Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/17/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
845 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Minimal changes to the going forecast this evening with slight
reduction of rain chances for far south Goshen/Platte Counties
plus far north Laramie County. Light showers are occurring in
Albany County but having a tough time making it down the Laramie
Mountain Range so far with a larger dew point depression near
Cheyenne. Additional light shower activity will be possible
through the evening hours in the far south NE Panhandle as an area
of moisture shifts north from NE CO per latest radar trends.
Overall rainfall rates should be limited with this activity with
low to no flooding risk overnight. Patchy fog possible in the
morning across the southern NE Panhandle towards Cheyenne in
Laramie County north to Goshen in the North Platte Valley. Lower
clouds will also be likely through mid-morning for the WY/NE High
Plains. See details below on the rest of Saturday`s forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Forecast concerns continue to deal with convection through
Saturday.
A more tranquil afternoon with the cold front that was over the
CWA yesterday...now down over central Colorado. A 1024mb surface
high behind the front centered over central Wyoming near Riverton
providing north to northeast winds at the surface and cool
temperatures. Convection has been sparse at best...with only
Laramie County and the I-80 Summit seeing showers at this time.
Decided to end the Flash Flood Watch early as most convection
centered over the Colorado Rockies.
HRRR and RAP13 simulated radar keeps convection mainly along the
I-80 Corridor through about 02Z. Most convection remains south in
Boulder`s CWA. Did keep a mention for showers and storms going
this evening through 06Z. May be a little overkill...but was
reluctant to zero out PoPs altogether. Evening shift may need to
do a mid evening update to remove PoPs this evening.
For Saturday...Upper trough moves through the CWA through the
afternoon. PoPs focused along the I-80 Corridor and Colorado state
line Saturday afternoon and early evening. Good agreement with the
EC/GFS/NAM/SREF on possibly a quarter inch of qpf in this area
through the day. With this good agreement...went high on PoPs
Saturday afternoon.
Other item of note would be possibility of above normal winds out
west behind the upper trough. GFS 700mb winds increase to 30-35kts
over Carbon and Albany Counties. Could be a breezy day out there.
With passage of upper trough Saturday afternoon/evening...look for
increasing heights and warmer temperatures for Sunday. Where we
are seeing 700mb temperatures of 0 to +2C today...by Sunday...we
are looking at 700mb temperatures of +11 to +13C across the CWA.
Corresponding surface temperatures expected to be in the mid 70s
west of the Laramie Range with upper 80s east into the Panhandle.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023
A warm, dry, and windy pattern leads off the week before shifting to
a cooler, wetter, less windy pattern for mid-week. Strong winds are
expected Monday and Tuesday, with some of the wind prone regions
gusting over 40 kts at times. Winds decrease mid-week before
slightly increasing once again to end the week.
On Monday, a stout, upper-level ridge remains stationed over the
central CONUS with deep southwesterly flow. An upper-level trough
sits over the Pacific Northwest, deepening and moving slightly east
throughout the day Monday. In response, the upper-level ridge over
the central CONUS pushes slightly east and amplifies as the trough
deepens, further strengthening the southwesterly flow throughout the
atmosphere. 700 mb temperatures increase to 13-14C across the CWA as
the upper-level ridge strengthens. As a result, Monday will be the
warmest day next week, especially for western Nebraska as that
region is positioned more directly under the ridge. Temperatures
across western Nebraska skyrocket to the upper-80s and low- to mid-
90s in the warmest locations. Southeast Wyoming will see
temperatures in the upper-70s to low-80s west of I-25 and mid-80s to
low-90s east of I-25. With warm temperatures throughout the
atmosphere and strong subsidence from the stout ridge, precipitation
chances will be near 0 for Monday, leading to a dry day with sunny
skies and summer-like temperatures.
On Tuesday, the upper-level trough continues to push the ridge off
to the east, but strong southwesterly flow aloft remains. An
embedded shortwave pushes through the area, providing enough lift to
initiate some showers and thunderstorms across the northeastern
portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon and evening where CAPE is
better. 700 mb temperatures decrease to 11-12C, leading to a
decrease in surface temperatures as well. Temperatures on Tuesday
will be slightly cooler than Monday, with highs in western Nebraska
between the mid-80s and low-90s. Temperatures across southeast
Wyoming hover in the mid-70s to mid-80s. PoPs across southeast
Wyoming are much lower than PoPs over western Nebraska, due to the
better environment further east.
Southwesterly flow aloft continues throughout the remainder of the
week as the upper-level trough remains nearly stationary over the
Pacific Northwest. The jet associated with the upper-level trough
ejects to the northeast, impacting Montana more than Wyoming.
Despite this, heights slowly lower over the CWA as the trough tries
to push easterly Wednesday through Friday. A secondary jet tries to
develop between the primary trough and a subtle tightening of height
gradients across the Four Corner Region. This secondary jet becomes
more developed by Friday and provides some ascent to the CWA as it
moves northerly. Several vorticity maximums traverse across the CWA
Wednesday through Friday, providing enough additional lift to get
daily precipitation chances. Wednesday looks to be the day with the
highest precipitation potential as a subtle shortwave passes over
the CWA. Temperatures continue to cool Wednesday and Thursday before
increasing slightly Friday. Highs across western Nebraska will be in
the mid-80s Wednesday, upper-70s and low-80s Thursday, and upper-70s
and low-80s Friday. Highs across southeast Wyoming will be in the
mid- to upper-70s Wednesday, mid-70s Thursday, and mid-70s to low-
80s Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023
VCTS/VCSH will linger at more southerly terminals this evening, as
well as low CIGs across most terminals. Conditions may drop below
VFR in any storm passing over a terminal. Visibility may be reduced
in heavy rain. Storms dissipate later this evening. Some MVFR CIGs
and BR may be possible at KSNY early this morning. Conditions
improve by mid-morning, with VCTS developing by Saturday
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Minimal fire weather concerns continue with recent widespread
wetting rains and green fuels. Widely scattered showers and storms
this afternoon will end fairly quickly towards sunset. Expect
excellent overnight humidity recoveries tonight as temperatures
cool into the 40s at most locations. Warmer and drier Saturday as
high pressure builds into the area. There will be scattered
afternoon and early evening showers and storms once again...mainly
along the Interstate 80 Corridor from Sidney to Rawlins. A dry
day expected Sunday as westerly winds begin to increase as the
high moves east. Could be quite breezy west of the Laramie Range
Sunday with afternoon humidity falling into the low 20 percent
range.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSA
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...SF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
922 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Expanded a mention of haze to most of the Northland for Saturday
following the near-surface smoke forecast from the HRRR. This is
inline with webcam trends across the region as well. Otherwise,
the forecast for tonight is on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Summary...Quiet weather with somewhat hazy skies from the smoke
from Canada. Chance of precipitation towards the latter half of
the weekend. Big warm up next week.
Quiet weather for today as high pressure at the surface and aloft
dominate the weather pattern. Smoke from the fires in Canada have
caused the sky to become milky white. The HRRR keeps this in the
area through tomorrow and decreasing with time. This is good news
for those that have plans outside this weekend. Due to the milky
sky conditions, have added smoke to the grids.
As the high pressure moves eastward, a shortwave will move into
the upper plains Saturday afternoon. There will be low pressure
at the surface over southwestern MN with a trough northwestward
through MN into extreme eastern ND. As these two features move
eastward precipitation is possible from International Falls
southward to the Brainerd Lakes region initially. The axis of
instability is just outside the CWA. As the area of showers
develops, we could see a few thunderstorms drift into our area
mainly for the Brainerd Lakes region as this is where the best
instability is. However, the further into the evening hours, will
allow for the instability to drop off quickly. This will allow
what thunderstorms that do develop to dissipate and become
showers. Rain amounts will be in the less than a tenth of an inch
to over a half of an inch in the Brainerd Lakes region.
A shortwave from eastern Colorado is progged to move
northeastward towards central MN by Sunday afternoon. In tandem,
the surface low pressure system will also moves eastward. Combined
will help for showers and thunderstorms to developed Sunday
afternoon. An isolated severe may occur as MLCAPE values of around
200 J/kg with the NAM12 being the outlier of near 1500 J/kg. Shear
for the region will be near the 10 to 20 knot range. With a low
shear environment, it might not be possible for storms to become
severe.
As these systems move out, high pressure will once again build
into the region bringing in above normal temperatures for next
week. With no precipitation in sight for at least the first half
of the work week drought conditions will continue across the
Northland. Long range models bring in another chance of
precipitation towards the end of next week. It is too early
mention precipitation amounts as the timing and position may
differ with new model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Hazy conditions from wildfire smoke will continue to produce 5 to
6 sm visibility at KBRD for the 00Z TAF cycle. Confidence is not
great enough to include a haze or smoke mention for the other TAF
sites at this time across northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Southwest winds around 5kts tonight across the western Lake
Superior nearshore waters will turn to the northeast through the
day on Saturday at 5-10kts, with locally stronger winds of
10-15kts for the outer Apostle Islands, and the head of the lake
including Two Harbors, the Twin Ports and Port Wing areas. Some
patchy fog is possible tonight. Rain shower and thunderstorm
chances increase Saturday night and into Sunday at the head of the
lake.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 78 53 73 / 0 10 30 50
INL 53 79 58 78 / 10 30 60 60
BRD 54 82 61 79 / 10 40 60 50
HYR 50 81 56 82 / 0 10 20 40
ASX 46 81 53 80 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PA
DISCUSSION...KSE
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...PA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
632 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Dry through Saturday with ridging surface/aloft across the
forecast area. The RAP vertically integrated smoke model indicates
the smoke layer aloft gradually diminishing through Saturday.
Therefore, clear to partly cloudy skies expected. Lows tonight
will be in the comfortable lower to mid 50s (some upper 40s
possible). Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Saturday night and Sunday...Assessing the latest deterministic runs
and ensembles, undercutting upper trof still on track to try and
battle omega ridge this period and make it eastward acrs the mid and
upper MS RVR Valley by Sunday evening. Better forcing interaction
with some moisture feed looks to occur well to the south of the
local area for more substantial rains acrs MO/AR and into the lower
MS RVR Valley. With ongoing very dry boundary layer(BL) feedback
island in place, see the scenario further to north where showers and
some embedded thunder are ridge blocked and slow eroded as they try
to move from western IA into the local area later Sat night into
Sunday morning. Will keep some POPs in the west after midnight Sat
night for some isolated to sctrd shower/storm activity helped by
nocturnal LLJ support, but could also see the area remaining largely
dry(except the far west) thru 12z Sunday like the ECMWF ensembles
suggest. Some signs by the HiRes models of smoke getting sloshed
back acrs the area from the west Sat night into Sunday morning, but
hopefully remain mainly aloft unless rain processes can mix down
localized pockets.
Sunday as the upper low rolls acrs southeastern MO into SW IL, may
have occasional light to moderate showers and some embedded thunder
in the west and south. High PWATs of 1.5 to 1.6 inches with weak
forcing may still allow for some areas getting over a half inch of
rainfall by Sunday evening in the southern CWA. This while the
northeast third to half of the fcst area closer to the western flank
of the upper ridge may only get a few hundredths or non-measurable
sprinkles. High temps will be variable depending on clouds and
precip, but for now will go with a lot of low to mid 80s.
Monday and Tuesday...Warming with just low chances for a few light
showers or sprinkles Monday north of slow progressing closed upper
low. Upstream re-building thermal ridge will then look to get
shunted acrs the region for a more widespread return to the 90s on
Tue.
Wednesday thru next Friday...Medium range ensemble and longer range
upper jet fcst trends suggest generally dry and hot conditions for
much of the mid to late week period, with northern ridge periphery
storm track setting up from acrs the central/northwest high plains
into the northern GRT LKS. How far north or south this axis sets up
still uncertain at this point, as is the potential for some
convective activity to bleed into the area from the north or
northwest by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
High pressure sitting to our north will slowly slide to the east
through the TAF period. This will continue to bring quiet weather
to eastern Iowa TAF sites through the forecast period. Winds will
become light and variable this evening and switch to the south
after 15 UTC on Saturday. Smoke continues to linger aloft across
the region and have kept it in the TAFs as a cloud layer at 25
kft.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Cousins
of this long term forecast discussion, as the miserably humid
conditions will continue through most of the week. Additionally,
rain chances should come to an end through most of the week as the
ridge stays in place. Afternoon temperatures will generally climb
into the low-mid 90s up into the 100-102 range each afternoon.
When coupled with dewpoints persistently in the 60s and 70s, will
allow heat indices to soar well-above ambient temperatures. Expect
the "feels like" temperature to range in the mid 90s to 105+
degrees. Monday and Tuesday seem to be the hottest days concerning
ambient high temperatures and heat indices. Temps in the low 90s
to near 104, and heat indices in the upper 90s to around 110-115
degrees both days. With this early season heat, it is important to
remind of proper heat safety, especially as individuals and
groups go out to run errands, play sports, or even enjoy the more
natural sites the state has to offer. Stay inside if you can, but
if you must venture out remember these heat safety precautions:
drink plenty of water, even if you are not thirsty, take breaks
within shade or air conditioning, wear light, loose clothing, know
the signs of heat illness, and to always look in your backseat
for children or pets before leaving and locking your car.
One interesting forecast note is that over Monday and Tuesday, a mid-
level shortwave low will break off from the main New England trough,
and meander down towards the deep south on the eastern periphery of
the ridge. While this will not do much to North and Central Texas
through most of the week, there is something of slight interest in
how it will affect the region over late week. Once the disturbance
moves into the western deep south, it will help to shift the ridge
axis more to the west, allowing for slightly lower temperatures and
dewpoints Thursday and Friday. This will ultimately keep max heat
indices at 105 or below both days. However, continue to practice
heat safety through this time. North and Central Texas will be on
the more unfavorable side of the disturbance for rain chances, so
expect any late week precipitation to stay to our east.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Isolated thunderstorms have developed along a weak front/trough in
Central Texas which will directly impact the Waco TAF site over the
next couple of hours. All convective activity is expected to
remain south of the D10 TAf sites the rest of today. A light
northeast wind will prevail before winds veer more southeasterly
beginning tomorrow morning. There is a low chance for MVFR stratus
to affect Metroplex airports tomorrow morning, but this potential
is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Additional and
likely more widespread convection is forecast in parts of North
Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening, and VCTS has been introduced
beginning at 22z.
-Stalley
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 95 74 97 74 / 0 20 30 5 5
Waco 74 98 75 101 75 / 20 20 20 5 10
Paris 68 89 69 89 69 / 0 10 60 20 5
Denton 69 95 71 96 70 / 0 20 30 5 5
McKinney 69 90 72 93 71 / 0 10 40 5 5
Dallas 73 96 74 98 74 / 0 10 30 5 5
Terrell 72 91 73 96 72 / 5 10 40 5 5
Corsicana 76 96 77 98 76 / 20 10 20 5 10
Temple 76 100 77 103 76 / 20 10 20 5 10
Mineral Wells 71 96 72 98 72 / 5 20 30 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ104>107-118>123-
131>134-142>145.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ135-
146>148-156>162-174-175.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ135-
146>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
941 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
As the first round of showers and thunderstorms weakens and pushes
east out of the area this evening, an MCS has developed over
eastern Colorado this evening and is expected to push eastward
into our forecast area around or just after midnight tonight.
While widespread severe weather still is not expected, strong to severe
wind gusts may be possible along the leading edge, and this
continues to be supported by the latest CAMs, especially the HRRR.
Any severe weather would likely be in the midnight to 3 AM
timeframe and mainly in our southwestern counties. The other
concern overnight and into Saturday morning may end up being
hydro, with heavy rainfall certainly possible with this
system...especially on top of the few areas that have already
received 2-3 inches of rain earlier this evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Key Messages:
* Off and on thunderstorms expected from this afternoon into
Saturday morning. A few strong to marginally severe storms and
locally heavy rain are the main concerns.
* Thunderstorm chances continue into Saturday afternoon and
evening, though appear to be on a downward trend, overall, for
areas especially around the Tri-Cities, north and west.
* Dry out for Father`s Day and heat-up early next week.
* Warm temperatures continue through mid to late next week as off
and on thunderstorms return to the forecast.
Forecast Details:
Scattered tstms have popped up as expected this aftn within zone
of weak low level convergence and environment of very weak deep
layer shear and weak to moderate instability. Activity through the
evening will be very "pulsey" in nature (due to the weak wind
shear) which should limit the hail threat to quarter size, at
best. Can`t rule out some gusty winds from collapsing storms
either, but modest DCAPE values and Microburst Composite of only 1
suggests this risk will also be isolated and brief for any given
storm. Perhaps the greatest risk through this eve will be very
localized pockets of heavy rainfall. Had a storm over Harlan Co
this morning that was pretty weak, but still produced a quick 1-2"
of rain per local mesonet station near Alma, NE. Storms this aftn
have already shown signs of 1-2"/hr rain rates. Fortunately, this
areal coverage has been very limited.
Expect at least a couple/few hr lull this eve after sunset before
models suggest another, more organized, round of storms moves in
from the W/SW around, or after midnight. Shear will be stronger
overnight, but instability will be on the decline. Some recent
HRRR runs have trended a bit stronger with this activity and at
least a non-zero risk for damaging wind gusts along the leading
edge, particularly for 5-6 of our SW counties. Timing looks to be
midnight-3AM for greatest risk, if it pans out at all. Storms
haven`t really gotten their act together just yet in E CO. Can`t
rule out iso hydro issues into the overnight as PWATs remain
elevated in the 1.2-1.5" range, but at least it looks like this
round will be moving along at a better (albeit still slow) rate
around 15-25kt. Obviously, areas that receive locally heavy rain
this aftn/eve would be most at risk tonight. Think ongoing drought
conditions, incr crop maturity, and at least a few hr break
between rounds should keep coverage/severity limited.
Short-term/hi-res models have come into better agreement that
tonight`s MCS will generate a substantial MCV that continues E/NE
across the CWA Sat AM. Expect gradual weakening through the
morning, so less rainfall over E/NE zones, arguably where it`s
needed the most. Same models also suggest that subsidence and
drier NW low level flow could keep potential for redevelopment on
the low side for majority of the CWA through the aftn and eve hrs.
Exception could be over areas near and esp. S of the NE/KS state
line near a stalled out boundary/weak low level convergence zone.
Appears another MCS will track W to E across KS Sat eve into
overnight, but latest indications are that this should remain
mainly along/S of I-70. So bottom line for those with outdoor
activities on Sat...will probably be a bit rainy/gloomy during
the AM hrs, with gradual clearing and mainly dry or only low-end
chcs for add shwrs/storms during aftn/eve hrs for most of the CWA.
Sat looks to have the most pleasant temperatures of this forecast
period with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Upper ridging will build across the Plains early next week as a
cut-off low develops over the Deep South and the next upper trough
deepens over the Pac NW. Orientation of these features should keep
us from reaching triple-digits, but plentiful sunshine and rising
heights should support widespread 90s. Western trough is forecast
to edge eastward towards mid-week and spit out several lead
shortwaves into the central and northern Plains. Latest EC and GFS
deterministic and ensemble solutions are pretty hesitant to fully
eject the main trough this far E mid to late week, so our chcs
will be really dependent on timing of shortwaves and associated
mesoscale features.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Significant weather: Thunderstorms with MVFR CIGS/VSBYs (brief period of IFR
CIGS possible) tonight through early Saturday morning.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area
this evening and overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will
generally be N to NW through the TAF period, but variable with
gusts to around 25 kts around any thunderstorm activity. Mainly
VFR CIGS this evening will lower to MVFR (to perhaps briefly IFR)
Saturday morning as showers and thunderstorms move though.
Saturday afternoon, CIGS are expected to return to VFR conditions.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hickford
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Hickford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
High pressure situated over the Western Great Lakes will bring
fair weather both tonight and on Saturday. Skies will be mainly
clear. Lows tonight will dip into the 40s to around 50, which is
10+ degrees below normals for tonight which are in the upper 50s
to around 60. It will feel cool tonight by mid to late June
standards.
We are not expecting widespread fog formation tonight but given
temperatures crashing to the dew point not out of the question to
see some radiational fog formation. MOS guidance from multiple
models show a bit of fog.
Widespread smoke aloft was seen in satellite imagery around
sunset. We even had some surface visibility reduction due to near
surface smoke this afternoon and evening. 6SM and haze is being
reported at MKG and 5SM and mist is occurring at JXN. The HRRR
shows plenty of vertically integrated smoke hanging around tonight
and into Saturday so it will be another hazy day tomorrow. As for
near surface smoke, the HRRR shows improving conditions through
the night as the thicker smoke pushes southward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Weather concerns are limited through the short term. Latest
satellite imagery shows diminishing cumulus occurring across the cwa
early this afternoon. High pressure at the surface and aloft will
result in clear skies tonight and Saturday. Once the wind decouples
this evening, excellent radiational cooling will help temperatures
fall to around 40 across the far northern cwa to near 50 in the
south.
Highs Saturday will climb to around 80 as temperatures continue
their slow moderation under the ridge. Lows Saturday night will be a
few degrees warmer than tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
We continue to have a high confidence that a very warm and dry
pattern will persist over the area through the next week. Another
blocking pattern is taking shape, and we will once again be on the
warm and dry portion of the block. It looks like the earliest
chance of rain portions of the area might have would be next
Friday, and will likely be beyond that.
Models and ensembles are in good agreement that upper ridging will
dominate over the area during the next week. They are all taking
the energy trying to come in from the west this weekend to our
south as an upper low closes off and rotates to our south.
Even as the upper ridge currently building in across the region
gets squeezed a bit to our east by the low, we stay under the
influence of it, and then a large amplitude ridge becomes re-
established over the area with a large upper low digging across
the western states. This ridge is then expected to hold the
remainder of the week.
The small chance of rain that becomes possible about Friday, is
only again some isolated showers/storms as the low level moisture
increases across the area. It is more likely that any rain will
hold off until beyond this forecast period.
As far as temperatures go, we are expecting highs well into the
80s and making a run at 90 by mid week. 850 mb temps start out on
Sunday around 14C, and will warm to about 17-18C by mid-late week.
Night time lows and humidity levels will start out comfortable in
the beginning of the week with dew points in the 50s. It will
become more humid by mid-late week, with lows then only dropping
down into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
VFR weather is expected throughout the TAF period outside of some
light haze this evening due to wildfire smoke. The haze may
restrict visibility to 5-6SM this evening.
Skies will be mainly clear the next 24 hours. The only clouds may
be some FEW to SCT cumulus clouds on Saturday with bases around
5,000 feet.
Winds will be under 10 knots through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in fairly
light winds and waves aob 3 feet through early next week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Duke
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1039 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level low pressure systems meander over New
England through this weekend, bringing continued cloudy and
showery conditions at times. A weak area of low pressure at the
surface drifts through the Gulf of Maine tonight through Sunday,
bringing a widespread rainfall to the region. Although rain
chances decrease early next week, there remains a chance for
showers and a couple of storms through at least Tuesday. A
return to drier conditions is then possible toward the middle of
next week. Ridging builds across the Northeast late next week,
with an increasing potential for a return to summertime warmth.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM Update...
Have adjusted pops once again based on latest radar trends and
HRRR. Have upped popos for most of New Hampshire and along the
border with westernmost Maine. Patchy fog will continue to
develop overnight. Minor adjustments made to the remainder of
the near term portion of the forecast.
Prev Update...
Latest radar imagery indicated showers and storms will continue
to exit through northern areas this evening while another batch
of precipitation crosses southern New Hampshire in an area that
remains unstable and has not been worked over by previous
convection today. Have upped pops in this region which is
supported by the latest HRRR solution. Otherwise, have just made
minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points and winds for the
near term portion of the forecast.
Prev disc...
Some areas of slow moving and training cells this afternoon
have produced significant rainfall and some small hail. This is
still probably a concern through sunset, but the threat of TSRA
and showers will continue overnight and increase. As upper level
trough closes off overnight and sfc low responds we will see
synoptic scale forcing begin and showers will transition to more
of a steady rain in the pre-dawn hours. Lows will drop into the
50s across most of the CWA, but maybe only low 60s in the ASH-
MHT area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the sfc low tracks NE from Cape Cod tomorrow it will likely
generate steadier rain with embedded heavy downpours through
much of the CWA. See Hydro section for flooding threat. Based
on what happened this afternoon may need flood watch in some
parts of the mountains, although the rainfall rates we saw today
are unlikely. NE flow will keep temps cool, with highs mostly
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Saturday night will see continue rain into the evening and the
low begins to shift shift back NE briefly as it warps back into
upper level low. , and then begins to very slowly drift east
toward Sunday morning. Mins drop into the 50s again across the
CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Today`s 12Z guidance is in good agreement with the widespread
precipitation gradually winding down through the course of Sunday
morning as the low pressure approaches Nova Scotia. However, mostly
cloudy skies will likely continue through the day along with the
possibility of additional showers and maybe a storm across New
Hampshire. Most will see highs reach the 60s, possibly low 70s
across southern NH.
Other than isolated upslope showers Sunday night, I think areas to
the south will stay as the low pressure continues to exit into the
Canadian Maritimes, but I also expect some fog development given the
light winds and forecast widespread rain this coming weekend.
As we go into early next week, the main upper low will be over the
Canadian Maritimes while an expansive ridge sets up through the
central CONUS and well through the Great Lakes. We`ll be in between
these features which will allow a couple of additional shortwaves
rotating around the main upper low to bring more scattered showers,
possibly a couple of storms, mostly during the daytime hours on
Monday and Tuesday. Warmer temperatures aloft and better mixing will
offer warmer temps at the surface with highs generally in the upper
60s to lower 70s for most of the area.
The previously mentioned ridge will attempt to build our way from
the middle to late part of next week, will will bring warmer
temperatures and mostly dry weather. However, we`ll have to watch
for a couple of disturbances riding the periphery for the ridge in
this timeframe. Highs well into the 80s look possible toward the end
of next week, bringing a return to feeling like summer.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...All terminals will drop to IFR or lower by
midnight, in mainly low cigs. Scattered TSRA possible this
evening with steadier rain after midnight. Looks like IFR will
persist through Sat and Sat night, with only KHIE possibly
seeing some MVFR cigs on Saturday as the E flow downslopes.
Long Term...Showers and a few storms are expected on Sunday, but
visibilities and ceilings are expected to improve to MVFR later in
the day as low pressure starts to pull away from the area. However,
I think there will be fog and low ceilings again Sunday night into
early Monday given the light wind forecast and recent rains. Going
into early next week, mainly VFR expected outside of showers (maybe
a few storms) for Monday and Tuesday. Drier weather and more
widespread VFR will be possible from Wednesday through the end of
next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA may be needed, mainly for NE winds late
Saturday into Sat night.
Long Term...North wind gusts to around 25 kt and seas up to 5 ft
will be possible through Sunday as low pressure approaches Nova
Scotia. Conditions look to improve late in the day Sunday as the low
pulls farther away into the Canadian Maritimes. Weak high pressure
is expected to keep conditions across the waters below SCA levels
through most of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Localized flooding possible over the weekend as signals favor
scattered high flows in area small streams, particularly in the
mountain regions. Diurnally enhanced convection this evening
will bring precursor rainfall to the region ahead of a secondary
low pressure system expected Saturday. The signals associated
with this complex surface low this weekend are for slow moving
cells with the potential for training. Following a relatively
wet week, area soil moistures have replenished, suggesting
limited storage capacity primed for runoff. Any flooding
impacts will likely be isolated and highly dependent on the
pivot point of the surface wave. Forecast trends favor the
mountain regions in the south facing slopes, where rainfall
amounts around 1 inch is likely, with pockets of higher amounts
near 3 inches.
The primary risk areas will rapid rises along tributaries near the
mountains which could be hazardous for recreational paddlers,
hikers, and even campers near the banks. Streamflows along mainstem
rivers have shown little response to recent runoff, so even with
additional widespread rainfall this weekend are likely to remain
within their banks. Low lying and poor drainage areas could see some
localized impacts including nuisance flooding in urban areas.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Combs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
856 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast until a cold front drops through the area
tonight. Much drier conditions will follow for the weekend with
daily temperatures at or just above normal. Meandering low
pressure, surface and aloft, will affect the area with unsettled
weather for much of the upcoming week. Temperatures during next
week will likely run below normal.
&&
.UPDATE...
Given the lack of any convective activity upstream, it appears
increasingly likely that fropa later this evening will be dry,
despite the HRRR continuing to develop widely scattered showers.
Have lowered the already low PoPs to <15%. Otherwise no
significant changes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stratus fields this morning transitioned to cu as deeper mixing
occurred. Westerly component to the flow kept sea breeze pinned
closer to the coast, except it made some headway into Brunswick
county. This led to some interaction associated with fire in
Brunswick county producing a couple of showers mixed with ash.
Some storms along trough inland remaining mainly just west of
forecast area but may affect I-95 corridor and mainly northern
tier of Robeson and possibly into Pender with an isolated storm
this aftn, but this will be followed with convection just ahead
of cold front into this evening and later this evening closer to
the coast. Storms should remain mainly isolated with best
forcing over NC and farther north associated shortwave riding
through mid to upper level trough.
Once cold front moves through tonight winds will shift from S-SW
to NW with any moisture left in the column drying out with
skies clearing for the most part. May see some aftn cu, and some
passing cirrus, but overall expect a convection-free day. With
change in wind direction to NW, smoke plume from Green Swamp -
Pulp Rd fire should affect southern portions of Brunswick and NH
counties. A code RED AQA for fine particulates from DEQ will
continue for Brunswick county into Saturday and most likely
longer while a Code ORANGE will continue for New Hanover into
Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Relatively cool night in store for Saturday night with lows in the
low to mid 60s as cold front stalls to the south. Temps warm up into
the low 90s on Sunday with return flow bringing back dewpoints in
the 60s. May see isolated convection Sunday afternoon, mainly along
sea breeze in NE SC. Humidity increases heading into Sunday night,
keeping low temps in the upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lots of uncertainty for the long term period as a cutoff low
develops somewhere over the southeast US Tuesday and lingers through
Friday, with timing and location of the low impacting our rain
chances and potential amounts. In turn, several waves of low
pressure look to form along the stalled front to the south, and one
of these waves may impact our area late in the week. Rain chances
increase from the west Monday as the upper low begins to develop
from a digging trough. Rain chances are currently in the 40-60%
range Tuesday through end of the week. It will likely be brief
periods of rain within the long term period, just unclear of when
are where at this time. Ensembles don`t give much confidence in any
significant rainfall, with average totals of only about 1" of rain
through Friday. Near to above normal temps start of the week look to
drop to below normal mid to late week as what looks to be a pseudo
CAD wedge develops inland.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WSW flow will continue ahead of FROPA, which is expected between 04-06Z.
Chance for a shower or tstm along the front is low, but best chance will
be over SE NC, possibly impacting KILM. Have included VCTS for now.
SW winds will veer to the W and then NW behind the front overnight into
early Sat. Clearing into Sat morning with backing of winds through Sat
aftn.
Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR through the weekend. Next potential threat
flight categories arrives by Monday, as more unsettled weather arrives.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Saturday...SW flow will veer to NW to N tonight as front
moves through after midnight. High pressure behind front will
weaken with NW-N winds backing to the west through Sat aftn.
Should see sea breeze spike up winds near shore in the aftn to
early evening on Sat. Seas 3 to 4 ft will drop down through
Saturday to below 3 ft.
Saturday night through Tuesday...Southerly winds Saturday night
turn easterly for Sunday through most of Wednesday with high
pressure to the north and a stalled front to the south. Winds
strengthen a bit and turn northeasterly Wednesday as a wedge
develops inland and low pressure develops to the south. Seas slowly
increase into next week, with 2 ft expected Sunday to 3-4 ft
Tuesday, with building SE swell. ENE wind wave component joins the
wave spectrum Tuesday through Wednesday with seas 4-6 ft possible
Wednesday.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
922 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
The stubborn stratocu that hung across much of the forecast area
today has steadily diminished this evening with lingering pockets
across eastern counties as of 01Z. Elsewhere skies had cleared with a
smoky haze aloft. Temperatures were generally in the 60s.
The forecast is in excellent shape for the overnight as high
pressure serves as the dominant influence. With mainly clear skies
and winds becoming light and variable...potential is there for some
patchy fog to develop during the predawn hours through daybreak.
Expect another pleasant night for temperatures as lows fall into the
50s...7-10 degrees below average for mid June.
Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Surface high pressure centered over Lake Superior early this
afternoon will build south across Lake Michigan tonight and
Saturday. Meanwhile, the upper trough, currently over western parts
of Pennsylvania and New York, will move into New England as an upper
ridge approaches central Indiana from the west. This will result in
subsidence and fair weather through Saturday. Thin ribbon of
moisture in place along with the cyclonic flow in the wake of the
trough and daytime heating has lead to extensive stratocu field near
and north of Interstate 74. As the trough moves further away
tonight, diurnal heating ends and winds drop off, expect at least
partial clearing tonight. GFS LAMP suggests some light fog is
possible over shelter locations, low lying areas and near water
sources. Will not include fog at this point, with confidence low,
but will need to take another look for the evening update.
Saturday will see plenty of sunshine around with only a very thin
layer of moisture 4-5K feet and subsidence related to high
pressure. Temperatures will also warm back up to seasonable with
the increased sunshine with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. With winds light and shifting the northwest, dew points
will remain in the 50s, so humidity levels will be comfortable for
outdoor recreation. Vertically integrated and near surface HRRR
smoke progs suggest the worst of the smoke from the Canadian fires
will be southwest and west of central Indiana.
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
A rather complicated upper-level pattern will be present for the
majority of the long range. Models show an upper wave moving into
the Ohio Valley before stalling, forming into an expanding low, and
then slowly track southward through the period while elongated
ridging stretches from Texas into the Great Lakes region.
The upper wave may bring showers and storms to the area sometime
Sunday or Sunday night, but models continue to trend the system
weaker and further south so confidence is lowering. The southwestern
counties stand the greatest chance of seeing any precipitation. The
low then looks to sit and spin for a while just to the south of the
forecast area, which could expand rain chances into Monday as well.
Ridging should expand up into the upper Great Lakes by mid week and
then stick around for the rest of the week. This will allow for
better chances of dry weather for the latter half of next week as
well as keep the stagnant low to the south.
How the pattern ends up evolving will highly impact temperatures
through the long term period especially if we end up seeing rain at
all. For now, going with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the
60s. Some areas could get to near 90 degrees on several days but
again, it is highly dependent on numerous factors.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Impacts:
* Potential for brief MVFR and worse fog at the outlying terminals
predawn hours through daybreak
* VFR conditions otherwise
Discussion:
Stubborn stratocu deck is gradually diminishing early this
evening and should largely clear the area over the next few hours.
The rest of the overnight will see mainly clear skies and light
northerly flow as high pressure settles over the region. Patchy
fog is possible at the outlying terminals towards daybreak with
model soundings indicating lingering shallow moisture and light
flow.
Quiet weather is expected for Saturday with the high overhead.
Expect light and variable flow and the potential for at least some
diurnal cu formation for the afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Update...Ryan
Short Term...MK
Long Term...KH
Aviation...Ryan
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
955 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
...Evening and overnight forecast update...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Key Messages:
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight
across much of western and north central Nebraska. The potential for
an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two exists with
damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall being the primary
threats.
- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will
gradually track northeastward, tapering off through Saturday
afternoon.
- Dry conditions and warming temperatures for Father`s Day into
early next week ahead of another period of unsettled weather for the
middle to end of next week.
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed broad ridging aloft
centered across Mexico. Further northeast of this feature, a trough
was noted across the northern Rockies, extending southwest into the
Desert Southwest. Further east of this feature, an upper-level low
pressure system was evident across Pennsylvania/New York with a
trough extending southwest across the the Tennessee Valley. An
embedded shortwave perturbation was noted across the Four Corners
region. At the surface, low pressure was situated across eastern
South Dakota and another across northeastern Nebraska. A slow
moving cold front is draped southwest from these surface features
from Norfolk to Grand Island to Holdrege to Oberlin, Kansas. This
cold front has brought a range of temperatures across western and
north central Nebraska this afternoon. As of 2PM CT, temperatures
ranged from 56 degrees at Gordon to 80 degrees at O`Neill. Widely
scattered showers developed across portions of the Sandhills into
north central Nebraska and have continued to linger across the
area. Very little rainfall has come from these showers with only a
trace of rainfall observed at LBF at 18z from a brief rain shower
that tracked across the area earlier this afternoon. Further
west, scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop
across the Palmer Divide, gradually tracking northeast. This
activity will be the focus for future development across portions
of the area later tonight.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
The RAP and HRRR models have been showing the Colo/KS MCS carving
mostly south of Interstate 80 for several model runs. A forecast
update using these models is in place which features the best rain
chances south of the Interstate and across Custer county.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
This evening/tonight...The main focus this evening and tonight will
surround shower and thunderstorm chances across western and north
central Nebraska. There are two areas of storms expected to evolve
across the area.
The first one being isolated to scattered development along the
aforementioned cold front that has begun to stall across
the area. Surface temperatures in the 80s along and ahead of the
front will support sufficient instability (MLCAPE ~1,500 J/Kg)
across portions of southwest and north central Nebraska. Though
shear profiles are marginal at < 30kts with modest mid-level lapse
rates of ~6.5C/km, the environment still supports storm
organization and an isolated strong to briefly severe
thunderstorms across portions of the area. This environment is
supportive of strong wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
Any strong to briefly severe storms will be rather short lived
before diurnal heating concludes and the frontal boundary pushes
further south and east, limiting overall lift/forcing and
instability. The window of timing of the greatest severe threat
appears to be from ~4 to 10 PM CT.
The second, more robust area of storms surrounds the ongoing
development across the Palmer Divide, eventually tracking into
Kansas in the late evening/night. The CAM solutions are in general
agreement that this activity becoming an MCS, with the northern
edge pushing into southwest Nebraska, tracking northeast into
north central Nebraska late tonight. The axis of instability
shifts southward and greatly diminishes across our area, however,
pockets of MLCAPE approaching 350 J/kg will be sufficient enough
to support some embedded thunderstorms across portions of
southwestern and north central Nebraska. The primary hazard within
this round of storms will be locally heavy rainfall which is
highlighted by the NAEFS and ENS ensemble suggesting that the mean
PWAT may meet or exceed the 90th climatological percentile across
portions of the area. The severe threat remains limited with this
round of activity given lack of lift/forcing and instability.
Saturday/Saturday night...As the front continues it`s gradual
southeastward journey, the associated showers and thunderstorms will
continue into Saturday morning and afternoon. Guidance is
suggesting this activity will continue to track northeastward
across the area, gradually tapering off during the afternoon on
Saturday with most areas remaining dry in the evening. The
greatest rainfall amounts are expected to be seen across southwest
into portions north central Nebraska with amounts approaching an
inch or more for today through Saturday night. Most locations
within the forecast area should receive some decent rainfall,
however, the Sandhills and northwest Nebraska are expected to miss
the almost all of the activity through the next two days (hope is
not lost for these areas to see rain as we move further into the
extended period).
The upper-level trough is expected to lift northeastward out of
the Rockies into Montana and the Dakotas, with an embedded
shortwave aloft ejecting out of the central Rockies by early
morning on Saturday. Strong mid-level frontogenetical forcing and
increased lift is expected across areas south of the Palmer
Divide, leading to afternoon shower and thunderstorm development
across eastern Colorado, translating eastward across Kansas into
the evening hours. Guidance suggests that the bulk of the forcing
and lift will remain south of the forecast area resulting in the
majority of the activity to remain south of the area. However,
some guidance suggests a finger of increased lift and
frontogenetical forcing may extend into far southwest Nebraska in
the evening which may result in a short-lived isolated
shower/thunderstorm across southwestern Nebraska. Though MLCAPE
values nearing 2,000 J/kg exist across southwestern Nebraska,
meager lapse rates and shear combined with the limited forcing and
lift, the severe threat appears low with any storms that do
develop across the area Saturday evening. Confidence in any
redevelopment across southwest Nebraska in the evening remains
modest given the variability amongst model solutions. Will
continue to monitor this potential with subsequent forecasts.
Outside of these shower and thunderstorm chances, it will be a
pleasant day in regards to temperatures with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
The upper-level ridge will continue across Mexico on Sunday with a
closed low pressure system deepening over the Pacific Northwest.
This will result in the start of dry and warm conditions returning
on Sunday and continuing into early next week. As the upper-level
ridge builds into the Great Lakes region on Monday and the Pacific
Northwest trough shifts eastward, southwesterly flow aloft increases
across the area. Strong warm air advection (WAA) in the low to mid-
levels will cause temperatures to climb into the well above normal
range for the middle of June. In fact, both the NAEFS and ENS
ensemble guidance suggests that the mean temperature at H85-5 will
meet or exceed the 90th percentile across portions of the northern
Plains. Daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in
the upper 80s to low 90s. This will be our second time seeing 90
degree weather across western and north central Nebraska this year
with the first occurrence in mid April.
Abundant moisture advection from the Gulf combined with multiple
disturbances embedded within the flow aloft and surface boundaries
tracking across the area will result in sufficient lifting and
forcing for shower and thunderstorm chances across much of the area
Wednesday into next weekend. Confidence in the severe weather threat
and coverage remains low at this time given variability amongst
deterministic and ensemble solutions. Though the details remain
murky right now, the potential for an active and wet period is
increasing for the mid to latter parts of next week. Stay tuned as
the details get ironed out in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across southwest
Nebraska and into portions of central Nebraska by late evening.
Small hail and brief gusty winds as well as torrential rainfall will
be the main threats. Otherwise, overcast skies will prevail through
Saturday with ceilings gradually increasing throughout the day.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
753 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2023
Quiet weather continues over the Great Lakes this afternoon as a
ridge continues to build in. Some fair weather cumulus has developed
across the south-central UP, and though difficult to see on
satellite, a thin haze remains present area-wide courtesy of
upstream Canadian wildfires. Temperatures seem unbothered by this
haze aloft, as most of the area is climbing comfortably into the
lower to mid 70s.
Capping may also be responsible for the failure of dewpoints to mix
out quite as dramatically as expected in the far eastern UP, but RH
is still dropping into the lower 30s and even upper 20s in some
pockets. With winds gusting to around 10 to 15mph, or higher at
times, we are flirting with elevated fire weather criteria. Gusts
should quickly fall back into the evening, however, with light and
variable winds overnight. Expect mainly clear skies, with some
patchy fog not out of the question in the interior-western UP while
temperatures fall to lows generally in the lower to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2023
Above normal temperatures prevail throughout the extended period
with much above normal temperatures expected for the middle to end
of next week. Very little -if any- rainfall is expected over the
next 7 days, but there is a slight chance of light rain in the
Sunday night-Tuesday morning time frame. The lack of precipitation
leads to growing fire wx concerns as persistently dry ridging
returns. There appears to be a chance of a wetter and more active
pattern during the June 24-26 time frame, but we`ll have to wait
and see.
Starting with Saturday morning, a ~1016 mb surface ridge gradually
weakens while shifting southeast across the Lower Great Lakes behind
a deepening cyclone across the Gulf of Maine. At the same time, a
shortwave emerges on the North-Central Plains on Saturday then lifts
north across MN on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, the latest 15z RAP
guidance shows a smoke-laden upper level ridge moving over the UP
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Light winds on Saturday
favors lake breeze development off both lakes during the afternoon.
At this time, the smoke appears to be primarily aloft so impacts
should be limited to a colorful sunset on Saturday and sunrise on
Sunday. Anyways, as the shortwave lifts into Ontario Sunday night, a
weak 20-25kt LLJ moves across the far western UP coincident with a
narrow axis of deeper moisture. Considering dry ridging in place and
limited synoptic ascent, think rain chances are probably too low to
justify mentioning at this time. If any showers were to develop then
the most likely placement is between Ironwood and L`Anse.
Upper level ridging amplifies early next week as longwave troughing
sets up across the west coast. At the surface, 1020+ mb ridging
builds across the St. Lawrence River Valley early next week placing
Upper Michigan within the WAA regime west of the ridge. This
southerly/southeasterly low level flow should result in warmest
temps occuring near Lake Superior with onshore flow off Lake MI
moderating temperatures there. At this time it seems like each day
could be warmer than the last through at least Wednesday when 850mb
temps warm into the upper teens. This should result in temps
approaching 90F along portions of the Lake Superior shoreline Tues-
Thur and perhaps Fri/Sat too. This prolonged stretch of hot/dry
weather should resurrect our fire weather concerns with light winds
being the primary limiting factor.
Ensemble guidance suggests a cool front will drop into the Upper
Great Lakes late next week. The operational 12z ECMWF continues to
show this front pushing south across our next Saturday, but CMC/GFS
guidance keeps the front farther northwest with our area staying
mostly dry. Ensemble mean PWATs from all model centers show a plume
of Gulf moisture being established ahead of this front by midweek.
This seems to favor more widespread convection/outflow that should
help push the front into our area with at least a chance for
thunderstorms next weekend. Quickly glancing at CAPE/shear
parameters suggests there is potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms if the ECMWF solution ends up playing out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 753 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VFR conditions dominate the TAF period. Lake breeze winds are
expected at the TAF sites during the Saturday daylight hours.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2023
Thru at least the middle of next week, typical early summer
conditions will prevail across Lake Superior due to a generally weak
pres gradient associated with high pres ridging near or across Lake
Superior. Warming air mass overtop the chilly marine layer will also
work to limit winds in typical early summer fashion. Expect winds
mostly blo 20kt thru the period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...EK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1042 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Most note-worthy change to the immediate forecast was mentioning
slight chance of showers across the southern east TN mountains and
portions of the Southern Plateau. Very light reflectivity present
on radar just west of our area and our NC counties. The latest
HRRR model was the basis of the update made. By 05Z, any showers
should dissipate. Other than that, normal updates made such as,
blending recent obs and some wx elements to recent model runs.
KS
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Closed 500 mb low system near New York has a weak disturbance in
tandem with a frontal boundary that will touch off isolated
convection this afternoon, which will move quickly east and
end/depart right around 00Z. Breezy west winds will settle down
and become more northerly overnight. Wind-sheltered areas in
valleys and near waterways may see patchy fog by morning.
Otherwise, a dry day is expected Saturday as 500 MB ridging to the
west nudges into the region. Temperatures will be relatively
normal Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Key Messages:
1. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Monday onward, especially early in the week.
2. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal.
For Saturday Night through Tuesday...
At the start of the period, an upper-level ridge will be over the
region with a stationary frontal boundary just to our south. This
will allow for a dry start to the period as better moisture will be
south of the region. During the day on Sunday, the frontal boundary
will drift northward but will keep diurnal rain chances focused in
southern portions of the area. Instability will be limited (500 J/kg
or less) but sufficient for mention of thunder, especially in
southern areas.
Heading into Monday, a closed low is expected to form near the Great
Lakes region and progress to our area from the northwest. There
still remains uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve, but this
feature will bring widespread showers and storms to the region. The
NAM, for example, shows this feature to become more negatively
tilted, which would raise concern for strong to severe storms.
However, the GFS and many ensemble members disagree with this
solution. Most model solutions suggest a fairly moist environment
with PWAT values above 1.5", which definitely suggests potential for
efficient rainfall rates. The closed low will likely keep elevated
rain chances into Tuesday. With the potential for repeated and
efficient rainfall, similar HWO wording will be kept.
For Wednesday through Friday...
The track of the closed low beyond Tuesday is even more unclear, but
most solutions suggest it to be near or south of the area, if it
doesn`t dissipate. This will keep continued diurnal rain chances in
the forecast each day. Climatological values for the climate sites
are generally close to 40 or 50 percent with higher chances in the
mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
VFR expected for this TAF period. Westerly winds this evening
over 10kts will subside overnight and turn northerly/NNE. Not
expecting any gusts near 20kts tomorrow like we saw today at the
terminals. Current mid-level FEW-SCT will lift to high-level
later tonight, persisting into tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 89 64 90 / 10 10 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 59 90 / 10 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 58 86 60 89 / 10 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 54 86 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1102 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes south of Long Island overnight. The low
will then slowly move into the Gulf of Maine Saturday into
Saturday night. Low pressure heads east Sunday into early next
week, with a weak low pressure trough lingering into Monday and
Tuesday. High pressure will otherwise dominate into much of the
week. A weak low to the south may affect the area on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Forecast has been updated mainly for PoPs, temperatures and
dewpoints based on the latest obs and trends. Low pressure will
be shifting NE, but likely remaining south of Long Island
overnight. A trough extends north from the center of the low,
and with some moisture convergence along it as well as some lift
from above, expecting showers to develop and shift northward
through eastern LI/SE CT overnight. Forecast PoPs might be a
little too high here as shower activity might be only
scattered/widely scattered. While a rumble of thunder is not
impossible as some elevated instability exists, the chance is
too low to include in the forecast. Patchy fog is anticipated
with saturated low levels and light to calm winds. Lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The center of the closed off upper level low moves into the
region Saturday while at the surface, low pressure slowly moves
into the Gulf of Maine. The surface low could also slightly
deepen as shown by some forecast models.
Positive vorticity advection increases across the region Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening. The center of the upper level low
and max positive vorticity move east of the region Saturday night.
Chances for showers will be highest across more eastern sections,
generally across Southern CT and Long Island especially during the
afternoon Saturday. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms
early in the day with the greater chance of thunderstorms in the mid
afternoon into early evening with the cold pool aloft.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease Saturday
especially by mid to late evening. All showers taper off overnight.
For high temperatures Saturday, went cooler with 3/4 consensus of
raw model data and 1/4 consensus of MOS data. Used a consensus of
MOS data for lows Saturday night. Temperatures will average below
normal for this time of year.
With HRRR low level smoke increasing across western sections,
think there will likely be some resulting haze as the smoke gets
dispersed and less concentrated from the Canadian wildfires.
This will be from the NW flow and across western sections of the
area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A gradual pattern change appears in the offing as a closed low over
New England and the Canadian Maritimes pulls to the east and heights
rise aloft, especially later in the week. Lingering troughiness in
the wake of the departure of the closed low may still lead to
chances for showers and possibly a tstm Mon into Tue, otherwise sfc
high pressure should be in control, with temps near to slightly
below normal.
A warmup to above normal temps should take place Thu-Fri as an upper
high finally builds into the Northeast later this week, with highs
in the 80s in most places. With some guidance showing a weak cutoff
low to the south gradually drifting N toward the area, Friday also
has chance PoP.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure passes just south of us tonight, reaching south of
Cape Cod Saturday morning.
Mostly MVFR this evening. Showers anticipated overnight KGON,
but not completely out of question elsewhere.
Difficult to time wind direction shifts tonight as the center
of low pressure passes nearby. Mostly E-NE this evening, then
backing NE-N, then N-NW by Saturday morning. Speeds should at
least remain below 10 kt. NW winds for Saturday, which will
increase to around 15 kt in the afternoon with gusts 20-25 kt
and should be strong enough to prevent sea breezes.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of onset/end of MVFR could be off by a couple of hours.
Chance that VFR prevails most of the night. Timing of wind
shifts may be off by a few hours, however winds should remain
below 10kt through tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sat night: Mostly VFR. CHC for MVFR in -shra east of the city.
Sun: VFR. A slight chc for pm -shra/tstm east of the city.
Mon-Tue: Slight chc of MVFR at times in shwrs both afternoons.
Otherwise VFR.
Wed: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
The pressure gradient in the short term remains weak enough to
keep seas and winds below SCA thresholds for all forecast waters
through Saturday night. However, within any thunderstorms, there
could be brief gusty winds and higher seas.
Sub SCA levels are forecast with weak departing low pressure on
Sunday, and weak high pressure building in thereafter.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall totals have decreased compared to previous forecast.
Storm total rainfall forecast near 3/4 of an inch for Eastern
Long Island and Southeast CT with otherwise near 1/2 inch. Minor
flooding will be possible with some thunderstorms in poor
drainage and low lying areas.
No hydrologic impacts are expected from Sunday through Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents this weekend with around
3 ft waves with 7 to 8 second dominant period expected. NW flow
with winds Saturday and the winds become more southerly Sunday.
Minor coastal flood benchmarks are likely to be reached for the
western south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau for this
evening`s high tide, and possibly for Saturday evening as well.
Tidal departures will run around 1 to 1 1/2 ft, with some
locations having departures closer to 2 ft. Latest Stevens
Guidance looks to be running slightly above observed values so
think only some of the gauges in South Shore Bays reach minor
coastal flood benchmarks with no other coastal flooding
expected. Saturday`s forecast water levels are a little less
than tonight and with NW flow think water levels will end up
being lower than tonight as well, so chances for minor coastal
flooding Saturday night for South Shore Bays is quite low.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/MW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...