Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/03/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1005 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure west of New England will provide dry and quiet
weather for much of this week. Near record warmth on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms late Friday into
Saturday. Should be drier Sunday into early next week, but it
could be breezy at times.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update: 10 PM...
Forecast continues on track this evening, though did trend
overnight lows down a bit cooler do to the quickly falling
temperatures, otherwise no major changes necessary during this
update.
Cooler spots likely to drop into the low and middle-40s. Have
noticed very patchy fog beginning to develop across typical
locations that see radiational cooling and fog.
Previous Discussion...
Clear conditions persist through the overnight as strong mid level
ridging and surface high pressure continues to build into southern
New England. Previous HRRR smoke forecasts performed poorly during
the daylight hours on Monday, such that any smoke that was
previously expected over the region this evening and tonight, which
would perhaps have a mild influence on radiational cooling, was
removed from the forecast.
In addition to the removal of smoke in the near term forecast, lower
than forecast dewpoints have developed, thus, trended dewpoints
towards the lower bound of guidance, namely using the NAM. Dewpoints
in the 40s and low 50s will act as the lower bound for temperatures
overnight, with decent radiational cooling expected as winds
decouple under clear conditions. Radiation fog is expected to
develop across our fog prone interior localities, especially along
the CT River Valley and southeast MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
This beautiful stretch of weather, really by any time of year`s
standard but especially early October, continues into Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees either side of 80F for highs;
some 10-12 degrees above normal, as synoptic flow turns more WNW
tomorrow, allowing 850mb temps of 15-17C to build over our area. Any
morning fog will dissipate by 15Z.
Winds are expected to be lighter tomorrow compared to what was
observed today given the weak LLJ of 15-25kt draped over
southeastern MA and RI, born from the pesky coastal remnant low
across the far southern waters, is suppressed even farther south.
Given the HRRR smoke performed so poorly for Monday, and satellite
obs provide no reasonable origin for smoke tomorrow, did not include
haze/smoke in the forecast. Anticipating it will be a beautiful,
bluebird day for the region. The RAP, which performed slightly better
on Monday, yields very low smoke concentrations, that would amount
to not much more than a slight haze on the low horizon.
Tuesday night will feature similar conditions to Monday night,
though will be warmer as dewpoints warm into the 50s and 60s. As
with most nights during Fall, River Valley radiation fog is again
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Dry and quiet weather continues through at least Thursday if not
Friday. Still mild on Wed, but temps trending more seasonable as
we head late into the week.
* Next shot for widespread showers is late Fri into Sat with
thunderstorms possible.
* Drier and cooler Sun/Mon.
Details...
Wednesday and Thursday...
The mid level ridge axis that has been/will be controlling our
weather of late should be directly over SNE Wednesday morning as is
slowly marches east. At the surface the center of the high will be
just out ahead of it. This spells very light winds with seabreezes
at the coast and subsidence keeping clouds to a bare minimum each
day. Temperatures Wednesday will once again be very warm for early
October, especially in the interior where highs will get into the
low 80s (compared to normal which is around 70). Cooler but still
abnormally warm along the coast, in the 70s. For Thursday the
airmass moderates a bit as 850 temps drop from 17C to 14-15C
allowing highs to cool several degrees, to the mid/upper 70s. There
will be a good amount of radiational cooling overnight so the
forecast has been trended toward the MOS guidance, in the low to mid
50s for lows.
Friday and Saturday...
A high amplitude trough then digs into the Great Lakes by Saturday,
so in the 12-24 hours leading up to that we`ll see winds turn out of
the SW and direct a very moist airmass into the region ahead of the
trough. This means increasing cloudcover Friday, with potentially
even some warm frontal showers as early as Friday afternoon.
Guidance at this point remains split as to how quickly warm
advection precip arrives but at this point it is looking like we
won`t escape with a completely dry day on Friday. The wettest period
looks to be Friday night and Saturday, continuing our tradition of
wet weekends this year. Some guidance indicates a few hundred J/kg
of CAPE ahead of the cold front along with strong bulk shear so we
may be dealing with some thunderstorm activity, but too soon for
details at this juncture. Good news is that the second half of the
weekend looks to be post frontal and drier (though still under
cyclonic flow). Regardless of precip chances, temperatures will
likely be taking quite a drop for the second half of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast
Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z Update...
Through Tuesday morning...
VFR, with the exception of patchy IFR/LIFR at fog prone
terminals like BAF and BDL just prior to sunrise Tuesday.
Otherwise, N/NE winds this afternoon of 10-15kt diminish
overnight as they turn W/SW for by early morning.
Tuesday and Tuesday night... VFR as patchy morning fog burns
off by 15Z. Winds generally W/WSW, less than 10kt.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. E/ENE winds gusting to
15 kt today diminish overnight becoming WSW for Tuesday, less
than 10kt. VFR through the period.
KBDL Terminal...moderate confidence in TAF. VFR through
midnight tonight, patchy fog may develop by sunrise yielding
IFR/LIFR conditions but confidence is low to moderate. Winds
generally light, becoming W/WSW for tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely, isolated TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Relatively light winds expected across the waters through
Tuesday. Seas will gradually subside through Tuesday with any
remaining SCA falling off overnight tonight and early Tuesday.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated
thunderstorms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Temperatures for October 3rd
BOS 85 in 1922
BDL 85 in 1919
PVD 83 in 1919 and 1922
ORH 83 in 1898
Record Daily High Temperatures for October 4th
BOS 86 in 2007
BDL 86 in 2007
PVD 85 in 1941 and 1959
ORH 85 in 1898 and 1931
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KS
NEAR TERM...BW/Dooley/KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/KS
MARINE...BW/KS
CLIMATE...STAFF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
518 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 307 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
KEY POINTS:
1. Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening into
overnight across far east Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle.
Primary threat will be strong, gusty winds, but hail and and a
brief tornado or landspout cannot be ruled out.
2. Special Weather Statement remains in effect for strong wind
gusts 45 to 55+ mph possible associated with the strong cold
front.
3. Much cooler temperatures expected tomorrow following the cold
front.
DISCUSSION: Satellite imagery shows a decent circulation over the
southwest corner of Wyoming with a broad plume of moisture ahead
of it currently producing strong thunderstorms. Just ahead of the
larger plume is a smaller line of thunderstorms that have
developed along the Laramie Range and are starting to push east
into the High Plains. CAPE values are a bit lower than what was
expected 24 hours ago, areas of 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the
High Plains with shear values 30-50 knots. These conditions when
combined with the increase in moisture are plenty to produce
strong to severe thunderstorms. In addition, models are still
showing a broad area of frontogenesis along the front, which will
further help intensify these storms. Taking a glance at the HiRes
guidance, mainly the HRRR and NAM Nest, there will likely be
multiple rounds of rainfall today across the High Plains, but the
initial round associated with the frontal passage is the most
concerning one in terms of severe potential. With DCAPE values of
800 to 1200 J/kg and the strong jet max further intensifying
aloft, strong winds are the primary concern for these storms.
However, we cannot ignore the strong shear values, especially
north of the North Platte River Valley, so hail and a brief
tornado or landspout cannot be ruled out. In terms of timing, the
first line of storms entered Carbon County this afternoon around
noon, and is now approaching the Laramie Range at about 3 PM, so
it will likely enter the Nebraska panhandle between 5 PM and 7 PM.
Another area to look at though is the development ahead of this
line in Colorado that the HiRes has moving north into the southern
Nebraska panhandle before getting overrun by the stronger line of
storms. Following a few lines of strong thunderstorms, there is
additional stratiform rainfall possible, mainly after 10 PM MT.
Did overall increase rainfall totals east of the Laramie Range to
widespread 0.20-0.30 inches with localized higher amounts possible
in strong and training storms. As the much cooler airmass moves
in, rainfall will transition to snowfall in the mountains with the
bulk of the snow falling Tuesday. Current forecast totals are 4 to
6 inches in the highest peaks.
As the low moves east and the pressure gradient tightens, stronger
winds are also likely with the strongest being in the wind-prone
areas of southeast Wyoming: Arlington and Bordeaux. Wind gusts
45-55+ mph are possible through Tuesday morning, decreasing
Tuesday afternoon.
While temperatures will begin to drop as cloud cover increases,
the main temperature drop with the cold front is lagging around an
hour or two behind the line of storms. Rawlins, WY hit their high
temperature of 61 degrees at around 11:15 AM, started getting
thunderstorms in the area, then dropped to 48 degrees at around 1
PM. High temperatures Tuesday are in the 50s and 60s across
southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle, which is right about
normal for early October, if not a few degrees cooler.
Looking at Tuesday, the initial rainfall from the event will be
tapering off to the east through early Tuesday morning, then the
wraparound moisture pushes in, increasing precipitation chances
one again. This time around, showers should remain relatively
scattered with rainfall at lower elevations and snowfall in the
mountains. Due to these much cooler temperatures, areas of frost
are possible in the Laramie Valley, since this still 36 hours
away, decided not to do any products for it yet.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
The main focus of the long term forecast remains on the potential
for a weak clipper system with significant uncertainty, and for
freezing temperatures for much of the area by late week.
Wednesday looks like a fairly quiet day with cooler temperatures in
place behind the impending storm system. Most precipitation should
be done, aside from a few rain/snow showers clinging into the higher
terrain. On the synoptic scale, expect a decent ridge to be building
over the West Coast, while a trough deepens near the Great Lakes.
Fairly active northwest flow will develop over our area with
frequent shortwaves riding along it. The first clipper system
approaches Wednesday night and will push the ridge back westward
slightly. This may return cloud cover and showers to our northern
zones, particularly the northern Laramie range favored by northerly
winds, for Thursday. While there is decent confidence in this
reinforcing the chilly air for Thursday and Friday, the
precipitation outcome is fairly uncertain, especially for Thursday
night into early Friday. Model guidance is sharply split. While
roughly 50% of the ECMWF ensemble members track this clipper far
enough west to bring precipitation to the high plains, just a single
GEFS member does the same. Moreover, it is not out of the question
if the ECMWF ensemble solution verifies that snow levels drop to
below 5000 ft. About one third of the ECMWF ensemble members have
measurable snow over a good swath of the high plains. The NBM
incorporates a fairly heavy ECMWF ensemble weighting, so decided to
trim back PoPs slightly due to the lack of support from other
ensemble systems. Still maintained slight chance PoPs for the same
geographic areas, but cut back on the magnitude.
The clipper system should be to our east by Friday afternoon,
allowing for clearing skies and a warming trend to begin. However,
the precise timing of the clearing will likely determine temperature
outcome for the week. First, the initial cold front will return most
of the area to the 30s for overnight lows Wednesday and Thursday
morning. It will be close to frost temperatures, so expect patchy
freezes in low-lying cold spots both mornings even over the high
plains. However, the reinforcing shot of cold air Thursday night may
lead to more widespread chances for freezing temperatures. There may
be some northerly breezes Friday morning preventing pure radiative
cooling from taking over, but a good chunk of the plains still has a
50% or greater chance of freezing temperatures Friday morning.
Radiative cooling looks like a better bet Saturday, although models
disagree on how quickly the ridge axis will shift eastward. The
slower ECMWF ensemble gives another good chance at widespread
freezing temperatures Saturday, while the faster GEFS brings warmer
air more quickly and starts to rebound temperatures by Friday. This
would still mean 30s and some isolated freezing, but much less
widespread. Regardless, those with sensitive vegetation outside or
outdoor plumbing should consider beginning to prepare for freezing
temperatures by the second half of the week. Beyond that, it looks
like a pretty ideal autumn weekend coming up, with a broad ridge and
above normal temperatures working into the Rocky Mountain region.|
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 511 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Widespread showers and thunderstorms currently across southeast
Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle where some have produced wind
gusts near 50 knots already. Overall VFR conditions expected until
the thunderstorms move over the TAF terminal then reductions to
MVFR and IFR VIS is likely. Timing has been tricky to forecast
with the multiple clusters of storms forming and subsequent
outflow boundaries, but storms should progressively be ending
across southeast Wyoming by 3Z and in the Nebraska panhandle by
9Z. Following these storms, strong winds are expected tomorrow
starting in southeast Wyoming by 13Z and the Nebraska panhandle by
16Z. Mainly westerly winds with gusts 30 to 35+ knots expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Little to no fire weather concerns in the upcoming week due to
continued chances for rainfall and cooler temperatures with higher
humidity values.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEG
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...LEG
FIRE WEATHER...LEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
706 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
depicts a fairly amplified synoptic pattern, with strong longwave
troughing over the western CONUS and longwave ridging over the
eastern CONUS. These features will translate slowly eastward
through the short term period as multiple vorticity maxima rotate
around the western trough. At the surface, lee troughing has
already become well-established ahead of the significant wave,
centered near Cheyenne, WY. The pressure field between this trough
and high pressure over the northeast CONUS is resulting in strong
southerly winds across southwest KS today, with winds sustained
in the 15-25 mph range gusting to 25-35 mph. These winds are also
contributing to another unseasonably warm early October day, with
highs reaching into the mid/upper 80s during the mid-afternoon.
Later tonight, high-resolution guidance suggests a decaying
thunderstorm complex or two will roll into the western zones
before dissipating west US-283. This activity should remain
pretty tame, however the combination of at least a few hundred
J/Kg of CAPE, 20-25 kts of bulk shear, and 850-mb winds already
around 40 kts indicates isolated severe wind gusts cannot be
ruled out. Otherwise, expect the traditional diurnal minimum in
winds while temperatures drop into the low to mid 50s.
Daytime Tuesday, the upper level trough will continue its slow
progression eastward, maintaining the tight surface pressure
gradient across southwest KS and fostering yet another warm, windy
afternoon with highs in the low/mid 80s. Focus then shifts to the
potential for a more widespread/noteworthy severe weather event
across portions of our area Tuesday afternoon/evening. During the
18-00Z time frame, a vorticity maximum will eject northeastward
from the eastern Four Corners region into the Central Plains. As
increasing forcing for ascent overspreads a N-S oriented dryline
across western KS, thunderstorm initiation is expected by 21Z.
Some disagreement persists amongst guidance regarding the
placement of this dryline, however current thinking is it will
reside near or just west of US-283 at the time of convective
development. Roughly 1500-2500 J/Kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of
deep-layer shear will exist east of the dryline, supporting
initial supercells capable of producing large hail (some
potentially significant), damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a
brief, isolated tornado. That said, strong forcing for ascent and
shear vectors nearly parallel to the initiating boundary would
suggest rapid upscale growth is likely, leading to a transition to
damaging wind gusts becoming the primary threat. Thunderstorm
complex will sweep across the remainder of the area through the
evening hours, eventually exiting stage right by 06-07Z Wednesday.
Immediately behind this convective activity, a strong cold front
will push through southwest KS as the strong upper level trough
continues east. Northerly winds behind the front along with
thunderstorm outflow will allow temperatures to drop into the
upper 40s to mid 50s by sunrise Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Key Messages: Cool, fall-like temperatures will bless southwest KS
through much of the long term period, with a potential warm-up
Sunday/Monday. No robust, widespread precipitation chances, but
some light showers possible Friday favoring the northern zones.
Medium range ensembles are in agreement at the beginning of the
long term period, indicating upper level longwave troughing will
bisect the CONUS between two ridges over the east and west coasts.
Weak surface high pressure will be building into the central
plains daytime Wednesday behind the previous night`s cold
front/thunderstorms, and 10-20 mph north/northeast winds will
advect cooler temperatures equatorward with afternoon highs in the
low to mid 70s. 500-mb heights will begin to rise on Thursday as
the strong upper trough begins to depart, however persistent
northerly winds will hold temperatures near normal once again
(mid/upper 70s).
On Friday, ensembles suggest another substantial vorticity max
will dive southward on the western periphery of the parent upper
level trough, and send a reinforcing shot of cool air into
southwest KS. Confidence in afternoon temperatures in the 60s is
quite high given probability of exceeding 70 degrees F from the
GEFS is only in the 10-30% range for much of our area.
Additionally, EPS meteograms suggest some light rain showers may
accompany this scenario favoring the northern zones, although QPF
will likely be minimal. Perhaps the more noteworthy impact would
be Saturday morning temperatures as NBM lows approach freezing
along and north of KS-96, however probability of temperatures
below 40 is only in the 10-20% range, so this outcome seems
unlikely at the moment. Daytime Saturday and beyond, ensembles
depict the strong upper level trough finally departing the High
Plains, with ridging building in its wake. This pattern would
support a gradual warming trend through the end of the period,
with little to no chances for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
South winds will persist through the period as a surface trough
remains in the lee of the Rockies. An upper level storm system
will approach through the period. Thunderstorms developing over
the high plains this evening will venture close to the TAF sites
through 03z. Another round of storms is expected to form on the
high plains and move into the KGCK area by 05-08z. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop toward the end of the period at KGCK and
KDDC as the main upper level trough approaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 83 54 74 / 40 50 40 10
GCK 61 82 51 72 / 60 30 20 0
EHA 58 81 49 71 / 60 10 10 0
LBL 59 83 52 73 / 50 30 20 10
HYS 64 83 52 72 / 40 80 60 0
P28 67 84 60 77 / 30 80 80 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Finch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
624 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Key messaging highlights:
* Warm again Tue, but not quite approaching records
* Chances for showers and storms starting west Tue afternoon,
lingering overnight and southeast by Wednesday afternoon. A few
strong to severe storms possible far west late Tue.
* Mainly dry and cooler to end the week. Coldest temps of the season thus far.
A significant pattern change will occur through the forecast
period with a shift from our persistent mid CONUS upper level
ridging into a deep mean trough by the end of the week. This will
bring much cooler temperatures, which will be the coolest of the
season to date. Little change is anticipated in the meantime
however, with continued warm temperatures tonight and again Tue as
steady southerly flow remains in place. The airmass isn`t
expected to change much, but increasing cloudiness should keep
highs Tue just below persistence. Fire weather conditions will be
somewhat elevated tomorrow as well with warm temps and breezier
south winds spreading eastward. A few crop fires have already
occurred in recent days, and Tuesday may be a bit more favorable.
The first sign of the pattern change will occur west by tomorrow
afternoon with chances for showers and thunderstorms back in the
forecast. Remnants of the current AZ/UT lobe of forcing associated
with the developing western CONUS upper trough are expected to
reach the MO Valley Tuesday afternoon helping to spread mid and
upper level cloudiness eastward. This vertical motion will be
coincident with a narrow ribbon of likely uncapped instability
(750-1500 J/kg MLCAPEs) which should blossom convection across
eastern NE and push into our forecast area during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Strong to severe discrete cells are
quite possible to our west at onset, with 40-50kts of effective
shear and what appears to be increased effective layer streamwise
inflow and elevated SRH. However due to the upper trough
orientation the effective shear will be more parallel to the front
with the eastward longevity of the severe threat in question and
a quick evolution to a more linear orientation anticipated. With
steeper low level lapse rates and convection likely decreasing in
intensity west to east in time due to advancing beyond the
instability axis and less favorable shear profiles, gusty winds
would appear to be our primary severe weather threat, and mainly
northwest, which is supported by recent HREF and HRRR neural
network output. Weaker convection is expected to slowly advance
through the forecast area overnight into Wednesday, with a
possible uptick in strength southeast during peak heating as
effective shear remains 40+kts with elongated hodographs. There is
little reflection of any potential in any machine learning
guidance however, so while it is something to monitor the
potential remains low. Although parts of NE and northwest IA may
see heavier rains, rainfall amounts in our forecast area are
expected to have little in the way of drought impacts.
The forecast will be mainly dry from Wednesday evening through
the remainder of the forecast with the main story being the
maturing MS Valley/Great Lakes long wave trough. There will be
slight chances for nuisance light rain around Friday, but this is
mainly due to deeper moisture and saturation. QG forcing will be
either neutral or even subsidence. Our main sensible weather
reflection will be falling temperatures with the initial front
Wednesday, and then another cooler air surge late Thursday. Frost
will even be possible by Saturday or Sunday morning with lows in
the 30s. Which night will be favored depends on sufficiently low
wind speeds and cloud trends, which appears to be the latter at
this point. Iowa will remain under the trailing influences of the
departing mean trough through the end of the period with weakening
northwest flow aloft. The forecast will remain dry with little in
the way of sufficiently phased moisture or forcing. Temperatures
should moderate back closer to normal to end the weekend and start
the next work week as the surface high finally retreats eastward.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period with high
clouds moving in tomorrow morning. Primary impact to TAFs this
period will be gusty winds out of the south as a cold front
approaches the area tomorrow. Winds will begin to increase in the
morning following sunrise and will peak in intensity in the early
afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30
mph are possible, with occasional gusts over 30 mph possible,
especially north and west.
Late tomorrow, showers and storms will begin to move into western
Iowa and make their way east through the state overnight. Better
chances will be in the west and diminishing as they move east.
Precipitation will be mostly outside of this TAF period, so did
not include in TAFs for this issuance.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Record High Temperatures for October 2 (Monday)
City - Record High Temperature - Year of Record
Des Moines - 92F - 1953
Waterloo - 93F - 1953
Mason City - 92F - 1997
Ottumwa - 93F - 1953
Lamoni - 94F - 1953
Record High Temperatures for October 3 (Tuesday)
City - Record High Temperature - Year of Record
Des Moines - 92F - 1997
Waterloo - 95F - 1997
Mason City - 95F - 1997
Ottumwa - 92F - 2006
Lamoni - 90F - 1997 (and previous years)
For reference, climatic normal values for the first week of
October include high temperatures in the 60s with lows in the 40s.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...Dodson
CLIMATE...KCM/Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
729 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Clearing of low clouds has been making good progress northward the
last few hours with clearing at 00z New Rockford to Lakota to
Grafton to Hallock. Winds at the sfc light and variable for the
most part...weak trough moving thru so some winds are turning NW
in NW MN and E ND from GFK to FAR. Winds later tonight should turn
south again in many areas. Will keep some fog and low clouds in
the far NW fcst area. Will watch to see if clearing stops and low
clouds try to develop a bit southeast again, as this is what
many short term guidances indicate. Thunderstorms in western
Nebraska and moving into SW South Dakota at 00z and latest HRRR
indicates storms moving almost due north into central ND after
midnight and thru DVL basin, but chances farther east Grand Forks
and Fargo look a lot lower so did tweek pops some for a bit lower
pops than NBM showed. 40-50 kt 850 mb jet moving northward with
this system along with enough 850 mb instability for t-storms,
though degree of instability from parcel lifted from 850 mb isnt
great as 500 mb temps are warm. So degree of hail potential may be
limited due to warm column to 500 mb, but fast movement of storms
may lead toward marginally severe wind gusts. Area outlined
including DVL basin looks reasonable attm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Key Messages:
-SW flow continues to bring warm southerly flow through tomorrow.
Temperatures in the 80s to low 90s today and upper 70s to lower 80s
tomorrow. Cooler in Devils Lake Basin towards the northern Red River
Valley.
-Chances for showers and storms overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Isolated strong to severe storms possible in the Devils Lake Basin.
-Another round of showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with isolated strong to severe storms possible.
Discussion:
A stratus deck continues to linger across NE ND into Kittson and
Marshall county this afternoon. This cloud deck will continue
through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. This
will limit temperatures to the 60s to 70s for areas underneath the
clouds. Areas outside of the clouds will see the mid 80s to
potential lower 90s. Areas that could see the lower 90s would be in
the southern Red River Valley. Overnight fog will be a potential as
dew points remain rather high and temperatures drop into the upper
50s to 60s overnight. Main area that could see patchy fog will be in
the Devils Lake Basin into portions of the northern Red River
Valley. Visibilities may be reduced to a quarter of a mile at times
from 9z through 15z.
The next system pushes across SD into central ND along the SW flow
aloft later this evening and into the overnight hours. Chances for
showers and storms increase for the Devils Lake Basin by 09-12z.
Main synoptic and frontogentic energy is farther to the west into
central ND, but a few models (20%) have the forcing shifting into
the Devils Lake Basin. The area that sees the synoptic with
correlated frontogentic forcing would have the potential for stronger
thunderstorms. If the forcing shifts further eastward, this would
affect the Devils Lake Basin. Its a low chance (20%) of happening in
the Devils Lake Basin, but if it where to occur main impacts would
be lightning, isolated gusts up to 60mph and up to quarter size
hail.
Post 12z, a LLJ begins to set up across the Red River Valley with 30-
35kts of shear from the 0-6km level. Frontogentic and synoptic
forcing moves eastward into the unstable airmass during the late
afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible (20%) across eastern ND and into adjacent
MN. The LLJ remains strong across the region during the evening
hours allowing for the storms to grow and potentially get strong.
Clearing of the clouds, daytime heating, and instability are still
uncertain as they will affect the strong to severe potential across
the area. Storms linger into the early morning hours on Wednesday
and push eastward into NW MN. Aloft our winds start to shift to the
NW with further systems affecting the area Wednesday evening into
Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Key Messages:
-SW flow turns towards the NW with a system digging into the
northern plains Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms possible along and north of Highway 2, with
the best chances towards Lake of the Woods.
-Stronger winds are possible Thursday as the cold front passes
through the area. Winds have the chance (40-50%) to gust up to 45kts
along and west of the Red River Valley.
-After the front passes Thursday temperatures drop to below average,
with increased chances for a widespread freeze Friday night into
Saturday.
-Drier conditions as we move into the weekend, with warming
temperatures once again.
Discussion:
SW flow turns toward the NW Wednesday night and into Thursday
morning, with a system affecting the region during this time frame.
Main source of instability is cut off from the south limiting
coverage of thunderstorms across the area. Main forcing is synoptic,
with most likely scenario being scattered rain showers across the
northern forecast area. Highest chances will be towards Lake of the
Woods and NE MN. Up to 0.5 inches is possible (20-30%) in Lake of
the Woods. The rest of the area the chance of seeing up to 0.5
inches is <20%.
After the showers pass temperatures begin to drop as a strong Jet
develops aloft at the 500-250mb level. Strong push of cold air
advection pushes into the forecast area by Thursday afternoon.
Lapse rates reach 8-9.5 C/km correlated to the surge of colder air.
This increases the chances for seeing strong winds in the afternoon
and evening for the area. 40-50% chance of seeing up to 45kts for
gusts in eastern ND and into adjacent areas in NW MN. Areas east of
the Red River could see up to 35kt gusts. Further into the trees it
will be harder to get stronger winds as we have a NW direction.
Winds will decrease gradually overnight, with temperatures dropping
into the mid 30s in the Devils Lake Basin and the upper 30s for the
rest of the area. Temperatures will remain below average through the
remainder of the work week and into the first part of the weekend.
Highs will reach the mid to upper 40s for the northern forecast
area Friday and lower 50s further south. The likelihood of our first
widespread freeze potential would be on Saturday morning, with a
majority of the area reaching down into the lower 30s. Temperatures
then rebound back into the 60s by Sunday and into the new work week
as a ridge amplifies over the SW United States. Dry conditions ensue
across the region end of the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
DVL likely to remain in IFR or lower end MVFR flight category into
Tuesday. Clearing of low clouds is approaching but unsure if it
will make it through that area as sunset has past. Otherwise rest
of TAF sites in the VFR range into Tuesday. Some increased chances
for shower/t-storms but coverage Tuesday daytime more scattered vs
more widespread overnight into DVL basin where did mention TSRA
after 10z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Spender
LONG TERM...Spender
AVIATION...Riddle
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1025 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Seasonally hot temperatures wind down after today, remaining
warmer than normal on Tuesday.
2. Scattered-numerous showers/storms Tuesday, with potential for
isolated severe storms (mainly wind) and locally heavy rain during
the afternoon/evening.
3. Pattern transitions mid-week to bring cooler than normal
temperatures with first chances for frost Friday night-early
Saturday.
....................................................................
Under the anomalously strong ridge, temperatures have again soared
up into the mid 80s to lower 90s as of 2 PM. Unsurprisingly, our warm
temperatures are accompanied by breezy southerly winds, causing wind
gusts into the mid 20s to mid 30s. With relative humidity values
dipping down into the 30s and upper 20s, high fire danger is also
resulting due to warm and dry conditions. Ensemble situational
awareness tables (ESATs) continue to show temperatures throughout
the air parcel AOA the 90th percentile of climatology, which will
keep temperatures within grasp of record high daily temperatures, or
create the new record. The following are the record highs for today.
Record High Temperatures for October 2:
KFSD: 92/1953
KSUX: 94/1997
KHON: 94/1910 and 1997
KMHE: 93/1910 and 1953
After sunset, winds turn slightly more south-southeasterly, and
after decoupling from the boundary layer gustiness will decrease
though sustained winds will remain on the breezy side overnight.
Given the warm air already in place and breezy sustained winds
continuing, warm overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 60s are
again expected. For those keeping track, these temperatures are
indeed near our daily high temperatures...and will thus likely be
breaking our daily record high minimum temperatures, which are as
follows:
Record Warm Low Temperatures for October 2:
KFSD: 68/1938
KSUX: 66/1900
KHON: 67/1884
KMHE: 68/1953
Otherwise, a shortwave from the upper level trough axis to our west
spawns a surface low pressure over western Nebraska/South Dakota
along the baroclinic zone overnight. This will keep the surface
pressure gradient (SPG) strengthened as the accompanying cold front
is dragged eastwards, resulting in another day with breezy southerly
winds. After sunrise, winds will quickly become breezy with gusts
into the lower to mid 30s, aside from areas along and west of the
James who will remain in the 20s due to their closer proximity to
the cold front.
While temperatures on Tuesday will remain above average, there is
some uncertainty given chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the region throughout the day. The convection allowing models (CAMs)
that produce rainfall throughout the morning hours limit our heating
potential, keeping afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s, and the
CAMs that keep us dry bring portions of the area back up into the
mid 80s. While not every model shows this, some models show weak
positive vorticity advection out ahead of the main wave thus keeping
the possibility for scattered morning showers and thunderstorms.
However, given the weak forcing aloft and general weak instability,
am inclined to think any showers/storms will be more isolated.
By the late morning and into the afternoon hours, the aforementioned
surface low will be well off to our north, with a dry line possibly
draped down between the I-29 corridor and the James River Valley.
Models continue to show that instability will be marginal throughout
the event, coming in ever so slightly weaker than their 00Z
counterparts, with most keeping CAPE values constrained in the 1000-
1500 J/kg range. Soundings from across the area show marginal/decent
backing shear in the lower levels, with speed shear dominating the
rest of the sounding profile along with some veering winds in there
as well. The HREF shows the mean surface to 500 mb shear tops out at
around 50 knots, largely due to the speed component, and given the
relatively weak instability the shear may actually limit how strong
the storms are able to become. As mentioned by the previous
discussion, the ESATs continue to show strong 850mb winds exceeding
the 90th percentile of climatology across areas generally along and
east of I-29, with the RAP also picking up on 850mb winds exceeding
40 knots.
The main wave approaching from the east-southeast will be the one to
watch, as that is what the CAMs are showing will spark off the
thunderstorms by the early/mid afternoon hours across central
Nebraska. Given the strong 850 mb winds, the storms are expected to
race northeastwards as the wave comes in from the east, with the
primary threat being strong damaging winds to 65 mph. The HRRR
neural network shows we could see brief hail threat towards the
beginning of the event for areas west of I-29, with the CSU GEFS
machine learning probabilities showing similar probabilities for
areas along and west of I-29. While a tornado can`t be entirely
ruled out, chances look to remain on the lower side but will see
best chances for areas along the dry line (again west of I-29). With
locally heavy rainfall possible and numerous chances for rain given
the various boundaries and forcing, can`t rule out a very isolated
flooding threat, but given the quickly moving storms any location
would need to see multiple rounds of thunderstorms within a short
time period. Showers and thunderstorms end overnight from west to
east as the cold front plows eastward.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
By Wednesday morning, the cold front will have finished sweeping
through, with early morning temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. As
a weak high pressure develops at the surface just south of the
region, we`ll see periods of breezy north-northwesterly winds before
the surface high slides eastwards which will bringing calmer winds
back to the region. While Wednesday will be much closer to normal
temperatures than we have been, we will have shifted into
temperatures below normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
60s whereas normal highs would be in the upper 60s. This will be a
sharp contrast to the temperatures we have been experiencing, but
will remind all that fall is indeed here.
Overnight into Thursday, the jet max reinforces the trough aloft,
strengthening the winds back up again as a new surface low pressure
moves into the northern great plains from Saskatchewan/Manitoba,
Canada. This will bring our next cold front into the region with
afternoon highs a bit lower into the lower to mid 60s, and breezy
northwest winds.
A surface high pressure develops off to the west as ridging develops
off to the west. This will likely bring another shot of cooler air
into the region on Friday, cooling us off into the lower to mid 50s
for afternoon highs. Chances for frost return to the area Friday
night into Saturday, though that will depend on how breezy we are
and when the surface ridge axis slides overhead. Temperatures start
to warm up again to become near normal by Sunday/Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
The main concerns will be thunderstorm chances, especially east of
the James River late tomorrow afternoon and night. A few of these
storms will contain heavy rain as well as bring the potential for
severe weather. Isolatedf to scattered activity will be possible
during the morning into the early afternoon but is not expected to
have as much impact and is more difficult to forecast timing.
Otherwise some LLWS will be possible overnight during periods of
lighter winds at the surface.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
718 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Have adjusted the pops for this evening to reflect the going HRRR
guidance. The latest run does show a line of storms forming
around 05z Tuesday along the Colorado border. Based on the
current areal coverage on radar, low chances right now, but will
hold and see how things progress in the next couple hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis
shows the CWA with a south-southwesterly flow aloft being between an
upper air low over the NV/UT border and an upper air ridge over the
eastern CONUS. Current surface observations and satellite imagery
report dry and windy conditions with clouds bubbling up and moving
slowly northward across the CWA. Going through the rest of today,
models forecast the western low starting to open into a trough in
the late evening/overnight hours and moving eastward over the CO/UT
border keeping the south-southwesterly flow. A shortwave disturbance
is also seen moving through the flow over the CWA in the evening. At
the surface, models show a surface low in CO moving north-northeast
across NE going through the evening. A tight pressure gradient is
seen across the CWA allowing for the windy conditions to persist
with models showing southerly winds gusting up to around 40 kts in
some places. Near critical fire weather conditions are a concern
with these winds as well as blowing dust with how dry it has been in
the CWA lately. This low pressure system also looks to set up a
north-south boundary feature in eastern CO during the late afternoon
and evening allowing for scattered showers and storms to develop.
These precipitation chances look to spread across the remainder of
the CWA going into the night. Storms do show a marginal potential to
become severe during the evening as well for the western two-thirds
of the CWA with SBCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and bulk shear values
over 30 kts in these areas. Potential hazards look to be primarily
strong wind gusts up to 60 mph with forecast DCAPE values over 1000
J/kg as well as how the storm clusters look to orient themselves in
model runs. There is also the possibility for large hail up to a
quarter in size with discrete cells, but this looks to be a lesser
concern compared to winds though the large hail chance is non-zero.
Current QPF values look to range from a few hundredths to a few
tenths in the far southern portions of the CWA. PWAT values around
1.3 inches are seen in the south with values greater than an inch
seen across the remainder of the area so locally heavy rainfall
cannot be ruled out as well. Low temperatures tonight are expected
to be in the upper 40s to lower 60s.
For Tuesday, model guidance shows the western trough continuing its
eastward progress allowing the CWA to have a south-southwesterly
flow aloft through the afternoon. By the evening hours, models show
the CWA`s upper air flow turning more southwesterly with the axis of
the trough staying just to the west of the CWA. Another evening
shortwave disturbance is seen passing through the flow over the CWA.
At the surface, a cold front looks to pass through the CWA beginning
in the morning and going through the day. This frontal passage looks
to be key when dealing with precipitation chances and thus severe
weather potential for tomorrow. The latest CAM runs appear to show
the front making its way through the CWA before peak heating
allowing for late afternoon/evening showers and storms to develop in
the far eastern portions that move eastward out of CWA into central
KS. However if the cold front moves slower than expected, these
showers and storms can develop farther westward allowing for a
larger threat area-wise for the CWA. When looking at model
convective parameters, large to very large hail looks to be possible
with storms developing on Tuesday evening due to better shear values
along with strong wind gusts and a low chance for a brief tornado.
The latest SPC Day 2 outlook shows a marginal to slight risk for
areas along and east of the CO border, but this could change if
timing for the front stays the same. Current QPF values look to be
similar to those on Monday though the higher totals are seen in the
far eastern portions. Latest model soundings show quicker Bunkers
left and right motions, so flash flooding may not be an issue on
Tuesday with fast moving storms. Daytime highs for Tuesday are
forecast to be in the lower 70s to lower 80s followed by overnight
lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
On Wednesday, forecast guidance shows the axis of the trough passing
over the CWA turning flow aloft from west-southwesterly during the
day to more north-northwesterly during the evening hours. At the
surface, models show a surface high moving into the CWA in the
afternoon allowing for slower winds compared to the previous days
along with dry conditions expected throughout the day with a drier
airmass moving into the region. Wednesday`s daytime highs expect to
be in the middle 60s to middle 70s while overnight lows look to
range between the lower to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Little change in the long range forecast with CWA remaining under
strong northwesterly flow aloft, with medium range models coming
into a bit better agreement with respect to the overall pattern.
One noticeable change is some better agreement with respect to
low amplitude short wave trough moving through the flow and
interacting with mid level frontal zone. While confidence not
great, have seen some indication of this system the past few runs
and think it warrants at least a small mention of light rain.
Confidence in a frost, localized hard freeze has increased as
models seem rather locked in that strong sfc high settles over the
region Saturday morning. Not only is the airmass of Canadian
origin, but conditions appear to be optimal for radiational
cooling Friday night and Saturday morning. While some localized
frost may occur Thursday and Friday morning, Saturday appears to
be the best chance for widespread frost occurring across much of
the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 421 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Mainly VFR conditions are expected for both terminals. There will
be VCTS potential from 03z-09z Tuesday. For now no lowering in
conditions and will await until storms get closer to adjust
forecast.
Winds for KGLD, south 15-30kts w/ gusts to 40kts through 16z
Tuesday, then veering southwest 15-25kts. By 21z, northwest
10-20kts. LLWS 07z-16z Tuesday 190@45kts.
Winds for KMCK, south-southwest 15-25kts w/ gusts to 35kts
through 22z, then west-northwest 10-15kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Water vapor imagery currently shows a pronounced upper trough
extending from the Northern Rockies down into the Central Great
Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging extends through the Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, cold front extends from eastern ND down
into western Nebraska with a surface high centered over the Ohio
Valley.
Upper trough will track east/northeast tonight into Tue morning
and by the afternoon hours will be moving out across the High
Plains. At the same time a dryline/cold front will also move out
into the High Plains and will be the focus for storm development
Tue afternoon/early evening. One of the challenging aspects of
this forecast is whether we see convection developing out ahead
of the dryline/front due to strong 850mb theta-e advection. In
addition western half of forecast area will be under the right
entrance region of a strong upper jet. A few of the CAMS are
developing sct activity in the warm sector while a few are not.
The NAM has the dryline quite a bit further west compared to the
GFS by late Tue afternoon. The RAP looks to be a good middle
ground with the dryline just east of Highway 283 and intersecting
a cold front over northern KS. So as far as daytime convection
along the dryline/cold front, Russell and Barton counties would
have the best chance with some lower end warm advection activity
possible along and west of I-135. Any storms that form along
dryline/cold front will have a good chance to produce severe hail
given sufficient instability and around 45-50kts of effective
shear.
Front will be on the move Tue night into Wed morning as the vort
lobe lifts off into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
storms should then start to overspread more of the forecast area
as better upper dynamics continue to slide east. How far south
the front makes it Wed will likely depend on how much convection
we get Tue night into Wed morning, but current thinking is that
locations southeast of the KS Turnpike will keep the higher pops
for Wed into Wed evening, which will be closer to the front and
850mb moisture transport.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
By 12z Thu, there is good model agreement in a more potent piece
of energy sinking south across the Northern Plains and into the
Western Great Lakes region by Thu night. A secondary vort lobe
will then dive south out of Saskatchewan and will reinforce the
upper trough across the Mississippi Valley by early Fri morning.
This feature will finally pull down some Fall-like temps across
the Plains with the cold front moving through Thu night. For Fri,
we are looking for highs in the 60s! Took a quick look and it
appears we haven`t had below normal highs in Wichita since the
middle of September. Strong surface high will remain planted over
the Plains through Sat, providing plenty of sunshine and below
normal temps. Will start to see some moderation for Sunday as
surface high shifts east, allowing some return flow and slightly
warmer temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
VFR conditions are expected for the first 12 to 18 hours with main
concern being south winds becoming gusty to 30 kts for the daytime
hours on Tue. As tue afternoon progresses, scattered SHRA/TSRA is
expected to move towards central KS, possibly impacting the KRSL and
KGBD taf locations. So will go with a VCTS for the chance. By the
late afternoon, confidence is increasing that SHRA/TSRA will move
into central KS, potentially leading to some MVFR vsbys and
prevailing SHRA and VCTS.
Ketcham
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Very high fire danger is expected over central and south central
KS on Tue.
Strong south winds are anticipated Tue afternoon which will
elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category. We
are looking at south winds in the 20 to 25 mph range with gusts
30 to 35 mph. The higher end of this range will be for areas along
and west of I-135. Afternoon RH values will generally be in the
40-50% range with the lowest values over the Flint Hills.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 67 87 61 78 / 10 30 60 30
Hutchinson 67 86 59 75 / 10 40 70 20
Newton 67 86 61 77 / 10 30 60 20
ElDorado 66 86 62 79 / 0 20 70 40
Winfield-KWLD 66 87 63 81 / 10 20 70 50
Russell 67 82 53 73 / 20 70 70 10
Great Bend 66 82 54 72 / 20 70 70 10
Salina 68 85 57 76 / 10 50 70 10
McPherson 67 85 59 74 / 10 40 70 20
Coffeyville 64 85 65 80 / 0 10 60 70
Chanute 64 85 64 79 / 0 10 60 60
Iola 63 86 64 78 / 0 10 60 50
Parsons-KPPF 64 85 65 80 / 0 10 60 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...RBL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Key Messages:
- Severe weather is possible across western Nebraska tonight and
Tuesday. The primary threat tonight is damaging wind gusts.
Severe weather is possible during the day Tuesday affecting swrn
and ncntl Nebraska. Significant hail (2 inches or greater) and
wind damage are the concern.
- The models continue to predict the first freeze Friday and
Saturday mornings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
The rain forecast tonight leans on the aggressive RAP and
HRRR solutions which carry the expected shower and thunderstorm
activity east through wrn Nebraska overnight vs some models, like
the NAMnest which decay the convection west of highway 83 leaving
swrn Nebraska dry.
The models show storms forming across the ern Colorado plains this
afternoon which will be steered north northeast into the Panhandle.
Arrival time, according to the HRRR and RAP models is 23z-00z. These
storms are forming ahead of a strong Pacific cold front located
farther west.
The Pacific cold front is the basis for thunderstorm chances
throughout wrn Nebraska tonight while the storms forming on the
Plains are the basis for the SPC slight severe weather risk this
evening. Both systems will be capable of thunderstorms producing
gusty winds with severe gusts most likely this evening, generally
west of highway 83.
Lapse rates Tuesday morning will become steep with the arrival of
cold air aloft and falling heights. The forecast leans on the HRRR
predicting storms redeveloping along and east of highway 83 from
late morning through late afternoon. Steepening lapse rates, strong
shear and PWAT around 1.25 inches are the basis for the SPC
significant hail threat across scntl Nebraska.
The main concern Tuesday will the location of a sfc front which
could be as far west as North Platte at noon. The front would likely
be the focus for the strongest convection. Weaker, but still
marginally severe storms are possible to the west behind the front.
The strength and duration of the convection tonight could have a big
impact on the progress of the front and the location of the front
should become clear Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
The models are coming in a bit faster with the arrival of a
significant high pressure system from nrn Canada later this week.
Significant, because the models are predicting the first freeze
Friday and Saturday mornings. It is important to note the freezing
temperatures predicted Friday morning are occurring during a period
of cold air advection which would keep the atmosphere well mixed.
The better freeze chance could be the light winds and strong
radiational cooling predicted Saturday morning.
Shower chances are in place Thursday night but just the CMC
indicates scattered chances. The GFS is dry and the ECM is
isolated. POPs are limited to 30 percent for this forecast.
Otherwise, dry air will remain in place through next weekend with
little to no rain forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Wind and thunderstorms are the main aviation weather concerns for
western and north central Nebraska terminals through Tuesday
afternoon. Breezy south winds with gusts to 30 kts will continue
through at least sunset and gradually weaken overnight. In the
meantime, thunderstorm coverage will increase from iso/sct to more
widespread from west to east. Expect erratic gusty winds (up to 50
kts?) invof this activity and brief drops in visby and cigs. A
cold front will switch winds to westerly tomorrow, along with
spark new thunderstorms, generally from KVTN to KLBF and points
east.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
802 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 259 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an amplified mid-upper
level trough over the western U.S. with amplified ridging downstream
across the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region. A warm-
advection south-southwest flow between these features has pushed
afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s thus far,
warmest over the west half. Cirrus clouds drifting in from
convection over MN somewhat limited heating earlier this afternoon.
As of 3 pm, the high temperature thus far at NWS Marquette was 85F.
We would need to rise two more degrees to tie the record high for
the date of 87F, so we`ll see what happens but it`s getting pretty
late in the day now for additional heating to take place.
Regardless, suffice it to say we are about 20-25F above normal highs
for this time of the year and conditions should remain dry under
high pressure the rest of the day.
Tonight, will need to watch a weak shortwave now rounding the
backside of the ridge which is touching off some shower activity
over east-central MN. Some of the CAMS have some isolated convection
initiating over nw Lake Superior in the vicinity of Isle Royale this
evening and eventually building south into Ontonagon County through
the Keweenaw late evening into the overnight hours in an environment
of around 500 j/KG of MUCAPE. So, I did include a slight chc of
showers/t-storms over these areas tonight. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions elsewhere. With the warm airmass in place and a southwest
gradient wind to keep the low-levels somewhat mixed, especially
across the northern tier of the U.P., min temps are going to stay
quite mild tonight with readings ranging from the upper 50s over the
interior central and east and well into the 60s for downsloping
locations along Lake Superior.
One other side note here at NWS Marquette, if we can stay 66F or
warmer through midnight standard time tonight not only would we
would break the record high minimum temperature for October 2 but we
would also break the record high minimum for any calendar day in
October. The weather records at our office date back to 1961.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a
ridge across the eastern half of the U.S. 12z Tue. The trough moves
into the northern plains 00z Wed with the trough axis moving into
the upper Great Lakes 00z Thu. Trough digs into the Great Lakes 00z
Fri. Dry and warm weather will continue through Tue night before
front gets close enough by for pops on Wed. Could be some record
highs on Tue and possibly even Wed depending on when clouds and pops
move in. Would not be surprised to see a delay in movement of pops
on Wed and most of day turns out to be dry and still warm as trough
digs to the west and is going up against a strong ridge. Usually
when this happens, pops move in later than what we forecast and this
scenario does seem likely.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the
western U.S. and a deep trough across the central U.S. with a ridge
off the east coast 12z Fri. The trough axis moves to the east over
the lower Great Lakes 12z Sat and into the eastern U.S. 12z Sun as
the ridge moves into the Rockies. The upper pattern then changes
little for Mon. It will be showery with below normal temperatures
warming through the period with lake effect showers as cold air
moves across the warmer Great Lakes waters.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 802 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with dry air over the
area. The only threat will be possible LLWS at IWD this evening
into tonight.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 321 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
A prolonged period of 30 knot winds will be the main story for this
forecast. South winds will continue less than 20 knots through Tue
before increasing to 30 knots Tue night into Wed where there could
be some gale force gusts from the southwest. Southwest winds will
continue on Thu to 30 knots when a cold front moves through and
winds continue from the west and then northwest. NW to N winds to 30
knots will continue into Sat. There could be some gale force gusts
to 35 knots at times Thu into Sat. Confidence in a gale event is
still low though during this time period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2023
Record high maximum temperatures at the NWS Office in Negaunee:
Oct. 2: 87 (1992)
Oct. 3: 78 (2005)
Oct. 4: 76 (2007/2011)
Record high minimum temperatures at the NWS Office in Negaunee:
Oct. 2: 60 (2005)
Oct. 3: 65 (2005)
Oct. 4: 60 (2005)
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07
CLIMATE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1051 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain near the region through mid week.
High pressure moves north and east of the region Wednesday night
through Thursday. The high will give way to a frontal system
Friday into Saturday night, with a cold front passage late
Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds to the south
Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Updated for current conditions and short term trends. Slight
adjustments with local temps and dew points for the most part
over the next several hours, otherwise fx remains on track.
Previous discussion follows.
The region will remain on the eastern side of an upper level
ridge which will not exhibit much changes in geopotential
height. At the surface, the center of high pressure will get
within closer proximity to the region. The pressure gradient
will be weak allowing for winds to diminish. Subsidence from the
ridging will lead to mainly clear sky conditions.
With HRRR overestimating the amount of smoke in the area, the
forecast does not have any mention of haze through tonight.
Blended in some BC MOS guidance with the cooler MET guidance
overnight to better account for local variance in temps based on
radiational type set up. Usually like to take the coolest of
MOS with high pressure moving overhead, as this sets up optimal
radiational cooling conditions with clear sky conditions and
calm winds. The MET guidance conveys a more vast range of lows
to better depict the range of temperatures from mid to upper
40s in Pine Barrens of LI and interior valleys to mainly lower
60s within the NYC Metro.
Also, expecting temperatures to fall right to the dewpoint in
quite a few locations late tonight into early Tuesday morning,
allowing for low level saturation. Patchy radiational fog is
expected, especially in outlying and river valley locations.
While NAM BUFKIT sounding profiles seems to be over-forecasting
the amount of moisture, there are hints of this fog development
as well within the RAP BUFKIT sounding profiles.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level ridge continues to move in with its axis
approaching closer for Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure
will remain near but become centered more to the south of the
region. Models indicate some daytime trough development within
the forecast region. Models also convey 850mb temperatures
increasing a few degrees with values mainly between 16 and 18
degrees C.
Went on the higher side of forecast guidance, and chose the ECS
as well as MAV and MET guidance with some minor adjustments
upward. Surface westerly flow component will also allow for
relatively higher temperatures along the coast and Twin Forks.
Upper 70s to lower 80s is the range of forecast highs.
The westerly flow and ridging will allow for mostly sunny
conditions overall for Tuesday with any fog in the morning
burning off relatively quickly.
For Tuesday night, lows are forecast to be several degrees
warmer than lows the previous night. Lows forecast range from
the lower 50s to upper 60s. Dewpoints trending a few degrees
higher for Tuesday night as well. Forecast again has patchy
radiational fog as temperatures reach near the dewpoint
especially for interior and outlying locations.
For Wednesday, surface high pressure slides just east of the
area late in the day, allowing for more southerly winds to
develop. Winds are forecast to remain light. High temperatures
expected to be pretty similar to the previous day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A high amplitude ridge will be moving into the western North
Atlantic Ocean Wednesday night as the surface high moves east of
the New England coast and Canadian Maritimes. Heights begin to
lower after 18Z Thursday as a deep trough moves through the
central US. An upper low closes off late Friday as the upper
trough become slightly negative. This will slow the eastward
progression of a cold front, which is expected late Saturday
into Saturday night. A warm, and increasingly humid, airmass
will remain in place Thursday and Friday, with temperatures
averaging around 5 degrees above normal levels. Precipitable
water values increase steadily late Thursday into Friday night,
reaching a peak around 1.5 inches. There remains a chance that a
widespread one inch rainfall occurs late Friday into Saturday
night. The closed upper low may linger across southeastern
Canada into the northeast, with the surface low to the northeast
of the region, into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as high pressure settles over the area during the TAF period.
Some outlying terminals may have a period of patchy fog with
possible MVFR visibilities after 6z, but confidence of MVFR fog
occurrence remains low to include in TAFs at this time.
Light and variable winds overnight. By the late morning the
winds become W to NW with speeds remaining under 10 kt. Sea
breeze development takes place in the afternoon for coastal
terminals from 18 to 21z, as the winds become more SW to S.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Cannot completely rule out some patchy fog at KJFK terminal
towards the start of the morning push, but confidence remains
too low to include in the TAF at this time. Timing of potential
wind shift due to coastal sea breezes may be off by a couple of
hours on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 0Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night through Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...MVFR or lower conds possible with an increasing chance of
light showers.
Saturday...Mainly MVFR or lower with showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions on the waters are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds through Wednesday with high pressure remaining in
control. The pressure gradient will remain relatively weak.
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters
Wednesday night through Friday. With an increasing southeasterly
flow ahead of a cold front during Friday ocean seas build to around
5 feet by Friday night. Winds and gusts increase with the cold
front Saturday into Saturday night, and ocean gusts may reach 25
kt behind the front Saturday night. Ocean seas will build
Saturday into Saturday night as long period swells from distant
Tropical Storm Philippe move into the waters. Refer to the
National Hurricane Center, www.nhc.noaa.gov for official
forecasts on Tropical Storm Philippe.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected through Thursday with no hydrologic
problems expected.
At this time, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected
with rainfall Friday into Saturday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are slowly lowering, and with light and variable
winds tonight, becoming light westerly Tuesday, significant tidal
departures are not expected, with all areas falling below the minor
coastal flood benchmarks for the high tide cycles Tuesday morning
into the afternoon.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out
of service for unrepresentative data (water levels about 3 ft
too high). The gauge is being looked into by our partners at the
USGS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
647 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place over the eastern United States
through mid-week. This high will weaken Thursday and Friday, before
a cold front approaches from the west early Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...
High pressure remains situated over the upper Ohio valley. Afternoon
surface observations were showing northeasterly winds and
temperatures in the lower 80s in most locales. Winds will die down
again tonight under clear skies, promoting lows once again in the
mid to upper 50s. Similar to last night, shallow ground fog is
possible across portions of central NC. It is difficult to pinpoint
where it may form, but likely near bodies or water and low-lying
areas where lows dip into the low to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...
The upper ridge over the Mid-Mississippi valley will slide south
toward the northwest Gulf. Meanwhile, another mid-level ridge will
settle over the Mid-Atlantic. A mid-level shortwave off the SE coast
will promote light easterly flow aloft. At the surface, high
pressure extending down into the central and southern Appalachians
will drift offshore of Delmarva Tue night. This pattern will favor a
NE flow becoming more easterly during the day/night. Model soundings
and H925 flow shows deeper moisture in the boundary layer, which
should allow for more afternoon stratocumulus, especially across the
Piedmont. Low-level thicknesses are about the same or perhaps a
meter or two lower, allowing highs to be in the upper 70s to lower
80s.
The wildfire smoke visible on satellite along the Outer Banks is
forecast by the HRRR to drift inland Tue night with the easterly
flow. Most of this haze should be above the surface but it could
make for a beautiful, orange sunset. Lows should be in the mid to
upper 50s with lower 50s in outlying areas under clear skies and
light winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 318 PM Monday...
Strong mid/upper level ridging over the Mid-Atlantic region for
Wednesday and Thursday before a deepening trough associated with a
cold front moves into the region Friday.
Wednesday and Thursday will be dry as surface high pressure extends
south into the Carolina’s. Ahead of the approaching cold front on
Friday, a slight chance of showers is possible in the afternoon and
into the overnight hours. There is uncertainty being so far into the
forecast, with models uncertain how much forcing there will be after
the front comes past the Appalachian mountains. The latest model
data shows weak forcing moving across the region, which would result
in light showers and lower total rainfall amounts. Therefore,
limiting PoPs to only a slight chance late Friday afternoon/evening.
The cold front will exit the area by Saturday filtering in a cool,
dry Canadian airmass for the rest of the weekend and early next
week.
Temperatures will start off above normal for the long term with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low
60s. As the cold front approaches Friday and cloud coverage
increases temps will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with lows in the
mid to upper 50s. As the front exits Saturday, highs will still
reach low 70s at most places, but strong NWerly flow will help
temperature get down in the the 40s Saturday night. Coldest day of
the forecast will be Sunday, with highs in the mid 60s NW to upper
60s SE, and lows in the low 40s NW to mid 40s SE. Similar
temperatures on Monday but a tad warmers as high pressure weakens.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 647 PM Monday...
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the most part through
the 24 hour TAF period. However, similar to this morning, shallow
fog will again be possible tonight/early Tuesday at KRWI. Otherwise,
light nely sfc flow tonight will turn more ely through tomorrow
afternoon but remain light. Additionally, sct stratocu between 3 to
5 kft AGL are still likely to develop tomorrow afternoon which could
produce a brief period of MVFR CIGs at GSO/INT.
Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to dominate through much of the
work week, although morning fog/stratus will be possible Tue-Thu
mornings, mainly across the eastern TAF sites (RDU/FAY/RWI). Some
offshore wildfire smoke may produce isolated haze Wed morning. An
approaching frontal system could bring showers late Fri or Sat but
sub-VFR conditions are currently not anticipated.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Luchetti/Kren
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
920 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Local observations and satellite imagery show a large plume of
haze and lofted smoke moving in from the east. This will likely
continue to spread eastward through the area during the overnight
hours. However, observations indicate this isn`t causing much
issues with visibility with most spots reporting between 5 and 7
statute miles. Thus, given this haze and the HRRR near-surface
smoke indicating this will spread eastward, have added a mention
of haze for tonight. This should lift with daytime mixing during
the morning hours on Tuesday. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Mid to upper level ridging prevails near the MS Valley with the
region along the southern periphery of surface high pressure
centered over the Mid-Atlantic. This will promote deep layer
northeasterly flow within a moderate easterly pressure gradient
through Tuesday, with a similar atmospheric setup leading to a
near persistence forecast. The main change on Tuesday will be
a tendency for dew points to decrease lower than today from
the late morning into the evening hours, especially northwest
of the FL Big Bend, thanks to a slightly drier boundary layer.
In fact, dew points are forecast to bottom out around 50F to
the northwest of an ABY-DHN-DFK line. Model soundings also
indicate a similar low-level thermal profile, so highs again
will be in the mid-80s across much of the region. With winds
around 15 kts within the mixed-layer, gusts of 15 to 20 mph
can be expected again out of the East-Northeast. While the
rip current risk is expected to decrease in Walton County on
Tuesday morning, a high risk of rip currents is expected to
continue for the Franklin and Gulf County South facing beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Persistent ridging over the area will continue
through the short term period as a large longwave trough slowly
traverses over the western US. At the surface, high pressure will
also remain in place through the period with east-northeast winds at
the surface. The tranquil pattern will also continue with no PoP`s
in the forecast inland and over our waters. Maximum temperatures
will reach the upper 80s areawide with overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s, perhaps dropping into the upper 50s in our northernmost AL
and GA counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
The upper ridge will gradually erode Thursday through
Thursday evening as the aforementioned upper trough slowly traverses
toward the eastern US. At the surface, a diffuse cold front will
move in from the NW through Saturday, though weak moisture return
and lack of forcing will suppress storms from forming ahead. Post
frontal, high temperatures areawide will likely drop to the 70s with
dewpoints dropping into the low 50s, possibly dropping into the 40s
which would result in quite a pleasant weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals throughout the
forecast period. Main concern is gusty winds up to 20kts
late tomorrow morning into the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Moderate daytime and strong evening breezes will continue
through Thursday as a large surface high pressure remains seated
over the forecast area with a tight pressure gradient keeping winds
elevated. Additionally, seas will remain elevated with heights
ranging from 5-6ft west of the Ochlocknee River. A small craft
advisory remains in effect for our waters through Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will gradually become gentle as the pressure gradient broadens
Thursday and Friday. For the aforementioned period, winds will
remain N-NE before a gradual shift to more northerly and
occasionally NW`erly as a weak front will pass through the area
Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
A dry pattern remains in place through much of the week. In
particular, Relative Humidity will be lowest again on Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons, when values are forecast to range from
the mid-20s to mid-30s, especially in Southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle. This is the area of greatest concern, as it
coincides with the most pronounced drought conditions. Also,
east-northeast wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are likely both days
from the late morning into the evening, along with elevated
dispersions. Fire weather concerns are likely to persist much
of the week, although winds are expected to decrease and the
Relative Humidity values will increase by Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
There are no hydro concerns at this time with minimal
rainfall expected over the next seven days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 87 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 84 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 85 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 88 65 87 67 / 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 84 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ108.
High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Worster