Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/06/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
...updated aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Midday RAP upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery
depict strong longwave troughing spread out over the majority of
the CONUS between a pair of ridges over the east and west coasts.
At the surface, northerly winds are slowly weakening as high
pressure builds into the central plains in the wake of an upper
level shortwave trough rounding the base of the parent trough. Any
cold air that accompanies these north winds will be offset by
850-mb temperatures warming by 1-3 degrees C, fostering a slightly
warmer day with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s to near 80.
Tonight, typical diurnal minimum in winds will combine with clear
skies to support Friday morning lows in the mid to upper 40s.
During the day Friday, short range guidance agrees a strong upper
level shortwave trough will dive southeast into the Midwest on
the western periphery of the eastward-advancing main wave,
sending a reinforcing shot of cold air equatorward into the
northern and central plains via strong north winds. As a result,
Friday afternoon will be much cooler across our area, with highs
ranging from the low 60s north to upper 60s near the KS/OK border.
Additionally, some light rain showers/sprinkles may accompany this
surge in cooler temperatures, as latest CAMs show decent returns
in the simulated reflectivity fields. That said, any precipitation
will be very minimal, likely not exceeding a few hundredths of
QPF. Friday night, a ~1030-mb surface high will settle into the
central plains, centered somewhere over southwest KS. Nearly calm
winds around this feature along with clear skies will allow
temperatures to plummet, and Saturday morning could see the first
freeze of the year, especially across the northern zones.
Therefore, a Freeze Watch will be introduced for all counties
along and N of KS-96 from 06-13Z Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Key Messages: Warming trend begins Saturday and will continue
through the middle of next week, with highs in the mid 80s
returning. Early indications are precipitation chances may return
at the end of the period, but still much to be determined.
Following the chilly morning on Saturday, medium range ensembles
are in agreement the strong upper level longwave trough will
finally depart daytime Saturday as ridging over the western CONUS
builds and begins to take hold. As a result, a warming trend will
commence across the central plains, with afternoon highs warming
from the upper 60s/low 70s on Saturday to the low/mid 80s on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Synoptic-scale subsidence ahead of the
ridge will also shut down any widespread precipitation chances for
our area.
Late in the period, medium range ensembles suggest the next
noteworthy upper level trough will dig southeast, crossing the
central Rockies late Wednesday into Thursday. If this scenario
verifies, this wave would likely bring the next appreciable
opportunity for widespread precipitation, along with much cooler
temperatures. The EPS is much more bullish on this outcome, with
probability of exceeding 0.1" in the 60-70% range across our area
while the GEFS only forecasts 10-20%. Given the ECMWF`s
historically superior performance over the GFS, NBM pops already
in the slight chance (15-24%) to mid-range chance (25-54%)
categories seem justified.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
VFR is expected through TAF pd. Some mid level clouds will be possible
tomorrow across the terminals in the wake of a fropa. This front will
move across the terminals during the morning. Winds will be light and
variable tonight but increase out of the N to NE tomorrow of 15-25 kt
and gusts of 30+ kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 63 34 69 / 10 20 0 0
GCK 44 62 34 69 / 0 10 0 0
EHA 48 67 39 72 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 45 65 35 70 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 43 60 30 67 / 10 20 0 0
P28 47 65 35 66 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for
KSZ030-031-043>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
948 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Based off of SPC`s Mesoscale Analysis page MU CAPE values were
roughly 250 to 500 J/kg along and west of US-131. Radar does show
convection up near Big Sable Point, tracking east. Additional
convection was over central Lake MI. Lightning plots confirm
thunderstorms up around Ludington. The latest HRRR shows the
convection tracking inland, possibly reaching the Grand Rapids
area over the next few hours. As a result, we updated the forecast
to reflect a greater potential for storms for the western half of
the CWA, including Grand Rapids and Muskegon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Unsettled, fall-like pattern settling in over the next 36 hours
as a deep, amplifying upper trough digs into the GrtLks Rgn and
drives a series of sfc cold fronts through. After several days of
well above normal, even record-setting temperatures we are now
looking at below normal temperatures coming in.
The first front, which produced impressive rainfall totals of
greater than 2" between GRR and AZO, will move east this evening
and take the persistent rain with it. The second front, now
marching through WI, has a narrow band of showers along it and
those may impact locations north and west of GRR this evening
before dissipating.
The third and primary cold front arrives late Friday with H8 temps
around 0C rushing in behind it. Shower coverage expected to
increase in the afternoon with approach/arrival of the front and
the H5 trough axis/potent shortwave. A few tstms will be possible
as well as mid level lapse rates steepen under the digging upper
trough.
Significant coverage of lake effect/enhanced showers expected
Friday night as delta T/s increase to around 20C and the upper
jet core dips south of MI. Some fairly robust lake convection is
expected as fcst soundings show inversion heights above 20K feet
and lake induced capes of 1000-2000 J/KG. A few thunderstorms are
certainly possible and some small hail and gusty even squall-
like cells/clusters cannot be ruled out (mainly near west of Hwy
131).
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
The focus of the long term portion of the forecast continues to be
the much cooler and unsettled weather expected for much of, if not
all of the period through next Thursday.
The greatest deal of confidence continues to be with the general
forecast and trends for Saturday through about Tuesday of next week.
The upper low and cold pool aloft will be firmly entrenched over the
area at the beginning of the period on Saturday. This will support
scattered showers by itself for the entire area with weak short
waves riding through.
Then you add in the lake effect factor with water temps well into
the 60s F/around 18C, and there will be a significant boost in rain
shower activity closer to the lake. Forecast soundings support the
going thunder threat in the forecast with lake induced CAPEs around
2,000 J/kg and no inversion heights to speak of. Waterspouts will
also continue to be possible, but not optimal with winds on the
verge of being too strong for development.
There continues to be a trend evident for a little less
coverage/chance of rain shower activity starting on Sunday and going
through the early portion of the week. The core of the low and cold
pool aloft lifts E/NE away from the area a bit. While conditions
will be a little less favorable for showers (and storms over the
lake), cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the region. Any short
waves embedded in the flow that moves in could touch off a few
showers.
The end of the period from next Wednesday-Thursday continues to be a
bit uncertain with regards to the trends. The upper low in place
over the region will have a tendency to want to stick around until
it can get booted out by another system. There is another strong
long wave trough coming into the Western U.S. trying to do that.
However, there are different solutions in the various ensembles in
how the upper air pattern plays out. It could get kicked out, it
could hold in if the kicking trough undercuts it, or it could just
get delayed. Small chances for rain will be held for now, with a
trend and agreement evolving.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
As the front moves eastward the rain showers will subside. MVFR
cigs remain at LAN, BTL and JXN. These will improve as the showers
move east. However expect lower cigs and vsbys to form after 03Z
with MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys expected overnight until 12Z
Friday. The other sites could see MVFR but less likely.
Conditions will improve Friday and we will see winds increase
mid- late morning at all sites as deep mixing takes place with the
arrival of the colder air. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are
likely. We will see cumulus/stratocumulus clouds develop, with the
most extensive toward the lakeshore. Another round of showers
will be possible late Friday into Friday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
A lengthy period of rough conditions is expected on Lake Michigan
beginning late tonight and continuing through the weekend. Winds
increase out of the west tonight behind the 2nd in a series of
cold fronts now moving through WI. Will issue a Small Craft
Advisory starting at Midnight and continuing into Friday.
The most adverse conditions on the lake arrive Friday evening as
the 3rd and primary cold front comes through. A period of
northwesterly gale force winds is possible with this frontal
passage, but it`s possible the gales are of relatively short
duration and associated only with the initial surge of cold air.
Either way, will issue a Gale Watch running from Friday evening
through early Saturday afternoon since some of the HiRes guidance
keeps near-gale gusts going through that time and since this
pattern at this time of year usually overperforms. Wave heights
expected to peak at 8-12 ft late Friday night into Saturday
morning; highest south of Muskegon.
Small Craft Advisories will be needed beyond the period of
potential gales all the way through the weekend and probably into
early next week as well.
Waterspout potential increases with the arrival of the cold air
Friday night, although the higher wind speeds may be a limiting
factor. Thunderstorms are also possible over Lk MI Friday night
into Saturday due to the moderate instability resulting from the
contrast between the warm water temps and the cold air aloft.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.
Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Regional radar shows just a few areas of higher reflectivity
across portions of the Plateau. Some light rain may accompany
these over the next couple of hours but the current forecast has a
good handle on it. Additional chances of rain showers will begin
to move in Friday morning. No major changes needed for this
update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Key Messages:
1. Increasing clouds this evening. Light rain at times overnight and
through tomorrow.
Discussion:
For the remainder of the day the thick cloud band associated with
the incoming frontal system will continue to slowly approach,
increasing cloud coverage through the remainder of the day into
tonight.
The HRRR and GFS depict a light rain band coming in late tonight,
but the rain reaching the surface is dependent on how dry the
lowest portions of the atmosphere are. HREF meanwhile was entirely
unenthused about this possibility. The overall system seems to
have two main "rounds" of light rain, with more scattered showers
as the main event Friday afternoon. Soundings depict low-topped
cells with very meager MUCAPE, so thunder would be hard to come
by. Rainfall with this system will be meager, with event total
rainfall around a tenth of an inch or less. Unfortunately this
means no real drought relief.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Key Messages:
1. After any lingering showers Friday evening, mainly dry weather is
expected for the period.
2. Much cooler temperatures through the weekend followed by a
gradual warming trend.
Discussion:
A few showers may still be around early Friday night as the cold
front exits the area, mainly over eastern portions near and over the
eastern mountains. A large closed upper low will develop over the
eastern Great Lakes region Saturday/Saturday night then will meander
back north into Canada. This will keep our region in a northwest
flow aloft regime into the early part of the week. Much cooler air
will move in behind the front for the weekend, with temperatures
around 10 to 15 degrees below normal common. There may be some
patchy frost in the colder spots late Saturday night or Sunday night
depending on wind/sky cover, and some of the higher terrain in the
mountains will likely dip below freezing late Saturday night.
Some model data suggests there could be a few light showers around
mainly SW VA Monday or early Monday night as weak short wave energy
moves through the northwest flow aloft. However, model
agreement/consistency has been poor overall and ensemble data from
the GEFS shows little support for this idea. Will keep some slight
chance PoPs north per NBM but trim its PoPs back a bit, especially
given the very limited moisture expected to be available. Overall
the Monday through Thursday time frame will be dry with a warming
trend outside of the aforementioned possible light showers north.
However, by the end of the period a significant upper trough is
forecast to be approaching from the west. Most of the latest model
data suggests Thursday will remain dry through the end of the day,
but given timing uncertainties that far out will not argue with the
NBM slight chance PoPs for showers Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
High clouds will continue to overspread the area overnight with a
gradual reduction in CIGS. Areas of rain showers will begin to
approach the terminals shortly after sunrise from west to east.
Temporary reductions to CIGS and Visb are possible in and nearby
showers. Winds will remain light through the period and should
begin to veer toward the north at CHA late in the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 78 49 66 / 30 20 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 76 46 64 / 20 30 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 63 74 46 63 / 30 30 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 74 47 60 / 20 40 30 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wellington
AVIATION...Diegan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
826 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Areas of showers continue to move east across Middle TN. Radar
trends look to have weaken. The threat of thunder has also
diminished. The HRRR has a bit heavier spotty showers after
midnight. The rain will exit the plateau late morning by 15Z.
High temperatures tomorrow will still be on the mild side with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Showers continue to slowly move east ahead of the upper trough
thats sliding into our region today. Showers seem to be struggling
to stay together once they cross the TN River, but that very
likely won`t last as moisture continues to move into the eastern
portions of the area thanks to the southerly winds. Expect showers
to continue to move east tonight, and eventually be contained to
the eastern half in the morning. A few showers may linger on the
Plateau Friday afternoon, along with a few rumbles of thunder
possible. As for today, models still show weak instability but not
out of the question for a rumble of thunder or two. Northwest
winds will move in behind the trough and associated cold front, so
high temps tomorrow should hold in the mid to upper 70s if skies
clear from west to east in the late morning through the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Saturday looks to be the coolest day so far this Fall, with high
temperatures only getting into the mid 60s west and upper 50s on
the Plateau. Continued CAA thanks to the Midwest trough will bring
850 mb temps around 2C to 4C during the day, helping keep temps
cool during the day. Saturday night looks to see our first frost,
with patchy frost possible as lows get down to the mid 30s in many
locations. Clear skies and light winds may even allow for some
locations on the Plateau and usual cold spots to get near
freezing, but we`ll see how the models trend over the next few
runs. Any mixing during the day may result in some fire wx
concerns Saturday and Sunday with min RH values getting into the
20 to 30 percent range, but again need to see later model runs to
assess dewpoint trends.
Upper trough stays to our north for the first half of the week
which should allow for a slow warm up through Wednesday. Some
ensembles bring weak disturbances to our northeast on Monday,
which may clip northeast zones, but only light rain if anything
with current solutions. Flow briefly becomes zonal midweek before
our next shot at rain moves in late Thursday into Friday for our
next Plains trough that moves east. This will likely cool temps
down again for next weekend, but hopefully next weekend stays dry
as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2023
Scattered light showers will continue to move through the mid-
state tonight, before ending west to east in the morning. Obs
have shown mainly MVFR VIS with the showers so far, but radar
coverage is becoming less organized so VIS restrictions shouldn`t
be too much of an issue. Low CIGS are anticipated on the tail end
of the rain with IFR to LIFR possible, especially for SRB and CSV
late in the night to early morning hours. After 14Z winds will
become northwesterly and then northerly, which will gradually
clear out any lingering low clouds except for SRB and CSV which
will be late in the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 61 77 45 64 / 30 10 0 0
Clarksville 61 76 43 62 / 50 0 0 0
Crossville 57 70 38 57 / 50 40 10 0
Columbia 61 78 42 64 / 40 10 0 0
Cookeville 61 73 41 59 / 60 40 0 0
Jamestown 59 70 40 57 / 60 40 10 0
Lawrenceburg 61 78 42 63 / 40 20 0 0
Murfreesboro 62 78 44 65 / 40 20 0 0
Waverly 59 75 42 62 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......12
SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1102 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides east overnight into Friday. The high will
give way to an approaching frontal system that will drag a cold
front through the area Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile,
tropical storm Philippe is forecast to track north, about 250 to
300 nm east of Montauk Point on Saturday. The post tropical low
pressure tracks into Eastern Canada early next week allowing
weak disturbances to move through the area during the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Strong shortwave energy digs into the Upper Mississippi Valley,
around a southern Ontario closed low and deep eastern Central
US trough, while a broad upper low off the SE US coast gradually
lifts north, influencing TS Philippe to accelerate north towards
Bermuda.
At the surface, regionally, a frontal system associated with the
Ontario Low pushes into the eastern Great Lakes, with a
strengthening S/SE low-level flow increasing theta-e advection
and low-level lift into the area. This moistening under a strong
subsidence inversion has caused stratus to develop, along with
possible patchy drizzle across some areas with weak lift as
heights fall. Observations reveal visibility reduced to mostly
1-4 miles so far. Will possibly need special weather statements
or even maybe a dense fog advisory at some point before the
night is through. Better overall chances for widespread dense
fog would be the coastal spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough continues to dig through the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley on Friday, with southern closed low lifting up
the coast. The anomalously deep trough (2-3 std below normal)
negatively tilts towards the area Friday Night into Saturday,
with southern shortwave lifting north through the area. The
negatively tilting trough closes off Sat Night to the NW of the
area.
At the surface, a strong cold front moves into the western PA/NY by
Fri evening, then into far western portions of the area Sat, and
across the region by Sat eve/night. Meanwhile, TS Philippe is
forecast to move north Friday Night thru Saturday, tracking
250-325 miles e of MTP Sat afternoon as it is transitioning to
extra tropical. Based on this forecast track, the developing
frontogenetic/deformation banding on the west side of Phillipe
is likely to stay east of the area. Shower activity will
gradually increase Friday into Friday Night with approach of
lead and southern shortwave energy aiding lift of an gradually
increasing Atlantic and sub-tropical moisture feed. The rain
shower activity will likely be most prevalent and heaviest N&W
of NYC with orographics and in vicinity of weak warm front/pre-
frontal trough. There will likely be a focus for a 6 hr period
of moderate to heavy rainfall late Friday Night into Saturday in
response to strong lift and weak instability ahead of
negatively tilting shortwave and right rear quad of ULJ (or even
possible couple jet) lifting an initially moist airmass with
both gulf and sub-tropical connection (+1-2 std PWATS)
convergence in a zone between the approaching cold front and
warm front/pre- frontal trough.
With above forcing, convergence zone and tropical moisture this
situation bears monitoring for potential PRE characteristics.
Interestingly, based on sounding analysis, the best mid-upper lift
on Sat appears to be offset from the deepest moisture and warm cloud
rainfall efficiency Friday Night into early Sat, perhaps as
Phillipe showing its extra-tropical influence. There is some
weak diurnal instability evident on Saturday as the shearing
southern shortwave lifts through and ahead of the negatively
tilting primary shortwave, which could help support a narrow
axis of deeper convection.
NBM probabilities for 1 inch of rain over the 6 hr period from Sat
12z to 00z Sun continue to be quite low at 5-10%. NBM probs of 1" in
24 hrs are around 30 to 40% for Lower Hudson valley and 10-20% for
the coast. The 12z HREF though is indicating 10% ensemble potential
of 3"/3hr btwn Sat 09z-12z as the sub-tropical moisture stream and
frontal system moisture stream begin to converge, with 12z HRRR
indicating potential for localized 1-2"/hr rainfall rates. Current
indication is that this enhanced convergence/lift area initially
develops/focuses across NYC, NE NJ and Lower Hud late Fri
Night/Sat AM, and then translate east across southern CT on
Saturday. Expect refinement of the location, movement, rainfall
amounts and rates over the next 12 to 24 hrs as this event gets
more completely resolved by high-res models, but potential is
there for a 3-6 hr period of locally enhanced rainfall rate
threat, particularly for areas N&W of NYC where better forcing
is pivoting through combined with orographic enhancement.
Rain tapers off Sat Eve/Night as closed low closes to the NW of the
area and cold front wraps into transitioning post-tropical storm
Phillipe heading into northern New England. W/NW winds of 15-
25G30mph ushering in a cooler and drier airmass.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center, https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for
official forecasts on Philippe.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High amplitude trough in association with strong low pressure over
northern New England Sunday will track into southeastern Canada and
retrograde into southern Ontario, north of the Great Lakes by Monday
night. This upper trough will remain over the Northeast and
upper Mid-West through much of next week, with some
weakening/deamplification as the low becomes vertically stacked
and weakens over Ontario. During this time frame, weak
disturbances in association with the cyclonic flow aloft will
move through the region. Where and when is still somewhat
uncertain at this point, but best timing right now look to be
Monday night through Tuesday night. However, it will not be
raining the entire time, with at most about a 30% chance of
showers during this time frame.
As far as temperature is concerned, a cooler air mass will be
advected into the region for much of the week. Temperatures on
Sunday and Monday will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some
moderation is expected by Tuesday onward as temperature are forecast
to rise into the lower to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered well east of the New England coast will
gradually retreat farther offshore through Friday, while a frontal
system approaches from the west.
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions overspread the area over the next
few hours. Occasional VLIFR with vsbys 1/4 mile or less. A few
showers and/or areas of drizzle remain possible late tonight
into Friday.
ESE-E winds under 10 kt tonight, then averaging around 10 kt by
Friday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Tempo or Prevailing IFR possible at KEWR/KTEB/KLGA before 04z. VLIFR
could be prevailing at any of the terminals for a few hours
instead of tempo overnight. Timing of improving flight
categories could be off by a couple of hours on Friday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night...LIFR/IFR conditions return. Showers becoming
likely overnight, especially across the NYC and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals.
Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain showers. Improving late with a cold
frontal passage and NW winds 10-15kt G20-25kt.
Sunday: VFR. W winds 15-20kt G25-30kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. SW G15-20kt
Tuesday...Manly VFR. Chance of showers. S-SW G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Dense fog continues on all waters overnight into Friday
morning. Light winds during this time.
Sub SCA winds are expected to continue through Saturday
morning, but ocean seas build to 5 ft Friday night as swells
increase from TC Phillipe. By Saturday night, ocean seas are
expected to be 9-10 ft. SCA winds likely behind a strong cold
frontal passage late Saturday, continuing into Sunday. SCA
criteria gusts are likely on all waters Saturday night through
Sunday night, with occasional gales possible on the ocean
waters.
SCA conditions look to continue for Sunday and into the first
part of Sunday night on all waters, though winds and waves will
be diminishing starting late Sunday afternoon. Waves peak on
the ocean to 6 to 10 ft, while 4 to 6 ft are expected on the
central and eastern sound waters by Sunday afternoon. A strong
WSW to W flow is expected, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 kt
on all waters, and gusts 30 to 35 kt. Gales are possible on the
ocean for Sunday, so will continue to monitor for this
possibility.
By late Sunday night, only the ocean waters are expected to remain
in SCA as wave heights above 5 ft. From Monday through Tuesday, sub
SCA conditions are expected on all waters.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center, https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for
official forecasts on Philippe.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A basin wide average of 1 to 1 1/2" is likely from NYC and
points N&W, tapering to 1/4 to 1/2" along the coast from Friday
thru Sat evening. 12z HREF is indicating a 10% probability of
3"/3hr at the end of the forecast period early Saturday morning
in vicinity of NYC/NJ metro, which does pose some concerns for
isolated flash flooding across NYC/NJ metro and the quick
reacting river basins across NE NJ, Lower Hud and SW CT due to
saturated soils and streamflows at 75th percentile or greater.
HRRR also indicating potential for some very localized swaths of
1-2"/hr rainfall rates in this area, which supports a localized
flash flood threat from any training downpours/embedded tstms.
Higher probability appears to be for minor urban and poor
drainage and small river/stream flooding.
Still too early and low confidence for a Flood Watch, but if
high res guidance becomes more bullish on coverage/duration of
these enhanced rainfall rates aver the next 24 hrs, a watch may
be needed.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period SE swells from Phillipe will build to 6 to 8 ft Fri
NIght into Sat Night, presenting likelihood of additional beach
erosion/escarpment from an east to west sweep of 5 to 9 ft
breaking surf. Because water levels are not astronomically
high, the dune erosion threat during times of high tide is
isolated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/JP/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...