elsewhere 1 to 2 inches, locally
lesser amounts in southeast NH and far southwestern ME are
expected. Models have favored the development of a dry slot,
which will favor a tight west to east gradient in the rainfall
totals. Despite several days of dry weather the soil moisture
levels remain somewhat moist for the time of year given the
winding down of the growing season. As the rain starts it will
be able to infiltrate, however, the heavier rains this evening
could overwhelm soils resulting in rapid runoff. Any flood
impacts are likely localized to small stream rises and urban
flooding (poor drainage and low lying areas) primarily tonight.
Fall leaf debris blocking drains may contribute to minor
flooding especially in urban areas. Rises are expected on area
rivers especially headwaters of the Kennebec, but at this time
river flooding is not expected.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ009-014-021-022-
026>028.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ023>028.
NH...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ151>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schroeter
NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cannon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
700 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1220 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023
Heat Advisory expires tonight as temperatures cool and onshore
flow returns this afternoon/evening. Cool down to below normal
temps by Monday still expected with a chance of rain through
midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1220 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023
Temperatures still running a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago
as the high pressure ridge influence weakens and we start to make
an earlier turn to onshore flow. Evident by several accounts
including much cooler temps at many coastal sites and public
reports, winds have started to turn onshore much earlier today
than the previous two days. Inland areas will take longer to feel
the effects, but this will be the first factor contributing to
cooler temps tonight and tomorrow. By tomorrow, an embedded
shortwave around the periphery of a deep upper low in the Gulf of
Alaska will make an approach to central and northern CA, deepening
the marine layer and beginning to cool temps much more effectively.
High temperatures Sunday on track to be about 5 to 10 degrees
cooler, most notably along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023
It`s looking more and more promising that we will start the work
week with below normal temperatures and a chance of rain for most
of the area generally north of Big Sur. The first shortwave trough
looks to move through Monday morning with rain chances increasing
in the North Bay, spreading southward through the rest of the Bay
Area through the afternoon. This will likely be the bulk of the
rainfall from this event, but another weak disturbance makes its
way through afterwards on Tuesday to bring another light shot of
rain, again mainly to the North Bay. After all is said and done,
the North Bay has about a 40-70% chance of seeing at least 0.5" of
rain, better chances in northern Napa and Sonoma counties and
coastal areas. Further south, the ocean side of the SF Peninsula
has about a 30-40% chance of seeing at least a half inch, while
the rest of the Bay Area has about a 10-15% chance (less for San
Jose). Winds will be slightly breezy out ahead of the front, but
overall this still looks to be a mostly beneficial rain event for
those that do receive rain. Areas further south in interior
Monterey and San Benito counties have a slim chance of seeing much
outside of a hundredth of an inch or so. A drying trend will take
place as the system exits through late week, but longer range
guidance has been advertising another weak system moving in for
next weekend. Confidence is still weak at this point, so stay
tuned for more information.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023
Northerly ACV-SFO pressure gradient is 5.7 mb, WMC-SFO 6.1 mb,
both are stronger than forecast by recent NAM, HRRR output. SFO-
SAC is 0.1 mb. The lower level temperature inversion remains
compressed, the marine layer is still compressed varying from sea
level to 300 feet. Will need more time to assess the gradient
picture, possibly amending for a later stratus and fog return on
the immediate coastline and whether there`ll be any stratus and/or
fog reaching into the Bay Area tonight and Sunday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...For now, high confidence VFR extending through
the evening. Not certain low stratus ceiling and/or fog reach SFO
Sunday morning, for now decided to scale back ceiling to scattered
clouds 900 feet. Otherwise onshore wind gradually easing through
the evening to light wind overnight and Sunday morning. Onshore
wind 10 to 15 knots from late morning to evening Sunday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate to high confidence VFR forecast
extending to mid evening, increasing stratus and/or fog by late
evening and overnight. The marine layer so far remaining compressed
to near sea level, ceilings and visibilities LIFR-IFR tonight and
Sunday morning. If ACV-SFO pressure gradient stays near 5 mb then
due to NW coastal winds improves chances for low ceilings arriving
tonight and Sunday morning. Sky clearing to VFR by late Sunday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 441 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023
Generally calm waters continue as gentle to moderate northwesterly
breezes persist through tomorrow. A weather system approaching
the local waters early Monday into Tuesday will bring increasing
winds and seas. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the system,
with northwesterly winds behind it. Hazards for small craft
operations are possible for mid to late week with increasing winds
and seas as a moderate period northwest swell approaches.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006-508-512-
513-528>530.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...SO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023
Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction
grids blending them with previously forecasted associated hourly
late evening gridded values. Current regional temperature trends
continue to be in line with forecasted lows. Latest HRRR 2 Meter
temperature forecast supports both current forecasted lows and
associated overnight frost advisory for locations generally east
of I-65 Corridor also. Remainder of forecast continues to be on
track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023
Early this afternoon, our first taste of fall was underway with
mainly sunny skies, temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and a
northwest breeze. The surface high will move over the area tonight
bringing chilly temps. Clearing skies and light winds will set the
stage for areas of frost east of I-65 where a Frost Advisory is in
place. A few locations along the Plateau (particularly Cumberland
County / Crossville area) may even get to the freezing mark. For
areas west of I-65, a few daybreak frost patches cannot be ruled
out for sheltered areas.
For Sunday, it will be mainly sunny and not as cool. Temps will
rebound well into the 60s thanks to a warming west wind.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023
A shortwave will pass to our north Sunday night through Monday,
but its influence will be felt across our area with some wind
shifts, patchy clouds, and slight temp swings. Sunday night will
not be as cool as tonight, so no frost is expected with lows
mostly in the 40s. Monday will be a little warmer with highs
reaching the lower 70s for many areas. After the shortwave
passes, Monday night will be a little cooler again, but it looks
frost-free.
Looking ahead, some more ups and downs are expected as a series
of shortwaves crosses the region. Temps will warm noticeably
Wednesday and Thursday as heights build and south winds kick in.
The approach of a stronger northern stream trough will bring some
showers Thursday into Friday followed by another shot of cool air
for next weekend. There are still model differences with how much
rain this system will bring and exactly when that rain will fall
and how much cool air will follow. So, confidence on specific
temps and pops for Thursday through Saturday is lower than usual.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Oct 7 2023
VFR conditions continue. Patchy fog possible overnight, but not
enough confidence to include in TAFs currently. Winds will calm
overnight, shifting from northwesterly to westerly by tomorrow
afternoon. Expect daytime winds to climb near 10kts, returning to
calm after sunset tomorrow evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 43 69 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 41 69 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
Crossville 34 60 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
Columbia 39 69 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 37 62 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
Jamestown 36 60 44 66 / 0 0 0 10
Lawrenceburg 39 68 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 39 69 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 40 68 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for Bedford-Cannon-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Grundy-Jackson-Macon-
Marshall-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Rutherford-Smith-Sumner-
Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White-Wilson.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Adcock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1118 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass to the east this evening. Low pressure
will deepen across eastern Canada tonight into Sunday, then
remaining nearly stationary and weakening through mid week. A
frontal system may impact the area at the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Temperatures and dewpoints were on track comparing forecast to
observed values. Lowered POPs for showers to remove any mention
of showers from the forecast. Expecting dry conditions and
eventual decrease of clouds overnight from west to east.
A gusty W/NW flow will eventually diminish to 15 to 20 kt. It
will also turn much cooler through the night with lows generally
in the 40s to around 50. This will be about 10-15 degrees
cooler than the previous night. It will also clear from west to
east overnight into the early morning hours of Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The closed upper low will lift up into eastern Canada Sunday
with deepening surface low pressure becoming occluded. This low
will then become stationary and weaken through the first half
of the upcoming week. This will result in a brisk W flow and
below normal temperatures. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, with lows Sunday night in the 40s in
outlying areas to around 50 across the NYC metro.
In addition, with cyclonic flow there should be instability cu
each afternoon. Have even included a slight chance of showers
Sunday afternoon across Orange County NY. The HRRR has bit more
coverage to the east of this area, but confidence is too low at
this time to add elsewhere. In addition, shortwave energy
rounding the base of the upper low could produce a few showers
Sunday night. For the time, have kept these east of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper low over eastern Canada gradually fills and weakens
through the end of the week. This will allow for a slow warmup
with a low chance of showers Monday night into Tuesday as
additional shortwave energy rounds the base of the upper low.
Warmer and more humid conditions develop late in the week with
an approaching frontal system. Rain chances increase during
this time. The heaviest rain at this time looks to hold off
until late Friday or Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will continue to move east of the region this evening.
Low pressure retrogrades from Northern New England to Southeast
Canada late tonight into Sunday.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
VFR overall conditions and mainly dry conditions expected
overnight through the rest of the TAF period.
Winds will be NW tonight near 10-13 kts with gusts at times to
around 20 kt. Winds Sunday will be more W without much change in
speed but with some peak gusts for some terminals closer to 25
kt during late morning into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts could be more intermittent during the TAF period.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night: VFR. W wind gusts around 20 kt initially. Gusts
diminish early evening outside of NYC terminals and by late evening
into overnight for NYC terminals.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers at night with MVFR
possible. SW winds G15-20kt during the day.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers with MVFR possible,
mainly day into early eve. S-SW winds G15-20kt, mainly during
the day.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR. Winds SW-S winds G15-20 kt,
mainly during the afternoon into evening on Thursday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty W winds will bring SCA to all waters through the day on
Sunday. For the ocean, seas will likely remain above 5 ft Sunday
night with gradually diminishing winds.
Seas on the ocean are progged to be in the 3-5 ft range Mon-
Tue, then less on Wed. Seas then build again on Thu ahead of a
strong frontal sys. Otherwise, winds are progged to remain blw
SCA lvls Mon-Thu attm.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected Sun-Fri.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period SE swells from the remnant low of Phillipe will
build to 6 to 9 ft tonight, presenting the likelihood of
additional beach erosion/escarpment from an east to west sweep
of 5 to 7 ft breaking surf. Because water levels are not
astronomically high, the dune erosion threat during times of
high tide is isolated. Swells subside Sunday into Sunday night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...