Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/11/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
18z water vapor satellite imagery and RAP mesoanalysis show a
shortwave disturbance crossing the Rockies and advancing towards
the Panhandles, which may act as a catalyst for strong to severe
storms as early as this afternoon. Our 18z special sounding shows
an environment with over 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE,
35 kts of 0-6 km shear, and little to no capping in place. Dew pts
across the area are in the upper 50s with observed PWAT values
increasing to over 1 inch. With little to no capping in place, our
primary question at this time is whether or not initial
convection will develop ahead of the cold front. CAMs have been
all over the place with significantly different solutions from run
to run, making it difficult to decipher what we can anticipate as
the evening unfolds. If a storm or two is able to fire off around
4-7 PM, it would likely be isolated and supercellular in nature
with all hazards possible, although the tornado threat is
relatively low. Monitoring radar and visible satellite trends,
there are no obvious attempts at this just yet with high clouds
possibly prohibiting better destabilization. Models have been
generally trending away from this outcome, but is still
technically plausible. More than likely we will have to wait for a
line of storms to move in from eastern New Mexico after 7PM or
even more likely, for the cold front itself to see widespread
storms with damaging wind and flooding potential. Additional
showers and storms develop behind the front overnight and could
trail over previous areas of heavy rain, continuing a potential
for flash flooding.
A major cool down is on the way Monday with high temperatures
almost 20+ degrees cooler than today behind the front. Precipitation
chances will return tomorrow as another shortwave approaches, although
low clouds and lack of atmospheric recovery may keep things on the
tame side. Any storm that develops could be on the strong side,
especially based on the latest 18z HRRR, but more than likely will
remain as general convection. Even if PWATs decrease in the fronts
wake, heavy rain and additional flooding will be something to keep
an eye on.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
High pressure remains suppressed through the rest of the week.
With northwest flow in place, reduced temperatures and increased
precipitation chances will prevail at the forefront of the
extended. Later next weekend, model ensembles are showing hints
of heights rising again. This may cause temperatures to raise back
to average values for this time of year, while PoPs also
decrease.
Tuesday... An over worked environment behind the cold front will
attempt to recover through the course of the day. However, some of
the deterministic models still favor lingering precipitation for
areas south of the I-40 corridor. High temperatures will remain in
the 60`s and lower 70`s for the day.
Wednesday... Another round of storms may impact many portions of
the combined Panhandles, and some models like the GFS show a
sufficient environment for strong thunderstorms. Flooding will
continue to be a concern, especially for areas that have not
recovered from previous rains. Right now, the northeast Panhandles
are most likely to see flooding impacts. But of course, that is
contingent on the thunderstorm activity we expect to see in those
areas today and Monday.
Thursday onward, thunderstorm chances become more scattered and
isolated as opposed to being widespread. Towards the weekend, high
temperatures will steadily rise into the lower 80`s. Past the
extended, it is difficult to say if another cold front will bring
more moisture back to the area or if the upper level pattern will
stagnate allowing stable air to settle in. We will see what
guidance shows in the next few days, but for now the current
pattern will favor precipitation across the CWA.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Panhandles with
additional storms on the way from the north and west. Storms
dropping south from KS and CO could congeal and impact both KDHT
and KGUY in the next few hours with strong wind gusts possible as
they roll in. Other area of storms in eastern NM should expand as
it moves towards KAMA and also pose a risk for strong winds. A
cold front will bring in additional intermittent showers/storms
along with impactful low ceilings (possibly fog as well) through
the end of the period at all sites.
Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 62 72 56 69 / 60 70 40 30
Beaver OK 57 68 51 72 / 80 70 20 10
Boise City OK 56 64 50 68 / 60 70 30 20
Borger TX 63 72 56 74 / 60 70 40 30
Boys Ranch TX 61 71 55 70 / 60 60 40 30
Canyon TX 62 72 56 68 / 60 60 60 30
Clarendon TX 65 73 59 68 / 70 70 60 30
Dalhart TX 57 67 50 68 / 60 60 40 30
Guymon OK 57 67 50 72 / 70 60 20 20
Hereford TX 62 74 56 69 / 60 60 60 40
Lipscomb TX 60 70 52 72 / 80 80 30 20
Pampa TX 62 69 55 69 / 70 80 40 20
Shamrock TX 63 74 58 72 / 70 80 50 30
Wellington TX 65 76 59 73 / 70 80 60 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...38
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
554 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Morning showers and thunderstorms have moved east of the Nebraska
Panhandle this afternoon, leaving a stable, clearing atmosphere in
their wake. This stable air has proven difficult for CAM guidance
to initialize through the morning hours, with various iterations
of guidance supporting stronger showers and thunderstorms today.
It appears as though guidance has finally caught on to the trends
observed both on radar, satellite, and in surface observations and
the convective threat appears much more diminished today east of
I-25. Along and west of the Laramie Range however, skies have
remained much clearer through the morning and afternoon hours,
allowing instability to build through the day. RAP mesoanalysis
fields indicate around 1500J/kg of SBCAPE with around 30-40 knots
of bulk shear - certainly enough for a few multicell clusters and
perhaps a more potent discrete cell or two. SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk over the area today, and with the aforementioned
parameter space in place as well as slowly clearing skies on
satellite, would not be shocked to see some brief instances of
severe-level hail this afternoon. This threat may be maximized in
in the Converse to northern Albany/Platte county areas, where
locally backed surface flow and the best surface heating appear
to be materializing per surface obs/cloud fields. Unlike last
night, forecast guidance brings thunderstorm activity to an end
fairly quickly after 9pm as surface heating is lost and forcing
shifts eastward into the plains. Low clouds and fog will persist
overnight throughout much of the area as light easterly moist
upslope flow continues. Any mid/upper level clearing will enhance
the radiational aspect of the fog threat overnight. Will have to
monitor obs for any possible Dense Fog products along the I-80
summit overnight into Monday morning.
Light northwest flow aloft will be in place on Monday as subtle
riding moves into the Great Basin region. At the surface, weak post-
frontal upslope flow will keep a cool, partly cloudy airmass in
place. Temperatures will continue to run 10 to 15 degrees colder
than average across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. With
this relatively stable setup in place, not expecting much in the
way of precipitation on Monday, except in the higher terrain of
southeast Wyoming where a few isolated afternoon showers and
storms will remain possible.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023
The region will remain cloudy with cooler temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak ridge sitting over the region will
continue to weaken as both a shortwave trough to the south and a
longer wave trough over the Pacific northwest combine to flatten and
weak the ridge axis. The main impact will come from the southern
shortwave that skirts the region with the bulk of the precipitation
staying south into Colorado but some low end PoP chances were
carried along and south of the I-80 corridor across SE Wyoming.
Should hold on to the clouds and cooler temperatures with some
modification of the temperatures occurring across Carbon county where
the placement and slow east progression of the long wave trough
should usher in drier air and warmer H7 temperatures.
The big weather maker will be that longwave trough as it moves into
the Intermountain West and approaches our area. Current
deterministic model runs have come into better agreement with the
initial approach of the longwave trough and both have an open wave
moving through. Things begin to diverge significantly with the GFS
wanting to close the low off near the Wyoming/South Dakota border
and has it lingering for a bit before opening up and rapidly moving
off to the east. This solution would bode for a more concentrated
area of moderate precipitation and a cooler forecast as the
circulation around the now closed low would increase the northerly
to northwesterly flow and bring in better CAA from the north. This
solution also introduces the potential for parts of the area to get
dry slotted somewhat drier in those northwesterly downslope regions/
The ECMWF keeps the the system and open wave with ridging moving in
immediately in its wake. Interestingly enough this solution also
has a cool northerly flow for the region so the highest confidence
resides in the temperature forecast for the end of the week into
next weekend. Both solutions do bring the threat of precipitation to
the region but vary on the duration of the precipitation. Overall
approach was to keep blend the PoP chances toward ECMWF and
associated ensemble members which overall means a longer duration of
the unsettled weather heading toward the end of the week.
With the cooler temperatures and CAA advection progged to begin,
higher elevation valleys may be at risk to see some frost/freeze
issues, primarily focused on those valleys west of the Laramie
Range. As of now, the coldest overnight lows are forecast for next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 544 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Northwest flow aloft will continue, while a cool, moist airmass
remains over the region in the wake of a cold front.
Wyoming TAFS...Broken clouds from 8000 to 10000 feet AGL will
occur at Rawlins this evening with thunderstorms in the vicinity
until 03Z, then mostly clear skies will prevail. Winds will gust
to 20 knots until 03Z.
At Laramie, ceilings will vary from 3000 to 6000 feet AGL
overnight with occasional light rain until 03Z, reducing
visibilities to 4 miles. Overcast at 1200 feet AGL will occur from
12Z to 15Z with visibilities in fog reduced to 4 miles. Scattered
clouds at 5000 feet AGL will then occur after 15Z Monday.
Cheyenne will see ceilings around 1500 feet AGL until 07Z, with
visibilities from 4 to 5 miles in drizzle after 04Z. Visibilities
will range from 2 to 4 miles in light rain and fog from 07Z to
16Z, with ceilings under 1000 feet AGL, then ceilings will be
3500 feet AGL after 16Z Monday.
Nebraska TAFS...At Chadron and Alliance, ceilings will range from
3500 to 7000 feet AGL until 06Z, then 3 to 4 miles in fog with
ceilings near 1500 feet AGL until 09Z, then skies will be mostly
clear.
At Scottsbluff and Sidney, ceilings will vary from 3000 to 7000
feet AGL until 06Z, then ceilings will be under 1000 feet AGL with
visibilities from 3 to 6 miles until 15Z, then skies will be
mostly clear.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Sun Sep 10 2023
A moist airmass is in place over much of southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska which will negate any fire weather threats for the next two days.
Drying will move in by Tuesday through midweek however cooler temperatures
will keep RH values above critical fire weather thresholds. Expect light
westerly winds during the afternoons with any gusts over 25 mph limited to
areas near thunderstorm outflows.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
644 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
...Widespread showers/iso storms into early Monday
for mainly the south 2/3rds
...Secondary trough/showers northeast Tuesday
...Generally cooler than normal through Sunday
Confidence Short Term: Medium to High
Interesting synoptic progression this forecast period. Current
surface map shows a weak nearly stationary boundary front located in
southwest Iowa to about Lansing Iowa at 13z. High pressure is spread
over most of the Northern Plains into southern Canada. Though
moisture at the surface is not all that impressive with dew points
in the 50s to around 60 nearer the boundary, there remains a signal
for some decent rainfall from later this evening into Monday morning,
exiting the southeast by early afternoon. Aloft at H850, there is
a strengthening baroclinic zone from North Platte east to about
Omaha and then toward northeast Iowa. Farther north across Wisconsin,
there is a trough and pool of much cooler air which will help to
maintain the boundary aloft in the next 24 hours. For now, weak
low pressure is located in northeast/east Colorado at H850 with a
ribbon of +10C dew points stretching from the Gulf northwest into
eastern Colorado east to North Platte. This lobe of moisture is
currently feeding the showers and isolated thunderstorms over
eastern Nebraska into western Iowa at 14z. At H500, a more significant
wave is digging into the Northern Plains/Central Plains by later
today and tonight. Height falls are already expanding showers and
storms over western Nebraska in response to the approaching wave.
Currently, weak warm air advection is beginning to move into Iowa
with the upper level winds/moisture and as forcing increases aloft
this evening and overnight, the warm air advection will continue
to expand into our area as the H850 front drops farther south and
the H500 wave catches up with the lower level features. This will
eventually form both a surface low and H850 low, producing a weak
fall cyclone as it enters the Great Lakes. The good news is that
as the process commences tonight, widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms will fill in across the region; especially after 00z.
The HRRR and ARW cores continue to step the rainfall from western
Iowa southeast into eastern Iowa, with more of the rainfall south
of Interstate 80 as the wave crosses I35 with 1 to 2 inch amounts
in the south and a quarter to half inch amounts as far north as
US30. The FV3 core and the GFS are now a bit farther north with
the heavier axis lining up along US 30 and dropping up to 1 inch
of rainfall between 00z and 18z. The 12z Euro is now farther south
compared to the 00z run and keeps the bulk of the rainfall
generally south of I80 with lighter amounts to the north. This
would reflect a slightly farther south digging of the upper level
system. The only remaining question is the area of greater rainfall
amounts by tomorrow. Given the synoptic forcing is the driving
force this time, the GFS/Euro/FV3 and to a lesser extent NAM (due
to northerly biases) are the models of choice and more likely the
heavier rain will occur between US 30 and our southern border.
The newer models are somewhat weaker with the isentropic lift and
eventual amplification once the system tracks east of I35 with winds
veering across the boundary with time. This should lead to a bit
less rainfall as the system translates to the east. As for rainfall
efficiency, and model qpf output present forecasts, the GFS is
showing 1.25 to 1.5 inch PWATs over the central/south during the
event with warm cloud depths slightly greater than 10kft. This
will help bring some rainfall totals greater than an inch with a
potential to see some half inch or higher rainfall rates overnight
when the system begins to amplify. Given our current soil moisture
and drought conditions and river levels, there will be no impacts
other than possibly some brief ponding of water on roads and
interstates. Since most of the rain will fall overnight, it is
likely to not impact travel to any great degree. With the clouds
and incoming rainfall, overnight mins will remain mild central to
south where temperatures hold in the upper 50s to lower 60s
overnight. Across the far northwest, will end up slightly warmer
in the lower 50s due to farther north forecast of clouds overnight
until around sunrise. Tomorrow will be much cooler. As the low
begins to exit the region, we will see the cooler air north of the
trough in Wisconsin and Minnesota help to amplify the low, north
northeast winds will increase to about 15 to 20 mph, ushering in
H850 temperatures in the upper single digits. This will keep
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s northwest/west and north
central and closer to 70 in the central to southeast areas. Monday
night will be rather cool with overnight lows in the 40s to lower
50s across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Confidence: Medium to High
Tuesday will start off cool and sunny, but eventually give way to
clouds and another round of instability showers/iso thunderstorms
over about the northeast third of our area. The Euro continues to
show a secondary trough/cool front rotating southeast around the
upper level low; with the GFS and NAM now catching up to the Euro
today. At first glance, this will occur mainly after 18z and from
about EST southeast to ALO during peak heating. Once the front
clears the region by late Tuesday, Canadian high pressure will
dominate the weather through late Friday with generally sunny to
partly cloudy skies, pleasant temperatures during the day and
comfortable to cool overnight lows. Current model guidance is
running slightly warmer than our own, blended model forecast, but
overall within a few degrees. There remains little signal for any
appreciable precipitation beyond tomorrow and this trend remains
through the end of the forecast period. Overall, highs will remain
in the comfortable 70s to around 80 late in the period with
overnight mins rather cool Tuesday/Wednesday in the lower to mid 40s
north; upper 40s/lower 50s in the south warming to the upper
40s/lower 50s Thursday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
A weather disturbance that is moving eastward into Iowa from
Nebraska to bring increasing chances for showers/iso storms across
the region through the remainder of this evening into Monday
morning across the region, with the highest risk for low CIGS and
visibilities being across the southeastern 1/2 of Iowa. Somewhat
drier air filtering in from the NW to end the shower threat and
help to keep CIGS/visibilities mainly in the VFR range at KFOD
and KMCW by late tonight/early Monday. Conditions will drop to
MVFR with lowering cigs/br with OCNL IFR conditions possible by
late tonight/early Monday at KALO/KDSM/KOTM as the rainfall
becomes more widespread closer/just north of the sfc front. OCNL
Moderate showers/rain likely with iso thunder expected as well.
Conditions to improve from NW to SE by Monday afternoon as the
disturbance pulls northeast of region. Winds to remain on the
light side and blow mainly from a N-NE direction at all of the
terminals thru the TAF period.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...Percha
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Evening/
After a mild and day by recent standards in recent weeks of
stifling heat, the cool down trend continues gradually, as clouds
increase tonight with increasing clouds with surface winds veering
southeasterly into Sunday morning. Rain chances will increase
across western parts of the region as an impressive mid level
impulse and larger scale ascent juxtaposes with strengthening LLJ
of 35-45 kts and associated warm advection from the Big Country
into Northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. Couldn`t rule out a
little embedded thunder across areas northwest of the Sherman-
Denison and DFW Metro areas with mid level lapse rates exceeding 6
deg C/km, but overall precipitation should be in the form of a
steady light rain or showers. Any rainfall across these areas
through midday Monday appear quite light per collaboration with
our QPF folks at WPC. Most locales should see no more than 0.10",
though isolated amounts to 0.25" certainly can`t be ruled out
northwest of a Ranger, to Jacksboro, to Montague and Saint Jo
line.
It appears that a brief reprieve in shower activity occurs Monday
afternoon. Here in North-Central Texas, we be in between mid
level disturbances with the majority of showers and embedded
thunderstorms occurring along or behind an approaching cold front
well northwest of the area. This cold front should enter our far
northwest counties around the evening rush before moving quickly
southward through the I-20 (west) and I-30 corridors during Monday
evening. Temperatures will continue to trend near normal at night
and below normal during the daytime hours thanks to both the
front, increasing cloud cover, and rain chances across the western
counties. Low temperatures will be similar to last night and
range between 65 to 75 degrees. Highs Monday stay confined mostly
in the 80s north of I-20 while warming into mostly the lower to
mid 90s further south into the lower Trinity and Brazos Valleys.
05/Martello
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/
We will finally enjoy some cooler weather this week along with
multiple opportunities of rain. While not everyone will see rain
every day, most locations will receive at least some measurable
precipitation by the end of the week. As mentioned in the short-
term discussion, northwest flow aloft is the responsible of this
active weather pattern and is forecast to prevails through most
of the week into the weekend. The combination of a few passing
shortwaves and lingering surface boundaries will bring sufficient
large scale ascent for scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday through Friday. We won`t jump in in any specific details
yet, but in general 1 to 3 inches is expected over the next
7-days with the greatest accumulations across the northern half of
our CWA. Additionally, more than 50% of the ensemble members show
most locations receiving at least half an inch of rain (crossing
fingers). The main concern with this activity will be the
potential for locally heavy rainfall given the moderate/enhanced
forecast PWATs. This may increase flooding concerns mid-to-late
week, mainly to those few locations that receive abundant rainfall
earlier in the week. The best rain chances are expected to shift
to Central TX late Friday into Saturday as a surface boundary
resides near the area.
Cooler temperatures are forecast this week with highs in the
upper-70s/low-80s across North Texas and mid-80s/low-90s across
Central Texas. Extended guidance also suggest these near to below
normal temperatures will persist into the weekend with highs in
the 80s both Saturday into Sunday.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
VFR with successive periods of mid-high clouds above FL150
continue through 12z Monday, as the D10 airspace remains under
persistent NNW flow aloft. Top-down saturation occurs down to/or
just past 700mb with BKN-OVC clouds around 10 kft as the day
progresses on Monday with a few showers across the D10 airspace.
I have maintained VCSH wording from the previous 18z forecast as
prospects for TS appear very low thanks to limited instability,
even ahead and with FROPA arriving in DFW by 03z Tuesday.
E winds 7-11 kts this evening will gradually become SE and
increase to 10-12 kts and gusty later Monday morning, before FROPA
Monday evening results in surface winds backing around to the NE
at the similar speeds and gustiness. ZFW and I both see the HRRR
trying to produce a weak outflow late tonight and early Monday
that would produce a wind shift back to a NE/NNE component at less
than 10 kts, but confidence was too low for mention in the DFW
D10 airports at this time.
05/Martello
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 88 71 83 69 / 20 40 60 50 50
Waco 69 93 69 91 70 / 0 20 40 40 30
Paris 65 86 67 82 65 / 0 20 40 40 40
Denton 69 87 67 83 65 / 20 50 70 50 50
McKinney 68 87 67 81 65 / 10 40 60 50 50
Dallas 73 89 71 86 70 / 10 30 60 50 50
Terrell 67 89 69 86 67 / 0 20 40 50 40
Corsicana 69 92 72 88 71 / 0 10 30 40 30
Temple 69 95 70 92 69 / 0 20 40 30 30
Mineral Wells 70 89 67 83 66 / 40 60 80 70 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
641 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
...Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Key Messages:
* Showers and weak embedded thunderstorms exit the area this
evening and overnight from NW to SE.
* Lingering low clouds, and perhaps some patchy fog, will
dissipate Monday morning, leaving beautiful weather conditions
for the afternoon and evening.
* Very pleasant weather pattern shaping up for the upcoming work
week with seasonable temperatures and very little chance for
rain until perhaps towards the end of the week.
Forecast Details:
Shortwave trough moving through the N Plains has brought
widespread shield of light to moderate rain, and even a few areas
of embedded weak thunderstorms, to much of the region today. The
copious clouds, shwrs, and lgt Nrly winds have kept daytime temps
the coolest they`ve been in quite some time - generally in the
60s. Far SE zones warmed up earlier today, but even HJH has fallen
into the upper 60s as of 20Z. Rain amounts have been quite
variable thus far, ranging from an inch plus in W/SW zones, to
around 0.50-1.00 for Tri-Cities, to only a few hundredths-tenths
SE third of CWA where rain has been slowest to move in. Activity
isn`t nearly as convective in nature as it was earlier today out W
as lapse rates and instability have really faded with time and
eastward extent. This will likely keep rain amounts on the lower
end, generally 0.25-0.75", going forward from now thru the eve,
with lowest amounts in far E/SE zones. Have sped up the end time
of pcpn tonight based on latest model trends. Much of the 12Z
guidance put brunt of pcpn S/E of Tri-Cities by midnight, and
largely S of the state line by dawn...generally 6-9+hrs faster
than prev forecast. However, even this might not be fast enough as
latest time-lagged HRRR is dry for the Tri-Cities by 00-03Z, and
all but far S tier of KS zones by 06Z.
Will likely have some stratus that lingers overnight and into
early morning hrs Mon, and perhaps even some areas of fog
depending on how quick the clds clear. Fairly lgt winds and recent
rain would support fog if the clds clear out. This seems most
probable from central Neb. towards ODX and BBW. Will pass along to
eve shift for potential formal inclusion in the grids.
Regardless of the exact end time of pcpn, Mon daytime hrs are
looking much drier for majority of CWA compared to prev forecasts.
In fact, decr skies and fairly lgt winds and low humidity should
make for a very pleasant aftn. Have bumped up highs a couple deg
with the notion that there should be mostly sunny skies by mid
aftn. So what was once a forecast with highs in the 60s is now
widespread in the low to mid 70s.
The rest of the week looks just as nice, honestly, as latest
ensembles suggest stable high temps in the 70s and lows in the
50s, with low day-to-day spread. Wouldn`t be surprised if more
upper 70s and lower 80s sneak into the forecast for Tue-Wed, and
maybe even Thu, given ongoing drought conditions. Some models hint
at a weak disturbance/front later in the week and possibly a
slight cool down and/or lgt pcpn. Doesn`t look to be significant
rain producer, though, as latest EPS keeps probabilities for tenth
of an inch, or more, at generally 30-40 percent, or less.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Rain showers are expected to continue to move out of the area.
Ceilings will likely improve slightly this evening but are
expected to drop again tonight. Ceilings will likely lower to IFR
until around or just after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected
around 15z. Low visibilities due to patchy fog are possible
tonight. Winds will generally be light ranging from the northeast
to north.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Schuldt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1033 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected into tonight along with
cooling temperatures, as a slow-moving boundary moves across the
Northeast. A low then moves in from the Great Lakes and brings
more showers and thunderstorms to the region on Monday. Mostly
cloudy conditions and a chance of showers continues into Tuesday
before another low pressure and slow-moving cold front bring
more showers and thunderstorms toward the middle of this week.
Drier weather is expected behind the cold front toward late
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast for the
overnight hours. We continue to see showers move through from
time to time as well as the continued development of fog.
710 PM Update...Cool and rainy will be the words for most this
evening as a slug of light to occasionally moderate rain moves
northeastward through the forecast area. Thought about taking
thunder out of the forecast...and still may...but pockets of
instability and ascent are still forecast from time to time so
will keep an isolated wording in there.
Previously...
A quasi stationary front will waver over northern New England
tonight through Monday night before shifting offshore towards
Tuesday morning. This boundary has provided a focus for ample
cloud cover over and pockets of showers to track SW to NE across
the area. Hi res models continue to struggle with handling the
timing and location of these showers. The general consensus is
that an area of convection over southern New England will track
northeastward into the area this evening with this convection
weakening as it encounters a more stable environment.
Northeast flow continues to dominate across the area limiting
instability with the latest RAP analysis suggesting only upwards of
1000 J/kg of MU CAPE will exist along and SW a line from KLEB to
KMHT. North and east of this line from KLEB to KMHT MU CAPE will
struggle to reach 500 J/kg. Have trended down thunder chances
this evening through tonight due to the lack of instability
while showers will become likely across the area through
tonight. The lack of instability has lessened the concern for
heavy rain while isolated pockets of heavy rain will be possible
through tonight across far southern NH into the CT Valley.
There will also be fog across the area tonight with lows mainly
in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The front will continue to provide a focus for clouds and showers
Monday. A short wave over the Ohio Valley will weaken as it lifts
into New England Monday afternoon and will eventually help to shift
the front offshore by Tuesday morning. Monday is looking fairly
similar to today with instability primarily confined south of the
area. The most bullish CAM solutions only bring around 1000-1500
J/kg of MU CAPE into the area while other CAMs limit instability to
the southern third of the area. This once again brings mixed signals
as to how widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms will
be. The HRRR continues to be the most bullish with widespread
showers and some thunderstorms while even this solution suggests
strong to severe storms are unlikely with a very limited threat
for localized heavy rain. Other CAM solutions show very
widespread shower activity Monday. Highs on Monday will range
from the upper 60s north to mid 70s south.
Any shower activity will diminish Monday night. The front will
slowly shift offshore towards Tuesday morning allowing somewhat
drier air to filter in the region. There will remain potential
for patchy fog with lows dropping into the upper 50s across the
north and mid 60s across the far south.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough will continue to slowly move east from the
Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This will allow for scattered
showers and with sufficient instability a few thunderstorms. The
upper level trough and a surface cold front will trigger more
widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Some of the
precipitation may be quite heavy due to the slow moving nature
of the front as well as an axis of 1.5"+ precipitable water
values.
12Z operational models and ensemble solutions suggest mainly
dry conditions can be expected on Thursday and Friday. However,
enough cyclonic flow may linger for a brief shower on Thursday
mainly across the north.
Hurricane Lee will move north to northeast this week and may
brush the region this upcoming weekend. See latest bulletins
from the National Hurricane Center for details. In any case,
large swells will likely be reaching the coast later in the work
week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Cigs will lower through this evening and areas of
fog will bring IFR to LIFR tonight with areas of and SHRA. Some
improvement is expected Monday while cigs will likely remain at
MVFR thresholds. Chances for scattered SHRA will continue
through Monday evening with some chances for TSRA. Conditions
likely lower again Monday night in low cigs and some fog
Long Term...Fog and low stratus are again looking likely into
Tuesday morning, with IFR to LIFR restrictions possible.
Visibility expected to improve Tuesday morning, but IFR to MVFR
ceilings could stick around through the day along with patchy
drizzle and/or a few showers which will last into Wednesday. VFR
conditions return for Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through
Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the
waters along with fog through Monday night. Winds remain onshore
before a front enters the waters Monday night shifting winds
out of the northeast.
Long Term...Conditions remain below SCA levels on Tuesday, but
increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front could build seas
to SCA levels on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front looks
to pass through Wednesday night or early Thursday, but long-
period swells from Hurricane Lee are expected to prolong the SCA
conditions as seas build the rest of this week into the early
part of next weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cannon
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1019 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid weather will continue through Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. A cold front will
push offshore Wednesday night, followed by cooler and much
drier air late this week into the weekend. Large swells from
Hurricane Lee should create hazardous beach and ocean conditions
later this week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Cleared out the remaining POPs across the FA for the remainder
of the night. Latest KLTX 88D trends and high res HRRR keep the
FA dry for the remainder of the evening and thru the pre-dawn
Mon hrs. Will deal with convective debris clouds early on but a
few models hint at possible fog and or low stratus clouds,
especially inland, during early Mon morning. AT this point,
will indicate patchy fog after midnight and carry it for up to
a few hrs after daybreak Mon. Winds generally calm and once the
debris clouds dissipate or mix out, temps should reach
prescribed lows and there4 no major tweaking needed.
Marine winds and seas look aok. The 16 to 18 second period,
albeit small, Lee swell has arrived. Eventually will dominate
the seas, power-wise, during Mon. Ie. Observed spectral density
charts via NDBC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue into
evening in association with an old front and upper trough. The
influence of the upper trough will lessen on the area Monday,
resulting in convection that is more isolated in nature. Lows
tonight will fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs
Monday in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave that brought showers and thunderstorms to the
area over the weekend should be zipping out to the northeast
across coastal New England by Monday night. A tropical airmass
will remain across the Carolinas in a relative lull halfway
between an approaching front over the Ohio Valley and Hurricane
Lee south of Bermuda. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
should continue to develop during the afternoons and early
evenings, supplemented along the coast and offshore by
convective activity along the landbreeze front. Nights are
almost as long as days now and the landbreeze has become a more
important feature.
Mid level westerly winds should increase across the area
Wednesday as an impressive upper trough moves across the Great
Lakes. A cold front beneath the trough should finally make it
into the Carolinas Wednesday night. Wednesday represents the
last day we`ll likely have a tropical airmass in place for
awhile. With stronger mid level winds we`ll also likely see
better coverage of showers and storms, currently around 40
percent in the forecast. Surface winds will turn northerly
behind the front late Wednesday night.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should reach 85-90 with overnight
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cooler air will begin to
stream in behind the front late Wednesday night and some mid 60s
could show up inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cooler and significantly drier airmass should build in late
this week behind Wednesday night`s front. Precipitable water
values could actually fall below 0.5 inch Friday with surface
dewpoints in the lower 50s for a time.
Dry weather, mainly clear skies, and an early preview of fall
temperatures looks to be in store for Thursday through Saturday
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s to
lower 60s. By Sunday, we`ll pick up a southerly winds as the
high drifts offshore, but the airmass won`t have tremendous
moisture content yet as it`s still air of Canadian origin.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR to dominate this evening, do not foresee additional
convection across the local terminals based on latest KLTX 88D
trends and latest high res HRRR model persistent runs. MVFR/IFR
possible from fog and/or low stratus between 04Z and 13Z,
especially across the inland terminals. Could see sub 3k foot
Cu develop quickly during Mon morning across the coastal
terminals. At this juncture, models indicate mainly sea breeze
induced convection by midday thru the aftn and inland mid aftn
til sunset. Will indicate VCTS at all terminals given the
overall low probs for pcpn.
Extended Outlook...Generally VFR conditions to dominate thru the
period. The exceptions will be flight restrictions early Tue
and Wed mornings from fog/low stratus and diurnally driven
convection Tue thru late Wed. The convection Wed will be
enhanced by a CFP.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Monday...Light S winds tonight will become west by
daybreak and back to southerly again during the day. Speeds
look to run 10 KT or less with seas of 2 to 3 FT.
Monday night through Friday...A tropical airmass will linger
across the area Monday through Wednesday. Scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms are expected during the period, most
numerous along the landbreeze front as it moves offshore early
Tuesday and again early Wednesday mornings. The bigger story may
turn out to be increasing long period swell from Hurricane Lee.
Lee will remain hundreds of miles east of the Carolinas, likely
passing just west of Bermuda sometime Friday. Swells of 3 feet
every 15 seconds Monday night will build to 4 to 6 feet by
Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for the
NC waters starting Wednesday.
A cold front should push off the coast late Wednesday night,
followed by breezy north winds gusting 15-25 knots through
Friday morning. This will create a short period chop on top of
the large easterly swell from Lee, leading to complex seas and
hazardous conditions for small craft. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely be expanded to include the South Carolina coastal
waters no later than Thursday morning.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/31
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
651 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Through Monday night...
The main forecast item of note through Monday night remains on the
widespread rain that will move into the area tonight and continue
throughout the day tomorrow (Monday).
Before the more widespread rain arrives, a few spotty showers forced
along the nose of a 30 kt 700 mb jet streak and leading wing of
ascent associated with a lead mid/upper-level disturbance to our
west may be seen across a portion of northern Illinois late this
afternoon and into this evening. The general expectation is that
the coverage of these showers won`t be any greater than what was
seen in the NWS Quad Cities CWA earlier this afternoon, and may
even be relegated to just an isolated blip or two as the leading
glances of ascent outrun the better low-level moisture, but have
nevertheless spatiotemporally broadened the going slight chance
PoPs to better account for the latest observational trends and the
spatial QPF footprint being conveyed in the latest HRRR runs.
Can`t completely rule out a rogue lightning strike or two
occurring with this activity as well, but the limited degree of
moisture should make prospects for this more difficult than to our
west in Iowa, where better moisture has been present.
After midnight tonight, large scale forcing for ascent will increase
markedly as a weakly coupled upper-level jet structure passes
overhead and a more prominent secondary trough diving south-
southeastward out of Manitoba begins to interact with the
aforementioned lead disturbance. A corridor of light to
moderate/soaking stratiform rain will commensurately overspread a
slow-moving frontal zone draped over the northern half of our
forecast area and will continue to stream through the area
through most or all of the day on Monday with the precipitation
axis gradually shifting southeastward with time in tandem with the
frontal zone. A meager amount of instability may permit the rain
to take on a more showery character at times and could even
support some potential for occasional embedded lightning strikes
within the broader precipitation shield, though poor mid-level
lapse rates should preclude the threat for lightning to amounting
to anything more than that. It`s also worth noting that
surface-850 mb delta Ts over southern Lake Michigan should be
marginally favorable for favorable for waterspouts with any
deeper convective cells that manage to pass over the lake,
particularly during the evening and overnight hours Monday night
into Tuesday morning.
Climatologically high precipitable water values for mid-September
peaking in the 1.3-1.5" range should support the potential for some
pockets of more efficient rainfall at times within both convective
elements and any instances of frontogenetic banding. However, the
limited degree of available instability, our antecedent dryness, and
the likely ephemeral longevity of any heavier downpours at any
one location should largely preclude any concerns for notable or
widespread flash flooding. While localized instances of ponding on
roadways may still be seen wherever the steadier rainfall rates
persist for a sufficient period of time, this rain should prove to
be more of an overall benefit than a detriment for our area given
that the relative lack of recent rainfall has resulted in
worsening drought conditions across the region.
Most of the rain should cease by late Monday evening, but isolated
to scattered lake effect rain showers may continue in the
vicinity of Lake Michigan through the overnight hours.
Ogorek
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Tuesday through Sunday...
A much cooler Autumn airmass will be in place across the area for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an expansive upper trough set up over
the Great Lakes region. This cool airmass, (around +6C at 850 mb)
is likely to set up favorable thermodyamics over Lake Michigan to
support lake effect rain showers, along with the possibility of
waterspouts across the southern sections of Lake Michigan on
Tuesday. These lake effect showers will be most favored to impact
northwestern sections of IN Tuesday into Tuesday evening. While
most of inland portions of northern IL will likely remain dry for
much of the day Tuesday, some scattered afternoon and evening
showers could develop in association with another impulse
shifting across the area.
Otherwise, things will dry out Wednesday into Thursday as a
surface high settles in over the western Great Lakes. This should
result in a few days of rather nice weather across the area.
Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s to the low
70s, with cool overnight lows falling into the 40s outside of
Chicago and away from the lake. This stretch of quiet and
pleasant weather is likely to persist into at least the first
portion of next weekend as well, though some moderation in
temperatures (back well into the 70s) is likely.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
651 PM...Primary forecast concerns include...
Periods of rain Monday morning and again Monday afternoon/evening.
Low chance for thunderstorms Monday morning and Monday afternoon.
Low mvfr cigs Monday.
Wind directions Monday.
A few showers will be possible for the next hour or two, mainly
across northwest IL as a weak frontal boundary moves across the
area. These are expected to dissipate by mid evening. A lake
breeze has moved west of ORD/MDW with easterly winds to 10kt
behind this boundary. Winds are expected to become light southeast
this evening and possibly light southerly overnight. Winds may
end up becoming light and variable at most locations overnight.
The frontal boundary noted above and its location will determine
wind directions at the Chicago terminals Monday morning. Its
possible this boundary may remain north of ORD, with southerly
winds during the morning or it may move south of MDW with light
northeast winds at ORD/MDW which was in the previous forecast and
continued with this forecast. However, confidence is only medium
on the winds and changes are possible with later forecasts.
Eventually, winds are expected to shift northerly by early Monday
afternoon and possibly north/northeast later Monday afternoon.
Rain is expected to spread across northern IL during the predawn
hours, possibly into the RFD area by 08z-09z and then into the
Chicago terminals by 12z. There could be some embedded
thunderstorms but overall coverage is likely to remain isolated
and opted to have no mention with this forecast. But thunder is
possible and some mention may be needed as trends emerge tonight.
Even without thunder, the rain may be heavy at times with brief
ifr cigs/vis possible.
Cigs are expected to lower into mvfr shortly after the rain begins
and low mvfr cigs are possible, especially north of the boundary
noted above. Some ifr cigs are possible, especially across
northwest IL and RFD. Mvfr cigs are likely to continue through
Monday evening with perhaps another period of cigs around 1kft
later Monday afternoon/early Monday evening as a secondary
boundary moves across the area. A period of north/northeast winds
is expected with some gusts also possible. After a possible lull
in the rain midday/early Monday afternoon, another period of rain
is expected from mid/late Monday afternoon into Monday evening,
ending from northwest to southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are
again possible during this time period, with perhaps a better
chance just south of the terminals and no mention again with this
forecast. cms
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
529 PM MST Sun Sep 10 2023
.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures will continue for today across southcentral AZ,
with temperatures cooling off towards normal going into the middle
of the work week. Increasing moisture pushing in from the west
today will expand eastward into southern AZ and increase shower
and thunderstorm chances beginning tomorrow and lasting through
the middle of the week. Temperatures will remain near normal into
next weekend with drier conditions developing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Early this afternoon, skies are generally partly cloudy across
southcentral AZ, with Sky Harbor already reaching 110 degrees,
which is now the 55th day of high temperatures 110+ degrees for
2023. Additionally, the daily high temperature record has also
been set as the latest readings of 113 degrees have been observed
this afternoon. Further west, temperatures are cooler due to
broken to overcast skies. Virga showers and light rain is also
pushing in from the west across southeast California according to
the latest MRMS radar returns. Cloudier skies and moistening
conditions will continue to push eastward into tonight, with the
latest HRRR run suggesting virga or a few light showers pushing
across southcentral AZ during the overnight hours tonight.
This influx of moisture is due to remnants of tropical cyclone
Jova that sits well offshore of the southern California coast
combined with troughing seen on water vapor satellite pushing
inland across southern California. As this moisture pushes in from
the west, convective activity will be on the rise going through
the middle of the week.
Ensemble guidance indicates PWAT`s in the range of 1.50-1.75"
extending from the Colorado River Valley eastward into Phoenix by
Tuesday morning. As troughing continues to dislodge the
subtropical ridge southward, a mid-level jet will move across
central AZ on Monday night, which will provide the best chances
for shower and thunderstorm activity at least across the lower
deserts. Otherwise, the favorable dynamic and thermodynamic
conditions will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm
activity across the higher terrain beginning tomorrow and lasting
through Tuesday. The thermodynamic profiles may not be realized
as well due broken to overcast skies Monday and Tuesday such that
most activity will be confined to higher terrain areas across
southcentral AZ.
Looking at storm intensity metrics, the latest HREF depicts a
tongue of 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE extending from southwest AZ into
southcentral AZ during the overnight hours on Monday, which is in
phase with the highest chances for shower and thunderstorm activity
across the lower deserts. Otherwise, instability metrics remains
limited to a couple hundred J/kg CAPE across higher terrain areas
through Monday. Strong winds from downdraft potential remains
limited for Monday, with a 10-30% of 35 mph gusts or greater
across higher terrain areas of Gila and Pinal Counties. However,
a return signature of 10-30% of 35 mph gusts or greater during the
favored overnight period across lower desert areas of Pinal and
Maricopa Counties, so will have to keep an eye on how guidance
evolves heading into tomorrow night.
Temperatures during the early week looks to cool back more
towards normal due to the increasing cloud coverage and moisture
levels. Thus, today is likely (highest likelihood of another 110+
day is tomorrow around 30%) the last 110+ degree day for the year
as the mid- level subtropical ridge doesn`t begin building back
into the region until late into the upcoming weekend. By that
point, September 19th is the latest on record of any day observing
a 110+ degree day in Phoenix.
The pattern will evolve more into a zonal type flow regime as the
persistent sub-tropical ridge retreats southward of the region
going into the end of the week. By that point ridging offshore
will move eastward across the West Coast and eventually across
the Desert Southwest by the middle of next weekend. Ensembles
remain in good agreement on this pattern evolution into early next
week. Thus, drier conditions are expected to develop mid-week
onward, with temperatures beginning to generally warm above normal
going through this upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0015Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Winds will continue to prevail from a west to northwest direction
into the evening hours with gusts up to 20kts, occasionally
reaching as high as 25 kts with any virga showers. Speeds will
subside significantly through the overnight and morning hours aob
8 kts. Winds will remain from a westerly component through the
rest of the period with no easterly shift anticipated during the
overnight and early morning hours, with the exception of KIWA
where winds are likely to switch out of the southeast for a period
of time. Otherwise, another round of gusty winds is anticipated
Monday afternoon out of the west with gusts as high as 20-25 kts
at times. SCT-BKN CIGS aoa 15 kft will prevail through the period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
At KIPL, north to northwest winds will continue through this
evening before settling more out of the west overnight tonight and
becoming more light and variable during the day on Monday. At
KBLH, north to northwest winds with speeds up to 15 kts will
continue through early this evening before diminishing to less
than 10 kts overnight tonight into the day on Monday. Winds on
Monday afternoon will generally be out of the west. SCT-BKN CIGS
aoa 15 kft will prevail through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The well-above normal temperatures will persist today with gradually
increasing moisture over the next few days. MinRH values today of 10-
15% over the eastern districts to around 20% in southeast California
will improve to 20-25% areawide on Monday while considerable clouds
move across the region. MaxRHs will follow a similar trend, with
values between 25-45% Sunday night to 45-70% by Monday night. This
increase in moisture will result in increased chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity starting Monday, with the highest chances (20-
30%) over the far eastern districts. Rain chances increase further
heading into Tuesday. Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies,
with occasional afternoon upslope breeziness. Temperatures start to
trend downwards towards more seasonal levels throughout next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs:
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
---- ------- ---- ---------
Sep 10 111 in 1990 114 in 1979 113 in 1971
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for
AZZ530>556-559>562.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
CAZ562>567-569-570.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Young/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...18