Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/25/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
628 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
--Scattered shower/isolated storm chances remain into Tuesday,
mainly north/northeast.
--Patchy fog possible again tonight.
--Warmer by the end of the work week.
DISCUSSION:
Upper level closed low remains generally stacked with the surface
low and continues to churn over Minnesota/The Dakotas this
afternoon. Moisture wrapping around the low will continue to bring
isolated to scattered chances for showers and maybe a few storms to
portions of the area over the next few days until it departs for the
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. For the rest of today into
tomorrow, these weak showers will be limited to portions of eastern
and northern Iowa, increasing slightly in their scattered
coverage through the day Monday, with the greatest chances on
Monday (though still <40%) over northeast portions of the area.
Can`t completely rule out a rumble of thunder far east today and
northeast half tomorrow afternoon into early evening with some
meager instability in place, but chances overall are pretty low
with generally less than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE in our area through
tomorrow with values slightly higher east of the CWA border. The
lingering moisture may also help lead to the formation of patchy
fog again tonight in areas with clear skies and the expected light
winds. Morning guidance suggests much of the area could see some
patchy fog, but areas northeast - towards Waterloo - may have the
best opportunity for lower visibilities. Lows tonight/highs
tomorrow are expected to be similar to slightly cooler than this
morning/today with the cool front through the area.
Any rainfall amounts tonight into tomorrow (if any) will be on the
light side - a few sprinkles to maybe a couple hundredths if an
area somehow got a stronger (relatively speaking) shower. Chances
for more measurable rain increase tomorrow afternoon into early
Tuesday across far north to northeast areas as the low sags
southeast where a few tenths to maybe upwards of an inch are
possible, though some areas will also stay dry. Cannot completely
rule out some locally higher QPF values with the slow moving
nature of the low allowing for the potential for more efficient
rainfall. This will be the main forecast target of opportunity
through really the rest of the forecast period. Not anticipating
any severe storms over the next few days with the better parameter
space southeast of the area on Tuesday.
Any lingering rainfall looks to rap up by Tuesday night with a
mainly dry mid-late week as an upper ridge moves towards and through
the area with upper troughs over the northwest and eastern U.S. With
the building ridge will come increasing heights and temperatures as
highs look to trend above normal by the end of the work week with
highs near to in the 80s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Quiet, VFR conditions are on tap across all sites. Winds will
become light and variable at times tonight, along with streaming
mid-level cloud cover. By daytime tomorrow, winds will prevail out
of the west around/under 10kts. Confidence in BR/fog tonight is
dwindling, so have removed mentions at KALO.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...Curtis
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
958 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
...New Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Removed far northern and western counties from WW 695, as next
round of convection with mid level impulse across OK and attendant
cold front moving southward toward/into North Texas by or just
after 06z or 1 am. Current pre-frontal trough is along the Hwy 380
corridor back across our western counties. No new initiation
going up on this boundary at the moment. Also, using HRRR wind
forecasts since they match reality better. Watch and forecast
updated already.
05/Martello
Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Monday Night/
Thunderstorms are ongoing across much of Central and North Texas
this evening in response to an approaching cold front and
associated mid level disturbance. Most of this activity is well
ahead of the actual frontal boundary near a surface pre-frontal
trough and moisture discontinuity and will continue to spread
southeast with time through late evening. Strong instability and
modest deep layer shear will continue to support a severe threat
with hail and damaging winds being the primary threat. There is a
narrow axis across our northeast counties where the low levels are
a little more favorable for tornadoes, given better moisture and
back wind fields. We`ve already seen one persistent supercell with
rotation riding along a boundary.
The actual cold front will spread south later tonight and we may
see some redevelopment along the I-20 corridor east of Mineral
Wells through the overnight hours. Some of these storms could also
be severe with primarily a hail threat. Highest PoPs will be where
storms are already occurring and southeast of there through the
late night hours with some lower PoPs to the northwest to account
for new development. This activity will spread into Central Texas
overnight and into early Monday morning before pushing out of our
area. Cooler weather will filter in behind the front, but highs
will still be in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 209 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/
/Monday Night and Beyond/
Convection will have pushed off to the south by the start of the
period as the cold front heads for the Coastal Plains. Pleasant
weather can be expected in the wake of the front, with Tuesday
morning temperatures starting off in the 60s. Meanwhile, the upper
low driving the system will move slowly southeast through the
Midwest during the early to midweek period, with a mid level ridge
building over North and Central Texas in its wake. The ridge will
shut off any convection and return the region to above-normal
temperatures by Wednesday, with the hot and dry weather persisting
through the end of the week.
The upper level pattern will amplify next weekend, with the ridge
axis narrowing and stretching north into Ontario while an upper
low deepens over the Desert Southwest. The amplified ridge will
only keep the warm weather going into the weekend. The low will
move very slowly east and likely will not have any direct
influence on the local weather through at least next weekend, with
above normal temperatures expected Wednesday through next Sunday.
The next precipitation chances may have to wait until the middle
of next week depending on the evolution and progression of the
upstream low.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 732 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/
/00Z TAFs/
TS are ongoing across parts of the D10 airspace at this time but
most of the activity is pushing to the east of the major airports.
We could see some additional development over the next few hours
and we`ll continue with a TEMPO from 5-7Z as the front moves
through the area. Otherwise, winds will gradually become more
easterly, then northeast through the overnight hours with
widespread MVFR cigs expected as the front moves through.
Conditions will improve on Monday as cooler and drier air filters
into the region.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 90 69 91 70 / 60 20 5 0 0
Waco 73 89 69 90 67 / 90 20 5 5 0
Paris 69 85 64 86 63 / 70 20 0 0 0
Denton 71 90 64 92 65 / 40 10 0 0 0
McKinney 70 87 65 89 65 / 60 20 0 0 0
Dallas 73 90 69 91 68 / 60 20 5 0 0
Terrell 71 86 67 89 65 / 70 20 5 5 0
Corsicana 73 87 70 90 69 / 70 20 10 5 0
Temple 73 91 69 92 68 / 90 20 10 5 5
Mineral Wells 71 93 65 93 65 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1056 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains largely in control over northern New
England through much of this upcoming week. Some showers from
the northern fringe of what is left of post tropical Ophelia
may clip far southern areas at times through tonight. Breezy
northeast winds are expected in southeastern NH on Monday. The
remnants of Ophelia exit into the Atlantic Monday with high
pressure becoming centered over New England through the end of
the work week. This will bring fair and dry conditions, with
light winds.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1055 PM....Just adjusted POPs a bit in srn NH to better reflect
ongoing SHRA, with both radar trends and the HRRR supporting
mainly sprinkles there for the rest of the night. Also, clearing
a little quicker on the northern edge of the cloud shield and
temps have radiated a bit, so mins dropped a bit in these
areas.
750 PM...Conditions not much different from last night at this
time, with scattered showers crossing the border out of MA and
into the S tier counties of NH. I suspect this continues through
the rest of evening, but should prob start diminishing after
midnight as the the NE pres grad starts picking up with drier
air moving in aloft. Mins look to range from the upper 40s in
the N to the low to mid 50s in the S. Could see some of the
sheltered spots in the N get colder as skies clear up there
overnight, but the increase NE flow may work against much late
night radiation, so it turns out to be a push.
Previously...A few scattered sprinkles continue tonight, with a
few showers across far southern NH as well. Conditions remain
steady as the remnants of Ophelia move through the Mid Atlantic
tonight, and high pressure remains parked north of New England.
Generally clearer skies farther north allow for temps to cool
more tonight than elsewhere, with some valley fog also likely
across northern areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Decreasing clouds are expected tomorrow as the remnants of
Ophelia move away and high pressure builds farther south across
New England. With this increased sunshine, temperatures warm
into the mid to upper 60s across most areas, except northern
areas where cooler air will be working its way in. With the
building high pressure, northeasterly winds will increase during
the day, especially along the coastline, and become gusty by
the afternoon.
With clearer skies, drier air, and building high pressure,
temperatures fall into the 30s and 40s tomorrow night across the
forecast area. Northern valleys stand the best chance to cool
into the mid 30s, with some patchy frost possible in these
locations. While it`s too early to make decisions on any frost
headlines, this will be the best chance so far this fall.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fair weather is expected through the bulk of the long term
period as deep layer ridging takes control of the Northeast.
This will mean cool nights and warm days with valley fog likely
each night. Upper level low pressure over the western Great
Lakes States will move southeastward and be perhaps the only
chance of some rain for our area late in the week, but that
looks to get squashed southward. So, a dry forecast it is.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Periods of MVFR ceilings continue across far
southern NH tonight. A period of valley fog is likely late
tonight across LEB and HIE, and likely returns again tomorrow
night. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow night.
Long Term...Aviation weather impacts will be limited for this period
with high pressure in control. The only issue will be early valley
morning fog formation that could bring a few hours of LIFR
conditions to some TAF locations. The biggest impacts will be at
KLEB/KHIE/KAUG with fog formation expected to be more limited at
other TAF locations.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas continue to build to near 5ft across the
outer waters this evening. Northeasterly wind gusts increase to
around 25-30 kts tomorrow as high pressure builds southward
across New England.
Long Term...Any SCA conditions will subside Tuesday morning.
The next chance of marginal SCA conditions may come Friday as
some swells make their way into the Gulf of Maine.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip currents remains remain stronger through tomorrow as waves
around 4-5ft continue along the coastline.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Anz150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
707 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Key Messages:
1. 30% chance of showers and storms this afternoon into the
evening south and east of Springfield.
2. Fog develops overnight into Monday morning. Visibilities less
than one mile are expected.
3. A few showers/storms possible on Tuesday night into Wednesday
across central Missouri.
4. Temperatures warming back up in the later part of the week.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and
upper air analysis showed a strong upper low across western
Minnesota with several pieces of energy rotating down the flow
across the central plains. One piece of energy was currently
across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and was moving due east
towards southern Missouri/northern Arkansas. A surface front was
located across western Missouri and was begnning to move east
towards Springfield. Cloud cover lingered across the Ozark
Plateau area however some breaks were occuring across the eastern
Ozarks where temps have increased into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
12z SGF sounding showed that the airmass had stabilized quite a
bit from last nights storms with a large amount of convective
inhibition.
The RAP continues to highlight an increase in instability across
southcentral Missouri this afternoon as breaks in the sun continue
and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to around 70. The RAP peaks
ML CAPE values around 1000-1500j/kg this afternoon east of
Springfield along with a weakening cap as the front and shortwave
energy moves through. Therefore we do think that scattered
showers and thunderstorms will form mainly south and east of
Springfield by late afternoon and continue into the evening before
weakening and drifting southeast of the area. No severe weather
is expected at this time however brief gusty winds, small hail,
locally heavy rainfall and lightning are all potential hazards
this afternoon.
Attention then turns to fog and low stratus potential tonight as
northerly winds attempt to advect in cooler and drier air however
the recent rainfall and low dewpoint depressions should allow for
fog development overnight across the area. Right now the HREF is
highlighting a 40-60% chance of fog reducing visibilities to at
least one mile. BUFKIT soundings indicate the potential for even
lower visibilities therefore we will need to monitor visibility
trends tonight with the potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory
with future updates. The main limiting factor for fog is the
potential for stratus to linger however even then stratus could
build down and allow for fog formation.
HREF data indicates the the low clouds and fog will slowly erode
during the late morning with mostly clear skies by afternoon.
Temps look to reach the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Ensemble cluster analysis is in decent agreement that the upper
low to the north will drift southeast into northern Illinois on
Tuesday and Wednesday. As this system drops south, enough moisture
and lift may be present for scattered thunderstorms northeast of
Springfield, mainly near the Lake of the Ozarks and Rolla areas
Tuesday night. Most areas look to remain dry as the main energy
will be well northeast of the area.
A mid level ridge then looks to estabilish itself across the area
for the rest of the week and into the weekend. NBM temperature
spreads are very small for most of this period with highs in the
80s likely and rain chances remaining less than 10 percent.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
MVFR ceilings are continuing across SGF and BBG and given their
persistence in past obs, they are expected to persist for at
least the next few hours before VFR ceilings occur later this
evening. Additionally, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are
occurring E and SSW of BBG. These will diminish around sunset and
no impact to BBG is expected at this time. Genrally northerly
winds will then weaken with time through tonight becoming variable
at times.
The main concern then shifts to fog and stratus potential
overnight and into Monday morning which may result in <2 mile
(IFR) visibilities in SGF with potential to drop to 1/2 mile
(LIFR) in BBG between the 08-13Z timeframe. Have included this as
an FM in BBG given higher confidence, but trends will be
monitored for the 06Z update. If not fog, there is also a
potential for low stratus development which would lower ceilings
to IFR categories anyways. Confidence is lower that fog and
stratus will impact JLN, but trends will be monitored for
potential decreases in forecast flight categories.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Price
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1018 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
The left-mover from NE TX died before it reached the Red River.
CAM guidance continues to indicate potential for elevated showers
and storms across far SE OK tonight, and the latest radar and
satellite trends (echoes over Bryan county OK) back this up. With
severe potential not as high as earlier, severe mention was
removed from the zones, though the potential isn`t zero. Also, fog
has already develop at KFYV, which lies in a river valley, and the
the latest short-term guidance suggests it will become more
widespread across NW AR with time. Fog was added to the
grids/forecast to cover.
Lacy
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Storms along front across NE OK into NW AR have largely
dissipated, with only an isolated storm or two possible going into
the evening. Focus shifts to the Red River. The 21Z run of the
HRRR suggested that a splitting supercell across NE TX could send
a left-splitter up toward far SE OK early this evening. Latest
radar trends confirm this is occurring. Given long and straight
hodographs from 2 km and upward, it is conceivable that the left-
splitter could last for a time. Will insert severe storm wording
into zones for Choctaw county. Latest hourly NBM PoPs look
reasonable for tonight, so will use those. Some elevated showers
and storms will remain possible near the Red River thru tonight.
Updated products have been sent.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Several noteworthy features across the forecast area this
afternoon. The true cold front with associated drier air is into
far NW Osage county, while a prefrontal trough is aligned
generally along and just south of Interstate 44 from NE OK into
far NW AR. Finally, the outflow boundary from the overnight storms
lies through NE TX but may attempt to lift nearer far SE OK by
early evening. A zone of ascent approaching NE OK is clearly
evident in satellite imagery with a corridor of light radar echoes
spreading eastward. A few intercloud flashes have been signaled
with the GLM data and a rumble of thunder is possible as this wave
passes east over the next few hours. As this ascent approaches NW
AR by mid afternoon and conditions south of the aforementioned
boundary become more unstable, a few thunderstorms are possible
before they quickly move east of the forecast area. Further south
along the remnant outflow boundary conditions are much more
unstable and by late afternoon storms are expected to develop
across N TX or far southern OK and spread east and southeast
through the evening. Forecast storm motions favor a quick
southward turn for any established supercell and this will limit
the area of concern to far SE OK and points southward for any
significant severe weather.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Lingering showers may remain across SE OK early Monday otherwise
dry weather and clearing skies are expected through the day. The
weather pattern is forecast to become more settled across the
region with a dry forecast retained into next weekend. A weak
reinforcing cold front may work into the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday with a very low chance of light showers, otherwise
ridging aloft strengthens mid to late week with temperatures well
above seasonal normals through the upcoming week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023
VFR conditions are common across the area this evening with MVFR
ceilings impacting the KMLC site. These MVFR to VFR conditions will
continue for much of the night with lower ceilings and possibly
fog developing at the northwest Arkansas sites late tonight into
Monday morning. VFR conditions return area-wide by Monday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 86 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 69 87 64 89 / 30 10 0 0
MLC 66 86 60 89 / 30 10 0 0
BVO 56 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 61 84 56 86 / 30 0 0 0
BYV 63 82 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 64 84 59 86 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 58 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
F10 63 84 59 86 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 68 85 63 89 / 70 20 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10