Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/23/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1147 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Current forecast largely remains on track with quiet weather in
place. Have nudged up low temperatures a few degrees for tonight as
some mid/high cloud is expected to slide overhead from SE to NW
overnight. Overnight temperatures are expected to dip into the upper
50s across most interior areas of northern Michigan with slightly
warmer temperatures in the low 60s closer to the lakeshores.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 420 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
High Impact Weather Potential...minimal. Elevated fire danger into
this evening.
Weak surface high pressure continues to extend w to e across the
northern lakes. Closer to this ridge, winds in northern areas are
light/variable, but as you head south an easterly breeze becomes a
touch gusty. Considerable cu has formed away from Lk Huron in
northern lower MI, with lesser amounts in eastern upper. This cu
is squatty here at APX. A little more vertical development is seen
in nw lower MI, where convergence is higher along an inland-moving
lake breeze. No signs of precip thus far. The air is generally
hazy; at the moment GLR/TVC both have 5SM vsbys.
We appear to be capped to deep convection, given current surface
conditions. A meager 100-300j/kg of SbCape is present in
central/western parts of northern lower MI. But a cap is
represented by 725mb temps of 7-8C. It isn`t completely impossible
for us to squeeze out a shower along lake breezes, but the chance
isn`t worth a mention in the grids.
HRRR smoke/haze progs suggest that the somewhat narrow plume of
smokier/hazier air will continue to progress westward tonight.
Haze will be mentioned outright in the grids in all but se
sections. This back edge gradually migrates nw-ward tonight, and
by 7 am the only remaining mention is in western Chip/Mack Cos.
Trailing behind the better smoke/haze, layered mid-high synoptic
cloud cover will push in from the se. Skies will be mostly cloudy
by dawn in the se half of the forecast area. This will help keep
min temps a little milder than they have been in that area.
Lows in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 420 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal attm...though rain/storms
possible Saturday night into Sunday...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Longwave troughing, with a handful of niblets in the flow, across
the western US leading to southwesterly flow through the middle
portion of the continent. Bulk of the activity is along/ahead of
this region and its resultant surface reflection, which extends from
Hudson Bay down into UT...amid a plume of deeper moisture (pwats
greater than 1.5 inches) and a tighter thermal gradient. Ridging
still trying to hold firm across southeastern Canada, including
north of us...getting pinched by broad upper low to our south over
TN. Confluence between these features keeping surface high pressure
in place...as well as persisting the dry easterly flow (and
subsequent smoke advection). Some of the moisture/cloud cover from
the system to our south is attempting to make it into the Upper
Great Lakes...but is still struggling to some degree. Otherwise...a
surface BCZ stretches largely along the SE coast of the US (barring
FL), back into TX, where there is still leftover nocturnal
convection along the periphery of the very toasty subtropical ridge
(850mb temps +30C...yikes!!).
Upper low to continue to make a move northward through tonight and
open up...but with potent energy currently offshore of SoCal quickly
moving into the flow in the western US...anticipate our low will be
a little more progressive than it has been. For Saturday...we may
sit in between this...and the incoming trough as it rides over the
subtropical ridge...which will be the next item of note in the
forecast...and which could produce some rain and storms Saturday
night into Sunday. This being said...there are still some slight
differences in guidance that will keep some uncertainty in the
forecast for the end of the weekend into early next week...and will
likely avoid trying to get too into the weeds for now.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: Rain/storm concerns Saturday night into
Sunday...
Not out of the question there could be some shower activity across
NE Lower...particularly near Saginaw Bay/east side of the interior
higher terrain...on Friday afternoon, where there could be some
deeper moisture spinning up in here from the south. Even so...we
could still end up too dry in the lower levels to get much in the
way of convection, though it`s not impossible a little
sprinkle/shower may be able to spark along the lake breeze. Will
have to see if anything actually does try to fire today, which could
give us a bit of an indication if potential is there for
Friday...though the setup should be slightly different with a bit
more moisture around initially...which, if it were in the form of
cloud cover, could limit diurnal heating (and subsequently, our
potential for instability) to some degree. Non-zero potential again
for lake breeze convective activity across NW Lower...but still not
totally convinced we will get much of anything.
A similar idea stands for Saturday afternoon...as we sit beneath
some high pressure again between the two systems...though guidance
derived soundings suggest that if we do manage to end up more moist
than we currently expect (which I`m not going to hold my breath
over), we could actually stand a chance of breaking the cap in a few
places. Additionally, assuming winds switch around to a more
northerly idea going into Saturday with that ridge slipping in...the
focus for lake breeze convergence would likely shift back toward NE
Lower again. Still watching the current radar/satellite to see if
anything happens today...and will make note of it for the next few
days` worth of forecasts.
Things get more interesting for Saturday night into Sunday...as the
upper low approaches from the west. Does appear that an E-W oriented
boundary stalls out to our north...potentially near enough that it
could be worth keeping an eye on...if we`re able to get convection
to regenerate and drift eastward/ESE-ward along it. Not a sure bet
by any means, though...but potentially something to keep half an eye
on.
Upstream convection expected Saturday night into Sunday ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough. For now...there is some indication
that this may try to roll in Sunday morning...and guidance would
like to fire more convection later Sunday along the cold front
itself. While I`d like to believe that idea...I`m also well aware of
our tendency for storms to die out over the Lake...and/or for
morning convection to linger cloudiness through the day, with
potential to suppress later development. That being said, it`s not
impossible that we could effectively prime the atmosphere with the
early morning idea enough that any afternoon convection could
actually do something...but this is a bit of an "if" for
now...particularly noting that we`re talking about convection for 3
days from now. Additionally...worth noting that there could actually
be some slightly better wind profiles Sunday in advance of the front
than we`ve seen yet this summer...which could throw a bit of shear
into the mix. Will certainly be something to watch the next couple
days.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 420 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Watching rain potential...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
Broad idea is for the upper low to be in/over our vicinity early
next week...though guidance is still struggling a bit with how this
evolves (how deep will the low be? how quickly will it move
through?). Will have to keep an eye on this, given that a couple
weekends ago, we had similar ideas of a cutoff low bringing
rain...which ended up sitting right over us, with the precip
donutting around us. Not that this is necessarily the expectation
again...but it does throw a little bit of caution into the idea of
ramping up messaging about the potential rain for next week. Even
so...worth noting that WPC has us in marginal for excessive rainfall
for day 5 (Monday)...though again...will have to see how this
evolves. Even so...should be cooler under and behind this system,
either way.
Otherwise...beyond this trough...there are signals for the upstream
pattern to turn a little zonal for a time toward midweek or so, as
troughing attempts to move back into the western US...and additional
energy treks through the northern stream of the flow...though
again...still a lot of questions to be answered before jumping on
any bandwagons.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1137 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
VFR conditions are expected to continue across northern Michigan TAF
sites through the issuance period as HZ previously restricting VSBYs
continues to work northwest. Mid/high cloud is expected to spread
into northern Michigan tonight into Friday, along with the potential
for a few showers across mid-Michigan south of the northern Michigan
TAF sites. Otherwise, calm winds overnight will gradually increase
out of the east-northeast on Friday. Lake breezes will likely push
inland from the lakeshores Friday afternoon before weak/calm winds
are expected again Friday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 420 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
High pressure continues over the far northern lakes. This is
bringing mostly light, mostly easterly winds to the area. And this
will persist into the start of the weekend. Advisories should not
be needed. Se winds may ramp up more substantially on Sunday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJC
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...DJC
MARINE...JZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1027 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure and associated front will persist
across the Southeast through the end of the week. The front is
expected to move offshore and high pressure will build in
through the weekend, before another front approaches the area
from the northwest early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes made with the mid evening update.
Additional showers an some thunderstorms will be pivoting up
into the region during the overnight hours although recent HRRR
runs have backed off a bit on the overall coverage. Will see.
Meanwhile, we have been monitoring rainfall totals across
Allendale, Screven and Jenkins counties. Currently running 1 to
3 inches over the last 6 hours or so...a little higher in
Jenkins county. With another incoming round of heavy rainfall
about to move into Jenkins county, we have opted to hoist a
Flood Advisory for a good portion of the county. We will
continue to monitor that area.
Previous discussion...
Closed upper low continues to spin over far eastern
Tennessee/western north Carolina with an upper jet core that
stretches from southern Georgia into Virginia. Surface low
pressure sits across southern Georgia with a boundary that
extends northeastward through central South Carolina. Upper jet
entrance region forcing over top the boundary has focused most
of the precip across our far western counties over the last
several hours, with a lull continuing further eastward to the
coast.
Yet another short-wave impulse associated with the upper jet is
looking to swing out of southern Georgia and into South Carolina
later this evening and overnight. Expectation remains for
another batch of showers and some thunderstorms to expand up
into the CWA, mainly during the overnight hours. I`ve performed
some PoP cosmetic tweaks to highlight relatively lower PoPs this
evening, then ramping back up to likely-categorical for the
overnight.
No other changes to the forecast at this point.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday through Sunday: Aloft, the upper low will continue to lift
northward across the Ohio Valley and into the western Great Lakes,
leaving the Southeast still well within prominent troughing on
Friday. Then through the weekend, the trough will finally make
eastward progress and shift off the coast by Sunday. At the surface,
the nearly stationary boundary will continue to linger across the
region Friday, then shift to the coast and offshore by Sunday. For
Friday, the area will remain within a very moist atmosphere with
precipitable water values approaching 2 inches. Then through Friday
night and into Saturday, model consensus is that the bulk of the
moisture will get nudged offshore, leaving the area in precipitable
water values of 1.5 inches or less by Saturday afternoon. The end
result is that Friday is expected to be the last really active
convection day. We should see numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms through the day, with a generally low severe threat
and the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding. For
Saturday only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected, a notable decrease in coverage from the last several days.
The by Sunday, we very well may not see any convection at all.
Temperatures should be on a warming trend, with lows to mid 80s
Friday, then upper 80s Saturday, followed by upper 80s and low 90s
for Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Zonal aloft will briefly return Sunday night and Monday ahead of
upper low across the Great Lakes that will help to carve out a
trough along the Eastern Seaboard into the middle of next week. A
front is expected to sweep through late Monday and Monday night
bringing the best chance for convection during the long term period.
Behind the front, model guidance supports a dry forecast from
Tuesday onward. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal,
with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s common.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Terminals remain precip-free for the time being and largely VFR
(although there has been some MVFR cloud cover passing through
from time to time). Another round of showers and some
thunderstorms will expand up into the region during the
overnight hours, impacting the terminals in the 06Z to 10Z
timeframe.
Another lull takes shape Friday morning. But additional showers
and some thunderstorms will develop late morning and through the
afternoon. The same daily cycle we have seen over the last few
days.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions in
showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday evening and Friday
night, including brief localized conditions IFR or lower.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will decrease over the
weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: A strong marine surge continues on the waters this
afternoon with winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt common. Winds
will diminish some overnight with the passage of the vorticity
maximum late, but gusts to 25 kt still seem plausible through
much of the night. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended
until 6 AM Friday. Seas will average 4-5 ft.
Friday through Tuesday: Winds across the local waters are expected
to decrease quickly Friday morning and all Small Craft Advisories
should be down by that time. Thereafter, a more typical moderate
southwest flow will prevail into Monday with periodic surges due to
the sea breeze and during the nighttime periods. Winds could be a
bit stronger later Monday ahead of an approaching front, but should
still remain below advisory thresholds. Seas should mostly be in the
2-4 ft range. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected Friday and Friday night with gusty winds and heavy rainfall
producing visibilities below 1 NM at times.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ350-352-354-
374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1210 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Included a portion of this morning`s discussion with convection
initiation imminent across the region once again early this
afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued over the next
hour and will include most of the same counties/cities as
yesterday with most of southeast Wyoming outside of Carbon County
affected and most of the western Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon
and into this evening. Although activity maybe a bit more
isolated today compared to yesterday, once the 700mb to 800mb
temperature inversion dissipates this afternoon, thunderstorms
will become stronger and push east and northeast through this
evening. Large hail up to tennis ball size will be the primary
concern. Although, noting some low level (0-2 km) helicity in the
boundary layer as well with EHI around 2 to 4 from Albany county
eastward towards the central and northern Nebraska Panhandle.
Therefore, can not rule out one or two tornadoes with solid 0-3km
CAPE values and decent surface moisture, although not quite as
good as yesterday. Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be in effect
until 9 PM this evening, but the western Nebraska Panhandle will
see activity not starting until around 6 or 7 PM late this
afternoon.
More of the same for Friday with a greater risk for severe weather
across the plains. SPC issued an Enhanced Risk for locations east
of the I-25 corridor Friday afternoon and evening. With better
shear, impressive ML and MUCAPE, along with a potent upper level
trough moving through the area, Friday may be the busiest day of
the week with all modes of severe weather expected, including
tornadoes. Thankfully, flash flooding will start to become less
of a concern as thunderstorms are expected to move relatively fast
across the area. Will still have to watch training thunderstorms
which may result in some flooding concerns.
Previous Short Term Discussion...
issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Dilemma today will deal with timing of convection. Still seeing
that mid level (700mb) capping inversion through 21Z or so before
it breaks. HRRR and RAP simulated radar are in disagreement with
convective initiation. HRRR shows the storms beginning west of the
Laramie Range in Albany County roughly 19-20Z. RAP shows
convection beginning more east across the southeast Wyoming plains
from Cheyenne to Lusk...into the northern Panhandle after
18Z. Don`t think the severe storms will get going though until the
mid level cap breaks...so storms may develop earlier...but not be
severe until after 21Z. Storms will be severe with MUCAPE around
1500 to 1800J/KG across southeast Wyoming. 0-6km shear quite high
with 40-50kts advertised on GFS soundings. Especially in Albany
County where the HRRR is advertising the convection to start.
Both the HRRR and RAP are concentrating the convection in the
Platte/Goshen/Niobrara County area towards 00Z before it moves out
into the northern Panhandle after 00Z. Better instability though
will be down along the I-80 corridor however...so we will have to
wait and see how this convection eventually develops.
Better chances for severe storms still looks to be Friday when an
approaching upper low begins to force the surface front north and
east. GFS soundings showing much better MUCAPE around
2500-3000J/KG out in the Panhandle and around 2000-2500J/KG over
southeast Wyoming.
All modes of severe convective weather is possible today and
Friday including a few tornadoes. Better chances Friday we believe
with the better instability. SPC has Slight Risk areas outlined
for both today and Friday for portions of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Overall, no major changes to this forecast package, with possible
high winds expected Saturday and continued unsettled weather early
next week.
Both the GFS and the Euro are in good agreement with mid to upper
level low ejecting eastward across northern Wyoming through
Saturday. Minor disturbance on the southern most flank of the cell
is expected to dig across the region, kicking up wind speeds along
the way. 700mb flow has winds increasing along these disturbances in
excess of 45 to 55 knots with forecast soundings indicating those
winds can mix down to the surface. In addition, the Random Forest
Wind Model guidance has also been capturing this feature with good
signals towards a stronger winds for the wind prone areas along the
I-25 and I-80 corridors. Ultimately, gaining confidence for a decent
wind event primarily on the I-25 corridor with the Craig to Casper
gradients and the NBM v4.1 Probability of Exceeding 41kts increasing
probabilities and echoing signals from other guidance. Main
uncertainty will include the wind prone areas along the I-80
corridor, with 700mb winds keeping much further eastward. However,
surface flow maintains a more favorable direction through the
mountain gaps and the NBM v4.1 Probability of Exceeding 48kts
hovering around a 50 percent. As a result, went ahead and left winds
elevated across the wind prones in southeast Wyoming. Will need to
think about a high wind watch in the next 24 hours if these trends
continue.
Active weather continues early next week, with an upper level trough
makings its way from the western seaboard through to the
Intermountain West. Strong to severe storms will be possible under
this setup, with good moisture return across the region and PWATs
just under 1 inch.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Wyoming TAFS...Another weather disturbance and abundant low level
moisture will help produce thunderstorm development through early
evening. Isolated thunderstorms will occur at Rawlins until 01Z,
with occasional thunderstorms at Laramie and Cheyenne until 02Z,
producing wind gusts to 40 knots along with visibilities to
2 miles and ceilings from 2500 to 3500 feet AGL. Overnight
tonight, areas of fog and low clouds will develop producing
visibilities from 2 to 5 miles and ceilings from 1500 to 2500 feet
AGL from 06Z to 15Z.
Nebraska TAFS...Another weather disturbance and abundant low level
moisture will help produce thunderstorm development early this
evening. Occasional thunderstorms will occur until 03Z, producing
wind gusts to 45 knots along with visibilities reduced to 2 miles
and ceilings near 2500 feet AGL. Overnight tonight, areas of fog
and low clouds will develop between 04Z and 15Z, reducing
visibilities to 2 to 4 miles along with ceilings from 1500 to 2000
feet AGL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Minimal fire weather concerns through this weekend. Although much
drier air will push into central Wyoming starting on Friday and
lasting through the weekend, current green up conditions and
recently rainfall will inhibit any major concerns for the near
future.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT/GCC
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1053 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Various impacts from smoke and precipitation trends on Friday
afternoon will be the main forecast concerns.
SCT-BKN Cumulus clouds developed with the heating of the day,
especially in north central WI, and in parts of the Fox Valley.
Satellite also showed a thick layer of smoke edging into eastern
WI.
Smoke trends/impacts: thicker smoke will slowly advect westward
and cover most of NE/EC WI by later tonight/Friday. Smoke models
suggest that the smoke will reach the surface in parts of eastern
WI late tonight into Friday, with air quality concerns and
possible minor visibility restrictions expected. An Air Quality
Advisory remains in effect through late Friday evening. Have
adjusted sky grids to account for the thicker smoke, and made
minor downward adjustments to temperatures in eastern WI on
Friday.
Precipitation Trends on Friday Afternoon: A weak cold front is
expected to sag into the northwest part of the forecast area on
Friday afternoon, and may be enhanced by a lake breeze off Lake
Superior. PWATs will increase to around 1.5 inches and CAPE
will build to around 500 j/kg in NC WI, so scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms should develop.
Rest of the Forecast: daytime cumulus should diminish this
evening, but lingering mid-level moisture could result in
patchy cloud cover through the night and into Friday. Like last
night, patchy ground fog is expected to develop in low-lying areas
late. Lows will fall into the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs on
Friday will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s lakeside, and 85 to
90 inland. Relative humidity will remain on the low side during
the daytime.
.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
A pattern change is expected as the 500mb ridge across Ontario
breaks down while an upper low moves into Wisconsin on Sunday.
This pattern shift will result in much cooler temperatures
along with the chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday
into the first part of next week.
For Friday night, per coordination with the short term forecaster
did add areas of smoke and haze through Saturday morning. The HRRR
model did show the greatest concentration of smoke across
northeast Wisconsin. There is also a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the north.
For Saturday, latest model runs continue to slow the onset of
the rain. Have decreased the rain chances which will result in
a dry day across the east. If models continue the slower trend
tonight, may be able to decrease them even more. It is uncertain
on the trends of the smoke and haze Saturday morning, thus ended
it at 18z for now. The chances of showers and thunderstorms
increase Saturday night as the upper low approaches from the west.
Showers and storms will continue at times Sunday into Monday as
the upper low moves overhead Sunday, then east of the area Sunday
night and Monday. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to one inch are
likely in many spots. This rainfall will be helpful for the drought
stricken area. The latest drought monitor has parts of the area
in the Moderate Drought (D1) classification.
Low confidence in the low chances of rain on Tuesday, otherwise
high pressure will bring dry conditions Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The next system will bring a chance of rain Wednesday
night and Thursday. Above normal temperatures are expected
Saturday, then high temperatures should run below normal through
the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Smoke from Canadian fires will move into Eastern Wisconsin
overnight and Friday. It should be mostly elevated above the
ground, but could mix down at times and produce visibilities of 3
to 5 miles east of an Iron Mountain to Waupaca line. Otherwise VFR
conditions should continue through Friday with high based Cumulus
clouds in the afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
753 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
- Warm and windy for the rest of the day
The large upper level low will continue to dominate the pattern
today and through tomorrow. The strong easterly winds have allowed
for low level clouds to form across the region. The strong
easterly flow has allowed smoke from the Canadian wildfires to
pool along and over the lakeshore. The models, specifically
looking at the HRRR continue to show the smoke to move downwind
from Ontario and settle over Lake Michigan with lots of smoke on
the water. Winds will persist until after sunset. There should be
some improvement overnight into tomorrow.
- Possible Rain Tomorrow
The weak band of showers that moved through eastern Michigan today
had little to no precipitation in central Michigan. However it did
moisten up the lower atmosphere. More bands of precipitation will
cycle around the low tomorrow streaming in another round of clouds
with higher PWAT values with it. Coinciding with it is slightly
higher potential vort maxes which after 15Z Friday. This could
allow for showers to move into the US 127 corridor late tomorrow
morning through tomorrow afternoon. However any precipitation
should measure less than a tenth of an inch.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Main forecast concern is for Sunday. Based on NBM CWASP guidance,
Sunday afternoon looks at least marginally favorable for severe
weather across our southern forecast area given expected good
conditional instability /SBCAPE at or above 1000 J per kg/ and
increased QG forcing and stronger mid level flow associated with an
approaching upper low. In fact, SPC has already introduced a slight
risk centered south of our area across the IN/KY region, Based on
current CWASP guidance, however, would not be surprised to see the
risk area expanded north into Lower MI as we get closer to the
event. Ensembles for several runs now have been closely centered
around a few tenths of an inch of precipitation (slightly greater
south of I-96), lending good confidence to this aspect of the
forecast.
Precipitation chances continue beyond Sunday afternoon into Tuesday
thanks to the aforementioned upper low, which will broaden and stall
over the region. After this, predictability becomes far less certain
with respect to precipitation. During the course of the work week
temperatures should trend upwards towards climatology.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
VFR conditions will prevail overnight although there could be some
areas of MVFR fog near Lake Michigan. Rain showers will move north
into south central Lower Michigan on Friday. Some areas of MVFR
and patchy IFR is possible in the afternoon from LAN to JXN.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
The lake breeze dominate flow will allow for northwesterly flow
this afternoon and evening and could bring waves of 2 feet. The
easterly flow will dominate through Friday so that will keep the
wave heights to a minimum. Over the weekend the pattern starts to
change. Waves could begin to increase into Sunday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ceru
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
...Aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Key Messages:
- Thunderstorm potential continues Thursday afternoon and
overnight into Friday with some strong to severe and heavy rain
potential across southwest Nebraska.
- More significant severe weather threat Friday afternoon and evening
with Large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall the main
concerns though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
- Training thunderstorms may lead to some flooding concerns Friday night
into Saturday, particularly across much of north central
Nebraska.
- Quieter weather arrives for the latter half of the weekend with
temperatures near to slightly below normal for late June.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
This Afternoon/Tonight...scattered to widespread thunderstorms are
percolating across much of the local area. This is largely occurring
along an area of weak low-level moisture advection and mid-level
convergence. This activity is forming within an area of weak 0-6km
bulk wind difference (BWD) of 20 knots or less and MLCAPE values of
1250-1750 j/kg. Given weak focus for lift, expecting coverage to be
widely scattered away from the main area of low-level moisture
pooling. With modest instability and shear, not expecting much in
the way of a strong to severe thunderstorm threat and with loss of
daytime heating, believe activity will quickly wane through the
early evening. This thinking lines up well with latest HRRR and HREF
thinking which shows quick waning of coverage by 02-03z. Attention
then turns to thunderstorms working into southwest Nebraska off the
higher terrain. Guidance is bullish on moist upslope flow leading to
convection off the Front Range and Laramie Range further north by
late afternoon. With mean wind flow generally southwest to
northeast, expecting a largely west to east track of activity to
move across northeast Colorado and approach portions of southwest
Nebraska. With MLCAPE values in the 1000-1500 j/kg range and a
modest uptick in deep layer shear at 25-30 knots 0-6km BWD, cannot
rule out a stray strong to severe thunderstorm for areas south of
Interstate 80 and west of Highway 25 late tonight. Believe storms
will be weakening on approach however and any threat for severe
hazards being fairly limited as a result. That said, cannot rule out
an instance or two of severe hail up to 1" in diameter and 50 to 60
mph gusts. Of greater concern will be the threat for heavy rain with
PWAT values exceeding 1.2" for much of the area and nearing the 99th
percentile in NAEFS Climatology. Limiting confidence in any flooding
potential will be limited coverage, expected weakening trend, and
fairly progressive nature of the thunderstorms. Cannot rule out a
few localized areas seeing 1-2" of rainfall, but given sparse
coverage of this in areas that have seen recent heavy rains will
forgo any flood watches at this time. Clouds and southerly winds
will keep overnight lows mild, generally in the middle 50s to middle
60s or about 5 degrees above normal.
Friday/Friday Night...the day of greatest concern regarding threat
for strong to severe thunderstorms with some uncertainty with
respect to timing and location of greatest concern. General
southwesterly flow will persist locally with ridge axis situated
immediately downstream the forecast area. A mid-level trough will
track out of central California and lift north and east across the
central to northern Rockies and onto the northern Plains by late in
the day. Surface boundary stall invof the Pine Ridge will remain
steady across the northwest zones. The approach of a stronger EML
will lead to rapidly steepening mid-level lapse rates. With daytime
highs climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s, expecting a
moderately unstable atmosphere to develop by mid-afternoon with
MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 j/kg. An approaching mid-level speed max
will lead to increasing deep layer shear to the tune of 30 to 40
knots of 0-6km BWD. This will be more than supportive of organized
severe convection during the late afternoon and evening. Uncertainty
resides with forcing and whether we see afternoon activity. For now,
thinking the lack of any forcing early in the day will preclude
anything more than an isolated thunderstorm. More widespread
activity will arrive from the west late in the evening as the
greatest mid-level height falls arrive in tandem with the
orographically forced convection off the higher terrain. With shear
vectors largely parallel to the frontal boundary in the area,
expecting rapid upscale growth. Initially, discrete convection will
be capable of large hail and damaging winds but cannot rule out a
tornado or two across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills in
an area of good low-level veering hodographs, primarily in the
lowest 3km. Short-term CAMs indeed depict multiple UH swaths
tracking out of the Nebraska Panhandle with isolated supercells.
Forecast sounding analogs highlighting local significant hail events
so this will bear watching. As storms grow upscale, expecting a
transition to a mainly damaging wind threat as activity tracks into
an environment characterized by delta theta-e values approaching
negative 30 degC and DCAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg and cold pools
merge. Thinking the greatest potential for severe activity will
remain north of the Interstate 80 corridor and as such have kept the
greatest PoPs in these areas (> 55%). With a residual boundary
stalled in the area and the potential for multiple rounds of
convection in these areas, will need to be mindful of the threat for
heavy rain and localized flooding. HREF mean values suggest a
widespread area seeing 0.75"+ and ensemble max values show pockets
of 2-4". Will hold off on any flood headlines for the time being and
wait for increased confidence in placement of the greatest potential
for repeated rounds of rain. The threat for heavy rain will last
well into the early morning hours on Saturday before activity
departs to the east and drier air rapidly works in from the west.
All thunderstorms are expected to have exited the area by sunrise
Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Saturday...expecting a largely dry day across western Nebraska as
the aforementioned dry air spills out of the Great Basin. NAEFS
guidance shows a quick flip from anomalously high PWAT values to
anomalously low PWAT values by midday Saturday with mean PWATs of
0.50" for much of the area. Departing trough will lead to subsidence
and mid-level height rises for the latter half of the day which will
erode cloud cover and lead to moderating temperatures somewhat with
daytime highs climbing into the middle 80s from southwest through
north central Nebraska and the middle 70s for the far northwest.
Westerly low level flow will increase behind a passing cool front
and gusts will climb to around 25 to 35 mph for areas west of
Highway 61 and closer to 20 to 25 mph elsewhere.
Sunday and beyond...Quieter weather is expected for the start of
next week as shortwave ridging arrives ahead of the main upper-level
trough situated across the West Coast. Increasing mid-level heights
along with modest moisture in place will keep precipitation chances
at bay for Sunday into early Monday. By Monday, strong southerly low-
level flow will again advect greater moisture into the region as a
weak surface low takes shape across the central Rockies. This should
lead to at least limited potential for rain and thunderstorms
pushing off the High Plains beginning Monday with this potential
repeating Tuesday. A stronger mid-level PV anomaly will track across
the northern Plains by Wednesday and drag a cool front south into
the area. This will lead to a day of higher precipitation chances
locally with the frontal boundary though more precise timing remains
somewhat in question. As we`re able to pin down timing, expect
increasing PoPs for the Wednesday timeframe. Beyond that, southern
Plains ridging will increase with a return to a more zonal pattern
for the late week. This should help drive temperatures up slightly
though the main core of heat should remain south of the area. With
the general "Ring of Fire" pattern, expecting recurring chances for
rain and thunderstorms but day to day predictability at this range
is low confidence at best. Overall though, the pattern will favor a
continuation of rain and thunderstorm chances and so the outlook
remains fairly optimistic that we shouldn`t see the dog days of
summer just yet and this jives with the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook
favoring above normal precipitation and only a slight favor to above
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
With widely scattered thunderstorms across central Nebraska this
evening and old outflow boundaries from earlier convection still
lingering, expect wind direction will be erratic at least through
this evening until the boundary layer stabilizes with loss of
diurnal heating. Convection should trend down at TAF sites this
evening, and expect winds will settle generally at an easterly
direction early tonight with speeds generally 10kt or less. Low
stratus will bloom over the region toward daybreak with IFR/LIFR
CIGs into early Friday morning.
Guidance shows indications for late night convection to affect
KVTN but confidence in this is not high so will monitor radar
trends closely for later TAF issuances. Expect CIGs will gradually
trend up and reach VFR by late Friday morning or early afternoon.
The signal in guidance for convection tomorrow is mixed with a
trend to hold off until after this valid period so will not use
more than VCTS for Friday afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NMJ
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...MBS
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Key Messages:
- Rain chances are increasing this weekend but there is a lot of
uncertainty as to timing. Widespread rainfall looks likely
Friday night into Saturday day.
- There is a Slight Risk for severe weather Saturday but will be
dependent on the timing of the front.
Very isolated convection is popping up on the radar generally in
north central Nebraska this afternoon. It`s generally been
initiating along a gradient of CAPE that extends into southeast
South Dakota. Very little eastern motion is expected with that
instability and convection. Areas along the Missouri River and
points east will be dry tonight with POPs peaking at near 15% in
the far western CWA this evening.
Pleasant conditions are forecast for tonight with light southerly
winds and lows in the mid-60s. Light POPs are warranted along
the western edge of the CWA early Friday morning as a short-wave
drives northeast into eastern South Dakota.
Friday`s weather will feel similar to today`s with highs near 90
once again and continued light south winds. Afternoon showers and
thunder are possible in northeastern Nebraska once again with a
midlevel shortwave on the same southwest to northeast track as
those that precede it. Severe weather isn`t anticipated with the
lack of shear playing significant spoiler. PWAT values over the
90th percentile (1-2") remind us that an isolated heavy downpour
is possible.
Severe weather is looking increasingly possible with the
development of an MCS working through the state of Nebraska on
Friday night. CAMs and mid-range models are beginning to close in
on unanimity in seeing the convection of the high terrain of
WY/CO/western Nebraska coalesce into an MCS that finds its way
into eastern Nebraska riding the nose of a 40 kt LLJ. Moisture
transport would be particularly efficient. A greater number of
ensemble members are coming up with this solution. This would
bring a threat of damaging wind gusts to the area before sunrise
Saturday morning. This solution, now becoming the predominant one,
would leave severe convection less likely on Saturday with
increased cloud cover, a deeper layer of convectively disturbed
air at the surface and a higher LFC as a result.
Saturday could spell trouble if that MCS doesn`t develop, turns
further south (leaving our air mostly undisturbed), or fizzles
earlier (leaving a boundary and mostly clear skies in the area).
All modes of severe weather would be possible in this secondary
solution. The RAP falls into this camp and would produce sfc CAPE
of 3000 J/kg, deep shear of 30-50 knots, quick lapse rates, and
hodographs resembling croquet hoops. Supercells could grow
powerful quickly. The SPC rightly has an area of "hatched" hail
along and east of the Missouri River suggesting the threat of hail
over 2" (Day 3). If this solution were to verify, convective
initiation may begin quickly near Omaha and/or the Missouri River
after lunch on Saturday.
Confidence in the ultimate outcome may not be particularly high
until seeing Friday night`s radar returns. All solutions carry a
threat of isolated flooding with marginal excessive rainfall
outlooks painted across the area.
.SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
Regardless of how the severe weather evolves, drier air works in
behind Saturday`s cold front on breezy northwesterly winds. Temps
won`t be much cooler behind the front, with Sunday managing low to
mid-80s, despite the mostly sunny skies. It will be even breezier.
Mid-level ridging redevelops early next week with a shortwave
riding the ridge and bringing chance POPs to the area by Tuesday
evening.
The ridge breaks down mid-week with an upper low sweeping across
the Northern Plains and bringing another small opportunity for
showers and thunder. This may keep Nebraska and Iowa from seeing
the sweltering heat that will be developing across TX, OK, KS, and
MO late next week. The WPC has highlighted these areas for high
risk of excessive heat in "week two" with a slight chance forecast
in portions of this area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with a few
clouds at FL060-070 and SCT-BKN clouds at FL200-250. Isolated
showers are currently being observed over portions of southeast
NE, but we don`t expect any of that activity to affect KLNK. A few
models suggest that widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
could develop over eastern NE Friday afternoon. Confidence in that
occurrence at any of the terminal locations is currently too low
to include in the forecast. Otherwise, southeast winds at less
than 12 kt are expected to increase to 12-15 kt from the south
late Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1026 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
The primary near-term impact to our area will come from a long-
lived, slow-moving complex of storms over the Oklahoma/Texas
panhandle as of early afternoon. THese storms have formed along an
outflow boundary left over from last night`s convection, which is
now sharpening across our northwest Oklahoma zones from northern
Ellis to southern Woods Counties. 850 mb flow is largely parallel to
this boundary, which may encourage slow-moving, training convection,
although current radar trends suggest that cold pool amalgamation
will tend to drive that convection southward and potentially keep it
in the Texas panhandle. Other than this complex, a low chance for
storms exists across western north Texas. Severe weather is
unlikely, but gusty winds and small hail are possible.
Although humidity has been mercifully somewhat lower this afternoon,
low 70s dewpoints are creeping back into southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas. This will set the stage for an oppressive
overnight. Given the amount of humidity, temperatures will be slow
to fall and will likely not reach the dewpoint by daybreak, with
widespread low 70s possible.
Storm coverage tomorrow looks like it will be greater than today as
an impulse brings 40-50 knots of 500 mb flow into our western zones.
RAP forecast soundings show MLCAPE values reaching 4,500 J/kg with
near-total erosion of the cap across western Oklahoma, in addition
to 50 knots of effect bulk shear. This should be sufficient for
severe weather, but several factors complicate this forecast. First
of all, the forcing mechanism for storms is nebulous at most. THe
dryline should remain back in the Caprock region, and southerly
storm motions may spare our area from heavy weather through at least
late evening again. Secondly, extremely high PWATs will reduce
efficiency of hail growth and keep DCAPE values within manageable
levels. Thus, we currently are messaging a marginal risk for severe
weather tomorrow afternoon.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Storm chances will increase after sunset tomorrow night coincident
with potential upscale growth of convection across the higher
terrain. A few CAMs (notably, the ARW WRF and NSSL WRF) depict an
organized MCS moving through the central portion of our area
overnight. However, those particular members of the HREF have been
"MCS-happy", so to speak, so that guidance is taken with at least a
bit of a grain of salt.
As the weekend kicks off, the main weather story will pivot back to
heat. The ridge won`t go away - in fact, it is quite the feat to
begin with that we have even had flow/storm chances given the
strength of the ridge. As it builds back in, the risk of excessive
heat will return immediately given the ongoing humid nature of the
airmass. Saturday looks to be the most extreme day, and heat
advisories/excessive heat warnings will likely be needed over a
rather large swath of the area. Heat indices/WBGTR values will
slowly decrease into early next week - not because we`re getting any
cooler, but because humidity values will slowly drop off of the
record-setting pace we`ve seen.
Storm chances will also exist periodically throughout the weekend.
Chances will be modulated by outflow boundaries from previous
convection as well as the duration with which MCSs can survive off
the high terrain; thus, predictability is low at this time. Storm
chances will be lower next week as the core of the upper ridge moves
overhead.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
VFR conditions expected with mainly light southeast winds for a
majority of the forecast period. Low confidence and model
consistency in SHRA/TSRA across western Texas Panhandle making it
terminals in the short term, but cannot rule it out either. Will
confine mention of TSRA to late in the forecast when there is more
agreement among guidance to bring storms in from west Texas toward
and after 00Z tomorrow evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 72 88 72 97 / 70 20 20 0
Hobart OK 70 91 71 101 / 50 30 30 0
Wichita Falls TX 73 94 73 105 / 40 30 30 0
Gage OK 67 88 68 97 / 30 20 30 0
Ponca City OK 69 89 72 98 / 20 20 20 10
Durant OK 71 91 75 96 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...11