Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/13/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
754 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
HRRR continues to indicate low level moisture will return farther
west, possibly reaching Las Vegas and even Clines Corners,
so increased areal coverage of clouds overnight. Also added patchy
fog to portions of the northeast and east central. HRRR also
indicates some of the activity in southeast Colorado may drift
into northeast New Mexico overnight, so expanded low pops into
Union, Harding and part of Quay counties. Updated ZFP is out.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Strong to severe storms across northeast New Mexico should move east
into Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma shortly after sunset. Another round
of strong to severe storms will be possible across extreme northeast
New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. The story will then transition to the
heat as high pressure over Mexico builds north with Albuquerque
achieving its first 90 degree day by Thursday and Roswell reaching
the low to mid 100s daily. Breezy to locally windy conditions along
with areas of critical fire weather along and west of the central
mountain chain will exist each afternoon. A stray shower or storm
could be possible in the northern mountains come this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Another round of strong to severe storms has developed along the
northeast highlands this afternoon. Training supercells since last
night in the area from near Cimarron to Raton has resulted in a
band of rainfall estimates of 5 to 7". Near-term CAMs are latching
onto this activity moving east/northeast across the plains where
a Severe Tstorm Watch is in effect. The latest SPC mesoanalysis
shows MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg with impressive bulk shear of
50 to 60 kt and plenty of moist, low level inflow. Antecedent
conditions are also ripe for flash flooding with several reports
of bankfull flows on numerous creeks and streams in northeast NM.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of northeast NM thru
8pm. Very dry southwest flow over much of central and western NM
is expected to force storms out of northeast NM after sunset.
However, low level moisture will shift southwest overnight on
convective outflow yet again. Widespread low cigs and areas of fog
are likely, especially around Union and Colfax counties.
Tuesday will be active again across the northeast plains where more
strong to potentially severe storms may occur. Forecast models show
the overall coverage of storms to be less than today and focused
more into extreme northeast NM. However, models have underestimated
how far the southwestern extent of moisture pulses each night and
the overall persistence of the upper level wave pattern over the
southern Rockies. Another Flash Flood Watch may be needed Tuesday
for northeast NM. Temps have been impressively cool across northeast
NM with highs in the 60s averaging 15 to 25F below normal.|
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
A persistence pattern is generally expected in the long term
beginning Wednesday as the region remains under upper level westerly
to southwesterly flow. West to southwest winds will be breezy to
locally windy each and every afternoon as the subtropical jet
remains draped over the state. Thursday and Friday afternoon winds
look to be a little stronger as the upper low over southern CA
ejects northeast. This along with a northern stream trough diving
southeast could cause a stray strong to severe storm across far
northeast NM Friday afternoon and evening. The heat will be another
story as the subtropical high over Mexico tries to build north over
the Big Bend of Texas. Albuquerque could finally reach 90 degrees
Wednesday but most likely Thursday, while Roswell will see
temperatures in the low to mid 100s daily beginning Thursday. 90s
will be common across the central and lower RGV and eastern NM by
this weekend, with highs near to above 100 across southeast NM.
Upper level troughing looks to remain over southern CA through early
next week keeping a segment of the subtropical jet over NM. This
will keep the breezy to locally windy conditions, especially over
western and central areas, through the weekend into early next week.
PWATs could increase a touch areawide this weekend, and this could
cause a stray shower or storm to pop up in the northern mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Dry southwest winds aloft. Lcl swly sfc winds gusting to around
35kt over wrn and and central NM decreasing aft 13/02Z. Sct
showers and tstms over ne NM to continue moving ewd with isold
storms producing large hail and wind gusts to 50kt. Convection to
diminish aft 13/02Z. MVFR to IFR cigs persisting in far ne NM at
23Z will return south and westward potentially reaching KLVS aft
13/06Z as well as KTCC but confidence is low the low level
moisture will reach KCQC. Patchy br is also possible with the low
clouds. Improving conditions aft 13/15Z but convection to
redevelop over ne NM aft 13/18Z where isold strong to severe
storms are again possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
A persistent pattern of very dry southwest flow across the region
will become more zonal Tuesday and Wednesday. Localized critical
fire weather will continue across central NM with breezy west to
southwest winds, single digit RH, poor to fair recoveries, and 5 to
6 Haines. Northeast NM will remain wet with potential for showers
and storms each day. By Thursday and Friday, flow aloft is expected
to strength as an upper ridge builds north and an upper low deepens
over the Great Basin. Hot, dry, windy, and unstable conditions are
possible across a larger portion of central and western NM. Locally
critical conditions may persist into next weekend with very little
change to the overall pattern.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 47 80 48 85 / 0 5 0 0
Dulce........................... 39 73 39 79 / 0 20 0 5
Cuba............................ 43 75 45 79 / 0 5 0 0
Gallup.......................... 40 76 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 39 72 41 77 / 0 5 0 0
Grants.......................... 40 77 41 83 / 0 5 0 0
Quemado......................... 41 76 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 48 79 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 43 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 36 82 39 86 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 48 84 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 38 66 39 72 / 0 20 0 10
Los Alamos...................... 50 73 50 77 / 0 5 0 0
Pecos........................... 46 72 47 77 / 0 5 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 40 67 40 72 / 5 20 5 10
Red River....................... 36 63 36 69 / 5 30 5 20
Angel Fire...................... 34 64 35 69 / 5 20 0 10
Taos............................ 38 73 39 78 / 0 10 0 5
Mora............................ 43 69 43 76 / 0 10 0 5
Espanola........................ 48 79 48 85 / 0 5 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 49 74 50 79 / 0 5 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 46 78 47 82 / 0 5 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 82 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 55 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 86 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 84 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 52 87 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 53 84 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 50 86 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 54 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 51 86 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 53 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 54 82 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 54 89 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 75 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 49 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 47 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 77 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 45 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 48 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 48 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 55 84 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 48 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 45 68 45 74 / 20 50 10 10
Raton........................... 46 73 44 78 / 20 30 5 5
Springer........................ 47 77 46 81 / 10 20 0 5
Las Vegas....................... 44 75 46 79 / 5 5 0 0
Clayton......................... 52 74 51 79 / 30 40 10 5
Roy............................. 50 75 49 79 / 20 10 0 5
Conchas......................... 55 85 55 89 / 5 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 54 82 54 86 / 5 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 54 83 54 87 / 5 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 55 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 55 88 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 56 87 56 91 / 5 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 60 97 61 99 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 55 87 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 51 84 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
912 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
As of 2 PM CDT, winds are light, out of the west or northwest for
areas east of the Missouri River and more out of the south for areas
west river. Skies are clear with some cumulus clouds popping up east
of the James River. Temperatures are closer to normal so far this
afternoon, in the mid to upper 70s.
The short term is quiet and no precip is expected. However, upper
level high pressure over southern Canada combined with the upper
level low pressure to our east will bring northerly winds into the
upper levels. HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke brings a good bit of
elevated smoke into the area tonight and into tomorrow. Little to no
surface smoke is expected during the period. Increased sky cover a
little to account for elevated smoke. Decreased dew points for
tomorrow afternoon a little to account for mixing. Temperatures will
be warming up into the 80s tomorrow. Light winds will continue
through the end of the period with gusts up to perhaps 20 mph on
Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Key Messages:
* Above normal temperatures Wed-Thurs, with shower/thunderstorm
potential (20-45% chances) returning Thursday into Friday.
* After a brief cool down on Friday, temperatures warm back to above
normal values for the weekend and into next week.
Upper ridge will be again centered over the area at the start of the
period and lead to above normal temperatures on Wed/Thursday. This
ridge will be between an upper low spinning over the eastern Great
Lakes and an upper trough over the Canadian Rockies. That upper
trough will bring the best chance for precipitation as it moves east
through central Canada and brushes the northern Plains. Definitely
more consistency in this trough track/timing in the ensemble
clusters when compared to yesterday, which brings a little more
confidence on expectations. Should see the bulk of the upper level
support stay well to the northwest of the area, but seeing some
indications of a shortwave lifting northeast and across the area on
Thursday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located in central SD
Thursday morning and slowly shift eastward through Thursday night
and into Friday. This is slower than was seen yesterday, which leads
to an elongated period of PoPs (20-45%). QPF potential has also
increased for eastern parts of our area, as 75th percentile precip
in the EC-Ens for KABR yesterday was around 0.2" and now it`s up to
0.5" (probs of 0.1" of rain in 24hrs have increased by 20% to 60-
70%). As we`ve seen for much of this spring/summer, the better
instability looks to be offset from the better shear, so that lowers
the confidence on any widespread severe threat in the Thurs-Friday
timeframe. In addition, there still remains fairly significant
differences in the amount of instability present on Thurs between EC-
Ens/GEFS/GEPS, with the GEPS running on the high end and EC on the
low end. Finally, the timing of the better forcing moving through
during the overnight hours may also contribute to lower severe
potential.
Behind the Thursday/Friday period, expect another quick cool down
towards more normal temperatures as we get under the backside of the
upper trough. Then a upper ridge builds back over the area for the
second half of the weekend and into next week, as an upper trough
again sets up over the PacNW. Ensemble clusters are in much better
agreement with this setup when compared to yesterday, thus
confidence is growing in that scenario. With the upper trough off to
the west, increasing instability, and above normal temperatures,
it`s looking like there is the potential for a little more active
weather next week (if shortwaves eject out of the upper trough out
west).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Tuesday. Elevated smoke will be over the region through
the TAF period.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...Parkin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
948 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Quiet this evening and overnight, with overnight lows in the upper
40s to upper 50s. Smoke aloft is thicker than what we`ve seen
lately, with a hazy sunset this evening. The latest HRRR smoke
model run does show thicker smoke aloft through tomorrow,
especially across central and eastern North Dakota. There are some
indications of surface smoke increasing as well, with a stronger
signal late tomorrow into Wednesday, focused in our eastern
counties.
Some of the latest high-res guidance is showing slightly more
convection developing tomorrow afternoon and evening compared to
previous runs, as there is more confidence in a weak cold front
moving far enough south to make it into the forecast area. Will
keep slight chance PoPs as is, but something to watch in the next
few updates.
UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
An area of high clouds has developed across far western North
Dakota, with the remainder of the forecast area mostly clear this
evening. GOES GeoColor satellite imagery does reveal some smoke
aloft present over the area, which has led to a bit of a milky
appearance to part of the sky. Should be a quiet night, with no
changes needed to the forecast with this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Look for a dry and seasonal night tonight, with warming
temperatures and mainly dry conditions tomorrow.
High pressure will continue to remain over the area tonight. This
will bring dry conditions and mainly clear skies. Look for
seasonal lows generally in the 50s tonight. The HRRR near surface
smoke forecast looks to keep smoke generally north of the area
through tonight. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecast
does bring some increased levels across the central and east
tonight, perhaps providing for some hazy and cloudy like
conditions. Overall confidence was not high enough to include in
the forecast at this time for tonight.
Tuesday, the upper level ridge and surface high weaken slightly
throughout the day. As this does so a weak surface boundary may
sneak into the north. This combined with weak instability and
temperatures above the convective temperature could bring an
isolated (non-severe) thunderstorm. Highest confidence right now
is in the north central where slight pops are now in place.
Perhaps an isolated storm could develop in some central and
eastern portions, although confidence in this occurring is low.
The northeast winds from this weak boundary could also provide for
some increased smoke aloft and potentially at the surface. The
HRRR smoke forecast is hinting at perhaps some increased smoke
tomorrow as a result, although confidence is not high enough to
place in the forecast at this time. Otherwise look for
temperatures to continue to warm tomorrow, with many highs in the
mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Warmer temperatures and increased precipiation chances are
expected through the long term.
An upper level ridge is forecast to shift eastward over the Northern
Plains Wednesday bringing warmer temperatures. However, the high
pressure system will weaken a bit keeping temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. An upper low will dig into the Pacific Northwest pushing
into the Northern Rockies Thursday. This will bring a cold front
through the region Thursday. Temperatures will cool behind the front
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. If the front comes through during
the day precipiation chances will increase due to increased
instability ahead of the front from diurnal heating. Now if the
front moves into western and central North Dakota earlier in the
morning instability will be weaker resulting in decreased
precipiation chances. WPC Clusters analysis for Day 3 and Day 4
reflects the two aforementioned scenarios with around a 50% chance
for both scenarios. Shear will remain minimal likely hindering
severe weather chances.
The upper low will lift through Saskatchewan bringing rain to the
eastern half off the state Friday. This weekend temperatures will
begin to trend up as a weak upper level ridge move across the
Northern Plains. Temperatures could touch the lower 90s by the
weekend. Troughing will return to Western CONUS next week bringing
back southwest flow aloft to the Northern Plains. Increased
instability and shear could lead to a more unsettled weather pattern
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the TAF
period. There are a few high clouds moving through the area this
evening, and smoke aloft has returned from Canadian wildfires.
However, no visibility reductions or mention of smoke were
included in the TAFs at this time. Tuesday afternoon, there is a
slight chance of a few isolated thunderstorms in the north
central, but confidence is too low to include a mention at KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Jones
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Jones
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1002 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
KEY MESSAGES
1) Quiet conditions and warm temperatures persist through the middle
of the week.
2) Some upper level wildfire smoke may be present beginning
tonight, mainly west of I-29
3) Potential for thunderstorms from late Thursday and especially
into Friday night. Severe weather is unlikely.
Tonight: Vertically stacked closed low over the Great Lakes will
continued to keep the flow over the more immediate region fairly
stagnant. At the same time, surface high pressure centered to our
south will keep for quiet conditions overnight.
With a northerly trajectory, and current satellite imagery showing
smoke again pooling across Canada, we should see some upper level
wildfire smoke drift back into areas mainly west of I-29 later
tonight. Both RAP and HRRR near surface guidance suggest any surface
impacts should remain to our north.
Tuesday and Wednesday: No real change as we enter Tuesday into
Wednesday with likely some murkier skies, mainly west of I-29,
and quiet conditions. Temperatures at 850 mb sneak up for Tuesday
and thus afternoon surface highs also push more into the mid to
upper 80s, even some lower 90s by midweek.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Thursday and Friday: Upper level ridge axis becomes centered
overhead by the later half of the work week and should help to keep
temperatures well above normal for Thursday. Surface front leaks
into central SD with convection possible along and behind it. At
this time, don`t suspect any of this precip gets further east than
the James Valley through Thursday night. Temperatures Friday will be
dependent on cloud cover, convective debris from overnight and how
far/fast the previously mentioned front progresses through the
daytime hours. Nonetheless, later Friday into the first half of
Friday night may ultimately feature our best precipitation chances
through the period. Shear ahead of the boundary may limit any severe
potential with better post-frontal shear then tandem with less
favorable instability profiles.
Saturday and Sunday: Surface high again temporarily established
behind departing mid/upper level wave into the weekend with a return
to quiet conditions. Saturday`s fairly comfortable temperatures may
again be replaced by warmer values back in the mid 80s to lower 90s
by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Canadian
wildfire smoke streams southward through the region overnight and
into Tuesday, mainly west of the Interstate 29 corridor tonight.
Winds will be light and westerly overnight, becoming more
northwesterly Tuesday.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...BP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
521 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
19Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated large upper
level low near the UT/NV border with apparent short wave trough
lifting out of southern Colorado. At the surface trough axis
extended from south central CO northeast into the southern CWA.
Main forecast concerns will center around thunderstorm potential
for the next 36 hours and associated impacts.
With short wave trough providing forcing for large scale ascent
and an airmass that will be relatively unstable with minimal
heating, expect to see an increase in thunderstorms through the
next few hours along western and southern borders which will
gradually fill in overnight as trough lifts to the north. Small
window for severe storms across eastern Colorado as shear
sufficient for organized cells/supercells although cloud cover may
limit how much destabilization occurs. Regardless of the severe
weather threat, slow storm motion, ample background moisture and a
deep warm layer will all support efficient rain processes and
potential for heavy rain in spots. Given the current soil
conditions and flash flood guidance being modestly low, flash
flood watch is well supported. Finding an area to focus
precipitation a bit difficult at this time, although think
aforementioned surface trough may aid in organization of
precipitation.
Trough will advance north overnight, but may actually get blocked
by ridge axis to the north of the area. Flow aloft will force
system southward tomorrow and with a similar weakly capped airmass
in place expect to see thunderstorms develop again tomorrow
afternoon. Heavy rain threat will remain, but flooding threat will
remain closely tied to what happens tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
The active pattern looks to continue through the long-term, with
excessive rainfall seeming like the biggest risk.
Zonal flow will dominate the middle of the workweek with the sub
tropical jet stream setting up to our south. This will allow any mid-
level shortwaves or surfaces boundaries to produce showers and
storms. CAPE does look to be able to reach around 1000 J/kg these
days and PWATS through Wednesday look to remain around 0.8 - 1
inches. Thursday, PWATS could climb up to 1.3 inches in the
southeastern portions of the CWA. The ingredient that will limit
storm potential around this time will be forcing as there are no
organized fronts showing up in guidance.
Around Thursday, a ridge begins to build into the Great Plains. This
will bring in some southwesterly flow and potentially create a
stronger dry line at the surface for storms to fire off of in the
afternoon and evening hours. PWATS for the eastern parts of the CWA
look to range from 1 to 1.3 inches. GEFS is showing a 850 mb lee low
forming sometime near 0Z Friday that could serve as a decent
forcing mechanism to start some storms, however, confidence is
moderately low this lee low will last long enough to get where the
moisture is.
Near 0Z Saturday, a low pressure system from the Pacific Northwest
begins to move into the Northern Plains and breaks down the ridge.
To what extent is still a big question. If a well organized synoptic
low forms in the lee of the Rockies, as the GFS is showing, this
could be our best day for organized convection. After 0Z Saturday,
guidance varies wildly once again. Afternoon showers looks possible
throughout the remainder of the long-term.
A warming trend is generally expected throughout the period, minus
Friday when some clouds could cool us down again. We will start off
the period with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and by next Monday,
mid 80s to low 90s are looking possible. Low temperatures follow a
similar trend, starting off in the lower 50s but gradually warming
into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 514 PM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023
At KGLD...cluster of showers and thunderstorms will move over the
terminal early this evening and persist through about 06z before
finally weakening. Visibility reductions in rain and the
occasional thunderstorm to IFR will be possible. Overnight,
ceilings will be slow to improve and fog may also develop towards
sunrise with the moist conditions. Only slow improvement to flight
categories is expected Tuesday morning before returning to VFR
Tuesday afternoon.
At KMCK...VFR expected to prevail through this evening with the
area of rain remaining west of the terminal. A few showers might
eventually reach the area overnight, as well as lowered ceilings
and possible fog towards sunrise. Slow improvement will occur
Tuesday morning before returning to VFR Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ013-027-028-041-042.
CO...Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ091-092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
A few light rain showers will develop from this evening into
Tuesday morning, primarily north of I-74. Expect isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, along with
gusty west winds. Otherwise, gradually warming temperatures are
forecast through Thursday. The next chance for widespread rain
arrives this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Light rain showers associated with a shortwave over NE
Iowa/northern IL have developed in northern portions of the
forecast area, mainly I-74 northward, west of I-55. No evidence so
far of measurable rainfall, although up to a tenth of an inch was
noted not far away in Quad Cities area observations. Have updated
PoPs to bring rain chances in a bit earlier than previously
forecast based on radar trends, but overall this feature looks
well on track, slowly tracking eastward, with scattered light
showers and virga from I-74 northward. Very dry low level air,
with dewpoints in the lower 40s currently, will continue to
inhibit any substantial rain reaching the ground. Otherwise, lows
look on track to reach the mid 50s overnight, and a breezy west to
southwest wind will continue overnight.
37
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
This afternoon`s surface analysis shows central Illinois between a
surface high centered over the central/southern Plains and lower
pressure to the northeast, maintaining northwesterly to westerly
winds. At least a pair of short wave troughs will rotate around a
closed low centered over the Great Lakes from this evening into
Tuesday. Mid-level clouds and a few light showers associated with
a 700 mb wind speed max are seen on water vapor imagery from
western WI and eastern IA moving into the northwest corner of IL.
This first round of showers is forecast to affect primarily areas
north of I-74 from early this evening until early Tuesday morning.
These showers should mostly be light, with thunder probability low
but an isolated lightning strike or two not out of the question.
The next short wave trough is forecast to drop down out of WI on
Tuesday afternoon, with a more extensive area of showers and
thunderstorms developing near and along the southern edges of the
aforementioned 700 mb wind speed max.although HRRR forecast
MLCAPE reaches values on the order of a couple hundred J/kg, with
850 mb winds to around 35 kt. Precip chances have been increased
in accordance with coverage in the isolated to scattered category.
An isolated hail report, or even more likely, convectively
enhanced wind gusts may occur. The greatest chances for rainfall >
0.25" on Tuesday afternoon/evening are near/north of I-74, with
spottier rainfall and lesser amounts forecast to the southwest of
that.
Even aside from the convection, a notable increase in wind speeds
is forecast for the period from Tuesday morning through early
Tuesday evening. HREF mean wind gusts in this period are mainly in
the 25-35 mph range, with a bit of an enhancement possibly
occurring just after sunrise on Tuesday in association with the
first short wave trough.
Precipitation chances may hold on into Tuesday evening especially
in far northeastern portions of the ILX forecast area, but are
expected to fade into Wednesday morning with much lighter winds
overnight.
AAT
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Key Messages:
1. Temperatures may quickly warm to near or above 90 F by
Thursday.
2. Next notable chance for widespread rain in central Illinois is
Saturday.
After starting the week with temperatures around 10 F or more
below normal for mid-June, temperatures are forecast to warm
quickly this week, potentially reaching values approaching 90 F
on Thursday. As the Great Lakes closed low moves eastward, a ridge
is forecast to exert stronger influence on central Illinois by
mid-late week, though a short wave trough dropping south out of
Ontario could affect the ILX forecast area yet on Thursday. It`s
probabilities at this point...with probabilities of achieving 90 F
on Thursday highest west of the IL river (around 60-80%) where
influence from the short wave should be least. Probabilities are
closer to the 10-30% range near the Indiana state line. Dew points
Thursday are currently forecast to be in the mid-50s F, so heat
indices shouldn`t be terribly uncomfortable.
The next notable chance for widespread rain occurs on Saturday as
a short wave trough makes its way across the central Plains toward
the Midwest. The probability of precipitable water values > 1.5"
across the ILX forecast area ranges from 20-60% on Saturday
afternoon, increasing from northwest to southeast. Mean forecast rainfall
values are currently around 0.25", with the probability of
rainfall > 0.5" ranging from 30-50%.
AAT
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Primarily VFR conditions are expected over the upcoming 24 hours.
A few showers could approach KPIA-KBMI-KCMI tonight, although this
shower activity is expected to remain primarily to the north.
Another disturbance Tuesday afternoon could bring more showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms for much of the area, although chances
are too small for any precipitation mention as far southwestward
as KSPI. At this point only have VCSH mentioned in other area TAFs
with precipitation/thunderstorm coverage expected to be on the
low side. Winds W 6-12 kts overnight, increasing to 15-20 kts with
gusts around 25 kts after 14Z. West winds around 40 kts at the
2000 ft level should promote a period of low-level wind shear from
around 09Z-13Z tonight.
37
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1045 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2023
The current forecast is on track so have mainly just updated to
add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshened set of zones.
UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2023
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into Kentucky from
the west. This is working to clear the skies early this evening,
but ample moisture remains aloft so that a completely cloud-free
night is not anticipated. Even so, there should be enough
radiational cooling for the development of a decent ridge to
valley temperature split and the formation of valley fog overnight
- becoming locally dense. Currently, temperatures are running in
the upper 60s to lower 70s most places, though a few mid 60s are
noted in the sheltered spots. Meanwhile, amid west to northwest
winds of 10 mph or so, dewpoints are in the low to mid 50s. Have
updated the forecast mainly to take out the last of the PoPs and
also to fine tune the fog into dawn. Did also include the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These updates have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2023
A cold front associated with a low pressure system spinning over the
Great Lakes continues to progress eastward towards the Atlantic
Coast this afternoon. This low will be the main influence for our
weather during the short term as short wave impulses rotate around
the western and southern periphery of the low across the Midwest
and through the Ohio Valley.
Have seen some decent breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon as
drier air continues to advect into eastern Kentucky. A sampling
of sounding data over the area shows a dry layer of subsidence at
around 10K feet, and a relatively deep and moist boundary layer
below that level. Regional satellite shows a substantial CU field
over the region still with a bit of enhancement to the CU
currently passing through northeastern portions of eastern
Kentucky. This would explain why the hrrr and short term guidance
suggested the potential of some isolated to widely scattered
shower activity late this afternoon across that same area. Thus
carried isolated showers via a pre-period in the zones for the
late this afternoon. Activity should dissipate by around sunrise
if not sooner.
After a widespread soaking rain, expected fog to be an issue
tonight. However, guidance is quite optimistic as drier air
continues to advect into the region overnight into Tuesday. Fairly
confident we will see enough clearing that there will be some fog
eventually overnight, particularly across the far east-southeast,
and in some of the more sheltered areas located within area
valleys. The challenge is how much clearing will we realize and
in turn how much fog will actually develop. With such a deep,
moist boundary layer (more used to seeing post frontal subsidence
inversions at around 5k feet), radiative cooling at the top of
the layer is considerably higher, thus possibly lowering any
potential for widespread dense fog at the surface. Have passed on
concerns to the incoming shift and will continue to monitor.
Primary vort lobe or short wave rounds the base of the Great Lakes
low pressure system Tuesday. This combined with some wrap around
moisture will reintroduce the threat of rain for mainly our
northern zones by Tuesday afternoon, with the threat gradually
spreading further south by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Some minor instability, MUCAPES of up to 500 J/kg and effective
shear of 30+ kts will keep the threat of some thunder alive in the
forecast as well.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2023
The period begins with a closed circulation spinning over the
southern New England. While that low is in place, a perturbation is
forecast to wrap around within the flow. At the surface, surface low
will track through the Ohio Valley into the Allegheny Plateau which
in turn will bring a cold front through the Commonwealth. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible but the severe weather threat
looks to be largely limited. Once FROPA occurs, surface high
pressure is expected to build into the region with warming
temperatures. Isolated diurnal thunderstorms may be possible
Thursday afternoon.
High pressure unfortunately will be short-lived as a weak wave is
expected to move through the closed circulation that`s forecast to
remain over New England. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
will be possible again Friday afternoon. The active period continues
into the weekend as another shortwave trough is forecast to develop
off the lee of the Rockies. Through the day Friday, leeside
cyclogenesis is expected to take place and the surface low will
gradually track eastward toward the Bluegrass State. Models are in
agreement that the low`s movement will be relatively slow through
the weekend but forecast QPF appears relatively low. However, with
the ground being saturated, some hydro issues may be possible;
especially if widespread thunderstorm activity materializes. The
surface low is expected to eject out of the region late Sunday but
shower and thunderstorm activity is progged to linger as models
suggest another shortwave will bring another round of showers and
storms through the day Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2023
Drier air is being ushered into eastern Kentucky on account of
steady 5-10 kt west to northwest winds. Much of the cloud cover
is now clearing out with the lose of daytime heating and dry air
advection. However, after a widespread soaking rain - especially
south, expect fog to be an issue tonight. This is despite
guidance being is on the more optimistic side. Still confident we
will see enough sustained clearing that there will be some fog
eventually overnight, particularly across the far east-southeast.
The challenge remains as to how much of this will ultimately
impact area terminals, if any. At present, thinking is the KLOZ
and KSME have the best chance of seeing impacts. For this reason
have included a short period of MVFR visibilities during the pre-
dawn hours at KLOZ and KSME. Winds will generally be out of the
west-northwest at between 5 and 10 kts, but slackening a bit
tonight as they start to back increasingly out of the southwest
into the day, Tuesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...RAY/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
950 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Push back on evening pops to late eve/overnight initiation.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Canceled the remainder of SVR Watch 277 for CenLA Parishes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
The short wave energy is still on route for our overnight event
with the HRRR looking for a start after midnight and especially
the hours that follow. The convection that fired up earlier in
the daytime heat has all fallen apart due to arriving too quickly
on the heels of our afternoon complex. We are still under a
slightly subsident influence in the wake of earlier push. However,
a few big storms are firing up for the I-20 corridor, now
entering the DFW metro area. So it does still look like another
good push unfolding in the coming hours.
The SPC still maintains a Slight Risk for us over NE TX, SW AR
and NW LA on the day one update a couple of hours ago. And with
that a potential Watch at some point. Large hail remains the
primary threat, but organized bows may certainly have a wind
threat as well. We will be monitoring the evolution of this event
as we update with new model runs later tonight. Meanwhile, all is
quiet here for now with a nice range of 70s, both air and dew
points. Our sounding tonight shows brisk midlevel westerly flow at
the freezing level and slight more WNW flow above 500mb. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
A weak surface boundary to linger across the region
through Saturday allowing for light winds areawide and a chance for
widely scattered afternoon convection mainly along and north of I-
20. Aloft, an upper-level ridge across Mexico into central Texas to
strengthen allowing for subsident northwest flow across the
ArkLaTex. Weak disturbances along the northern periphery of the
ridge, could allow for a few isolated instances for strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours across the region each
day.
Upper-ridge to become firmly established across south Texas late in
the weekend producing steadily increasing high temperatures along
with suppressed rain chances through the weekend into early next
week. High temperatures by Sunday and Monday to climb into the
upper 90s to near 100 degrees. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR for now under anvils from nearby
N TX storms. These will keep to our N, but KTXK may see some
shwrs before sunset. Overnight an impulse in the fast flow aloft
will ramp up convection, movg down into our I-20 corridor and
likely to affect many of our terminals 09-15Z. This will be the
main push, but pop- up TS may linger diurnally on outflows. The
NE winds are slacking now and will back to E/SE by daybreak,
before and shifting to S for the day. More midweek TS, then drier.
/24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 88 71 91 / 30 40 50 40
MLU 71 90 71 90 / 40 40 60 40
DEQ 65 81 66 88 / 80 70 70 40
TXK 68 84 69 89 / 70 70 70 40
ELD 66 84 66 88 / 60 70 80 40
TYR 71 89 72 92 / 30 40 40 20
GGG 70 88 71 91 / 30 40 40 20
LFK 73 95 73 96 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
626 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Cold front has sagged all the way into the Concho Valley and
Heartland this afternoon. Temperatures along and ahead of the
front well in the 90s to near 100, while readings north of the
front are mainly in the 70s. MOdels continue to show isolated
convection along and north of the boundary with storm likely to
become severe and shift east pretty quickly. Visible satellite
showing some cu development trying to take place, but it may still
be 22 or 23Z before we see any deep convection take off.
HRRR shows additional convection trying to develop late this
evening or into the early morning hours and this will need to be
monitored.
As for temperatures, front will still have an affect on
temperatures on Tuesday, with readings in the lower 90s across
I-20 to near 100 again across the Concho Valley south into the
Edwards Plateau.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
More focused on the short term, but all indications are that the
summer like heat is still on track for mid to late week as the
upper level ridge builds into the area. Models have been
consistent in forecasting highs above 105 across the Concho Valley
and not far from that across the remainder of the are area. If
this works out, then Heat Advisory/Warning criteria will be met
and heat products will need to be issued.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all
sites. However, we will have some severe TSRA to deal with that
may impact the KBBD site through the next few hours. Will update
the TAF if necessary. KABI will have some MVFR ceilings for
another few hours before scattering out to VFR. Otherwise, may
see some brief periods of MVFR ceilings at KABI, KBBD, and
especially KJCT early Tuesday morning through 15Z or 16Z, after
which all sites will improve to VFR with south to southwest winds
around 10 knots at most sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 67 92 67 92 / 30 10 0 0
San Angelo 72 101 67 103 / 20 0 0 0
Junction 73 103 72 105 / 10 0 0 0
Brownwood 70 97 68 98 / 50 10 10 0
Sweetwater 66 94 67 95 / 20 0 0 0
Ozona 74 102 69 103 / 10 0 0 0
Brady 72 97 70 99 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
207 PM PDT Mon Jun 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible the next couple of days as a weak area of low pressure
aloft lingers over the region. Best chances will be across the
higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and southern Sierra
Nevada. A slow warming trend will commence through late week with
temperatures near normal over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...So far, strongest thunderstorm cores have been
over Clark and eastern Lincoln Counties. Red Rock Canyon precip.
gauges reported around a third of an inch. Otherwise, amounts have
been less than a tenth of an inch.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to fire
throughout the rest of this afternoon. Will need to keep a close eye
on storms over southwest Utah drifting west toward Lincoln County.
Latest SBCAPE indicates these storms will be moving into higher
SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/Kg. HRRR has been consistent showing
the potential of a few storms persisting through midnight in parts
of Esmeralda and northern Inyo Counties. Elsewhere, the showers and
thunderstorms will dissipate in the evening.
Upper low which was initialized over southern Nevada this morning
progged to shift east into the Four Corners region Tuesday. As this
happens, all models depict a weak trough left hanging back over the
Southwest. Drier, more stable air will slowly shift from south to
north across the Mojave Desert lessening precip. chances by
Wednesday. Ribbon of moisture and instability located with a
deformation axis across central Nevada and the southern Sierra will
likely support showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
As heights rise through the week, temperatures will return to more
seasonable values over the weekend. Guidance has been `waffling`
back and forth on if Las Vegas will hit the first official 100. 13Z
NBM has lowered that probability to 23%, down from 38% off the 07Z
cycle.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Generally speaking, winds are expected
to be from a southerly direction through the remainder of the
afternoon and overnight. The primary concern is the potential for
strong outflow winds from storms that develop through sunset. This
could result in rapid changes in wind direction and speed across the
valley. Storm activity is expected to diminish this evening.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Thunderstorm development will continue for southern
Nevada as well as portions of eastern California and northwestern
Arizona. The primary concern for TAF sites is the potential for
strong outflow winds bringing a rapid increase in wind speeds with
erratic wind direction. Outside of storms, winds increase out of the
south to southwest this afternoon in the Colorado River Valley and
Las Vegas Valley.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Salmen
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter