Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/14/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Another dry and quiet short term period is in store for us.
Currently, we are seeing hazy, milky, skies with the elevated smoke
moving down from Canada. Temperatures are in the mid to high 80s
with winds out of the north to northwest at about 10 mph. Expect
smokey skies to continue through the short term period. HRRR smoke
also has a plume of near surface smoke heading toward our area for
Wednesday. The highest concentration looks to be over the eastern
half of the CWA. Added some areas of haze moving northeast to
southwest across the area tomorrow. Late Wednesday night, a front
starts to move into the area from the west bringing a chance of
showers and storms to our far western areas. Temperatures Wednesday
will be in the mid 80s and possibly reaching 90 in some areas. Gusts
Wednesday afternoon could reach 25 mph west river, otherwise light
easterly winds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Overall, for the vast majority of the long term, the deterministic
models are in fair agreement. A split-flow, semi progressive mid
level pattern is expected across the forecast area. As a system
aloft lifts from the Northern Rockies and into SC Canada, an
associated cold front will slide east over the Dakotas
Thursday/Friday and into Minnesota on Saturday. Ahead of the system
there`ll be an increase in moisture/instability, but MLCAPEs should
stay mostly below 1k j/kg. With deep layer shear remaining rather
weak, severe opportunities look low. Rain chances do however look
pretty decent, with 24hr probs of a quarter inch or more pegging 50
percent over the region. After the weekend, conditions will likely
turn dry again for a few days as a stout looking H7 thermal ridge
advects north across much of the Dakotas, with temps of 10-13C over
the region. This should lead to a period of capping over the region.
Temps late this week and into the weekend will favor near normal,
but come next week expect rising temperatures under that mid level
dome of warm air.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Wednesday. Elevated smoke will remain over the area
through the TAF period.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1026 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers this afternoon and evening in central and
north-central Wisconsin.
- Another round of scattered showers in central and north-central
Wisconsin from Wednesday afternoon into evening
- Additional showers and scattered storms from Friday into early
next week.
This afternoon and evening...
A shortwave trough will rotate south across Wisconsin this
afternoon and evening. This system will produce showers across
central and north-central Wisconsin. Additional rainfall will
be up to a half inch.
Wednesday afternoon and night...
A backdoor cold front will move southwest and south across the
area. There should be even convergence and moisture transport into
central and north-central Wisconsin to generate isolated to
scattered showers and maybe a few storms. Rainfall amounts will be
generally less than a tenth of an inch.
The HRRR continues to show that the vertically integrated smoke
will be increasing across the area during the day. The
concentrations will be the highest during the afternoon and
evening. Much of this smoke will be elevated.
Friday through early next week...
The models continue to show that the upper level ridge will break
down and a closed low will then move through the region during the
weekend. The upper level ridge will then reestablish itself north
and northwest of the area early next week. While the models are in
general agreement, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on the
track of the upper level low and its speed. Also on how close it
will be to the area for early next week. As a result, there is
uncertainty with the timing of precipitation. CAPE values are
generally less than 1K J/kg and the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear remain
weak, so not expecting any organized severe weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
VFR conditions are expected with mid/high clouds gradually
diminishing overnight. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will move
across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, but impacts to
surface visibility are uncertain, so maintained VFR conditions.
There is a small (~10%) chance for a shower/storm late Wednesday
afternoon/early evening, but confidence in any impacts to TAF
sites is low.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1027 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Isolated thunderstorm activity has ended across the north. The
rest of the night looks to be dry with lows generally in the 50s.
Areas of surface smoke from wildfires in Canada are starting to
enter the northeastern part of the state. This surface smoke could
enter into north central North Dakota tonight, while smoke aloft
looks to be found across much of the area. The 00z HRRR surface smoke
forecast run has come in with slightly less surface smoke during
the day on Wednesday, yet maintains smoke Wednesday night in the
east and some central portions. Have made some slight adjustments
as a result, yet smoke may still be found in eastern portions
during the day Wednesday.
UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Minimal updates needed so far this evening. Isolated thunderstorms
continue along a weak boundary across the north. There is a pocket
of weak instability along this boundary, however there is very
limited shear in the atmosphere. Thus heavy rain, gusty winds, and
perhaps some mall hail will be the main threat with these storms.
Severe weather is not expected at this time. Smoke continues to be
found aloft. CIMSS Natural Color RGB showing the surface smoke
still in Canada at this time. 18z HRRR near surface forecast still
showing the potential to enter into eastern areas Wednesday
through Wednesday night. Decided to add in some mention of smoke
during this time period to cover this potential increase in smoke.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
At the upper levels, a ridge axis is currently located over
eastern Montana and a closed low is centered over Michigan. Dry
air associated with the ridge will keep the area mild and mostly
precipitation free through the short term forecast period. The one
exception may be across portions of the north later this
afternoon and into the early evening when a weak backdoor cool
front dips into the northeast and north central. Here, we could
see an isolated thunderstorm or two in the vicinity of the front
before sunset. RAP trends suggest that MLCAPE here will top out in
the 250 to 1000 J/kg range with little to no shear. Thus, severe
weather is not much of a concern and convection will be very hit
and miss.
Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires will continue to cover the
region and may keep high temperatures a bit cooler than originally
thought (but still above normal). Tonight`s lows will generally be
in the 50s.
Wednesday will be similar to today: mainly dry and possibly a
touch warmer depending on how the smoke forecast evolves. The
ridge axis will cross the state overnight and tomorrow, promoting
another day with highs in the 80s. Normally, we would probably see
some lower 90s in this pattern, but more smoke aloft will likely
keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. The RAP and HRRR smoke
models also suggest that we could see a return of some near
surface smoke late tonight through Wednesday, especially across
the eastern half of the state. For now, we only have some higher
sky cover in the forecast to account for hazy skies, but we may
need to end up putting some smoke in the gridded forecast for
tomorrow at some point if we see surface visibilities starting to
drop.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
As the upper ridge axis continues to move east, we transition to
southwest flow aloft across most of western and central North
Dakota by Wednesday night. A leading wave and associated frontal
system will move from eastern Montana into the far west
overnight, bringing with it chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Chances for showers and storms will then spread into the central
part of the state through the day on Thursday as the front moves
across. Much of the central will see MLCAPE values in the 1500 to
2500 J/kg range by the afternoon hours, but the best shear will
lag behind the front to the west. Colorado State University (CSU)
Machine-Learning Probabilities do have a weak signal for some
marginally severe hail across the south central on Thursday
afternoon, but widespread severe weather is not expected.
Precipitation chances will then move off into the east Thursday
night, diminishing through the day on Friday.
With the front coming through, there will be a wider temperature
range across the state on Thursday with highs ranging from the
mid 70s west to the lower 90s over the southern James River Valley
near the South Dakota border. Highs on Friday will mainly be in
the 70s with a few lower 80s across the James River Valley. Lows
Thursday and Friday night will mainly be in the 50s but some upper
40s will be possible southwest.
Low amplitude ridging builds back in late Friday into Saturday,
promoting another warm up through the weekend with mainly dry
conditions. However, we move back into persistent southwest flow
aloft towards the end of the weekend as the next longwave trough
digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will mean increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms again late Sunday and into the
beginning of the work week. While, it is still way too far out for
specific details, CSU Machine-Learning Probabilities are starting
to pick up on at least small severe weather chances across
western and central North Dakota Monday and Tuesday. A quick
glance at the global ensembles and deterministic models does seem
to confirm this as we may see some better instability/shear
overlap than we have in the season thus far.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. An
isolated thunderstorm may be found across the north this evening,
although confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this
time. VFR conditions look to continue tomorrow. Some showers and
thunderstorms may then develop across the west tomorrow afternoon
and evening. Smoke will remain aloft across much of the area
during the forecast period. It may mix down to the surface
tomorrow through tomorrow evening, especially in the east. At this
time, confidence was only high enough to include smoke in the
KJMS TAF.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...Anglin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and fog move back in overnight for the eastern half
of the region, while western areas could clear out. fog and low
clouds clear early tomorrow morning giving away to mostly sunny
skies. Thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, some of which
may be severe. Our weather pattern then turns more unsettled for
late in the week through the weekend with scattered showers and
thundershowers during the daytime hours, with somewhat more
coverage Friday and Saturday afternoons. However neither day is
a washout. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with a
tendency for cooler than normal weather for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM update...
Low clouds continue to move into northeast MA with clear to
partly clear skies further west. No significant changes to the
forecast.
Previous Discussion...
With just enough instability, a couple heavier showers and
thundershowers developed along a convergence zone between west
flow across interior MA and an advancing sea-breeze/onshore flow
seen well on composite radar mosaic imagery draped from about
Ashburnham MA SSE through the Foxboro/Norwood vicinity. These
are pretty low topped and won`t pose a risk to develop further
or produce any worse weather other than brief downpours, these
showers coming to an end shortly with sundown and drifting into
a more stable air mass across northeast MA.
Otherwise, while most of CT and western MA should be high and
dry tonight, after coordination with NWS Gray/Portland I did
opt to hoist a Dense Fog Advisory for most of eastern MA into
the Boston- Providence I-95 corridor through 9 AM Wed. Much of
coastal ME/NH has been socked in with fog/mist under a cooler
maritime airmass. PBL cooling is evident tonight across most of
eastern MA and into northern sections of RI, with model BUFKIT
soundings from the HRRR and RAP-13km showing trapped shallow
moisture and anticipated very narrow dewpoint depressions. The
North Shore and at times Boston/Logan Airport has seen varying
visibilities in fog, but expect as boundary layer cools that fog
should begin to expand SSW with time into the late-evening and
overnight hrs. It is uncertain how long the fog risk may last as
winds flip to NW/WNW early overnight to the pre-dawn hrs and
that could bring rising visibilities sooner than the Advisory
would indicate; either way, it looks as though at least a
portion of the Wed AM commute should be impacted by low
visibilities. May need to consider expanding the Advisory
further into the South Coast and the Cape and Islands but have
better confidence on fog becoming the most dense in the Advisory
area.
Previous discussion:
Latest surface analysis shows a low over central MA which is
brining easterly on shore flow helping keep low clouds and fog
near the eastern coasts. Areas inland have started to see
pockets of sunshine with the strong June sun angle able to burn
off some of the low clouds and fog. With the forcing of the
surface low, some of the hi-res CAMS have some showers forming
over eastern MA and RI, however, with the dry slot in the mid
levels, any showers that try to form will get cut off at 700mb.
Any precip likely remains more drizzle then rain. Overnight,
the surface low begins to push east of the region shifting the
winds to the NE then NW. This will allow low status and fog to
redevelop over the eastern half of the region. Meanwhile the
western half of the region could see some clearing overnight.
This will allow overnight temps to remain warmer in the upper
50s for eastern MA and RI, while Western MA and CT likely see
lows drop into the low 50s. Fog and low status likely burn off
quickly after sunrise with temps recovering quickly with the
strong June sun angle.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights...
* Showers and a few strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon, temperatures are seasonably warm with highs 75 to 80
degrees.
Wednesday: A quiet morning across southern New England with some
linger areas of fog, but do anticipate that to lift quickly and
reveal a mixture of sun & clouds. Any clearing will be short-lived
as high & mid clouds do return ahead of an approaching surface low
pressure system. As advertised, we are expecting storms to develop
during the afternoon, from west to east, after 18z/2 PM. What has
changed since the previous update, much of southern New England has
been placed under a marginal risk for severe weather (about 5%
chance for severe winds). Latest 12z CAMs do show initiation across
eastern New York between 11 AM and 1 PM, then entering western
Connecticut and Massachusetts between 1 PM and 3 PM. Do think the
stronger storms will be confined to the west part of our CWA.
Forecast soundings indicate CAPE values between 800 and 1200 J/kg
not out of the question we may experience higher values if we are able
hold onto the sunshine during the late morning. Never the less, low
level lapse rates remain steep enough at 8 to 8.5 c/km, though the
mid-level lapse rates are less impressive around 6 to 6.5 c/km. The
surface to 6km shear is not as impressive at ~30 knots. But, with
sufficient CAPE, we may be able to overcome the lower shear. As you
can imagine, Wednesday is not a blockbuster severe weather day, but
there are enough parameters to justify a couple strong to severe
storms. Greatest concerns with these storms would be damaging
straight-line winds and frequent lightning. Can`t rule out some
smaller hail stones with the cold pool aloft from the mid-level low,
though the positioning may be a little too far to the west. Those
who have outdoor plans schedule tomorrow afternoon should monitor
conditions and have a plan to seek shelter inside if they hear
thunder. The line of storms exit off the eastern shore of
Massachusetts around or just after sunset.
Temperatures Wednesday afternoon are seasonable to slightly above
normal in the mid to upper-70s, not out of the question the metro
west of Boston nears 80 degrees.
Wednesday Night: Outside of a couple lingering showers, drying
conditions overnight. Areas that see heavy rain may experience some
patchy fog as clouds clear from the southwest overnight. South winds
overnight turn more west which will usher in drier airmass.
Temperatures fall into the mid to upper-50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
* Unsettled Thurs thru the weekend with diurnal rain/thunder
chances, tending more numerous for Fri and Sat. Neither day
is a washout and severe weather is not anticipated.
* Seasonable temps through the weekend, but trending cooler than
normal early next week with onshore flow.
Details:
Thursday through Sunday:
Heading into an overall unsettled weather pattern for the rest of
the workweek into the weekend, as Southern New England becomes
increasingly governed by longwave troughing at 500 mb. Under this
trough pattern, we expect there to be several opportunities for
clouds and mainly diurnally-driven shower and t-storm chances. While
there is a mention of showers and isolated storms each day, it`s not
likely to be wet during the entire period with several periods of
dry weather. Uncertainties revolve more around the strength and
timing of individual shortwave disturbances in the longwave trough
pattern and that will affect the coverage of showers and t-storms.
It appears that Fri into Sat will offer better overall rain chances,
as a shortwave trough moves in from the Gt Lakes Fri/Fri night and
closes off into an upper low over Southern New England for the rest
of the weekend.
More specific to Fri, showers and some storms may increase in number
especially later in the day as the aforementioned shortwave its
divergent height pattern aloft acts on what looks to be limited
convective instability. This instability seems to be limited by weak
lapse rates and a generous coverage of at least mid level cloudiness
that will serve to temper daytime heating. Wind profiles/shear also
look limited so the impression I get is a more limited risk for
strong-severe storms; instead more general, garden-variety storms
and their related risk for lightning and local downpours. With
somewhat cooler temperature profiles and continued cloud cover, may
see hit-or-miss showers and isolated t-storms during the daytime hrs
this weekend but at the moment it is more of a look of "showers to
dodge" vs a washout on any specific day.
Temperatures overall in this period trend a little cooler each day
around seasonable or slightly cooler than seasonable levels.
Humidity levels should be tolerable too, with dewpoints in the mid
50s to low 60s.
Early Next Week:
A bit more uncertainty in the 500 mb pattern and its evolution
renders reduced confidence in the forecast at this range. Cooler
than normal weather looks favored though as onshore flow increases
for Mon and Tue, with more clouds than sun with more limited rain
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster
Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence in trends but moderate on timing of fog
and stratus for eastern MA and RI.
VFR in the interior (mainly west of ORH) with light W winds.
Elsewhere however, IFR to LIFR (possible VLIFR) fog and stratus
to expand S/SW from coastal NH and the North Shore of MA, to
include BOS, BED, ORH and PVD. Fog and stratus may develop
across the Cape and Islands overnight too, but it`s less certain
how low visibilities may get. NE winds 5-8 kt to lighten and
become light NW by daybreak.
Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening, some of which could be strong to severe. Southerly
winds 5 to 10 kts.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate
timing. LIFR in fog to continue and may become locally dense
overnight; unclear on specific improvement timing but categories
should improve through the 10-12z window. Possible aftn
SHRA/VCTS but left as VCSH for now with better confidence west
of BED.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR tonight, low prob
for radiational BR/FG. Sct TS possible starting ~18z Wed, could
be strong. Indicated PROB30 in TAF to reflect TS risk.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. SHRA likely,
isolated TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High Confidence.
Spot shower, otherwise a mainly dry night. Areas of fog develop
overnight with reduced vsby. Seas building for southern waters 3 to
5 feet, while eastern waters are 2 to 4 feet. Winds become light and
variable for the first half of the night, then becoming
west/southwest between 8 and 15 knots.
Wednesday...High Confidence.
Areas of fog early, improving vsby throughout the morning. Showers
and isolated thunder mid afternoon into evening. Stronger storms may
reduce vsby, produce stronger gusts, and rough seas. Otherwise,
winds are south 10 to 15 knots with gusts below SCA criteria. Seas
generally between 2 and 4 feet.
Wednesday night...High Confidence.
Periods of rain and storms linger into the first-half of the night
then diminish during the second-half. Areas of low vsby with patchy
fog possible, but not as widespread as previous nights. Winds are
south, but becoming west by the end of the night less than 15 knots.
Seas building to near 5 feet off shore, otherwise 2 to 4 feet.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain
showers.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight
chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MAZ005>007-
013>019.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001-002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Dooley/KP
NEAR TERM...BW/KP
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley/KP
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley/KP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1022 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty drizzle or rain showers will continue this evening across
northern Vermont, and then a foggy start to Wednesday is
expected. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will shift
northeast and bring the potential for additional moderate to
heavy rain across the region. An upper low will linger over the
region bringing intervals of rain and the potential for hit or
miss afternoon thunderstorms through the end of the week into
the weekend. Temperatures will remain seasonable in the 70s
throughout the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1018 PM EDT Tuesday...Have cut back on fog across the
Champlain Valley as GOES 16 IR satl imagery shows cooling cloud
tops associated with ulvl jet max crossing acrs our central cwa
this evening. This energy aloft, combined with weak sfc
convergence has resulted in showers prevailing over central VT
with some development possible into parts of the CPV. Based on
crnt satl/water vapor trends and latest 00z HRRR have updated to
place chance pops back into the CPV and delayed the development
of fog until 06z for most of VT. Given clearing skies and light
winds, expecting fog to develop within the next hour or so at
SLK and deeper valleys of the dacks. Once the rain lifts
northeast of VT, areas of fog wl develop with lows ranging from
lower 40s to upper 50s.
Previous discussion follows:
Outside of southern Vermont and the St. Lawrence Valley,
northern New York and most of Vermont have experienced a dreary
day. The frontal occlusion that passed through early this
morning did wind up stalling across the region, trapping shallow
moisture across Vermont. Sharp, low-level convergence has been
producing spotty drizzle or showers from the eastern slopes of
the northern Adirondacks east across the upper half of Vermont
with a broken strip of heavier showers from Orange County
Vermont up through Orleans County. This has kept afternoon
temperatures a bit cooler across the region as well with mainly
upper 60s, though with a few 70s east due to the lack of
eastward progression from the occluded front. Eventually, we
will see precipitation exit northeast of the area. Beneath the
upper low, a pocket of clearing skies should yield excellent
conditions for the development of fog across the region, even in
some of the less fog prone areas. The fog should end fairly
quickly with the approach of our next system early tomorrow
morning. Overnight lows should settle in the mid 50s in Vermont,
with mid 40s to lower 50s across northern New York.
For Wednesday, there has been a notable shift northward in the track
of surface low pressure ejecting northeast as it rounds the large
upper level low. This means that we have even higher chances of
showers and thunderstorms for tomorrow. CAPE values of 500 to 750
J/kg and about 25 knots of 0-6km shear suggest some level of
organization is possible, with several mesoscale models hinting at
the potential for some broken, linear segments and some northward
lifting parallel stratiform rains in convection to the south. Given
the excellent upper level diffluence, this seems reasonable, and the
potential for higher rainfall rates will be monitored closely. The
potential for stronger storms appears limited due to marginal lapse
rates from poor surface heating and our placement in the northeast
quadrant of the incoming surface low. Probabilistic data from the
HREF suggests about a 10 percent chance of rainfall rates exceeding
1 inch in a 6 hour time frame. Given the recent rains, the main
impact would mainly be ponding across urban and poor drainage
basins, but we will keep an eye on convective development tomorrow.
Rainfall amounts should stay around 0.50-0.67", but the probability
of exceeding an inch along the spine of the Greens and patches
in the Adirondacks range from 10 to 20 percent.
The extent of showers will decrease Wednesday night, but activity
will remain possible as the upper low tracks overhead. There doesn`t
appear to be much clearing, and have left fog out for now. Overnight
lows will probably also be a bit warmer as a result, mostly in the
50s, but with a few spots in the upper 40s (mainly SLK).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 PM EDT Tuesday...A closed upper low will depart from the
region and head eastward towards the Maine coast by Thursday
morning. Although chances of rain are lower in the morning, by the
afternoon scattered showers are expected to develop as a surface
boundary drops down from Canada. Some thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon, especially given the sufficient CAPE values
(up to 900 J/kg), particularly in northern portions of the forecast
area. Showers will dwindle Thursday night with the loss of daytime
heating. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable, with highs in the
70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 401 PM EDT Tuesday...Persistence continues to be the forecast
as the unsettled weather pattern continues thanks to upper level
troughiness. Another closed upper low looks to impact the region
towards the very end of the week into the weekend, bringing along
chances for widespread showers. The generally unsettled pattern
continues through the remainder of the weekend into next week, with
possible showers in the afternoon and evenings, tapering off into
the overnight hours. Model guidance diverges as we head into next
week, however at this point it seems likely that the somewhat
unsettled weather will continue. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler than normal for the end of the week, but will warm up as we
head into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A frontal occlusion stalled over the
area, and is decaying. Spotty showers continue in eastern VT
with the broad southerly flow but should exit the region around
midnight. Some clearing has taken place across NY and will
slowly rotate eastward in VT. Some drier air across NY with
decent dewpoint spreads but really saturated across VT.
Any clearing will likely mean the development of fog, possibly
dense where greater clearing exists for a period. Low level
saturation should easily allow for stratus deck to redevelop
with winds basically calm or light and variable.
Mentioned BCFG or VCFG for most locations, and explicitly
mentioned 1/2SM to 2SM visibility at the most fog prone
terminals. The next system approaches from the southwest around
10-12z, which will scatter the fog with incoming clouds around
5000-7000 ft agl and south to southeast winds 4 to 8 knots.
Precipitation will arrive after 15z Wednesday with VFR
conditions expected.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes/SLW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
840 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain over the SE US over the next
several days leading to multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the middle of the week. A more typical
diurnal pattern of scattered afternoon thunderstorms returns for
late this week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Weak surface trough across the area. Frontal boundary near the
SC coast extending southwest across southern Ga then west across
the Deep South. Convection has focused near the front this
afternoon and radar at 00z showing convection moving off the Ga
and south coast SC. A rather tight moisture gradient across the
area with precipitable water below an inch in the Upstate and
near 2 inches near Savannah. The drier air mass appears to be in
place at the moment across the central and northern Midlands
where dew points remain in the 50s.
Late tonight, back to our west, an increasing SW flow at h85 is
expected to lead to the front lifting north some. An upper
shortwave is also progged to track east across the region.
Latest CAM`s indicate a cluster of convection developing to the
west which shifts east towards the CSRA late tonight or towards
daybreak Wednesday. Minor adjustment to the pops late tonight
based on the latest HRRR model....but forecast appears on track.
With increasing clouds and mixing in the boundary layer, temps
in the 60s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A surface front will be across the cwa through the period. This
will help with any surface convergence and moisture focusing.
Pesky closed upper low that has been situated across the Great
Lakes will be slowly moving back to the east through the day
Wednesday. An initial shortwave moving through on westerly flow
aloft across Ga will more than likely be producing some showers
and thunderstorms across the CSRA early in the day, before
moving off to the southeast by late morning. Severe threat
appears on the weaker side with that activity. A second and
potentially stronger shortwave moves across Ga and towards the
Carolinas during the late afternoon and evening Wednesday.
Instability will be higher, along with some shear, and can the
potential for severe winds and hail can not be ruled out with
this stronger shortwave as it moves along the surface front.
Activity may linger some into Wednesday night before weakening
but still leaving scattered showers for the remainder of the
night. Temperatures will be more dependent upon convective cloud
cover through the day, and highs in the mid 80s are expected.
Thursday look to be a little less active as surface front moves back
to the south. However it will still remain slow enough, especially
over the southern cwa, to keep a mention of scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the day. Lower more isolated shower and storm
activity expected further north. Despite a weak frontal passage,
highs Thursday may actually be a little warmer, with readings in the
mid to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, one closed low poised to rotate out of the Mid-Atlantic,
but this will quickly be replaced by another closed low digging
southward out of east-central Canada on Friday. So the upper
pattern over our area may not change much through the period.
Changes may be closer to the surface as slightly drier may move
into the region on Friday. This will help to lower any rain
chances into the weekend. Even so, still expecting the area to
see more seasonal and diurnal showers/storms each
afternoon/evening. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side
into early next week, with highs climbing back up into the lower
90s in many areas. Next cool down may not occur until Tuesday
with the approach of another cold front. Questions do exist as
to whether that front will make it through the area though.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR Conditions at all terminals currently with westerly winds
becoming lighter this evening. A front remains to the south of
the area with generally drier air in the low levels will prevent
fog from developing tonight. A disturbance early Wednesday
morning will generate some showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm mainly in the CSRA with the guidance showing a
chance for potentially brief MVFR ceiling and visibility
restrictions at the Augusta terminals. A low level jet
strengthens tonight but expected to remain below low level wind
shear criteria but as winds mix out into the day tomorrow expect
gusts between 20 to 25 kts out of the west during the
afternoon. Another disturbance moves into the area late Wednesday
afternoon with higher chance for thunderstorms to develop near
the terminals. Confidence in timing remains limited with HiRes
models generally favoring evening into Wednesday night. For now
have left the mention of ts out of all terminals.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Potential for scattered thunderstorms
into Wednesday night. Otherwise, scattered showers and
thunderstorms, along with some potential for late night early
morning fog/stratus, possible through the period. Some potential
for slightly drier air may reduce convective chances Fri into
the wee.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
614 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Forecast challenges deal with location of showers and storms
through the short term.
Surface analysis showing a surface high pressure across
north central Colorado this afternoon with surface boundary form
northeast Colorado to maybe near Cheyenne west to maybe Steamboat
Colorado. Easterly winds east and north of this boundary across
most of our northeastern CWA. Convection mainly confined to the
Laramie Range and points west. Though Cheyenne just had a brief
shower move through the past couple minutes. HRRR and RAP
simulated radar for this afternoon keeps most convection west this
afternoon.
A brief respite in the rain expected Wednesday as a transitory
upper ridge axis moves through the CWA. Showers will once again be
limited to the mountains and points west of the Laramie Range.
Next shortwave approaches the area from the west Wednesday night
into Thursday. Timing of this shortwave is during the afternoon so
look for showers and storms to be widespread across the entire CWA
once again. PWATS are back up near .8 inches across southeast
Wyoming and over 1 inch in the Panhandle Thursday afternoon.
Tall/skinny CAPES again for southeast Wyoming sites indicating
heavy rainfall. Maybe better chances for severe storms in the
Panhandle. WPC has a Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall
highlighted for the entire CWA Thursday. This upper trough
remains over the CWA Thursday night into Friday...so showers and
storms could linger into the overnight hours into Friday morning.
Given recent rainfall...may need another Flash Flood Watch for
Thursday for some areas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Friday...The next shortwave trough aloft moves across Wyoming and will
combine with plenty of low and mid level moisture to help generate
scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. Due to the increase in cloud cover and
precipitation coverage, temperatures will be somewhat cooler compared
to Thursday.
Saturday...As the flow aloft turns northwest with a low amplitude
shortwave ridge over Wyoming the atmosphere will dry out even more
with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible mainly south of
a Rawlins to Scottsbluff line. along with warmer temperatures due to
700 mb temperatures near 9 degrees Celsius and less cloud cover than
Friday.
Sunday...Maximum temperatures will warm even more for Father`s Day as
the ridge axis aloft moves over the western High Plains states and
southwest flow develops over our forecast area, establishing a decent
surface lee trough with 700 mb temperatures near 14 degrees Celsius.
It appears there will be enough low and mid level moisture combining
with surface heating to produce isolated afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.
Monday...Southwest flow aloft strengthens helping to further establish
the surface lee side trough axis and producing more warm maximum
temperatures with 700 mb temperatures near 15 degrees Celsius. Strong
daytime heating will combine with enough low and mid level moisture
to generate isolated late day showers and thunderstorms, most common
along and west of Interstate 25.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023
VFR conditions expected across area terminals through the forecast
period. Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the vicinity of
southeast WY terminals early this evening before dissipating.
SCT-BKN cumulus will also decrease in coverage over the next few
hours across the NE Panhandle giving way to SKC. Southeast WY
terminals will begin to see southwest winds increase Wednesday
morning around 15-20 kt with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon. Coverage will be less like today was
compared to earlier in the week and this past weekend, but kept
VCTS in the TAFs for southeast WY terminals in the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Minimal fire weather concerns with recent moderate to heavy rains
across most of southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. There
will be daily chances for showers and storms at least through the
weekend before we begin to see possibly a drier pattern taking
shape. Look for widespread wetting rains both Thursday and Friday
with heavy rain possible.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...MB
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
642 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
[Key Messages]
1) Isolated to scattered rain showers/sprinkles still possible in
the northeast CWA/NW IL through this evening.
2) Challenging temperature forecast/variability due to clouds and
some smoke increasing aloft. How much smoke also a challenge.
[Discussion]
Tonight...Water vapor(WV) loop and upper air analysis were showing
closed upper low portion of ongoing large blocking pattern, was
located acrs the central to eastern GRT LKS. West flank vort spoke
action was continuing to induce areas of showers acrs WI into
northeast IL/NW IN, with a chance for some of the north central WI
activity to clip the northeastern CWA thru mid evening. Mid level
lapse rates and MUCAPEs marginal and removed thunder wording. A few
sprinkles possible further to the west of this, battling dry air in
the low to mid levels. Not much QPF expected with this rainfall if
it can make into portions of the area. Then just varying amounts of
mid and high clouds overnight making for variable low temp scenario,
especially as sfc winds go light west to northwest. Generally low
temps in the mid 50s to around 60.
Wednesday...Upper air projections and ensemble handling suggest the
upstream omega block high to slide eastward enough to nudge the GRT
LKS upper low further to the east, probably enough to keep most of
the area precip-free under more influence of short wave upper
ridging. Some upper troffiness lingering enough for some spotty
precip chances more to the northeast acrs portions of WI. What may
be more of a factor will be the upper air pattern more conducive to
advect smoke aloft down acrs portions of the region as the day
progresses. The latest run RAP much more bullish in ducting some of
this smoke to the sfc than the HRRR does, especially along and east
of the MS RVR Valley. Low confidence in extent of this sfc ducting,
but may go with areas of haze as a place holder in the more favored
areas for now. But this may be overdoing it with the haze more
perceived as an "aloft" phenomena, as opposed to a true sfc
restriction. Fcst soundings continue to show inverted-V profiles for
deep mixing, up over H8 MB. With increasing thicknesses, will play
it warm with a lot of mid to upper 80s except for the northeast, but
some concern of smoke and high clouds filtering insolation possibly
limiting the true warm up potential. Wind profiles weaken, but the
inverted-V soundings may still allow for an occasional gust up to 20
MPH. ..12..
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
[Key Messages]
1) Dry heat Thursday and Friday
2) Rain chances return this weekend
[Discussion]
Wednesday night through Friday, mostly dry conditions will be common
as high pressure moves through the area. A weak cold front will drop
southward into the area on Thursday, as another upper low drops
south out of Canada into the Great Lakes region. Some upper level
energy is forecast to pivot down across southern WI and northern IL
in the cyclonic flow, which may induce some showers and storms
mainly to our NE. Slight POPs have been maintained in the Freeport,
Sterling, and Princeton, IL areas for Thursday afternoon. Wildfire
smoke is expected to be over the area resulting in a milkiness look
to the sky. The RAP is indicating some better chances of smoke near
the surface at times, which may need to be monitored. Friday, it
will be dry ahead of the next potential rain-maker for the weekend.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday, but with dew
points in the 50s and a WNW breeze it will actually result in
slightly lower heat index values. Friday, highs will be in the 80s,
with dew points mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The SW CWA may
see humidity levels inch upwards towards late afternoon.
Friday night through Tuesday, model guidance differs on bringing a
trough and a series of surface lows across the Plains and through
the mid and upper MS River Valley regions. While timing and
placement details still need refinement, the overall blended
forecast has slowed the onset and now has slight/low rain chances in
the western CWA Friday evening through Saturday morning, and then
brings chance POPS (40 to 50 percent) across the area Saturday
afternoon through Sunday, with lower chances lingering beyond. Highs
through the period will mainly be in the 80s. While there will be an
increase in humidity, dew point values will remain unseasonably low
with values in the 40s and 50s Saturday rising into the mid 50s to
localized areas of mid 60s by Sunday and Monday. Further adjustments
to this time period are expected as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. We will
continue to contend with some mid- to high-level cloud cover, with
west to northwest winds less than 10 knots. There continues to be
a low chance for haze from wildfire smoke possibly reducing
visibilities Wednesday, but confidence is quite low on this, so
will leave out of TAFs for now.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Schultz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1235 PM PDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Lingering instability will provide for slight chances
of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada through
Friday. Temperatures will slowly increase to around 4 to 8 degrees
above normal by the end of the week. A low pressure system will
then bring lower temperatures and some gusty winds for the start
of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Weak low pressure remains over southern portions of California,
while a high pressure ridge leans inland across the north. Most of
central California remains in a northeasterly flow between the two
synoptic features. High temperatures in this pattern today will
increase a few degrees from Monday`s highs. Sufficient moisture
and instability remains for another round of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. There is enough available
moisture that WPC gives our Sierra zones a 5-14 percent probability
for excessive rainfall. Latest HRRR runs are showing some locations
in the Sierra with 1/2" to 3/4" hourly QPF amounts later this
afternoon and early evening.
Model ensemble members keep a weakening troughiness over our area,
with gradually increasing heights and thicknesses through the end
of the week leading to a continued gradual warming trend. A
chance for thunderstorms and marginal risk for excessive rainfall
continues over the Sierra Wednesday, tapering off through the end
of the week with lingering thunderstorm chances confined mainly to
the higher elevations in Tulare and Fresno counties Thursday and
Friday. As temperatures gradually warm through the end of the
week, National Blended Model guidance predicts high temperatures
to be 4-8 degrees above seasonal averages by Saturday, with around
45 to 70 percent probabilities that highs will be least 95
degrees in the San Joaquin Valley.
The ensemble model runs continue with similar solutions into the
start of next week, as a developing low pressure system slips
into the Pacific Northwest region and digs a trough along the
west coast. This will bring lowering temperatures in a more
westerly flow pattern, while also keeping the risk of
thunderstorms near zero. Afternoon highs will return to near
normal on Sunday, then top out around 6-10 degrees below normal on
Monday. Probabilities are around 50 to 60 percent that highs
Monday in the San Joaquin Valley will be no higher than 85
degrees. Tuesday`s highs are progged to trend just a few degrees
upward from Monday but remain below normal values. In addition to
the cooler temperatures, the trough will bring increased
northwesterly winds for the start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and mountain obscuring IFR conditions
near showers and thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada through 06Z
Wed and again after 18Z Wed. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail across the central CA interior through at least the next
24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
public...JEB
aviation....JEB
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Key Points:
* Another chance of widely scattered storms tonight.
* Diurnal storm chances for Wed afternoon.
* Better storm chances Thu night through early Fri. (Complex of
storms)
* Lingering storm chances into the weekend.
* Summer heat returns late this weekend into next week.
Fairly pleasant conditions were found across the plains states this
afternoon, with temperatures about 5 degrees below seasonal
averages. Seeing some convection beginning to develop over SW KS and
SE CO late this afternoon, with some of the convection expected to
trek east for the evening hours. Not sure how far east the SW KS
will get, as instability diminishes for areas east of I-135. Will
keep an afternoon pop in for any stray storm venturing east into
central KS. Late this evening, propagation vectors suggest that if
the SE CO convection evolves into a complex of storms (MCS) that it
will drift SE into OK, staying SW of the forecast area.
With that said, latest RAP shows some weak 850-700h moisture
transport expected to increase across central and south central KS
late this evening or overnight, just to the north of the MCS. So
could see some widely scattered showers or storms develop with this
moisture transport either late this evening or overnight. Will keep
a low pop going for this chance.
For Wed, could see some lingering morning isolated storms around,
due to lingering 850-700h moisture transport, but think most of the
morning showers/storms will dissipate early in the morning. A
little uncertain on how Wed afternoon will play out, as some of the
short term models suggest that diurnally driven showers/storms will
be possible across southern KS, as a remnant Meso Convective Vort
(MCV), may be drifting across southern KS for the daytime hours.
Directional shear associated with the MCV with effective shear
around 20-25kts may lead to a few strong storms, given MLCAPE values
around 1000-1500 J/KG. This will probably be more of a meso
situation, based on the position of the MCV. Expect most of Wed
afternoon`s convective chances to be diurnally driven, with a quiet
night expected Wed night.
Weak mid level ridging is expected to move quickly across the area
for late Wed through most of the daytime hours on Thu, with a
warming trend back towards climo normals for temperatures.
Both the GFS and ECMWF are similar in showing a shortwave moving out
of the Rockies for Thu evening/night, which should lead to
convection developing across the High Plains and western KS for Thu
Evening. Both models suggest that this convection will grow upscale
into some sort of eastward propagating MCS for Thu night, which will
move east across most of the forecast area either late Thu evening
or overnight Thu into early on Fri. Effective shear is a little
better for Thu night, around 30-40kts, as this MCS moves across the
area, with moderate instability expected to be in place, which may
lead to this MCS being strong to severe along its leading edge late
Thu evening.
Could see some lingering showers/storms over the eastern half of the
forecast area on Fri morning, otherwise expect most of the daytime
hours on Fri to remain dry, as most of the area will be in a stable
airmass from the previous nights MCS.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
The unsettled weather pattern looks to continue for Fri night into
the weekend. Latest medium models suggest that another MCS may come
off of the High Plains for Fri night, and trek east-southeast across
southern KS. There is also indications that another MCS could
develop right over the forecast area across southern KS on Sat night
as well.
Summer type heat looks to move into the area towards the end of the
weekend and into the beginning of next week, as the medium range
models suggest mid/upper ridging will build across the plains.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Widely scattered convection will affect the I-70 corridor of
central Kansas from Russell to Salina this evening. Isolated
convection is possible later tonight into early Wednesday morning
across central and southern Kansas. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail away from any convection tonight and
Wednesday with winds remaining light.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 62 82 61 88 / 20 20 20 10
Hutchinson 60 82 60 88 / 20 20 20 20
Newton 61 82 61 88 / 20 20 20 20
ElDorado 60 82 61 88 / 20 20 20 10
Winfield-KWLD 61 82 61 88 / 20 20 20 10
Russell 59 84 58 88 / 30 20 20 30
Great Bend 59 81 58 86 / 30 20 20 30
Salina 60 85 59 91 / 20 20 20 20
McPherson 59 83 59 88 / 20 20 20 20
Coffeyville 62 84 62 89 / 20 20 20 10
Chanute 62 83 62 88 / 20 20 20 10
Iola 60 83 62 88 / 20 20 20 10
Parsons-KPPF 62 84 62 89 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
907 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Going forecast is generally on track this evening, though did
make some tweaks to pops/temps based on radar and surface obs
trends since late afternoon. Have seen some more intense rainfall
rates and amounts (half inch to in excess of an inch) across parts
of Cook county and into northwest Indiana, though rainfall will
be tapering off and ending from the north over the next few hours.
RAP mesoanalysis data depicts a sharp low-level thermal/moisture
gradient across southern WI, northeast IL and northern and central
IN early this evening. The latest (and last substantial) in a
series of vort lobes was wrapping cyclonically southeastward
across the area within the western periphery of an upper low
centered near southern Lake Huron. This vort lobe has focused
forcing along the baroclinic zone across northeast IL/northwest IN
this afternoon and evening, within an axis of 1.20"+ pwats and
weak instability to produce areas of light/moderate rain and even
brief locally heavy rates during the late afternoon/early evening
hours. The mid-level vort lobe is progged to propagate off to the
southeast of the forecast area through midnight however, allowing
a southeastward shift and gradual end of rain. Did raise pops a
bit through mid- evening for areas south of I-80 and into much of
northwest Indiana as this occurs, with the bulk of the area dry
after midnight. Low clouds do look to linger into Wednesday
morning however, before the upper low slowly drifts far enough to
our east to allow improving conditions later in the day. Temps
should settle into the mid-upper 50s across the area overnight.
Other than aforementioned tweaks to pops/rain coverage and hourly
temp trends this evening, going forecast has a decent handle on
things, and no other changes are warranted at this time.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Through Wednesday night...
Key Forecast Messages:
* Unseasonably cool with (mainly light) rain/showers northeast 1/3
of the area coming to an end in the evening
* Canadian wildfire smoke returns on Wednesday with some haze
possible
The very well defined and unseasonably deep closed mid-upper low
centered near Lake Huron this afternoon will slowly gyrate eastward
through Wednesday. A lead vorticity maxima on the western side of
the expansive circulation of the closed low generated the area of
primarily light rain with occasional embedded moderate rates over
northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. Another vort max dropping
south along the WI shore of Lake Michigan looks to enhance/reinforce
some of the rain into early this evening for generally the same area
that has observed rain this afternoon, so again primarily the
northeast 1/3 of the CWA. Primarily light scattered showers will
extend back a bit to the west and southwest of the coherent shield
of light rain. Rain/showers will then gradually come to an end the
remainder of the evening, for a dry overnight for most locales, and
some breaks in the clouds, especially west. Forecast lows are in the
mid to upper 50s.
Wednesday will be warmer and trending sunnier with time, though
likely filtered a bit by the return of upper level smoke from
Canadian wildfires, as indicated by RAP/HRRR smoke forecasts. In
addition, some boundary layer haze may occur from portions of
northwest Illinois southward to portions of east central
Illinois, per the near-surface smoke progs from the RAP/HRRR.
Can`t rule out an isolated/stray shower Wednesday afternoon as mid
to upper 50s dew points pool inland of the lake breeze. However,
with little upper level support and convergence, will maintain a
dry forecast officially. It will be a noticeably warmer day,
especially west (locally mid 80s near/west of I-39) though still a
bit below normal with eastward extent (70s to near 80), and
onshore winds keeping lakeside locations primarily in the 60s for
highs. Wednesday night will be tranquil with lows in the 50s to
near 60.
Castro
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Thursday through Tuesday...
By Thursday, the upper-level low that is currently bringing us our
April-like weather will be over New England and the Canadian
Maritimes, and another shortwave trough will scurry southeastward
across Ontario Wednesday into Thursday to fill the void over the
Great Lakes behind this upper low. This will help drive a cold
front southward into our forecast area on Thursday, which will
likely end up being "lake-charged" to some extent given the
relatively cool water temperatures present across Lake Michigan
(low 50s across interior portions of the lake and near 60 along
the Illinois and Indiana lakeshore). The timing of this frontal
passage will play a key role in dictating what Thursday`s high
temperatures will be, but the majority of recent guidance suggests
that the frontal passage will be late enough to allow most
locations in our forecast area to reach the 80s, with low 90s not
entirely out of the question either for some. If this were to
indeed occur, then expect temperatures to quickly come crashing
down behind the lake-charged front as the post-frontal lake-
influenced air mass surges inland. There is a lower-end chance
that some spotty showers and perhaps a storm or two could develop
along the front as it progresses inland, but most, if not all,
shower and storm activity should remain to our east where the
core of the forcing support aloft associated with the shortwave
will be.
Cooler and drier conditions can be expected on Friday in the wake of
the frontal passage, along with primarily cloud-free skies. Though,
with flow through much of the column carrying a northerly component
behind the front/shortwave, we`ll need to keep an eye on whether a
renewed incursion of Canadian wildfire smoke will result in yet
another period of milky/hazy skies heading into the weekend. Our
weather for the weekend and into early next week will primarily
depend on a shortwave that is progged to eject out of the Rockies
into the central Plains on Friday and to what extent ridging/high
pressure over the Midwest/Great Lakes can quash its eastward
progression. 12Z deterministic and ensemble guidance was in fairly
good agreement that most or all of our forecast area should
remain dry now on Saturday, and the NBM PoPs have responded to
that trend, though they still came in with some slight chance and
low end chance probabilities due to some of the NBM`s time-lagged
members. Have kept these for now, but suspect that most or all
mentionable PoPs on Saturday will need to be removed one way or
another if these recent forecast trends continue to hold in
forthcoming guidance. Precipitation chances for Sunday into Monday
are still less certain with the latest deterministic runs of the
ECMWF and GFS still keeping us dry in spite of some continued
support for precipitation during this time frame in the 12Z EPS
and GEFS. Left the NBM`s chance PoPs for Sunday and Monday
untouched for now given the existing spread in guidance, but
suspect that they are probably overdone.
Ogorek
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Forecast concerns for the terminals...
*Showers gradually tapering through the evening
*Ceilings becoming MVFR behind the showers overnight before
improving Wednesday morning
*Lake breeze develops Wednesday afternoon
An area of light to moderate showers continues to advance across
northern Illinois and northwest Indiana this evening associated
with a series of upper-level disturbances. These showers are
expected to persist through early evening before tapering after
02z. While most showers will be light and cause minimal impacts,
more robust showers will be capable of reducing visibilities for a
brief period. As the showers exit ceilings are expected to lower
to higher end MVFR conditions and remain as such through the
night. However, there is some uncertainty in coverage of MVFR
conditions, especially with westward extent, so there is a chance
the sites further inland may remain VFR. Regardless, ceilings are
expected to improve Wednesday morning with VFR conditions
prevailing through the conclusion of the forecast period.
Finally, the west-northwesterly winds will remain breezy through
mid-evening with gusts in the low to mid 20 kt range. As gusts
ease late this evening winds will become northwesterly overnight
and remain as such through the day on Wednesday. However, a lake
breeze is forecast to develop Wednesday afternoon and move inland
which will turn winds easterly in its wake. At this time the lake
breeze looks to arrive in the 19z to 21z timeframe which has been
captured at the Chicago terminals, though slight changes in
timing may occur if the lake breeze gets hung up as some guidance
suggests.
Yack
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSChicago
www.twitter.com/NWSChicago
www.youtube.com/NWSChicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1058 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- Another round of smoke will push in tonight into Thursday.
- Dry until Friday when shower and thunderstorm chances increase for
the weekend. Widespread beneficial rains are not expected for the
foreseeable future.
- Very warm temperatures continue through the period.
A large upper low over the Great Lakes continues to spin. Rain and
extensive cloud cover are remaining to the east and it isn`t bringing
much sensible weather here aside from northwest winds at the moment.
That will change later tonight and especially late Wednesday into
Thursday as smoke from southern Canada is advected in. HRRR-Smoke
suggests some of this may be surface-based across west central MN
Wednesday night, but haze is expected area wide. Temperatures
shouldn`t be impacted Wednesday with one finger of elevated smoke
pushing through tonight and the brunt of the next round arriving late
in the day Wednesday. Highs Wednesday look quite warm with 925 mb
temps of +24 to +25C and should see some 90 degree highs.
A backdoor cold front will sag southwest Thursday and set up an
impressive temperature gradient in the afternoon somewhere along the
Mississippi River. Highs in the low 90s are likely across western MN
with only 70s across north central WI. High pressure over Lake
Superior will reinforce the flow off the lake and temperatures may
drop into the 60s there in the afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for the weekend, but
widespread rain is not expected. Weak disturbances will weaken the
central U.S. ridge for a couple days and should support diurnal
convection. By Sunday, the nucleus of the those disturbances will
dive southeast into the southeastern U.S. and the Omega pattern will
strengthen once again into early next week. Deep troughs on either coast
with an amplified ridge across the central U.S. spells trouble for
any decent rain chances locally for some time. It also means the
possibility for an extended period of hot weather with drought likely
expanding.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023
Main change for the 6z TAFs was to get more aggressive with dropping
visibilities behind the cold front currently moving south across
northern MN. This is based on what we`re seeing from the 00z HRRR
Near-Surface smoke forecast, which is currently correlating well with
the IFR/MVFR visibilities we`re seeing up along the international
border. Besides the smoke, the CAMs continue to hint at the potential
for a stray shower in the afternoon more or less lined up along the
I-94 corridor, though the threat of that happening continues to be
too low to include in any of the TAFs.
KMSP...If the current relationship between surface visibilities and
the HRRR near-surface smoke concentrations holds, then MSP will
likely see IFR visibilities in smoke starting as early as 20z. Was
not ready to go quite that aggressive with surface visibilities, but
do feel it worthy to at least drop vis down into MVFR levels when the
HRRR shows the thicker smoke moving in with the cold front.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Winds NE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA in evening. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
752 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2023
Satellite imagery/RAP analysis indicates a surface low still
rotating over eastern Upper Michigan, resulting in scattered rain
showers through tonight across central and eastern portions of the
UP. Highest rainfall amounts will remain concentrated over northern
Baraga and Marquette Counties through this evening, then weakening
in intensity as the surface low pushes eastward. Nonetheless, a
stalled frontal boundary tonight will keep rain chances in the
forecast across the eastern half, but additional QPF amounts will be
less then a tenth of an inch over those counties. Best chances for
any fog formation tonight will remain confined to the
south/southeast counties. Look for overnight lows generally in the
mid to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2023
By Wednesday morning, the 500mb trough and surface low are
vertically stacked and moving east over the Lower Great Lakes.
Synoptic forcing for precipitation departs for the day Wednesday,
bringing an end to a pretty rainy period for the UP, though the
moisture was helpful for mitigating fire weather concerns. Despite
the lack of widespread precipitation during the day, RH`s will hold
at or above 50 percent, meaning little to no fire weather concerns
Wednesday. It is worth noting that the CAMs consistently bring
diurnal convective initiation Wednesday afternoon to Dickinson and
Menominee counties for a few hours, though HREF solutions vastly
differ on whether those areas will have 1,000+ J/kg of SBCAPE or
none. With flow aloft 30kt or less for the entire column via RAP
soundings and low level backing and an otherwise stright hodograph,
expecting just popup thunderstorms with no severe potential, but
worth monitoring if the HREF as a whole trends towards higher
instability solutions. Wednesday night, a fast-moving shortwave
sends a cold front diving southward from Ontario towards the eastern
portions of Lake Superior and Upper Michigan, bringing some precip
chances back into the forecast for Thursday morning. QPF should be
fairly low, with GEFS chances for measurable 24-hr QPF ending Friday
morning being only around 20-50 percent for the central and
eastern UP.
Once the shortwave departs and the trough as a whole departs to the
east, 500mb ridging builds across the east half of the CONUS and
quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the long term
forecast. With large-scale subsidence clearing skies out, Friday
morning`s temperatures could fall to the mid 30s, bringing frost
potential for a handful of hours around sunrise. Some patchy fog
will also be possible in spots as the pressure gradient relaxes and
morning winds become weak. The 06Z GEFS only showing a couple of
ensemble members bringing any precip to KERY between Thursday and
the following Thursday, and only a few more ensemble members
bringing precip over the weekend to the central and western UP. Any
precip will likely have to come from diurnal convection as positive
500mb height anomalies over northern Ontario and Lake Superior soar
into the teens of dam under the ridge. Ensembles are gradually
coming into more agreement of a persistent Hudson Bay High setting
up for the start of next week. With perhaps a week of inconsistent
at best precipitation out west and virtually no precipitation
expected for the central and east the next week, renewed fire
weather concerns may be possible. A return to the 80s for highs is
expected by early next week UP-wide, and for the interior UP as soon
as Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 737 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2023
Surface low pressure and associated shower activity will
gradually slide se of the area as conditions trend upward through
the forecast period. Expect VFR conditions through the forecast
period at both IWD and CMX. SAW will see continued scattered showers
and IFR conditions at least thru this evening under a northerly
onshore flow off Lake Superior. As showers taper off later tonight
at SAW there could even be a trend toward LIFR conditions in
developing stratus/fog. SAW will then improve through late Wed
morning reaching VFR by afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 336 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2023
A 1000mb low over Lake Superior this afternoon will bring in
northerly winds 15 to 25 knots through this evening and after a
brief break overnight, gusty northerly winds return Wednesday.
Thursday`s winds gradually decrease as surface ridging builds south
across the lake. Friday afternoon, wind gusts over 20 knots will be
limited to the extreme east and west Friday afternoon due to local
effects. Otherwise, under a Hudson Bay High, wind gusts remain below
20 knots.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
006.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...GS