Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/09/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
High pressure is still situated to our southwest today but is
slowly shifting westward, allowing northwest flow and moisture to
return. Dry and warm conditions will persist for the rest of the
afternoon and evening as subsidence aloft dominates. Overnight,
winds become more east/southeasterly allowing a plume of increased
moisture to advect into the area. As a result we could see some
low clouds by tomorrow morning, but should clear out as we head
towards the afternoon.
Storm chances re-enter the forecast Saturday evening as flow aloft
increases and a 500mb shortwave crosses into the Panhandles.
Models are in fair agreement that a swath of 1500-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon with approximately 30-35
kts of bulk shear in place. Quality low and mid-level theta-e
advection in conjunction with the shortwave should help
invigorate the atmosphere and help initiate convection off the
Rockies in New Mexico tomorrow afternoon, with additional
development possible closer to the northwest TX-NM border after 5
PM. Capping could become a detriment to this activity as it
reaches our western zones, possibly due to cloud cover if it
lingers later into the day. Regardless, elevated instability
should be able to fuel this ragged complex of storms as it makes
its way eastward. This would pose a risk for severe weather
mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts. The western TX and OK
Panhandle look to take the brunt, but there is a possibility that
this activity survives further east into the central Panhandles.
Latest run of the 18z HRRR however keeps bulk of storms south of
I-40. Another complex of storms developing over northern KS could
move south overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, possibly
impacting our north and eastern counties. This complex would also
have a threat for damaging winds, as well as heavy rain with
PWATs over 1 inch currently forecast and training storms possible.
We`ll have to monitor trends for these rounds of potential storms
for placement, strength, and timing moving forward.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
It looks like a potentially wet period from Sunday through Thursday.
A northwest flow aloft will persist and several short wave troughs
will move through this flow across the Panhandles. A cold front
moves through the Panhandles early Monday morning. Highs behind
this front are expected to remain below average all the way through
Thursday. Sunday`s thunderstorm chances look to be somewhat
conditional on what happens on Saturday. If we get a lot of
convection Saturday night, then this could keep the atmosphere from
becoming too unstable for Sunday and therefore, it may keep the
thunderstorm chances down on Sunday. If there aren`t as many
thunderstorms on Saturday, then we could see a better chance of
thunderstorms on Sunday. The shear increases on Sunday and if the
atmosphere can get unstable, we could see a chance of severe
thunderstorms.
Low level winds will remain mainly from an upslope direction Monday
through Thursday, which will help to keep low level moisture in the
area. This low level moisture will be fuel for thunderstorms each
day as upper level short waves move this way in the northwest flow.
Hard to say if we will have any severe weather Monday through
Thursday at this point. But if we happen to get a well-timed short
wave along with instability, then the directional shear would likely
be there for a storm to get strong to severe.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites throughout the TAF
period. Winds will be easterly becoming more southeasterly at 5-15
kts. With the exception of a few to sct high clouds, skies should
remain mostly clear.
Meccariello
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 63 94 64 92 / 0 0 20 30
Beaver OK 60 92 60 87 / 0 0 30 60
Boise City OK 58 91 59 88 / 0 10 30 30
Borger TX 65 97 67 94 / 0 10 20 40
Boys Ranch TX 63 95 63 95 / 0 10 20 20
Canyon TX 63 94 64 92 / 0 10 30 20
Clarendon TX 67 93 67 90 / 0 10 30 40
Dalhart TX 58 92 57 90 / 0 10 20 20
Guymon OK 59 92 60 88 / 0 10 30 40
Hereford TX 63 95 63 94 / 0 10 30 20
Lipscomb TX 61 93 62 88 / 0 0 30 50
Pampa TX 64 91 64 87 / 0 10 30 40
Shamrock TX 66 94 65 89 / 10 0 20 40
Wellington TX 68 96 67 92 / 10 0 20 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
619 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Key Messages:
- Patchy to areas of fog in the valleys and cranberry bogs tonight.
- Scattered showers and possibly some storms from Saturday night
through Tuesday.
- Frost potential Tuesday and Wednesday nights in central and
north-central Wisconsin.
- Near- to above-normal temperatures on Saturday and then
temperatures cool to near to below-normal from Sunday through
Wednesday. Temperatures then warm to near- and above-normal
for the end of next week.
For tonight, skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy. While
winds will be light and variable, soundings suggest that the low-
level moisture will be rather shallow. As a result, thinking any
fog development in the valley and cranberry bogs will range from
patchy to areas.
On Saturday, high pressure will provide mostly sunny skies during
the morning and early afternoon and then the clouds will gradually
increase during the mid- and late afternoon. High temperatures
range from the mid-70s to lower 80s. Winds will be light from the
south and southwest.
From Saturday night into Sunday, a cold front will move southeast
through the area. Both the convergence and instability along this
front is rather weak, so only expect some scattered showers and
storms with rainfall totals generally on the light side. In the
wake of this front, much cooler temperatures will move into the
region. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid-60s to
upper 70s, and then only be in the 60s for Monday through
Wednesday. The combination of cyclonic flow aloft and steep low-
level lapse rates will result in some instability showers. Like
with the rain associated with the cold front on Saturday night and
Sunday, rain totals look to be light.
On both Tuesday and Wednesday nights, skies will be mostly clear
and the winds will be light and variable. This will result in good
radiative conditions which will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s in central and north-central Wisconsin. This will result
in the potential for some frost development.
For the remainder of the week, the western ridge will slowly build
into the region. This will bring near- to above-normal
temperatures back into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
The main aviation concern will be fog potential early Saturday
morning, especially for KLSE. Skies have been clearing this
afternoon with light S/SE winds expected overnight. RAP soundings
have shown some wind just off the surface, but recent cycles have
been indicating somewhat lighter low-level flow. This would
suggest increasing potential (50-70% chance) for LIFR
ceilings/visibility at KLSE early Saturday. As a result, have
begun to trend towards that scenario for this update.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through Saturday with some
increase in mid/high clouds and any showers holding off until near
or beyond the end of the TAF period. South winds will trend SW/W
by late Saturday afternoon at KRST as a front approaches.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1159 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023
.AVIATION...
Steady drying within the background of prevailing northerly flow
will offer a window of clear sky at least from PTK northward
overnight into the morning period Saturday. Less confidence in both
timing and duration of clearing in the Detroit corridor, as
satellite trends suggest renewed expansion of stratus off lake Huron
may ultimately solidily the existing MVFR stratus deck and/or bring
additional development into Saturday. This corridor will carry a
more pessimistic outlook on clearing potential attm. A brief higher
coverage of diurnal cu also becomes possible at FNT/PTK Saturday
afternoon. Winds remain modest from the north through the taf
period.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High overnight. Medium Saturday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023
DISCUSSION...
An upper short wave now located over the MO/IL border will undergo
amplification as it pushes south across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile, gradual deepening of the
northern stream trough across the plains will drive a slow moving
low to mid level ridge across Lower Mi during the course of the
weekend. Sfc high pressure will remain centered across northern
Michigan through Saturday, maintaining a light NNE winds across Se
Mi.
Current sfc analysis and satellite data indicate a very autumn-like
airmass across the region as ongoing shallow cold air advection has
been maintaining a healthy strato cu field across Lower MI, with
contribution from the moisture flux off Lake Huron supporting some
light showers/drizzle at times. Some degree of partial clearing is
possible tonight as drier air nudges in from the north, most notable
across the Tri Cities region. Both the NAM and RAP do however
indicate that enhanced convergence off Lake Huron will support some
light showers into the Port Huron area, with some very light showers
and/or drizzle continuing across portions of the thumb and metro
Detroit. Expect the cloud cover will mitigate the degree of
nighttime cooling, supporting mins mainly in the 50s. The
persistence of the shallow cool air, the depth of the inversion and
moisture flux off Lake Huron will sustain a fair amount of cloud
cover into the afternoon with the exception of the Saginaw Valley
region. There is a better potential for some breaks in the clouds in
the afternoon, which will support high temps closer toward the 70
degree mark.
High pressure will sustain dry conditions on Sunday. Persistent
amplification of the upstream northern stream trough as it moves
toward the western Great Lakes on Monday will force a deep layer
tropospheric frontal boundary into Lower Mi, supporting the next
chance for showers. There is respectable agreement among the medium
range model suite which indicates some phasing between this wave and
a fast moving southern stream short wave early next week with the
upper wave evolving into a deep cut off low over the Great Lakes
region by the middle of next week. This will result in seasonally
cool temperatures with high chances for showers through at least the
first half of next week.
MARINE...
Expansive cloud cover with occasional drizzle has held on across
much of the region as high pressure has been slow to expand over the
central lakes. High pressure will gradually increase its influence
through this evening before drifting overhead through the coming
weekend. This maintains generally lighter northerly winds to finish
out the week with a more active/unsettled pattern not redeveloping
until the first half of next work week.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......KDK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
728 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
After a dry and pleasant weekend with high temperatures in the mid
70s to low 80s, a cold front will dive into the region to bring a
chance for showers Monday into Tuesday. The parent upper trough will
then linger across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes through late
week, driving sub seasonable temperatures and mitigating chances for
precipitation.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Stratocumulus deck lingers early this evening from the northwest
tip of Illinois southeast to near Mattoon, and has been showing a
southwest nudges of late. A few sprinkles were also seen on radar
between Pontiac and Bloomington, though they have been weakening
as cloud heights have been lifting. 850 mb relative humidity plots
off the RAP model suggest some constriction will take place late
evening and overnight, with the early vestiges of this being seen
over the Chicago metro at this hour, though skies are expected to
remain at least partly cloudy in our forecast area overnight.
Temperatures appear on track to fall into the mid to upper 50s, so
no changes were made in that regard.
Geelhart
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
------------------------- [Key Messages] -------------------------
1. Mostly cloudy skies to linger into tomorrow afternoon,
particularly north of a Macomb to Robinson line.
2. 60% chance of rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, along a
cold front Monday-Tuesday.
3. High temperatures in the 70s, and possibly even upper 60s in
spots, mid to late next work week.
-------------------------- [Discussion] --------------------------
A weak upper disturbance will continue diving towards the SSE across
Illinois through tonight, with shortwave ridging finally building in
its wake to bring a return of some sunshine at least west of I-55 by
tomorrow afternoon when temperatures are forecast to climb a couple
degrees more than today - into the mid to upper 70s (might we have a
few sites hit 80?). Sunday, we stand a better (~50-60%) chance of
warming to 80+ degF across much of the CWA as we start to feel some
weak warm advection from the WSW ahead of the next system which will
slowly sink south out of Manitoba and Ontario, dragging a cold front
across central Illinois sometime late Monday-Tuesday. Ahead of this
front, the deterministic models are each depicting some QPF, and
about 80-90% of the LREF has measurable precipitation falling at
some point between Monday morning and Tuesday evening. Even NBM,
which has had a bit of a dry bias during the extended forecast
period at times the past several weeks, suggests 70-80% 48-hour
precip probabilities for the period ending at 7 AM Wednesday -
suggesting that it`s more a matter of when, rather than if, it`s
going to rain at some point early next work week. Widespread
significant precipitation amounts appear unlikely, however, with NBM
suggesting roughly 40%, 25%, and 10-15% chances for more than 0.25,
0.5, and 1 inches of rain, respectively.
NBM has come up somewhat on thunder chances, suggesting 12-hour
probabilities will peak around 20-30% ahead of the cold front Monday
night across our west, and then Tuesday late morning-early afternoon
across our southeast. Despite having to go to NBM`s 90th percentile
to find surface CAPE values of 200-250+ J/kg of SBCAPE, the 35-45 kt
of EBWD from GFS forecast soundings may prove sufficient to sustain
some stronger updrafts capable of generating charge separation if
there`s any elevated instability that climbs into the HGZ.
Definitely not expecting widespread thunderstorms or anything
severe, but the infrequent flashes depicted by the deterministic
ECMWF seems like a plausible solution depending on the timing and
strength of the front.
The lack of appreciable discrepancies among ensemble groups on WPC`s
cluster page suggests the low resolution ensemble system (LREF) -
which, to be fair, is generally under-dispersive - is in general
agreement in the synoptic-scale upper pattern throughout the
extended forecast period, with the first sign of substantial
ambiguity not appearing until around day 7 when both the (1) depth
and (2) rate of eastward translation of the upper trough look
different among clusters. Thus, confidence is fairly high that a
west to northwest flow regime will maintain fall-like temperatures
and mitigate precipitation chances mid to late next work week. The
average highs for our climate sites (i.e., Peoria, Springfield, and
Lincoln) next week ranges from 79 to 82 degF, so there`s a fair
chance we`ll have multiple days (Tuesday through Thursday look the
coolest at this time) next week with sub-normal temperatures. In
fact, NBM suggests around a 25-40% chance that highs will fail to
reach 70 degF across most of the area on Wednesday, which at this
point looks like the coolest day of the week - though that will
depend on cloud cover. Enjoy the foretaste of fall!
Bumgardner
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Area of MVFR ceilings over northeast Illinois has reached as far
southwest as near KCMI early this evening. Some lifting of
ceilings is expected, but will include a TEMPO period there to
start. Guidance suggests potential for more MVFR ceilings or
visibilities toward sunrise, though coverage does not appear to be
as widespread as the earlier runs. NBM probabilities of
visibilities around 5SM or lower are around 30% near KPIA, while
HREF ensembles highlight 35-50% chance of ceilings below 3000 feet
from KPIA-KCMI. Will keep KSPI/KDEC areas VFR through the period,
with TEMPO periods of lower ceilings or visibilities elsewhere in
the 09-13Z time frame.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Key Messages:
- Precipitation chances increase again later Saturday and
continue through Monday.
- Above normal temperatures through Saturday, then below normal
temperatures Sunday through Friday.
After early morning showers have pushed southeast, dry conditions
have developed under cloudless (not clear) skies. Smoke
concentration at both the surface and and through 4km has been
reduced... with HRRR guidance suggesting it`s been cut by about
60%.
Under the cloudless skies, temps have managed low to mid-80s - a
couple degrees higher than 24 hours prior. Dewpoints have climbed
5-10 degrees. Winds are slow.
Upper air analysis shows the departing shortwave responsible for
the showers continuing southeast with the ridge axis over the
Panhandle of Nebraska. Pre-frontal showers are possible mid-day.
The cold front will help flatten the ridge over the next 24 hours,
pushing into the CWA by Saturday afternoon. The front will help
kick up some thunderstorm activity with best chances in central
Nebraska. Lapse rates of 7.5 - 9 C/km and a handsome hodo suggest
supercells early with a chance of 1" hail and 60mph winds. Upscale
growth into a line / MCV is expected with current CAM runs
suggesting it develops just west of the CWA. Best chances of
thunderstorms will be from 5pm to 10pm.
Behind the wave, much cooler conditions are anticipated for Sunday
and early next week with highs on Sunday impacted by lingering
shower activity as the front slows dramatically. Heaviest rains
will be found in the southwest portion of the area with totals of
0.7 to 1.0" possible through Monday morning.
The H5 trof remains in place through at least Thursday with high
temperatures remaining 5-10 degrees behind seasonal norms through
the work week. Lows in the 40s are expected during the coldest
mornings and no 30s are found in the grids as of yet. The most
recent year that Omaha fell into the 30s in the first half of
September was 2007.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
VFR conditions overnight tonight continuing through Saturday.
There will be a few showers that pass over northeast Nebraska
Saturday morning around 13-15Z, but with high bases around FL090,
not expecting impacts to visibility if showers do impact KOFK.
Expect sct to bkn high clouds with winds out of the south during
the day on Saturday. Another weak front will bring high-base
showers and thunderstorms through Saturday night. Timing is still
uncertain, but did give an idea of timing for KOFK with models
averaging out around 00-03Z. Even less confident that storms will
even make it to KOMA or KLNK, much less timing, so have left
storms out of the TAFs for these two terminals for now.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
434 PM MST Fri Sep 8 2023
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical high pressure will strengthen and move over Arizona
today, leading to well-above normal temperatures through this
weekend. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for Saturday and
Sunday due to the potential for record breaking temperatures and
HeatRisk reaching "Major" levels. By next week, temperatures will
begin to trend downwards, while rain chances increase, primarily
over south-central Arizona.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Strong upper-level high pressure currently located over New Mexico
is expected to strengthen and move over Arizona today. This will
allow for temperatures over the next few days to continue their
upward trajectory. In the meantime, temperatures today across the
lower deserts will range between 106-111F, brining "Moderate"
HeatRisk to much of our CWA. The high temperature forecast for
Phoenix today is 111F, which would surpass the previous daily
record of 110F set in 1979. If this were to come to fruition,
Phoenix would also tie the record, for most number of days in a
year with highs 110+F at 53 days set in 2020.
Mid-level moisture over the Desert Southwest has lead to some
morning and early afternoon mid-level clouds and virga across
parts of south-central and southwest Arizona. Due to this
moisture, the latest HRRR runs indicates virga and light shower
activity continuing this afternoon, mainly over the high terrain
north and east of the Phoenix metro. Limited low-level moisture
will yield stable atmospheric conditions, inhibiting the
development of organized convective activity over these areas.
Heading into the weekend, the aforementioned high pressure will
settle over Arizona, bringing abnormally hot conditions to the
region and ushering in the return of "Major" HeatRisk. Global
ensembles have H5 heights pushing towards 594 dam, which will allow
for temperatures to continue to run well above normal, potentially
reaching record levels for some locations. Forecasted daytime highs
currently range between 107-113F across the lower deserts for each
day. The forecasted highs for Phoenix for both Saturday (113F)
and Sunday (112F) are on track to exceed the daily records of 111F
set in 2021 and 1990 respectively. As mentioned above, the all-
time record for number of 110+F highs in year stands at 53 days.
If the record is not tied today, the NBM gives Phoenix a 91%
chance of tying the record Saturday, with a 76% chance of breaking
it on Sunday. Otherwise, if the record were to be tied with today,
there is a good chance it will fall Saturday.
In response to these unseasonably hot conditions, an Excessive Heat
Warning is in effect for Saturday and Sunday for much of our CWA. If
you plan on being outdoors, remember to take frequent breaks and to
stay hydrated. If plans are flexible, it is recommended that any
outdoor activity be limited to the morning and evening hours.
As we look towards next week, model clusters are in good agreement
that the subtropical high will begin to weaken and push
southward. This will allow for regional heights aloft to decrease,
leading to a cooling trend for our area. NBM MaxT forecasts have
daytime highs for Monday ranging between 105-110F, falling to
100-105F for the remainder of the week. Due to Hurricane Jova, and
a weak surface trough projected to set up over southwest Arizona,
moisture levels are anticipated to increase for the front half of
next week. The GEFS shows PWAT values rising to 1.3-1.6" by
Monday. In response to the increase in column moisture, PoPs over
south-central Arizona are expected to increase as well. Rain
chances currently range between 10-20% Monday, rising to 20-50%
Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances after that will be stifled as a
much drier air mass moves over the desert southwest for the latter
half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2334Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Expect westerly surface winds to be long lived and continue until
close to sunrise at KPHX before light easterly develops. The other
TAF sites will see an earlier onset of typical nocturnal
downvalley/drainage winds. Some non-TAF sites closer to north-
south oriented drainages may see somewhat enhanced northerly
drainage winds tonight. The onset of westerly/upvalley during the
day is anticipated during the first half of the afternoon though
there are some model indications of an earlier onset than that (as
early as 16Z). As for sky cover, expect mid-tropospheric clouds
with bases of FL140-180 to wax and wane through the forecast
period (BKN layers most likely tonight). Expect some pockets of
virga with that cloudiness.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Expect familiar nocturnal wind patterns tonight. Prior to
midnight, expect variable amounts of mid clouds (bases FL120-160)
containing pockets of virga followed by clearing. During the day,
light northerly winds are expected to develop by late morning
(quite a bit earlier at KBLH) but remaining light overall.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Well-above normal temperatures along with dry conditions will
prevail over the weekend. MinRH values will only run between 10-20%
through Sunday, with poor to modest overnight recoveries expected as
MaxRH values range between 25-45%. Winds will continue to follow
familiar diurnal tendencies, with occasional afternoon breeziness.
Moisture levels are slated to increase over the front half of
next week, leading to an increase in RH values, as well as
increasing chances for rainfall. Best chances for rain look to be
Tuesday and Wednesday over the high terrain of the eastern
districts. Temperatures are anticipated to return to near normal
levels by next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record highs:
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
---- ------- ---- ---------
Sep 8 110 in 1979 115 in 1979 114 in 2018
Sep 9 111 in 2021 113 in 1990 115 in 1968
Sep 10 111 in 1990 114 in 1979 113 in 1971
Sep 11 112 in 1990 116 in 1990 115 in 1971
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM MST Sunday
for AZZ530>556-559>562.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday
for CAZ562>567-569-570.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leffel/RW
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...RW
CLIMATE...18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
621 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
Today should be the hottest day we see for a while. The upper level
high and 850 thermal ridge will start to shift further west after
today. They will still impact our temperatures over the weekend,
bringing hotter than normal and potentially record breaking
temperatures, but the highs should drop a few degrees from today to
tomorrow. A "fun fact" for today, Abilene had broken their record
high for the day by noon, which leaves plenty of time for continued
heating to shatter the old record. We do have the possibility of
storms this afternoon, mainly in the northern Big Country. A cold
front will be to our northwest, progressing towards our area, which
could fire up a few storms. There will also be a few upper level
disturbances and a front that will likely develop some storms to our
east/northeast. Unfortunately, we sit in the middle of these two
systems and models show storms dying as they enter our counties.
The cold front mentioned above, is expected to progress further
south tomorrow and stall over our area. The NAMNEST has the front
progressing almost entirely through our area. The HRRR has the front
stalling further north. The effect on temperatures will likely be
minimal, but it will effect rain chances. High res models do not
have a good agreement on rain chances for tomorrow. Some show
nothing and others show a line of scattered storms in our area along
the boundary. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with
coverage of tomorrows storms, but any storms that do develop will
have the potential for microbursts and damaging winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
The mid-level ridge that has hounded much of west Texas for the past
several days will continue to weaken Saturday night through Sunday.
Despite the weakening, one more day of temperatures near 100 degrees
can be expected on Sunday. A weak mid-level impulse rotating around
the east side of the ridge will allow some late afternoon
thunderstorms to develop on Sunday. Any storms that develop could
produce locally damaging microburst winds late Sunday into Sunday
night.
For the early to middle part of next week, a significant pattern
shift is expected as a strong trough will push down from central
Canada. This will help to push a cold front down through the
central Plains and west Texas by Tuesday and stall across west
central Texas through at least mid-week. As a result much cooler
temperatures can be expected with highs in the 80s and low 90s. But
the bigger story is the increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. This is still 4-6 days out,
but models are showing fairly good agreement on multiple rounds of
rain, with some locally heavy amounts possible. For now, stay tuned
through the weekend for the latest information.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023
VFR next 24 hours. A weak cold front may shift wind to the
northwest to north 10 KTS or less at KABI and KBBD mid morning
into early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday
afternoon across the terminals, but potential is too low to
include.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 75 101 73 99 / 10 20 30 40
San Angelo 74 102 73 102 / 0 20 20 30
Junction 72 103 71 102 / 0 30 30 50
Brownwood 74 102 72 98 / 10 30 30 40
Sweetwater 76 100 74 100 / 10 20 20 40
Ozona 73 100 72 100 / 0 10 10 20
Brady 75 102 72 100 / 0 30 40 50
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-
Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Crockett-
Schleicher-Sutton.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for Mason-San Saba.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...04