Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/07/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
908 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will bring another mostly sunny, hot, and
humid afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be
possible this afternoon into early evening. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday, some with locally
heavy rainfall, as a cold front from the west crosses the region
in the afternoon and evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
900 PM Update...
Overall, the 18z CAMs and other short range guidance have had
the right idea with thunderstorms continuing this evening, which
are being supported by a weak 500 mb jet over CNY. These
isolated storms are expected to continue for at least a few more
hours, which is around the same time model guidance weakens the
aforementioned jet. The environment is not supportive of severe
storms, but a stronger storm or two cannot be totally ruled
out. After midnight, conditions should be dry across the region.
However, with the HRRR holding onto showers a bit longer, a
slight chance for showers/storms remains in the forecast. The
cold front is still expected to move into the region tomorrow
morning. Incorporating 18z model guidance with the previous
forecast, PoPs were reduced some leading up to sunrise as the
timing of the cold front has trended slightly later.
Fog was added to the forecast for some valley locations. BUFKIT
soundings for a couple locations do show some moisture near the
surface but it is shallow with drier air just above. With
partly cloudy skies expected overnight before filling in early
in the morning hours, there may be just enough clearing to
support some fog development late tonight/early Friday morning
600 PM Update...
Temperatures remain quite warm at this hour. The majority of the
region is in the 80s but a couple of areas are holding onto the
90s. The hourly temps and dewpts were touched up by blending in
some short range guidance with the previous forecast to better
match obs. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible through the evening, especially across the Finger Lakes
region. The CAMs continue to show showers developing along a
line that would extend from Central PA and up through the Finger
Lakes. Coverage will be limited though, so will keep PoPs
generally unchanged after sunset. A stronger storm as managed
to stay organized despite the lack of shear. This storm is
beginning to weaken, but those along the border of Susquehanna
and Wayne Counties will likely see brief moderate to heavy
showers.
130 pm update...
Little change to the forecast. This afternoon temperatures from
the mid 80s to around 90 and still rising. Dewpoints are in the
60s making it feel warmer. The heat advisory continues for parts
of central NY. NEPA does not have heat advisory due to higher
criteria. Deep moisture is lacking so showers are having a hard
time getting started. The better organized showers are in the
Poconos and Catskills and moving slowly north. Any showers will
die this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Tonight should be mostly dry as we wait for the upper level
trough and cold front from the west. Showers will move in after
sunrise and progress across the area by early afternoon. Some
heating and falling upper level heights will provide
instability. Model differences on how much still. The bigger
thing will be the deep moisture, high pwats, and light winds.
This all points to the potential of thunderstorms with heavy
rain and isolated flash flooding. The light winds should keep
the severe thunderstorm threat very low.
The cold front will push through late afternoon into the evening
from northwest to southeast. Behind the front showers will
quickly end. Clouds will be slow to clear but temperatures will
still fall into the low and mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
350 PM Update
Main concern in the short term period will be the potential for
heavy rain and thunderstorms especially on Sunday as front moves
through the area.
The first slow moving front looks to be mainly heading east of the
area by Saturday, but could get hung up over our far south eastern
zones. This would allow for enough lift, moisture and instability
for lingering showers and thunderstorms. At this time, model data
supports generally dry and partly sunny conditions from Binghamton
north and west on Saturday. Temperatures will be warm, and slightly
above average, with highs in the low to mid 80s expected.
By Saturday night, the next, negatively tilted upper level tough
begins approaching from the central Great Lakes region. South-
southwest flow aloft increases and there will be plenty of
instability and moisture around, with pwats increasing toward 1.5"
overnight. With this set up, expect some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop over the region. It will be muggy
with lows in the 60s and easterly surface winds under 10 mph.
The main front looks to slowly cross the area during the day and
evening hours on Sunday. Out ahead of the front, pwats continue
increasing between 1.6 and 1.9" over our CWA. Forecast soundings
continue to show a decent amounts of skinny CAPE (500-1000 J/kg)
especially over our eastern zones where some daytime heating may
occur, depending on timing and cloud cover. Warm cloud depth layer
looks to surge upwards of 11-12k ft and some guidance is showing a
surface low developing along the East Coast. This type of scenario
could prolong the rain and thunderstorm activity into at least
Sunday evening. Current QPF forecast are 1-2 inches, with locally
higher totals possible. WPC has placed much of our area under a
slight risk for excessive rainfall and flash-flooding...this will
need to be watched closely and will continue to mention in the HWO.
If there is enough instability, deep layer shear looks to be around
30 kts so also cannot rule out some more organized convection and
stronger storms. Otherwise, Sunday will be mostly cloudy and humid
with highs in the 70s to around 80 expected.
Rain and thunderstorms looks to linger until around midnight over
our eastern zones Sunday night (if current timing holds) then
gradually drying out as the front and low move off to the east
later at night. Remaining partly to mostly cloudy and there
could even be some patchy fog...lows back in the 60s again.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
351 PM Update
Quieter, typical mid-summer weather expected for most of this
long term period. The previous system mostly exits the area
before daybreak Monday, but a weak upper level trough remains in
place overhead during the day on Monday. This could spark off
an isolated shower or thunderstorm as temperatures reach into
the 80s under partly sunny skies.
Tuesday is looking warmer and mostly sunny as some upper level
ridging moves overhead. NBM still indicated a low chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm, with highs potentially reaching
the mid to upper 80s. Staying mainly quiet on Wednesday as a
weak front washes out just to our north near Lake Ontario.
Followed NBM closely again, which showed a slight chance for a
shower or storm across north central NY...temperatures hold in
the mid-80s...with overnight lows in the 60s each night. PoPs
increase back into the solid chance range as early indications
are for another trough and front to be approaching by next
Thursday; of course uncertainly is increasing this far out in
time in the model guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z update...
A few showers have popped up near SYR so a tempo has been added
since a few should pass close to the terminal. Otherwise,
tonight will be mostly VFR with high clouds moving in limiting
fog development.
Tomorrow, a front moving in will be a focal point for showers
and thunderstorms. The front moves through SYR and RME earlier
in the day so less instability is able to develop and so the
chances of thunderstorms are lower. The front does not reach
ITH, ELM, and BGM until the early afternoon so there is some
higher confidence of thunderstorms at or near the terminals so
a prob30 has been added for the rough timing of the storms. The
speed of the front slows as it nears AVP so there was less
confidence of showers and thunderstorms before 0Z though with
the heat and humidity a few pop up showers and thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the front.
Outlook...
Friday overnight through Saturday night...Mainly VFR; lingering
rain showers and scattered thunderstorms possible east.
Sunday through Sunday night...System brings a renewed higher
chance for thunderstorms; some with torrential downpours.
Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected, but still a
chance for a shower or storm.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH/TAC
NEAR TERM...BTL/TAC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...AJG/TAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
842 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
The most convectively active part of our area remains focused on
Lincoln County this evening. Despite struggles with convection
outside of Lincoln County, the HRRR has finally locked into what
appears to be a reasonable evolution for the rest of this evening.
Strong to severe thunderstorms currently ongoing will continue
moving southeast out of Lincoln county. Expect the last of the
storms to exit the county by 10 PM. Large hail and lightning will
continue to be the main impacts from these storms. Elsewhere,
there are a few clusters of rain showers widely scattered across
our area. Remaining instability outside of Lincoln county is less
than 500 J/kg and with no current lightning strikes indicated, we
don`t expect thunder with any of the showers. This activity will
gradually decrease a little after midnight. PoPs were updated to
reflect all the recent observational trends and CAM forecasts.
Speaking of the CAM forecasts, they continue to indicate an
outflow boundary moving south out of Wyoming before sunrise,
clearing our area by 5 or 6 AM. This boundary may generate
stratus, especially along the Palmer Divide and parts of the
upslope side of the South Platte Valley (generally south of the
river). The stratus will likely be spotty other than along the
Palmer Divide, and should burn off/move southeast by late morning
Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Strong west-northwest flow aloft will prevail through tonight and
Friday. Left exit region of the jet is currently over the
northern half of Colorado and is triggering two lines of showers
and storms across western Colorado and Utah. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected to be triggered later today by the
jet over northeast Colorado. Thunderstorms are also expected to
form over the higher terrain and along converge from storms and
the Denver Cyclone. Airmass is becoming quite unstable. Surface
based CAPE has reached 2500-3000 J/kg where temperatures are in
the mid 70s and dew points in the lower 60s. The strong westerly
flow aloft with southeast low level flow is producing 0-6km bulk
shear of 45-60 knots. Plenty of shear and instability for
supercell thunderstorms. Baseball size hail, winds to 80 mph, and
tornadoes will be possible with the supercell thunderstorms. There
is a decent cap in place which may slow development this
afternoon. Models generally agree the cap will be broken by this
evening with supercells charging east/southeast across the eastern
plains through the evening hours.
For Friday, the strong flow aloft continues but the jet axis
shifts north slightly and takes the better lift associated with it
into Wyoming. Low level flow will be east to northeast (not SE
like today). This brings slightly cooler air into the area. Still,
very good shear will be in place. Instability will be a lower
with surface based CAPE of 1000-2000J/kg, but still plenty for
severe thunderstorms. Storm initiation is expected to occur over
the higher terrain and above the cap that will be in place. As
storm progress eastward, convergence along the outflow boundaries
are expected to break the cap. This may not occur until late in
the day or evening. Golf ball size hail, winds to 70 mph, and very
heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms. The tornado
threat will be lower, but a tornado or two will be possible.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
In the wake of Friday`s stormy weather, abundant surface moisture
will remain in place Friday night and likely result in the return
of low stratus clouds to much of the plains and urban corridor,
and potentially some patchy fog as well. Come Saturday, we`re
looking at yet another round of afternoon convection, some of
which could be severe.
Moist southeasterly flow at the surface makes a return Saturday,
as do slightly warmer temperatures with highs that should climb
into the upper 70`s providing an added element of surface-based
heating. Instability will be creeping up as well, with MLCAPE
values progged in the 1,000-1,500 J/Kg range and, with the jet
streak still overhead, shear profiles don`t appear to change much
relative to previous days. The overall environment will remain
favorable for scattered afternoon thunderstorms, with severe
weather potential in the form of large hail present, and also a
limited potential for an isolated tornado and damaging wind gust.
Coverage may be greater than Friday, with essentially all of the
plains and urban corridor in play for severe weather, given
increased instability, moisture, and favorable positioning under
the rear entrance region of the jet streak. Steering level flow
looks perhaps a touch slower than previous days for a subsequently
slightly higher flooding threat, but still believe the higher
potential for flooding will come from any training cells (which
will certainly be possible).
There is still general model consensus depicting an expanding
ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners region, with some
variability in ridge axis placement come Sunday and beyond. An
acceleration of the warming trend does look likely Sunday through
Tuesday, by which time highs may be able to climb into the lower
90`s if the ridge ultimately centers over Colorado. Sunday should
be notably drier with much reduced storm chances, seeing the main
precipitation potential focus over the higher mountain terrain,
with lesser coverage and intensity.
The picture becomes less clear for Monday. Placement of the ridge
axis and associated NW flow aloft on its northeast periphery
could dictate moisture levels, and ensembles are not in agreement
on PWAT values Monday afternoon, with a significant range of
possibilities depicted. There are signs of a potential jump in
instability, especially for the eastern plains, which could
provide for a bit of a surprise. Have adjusted PoPs upward
slightly for Monday given this variability and upper end
potential, with at least a slight chance of precipitation now for
all of the lower elevations.
Interestingly, there`s more consensus on drier conditions by
Tuesday, along with more amplification to the ridge. Consequently,
temperatures will continue to climb and the likelihood of highs
well into the 90`s is on the rise based on the latest trends. Will
maintain isolated PoPs mainly for the higher terrain in the
afternoon, continuing into Wednesday, but most look to stay dry
during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 611 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Latest radar/satellite trends plus the high res models all
pointing to no lightning at the terminals the remainder of the
evening. Thus, have taken that out of the TAFs. Winds should go
east and remain that way until about midnight when they should be
more SE at APA and DEN. VRB at BJC is expected. Around 6 or 7 AM a
northerly push moves across the terminals with an increased
chance of IFR CIGs. They should be short lived and confidence
isn`t all that high so will continue to use a TEMPO group for the
low CIG potential. For DEN, there is a hint of low CIG earlier
than 6 AM, more like 1-2 AM. Confidence is very low in low CIGs
before 6 AM at DEN so for now just using a prevailing SCT015
group. After 10 AM VFR conditions are expected to prevail, and by
midday winds should be ENE 10-15 kts across the terminals. Friday
isn`t looking like TSRA will be widespread nor particularly over
the terminals. Chances overall of direct impacts to the terminals
are low, and for now we are handling with TEMPO groups.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Strong to severe storms will continue through the evening hours.
Biggest threat for flash flooding will be over the Cameron Peak
burn area and also under any of the supercells that form. On
Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will occur.
These storms will be capable of heavy rain again, but will be moving
a decent speed, which will keep the flash flood threat low.
On Saturday, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return, with
likely greater coverage and intensity. Flash flood threat will
increase slightly both for the Cameron Peak burn scar and for the
plains, mainly given the greater thunderstorm potential and
possibility of training cells, as steering level flow doesn`t
appear to change all that much compared to Friday. Still, the
primary threat will be large hail again, but with soils
essentially at saturation east of the Divide, it would only take
1-2 stronger storms over a particular area to cause some flooding
concerns.
The pattern then looks to turn generally drier from Sunday onward,
with much reduced precipitation chances and limited to no flooding
concerns. The one caveat is Monday...there are some differences in
model solutions, and some potential for afternoon thunderstorms if
the right ingredients align. Eastern plains would be favored for
such activity, will lower chance of any impacts to the burn
scars/higher terrain.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schlatter
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...Schlatter
HYDROLOGY...Meier/Rodriguez
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
546 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Highlights:
- Rain chances continue into Friday; end Friday evening
- Abnormally cool daytime temperatures on Friday
- Elevated risk of rip currents at the beach
Recent WV/IR satellite and KBRO doppler radar imagery shows a
weak- modest MCV feature anchored along the TX/MX coastline. This
feature has produced numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
offshore, with more scattered-type convection inland. As of 2 PM
CDT, doppler radar has estimated anywhere from 2 to 6+ inches of
rain has fallen just off the Lower Texas coast since midnight,
with amounts ranging from a few hundreths of an inch to about one
to two inches for a few inland locations across the Rio Grande
Valley. Additional one to two inches of rain is possible through
this afternoon and into this evening, with locations east of
US-281/I-69C expected to see the highest amounts.
Latest hi-res model guidance indicates a lull in rainfall
activity late this afternoon or by this evening, but has
convection reforming overnight tonight and through the morning
Friday. The exact evolution of this is still unknown and trends
will be monitored through the remainder of the day. The Weather
Prediction Center has maintained much of Deep South Texas in a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall in the latest Day 1 ERO. The
upper-level disturbance, responsible for the rain today, is
forecast to ride up the TX coast tonight before shifting eastward
through the day on Friday. Therefore, overall rain chances look
less likely on Friday (generally 20-50% chance). However, PWATs
will remain well above 2 inches through Friday afternoon before
trending downwards Friday evening. These high PWATs suggests that
any precipitation that falls will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall at times. Much drier air is forecast to infiltrate the
region as mid-level ridging builds in late Friday afternoon and
into the evening, ending precipitation chances.
As far as temperatures, highs on Friday will range from the low-
mid 90s along and east of I-69C to mid-upper 90s west of the I-69C
corridor. Heat indices are anticipated to climb between 105-110F
during the afternoon hours due to less cloud cover and lower rain
chances. Meanwhile, low temperatures will remain a degree or two
above seasonal averages with lows ranging from the mid-upper 70s
and lower 80s over the next couple of nights.
An elevated risk of rip currents are expected to continue for South
Padre Island and Boca Chica beaches through the short-term period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Key messages:
- Persistent marine convection through the weekend
- Above average temperatures
Ridging will persist to the west and east of South Texas, with a
modest weakness over the West Gulf. Anticyclonic Gulf flow will
drive steady southeast winds and ample low level moisture over the
area, especially that derived from the tropical bathwater of the
Southwest Gulf. Hence, marine convection and sea breezes will be
possible through the weekend, though diminishing somewhat each day
as western ridging builds east. The immediate lower Texas Coast
is in a general thunderstorm outlook for day 3, Saturday. Tropical
cyclone activity itself will likely continue to keep a low
profile.
Saturday rain chances show some westward penetration and hence
cloud cover will be enhanced while high temperatures will be
slightly moderated, barely breaching the century mark out west.
After Saturday, West Gulf weakness will fill a bit, and upper
ridging will play a bigger role overhead, allowing temperatures to
trend upward the remainder of the forecast under sunnier skies.
High temperatures out west will surmount the century mark Saturday
and beyond. This will lead to elevated afternoon heat index
values (105 to 110 degrees) and at least the threat of heat
advisory criteria each afternoon. The NBM was maybe a little
generous with dew points, threatening frequent excessive heat
warning criteria, so followed the lead of the previous shift and
given the uncertainty of a forecast still a few days out, went
with the CONSALL blend for dew points which brought heat index
values down a bit. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 75 to
80 degree ballpark.
With the drier weather expected next week, fuels will tend to dry
out, and relative humidity values will dip into the 20s out west.
Afternoon winds will become breezy, reaching 15 mph at 20 feet
for some areas. Wildfire growth and spread potential will slowly
increase through next week, reaching borderline rangeland fire
statement criteria.
Due to persistent southeast flow, wave heights will remain
moderate to slightly elevated, prompting elevated (moderate or
high) rip current risk through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Some shower activity remains over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley at this time. Additional convection is forecast for
the overnight hours, with timing of it determined from the HRRR
model. Drier weather is anticipated to begin settling in on
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Now through Friday Night...Buoy 42020 has been reporting seas
around 4 to 5 feet with a dominant wave period of 6 or 7 seconds
for most of the day today with moderate southeasterly winds.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist
through the afternoon and possibly into this evening and may pose
a localized threat of strong winds and higher waves. Otherwise,
diurnal upticks in the south to southeast winds can be expected
along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Mariners will
need to exercise caution over these areas during the afternoon
hours when winds become moderate to fresh.
Saturday through Tuesday night...Moderate to occasionally fresh
southeast winds will continue through the long term as a general
pattern of high pressure persists over the Gulf. Diurnal wind
strengthening may lead to afternoon/evening small craft should
exercise caution conditions on the Laguna Madre, if not borderline
weekend small craft advisory conditions . Wave heights will be
mainly moderate but could become slightly elevated at times due to
the persistent onshore flow. The pattern will allow for tropical
moisture to move north from the Southwest Gulf, bringing isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 79 92 80 93 / 50 40 10 20
HARLINGEN 76 93 77 96 / 30 40 10 10
MCALLEN 78 94 79 98 / 30 20 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 95 77 100 / 40 20 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 81 89 / 50 50 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 91 79 94 / 50 40 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1046 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide to the east tonight into Friday as a
cold front approaches. The cold front will stall in the area
Friday evening into the weekend. Low pressure will track
northward along the stalled boundary early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030pm update...
Otherwise, METSAT imagery indicates fog and stratus is
parked along the coast and webcams such as Stonington confirm.
Expect fog and stratus to advect inland tonight, but do not
expect it to get too far north of Rt 1 and do not see it
advecting as far inland as Bangor.
A very muggy night remains in store across the entire area north
of the coast with lows only dipping into the upper 60s.
Potentially strong storms remain a threat Friday
afternoon...mainly in the northern half of the forecast area.
Previous discussion...
The upper level ridge will continue through tonight. High-res
models show the convective showers starting to wrap through late
evening and early tonight as more stable air moves in. The
usual patchy fog will start to move in with the marine layer
across the Downeast coast tonight. Thought the skies will be
much clearer than other nights, temps will be much warmer in the
upper 60s per the 925mb model temps. The only area that will
see cooler temps is the coast with the onshore flow.
By Friday, a weak surface cold front will approach from the NW.
Isolated showers will begin the the NW in the morning, through
high res has slowly backed off on the timing. Decided to leave
the morning hours in the shower risk due to possible morning
instability. By the afternoon, morning sunshine, warming temps
into the 80s, and plentiful instability will start to move in
with the front. HRRR reflectivity show isolated thunderstorms
beginning in the early afternoon well ahead of the front. As
CAPE starts to increase toward >2000 J/kg and lapse rates climb,
the boundary of thunderstorms will start to set up and move SE.
As of this update, the main concern for these thunderstorms
will be the gusty winds with the collapsing storms and the heavy
rain due to PWAT values near 1.75 inches and a large moist warm
cloud layer. Cannot rule out hail within these thunderstorms,
but with the weak shear and mid level lapse rates, hail will
most likely be small. Temps expected to be in the 80s and humid
on Friday with heat indices in the low 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By Fri evening storms will be on the wane with loss of diurnal htg
though still looking at showers acrs the northwest and the Central
Highlands until around midnight. Given warm and humid airmass
remaining over the region and closer to the boundary expect that off
and on showers and/or drizzle will continue thru the overnight.
Southern stream s/wv currently spinning off of the Carolina coast
wil move northeast twd the region Fri night with sfc low just to the
south of Cape Cod on Sat afternoon. Onshore flow will bring marine
layer back into Downeast for Fri night and early Sat morning. Temps
on Saturday will once again be in the low-mid 80s acrs the north
with temps over srn areas around 70F. Another round of storms
expected Sat afternoon.
Southerly flow continues Sat night with another surge of the marine
layer with areas of fog creeping into Downeast areas. With sfc low
heading up twd Nova Scotia expect that sfc boundary will back to the
west and though chances for storms continue acrs the northwest in
the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
H5 trof and upr lvl jet will induce cyclogenesis late Sun night over
the NY Bight. Some disagreement among guidance as to whether wrn
zones will be affected by showers Sun night into Monday. Have
continued with likely pops late Sun night into Mon evening with yet
another round of storms Mon afternoon. By Tue morning sfc low likely
to be in the vicinity of the Gulf with showers continuing through
Tuesday before brief ridge builds in at some point through mid-
week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...VFR tonight and Friday.
Conditions will decrease in scattered to isolated thunderstorms
Friday afternoon. Expect possible gusty winds, small hail, and
heavy rain with these storms.
Downeast Terminals...Mainly VFR this evening. For BGR,
conditions will start to decrease late tonight to MVFR in low
cigs and patchy fog. For BHB, conditions decrease early tonight
to IFR/LIFR in low cigs and areas of fog. For Friday, conditions
will improve Friday morning to MVFR, then IFR before noon.
SHORT TERM:
Fri night-Sun...MVFR in possible storms at Aroostook terminals Fri
night with MVFR/IFR thru Sat morning in patchy fog. IFR at Downeast
terminals Fri and Sat night, improving to low MVFR each afternoon. S
5-15kts in the afternoon, light overnight.
Sun night-Tue...IFR each night and early morning for Downeast
terminals in fog and low cigs, improvement to low MVFR each
afternoon. Mainly VFR at Aroostook terminals outside of showers
and tstms. SSE 5-15kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
tonight and Friday. Low visibility in patchy fog.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas well below small craft levels through
early next week. Visibilities will be significantly reduced in
dense fog at time over the weekend and possibly into early next
week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Caribou has currently tied its record of 91F for today. The
record high is 91F, set in 1976.
A record high low is possible Friday at Caribou. The record is
65F set in 2013. The current forecast is 68F.
None of the other sites are as likely to set records during the
next two days.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...LaFlash/MCW
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/MCW/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/MCW/Buster
Climate...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
956 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
...Short Term Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
A few quick notes regarding the forecast mainly for the rest
of tonight- early Friday AM (through around 12Z/7AM):
1) Earlier updated our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) to add
some more location/timing detail...please refer to this for a
quick overview as current thinking trends remain intact.
2) Just within the last hour some spotty weak high-based have
developed into our far southwestern CWA (mainly Furnas/Gosper),
and appear to be sparked by the presence of a subtle mid level
wave and associated mid-level moisture advection.
3) Leaning fairly heavily on trends from latest HRRR runs for the
very short term, expect a gradual eastward development of this
ongoing isolated/scattered activity overnight. However, as the
late night hours wear on, MOST activity (especially 1 AM through
sunrise) in our CWA should tend to favor two areas: 1) in our KS
zones, along the far northern periphery of robust/likely severe
convection diving southeastward across western KS...2) within our
northern Neb counties (mainly north of I-80), either due to the
arrival of a completely separate convective cluster/complex out of
the WY/NE/SD border area, or activity that develops "overhead"
out of ahead it within the exit region of a modest 30-40 KT south-
southwesterly low level jet.
4) Although cannot completely rule out a rogue marginally-severe
storm overnight (especially with seasonably-strong deep layer wind
shear of 40-50KT), also seasonably modest instability of mainly
only 500-1000 J/kg (rooted mainly in the 850-700 millibar layer)
SHOULD keep things from getting too "out of hand" (mainly small
hail, localized heavy rain, perhaps gusty winds).
5) Looking beyond 12Z/7AM, will defer to incoming night shift to
further refine trends, as there is some uncertainty even at this
close time range, but latest HRRR trends seem to support
INCREASING chances for post-sunrise/daylight convection. At least
for now, have kept fairly high PoPs (50-80) going through at least
mid-morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Key Messages:
* Showers and thunderstorms possible starting late this evening
and going into the overnight hours as a disturbance makes its
way eastward off of the high plains. Some of these may be strong
to severe, and a Marginal Risk is in effect for marginally
severe hail and gusty winds.
* Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend,
before temperatures return to near or slightly above seasonal
normals to start next week.
* Sporadic chances for showers and thunderstorms are in the
forecast through the middle of next week, with the best chances
Friday afternoon and evening, Monday evening, Tuesday evening,
and Wednesday evening.
For tonight, an upper level disturbance in westerly flow aloft
will help to intensify currently developing high plains
convection and carry it east over the area overnight. Models
continue to indicate these storms developing into an MCS tonight
over southern Kansas, with potentially another locus of activity
across northern Nebraska. Most of any severe weather is expected
to remain to the southwest, but as instability increases over the
area late tonight, there will be the possibility for some
marginally severe thunderstorm wind gusts and marginally severe
hail with storms that move in. Currently think thunderstorms start
to move into the area late this evening, with the best chance for
any severe weather between around midnight and 6 AM. Areas of
rain and likely non-severe thunderstorms will continue beyond that
well into the day Friday though. High temperatures Friday will be
below normal especially to the north and east where cloud cover
and showers are expected to linger a bit longer into the day.
Highs will range from the low 70s to the low 80s. Another upper
level wave will move across the region Friday night but
precipitation is expected to remain to the south, with just a
slight chance across our far southern counties.
Saturday and Sunday...
Temperatures will remain below normal with highs mainly in the
70s Saturday and in the upper 70s and low 80s Sunday. Another wave
will develop to the lee of the Rockies Saturday afternoon, but
surface high pressure over the eastern Dakotas is expected to keep
most of the precipitation west of the area, with the possible
exception being our far western counties to which I introduced a
slight chance into the forecast...that being said, the majority of
the area is expected to remain dry during the day. Sunday is
expected to remain dry.
Next week...
As temperatures begin to climb Monday afternoon (highs will range
from the mid 80s to low 90s), instability will begin to get
stronger. While there are only slight chance in the PoPs for now,
Monday evening and overnight will be something to look more
closely at as models are beginning to favor a fairly strong
shortwave moving through. With the forecast instability, it will
not take much to fire off some storms...its a little too early to
start talking about severe storms with much confidence, but we`ll
see what things look like as this gets closer. Instability and
hotter temperatures will return again Tuesday, along with another
chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening. This pattern is expected
to repeat Wednesday and Thursday, although temperatures beginning
to fall again moving into the latter half of next week may limit
thunderstorm potential.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
- General overview:
This is admittedly a rather complex/uncertain TAF period with
regard to especially ceiling trends (how low can it go?) and
rain/thunderstorm potential/likelihood. Even wind direction
carries some decent uncertainty especially later in the period
Friday afternoon. About the only "straightforward" part of the
period is right away these first 7-9 hours, as confidence is
relatively-high in continued VFR ceiling/visibility and
rain/thunderstorm-free conditions. Will break it down in more
detail by topic...
- Ceiling/visibility/rain-thunderstorm potential:
Although a low-end VFR ceiling is possible at times, confidence is
overall-high in continued VFR and rain/thunderstorm-free
conditions through at least 07Z KEAR/09Z KGRI. Thereafter, things
admittedly get more muddled. For one thing, although this
forecaster generally tries to avoid unduly-long stretches of
generic "vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) in prevailing groups, there
is enough model data keeping showers/storm chances going at least
in the GENERAL area that felt compelled to run with VCTS
throughout the remainder of the period 07Z onward KEAR/09Z onward
KGRI. However, NOT enough confidence in timing/occurrence to go
with any outright prevailing TSRA yet. As for ceiling, some raw
model guidance "tanks" ceiling all the way down to IFR for perhaps
several hours Friday morning (and maybe even into at least early
afternoon). However, given the propensity for thunderstorm
activity/outflow to often disrupt (or at least delay) the onset
of prevailing very low ceiling, opted to take a somewhat
conservative approach by "hinting" at IFR mainly 12-20Z with a
"SCT008" mention, but keeping prevailing ceiling at MVFR "BKN015".
Again, PLENTY of fine tuning likely in store here in later TAF
issuances. As for visibility, maintained no worse than low-end VFR
throughout for now (6SM), but obviously any passing storms could
briefly cause sub-VFR, and there is probably also a non-zero
chance of at least light fog as well Friday AM (for now though
feel winds should be just strong enough to work against this).
- Winds:
High confidence in at least these first 7-9 hours (generally
southeasterly at 5-10KT). However, beyond that some question marks
arise. For one thing, one often-fairly reliable higher-res model
is hinting at increasing chances for thunderstorm-related outflow
to at least briefly disrupt prevailing conditions sometime around
sunrise. Then later in the period (and completely independent of
thunderstorm influences), there are some modest model timing
differences regarding the arrival of a weak cold front expected to
shift winds to northerly around 10KT (mainly regarding whether
this boundary arrives closer to 21Z or 00Z). For now have gone
toward the earlier side for this northerly switch, with a
transition to a more southerly/southwesterly breeze likely earlier
in the day ahead of this boundary.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1022 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure centered over the central Plains and across Minnesota
early this afternoon. Slight cold advection via northwest low
level winds and steep low level lapse rates have contributed to a
widespread fair weather cloud field across the region. Conditions
are noticeably cooler and less humid than at this time yesterday with
temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to middle 70s over
northeast WI at 2 pm. With high pressure moving across the region
over the next 24 hours, forecast concerns mainly revolve around
cloud and temp trends.
Tonight...The center of the high should be right over Wisconsin
leading to ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Clear skies,
light winds, and low dewpoints should allow temperatures to fall
into the 40s northwest of the Bay and Fox Valley. Cool places
like Land O` Lakes and Tomahawk could get down into the upper 30s
for an hour or two.
Friday...The surface high will shift to the central Great Lakes,
but will still provide another beautiful summer day with highs in
the 70s, low humidity, and a light breeze. Skies will start out
sunny but some middle or high clouds will arrive in the
afternoon. Precip should remain off to our southwest during the
afternoon.
.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
An unsettled pattern will set up for this forecast period with
chances for showers and thunderstorms at times through at least
midweek next week. High and low temperatures will be at or fluctuate
around normal by a few degrees each day.
Weather conditions for the forecast area will be dependent on an
upper-level closed low forecast to drop south over central Manitoba
then pivot back north towards Hudson Bay by early next week. As the
low moves along its journey, multiple shortwaves will drop into the
Upper Mississippi Valley and bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms at times through next week.
The first chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives late Friday
night and continues through Saturday. Despite the NAM continuing to
bring a strong shortwave and precip over the forecast area late
Friday night into Saturday, it continues to be an outlier. Other
guidance keeps this shortwave and precip further south, with the
only precip over the forecast area moving in from the northwest from
a weak shortwave and cold front. Northern WI will have the best
chance for precip with this weak shortwave. By Saturday evening,
models indicate the loss of daytime heating will cause the precip to
dissipate as it drops south.
Models continue to show the next chance for precip between the
Monday and Tuesday time frame with the next shortwave and associated
cold front dropping south across the forecast area. Beyond Tuesday,
additional shortwaves will continue to circulate around the main
upper-level closed low, keeping chances for additional showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast at times through at least midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
VFR conditions will continue through Friday evening. The only
exception will be across northern Wisconsin where MVFR/IFR
conditions are possible due to fog from 06z-13z Friday. Light
and variable winds tonight will become southeast/south at 5
to 10 knots late Friday morning and afternoon. Fair weather
cumulus clouds will develop in the late morning and afternoon
on Friday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kruk
AVIATION.......Eckberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Highlights:
1) Cool - below seasonal normal
2) Chances for showers and storms tonight - mid Sunday
Challenges:
1) Precipitation chances and respective coverage
2) Afternoon temperatures Friday
Changes:
1) Delayed timing for precipitation tonight-Friday
2) Slight increase to temperatures on Friday
The same record keeps playing along with the next round of showers
and thunderstorms expected to move in tonight into early Friday
morning. Convective initiation is anticipated this evening/tonight
along the Front Range in eastern Colorado where all hazards will
remain possible. This activity is expected to track east southeast
into the overnight hours. CAMs suggest the initial development is
between 0-3Z(7-10PM). The HRRR has had a better handle on the
overnight convection in the past couple of nights thus the trend was
in this direction. Therefore the precipitation chances have been
delayed until mainly after midnight then lingering into the morning
hours. Again the question is the eastward extent of the activity
with the highest confidence in the west. Stronger shear and higher
instability exists in eastern Colorado and western Kansas thus this
would be the focused area for severe storms as depicted in the
latest convective outlook by the Storm Prediction Center. This
outlook has been refined even further than this morning. Given the
strong shear, there is still a possibility for a strong to severe
storm with up to 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail. The best
chance would be any activity clipping the western fringe of the
forecast area particularly Kingman and Harper counties. Better
moisture transport exists in those areas as well giving additional
fuel the environment.
The mesoscale convective system (MCS) quickly tracks to the
southeast and is in Oklahoma by mid day Friday. Since there is some
question of the coverage of the precipitation and the quick exit,
this would allow for a longer recovery time. It was decided to
increase the temperatures on Friday by a few degrees. If the
coverage is greater or lasts longer, then this would definitely
hamper the forecast highs as occurred yesterday. Depending on any
residual boundaries from the MCS, this will be the factor for the
subsequent round of showers and storms Friday evening-night. Closer
initial development would mean an earlier arrival. Thus if you have
any outdoor plans, stay weather aware and check the latest forecast.
The best chances will be closer to and after midnight once more. SPC
has shifted the outlook for this time period as well with better
instability and shear over western Kansas into the Panhandles.
Given anomalous precipitable water values, moderate to heavy
rainfall will be a factor with any of the activity in the coming
days. This combined with multiple days of precipitation could lead
to flooding concerns. Thankfully the daytime breaks allow for some
evaporation and/or soaking in by the surface. The Weather Prediction
Center has modified qpf and respective rainfall outlooks given the
latest guidance.
Below seasonal normal temperatures are anticipated through the
weekend with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s or 5 to 15
degrees below typical. Of course there may be tweaks to this
guidance and its respective location. Precipitation amounts with any
convection can be quite challenging to accurately forecast for any
given location.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Highlights:
1) Warmer - back near seasonal normal next week
2) Off-and-on slight chances for showers and storms
Challenges: Precipitation chances
A ridge will build in the west at the end of the weekend into early
next week. This leaves the Central Plains in between this ridge and
the trough off to the northeast. Subtle waves lead to slight chances
for showers and storms each day in the extended with little
confidence in occurrence and location. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, temperatures should moderate and return closer to
seasonal normal with forecast values around 90 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2023
MVFR conditions are expected to settle in through the overnight
hours as showers and storms begin to enter the area after midnight.
Current model guidance suggests these will move southeast with
central and south central Kansas being the expected impacted areas,
though impacts to KSLN can`t be ruled out at this time. Heavy
rainfall will remain the main threat for showers and storms tonight
into the morning hours on Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 66 83 65 79 / 70 80 80 30
Hutchinson 64 83 63 80 / 80 80 60 20
Newton 65 82 64 79 / 70 80 70 30
ElDorado 65 83 65 78 / 60 80 80 40
Winfield-KWLD 66 83 66 79 / 70 80 80 40
Russell 64 82 61 79 / 90 60 20 10
Great Bend 64 82 62 78 / 90 50 40 10
Salina 66 82 63 81 / 50 50 30 10
McPherson 64 82 62 78 / 80 80 50 20
Coffeyville 66 83 68 82 / 50 70 90 60
Chanute 66 83 67 81 / 60 70 70 50
Iola 65 83 66 80 / 40 60 50 50
Parsons-KPPF 66 83 68 82 / 60 80 90 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
...Scattered to numerous severe storms will be likely over portions
of the plains this evening through early morning tomorrow and there
could be more severe storms again tomorrow over the plains...
Key messages:
1) Scattered to numerous severe storms will be likely over the
plains through the early this evening through early tomorrow
morning. Very large destructive hail of 3 inches or greater in
diameter, as well as damaging outflow winds up to 90 mph, and even a
few tornadoes will be possible.
2) Scattered thunderstorms will occur over the higher terrain
tomorrow afternoon and then make their way over the plains by late
afternoon and through the evening hours. Some of these storms will
likely become severe and may also contain large hail, damaging
winds, and a slight risk of a tornado or two.
3) There could be some patchy fog and drizzle possible over parts of
El Paso and Pueblo counties during the morning hours tomorrow.
Detailed discussion:
Currently and through tonight...
Satellite imagery shows that most of the lower stratus deck has
continued to mix out and diminish over a good portion of the plains.
There The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows...
The same persistent east-southeasterly flow in the lower levels has
continued to bring in more saturated air throughout the evening with
dewpoints getting into the low 60s all the way back up against the
mountains. As how it was yesterday, depending on how much of the
stratus mixes out will determine just how unstable it will become
over the eastern plains by later this evening. That being said, it
is worth noting that high resolution models, even the HRRR with
having a dry-mixing bias, have been struggling handle the amount of
CIN in place and have underestimated the development and intensity
of projected reflectivity as a result. Similar to yesterday has been
the erosion of the stratus deck being over the southern I-25
corridor initially earlier this morning. If this is any indication
of persistent forecasting, then this area may again be the first to
have a severe thunderstorm develop this afternoon as the lower
levels continue to destabilize more rapidly with more efficient
surface heating. Although, what may prevent this from occurring is
drier air moving in from the west in the mid levels, which may
suppress storm initiation over the southern Sangres.
CAMs have been generally consistent with most of the convection
developing around the Palmer Divide area early this evening and then
having a few discrete cells merging into an MCS later in the evening
and moving southeastward over the eastern plains to the Kansas
border by around 2 to 3 AM. Given the high amount of MUCAPE topping
over 3000 J/kg in some areas, as well as very strong effective bulk
shear between 60 and 70 kts over most of the plains, it is likely
that storms not affected by surface capping will become severe with
the potential of producing very large and destructive hail of 2 to 3
inches or possibly greater, and damaging straight-line outflow winds
up to 90 mph. Also, given increasing low-level helicity mainly east
of the I-25 corridor, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
especially over far eastern El Paso County and south-southeast to
eastern Las Animas County, and eastward to the CO/KS border.
Low level moisture is going to remain in place over the plains with
a stratus deck reforming and overcast skies will be expected again
tonight. There could also be some areas of patchy fog or drizzle
possible again, especially over northern El Paso County with
upsloping over this area. It will be generally mostly clear over the
higher terrain. Lows will be around the upper 50s to the low 60s
fore the plains, and 40s to low 50s for high country.
Tomorrow...
The low level stratus deck is going to stick around until the
earlier morning hours tomorrow and not remain in place as long. This
will keep the environment near the surface relatively saturated,
with dewpoints likely remaining in the 50s through the course of the
day for most of the plains. This will further enhance the
destabilization and allow for high CAPE values in excess of 3000
J/kg to be shifted a little further south and eastward as there will
be better mixing further west. This better mixing will also allow
for the convective temperature to be achieved and capping possibly
broken earlier and further westward than previous days. Because the
conditionally unstable environment is already in place, along with
effective bulk shear still quite strong and greater than 50 kts in
most areas with steep lapse rates by mid afternoon, this could once
again set the stage for there to be some severe storms.
Most of the latest CAM guidance has El Paso and Pueblo counties, and
near the Raton Mesa as having initial convection by early afternoon
tomorrow. Given earlier convective more probable, coverage of storms
could be greater tomorrow, especially further west along the I-25
corridor. With all of the aforementioned parameters in
consideration, if storms do become severe, they will likely produce
very large hail again of 2 inches in diameter and perhaps strong
outflow winds of 70 mph or greater. A tornado or two will also be
possible, although I do suspect not as high of a chance as today due
to lower SRH values, and more confined to the far southeastern
plains where there is better low level helicity. High temperatures
will be even warmer tomorrow over the plains and closer to the
seasonal average, which will likely also aid in better updraft
intensification and sustainability of thunderstorms. -Stewey
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
Key Messages:
1) Storm chances across eastern Colorado persisting into the early
Weekend.
2) Warmer and drier for the late weekend into early next week.
Friday night-Saturday night...Models continue to indicate minor
waves embedded within moderate west to northwest flow aloft across
the Intermountain West through the Northern High Plains through
the end of the work, as upper level high pressure builds across
the Southern High Plains through the Southern Rockies and into
the Desert Southwest. This will keep generally dry, warm and breezy
conditions across western portions of the area through this period,
with meteorological critical fire conditions likely through the afternoon
and evenings. The latest fuel status from land management agencies
remains non critical, however, will need to continue to monitor as
said warm and breezy conditions prevail. Further east, we will continue
to see chances of showers and storms, with severe weather possible, as
low level moisture ebbs and flows across the southeast Plains. SPC has
the southeast plains in a marginal to slight risk of severe storms
Friday and again on Saturday. Temperatures across western portions of
the area expected to be at to slightly above seasonal levels, with
near to below seasonal temperatures expected across eastern Colorado.
Sunday-Wednesday...The upper high remains progged to build across
the Great Basin and into central Rockies later in the weekend into
early next week, leading to a warming and drying trend areawide.
The ridge over the Rockies flattens again into the middle of next week,
leading to a slow increase in available moisture and increasing chances
of showers and storms, mainly across eastern Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jul 6 2023
VFR conditions at KCOS and KPUB will return to MVFR and possibly IFR
criteria at KPUB, and return to IFR and possible LIFR criteria at
KCOS due to lowering CIGs/BR, mainly after 06Z. They should improve
again at both stations after 14Z or shortly thereafter. SHRA and
TSRA could be possible in and around the vicinity of KCOS and KPUB
through this evening and then tomorrow, with greater confidence of
this occurring at both stations after 18Z tomorrow. If TSRA does
develop, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR
criteria and result in periodic windshifts and increased wind
speeds. VFR conditions VFR are expected at KALS throughout the
forecast period and winds at this terminal should be more diurnally
influenced with gusty SW`ly winds during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Winds will be mainly synoptically driven with morning
for KCOS and KPUB with east-southeasterly flow near the surface, and
then become more diurnally towards the end of the forecast period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD