Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/04/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
741 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure and upper ridging continue through Thursday.
Expect clear to mostly clear skies, light northeast winds, and
near normal temperatures over the area during this time. The
pattern breaks down on Friday as a trough sets up over the
eastern CONUS. Near to above normal temperatures this week fall
to below normal values this weekend following a frontal
passage.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The upper ridge begins to slowly inch eastward over night while
the surface high remains stationary, keeping the dry air mass
in place. The HRRR smoke model does show the periodic smoke to
continue overnight, which may cause some haziness at times. Lows
are forecast to be a couple degrees warmer tonight than the
past couple nights, with temperatures dipping down to the mid
50s to around 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another benign day Wednesday with an almost carbon copy of
Tuesday`s discernible weather. The high pressure ridge will
nudge east and broaden over the Mid Atlantic and southern New
England. Surface high pressure will be shifting away from the
area but will continue to be broadly across the eastern US.
Enough moisture in the lower levels for some fair weather
cumulus, otherwise clear. Temperatures will be similar, perhaps
a degree warmer, to those on Tuesday. On Thursday, the pressure
gradient at the surface will tighten over the southeast and
onshore moisture transport will slowly increase. The upper low
centered well east of the Florida coastline will struggle to
move even as the upper trough starts to near the Appalachians.
The shallow moisture and lack of forcing will keep the area dry
once again, though perhaps less sunshine in the late afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front will set up over the eastern CONUS and guidance
continues to keep the passage mostly dry with the exception of
maybe a few showers in the CSRA Friday night and in the north
and west on Saturday. Any rainfall amounts should be minimal.
ECMWF and GFS are still in quite a bit of disagreement on the
timing of the front and the GFS pushes drier air into our
northwest counties Saturday morning. The timing of the front
will greatly impact not only highs on Saturday but also lows
Sunday morning. The NBM seems to be a good consensus between the
to major global models and shows the stark gradient in highs
that day; however, given the cooler trend seen in ensembles,
may see temperatures in the low 40s both Sunday and Monday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mixture of conditions from vfr down to ifr visibilities expected
at the usual fog prone locations of ags/ogb again tonight. Remaining
taf locations of cae/cub/dnl should continue with vfr through
the period.
Skies will remain clear overnight, while winds become light to
calm at all locations. Biggest issue overnight will be the
periodic ground fog formation at both ags/ogb again tonight.
Crossover temperatures would seem to indicate higher probability
at ogb, but both locations have been in and out of ifr
visibilities for brief periods the past several nights, and see
no reason to go against that likelihood tonight. After sunrise,
vfr returns at all sites, and winds will once again increase to
between 5 and 8 knots out of the northeast through the day.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog
possible at ags and ogb through the period.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
657 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/
The main meteorological focus for the midweek period continues to
be a large scale upper trough, which can be seen on IR satellite
imagery churning over the Rockies this evening. Gulf moisture will
be on the increase out ahead of the trough as it advances slowly
eastward, particularly overnight into Wednesday as dewpoints climb
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This surge of Gulf moisture will
usher in a deck of low clouds, which will likely be accompanied
by occasional rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. RADAR
mosaics indicate that this process is already ongoing over
Southeast Texas, and the development of a 35kt low level jet
should assist greatly in the northward expansion of the clouds and
precipitation tonight. A slight veering of the low level winds
will shunt most of this moisture into East Texas, keeping the best
overnight/Wednesday rain chances along and east of the I-35
corridor (an exception being convection moving into the Big
Country, where a lingering storm or two may cross into the CWA
before dissipating).
Any convection during the overnight into Wednesday morning period
should be elevated in nature and likely sub-severe, though small
hail may still occur in a strong storm or two. Will need to keep
an eye on any warm/moist advection thunderstorms that persist into
Wednesday afternoon, which could tap into some surface
instability and become capable of gusty winds and maybe even a
brief spin-up tornado before activity exits to the northeast.
The focus will then abruptly shift to our northwest mid to late
Wednesday afternoon as the base of the upper trough advances east
into The Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms will develop rather
quickly across Oklahoma and Northwest Texas along an attendant
cold front, with activity likely growing upscale into a QLCS as it
enters our CWA from the northwest. That is when the greatest
severe weather potential will likely occur, as the atmosphere
will be the least stable at that time of day with around 50 kt of
deep layer shear present. Damaging winds and large hail would be
both be possible on an isolated basis, and a tornado or two cannot
even be completely ruled out. Storms should remain mainly below
severe thresholds as activity pushes farther south and east and
instability decreases. Sub-severe strong/gusty winds, however,
may remain somewhat widespread well into the night.
The latest timing based on a look at all of the most recent CAMs
indicates this line entering the northwest zones prior to sunset,
crossing the I-20 corridor and the northeast counties during the
evening hours, and pushing through Central and East Texas
overnight. The primary concern with this line of convection should
shift to the potential for heavy rain and localized flash
flooding, particularly where any training showers and storms may
occur. Overall rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches seem reasonable,
with locally higher and lower amounts, and the higher amounts
most likely occurring across the northeast zones. This
precipitation, the heavy rain threat, and the associated front
will eventually push south and east of the area beyond this
forecast period (see long term discussion).
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023/
/Wednesday Evening through Tuesday/
A well-defined shortwave at the base of an upper level longwave
trough will swing through the region Wednesday night into Thursday
which will provide strong forcing for ascent across North and
Central Texas. This lift combined with the increasingly moisture
ladened airmass over the region will lead to widespread
convection. Even though bulk shear magnitude is not overly
impressive, wind profiles will exhibit well-organized directional
turning with height which should combine with marginal to
adequate instability values and lend a severe weather threat late
afternoon Wednesday into overnight Wednesday. One band of
scattered late afternoon early evening convection will be possible
in the open warm sector regime east of the I-35 corridor. The
primary (but very low probability threat) with this activity would
be an isolated tornado threat associated with low-topped
supercells.
The main severe weather window/threat will occur Wednesday evening
as a squall line organizes along an approaching cold front from
the northwest. Damaging winds would be the primary threat with
this activity given the linear storm mode. The 6z HRRR was
particularly bullish on a swath of 50-60kt wind gusts across north
Texas, the 12z backed off, and the 18z run now is back to
advertising that threat. Regardless of severe wind potential, the
convective mode should be a squall line impacting just about the
entire region and moving into Central Texas after midnight into
pre-dawn Thursday. By daybreak Thursday some lingering rain and
embedded elevated storms may persist over North/Central Texas
ahead of the final clearing of the upper trough axis, but this
activity should be lest robust.
Rainfall will be beneficial with ensemble guidance continuing to
advertise just about everyone getting at least a half inch, and
most locations have the middle 50% of their QPF probability
between 1 and 2.5 inches. Average rainfall amounts are skewed
higher...a sign that some isolated locations will see 3+ inches
of rain. The EPS continues to advertise the region from Corsicana
to Sulphur Springs where more than 4 inches of rain is the
highest probability (about 15%). This is likely due to potentially
2 rounds of rain occurring there in the late afternoon with the
warm advection activity and again during the night with the squall
line. This QPF guidance is on the cusp of where a flood watch may
be needed, but given the low confidence we will hold off with
this package.
Dry advection behind the front and northwesterly flow aloft will
kick any lingering chances of showers south of the CWA by midday
Friday. Temperatures Thursday will be held down by the rain and
cloud cover (not so much from any cold advection behind the
front). Still, with highs in the low 80s areawide -- it will be
welcome even if it`s still a little damp/humid. Drier air will
work into the region by Friday and highs will again be in the low
80s despite more sunshine breaking through.
The real fall-like weather will occur Saturday with a stronger
reinforcing front moving through late Friday. Highs Saturday will
be in the low 70s with lows Saturday night in the mid 40s to low
50s! Dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the weekend
into early next week. That pattern in October always ensures
gorgeous weather here with dry air, mild afternoons, cool nights,
and plenty of sunshine and stars.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
A northward surge of Gulf moisture will bring a swath of MVFR cigs
into KACT 06-08Z and the DFW Metroplex 08-10Z. A few -SHRA can
also be expected, but at this time it looks like TSRA should
remain east of all TAF sites. Cigs should improve around 18Z,
followed by a line of TS moving in from the northwest ahead of a
cold front. VCTS has been introduced at 05/00Z at DFW along with a
TEMPO group from 02-06Z Wednesday night. FROPA will occur behind
the line of storms and beyond the current TAF period.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 90 69 82 66 / 20 70 100 60 20
Waco 74 89 71 81 67 / 20 70 90 80 30
Paris 70 81 67 77 62 / 50 90 100 70 20
Denton 72 90 67 82 61 / 20 70 100 50 20
McKinney 72 87 67 80 62 / 30 70 100 60 20
Dallas 75 89 70 82 66 / 30 70 100 60 20
Terrell 72 86 68 80 63 / 40 80 100 70 20
Corsicana 75 86 72 81 68 / 40 80 90 80 30
Temple 73 90 70 82 66 / 20 60 80 80 30
Mineral Wells 72 92 67 83 62 / 10 70 90 50 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Due to the cold front nearly through the forecast area we have
decided to cancel the watch. The environment becomes more stable
and drier behind the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023
At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
the CWA with a south-southwesterly flow aloft as an upper air low
spins over the easter MT/WY border. Current surface observations
along with radar imagery report scattered thunderstorms popping up
all across the CWA moving generally northeast as a cold front has
progressed around halfway from CO into the CWA. Going forward
through the rest of the day, models show the low opening into a
trough during the evening with the CWA keeping a west-southwesterly
flow through the night as the base moves over it. At the surface,
chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as the front
continues its eastward progress. Latest runs of the CAMs show these
chances ending for the CO counties around 23Z with the remaining
areas having their chances end around 01Z (when the current Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is expected to expire) as the line of storms
moves in central NE and central KS. Upon looking at model convective
parameters, bulk shear values well above 40 kts are seen across the
entire CWA during the time of expected convection with MLCAPE values
around 2000 J/kg just ahead of the front as it moves through. Due to
recent storm reports already experienced, potential storm hazards
include large hail up to 2 inches or greater in diameter, wind gusts
up to 70 mph, and brief tornados. Storms are moving quickly enough
that flash flooding does not appear to be an issue, but a brief
period of heavy rainfall has been experienced with storms so far and
can continue with storms going forward. Another concern with these
storms is that the strong wind gusts that they produce may cause
blowing dust lowering visibility drastically. After storms pass,
models show winds dying down allowing for a relatively calmer night
with skies clearing up and cooler temperatures. Overnight lows are
forecast to be between the lower 40s and lower 50s.
On Wednesday, forecast guidance continues to show the CWA under a
west-southwesterly flow with the trough reorienting itself with a
positive tilt in the morning with the trough axis to the west of the
CWA. The axis looks to pass over the CWA in the evening turning the
CWA`s upper air flow to northerly going through the night. At the
surface, models show the CWA seeing a much less active day compared
to Tuesday as a surface high pressure is expected to move from CO
across southern NE. This high expects to keep precipitation chances
minimal throughout the day with drier air moving into the region.
Daytime highs for Wednesday expect to be in the upper 60s to middle
70s followed by overnight lows in the lower to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Cooling off for the first part of the long term period with
potential frost/freeze for some over the weekend prior to a warming
trend into the start of next week.
On Thursday, flow aloft is out of the west-northwest with an upper
level trough over the northern CONUS and recent progression of a
shortwave trough east of the area. Late Thursday into Friday, upper
level troughing begins to sink south as ridging amplifies over the
western CONUS. Generally northwesterly to west-northwesterly flow
will continue throughout the long term period. A shortwave
disturbance looks to move through towards the beginning of next
week.
The long term period will be mostly dry aside from some slight
chances for showers late Thursday-early Friday, generally for
northern and eastern portions of the area. Main story will be the
cooler overnight temperatures with some locations over the weekend
forecast to reach freezing as high pressure is over the area. Will
continue to monitor this potential. Expect high temperatures in the
60s and 70s Thursday, upper 50s to middle 60s Friday, 60s and 70s
Saturday, followed by a warming trend back into the 70s and 80s to
start the week. Overnight lows will be generally in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds are expected
through the TAF as the surface high pressure builds in behind the
cold front. There could be LLWS behind the front at KGLD around 9z.
However not all guidance is suggesting this so will leave it out
for this TAF issuance.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JTL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
938 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Scattered to broken line of convection continues over central KS at
this time, with a few strong storms still occurring. Looking at the
current SPC mesoanalysis shows instability is starting to wane as
the convection moves to the east. So thinking that chance of
strong to severe storms is waning as well. So after discussions with
SPC have decided to cancel a portion of the severe thunderstorm
watch across central KS.
Latest RAP shows low level moisture transport will slowly veer east
into south central KS late this evening and overnight with the more
southerly area of convection probably becoming the more dominate
area of convection as we approach 05-06z. As the moisture transport
stay focused over south central KS, could see some
training/backbuilding over the storms between highway 50 and highway
54, which may lead to ponding over water in low lying area. Not too
sure that flooding will become too much of an issue given flash
flood guidance values over 3 inches and most areas haven`t seen any
rainfall in over 2 weeks.
Latest RAP suggests that the moisture transport will wane after 09-
10z, will probably lead to most of the showers/storms waning as
well. the main benefit of the next 4 or 5 hours is the beneficial
rainfall.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
A mid/upper trough over the Rockies today is progged to translate
eastward over the Northern and Central Plains through tomorrow
night. NAEFS height standardized anomalies are running around -1
standard deviations but this mid/upper trough is progged to become
less vigorous as we move through the short term periods. At the sfc,
a PAC front will become the focus for showers and storms as we move
into the evening hours. Ahead of this front, we may see some
elevated showers as we remain within a mid-lvl waa regime as a
potent pv anomaly rotates into the Northern Plains but the main show
is expected to develop along the advancing PAC front arriving late
across our forecast area. We expect a broad zone of low level
moisture pooling within an area of weak low-level mass convergence
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. The most vigorous storms
are expected to impact central KS mainly west of I-135 where the
best low-level buoyancy is progged after 01-02Z. Elevated storms
will become more likely as we move into the evening hours. Training
of storms along the slow moving boundary may produce some pockets of
heavy rain and ponding or water and/or localized flooding with PWATs
running around 1.4 inches or around the 90th percentile for early
Oct. The most vigorous activity is expected to wane towards midnight
or shortly thereafter although some elevated showers may linger,
especially across southeast KS.
A stable post-frontal regime will begin to build into central KS or
for areas mainly west of the Kansas Turnpike on Wed while some post-
frontal showers and storms may linger across southern and southeast
KS where some subtle large-scale forcing for ascent/mid-level warm
air advection lingers into the day. Drier and more seasonable air
will continue to gradually filter into the region late Wednesday
into early Thursday bringing an end to rain chances across the
region. More Fall-like conditions are expected to arrive late on
Thursday as a trailing cold front ushers in much cooler air across
the area.
Fri...Below normal temperatures will prevail in the wake of the cold
front with highs expected to top out in the low to mid 60s for most
areas on Fri. Sfc high pressure will settle across the area late Fri
night allowing strong radiational cooling across much of the area.
Some areas across our central KS counties may fall into the lower
30s with the threat for frost/freeze increasing.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Northwest mid/upper flow is progged to prevail through the period
which typically results in dry weather this time of year.
Temperatures will moderate through the period with mild values
anticipated as we move into early next week. Above normal
temperatures are anticipated with highs climbing into the 80s by
Mon-Tue for much of the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Scattered SHRA/TSRA ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to
prevailing TSRA for most of the central KS taf locations for the
early evening hours. Some of the heaviest convection could lead to
variable gusty winds of 35 to 40 kts and MVFR vsbys. Expect this
convection to steadily move further east for the late evening hours,
also impacting the KSLN/KHUT and KICT taf locations. So will include
some Tempo TSRA and MVFR vsbys for this chance as well.
Expect a wind shift to the west than NW as the convection pushes
east and the cold front pushes into central KS overnight. As the
front pushes into south central KS and southeast, expect VFR
conditions to return to central KS.
the frontal boundary may stall or linger into early on Wed over
south central KS, which may lead to another round of SHRA/TSRA on
Wed. But some uncertainty on how this will play out, so will not
include another TSRA mention for now.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 63 77 56 79 / 70 20 30 10
Hutchinson 60 75 52 78 / 70 10 20 10
Newton 62 77 54 78 / 70 20 20 10
ElDorado 63 79 56 78 / 70 30 40 10
Winfield-KWLD 65 81 58 81 / 70 40 50 10
Russell 53 75 49 76 / 60 0 0 0
Great Bend 55 73 49 75 / 70 10 0 0
Salina 60 77 52 78 / 70 10 10 0
McPherson 59 75 51 76 / 70 10 10 0
Coffeyville 65 80 62 79 / 70 60 70 20
Chanute 66 79 60 78 / 70 50 60 20
Iola 65 79 59 78 / 70 50 50 20
Parsons-KPPF 65 80 62 80 / 70 60 60 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Key Messages:
- Models and forecasters alike appear to be in good agreement with
severe storms firing across swrn/scntl Nebraska this afternoon.
- The best chance for the first freeze of the fall season
continues to be Saturday morning when skies will be clear, winds
light and the core of a Canadian high pressure system will be
drifting through cntl Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Models and forecasters alike appear to be in good agreement with
storms firing across swrn/scntl Nebraska this afternoon. The
forecast thunderstorm chances follow the NAMnest, HRRR and RAP
models. This places the best storm chances along and east of a line
from North Platte to O`Neill. Storm activity should exit east of
ncntl Nebraska by 00z-01z this evening. There are no other rain
chances after this evening in the short term forecast.
The 50-65kt 500mb jet sweeping in from the srn Rockies, steepening
lapse rates associated with height falls from and upper low across
the nrn Plains and PWAT 1.25-1.40 inches should support a
significant hail threat. The focus is a Pacific cold front predicted
to move east through swrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon.
Pacific high pressure will continue building through the wrn U.S.
and Nebraska Wednesday and Wednesday night. The models suggest the
potential for high clouds at times from a plume of upper level
moisture circulating through British Columbia and the nrn Rockies.
Otherwise, weather conditions will be tranquil. The short term model
blend plus bias correction suggested lows mostly in the 40s tonight
and Wednesday night. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s are in place
Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
The models continue to track a strong Canadian high pressure
system south through the Great Plains later this week. The high
pressure system will begin forming across AK tonight and is the
result of systems from the Bering Sea and Siberia merging. The high
pressure will strengthen to around 1034mb across wrn Canada and then
sail south to be located over scntl Nebraska Saturday morning.
As this reinforcing high moves in late Thursday night and Friday
morning, the models show an area of midlevel FGEN forming but just
the SREF, CMC and ECM produce rainfall. The GFS and NAM are dry. The
forecast continues to carry a chance POP Thursday night. The
expected cloud cover should limit low temperatures to above freezing
but a small window for freezing temperatures could develop across
nwrn Nebraska where clearing is possible.
The best chance for the first freeze of the fall season continues to
be Saturday morning when skies will be clear, winds light and the
core of the high pressure system will be drifting through cntl
Nebraska.
In the wake of the first freeze Saturday, an upper low will form
across ern NAM leading a block across the cntl U.S.. The models
advertise short wave ridging and moderating temperatures across wrn
and ncntl Nebraska. The forecast is dry Saturday and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
VFR is expected through the forecast period for western and north
central Nebraska terminals as mid and high clouds gradually exit
to the east. Some gusty west/northwest winds will remain through
mid evening in the wake of the cold front, then speeds decrease
slightly overnight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
727 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Mid to upper level ridging prevails near the TN Valley with the
region along the southern periphery of surface high pressure
centered over the Northeast conus. This continues deep layer
northeasterly flow within a moderate easterly pressure gradient
through Wednesday. Compared to the last couple days, it will
not be a near persistence forecast. A stronger easterly low-
level jet getting underway tonight will advect greater Atlantic
moisture into the region, with a touch of humidity returning
to the air mainly in the FL Counties on Wednesday. This will
also lead to greater coverage of cumulus clouds over the
aforementioned area. In addition, cannot rule out a couple
brief showers in the VLD-TLH-CTY area on Wednesday, although
dry conditions should prevail and maintained NIL PoPs. You
may have noticed the very hazy skies the past couple days,
induced by smoke from the Canadian wildfires making its way
around the high pressure ridge via the Atlantic Ocean. The
GOES 0.47 um - blue band as of Tuesday afternoon indicated
a belt of smoke aloft extending from our region well out
into the Atlantic. With a similar flow regime on Wednesday,
this should continue to advect into our area, and the HRRR
Smoke Model supports this. As such, have continued "Very
Hazy" conditions for much of the region through Wednesday.
Low temperatures will be higher tonight with the influx
of Atlantic moisture, ranging from the mid-50s in the colder
spots northwest to the mid-60s southeast. Model soundings
support highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday with
East-Northeast wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph from late morning
into the evening. A High risk of rip currents is expected
to continue through Wednesday for Walton, Gulf County south
facing and Franklin County beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Ridging aloft with high pressure at the surface will
result in clear skies and calm conditions through the short term as
large scale subsidence dominates. Additionally, smoke from the
wildfires in Canada has been riding the ridge to our area, leading
to hazy conditions across the entire area. Winds will remain out of
the ENE with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and lows in
the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Upper level troughing will begin as the weekend
kicks off with an associated cold front pushing through the forecast
area on Saturday. Weak forcing ahead of the front and meager
moisture return will result in very low PoP`s areawide. The front
will serve to lower temperatures this weekend into the 70s during
the day and the 50s at night. Additionally, dewpoints will mix out
quite well behind the front with values as low as the 40s, perhaps
dropping as low as the upper 30s in our northernmost AL and GA
counties. This could impact fire weather given the lack of rain in
our SE AL and western FL Panhandle counties.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Haze from agricultural burns continues through much of the area
and will continue to reduce vsbys from time to time to MVFR
overnight into Wednesday. Slightly stronger winds during the
daylight hours tomorrow may help improve conditions by mixing out
some of the haze. Otherwise, northeast winds will prevail with VFR
cigs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Our marine zones will remain under the influence of the area
of high pressure over most of the eastern US for the next couple
days. Winds are expected to freshen this evening possibly reaching
20kts, prompting the reissuance of a small craft advisory for the
majority of our marine zones. Seas outside of Apalachee Bay will
range from 3-5ft with winds out of the northeast. On Saturday, a
cold front will clock winds to northerly with post-frontal winds
approaching advisory criteria Saturday evening into Sunday Morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
A dry pattern will remain in place through much of the week.
On Wednesday afternoon Relative Humidity will bottom out from
the mid-30s to mid-40s from northwest to southeast, then moderate
slightly on Thursday into Friday. East-Northeast wind gusts of
15 to 20 mph are likely again on Wednesday, then decreasing
a bit for Thursday. Locally high dispersion is also possible in
portions of the FL Counties inland from the coast on Wednesday.
Overall, expect elevated fire weather concerns to persist for
the foreseeable future, especially with the lack of rainfall
over the drought stricken areas of Southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
There are no hydro concerns at this time with minimal
rainfall expected over the next seven days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 65 87 66 88 / 0 10 0 0
Panama City 67 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 61 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 62 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 65 86 65 86 / 0 10 0 0
Cross City 67 89 67 90 / 0 10 0 0
Apalachicola 70 84 71 83 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
FLZ108-114.
High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
Wednesday for GMZ752-770-772.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ755-765-775.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Worster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
751 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
The main weather concern today has been the haze caused by smoke
from Canadian wildfires reducing visibilities at times to less
than 2 miles in some spots. Regional METAR observations and sky
cameras have been showing an improvement in visibilities across
the area during the last few hours, and HRRR Near-Surface Smoke
model runs are showing that the smoke should continue to improve
through Wednesday morning as the ridge to the north shifts to the
east. However, those same HRRR runs are showing another mass of
smoke over the western Atlantic advecting southwest to Florida, so
additional rounds of haze could be a threat through the next few
days.
The forecast looks on track, with limited rain chances overnight,
and no significant forecast changes are planned for the evening
update.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Hazy conditions have been improving over the last few hours,
although some MVFR visibilities are lingering over southwest
Florida, and some brief periods of MVFR conditions cannot be ruled
out overnight further to the north as well. Haze will continue to
be a threat through Wednesday, although changes in the wind
pattern are giving some hope that vis restrictions will not be as
bad on Wednesday. Otherwise, mainly rain free conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours, with just a slight chance of
showers in the forecast over the interior Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure north of the waters is favoring breezy northeast
winds, continuing to run to exercise caution levels through late
tonight. Wind speeds will improve Wednesday, but an easterly surge
will bring windspeeds back up to cautionary levels Wednesday
night. Winds will turn to northerly Friday through the weekend,
with minimal rain chances. Otherwise, hazy conditions will limit
visibilities to as low as 2 miles at times through the next couple
of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 89 73 91 / 0 10 0 0
FMY 72 90 73 90 / 0 10 0 0
GIF 72 87 71 90 / 0 20 0 0
SRQ 71 91 72 91 / 0 10 0 0
BKV 67 89 68 91 / 0 10 0 0
SPG 75 87 76 89 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Fleming