Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/10/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
856 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Forecast is in fine shape overall with isold/sct storms continuing
well into the evening. More activity coming out of ND suggests a
continuation of the activity, despite the lack of a decent
nocturnal LLJ. Temps look fine for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Showers and thunderstorms should continue impacting the Missouri
Valley through this evening, with the HREF and HRRR showing central
SD having the best potential for much needed rainfall. While severe
weather is not expected, a few storms may produce small hail and 40
to 50 mph wind gusts. Additional weak thunderstorms may develop over
northeastern South Dakota and western MN this afternoon and evening.
A cold front, currently across northern Montana and northern North
Dakota will slide southward across the area later tonight and
through the morning hours on Saturday. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary, mainly
south of Highway 212. Winds should increase from the northeast
behind the frontal boundary with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible.
Cooler, or near seasonal average, temperatures can be expected on
Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The RAP near-surface
smoke still suggests reduced visibility due to smoke during the mid
afternoon hours on Saturday. While smoke was not added to the
forecast, the sky cover has been increased to 30 to 40 percent.
Saturday night will feature dry conditions with low temperatures
dropping into the upper 40s, to the low 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
By 12z Sunday, at the start of the period, a cold front will have
already passed to the south of the CWA and high pressure will be in
place along with a cooler and drier airmass. PWAT values at 12z
Sunday should be between 0.5" and 0.75" per the NAEFS and ECMWF
means, which is a ~0.5 to 0.75" decrease from 24 hours prior. High
temperatures should be in the 70s Sunday, which is approximately at
or up to 5 degrees below normal for this time of year across the
area. Sfc dewpoints will struggle to reach 50 degrees, with
northeasterly breezes, under mostly sunny skies.
The upper-level pattern begins with an Omega block, aka upper-level
ridge centered near the Front Range with two large upper lows on
either side, and this should more or less persist through the middle
of the week. However, a shortwave then closed upper-low tries to
move east across southern Canada thereafter, which could lead to a
break-down of the upper-ridge across the Northern Plains and a
period of westerly or northwesterly flow aloft. 21% of the ensemble
membership from the WPC Clusters page still keeps the upper-ridge
squarely across the Northern Plains on Friday, including 28% of the
ECMWF membership, and another 33% has the upper-ridge axis nearby,
across the MN/WI border Friday. Point being, there`s no consensus on
how things will evolve which leads to forecast uncertainty for
things like PoPs and temperatures. In any case, the heat should make
a bit of a comeback for Tuesday through Thursday, with continued
predominantly dry conditions (can`t rule out the potential for
afternoon peak heating-induced spotty shower and storm development
by Wed/Thu as there should be a gradual return of Gulf moisture by
then). However, just how hot remains a question, as 500mb heights
are actually near climatological normals, aka no strong anomalies.
Most likely highs in the mid to upper 80s, locally higher.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR skies/vsbys will be predominant but some late night MVFR cigs
are possible. Isold storms are possible through the night.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
900 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low moves offshore tonight. High pressure then builds
across the region Saturday and Sunday. Smoke from Canadian
wildfires will gradually dissipate this weekend with improving
air quality. Unsettled weather returns Monday with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 855 PM Friday...
Weak trough will swing across mainly the nrn/NE portions of the
FA overnight w/ SCT-BKN clouds possible ISOLD SHRAs. Lingering
haze possible...OTW mainly SKC w/ light/VRB winds. Lows ranging
from the l50s W and m-u50s toward the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
The upper low departs to the NE Saturday with shortwave ridging
building across the Mid-Atlantic region. Mostly sunny, however,
the HRRR smoke forecast does indicate that some haze could
linger, but once again not to the extent of the past few days.
Warmer with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Mostly
clear and mild Saturday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s. The ridge axis pushes offshore Sunday as another upper low
dives into the Great Lakes. Warmer Sunday with high temperatures
in the mid 80s to near 90F (locally around 80F/lower 80s along
the coast). Mainly dry Sunday. However, a warm front approaches
from the SW Sunday night with increasing PoPs, especially W/NW.
Increasingly humid Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to
around 70F. A cold front then crosses the region Monday
associated with a shortwave trough pivoting around the upper
low. This will bring showers/tstms to the region with PoPs
70-80% along and ahead of the cold front. 500mb flow is on the
order of 40-45kt. However, there is still some uncertainty with
respect to the timing of the front, which will affect how much
instability can advect into the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...
There is a chc for lingering showers/tstms along the coast
Monday evening, with drying overnight as the cold
front/shortwave trough push offshore. Otherwise, much of next
week appears to be characterized by an upper low gradually
moving from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada with some
southern stream energy across the Deep South. This will place
the local area in generally WNW flow aloft with PoPs at or below
climatology. Highs Tuesday are in the lower 80s, and highs
should then warm into the mid 80s, and potentially some upper
80s inland as the week progresses. Lows will mainly be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s early in the week, and then in the 60s by
late week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...
ISOLD SHRAs and SCT CU will continue to dissipate through 02-03Z/10
as winds become light/VRB. Lingering haze possible but would
have very limited impact..OTW SKC and VFR tonight/Sat morning.
Winds become SW around 10 kt along w/ SCT CU. VFR and dry
conditions are expected Sat night-Sun. A cold front approaches
from the W Sun night with SHRAs/tstms and occasional flight
restrictions Mon as that front moves through the FA. Drier and
VFR conditions return Tue-Wed.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM Friday...
Broad high pressure is centered over the Midwest with upper
level troughing still anchored over New England and southeast
Canada. Winds locally are 5-10 kt, generally from the N and NW.
Waves are around 1 foot with seas 2 ft or less.
High pressure builds SE tonight in the wake of yet another
shortwave trough embedded in the larger cyclonic circulation
over the Northeast. Not expecting the coverage or intensity of
showers and storms that we saw yesterday but a few heavy
downpours and gusty winds are possible late this afternoon into
the early evening. Smoke coverage is a bit improved over
yesterday but periods of restricted visibility will remain
possible into Saturday. Outside of visibility issues, expect
generally quiet/benign marine conditions tonight through the
upcoming weekend. Weak synoptic flow will result in a typical
land breeze by night into the early morning, with sea breeze
developing each afternoon. Upper low pulls away late Saturday
into Sunday, with weak upper ridging returning and surface high
pressure building to our south Sat night into Sunday. This will
hopefully bring a more protracted end to the smoke issues of the
past week or so. The surface high pressure then moves offshore
late Sunday into Monday ahead of the next system approaching
from the west. A warm front lifts across the waters Sunday night
into early Monday, with the trailing cold front then crossing
the waters Monday night into Tuesday. S-SW winds increase to
15-20 kt (highest nearshore and over the lower Bay) Sunday night
through Monday. A period of marginal SCAs is possible during
this Sunday night into early Monday timeframe. Winds become SSW
late Monday and Tuesday as the weakening front pushes into the
region. Breezy W-SW flow then persists through midweek, though
likely below SCA levels. However, the prolonged southerly flow
will allow SSE wind wave to build seas back into 3-4 ft range
over the open ocean, with waves ~1-3 ft in the rivers, bay and
sound.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/ALB
MARINE...RHR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
631 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Main concern in the Short Term period is strength, longevity,
placement of tonight`s forecast mesoscale convective system (MCS).
Mid-afternoon thunderstorm activity was already underway across
northwest KS extending east-southeast across the I-70 corridor down
into central and south central KS. Much of this activity was just
outside the boundary of the DDC forecast area, however the
expectation is that there will be a slow expansion southward of the
I-70 activity down toward the Highway 96 corridor through the late
afternoon and early evening. This will likely merge with southeast
Colorado storms later in the evening, eventually forming the well-
advertised MCS as it marches across KS tonight.
Short term convective-allowing models (CAMs), particularly the HRRR
have been quite consistent with the track of the MCS tonight from
southeast CO into the bulk of southwest KS, which is why POPs were
increased to 60 to 80 percent over a larger portion of our southwest
KS region. The ongoing storms this afternoon were north of the best
vertical wind shear environment, so these initial storms were rather
disorganized, although the coverage of convection was quite numerous
and will continue to expand in coverage through the evening. There
is a Slight Risk of severe from the SPC, mainly far southwest Kansas
where storms in this region will be much closer to the better shear.
The MCS will clear our region early Saturday morning, and for the
better part of the day, southwest Kansas will be in a region of
subsidence behind the MCS and its leftover mesoscale convective
vorticity (MCV) anomaly. The June airmass will recover by late
afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid 80s for a high,
although tomorrow afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
confined to mainly northern Kansas and northeastern Colorado.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
A rather strong cold front will push south late Saturday Night,
which will bring cooler air into southwest Kansas on northeasterly
winds. Both Sunday and Monday look particularly cool on the latest
model runs. Highs have been lowered both days, especially Monday. In
fact, the airmass Monday looks cool enough that once we get into a
post-frontal upslope regime, widespread low stratus cloud cover is
likely to break out on Monday, especially the western DDC CWA region
which would really curtail any decent warmup. Meanwhile, yet another
robust Pacific jet streak will be advancing on the Southern Rockies
and High Plains by late Monday-Monday Night. This will induce low
pressure to our south/southwest, enhancing low level upslope flow
with pretty good moisture advection. Monday Night, it certainly
appears there will be another formidable MCS developing out across
eastern Colorado moving into adjacent far western/southwestern
Kansas late in the evening/overnight. The stubborn remnant cool
airmass will be augmented by any MCS activity, such that Tuesday
will also probably be pretty cool, and this is also reflected in the
latest forecast with highs in the 73 to 77F range across much of
southwest and west central KS. The polar frontal zone will remain in
place across the southern/central Plains with a pretty good west-
southwest to east-northeast oriented upper level jet in vicinity of
the frontal zone mid-week. This will favor multiple rounds of shower
and thunderstorm activity until the jet finally clears our region
later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Convection and winds over the next 6 to 9 hours will be the main
focus this Friday evening.
Gusty north winds from an outflow boundary from the convection
north of Garden City and in the Hays area was moving south at 23z
Friday and is expected to produce a wind shift in the Dodge City
and Garden City areas from the south at 10 to 20 knots to the
east at 10 to 20 knots between 01z and 03z Saturday. This wind
shift will be follow by a more pronounced shift in the winds
between 03z and 06z Saturday as a cluster of strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms roll across southwest Kansas. As these storms
cross western Kansas the southeast to easterly winds at 1 to 20
knots will shift to the west north winds and increase into the 25
to 30 knot range. Wind gusts in excess of 40 knots will be
possible at times along with reduced visibility due to heavy
rainfall. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds from these thunderstorms
will taper off from west to east between 06z and 09z Saturday.
After 09z Saturday...VFR conditions can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 87 59 78 / 60 20 30 0
GCK 59 85 58 78 / 80 20 20 0
EHA 57 84 57 79 / 60 10 10 0
LBL 59 85 59 80 / 80 10 20 0
HYS 62 87 60 77 / 60 40 50 10
P28 65 86 64 81 / 70 30 30 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
concerns. See the fire forecast discussion below for more details.
By Monday, the UL low will shift northeast into Southern NV and UT
pushing the H500 jet across AZ and NM. This will push the breezy
conditions to the entirety of the forecast areas with the bull`s
eye for winds across the New Mexico Rio Grande Valley. This UL low
will quickly absorb into the main flow and weaken on Tuesday,
shifting the H500 jet away from it. Winds will decrease as a
result, helping alleviate fire concerns. The passage of this low
will also allow the subtropical ridge more typical of summer to
build from Mexico into the Desert SW. Winds will still be somewhat
breezy each afternoon, but the main impact will be increasing
temperatures, especially as we head into the weekend. El Paso will
likely see its first 100 degree day Friday or Saturday. The GFS is
more aggressive with this ridge with H850 temps around 35 degrees
Celsius. This translates to highs nearing 105, so this will need
to be watched closely for heat stress concerns.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
VFR and quiet weather conditions can be expected through the TAF
period. Skies generally SCT to BKN with ~15K feet CIG heights.
Skies will gradually clear through the evening and into the
overnight hours, becoming SKC by 09Z-12Z. Winds remain breezy,
mainly out of the west at 10-15 knots with higher gusts to 25
knots. Winds will gradually decrease through the evening hours,
becoming generally light and VRB during the early morning hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Elevated to critical fire conditions expected each day. A fire
weather watch is in effect for zone 111 (Southwest NM) on Sunday.
For the rest of today and Saturday, highs will run below normal
but with min RH values in the single digits. Winds will top out
this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon around 15 MPH with higher
gusts. A few areas in the NM Bootheel will see winds closer to red
flag / critical conditions tomorrow afternoon, but areal coverage
precludes any red flag issuance. Vent rates will range very good
to excellent.
Beginning Sunday, an upper-level low will move over Southern CA
and NV, keeping breezy to low-end windy conditions anchored in
place across our area. Strongest winds will be west of the Divide
on Sunday, and this combined with very low min humidity near ten
percent will create critical fire conditions for most of the area
west of the Divide. For zone 111, winds look to be just above
criteria. For this reason, a fire weather watch is in effect. The
strongest winds will be across the Gila, but with ERCs below 80
percent for most of the higher elevations, I decided to hold off
on any headlines. On Monday, winds increase for the entire area
with more widespread critical to near critical conditions in
place, especially across New Mexico. Dry conditions will continue
past Monday but winds will decrease, and except for a few isolated
locations, critical conditions are not expected for Tuesday or
Wednesday at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 67 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 62 90 62 92 / 10 0 0 0
Las Cruces 60 95 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 59 91 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 46 68 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 58 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 54 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 53 93 56 94 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 54 91 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 64 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 58 93 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 62 96 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 62 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 63 96 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 59 91 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 66 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 58 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 56 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 59 93 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 59 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 52 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 49 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 49 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 49 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 56 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 55 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 48 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 51 89 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 43 91 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 51 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 55 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 54 91 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 54 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 55 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 56 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ111.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34-Brown
LONG TERM....34-Brown
AVIATION...38-Rogers
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1135 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
...Evening Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
The forecast remains on track this evening with just minor tweaks
made to the next few hours of T, Td, and RH. A clear to mostly
clear sky is expected across the CWA overnight with morning lows
in the lower 50s to mid-60s.
Martin
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Morning cloud cover has cleared the area leaving sunny skies in
its wake, outside of a few cu that have popped with the afternoon
PBL mixing. Despite relatively light sfc winds, smoke has mostly
cleared, though HRRR smoke model still indicates some smoke in
place through the atmospheric column and we`ve seen a few weather
stations still reporting the occasional haze. This will stay in
place until Canadian airmass pushes out starting tomorrow into
tomorrow night.
Speaking of the Canadian airmass - we have some very unusually
dry air in place across much of the CWA. Tonight`s 00Z sounding
will be interesting to see. HREF ensemble average shows PWATs
around 0.4"- 0.6". This would break the all time low PWAT for the
date, and is well below the 10th percentile running average for
this time of year per the (new and improved, go check it out!) SPC
sounding climatology. Dry airmass and clear skies will also
contribute to some very cool temps for June tonight as radiational
cooling takes over, bringing temps well into the 50s across all
but the far southern portions of central Georgia.
Our respite from the heat and humidity is short lived, however.
Tomorrow we see sfc winds swap back to the south as the large
upper level low over the NE begins to meander to the east, away
from the eastern CONUS. Sfc moisture will return, alongside
chances of rain, which should slowly increase through tomorrow
night.
Lusk
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
No changes made to the extended forecast. By Sunday the main
trough will have moved well of the east coast into the Atlantic
which will set us up for the pattern ahead which will be more
unsettled than the short term. An upper level low forms over the
Great lakes bringing troughing through the central plains Sunday
before the low deepens and the trough swings eastward into the the
southeast and Georgia on Monday. This upper level feature equates
to a cold front moving through our area Sunday into Monday which
during this time of year is expected to provide some level of
forcing that could give us more organized thunderstorms than the
normal summertime pop up storms. The timing is in favor for this
area though for severe weather as the instability is more
prominent during the afternoon whereas the front is more expected
overnight at this time.
Following the frontal passage the low pressure system is expected
to stall in the Canadian Maritimes and the front is also expected
to stall over central and southern Georgia. This will overall put
us in a westerly pattern with moisture being fueled in from this
direction. THe exact positioning of this front will determine how
much rainfall we get through the end of next week. at this time
daily afternoon into evening rain chances and thunderstorms can be
expected for much of next week with QPF value in the 0.5-2" range
for much of the area. MAx temps are expected to stay in the mid
80s for northern Georgia and the upper 80s for central Georgia.
There could be a bit of variation over the next couple of days
depending on where the frontal system stalls out.
Hernandez/01
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with no convection
expected at any of the TAF sites. SKC is expected overnight with
FEW to SCT diurnal Cu developing tomorrow (Saturday). A wind shift
to NE is progged to occur around 01z tonight at ATL. Winds will
be less than 4 kts overnight then gradually shift from SE to SW
over the course of late tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Wind
speeds will be 4-8 kts tomorrow. Yet another wind shift back to
SE is expected around 03z Sunday.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on wind shift timing Saturday evening.
High confidence on all other elements.
Martin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 58 87 65 83 / 0 0 10 70
Atlanta 61 88 68 84 / 0 0 20 80
Blairsville 52 81 59 78 / 0 0 10 80
Cartersville 55 88 65 84 / 0 0 20 80
Columbus 63 91 69 87 / 0 10 20 70
Gainesville 57 86 65 82 / 0 0 20 80
Macon 62 91 68 88 / 0 10 20 70
Rome 55 89 65 86 / 0 0 20 80
Peachtree City 58 89 66 85 / 0 10 20 80
Vidalia 64 91 69 91 / 0 10 10 60
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1050 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Thunderstorm activity is now minimal across the area, with
isolated showers draped along the cold front. Impacts are not
expected through the remainder of the overnight period. Dew points
behind the cold front are generally in the 40s and 50s, bringing
much lower RH values into the area for the weekend.
UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Cold front continues southward this evening, with thunderstorm
activity along and ahead of the front. Low level shear, combined
with convective updrafts along the many outflow boundaries, has
generated an environment that will be favorable for landspout
development through the next several hours. The primary region
where this may occur is generally south of Highway 200 and west of
the Red River.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Convection and smoke will be the main issues for the period.
Northwesterly flow aloft with a reinforcing shortwave digging down
this afternoon and tonight. This will help push the cold front
currently near the international border down through the CWA
during the night. There is a good amount of ML CAPE of around 2000
J/kg near the boundary, and effective bulk shear is around 30 kts.
A few storms that have crossed into ND have been pulsing up and
producing winds just under severe criteria around 50 mph. There
will continue to be a few strong to severe cells as the frontal
boundary pushes south this evening. HREF has a few paintballs with
updraft helicity over 75, but not a lot and at this point it seems
probability of severe will be around 10 percent. By 04 to 05Z,
even the more bullish CAMs have convection diminishing down to
showers and pushing southward out of our CWA. Have some low POPs
lingering in our south a bit longer for some post-frontal shower
activity, but otherwise should start to become more quiet on the
precipitation side of things as we head through tonight and into
tomorrow.
With a large amount of Canadian wildfires upstream of both upper
flow and surface winds, seeing some smoke will be a possibility
late tonight into tomorrow. The HRRR and RAP both have some high
vertically integrated smoke coming into our northern counties this
evening, so continued the trend of including higher sky cover even
with clearing behind the front. Surface smoke is more
questionable, with Canadian and domestic models both showing only
small concentrations of low level smoke. There will be good mixing
behind the cold front, but not confident enough to include in the
grids at this point.
Saturday will be pretty quiet with cold air advection continuing.
Northeast winds will get somewhat breezy with gusts up into the 25
to 30 mph range in eastern ND. However, temperatures will be
quite a bit cooler than they have been recently, and the afternoon
RH values should stay mostly above 30 percent. The only area where
they could get close to 30 percent will be in our northeastern
counties, where winds are expected to be lower. Thus, think fire
danger will not be too much of an issue on Saturday. Conditions
will be cool and quiet Saturday night with high pressure and
temperatures dropping into the upper 40s in some areas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Sunday and Monday...Conditions remain fairly quiet with the main
upper low lingering over the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure
remains across the Plains, with relatively dry air coming down out
of Canada. Remains to be seen if we get any high or surface level
smoke from Canadian wildfires, as smoke models don`t go out that
far, but will keep an eye out. Temperatures will be close to
seasonal averages on Sunday, but start to rise a bit on Monday as
upper ridging builds in to our west.
Tuesday through Friday...The upper ridge over the western Plains
starts to break down a bit and move eastward. There is the potential
for some ridge riding shortwaves to come down into our area, but
much will depend on exact timing of the ridge breaking down and
particulars of small scale features that cannot be resolved at this
point. By Thursday, there is decent agreement on the main ridge axis
moving into MN, with more of a trough building into the Northern
Rockies and then into the Plains on Friday. Cluster analysis has an
even split with the strength of the upper trough, with some holding
the ridge in the central CONUS a bit stronger and other solutions
showing fairly strong troughing in Manitoba/North Dakota. Precip
chances should be increasing for the end of the week with the trough
over us or approaching, but specifics hard to nail down.
Temperatures will rise back above seasonal averages by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Primary impacts to aviation this evening will be convective
activity in association with an approaching cold front. Sites most
likely to see VCTS will be KFAR, KBJI, and KTVF. A few reports of
landspouts have been noted as of 23Z, with a supportive
environment prevailing through around 02Z. Outside of tstorm
activity, VFR conditions prevail, along with generally light winds
through around 06Z. After that, winds will increase slightly, with
gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Lynch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
604 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Updated the forecast for latest thunderstorm activity. Main idea
was to drop chances for precipitation where storms have worked
over the environment (basically Benkelman south to Goodland east
to Hill City and north to McCook). Did increase pops along the
boundaries where convection is ongoing and storms moving in from
the west. Activity should begin moving southeast through the
evening and then exit by midnight. Still could see some marginally
severe storms with hail and wind as the primary threats, and also
heavy rainfall where storms are able to move over the same
locations repeatedly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
At the start of the short term period, the latest upper air RAP
analysis shows the CWA having a south-southeasterly flow aloft being
underneath the back end of a ridge with an upper air low over south
ID. Current radar imagery and surface observations show showers and
storms occurring mostly from Goodland to Hoxie to Norton with some
isolated showers along I-70. Models show the upper air pattern
pretty much staying the same going into the evening with a shortwave
disturbance traveling through the flow over the CWA. At the surface,
models show this first round of showers and storms to continue to
develop along a stationary boundary cutting across the eastern half
of the CWA. In the evening, models show a surface low moving into
western KS bringing another round of showers and storms into the CWA
as they develop in CO and move eastward across the rest of the CWA
though they look to be mostly along and south of I-70. With SBCAPE
values continuing to be around 1000 J/kg or above, the severe
weather concern continues though the bulk shear values continue to
be low (10-20 kts). Large hail up to ping pong balls as well as
strong wind gusts look to continue to be a threat. Another concern
is for potential flash flooding with areas east of the CO border
seeing PWAT values of 1 to 1.2 inches. So will continue to monitor
for potential flooding through tonight with storms currently moving
slowly and lingering in some areas. Overnight lows look to be in the
lower 50s to the lower 60s.
Going into Saturday, models show a weak upper air low developing
over the CWA by the evening hours within the ridge while an upper
air low travels just west of southern CA and another stronger upper
air low moves over the Great Lakes region. Another shortwave
disturbance is seen traveling through the flow of the CWA during the
evening as well. At the surface, chances for showers and storms look
to continue for another day with cold front moving through the CWA
during the day. Models show bulk shear values starting in the
afternoon similar to the previous day, but increasing to around the
30 kt range particularly in the south going into the evening and
late evening hours. SBCAPE values look to be in around 1000 J/kg in
the west and increase to around 2000 J/kg during the evening. SPC
has a marginal risk for severe weather for the entire CWA which
looks to be reasonable at this time with storms that develop on
Saturday. Large hail and strong winds look to be the potential
threats. PWAT values look to be under an inch, so perhaps the
flooding concern may be a lesser by a bit compared to the previous
day. Will monitor for better timing of the frontal passage along
with the precipitation in future forecasts. Daytime highs expect to
range between the upper 70s and upper 80s followed by Saturday
night`s lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
For Sunday, forecast guidance shows the CWA underneath a weak
amplitude ridge throughout the day being between the western low
that has now moved over southern CA and the northeastern upper air
low still over the Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is seen passing
through the flow over the western CWA during the evening. At the
surface, the CWA looks to be in a post frontal environment with
SBCAPE values under 1000 J/kg for most of the area. However, models
show better bulk shear values around 30 kts. Models show another day
for chances for showers and thunderstorms, but mostly for the
western half of the CWA with the aforementioned trough passing over
the region. Severe weather potential looks to be low at this time,
but may need to watch for potential flash flooding concerns with
PWAT values above 1 inch in some locations. Daytime highs look to
cool to between the upper 60s and the upper 70s after the previous
day`s frontal passage with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Active weathe55r continues with chances for showers and storms.
Below normal temperatures are expected to start the week, before
warming back up closer to normal.
The upper pattern at the start of the long term period has the area
sandwiched between two low pressure systems - one over the Great
Lakes region and another over the southwestern CONUS. Westerly flow
backs to the southwest with the nearing trough in the Tuesday
timeframe. Flow returns west-northwest for the latter half of the
work week as that system slides southeast.
PWAT values throughout the period remain generally around 0.75 to an
inch, closer to 1.25 inches for eastern portions at times. Best
chances for showers and storms currently expected at the beginning
of the week before trailing off towards the latter part, though
confidence also decreases past this range. Will need to continue to
monitor for severe potential given the active pattern and better
shear to work with than in recent days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 604 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms
keep attempting to move into the vicinity of KGLD, but as the
outflow boundaries slide southwest of the area, expect activity to
diminish. Will have to watch the Colorado convection as it could
impact KGLD later. KMCK might remain thunderstorm free although
there is some fresh development around Imperial with an outflow
boundary. Overnight, not expecting any weather significant to
aviation. Thunderstorms possible again tomorrow afternoon, but
most guidance suggests thunderstorms more likely during the
evening, just after the end of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...RRH
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
849 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 848 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Pleasant through Saturday afternoon, as high pressure sits over the
region. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms move in from the
west Saturday evening, continuing overnight into Sunday. The best
chance of rain is during the day Sunday. Most areas will see around
a half inch of rain, but localized rainfall amounts over one inch
are possible. Temperatures turn cooler for the start of next week,
with highs only in the 70s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Another night of quiet weather continues across central Illinois
under the influence of high pressure centered over southern Lake
Michigan. Temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 50s
overnight with scattered high clouds streaming overhead at times.
No significant changes to the forecast needed this evening.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
---------- Key Messages ------------
1. Widespread showers, with some embedded thunderstorms, are
likely (80% chance) Saturday night-Sunday. A few strong to severe
storms are possible Sunday afternoon, primarily south of I-70.
2. Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday, with
highs in the low to mid-70s.
3. Rain is unlikely during the first half of the upcoming work
week, as Sunday`s cold front ushers drier air back into the
region.
------------------------------------
Another pleasant June evening is in store tonight as sfc high
pressure remains positioned over Illinois. Lows will drop into the
mid-50s overnight, a t ad below normal but a few degrees warmer
than Thursday night was. With a quiet start to the period,
attention turns to our much anticipate rain chance for Saturday
evening into Sunday.
At the start of the period, the synoptic pattern was defined by an
upper low over New England, and ridging along the Rockies. There
are two disturbances to watch this weekend: the first is a weak
shortwave moving through the southern branch of the jet stream,
and the other is another upper low that will dig towards the Great
Lakes. This will result in a weak sfc low tracking across the
Midwest Saturday evening, followed by cold frontal passage on Sun,
providing the region with one of the more widespread rain chances
in quite some time.
The expectation remains that much, if not all, of the day Saturday
will be dry, with skies starting off mostly clear and cloud cover
gradually increasing through the day. In terms of precip onset,
most CAMs keep the ILX CWA dry until the overnight hours, with the
exception of the HRRR which has scattered showers present after 7
PM. Forecast soundings show considerable dryness in the low
levels, with a well-mixed PBL up to 800mb/5000 feet. Between this,
and the drought conditions present across Missouri and Illinois,
am favoring solutions with later precip arrival time.
While scattered showers are possible overnight into Sunday, the
best chance of precip looks to be Sun, as low-level WAA-driven
precip is focused across the area, and then the cold front moves
through. NBM QPF has seemed too aggressive with this system, with
the deterministic QPF coming in 0.25-0.50" higher than the Grand
Ensemble mean. Even from a probabilistic viewpoint, NBM shows
around a 40-50% chance of exceeding 1", while the Grand Ensemble
only shows a 10-20% chance of exceeding 1". With PWAT values
approaching 1.5" and some elevated instability present, I do
expect some lucky areas to exceed 1", but I think any totals over
1" will be much more localized than the NBM currently suggests.
While beneficial, these rains won`t break the drought. The Ohio
River Forecast Center noted in their discussion that this rain
event is only expected to provide a brief increase in
evapotranspiration rates, with little impact on stream levels.
There could be some stronger storms across the far southeast
portions of the CWA on Sun, although it will depend on the frontal
timing. Current guidance has the front moving through during the
afternoon, by which time 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE develops ahead
of the front, along with sufficient deep layer shear over 30
knots. If that front slows, the threat of severe storms could
extend further north into the CWA, although it`s worth noting that
the run-to-run trend has been towards a faster frontal passage.
After the frontal passage, temps will be cooler than normal, with
highs only in the 70s for Sun and Mon. The front also ushers in a
much drier airmass, with PWAT values dropping to around 0.50".
That drier air should limit any meaningful rain chances through at
least the middle of next week. Northwest winds are expected to be
breezy (25-30 mph gusts) on Mon-Tues, as the closed upper low
over the Great Lakes keeps a tight sfc pressure gradient in place
across Illinois. Deterministic guidance has a wave moving through
the southern branch of the jet stream by Wed PM-Thurs, which would
result in rain across the mid-MS Valley. This wave is currently
forecast to track south of the ILX CWA, but adjustments to the low
track could bring some rain into our area. For now, those south
of I- 72 stand the best chance of seeing rain from that system.
Temperatures return to the mid/upper 80s after Monday.
Erwin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
High pressure is centered over the Midwest this evening resulting in
light and variable flow and VFR conditions across central Illinois.
As the high drifts SE towards the upper Ohio Valley, light S/SSW
winds will overspread central Illinois. Meanwhile, low pressure will
move slowly east across the Great Plains tonight into Saturday
resulting in increasing mid and high clouds locally late in the
period.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1201 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
The HRRR and Canadian smoke models are both showing the smoke will
be less concentrated by morning and most harmful smoke will be
moving east of the area overnight as the Lake James trough, seen on
H20 vapor imagery, kicks the persistent New England upper low out to
sea by late this weekend.
IR Satellite was showing an arc of thicker cirrus that has moved
into the lower Wabash Valley. This will hold up temperatures there
for a few hours until it passes through. Otherwise, broad surface
high pressure will move from the Wabash Valley to the Ohio Valley
and Appalachians overnight. This will result in calm or very light
winds and combined with the dry column/mostly clear skies make for
ideal radiational cooling and overnight lows in the lower 50s. The
visibility has held to 6 plus miles this evening and should not get
any worse with the smoke concentration set to decrease.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure
centered over IL. This was resulting in light northerly surface flow
across Central Indiana. This high pressure system was quite large;
its influence extends from the Carolina coast, across the Ohio
Valley, and into to the upper midwest. Dew points across the area
remained quite dry, hovering in the upper 30s and lower 40s. GOES16
satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across Indiana, and smoke
appears to be limited to points in NE Indiana and lower Michigan.
Smoke plumes upstream appear quite diminished compared to previous
days, hinting at relief from this week`s stubborn haze. Aloft, water
vapor showed sharp ridging in place over the Rockies, and low
pressure in place over Maine and New England. This yields in
continued northwest flow with lee side subsidence in place over the
Ohio Valley.
Locally, the influence of this high pressure has contributed to
strong, diurnal radiational effects on temperatures. After warming
up to near 80 degrees under the mostly clear skies, temperatures
should cool quite efficiently as daylight departs into the overnight
hours. To further supplement this, winds will begin to calm and
become more variable in direction, allowing surface temperatures to
cool to the lower 50s.
By daybreak tomorrow, surface winds will shift towards a more
southerly orientation, marking the beginning of a pattern switch as
surface high pressure moves east of Indiana. Surface warm air
advection under mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to heat
up into the 80s tomorrow afternoon. Cloud coverage may approach the
northern portions of the area by the end of the short term forecast
period. This could cause slightly lower high temperatures in the
northern tier counties, but expect diurnal maximums to be above the
80 degree mark across the entirety of the region. Observational
trends in this coverage will need to be watched, but the main
takeaway from the proximity of said clouds is that the pattern of
blocking high pressure and upper level ridging is breaking down. The
initial shift in these features will provide relief from the
stubborn smoke and haze of the past few days. The column remains
quite dry tomorrow, with dewpoints at or below 50 degrees, but there
are hints of change on the horizon.
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
The long range will feature several chances for precipitation, which
is in stark contrast to the very dry conditions we have been
experiencing lately. Overall the long range will be characterized by
a weak but amplified upper flow pattern. Troughs will have the
tendency to occlude then remain stationary or progress very slowly.
Additionally, wildfire smoke will be an ever present issue as
numerous fires continue to burn across Canada.
Saturday night into Sunday
A trough is scheduled to approach the region late tomorrow into
Sunday. As it does so, it will deepens and rapidly occlude. Surface
cyclogenesis will also occur as the system progresses across
Indiana. Strong forcing at the surface will allow numerous rain
showers to develop, with some embedded thunderstorms as well. The
extent of thunderstorm activity will largely depend on how much the
surface low can strengthen. A stronger more wrapped up low would
have a buoyant warm sector stretching further into our area than a
flatter more subdued low. Additionally, a stronger low would have a
more robust low-level wind field which could enhance shear values.
While severe weather is not currently expected, trends in guidance
will need to be monitored. Modeled lapse rates currently look quite
weak.
Monday and Tuesday
As Sunday`s system rapidly occludes to our north or northeast, wrap
around moisture within the cool unstable upper trough could allow
scattered showers or storms to develop at times. Monday appears
fairly dry as of right now, as the system should not be fully
occluded until Tuesday. Some guidance shows isolated showers
reaching our northern counties as early as Tuesday morning, becoming
more widespread and spreading southward through the day.
Temperatures through this period should be a bit cooler than average
as the occluding system remains in the vicinity...with Monday being
the cooler of the two.
Wednesday through Friday
Confidence decreases a bit in this part of the long range as
guidance generally diverges. The occluded low is modeled to flatten
slightly and depart eastward, with overall broad troughing remaining
over the northeastern US. A strong southerly jet stream then sets up
from Texas to Virginia, with assorted shortwave troughs embedded
within. The exact evolution and position of these troughs is part of
the reason for the uncertainty. Each model is handling them
differently, which is to be expected this far out. Solutions in the
global models range from expansive surface high pressure to an MCS
or two passing near or south of the CWA. Blend appears a bit high,
but will leave at least slight chance PoPs in the grids for now.
Regardless, a moderating trend in terms of temperatures is expected
through the end of the period. Temperatures should return to near or
slightly above normal values. Normals are around 80/61 for central
Indiana.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1201 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Impacts:
* Winds becoming south-southwesterly early this morning
Discussion:
No sub-VFR visibilities are expected from smoke/haze, and
wind patterns suggest it will mostly shift east of our area today.
As the surface high moves away, light south-southwesterly winds will
develop during the predawn or early morning hours. Leading up to
this, a period of calm or light/variable winds are expected. Toward
the end of the TAF period mid-high clouds may thicken ahead of the
next weather system but any ceilings will remain higher than around
15,000 ft. Thus, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
TAF period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...MK
Short Term...Puma/Marcus
Long Term...Eckhoff
Aviation...BRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
732 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
High pressure remains in place through Saturday. Rain arrives
Saturday night and lingers through Sunday. Some dry weather is
likely Monday followed by additional rain chances thereafter.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
High pressure centered over northern Illinois this afternoon will
slide east through Saturday. Expect another crisp night, through a
touch warmer than this morning, and a seasonably warm Saturday
afternoon as this transition takes place.
HRRR vertically integrated smoke values are forecast to fall through
the remainder of today and overnight. As such, we`ll put aside the
"haze" that has been in the forecast for a past few days.
Additionally, Air Quality Alerts are expected to end at midnight
tonight; another indication that the wildfire smoke is moving on.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Rain chances remain on track to start the new week, through exact
amounts still need to ironed out. Rain arrives from west to east
starting late Saturday night, with showers likely through Sunday. A
period of dry weather is probable Sunday night through most of
Monday before wrap-around rainfall, with lake enhancement, moves
through Monday night through Tuesday.
Forecast models over the past four runs are trending south which
results in a steady dose of rain across the forecast area (about
0.50"), with perhaps two corridors of rain totals near 1 inch
possible (some solutions higher). Those highest rain amounts would
occur first near the zone of cyclogenesis, then in the deformation
zone on the back side of the low as it pulls away.
While this single rain event is unlikely to erase the drought
conditions, the overall upper-air pattern looks promising for
additional rain late in the week. A ridge is centered over the Four
Corners region, placing us within active northwest flow. Embedded
shortwaves traversing this ridge keep some low POPs in the forecast,
followed by higher POPs next weekend in hopes of a low developing
over the western Great Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Winds will diminish, possibly becoming light and variable
overnight, especially at KSBN with an eventual shift to more of a
SW direction on Saturday. VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
921 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Northwest flow continues overnight. Not seeing much upstream from
the Mid-South as the main track for convection is well to the
west invof the stalled frontal boundary across NE OK into western
AR. Expect dry conditions overnight for the most part. A few
showers or thunderstorms could pop up late tonight/early Saturday
morning across the very SW corner of the forecast area according
to the latest CAMS though confidence in this is low.
The main story will be increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal and showers and storms impact mainly the western half of
the forecast area Saturday afternoon.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
A wetter pattern will begin tomorrow as a cold front moves across
the region. There is a chance for severe storms on Sunday.
Showers and thunder chances will continue for the remainder of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
The elongated generally dry period will come to an end
tomorrow as a low pressure system ejects out of the northern plains.
The warm front associated with the low pressure system will make its
appearance tomorrow and allow for showers and thunderstorms with
increasing coverage by the evening hours. Severe threat looks
limited, but some storms could produce some small hail and gusty
winds.
While Saturday the severe threat is limited, on Sunday there is a
Slight Risk for severe weather, and a Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall, as a cold front associated with the aforementioned low
moves across the region. CAPE values ~2000J/kg, shear nearing 40
kts, and PW values near 1.8" result in favorable conditions for
large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Late afternoon/early
evening hours support the previously mentioned threats. QPF values
for Friday-Monday are generally 2" or below, but with potential for
locally higher amounts.
A majority of the Mid-South will dry out Monday, with isolated
showers and thunderstorms still possible; resulting in QPF values
maxing at 4" by next Friday. Below climatological temperatures will
start of the week with increasing temperatures each day by starting
out near 80 Monday and reaching the 90s by Thursday. While
temperatures climb and isolated thunder chances possible each day,
our next chance of widespread thunder coverage looks to come
Wednesday as a warm front lifts north.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
all sites. Typical summertime convection should start to pop up as
early as 18Z tomorrow, warranting VCSH/VCTS at all sites except
MKL. The evening hours get a bit tricky in terms of storm timing.
The HRRR depicts a broken line of widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms moving in tomorrow evening after 00Z. However, it
is the lone CAM outlier with this scenario. For now, kept
prevailing showers with VCTS after sunset but included a PROB30
for prevailing thunderstorms late tomorrow night. Subsequent TAFs
will hopefully have a better handle on convective timing and mode
for the end of the period. Light winds overnight should pick up to
5-8 kts generally from the south tomorrow morning.
CAD
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
925 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the east over the weekend. A
cold front will impact the area Monday and Monday night. Weak
high pressure briefly builds in Tuesday before the front could
lift back northward into our area mid-to-late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 925 PM Friday... Isolated showers that had impacted
portions of Hyde and Beaufort Counties as well as Hatteras
Island earlier this evening have since either dissipated or
moved off the coast and expecting a dry forecast for the
remainder of the evening. Latest satellite imagery shows the
last of the clouds also departing the CWA with this shower
activity as well, with clearing skies and light winds
overspreading ENC this evening. Only adjustments made to this
evenings forecast were for near term temps and dewpoints to try
to catch ongoing trends with both. Otherwise expecting a similar
outcome this evening with inland locations seeing lows in the
low 50s and near 60 along the OBX.
Prev Disc...A vort lobe moving around the base of the upper low
centered over New England will push across the area early this
evening. Skies will become mainly clear later this evening with
loss of heating and vort lobe moving offshore and combined with
calm winds will allow for excellent radiational cooling. Very
dry air remains just above the surface but near saturated
conditions at the surface could lead to patchy shallow fog this
morning but will dissipate quickly after sunrise. Unseasonably
cool temps continue with lows around 10 degrees below normal in
the mid 50s inland to around 60 along the coast. Some inland
sites could drop into the lower 50s. Some climate sites could
approach record low for the date and have included the current
records in the Climate section below.&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 415 PM Friday...The upper level low over New England
finally pushes eastward with NE upper level flow becoming
westerly through the day. Height rises aloft and sfc high
pressure transiting the area will allow for mainly sunny skies,
although sct diurnal cu expected in the afternoon, and light
winds. High will be near climo in the mid 80s inland to around
80s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Developing Bermuda high pressure over the
weekend brings more summerlike conditions. Then, a cold front
brings storms to the area Monday and Monday night. Tuesday is
more settled as the front remains south of the area, but
unsettled weather may return mid-week as the front could lift
back north over ENC.
Saturday night and Sunday...Building upper ridging and high
pressure ridging in from the east will keep dry conditions and
above normal temps in place through Sunday. Overall, a welcomed
fair- weather, summerlike weekend.
Monday through Friday...Stacked low pressure deepens over the
Great Lakes early next week, with the associated cold front
bringing widespread showers and storms to ENC. Confidence is
increasing in the greatest coverage of showers and storms Monday
afternoon through evening/overnight as the primary band of pre-
frontal low level moisture traverses the area. Shear will be
marginal during this time, but ample instability and DCAPE
values expected to approach 700-900 J/kg will bring the
potential for some severe thunderstorms, with micro-bursts and
medium to large hail being the primary concerns, while lack of
updraft longevity is the primary limiting factor.
The cold front pushes south of the area Tuesday morning, with
waning moisture ahead of the more severe-conducive shear
profile that arrives with an upper shortwave during the day
Tuesday. Storm coverage Tuesday afternoon will be very limited,
but there may be some continued severe potential with any storms
that do form.
The front could lift back north into the area Wednesday or
Thursday, with an unsettled period possible, but significant
model variability justifies little more that low end chance POPs
generally following typical diurnal patters mid to late week at
this point.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 7 PM Friday... Some haze has stuck around this evening
across EWN and the Crystal Coast resulting in MVFR vis across
the region, though given current camera images across these
areas minimal impacts to operations is expected from this haze
activity. Any left over haze should gradually dissipate as the
evening wears on resulting in VFR conditions returning across
the entire CWA this evening.
As we get into tonight, a combination of clear skies and calm
winds will produce excellent radiational cooling conditions and
some locations may become saturated with light fog development
late tonight. However, as was the case last night, very dry air
remain just above the surface and any fog that develops will be
shallow and expected to have limited impacts to operations.
Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail Saturday. HRRR smoke
models continues to show smoke/haze persisting around ENC
tomorrow but concentrations are less than today and don`t expect
vsbys to drop below VFR.
LONG TERM /Sat night through Wed/...
As of 345 Am Fri...VFR prevails through the weekend. An
approaching cold front could bring lowering ceilings and the
potential for flight restrictions Monday into Monday night, with
widespread showers and some thunderstorms also expected.
Conditions are expected to improve Tuesday as the front pushes
south of the area, but unsettled weather could return midweek.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 420 PM Thursday...High pressure will transit the coastal
waters through the period with winds mainly below 15 kt. wind
direction will mainly be S to SE through this evening, then
become Wly late tonight through Saturday morning, then becomes
southerly around 10-15 kt Saturday afternoon with the center of
the high moving offshore. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft
through the period.
LONG TERM /Sat through Wed/...
As of 345 AM Fri...Light to moderate winds prevail over the
weekend as more seasonable Bermuda high pressure sets up. A cold
front approaching from the west will bring increasing S to SW
winds Sunday night through Monday, with breezy conditions and
SCAs potentially needed later Monday into Tuesday. Moderate to
breezy winds possible mid to late week as the front could lift
back toward the area. Very limited trade swell persists through
the period, with local seas mainly reflective of the local wind
strength and direction.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for June 10th.
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 54/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 54/1997 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 46/1997 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 52/1988 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 49/1997 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/RCF
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...SK/CB/RCF
MARINE...SK/CB
CLIMATE...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
729 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 301 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2023
Overall, the going forecast was on track except for winds on the
Keweenaw. Ended up going with the maximum of available guidance
through the evening there due to the long westerly fetch off Lake
Superior. As the sun gets close to setting, winds should subside
until after the cold front moves through late tonight. Away from
Isle Royale and our northwestern Lake Superior shoreline,
temperatures have warmed into the 70s with a few sites (e.g. Kenton,
Rexton) pushing 80F this afternoon. With dew point temps generally
in the 30s this means RH values have dipped into the upper 10s and
20s once again. Fortunately, winds generally less than 10 mph
kept the fire danger in check today and this should be the final
day in the lengthy stretch of elevated fire wx concerns. Cheers!
Looking ahead to tonight, the primary forecast challenge is rain
chances associated with the cold front. Current satellite imagery
and lightning data shows a line of thunderstorms stretching from
near International Falls, MN northeast across Ontario. 12z HREF
guidance does a good job of highlighting this activity, but also
unanimously weakens it by midnight and/or as it reaches Lake
Superior`s northern shoreline (whichever comes first). This front
tracks across the northwest half of Upper Michigan by 12z Saturday
and precip amounts should stay below 0.1" areawide due to perhaps up
to 600-700 J/kg MUCAPE. Even if an updraft gets going, effective
shear values less than 15 knots suggests it will quickly rain itself
out. Based on the above, I considered completely removing thunder
from the forecast, but I suppose there is a slight chance of a
desultory thunder clap or two so I limited values to 15% or less.
Otherwise, subtle warm air advection ahead of the front and better
mixing behind the front should keep temps warmer tonight, mainly
around 50F.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2023
A shortwave trough dropping south around a ridge over the Canadian
Prairies will be the focus of the weather the next few days. By
Saturday morning, the associated cold front will be well into the
UP, bringing mostly light precipitation to the UP. With PWATs of
around an inch, any particularly strong updraft could bring some
brief downpours, however, 12Z HREF mean MUCAPE values are only 100-
250 J/kg. The best chance for heavier rain will be the vicinity of
Menominee, as RAP soundings show upwards of 40 kt of sfc-8km
shear, though recent NAM Nest runs have more modest QPF relative
to later runs yesterday. Overall, QPF should be limited to a tenth
of an inch or less for much of the UP, but every drop of rain
helps when the Marquette Area (much like most of the UP) still has
not had a trace of rain since May 24th and no more than half of a
tenth of an inch of rain since May 20th.
After the passage of the cold front by Saturday evening, a brief
quiet spell is in store for the UP before rain returns from the
east. As the aforementioned trough descends over the Upper Great
Lakes, it slows significantly Monday and Tuesday. 500mb height
anomalies over the Lower Peninsula by 06Z Tuesday could reach -24
dam and if the 12Z GEFS mean 500mb height of 5520 m verifies over
Detroit, it would be very nearly the record lowest 500mb value for
mid-June. This will support an approximately 1000 mb low thats
expected to linger in the Great Lakes Basin, though there is some
ensemble disagreement on how far east or west the low sets up, which
will have a large impact on precipitation. There`s also concern
about dry slotting that may hamper precipitation further, but at
these forecast ranges, it`s difficult to pin down where the dry slot
may occur. Deterministic guidance for QPF has finally fallen in line
with ensemble solutions, for example, the 06Z GEFS 75th percentile
for total QPF at KERY by Wednesday is just shy of 1.5 inches while
the GFS is at about 1.25 inches, with a couple ensemble members now
showing multiple inches of QPF possible. Even if the high QPF
solutions verify, rain rates should be fairly tame as instability
will be quite limited, so expecting a longer-duration light rain for
much of the central and east UP. The west may briefly see some
precip Monday but it`s possible that the west remains dry,
especially if the low sets up on the eastern end of ensemble
guidance. This will help the fire weather concerns as the east has
been more dry in the last month than the west, which experienced
some scattered storms last week.
As Tuesday turns to Wednesday, the once-desultory low and parent
trough exit to the east, though the ECMWF takes the trough more
northeasterly. Ridging looks to move over the UP following the
trough`s departure, which should allow for quieter weather, and
although it`s too soon to completely write off fire weather
concerns, guidance shows a more moist airmass over the UP than what
has resided over the UP of late. A clipper low will form upstream,
but considerable ensemble uncertainty exists regarding the path and
intensity of the low once it reaches the Upper Midwest early Friday.
Cluster analysis shows the end of the forecast period potentially
entering into a more zonal pattern aloft, which would mean mid to
late June could be a more active weather pattern than early June.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 729 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2023
VFR prevails through the rest of tonight ahead of an approaching
cold front that will start to drop through after midnight. This
should bring in MVFR ceilings and perhaps a few rain showers into
Saturday morning, first at IWD and CMX by sunrise and then at SAW by
late morning. While a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out,
probabilities are too low to include in TAFs at this time. Lingering
low clouds are expected to scatter out from west to east Saturday
allowing VFR cigs to return by the afternoon at IWD and CMX and by
the early evening at SAW. Winds generally out of the west tonight
turn northerly behind the front late tonight into early Saturday.
These north winds should increase to around 15-20 knots at all
terminals Saturday morning as surface heating results in more
efficient mixing.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 331 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2023
Today, winds across Lake Superior are below 20 kt. A cold front
advancing over the lake tonight from the northwest will lead to
northerly to northeasterly gusts of 20 to 25 kt tonight through
Saturday evening over the central and western portions of the lake.
As a closed low stalls over the Lake Huron vicinity, northerly to
northwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are possible Monday, with
those winds possible Sunday night and Tuesday if the low is stronger
than anticipated or further west than expected. As the low departs
the Great Lakes Wednesday, winds fall below 20 kt and remain that
way through the forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EK
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...GS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1010 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
The forecast remains on track with minimal changes made. Dew point
depressions remain fairly large in most places with northeastern
portions of the area most likely to see patchy fog again. Also,
temperatures have fallen quicker than expected, so hourly values
were updated to reflect this. The opposite has been seen with dew
points, so this trend was reflected as well. Minimum values
overnight remained largely unchanged.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Key Messages:
1. A mostly clear and cool night then plenty of sunshine Saturday
with near normal temperatures.
Discussion:
Upper flow over the region will gradually become more zonal as the
upper trough over the NE states drifts away, and surface high
pressure over our area will slowly drift east. We will see a mostly
clear sky for the short term period. The HRRR Vertically Integrated
Smoke output generally indicates a lessening trend to continue over
our area, so will keep the Haze mentioned as is in the north
overnight which still agrees with the guidance, then no mention for
now on Saturday as the trend toward less haze hopefully will
continue as the HRRR guidance currently suggests. Temperatures will
be below normal for tonight but should be near normal for highs
Saturday. Some patchy river valley fog may develop again tonight
especially north.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Key Messages:
1. Moderate to heavy rain will bring much needed rainfall Sunday
into Monday.
2. Potential for additional heavy rain and storms Wednesday through
remainder of period but high uncertainty precludes specifics.
Discussion:
The biggest story of the long term period is the incoming frontal
system that will help alleviate the budding drought across
Tennessee. Widespread moderate rainfall is expected, with storm
total rainfall of an inch across a majority of the area. PWAT values
in soundings Sunday afternoon are roughly 1.5 inches which is the
upper quartile for this time of year. Embedded thunderstorms will
make efficient work of the saturated atmosphere and deliver higher
amounts. Severe wise, the Storm Prediction Center has the western
half of eastern Tennessee in a marginal risk, with damaging winds
being the reason. With skinny CAPE profiles in the global models
coupled with marginal shear values of 20 to 30 knots, not expecting
significant severe activity, though cannot rule it out.
Interestingly the GFS and NAM show a more subtle shortwave trough in
advance of the main upper low system. That would bring us rain
sooner on Sunday, complicating how much CAPE would be available for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
As the overall low pressure system matures and occludes over the
Great Lakes, the attendant cold front will push through Tennessee
and bring an end to the rainfall from the west to the east during
the day on Monday. The upper trough will slowly meander across the
Great Lakes for a portion of next week, and uncertainty increases
significantly from midweek onwards. Guidance shows a potentially
messy forecast, and will depend on the interplay between
disturbances riding the southern jet and the lumbering low over the
lakes influences our regional weather pattern. Potential is there
for additional heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, but amounts and
significance will depend on timing and strength of the disturbances.
For now leaning heavily towards the NBM given uncertainty in the
extended.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
light to calm winds overnight. Fog is definitely a possibility
again at TRI, but chances are too low for inclusion in the TAF
with how dry conditions are. During the day on Saturday, no
ceilings are expected with some cumulus clouds at or above 5,000
feet. Winds will become more southerly as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 87 66 86 / 0 0 20 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 84 63 85 / 0 0 10 80
Oak Ridge, TN 53 85 61 84 / 0 0 10 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 82 56 85 / 0 0 0 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Wellington
AVIATION...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
There is be another chance of afternoon thunderstorms Friday and
some will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. The weekend
will feature afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s with
a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Idaho
Panhandle.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tomorrow: 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE, 1.2-1.4" PWATs well
over 200% of normal, cloud layer mean wind < 20 knots, tall skinny
cape profiles have led to efficient rain producers this afternoon
SE WA/Southern ID Panhandle. While instability is not as great as
Thursday, flash flooding and lightning, and gusty winds are still
possible. This activity will shift north over this afternoon and
evening north of Interstate 90. Highs are much cooler in the 70s
for today with cloudy skies. Lows will dip into the 50s.
Isolated shower and afternoon thunderstorms are possible tomorrow
but generally over the ID/NE WA mountains and expected to be short
lived. Highs will creep a few degrees higher into the the upper 70s
and 80s. Lows continue to stay in the 50s. db
Sunday through Friday: A low pressure over California will continue
to send moisture towards the PacNW through Monday, allowing for the
continuation of showers and thunderstorms. The most likely area to
see these will be the northern mountains and Idaho panhandle but we
can`t rule out showers and thunderstorms in the lower elevations.
Weak ridging will build into the region late Monday into Tuesday,
allowing for daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight
lows will struggle to drop much below 60 with the abundance of
moisture in the atmosphere. The chance of thunderstorms will continue
over the Idaho Panhandle and northern mountains. A trough will slide
to our north on Wednesday that will break down the ridge over the
region, cooling temperatures back towards normal. /KM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: Clusters of showers and thunderstorms in far southeast
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle at 2330Z were moving
to the north between 20-30kts. The deepest surface based
instability depicted by the RAP model are on the Idaho side of the
WA/ID state line. There is a 50 percent chance that cells in
Idaho will become thunderstorms in the Idaho Panhandle through 04z
with probabilities in Washington 30 percent or less. With that in
mind, our TAF for Coeur d`Alene is carrying a TEMPO for
thunderstorms while the Spokane TAFs are not. So far, radar has
suggested that hail to the size up to 2 inches has accompanied the
strongest updrafts. Overnight, areas of low to mid-level stratus
will likely form. HREF and GFS MOS guidance didn`t handle the low
cloud development very well last night. Our TAFs are more
pessimistic than these forms of guidance given the high
precipitable water values and wet ground from recent rains...2000
to 3000ft for GEG, SFF, COE, and PUW. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 76 54 82 59 87 / 40 20 10 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 57 74 54 82 59 86 / 60 30 10 20 10 20
Pullman 52 73 51 78 55 82 / 40 40 10 20 10 30
Lewiston 62 81 60 88 64 91 / 40 40 10 10 10 30
Colville 53 76 50 82 54 86 / 50 30 20 30 10 20
Sandpoint 57 74 54 80 58 84 / 60 40 10 30 20 30
Kellogg 58 71 56 78 59 81 / 80 40 20 40 20 50
Moses Lake 54 78 52 86 61 92 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
Wenatchee 59 74 57 84 64 91 / 40 30 10 10 0 0
Omak 61 78 57 86 63 92 / 60 40 30 20 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch until midnight PDT tonight for Central Panhandle
Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern
Panhandle.
WA...Flood Watch until midnight PDT tonight for Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Western Okanogan County.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
540 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
-Dry streak looks to be ending
-Some severe weather risk Sunday but shear is limited and there
are instability questions
-Trend looks for bigger severe/heavy rain risk to remain to our
south for system in the mid week but model inconsistency is high
It looks as if we are finally about to break out of the long lived
blocking pattern that has kept the region dry for the last several
weeks. Troughing to the northeast is being booted eastward as
deeper troughing forms ahead of a surge in the subtropical jet
over TX/Mexico. This will setup surface ridging to our southeast
that will shift winds around to the south and clear out the
residual smoke from Canadian wildfires. A moisture gradient over
northern Arkansas dividing our 40-45 degree dewpoint air from
65-70 degree dewpoint air will nudge in this direction through
midday tomorrow as the broader low level flow shifts.
We will need to watch the location of this boundary as it will
act as a foci for shower and thunderstorm development. Right now
it still looks like it will remain far enough southwest to not be
a factor and the overall thermodynamic profile looks pretty meager
even with moisture advection. The 12z HRRR does trail an MCS into
SEMO in the afternoon, and will keep a 20 pop in the late
afternoon in deference to this despite a drier look to the
forecast overall.
Saturday night into Sunday the low-level moisture moves into the
region en-masse. NAM12/GFS40 both generate convection in the
early morning hours Sunday (with a small shortwave trough that the
other guidance doesn`t have) that results in rain cooled air and
reduced instability during the afternoon. CAM guidance including
the 3km NAM and RRFS keep us cleared out most of the day and have
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE built in by peak heating. The ECMWF also
shows a similar solution. The GFS solution (thunder in the
morning associated with a leading shortwave trough) looks
plausible, but find the ECMWF/CAM guidance solution looks more
realistic. Will keep 30-40 pops in the overnight and morning hours
building to >95% pops in the afternoon. Deep layer shear is just
sufficient for some storm organization. Lower level shear improves
after sunset but a faster run-to-run trend in guidance makes me
think most everything will be clear of the CWA by 00z keeping our
tornado threat mitigated. Some wind/hail is possible particularly
if we remain convection free after sunrise Sunday. 1.6" PWATs
should result in some heavy rainfall but the ground seems more
than ready to soak up quite a bit of thunderstorm precip and
flooding issues should remain at bay.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Drying is expected through Monday and Tuesday before a messy
pattern sets back up on Wednesday through the end of the week. A
strong trough approaches on Thursday. Models have differed
considerably in the timing/placement/shape/strength of this trough
and the associated lower level impacts for the last few days. From
the ensembles/trends and 12z deterministic it looks like for one,
the bulk of any severe weather threat looks to stay to the south.
Rainfall chances are pretty good although timing questions make
the 40-50 peak pops for a 12 hour period look about right for now.
I expect that we will be able to zero in a bit more in the next
12 to 24 hours. If guidance trends a little further north our
severe weather window might open as its a fairly dynamic system
with good deep layer and low layer shear in the warm sector.
From there we move into a fairly progressive upper level pattern
that you would expect will result in more frequent rain chances
than what we have experienced over the last two weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Other than some SCT high clouds and maybe periodic smoke offering
potential restrictions to VSBYS, weather is nil and should mostly
if not entirely run VFR thru the package.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
306 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Key messages:
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the southeast
plains through this evening.
Thunderstorms initiated across the southeast mountains this
afternoon and will continue to push eastward into the southeast
plains through the late afternoon and evening. Best CAPE still
resides across the southeast plains where ML CAPEs are still 1000-
1500+ J/kg. Expect an uptick in thunderstorm strengths as they push
east of the I-25 corridor. With DCAPE on the order of 1000-1400
J/kg, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph will be the primary risk.
Better deep layer shears across the southern plains may favor better
storm organization and strengths with straight line hodographs
suggest splitting supercells will be possible through the afternoon
though deep layer shears are marginal. Hail up to around 1 inch in
diameter will be possible, especially closer to the mountains.
Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will also be possible, but with
better storm motions, flash flooding may be limited to urban areas
and locations with more susceptible or saturated soils.
Thunderstorms will move eastward with more of a gusty wind threat as
they push eastward into southwest KS into a developing MCS later
this evening. Majority of thunderstorm activity should exit Colorado
by 8 PM...however some lingering showers could persist across the
mountains and far eastern plains until midnight.
Saturday should see less thunderstorm activity, though northerly
winds across the plains behind a boundary will eventually shift from
an easterly direction during the late afternoon and evening,
bringing 50 dew points back westward into the mountains into Sat
evening. For now, CAPEs look lower with values up to around 1000
J/kg across northern sections of the area. Another weak wave
evident in PV fields will help trigger showers and thunderstorms
again Saturday afternoon with the best coverage across northern
sections of the southeast plains and the Palmer Divide region where
wind and marginal severe hail will be the primary storm risks. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Key messages:
1) A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to
dissipate into the late evening hours on Saturday, mainly over the
far eastern plains.
2) On Sunday, a cold front will move through with developing showers
and thunderstorms. There could also be some stronger storms, or even
a few severe storms by late afternoon/evening, mainly over the
Palmer Divide.
3) On Monday and Tuesday, PM thunderstorms will develop, some
thunderstorms could become strong, or even severe over the plains.
Thunderstorms may continue through the night on Tuesday and into
Wednesday, mainly over plains.
4) On Wednesday through Friday, showers and thunderstorms could be
more widely scattered each day, with less chance of severe storms
but a possible flash flood concern for some areas.
Detailed discussion:
Saturday evening...
Isolated afternoon convection will move out over the plains by
later in the evening and a few of these storms have the
possibility of becoming strong or even severe as they continue to
move over the far eastern plains near the KS border where there is
going to be better MUCAPE of around 1200 J/kg over Kiowa County,
along with higher dewpoints and bulk shear between 30 to 35 kts.
HRRR is also alluding to the development of a MCS over Kit
Carson/Cheyenne counties where the most southern storms could
affect Kiowa County and produce strong and gusty outflow winds
that may reach severe criteria. It also is targeting Baca County
for a stronger storm with winds over 50 kts right around the same
time at 7 PM. In addition, higher DCAPE and steeper low-level
lapse rates could also aid in stronger outflows. With a consensus
of the CAMs, it does appear that all convection should moving out
of the CWA by around 9 to 10 PM.
Skies will continue to clear for most areas. An outflow boundary
may also expedite the timing of a cold frontal boundary associated
with the area of low pressure upstream, which looks to push
through during the early morning hours on Sunday, and winds will
switch out of the northeast over the plains.
Sunday...
There will be an upper level low centered over southwest California,
and a major shortwave downstream with an associated area of low
pressure over the Great Lakes region which will send down a cold
frontal boundary through during the early morning hours on Sunday
and keep winds relatively out of the north throughout the day. The
lift provided with the boundary will help to initiate convection
during the late morning hours and throughout the afternoon. As the
U/L low pressure over southern California continues to send up more
mid level moisture, and higher CAPE remains over a good portion
of the plains, especially along the I-25 corridor, there could be
stronger storms that form over the southeastern mountains and then
move out over the adjacent plains. The best MUCAPE will be
located over the Palmer Divide of values near 2500 J/kg by 3 PM.
Moreover, bulk shear will be increasing substantially out of the
southwest, with 40-50+ kts showing up in the NAM12. With this in
mind, the environment could become primed for some potentially
severe thunderstorms over areas of the I-25 corridor by late
afternoon through the early evening, especially over the Palmer
Divide where there is better CAPE. Main threat with these storms
given better DCAPE and inverted V soundings would be very strong
and gusty outflow winds of 60 to 70 mph possible, along with
moderate to large size hail of an inch in diameter or greater.
With better bulk shear in place, a severe storm could also form
over the Wet Mountains and move out over southern Pueblo County,
and could produce large hail of up to 2 inches in diameter if
this occurs. Thunderstorms may persist into the late evening hours
over the plains but should begin to weaken as they move eastward
over a less favorable environment. Northerly winds will keep
things cool on Sunday, with temperatures being around 10 degrees
below the seasonal average.
Monday through Tuesday...
The belt of better CAPE is going to remain over the plains into
Monday as the area of the low pressure to the southwest continues to
advect up more moisture in the mid levels over the region from the
southwest as it continues to slowly advance to the northeast over
the Great Basin. This U/L low will continue to fill and be absorbed
into a minor shortwave trough the will move over into Tuesday and
keep the residual moisture in place. Given the synoptic processes in
place and convection initiating over the mountains from orographic
lifting and then moving east, there will likely still be some
severe thunderstorms possible for both days, especially towards
the late afternoon and early evening hours as the low and mid
levels become the most destabilized. The northerly flow at the
surface will continue and be reinforced by the minor shortwave
moving over which will keep things on the cooler side for the
region into Tuesday. Given the amount of moisture in place, along
with the shortwave moving over the region, convection could also
continue into the nighttime hours on Tuesday into Wednesday
morning.
Wednesday through Friday...
Ensemble and deterministic models generally agree with an area of
troughing over the northwest that will continue to progress eastward
through this period, and ridging over the Great Plains, which
will keep the northwesterly flow at the 500 mb level in place and
a shortwave propagating through by the late part of the week. This
will allow for some more widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain by early
afternoon, and then get pushed out over the plains by later in the
afternoon and evening for each of these days. With some drier air
moving in due to downsloping winds, the lower levels will not be
as unstable throughout the course of the day over the plains, so
there will be a lesser chance of severe storms, however, training
storms over the higher terrain could present a concern for
possible burn scar flash flooding for these areas. Also, the
downsloping winds out of the west and the ridge building in
downstream will help to warm up things considerably by the end of
the week, with temperatures back near the seasonal average for
most (and perhaps slightly above for the plains) by Thursday.
-Stewey
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Thunderstorms will be possible at KCOS through 00z before activity
gradually shifts east of the terminal during the early evening.
Winds will be convectively driven through the afternoon with
localized gusts up to 40 kts possible near the stronger storms. Wind
directions could be erratic but will settle out to a northerly
component once convection moves east of the area. Thunderstorms
will develop over the mountains in the afternoon with a fairly good
chance for TSRA in the vicinity of the terminal during the
afternoon.
KPUB will be less likely to be directly impacted by TSRA this
afternoon but will likely see convectively driven wind gusts this
afternoon once thunderstorms roll east of the terminal. Erratic
gusts up to 40 kts will be possible near thunderstorms and
directions could be variable as storms push east of the terminal but
will likely settle in on a northwesterly component with speeds under
10 kts after they roll eastward. Winds on Saturday will remain
light before shifting to an easterly component in the afternoon with
a much lower chance for VCTS to impact the terminal.
KALS will see gusty southwest winds this afternoon from high based
cloud cover but will be less likely to see VCSH or VCTS. Winds will
decrease by early evening and remain light through Saturday morning.
-KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1205 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Appalachians will drift east
southeast across North Carolina early this morning, then push
offshore later today, allowing a warm front to lift northward
through the area. A warm southwest flow will continue through Sunday
morning, then an approaching cold front and upper level trough will
bring unsettled weather late Sunday through Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 PM Friday...
The latest satellite data indicated mainly clear skies as high
pressure continues to build into the region from the NW. As high
pressure slides into the region tonight, generally light winds and
clear skies will promote lows 8-14 degrees below normal in the mid
40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 132 PM Friday...
NW flow aloft will transition to zonal flow Sat afternoon. At the
surface, high pressure shift offshore over the western Atlantic,
promoting southwest return flow. The airmass warms some 20m from
today, supporting our highs near average in the mid to upper 80s.
The humidity will still be quite low, which should keep the overall
weather still comfortable for mid-June. Smoke/haze that may linger
around in the morning should start to slowly weaken and dissipate by
the evening/overnight hours as the flow becomes more southwesterly.
This should lead to improving air quality as we trend into Sat night
and Sun morning. The latest HRRR model also shows this trend. Some
mid-high clouds may drift in Sat night as troughing over the Great
Lakes sends energy into the Mid and lower Mississippi Valley Sun
morning. This along with southwest winds remaining stirred and a
warmer airmass should support warmer overnight lows near normal in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...
Upper pattern through the extended: Weak upper ridging will move
offshore Sunday ahead of a southern stream short wave poised to move
across the southeast through Monday. An anomalous upper low over the
Midwest will then squeeze through the Mid-Atlantic promoting periods
of unsettled weather through late next week.
Sunday/Monday: Sfc high pressure will move offshore overnight into
Sunday morning turning sfc flow esely. Aloft, zonal flow early on
will turn more swly as the short wave ejects into the deep south.
Confidence in a dry morning on Sunday continues to increase.
However, POPs will increase some across the west by Sunday
afternoon/evening as light/scattered rain (with embedded showers)
develops within an increasingly WAA regime. Locations further east
should largely remain dry through most of Sunday.
Monday will be the wettest day in the extended as anomalous low-
level moisture (PWAT of 1.75 to 2 in; ~120 % of normal) surges
across central NC. Ongoing WAA-driven rain (with embedded showers)
should increase from west to east starting early Monday morning.
Coverage and intensity could then increase as models are still
depicting the arrival of ~500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and increasing
divergence aloft Monday afternoon. Confidence in higher rain rates
seems highest for those south and east of Raleigh at this point
(coinciding with highest QPF through Tuesday morning). The strongest
instability axis will likely set up along and east of I-95
supporting better chances for higher-reflectivity showers/storms.
However, given that the strongest upper forcing will stay north into
VA, and the strongest inability axis to our south/east, QPF for this
event currently only calls for a few tenths to three quarters of an
inch. Additionally, given the recently dry conditions and the fast-
moving nature to this system, there does not appear to be much of a
flooding threat with this system. Lastly, bulk-layer shear still
appears relatively limited (~20 to 30 kts), and thus not expecting
much in terms of severe weather potential with this system either.
Tuesday through Friday: A weak cool front will clear the bulk of
the rain from west to east through Tuesday morning. After a
relative lull on Tuesday, a series of additional short-wave troughs
may bring additional rain chances Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
However, confidence in timing and spatial extent is low at this
point. Thus, maintained primarily diurnally-driven slight to chance
POPs in this period.
Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s through Friday,
with warm overnight lows generally in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1205 AM Saturday...
Confidence is high that VFR conditions and a light wind will
dominate for the next 24 hrs across central NC. Isolated shallow fog
patches are possible over bodies of water 06z-12z early this
morning, including near Lake Gaston in our far NE, but any such
development would be very minimal. High pressure will drift overhead
this morning, then push off the coast later today, allowing
light/variable winds to become from the S or SW at 10 kts or less
this afternoon and evening. Clouds will be sparse, just a few high
based cu this afternoon and perhaps a few mid and high clouds this
evening into tonight.
Looking beyond 06z Sun, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through much of Sun, although with increasing clouds ahead of an
approaching cold front and upper level trough. Sub-VFR conditions
are expected to move in Sun night, especially over the western
forecast area including the Triad, with these conditions lasting
through Mon morning with rain and isolated storms possible.
Conditions should improve late Mon although areas of sub-VFR may
linger into Mon night. VFR conditions should return behind the front
for Tue/Wed. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett/Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Hartfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
602 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Latest HRRR hi-res CAM continues to show at least scattered
convection developing across portions of the Trans PEcos and
Permian Basin later this afternoon and making an eastward movement
into West Central Texas this evening before it dissipates. The
NAMNEST from this morning showed a similar trend, although a
little farther north. In any case, will continue to carry small
POPs across the area mainly east of a Sonora to San Angelo to
Abilene line this evening. There will be an eastward limit to the
storms, with the loss of daytime heating eventually taking its
toll on them, but storms have consistently survived farther
eastward than the models have indicated over the last few weeks
and will assume some of that again.
A larger complex of storms is expected to the north across
Kansas, with the convection spreading southeast into Oklahoma as a
shortwave moves across the area. These storms will likely leave
an outflow boundary somewhere across north or central Texas, with
the shortwave helping spawn a weak dryline moving across West
Central Texas as well. Scattered storms are expected to
develop,and given the instability there is a threat of severe
storms once again across the area. Models are leaning more towards
a Heartland and areas east of there into central Texas event.
Otherwise, summer heat starting to return. Temperatures up in the
mid and upper 90s today, despite the vegetation greenness and
some evapotranspiration working to keep temperatures down. Will
flirt with or reach the 100 degree mark in many areas on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
High pressure builds across the area as high temperatures will
rise into the triple digits. An isolated rain shower cannot be
ruled out completely, but the chances are extremely low. Anything
that does develop will likely be the result of afternoon heating
(diurnally driven) and will not produce any impacts. Speaking of
impacts, the main issue into next week is the high temperatures
around 103-106 degrees. This may cause issues for those working
outdoors.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Currently, we have a a few thunderstorms to our west trying to
develop, as well as a few near the KJCT terminal. Will start KJCT
with a VCTS, and amend if necessary if storms become predominant
in that area. Otherwise, confidence is low in coverage of any
storms across the area tonight, so will continue with the VCTS as
opposed to any prevailing wording of TSRA. Storms should end
between 03Z and 06Z tonight, with just VFR high clouds across the
area afterward. For Saturday, expect mainly VFR conditions, and an
increase in southwesterly winds to 10 to 15 knots by mid morning,
with wind gusts to around 20 knots at most sites through tomorrow
evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 97 70 98 / 20 10 0 0
San Angelo 68 99 71 103 / 30 10 0 0
Junction 70 98 70 102 / 20 10 10 0
Brownwood 70 99 68 102 / 10 30 10 0
Sweetwater 68 98 69 98 / 30 10 0 0
Ozona 68 96 70 101 / 30 10 0 0
Brady 70 96 70 100 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20