Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/16/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1048 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry through Friday Night
- Rain chances (20-60%) from Saturday into Monday. Highest rain
chances across northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and south
of Interstate 90 in western Wisconsin from Saturday night into
Sunday.
- Dry with above-normal temperatures much of next week.
Through Friday Night...
High pressure will provide dry weather through Friday night.
Northeast winds around this high has pushed much of the surface
smoke and lower visibilities west and south of the area. The HRRR
and RAP continues to indicate that the elevated smoke will likely
linger across the area tonight and then looks less on Friday.
From Saturday into Monday...
A closed low pressure will move southeast from South Dakota and
Nebraska into the Tennessee River Valley. This system will
provide a chance (20 to 60%) of showers and thunderstorms from
Saturday into Monday. The eastern extent of this precipitation
will be impacted by drier air rotating around a high pressure
system over the eastern Great Lakes. The highest rain chances
will be across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and south of
Interstate 90 in western Wisconsin from Saturday night into
Sunday. With the shear and CAPES remain rather weak, not seeing
any organized severe weather.
Tuesday through Thursday...
An upper level ridge will build across the region. 850 mb
temperatures will warm into the 18 to 20C range. This will result
in high temperatures ranging from the mid-80s to lower 90s. The
warmest temperatures will be in the river valleys where the dry,
sandy soils will help amplify the warming. Like yesterday, the NBM
is close to the 25th percentile, so might have to raise them as we
approach this time period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
A decaying band of MVFR stratus moves from central Wisconsin
towards southwestern Wisconsin overnight, but is unlikely (<20%)
to reach the Mississippi River. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for the TAF period as smoke pushes to the southwest of
the region. Winds will be light (< 10 kts) from the east to
northeast.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Skow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1012 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry/pleasant weather is expected Friday outside of a few
showers possible late in the day across interior southern New
England. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall are expected late Friday night into
Saturday, as low pressure crosses the region. A few showers are
expected at times Sunday through Tuesday with cooler than
normal temperatures, but not expecting a washout. Drier & warmer
more seasonable temperatures are expected by Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...
Other than a few weakening/decaying showers moving south thru NH
into northern MA at 10 pm, dry weather is expected overnight.
Reasonably comfortable tonight by June standards, with dew pts
in the 50s. Although could be sufficient low level moisture for
some radiational fog. Previous forecast captures these details,
thus no major changes with this forecast update. Earlier
discussion below.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A small weakening cluster of showers across northwest Middlesex
county will likely dissipate with the next hour or so as it
moves southeast. Otherwise...dry and mainly clear tonight as
winds go calm across the typical low-lying locations and light W
elsewhere. Dewpoints will be the biggest deterrent towards
radiational cooling, such that temps will only bottom out in the
mid 50s to low 60s overnight.
Given high dewpoints and light/calm winds, anticipating that
patchy fog is possible in the typically low-lying locations;
though coverage will be less than nights past. Fog is most
likely in the habitually offending locations of Orange, interior
SE MA, etc.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...
Cloudless conditions will persist through at least the
first half of Friday, though we would be remiss to call Friday
a "clear" day, as smoke will advect from Canadian Wildfires,
leading to a hazy appearance of the sky. Fortunately, none of
the forecast smoke, from the HRRR and RAP models, will be
surface based (from the surface to 26ft), so unlike our last few
bouts with smoke, residents of southern New England will not be
able to smell it. Additionally, we do not anticipate any air
quality concerns, though will work with our state partners to
determine the need for any products should the forecast change
significantly. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low
and perhaps mid 80s, a welcome summer like change give the
chilly start to the month.
Friday Night...
Clouds will increase the latter part of the day, especially across
the western half of the CWA, as a very potent shortwave dives to our
west into central PA and southern New York. Compared to previous
forecasts, the shortwave has appeared to slow its progression into
southern New England, such that any showers and associated
thunderstorms will hold off until after 00Z; though, it is possible
that a few showers make it into western MA/Central CT as early as
21Z if you put a lot of stock in the often too robust HRRR. Guidance
suggests that showers will be primarily isolated to NW MA before
pivoting in from the south between 05 and 07Z at which time rain
will increase in both intensity and coverage. The primary concern
with this shortwave is the potential for flooding rain, as the
modest LLJ of 30-35 kt pins itself along the inverted trough axis
which will combine with the advancing shortwave, resulting in some
pretty heavy rain showers. Given the slow progression of the system,
we do expect that rain showers may remain almost stationary for a
period of time, resulting in poor drainage and urban street
flooding. Localized flash flooding is also possible, with our area
of primary concern somewhere across RI or eastern MA at this time. A
reasonable worst case scenario lies in the HREF Prob Match Mean
product, which currently pinpoints up to 4-5 inches of rain
somewhere across SE MA through 12Z Saturday. While we do not
anticipate widespread rain totals this high, a widespread 1-2" of
somewhere in our area is likely with isolated higher totals
possible.
Convection associated with this system will be mostly elevated, with
little to no surface instability. With that said, we do expect
embedded sub-severe thunderstorms give MUCAPE values of
600-1200 j/kg and modest bulk shear values of ~30kt. While low
level lapse rates will be good, up to 8-9C/km, mid level lapse
rates will be poor, less than 6C/km, and the capping inversion
will limit any surface based forcing to extend into the mid
levels. Winds will variable in direction as the low moves near
to an over southern New England, thus, winds will be variable,
generally less than 15 kt, outside of thunderstorms. Gusts to 30
kt cannot be ruled out in the strongest cells.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...
* Numerous showers/scattered t-storms Sat with a low risk of flooding
* Below normal temps Sun/Mon/Tue with a few showers but not a washout
* Drier weather Wed/Thu with warmer more seasonable temperatures
Details...
Saturday & Saturday night...
Anomalous closed upper level low moves across southern New England
Saturday into Saturday night. This accompanied by an inverted
surface trough and elevated instability will support numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.
Surface instability will be limited by clouds & showers
with high temps mainly in the 60s to the lower 70s...coolest of
those readings most likely in north central/northeast MA.
Therefore...the severe weather threat is low. However...given the
anomalous 500 mb shortwave for this time of year coupled with an
inverted trough a small risk for localized flash flooding exists.
This would be a localized threat and dependent on mesoscale
factors. When you have strong upper level dynamics/elevated
instability with an inverted trough this time of year it
needs to be watched for a localized flash flood threat. For what
its worth the Colorado State Machine Learning Probabilities indicate
a low risk for excessive rainfall.
Sunday through Tuesday...
Upper trough will be slow to depart the northeast with a surface
high pressure system eventually building southward into
Quebec/northern New England early next week. This will keep the
surface flow onshore and result in high temps cooler than normal.
Highs will probably be in the 70s with even 60s at times especially
along the coast. Still the risk for some showers at times
given upper trough in the vicinity...but not expecting a washout.
Wednesday and Thursday...
Upper trough will finally have departed and is replaced by rising
height fields Wed into Thu. This will result in warmer more
seasonable temperatures returning along with drier weather. The
magnitude of the warmup remains uncertain. It does appear the
highest temps will actually be found to our north across parts of
Quebec/northern New England give the upper level pattern...but
certainly warmer than what we will experience this weekend into
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster
Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
02z TAF Update...no change from previous TAFs. Earlier
discussion.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight...High Confidence
VFR except for the risk for very localized patchy ground fog
late in the typically prone locations. Calm/light W winds.
Friday...
VFR. A few brief showers may develop late in the day across the
interior. SW winds 5-10 knots but a period of an ESE/SE sea
breeze are expected to develop along parts of the immediate
eastern MA coast by early afternoon.
Friday Night...
Remaining VFR gives way quickly to MVFR, IFR, and localized LIFR
as thunderstorms and heavy rain overspread the region. Best
chance for thunder will be after 00Z at all terminals. Rain will
be heavy at times, and will reduce vsbys. Wet conditions persist
overnight. Winds variable between the south and the east, but
mainly light outside of thunderstorms. Gusts to 30 kt possible
in strong storms.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. A period of ESE/SE sea
breezes are expected by 16z/17z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Saturday Night: SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.
Sunday: Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Slight chance SHRA, isolated
TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High confidence.
Dry. Winds SW 10-15 kts. Seas 2-4 ft. SCA in place for waves in
excess of 5 ft across the southern waters through 03Z tonight;
observations are supportive of these wave heights. Isolated
patchy fog possible in Buzzards Bay/Nantucket sound.
Friday...High confidence.
Mainly dry, though chance for some isolated showers and
thunderstorms late Friday evening. SW winds 10-15 kts. Seas 2-3
ft.
Friday Night... Moderate Confidence.
Showers and Thunderstorms will increase in coverage after 00Z
Saturday. While thunderstorms are expected to be sub-severe,
they will bring heavy rain to the waters. Visibility may be
reduced at times. This system will be slow moving, thus, winds
are expected to remain below 20kt, though, isolated gusts to 30
kt cannot be ruled out in strong thunderstorms.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely, chance of
thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Juneteenth: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/KS
NEAR TERM...Frank/Nocera/KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera/KS
MARINE...Frank/KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
452 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Forecast concerns deal with heavy rainfall today through Friday in
the short term.
Currently...Cold front has sagged into the CWA and is currently
laying along a line from Hays Springs Nebraska...west to Marsland
Nebraska in the Panhandle...to just north of Wheatland Wyoming to
a low pressure system near Muddy Gap in Carbon County. This has
been the focus area for convection so far for the CWA as storms
develop along this front. SBCAPE along this front has been around
1500J/KG for SPC`s mesoanalysis page. Further south of the
front...current SBCAPE up near 2000 J/KG over the southern
Panhandle. 500mb upper trough lays across western Wyoming...with
vort maxes spinning out of the trough into Carbon and Converse
Counties. Looking like the latest HRRR is handling the initial
convection pretty good so far this afternoon.
HRRR advertising the front to continue sagging south to near a
line from Sidney to Wheatland to Muddy Gap. Would expect an
increase in convective activity later this afternoon as this takes
place. SBCAPE remains high late this afternoon with SPC`s
mesoanalysis page forecasting CAPE near 2000 J/KG. Very
negligable sfc-6km shear. Think for the most part...severe weather
will be minimal with primary hazard being heavy rainfall.
Upper trough slowly moving through the northern CWA this
evening...so expect fairly widespread showers and storms to
continue overnight.
Front clears the CWA late Friday morning as upper trough begins to
lift north into northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana. May be able
to clear Flash FLood Watches earlier than advertised...maybe as
early as 18Z. Dry conditons definitely by 00Z.
Mainly dry Saturday as height rises begin across the CWA at 500mb.
Could still see some scattered convection along the I-80 corridor
from Sidney to Elk Mountain Saturday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023
A dry start to the long term will slowly transition to higher
precipitation chances. Warm temperatures are expected with Monday
being the warmest day. Gusty winds are likely Sunday through Tuesday
before the winds decrease for the latter portions of the long term.
An upper-level ridge will dominate the CONUS Sunday through Tuesday,
preventing any significant precipitation chances for southeast
Wyoming and western Nebraska. An upper-low churns over the Pacific
Northwest with a deepening trough, which strengthens the ridge over
the central CONUS. The upper-level system slowly shifts easterly
towards the CWA. The strong southwesterly flow aloft coupled with
the deepening trough promotes strong winds across the CWA Sunday
through Tuesday. Winds could gust over 30 kts. As the ridge
strengthens on Monday temperatures increase to the upper-70s to low-
80s west of I-25 and upper-80s to mid-90s east of I-25.
On Tuesday, an embedded shortwave traverses through the upper-level
ridge, providing enough forcing to kick off precipitation chances
Tuesday. Tuesday will begin a pattern of wetter and cooler
conditions that continues through the remainder of the week.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler than Monday, with highs west
of I-25 in the mid-70s to low-80s and highs east of I-25 in the mid-
80s to low-90s. Another embedded shortwave impacts the CWA on
Wednesday, providing enough forcing for precipitation on Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler Wednesday, with highs in
the low-70s to low-80s across the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 443 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Active weather is expected to continue over the next 24 hours,
with a cold front continuing to dig across the CWA. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain likely along this boundary across much
of Wyoming and Nebraska tonight and into tomorrow. Main
challenges will include timing of the storms as they pass each
terminal through the late night hours. At this time, HiRes model
guidances has suggested that most storms should be VCSH for the
majority of terminals after 09z. Additional, some fog potentials
early tomorrow morning across KLAR, KRWL, and KCDR where plenty
of low to mid-level moisture and favorable winds exist.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Minimal fire weather concerns as a slow moving cold front moves
through the area today through Friday. This front will be the
focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms across southeast
Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon. Showers and storms
will continue overnight...though they are expected to weaken with
lack of surface heating. Widespread showers and storms continue
Friday and Flash Flood Watches will remain in effect for much of
the forecast area through Friday afternoon. Drier weather returns
for the weekend...though afternoon storms will be possible south
along the I-80 corridor Saturday afternoon. Mainly dry and warmer
Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday through Friday
as a Pacific low pressure system slowly moves across the districts.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain will occur with the slower moving
storms and storms repeatedly moving over the same areas. These rains
will fall on soils already saturated from recent heavy rains. Flood
Watches are in effect for much of the region Thursday afternoon through
Friday afternoon.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for WYZ102-108-119.
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for WYZ101-103>107-110-
114>118.
NE...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-
055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MRD
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
HYDROLOGY...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
219 PM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Visibility sensors do not appear to be dropping on the south side
of the International Border much. Ended up using HRRR Smoke
Concentrations and reverse engineering it to get haze for hourly
Wx through tonight and into tomorrow. Hourly wind data was also
reduced some over the next 12 to 18 hours as Fcst values tended to
be about 5 mph too high for today.
Looking forward dry conditions are expected until Saturday when
the slow breakdown of the ridge begins. While it may just be
general thunder Friday Saturday and Sunday have a much greater
chance of severe storms. There is a small chance that Sunday could
have a Lake Wind Advisory as current speeds are just on the edge
of criteria. Afterwards, the Pacific Northwest trough will move
further inland and bring greater than average chances of rainfall
to the region. GAH
930AM UPDATE:
With new RAP smoke model data coming in will be paying closer
attention to visibility and potential for haze this afternoon. RAP
Smoke pushes a concentration of ground smoke through the region
this afternoon which may have health effects for those who are
sensitive. Some canadian sites across the border are pushing 5SM,
but RAP smoke model predictions for visibility do not drop the
incoming smoke to less than 10SM in northeast Montana which is a
bit of a contradiction and kinda muddies the waters as to how
strong it will be and the confidence in it. We have not added haze
to the Wx yet as it is typically generated from Visibility which
is currently maxed. We are now monitoring and waiting for any
model or observation site to show signs of a drop south of the
border before moving full steam ahead with a forecast update
though. GAH
MORNING DISCUSSION:
High pressure system moves into the area today within a dry slot
that will be to the south of an upper low moving through the
Canadian Prairies. A lingering shower is possible this morning in
Wibaux County as the cold front moves to the east. Otherwise,
skies will be clear to partly cloudy. WNW winds will be strong
enough behind the cold front today that a Lake Wind Advisory will
be in effect for Fort Peck Lake.
Winds will diminish tonight and dry weather will continue with
shortwave ridge over the area on Friday. Temperatures will warm
Friday and Saturday as southerly winds bring warmer air into the
region. A weak shortwave could bring a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms to parts of the area Saturday Night.
Sunday looks like it will be the warmest day with a shortwave
ridge in the morning. Flow aloft turns to the SW Sunday afternoon
and bring a cold front into the area Sunday Night and Monday with
a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A strong, deep upper low moves into British Columbia and
Washington State on Sunday. The low will be slow to move east or
NE next week as models and ensembles differ on where this system
will move. The forecast area will remain in a prolong period of
moist SW flow aloft with multiple shortwaves energy through our
region with frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms. For
now, the best model consensus favors the NW half of our CWA
receiving heavier rain than the SE half. WPC has outlined this
area for a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED: 2000Z
FLIGHT CAT: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: Low pressure to the north will drop strong NW winds
with a chance for dragging SMOKE and HAZE into the region this
afternoon and evening. Some sites in Canada have dropped as low
as 4SM / MVFR. There is a small chance MVFR could impact KGGW or
KOLF this evening. HRRR Smoke model concentrations were used to
manufacture HAZE and 6SM for the TAFs, but these models do not
themselves have visibility drops which muddies the waters and
lowers confidence in this.
WINDS: Northwest at 15-25 kts this afternoon with the strongest
winds at KGGW and KOLF. Northwest wind diminishing to 5-10 kts
around sunset through tonight. Slowly reversing to the south and
light Friday.
GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck
Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
...Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 510 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Key Messages:
* Off and on shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon
through Saturday night, with overall greatest chances/coverage
expected Friday afternoon through Saturday evening.
* Widespread and/or organized severe weather is not expected, but
isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms as well as
locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
* Dry and warmer Sunday through early next week - highs well into
the 90s Monday and Tuesday.
* Thunderstorm chances return for middle to end of next week.
Forecast Details:
Today has been another warm and dry day across the region, though
changes are on the horizon (literally and figuratively). As
mentioned over the previous couple of days, the next (seasonably
potent) upper disturbance is ejecting out of NM/CO and onto the
central and southern Plains this aftn. The brunt of this energy
still looks to remain S of the CWA, as will the greatest
thunderstorm and severe weather risk. However, at least glancing
influence from the upper wave (mostly in the form of upper
divergence/diffluence), along with strong insolation, steep low
level lapse rates, and no CINH could all combine to produce some
iso-widely scat tstms through late eve, mainly W and S of the Tri-
Cities. Deep layer wind shear is very weak, so only concern is
potential for pulse-type activity with very brief marginally
severe hail/wind. Both H85-H3 and Corfidi vectors are very weak at
around 10kt, or less, so very iso heavy rain will also be
possible. Given lack of shear/upper level support, suspect most or
all of this activity will dissipate with loss of daytime heating.
Thus, have lowered PoPs after late eve substantially, and are now
only slgt chc. Lgt and vrbl winds by dawn could lead to some
patchy/shallow fog, but don`t expect anything significant attm.
Thunderstorm chcs look to incr on Fri along and ahead of a weak
cold front that is forecast to move through during the eve hrs.
May even see some iso-widely scat activity develop by mid-aftn
along what appears to be a very weak sfc trough axis. Models are
pretty muddled with low level flow during the daytime hrs, so
confidence on location of such weak features is quite low.
Nonetheless, pooling low level moisture, strong heating, and
seasonably cool H7 temps only near ~6C suggest it will be pretty
easy to reach convective temps by ~21Z. Models have come into
better agreement that a swath of moderate instability (MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/kg) should lie SW to NE across CWA by peak heating.
Deep layer shear remains weak thru late aftn...so would expect
activity to behave similar to today - pulsey cores with fairly low
end risk for marginally severe hail/wind. This is pretty high
confidence...but COVERAGE of storms through 00Z Sat remains a bit
uncertain. Lowered highs a couple deg given additional clds/pcpn
expected by late aftn, but still should see 80s to near 90F.
Also relatively low confidence is the potential for an MCS to
develop over/near the CO/NE/KS border area Fri aftn then shift
E/NE into at least portions of the CWA Fri eve and/or overnight.
CAM guidance is quite varied with specifics...but there is a
general trends towards a scenario such as this. The biggest
unknowns are timing and intensity...both of which are related. If
activity organizes sooner out west, then an earlier and stronger
MCS will be possible for our area. This scenario most closely
resembles the 18Z HRRR and suggests a non-zero risk for severe
wind, esp. in our W/SW zones during the late eve. If the activity
over the High Plains struggles to organize during the aftn, then a
later and weaker scenario would be favored for our area. This is
similar to solutions such as the 12Z NSSL and ARW which suggest
just garden variety activity mainly well after midnight. CWA is
currently just grazed by the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk, but wouldn`t
be surprised to see this expand northward given magnitude of aftn
instability as well as non-zero chc for MCS to move in during eve.
Another concern is potential for locally heavy rainfall, esp. with
any activity that develops along the front Fri aftn. Mean wind and
Corfidi vectors are once again weak, and pooling moisture and
potential for at least some training along the front won`t help
either. Ongoing drought and recent warm/dry weather will allow for
most areas to take 1-2" no problem, but anything more than 2-3"
over only a few hrs could be an issue - which looks to be possible
on at least an iso basis.
Trough axis lingers in the area through Saturday, but specific
details regarding shwr/tstm coverage/intensity will largely depend
on what unfolds Fri night. Conceptually speaking, E/SE half of CWA
look to have best chcs during daytime/eve given closer proximity
to primary instability axis per latest models. However, the entire
CWA will see decent upper level support via ejecting shortwave
trough. Potential for widespread/persistent cld cover and off and
on pcpn will probably keep temps cooler in the 70s to low 80s.
Not much time spent beyond Sat, but still appears subsidence and
rising heights will kick in support dry weather for Father`s Day
Sunday. Further height rises through early next week will lead to
copious sunshine and warmer temps (IMO downright HOT), with highs
well into the 90s. A somewhat more active pattern could arrive for
mid to end week, but confidence on details regarding
timing/location of main upper features is low attm.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
The winds will be southeasterly this evening and will become VRB
overnight. Light winds in combination with higher dewpts could
give us some -BR tomorrow morning. Debated about including VCTS
tomorrow afternoon, but looking at the HRRR and other models there
could be some pop ups tomorrow afternoon and decided to hedge
with VCTS for now.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Beda
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
651 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
A shortwave trough moving along the OK and KS state line will move
eastward across the area tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms developing across western Kansas this
afternoon will spread east and southeastward toward the area
tonight. The highest probabilities for deep moist convection are
expected to remain further south of the area but locations near the
OK state line may be impacted this evening before the sfc-based
storms diminish. The RAP is most favorable supporting a few elevated
storms within a weak area of low-lvl moisture transport although the
main show is expected to impact OK this evening and tonight.
The mid/upper ridge will amplify over the area on Fri likely
suppressing deep moist convection during the day across the area.
An approaching frontal boundary is expected to remain north and
west of the area across the Central High Plains. Afternoon and
evening storms developing across the High Plains may drift
southeastward into portions of central KS before diminishing and
pops were trended slightly lower as the nocturnal signal appears
rather weak at this time. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated
with highs around 90 for most areas.
Sat...The mid/upper ridge is progged to break down on Sat as a
shortwave trough emerges from the Rockies and moves into the Central
Plains. A stalled frontal boundary may become a focus for showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. This boundary is expected
to bisect the area in the vicinity of I-135. Moderate CAPE and 40
kts of 0-6km deep layer shear will likely lead to some storm
organization and severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
Saturday evening, especially across southern KS where the higher
pops will reside.
Sun...Some lingering showers and storms may impact eastern KS early
in the period on Sun while a stable post-frontal regime builds into
the area from west to east. Seasonable temperatures will persist
with highs in the 80s/around 90 for most areas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
The mid/upper ridge is progged to return to the region early in
the week with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting
rising temperatures across the area Mon-Tue. Some areas may see
highs in the upper 90s. Another blocking pattern may set up toward
the latter portion of the week as we remain under the influence
of mid/upper level ridging. It`ll be hard to rule our some
diurnally driven showers and storms while near or above normal
temperatures persist across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
HIGHER CONFIDENCE...Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening across mainly south-
central Kansas and southern portions of central Kansas. Could see
outflow gusts of 25-40 kts or so at HUT and ICT prior to 04z.
Hit-or-miss showers remain possible overnight across these areas.
LOWER CONFIDENCE...Hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
are possible this evening and overnight further north at RSL and
SLN as the upper low progresses over the region. Further east-
southeast...CNU could eventually see some hit-or-miss showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm after 05-06z or so, but thinking better
chances will remain further south-southwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 63 90 66 90 / 30 10 20 40
Hutchinson 62 90 64 88 / 40 10 20 40
Newton 62 89 64 89 / 30 10 20 50
ElDorado 62 87 65 88 / 30 10 20 50
Winfield-KWLD 63 87 65 90 / 60 10 10 30
Russell 60 90 62 84 / 40 20 30 40
Great Bend 59 88 62 83 / 40 20 30 40
Salina 63 92 64 88 / 10 10 20 50
McPherson 62 90 64 88 / 20 10 20 50
Coffeyville 65 89 66 90 / 20 10 10 30
Chanute 65 89 67 90 / 10 10 10 40
Iola 64 89 66 90 / 10 10 10 50
Parsons-KPPF 65 89 66 90 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
904 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
The overall forecast is on track but decided to increase the
coverage and mention of haze this evening over southern IN/north
central KY. On visible satellite you can see the area of wildfire
smoke along and just south of the Ohio River. The 8pm EDT
observation from SDF was reporting haze and visibility of 5 miles.
That could continue overnight with a low-level inversion expected to
set up overnight trapping some of the smokey haze close to the
surface, mainly around the Louisville Metro. Could see limited
visibility due to the haze anywhere from 5 to 6 miles. The rest of
the forecast looks to be on track so no other changes were made.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Latest surface analysis shows widespread high pressure across the OH
Valley with a low pressure center over the Mitten State. A weak
trough along the MS River is also evident, which provided enough
lift for showers and thunderstorms to develop across TN. Closer to
home, radar is quiet while GOES-16 visible imagery shows fair
weather cumulus dotting the CWA. Loose pressure gradient has
resulted in light and variable winds across the Commonwealth while
KY Mesonet observations report highs so far today in the low to
mid 80s.
The cold front, associated with the aforementioned low pressure
system over MI, will continue to encroach southward overnight with
FROPA across our area occurring around sunrise. PGF will increase
behind the front resulting in an increase in winds out of the NNW.
Expect gusts in the 15-20mph range throughout the day Friday. Min
temps Friday morning will be a bit tricky due to the timing of
FROPA, but expect southern Indiana to see lows in the mid to upper
50s while most of central KY remains in the 60s. Afternoon highs
will be several degrees cooler Friday within the modified cP
airmass, with mercury rising into the upper 70s to low 80s north of
of the I-64 corridor and into the mid 80s south of there.
Best chances of precipitation will be overnight to sunrise across
southern Indiana and the northern portion of the Bluegrass as a
ribbon of higher PWATs (~1.30") along the frontal boundary pushes
into the area. Model soundings show weak thermodynamics and
kinematics during FROPA, so any thunder activity would have to
advect southward from IN. Latest CAMs show very little if any
convection making its way into our area, but will add slight chance
mention across the northern Bluegrass.
Last item worthy of mention is the return of hazy skies from
Canadian wildfires. HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke product shows a
concentrated slug of particulates accompanying the new airmass
behind the front, which should result in an obvious haze aloft
during the day tomorrow. This could also make for a photogenic
sunset though, so keep those phones and cameras at the hip.
.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Impacts/Highlights:
* Showers and thunderstorms possible each day next week
* Heavier rain possible Monday
High pressure will bring quiet and seasonal weather Saturday to
start the weekend.
Then, a trough/shortwave moving out of the Plains gets trapped
between ridges over the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Great Lakes. A
cutoff upper low develops over the Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday and
meanders over the area through much of next week. A surface low
drifts underneath the upper low through the period pulling Gulf
moisture northward and providing a focal point for shower and
thunderstorm activity and a rise in humidity levels.
Right now it looks like Monday will be the wettest day of the week
with the upper low overhead and surface low just to our west. In
fact, some much-needed widespread heavy rain is possible Monday.
But after that, precipitation chance details will be hard to pin
down with the drifting low pressure area. Expect at least the chance
of precipitation all next week with the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
While we have haze associated with Canadian wildfires and a weak
cold front dropping out of Indiana into our area tonight into
tomorrow flight categories will remain VFR. Winds will be light and
variable this evening with some haze lingering overnight. By
tomorrow winds will shift and increase some behind the passing cold
front that moves from north to south during the early morning hours.
Some gust in the afternoon could reach 15 to maybe 20kts in the
afternoon out of the north-northeast. Skies will remain mainly clear
but expect more wildfire haze to move in across the region.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...BTN
Short Term...CG
Long Term...KJF
Aviation...BTN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
818 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
No significant changes to going forecast.
Cold front continues to sag south of the WFO LOT forecast area at
mid-evening, with dry, cool and breezy conditions expected to
persist into the overnight hours. Still seeing a few haze
observations from near-surface wildfire smoke west of the Fox
River Valley in northern IL, though latest HRRR smoke runs
continue to indicate this will decrease markedly from the east
through midnight. Aloft is another story however, with a murky sky
despite little actual cloud coverage this evening per GOES IR
imagery. Denser smoke does look to persist aloft overnight and
into Friday per 18Z HRRR vertically integrated smoke progs, and
have increased sky cover to maintain at least partly cloudy
conditions on account of this. Actual low level cloud cover is
also expected to increase from the northeast after midnight,
lingering into Friday morning before scattering out by afternoon.
Other than aforementioned sky cover tweaks and hourly temp/dew
point adjustments based on obs trends, going forecast is in good
shape and not other changes needed this evening.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Through Friday night...
It has been quite the day watching buoy and surface observations
through the front passage. As the front marched down about an hour
or two quicker than originally anticipated from Wisconsin and
northern Lake Michigan. As it did, winds quickly switched around
to the north and increased rapidly. White caps were observed on
the lake and a 36 knot wind gust observed at the Racine ob prompted
a marine weather statement to alert those who opted to still
venture out on the waters to seek safe harbor. As mentioned, the
temperatures have dropped behind the front. O`Hare was 80 degrees
Fahrenheit a little before noon, and in just two hours have
dropped below 67 degrees. There has been some clearing of clouds
as the front has moved southward, yet haze still remains for many
inland areas.
A discrete area of cumulus clouds have bubbled up on the leading
edge of the front along the eastern periphery of the CWA, and has
continued to grow. Mesoanalysis shows between 500-1000 J/kg CAPE
for the eastern counties and with the front providing subsequent
lift, thunder was kept in the forecast through around 7 PM;
however, severe storms are not expected. Precipitation from this
system is not expected to be impressive. Maybe the atmosphere
squeezes out a few hundredths to locally a tenth or so. However,
if a thunderstorm does develop, periods with heavy rain rates,
lightning generation and locally erratic surface winds should be
expected. Such a threat exists from Pontiac to Kankakee to
Rensselaer through 7 PM.
The other main impact from Thursday`s front are the steep waves
that were generated from the strong winds and wind gusts. Waves
heights just under 6 feet have already been observed at the
Wilmette Buoy in Illinois and starting to build toward 3 feet
along the Indiana shoreline. A high swim risk remains in effect
through Friday morning, and given the amount of energy that the
wind is imposing on the waves, there is a strong chance that the
risk level will be extended into Friday afternoon.
An upper level ridge at 500 mb starts building and moving eastward
on Friday. Temperatures will remain below normal, but the more
stable conditions are forecast to make for a drier day to end the
work week. The main forecast concerns will be keep an eye on the
lake and if conditions improve quicker than current expectations.
DK
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Saturday through Thursday...
Key Forecast Message:
* Continued primarily dry weather, seasonable to above normal
warmth inland and cooler lakeshore
* Best chance for isolated to perhaps widely scattered t-storms
Sunday afternoon-evening inland of Lake Michigan
Short-wave ridging and dry high pressure will bring quiet
conditions through most of Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will
be in the lower to mid 80s inland and low to mid 70s near Lake
Michigan. On Father`s Day, the ridging will be somewhat suppressed
by incoming weak troughing approaching the MS River. Short-wave
tracking across the mid-MS Valley during the day on Sunday will
develop into a weak closed mid-upper low that will drift southeast
through Monday and then become nearly stationary over the interior
southeast/mid South through late next work week. The upper low
will become yet another blocking ridge over the region.
Sensible weather wise, just enough large scale forcing and modest
pooling of dewpoints (likely a good deal lower than GFS and NAM)
well inland Sunday PM of minimally capped axis of generally less
than 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may kick off isolated to widely scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. Whatever convection is able to
fire may inch eastward on outflows into Sunday evening before
diminishing. Kept thunder chances in the slight chance (isolated
range) into Sunday evening. The footprint of the marine stable
layer should generally limit the threat for any storms to inland
of the lake.
The rest of the period looks mainly dry given the projected path
of the upper low, blocking ridge over the top, and dry east-
northeast low level flow. Coverage of any showers inland on Monday
PM should be less than Sunday, with any t-storms likely confined
to south of the IL and Kankakee Rivers. Have some slight chance
PoPs southeast half or third of the CWA Tuesday-Thursday PM,
though even that low potential may be overstated by some of the
NBM members having dew points solidly above what is likely to
materialize given the expected surface pattern.
Forecast highs Sunday-Thursday are generally in the mid-upper 80s
inland and 70s near the lake given due to seemingly never-ending
onshore flow. Drought feedback and mixed out dew points may
contribute to highs nearing or exceeding 90F across far interior
northern and central Illinois Monday through Thursday. Overnights
will remain comfortable amidst the lower dew point/humidity air
mass. Unfortunately expect drought conditions to worsen through
next work week.
Castro
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Other than a few decaying MVFR clouds, VFR conditions are
expected this evening. NE gusts to around 20 knots at TAF issuance
will gradually diminish this evening, with N/NNE winds under 10
knots likely overnight. MVFR ceilings across Lower Michigan will
advect SSW into northeast Illinois during the early morning hours.
Cannot rule out some high-end IFR clouds, but ceilings are
expected to remain low-end MVFR (sub 2kft) through the morning
hours. Diurnal mixing should quickly erode the stratus by early
afternoon. Otherwise, have maintained SCT250 mention through the
TAF as wildfire smoke continues to filter over the region. It is
possible some VFR visibility restrictions develop late in the day
as mixing heights near the level of the smoke.
Kluber
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Beach Hazards Statement...ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104 until 1 PM Friday.
IN...Beach Hazards Statement...INZ001-INZ002 until 4 PM Friday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 10 AM Friday.
Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 1 PM Friday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1001 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
A few spotty showers remain across the northern Cumberland
Plateau and northern TN Valley but all other locations are dry.
Latest HRRR shows these showers dissipating over the next hour or
two. Otherwise, forecast on track will a quiet night ahead. Areas
that saw rain earlier today will likely see fog overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Key Messages:
1. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening.
2. Low clouds and patchy fog tomorrow morning, chance for showers
and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in association with a weak
front.
Discussion:
Radar and satellite imagery show thunderstorms firing across the
breadth of Tennessee this afternoon. Strongest cells are over in
Middle Tennessee, with most coverage occurring in areas with greater
than 1500J MLCAPE. Marginal shear exists along the border with
Georgia, so impacts from the storms will be regular summer impacts
of brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail in the
stronger storms. Expecting storms to diminish and dissipate this
evening with the loss of solar heating. Tomorrow morning more low
clouds and patchy fog will exist, with best chances of fog in the
southern valley where the most storms are now.
Taking a wider view, a strong lobe of vorticity will pivot through
the upper trough over the Great Lakes and northeastern US. At the
surface, a weak cold front will be progressing out of Kentucky right
at the time of peak heating, which should help fire isolated to
scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. CAM guidance focuses the
activity again in the southern valley, whereas NBM was more
aggressive in Virginia. Heading towards Friday evening, the cold
front pushes through portions of the area bringing an end to storm
chances as it clears past.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Key Message:
1. Dry Saturday before an unsettled pattern returns Sunday night
through the extended forecast.
Discussion:
Extended forecast begins on Saturday with dry and pleasant
conditions. Sunday evening leads us into a more unsettled pattern
for the rest of the long term forecast.
Surface low pressure will drift across and linger over TN as a
shortwave moves towards the TN River Valley on Sunday. Highest
chances for showers and thunderstorms are on Monday (70-80%) with
the frontal boundary somewhere across our forecast area. Monday
afternoon GFS Ensemble probabilities of CAPE > 500 range from 40-90%
across the area, with higher probabilities in the southern and
southwestern areas of our CWA, and lower probs in SW NC.
Probabilities for CAPE > 1000J/KG are generally ranging 20%-70%,
with the higher probabilities in the southern valley again. Because
of the uncertainty and lack of upper support, will still leave
any strong/severe wording out of HWO with these thunderstorms for
now.
Storm total QPF amounts for Sunday evening through mid-week are
highest in GSMNP and our NC counties (where we are outlooked in a
slight ERO), ranging from 2.5" to just under 4.0". The Plateau
and southern valley QPF totals are near 2.00", and Northwest TN
and SW VA are generally around 1.00". Continued wording in the HWO
for possible flooding concerns that may arise in any areas that
see repeated showers/storms over the next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023
VFR conditions expected at TYS and TRI through the period, though
a PROB30 for MVFR is in place at TRI tomorrow afternoon due to
showers. CHA will be mostly VFR but MVFR fog and ceilings
expected late tonight due to rainfall from earlier this
afternoon. Wind gusts up to 20kts tomorrow afternoon at all sites
from out of the west.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 88 64 89 / 20 20 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 86 61 85 / 10 30 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 63 87 59 85 / 10 20 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 81 54 80 / 20 40 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Williams
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1040 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
A quick update to add Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313, which
essentially includes McCurtain County Oklahoma, East Texas and NW
Louisiana along and north of I-20 corridor, and all of SW
Arkansas, except Union County. This watch will remain in effect
through 4 am, with damaging winds and large hail as the primary
threats. /20/
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
A quick update to grids to adjust POPs based on current trends.
Also, decided to let the Heat Advisory drop, although additional
heat products will be likely needed for tomorrow. This was
decided because there may be a need to go with an Excessive Heat
Warning, based on today`s heat index values. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast still remains. A cluster of severe
storms will likely move into the region later this evening and
through the overnight hours. Wind gusts over 50 kts will be
possible, along with large hail, and a threat for an isolated
tornado. Models indicate the convection should clear the region by
sunrise, with low clouds and patchy fog moving into the region.
Additional updates will be possible tonight, as Watches are likely
coming ahead of the convection. /20/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
After a warm and very humid afternoon across the ArkLaTex, this
evening will find the region poised to be on the receiving end of
yet another round of severe weather. The threat looks to take the
form of an organized line of storms entering our extreme southeast
Oklahoma and east Texas zones around the 03Z hour. Based on this
trajectory, the advancing system will propagate into an
environment very favorable for convective activity, with very high
CAPE indicating a thoroughly destabilized environment in east
Texas in particular. Concurrently, an area of vigorous bulk shear
values in excess of 60 kts will push east from north central
Texas, driving what has the potential to be an impactful severe
wind event. Mid- level lapse rates of 8 to 9 deg C/km over east
Texas suggest that if adequate lofting can be achieved, a few
large hailstones are not out of the question either. However, the
pronounced area of shear may result in such hail being widely
isolated in nature, if any manages to form. A tornado or two also
cannot be ruled out entirely, primarily across our
northeasternmost zones of east Texas and southeast Oklahoma.
Short range hires models continue to exhibit characteristic spread
on the timing of this system, though a reasonable consensus has been
reached regarding the mode of convection. HRRR and WRF-ARW both push
a north-south oriented squall line eastward, extending from just
south of the I-20 corridor to the north beyond I-30. WRF-ARW is far
more aggressive in terms of eastward trajectory, clearing the line to
our east as it dissipates by 06Z. HRRR, however, holds the line
together at a slower rate of speed, clearing the area at 09Z at the
earliest. The FV3 Hi-Res takes a slightly different approach,
extending the squall line further south into deep east Texas and
maintaining robust areas of convection in the evening which then
proceed break apart as they move east overnight. Based on the
favorable convective environment, the 17Z HRRR run appears
consistent with the most likely scenario, which is reflected in the
NBM model output in this afternoon`s PoP and wx grids.
With the CWA situated on the eastern side of a ridge building over
the Plains, northwesterly flow aloft will serve to funnel one system
after another down the Plains and into the ArkLaTex. Thus will it be
on Friday, which will dawn with tonight`s storms barely having
cleared the eastern edge of the CWA when another impulse of energy
will stir up a chance of storms across the northeastern third of the
area, particularly in southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas.
This action will continue into the afternoon, primarily east of the
I-49 corridor, retreating gradually to the east by midnight, after
which a few hours of quiet conditions will lead into Saturday
morning.
In addition to the ongoing rounds of severe weather, heat will also
continue to pose a potential hazard across our southernmost zones.
After a mild night of lows ranging from the upper 60s north to
middle 70s south, highs Friday will climb into the mid 80s north to
mid to upper 90s south. Concurrent with muggy dewpoints in the mid
70s, these conditions look to result in heat indices in the lower
100s during the afternoon hours across deep east Texas into
northwest Louisiana. Daybreak Saturday morning will see another
round of lows in the upper 60s north to upper 70s south.
/26/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
The long-term is hot, the long-term is humid, and the long-term is
awful. It finally looks like summer is about to make its presence
known across the region, as the NW flow pattern we`ve been stuck in
finally begins to break down. This will not be before another round
of severe weather skirts our far northern zones during the overnight
hours of Saturday, and into Sunday.
The stout upper-level ridge that we have been mentioning the last
few days has more or less been delayed in its progression by the
ever revolving boundary. However, it looks like by Sunday, the ridge
will finally begin to win that battle. High temperatures on Saturday
will already be creeping into the mid-90s in our southern zones,
with rain chances and the cloud deck insulating locations to our
north. While widespread severe weather doesn`t look likely for our
region Saturday night and into Sunday, there is certainly the chance
that a few of our northern counties see a strong to severe
thunderstorm. In fact, there is already a Day 3 and 4 outlook in
place for these areas, highlighting the chance for damaging winds
and hail. Rain chances for the remainder of the long-term will be
limited to our far eastern zones, with the flow aloft taking a more
N-S direction. However, these chances will be limited over the next
week.
The real weather story for the long-term will be the oppressive heat
that we`ve been mentioning the last few days. By the start of the
new workweek, afternoon highs across the region will likely hover in
the mid to upper-90s. Given how high afternoon humidity will be as
well, we will likely be looking at an extended period of Heat
Advisories. By the middle of the workweek, we may even be looking at
the need for Excessive Heat Warnings for some of our southern
counties and parishes.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
VFR conditions across the region at this hour. However, a strong
cluster of storms is expected to move across all TAF sites, except
KLFK, during the late evening and overnight period. Winds over 50
kts can`t be ruled out, along with large hail. Behind the
convection, expect low clouds and possibly patchy fog to settle
into the region near daybreak, with hot and humid and conditions
to follow by the end of the TAF period. /20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 93 76 96 / 70 20 10 10
MLU 72 91 72 92 / 70 40 20 10
DEQ 67 86 68 91 / 60 50 10 10
TXK 71 89 72 94 / 60 30 10 10
ELD 68 87 68 90 / 60 40 10 10
TYR 73 95 76 95 / 60 10 0 0
GGG 72 94 75 96 / 70 10 0 0
LFK 75 97 77 98 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20