Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/30/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
829 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Overall the forecast is doing fine. About the only changes wrought
so far has been keeping pops a bit longer in the far east CWA
where the nocturnal LLJ/WAA has supported additional isold
convection this evening. Once the LLJ shifts further east, so
should the storms. Lows look fine.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Key Messages:
* Areas of fog possible early Saturday morning.
* Above normal temperatures continue.
As shown by the HRRR, we continue to see redevelopment of showers
and thunderstorms across east central SD, affecting the far
southeast CWA. Surface boundary is splayed out down in that area,
with little movement expected overnight. Some of this activity could
persist beyond 00Z like the HRRR suggests. CAPE values drop off
quite a bit moving northward across the southeast CWA, but shear
values are still fairly impressive. So, severe threat still seems to
exist down in that corner of the CWA.
Models indicating fog potential overnight, even some lower CIGs
possible as well. Based on visibility output from various models,
they seem to be hitting the Coteau/Glacial Lakes area the hardest,
likely due to moist upslope flow with the east-northeast breezes
overnight.
On Saturday, quiet conditions are expected with increasing east to
southeast winds. Given the warm 850mb temps aloft around +17C/+18C,
expecting another day of above normal temperatures. Easterly flow
not overly supportive of higher percentile temps, but should still
see highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s nonetheless. Also
worth noting is a return to higher dewpoints as models indicate
readings in the 60s once again.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
An upper level ridge continues to dominate the first portion of the
long term period. Starting Tuesday, a cold front along with a low
pressure trough makes its way across the region. This is expected to
bring rain to most of the CWA. The area remains in the upper level
trough pattern through the end of the period.
As mentioned above, we are expecting some widespread rain Tuesday
into Wednesday. Showers could start as early as Tuesday morning
(around 30%) for areas west river, but the greatest chance overall
looks to be Tuesday evening for areas east of the Missouri River
(around 50-60% chance). As for amounts, it doesn`t look too likely
that we will get up to a half an inch. NBM probabilities for more
than a quarter of an inch max out around 40% for areas east of the
Leola hills. There is a more widespread area for 30-50% chance of
more than a tenth of an inch, covering most of our area.
Temperatures Sunday are expected to be as much as 20 degrees above
normal. However, with the cold front on Tuesday, temperatures for
the latter half of the week will trend down to around normal for
this time of year. Winds are expected to be especially gusty on
Sunday with gusts of 45 mph or more in central SD and areas est of
the Missouri River.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are forecast for the first half of the TAF period.
Late tonight into Saturday morning, FG/BR and MVFR/IFR CIGs are
forecast across the region.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
934 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will bring some periods
of light rain and drizzle to the Catskills and Poconos
tonight. Dry weather returns on Saturday, and is expected to
last into at least Thursday, as a large ridge of high pressure
moves overhead. There will be a significant warming trend, with
well above average temperatures Sunday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
930 pm update...
Just minor adjustments. Very few showers and all light. Clouds
and showers will be slow to leave in Pike and Sullivan Counties
late tonight and Saturday morning.
630 pm update...
Light showers have developed over the southeast in the western
Catskills and Wayne/Pike Counties in PA. Rainfall amounts will
be under a quarter of an inch so the flood threat is almost
zero. With instability waning removed the chance of thunder.
Further west showers will be scarce so lowered pops.
310 PM Update...
Upper level low continues to slowly move eastward across
Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening. The best deep moisture
advection is east of the low, mainly just east of our forecast
area across NYC, Hudson Valley and into New England. The latest
mid level water vapor shows this nicely, with only modest
amounts of mid level moisture back across our region under the
low. Visible satellite shows mostly cloudy skies prevailing
over the region, with KBGM radar only showing periodic light
rain and drizzle over our area in the easterly flow regime. Left
in a slight chance for an isolated pop up t`storm into the
evening hours, but instability is really lacking, with the
latest meso- analysis only showing pockets of 100-250 J/kg and
lifted indices mainly at 0 to +2 over the region. PWATs are not
that impressive over our forecast area, ranging from 1.2 to 1.3
inches and dew points are in the mid-50s to around 60. The
latest 18z HRRR does still try to develop a band of rain over
Pike and Sullivan counties this evening, but do not think the
potential for heavy or excessive rainfall and flooding is high
enough to keep the flood watch going; therefore the flood watch
for Pike and Sullivan counties has been cancelled with this
update. If this rain band does develop (which some of the other
CAMs are much less impressive than the HRRR) there could still
be some modest rainfall totals between 0.5 to 1 inch in and
around these two counties...but even this would not be enough
for flooding concerns.
The mid/upper level low spins off the East coast tonight,
turning the flow more northeasterly in our area...this will keep
a few showers and drizzle around, with some patchy fog also
possible in the Central Southern Tier region. Otherwise it will
be cool and mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s.
Clouds, with scattered showers and patchy drizzle linger over
the Poconos, Catskills and parts of the Susquehanna region into
Saturday morning. It should dry out with partial clearing from
north to south by late morning. In the afternoon clouds scatter
out for partly to mostly sunny conditions. It will be mild with
highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s in most locations. Northeast
winds continue, under 10 mph.
High pressure settles in for Saturday night, with clear
conditions, light north winds and cool temperatures. There will
likely be valley fog forming as overnight lows dip down into
the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...
A classic Omega Block is setting up across the US through the
weekend and into next week, with a trough over the western US
and western Atlantic and a strong ridge over the east-central
US. Our area will be influenced by the ridge, with NNE flow
across the area through the period. Temperatures will climb into
the mid to upper 70s through the period, with overnight lows
in the low to mid 50s. Conditions will be mostly clear and dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
220 PM Update...
The ridge will dominate the weather pattern as it slides
eastward through the week. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
are expected with a degree or two uptick each day of the week
thanks to WAA from the ridge. Overnight lows will be in the 50s
through the week. Enjoy this last grasp of warm weather as
guidance is hinting at the first real fall temperatures next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM Update
Most sites in CNY are VFR now. General trend for most will be
to fall to MVFR/IFR late tonight then return to VFR Saturday
afternoon.
RME/SYR will stay VFR cigs but vsbys drop to MVFR from 6 to
13z.
ITH/ELM/BGM will fall to MVFR vsby and cig by 06z. ELM at times
will have IFR near airport mins 8 to 12z. ITH will drop to IFR
vsbys about the same time. BGM will have at times IFR cig/vsby
also 8 to 12z but not expected to be near airport mins. Return
to VFR midday Saturday.
AVP has MVFR fuel alternate cigs now which will last until mid
day Saturday. VFR around 21z. Late tonight cigs could drop to
IFR at times from 7 to 11z.
Winds are 5 kts or less from the northeast and east into
Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon the wind shifts to
northerly at around 5 kts.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Restrictions due
to valley fog each morning most likely at ELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MJM/TAC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...TAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1103 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of New England will bring continued rain to
southern New England into Saturday. High pressure builds into the
region Sunday through much of the upcoming week, resulting in dry
weather with a warming trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Thought the last few runs of the HRRR reflected what was
observed on regional radars well. Made it the basis for
tweaking the timing of rainfall overnight. Minor tweaks to
temperatures. Otherwise, expecting rain to continue at times
across most of southern New England overnight, although the
focus should shift more towards SE MA.
Based on MRMS streamflows and some gauges on small rivers and
streams, extended the Flood Warning across Hartford and extreme
southern Hampden Counties. Additional rainfall overnight may
delay these waterways from returning to their banks. River Flood
Warnings continue along the Farmington River at both Unionville
and Simsbury.
715 PM Update:
Main area of heavier rain continues to affect much of CT and
western/central MA this evening. It`s important to note that
presentation on radar looks much more impressive than what`s
actually falling due to bright banding, which is also affecting
radar estimates from KBOX. Hourly rainfall rates are more in the
0.10-0.30" range per ASOS and mesonet obs.
That said, another slug of heavier rain over southern CT was
lifting north and will bring periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall to these same areas tonight. This area is associated
with low level jet and inverted trough which will eventually
shift offshore overnight as low pressure heads out to sea, so we
expect this area of rain to gradually diminish and break up a
bit later tonight, much like what is depicted by HRRR.
Elsewhere, lighter rains are expected tonight. We`re even seeing
some drier air at lower levels work its way down through NH into
NE MA, and Boston, where winds have backed to N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...
The mid/upper low sets up south of New Eng with the comma
head/trowal bringing periods of rain to SNE in the morning,
especially across RI and SE MA where the rain may be heavy at times
near the axis of the low level jet. Still some uncertainty on the
strength and location of the low level jet which will determine the
extent of heavy rainfall and whether it remains to the south or gets
into SE New Eng. Rain will be ending in the interior and northern MA
late morning and especially afternoon as pronounced mid level drying
moves in from the N. However, the rain will continue for much of the
day closer to the south coast. Gusty NE winds expected over
Cape/Islands. Highs mostly 60-65, perhaps some upper 60s CT valley
in northern MA if some sun can develop in the afternoon.
Saturday night...
Mid level low slowly moves offshore as it drifts SE with gradual
improving conditions. Clearing will develop in western New Eng and
gradually push to the SE. However, showers could linger in SE New
Eng for the first half of the night, especially Cape/Islands. Lows
mid/upper 40s interior to low to mid 50s SE New Eng.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:
* Prolonged stretch of dry weather with a warming trend.
Confidence continues to increase on having several days of dry
weather next week along with a warming trend. Ensembles are in very
good agreement that upper trough moves offshore Sunday and allows
ridging to build across eastern third of country much of next week.
From there, although there are timing differences, ensembles agree
in digging trough into northern Plains or Tennessee Valley by the
end of the week. This will bring increasing chances for showers
Friday as cold front approaches from Great Lakes, but if trough ends
up slowing down, dry weather could last through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Low confidence, mainly due to uncertainty of lower ceilings.
Should see widespread IFR/MVFR in rain and fog tonight as
heaviest rain in CT/western MA gradually shifts to south coast
overnight and begins to diminish. Lower ceilings have had a
difficult time making it into parts of NE MA, including BOS, but
expectation is for ceilings to lower to MVFR later tonight.
Slow improvement Sat from NW to SE late morning through the
afternoon as rain gradually ends. But MVFR persisting through
the day across eastern MA/RI where rain is expected to continue.
NE winds 10-15 kt, with gusts to 25 kt Cape/Islands.
Mainly VFR in the interior, but MVFR cigs across eastern MA Sat
night and showers may linger across Cape/Islands. N winds gusts
to 25 kt over ACK.
KBOS Terminal...Low confidence in TAF. Tough call on when
ceilings will lower tonight and TAF may be too fast in bringing
them in. Kept ceilings in lower end of MVFR but lowering to IFR
is not out of the question.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF, mainly due to
timing of improving conditions on Sat.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Persistent NE winds through Sat night. Low level jet will bring
increasing winds late tonight into Sat night as low pres sets up
south of the 40N/70W benchmark. Gusts 25-30 kt over the southern
waters, but gusts to 20 kt over NE MA waters. SCA will continue.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ232>234-250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...Belk/KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/JWD
MARINE...KJC/JWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1045 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will continue to impact Rutland and Windsor counties this
evening, before surface high pressure builds into the region on
Saturday. This will result in dry conditions and above normal
temperatures for most of next week. A few record high temperatures
are possible for midweek, before rain shower chances increase by
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1039 PM EDT Friday...Only minor changes were made with
light rain ongoing east of the Green Mountains. Main adjustment
was to linger slight chances of showers across northeastern
Vermont for the next few hours since radar returns have been
more persistent than expected. Still, QPF will not be heavy in
these showers with forcing continue to shift eastward. Best
chances of fog remain in northern New York with clouds beginning
to dissipate on IR imagery. There should be plenty of time for
raditional cooling to allow for fog formation in the St Lawrence
Valley. There are some pockets of breaks across northern
Vermont; these spot will likely have intermittent fog as cloud
layers shift over the next 3-6hrs with better chances of fog
just prior to sunrise if more clouds can dissipate.
Previous Discussion...The primary precipitation axis has
shifted eastward marginally with forcing decreasing east to west
across New Hampshire. The result has been for a decrease in
precipitation chances over Vermont over the next 6 hours. A few
showers are still occurring, but may not be reaching the ground
at this point. Further totals will therefore be very light and
less than 0.1". The rate at which clouds clear tonight will have
a large impact on fog chances and remains the biggest question
going forward. Models continue to promote clearing clouds after
midnight to 0600 local time from north to south. Best fog
chances remain over northern New York and far northern Vermont,
but could see more widespread fog for north-central Vermont if
clouds clear faster.
Previous Discussion...Upper air analysis shows closed 7h/5h
circulation over State College PA with deep southerly moisture
advection acrs eastern NY into southern New England. NYC area
has received 4 to 7 inches of rainfall today, but much less acrs
our cwa with Weston/Ludlow around 0.25 so far. A sharp north to
south moisture gradient prevails acrs our cwa per latest radar
and sfc obs and this continues to be the challenge tonight.
Based on latest HRRR thinking crnt activity wl suppress to the
south for awhile, before expanding northward again after 00z for
several hours. Highest likely/cat pops and qpf wl remain acrs
Rutland/Windsor Counties and mainly south of Route 4. It should
be noted the RAP is much further north this evening with deeper
moisture and potential qpf, but thinking measurable precip
should stay south of Interstate 89. Also, helping to enhance
llvl lift is east/southeast flow btwn sfc and 850mb, while light
it helps to squeeze out additional moisture along the higher
trrn of eastern VT, as light rain has just started at MPV. Next
question wl be fog potential this evening associated with the
clouds, but sfc dwpts are much higher than 24 hours ago.
Thinking highest confidence is portions of Northern NY,
including the SLV with secondary potential acrs the rain
saturated areas of southern/eastern VT. Temps with clouds hold
in the 50s with except some upper 40s SLK/NEK.
Saturday...mid/upper lvl ridge builds into northern NY/VT from
southern Canada, along with 1025mb high pres. Still some lingering
moisture btwn 850-500mb in the morning, which may result in some mid
lvl clouds, but thinking increasing amounts of sunshine is likely
during the aftn. Progged 925mb temps btwn 15-16C support highs well
into the 70s on Saturday, a solid 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Additional patchy fog is likely in climo favored areas on Sat night
as cross over values are reached under ideal radiational cooling
conditions. Light winds/clear skies, did trend slightly below
guidance with lows lower 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Friday...The latter half of the weekend will be dry,
though a weak shortwave rotating around the top of the upper ridge
will bring some increased cloud cover, especially in
northern/central areas. Otherwise, light winds and warmer-than-
normal temperatures will prevail. Highs will be in the lower to mid
70s, followed by overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Friday...Ridging will remain in place through much
of the work week, keeping the weather warm and dry. There`s growing
confidence that we`ll see above normal temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday; note that NBM indicates a 40 percent chance of exceeding
80F on Tuesday and 56 percent on Wednesday here at BTV, while MEX
MOS has 83F and 84F for those days. 925mb temperatures support this
idea as they`re progged to approach 21-22C. Record high temperatures
for Tue/Wed are in the low 80s in most of our climate locations, and
even staying close to the NBM, those will be threatened if not
broken. We`ll see cooler conditions and increasing precipitation
chances late in the week as an upper trough digs into the
Midwest and a cold front approaches from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...We continue to monitor fog associated with
IFR/LIFR conditions tonight and Saturday morning. Cloud cover
is expected to decrease across the forecast area throughout the
night, starting with the northern edge. Based on this, MSS and
EFK may have best chances to fog in tonight as these sites
experience radiational cooling, dropping temperatures to meet
dew points. Then, SLK and MPV are also likely to have IFR fog
for a period as clouds sink southward, especially after MPV got
some rain today. BTV, PBG, and RUT seem to be least likely to
have fog tonight, though some guidance is pointing at RUT for
lower vis and cig, perhaps to IFR level. Based on how thick and
low the clouds should remain for most of the night in southern
Vermont, chances remain relatively low for IFR in RUT. Winds
throughout the 24 hour TAF period will remain light and variable
with no real concern for wind shear, and after around 13Z
Saturday, VFR conditions prevail.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Taber
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Storm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
902 PM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the region overnight, then moves east
into Sunday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure tracks south of
the Gulf of Maine. A weak boundary approaches from the west on
Sunday and crosses Sunday night. High pressure builds in from
the west into mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:02 PM Update: The FA remains under the influence of ridging
both at the surface and aloft. The 00z Caribou sounding showed
the early evening development of an inversion just above the
surface that will strengthen tonight. Smoke is evident on
satellite pictures and was visible on web cameras early this
evening. The concentration of smoke aloft is higher across the
southern half of the area. There have been reports of smoke at
ground level, but the air quality index across the state ranges
from good to the lower end of moderate, so the smoke
concentration at ground level is not too bad at this time. The
smoke is not evident at ground level at the WFO as of 9 PM, but
it probably is at higher elevation sites. Also evident are high
level clouds streaming to the north and northeast ahead of an
area of low pressure that will be passing southeast of Long
Island overnight into Saturday. Many of the observations from
Houlton south are picking up on the smoke layer and not the
actual height of the clouds. Any rain associated with this
system remains south of the area overnight. Other than minor
tweaks to account for the current and expected conditions no
significant changes are planned at this time.
Previous discussion:
A large dome of high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates
through the period. Smoke and fog are the primary issues through
Saturday. The smoke is many days removed from fires in western
Canada and is now wrapped/trapped in the upper high circulation
over the region.
A closed upper low circulation over the Mid-Atlantic states that
has produced a lot of rain in southern New England will be
suppressed by the upper ridge through tomorrow and will actually
be forced southward on Saturday as upper ridging builds over
northern Maine. The low will be responsible for cirrus moving
through the area tonight, but those clouds will be out of the
area by daybreak tomorrow.
The smoke continues to befuddle ceilometers with readings
ranging from less than 4K feet to 20K feet. In reality, today`s
12Z RAOBS show no clouds at heights less than 20K ft and the
smoke layer has been mostly in a layer from 3 to 4k feet to
around 8K feet as evidenced by PIREPS. However, the smoke will
descend for the remainder of the day into tonight and will be
most noticeable in higher terrain towards the Katahdin and
Moosehead Lake regions tonight into Saturday morning.
For tonight, expect a repeat of the fog cycle. The only
mitigating factor will be increasing cirrus in the southern half
of the forecast area. Lows will be slightly warmer than the last
two nights as the air mass slowly modifies. The smoke did not
slow down fog formation last night and may have prolonged it
today.
The smoke will remain in the area tomorrow although it may thin
out in northern zones in the afternoon. HRRR projections seem to
have been a bit optimistic in reducing smoke concentrations in
the past day. Nonetheless, went with high temps a bit higher
than the readings that were reduced by the smoke today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure off the southern New England coast drifts slowly east
into the open Atlantic during Saturday night. Meanwhile, our area
remains under the influence of upper level ridging building eastward
from the Great Lakes region. This results in mainly clear weather
conditions Saturday night with patchy late night fog once again
expected. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 40s.
A weak cold front approaches from the north on Sunday and crosses
northern areas during the afternoon and then central and Downeast
areas later Sunday and Sunday night. Highs Sunday afternoon will
still climb into the low to mid 70s in a few spots under mainly
sunny skies.
Fair weather continues Sunday night and Monday with mainly clear to
partly cloudy skies expected. Lows Sunday night mainly in the upper
40s to lower 50s. Highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected heading through the
first full week of October. The potential is there for record
or near record high temperatures through mid week.
A strong upper level ridge will build across northern New England
Monday night through Thursday. This will bring the prospect of dry
and unseasonably warm weather to the region Tuesday through Thursday
of next week. Afternoon high temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s, which will be near the
record highs for the date.
The next chance for any showers will not be until later Friday with
the approach of a cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions have lowered to MVFR at KPQI and KHUL
in fog and will deteriorate later this evening and into the
overnight hours at all of the terminals. LIFR to VLIFR vis can
again be expected for all sites after midnight into early
Saturday morning. Following the pattern from recent days, VFR
conditions return mid to late Saturday morning for the remainder
of the day. Light and variable wind through Sat.
SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR through the period. The exception will be
late night and early morning patchy fog when conditions may
deteriorate to IFR/LIFR, mainly in the 06z thru 1z time frame.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Long period southerly swell around 2 to occasionally
3 feet continues. Light and variable winds will become NE
tonight into Saturday with gusts reaching 10 to 15 kt. Areas of
fog are again possible tonight.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
he middle of next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...CB/MCW/TWD
Marine...CB/MCW/TWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
812 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
There is the chance for some fog mainly along and north of I-70
but especially near the Tri-State border late tonight into
tomorrow morning. Winds are forecasted to be light from the north
to out of the east which is generally favorable for development.
The two uncertainties are in how the winds will vary overnight
with lower surface pressure over the area. The other uncertainty
is how much moisture will linger in the area. Currently dewpoints
are generally higher than what most guidance is showing which
would give a higher chance for fog. If the fog develops, it could
be dense at times likely around sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
the CWA having a west-southwesterly flow aloft with an upper air
trough over the Pacific Coast, a shortwave trough over the OK
Panhandle, and an upper air ridge over the Great Lakes region.
Current surface observations and satellite imagery show sunny skies
across the CWA with a front having made its way through the western
half of the CWA causing a northerly surface flow. Going through the
rest of the day, forecast models show a shortwave trough moving over
central OK in the evening with the overall trough/ridge pattern
continuing. At the surface, models show a surface low moving over
southeastern CO in the evening allowing for southerly surface winds
in the far eastern portions overnight with the remainder of the CWA
seeing a more easterly flow. Low precipitation chances are seen as
well with conditions looking to stay dry. Low temperatures for the
CWA look to be in the upper 40s to lower 60s range tonight.
On Saturday, models depict the CWA taking a more southerly aloft
through the day as the western trough digs more south while moving
onshore into the western CONUS. By the evening hours, an upper air
low starts to develop in the base of the trough over the CA/NV
border as the CWA`s upper air flow turning southwesterly. At the
surface, models continue to show a southerly surface flow allowing
for hot and dry conditions throughout the day. Some localized
blowing dust may be possible as well as near critical fire weather
conditions particularly for the western portions of the CWA. By the
evening hours, forecast models show winds gradually increasing due
to some pretty steep pressure rises along with some chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern quadrant of the CWA.
Current QPF values look to be under a tenth of an inch at most in
these locations. Daytime highs for Saturday expect to be in the
upper 80s to middle 90s range followed by overnight lows in the
middle 50s to the middle 60s.
For Sunday, models have the aforementioned low moving eastward
across NV while the CWA keeps a southwesterly flow aloft being
between the low to the west and an upper air ridge to the east. At
the surface, models have a surface low moving towards eastern
WY/western NE by the afternoon allowing for a pretty tight pressure
gradient across the CWA. This looks to potentially be the windiest
day of the term with models showing maximum wind gusts in some
portions of the CWA around or above 40 kts. With this, near critical
fire weather conditions are expected even with minimum RH values
above 30 percent. Blowing dust could also be possible though
conditions do not look to favor a wall of dust at this time. Latest
model runs do keep precipitation chances for Sunday well south of
CWA at this time. Daytime highs on Sunday are forecast to be between
the lower to upper 80s while the overnight lows are expected to be
in the middle 50s to middle 60s range.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Active weather is expected for the beginning of the period as large
trough over the four corners region gradually moves over the
region on Tuesday. Although models vary with specifics, general
consensus is that strong shortwave trough will move over the area,
with intensifying surface low over Nebraska. Could see a few
potential hazards in this scenario. First, given the instability
and shear profiles it is not out of the question that a round of
severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of cold front on Tuesday,
with potentially significant winds behind cold front as low begins
to occlude. Should we miss out on bulk of rain ahead of system,
that cold front passage could pose a threat for blowing dust and
associated hazards. That being said all threats are very
conditional on the exact evolution of the system and at this time
confidence is still low.
After Tuesday system passes, expect much more seasonable
temperatures to build into the area with highs in the 60s and 70s
in the later half of the week. Could potentially see first frost
in a few locations in the Wed to Thur night period, mainly in
western areas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 452 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
For KGLD & KMCK... For both terminals, VFR conditions are
forecasted. However, there is a chance for some fog near both
terminals. Currently, the more favored conditions for fog favor
counties along the Tri-State border but will need to watch how far
the fog can spread. Part of the uncertainty comes from the near
surface winds shifting in direction through the night and how much
moisture will linger in the area through the night hours. Another
low chance concern is LLWS. Some guidance is suggesting that
winds just above the surface could be strong enough to create a
speed difference of greater than 20 kts within the first few
hundred feet. However, those solutions currently overestimate the
winds as of this discussion so chances are currently low as they
seem to be outliers. Near the end of the period, near surface
winds should stabilize in direction from the south and pick up in
speed through the late morning to afternoon hours.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAK
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...KAK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Key Messages:
- Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday, Sunday, Monday across
much of western and north central Nebraska.
- Strong wind event likely for Sunday and Monday, with crosswinds
likely affecting travel on east-west roads.
- Increasingly active weather Monday through Tuesday night with
recurring rain and thunderstorm chances across the region.
A cold front was analyzed at 19Z from near Colby KS through Broken
Bow and O`Neill. Temperatures ranged from 68 at Gordon to 80 at
Broken Bow. Skies were mostly clear. Synoptically, an upper
trough extended south along the West Coast with southwest flow
aloft across the Desert Southwest across the Rockies into the
Northern and Central Plains. A disturbance was lifting northeast
across eastern SD into MN, where scattered showers and storms
continued.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Tonight into Saturday morning...the latest HRRR, RAP and
CONSShort support the development of fog across much of the
Sandhills tonight. The weak front will remain stationary to our
southeast overnight. A light and variable wind will veer to the
east and southeast, with fog and/or low stratus developing. Will
continue a mention of patchy fog. Visibility from 1-3 miles is
more likely with locally dense fog possible. The main timeframe
for impacts from the fog would be from 12Z-14Z. Stratus and fog
should quickly lift by 16Z.
Saturday afternoon and Saturday Night...Southwest flow aloft
will steepen as upper ridging builds across the Great Lakes and
Midwest and the upper trough and closed low deepens into western
portions of the Great BAsin. Southeast winds will increase to 10
to 20 mph. With increasing h85 temperatures, expect a very warm
day across the area with highs from 82 to 85 nctrl to 85 to 90
across the remainder of the area. A strengthening LLJ late in the
day thanks to lee cyclogenesis will lead to increasing winds
through the late day and overnight. A few of the CAMs support
isolated convection Saturday evening far eastern CO/wrn KS and
even up into southwest NE. Will keep out a mention attm. As
southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph persist overnight, this will keep
overnight lows mild with many locations hanging onto the 60s
which is 20 to 25 degrees above normal for lows.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Sunday into Monday...the upper flow across the area will amplify
and become south southwest as a strong upper jet rotates around
the southern periphery and downstream side of the H5 trough. this
will induce divergence aloft and a deepening surface low pressure
across north central CO into western SD. A tight surface pressure
gradient of 16mb will extend west to east across Nebraska. This
will lead to a very windy on Sunday. South winds will increase to
25-30KTs sustained in the afternoon with gusts to 33 to 43 KTs.
Thus, gusts of 40 to 45 mph can be expected. The potential for
gusts of 50 to 55 mph are even supported by the NBM 4.1 24 hr
probability of 10 meter winds greater than 48 kts. This would
suggest Cherry County back across the western Sandhills and far
southwest NE would have the higher probability (60 percent or
higher) of this occurring. This strong southerly flow will
promote much above normal temperatures as afternoon highs climb
into the mid to upper 80s. Fire weather concerns will exist
which will be covered in the fire weather discussion below.
There be low chances for showers or a few thunderstorms Sunday
night across the northwest Sandhills as a mid level disturbance
crosses eastern WY into wrn SD. Another mild night with lows in
the low to mid 60s central and eastern zones.
Another windy day Monday, with the strongest winds further east
as surface low pressure resides across the panhandle and western
Sandhills. Winds of 20 to 35 mph near and east of an Imperial
through Ainsworth line. Could see a few afternoon showers or
thunderstorms develop late in the day across the western
Sandhills as the upper trough approaches the High Plains.
Anomalous moisture will exist with PWATs exceeding the 90th
percentile, hovering around the 0.75-1.25" range.
Monday night through Wednesday...deterministic models are in
fairly good agreement with respect to timing of the main H5
trough axis. The peak period of upper-level dynamics in the form
of strongest PVA and height falls to occur Monday night into
the day on Tuesday. During this time, POPs will range as high as
40 to 60 percent. The potential for appreciable rainfall exists
with locally heavy rainfall possible. By Tuesday afternoon, a
cold will move into the area. This will lead to decreasing
moisture and a decrease in PoPs Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Highs on Tuesday cool to 65 to 75, and the 60s Wednesday as the
cooler airmass builds into the region.
Thursday and Friday...a deep upper trough will persist across the
Central U.S into the Great Lakes and Midwest. Deterministic
solutions begin to diverge considerably by this time with
differences in evolution of the h5 trough invof the Mississippi
Valley and potential of a strong northern stream system diving
across southern Canada. The current thinking is that the local
area will remain within moderately amplified northwesterly flow
aloft. This would favor at least near to slightly below normal
temperatures. The Thursday and Friday period is expected to be
dry. Frost is possible across at least the western Sandhills. No
strong signal for a freeze or hard freeze at this time. A
reinforcement of a colder Canadian airmass may arrive Friday night
into Saturday, upon which time a freeze could occur.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Passing high clouds early in the period will give way to low
stratus and fog affecting both terminals around sunrise on
Saturday. Greatest impacts are expected at VTN where a drop to IFR
and possibly LIFR for brief periods cannot be ruled out. Fog
development will focus across the Sandhills and north central
Nebraska but patchy river fog affecting LBF is also likely.
Thereafter, expect a quick return to VFR conditions with
southeasterly winds gusting around 20 knots. Stronger winds look
to arrive towards the end of the period and later forecasts may
include stronger gusts immediately prior to 01/00z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across all of
western Nebraska Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. The main concern
will be strong south winds, peaking Sunday at 35 to 45 mph. Red
Flag Warnings are not anticipated due to lack of critical humidity
or abrupt wind shifts but strong winds will lead to the rapid
spread and erratic behavior of any fire starts in receptive fuels.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
727 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...29/120 PM.
Much cooler weather is expected through the weekend with a chance
of light rain Saturday into Sunday as an unseasonably cold upper
low moves through the area. There will be plenty of clouds west of
the mountains through Sunday with only partial afternoon
clearing, mainly Sunday. A warming trend will begin Monday with
high temperatures rising to above normal levels by the middle of
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...29/151 PM.
An unseasonably cold upper low is moving into California today
and will be the primary weather maker this weekend for southern
California. The system has already had an effect, deepening the
marine layer to at least 4000 feet in the south and 1500-2000 feet
north of Pt Conception. Clouds are still well entrenched into the
valleys and lower coastal slopes this afternoon and any clearing
today south of Pt Conception will be minimal at best.
As the upper low over northern California continues to drop south
tonight into Saturday, the marine layer will deepen further, to as
high as 5000-6000 feet and drizzle and light rain chances will
increase. Hi res HRRR and SREF models show drizzle developing
later tonight across LA County, then spreading northwest into
eastern Ventura County early Saturday. Around that same time a
cold front will move south down the Central California Coast
bringing with it areas of light rain that will spread into Ventura
and LA Counties Saturday afternoon. Amounts initially will be
light, mostly a tenth of an inch or less. However, as the cold
front rounds Pt Conception and moves into LA County, increasing
instability aloft will mix with increasing upslope flow along the
south facing mountain slopes, especially in the eastern San
Gabriels, as well as PW`s increasing to around 1.2" to generate
some higher rain rates and possibly even an isolated thunderstorm.
Some of the recent HRRR runs have shown small areas of enhanced
rain rates in the eastern San Gabriels, as high as .8"/hr. While
this is likely an outlier, it does demonstrate the potential for
thunderstorms and some higher rain rates. These would mostly be in
the LA Mountains and adjacent coastal valleys with smaller
chances in the Ventura Mountains. In these more favorable areas,
especially the eastern San Gabriels, rain amounts between a half
and one inch are possible through Saturday night. Elsewhere mostly
a quarter inch or less.
Precip chances after Saturday afternoon drop off quite a bit as
strong westerly flow develops following the frontal passage. May
have some advisory level winds across the area Saturday afternoon
and evening, particularly coastal areas. A secondary upper low is
expected to drop into the area Sunday, though this one is weaker
and will have less moisture and instability to work with so precip
should be light and much less widespread with best chances in the
morning across LA County. Improving conditions are expected in
the afternoon.
Clearing skies and warmer temperatures are expected Monday as a
ridge of high pressure rapidly moves into the state.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...29/157 PM.
The ridge will continue to amplify next week. Expect significant
warming in most areas Tue with highs above normal in most areas
through Fri. NAEFS gradient forecasts still indicating a
likelihood some light offshore flow by Tuesday and lasting the
rest of the week and currently there`s about a 10% chance of
warmer valley areas reaching 100 Wed through Fri. At this time
chances for any bigger offshore Santa Ana conditions next week are
very low.
&&
.AVIATION...30/0221Z.
At 0112 at KLAX, the marine layer was 3800 feet deep, with an
inversion top at 4600 feet at 16 degrees Celsius.
Moderate confidence in desert TAFs, low to moderate confidence in
all others. Uncertainty due to height of cigs and rain chances
through the period. Cigs may bounce between categories with
variable cloud deck, though are largely expected to be MVFR.
There is a 30-40% chance of -RA from 06Z-12Z, and 40-60% chance of
-RA after 12Z. Cigs will be unlikely to clear tomorrow for all
sites except for the deserts and KSBA (which has a 20% chance of
clearing).
There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms throughout the entire
region after 18Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30-40% chance of
-RA from 06Z-12Z, and 40-60% chance of -RA after 12Z. There is a
30% chance of an east wind component of 5-7 kt from 10Z-17Z.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30-40 chance of -RA
from 06Z-12Z, and 40-60% chance of -RA after 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...29/142 PM.
A low pressure system will move over the southwest United States
on Saturday causing gusty west to northwest winds nearly
everywhere. Saturday SCA level winds are possible throughout the
entire waters.
Based on the latest guidance, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has
been extended through Saturday night for the outer waters.
SCA winds and seas will affect nearshore Central Coast waters this
afternoon through evening, and there is a 60 percent chance of
winds reaching SCA criteria again Saturday afternoon and evening.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, winds will remain
below SCA criteria this afternoon and evening, except for local
gusts to 25 knots in the western portion of the Santa Barbara
Channel. On Saturday, the low pressure area and cold front will
cause winds to increase some, perhaps enough to create SCA level
winds even across the inner waters.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT
Sunday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Sweet/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
943 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
No major updates to the forecast this evening, but will be
watching for low clouds and fog developing over south-central SD
as moist easterly flow in the wake of a departing high pressure
advects toward the higher terrain of western SD. The mostly likely
areas for this are from KICR to KPHP and KIEN. However, some
patchy fog also is likely farther west around parts of the
eastern/southern BLKHLS. Development is most likely after 06z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Water vapor shows short wave responsible for our overnight
convection now pushing through the far eastern Dakotas into the
Upper Midwest, with next trof axis along the Pac NW coast and
southwest flow in-between. At the surface, ridge covers the
western Dakotas with early afternoon temps mainly in the 60s.
Warmer air will advect back into the region over the weekend as
upper trof digs across the far western CONUS and splits for a
period of time. A negatively titled ridge extending across the
Northern Plains should result in mainly dry weather for much of
the weekend along with some near record highs on Sunday east of
the Black Hills. As a 50+ low low level jet develops Saturday
night across southwest/south-central SD ahead of an approaching
cold front, gusty southerly winds expected along the usually windy
spots from along the Pine Ridge into south-central SD, with
advisory level winds looking more likely across south-central SD
during the day Sunday as things mix out. Later Sunday, an ejecting
short wave may bring some stronger storms along/east of the cold
front on the western SD plains given increasing instability and
shear.
Much of Monday may be dry behind Sunday night`s wave with temps
about 5-10 degrees cooler than Sunday. However, precip chances
will increase again late Monday through Tuesday as main upper
low/trof works into the Plains. Temps should also be a bit below
average early to mid next week as the trof works through. Upper
trof moves east on Wednesday with possibly some linger showers.
The tail end of the week and weekend still somewhat in question
with regards the strength of a clipper system crossing southern
Canada into the northern tier. The GFS approach is to keep
the bulk of colder air and any precip to our north, while the
GEM/ECMWF are now further south. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 940 PM MDT Fri Sep 29 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for
northeastern WY, the BLKHLS, and far northwestern SD. Further
east, light east-southeast winds were advecting moister air into
the area (per the latest Td depression and streamline analysis).
This will lead to low cloud and fog development after 06z starting
in south-central SD, although some midlevel clouds may slow that
down a bit from the previous forecast. The fog/stratus should then
spread or develop toward the Cheyenne River valley by 12z, as the
HRRR and GLAMP continue to show. This should result in IFR/LIFR
conditions for some of these areas. Ensemble model guidance and
various model soundings hint at the possibility (30-40% chance) of
low clouds reaching KRAP, so have maintained the SCT010 just to
indicate the possibility. Otherwise, a strong southerly flow
should help mix out the low clouds and stratus by 18z for most of
these areas east of KRAP, with VFR conditions anticipated CWA-
wide after 18z.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Update...Bunkers
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Bunkers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
723 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Today will be the last day of seasonal temperatures as a
strong Pacific system moves into the region over the weekend.
Cooler than normal temperatures, gusty southwesterly winds, and
increased precipitation chances will accompany this system.
Temperatures will begin rebounding early next week as this system
clears out and is replaced by high pressure.
&&
.UPDATE...Unseasonably strong trough for late September located
along the PacNW/northern CA coast this evening. Radar detecting
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms along and north of I-80 in
northern California, with light showers or virga from central Nevada
northeast across into Elko County. As energy continues to dig south
into central CA/western Nevada expect more showers and isolated
thunderstorms to develop closer to the southern Sierra of Inyo
County by daybreak Saturday. Tomorrow, models continue to hit
northern Inyo and Esmeralda County the hardest under the cold pool
aloft. Also, will be monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with vorticity center passing overhead late tomorrow
afternoon and evening. HRRR shows precipitation blossoming over San
Bernardino County, before shift northeast through Clark and southern
Nye Counties late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Current forecast
is on track so no update this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Sunday.
Today will be the last day of above normal temperatures as a
Pacific system is poised to move through the region over the next
few days. Southwesterly winds have already begun picking up across
the Mojave Desert as this incoming system digs along the West
Coast. This system will continue to dig south overnight and will
eventually begin to push inland, moving into our forecast area
tomorrow morning. As this system moves into the region tomorrow,
we will see winds increase in response. Widespread 30-40 mph
southwesterly wind gusts are expected across the Mojave Desert
through southern Nevada into northwestern Arizona and
southwestern Utah. While winds are expected to increase tomorrow
as this system moves into the area, temperatures will decrease
around 10-15 degrees. We will see additional cooling from
Saturday to Sunday, with temperatures around 15-20 degrees below
normal on Sunday afternoon as the system lingers over the Desert
Southwest.
In addition to much cooler temperatures and gusty southwesterly
winds, we will also see increased precipitation chances accompany
this system. Esmeralda, Lincoln, Nye, and northern Inyo counties
will see 50-70% precipitation chances associated with this system
tomorrow afternoon and evening. For the more central portions of
our forecast area precipitation chances will peak around 20-40% as
the vorticity maxima at the base of the trough swings through the
area late tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow evening. Snow levels
will drop to around 8,500 feet with this system. However, any
notable accumulations will be limited to elevations above 9,500 to
10,000 feet. Precipitation chances will linger on Sunday for
Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln counties, but the heaviest of
the precipitation is expected on Saturday.
.LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday.
The low will start to weaken and shift east with a chance of some
light showers lingering in Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties
through Monday. Have to watch for potential first freeze of the
season for Lincoln County either Monday or Tuesday morning. High
temperatures not as cold Monday, but still some 10-15 degrees
below normal.
Dry, warmer Tuesday through Thursday with temperatures closer to
normal by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty south-southwest winds this
afternoon, with gusts around 25 knots expected. Speeds decrease
slightly this evening and overnight, but remain elevated. Gusty
conditions resume tomorrow morning with gusts up to 30 knots
possible. High clouds increase overnight, becoming widespread
tomorrow morning along with scattered mid-level clouds.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty south-southwest winds across the region this
afternoon, with gusts of 20-25 knots expected. Speeds decrease
slightly this evening and overnight, but remain elevated. At KBIH,
winds turn northerly this evening as a low pressure system drops in.
This system will also bring showers and lower cloud bases late
tonight and early tomorrow morning. CIGs around 5-6 kft and terrain
obscuration are possible. Elsewhere, increasing high and mid-level
clouds are expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pierce
SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Woods
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