Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/11/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
901 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Forecast is working out nicely and no major updates are planned
for this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
A shortwave rotating south around an upper-level low across the
Great Lakes is helping to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development across the southeastern and southwestern CWA, in a still
moist environment when considering the whole column (PWATs still 1"
plus) despite northerly sfc winds behind the sfc cold front.
However, current mid-level water vapor loop shows much drier air now
moving south across the ND/SD border. With time, this drier airmass
will spread south across the rest of South Dakota. Until then, slow-
moving showers and storms will continue into the early evening per
the latest CAMs, the strongest of which with the potential to
produce small hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rain (poor
environment for severe weather).
Skies become clear from north to south tonight into Sunday morning,
as sfc high pressure takes control with a much drier airmass.
However, the RAP Smoke model does show a pocket of smoke from now
through ~12z Sunday which could make for hazy/milky skies (in
addition to some possible near-surface smoke this evening with minor
visibility reductions). Temperatures Sunday will remain seasonable
to slightly below normal on Sunday with highs in the 70s, as the
Great Lakes upper-level low`s influence remains. The coldest night
of the week will be Sunday night, with continued light winds and
good radiational cooling.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Monday morning, a low pressure system will still be off to our east,
centered over MI. A ridge moves in behind the low by Wednesday
morning. Models are hinting that a shortwave embedded in that ridge
will move across our area Thursday. A stronger ridge builds in from
the west for the weekend and the start of next work week. Down at
700mb we see a very dry start to the week with winds generally from
the north. Once that high pressure starts to move in, winds become
lighter and moisture moves in from the north and west. Drier air
moves in from the south with west to southwest winds for the
weekend. Looking now at 850mb, a low level trough looks to move over
our area Thursday which will bring some moisture and a chance for
precipitation and storms to the region. 925mb tells a similar story,
dry air to start the week with moisture moving in for the second
half of the work week.
As mentioned above, there is a chance for some precipitation later
in the week as a shortwave trough passes over the area. Models still
aren`t in agreement as to where the precipitation will fall. The GFS
has the most precip falling over eastern SD Thursday afternoon
through the overnight hours. However, the ECMWF and Canadian models
have the precip falling mostly over western SD. This is still 5 days
out so there is time for models to come to more of an agreement.
Kept slight (15 to 20 percent) pops.
Skies could continue to be hazy for the first half of the week with
northerly upper level winds. Smoke is not expected to reach the
surface during this time. Expect a warming trend through the week
with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Winds are expected
to be light through Wednesday. Winds could gust up to 20 mph
Thursday and Friday with the passing of the trough.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR skies/vsbys are expected overnight.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1031 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers and storms throughout the day and tonight across
our region. No severe threat is expected.
- Cooler temperatures Tomorrow and Monday with a Slight Chance (20-30%)
of Rain in Central Wisconsin Monday night.
- Possible elevated fire weather risk with a building ridge and
drier air mass next week.
Precipitation Today and Tonight:
Ongoing precipitation that has formed along a frontal zone
associated with the upper-level shortwave progressing through our
region is trending south and southeastward the rest of this
afternoon. Going later into the day the CAMS generally want to hold
off on the bulk of most showers and storms developing later
particularly in central and southern portions of our region. One
main issue the precipitation is going to have to overcome is the
abundance of drier air near the surface which most short-term
guidance tends to hold onto until past sunset. This will reduce the
likelihood of more intense convection over our region as we will
have lost most of our diurnal instability with MUCAPE being fairly
low (100-200 J/kg) by the time saturation is achieved in most areas.
As a result, there will be no threat of severe weather with
convection today and tonight.
Both the 10.17 HRRR QPF fields and 10.12 EC ensemble guidance tend
on the drier side in terms of amounts for our region with highest
confidence with amounts in the one tenth to one quarter of an inch
range for most areas. Due to the convective nature of this event
isolated higher amounts could be possible.
Sunday and Monday:
After the passage of the boundary today and tonight, a general
northerly flow pattern will take hold for the remainder of the
weekend providing cooler and pleasant conditions in the wake of this
shortwave. Daytime highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s with minimal sky cover throughout the day. The 10.09 RAP
Vertically-Integrated smoke fields try to work a band of smoke
behind the boundary into our region Sunday but it tends to disperse
as it approaches the bulk of our region.
As the shortwave progresses along a positive axial tilt through the
Great Lakes region a fairly robust upper-level closed low forms
which breaks off from the wave with more model consensus wanting to
keep its development region in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. The
precise development of this low will determine our conditions going
into Monday as small shifts in the position of the low could change
our conditions for our Wisconsin locations on Monday. Current mid-
range guidance wants to have a region of stratiform precipitation
over eastern Wisconsin that tries to push into central Wisconsin
later into the evening. Currently, increased sky cover, rain
chances, and cooler temperatures seem to be a possibility east of
the Mississippi River, particularly in central Wisconsin. However,
some uncertainty still remains due to the prevalence of substantial
surface dry air hinted in some mid-range NAM sounding guidance for
our region.
Rest of Next Week:
As the week progresses past Monday, a familiar warming and drying
trend returns for the remainder of the week with an upper-level
ridge building into our region returning a northwesterly flow
bringing warm advection and an elevated fire risk due to continued
dry conditions through mid-week. This will likely worsen the drought
over our region as the weekend and early week rains will not do much
to reduce drought conditions over most of our region. There is some
indication that moisture tries to reach the crest of the ridge and
increase our precipitation chances going into late-week however,
confidence is low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
A cold front is advancing southward will pass through the
terminals right around 06 TAF issuance time. As the cold front
moves south, expect a period of MVFR ceilings overnight (50 to
60% chance), but should become VFR again by 12Z Sunday. There is
a small chance (30%) for MVFR ceilings to linger into Sunday
morning at LSE, but those chances drop by 15Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1026 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected through most of the day Sunday. The
next system moves in late Sunday, bringing much needed rainfall
and a rainy start to the work week. A small dry slot moves
through on Tuesday. Then, an upper level low brings more showers
mid to late week. Temperatures trend warmer through Sunday, but
cool down again next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1025 PM update...
Showers and isolated weak storms have mostly dissipated this
evening and dry/quiet weather conditions are expected through
the rest of tonight and most of the day Sunday. A slight
expansion of the patchy fog potential has been published to the
forecast for Sunday morning. Also, morning lows on Sunday have
been lowered by a couple degrees. Otherwise, the forecast
remains unchanged.
350 PM Update
A weak shortwave is evident on the latest water vapor loop
crossing west-central NY and PA at this time. Visible satellite
shows some building cumulus over the area, but latest mesoanalysis
is only showing around 250 J/kg of MLCAPE. With that said, continued
to advertise isolated shower and storm potential through sunset;
mainly from the Twin Tiers south across all of NE PA. This was
more in line with the 12z 3km NAM, as the latest HRRR is still
not showing much if any shower activity for the rest of today.
Latest KBGM radar loop as of 330 PM is showing isolated activity
beginning to pop up in the above mentioned areas. Any showers
or storms look to be fast moving and brief. There is around
25-30 kts of effective layer shear along a corridor from near
Binghamton south into the Poconos; but at this time any organized
or strong storms see unlikely. Outside of this activity the
rest of the area will remain partly sunny and warm into this
evening, with temperatures in the 70s for most.
After sunset, the isolated showers dissipate and end. Overnight will
be mostly clear with a chance for patchy valley fog toward daybreak;
especially the Susquehanna and Delaware river valleys. Winds become
light and variable and overnight lows are forecast to dip down into
the upper 40s to mid-50s, which is close to average.
After the patchy morning fog burns off Sunday will feature partly
sunny skies for much of the day. There will be scattered to broken
mid and high level clouds around out ahead of the next approaching
weather system. By afternoon, mid level moisture does begin
increasing along a slow moving warm frontal boundary which looks to
be draped north of our CWA. This may allow for more clouds and even
some scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm to develop over
the Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley region...PoPs for
these were held in the 20-40% range...and even an isolated shower or
storm can`t be ruled out down to the NY Southern Tier. Otherwise,
winds turn southerly between 5-10 mph and this will help to bring
much warmer temperatures to the area. Used a blend of the
NBM/NBM50th and BCCONSALL for forecast highs...this gave highs in
the low to mid-80s for most locations...with upper 80s to near 90
possible in the Wyoming Valley. Surface dew points hold in the 50s
so it not feel overly humid.
Sunday night will see the next frontal system slowly approach from
the west. The southerly flow will continue to pump increasing
moisture (Pwats 1.5") and clouds over the area. Eventually chances
for showers increase, becoming likely after midnight into the
predawn hours along and west of I-81. There were still minor model
differences in the exact timing of this incoming rain. Rainfall
amounts are low before daybreak, less than a quarter inch. Remaining
mild with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 PM Update...
Rain will continue to move east to be across the entire area
Monday morning, then exiting Monday night. The models are
trending a little slower for the rainfall start. The rain will
be ahead of an occluded front and large closed low over the
Midwest. Strong southerly winds will bring abundant moisture
into the area pushing PWATs over 1.6". Dewpoints rise into the
60s. Weak instability and decent shear will allow thunderstorms
to form especially in NEPA and the western Catskills. Most
locations will get around an inch of rain but localized area
could have more. High temperatures will be from the upper 60s to
the mid 70s.
The upper level low will move slowly east into the upper Great
Lakes through Tuesday. A dry slot will be over our area behind
the front and ahead of low late Monday night into at least
Monday morning. For sections of the east the dry period could
last all of Tuesday. After lows from the mid 40s to the lower
50s, highs get into the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM Update...
The center of the cut off low settles over CNY for off and on
showers Wednesday then fills some but moves little until Friday.
The low exits into northern New England and southern Quebec
but remains there through the weekend. Short waves rotating
around the upper level low will set off showers Thursday
afternoon and evening and again on Friday. Depending on the
model Saturday could feature more showers.
Temperatures will be on the cool side of average. Highs will be
from the upper 60s to the 70s. Lows will be in the 40s and
50s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are present across all terminals this evening. A
few scattered rain showers are moving across NEPA but should
steer clear of AVP and dissipate in the next hour.
Tonight`s forecast is a little tricky at BGM and ELM. A weak
ridge is expected to nose into the Twin Tiers tonight, which
should bring calm winds and keep surface boundary mixing low.
Model guidance is hinting at a chance for patchy fog overnight,
which could bring IFR conditions. Diving deeper into the setup,
it looks like without rain showers impacting either of these
terminals today, it is going to be hard to get fog to develop.
The best chance will be at ELM because of its proclivity for fog
during this time of year when a ridge is overhead. Current lows
are expected to be around 50, but for fog to develop, lows will
have to fall into the mid 40s and it looks like that will be a
little too far of a fall. Because of this low confidence, tempo
MVFR vis was included in the TAF for a few hours in the morning.
It is expected that with the next TAF set, fog chances should be
more clear.
BGM is also in the same boat regarding a lack of evening rain
showers moistening up the atmosphere and temps having to fall
too far to reach fog chances. There is however a chance for a
"sunrise surprise" as fog that develops in the valley lifts up
the hill and reaches the airport right around sunrise. MVFR vis
was included here and as confidence was not high enough to drop
it all the way to IFR.
SYR/RME/ITH/AVP are all expected to be VFR through the TAF
period with increasing cloudiness tomorrow morning as the next
weather system moves into the area from the west.
Outlook...
Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions likely with numerous
showers, periods of rain, patchy fog and isolated thunderstorms
expected.
Monday night and Tuesday: Becoming mainly VFR; a chance for
patchy fog.
Tuesday night through Thursday: Possible restrictions with
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms around under an
upper level low pressure system.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/MJM
NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...JTC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
845 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.UPDATE...
The shower activity has decreased across the area this evening
with only a few scattered, light rain showers lingering over
south- central Montana. These showers will continue to dissipate
over the next few hours with drier air pushing in from the
northeast, as evident in water vapor imagery. The big winner for
precipitation today was Sheridan County, WY along the Bighorn
Mountains and its foothills where 1 to 2 inches of rain fell.
Because of these totals, a Flood Advisory for areas along and near
Little Goose and Big Goose Creeks has been issued through midnight
tonight. Future conditions may require this to be extended.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast area looks to be in good
shape. Outside of precipitation, we are still expecting upslope
stratus and perhaps localized patchy fog to form over the western
half of our forecast area this evening. Arends
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday Night...
Showers are moving westward thru Billings at this time and are
becoming heaviest along our western and southern foothills. To the
east, skies have largely cleared from Miles City to Baker as we
advect much drier air from the northeast. In fact, latest pwat is
analyzed to be only 0.60" in Fallon County, and there are barely
any cumulus per the drying. Water vapor imagery shows the much
drier air over northeast MT and ND, while deep moisture is being
squeezed along the WY/MT/ID borders.
While showers (w/ a few embedded t-storms) will be heaviest along
our foothills over the next few hours, the risk of rain heavy
enough to cause flash flooding is lessening...and should end by
around 00z. Some lighter shower activity will linger into the
evening, especially in upslope areas, but otherwise we should see
precip slowly taper off thru sunset. Late tonight and early
Sunday, expect upslope stratus and perhaps localized fog to form
over the west half of our forecast area. Recent HRRR runs are
becoming more suggestive of fog/stratus after 06Z.
Much of our region will be dry tomorrow while under the influence
of dry/stable upper level high over southern SK and northeast MT.
Pwats in our northeast (i.e. Baker) should be no more than a half
inch per ensemble means. Axis of moisture and instability will
exist along our western and southern mountains/foothills however,
and it is in these areas that we should see diurnal showers and
t-storms. Wind shear will again be very weak, of course, but there
should be enough moisture (pwats ~0.80") and instability
(500-1000 j/kg) for locally moderate to heavy rain. Billings seems
to be on the northern/eastern extent of t-storm potential and
cannot rule out isolated late day convection here. Sunday night
will be dry after sunset.
Temps will be as seasonable as they come...w/ lows in the mid 40s
to mid 50s, and highs Sunday mostly 70s.
JKL
Monday through Saturday...
Some changes are coming as the blocking pattern over the CONUS
finally breaks down next week.
Monday and Tuesday will be similar days, with diurnal showers and
t-storms mainly over the mountains and foothills, while our
northeast stays dry under the influence of strong high aloft. High
temps should reach the 70s to lower 80s.
A Pacific shortwave (the first in as long as we can remember)
arrives Wednesday, bringing height falls and a good chance of
t-storms...w/ pwats briefly increasing to near an inch again. This
appears to be a potential severe weather day as bulk shear will
increase w/ the approaching trof...though whether any risk is just
in our east or perhaps our entire cwa will depend on the exact
timing of the wave and cold front. However it pans out, Wednesday
is a day to watch in terms of potentially strong to severe
storms. Temps should reach the mid 70s to mid 80s prefrontally.
Zonal flow and a bit lower heights for the second half of the
week will yield slight cooling (temps in 70s to near 80) along
with a lower chance of convection...though cannot rule out at
least a slight chance (20%) of t-storms each day. The greater risk
of t-storms may return next weekend as another deeper Pacific
trof moves inland.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
Isolated showers will roam the western half of the forecast area
the rest of the night, possibly affecting KBIL, KSHR and KLVM. In
addition, areas of low clouds or fog may also affect the western
routes through 15Z Sunday. Drier conditions will persist in the
east (KMLS) providing VFR conditions. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will linger in the foothills
and over the mountains Sunday. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/075 053/076 056/079 057/079 053/072 052/075 054/078
32/T 24/T 32/T 26/T 53/T 22/T 23/T
LVM 052/072 052/072 052/075 053/073 046/070 046/072 048/076
25/T 37/T 55/T 36/T 43/T 23/T 35/T
HDN 053/077 051/079 053/081 055/081 053/074 051/077 053/080
31/B 13/T 22/T 16/T 53/T 22/T 23/T
MLS 053/077 052/080 055/083 058/085 056/075 053/078 056/081
00/U 00/U 11/U 03/T 42/T 22/T 22/T
4BQ 051/074 050/078 052/080 055/085 055/075 052/077 054/082
00/B 01/U 11/U 13/T 53/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 047/075 047/079 050/082 054/085 054/075 051/078 053/081
00/U 00/U 01/U 02/T 43/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 049/072 049/075 049/077 050/078 049/072 047/075 049/078
23/T 26/T 33/T 15/T 54/T 33/T 23/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
920 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the North Carolina coast will remain
in control of our weather through early Sunday. A cold front
slowly moves southeast across the area Sunday afternoon through
early Monday, with low pressure tracking across the area along
that front Sunday night. Low pressure will slow and then linger
over the Great Lakes region through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Minor adjustments were made to the temperatures and winds to
reflect current observations across the area. The remainder of
the forecast is on track.
Previous Discussion...
Continued dry weather to start the near term as lingering
surface high pressure centered off the Southeast Coast controls
our weather beneath confluent flow aloft. High clouds will
continue to stream in tonight, otherwise it will be another
pleasant one with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
The take home message is that the longest completely dry
stretch in Cleveland (and across much of the area) in this
meteorologist`s lifetime is indeed going to come to an end as
the combination of a cold front, developing wave of low pressure
along it, and brief surge of deep moisture combine to bring
100% rain chances to our entire county warning area. Rain
chances will peak late Sunday into Sunday night from west to
east. What`s less certain is where the heaviest swath of QPF
tracks and how much rain falls in that swath. Minimal to no
concern for any impactful water issues or severe weather. After
a warm and dry start to Sunday temperatures will level off and
fall later in the day due to a combination of evaporative
cooling as rain arrives and the south-southeastward progression
of the cold front across the area. Before that happens, highs
are expected to range from the upper 70s in our western/
southwestern counties to the low to perhaps mid 80s farther
north and east. Slowed down the initial onset of rain just a bit
and boosted highs for Sunday slightly as well. Activity begins
tapering from west to east Sunday night, with lows falling into
the upper 50s/lower 60s.
Delving a bit more into the meteorology, a broad trough in the
polar branch of the jet stream is evident on water vapor imagery
from Hudson Bay to North Dakota this afternoon. This will
amplify while settling into the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday
night, pushing a cold front south-southeast across our area late
Sunday morning through early Monday. At the same time, a
convectively-enhanced shortwave in the sub-tropical branch of
the jet stream is currently located near the Kansas/Missouri
boarder and will lift east-northeast across the Ohio Valley
Sunday into Sunday evening. A plume of deeper moisture is in
place ahead of this shortwave and will attempt to make it into
our region ahead of the advancing front. Divergent regions of
the jet streaks associated with these shortwaves will couple
across the southern Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley Sunday into
Sunday night, which will result in the development and gradual
deepening of low pressure along the cold front. The passage of
this wave of low pressure across our area late Sunday into
Sunday night will lead to the front`s south-southeast progress
slowing for several hours. This will occur as jet support,
moisture advection and frontogenesis maximize, leading to a
corridor of more efficient rainfall near where the front gets
hung up. Where this corridor sets up may see 1.00-1.50" of
total rainfall by Monday morning, with some hi-res models
advertising locally higher amounts if convective elements are
involved and intense enough. Amounts will drop off outside of
the narrow corridor, particularly into Northwest Ohio given the
surge of deeper moisture remaining farther south/east.
Guidance from the National Blend of Models (NBM) and Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) shifted the swath of heavier QPF farther
northwest, now stretching across the heart of our area from
southwest to northeast, and increased the magnitude of it
somewhat with 1.00-2.00" in the heavier swath and 0.50-1.00"
elsewhere. However, am concerned that the very dry antecedent
airmass will eat away at the northern extent of the QPF...also
am concerned that upstream convection (especially over the Ohio
Valley on Sunday) will slow moisture return and overturn any
instability advecting in. Experience says that heavier QPF will
be focused closer to the instability and not well north,
something models can struggle with. Suspect that some models
(such as the NAM) are over-doing the strength of the developing
wave of low pressure due to convective feedback. While the
extended HRRR runs can be hit or miss (to be polite), feel like
it may have a better handle on the strength of the wave of low
pressure, placement of the front, and magnitude/placement of QPF
compared to some other hi- res models. All of this said,
tempered the expansion of higher QPF and increase in amounts
somewhat by blending in a fair amount of the previous forecast
with the newer guidance. Have amounts ranging from around 0.50"
in Toledo to 0.75-1.25" from Findlay to Sandusky points east
through Monday morning...could see how that`s too optimistic
across the northwest half of our area, but due to collaboration
concerns couldn`t stray much lower up there. Suspect that we
will struggle to develop enough instability for any kind of
severe threat late Sunday afternoon in our southern counties,
but do still maintain a thunder mention. This rain is needed and
flooding is not expected, though where the heaviest amount falls
some typical nuisance issues may occur in poor-drainage areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Deepening upper low meanders into the Great Lakes in the short term,
with models fairly consistent on a second organized wave of
precipitation Tuesday/Tuesday night. Prior to then, in the wake of
the initial cold front, will temporarily lose the low/mid level
moisture as well as the instability due to an inversion off the
boundary layer. Moisture returns in the counterclockwise flow aloft
with strengthening deformation with the evolution of another cold
front rotating through the flow. Very slow forward progression of
the surface and upper low results in the front getting dragged into
the CWA from the northwest with a fair amount of residence time
expected for Tuesday into Tuesday night. High POPs due to the model
consensus for this period. 546dkm low aloft and 850mb temperatures
keep high temperatures below 70F in most cases Tuesday. Some thunder
will be possible Tuesday with the modest instability materializing
from the cold pool aloft. Cold front should ultimately work its way
south of the CWA border by the end of the Tuesday night period,
taking with it the bulk of the POPs.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Yet another trough axis drops in from the northwest as broad
cyclonic flow aloft continues to dominate the synoptic/long wave
patter. Looking at another cold front Thursday into early Thursday
night, but for now there is some lower confidence on how this system
will evolve. This should be a relatively quick mover through the
southern Great Lakes. Weak ridging follows as the flow aloft
attempts to become more zonal. This will still result in some
instability for the end of the week with the potential for largely
isolated showers. Again, given the presence of low pressure aloft,
no significant warm ups expected and will see mainly 70s through the
long term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue across the area through Sunday
morning. By late morning, rain showers associated with an
approaching cold front will begin to impact the western
terminals, gradually spreading east into the evening hours.
Conditions will gradually diminish to MVFR in the afternoon,
but near 00Z all terminals expect KERI and KYNG will drop to IFR
conditions. During the afternoon hours and after this TAF
period, ceilings will continue to lower to around 800 feet. In
addition, visibilities within the showers will certainly be
MVFR, but in the heaviest showers would not be surprised to see
2SM or less IFR distances. Confidence in where these IFR
visibilities will be is quite low, so opted to keep visibilities
a bit higher. These IFR conditions will persist through the end
of the TAF period and continue into the next period, eventually
improving from west to east on Monday as the low pressure and
associated cold front exit to the east.
A lake breeze will continue to impact the direction of wind for
KCLE and KERI for a bit longer before all winds become south-
southwesterly at 3-6 knots tonight before increasing to 5-12
knots on Sunday ahead of the cold front. Behind the boundary
Sunday evening, winds will back to be from the north-northeast
at 5-12 knots.
Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions remains possible within
showers through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
The passage of the late Sunday/Sunday night low pressure system
brings winds back around to the north and then northwest while
strengthening to 15-25kts. Will be pushing Small Craft Advisory
criteria mainly in the central basin of Lake Erie during this
time with at least 3 to 5 footers expected before wave heights
decrease into Monday afternoon to 2-4ft with a westerly shift
to the winds 10-20kts. Winds become southwest Monday night into
Tuesday 10-20kts with nearshore waves 1-3ft, increasing to
3-5ft in the open water zones. Tuesday night cold front passage
brings winds back around to the northwest Wednesday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
625 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Summary: Dry and somewhat warm.
A thin line of shower activity is presently moving south across
the mid-section of our forecast area as seen on radar. It hasn`t
been generating lightning and is probably only producing enough
rainfall to keep the dust down. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly
flat across the activity, but there is a 1000-1250 MUCAPE axis
that the showers are trying to feed off of though not having much
luck as the weak front that is forcing them slides slowly south.
Guidance doesn`t make much of this line into the afternoon with
the HRRR dissipating it by 01Z just south of its present location.
This same front will cause increased wind gusts this afternoon,
but those will wane into the evening. A Beach Hazards statement
is in effect to cover the strong winds and higher waves and thus
the higher rip current potential with the front this afternoon.
With skies clearing tonight and a fair amount of dry air aloft
with decreasing winds, I would not be surprised to see some frost
in the typical cold spots with the caveat that mainly the rural
areas east of Duluth will be affected as the upper level low
just brushes the eastern side of our forecast area. Opted not to
hoist a Frost Advisory simply due to the marginal conditions and
expected areal coverage. Will hint of this threat in social media
and the HWO.
Continued dry weather ahead with Sunday, Thursday, and Friday
being the driest days. Generally speaking, winds will behave
themselves with typical diurnal oscillations keeping the threat
for Red Flag warnings on the lower side; however, with the
extended period of dry weather fire danger increases daily. There
is no chance for rain until mid week when isolated thunderstorms
are possible here and there which won`t make much of an impact in
our trend towards a drought. Several near-critical fire weather
days are possible this week with low RH`s being the main concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Satellite this evening shows MVFR stratus deck beginning to erode
with clearing skies moving in from the northwest. This trend is
expected to continue through the night with all terminals expected
to return to VFR later this evening. The one pitfall with this
forecast package is the potential for some marine induced low level
clouds to roll into DLH/HYR after midnight. The latest high res
guidance is keeping most of these impacts outside of the terminals
but worth keeping an eye on through the night. A very dry air mass
overtakes the region beginning tomorrow morning with clear skies and
winds out of the NNE.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
All quiet on the marine front after this afternoon`s small craft
advisories expire with only minimal waves and sub-20 knot wind
gusts through the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 68 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
INL 44 72 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 44 72 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 39 67 40 77 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 38 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.
LS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Wolfe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
802 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
...Evening Update with 00Z Aviation Discussion...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Slight adjustments to forecast with emerging trends in short term,
convective-allowing models with tomorrows showers and storms. A
strong moisture pull ahead of a shortwave trough will begin to
pump ample moisture into the region overnight through Sunday
morning. Recent trends in high-res models indicating surprising
consensus of scattered showers and storms in the mid morning along
the I-20 corridor moving from Atlanta to Athens, with a possible
reprieve from more widespread convection through the afternoon.
However, given atmospheric parameters, we believe at least some
scattered storms will be possible across the forecast area
tomorrow, with little confidence on exact placement. Models are
also slowly forming a consensus around a stronger line of storms
pushing through overnight Sunday through Monday morning, along and
ahead of the cold front, with gradual clearing afterwards.
However, with so many factors at play, confidence is lower over
the next 36-48 hours than usual. We know we`ll observe scattered
to numerous storms across the area, but exactly when, where, and
how intense they`ll be will hopefully form a better consensus with
the overnight updates.
Thiem
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Afternoon summer cumulus have begun to develop across the area, but
that is the only weather in town through the afternoon. We have one
last beautiful summer day before weather finally moves in tonight
into tomorrow, beginning what looks to be a pretty wet period for
the CWA through this week. Aloft, the upper level low finally is
beginning to pull away from the eastern CONUS, removing what was our
lovely dry airmass and replacing it with a more humid one. WAA is
already beginning across the CWA and will pick up tonight. Moisture
will increase tonight as a shortwave digs into the SE, providing
additional lift for rainfall and thunderstorms tomorrow.
Rain and storms may get an early start, with an initial round being
progged by models around 7 to 9 am for west Georgia, pushing east
through the morning and afternoon hours. Some instability is noted
for the early morning with MLCAPE values 100-300 J/kg, but with
relatively lower values of shear these storms aren`t likely to reach
severe thresholds. More interesting is what may happen later in the
day into the overnight hours on Sunday. There is a good bit of
uncertainty on how the morning/afternoon round of storms clears the
CWA. Some hires want to keep storms around after, but others (such
as the HRRR) have been hinting at a clearing that allows some
instability to build back in via some heating as well as advection.
If the latter plays out, we could see another stronger round of
storms push into the CWA from the NW and move across the state,
bringing a threat of damaging wind gusts as wind shear will look
a bit better overall. There is some credence to this solution,
given earlier storms may work over atmosphere to a degree, but
HRRR can be a bit underdone with summer convection. Will be
interesting to see if 18Z run sticks with this solution, and if
so, if additional guidance begins to catch on as well.
Lusk
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
The extended forecast will be very unsettled and wet with a chance of
precip every day. An upper level low forms over the Great lakes
bringing troughing through the central plains Sunday before the low
deepens and the trough swings eastward into the the southeast and
Georgia on Monday. This upper level feature equates to a cold front
moving through our area Monday which during this time of year is
expected to provide some level of forcing that could give us more
organized thunderstorms than the normal summertime pop up storms.
The timing is favorable for for severe storms to develop as the
instability will be diurnally driven and the front swinging through
during the daylight hours Monday.
Following the frontal passage the low pressure system is expected to
stall in the Canadian Maritimes and the front is also expected to
stall over central and southern Georgia. This will put us in a
westerly flow pattern with moisture being pumped in from the central
plains. The exact positioning of this front will determine how much
rainfall we get through the end of next week. At this time daily
afternoon into evening rain chances and thunderstorms can be
expected with 7 day total QPF value in the 2"- 4.5" range across the
state. Max temps are expected to stay in the mid 80s for northern
Georgia and the upper 80s for central Georgia. There could be a bit
of variation over the next couple of days depending on where the
frontal system stalls out.
As a result of this stalled frontal boundary and near record max
PWATs (~2 in) expected for this time of year with out a tropical
system in place, WPC has included much of north Georgia in a Day 5
slight to account for the increased rainfall. This essentially means
that showers and storms that form during this time period will be
efficient rainfall producers and could lead to some flooding.
Hernandez/01
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Light SW winds to temporarily turn SE between 02-12Z, becoming SW
tomorrow between 7-12kts. SHRA/TSRA possible throughout the rest
of TAF after 12Z. Trends showing initial wave around 12Z at ATL
sites, SCT/NUM TSRA through the afternoon, then line of SHRA/TSRA
overnight after 02Z. TAF likely to undergo several adjustments
over next 24 hours, with low to medium confidence on precip
timing. Recent signal for MVFR CIGs with moisture push across
most sites between 12-18Z, with primarily VFR through rest of
period.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium on SHRA/TSRA timing after 12Z Sun.
Medium on all other elements after 12Z Sun.
Medium to high on all elements through 12Z Sun.
Thiem
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 64 82 67 84 / 20 60 80 50
Atlanta 68 83 69 83 / 30 60 70 50
Blairsville 58 77 62 77 / 20 70 90 50
Cartersville 66 84 66 82 / 30 60 80 40
Columbus 69 88 70 87 / 30 50 50 50
Gainesville 63 80 67 82 / 30 70 80 50
Macon 68 88 69 87 / 30 60 50 50
Rome 66 85 67 83 / 30 60 80 40
Peachtree City 66 84 67 85 / 30 50 60 50
Vidalia 69 91 70 89 / 10 60 50 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Thiem
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
738 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Aviation
.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
We will be cancelling the Red Flag Warning that is in effect up
north over the Manistee National Forest a bit early this evening.
The cloud cover has brought down temps a bit, and dew points have
increased a bit also. The potential for explosive fire behavior
has been mitigated a bit with the resultant higher RHs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Visible satellite imagery shows a band of mid clouds stretching from
northeast Lower west to near Green Bay. This band of clouds
delineates the cold front that will move through the cwa during the
next 24 hours.
Overall, models trends have continued to decrease QPF during the
next several days a bit. However, any rain we receive will be
beneficial.
Radar shows a few thunderstorms developing over Wisconsin attm near
the front and they will move east. HRRR shows these storms weakening
this evening as they cross the lake but do eventually move across
the northern cwa. There is a little bit of instability over the
northern cwa this evening, but not much. We included a slight chc of
a tsra in the grids for this.
Low pressure in Missouri will move northeast and cause more showers
to develop Sunday as it moves toward Cleveland. By Sunday night,
much of the showers should be east of the cwa but poised to return
early in next week due to the circulation around the upper low that
helps to draw the surface low back to the northwest.
Due to the cloud, low temperatures won`t be as cool tonight...48-58.
Highs Sunday will be 60-70. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the
40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
- Potential for showers Monday through Tuesday -
Models are in relative agreement in featuring a mid level low
over the CWA Monday and then tracking it east of the region
starting Tuesday. Sampling Bufkit overviews for RH from the GFS
shows the DGZ unsaturated Monday. This scenario is also supported
by the other models that feature little in the way of QPF then.
Thus we will start Monday off with only chance probabilities for
measurable precipitation. However for Monday night deeper
moisture arrives and it climbs through the DGZ. This moisture will
be associated with the wrap around moisture from the mid level
low as it starts to slide east. The low level flow will be west
northwest so that may enhance some of the low level lift Monday
night into early Tuesday. We will feature high POPs for this
period. The moisture depth is progged to drop off considerably
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the wave pushes slowly
east. Thus we will show decreasing POPs from west to east Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. Mean Ensemble 24 hr qpf values from
the models also show the arrival of precipitation Monday night
into Tuesday with solutions generally showing a quarter inch of
rain around Grand Rapids and slightly higher values toward
Cadillac.
- Below normal temperatures for much of next week-
Another influence of the mid level low will lower than normal
surface temperatures. The clouds and showers will hold back the
daytime high temperatures early next week. Current projections from
the ensemble max T forecasts show an increased risk for departures
of 10 or so degrees below normal both Monday and Tuesday. Closer
to normal max temps are forecast to arrive as the low pressure
system tracks away from the region Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Clouds are becoming more widespread over the area this evening
with the system taking shape over the region. A few sprinkles have
been reported well north of the terminals. Down here at the
terminals, it has been mainly few-sct mid clouds and the overcast
high clouds.
It will take a few hours, but shower potential will start to move
in at KMKG around 04z or so. This will slowly spread south and
east through the night and early morning hours. Initially the rain
will be accompanied by VFR conditions. It will take until around
12z or so for MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings to drop down
into KMKG, and then will spread slowly SE through mid-late
afternoon. KMKG could see some improvement late in this forecast
period as the rain moves out. Elsewhere, the potential will remain
through the end of the forecast period at 00z Mon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Winds will increase behind a cold front Sunday and those winds will
continue through Monday. We issued a Small Craft Advisory and Beach
Hazards statement to account for that. Winds will become northeast
15 to 25 knots behind the front Sunday, which will place the highest
waves at the 5 mile point offshore.
North sides of piers will be especially vulnerable to the waves
crashing into them and beachgoers are urged to stay off piers.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Monday
evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NJJ
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Key Messages:
- The threat of locally heavy rainfall which could produce
flooding in some areas continues tonight through Tuesday.
- Winds aloft will become strong Thursday and Friday and
thunderstorms are in the forecast. The potential for severe
storms these days is being monitored.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
The models are slowing up the southward progression of a wet cold
front across nrn Nebraska this evening and overnight. The blended
forecast which includes the NAM, RAP and HRRR is in place and this
continues the rain chances across swrn Nebraska during the day
Sunday.
Satellite shows a very weak MCV circulation near Thedford and radar
shows a second across nrn Nebraska near Valentine. The system near
Valentine activated this morning and produced flooding. Both systems
could become the focus for locally heavy rainfall and flooding as
they move very slowly southeast along the front this afternoon and
tonight. As noted by WPC, winds aloft are very weak, less than 10
kt, but it`s worth noting the warm air advection is neutral and the
h850 moisture advection is from the north. Nonetheless, moisture
advection will peak this afternoon and this evening and then fall
off overnight.
The cold front will become stationary along the Colo Front range
tonight and remain anchored Sunday. Daytime heating and weak
dynamics emanating from the approach of an upper low off the srn CA
coast should set off additional storm activity across sern WY and
ern Colo Sunday which could drift into swrn Nebraska. The bulk of
this rain will remain across Colo and KS.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
The upper low off the srn CA coast moves east and opens up across
WY and Colo Monday and Tuesday presenting addition shower and
thunderstorm chances across swrn Nebraska. The models continue to
show the bulk of this rain across the cntl high Plains west of
swrn Nebraska, but PWAT will remain an inch or higher and winds
aloft will remain very weak. The weak winds and moisture could
support the development of a locally heavy rain center across swrn
Nebraska. WPC has highlighted the high Plains and a small portion
of swrn Nebraska for excessive rainfall Monday and Tuesday for
this reason.
Rain chances diminish Wednesday as the upper low shears out and
moves east through KS. The models are then in good agreement
developing a belt of westerlies Thursday which amplify and become
strong from the northwest Friday and beyond. Thunderstorms chances
ramp up Thursday for a disturbance moving across the cntl Rockies.
The thunderstorm chance Friday is lower with a just weak disturbance
moving east out of WY. Severe weather could develop both days but it
appears the forcing Thursday is stronger and would present the best
opportunity for strong or severe storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and may linger
into the overnight. Winds may be gusty and erratic within the
stronger storms. Overnight winds will be out north around 10 kts,
then switch to the east northeast in the afternoon with gust up to
15kts. Lower cigs will move in late tonight into early morning
along with patchy fog, will develop MVFR to even IFR conditions.
Cigs will lift by late morning and VFR conditions will return.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
744 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 259 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2023
The 18z RAP analysis shows a 500 mb shortwave dropping south across
Lake Superior this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows an
area of a stratus deck ahead of the front across all of northwestern
Upper Michigan where temperatures have steadily fallen since
midnight. Webcams in these areas are showing some spots with fog and
mist, especially along the northern slope of Baraga/Marquette
Counties. Farther southeast, mostly sunny skies allowed temps to get
into the lower 70s and Menominee County managed a few popcorn
showers, but lightning data confirms the only thunderstorm activity
is farther west across Wisconsin. Radar also shows a line of weaker
showers extending east along the secondary frontal/trough axis.
Looking ahead through this evening and overnight, cold air advection
ramps up again behind this secondary front with 850mb temps dropping
to around 0C after midnight. There could be a few showers closer to
the Wisconsin state line, but most places stay dry. The combination
of some (albeit decreasing) cloud cover and persistent northeast
winds should keep the boundary layer well mixed with temps
struggling to drop very much. Based on that decided to boost min
temps by around 5F over what the NBM has resulting in lows around 40-
45F. Otherwise, not expecting much in the way of impactful weather
now that fire wx concerns have at least temporarily diminished.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2023
Expect well below normal temps, more moist conditions, and cloudier
skies to dominate most of this fcst period as a general troughing
pattern looks to set up over us for at least the first half of next
week. Hopefully, we will receive a wetting rainfall early this
upcoming week in the central and east as a vertically-stacked low
pressure rotating over the Great Lakes brings wrap-around moisture
over the area.
Sunday, the upper trough will continue to drop south while closing
off over the Great Lakes while a surface high builds over the
Northern Plains. Resulting northerly flow over our region will
advect in a dry and cool airmass. In spite of sunny skies,
temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s in most places, and
will remain coolest along Lake Superior...potentially not even
breaking out of the 40s! We should otherwise stay breezy courtesy of
a tighter pressure gradient over the area. With sunny skies and dry,
well-mixed soundings, dewpoints should crash once again into the
afternoon hours with RH falling into the 40s and upper 30s in the
interior UP. This would be marginally concerning in terms of fire
weather, but will note that much of the area has received some
rainfall today that may have helped somewhat with fuel moisture.
Meanwhile, another surface low will be tracking northward through
the Ohio Valley through Sunday, and should phase with the upper low
into Sunday evening with a connection to some Gulf moisture. This
feature becomes vertically stacked, wobbling over the Great Lakes
through Monday and Tuesday. Expect chances for rain spread in from
east to west by Monday morning as moisture pivots around the
vertically stacked low. While rain rates are nothing to write home
about, especially given the cold rain processes at play, with
consistent rainfall occurring from early Monday morning through
Tuesday across mainly the central and eastern U.P., there is still a
good shot that these areas could see a desperately needed wetting
rainfall. While the far west is likely to miss out on the rainfall,
they did receive a good bit of showery precip around a week ago as
well as this morning, so they aren`t hurting as bad as the east
drought/fire weather-wise. While a rumble of thunder or two could be
heard Monday and Tuesday, don`t expect any severe whether as
instability should be fairly limited to the mid to upper-levels of
the atmosphere.
The stacked low slowly begins to slide eastward Wednesday, but we
may still see some sporadic rainfall the rest of Wednesday and
Wednesday night as another shortwave drops through Wednesday
night/Thursday morning. Then, high pressure will build southward
from the Hudson Bay the rest of Thursday, remaining in place through
Friday. Sunny skies, mild temperatures in the 70s, and very dry and
well-mixed soundings should see RH plummeting into the afternoon
hours. We may also be breezy at least on Thursday as ridging will
lead to stronger gradient winds over the UP. Still, with sporadic
rain chances earlier in the week and leaves out, we may not be in
such dire straits regarding fire weather from midweek onwards. Into
the weekend, there are hints for the ridge to start to break down
and even for another shortwave to drop through - though not all the
guidance is in agreement on this. This far out, and with limited
confidence, will continue with the NBM`s slight chance PoPs into
Saturday. Otherwise, expect the gradual warming trend to continue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 744 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2023
Cigs are starting to improve over the region as drier air continues
to slowly work in behind the cold front that pushed through
overnight and this morning. KCMX has reached VFR conditions at
issuance time, but satellite imagery shows low clouds in the area
and Bufkit data also suggests occasional VFR and MVFR ceilings are
to be expected overnight. KIWD and KSAW will also see improvement of
ceilings, just several hours later than KCMX. Upslope drizzle and
light fog at KSAW should also diminish over the next few hours, with
VFR conditions expected overnight and through Sunday. Winds will
continue to subside overnight. Look for gusty winds to increase
after sunrise Sunday, with gusts up to 20 knots at KSAW and around
15 knots at KIWD and KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 406 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2023
North to northeast winds at around 15 to 25 knots will continue to
fall back below 20 knots for the evening and first half of the
night. Another shot of cold air moving in may see winds increasing
to 20 to 25 kts back across the eastern half of the lake for a brief
period after midnight, but besides that expect winds to remain light
at generally 20 kts or less for the rest of the forecast period. The
exception will be Monday, when a stacked low pressure system over
the Great Lakes should lead to stronger north/northwest winds with
gusts up to 20 to 25 knots over the eastern half of the lake.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EK
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...LC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
312 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low lifting across the southwestern
United States will bring the threat of strong convection to
northern and western Utah Sunday afternoon and evening...with
dry, windy conditions across southern and eastern Utah. As this
upper level low gradually weakens Monday, expect another round of
showers and thunderstorms across much of the region during the
afternoon and evening. A brief period of ridging may build into
southern Utah Tuesday into Thursday, constraining the continued
unsettled conditions to northern Utah.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...As far as convection goes,
today has been a relative lull in widespread activity but that is
about to change as another upper level low lifts across the
southwestern United States through Monday morning. Afternoon upper
air and satellite analysis indicates an upper level low near 33N
124W, with an area of broad upper level diffluence associated with
a 80kt+ jet streak noted across southern California and Arizona.
Current radar trends continue to show convection mainly confined
to the east of the Wasatch crest into Uinta County, WY as well as
near the Utah/Nevada and Utah/Idaho border. Expect convection to
gradually decrease in coverage later this afternoon into early
evening.
Attention then turns to a particularly strong set up for
convection across northern and western Utah Sunday afternoon and
evening. Expect broad upper level diffluence to shift into the
region by late morning. HREF ensemble mean SBCAPE values are
forecast to range from 750-1250 J/kg by midday, with 20-30+kts of
deep layer shear. The arrival of a mid-level speed max will
increase deep layer shear and the juxtaposition of the arrival of
deeper shear and convective initiation is one of the key questions
regarding the potential severity of this event.
Looking at the CAMS for potential storm morphology and evolution,
the 18Z HRRR suggests, convection will develop near 20Z,
coincident with the arrival of the 500mb speed max and thus shows
a north to northwest moving linear feature impacting much of
northern and western Utah including the Wasatch Front between
roughly 20Z and 02Z. The remainder of the CAMS have differences in
location of initiation (further south, less organized) or may
initiate convection well ahead of the 500mb speed max.
Current thinking is the HRRR is the most likely outcome, with a
moderate confidence in an area of organized convection impacting
northern Utah including the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley after
20Z Sunday. This would include the threat of a few wind gusts to
60 mph as well as small hail. With the 1730Z Day 2 Convective
Outlook, the Storm Prediction Center added a marginal risk to
portions of western Utah and may consider shifting this area
eastward with subsequent updates depending on the 00Z CAMS suite.
The upper level low will continue to weaken over the southwestern
United States into Monday.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...A low pressure system will
continue making its way into the Great Basin region on Monday. The
axis of the low will move through the CWA during the afternoon
and into Tuesday morning. With this system, PWATs will increase
not only in northern and central Utah, but also in southern Utah.
Current guidance have values ranging from 0.50" and 0.70" for the
majority of the CWA, with values as high as 0.80" in northern
Utah. The combination of this increased PWAT values and the axis
of the low moving overhead, storm motion will be slow. Due to this
storm motion, flash flooding will certainly be possible for
Monday.
Heading into Tuesday, the moisture from the low will stick around
through Thursday as our CWA is in between a trough to our north,
another low off the southwest coast of California. and zonal flow
to our south. All of these features will lead to virtually no
moisture transport out of the Great Basin region. The greatest
precipitation chances will remain in northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming through Wednesday. By Wednesday evening/overnight into
Thursday, the trough to our north digs a little further south and
with it a strengthening baroclinic zone that will help push the
moisture further south into central Utah. Behind this baroclinic
zone, drier conditions will be likely as northwest flow will
replace the southerly flow that we have been seeing. Lingering
showers and storms are possible during the day on Thursday in
central Utah.
The weekend looks to have a couple different possibilities as to
what will play out. Deterministic models agree on a low moving
into the Great Basin region while a deepening trough moves in from
the north. The ensemble guidance however, diverges on this
solution. Currently, 65% of ensembles agree with the
aforementioned scenario. This solution would bring increased
chances of precipitation Friday and Saturday. The other 35% have
the low off the coast of California and a strengthening ridge
forming over the western CONUS which would maintain the drier
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the period
with convection forming over nearby terrain. There is a 35%
chance that showers reach a 5-10 mile vicinity, and a 20% chance
that showers directly impact the airfield. CIGs will remain above
8kft AGL, with convective activity decreasing after 02Z.
Otherwise, northerly flow will remain in place through 04Z,
returning to a southerly drainage flow thereafter.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Outside of isolated
moderate to heavy rainfall over northeastern Utah/southwest
Wyoming, VFR conditions will prevail across the region. Within
moderate to heavy rainfall, high end IFR conditions are being
observed and will be possible through the remainder of the evening
across the aforementioned area. Generally light and diurnally
driven flows are expected across all terminals. Gusty and erratic
outflows are expected in, and around, showers and thunderstorms.
After about 02- 03Z, convective activity will decrease, however,
cloud cover will remain in place across much of the area with CIGs
around 10-12kft AGL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The unsettled pattern will continue across the region
through the next 5 to 7 days. An upper level low will gradually
weaken and fill across the southwestern United State through
Monday. With the combination of jet support and sufficient
instability, expect strong thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening across portions of northern and western Utah. Meanwhile,
south and east of this convection, expect gusty winds and low
humidities to bring localized critical fire weather conditions to
portions of southern and eastern Utah where fuels are sufficiently
dry. As previously mentioned, with the weakening upper level low,
expect convection Monday afternoon and evening to be more
typical, weaker showers and thunderstorms across a significant
portion of the region. Brief upper level ridging may build into
southern Utah between upper level lows early to mid-week, keeping
unsettled conditions constrained to northern Utah.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
Kruse/Cecava/Webber
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
909 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Not much change this evening to the forecast package, except to
account for current trends. Showers and storms have decayed, but
we may see some additional showers sneak into our northern
counties later tonight. Also added some mention of patchy fog over
parts of our Florida counties for late tonight into early Sunday
morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Nearby sfc ridging across the southeastern CONUS has promoted sfc
winds to turn south-southeast the CWA, thus lifting the warm front
northward. This has resulted in dewpoints increasing into the
upper 60s/lower 70s across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend region
this aftn, and lower dewpoints of lower to mid 60s across
southeast AL and southern GA. Aloft, flow has been gradually
veering from southwest to near zonal, with best UA
dynamics/embedded perturbation noted across the Southern Plains.
As such, the scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
coastal counties and portions of southern GA due to typical
summertime daytime heating seabreeze convection. In addition,
MUCAPE of around 3000 J/kg near the aforementioned areas has also
aided in the convection, so will be monitoring for any gusty winds
/could approach severe levels/. PWATS aoa 1.5 inches raises
eyebrows in posing a threat for localized flooding, however with
10 kts of mean flow, this will aid in mitigating significant
flooding potential.
This evening into tonight, as the warm front continues to lift
northward to across the northern portions of the CWA, any lingering
precip will be confined to the aforementioned area, though should
see coverage diminish due to loss of daytime heating.
Tomorrow, flow aloft will continue to veer to the southwest with
best UA dynamics noted across to our northwest. Sfc ridging centered
across the eastern Gulf will maintain srly sfc flow thus maintaining
dewpoints in the 60s CWA-wide. Short-term solutions such as the HRRR
hint at convection nearing/moving across southern GA tomorrow
afternoon, nearest to the warm front and perhaps an embedded UA
impulse within the southwest flow aloft. If this holds true, could
see gusty winds approach/equate severe levels.
&&
.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
A slow moving and persistent trough across the Great Lakes region
will have several reinforcing shortwaves rounding the base of the
trough throughout the next week. This will contribute to
unsettled weather across the region, particularly across our AL
and GA counties as a cold front approaches, stalls, then slowly
decays. As this is occurring, the reinforcing shortwaves will
allow for anomalously strong 850mb flow, potentially contributing
to a better sheared environment. This will potentially allow for
strong to severe storms throughout the work week. We`ll have to
monitor how this progresses over the next few days.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Expect another round of low cigs and perhaps lowered vsbys
overnight 09-14Z at all TAF sites except ECP. Beyond this,
convection will mainly affect sites north of the Florida state
line and have VCTS at these sites. For TLH/ECP, confidence and
chances are lower here and have kept out of this cycle. Winds will
become light overnight then southwesterly around 10 knots Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Surface high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas today will
continue to induce southerly surface flow across the northeast Gulf.
This will persist into Sunday. Computer models hint a cold front
moving across AL and GA, resulting in slightly breezy west/southwest
breezes across the waters and a light chop. Surface ridging across
the Atlantic will build across South Florida and the southeast Gulf
on Tuesday and Wednesday, with moderate southwest breezes and a
light to possibly moderate chop continuing thereafter.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Warm front across the region coupled with daytime destabilization
has resulted in scattered showers and thunderstorms across portion
of the FL Panhandle, the southeast Florida Big Bend and southern
GA areas this afternoon. Strong storms are possible with gusty
winds the main threat. Light South to southwest transport winds
tonight, will increase tomorrow through Monday, in addition to
mixing heights. Pockets of high dispersion will be possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
A cold front and the subsequent sagging and decaying of said front
to our north will induce unsettled weather through the next week. Up
to 3 inches of rain is possible across our AL and GA counties
decreasing to about an inch as one approaches the Gulf Coast. There
are currently no flooding concerns, isolated flash flooding may be
possible with slow moving heavy downpours.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 90 71 90 72 / 50 10 50 10
Panama City 86 75 85 75 / 30 10 30 10
Dothan 91 70 90 72 / 50 20 60 30
Albany 91 70 92 71 / 30 10 70 40
Valdosta 91 70 92 70 / 40 20 70 20
Cross City 90 70 90 71 / 50 10 40 10
Apalachicola 83 74 83 75 / 40 10 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Bowser
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Bowser
HYDROLOGY...Oliver
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Key Points:
- Low chance for isolated storms this afternoon, scattered storms
late tonight and overnight
- Cooler Sunday and Monday
- Warming back up through next week with periodic chances for storms
Remnants of an MCV from last night`s convection have been
circulating over northeast KS, as well as a mid-level wave as noted
on water vapor imagery. Clouds have struggled to clear into this
afternoon with spotty light rain lingering in some places, leading
to lower confidence in thunderstorms developing this afternoon. CAPE
has managed to increase to a few hundred J/kg across most of the CWA
with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg at best by peak heating, which lines up
fairly well with what RAP guidance has shown from this morning`s
runs. If a particular spot manages to clear out enough, an isolated
storm or two may still be possible this afternoon, but this is
already a low probability (10-20%) and will only continue to lower
as long as cloud cover sticks around.
The greater focus for the short-term part of the forecast is on
increasing thunderstorm chances as a cold front pushes south from NE
tonight. CAMs haven`t shown much consistency in timing or placement
of storms, with the NAM Nest perhaps being the most persistent in
developing an MCS along the frontal boundary. If this scenario is
correct, we should start to see storms develop in west central NE
within the next hour or two. As long as that line holds together as
it drops south, damaging winds to 60mph and small hail remain
possible, although the lack of a LLJ leads to questions on how well
any storm complex will maintain strength as it moves through the
area tonight. Other CAMs such as the HRRR suggest scattered storms
developing in NE, but without much organization as convergence along
the cold front doesn`t look overly impressive. What appears more
certain is the moisture axis maintaining itself over far northeast
KS with Pwat values approaching or exceeding 1.5". As such, any
storm across this area could produce heavy rainfall with localized
flooding as a possibility.
Rain should come to an end by around mid-day Sunday as the surface
front continues to push south and the upper forcing moves out of the
area. Cooler conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as a result
of the front with highs in the 70s both days and lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms return by Tuesday, although
the main westerlies and mid/upper jet look to be far enough south to
keep the main system to our south. We could get clipped on the north
side, so have some chance PoPs remaining to account for that
possibility. From there, we look to transition to northwest flow
toward the end of the week with a couple of disturbances bringing
additional chances for storms. Temperatures gradually warm up
through the week with 80s making a return area-wide.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Expect scattered shra at the terminals through 05Z. Scattered tsra
possible after 06Z through 13Z with cigs lowering to mvfr after
09Z then ifr by 12Z. Cigs then rise to mvfr after 15Z then
eventually become vfr after 21Z. Vsbys will vary from vfr, mvfr to
ifr with the lower categories expected with tsra. Winds light
northwest becoming north around 12-14kts with gusts to 22kts
possible after 15Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
108 PM PDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...An incoming weather system will bring shower and
thunderstorm activity to the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin
through Monday. Temperatures will cool markedly as well through
Monday before gradually returning to near normal by the end of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Through next Saturday.
Slow moving upper low will impact our region over the coming days
with bouts of showers/thunderstorms, well below temperatures and
periods of gusty winds across the Mojave Desert.
Upper low initialized off the central California coast early this
morning will slowly move south today, not reaching the southern
California coast until early Sunday morning. As the low stays
offshore today, best diffluence aloft and instability will lie
across the western Mojave Desert, Inyo and Esmeralda Counties. A few
storms have already flared up along the foothills of the Inyo
Mountains, between Independence and Bishop. Storms starting to show
signs of training which will locally enhance rainfall. Latest HRRR
starting to resolve that potential better with output suggesting
between 0.25"-0.50" of QPF along the foothills of Inyo Mountains.
Overnight, scattered showers and maybe a stray thunderstorm will
continue over Inyo County. Then by daybreak a few showers should
start to breakout over the western Mojave Desert of San Bernardino
County.
On Sunday, upper low will slowly drift northeast across southeast
California, toward southern Nevada. Airmass forecast to be most
unstable over San Bernardino, southeast Inyo, southern Nye and
western Clark Counties. This will likely support isolated pockets of
heavier rain over the Mojave Desert terrain which could lead to
minor flooding issues. Highs will be 10-15 degrees below normal,
actually closer to record low maximum`s which for Las Vegas is 83
set in 1976.
The cool, unsettled weather will linger into Sunday night and Monday
as the upper low slowly weakens/lifts northeast away for the area.
Tuesday through Saturday. Ensemble simulations show upper trough
over the region shearing out/weaken Tuesday/Wednesday with a weak
cutoff left behind well off the southern California coast.
Temperatures will be on the rise Thursday-Saturday under rising
heights. Per the 13Z NBM, the chance for 100F at KLAS on Friday is
24%, and Saturday its risen to 33%.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds are expected to vary between 100-
140 degrees with speeds generally between 8-12kts with occasional
gusts to around 20kts through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds
will gradually diminish and shift to the southwest after sunset. FEW-
SCT mid level clouds with BKN-OVC high clouds.
On Sunday, look for southeast winds to again develop by late morning
with speeds between 8-12kts and gusts up to 20kts. There will be
some isolated showers and thunderstorms around the valley during the
afternoon and there is a slight chance of these showers and
thunderstorms to impact the terminal along with gusty outflow winds.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...The primary weather related concern in the forecast is
the potential for thunderstorms in parts of the Great Basin and
eastern California this afternoon and evening, including KBIH. Any
storms that form may be capable of gusty outflows and moderate to
heavy rainfall. Outside of these storms, winds will be out of the
south to southeast for most locations with speeds between 10 and 20
knots. Mid to high clouds spread across the area and are expected to
last through most of the day. More widespread thunderstorm activity
is forecast for Sunday which will include areas of San Bernardino,
Clark, and Nye Counties.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Gorelow
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter