Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/23/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1013 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through Wednesday,
resulting in a period of pleasant and mainly dry weather. A low
pressure system will bring periods of rain for Thursday and
Friday. Drier conditions return as we head into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 714 PM EDT Tuesday...Main change to forecast was to
increase temperatures on Lake Champlain as the lake is holding
onto heat well this evening. Otherwise, skies may not clear out
completely in Vermont tonight but if anything they will be
lingering high clouds and won`t affect much here at the surface.
Still expecting lows tonight in the upper 30s to lower 50s but
perhaps around 60 F on the lake. Some fog is possible tonight in
the typical valley spots as winds calm. Previous discussion
below:
Previous Discussion...Following a terrific late summer day,
mostly clear skies will result in temperatures quickly falling after
sundown. Breezy north winds will also quickly subside as the
boundary layer decouples and 1024 mb surface high pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes. So it should turn out to be a rather excellent
radiational cooling night, despite CAMs depicting some high clouds
spilling over the 600 Dm upper ridge that is currently parked across
the center third of CONUS. So did go with the colder MOS guidance to
have temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the
typical colder hollows, mid to upper 40s for most other locations
except for lower 50s across the lower St Lawrence valley and
Champlain valley. Somewhat more uncertain is the coverage of
radiational fog. Given how deep the mixing got this afternoon with
RAP and HRRR soundings showing mixing up to 800mb (and hence the 15
to 20 mph gusts), the boundary layer is quite dry with afternoon
minimum dew points in the upper 40s with even some mid 40s readings.
While we expect crossover temperatures to be realized, current
thinking is that fog should be limited to climatologically favored
locations such as Montpelier and Saranac Lake. l sunshine, light
winds and dew points in the 40s and 50s. Expect highs mainly in the
70s, except 60s for the high terrain.
Clouds should be on the increase overnight Wednesday. But contingent
on how quickly they move in, there is potential for radiational
cooling to exert its effect with the light winds and mostly clear
skies. This is especially true if the lower dew points are realized
during the daytime. So it could be the case where temperatures
plummet quickly after sundown, which is now before 8 PM, and then
stabilize or even rise slightly after midnight. It also looks like
any rain should hold off until after sunrise on Thursday. So blended
in some of the colder MOS guidance to yield overnight lows in the
mid 40s in the colder hollows, but lower to mid 50s across the
Champlain and St Lawrence valleys. Also note that these forecast
lows may happen early in the overnight hours as opposed t
Heading into Wednesday, our region continues to be under the
influence of cool, dry northwest flow. While some guidance shows the
potential for a few showers to make it into the Adirondacks by
Wednesday afternoon, the potential remains rather low so opted to
keep the PoPs under slight chance (i.e. less than 15 percent). With
the surface high pressure becoming centered over our region, any
showers should be brief and confined to the terrain. Forecast
soundings show rather deep mixing up to 800mb although with the
boundary layer winds being light at 5 to 10 kt, it is a little
uncertain how deep we can mix. It will certainly not be as gusty as
on Tuesday. So Wednesday is arguably more comfortable for outdoor
activities even though Tuesday was a really nice day to be outside.
Temperature forecast is a little tricky with 850mb temperatures
being relatively cool at +9C to +11C (25th percentile per the SPC
sounding climatology for Albany, NY) but 925mb temperatures
projected to be +15 to +18C (median range for the same sounding
climatology). There is certainly potential to mix down some drier
dew points from aloft, and for warmer temperatures downslope of the
Adirondacks and Green Mountains due to adiabatic warming. Finally,
high res guidance shows some smoke from western Canada wildfires
making it to the Northeast on Wednesday. However, it will be aloft
so no impacts to the air quality near the surface. It might make for
a nice sunrise or sunset. No matter how one slices it, Wednesday
looks to be the pick of the week with plentiful sunshine, light
winds and dew points in the 40s and 50s. Expect highs mainly in the
70s, except 60s for the high terrain.
Clouds should be on the increase overnight Wednesday. But contingent
on how quickly they move in, there is potential for radiational
cooling to exert its effect with the light winds and mostly clear
skies. This is especially true if the lower dew points are realized
during the daytime. So it could be the case where temperatures
plummet quickly after sundown, which is now before 8 PM, and then
stabilize or even rise slightly after midnight. It also looks like
any rain should hold off until after sunrise on Thursday. So blended
in some of the colder MOS guidance to yield overnight lows in the
mid 40s in the colder hollows, but lower to mid 50s across the
Champlain and St Lawrence valleys. Also note that these forecast
lows may happen early in the overnight hours as opposed to just
prior to daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 356 PM EDT Tuesday...We remain on track to see widespread rain
during this period, especially Thursday night. During the day,
temperatures should rise nicely before clouds thicken, with
locations over our southern and western zones more likely to see an
early high temperature before cooling a bit into the 60s. This
temperature and cloud pattern will be attributed to a mid-level warm
front approaching from the southwest while an upper level shortwave
rounding the big ridge over the middle of the US approaches from the
northwest. While a stronger upper level wave passes to our south and
west over Pennsylvania, progged 700 millibar vertical motion over
our region looks ample. This isentropic lift will initially produce
only widely scattered precipitation with dry air in place. However,
in combination with low level southerly flow expect skies to quickly
cloud over, but height falls and increasing surface convergence will
help precipitation blossom.
While a general thunder and marginal excessive rainfall risks do
exist during this period, these risks appear quite low at this time.
Near surface winds will tend to be southeasterly, which will tend to
bring in marine air and keep our air mass fairly cool and stability
high to limit convective potential. For now, have continued to have
a slight chance of thunder overnight in our southern areas,
consistent with some very elevated instability at the top of a
nearly isothermal, saturated low level atmosphere. If frontogenesis
was to linger in a particular area long enough, we could see some
heavier rainfall amounts than currently indicated. Some ensemble
members of global model guidance show strips of 1 to 2" over 6
hours, for instance. However, hourly rainfall rates in this setup
are unlikely to support flash flooding. It will bear watching though
in the coming days.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 356 PM EDT Tuesday...Widespread rain will tend to become
scattered showers on Friday with cloudy skies holding temperatures
in the 60s, with best odds of coolest conditions in eastern Vermont
where low clouds and occasional rain showers are most likely to
linger all day. After a lousy stretch of weather late in the week,
another batch of dry Canadian air should return by Saturday evening
leading to dry weather for Sunday and Monday. Perhaps another
weather system arrives on Tuesday, but predictability is too low to
offer anything other than a general chance of showers at this time.
Temperatures through the period will be below normal due to a
combination of below normal upper level heights and northerly
low level flow.
With temperatures dependent somewhat on timing of the responsible
cold front, there is some model spread in how warm of a day Saturday
will be as well as convective chances. Given the uncertainty, have a
slight chance of thunder during the afternoon nearly areawide for
the scenario in which a boundary moves through during peak heating.
However, looking at global model clusters, the amplitude of the
upper level trough that helps push the front through explains the
uncertainty more than timing - there are some warmer solutions and
some cooler ones. The warmer ones, which are dominated by EPS
members, are associated with enough instability to see thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period. Some patchy IFR possible at KSLK and KMPV from
06-12z due to Valley fog. Mostly clear skies with a few passing
clouds with winds less than 5 kts or calm overnight and W around
5 knots aft 12z.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Plattsburgh ASOS located at the Plattsburgh International
Airport is back in service, however, the St. Johnsbury, Vermont,
site is now down for the foreseeable future.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Chai
NEAR TERM...Chai/SLW/Storm
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Chai/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
904 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will advance down through the region on Wednesday.
High pressure then rebuilds for the latter half of the week,
with another front possible early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Very few changes were needed for the late evening update. Lows
were nudged up a degree or so in a few spots, especially over
Southeast Georgia and along the coast given incoming guidance
is trending a tad higher with temperatures overnight.
Satellite and surface observation show a backdoor cold front
working south across eastern North Carolina and will drop south
into parts of the Midlands and Pee Dee shortly. The front is on
target to push south of the Santee River just before daybreak
Wednesday. Low-level moisture pooling ahead of the front
coupled with some weak QG-forcing will likely support a band of
showers/tstms with and just behind the wind shift, most of which
will largely remain just offshore. Pops through sunrise will
range from 20% as far west as a Saint George-Walterboro- Hilton
Head line to 40% along the Charleston County coast per the
latest trends noted in both the RAP and H3R. It will will be
warm and humid night with lows from the mid 70s well inland and
across areas adjacent to the Santee River to the lower 80s at
the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large upper level ridge will remain the
dominant player across the CONUS through the mid week period with
590+ DM heights stretching across the southeast states. Surface high
pressure will be building across the northeast/mid Atlantic region,
helping to drive a backdoor front down through the southeast (in
very wedge like fashion). There will be a narrow corridor of QG-
forcing for ascent along the boundary sliding down through the
region which might present a narrow window of opportunity for some
shower activity on Wednesday, particularly late morning and through
the afternoon across the southeast Georgia counties with the aid of
daytime heating. Otherwise, with the shallow "cooler" air spreading
into the region, temperatures will ease back into the middle to
upper 80s for highs...to the lower 90s across the far southern
Georgia counties. But the key will be the lowering surface dewpoints
which will make it feel a bit more comfortable than in recent days.
Thursday through Friday: Surface high pressure and modestly drier
air will wedge it`s way down into the southeast and remain the main
players to finish up the week. Dry weather anticipated. Daytime max
temperatures will creep back into the upper 80s to lower 90s for
Thursday and back into the middle 90s for Friday, cooler near the
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Anomalously strong upper level ridge is expected to begin weakening
while retrograding into the southwest CONUS during the latter half
of the weekend, and further weakening next week. This...in response
to strong short-wave energy digging through the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast CONUS and eventually carving out some modest troughing
through the southeast states next week. Franklin will be passing up
through the western Atlantic late this weekend through early next
week. At this juncture, we are not expecting any direct impacts,
although we might eventually get some stronger northeasterly flow
and bigger swells. Will continue to monitor.
As far as details: Another boundary will be pressing into the region
by Saturday before stalling across inland areas. Along with
developing troughing aloft, this will lead to a bit more unsettled
conditions than we`ve had in recent times with precip chances
increasing later Saturday and lingering through the first half of
next week. Saturday will be the warmest/hottest day. In fact,
blended guidance continues to paint max temperatures above 100F
across inland areas, especially across southeast Georgia. I`m not
prepared to go that hot just yet, but I will maintain mid to upper
90s in the forecast and a few locations touching 100F. Beyond
Saturday, daytime temperatures should be easing back to around or
even slightly below normal for the Sunday through Tuesday
timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
23/00z TAF discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR for much of the period. A band of mid-level
clouds with cigs BKN050-080 will impact all terminals Wednesday
morning as a backdoor cold front drops south. Isolated to
perhaps scattered showers will accompany the front, but
confidence for any impacts remains too low to justify anything
more then VCSH roughly 10-16z at KCHS/KJZI and 12-18z at KSAV at
this time. Gusty northeast winds will also occur behind the
front with gusts 18-20 kt. Skies will clear late morning into
the afternoon.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will largely dominate
through the rest of the week. A boundary will press into the region
this weekend bringing increasing precip chances. This will result in
possible flight restrictions beginning on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak pressure pattern early will favor a continuation of
light southeasterly winds during the first half of the night,
generally around 10 kt or less. Later tonight, a front will approach
the region from the north, strengthening the pressure gradient
and bringing a northeasterly surge across South Carolina waters
toward daybreak. Winds off the Charleston County coast will
ramp up into the 15-20 knot range by sunrise Wednesday with
gusts approaching Small Craft Advisory levels thereafter. Seas
will average 2-3 feet, then build up to around 4 feet off the
Charleston County coast late tonight.
The pressure gradient will tighten along the mid Atlantic coast and
into the southeast coast Wednesday through Thursday, behind a
boundary that will advance down through the region. This will result
in stronger northeasterly flow and increasing seas across the
coastal waters. Conditions are looking to push Small Craft Advisory
levels, especially in the Georgia outer waters where seas will run
around 6 feet. We will be hoisting a Small Craft Advisory for all
coastal waters beginning Wednesday morning and lasting into
Wednesday night. Winds and seas subside for late week and into the
weekend.
Late weekend into next week: Tropical Cyclone Franklin is expected
to progress northward through the western Atlantic. Higher seas,
stronger swells and stronger northeasterly winds will be a
possibility during this time.
Rip Currents: The combination of gusty northeast winds and NE swell
will lead to a Moderate Risk for rip currents at all of our beaches
on Wednesday. Additionally, longer period swell generated from
distant tropical systems should begin moving through our waters late
this week and into next week, which would bring an elevated risk of
rip currents.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EDT Thursday
for AMZ350-352.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 1 AM EDT Thursday
for AMZ354.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
for AMZ374.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
915 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east of the area tonight. On Wednesday,
low pressure developing over the Upper Midwest will lift a warm
front across the area before it meanders southeast towards the
area through Thursday. The low will push a cold front across the
region Thursday night. High pressure should return over the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
915 pm update...
No forecast changes were needed at this time.
645 pm update...
There no adjustments needed with this evening`s near term
forecast update.
Previous discussion...
Surface high pressure over the area with a large upper high
over the Plains will foster dry weather through tonight with
cloud cover increasing from the northwest. Overnight lows will
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
By Wednesday morning, a shortwave will round the ridge and push
southeast across Lake Erie and into the CWA and most CAMs
portray an initial round of showers/thunderstorms accompanying
this disturbance. Still some uncertainty in how well convection
holds together and how high coverage will be as precip pushes
south throughout the morning, especially since the atmosphere
over the CWA will be well-capped. Maintained slight chance to
chance PoPs with this update, but may be able to highlight a few
areas with higher PoPs in a subsequent update as guidance
continues to align. Any storms would likely be elevated with a
low-end severe threat.
Instability increases Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as
a warm front lifts into the CWA and a LLJ develops along the
lakeshore and especially across far NE OH/NW PA. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the warm
front, however additional storms may develop wherever
boundaries from dissipated early-day convection settle. Despite
the unfavorable diurnal instability, there should be sufficient
lift, moisture, and wind shear for at least semi-organized storms
(perhaps even an MCS if the latest HRRR is correct) to develop
somewhere over or near the CWA and push south late Wednesday
night. PoPs peak across NE OH and NW PA Wednesday night, but a
few models including the NAM have suggested that there`s
potential of convection remaining to the east of the CWA.
Unfortunately, as with many scenarios with this kind of setup,
the outcome will heavily rely on mesoscale features that have
yet to be resolved. Stay tuned for updates and refinements in
the forecast.
As far as hazards go, gusty winds and large hail will be the
main severe weather threats, but there may be a low-end threat
of quick spin-ups if an MCS or QLCS manages to develop.
Regardless of storm mode, flooding will be concern as PWATs
climb to around 2 inches, especially if storms manage to move
parallel to the warm front thanks to the northwest flow aloft.
The 12Z NAM (which tends to run a bit moist) has a strip of
PWATs near record values of 2.5 to near 3 inches across NE OH
and NW PA for a brief period overnight Wednesday. Torrential
rainfall rates are certainly a possibility.
There will be quite a gradient of temperatures across the area
Wednesday: highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across NW OH
with temperatures gradually decreasing to the east; highs will
likely be in the mid to upper 70s across NE OH/NW PA. Warm air
advection will keep temps in the 60s and low to mid 70s
Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances are expected
to impact our CWA Thursday through Thursday night, along the
northeastern periphery of a heat dome and associated strong
mid/upper-level high pressure ridge centered in vicinity of the
southern Great Plains. At the surface, weak net-troughing
accompanying the shortwave disturbances resides in our CWA and a
cold front is still forecast to sweep SE`ward through our region
Thursday night. A tight gradient in 850 mb temperatures is expected
toward the WSW on Thursday and greater cloud cover is expected
farther east, where the influence of the aforementioned shortwave
disturbances should be greater. Late afternoon highs should reach
mainly the lower to mid 80`s in NW PA, the mid 80`s to lower 90`s in
NE OH, and the lower to upper 90`s farther west. The hottest highs
are expected in our I-75 corridor counties. Low-level warm/moist air
advection from the Gulf of Mexico will likely allow surface dew
points to surge into the lower to mid 70`s. Given this high humidity
and trends in our high temperature forecast, issued an Excessive
Heat Watch for western portions of our CWA, along and just east of I-
75. This is where heat indices may reach 105F to 110F for at least
two hours Thursday afternoon into the early evening. Overnight lows
should reach the 60`s to lower 70`s around daybreak on Friday as
weak low-level cold/dry air advection follows the front.
Periodic, scattered, and organized showers/thunderstorms are
expected on Thursday, especially east of I-71, and across our whole
CWA Thursday night as low-level convergence/moist ascent along pre-
frontal surface trough axes and the cold front interact with
moderate to strong MUCAPE amidst moderate to strong deep layer bulk
shear. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dry mid-level air
accompanying an EML combined with steep low-level lapse rates
stemming from diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer should
yield moderate to strong DCAPE during the afternoon through at least
early evening hours of Thursday. Therefore, severe thunderstorms
with damaging convective gusts are possible. Melting levels above
10.5kft AGL should limit the severe hail threat, although can`t rule-
out marginally-severe hail with the strong, rotating updraft of any
supercell. Torrential rainfall is expected with showers/storms given
forecast PWAT`s near 1.5 to 2.0 inches in the warm sector and warm
cumuliform cloud depths exceeding 10kft. Those PWAT values exceed
the 90th percentile in the sounding climatology for nearby upper-air
stations.
Friday through Friday night will also feature NW`erly flow aloft,
embedded shortwave disturbances, and net surface troughing impacting
our CWA as the aforementioned mid/upper-level ridge retrogrades
W`ward slightly. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible,
especially Friday night, when a stronger shortwave trough should
approach from the Upper Great Lakes and atmospheric moisture and
instability, including elevated CAPE, remain sufficient. Late
afternoon highs should reach the upper 70`s to lower 80`s in NW PA
and primarily the 80`s in northern OH. Overnight lows should reach
the 60`s around daybreak Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The strong shortwave trough aloft and accompanying surface trough
axis should advance SE`ward across our CWA on Saturday and be
accompanied by isolated showers/thunderstorms. Late afternoon highs
should reach the 70`s to lower 80`s. Odds favor fair weather
Saturday night through Tuesday as NW`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave troughs persist, yet an expansive surface ridge builds
gradually from the north-central U.S./Upper Great Lakes and is
accompanied by stabilizing subsidence and a drier low-level air mass.
Overnight lows are forecast to reach mainly the 50`s Saturday
through Monday nights. Daytime highs should reach the 70`s on Sunday
and Monday, and the 70`s to lower 80`s on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected for this TAF update tonight
into Wednesday. Mostly clear to fair weather skies are expected. There
is some uncertainty about a complex of storms, maybe a MCS,
rolling out of southeast Michigan into northern Ohio and NW PA
late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. With that
uncertainty, we have not mentioned this potential in the TAFs
with this update. Light northerly to northeasterly winds 5 to 10
knots this evening will become light and variable overnight.
Southerly winds 8 to 12 knots will resume Wednesday morning
through the rest of the TAF period.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in multiple rounds of thunderstorms
Wednesday evening through Thursday. Additional non-VFR possible
in showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are
expected through this weekend. A ridge lingers before a warm front
drifts northeastward across Lake Erie Wednesday through Wednesday
night. Northeasterly to easterly winds veer to southeasterly with
the approach of the warm front. Behind the warm front, winds veer
quickly to southerly and then to southwesterly through Thursday. A
cold front should sweep southeastward across the lake Thursday night
and cause winds to veer to northwesterly and then to northerly by
daybreak on Friday. Primarily northerly to northeasterly winds are
expected for the rest of Friday through this weekend as another
ridge builds gradually from the Canadian Prairies.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-036.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Maines
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Jaszka
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1029 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Key Messages:
-Heat continues today through Thursday; Excessive Heat Warning in
Effect
-Potential for patchy fog Wednesday morning, mainly east
Any signs of the fog and stratus that developed across the area this
morning have all but dissipated, leaving only some low cumulus in
the far southeastern portions of the state. With skies clear and the
boundary layer mixing out early this afternoon, breezy winds have
picked up and temperatures have quickly warmed. Most sites are now
in the upper 80s to low 90s with associated dew points in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Highs are expected to peak in the upper 90s
this afternoon, resulting in heat index values well exceeding
110F. A few AWOS sites in west central Iowa continue to show
erroneous dew point observations, which are resulting in
unrealistic heat index values over that area.
While temperatures will cool as the sun goes down, A/C units will
have little time for recovery tonight as lows only reach the mid 70s
to low 80s. With the amount of moisture present, it is possible we
will see fog and stratus developing again in the early morning hours
and lasting into the mid morning before burning off as the boundary
layer mixes. Deterministic guidance isn`t overly bullish on this
developing, but as mentioned in previous AFDs, the HREF seems to
again be showing a weak signal in its low cloud probability product,
hinting at another night of at least some stratus development. HREF
fog probabilities show a slightly more eastern trend than last
night, putting the most favorable area over east central and eastern
Iowa.
Our heat continues tomorrow, with this being the best chance for the
area to reach triple digit temperatures. Soundings from the NAM,
HRRR and RAP all show a deeply mixed boundary layer with strong
south southwesterly flow resulting in hot and uncomfortable
conditions at the surface. This will likely be the warmest day of
the week, and potentially of the year so far, so it`s important to
not become complacent with your heat safety precautions.
Overnight temperatures tomorrow night and into Thursday will again
be quite warm, with the low temperatures better resembling our
normal high temperature for this time of year.
Thursday`s temperatures become a bit trickier as the upper level
ridge breaks down and a shortwave passes over the area. This will
bring with it a cool front along the northern edge of the ridge,
limiting high temperatures, especially in northern Iowa. Confidence
is low on how far south this cool front will drop into the state and
how soon this will occur. The recent trend in guidance has been
cooler in the north for Thursday, suggesting a slightly earlier
arrival of the boundary. Of course, the arrival of said cool front
is not a cut and dry indicator of temperatures, as insolation and
pooling moisture along the boundary may still result in
uncomfortable conditions as it arrives. Therefore, if cloud cover
can develop along the boundary, it is likely that the lack of
insolation will allow the cold air advection to keep temperatures
more comfortable. Conversely, lack of cloud cover may still result
in 100+ heat indexes.
With the trend in guidance towards cooler temperatures in the north,
went ahead and slightly reduced high temperatures in these areas.
However, due to differences in heat headline criteria between
ourselves and surrounding northern offices, as well as the prolonged
duration of hot temperatures, maintained collaboration by upgrading
the excessive heat watch to a warning through Thursday. Confidence
is low that these northern counties will reach the 105F criteria for
our area but conditions will likely still be uncomfortable. The rest
of the area south of the boundary will still be hot on Thursday with
temperatures in the upper 90s and heat index values over 105F.
Fortunately, some relief is on the horizon. As the cool front passes
through the rest of the area Thursday night, high temperatures will
become slightly more bearable on Friday. However, conditions still
remain dry with only a slight chance for a few showers/storms as the
boundary passes through early Friday. Soundings aren`t overly
conducive for precipitation with a prominent warm nose and dry
air still present aloft, keeping us dry through the end of the
week and into the weekend. Highs will continue to fall towards
more seasonal values through the weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night/
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
VFR conditions currently prevail across central Iowa. 03z
observations have shown a general visby degradation as fog begins
to develop once again within the abnormally humid environment.
Model guidance suggests the highest chances to see categorical
reductions will be in southeast corner of the forecast area
including KOTM. Conditions may be a repeat of Tuesday morning
which saw a few hours of visby down into IFR/LIFR. Elsewhere the
potential for sub-VFR visby or even sct/bkn low clouds is much
more uncertain.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1037 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show elevated
showers and thunderstorms slowly exiting northeast Wisconsin
early this afternoon. Meanwhile, temperatures have been slow to
rise over many parts of northeast Wisconsin in part due to
southeast winds, ample cloud cover, and positioned northeast of a
warm front. This warm front was roughly located north of
Minneapolis to the Wisconsin Dells to Madison at 19z. As this
warm front surges northward, thunderstorm chances and excessive
heat are the main forecast concerns through Wednesday.
Tonight...The warm front will progress northeast and into far
northern and northeast WI by 7 am Wednesday. Like last night, a
40+ kt low level jet is expected to develop and initiate
convection, this time over the central Upper Peninsula from late
evening into the overnight. Cloud layer flow will remain out of
the northwest which would track any storms over far northern Door
county. Small hail and locally heavy rain will be possible. The
rest of the region should see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and warmer conditions. Lows ranging from near 60 degrees in the
northwoods to around 70 at Marshfield and Wisconsin Rapids.
Wednesday...The warm front will stall over far northern Wisconsin
for much of the day, placing the majority of the region in the
warm sector. Under mostly clear skies, should have ample sunshine
for very warm temps to occur before winds shift to the north late
in the afternoon. Taking an average of 925mb temps puts highs in
the mid to upper 90s over central and east-central WI. Combined
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices of 100 too 110
look likely. Forecast highs have increased a degree or two in this
forecast cycle, so will expand the excessive heat warning and
heat advisory. The expiration time is not ideal, but matches
neighboring offices headlines, and it can be canceled early.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Warm and humid weather is likely Wednesday night as
dewpoints remain in the 60s. Thursday will not be as hot as
Wednesday, but will still be warm and humid over all but the
north despite a northeast wind.
An upper trough and surface cold front will move across the area
Friday and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. There may
be enough instability to get some strong or severe storms in the
north where directional and speed shear are maximized.
Cooler and drier weather will return for Saturday and Sunday as a
large surface high moves in from central Canada. There may be
enough of a northeast wind Saturday for small craft advisory
conditions on the lake and bay.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Low clouds have filled in along and north of Hwy 29 this evening,
with most locations showing a mix of MVFR and VFR ceiling heights.
The clouds were forming north of a warm front, which was situated
in central WI.
Scattered thunderstorms could brush through northern Door County
during the overnight hours, but it is looking more likely that
storms will stay northeast of the forecast area. The main aviation
concerns will be low cloud/fog/LLWS trends overnight into
Wednesday morning.
Have gone more pessimistic with the coverage of low clouds
overnight, and trended slower with the erosion of the clouds as a
warm front shifts north on Wednesday. It looks like a good bet
that the front will not make it all the way through the forecast
area, so low clouds will probably persist over far northern WI
through the day. The main question is how low the ceilings will
get overnight, as most observing sites were reporting ceilings in
the 2500-3500 ft agl range late this evening. Still think
ceilings may drop to IFR over northern WI, and that at least
patchy fog will form there as well. Improvement to VFR may not
occur until early Wednesday afternoon at the RHI TAF site. The
warm front will retreat to the south as a cold front Wednesday
evening, which should allow low clouds to make a southerly push
again later in the TAF period.
LLWS is expected to expand eastward during the overnight hours,
as a SW-W low-level jet increases to 35 to 40 knots. The LLWS
should wane early Wednesday as the low-level jet weakens.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ020-030-
031-037>040-049-050-074.
Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through
Wednesday evening for WIZ022-040-050.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
WIZ035-036-045-048.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
950 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
A complicated forecast remains for Wednesday. Strong elevated
instability on the periphery of a building upper ridge and nose of
a 45 kt LLJ (underneath a well-positioned right entrance region of
the upper level jet) will help initiate clusters of thunderstorms
across northern Lake Michigan and northern Lower Michigan very early
Wednesday morning. Numerical model guidance so far has fallen into
two camps: 1) A NW/SE oriented line of thunderstorms east of US
131 from around 09z to 13z or so, and 2) A W/E oriented line of
storms that drops due south through the northern 2/3rds of our
forecast area roughly during the same time period.
Either solution is plausible, though a slight favoring is given to
the first scenario given how well the HRRR handles convection and
how consistent it has been showing a more arching complex of
storms during the 09z-13z time frame across the eastern 1/2 of our
CWA. These may produce locally 1"-2" (or more) of rainfall into
mid morning along with large hail.
With either scenario, a rain-cooled outflow from these storms may
impact much of our region even for areas that don`t receive rain
(ie. look at the 00z HRRR sfc T from 12z-15z). The effect this
would have is to both delay the arrival of the heat across our
Heat Advisory area and shorten its duration today, with a focus on
hazardous heat mainly after 2pm and especially toward late
afternoon/evening. If storms trend even slower and further west
than currently indicated, the heat may take even longer to get
here, but once it does, the heat index readings are shown to
abruptly reach into the low 100s by late afternoon across the
Advisory area.
A few storms could manage to fire Wednesday evening/night but
more likely this will occur across SE Lower Michigan. Still, there
is some upper divergence east of US 131 from 00z-06z Thursday and
a LLJ of around 40 kts will be overhead, with best low level
convergence across SE Lower Michigan.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
-- Possibly severe storms overnight with heavy rain --
Thunderstorms continue to be expected for areas mostly north of I-96
overnight with the severe threat decreasing as one moves from north
to south. This notion is supported both by NBM guidance and by the
22/12Z HREF 24 hour ensemble maximum updraft product available on
SPC`s web page. This maximum updraft area coincides with WPC`s
excessive rainfall marginal risk area. As mentioned previously,
severe thunderstorm hazards would lead with hail, especially early
if the storm mode remains relatively discrete into our northern
zones as suggested by the convection allowing models. A full blown
MCS is expected to blossom upscale, but models are quite consistent
with weakening this feature towards the morning hours as it dives
southward. This makes sense given that we expect an eastward
directed and persistent low level jet over northern Wisconsin
overnight. As the MCS moves away from this low level forcing and
becomes increasingly parallel to the lower tropospheric flow, this
will reduce the severe threat considerably but locally heavy rain
will continue to be a concern.
-- Oppressive heat and diminished air quality Wednesday --
A heat advisory is still planned for much of the forecast area
Wednesday. With the heat and significant incoming shortwave
radiation comes elevated ozone production. Please refer to the
Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy website for
further details.
-- Low chances for severe storms Wednesday afternoon/evening --
HREF mean MUCAPE forecasts indicate a plume of 3500-4000 J/kg
instability poking into our western forecast area Wednesday
afternoon. However, near surface flow along with an ill-defined low
level jet both look slightly divergent and this will be accompanied
by continued capping from a hybrid subsidence/EML inversion. Given
less than optimal conditions for storms, we have carried relatively
low (20 percent) PoPs for this time - but as noted previously, the
conditional threat for severe weather remains relatively high with
all of the possible hazards being possible if any storms do manage
to develop.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Some changes are in the offing. The strong upper ridge over the
Central U.S.-- responsible for numerous high temperature records to
the west/south of Michigan -- will steadily break down and retreat
to the west late this week. While the ridge will bring more
heat/humidity to West Michigan Thursday, the repositioning of the
upper ridge will allow northwest flow aloft to develop and this will
result in cooler and much drier weather this weekend into early next
week.
-- Heat and humidity continue Thursday --
A fair amount of uncertainty surrounds Thursday`s forecast,
particularly as it pertains to thunderstorm chances and heat. Models
suggest we start the day with a west-east front draped across Lower
Michigan. Weakish large-scale forcing may be provided by mid level
impulses dropping into the region from the WNW /which will also serve
to flatten persistent upper ridge just to our west/. The low level
air mass will remain quite moist, and models support MLCAPEs in
excess of 2k J/kg. However, with very warm mid level air mass
centered in the vicinity of 800-700 mb, we may remain capped off
entirely to deep/moist convection in spite of moisture and
instability. Best chances for mainly late day storms will be over
western and northern parts of forecast area.
As for the heat -- with surface dew points still likely to be in the
70s, if we can realize enough sunshine to reach/exceed 90F, Heat
Advisory criteria may once again be a factor for Thursday for areas
south of a Grand Haven to Lansing line. Heat indices in these areas
may near 100F Thursday afternoon.
-- Cooler air arrives this weekend --
Thursday`s surface front will drop south of the area by Friday, as a
stronger short wave aloft approaches the Great Lakes from the NW
late Friday. This is expected to supply scattered showers late
Friday into early Saturday. High pressure will then drop into the
upper Great Lakes by late Saturday and Sunday. This will result in
sunshine, daytime highs in the low-mid 70s, and nighttime lows in
the mid 40s to lower 50s for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Enjoy.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Primarily VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals through
00Z Thur. However there are potential caveats in the forecast late
tonight into Wednesday morning when there is potential for a line
of strong thunderstorms to move in from the nnw.
Considerable uncertainty in thunderstorm evolution still exists
but if storms materialize and hold together into the early morning
hours they could bring brief LIFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain and
potential for some gusty winds and hail.
Any convection should move out of our area by mid to late
Wednesday morning and be followed by a return to VFR conditions
for the late morning and afternoon hours. Any convective
redevelopment later tomorrow would likely hold off until after 00Z
Thur.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
Will be issuing a small craft advisory and beach hazards statement
starting tonight and lasting at least into Wednesday afternoon.
Guidance suggests a corridor of strong southeasterly flow
developing ahead of a thunderstorm complex overnight. Although
that direction is not favorable for nearshore wave growth, speeds
could be quite substantial. Then, the background flow veers
around to more of a southwesterly direction by Wednesday
afternoon, allowing for robust wave growth across all but our
southernmost marine zones.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through
Wednesday evening for MIZ037-043-050-056.
Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for
MIZ056-057-064-065-071>073.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hoving
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Laurens
MARINE...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
228 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Rainfall from Hilary brought beneficial rains to the region this
morning and afternoon. A few more hours of light precipition is in
store for Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Warmer than
normal temperatures return late this week and shower chances on
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Beneficial rains have mostly come to an end in the Spokane area.
Any heavy rain activity will be confined to the northern mountains
and Southeast WA and the Southern Panhandle. There is still a 20%
chance of measurable rain through this evening in Spokane County,
but we will rapidly dry out overnight. The rain cooled air mass has
kept it incredibly cool with Spokane airport measuring 59 degrees at
1 pm. Heavier showers and thunderstorms have blossomed in the Blue
Mountains and moved northeast into the L-C Valley. Am monitoring the
flash flood threat there as we have discovered how vulnerable they
can be when PWAT anomalies are around 200%. A couple storms have
moved over it but they are moving fast enough where training storms
are the larger concern. Will quickly dry out tonight.
Tomorrow will bring elevated fire weather conditions with breezy
southwest winds with the passage of the trough offshore the WA
coast. There will be no red flag conditions but ongoing fires
(especially in the North Cascades and Canada with fires that did not
receive rain) could become more active. /Butler
Thursday through Tuesday: A low pressure system will move out of
the Gulf of Alaska and sit off the Pac NW coast through the
weekend. It will merge with a low off the CA coast and that wave
gets pushed into the Pac NW on Friday.
We will continue to see temperatures warm each day through next
Monday. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above average for
the end of August. Valley readings in the mid 80s to near 100 are
expected for the weekend.
Winds will generally be under 15 mph through the period. There
will be a northerly push down the Okanogan Valley and onto the
Waterville Plateau Thursday morning, and then more widespread
north to northeasterly winds on Friday morning and early
afternoon.
Friday as the wave from California moves into the region we will
see an increase in clouds with a 20-40% chance of precipitation
region wide. Convection still looks to be confined from the Blue
Mountains to about Lookout Pass.
Uncertainty comes into the forecast come next Monday and Tuesday
with what to do with the low off the coast. 30% of ensemble models
suggest by Tuesday the low moving onto the west coast. Chance of
precipitation begins to enter the forecast beginning Monday and
continues through Tuesday. Even though there is high uncertainty
on the timing of the trough moving in, the impacts have the
potential to be high, with dry and windy conditions and a chance
of thunderstorms if it moves through during the afternoon. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: Rain intensity for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW will wind down
over the next 6 hours. Heavy rain will bring down visibility and
ceilings for a few hours this afternoon at KLWS. A return of smoke
from the HRRR smoke model will filter in from the southwest
Wednesday with breezy winds. /Butler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 77 48 82 53 87 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
Coeur d`Alene 53 75 48 82 54 87 / 30 10 0 0 0 10
Pullman 48 75 43 80 49 81 / 50 0 0 0 0 40
Lewiston 63 81 56 89 61 88 / 70 10 0 0 0 40
Colville 41 76 38 81 42 88 / 10 10 0 0 0 10
Sandpoint 49 74 44 79 50 84 / 20 10 0 0 0 10
Kellogg 58 73 51 80 57 86 / 50 10 0 0 0 20
Moses Lake 51 79 48 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
Wenatchee 58 80 55 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
Omak 55 80 52 85 58 89 / 10 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle
Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
Counties-Lewiston Area.
WA...Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and
Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1033 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will settle south and across the Carolinas
tonight. Canadian high pressure will briefly follow and extend
across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 PM Tuesday...
The anomalously strong mid/upper ridge will continue to be centered
to our west over MO tonight. At the surface, 1023 mb high pressure
is currently centered over the eastern Great Lakes region, while a
backdoor cold front extends from the NW Piedmont into the Sandhills.
The front will continue to move SW, clearing all of central NC in
the next couple of hours. Ahead of the front, winds are mainly calm,
but behind it, they are northeasterly and there are isolated gusts
to 15-20 kts. Brought down forecast gusts a bit given their very
sporadic nature, and they will diminish from NE to SW overnight.
Otherwise, isolated light to moderate showers continue to move south
across the central and southern Coastal Plain, with another area
around the Triad, coincident with a band of low-level moisture
convergence along and just behind the front. Thus extended POPs
farther west in the Piedmont to account for this. It has been
difficult finding any stations reporting measurable rain, and latest
radar trends show diminishing returns. The last several runs of the
HRRR also backed off on the higher totals. So any rainfall amounts
are expected to be light, less than a tenth of an inch, and POPs are
still only in the slight to low chance range.
Lower dew points behind the frontal passage are a bit delayed, but
NE flow will eventually advect cooler and drier air into the region
overnight, as is evident by the lower-to-mid-50s dew points
currently observed at KHNZ and south-central VA. Low temperatures
will range from lower-60s NE to lower-70s SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Tuesday...
Nly to nwly mid/upper-level flow, and accompanying periods of mostly
thin mid/high-level cloudiness, will be directed across cntl NC and
around a weakening mid-latitude anticyclone that will drift across
MO and into the Ozarks. It should otherwise be mostly sunny/clear
after a band of lingering stratus/stratocumulus drifts swwd and out
of the srn NC Piedmont around sunrise Wed.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure will build across and
offshore the Northeast and middle Atlantic, while extending swwd
across the Carolinas. The presence of this ridge will result in
markedly cooler and drier air (than recent days), with forecast high
temperatures of 83 to 89 F and with afternoon surface dewpoints
mostly in the low-mid 50s. Some upr 40s will not be out of the
question based on upstream conditions over n-cntl VA, where surface
dewpoints in the mid-upr 40s have been observed this afternoon. Calm
or nearly so will then favor strong radiational cooling of the fresh
continental/Canadian airmass, with low temperatures mostly in the
lwr-mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 PM Tuesday...
The high pressure aloft centered over the Midwest Thu will slowly
retreat westward to over the Four Corners through early next week.
Several shortwaves will ride the periphery of the upper level ridge.
The initial wave should clip or skirt just NE of the area on Thu.
However, as the high retreats westward, the subsequent waves will
have a greater impact on central NC. Expect a return to diurnally
driven convection coincident with passing shortwaves aloft Fri to
Sun. For now, it appears central NC will be sandwiched between the
ridge to the west and the trough to the NE Fri and Sat, with the
trough becoming dominant and extending into the region Sun/Mon.
Forecast confidence decreases beyond Mon owing to increasing
differences in the medium-range model solutions. At the surface, the
ridge extending SW through the area from a high off New England
should shift offshore Thu/Thu night. Meanwhile, a low will trek
eastward through the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes and into the
Northeast. A trough will set up over the area on Fri, with a return
to more southerly flow across central NC. The trough should remain
in place Fri night, and Sat before a cold front slides into the area
Sat night/Sun. As mentioned earlier, medium-range guidance really
begins to diverge Sun/Mon, with low confidence in the forecast
beyond that point.
Temperatures: Temperatures should generally be 3-6 degrees above
normal Thu/Thu night, highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and lows upper
60s/low 70s. Still expect Friday to be the hottest day, with highs
ranging from mid 90s to low 100s. Heat index values could approach
Heat Advisory criteria (105) in several places Fri afternoon. Not a
whole lot of relief Fri night, with lows only dipping into the low
to mid 70s. Continued hot on Sat, highs in the 90s, around 90 along
the VA border to near 100 along the SC border. Heat Index values
topping out in the 100-104 degree range again Sat. Temperatures
should then fall closer to normal Sun and near to below normal on
Mon.
Precipitation: While an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out
along the VA border on Thu, will keep the forecast dry for now.
Chances for and coverage of aft/eve showers and storms increase from
Fri to Sun, with the chances persisting into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /2330Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Tuesday...
A cold frontal boundary is slowly sagging south through central NC
and currently stretches from west of TDF (Person County), just west
of KRDU to Newton Grove/Mount Olive area and is identifiable as a
radar fine-line. Immediately behind the fropa, fleeting scattered
light showers and isolated moderate showers have been observed and
are expected to continue through the late evening, which is
supported by Hi-Res guidance. Some guidance shows showers increasing
in intensity in the vicinity of FAY after the fropa leading to a
chance (30%) for light/moderate rain near FAY. This threat is
captured with a VCSH from 3-8z, but if confidence increases, a
prevailing SHRA and lower cigs/vsby to low-MVFR to near IFR may be
introduced. Otherwise, behind the fropa, a brief period of ENE
winds, gusting up to 17-18kts, will be possible at all TAF sites
before subsiding with boundary-layer stabilization. Drying behind
the front will bring VFR conditions and light NE winds, 5-10kts,
heading into Wednesday. -Swiggett
Looking beyond 00z Thursday, the influence of high pressure and
dry/continental air over NC will favor prevailing VFR conditions
through at least early Fri, followed by a chance of showers/storms
as a front settles across the region late Fri into the upcoming
weekend. -MWS
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Swiggett/MWS