Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
910 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
A weak frontal boundary continues to slowly slide southward this
afternoon, with only smoke the main impact. Satellite shows
extensive smoke across northeastern South Dakota and eastern ND, and
MN, with near surface smoke observed at a few locations, including
KETH. The HRRR near-surface smoke suggests the northeast third of
the CWA could see reduced visibility due to smoke, mainly during the
early morning hours. An approaching low pressure system and upper
level trough should push the smoke northward Thursday afternoon due
to southerly flow. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop
behind the surface low Thursday afternoon, mainly west of Highway
83. Precipitation chances should slowly progress eastward Thursday
night, with overall confidence lower due more scattered appearance
with CAMS. Due to the slower progress with the surface low, have
increased high temperatures on Thursday a few degrees across most of
the CWA. Highs should warm into the 80s and low 90s. Smoke over
northeastern SD and western MN may be a limiting factor.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Blocky split-flowish and semi-progressive mid level pattern looks to
continue for the long term. Upper trof currently over the PacNW will
slide northeast into Canada through Thursday, leaving behind some
bagginess in the H5 height field over the Rockies. A dying sfc front
will push across the region Thu-Friday, and will continue to be the
main focus for lift/convection during that time period. Meanwhile,
some energy aloft over the central and southern Rockies will migrate
into and across the Plains this weekend, with continued chances for
rain. As has been the case recently, severe chances look minimal
with only moderate CAPE forecast, and deep layer shear remains weak
through the period with stronger mid level winds expected to remain
both north and south of the forecast area. The early to mid part of
next week appears mainly dry as a decent looking mid level thermal
ridge advects across the Plains, with H7 temps ~10-13C. This will
provide for a decent cap, and likely limiting most convection Mon-
Wed to ares west of the Missouri valley. Near normal temperatures
this coming weekend will turn warmer than average for the first part
of next week as the ridge aloft expands over the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
tonight and through the day Thursday. There may be some slightly
reduced visibility due to wildfire smoke across parts of
northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota tonight and
Thursday. Also, showers and thunderstorms are possible across
central South Dakota Thursday afternoon, so there may be brief
periods of MVFR vsbys with any thunderstorms.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Key Messages:
- Smoke over the area into Thursday Night
- Rain chances from Friday Night into the Weekend
- Above-Normal Temperatures Next Week
Tonight through Thursday Night...
The HRRR and RAP models continue to show that will continue to
settle south into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and then
linger across most of the area through Thursday and then settle
mainly west of the Mississippi River on Thursday night. Neither of
these models are doing well on the visibilities. However, based
on smoke concentrations would expect this smoke to continue
to reduce visibilities mainly in the 2 to 4 mile range into
Thursday. The Wisconsin DNR has issued an Air Quality Alert for
our Wisconsin counties through noon Thursday and the Minnesota
Pollution Control Agency issued one for southeast Minnesota
through 6 AM Friday.
Friday Night into the Weekend...
The models continue to show that the omega high will break down.
This will allow a closed area of low pressure to move southeast
from the central and northern Plains southeast into the Tennessee
River Valley. High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep much of
the precipitation west and southwest of the area. Due to this
capped off the NBM precipitation chances at 54 percent or lower.
Monday through Wednesday...
Either a rex block or omega high will build across region early
next week. This will result in above-normal temperatures. The NBM
continues to run around the 25th NBM percentile (similar to late
May and early June). This seemed too cool based on the 850 mb
temperatures, so raised the maximum temperatures up closer to the
50th NBM percentile.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Smoke filtering southward tonight keeps visibilities at MVFR for
most locales with improving conditions from north to south from
late tonight through the afternoon. There is some uncertainty in
when the smoke clears at the TAF sites once daytime mixing occurs,
but have hedged more pessimistic with the TAFs in keeping RST at
MVFR through the day and LSE at low VFR. Light winds overnight
increase to 5-10 kts from the northeast during the morning.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Skow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1029 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through southern New
England this afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible with the main threats of hail and
damaging wind gusts. Our pattern remains unsettled later this
week into early next week, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1030 pm update...
Line of strong thunderstorms has moved well offshore of Cape Cod
at this hour and thus our threat for severe weather has come to
an end. Some showers have formed in the interior beneath the
core of the cold pool aloft, but are not expected to be anything
more than garden variety showers given lack of instability.
730 PM Update:
While convective activity has at least briefly ended across
western and central MA and CT, several thunderstorms associated
with modest convective instability (CAPEs around 1000 J/kg) and
mid- level diffluence have now shifted into eastern MA and RI,
several of which have become strong and in some cases have
pulsed to severe limits. This is ahead of an upper level low
over southern NY. This activity will move toward the NE through
9 PM, which may also clip Cape Cod and adjacent waters as well.
Thus a continued risk for instances of wind damage and pea to
penny size hail.
Thereafter we become governed by the upper level low, which
trudges eastward into interior sections of SNE. While we think
with reasonably strong confidence that the severe weather risk
will have ended, there may still be renewed showers and
thunderstorms, a few which could still pose a risk for small
sub-severe hail and lightning given the cold pocket of air aloft
(500 mb temps -18C). This is generally agreed upon by recent
shorter-term convection-allowing guidance. T-storm coverage
however should be less than earlier today (more isolated/widely
scattered). It isn`t clear how long this risk may last,
potentially into the late evening to midnight hrs with a
gradual wean-down in activity.
Clouds will persist well into the evening and overnight. There
may also be a risk for mist or fog once rain showers end, and
that most areas received rain today, it really couldn`t be ruled
out anywhere but the chances for dense fog seem quite low. Lows
tonight mainly in the 50s, perhaps near 60 across Cape Cod and
the Islands.
Previous discussion:
Highlights
* Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across southern New
England. Main threats are large hail and damaging wind gusts.
A cutoff low is initially located over northern PA/central NY
early this afternoon. The cutoff will rotate eastward into
southern New England this evening. The cutoff will lift into
Maine by early Thu. Low pressure will rotate into southern New
England tonight and the cold front associated with it will
slides through the south coast by late tonight. The surface low
will lift into the Gulf of Maine by early Thu.
Main concern in the forecast is the strong to severe
thunderstorm risk across southern New England as we head into
the evening. At this point am leaning toward the ARW and NSSL
WRF guidance as it has pegged current storm activity fairly well
along with the synoptic scale features. Will first start off
with the limiting factor with the activity at the moment is the
effective deep layer shear is somewhat marginal with SPC
Mesoanalysis showing 20-30 kts. This is anticipated to increase
especially across the south coast as the mid level jet pushes in
as the cutoff lifts into our area. The effective shear should
increase to around 40 kts across the south coast. This will
combine with sfc based CAPE values of roughly 500-1500 J/kg with
the highest values across the south coast. As we head into the
evening the instability will wane, but mid level lapse rates
will be increasing. This may be enough to keep activity together
as it moves into an increasing stable airmass. Low level lapse
rates are around 7-9 degrees Celsius per km before they diminish
this evening, while mid level lapse rates increase to 6-8
degrees Celsius as the upper low is moving in, which is also
when we will see 500 temps cooling to -15 to -20 degrees
Celsius. Looks like the best shot for the 60+ degree dew points
is also across the south coast per the latest HREF, which is
doing well based on the latest observations. There is more than
sufficient CAPE within the hail growth zone and given the cooler
air moving in aloft am expecting there to be a risk of large
hail and gusty winds as the scattered storms move through. As
previously mentioned there is a bit of backing across the CT
Valley as the LLJ is increasing and winds backing. This is
progged well by 100+ m2/s2 across the CT Valley late this
afternoon along with low LCL heights, so there is a low risk of
a tornado as indicated by the HREF.
The latest NCAR HRRR Neural Network guidance falls in line with
current severe timing thinking of roughly 21-01Z as the deep
layer shear is increasing with the highest probs across the
south coast. This matches well the SPC SREF Craven Brooks Sig
Svr greater than 10k highest probs and HRRR SCRAM values. Cannot
completely rule out stronger storms further to the north,
across MA. At this point the deep layer shear/instability
overlap is across the south coast, so will need to keep an eye
on things. Should see the activity diminish as instability wanes
tonight. After 9 PM think that there still could be a few
lingering showers with the low lifting through into early Thu.
Will see high temps top out in the mid 70s to low 80s across the
region today. Tonight low temps bottom out in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights
* Generally dry, but there could be a few spot showers across
the interior.
Caught under cyclonic flow through this period. A shortwave
ridge will build across the eastern Great Lakes into New
England. A shortwave may still rotate through northern New
England toward southern New England by the afternoon. A surface
trough will be over the region during this period.
Main focus of the forecast was on the near term period, but
given the shortwave digging toward the region during the
afternoon there could be a few spot showers. Am not overly
confident in this risk as the mid levels will be drying. As a
result have dialed back precip chances and honestly think for
most it will be dry, but there could be a few spot showers.
Expecting some downsloping as flow aloft shifts to the W/NW.
Will see temperatures warming at 925 hPa to 15 to 20 degrees
Celsius. Bumped temps up to the 75th percentile of guidance,
which results in highs ranging from the low 70s to the low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1140 AM Update:
Key Points:
* Wet weather pattern with near or slightly below normal temps
* Low risk of severe weather Saturday
Amplified and blocky upper air pattern is expected to persist into
next week per ensembles. Building upper ridge over northern Plains
will help another cutoff low form over eastern Great Lakes by end of
week which meanders over New England this weekend. By the middle of
next week, there are signs that Rex block pattern may take shape as
upper ridge becomes more W-E oriented from Great Lakes to Northeast
and a closed low develops near TN Valley.
This all means a continuation of near to slightly below normal
temperatures through the middle of next week along with scattered
showers or thunderstorms at times.
Main concern is potential for severe weather Saturday - right now
it`s a low risk but something to monitor in coming days. Ensembles
show decent probabilities of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE along with
fairly steep lapse rates (given presence of cold pool aloft
associated with cutoff low) but shear is relatively weak. However,
in these situations we can often see higher CAPE values compensate
for lack of deep shear. Colorado State Machine Learning probs also
have low probabilities centered over southern New England.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster
Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Scattered showers/storms end this evening followed by lower-end
VFR or MVFR cigs tonight and possibly into Thu. S/SW winds
5-10kt shift to W overnight and Thu.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Prevailing VFR/temporary
MVFR in TS to continue through about 02z. It is possible BOS
sees winds turn SE for a brief period after thunder ends, but
should come around to SW to W for the evening and overnight,
with BKN- OVC MVFR ceilings.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. There may be a renewed
risk for SHRA/psbl TS 01-05z; there may be scattered coverage
around but confidence in low if it will impact the TAF. Ceilings
turn MVFR after SHRA end overnight.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely,
slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA likely, chance
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tonight...High confidence.
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the evening. Any stronger storms may produce
strong to damaging wind gusts, large hail, reduced visibility
and rough seas. Late tonight there may still be a few lingering
showers. Winds out of the S at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20
kts. Tonight winds will shift to the SW at 10-20 kts and gusts
of 15-20 kts. There may be a few gusts to 25 kts across the
southern waters late. Seas 2-4 ft, but portions of the southern
outer waters may approach 5 ft. Given the marginal nature am
holding off on a SCA.
Thursday...High confidence.
Dry with winds SW 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts over the southern waters.
Seas 2-4 ft.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain
showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BL/JWD
NEAR TERM...BL/BW
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...Loconto/JWD
MARINE...Loconto/BL/JWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
546 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Forecast challenges focus on the return of heavy rainfall to much
of southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle.
Currently...Cold front looks to be situated across eastern
Montana...southwest to near Riverton...to northern Utah and
northern Nevada. Closer to home...a 1014mb surface high across
western Colorado. 700mb ridge axis has shifted east into the
Dakotas and central Nebraska. Current radar showing a few showers
developing over Carbon and Albany Counties.
Latest HRRR and RAP mesoscale simulated radar begins to develop
convection across southwest Carbon County towards 00Z. Surface low
develops across southwestern South Dakota towards midnight tonight
with the cold front moving into western portions of Converse and
Carbon Counties.
Widespread showers and storms expected to develop after sunrise
Thursday. Surface front is going to be bisecting the CWA from
northwest to southeast. At the same time...an upper vort trough
moves across the front that will aid in convective development.
PWATS up over an inch across the Panhandle to the east slopes of
the Laramie Range with .7 to .8 inch west.
GFS/ECMWF/SREF and NAM forecasting pretty hefty 6 hour QPF values
beginning across Carbon and Converse Counties after 18Z Thursday.
GFS soundings showing long skinny CAPE values indicating heavy
rainfall possibilities. Lift from the upper shortwave stays over
the CWA Thursday night...so convection expected to continue
overnight into Friday.
Not much movement of the upper trough through much of the day
Friday. Another round of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall
expected once again Friday with surface front ever so slowly
dropping southwest through the afternoon. By 00Z
Saturday...heavier precip shifts southeast out of our CWA into
southwest Nebraska and northeast Colorado.
Given already saturated soils and the widespread rainfall
expected...decided to issue a Flash Flood Watch for most of
southeast Wyoming Thursday afternoon...running through Friday
afternoon. Convection may start a bit later for the
Panhandle...but confidence is growing enough to issue a Flash
Flood Watch from Thursday night through Friday afternoon for these
areas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
A shortwave trough pushes eastward through southeast Wyoming and the
Nebraska panhandle Saturday producing chances for more showers and
thunderstorms. Shear and instability are currently minimal, so
significant impacts are not expected. Sunday and Monday a ridge
builds in, so much warmer and drier conditions are expected. High
temperatures may even reach 90s in portions of the Nebraska
panhandle!
Tuesday, models begin to diverge in their solutions as they try to
resolve a deep trough coming out of the PACNW. The GFS and ECMWF are
showing the central low pressure system pushing north into Canada,
but keeping the trough stationary across the western CONUS with
southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle on the eastern edge. If
this pattern holds, deep moisture from the Pacific will be funneled
into the forecast area right in between the eastern edge of the
trough and a ridge in the south central CONUS. However, due to
southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle being right in this
boundary, any subtle shift in the pattern will drastically change
impacts. If the trough shifts south and east, we will be cooler and
wetter. If the ridge shifts north and west, we will be warmer and
drier.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Some changes to the current aviation forecast, with HiRes model
guidance indicating showers and thunderstorms moving across the
CWA the afternoon and evening. Widely MVFR conditions expected,
with lowering ceilings and visibilities as convection pushes east
across KCYS and KLAR. Some chances for storms to lift to the
northeast into the Nebraska Panhandle and tracking across KBFF and
KCDR. However, confidence is lower for storms to pass directly
over those terminals with VCTS more likely. Low chances for fog
across the terminals tomorrow morning, but cannot fully rule out
at this time with light winds possible and plenty of moisture at
the surface. Into tomorrow, moderate to heavier rainfalls possible
with IFR conditions where stronger storms develop.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Minimal fire weather concerns over the next week as all areas have
seen wetting rains and fuels are very green. Widespread wetting
rains return Thursday as a low pressure system approaches from the
west. This slow moving low system will create widespread moderate
to heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. Flash Flood
Watches are in effect for much of southeast Wyoming and the entire
Nebraska Panhandle through Friday afternoon. Warmer and drier
weather expected this weekend into Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Another round of widespread rainfall expected to develop Thursday
afternoon as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
Latest guidance forecasting moderate rainfall accumulations. This
rain will fall on soils that are already saturated from previous
heavy rainfall from the past several weeks. A Flash Flood Watch is
in effect for much of the CWA Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
WYZ102-108-119.
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
WYZ101-103>107-110-114>118.
NE...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...LK
AVIATION...MRD
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
HYDROLOGY...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
637 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Key Messages:
-Warm Thursday with areas of smoke/haze possible, especially in
the northeast.
-Rain chances continue to delay with arrival now late Friday into
Saturday. Rain lingers into Sunday.
Upper level ridging kept flow light today for the state. A
descending cold front from the north is allowing elevated smoke to
reach the surface in states to the north. Recent HRRR near-surface
smoke guidance suggests that some of the smoke will approach the
surface tomorrow beginning in the northeast. Have added haze as a
possible weather type to reflect the arrival of this smoke and
trends will be monitored for impacts to ground visibility. The Iowa
DNR will continue to monitor changes in air quality. Have continued
to raise high temperatures above guidance for tomorrow after
previous highs have outperformed, but am only confident in a few
degrees difference due to the smoke partially blocking solar
radiation.
Precipitation chances continue to be delayed further into the
weekend. In collaboration with neighboring offices, precipitation
onset and evolution were delayed using newest guidance which now
places the bulk of precipitation for central Iowa late Saturday.
Discrepancies remain in the evolution of the trough, particularly
when and where the trough deepens and forms a cutoff low.
Regardless, rain chances are likely to linger into Sunday.
Confidence remains low in severe weather given poor wind profiles.
Ridging builds afterward, making for a dry start to next week
with recovering temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period with
light and variable winds overnight becoming out of the west to
northwest through the daytime hours Thursday. Although the diurnal
cumulus will slowly dissipate tonight, smoke aloft will continue
through the day Thursday keeping some higher ceilings in place.
Some near-surface smoke is possible near KMCW and/or KALO at
times on Thursday so kept with HZ mentions from previous TAFs,
though visibility impacts towards MVFR remain more uncertain and
will continue to be monitored with updates/amendments sent as
needed.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...KCM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1032 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Smoke is lingering, but there continues to be a general improving
trend in visibilities (northeast to southwest) which aligns well
with RAP near surface smoke concentrations/trends. Forecast
remains on track tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Primary impacts continue to be driven by wildfire some that
appears to be trapped over our CWA now that the main front has
stalled to our west-southwest. Easterly flow (rather than north-
northeast) has generally cut off the main sources for new smoke,
so the smoke currently in place is likely what we will have until
flow shifts again tomorrow. General trends in RAP/HRRR indicate
that this smoke will gradually dissipate overnight into Friday and
we are seeing improving trends upstream in our northeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Key Messages:
-Primary concern through the remainder of the
afternoon/evening/overnight will be wildfire smoke.
-Thunderstorm chances work into the Devils Lake Basin late
Thursday afternoon and evening.
Wildfire smoke continues to impact visibility this afternoon, with
many locations reporting between 2 and 5 mile visibility.
Temperatures are running slightly cooler, and are generally in the
80s, with near 90 degrees for the southern Red River Valley. For
this afternoon through most of Thursday, dry conditions are expected
to continue.
A slow moving front will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms into the area starting late Thursday afternoon, first
for the Devils Lake Basin, then areas further east. This will be
nearly stationary through Thursday night and into early Friday
morning, with QPF ranging from 0.50 inches to well over 1 inch. It
is worth noting that the activity associated with the front will be
convective, thus widespread higher QPF totals are not anticipated,
and will likely be limited to areas where convective activity is
persistent.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Key Messages:
-Pockets of heavy rain are possible for portions of the area
through mid-morning Friday, primarily the Devils Lake Basin.
-Showers and thunderstorms move through the area Friday, with a
few stronger storms possible.
-Ridging takes shape once more heading into early next week, with
temperatures expected to reach into the 90s.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms prevail Friday morning, with
pockets of heavy rain possible for the Devils Lake Basin through
around mid-morning. Thunderstorm activity pushes eastward through
the remainder of the day, with a few stronger storms possible.
Instability ahead of the front will be supportive of strong
updrafts; however, shear lags behind the front, thus giving us only
a narrow window of potential for severe thunderstorms. The 0-6km
shear is expected to be in the 35-45 knot range, with 0-3km shear
upwards of 20 to 25 knots.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms exists on Saturday,
with better chances being east of the Red River. Conditional chances
for strong storms remain in place, with conditions similar to what
we expect to see on Saturday. This activity gradually ends Saturday
night. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible once more on Sunday,
albeit with less forcing than in previous days.
Ridging brings hot and increasingly humid conditions into the area
heading into next week. There are signals for a more active pattern
toward the middle to end of next week; however, confidence is rather
low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Near surface wildfire smoke continues to result in visibility
reductions in the 3-6 mile range at most terminals in eastern ND
and northwest MN, with improving trends closer to the US/Canada
border. Bl easterly flow has pushed the main area of smoke to our
west where it stalled and cutoff the main source regions of new
smoke. The general trend should be towards VFR conditions
eventually prevailing based on our smoke model concentration
fields, but the exact timing is hard to say this
evening/overnight. Trends in obs and models do support the idea
that IFR should no longer be a threat due to smoke this evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
530 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Storms, possibly severe in nature, are expected Thursday and Friday
afternoon and evening.
Tonight will remain mostly clear as majority of the moisture in the
mid levels remains to the west and north of the Tri-State area.
There is a chance for some isolated showers near the Tri-State
border around 12Z Thursday, however they will be limited and
dissipate by the mid morning. This will be thanks to a 500 mb
shortwave.
Thursday afternoon will have storms firing around 18-21Z, most
guidance is on board with that. Where the uncertainty lies is where
exactly the storms will form and how intense they will be. The RAP
13 had the best handle of the 12Z conditions this morning, so it was
heavily relied upon for this forecast. Soundings are showing a
potentially high CAPE low shear environment. MU CAPE along the
central CO/KS border reaches over 2,500 J/Kg while 0-6 km shear
around 20 kts. Severe hail and winds will be possible with these
storms. There is the potential for an isolated tornado around the
Greeley and Wichita county area. CAMs have also been picking up on
two lines of storms entering the area, one from northeast Colorado
and another from east central Colorado. Lingering showers could last
until Friday morning , but majority of the severe storms will likely
occur between 1 and 8 PM MDT.
Friday will give us another chance of storms that could become
severe. This round will also stem from another 500 mb shortwave
impacting the area. As the RAP does not cover the time period that
the Friday storms will, the NAM 12 was the model of choice. The NAM
is showing a line of storms moving in from Colorado and heading
almost due east, barreling through the area. If the storms and
showers from the prior night, and the associated cloud cover, move
out of the area earlier in the morning, increased CAPE from daytime
heating is expected. From the NAM soundings, shear will not be
lacking. A forecast sounding taken in the far southern portions of
the CWA show 35+ kts of 0-6 shear. The NAM does seem slightly
aggressive with the clearing skies in the southern parts of the CWA,
which is likely artificially increasing MU CAPE to over 2,000 J/kg,
but this is possible. DCAPE of 1,000+ J/kg are also present. All
modes of severe weather will also be possible with the storms Friday
afternoon and evening.
High temperatures are expected to reach into the 80s Thursday ahead
of the storms with generally light winds. Thursday night will cool
off into the mid to upper 50s. Friday will be slightly cooler as the
clouds from the previous night will delay solar warming. Highs in
the mid 70s in Northeast Colorado to upper 80s near Hill City, KS
are expected. As mentioned before, if the clouds clear out faster
Friday morning, highs could climb even higher and the opposite is
also true. Lows Friday night look to drop into the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
At least a brief break in the active weather pattern is expected
through the middle of next week, although specifics remain uncertain
at this time. Final in a series of short wave troughs will sweep
across the area on Saturday bringing one last chance for showers and
thunderstorms, before ridge begins to amplify over the area through
the middle of next week. Despite some noticeable differences with
respect to growing ridge axis strength, medium range models do
point to a generally warm and dry conditions. While there will
remain a threat for an afternoon storm or two, definitely think
the period of more widespread rain will cease next week.
A bit more summer like temperatures are expected through the
middle of the week with upper 80s Sunday followed by low 90s
through the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Wed Jun 14 2023
VFR conditions continue at both terminals. Light and variable winds
will give way overnight to southwesterly winds around 5-10 knots
sustained with some gusts in the teens possible. Mid-level cloud
cover is expected to move over GLD around 08-10Z; over MCK around 14-
16Z.
Some showers are possible over the region in the morning, but lack
of confidence in location keeps them omitted from mention in TAFs at
present. Storms then are possible during the afternoon period and
similarly, uncertainty remains - however have included VCTS
beginning approximately 20Z for the terminals. Will update with
future TAF issuance as necessary.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Key Points:
* Diurnal storm chances this afternoon in SE KS.
* Better storm chances Thu night through early Fri. (Complex of
storms)
* Lingering storm chances into the weekend. Another storm complex
Sat night?
* Summer heat returns late this weekend into next week.
Remnant Meso induced vort center (MCV) from last nights weak
convective complex, continues to swirl and make slow progress over
the Flint Hills and SE KS this afternoon. Latest RAP shows an
uncapped environment, with a precipitable water axis of 130 percent
of normal over SE KS. With this area of higher moisture and weak
lift associated with the MCV, think isolated showers/storms are
possible for areas over the Flint Hills and SE KS for the late
afternoon into the early evening hours. The increased directional
shear and around a 1000 J/KG of instability may lead to a few pulse
strong storms until at least sunset. But expect most of the
afternoon convective chances to be diurnally driven, with a quiet
overnight expected.
Weak mid level ridging is expected to move quickly across the area
for late tonight through most of the daytime hours on Thu, with a
warming trend back towards climo normals for temperatures. Expect
high temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s.
Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar in showing a shortwave moving out
of the southern Rockies for Thu evening/night, which should lead to
convection developing across the High Plains and western KS for late
Thu afternoon or early Thu Evening given expected steep lapse rates
and moderate instability.
Models suggest that the high plains convection will grow upscale
into some sort of eastward propagating complex of storms (MCS) for
late Thu evening and Thu night, which will move east-southeast
across most of the forecast area. Effective shear is a little
better ahead of this system, around 30-40kts, as this MCS moves
across the area, with moderate instability expected to be in place,
which may lead to this MCS being strong to severe along its leading
edge late Thu evening. Latest Day 2 SPC outlook, shows a slight risk
with looks reasonable. The main concerns will be damaging wind gusts
of 60-70 mph, but cannot rule out some quarter size hail early in
its life cycle from embedded supercell structures. This MCS will
also lead to another round of heavy rainfall for areas across south
central KS, with some locations possibly seeing an additional 0.5 to
1 inch of rainfall by Fri morning.
Could see some lingering showers/storms over the Flint Hills and SE
KS on Fri morning, otherwise expect most of the daytime hours on Fri
to remain dry, as most of the area will be in a post MCS stable
airmass.
The unsettled weather pattern looks to continue for Fri night into
the weekend. Latest medium models suggest that another MCS may come
off of the High Plains for Fri night, and trek east-southeast
potentially into central and south central KS before diminishing.
There is also indications that another more significant MCS could
develop right over the forecast area across southern KS on Sat night
as well. The combination of effective shear/moderate instability
increases again with this system for a chance of strong to severe
storms.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Summer type heat looks to move into the area towards the end of the
weekend and into the beginning of next week, as the medium range
models suggests mid/upper ridging will build across the plains. Not
entirely sure that max temperatures will reach the triple digits,
given the recent rainfall, but mid to upper 90s look reasonable.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Quiet conditions are expected overnight into most of Thursday.
Winds will be rather light out of the southeast overnight, picking
up some by mid-late morning Thursday. Thunderstorm chances are
expected to increase toward Thursday evening, with the greatest
chances over western and southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Still some
uncertainty this far out, so only added PROB30 at ICT and HUT for
now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 61 89 64 86 / 0 0 50 20
Hutchinson 60 90 62 86 / 0 10 40 20
Newton 60 89 63 86 / 0 0 40 30
ElDorado 60 87 63 84 / 0 0 40 20
Winfield-KWLD 60 88 64 85 / 10 0 50 20
Russell 59 90 61 85 / 10 10 40 30
Great Bend 58 89 61 83 / 10 10 50 20
Salina 60 91 63 86 / 10 0 30 30
McPherson 59 89 62 85 / 0 0 40 20
Coffeyville 60 88 65 87 / 10 0 50 30
Chanute 60 88 66 86 / 10 0 40 30
Iola 60 87 65 85 / 10 0 30 30
Parsons-KPPF 60 88 65 86 / 10 0 40 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
742 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 427 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
A Tornado Watch has been issued for southeast Georgia, the
adjacent local waters, and Nassau county. Damaging winds and large
hail are also possible this evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Clusters of severe thunderstorms are currently moving westward
into southeast Georgia into a favorable environment for activity
to continue. These storms may organize well and will track across
southeast Georgia this evening, reaching the Atlantic coast just
before midnight.
Another wave of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into
interior southeast Georgia / Suwannee valley just after midnight.
The east southeasterly propagating squall line will be capable of
producing all hazards: damaging winds, large hail, heavy
rainfall, and possibility a few isolated tornadoes. The latest
HRRR run has shifted the strongest convection southward from
southeast Georgia into northeast Florida, but there is still
uncertainty with exact location of the squall line`s path.
With an overnight severe weather threat, residents of northeast
Florida and southeast Florida should have multiple ways to receive
warnings, including ways to wake them from a sound sleep.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Thursday... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be
moving southeasterly overnight into Thursday morning. These storms
will be capable of producing severe winds, large hail, and
possibly a tornado. North central Florida will likely be seeing
the worst of it predawn through a few hours after sunrise.
The forecast Thursday and will be very dependent on the mesoscale
features left behind from tonight`s convective activity and the
position of the residual front boundary. With significant heating
again, thunderstorm activity will be possible through the day
area- wide. Currently seeing afternoon forecast surface based CAPE
over 2,000 J/kg, DCAPE near 900 J/kg, effective bulk shear of
40-50 knots, and steep mid level lapse rates of 6.5-8.0 C/km. SPC
is highlighting our western counties under a `Slight` risk, with
the rest under a `Marginal` risk with all hazards possible, again
this forecast is dependent on the location of the residual front
boundary.
In addition to all the severe threats, heavy rainfall producing
localized flooding issues will be possible area- wide, as several
rounds of heavy thunderstorms will be impacting the area.
Currently, WPC has a `Slight` risk of excessive rainfall Thursday
over southeast Georgia.
Friday... Convection will linger overnight Thursday into Friday,
with numerous storms developing area-wide all day Friday again.
Westerly winds will continue, keeping the Atlantic sea breeze
pinned to the east coast.
Near-normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday, with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s and low temperatures near 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Daily rounds of diurnal thunderstorms are expected through this
period, with the highest PoPs being in the afternoon and evening
typically over northeast Florida. Hot, near-normal temperatures
will occur each day, with the highest heat indices reaching into
the lower 100s on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
A non uniform line of SHRA and TSRA has formed over southeast GA,
and extending east-northeastward to just to the northwest of SSI
as of 2330Z. This line will progress southeast through late
tonight with strong to severe level erratic winds, reduced
visibility, lowered ceilings, and heavy downpours possible at all
sites. The first to be impacted will be SSI from about 01 to 03Z,
then progressing southeast and clearing all sites by about 04 to
05Z. A second line of convection is expected into the morning
hours from northwest to southeast which will originate from MS and
AL overnight. There is more uncertainty with respect to the timing
of this second period of TSRA as this will highly depend on how
the area of TSRA evolves overnight. Have kept all sites as PROB30
for now given uncertainty, with gusty winds of 30kts or higher
once again possible with this secondary area. Diurnal convection
will be expected again Friday afternoon and evening as a frontal
boundary will be nearly stationary over the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
A stationary frontal boundary will remain positioned to the north
of our local waters over the next several days. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, this weather pattern will maintain west-
southwesterly winds through the upcoming weekend and into early
next week. Disturbances aloft moving across our region will
trigger thunderstorms each afternoon into evening, with a higher
chance of strong thunderstorms over the Georgia waters. Stronger
thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts,
hail, and waterspouts through Thursday. Evening wind surges will
bring speeds up towards Caution levels outside of thunderstorm
activity each evening, especially offshore.
Rip Currents: Low rip current risk Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 86 70 88 / 70 80 80 50
SSI 73 87 73 88 / 50 80 80 60
JAX 73 90 74 89 / 60 80 70 70
SGJ 74 91 74 91 / 60 70 60 70
GNV 74 89 74 90 / 60 70 60 70
OCF 75 90 76 90 / 40 60 40 70
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
809 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Just a couple of minor adjustments to the going forecast this
evening, primarily to increase sky cover somewhat to account for
wildfire smoke aloft, to shift the back door cold front an hour or
two earlier on Thursday, and to add haze mention mainly to
portions of the IL forecast area Thursday based on HRRR near-
surface smoke progs and upstream obs where low-level smoke has
been affecting surface visibility.
Weather conditions were fairly quiet across the forecast area
this evening, with light mainly easterly low level winds and
generally partly cloudy skies. Visible satellite imagery as well
as our out the window view does show considerable amount of
wildfire smoke aloft however, and upstream surface obs across
parts of western WI and central/southern MN indicating
visibilities in the 1-4 mile range indicative of smoke closer to
the ground. RAP/HRRR near surface smoke forecasts depict this
spreading southeast into northern IL by Thursday morning, which is
expected to result in hazy/smoky conditions at the surface for a
time. This low-level smoke is expected to be pushed out of the
region during the afternoon however, as a cold front currently
stretched across the upper Midwest accelerates south-southwestward
and allows breezy northeast winds to develop. Based on latest
high-res model runs, have moved the timing of the cold front up an
hour or two across the Chicago metro area into the late-
morning/midday period, and have also added areas of haze to our IL
counties (front largely prevents if from making it into IN) based
on the 18Z HRRR near-surface smoke progs. Have also bumped sky
cover grids through the period to account for higher-level smoke
as well.
With the slightly earlier frontal passage along the IL Lake
Michigan shore, will also move the start time to our Beach Hazard
2-3 hours earlier, due to expected building wave heights with the
breezy northeast winds behind the front.
Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape, with falling temps
across northeast IL and northwest IN behind the front Thursday,
along with a slight chance of a few stray showers/isolated
thunderstorms possible ahead of the front. No other changes needed
at this time.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Through Thursday night...
Low clouds remained hugged to the Lake Michigan shoreline Wednesday
morning, but have started to clear. Meanwhile, light fields of
cumulus clouds have bubbled up farther inland. There is a light
haze that is featured on satellite imagery, most likely still
some of the smoke from the Canadian wildfires moving over the
area. Luckily, the concentrations have been fairly light and
aloft offering little impacts to Chicagoland. Winds have been
generally light and onshore. Continued warming under the clearer
skies will raise temperatures inland into the low 80s, which is
fairly typical for mid-June. And yet, areas along the immediate
Lake Michigan shoreline, including parts of downtown Chicago will
be in the low 70s if not struggling to leave the upper 60s, which
is around 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Precipitation chances for Wednesday afternoon look fairly weak.
Limited levels of CAPE are present in the north-central portions
of Illinois, so under diurnal heating there is around a 15 to 20
percent chance that, this afternoon, a stray shower may pop up
leaving a trace to a couple hundredths. However, it will be mostly
focused on the interior portions of the CWA as the clouds over
the lake will shield the shoreline.
Wednesday`s clouds over the lake are on the far western tail of a
low pressure system centered around Western New York that continues
to move east. Ensemble models are in agreement with the higher-res
NAM alluding to a short wave trough at 500 mb developing and
extending westward from the center of the low over Lake Superior,
and dropping southward toward NW Indiana. At the surface, a stark
baroclinic zone along a cold front will likely develop and drop
southward. With the vorticity enhancement from the trough aloft and
the front adding a lifting mechanism, a renewed slight interest in
showers and the potential for thunder look to be in store for
Thursday afternoon. However, model dew points ahead of the front do
not look overly impressive in the upper 50s and low 60s, so the
probability for the rain was kept below a 25 percent chance with
the expectation of a mostly dry front with any precip that falls
being between a trace and a couple tenths of an inch. As dry
conditions persist with the worsening drought concerns, this
system does not look to be potent enough to break that.
The main impacts with this system will be from the winds and
temperatures. Winds will turn to the north Thursday morning and
increase, particularly over Lake Michigan, eventually turning
northeast and providing a lake enhanced breeze that can reach
farther inland Thursday afternoon. Timing will be watched
closely. For now projecting winds to start moving inland around
noon, but that can be adjusted if the front develops and moves
slower then guidance is currently anticipating. With northerly
fronts such as this that have plenty of fetch associated with it,
the strong winds will likely produce fresh swell generating
conditions on the lake that will be hazardous for smaller vessels.
Additionally, dangerous swimming conditions will be present with
a heightened risk for rip currents on Thursday evening and into
Friday morning.
The speed of the front will also determine how well the temperature
forecast verifies. Inland high temperatures are forecast to be in
the mid to upper 80s, while temperatures behind the front will
struggle to climb out of the low 70s. For now, confidence remains
such that the southern part of the CWA should still reach the 80s
despite the afternoon forecast package nudging the deterministic
numbers down lightly. The northern part of the CWA, including the
lake shoreline will likely remain below normal in the 70s and 60s,
respectively.
DK
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Thursday night through Tuesday...
We head into the weekend with a longwave trough and surface low over
the eastern Great Lakes, a broad upper and surface ridge across the
western Great Lakes and northern CONUS, and split flow westerlies in
a weaker southern stream ridge. The eastward progression of the
northern ridge should keep the local area dry through the first part
of the weekend. Blended guidance was trending wetter for most of
the extended, but after coordination with the neighbors we nudged
toward a drier solution into early Sunday.
By Sunday into Monday a low pressure disturbance in the southern
stream works its way toward the area. The latest deterministic GFS
and ECMWF show it skirting southwest of our CWA with a limited
precip shield, so the downward coordination of POP values also
continued into early next week. Eventually the blended guidance will
catch up, or else we may need to trend POPs higher again as the time
gets closer, especially if the low track shifts a bit farther north.
Temperatures will remain within seasonable ranges for mid June, with
lakeside cooling for most of the period due to onshore flow,
especially on the Illinois side.
Lenning
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
VFR conditions are expected through tonight as E winds 10 knots
or less gradually veer SW through sunrise. Winds will continue to
veer NNW through mid morning before a backdoor cold front abruptly
shifts winds NE with gusts to 20 knots late morning.
Wildfire smoke upstream will drift southward tonight, bringing
low- end VFR to MVFR visibility ahead of the cold front during the
morning. However, low-end MVFR visibility may persist at RFD well
into the afternoon. Otherwise, a brief period of MVFR ceilings is
possible Thursday afternoon behind the front.
Kluber
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Beach Hazards Statement...ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104...noon Thursday
to 10 AM Friday.
IN...Beach Hazards Statement...INZ001-INZ002...noon Thursday to 10 AM
Friday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...noon Thursday to 4 AM Friday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Very unsettled weather continued from the overnight hours into the
morning hours across much of Arkansas. A few thunderstorms across
the state brought areas of strong winds, torrential rain, and large
hail. A brief lull in the action was seen during midday. 18z balloon
combined with the HRRR does suggest severe weather will be possible
again this afternoon and evening despite the overnight/morning
convection. The 18z balloon does show the atmosphere has recovered
nicely with nearly 4000 J/kg of cape. The first round forecast for
this afternoon is expected across southern portions of the
state...generally the southern third. A second round will be
possible across more of central Arkansas after 00z...however recent
versions of the HRRR have become a little less bullish on the extent
of this development compared to runs earlier in the day.
Through the remainder of the short term, the nearly stationary front
that is in place over southern Arkansas will continue to meander
around the area. Current thinking has the front pushing south on
Thursday before stalling south of the Louisiana border. This may
bring Arkansas a brief break from precipitation chances on Thursday
during the daytime hours. However with NW flow aloft over the
region, the period of dry weather will be short lived as another
round of disturbances moves through the state late Thursday
night/early Friday morning. Severe weather chances will once again
be in the forecast with the main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
To begin the period, a frontal boundary will remained stalled across
the state Friday night into early Saturday bringing the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. As we move into Saturday night
and Sunday, another cold front is expected to move into the state
increasing the chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Severe weather chances will remain isolated with gusty winds and
hail the main hazards.
In regards to QPF amounts...it really just depends where storms
develop. However, through the period, QPF amounts up to inch will be
possible...although higher amounts will be for areas who see
multiple rounds of heavy rain. Many locations may only see up to
half and inch through the period. The heaviest and more widespread
rainfall is expected Saturday night into Sunday associated with a
stronger system moving into the area.
Warm temperatures and higher heat index values are expected through
the long term as the humidity returns to the state. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat
index values in the mid 90s to near 105 degrees possible. The
highest heat index values will be across portions of southern
Arkansas. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the mid
60s to mid 70s through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Continued unsettled weather is in the forecast over the next 24
hours with showers and thunderstorms forecast to remain in the
forecast through at least this evening. Overnight some patchy fog
will be possible, with better chances across the northern
terminals. After 14z on Thursday VFR conditions should return to
all terminals through the end of the TAF forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 64 88 67 88 / 40 10 10 30
Camden AR 66 89 68 86 / 60 10 40 50
Harrison AR 61 86 65 86 / 30 10 20 40
Hot Springs AR 66 91 68 87 / 50 10 40 50
Little Rock AR 69 90 71 90 / 50 10 30 50
Monticello AR 69 90 71 88 / 60 10 40 50
Mount Ida AR 64 90 65 87 / 50 10 40 50
Mountain Home AR 62 86 65 87 / 20 10 10 30
Newport AR 66 87 69 89 / 40 20 10 30
Pine Bluff AR 67 88 70 86 / 60 10 40 50
Russellville AR 65 89 68 87 / 50 10 30 50
Searcy AR 66 88 68 88 / 60 10 20 40
Stuttgart AR 69 88 71 87 / 60 10 30 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....233
AVIATION...65
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1003 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
A series of short-waves will move across the area overnight into
Thursday. SPC meso-analysis shows two main areas of moisture
convergence. One across southeast Tennessee and another over
southwest Virginia. MLCAPES currently 500-1000 so plenty of
instability for isolated to widely scattered showers and
thundestorms. Instability will continue to diminish due to loss of
daytime heating so expect storms to slowly dissipate.
Due to areas of clear sky, calm wind, and recent rains south and
north, some fog development is anticipated through Thursday
morning.
Current forecast lows look good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly south of Interstate 40
this evening.
2. Mostly dry Thursday, cannot rule out a diurnal thunderstorm.
Discussion:
Currently, an upper level low is situated over the Northeast and
will slowly move along the East Coast. GOES visible imagery shows
dense cloud cover over the southern Plateau and valley, and radar
has rain showers moving across the southern valley and new
showers coming out of the Plateau into East Tennessee. Water vapor
matches well with guidance, as a couple of small shortwaves are
moving through the subtropical jet. This evening is a low
confidence forecast. The HRRR today came up with a novel idea to
drag showers and thunderstorms along a boundary through the
central valley this evening until midnight. The hourly runs have
been pretty persistent all day showing this in various forms. The
only issue is none of the other CAM guidance has this. Should
storms form, soundings do indicate enough CAPE for thunder.
Otherwise the Virginia counties might see a band of showers move
through late this evening associated with the upper trough axis
pivoting through.
Once storms and heavy cloud cover dissipate tonight, could see
some patchy fog across most of the valley and drainages late
overnight. The upper level system in the Northeast will begin to
move offshore and high pressure will begin to build across the
region. As such, drier conditions are expected for Thursday with
temperatures climbing into the lower 80s. Diurnal heating will
contribute to a slim chance of isolated showers and storms during
the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Key Messages:
1. Mostly dry Thursday evening through Saturday, but cannot rule
out the occasional shower/storm, especially in the northern part
of the forecast area with the passage of a weak cold front.
2. Increasing chances of an unsettled wet and stormy pattern late
weekend into next week.
3. Temperatures will hold steady around seasonal norms, give or take
a couple of degrees through the long term period.
Discussion:
Before the next frontal system, the area will be under weak high
pressure, so chances of showers and storms will be minimal to start
the period from late Thursday through Saturday. Although, an upper
level low cycling down from Canada will send a weak cold front
across our area from the north Friday evening, bringing a quick
chance of showers and storms, mostly to the northern part of our
forecast area.
The front will sag to our south and ridging will try to push in
behind it, providing us a mostly dry Saturday. Following that,
things become active beginning on Sunday as a low center develops
over the Central Plains, tracking eastward under a rather potent
shortwave trough. This feature or disturbance will become the focus
of the rest of the period as it becomes closed off and moves
southeastward. Models in general agree on this happening, as well as
it eventually becoming phased with the trough that`s been hanging
over the northeast. What this means is daily chances of showers and
storms, with pretty decent wetting rains forecast so far. Good news
for parched areas of east Tennessee. As far as the strong to severe
storm threat, will continue to monitor this as we get closer.
Behind this, pattern wise, highly amplified ridging over the Central
US and troughing over the west will strengthen and deepen,
respectively.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Main concern through the TAF period is potential and timing of
storms. Besides ongoing TSRA at TYS, greatest chance of storms
Thursday will be across CHA and TRI due to proximity of short-
waves in west/northwest flow aloft.
Due to rain at CHA and TYS, there is a greater chance of fog
and low-cloud development overnight/early Thursday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 84 65 89 / 40 40 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 64 87 / 40 20 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 60 84 62 87 / 30 20 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 81 59 82 / 20 30 10 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...DH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
910 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances in broadly cyclonic flow aloft will
interact with a frontal zone that will waver over the Southeast
through Thursday. Drier and more stable air will reside to the north
of that front, courtesy of weak high pressure that will extend from
the mid MS Valley to the srn and cntl Appalachians and an
Appalachian-lee trough across the southern middle Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Wednesday...
Tonight appears to be a battle of increasing near surface and MLCape
from the southwest with developing CINH with loss of heating for
shower and isolated thunderstorm development. The approach of
upstream perturbations in the westerly flow aloft have led to the
development of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
Southern Piedmont and Sandhills, along the northern edge the
moisture/instability gradient as it advances NE. Shear remains
unseasonably strong and the latest HRRR and other CAMS simulations
of reflectivity keep generally the same areas from the
Sandhills/Eastern Piedmont into the Coastal Plain with a chance to
likely POP through 200-400 AM, or so. We will undercut POP by about
a quarter given the relatively weak returns on radar thus far (as of
910 PM). Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are expected with a warmer
and more humid night with lows in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Wednesday...
The closed mid/upper low currently over the Northeast US will move
into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday and Thursday night. However,
another shortwave trough will move SE across the Great Lakes region,
which will help to reinforce the broad mid/upper troughing and
cyclonic flow across the Eastern US. At the surface, a weak lee
trough will be in place, as the boundary to our south today lifts
north into central NC tonight and tomorrow but somewhat washes out.
As it does so, dew points will increase to the lower-to-mid-60s
areawide tonight through tomorrow, and this along with daytime
heating will help SBCAPE reach as high as 1000-1500 J/kg. However,
mid-level lapse rates look unimpressive (6-7 degrees C/km). There
will also be a lack of upper forcing compared to today, as any
vigorous shortwave impulses look to stay suppressed to our south and
mid-level heights slightly rise through the period. The CAMS
continue to show only spotty convection. So continue low chance POPs
tomorrow afternoon across much of the region outside of the far NE,
with no one area particularly favored, and convection should quickly
diminish after dark. Given the weak mid-level flow compared to today
(20-30 kts), any storms would be of the pulse variety and no severe
threat is expected. SW winds at the surface will also be weaker,
with gusts peaking in the 12-17 mph range. Low-level thicknesses
look pretty similar to today, so expect similar high temperatures
ranging from lower-80s in the far north to mid-to-upper-80s
elsewhere. Low-level thicknesses Thursday night look slightly higher
than tonight, but with less cloud cover expected, lows should be
fairly similar or maybe a touch cooler, mostly lower-to-mid-60s.
These temperatures are near normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday...
A compact shortwave will dive out of Ontario Fri morning before
closing off over the Northeast by Sat morning. Upper forcing and
related 20-30m H5 height falls may clip the northern periphery of
the CWA Fri afternoon/evening, but the better large scale ascent
will be well to the north of the area. At the surface, low pressure
over the Northeast will deepen in response to the approaching
shortwave with weak high pressure beginning to filter in from
Ontario with lead to a cold fropa late Fri and suppressing the deep
layer moisture axis south and east directing PWAT values < 1 inch
into the area by Sat morning. Ahead of the cold front, a pre-frontal
trough should develop Friday afternoon over NC Piedmont and slowly
sag southeast while heading into the evening hours. Low-level
convergence in conjunction with glancing influence from the upper
trough may allow for the development of showers, best chance north
and east of Raleigh, where these forcing features overlap. However,
the big question will be the northward retreat of low-level moisture
and resultant degree of instability that will be realized during the
afternoon. The GFS develops the pre-frontal trough farther east
compared to the NAM and thus pins the low/mid 60s dewpoints to the
Coastal Plain and locations south and east. EBWD of 30-40 kts,
counter-clockwise curved hodographs (favoring left-moving storms),
and deeply mixed boundary layers may favor a conditional isolated
hail and wind threat, largely dependent on the northward retreat of
surface-based instability.
On Sun, the parent low will lift northeast and shift its area of
influence away from our area as a shortwave emerges from the central
Plains into the southern OH Valley by Mon. The 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF
are in line with their respective ensemble guidance which show this
feature lingering over the southern Appalachians and a Rex blocking
configuration developing into Wed. However, cluster analysis from
the grand ensemble (combination of all members from GEFS, EPS, CMCE)
does highlight a fairly uncertain upper level pattern beyond Mon,
leading to low confidence forecast to start the work-week.
Temperatures will remain near normal to slightly above-normal for
mid June through the weekend leading to afternoon highs in the
mid/upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. Increasing
cloud cover and rain chances from the approaching trough will temper
highs into the 70s, although if widespread rain/cloud cover does
indeed look likely for the beginning of next week, then highs will
likely be lowered.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 750 PM Wednesday...
Primarily VFR conditions will continue tonight. However, there is a
chance of MVFR conditions with isolated showers and storms focused
in the vicinity of US 64 this evening. There is also a chance of
MVFR to IFR CIGS later tonight in the SE, especially east and south
of Fayetteville and Rocky Mount where low level moisture is higher.
Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected with the exception of
widely scattered, mainly diurnal showers/storms will be possible
both Thu and Fri afternoons.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett/MWS
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
The CWA is mostly clear of convection at this hour, except for a
couple of isolated showers/thunderstorms in Nevada and Hempstead
Counties in SW Arkansas. Collaborating with SPC, decided to get
rid of all watches this evening. However, can`t rule out an
additional strong to severe storm overnight, as models suggest
more redevelopment north of the I-20 corridor. This convection
could spread just south of the I-20 overnight, with short-term
progs diminishing this activity near daybreak. But, with recent
trends, wouldn`t be surprise if this activity holds together, if
it does develop. Otherwise, expect overnight lows to fall into the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with some patchy fog near sunrise. /20/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
By the 00Z hour, strong to severe thunderstorms will still be in
progress across the ArkLaTex. Short term model guidance remains
somewhat split on precise intensity and coverage, with the HRRR
indicating continued generation of potentially quite potent
supercells developing along a line oriented roughly along US 82 from
northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. This line looks to push
east during the evening, followed by new supercell development over
northeast Texas, which will push into northwest Louisiana overnight.
The 3km NAM, by contrast, suggests a weaker line in the
aforementioned position, with the more potent convection pushing
deeper into Louisiana earlier in the evening. RAP13 QPF values
indicate a similar timing progression to the HRRR, with convection
in east Texas and northwest Louisiana continuing well into the post-
midnight hours.
Details on the position of the boundary notwithstanding, the severe
threat persists areawide through the evening and overnight hours,
until the convective system clears our area entirely in the small
hours of tomorrow morning. A broad area of high CAPE will remain
present across the majority of the ArkLaTex, concurrent with limited
to no capping and low LCL heights of only a few hundred meters. A
broad area of bulk shear in the neighborhood of 50 kts will still be
present areawide, with higher values developing across our eastern
zones into the evening.
Thus, as convection continues, the primary impact of concern will
remain very large hail, greater than 2 inches in diameter. A
pronounced wind threat will also continue to exist, particularly
across our eastern zones and into northeast Louisiana. Finally, the
tornado threat cannot be ruled out altogether, particularly in
combination with the increased shear values as the storms advance
eastward.
By sunrise Thursday morning, any remaining chances of lingering
convection will be limited to north central to northeast Louisiana,
retreating south and east into the early afternoon. After 00Z
Friday, a fresh chance of showers and storms will begin to affect
the majority of the ArkLaTex, with higher chances north, induced by
a small shortwave feature riding along an upper level ridge over
central Texas. These showers and storms will retreat somewhat north
and east through the night, primarily impacting zones along and
north of the I-20 corridor as Friday morning approaches. Some of
these storms may be severe, especially along and north of the I-30
corridor, included in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather,
with the remainder of the region included in a Marginal Risk (Level
1/5). The primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds.
Overnight tonight, temperatures will remain fairly mild under the
cloud deck of the storm complex impacting the ArkLaTex, with lows
ranging from the upper 60s north to middle 70s south. In between
systems, skies will have a brief chance to clear tomorrow afternoon,
allowing highs to soar back into the 90s areawide, ranging from the
lower 90s north to mid to higher 90s south, followed by another mild
night of upper 60s north to mid 70s south.
/26/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
An upper ridge building over Northern Mexico and the U.S. Southern
Plains result in a fairly strong northwesterly flow aloft. As is
typical this time of year, weak shortwaves embedded in the flow will
likely result in convection over the Plains. The storms will
eventually congeal into a MCS and dive southeast into Southeast
Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana. The severe
weather potential with these complexes are very difficult to
forecast. Usually, the storms are weakening as they move into our
CWA due to a lack of instability and decreasing large scale forcing.
Redevelopment will be possible during the daytime hours with the
combination of diurnal instability and focusing along remnant
outflow boundaries. This will likely be the case Friday and Saturday.
Convection will likely evolve in a similar manner during the day
Sunday and into Sunday evening. However, convection could be more
robust and better organized. The upper trough axis will move east of
the area while a strong shortwave trough moves east across Kansas
towards Missouri resulting in stronger westerly flow and large scale
forcing. The highest rain chances will continue to remain mainly
across the northeast half of the forecast area, generally northeast
of a line from Jena LA to DeQueen AR. Rain chances will decrease
significantly after Sunday.
As wetting rains become more scarce, daytime temperatures will climb
upward. Our northern zones should remain the coolest given the
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, the
temperature outlook for locations along and south of Interstate 20
look rather bleak, unless you like hot weather. Daytime highs will
likely be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees F by Sunday and
Monday. Many locations will likely be experiencing their first 100
degree days of 2023 within the next 7 days. The NBM is very
aggressive with the rate of daily warming, but I trended to hottest
temperatures a degree or two cooler given the recent rainfall.
However, with abundant sunshine and high sun angles, it is quite
easy for soils to dry very quickly, and the lack of soil moisture
will allow air temperatures to soar. Unfortunately, we`ll have to
deal with high humidity, which will likely result in high peak heat
index values. Heat headlines will likely become our biggest impacts
by next weekend.
CN
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 948 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Generally VFR conditions across the region, except at
KTXK/KTYR/KGGG, as low cigs and vsbys have reduced flight
conditions to MVFR. Radar is clear of convection, but models hint
and more convection developing near midnight around the I-20
corridor. This convection is forecasted to diminish by sunrise,
with patchy fog possible. Forecast remains dry on tomorrow, but
can`t rule out more convection on tomorrow afternoon. /20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 94 74 95 / 30 20 30 20
MLU 72 92 73 91 / 40 40 30 40
DEQ 68 91 68 88 / 30 10 50 30
TXK 71 94 71 91 / 40 10 40 30
ELD 68 91 68 89 / 60 20 40 40
TYR 74 96 74 97 / 40 10 20 10
GGG 72 94 73 95 / 40 10 30 10
LFK 76 97 75 99 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
754 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Dry conditions currently across the area. An MCS is currently
racing southeastward across SE AL, SW GA and the Florida
Panhandle. This MCS will begin to weaken and continue to move
quickly southeast during the overnight hours. Latest models bring
showers and storms into northern portions of the forecast area
around midnight. Due to this, brought the timing of precipitation
up a bit with the latest HRRR being a bit quicker with the
precipitation. The main shortwave trough will be lifting out to
the northeast overnight and instability will be waining with the
loss of daytime heating. However, the storm intensity may stay up
enough as storms move into Levy county to have a damaging wind
gusts or two. Will monitor conditions and storm severity
throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. Overall, not
concerned too much further south with the storms being too far
displaced from the shortwave trough and best dynamic support.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle. Model
guidance does bring in the chance for some scattered MVFR ceilings
around daybreak but do not have enough confidence to include in
the TAFs at this time. Additionally, there could be a few showers
move in from the north around daybreak as a decaying MCS moves in.
However, models depict isolated to scattered coverage at best by
this point and will continue with a dry forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
West to southwest flow will continue through the weekend.
Drier air will remain over the area for the rest of the week which
will limit shower activity. However, moisture will increase by the
weekend due to upper level troughing. This will result in scattered
showers and storms mainly overnight and early morning hours as the
storms form in the Gulf and work there way inland. Main boating
hazards through the weekend will be these morning showers and storms
on Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Ridging over the area has produced drier conditions aloft
reducing rain shower chances. However, humidity is still high at the
surface keeping RHs well above critical levels. Troughing pushes
over the area this weekend will result in moisture returning aloft
producing scattered showers and storms over the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 92 81 92 / 20 30 20 40
FMY 80 94 81 94 / 10 20 10 30
GIF 76 95 76 94 / 20 30 20 40
SRQ 79 92 79 92 / 10 20 10 30
BKV 75 93 75 92 / 30 40 30 50
SPG 82 89 82 89 / 10 30 20 40
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
651 PM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible
through Friday for areas generally north of Interstate 40.
Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday with skies
mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the south and partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy in the central and northern areas. Warmer, near
normal temperatures are expected over the weekend with increasing
winds on Sunday. Dry, cooler weather and gusty winds are forecast
for early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed this
afternoon as expected in response to cyclonic flow aloft under an
elongated trough. THe most widespread thunderstorm activity through
the afternoon was through the Southern Great Basin area which is
where PWATs of 0.75-0.9in and modest instability had developed.
Rainfall amounts up to 0.25in and gusty winds to around 30 MPH were
reported with these storms. Further south, storms were more isolated
as instability was lacking and forcing was weaker. Precipitation
amounts in southern Nevada and eastern California were less than 0.1
inches, though winds were a bit hotter as drier air at the surface
allowed for outflow winds around 40 MPH. In the past hour, as
diurnal heating started to wane, precipitation also started to wane.
The exception was in northern Inyo County where a secondary piece of
energy allowed for an uptick in thunderstorm activity.
Expecting precipitation to continue to diminish through the evening
and early overnight. The HRRR has showers and thunderstorms
lingering the longest in Inyo COunty where current storms will push
south through around midnight. Then it should dry out for the
overnight hours. Storms in Inyo County may contain lightning, brief
heavy rain, and sudden gusty winds to 30 MPH. Substantial clod cover
will linger overnight which will keep low temperatures tonight
warmer than last night.
-Nickerson-
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...148 PM PDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Friday.
A low pressure trough over the Southern Great Basin and Mojave
Desert will keep temperatures below normal for the next couple of
days. Winds are forecast to be generally light due to the
broadness of the trough and lack of a strong surface pressure
gradient. The mean trough consists of two primary low pressure
systems - one currently north of our area over Idaho/Montana and
the other well off the southern California coast. Tonight and
Thursday, the system to our north drops southward and the system
to our southwest, approaches the SoCal coast. Thunderstorm
coverage will continue over our northern areas on Thursday but in
addition, expand southward in the afternoon to include Death
Valley, Clark County and northern Mohave County. On Friday, the
two systems are forecast to combine keeping thunderstorm chances
in play for much of Lincoln, Clark, NE San Bernardino, and
northern Mohave counties. Anomalously high moisture content is
mainly in the mid-levels so precipitation amounts in the lower
elevations will be generally light. This makes flash flooding
less of a concern with strong winds and dangerous lightning the
primary concerns.
Saturday and Sunday...
Over the weekend, weak ridging to zonal flow on Saturday
transitions to deep layer southwest flow across the region on
Sunday. Both of these days are expected to be the warmest of the
next 7 days as highs approach normal for the first time since
early June. Normal highs are 100 degrees in Las Vegas this
weekend. Little change to the forecast high temperatures in Las
Vegas over the weekend with highs forecast to be in the upper
90s at Harry Reid. The latest probability data gives roughly a 15
percent chance of the temperature reaching 100 degrees at the
airport either day. Weak ridging and generally light winds are
forecast for Saturday with an increasing southwest flow aloft
bringing gusty southwest winds 30-40 mph to the area on Sunday. If
the century mark is not breached on Saturday, Sunday could be an
even better candidate.
Monday through Wednesday...
Low pressure troughing overspreads the southwestern states early
next week - dropping temperatures back to the lower 90s on Monday
and the upper 80s on Tuesday in Las Vegas. In general, temps are
forecast to be 10 or more degrees below normal areawide on
Tuesday as the trough axis passes over the western states.
Temperatures are forecast to recover several degrees on Day 7
Wednesday as the trough axis shifts east and the longwave
troughing pattern weakens.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southeast wind components 6-9 knots
may give way to outflow from showers from the west or northwest late
this afternoon and early evening. Showers will diminish and winds
will become light late this evening through the overnight hours and
Thursday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
around the Las Vegas Valley Thursday afternoon will bring the
potential for gusty and erratic winds during the late afternoon and
early evening...especially from the northeast or east.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A weak trough will remain over Inyo County and southern
Nevada through Thursday bringing isolated to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours with
gusty and erratic winds possible for most TAF sites except the lower
Colorado River Valley from KIFP southward.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Salmen
AVIATION...Adair
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