Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/07/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
948 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
Developing surface wave near Muskegon has been nearly stationary
the past couple of hours. This feature has focused the heaviest
rain around Muskegon to Holland and into Grand Rapids. Based off
of the SPC Meso page, the MU CAPE was up to around 500 J/kg over
Lake MI and around 250 J/kg for the lakeshore counties. This is
the region where we expect the most thunderstorms. Further inland
that potential looks isolated based on the limited instability. We
will need to monitor the flood risk with QPF values now up to over
a inch in a few spots and the axis of low level convergence likely
to remain nearly stationary for another 1 to 3 hours. The latest
HRRR suggests a diminishing trend to the rain between 05z to 07z.
The current forecast covers the situation well so no changes are
anticipated with the evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
Marginal risk for severe storms was added by SPC near and west of
Hwy 131. This is for the chance of a few isolated wind gusts over
50 mph related to the steep low level lapse rates near 8.5 C/KM
which have developed-- attributed to the warmth of Lk MI advecting
inland as well as the sunshine/heating we`ve had today ahead of
the approaching strong fall cold front and potent PV max. Water
temps are currently near 20C and H7 temps are falling to -10C.
Wouldn`t rule out some small hail as well given the low freezing
levels falling to around 4-5K ft this evening. Expecting to see
an increase in convective coverage and intensity soon as lake
induced capes further increase to 1500-2000 J/KG through 00Z.
Widespread coverage of showers and isolated tstms tonight
eventually wanes after 06Z with the passage of the upper low/PV
max, then the showers become more purely lake effect, mainly
confined to areas near/west of Highway 131.
We`ll have to keep an eye on rainfall amounts tonight since 24 hr
HREF LPMM QPF values in favored L.E.S. northwest flow area south
and west of GRR exceed 1" and possibly even locally surpass 1.5".
This would be concerning from a hydro standpoint since if the
heavier rains tonight overlap yeasterday`s heavy rain area. The
most likely place this could occur would be the AZO area and they
are prone to nuisance flooding so wouldn`t rule out the need for
an areal Flood Advisory later tonight.
On Saturday the lake effect showers should spread back inland
again as diurnal effects kick in. A rather dreary fall day is in
store with clouds and brisk northwest winds gusting to 30 mph
holding temps in the lower 50s. An overall decrease in shower
intensity and coverage is anticipated Saturday night as the H5
shear axis comes through, leading to lowering inversion heights
and loss of deeper moisture. Inland clearing may promote frost
development overnight if winds drop off enough so that will need
looked at more closely in later fcst updates.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
No major changes needed in the long term portion of the forecast
once again, with general unsettled and cool weather expected to
continue until further notice. Our main challenges are trying to
determine the details a little bit of when better chances of rain
might be.
The core of the upper low and cold pool aloft are expected to have
rotated just NE of the area by the beginning of the period on
Sunday. This will temporarily diminish rain chances a bit, but not
end them completely as the broad scale upper low stays over the area
with impulses riding through.
A more organized wave looks to rotate in on the backside of the
complex focused on Sunday night. Models are not too excited about
much rain with this feature. At the very least though some showers
will be possible closer to the lakeshore with sufficient instability
over the lake still present.
The period centered around mid-week next week continues to pose
problems for trying to pin rain chances down. The initial and main
upper low stays anchored to our NE, but just far enough away to keep
the better waves and chances of rain just to our NE. Then we have
the upper ridge to our west trying to be pushed overhead by the next
upper trough over the western part of the country. We know it will
stay cool, and will keep low chances for showers in the forecast.
Some better chances for rain are looking more likely to come in
toward the end of this forecast period, and just beyond. Again, the
details are very problematic depending on how the upper lows
interact with each other. What does look like a good chance is
that the western low should affect our weather in one way or
another for higher rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
A surface low pressure system will track eastward through the TAF
sites this evening. As a result the winds will be shifting around.
Also there will be numerous showers. The instability has settled
in closer to Lake MI so we will feature the thunder risk for KMKG.
While an isolated inland thunderstorm is possible, we were not
confident enough to include them in the TAF sites. The shower
activity will taper off somewhat going past midnight and more so
into Saturday. However, until then MVFR conditions will become
more widespread with local IFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
Lengthy Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Sunday as west
winds to 30 knots turn northwest tonight behind a strong fall cold
front and persist through the weekend. A brief period of gale
force winds is possible mainly between 11 PM and 5 AM tonight and
Thunderstorms this evening could produce locally higher wind
gusts to 50. Waterspout potential ramps up tonight and continues
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisory will likely need
extended into Monday and Tuesday as brisk westerly flow hangs on
a few more days.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
745 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2023
A closed mid-level low as noted on WV imagery and RAP analysis just
north of Lake Superior into Ontario and its associated cold front
moving through the Upper Great Lakes have been responsible for the
scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers across the U.P. this
afternoon. Winds have come around to the northwest and have gusted
25-30 kts at times over the western portion for the U.P. and are
gusting near gales over northern Lake Superior. Under clouds and
scattered showers, max temps today ahead of the front over the east
and south central have been mainly in the 50s while behind the front
to the west mid to upper 40s readings have been more common.
Tonight, as the cold front continues to push across the rest of the
U.P, through this evening, winds will shift from west-southwest to
northwest and gust between 25 and 40 mph, highest north central
near Lake Superior. Scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers
will persist tonight downwind of Lake Superior in a cyclonic nw
flow. Over far south central areas of the U.P., farther away from
the lake, showers will become more isolated. Min temps tonight
will range from the mid 30s over the interior west to the lower
40s near The Great Lakes and east half. Not completely out of the
question that a flake of snow could mix in toward sunrise over the
interior west but not counting on it.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2023
Key Messages:
-Below-normal temperatures and north to northwest winds off Lake
Superior brings persistent lake effect rain shower chances.
-Clipper system brings lake effect rain chances to western UP
Saturday night into Sunday.
-More widespread light rain chances return Monday into Tuesday.
Overall, the extended forecast period still looks unsettled with
persistent light rain chances, breezy north winds, and below normal
temperatures. Biggest change to going forecast was to boost PoPs
across the western UP Saturday night into Sunday as a clipper system
enhances the lake effect environment. Otherwise, I maintained the
changes made by previous forecast shifts.
Starting with Saturday morning, a high-amplitude western ridge and
eastern trough pattern dominates CONUS weather. Saturday afternoon,
an embedded upper low will close off over the area and eventually
phases with the remnants of TS Phillipe Saturday night. This will
result in a deepening surface low over southern Quebec into Sunday.
Our area will therefore remain under robust north/northwest flow
through the weekend, which in turn will continue to usher in a
chilly airmass, with 850mb temperatures falling to -2 to -4C by
Saturday morning. With Lake Superior sitting at around 12-14C, delta-
Ts are wide enough to keep lake effect showers going through the
weekend particularly across the N/NW favored areas of the eastern
UP. HREF guidance also advertises a more dominant band wavering
between Alger and Marquette Counties associated with the Lake
Nipigon connection. With forecast soundings showing drying at
midlevels, intensity and coverage of showers should wane especially
across the western UP on Saturday and across the eastern UP on
Sunday. A clipper system digging toward the base of the trough
Saturday night enhances convergence across the west leading to more
robust lake effect/lake enhanced rain showers across the west. This
clipper also briefly shifts prevailing winds and lake effect rain
showers from NNWerly to Nerly.
Otherwise, expect breezy conditions through the weekend with ~20-
30kt 925-850mb flow over the area for much of the time. Soundings
both afternoons are looking well-mixed even up to the 850mb level.
Gusts around 20-25 mph will be possible across the northern and
eastern UP, with winds coming in slightly lighter in the
southwestern UP. Expect highs generally in the 40s both days, and in
the lower 50s closer to the shorelines. Overnight lows in the 30s
both nights will lead to a chance for a few wet snowflakes or
graupel over the higher terrain, generally above 1000-1200ft.
Sunday night into Monday, the stacked low retrogrades westward and
will wobble somewhere over the Ontario/Quebec border at least
through midweek before slowly pulling northeastward again from
Thursday onward. Lake enhanced shower coverage increases Monday as a
weakening deformation zone shifts west over the area. Winds remain
gusty Monday with a tight pressure gradient over the area, but
slowly start to slacken the rest of the week as the closed low
begins to weaken and move out. Shortwaves pivoting around the closed
low could bring additional periods of lake enhanced rain showers
through the middle of next week. By next Thursday, operational and
ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a deep surface low
develops across the Central Plains. This low appears to track east-
northeast toward the Lower Great Lakes region as it tries to phase
with the pesky closed low to our northeast. At this time, a low
track to our south seems most likely, which keeps the cool, cloudy,
and damp pattern going through late next week too. Hopefully this
pattern returns in a month or two when it`s cold enough for
accumulating snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 744 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2023
Breezy and at times showery pattern will continue overnight as a
strong, compact low pressure system moves southeastward across Lake
Superior. The showers are not likely to impact vsby, except perhaps
at SAW where there is potential for a dominant lake effect band to
form, which could result in some heavier downpours 05-09Z which
could drop vsby to MVFR. Cigs are expected to remain MVFR at SAW
overnight, with IWD/CMX on the edge of MVFR/VFR. Sided more toward
VFR with this issuance. Northwesterly wind gusts to around 25 kt (30-
35 kt at CMX) will continue for most of the night, although IWD may
lose the gust component after 06Z. Similar conditions will persist
Saturday morning, with showers and winds diminishing for the
afternoon and VFR cigs prevailing.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 423 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2023
A prolonged period of winds frequently around 30kt continues to be
the main story for this forecast period. There is potential for
gales as well, across central and eastern Lake Superior this
afternoon through tonight, and across the eastern half of Lake
Superior Monday.
A cold front already tracked across all but the far southeast corner
of the lake today with NW winds now across most of the lake before
shifting more northerly across the eastern lake for Saturday. The
coolest air mass since last spring follows this front with NNW gales
to 35-40kt looking likely across a large part of central and eastern
Lake Superior beginning this afternoon and lasting into early
Saturday morning. Potential for high end gales greater than 40kt
stabilized around 50pct from around Passage Island se to the area
btwn Marquette and Grand Marias. Winds diminish below 20kt across
western Lake Superior on Saturday, but winds of 20-30kt will likely
continue over the eastern half of the lake this weekend. A deepening
low pressure developing near the Quebec/Ontario province line Sunday
evening results in increasing winds across all of the lake late Sun
into Mon. The latest model guidance advertises a 60-80pct chance for
35-40kt gales and 10-30pct chances for gales greater than 40kt along
and east of a line between the mid-lake buoy and Stannard Rock. NW
winds decrease late Monday, but should continue blowing around 20-
30kt until diminishing below 20kt late on Tuesday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ241-242-
263.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ243-244-264.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ245-248-265.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ249-250-266.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...LC/EK
AVIATION...Thompson
MARINE...LC/EK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023
By early afternoon, the cold front was nearly along the I-40
corridor and will continue to push through our southern CWA, perhaps
reaching the Red River around 4 to 5 PM at least based on latest
observations along with the RAP which seems to have a good handle on
it. With a cooler and drier air mass in place, high surface pressure
builds in tonight with skies clearing across all but our
southwestern CWA. As winds go light and variable under areas of
clear night skies, we`ll see strong radiational cooling as
temperatures rapidly drop. Northern Oklahoma will likely see low
temperatures in the mvfr (08-10kft) cloud deck will slowly erode
across northern and central Oklahoma through the evening as upper
trough continues to shift to the south and east. However, enough
moisture will likely remain over western/southwestern terminals in
wake of trough passage and weaken flow aloft to keep broken mid
level clouds going well into tomorrow. Gusty north winds will
subside through the evening, becoming light most terminals by 06Z.
Generally light winds tomorrow.d to upper 30s especially as winds
go dead calm. Although the relative humidity overnight may not be
at saturation widespread across our north, some areas tonight
could be near saturation for light frost to develop. As a result,
will have a Frost Advisory in effect across northern Oklahoma, or
specifically our northern two tier of counties up to the Kansas
state line. The Frost Advisory across our north will be in effect
at 3 AM to a few hours after sunrise. Saturday afternoon
temperatures will be mild yet unseasonably cooler (mid to upper
60s) as much as 10-15 degrees below average.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023
High surface pressure pushes off to the east late Saturday as
southerly winds make a gradual return keeping low temperatures a bit
warmer (40s) across our entire area for Sunday morning. Increasing
southwest winds with a ridge approaching from the west under sunny
skies will warm the afternoon up to seasonably average for early
October. The synoptic upper flow across North America will be
transition into an Omega blocking pattern with the upper lows off
the British Columbia/Pacific coast and Quebec Canada, with much of
the western half of the U.S. under the pinched ridge. As the upper
ridge builds over the Southern Plains, we`ll continue to see a
warming trend through the middle half of next week with above
average temperatures. Our southwest CWA may heat up into the 90s by
Wednesday. It could be a bit windy and gusty on Tuesday although
there is some model differences between the GFS & ECMWF with the
isobaric pattern and mixing height winds at 850 mb. However, models
have better agreement for windy conditions on Wednesday afternoon
with a strong low-level jet starting Tuesday night and a fairly
tight isobaric pattern at the surface. In addition, our southerly
low-level flow will increase moisture transport across our area with
a return of 60s dewpoints on Wednesday with increasing instability
while sharpening a dryline to our west across the Southern High
Plains/OK & TX Panhandles.
The upper blocking pattern starts to break down on Tuesday as the
Pacific-based upper low opens to a trough and starts digging into
the western half of the U.S. pushing a cold front through as well as
gradually flattening the ridge over the Southern Plains. With this
trough starting to move in, the ingredients may be in place for our
next storm system to come through during the latter half of next
week, perhaps late Wednesday on. However, models this far out don`t
have a good handle with the spatial storm coverage and timing across
our area with the ECMWF closing an upper low across the Central
Plains by Thursday while the GFS maintains an open trough. For now,
perhaps the highest storm POPs may be across our northern CWA near
Kansas but will also need to keep an eye out west for any potential
of convection off the dryline. Since the dryline could be near or
moving into our western CWA on Wednesday, very dry air combined with
gusty south winds and hot temperatures could also increase the fire
weather conditions across our west for Wednesday afternoon. A late
week cold front under a trough may bring cooler/milder temperatures
in by Friday, although Thursdays high temperature is a bit of a
challenge due to uncertainty of the frontal timing.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023
VFR cloud deck expected to continue scattering out across central
Oklahoma overnight, but may hold on past 12Z across southwest
portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Northerly winds will
also continue to decrease through the night, especially across
central Oklahoma. Return to light southerly across western
Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 41 64 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 42 67 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 47 69 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 35 67 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 37 66 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 46 69 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004>013.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
920 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move in from the west early Saturday, ushering in
cooler and drier air late Saturday through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 PM Friday...
Regional WV imagery shows a fairly significant punch in drier air
aloft which has shunted the vast majority of the mid/upper clouds
out over the Atlantic. However, lingering moisture in the 7-10k ft
layer has been slow to exit the area and point forecast soundings
from the RAP highlight this well with keeping 70-85% RH from 600mb
and below with considerable drying above. This lingering cloud layer
has shown signs of thinning/dissipating over the past couple hours
and point soundings continue to show this trend before clearing
around midnight. Below this cloud layer to the surface, a noticeable
moisture gradient was analyzed in a 20z surface analysis with low 60s
dew points over the western Piedmont and mid/upper 60s (some
isolated 70s) from Roxboro, Raleigh, Laurinburg eastward. This
increased low-level moisture during the afternoon leads to crossover
temps in the mid/upper 60s over the Sandhills, northeast Piedmont
and the entire Coastal Plain.
Most sites have gone calm already and have begin to cool fairly
rapidly despite the blanket of mid clouds still lingering over the
Northeast Piedmont and northern/central Coastal Plain. As clearing
continues and nearly optimal radiational cooling is able to persist
ahead of an approaching band of shallow showers observed over
western NC, areas of fog are expected to develop again tonight.
Point soundings indicate this fog layer should be very shallow,
significantly more shallow than the fog layer observed over the
northern Coastal Plain this morning. Although shallow, with lows
falling 3-5 degrees below the afternoon crossover temps (into the
low 60s), pockets of dense fog can certainly be possible anywhere in
the above mentioned areas.
Finally, an area of pre-frontal showers, forced by a mid-level moist
layer leading to weak elevated instability beneath the subsidence
inversion located at 600mb, will slowly begin to shift east tonight
as a deep trough shifts into the Mid MS and OH Valley takes on a
neutral tilt into Sat morning. The presence of dry air aloft above
the subsidence inversion will prevent any chances for deep
convection within the already elevated forcing regime. As such, rain
rates have been less than 0.1 inch/hr over the NC mountains and are
expected to remain fairly similar as the band of showers shifts east
into central NC later tonight into Sat morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Friday...
A vigorous shortwave trough will pivot east and across the cntl and
srn Appalachians on Sat, then pivot in negatively-tilted fashion
across the middle Atlantic Sat night. Associated, glancing 60-120
meter/12 hr height falls at 500 mb will be maximized in cntl NC
through early Sat afternoon. A band of strong ascent and saturation
centered between 700-850 mb, and an accompanying band of
rain/showers, will spread east and across cntl NC during the morning
through midday hours, as will the accompanying surface cold front.
The relatively shallow extent of the saturated/cloud layer and only
weak instability suggest rainfall amounts will be generally light
and less than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will be less warm but
still mainly in the 70s Sat, with appreciable cooling of the post-
frontal airmass delayed until nightfall. While post-frontal CAA will
result through early Sun, forecast soundings continue to depict the
boundary layer decoupling and surface winds consequently
diminishing, which may support pockets of stronger radiational
cooling and lows ranging from upr 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 PM Friday...
A closed mid/upper low will meander around southern Quebec and
southern Ontario from Sunday through much of the workweek, resulting
in cyclonic flow aloft, and mostly westerly/zonal flow across
central NC. At the surface, chilly high pressure initially centered
over eastern TX on Sunday will migrate east and off the Southeast US
coast on Monday. A cold front will push through central NC early
Tuesday, before pushing back north as a warm front on Wednesday.
In terms of sensible weather for central NC, this pattern will
result in very little to no precipitation chances and mostly clear
skies through midweek, as the zonal flow aloft results in a very dry
air mass. A weak disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow may result in
increased clouds across the north on Monday evening/night, and an
isolated sprinkle/shower can`t be entirely ruled out in the far NW
Piedmont. However, with models showing PW values of just 0.7-0.8"
(or around 50% of normal), think the column will be too dry for
anything to actually reach the ground. Ensemble guidance is not
impressed, and while a small minority of 00z EPS guidance was
showing measurable precipitation across the north, the 12z EPS
backed off even further. So decided to continue with no POPs across
the area.
As for temperatures, they will be well below normal on Sunday with
the continued post-frontal CAA. Highs will only range from lower-60s
in the north to upper-60s in the far south, which is normal for
early-to-mid November. Lows Sunday night are expected to be even
colder than Saturday night (upper-30s to lower-40s) despite slightly
higher low-level thicknesses, as high pressure moving overhead helps
to calm down the winds and we should radiate quite nicely. A warming
trend will commence after that as the high moves to our east and the
low-level flow turns southwesterly. So forecast highs are in the
upper-60s to lower-70s Monday, increasing to the 70s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the period, when
some lower-80s will even be possible.
The next deep mid/upper trough and cold front will approach from the
west by late week. As the flow aloft turns southwesterly, clouds
will be on the increase Thursday, with rain chances spreading in on
Thursday night and Friday. The 12z runs of both the GFS and ECMWF
sped up the timing of the trough, so increased POPs to high chance
on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday...
Some clearing has been observed over southern NC from KCLT to near
KFAY. That partial clearing may favor the redevelopment of areas of
fog and low overcast overnight, including KFAY and KRWI. KRDU
remains more uncertain.
A cold front, and accompanying along and pre-frontal band of
mostly 4-10 thousand ft ceilings and light showers, will then move
from west to east across cntl NC Saturday morning, during which time
a brief MVFR ceiling and/or visibility restriction in a shower, and
an initial surge of gusty nwly surface winds, will be possible. Nwly
surface winds will remain breezy/gusty behind the front throughout
the day Sat, but with clearing skies and an otherwise high
probability of VFR conditions.
Outlook: A chance of low-level wind shear will result with the
passage of a clipper-low and wswly low-level jet, atop a stable
surface layer, Mon night. VFR conditions are otherwise anticipated.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...PWB/MWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
845 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
No changes to the forecast were necessary at this time.
Temperatures and dewpoints will begin to lower tomorrow as a cold
front begins to enter the area tomorrow afternoon through the late
evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
Light showers/drizzle continue to stream in from west to east
along with mid to upper level cloud cover due to persistent
moisture ahead of an approaching cold front. With the cloud cover
in place, temperatures have been relegated to the low to mid 80s
across the region. The cold front will push through overnight
around midnight. With cooler and drier air coming in a bit early
on into the night, overnight temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 50s to low 60s for southeastern AL, southwestern
GA, and far western parts of the FL panhandle. Some additional
light rain showers will be possible through the overnight hours
along the boundary of the front as it pushes through, but coverage
will be gradually decreasing as it pushes southeastward.
Resultingly, PoPs are around 20-30% through this evening and
closer to 15-20% overnight.
Batiste/HGX
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
Drier air will steadily filter in throughout the day on Saturday
following the cold front with PW values dropping to 0.3"-0.4" by
late Saturday (average minimum PW value: ~0.46"). Combine that
with dew points dropping into the 30s/40s and 700-1000mb
temperatures at or below the 10th percentile and we have an
absolutely pleasant weekend in store! High temperatures on
Saturday will mainly be in the upper 70s to low 80s, but Sunday
will be even cooler with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s!
Overnight low temperatures will be what can only be described as
sweater weather as both Saturday night and Sunday night feature
the low 40s to low 50s with the cooler range of temperatures in
southeast AL/southwest GA. Winds will be quite a bit breezy
throughout the day on Saturday with CAA ongoing. Could see wind
gusts up to 20-25 mph at times, but winds will subside going into
Saturday night and Sunday.
We`ll get to squeeze in another cool day on Monday as surface high
pressure scoots in overhead. As it pushes into the eastern Gulf
on Tuesday, that`ll allow onshore flow to return which means a
warming trend takes us into the middle of the week as high
temperatures approach the mid 80s by Tuesday. Moisture begins to
increase late Tuesday due to a combination of both the return of onshore
flow and remnant moisture from the eastern Pacific leading to
increasing rain chances offshore on Tuesday night.
Batiste/HGX
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Friday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
Rain chances increase Wednesday as onshore flow returns, allowing
moisture to increase through the 700mb layer. A generally zonal flow
will prevail Wednesday; however, ripples within the 500mb level will
create areas of PVA, providing upward movement, and aiding the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances
further increase on Thursday as a low moves across the Great Plains
into the Ohio Valley and a warm front pushes through the Panhandle.
This will create warmer temperatures Thursday into Friday in the
wake of the warm front.
No major changes to the temperatures from the previous forecast.
Highs will generally be in the low to mid-80s with lows in the 60s
later in the week.
Adams/HGX
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
Cold front is marching east into our southeast Alabama counties
attm with light showers occurring around DHN northward into
eastern Alabama. HRRR seems to have a decent handle on this and
promotes additional shower development moving east toward
southwest Georgia in the next few hours through midnight. Added
VCSH at DHN and ABY with coverage weakening before it reaches ECP
and TLH. VFR conditions are expected through the period; the
exception may be quick reductions to MVFR underneath showers.
Winds will veer to the northwest after the front then become gusty
by mid morning Saturday with gusts approaching 20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
A cold front pushing offshore tonight into early Saturday morning will
lead to a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Saturday
and Sunday. Winds will increase out of the northwest to 20 knots
for the waters west of Mexico Beach on Saturday, then for the
remainder of the coastal waters east of Mexico Beach to the
Suwanee River Saturday Night into Sunday. Seas will also build 3
to 5 feet offshore during this time frame. As high pressure
settles over the waters early next week, more tranquil boating
conditions are expected, with winds around 10 knots.
Batiste/HGX
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
Pockets of lower dispersion will be possible overnight along the coast.
On Saturday, dangerous fire weather conditions will be possible
due to a combination of drought conditions and low fuel moisture
along with very dry and windy conditions in the wake of a cold
front. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Southeast
AL where the most confidence in meeting criteria exists. A Fire
Weather Watch remains in effect for the Florida Panhandle, western and
central portions of the Florida Big Bend, and southwest Georgia
where there is lower confidence in meeting criteria, but the potential
for dangerous fire weather conditions remains. Elevated fire weather
conditions may linger into Sunday with very dry air remaining in place,
although winds will be lower.
Batiste/HGX
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
No appreciable rainfall is expected until Thursday across
the region. Thereafter, there is the potential for heavy
rainfall. Thursday and Friday could bring 1 to 3 inches of
widespread rainfall across the region. Otherwise, drought
conditions are currently in place for Southeast Alabama,
the Western FL Panhandle, and portions of the Flint River
Valley, including pockets of severe drought.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 68 81 54 73 / 20 10 0 0
Panama City 68 81 54 73 / 10 0 0 0
Dothan 64 78 47 72 / 30 0 0 0
Albany 66 78 48 72 / 20 0 0 0
Valdosta 66 81 51 72 / 10 10 0 0
Cross City 68 86 55 77 / 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 69 81 57 72 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112.
High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday through
Sunday morning for FLZ114.
GA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for GAZ120>131-142>146-155>158.
AL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 10 AM CDT Sunday for
GMZ750-770.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Batiste
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Batiste
FIRE WEATHER...Batiste
HYDROLOGY...LF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
745 PM PDT Fri Oct 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue through Monday
with mostly dry conditions. There is a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm over the higher terrain of far eastern Mohave County
tomorrow and Sunday. A trend toward cooler and breezier conditions
arrives Tuesday and lasts much of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Another quiet evening across the region. Any afternoon
breezy winds have diminished and light winds were reported in most
location this evening. With a ridge building overhead, clear skies
and mild temperatures persisted. No major changes were needed for
the overnight forecast as the quiet weather will continue tonight.
Overnight low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than last
night.
--Nickerson--
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1224 PM PDT Fri Oct 6 2023.
.DISCUSSION...Through Next Friday.
Combination of wildfires and prescribed burns has produced a veil of
smoke across central Arizona, which can now be seen drifting west
into Mohave County. HRRR Smoke output suggests this veil of smoke
may drift as far west as eastern Clark/San Bernardino County
tonight. Models have been showing the potential for isolated
showers/thunderstorms along the higher terrain of central Arizona
this weekend. Latest run of the NBM/HREF shows greatest potential
still staying just east of Mohave County Saturday. On Sunday, NBM
now paints some low PoPs over the higher terrain around Peach
Springs and Fort Rock, potentially as far west as the Hualapai
Mountains.
Elsewhere, north winds will be lighter within the lower CRV this
weekend while temperatures will be warm when compared to our normals
through Monday.
Extended simulations still advertise a trough moving from the PacNW
into the central/southern Rockies Monday-Thursday. NBM starting to
better resolve the belt of gusty west-southwest winds across the
Mojave Desert Tuesday, then the gusty north winds within the lower
CRV, especially Thursday. Temperatures are slated to cool, returning
closer to normal.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...North-northeast(010-060) wind 8-12
knots will likely continue through 22Z-23Z this afternoon before
weakening. During that time, can not rule out a few gusts up to 17
kts. In the evening and overnight hours, winds will swap to a more
westerly direction at 8 knots or less. After 18Z Saturday, expect an
easterly direction at 10 kts or less. VFR skies prevail through the
TAF period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A north wind will continue at KIFP and KEED into this
evening before diminishing. There is the potential Saturday morning
for several hours of north winds of 10-20 kts at KIFP, less
potential at KEED. Otherwise Saturday, south wind will be favored at
KBIH, while speeds will generally be 10 kts or less elsewhere.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
Pierce
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