Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/30/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1047 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
All evening convection has pretty much ended, with a band of
showers over the northwest developing the past hour or so. Still a
possibility for overnight storms, with enough shear and linger
instability west to produce a window for some stronger activity.
Any severe threat will end 06 through 12Z overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Thus far the more robust convection has been across southwestern
North Dakota with a couple of supercells developing there. This
makes sense with SREF Prob Severe and HREF convective parameters
showing this area having the greatest threat, with little
potential elsewhere. Will continue to mention severe potential
elsewhere but very conditional with ample shear and enough
instability still in play. CAMs though definitely not in
agreement with any given scenario after this early evening`s
convection moves off to the southeast or dissipates. Will continue
to monitor closely and adjust the forecast as needed. Again
though, southwestern ND looks like the best area for strong to
severe storms at this time through 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening and tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
A conditional threat for severe thunderstorms exists this late
afternoon and evening across western North Dakota. If a
thunderstorm can develop, hail to the size of golf balls and 60
mph wind gusts may be possible.
In the upper levels, ridging was gradually amplifying over the
Northern Rockies, while downstream of the ridge axis northwest
flow continues over the Northern Rockies. Lower level southerly
flow was found across western North Dakota in response to weak lee
cyclogenesis and pressure falls, maintaining surface dew points
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
This afternoon, instability should develop across western North
Dakota as the surface warms under gradually steepening mid-level
lapse rates. The modest lapse rates and surface dew points, as
well as warm air advection in the 700mb layer working to maintain
a capping layer, combine to produce uncertainty in just how
unstable the warm sector can become. 12Z HREF SBCAPE probabilities
range from 500 to around 1500 J/kg, maximizing near the Montana
border. The western counties are where the environment for severe
weather should be relatively better today if thunderstorms can
develop as this instability combines with strong flow aloft. The
uncertainty in timing, location, and coverage remains relatively
high however as the weak synoptic forcing and residual capping
should play a part in keeping initiation coverage on the low side.
While the 0-6km shear near 50 kts today would normally signal a
threat for at least 2 inch hail given adequate instability, the
uncertainty regarding convective inhibition was enough to keep
messaging of hail threats to golf ball size for now, along with 60
mph wind gusts.
Overnight tonight, southerly theta-e advection at 850mb modestly
intensifies in response to the upper ridge nudging east. This
advection should produce some elevated based MUCAPE while
nocturnal convective initiation may be possible along a
northwest-southeast oriented 850mb baroclinic zone. The magnitude
of the 850mb winds aren`t forecast to be particularly strong for
adequate convergence however, which may be why most CAMs besides
the HRRR keep convection fairly isolated and weak overnight. POPs
were expanded based on this signal but the overall severe message
will be kept for potential convection this late afternoon and
evening for now.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
A warming trend for the first half of the week and then a cool
down for the second half highlights the long term forecast period.
Daily chances for thunderstorms are in the forecast through the
warm period.
Sunday into early next week the upper level pattern is forecast to
see a gradual building of the ridge, which will push warmer low
level temperatures into North Dakota. Highs in the 80s on Sunday
should rise to the upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday. While the
warm lower level air mass should work to produce a convective
inhibition layer each afternoon, the improving boundary layer
moisture via southerly return flow should provide the chance for
isolated thunderstorms each day through mid-week. Chances drop
off a bit during the second half of the week when a northern
stream wave pushes better moisture to the south, which should also
usher in a period of below normal temperatures (signaled by CIPS
analogs).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms overnight. Overall timing and locations
are very inconsistent between guidance, but there does seem to be
enough of a signal at KXWA-KDIK to include VCSH/VCTS after 00Z.
Any thunderstorms this evening and tonight may produce hail,
damaging winds, and periods of heavy rainfall. Outside of
convective activity conditions should be VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
534 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Forecast concerns deal with severe thunderstorms through the short
term.
Currently...Frontal boundary lays across the front range of
Colorado...north to Laramie...to Casper up into western Montana
this afternoon. Southeast winds east of the front with westerly
winds across Carbon County. Dewpoints quite high east of the front
with low 60s at Cheyenne...Torrington and upper 50s across the
Panhandle and our northern counties in the CWA. Radar showing a
few storms developing across Albany County...moving east at 20kts
or so. Had a surface boundary move into the east slopes of the
Laramie Range this morning that raised these dewpoints...but also
stabilized the lower levels. Current RAP showing quite a bit of
low level CIN around -100 to -150 J/KG in the southeast WYoming
Plains into the Panhandle. That seems to be panning out as the
storms pass over the Laramie Range and then quickly dissipate for
now.
Later this afternoon...around the 22Z to 23Z timeframe...we lose
that low level convective inhibition. GFS soundings showing low
level inversion wiping out at least for the southeast Wyoming
soundings. Panhandle sites keep the low level cap going...but do
have higher CAPE. MLCAPE across the southeast Wyoming plains
1500-2000 J/KG. Do think the bulk of severe convection is going to
occur across the southeast Wyoming plains. HRRR simulated radar
showing the bullseye in Platte and Goshen Counties between 21Z and
01Z. Storms look to weaken significantly in the western tier of
Nebraska Counties as the storms move east. HRRR does show a
supercell developing across northern Sioux and Dawes Counties
after 02-03Z this evening...so will need to watch the northern
Panhandle tonight.
For Sunday...could be another late show as an upper shortwave
moves through the upper ridge. Certainly looks like more
convection Sunday afternoon/evening. Certainly better instability
Sunday over today as Panhandle sites lose their low level caps
after 18Z. GFS MUCAPE 2000/2500 J/KG across the Panhandle SUnday
afternoon with sufficient 0-6km shear of 40kts. PWATS quite high
Sunday with 1.23 inch across the northern Panhandle. A Marginal
Risk area is identified for most areas east of the Laramie Range
for Sunday afternoon/evening.
Perhaps our best day for severe convection will be Monday as more
monsoonal mositure moves in from the southwest...that will
combine with low level moisture being pulled into areas east of
the Laramie Range in southeast low level flow. GFS layered PWATS
up near 1.5 inches across the Panhandle...over an inch here at
Cheyenne and almost an inch over our western counties west of the
Laramie Range. GFS showing a fairly strong upper shortwave moving
into our western CWA Monday afternoon. One aspect to point out for
Monday...we lose our modest upper level flow. So 0-6km shear
decreases down to 20-25kts across southeast Wyoming and even less
in the Panhandle. So possibly...storms will be slow moving heavy
rainers instead of big hailers and strong downburst winds. Will
need to wait and see how this pans out.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
The active monsoon weather pattern will continue its well-advertised
swath of diurnal to evening thundershowers for the extended weather
forecast across our area. This unsettled weather pattern will be
present while we initially have seasonal to slightly above average
temperatures favored, before a weak cool front passage towards the
end of the week arrives in our forecast area. This will cause
temperatures to shift to slightly below normal readings by the end
of the week.
The first portion of the medium range to extended forecast includes
Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance is showing a strong signal for
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms for portions of the cwa
as very warm temperatures persist. Daytime highs in the 80s and 90s,
and moderate to heavy rainfall in the strongest of the thunderstorms
will continue helping with keeping areas green, east of the Laramie
Range. Monday will have elevated fire weather conditions for RH
minimums across Carbon County, but the remainder of the area should
have wetting rainfall occur where thunderstorms are present. 700mb
temperatures of +10C to +20C will be present aloft, and mix down to
the surface easily each afternoon. The slow-moving, broad surface
high pressure across the Desert CONUS into the Southern Rolling
Plains will rotate clockwise. The steering flow of the abundantly
moist airmass will bring multiple rounds of thunderstorms for the
cwa, moving from west to east during the afternoon through the late
evening time frame. The highest daytime maximums are expected east
of the Laramie Range as the delay in showers and storms that develop
will assist with with increased peak heating.
Wednesday through Friday will bring additional opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms from the afternoon to late evening hours.
At this time of inspection, the aforementioned weak cool front is
anticipated to swing south across our cwa on Thursday. Slightly
cooler temperatures will be present behind the weak cool FROPA, by
approximately 5-10 degrees in comparison to earlier days in the
week. Daytime highs by the end of the week onward are forecast to be
in the 70s in the lower terrain, and the 50s/60s for the higher
mountain elevations. Another mode of the extended forecast to watch
is the amount of rainfall occurring daily over similar areas. Flood
hazards may become a concern as we arrive at the end of the week.
Model guidance is pinging 1-3+ inches of possible total QPF for
portions of the cwa by early next weekend. We will continue to
monitor the trends and update the forecast accordingly in the mean
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Wyoming Terminals... Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are
currently ongoing across southeast Wyoming. These showers and
storms are the primary aviation concern at this time. Several of
these showers and storms have produced 30 to 40 kts gusts as they
collapse, and this threat will continue until the storms move into
western Nebraska. VFR conditions are present at all sites and are
expected to remain VFR at most sites through the overnight hours.
KCYS may see some light fog near day break and this fog could
potentially drop conditions to MVFR for a few hours. Attention
turns towards afternoon showers and thunderstorms once again near
the end of the TAF period.
Nebraska Terminals... VFR conditions currently at all sites across
western Nebraska. These conditions are expected to continue
through the TAF period, but an isolated storm or two may develop
later this evening. Included VCTS for all sites except KBFF, but
confidence is low at this time due to the relative lack of storm
initiation over southeast Wyoming and models poorly handling the
current environment. Calm conditions return in the early morning
hours before gusty winds begin in the afternoon. Gusty winds
expected with gusts around 15 kts likely at all terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Near critical afternoon humidity both this afternoon and Sunday
across Carbon County. Fortunately...winds are not expected to be
critical either afternoon...so fire weather concerns will be
minimal. A stalled out frontal boundary lays along the Laramie
Range this afternoon and will be the focusing mechanism for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. More monsoonal moisture
Sunday afternoon into next week will keep afternoon humidity high
and increasing chances for more widespread wetting rains and
thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...AM
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
With the upper ridge centered across Colorado and the TX/OK
panhandles, an inverted trough is swinging across northern mexico
along the southern edge of the ridge. By eating away at some of the
thickness, this trough helps keep temperatures much closer to
average than we`ve seen lately, but will still top out in the mid to
upper 90s for most today and tomorrow afternoon. The trough also
brings some increased low-mid level moisture, when paired with some
decreased subsidence, may lead to a few diurnally driven storms
across the Davis Mountains and Big Bend Sunday afternoon. Only the
HRRR resolves a fair amount of storms while the other CAMs stay
fairly spotty...am satisfied with the PoPs NBM has of around 10-20%.
-Munyan
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
The upper ridge that continues to bring hot, dry conditions will
shift slightly early next week centering over the S. Plains. With
this occurring we could see a plume of Gulf moisture move across N.
Mexico into portions of far west Texas through late week. While most
convective activity associated with the moisture increase will
remain to our west, we should see at least an uptick in
thunderstorms affecting the Davis Mountains west to the Presidio
Valley. The NBM continues to input likely PoPs Tuesday/Wednesday for
our far western areas. Will temper this down given the lack of
support from ensembles and operational model runs. Temperatures will
remain above normal with most locations seeing upper 90s to just
above 100 degrees each day. While not as hot as previous heatwaves
this summer, you will still want to limit time in the sun and drink
plenty of water if you plan to be outside.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
VFR conditions with south to southeast winds continue at all
terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 73 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 70 98 72 100 / 0 0 0 10
Dryden 73 98 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 72 98 74 101 / 0 0 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 68 92 70 93 / 0 10 0 20
Hobbs 69 96 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 60 92 62 93 / 0 20 0 30
Midland Intl Airport 73 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 74 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 72 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...91
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
727 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching the area tonight will cross the area
Sunday, with cooler high pressure building in behind it early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 615 PM Saturday...A weak area of low pressure is moving slowly
ENE across coastal SC at this time, with an area of weak low-mid
level frontogenesis extending northeast through coastal NC. The best
moisture convergence and lift remains focused in the vicinity of the
surface low, and this is where the greatest coverage of rain and
thunderstorms is locally. Meanwhile, upstream of ENC (ie. from
western NC into central VA), a broken line of convection has
developed out ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. The
convection has developed within a narrow zone of weak inhibition and
moderate instability. Based on recent RAP data, the airmass
downstream is equally unstable, but more capped, suggesting the
convection will struggle to maintain intensity the further east into
NC it gets. Based on this, the current expectation is that the
ongoing strong to severe convection will not make it into ENC
tonight. We`ll continue to closely monitor trends in case this
expectation changes.
Regarding the SC low, it will begin to feel the influence of the
stronger westerlies aloft, and should continue to move offshore and
eventually pass by to the south of ENC overnight. Despite the recent
lull in shower activity locally, I expect the coverage to increase
late tonight as the above-mentioned cold front approaches, leading
to increased low-mid level frontogenesis within a very moist
airmass.
Lastly, the ongoing Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire at the
top of the hour as temps and heat indices quickly fall below the 100-
105 range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Surface low brings strong moisture advection to
the coast, with greatest POPs along the coast through the day,
following a mostly diurnal trend. Furthering inland, drier low
level air will begin to ride in on the back of NW flow behind a
very weak cold front that crosses the area during the day, and
drier conditions are expected by the afternoon. A few storms
and downpours are possible near the coast, but the overall
severe threat is low. Relatively more sunshine inland will allow
highs to climb into the lower 90s in the afternoon, but
decreasing dew points will keep the heat index well below Heat
Advisory levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...
Monday - Tuesday - The work week will start with highs in the
upper 80s and chance PoPs in the afternoon. The post frontal
airmass will have northerly/northeasterly flow with drier air
resulting in much more enjoyable Tds in the upper 60s/low 70s.
Conditions get increasingly better on Tuesday with even lower
Tds (mid/upper 60s).
Wednesday - Friday - Surface high pressure moves overhead
Wednesday and keeps us dry with highs in the mid/upper 80s. With
a lack of moisture in the atmosphere, Tds could drop to the low
60s. This unseasonable relief from the humidity will stick
around through much of Thursday but PoPs begin to increase
Thursday night into Friday as a surface trough makes its way
across NC. High temps will be a few degrees warmer (upper 80s)
with higher humidity as moisture is reinstated ahead of the
surface trough.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 715 PM Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions likely (60-80% chance)
later tonight into Sunday. TSRA possible (30-50% chance) on
Sunday. Forecast confidence over the next 24 hours is MODERATE.
We`re currently in a temporary lull in precip across Eastern NC
(ENC), as we remain sandwhiched between low pressure over SC and a
cold front approaching from the NW. As these two features get
closer, there will likely be an increase in lift within the very
moist airmass in place. The expectation is that this will lead to an
increased risk of low CIGs and SHRA, especially after 06z/2am
tonight. The risk of TSRA will gradually increase as well,
especially in the 09z/5am - 18z/2pm timeframe Sunday. This will
especially be the case from OAJ to EWN and points south. As the
above mentioned front moves through, the southerly wind of late will
become northerly. Drier air filtering in from the north should
gradually lead to a reduced risk of sub-VFR CIGs by mid to late
afternoon Sunday. Of note, the TSRA upstream across central NC and
VA are not expected to reach this far south this evening, but we`ll
be monitoring this potential and adjust the TAFs accordingly if
necessary.
LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 315 PM
Saturday...Prevailing VFR through the period. Sunday night/early
Monday morning could have decent potential for fog given the
high PoPs and light winds expected overnight. Winds are
generally 5-10kt through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 315 PM Sat...Breezy SW winds ahead of an approaching cold
front continue through the evening, with SCAs in effect for the
coastal waters and sounds. The weak front moves over the area
Sunday morning, with the surface gradient slowly weakening, and
diminishing SW winds through the morning Sunday become light to
moderate NW Sunday afternoon as the cold front crosses the
waters. Seas peak at 4-6 ft this evening in mainly southerly
windswell before gradually diminishing Sunday as the windswell
component weakens and becomes NW.
LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Winds remain generally 5-15kt through the
end of the period. Seas relax to 2-4ft Sunday and remain about
the same through Wednesday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
156-158-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...CB/OJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
909 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Initial severe threat has lessened and the severe watch was
cancelled a bit early. However, any areas that see additional
heavy rain will still have a threat for localized flooding, so
will keep this in the HWO for tonight. In addition to the
lingering showers and a few thunderstorms over our area, there is
still convection over KY closer to the slow moving cold front.
While the CAMS are not in great agreement they generally show
activity gradually diminishing overnight, and will blend in some
of the latest guidance with the current forecast to show these
trends on the convection. Will also adjust temperatures and dew
points which have lowered behind the initial convective line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Key Messages:
1. A few to several strong to severe storms expected this
afternoon/evening. Greatest chances will along I-40 and northward,
especially across northeast TN and southwest VA.
2. Main threats will be isolated damaging wind gusts and localized
flooding due to heavy rainfall.
Discussion:
Thunderstorms are currently ongoing to our north across central KY
within a weak area of surface convergence. CAMs in good agreement
that this activity continues to develop and move south into
southwest VA and northeast TN around 20Z. Thereafter, these storms
will continue to move south into the central East TN Valley. The
highest coverage of storms is expected along and north of I-40, with
more isolated to scattered activity the further south you go into
the southern TN Valley. Current rap analysis on SPC`s meso page
shows robust instability across the area with 4000 to 4500 J/kg of
SBCAPE and 2500 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Thankfully shear is non-
existent so these storms will be of the pulse variety and driven by
afternoon heating and outflows.
The main threats with these storms will be isolated damaging winds
gusts and localized flooding. The wind threat is due to a modest
amount of DCAPE with roughly 1000 J/kg in place. The heavy rainfall
is due to high PW values and good warm layer cloud depths of around
10kt feet. The steering flow is also very weak with 850-300 mb mean
winds of 10 to 15kts. This will allow for slow storm motions thus
increasing the flooding threat for areas that get hit by repeated
rounds of storms. Latest WPC QPF puts 0.75 to 1" of rain in for most
areas across northeast TN and southwest VA this afternoon. Some areas
may receive up to 2" of rainfall if they see repeated storms.
The activity that is currently ongoing across the central east TN
Valley was not forecast well by the CAMS. Given that there are
already storms ongoing, and the environment in place, I expect these
storms to continue before additional activity moves in from the
north. Some of these storms may be strong to severe.
CAMS show the bulk of the activity dying off by midnight, with only
isolated showers and storms thereafter. Areas that receive rainfall
will see locally dense fog overnight. Rainfall chances lower
tomorrow with only slight chance to low end chance POPs in place
during the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Key Messages:
1. Drier weather Monday through Wednesday.
2. Chances for showers and storms return late Wednesday through
Saturday.
Discussion:
Not seeing much in the way of changes with the extended. The pattern
generally remains the same, as we start the period with a ridge axis
located across the four-corners. Further north, low pressure will
remain across Quebec, placing the FA within northwest flow aloft.
Surface high pressure will settle across the Ohio Valley, bringing
northerly wind and a much drier atmosphere. Mostly dry weather is
expected Monday through much of Wednesday. Don`t want to completely
rule out a stray shower or two across the mountains, but outside of
that the forecast will stay dry. The caveat remains the potential
for any MCS activity that develops to the northwest and how that
propagates but predictability is still very low. Northerly flow will
certainly keep temperatures cooler, more aligned with climatological
normals.
Chances for precipitation begin to increase late Wednesday
associated with a passing disturbance aloft. With high pressure
moving off toward the east, southerly flow will increase bringing
better moisture back into the area. By late this week and into the
weekend, an area of low pressure is progged to lift into the Great
Lakes bringing a cold front through or near the area. This will
provide additional chances of showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Will see convection around early, with thunderstorms likely
impacting TYS and CHA. May be a shower or thunderstorm around later
in the forecast, but probability is too low to include for now.
Other concern is possible fog development, and right now the highest
chance for significant fog looks to be at TRI so will include
MVFR/IFR conditions there later tonight. Outside of any convection
and fog, mainly VFR conditions are expected all sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 94 71 93 / 20 30 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 91 69 89 / 40 20 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 70 90 68 88 / 40 20 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 87 65 85 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Key Messages:
- Another round of thunderstorms is possible tonight that could
bring damaging winds and hail across much of the area from 12
AM to 8 AM.
- Another cooler day is set for Sunday, and could be the last one
before next weekend.
- Temperatures warm back up into the upper 80s to mid 90s
midweek next week, and nightly chances of storms continue every
day next week.
Today and Tomorrow:
Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show the mid/upper
ridge across the Intermountain West with bits of shortwave energy
moving through the stronger upper winds north of the area. To the
southeast of the area, the continued MCS from this morning find
itself pushing into southern Illinois, leaving behind lowered
dewpoints and a processed airmass that still has pockets of 70
degree dewpoints in Nebraska and a nice corridor of them along and
north of the Iowa/Missouri line. With the morning showers warding
off some of the hottest conditions to the south, highs will only
reach the upper 80s for much of the area, with bearable apparent
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight, another assortment of storm activity in the form of an
MCS tries to jump start off of low-level jet nosing in north-central
Nebraska into south-central South Dakota. 12z runs of the non-hourly
convective models continue to focus the storms into southeast
Nebraska, while the RAP and HRRR have backed off a decent amount on
storm coverage overall. With the morning convection, it seems like
an increasing possibility that less activity happens, and similar
to the HRRR`s depiction a weaker assortment of small storms will
be the case. The most likely start time for storms in the more
widespread scenario would be 12 AM to 8 AM, while the weaker and
lesser coverage scenario would play out from 2 AM to 8 AM. As far
as the daytime hours are concerned, they`ll be largely influenced
by the morning and overnight convection. A widespread storm
coverage morning could keep temperatures in the low 80s for much
of the area while lower storm coverage would mean highs could see
a 5 degree bump into the upper 80s and low 90s again. We could
also see a cluster of storms pass to the north into north-central
Iowa that originated in South and North Dakotas.
Monday through Friday:
Beginning Monday, the mid/upper pattern begins shifting eastward
with the thermal axis centering itself overhead and ushering back in
the heat. As of right now, the warmest day looks to be Wednesday,
where 100-105+ heat index values are most likely and would be
focused along and south of Interstate 80. Tuesday could be warm as
well, but less so than Wednesday. Compared to last week, these
signals for warm weather aren`t as strong so it may not be the best
idea to bet on heat indices of 115 returning.
A large part of what is driving the weaker signals of heat is the
lower amplitude of the ridge, with shortwaves being driven through
the flow just north and west of the area. The warm and moist airmass
would serve as easy energy that will have chances to be used up
nightly. Overnight thunderstorms seem like they`ll be a mainstay
going through next week (though no slam dunk severe chances are
apparent). One the bright side, the ridge driving the heat looks
like it will be quickly squashed going into Friday where highs
in the low 80s are currently forecast and we could stay on the
cool side going into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Generally, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the
period. There remains a chance for a few storms to pop up across
northeast Nebraska overnight tonight and into Monday morning.
Strong winds and hail could be possible with the strongest storms.
The best chance for impacts looks to be from 09 to 13Z at KOFK
and 12 to 14Z at KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...KG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
823 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
The heat advisory was allowed to expire at 00Z. Tomorrow/s
forecast is not looking as widespread hot so not anticipating
needing another advisory. There will still be a few pixels of a
heat index of 105 or great close to the river.
The first round of convection has moved through Middle TN. The
next round associated with the dieing long-lived MCS that
initiated over the central Plains this morning is on the doorstep
of Steward County. Have used the HRRR to time the precipitation
through the grids. The HRRR shows the line moving NW to SE across
the forecast area. Not really affecting the southwest counties as
of right now. A previous high resolution model run also developed
more storms moving across the southwest part of the forecast area
by the morning hours...not really seeing that now.
The instability across Steward county is quite high with 5800 J/KG
of CAPE and LI/s of -11.2. This comes down quite a bit where
Lawrence county is only 3400 J/KG of CAPE and LI/s of -8. Knowing
this we are still very unstable. So storms could fire back up.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Who ordered the sauna for today? I will be honest, our maximum
temperatures will likely not get as high today as previously
forecasted. Most of the area is currently in the low to mid 90s.
While we still have a few more hours, dew point temps have remain
higher than previously forecasted which has likely limited our
temp potential a bit. Nonetheless, heat indicies have already
reached 105 in several locations this afternoon, with a few
locations reading 109 at the current hour.
Bigger forecast question for the day remains our
shower/thunderstorm chances now through tomorrow morning. CAMs
continue to struggle with the evolution of a MCS currently in
Missouri. Latest guidance does suggest this weakening a bit before
redeveloping a bit closer to our area. If this solution were to
play out, timing for our area would likely be late evening to
overnight. If the current MCS can hold together, that would likely
bringing timing up by a few hours. In addition, already have a
few storms firing across the Upper Cumberland with additional pop-
up thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Surface boundary sits
to our NW, which may provide enough lift to generate some more
storms this afternoon. The storms that have developed so far today
and developed very quickly, producing lightning almost
instantaneously. Luckily, they have also remained sub-severe. We
do have strong enough lapse rates and instability that I wouldn`t
rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm or two. Main concern
would be damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters.
Any shower/thunderstorm activity will move out by the morning
hours tomorrow, with a nicer and somewhat cooler day expected.
Will highs still be in the 90s? Of course, it`s July...but at
least heat indicies should remain below 100 for most of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
A somewhat active weather pattern appears to be shaping up for
next week. Upper level trough will remain parked just to our east,
with high pressure to our west. We will remain just on the edge
of the trough, with northwesterly flow driving most of our weather
pattern. Unfortunately this type of set up usually spells
multiple shortwaves for our area, so will likely see showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Pops remain a little low due
to the uncertainty in evolution, but do think this will be a bit
more than our typical summertime pop up situation. Luckily with
this set up it will keep temps closer to normal, with highs in the
low 90s and very manageable dew point temps.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Another line of storms will push through the mid-state later this
evening with northwest gusts of 35kts anticipated, but stronger
wind gusts can be expected if the line continues to produce severe
storms. Frequent lightning will also be a factor and will likely
stick around for a couple of hours. Towards sunrise all sites
should not have any impacts from the storms and any lingering
CIGS should dissipate at CKV, BNA, and MQY but stick around for
most of the day at SRB and CSV.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 74 94 72 91 / 60 20 10 10
Clarksville 72 93 70 90 / 80 20 10 10
Crossville 67 86 65 84 / 50 20 10 10
Columbia 72 94 70 91 / 40 30 10 10
Cookeville 70 89 67 86 / 60 20 10 0
Jamestown 69 86 66 84 / 40 10 10 0
Lawrenceburg 71 93 70 90 / 40 30 10 10
Murfreesboro 72 94 70 92 / 60 20 10 10
Waverly 71 92 70 90 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......12
SHORT TERM...Adcock
LONG TERM....Adcock
AVIATION.....05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
653 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
The convective line is showing signs of weakening, especially on
the southern end, but the gusty outflow will sweep through the
entire region in the next hour or two. We will start canceling
the Severe Watch behind the line shortly. The Heat Advisory will
expire on time at 7 PM.
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
All eyes are on the MCS approaching the STL metro area. It will
have a difficult time developing southward due to a lack of shear,
although the airmass across southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois has recovered from this morning`s convection. The best
bet at this time is that this convection will lose some of its
organization as it moves east southeast along the I-64 corridor
through the early evening. Damaging winds would be the main
concern, especially if it maintains its current level of linear
organization.
After this system moves through, confidence in PoPs later tonight
through Sunday night is quite low. We will maintain some chance
PoPs mainly over southeast Missouri Sunday with the potential for
another disturbance to interact with some decent low-level
moisture left over there. If we can warm up ahead of it, some
more damaging winds would be possible. Sunday night should be dry.
Stayed close to the NBM guidance for temperatures, but ran with
the latest HRRR for temperature trends tonight, with the
convective outflow expected to progress through the area this
evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
The Quad State will be under northwest flow aloft through the
period, but the upper ridge will once again attempt to build
closer to the region Thursday. The latest guidance has a
significant disturbance suppressing the ridge back to the
southwest Friday. At the surface, northeast or easterly flow
will be the rule Monday and Tuesday and then south winds will
return Wednesday which will lead to a warming and moistening
trend. Southwest winds will be strongest on Thursday and we may
need a Lake Wind Advisory. The heat and humidity may also require
another Heat Advisory.
As for convective potential, we will continue to be impacted by
multiple disturbances in the northwest flow aloft. Given the
baroclinic zone to our southwest early in the week, the PoPs are
focused over southeast Missouri Monday and Tuesday. As winds
become southerly and heights rise from the southwest, PoPs will be
focused over the northeast half of the region Wednesday
and Thursday. A period of very heavy rainfall with flash flooding
potential may develop at some point Tuesday night through
Thursday. PoPs will be more widespread with the frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
through the week, but should be most concerning the last half of
the week and especially with the cold front Friday.
The NBM temperature guidance was followed closely through the
period. Temperatures will be near or a bit below normal through
Wednesday and then climb well above normal Thursday and possibly
Friday depending on the frontal timing. They will fall back to
near normal levels Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Main concern is the line of storms and gust front winds sweeping
through the area early this evening. The gust front will clear the
entire area by 02Z, and the prevailing TSRA will clear all TAF
sites by 02Z as well. Some MVFR rain will continue for a couple of
hours behind the line at the northern sites. Overnight, where
winds are calm and skies clear, fog development is a good bet. VFR
conditions are expected Sunday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
252 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Key Messages:
1) Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening, with the strongest
storms expected along and north of Highway 50.
2) Above normal temperatures to continue.
3) Another round of showers and thunderstorms forming over the
mountains by midday Sunday, with the main risks being gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall.
Currently...The upper ridge of high pressure continues over the
region, while at the surface east to southeast flow has allowed
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s to push into the eastern plains up to
the I-25 Corridor. Convection fired up over the higher terrain by
noon and storm movement has been very slow, with localized heavy
rainfall indicated by radar. Temps as of 2 PM have climbed into the
80s for high valleys and El Paso County, and into the 90s for the
remainder of the plains.
Tonight...Hi-res models are indicating 2000-2500 j/kg of CAPE across
the eastern plains this afternoon, with the highest concentration
roughly along and north of Highway 50, correlating well with the SPC
Marginal and Slight areas for severe wx risk. Bulk shear is weak, so
most probable threat concerns will be large hail up to 1.5 inches,
strong wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and periods of heavy rain.
Even though the focus area stays more northerly, all of the plains
and higher terrain will need to be watched since all of this llvl
moisture banked up against the eastern slopes is providing plenty of
fuel for efficient rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding
problems for area burn scars.
Models also show that the risk quickly moves east across the
plains right around 9 PM as the upper shortwave pushes towards KS
and NE. Therefore, definitely a severe wx risk through the early
evening, with conditions quickly calming after 9 PM until midnight.
Overnight low temps are forecast to be similar to previous nights,
with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys,
and 60s across the plains.
Tomorrow...The upper pattern changes ever so slightly for tomorrow
as the high centroid starts to push east. Overall, Sunday should
feel like a repeat though with more of a focus of storm activity
tied to the higher terrain. So, plan on quick heating through the
morning, giving way to showers and thunderstorms developing over the
higher terrain between 11 AM and noon. SPC has the area under a
general thunder outlook, but the main threats anticipated are once
again strong wind gusts and periods of heavy rainfall which could
lead to localized flash flooding. Afternoon high temps will remain
about 5 degrees above seasonal normals, so look for highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s for the high valleys, and 90s to near 100F
for the plains.
As a reminder, multiple days of showers and storms equates to an
increasing concern for area burn scars, which will need to be
monitored for the potential of flash flooding. Moore
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Key messages:
1) Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout Sunday
evening, mainly over the higher terrain and I-25 corridor. Some of
the storms could be strong to severe along and east of the I-25
corridor in El Paso and Pueblo counties, with 60 to 70 mph wind
gusts and hail of 1 inch or greater in diameter.
2) Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be more confined over
the mountains from Monday through Tuesday, and drier over the
eastern plains.
3) Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will have more widespread
coverage next Wednesday through Friday with a better chance of
precip over the plains, and some of the storms will likely become
severe over the plains.
4) Overall temperature trend will be remain above the seasonal
average through the mid part of next week, then there will begin a
cooling trend thereafter by the end of next week.
Detailed discussion:
Sunday night...
CAMs have been showing some inconsistencies with regards to the
convection for tomorrow evening. The NAMNest and the NSSL are the
drier model runs with hardly any convection over the plains, whereas
the HRRR and ARW show a much more significant amount of convection
over the plains, even continuing into the early morning hours of
Monday. Given the very weak shear in place, along with the mid-level
flow primarily being out of the south over the plains, it is
probably more likely that there will be less in the way of activity
across the plains. That being said, if the HRRR/ARW verifies, there
could be a developing line of thunderstorms that extends from El
Paso County down to Huerfano County around 8 PM, and this will move
eastward and off over the eastern plains by later in the evening.
There will be some increasing shear by later on around 25 kts and
MUCAPE of more than 1500 J/kg in some areas, so there could be a
stronger to severe storm that develops along this line. If a severe
storm does materialize, it will likely be mainly a strong wind
producer of 60 to 70 mph. Although there will also be enough
instability in place for updraft strengthening and hail of possibly
1 inch or greater in diameter. As the evening progresses, things
should continue to stabilize and become more capped in the PBL, and
storms should begin to weaken and dissipate by around 1 to 2 AM.
There could still be some showers and maybe an isolated storm
continuing over the higher terrain through the morning on Monday.
Skies will subsequently begin to clear for most areas, except for
the southwestern mountains, but it will still be warmer than average
temperatures overnight with lows in the mid to upper 60s over the
plains and generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s for high country.
Monday through Tuesday...
The ridge will remain centered and nearly quasi-stationary over
Oklahoma throughout this period in the forecast. This will keep the
monsoonal moisture plume along with development of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms more confined to the mountains with the mid
level flow being more southerly rather than westerly. There could be
a few storms that make it out into the adjacent plains but the
majority of the plains, and especially the eastern plains, should
remain mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above
average, with only a very slight cooldown through this period,
although some areas of the plains will still likely hit the 100
degree mark.
Wednesday through Friday...
On Wednesday, deterministic models are continuing to resolve the
progression of an upper level low propagating northeastward from off
the coast of southern California towards the great basin and
eventually to the north of the region as it becomes absorbed into
the building ridge over the western states. This will help influence
and increase the amount of thunderstorm coverage over the region,
especially over the plains as the mid-level flow transitions back to
being more westerly. PWAT values with ensembles have been
consistently displaying an uptick in precip over the plains as they
have in previous days. In addition, increasing shear over the region
will also allow for there to be the potential of storms becoming
severe, especially over the plains on Thursday and Friday as there
will be an increasing southeasterly flow advecting up higher
dewpoints. This approaching trough will also help to cool
temperatures back to around the seasonal average by Thursday, and
even cooler with below seasonal temps on Friday. It will be slightly
cooler over the higher terrain on Wednesday as well, yet the
downsloping southwesterly winds will keep the lower valleys and
plains relatively warmer on Wednesday. -Stewey
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Generally VFR conditions anticipated for much of the forecast area
over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS,
KPUB and KALS.
Convection over the higher terrain this afternoon is expected to
affect mainly KCOS and KPUB into the eve so maintained mention of TS
in TEMPO group to roughly 03z, along with mention of potential winds
gusts to 30 kts. Intermittent MVFR vsby until 03z.
Thunder is less likely to move across KALS, though mentioned VCSH
with wind gusts up to 20 kts through 01z. Moore
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...MOORE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
Key points:
* More storm chances tonight into Monday morning, mainly in the
overnight/early AM periods
* Hot temperatures return by Tuesday
Morning MCS activity continues to impact local weather, with
warm-air advection over the outflow boundary, which has cleared
all but far southern Kansas at 18Z, keeping scattered showers and
thunderstorms overhead. This has allowed for much cooler
temperatures today, with little chance for significant warming to
Warning levels.
At least small chances for elevated storms linger into the early
evening, though the main concern looks to be late tonight into
Sunday morning. Though agreement in the models is again lacking,
there is some concensus for another MCS to form near/upstream of
western Nebraska this evening and take a similar track to this
morning`s. Southeast winds with dewpoints near 60 remain in the
aforementioned area with isentropic lift over the old
outflow/effective cold front supporting this convection
downstream. Instability looks weaker than this morning with
higher storm bases quite likely. Severe weather potential is thus
lower though will need to be watched. This will likely keep
afternoon temperatures a bit cooler than recent days again.
Another round of overnight activity seems possible late Sunday
night into Monday morning with the greater chances in northeast
Kansas, though an organized area looks even less likely.
The hot low levels build back north and northeast Monday into the
middle of next week as surface high pressure pushes east. Another
very hot period looks quite likely with high heat indices a good
bet. The GFS is again rather extreme and have trended temps back
toward the 50th percentile of NBM. A cold front still looks to
move through in the late Thursday to Friday time frame for some
relief to the heat and decent precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023
23Z Satellite and Radar shows a surface boundary pushing south of
the forecast area without any disturbance immediately upstream.
With the RAP and NAM showing the low level jet remaining weak
until 08Z or 09Z, think the evening will remain dry with mostly
clear skies. There is some chance for ground fog by daybreak as
seen in the RAP and NAM forecast soundings. But think high clouds
from convection off the central high plains will mitigate these
chances so that they are to low to include in the forecast at this
time. Uncertainty remains in how convection up north develops and
moves south early Monday morning. The flow around the upper ridge
would suggest any of the high plains convection would remain west
of the area. So storms would need to form over SD and there is a
reasonable signal for this. But poor continuity from the CAMs and
probabilities less than 50% argue for keeping TS out of the
forecast for now until confidence in morning storms increases.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...65
AVIATION...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 PM MST Sat Jul 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures again today with scattered mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will
generate strong winds and locally heavy rain. An increase in
moisture through early next week should result in cooler afternoon
temperatures and more numerous and wetter showers and
thunderstorms. Drier and hotter again by next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The afternoon convection is starting about as
expected with mountain initiation in the typical locations.
Convective potential supports valley storms, especially with
outflow off the higher terrain as is currently developing. The
HRRR supports another convergent area through eastern Pima county
during the very late afternoon and early evening hours. Some
storms will once again approach severe levels.
The inverted trough currently over Sinaloa into southern Chihuahua
will continue to rotate northward over the next 72 hours, directly
impacting our weather Sunday night into Monday. NAEFS mean
integrated water vapor transport shows an increase across eastern
areas tomorrow night into Sunday morning, with a more modest
increase area wide Sunday night. Expect it to push surface
dewpoints into the lower 60s and precipitable water values closer
to 1.5 inches (currently ranging from about 1 inch near the NM
border to 1.35 inches west). Elevated storm coverage possible
Sunday night with dynamics associated with the trough over
southeast Arizona Monday. Busy Monday with a heavy precip threat.
One caveat to that; if it ramps up to widespread showers late
Sunday night into Monday morning, the resulting lack of insolation
during the day Monday might make for less intense storm coverage,
even as precip chances remain elevated.
Still decent moisture in place Tuesday, but weak subsidence behind
the weakening mid level impulse as it lifts north of our area will
tend to tamp down storm coverage.
Some drying the second half of next week with well below average
thunderstorm coverage expected as the ridge builds back in from
the east and into a blocking position by Friday or Saturday. Both
GEFS and ECMWF thicknesses support a return to 110+ next Saturday.
It`s not east to hit 110 in August, with only 11 total 110 days
all time recorded in Tucson (4 of them in 2020).
Both GEFS and ECMWF 5 day ensemble means suggest positive height
anomalies over our area through mid August. Something that even
the elevated tropical activity expected off the western Mexico
coast over the next 7 days will have a hard time impacting. It
looks like the main story will once again shift back to record
breaking heat.
&&
.AVIATION...valid through 31/00Z.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA potentially impacting KTUS, KDUG,
and KOLS through 29/06Z. Gusty outflow winds to 40+ kts along
with VSBY reductions to 3SM or less are possible with TSRA.
Outside of thunderstorm outflows, afternoon SFC winds will remain
under 15 kts favoring NWLY at KTUS and KOLS, and SELY at KDUG
becoming light and terrain driven overnight. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of southeast
Arizona this afternoon before an increase in coverage and rainfall
potential is expected this weekend. Storms will be capable of
producing strong, gusty and erratic outflow winds of 45 mph or more.
Although sustained 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph
today, afternoon gusts to around 25 mph may occur. Hot temperatures
4-6 degrees above normal are possible this afternoon with high
temperatures lowering a few degrees Sunday into the middle of
next week. Valley min RH readings will generally range between
15-25% today and Sunday, then 20-30% for Monday and Tuesday before
drying out to 15-25% on Wednesday and 10-20% for Thursday and
Friday.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Meyer
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