Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/09/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1045 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry with low humidities this afternoon and Friday in the upper
teens and low 20s east of the Mississippi River.
- Chance (40-60%) for scattered showers and storms across the
region late Saturday with generally lighter amounts (30-40%
chance of greater than 0.25")
- Cooler temperatures early week with a slight chance (20-30%) for
precip on Monday in central Wisconsin.
This afternoon through tomorrow:
The dry pattern continues today with this prevailing dry air mass
which will keep relative humidities low today in the upper teens
and low 20 percent range resulting in an elevated fire risk. RAP
Vertically-Integrated smoke fields tend to keep upper level smoke
in our area throughout the day with gradual dispersing going into
the overnight. This will keep our skies hazy most of the day today
and maybe slightly reduce our temperatures due to the inhibition
of incoming solar radiation.
Overnight lows are expected to be slightly below average due to
radiative cooling and continued dry conditions. Generally most
locations should drop into the low 50s along and west of the
Mississippi River with lows widespread in the middle and upper 40s
east of the Mississippi River with our typically cold areas as low
as the middle 30s. Some isolated frost may be possible in the
cranberry bog areas where near-saturation can be reached. Tomorrow
should see fairly similar conditions during the daytime hours with
RHs in the 20s east of the Mississippi River.
Weekend Precipitation Chances:
A shortwave trough is still expected to work its way through the
weekend as guidance has been projecting over the past few days.
Generally speaking guidance shows a reasonable chance (40-60%) for
scattered shower and storm activity however there is more
uncertainty for precipitation amounts. 850mb moisture transport in
both the 08.12 NAM and GFS is very limited and warm cloud depths are
low (<3km). Additionally, NAM guidance suggests minimal CAPE (100-
200 J/kg) in forecast soundings for this time period indicating
weaker updrafts and no severe threat when also considering minimal
shear. As a result, EC ensembles tend to show widespread one to two
tenth amounts for our region with occasional ensembles showing
amounts as high as half to three-quarters of an inch, reflecting the
general convective and scattered nature of the precipitation. EC
ensembles are reasonably confident with medium probabilities
(60-70%) for amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch but have much
lower confidence (10-20%) for amounts higher. The 12z GFS
Ensembles tend to favor a wetter solution with higher
probabilities for both amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch
(80-90%) and half an inch (30- 40%).
Guidance has also tended to want to move PoPs later in the day on
Saturday as compared with guidance yesterday. While initial
guidance kept most PoPs later Friday and into Saturday afternoon,
the trend has continued to be later into the day on Saturday with
current guidance reflecting peak chances for precipitation being
into the late afternoon Saturday through the overnight.
Start of Next Week:
As the trough progresses through our region over the weekend, a
closed upper-level low will break off from the wave somewhere over
the Great Lakes region. Current model trends have been leaning more
towards developing the low further to the west with EC guidance
wanting to have the low form over central Wisconsin. As a result,
PoPs have been increased in many of our Wisconsin locations for late
Monday to reflect this trend. Forecast QPF tends to remain on the
lighter side and precipitation amounts still remain uncertain at
this time.
Temperatures at the start of next week should trend cooler after the
combination of the passage of the boundary this weekend and
increased cloud cover over our region. High temperatures on Sunday
and Monday could be in the upper 60s and low 70s as a result.
However, there is some difficulty determining how cool it will be on
Sunday and Monday due to its dependence on the position of the upper-
level low. A general warming trend as the week progresses with a
ridge once again slowly building in, bringing back in this dry
pattern for the remainder of next week providing little relief for
the increasing drought conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Very quiet weather pattern with a large area of surface high
pressure over the region that will sink south toward the Ohio
River Valley through Friday. Very little in the way of cloud
cover expected with light winds gradually coming around to the
south/southwest as the high dips to the south but with speeds well
under 10 knots.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
The latest US Drought Monitor has increased drought conditions for
many portions of our region into both D1: Moderate Drought and D2:
Severe Drought.
More information can be found on our latest drought statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=DGT&issuedby=ARX
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...Naylor
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
While scattered to numerous showers and storms persist across
much of the area, the intensity continues to trend down. The main
concerns right now may be transitioning to hydro in two areas. One
area is west southwest of Watford City along the Montana border
where a cluster of storms continues to remain almost stationary.
The other looks to be around Foster county where there is a bit of
a training component to the storms moving through. We will have to
watch these areas closely for flooding issues over the next couple
hours. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and storms will
persist through the night. While a strong storm or two will remain
possible with small hail, the severe threat should be fairly low
now. For this update, we updated the precipitation and sky cover
forecast through the night and blended in the latest observations
of the sensible weather fields.
UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue across much of
western and central North Dakota. The environment today has been
very similar to previous days, but there has been a touch more
available instability and shear. Storm coverage has also been
greater. As storms continue to slowly move to the east, they
should move into a slightly better shear environment, with
effective layer values in the 25 to 30 knot range over the Turtle
Mountains and down into the James River Valley per SPC
mesoanalysis. However, as we continue to approach sunset, we will
start to lose diurnal heating which will eventually limit the
intensity of these storms. Until then, a few strong to marginally
severe storms will continue to pulse up and down here and there.
Hail to the size of half dollars and winds to 60 mph will be the
main threats under the strongest storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Scattered showers and thunderstorms highlight the short term
forecast.
A strong omega block continues to characterize the synoptic pattern,
although the upper ridge portion has been stretched northwest as the
western trough tries to break down the ridge. At the surface, a low
pressure was centered over southwest into south central North
Dakota under the upper high. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have been ongoing much of the day across northern North Dakota,
with daytime heating aiding in further development across
southwest North Dakota early this afternoon.
The expectation is for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening, with steep low-
level lapse rates and high instability due to dew points in the
lower 60s. The limiting factor for strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms is once again the wind shear, although it is stronger
than yesterday. RAP-based mesoanalysis shows 25 knots of effective
bulk shear across the north central and into eastern North Dakota,
while slightly stronger shear around 30 knots is analyzed across
eastern Montana, while across southwest North Dakota shear is only
in the 10 to 15 knot range. There could be a few storms,
especially north central and east, that mature enough to become a
short- lived marginally severe thunderstorm, with the main
hazards as quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. Slow storm
motion and high PWATs will again lead to the potential for
locally heavy rainfall.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through
much of the night, although decreasing instability will strongly
limit the severe potential. We did add in the mention of patchy fog
across the northwest late overnight into Friday morning, with
forecast soundings show a shallow layer of saturation, with mist
reducing visibilities the past few mornings. Overnight lows will be
mild, in the lower 60s.
As the surface low drifts south through the day Friday, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue, although
decreased instability and shear should limit the threat ceiling. A
weakening thermal ridge and approaching cold front will start the
cooling trend for the weekend, with highs generally in the lower
80s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Seasonable temperatures and drier conditions are expected through
the weekend, with a slight warming trend through most of next work
week.
Ensemble guidance members favor the upper ridge portion of this
week`s omega block to get constricted over the Canadian Prairies,
with closed lows off the California coast and over the far northeast
CONUS. At the surface, an extensive high pressure is progged to sink
south behind a cold front and settle over the Northern Plains,
bringing drier and cooler air for the weekend. Blended guidance
still produces some slight chance PoPs across southwest North
Dakota to start Saturday, but these should taper off through the
day as the surface high continues expanding. There is high
confidence in forecast highs in the 70s for both Saturday and
Sunday, although Saturday could be a bit breezy as the surface
pressure gradient increases some as the high moves in.
With the cold front, the latest HRRR and RAP smoke forecast models
are both showing a slight increase in both upper and near-surface
smoke, which does make sense given where the cooler air is coming
from. At this point it doesn`t look like anything impactful, but a
white tinge to the sky could be noticeable.
A warming trend is expected through most of next work week, with the
upper air pattern primarily characterized by two weak / somewhat
cutoff lows over the western and eastern CONUS, and broad ridging
across the northwest and north central. Cluster analysis shows
general agreement among ensemble members, although there are hints
that upper flow across the central CONUS could end up very weak.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
much of western and central North Dakota. Most sites will at least
see some risk of thunderstorms in the vicinity this evening. The
two sites most likely to see some potential impacts will be KMOT
and KJMS as storms continue to approach. Over the next couple of
hours, at least some severe thunderstorm potential will exist
north and east with hail up to the size of half dollars and wind
gusts up to 60 mph. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are also possible
under any heavier cores that move overhead. Storms will eventually
diminish around and after sunset, leading to VFR conditions at
all sites. Guidance suggests that stratus may move into portions
of the area Friday morning and into the early afternoon hours, but
for now will keep ceilings above MVFR categories. Winds may become
gusty and erratic around any showers or storms in the vicinity.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...Jones
LONG TERM...Jones
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
948 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Showery and cool conditions will continue through the end of the
week as our region remains under the influence of a large upper
level low. The pattern will briefly change over the weekend as an
upper level ridge will bring drier weather with more seasonable
temperatures for Sunday and Monday, but unsettled conditions look to
return thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 943 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Showers have waned in both coverage and
intensity as expected, and this trend will continue overnight.
Cloud cover still remains fairly widespread at this point, but
there are some breaks, especially over eastern VT. Some fog has
already been noted in locations that have had briefly clear
skies, but current thinking is that clouds will remain
extensive enough to keep fog fairly localized. Have therefore
kept the mention of fog out of the forecast. Temperatures are on
track to bottom out in the 40s to around 50 by daybreak. Overall
the forecast has this all covered, so only changes were minor
tweaks to cloud cover to match the latest satellite trends.
Previous discussion...The sprawling upper-level low over New
England continues to bring rather dreary weather to the region.
Showers will gradually diminish through the overnight hours, however
some continued activity cannot be ruled out. There is also the
possibility of some localized fog overnight tonight if enough
clearing occurs given the abundance of low-level moisture and calm
winds, however there is low confidence. Temperatures tonight will
continue to be seasonably cool, with lows mainly in the 40s.
Friday will be almost identical to today, with the showers
blossoming again in the afternoon, however the showers will be more
terrain focused. Forecast soundings show some greater instability
tomorrow afternoon compared to previous days, which will allow for
some possible thunder. The lack of shear and low CAPE values will
keep any thunderstorms that do develop below severe criteria,
however some small hail or graupel is possible with the cold pool
aloft. Similar to tonight, shower activity will lessen with the loss
of daytime heating. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees
warmer than the last few days, with highs in the low to mid 60s.
Overnight lows will continue to be on the cold side, with
temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...Yet another round of showers and even a
slight chance for a few thunderstorms will exist on Saturday another
weak disturbance rotates around the upper level low that is slowly
exiting to the east. Given temperature warming near or above 70, a
few hundred J/kg of CAPE develop during the afternoon hours across
portions of the North Country which may help a few rumbles of
thunders to be embedded with increased shower activity. No organized
convection is expected but these storms could produce locally higher
precipitation totals. In terms of smoke, all HRRR and RAP extended
runs show elevated smoke overhead during the morning hours but
little to no at the surface. Given the wind vectors, it seems
Saturday should generally be fine from an air quality perspective.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...Drier weather associated with shortwave
ridging should bring about a period of drier weather on Sunday.
However, it`s looking like our winds will be out of the
north/northwest which could bring smoke from the wildfires to our
northwest back towards the region. The amount of smoke will be
highly dependent on the fire activity. Cooler and wetter
temperatures have limited additional smoke output but that could
change by late weekend as we warm up and begin to dry out. Rain
chances will increase as we head into Monday night as a maturing
surface low over the Great Lakes pushes a strong warm front through
the region during the overnight and early morning hours. A cold
front will be on the heels of the warm front with a cold frontal
passage expected overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Longwave
troughing is expected to remain in place much of the week which will
likely keep at least a slight chance of showers in the forecast but
won`t be anything like what we are currently seeing with the strong
closed low overhead.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A challenging TAF period in terms of the
forecast with scattered showers continuing to lower visibilities
across the North Country this evening and light northwesterly
or variable winds under low pressure. Main idea is that MVFR
cigs and vis are anticipated for many of the next 24 hours at
all sites, with most sites prevailing or tempo of IFR for a few
hours. Overall cigs will lower throughout the next few hours
and be lowest tonight, either restricting visibility as low
stratus clouds or breaking enough to trigger fog development in
the valleys, which would also restrict visibility. Best chances
for IFR conditions 06Z-12Z Friday, with cigs lifting and vis
increasing gradually after that period. Many sites have the
potential to return to VFR cigs tomorrow afternoon, but showers
will resurge later tomorrow around 16Z-20Z Friday (similar to
today) and could again cause fluctuations in cig and vis.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Storm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
734 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air associated with approaching high pressure will be
in control of our weather through Saturday, with seasonable
temperatures expected. Moisture will return Sunday into early
next week as a low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley.
This will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Monday. Diurnally driven thunderstorms are possible
through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Isolated convection confined to a surface trough well south of
the forecast area (FA), save an isolated light shower across
the NE FA. Fair weather expected overnight with skies becoming
clear to mostly clear as high pressure continues to move
southward. Temperatures will likely fall quickly tonight with
forecast lows in the mid to upper 50s north and lower 60s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Friday night...Closed upper low over New England
will finally begin to move slowly to the northeast. Dry
northwest flow aloft through the day. Downslope flow appears
weak but strong subsidence expected after short wave trough
moves through early in the afternoon. Cooler than normal
temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s. Expect mostly
clear sky behind the short wave trough in the afternoon. The low
dew points and clear sky should set up favorable radiational
cooling conditions. The local radiation scheme suggest many
areas will see temps fall into mid to upper 50s Friday night.
Saturday and Saturday night...Zonal flow aloft. The dry air
mass will remain relatively dry through the day with continued
subsidence. With warm advection in the afternoon as low level
flow becomes southwest, temperatures closer to normal mid to
upper 80s, perhaps 90 degrees. But moisture will return Saturday
night as ridge moves off the coast. Precipitable water increase
to around 1.6 inches in the CSRA toward daybreak Sunday. With
increasing low level moisture, the overnight lows will be 5-10
degrees warmer than Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The pattern changes quickly Sunday and more active weather
expected early in the period. Another closed low will be setting
up over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region with the trough axis
south through the lower Mississippi Valley. Developing surface
low over the mid Mississippi Valley moving northeast with
trailing cold front to the south. The models continue to suggest
a somewhat robust short wave trough will approach the area late
Sunday with height falls with resulting steep low to mid level
lapse rates. Precipitable water increase to 1.75 inches or
higher. With moderate instability, and some increase in mid
level winds, a severe threat appears possible Sunday afternoon
and evening and again on Monday ahead of cold front in the
Tennessee Valley moving slowly toward the region. Shear not too
strong but likely sufficient for some organized strong
convection. Beyond Monday, a more zonal flow pattern is
broadly expected to develop, with a series of weak shortwaves
cutting through. So a somewhat active summer pattern from a
diurnal precip perspective is expected with near average temps;
NAEFS summarizes this well with above average moisture and near
average temps and heights through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR Conditions expected the next 24 hours.
Satellite images and loops showing scattered to broken mid-level
cloudiness across portions of the Upstate of SC, with additional
scattered mid-level clouds across the southern CSRA. Clouds
remaining vfr overnight and through Friday, with some periods of
broken mid-level strato-cu possible overnight.
As for visibilities, some smoke from Canadian wildfires does
appear as a slight haze on the satellite across the forecast
area, but impacts are currently minimal with surface obs all
showing visibilities over p6sm. More significant visibility
restrictions remain well outside of the cwa, further north
across NC and VA. Majority of the near term guidance keeps
visibilities vfr through the night, and have elected to keep
with that trend for now. However, with enough smoke particles in
the air, can not rule out a period of reduced visibilities late
tonight. The hrrr indicates that likelihood across portions of
the coastal plain late tonight, but does keep it all east of
ogb/ags/dnl. Will monitor trends through the night though.
Winds light to calm overnight, then winds eventually begin to
increase and turn from northeasterly to northwesterly from late
morning into the afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through at least Saturday night. Another
approaching storm system may produce restrictions on Sunday with
unsettled weather continuing into Monday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
733 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered over the New England states will move
offshore by Saturday allowing high pressure to slide from the
Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. Low pressure will develop over
the Midwest Sunday and slowly move through the region Monday
into Tuesday, while also pulling a cold front through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Smoke and haze continue to be the biggest story to close out the
work week as dozens of fires continue to burn in eastern Canada, and
a prevailing northerly flow of cool, dry, Canadian air drives these
plumes through the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic states.
The culprit for this persistent flow pattern is a huge mid/upper
closed low centered over New England embedded within a deep longwave
trough over the eastern CONUS. This combined with broad surface high
pressure over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes is keeping
northerly flow across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Mid-
level clouds will continue to rotate southward across north central
and NE Ohio and NW PA through at least the first half of tonight
before the aforementioned surface high begins to nudge farther east
helping the clouds to slowly dissipate from west to east. Smoke
plume forecasts from the latest HRRR runs continue to bring another
wave of denser smoke southward through the region this evening into
Friday morning, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA. However, confidence
on the timing and thickness of this is low since the cloud cover is
blocking our view of the current location and extent of the smoke,
so we can only go off of a model. The HRRR has also slowed down the
onset of the smoke and decreased the amount of near surface smoke.
Best estimates are for this to move into NW PA after 22Z then
gradually sink south and southwest into NE Ohio after 00Z, with off
and on smoke then continuing through Friday morning. Most
visibilities should stay above 5 miles since trends in the model
have been for most of the smoke to stay elevated, but periods of 3
to 5 mile visibilities are possible in far NE Ohio and NW PA. Kept
areawide haze in the forecast through Friday afternoon, along with
pockets of smoke, but this will be most concentrated in the
aforementioned NE areas. Otherwise, isolated showers could rotate
into far NE Ohio and NW PA at times tonight and Friday as some mid-
level moisture drops through, but given the dry low-level airmass,
most areas will stay dry with any rain likely a couple hundredths
of an inch or less.
Lows tonight will be unseasonably cold again in the upper 40s/low
50s with highs Friday limited to the mid/upper 60s in NE Ohio and NW
PA, low 70s in north central Ohio, and low/mid 70s in NW Ohio.
By Friday night, the old mid/upper low will finally eject out of New
England allowing heights to start rising across the region. This
will allow the surface high to slide through the Ohio Valley and
finally start changing the flow. This should start taking the
smoke/haze away from the region, and skies are expected to be mostly
clear Friday night with lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
We start the short term period on Saturday with an upper-level ridge
overhead and surface high pressure centered over the southern
Appalachians. Warm air advection on the backside of this high will
bring temperatures back up to near normal and even slightly above
normal for Saturday through Sunday. These features depart to east as
an upper-level low moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, with
its trough extending southward into the Mississippi Valley. Low
pressure is expected to develop in advance of this upper-level
trough, lifting from the mid-Mississippi Valley Sunday morning to
the southern Great Lakes and/or northern Ohio Valley by Sunday
night. Modest moisture content will accompany this low pressure
system but forcing from the right-entrance region of an 80-90
knot upper-level jet and the approaching upper-level low should
take advantage of all available moisture with this system.
Compared to the previous forecast, the upper-level low appears
to be stronger, with a more favorable low pressure track across
our forecast area, so have increased PoPs to include a period of
80% Sunday night. At this point, this initial round of
precipitation may produce up to a half inch, though there are
some ensemble members that have an isolated inch. This rain will
be beneficial but not sure it will be enough to improve our
ongoing moderate drought.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Monday, this upper-level low slowly moves east across the
Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. The associated
surface low lifts north to Ontario on Monday before retrograding
back east to central/southern Michigan Monday night, lingering
there through Tuesday. Precipitation from Sunday night is likely
to linger into early Monday especially across the eastern half
of the forecast area. Thunderstorms my occur across the eastern
part of the area if this precipitation lingers into the
afternoon. As this low retrogrades, there will probably be a
break in precipitation Monday evening through Tuesday morning,
with increasing precipitation chances once again Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night as that low moves back east.
There is a decent chance of more appreciable rain with this,
with ensemble average around 0.1-0.25" Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Uncertainty exists with the Wednesday through Thursday
forecast but generally expected very weak ridging in between low
pressure systems.
Temperatures generally expected to be below normal through the
long term period, with highs only forecast to be in the low 70s
on Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday especially has the chance to get
lower as that upper-level low moves overhead. Wednesday and
Thursday we should see a gradual climb back to near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR remains at all TAF sites this evening. Guidance is still
hinting at another round of smoke to move south across the
forecast area tonight. Opted to keep most reductions to
visibility minimal across TAF sites overnight tonight with 6SM
in HZ at all sites except KERI which has a TEMPO group of 3SM
overnight tonight. Both RAP and HRRR near-surface and
vertically integrated smoke have shown the best potential for
smoke to mainly impact KERI, but can`t rule out patchy smoke at
KCAK/KYNG. Outside of any smoke, isolated showers are possible
mainly at KERI/KYNG tonight and tomorrow but kept any VCSH or
-SHRA mentions out of the TAFs.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in haze through Saturday. Non-VFR
possible with showers and storms on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally quiet weather, though weak onshore flow may result in
slightly choppy conditions in the nearshore through Friday
morning. Southwest flow of around 10 knots develops Friday
night as weak high pressure passes to the south, with southwest
flow continuing through Saturday. Easterly flow of around 15
knots develops on Sunday and Sunday night in advanced of an
approaching low pressure system.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Saunders
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1124 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Air quality will slowly improve through Friday, but will still
be in the unhealthy category through Friday evening. Scattered
to numerous rain showers will impact mainly the northern half of
central PA this evening.
Temperatures will be modestly cooler through Friday with an
uptick in shower activity again expected Friday afternoon and
evening. A warmup over the weekend will likely precede much
needed rainfall early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers still traversing portions of central, northern
and eastern PA late this evening, and continue to slowly
decrease in intensity and coverage.bShower activity should wane
by late tonight with another relatively cool overnight period
and below climo minimum temps in the 40-55F range respectively
from North to South.
The DEP has extended the Code ORANGE Air Quality Alert through
midnight Friday night for smoke particulate concentrations. Air
quality has improved over yesterday, but is/will remain in the
unhealthy categpru across PA on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Similar day to Thursday expected to end the week, as main
shortwave trough axis rotates through CPA on Friday. The best
combination of moisture/lift/instability will lead to expanded
coverage of diurnal convection late Friday morning and Friday
afternoon, which is reflected in the NBM PPI.
RAP smoke model indicates the highest concentrations of near-
sfc smoke will be south of the area on Friday and this should
lead to improving air quality/visibility (not as hazy).
Max temps will warm by a few to several deg F over the Central
and North, but will be similar or a few deg F cooler in the
south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Although a few isolated showers or a t-storm can`t be ruled out
over the northeast quad of CWA Saturday afternoon, rising
heights and warming aloft point toward a mainly dry and warmer
start to the second weekend of June.
Max temps trend +10F day over day with highs back to seasonal
levels in the 70-80F range. The trend toward milder temps
continues through Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.
The various ensemble prediction systems remain consistent in
their depiction of the large-scale pattern heading into the
weekend and early next week. The pattern will consist of a low
amplitude upper trough axis across eastern Canada and the
northeastern CONUS, with an upper ridge axis holding firm over
the middle of the CONUS and central Canada. Resultant NW flow
aloft will keep any sustained heat well west of the Commonwealth,
with a progressive surface cold front likely to cross the
region Monday. The timing on this frontal passage has been
inconsistent between model runs, but the most recent guidance
suggests Monday afternoon. However, transition from current
blocking pattern is still not fully certain, and so what we can
say for sure is that Sunday into Monday may present the best
CHANCE of rain we`ll see for the next week, but it`s far from
certain at this early time.
As for the daily sensible weather, temperatures next week should
remain seasonal for the end of spring and the beginning of
summer. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon in association with diurnal
heating and a weak upper level shortwave, but dry conditions are
expected to be prevailing through most of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few isolated -SHRA continue to move from northwest to
southeast through central PA. A quick - SHRA is possible at KIPT
as these diminish.
Smoke from the Canadian wildfires will continue to affect the
airspace through Friday. Widespread MVFR conds (either with
smoke (mainly across the Lower Susq) and or strato cu clouds/HZ
over the central and northern parts of the state.
Outlook...
Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...Slight chance of PM SHRA and TSRA.
Mon...Higher likelihood of SHRA and TSRA, especially PM.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Travis/Bowen
AVIATION...Tyburski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Key Messages:
- Locally heavy rainfall which could produce flooding in some
areas is possible late Friday afternoon through Saturday night.
- The rain forecast Saturday is uncertain. There is a chance the
best rainfall will occur south and west of wrn and ncntl
Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
A stationary front draped across ncntl Nebraska will be the focus
for isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and
tonight. Most of this activity will remain across ncntl Nebraska.
There`s a chance isolated storms will develop across wrn Nebraska
where cumulus congestus is underway.
The front will begin sagging south and west through nrn Nebraska
Friday afternoon and Friday night. The short term model blend and
the RAP model were the basis for POPs. The RAP model appears to have
a good handle on the southward motion of the front and it is in this
area the highest POPs are listed. An upper level trof of cold air
will be dropping south through the nrn Plains for additional support.
Although the moisture transport in the RAP model appears relatively
modest relative to the events of this past May, the 850-300mb RH
will increase to around 80 percent, with PWAT north of 1.25
inches. Lapse rates are less than 7 C/KM and this should support
some level of warm air PCPN processes. Thus, there is the
potential for locally heavy rainfall across the north Friday night
and perhaps across the south Saturday night.
SPC suggested a marginal severe weather risk for severe wind/hail
across ncntl Nebraska late Friday and this is based on the 2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE in the RAP model plus the 20 to 30 kts of shear. It is
worth noting this shear and instability axis extends far to the west
to near the Black Hills and areas along and north of highway 20
across wrn Nebraska. So, if the model is correct, there is the
potential for at least strong thunderstorms across all of nrn
Nebraska late Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
The forecast Saturday night is uncertain with regard to whether
or not the front will activate across swrn Nebraska as shown by
the NAM or will the front, moisture and forcing go sailing south
into KS leaving this area mostly dry as shown by the ECM. The
blended forecast allows for activation and later forecasts can
refine this feature. There is little change in the forecast
Sunday. Dry and cool air will move in behind the cold front and
rain chances vanish.
An upper level low across the Great Basin will move slowly east and
present a rain chance to wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday night and
Tuesday. There is a chance the bulk of the UA support and rainfall
will pass south through KS. The GFS and ECM seem to be hinting at
this. POPs have backed down the "high" chance for this forecast.
The rest of the extended forecast features isolated to low end
chance POPs for what appears to be weakly forced, mostly diurnally
driven convection. The risk of severe weather Sunday through
Thursday appears low. The ECM and GFS show a belt of strong
subtropical westerlies across the srn Plains-from KS south into
Texas. It is in this area that storm development would be most
active.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect northern and
central Neb terminals this evening, generally KVTN to KBBW and
east. Activity will primarily wane after dark, then redevelop
tomorrow afternoon. Coverage is deemed to isolated in the
southwest (KLBF) to warrant a VC or tempo mention. Light winds
will become south/southeast after daybreak.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
931 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be stalled offshore through Friday. High
pressure will then build into the area over the weekend. A cold
front will impact the area Monday, potentially lingering nearby
through midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 930 PM Thursday... Have some ongoing isolated shower
activity still around Downeast Carteret and across portions of
the southern Outer Banks but this activity should move offshore
and out of the area within the next hour or so. Skies have
slowly begun to clear outside of some pesky mid level clouds
that are also moving E with the shower activity. This activity
should continue out of the FA within the next few hours allowing
for clear skies across much if not all of the CWA tonight. Winds
across our inland areas have become light and variable as well.
With good radiational cooling still forecast across the area
ended up lowering near term temps given current obs and lowered
lows a degree or so inland and several degrees across the
northern OBX.
Otherwise, mainly clear skies will prevail overnight with light
winds and could see patchy shallow fog develop late but dry air
just above the surface should keep the fog shallow and will
burn off quickly after sunrise. Good radiational cooling allow
for lows in the low to mid 50s across most places with a few low
60s along the OBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 430 PM Thursday...A final shortwave trough pivots through
the cyclonic flow aloft on Friday. Some guidance showing
isolated showers or thunderstorms developing once again across
the northern tier with steep low level lapse rates, however the
airmass will be drier with PW values around 0.75" or less and
dew points mainly in the 50s to around 60 allow for minimal
instability so any storms that develop will be weak. HRRR smoke
continues to show impacts from Canadian wildfires across NC and
continue to keep haze in the forecast, although NC DENR is
forecasting a code Yellow across ENC for Friday with the current
AQA expiring at midnight tonight. Highs Friday expected in the
lower 80s most inland areas and mid 70s across the OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Thu...Weak backdoor cold front will bring limited
rain chances Friday afternoon, with dry weather expected over
the weekend. A cold front will bring showers and storms to the
area Monday and Monday night, with significant forecast
uncertainty for the middle of next week as the front could stall
nearby or lift back over the area.
Thursday night through Sunday...A weak upper shortwave will
cross the area later Friday, with a surface backdoor cold front
working down the coast through the day. Though moisture will be
limited, these two features could be enough to spawn some
scattered showers across NE NC, including the Pamlico-Albemarle
Peninsula. Otherwise, mild temps and dry conditions expected
for the rest of the area.
Subsidence aloft and surface high pressure building in from the
south and east bring dry weather over the weekend. Temps
trending from several degrees below normal Friday to near normal
Saturday and above normal Sunday as high pressure moves off the
coast and WAA develops.
Monday through Thursday...Stacked low pressure deepens over the
Great Lakes early next week, with the associated cold front
bringing widespread showers and storms to ENC later Monday into
Monday night. There are several variables that remain uncertain
with this system, but the severe potential will require
monitoring in the coming days.
The front could stall near, or maybe even over the area through
the middle of next week, but limited low level moisture will
keep limited rain chances in the forecast during this time.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 715 PM Thursday... VFR conditions continue across almost
all of ENC this evening with the lone exception being directly
behind some ongoing shower activity across Dare, Hyde, and
Washington Counties where a brief period of MVFR ceilings is
noted. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions to return to the
entire CWA within the next hour or two. Mainly clear skies and
light winds will bring good radiational cooling tonight which is
supportive of fog development, but very dry air will reside
just above the surface and widespread fog is not expected.
Guidance continues to support this thought process as well
keeping the fog threat limited at best. All that said, still
think shallow ground fog will be possible with vsbys
occasionally dropping to IFR/LIFR but impacts to operations will
likely be minimal and this ground fog should burn off quickly
after sunrise. Will continue to keep a period of MVFR vsbys in
the TAF tonight. Pred VFR conditions expected Friday with only
isolated showers or thunderstorms possible across northern rtes.
Elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires expected to continue
hazy conditions Friday with MVFR vsbys possible at times.
LONG TERM /Fri night through Tue/...
As of 345 Am Thu...VFR prevails late week through the weekend.
An approaching cold front could bring lowering ceilings and the
potential for flight restrictions Monday into Monday night, with
widespread showers and some thunderstorms also expected.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 445 PM Thursday...Weak pressure gradients continue across
the waters through the period with variable winds less than 15
kt and seas around 1 to 3 ft.
LONG TERM /Thu through Mon/...
As of 345 AM Thu...Weak backdoor cold front crossing the area
Friday will bring a modest N to NE wind surge, but still only
light to moderate winds expected Friday through Sunday with
gusty conditions nearshore as the sea breeze develops each
afternoon. The gradient could tighten enough to eventually
necessitate SCAs ahead of the next front Monday, with moderate
to breezy S to SW winds potentially persisting through the
middle of next week.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/RCF
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...CB/RCF
MARINE...SK/CB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1008 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
The forecast is on track with only minor updates made. The main
trend is that dew points have increased quicker than expected,
largely due to radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and
calm winds. Conditions have been quite dry, but fog is at least possible
in northeastern portions of the area where dew point depressions
are already around 10 degrees or less. Haze was also left in the
forecast as the HRRR smoke density product indicates at least some
to be present with visibility reductions unlikely. Other elements
were updated based on the latest high-res model guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Key Messages:
1. Dry with below normal temperatures and comfortable dew points.
Skies may continue to be somewhat hazy through tomorrow.
Discussion:
Scattered mid-level clouds this afternoon are expected to
dissipate some as they transition to higher clouds tonight and
tomorrow. Much drier air has been filtering in for much of the day
with many dew point temperatures in the 40`s. Because of this,
dense fog like this morning, will not be an issue. Skies may still
remain hazy as the upper level flow pattern slowly changes by
this weekend, shifting the plume of wildfire smoke aloft away
from our area.
Besides the atmospheric conditions that have made the area a code
yellow the past couple of days according to the Air Quality
Index, we will remain dry with very comfortable dew point
temperatures and highs tomorrow trending a bit warmer, but still
below normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Key Messages:
1. Dry Friday night into Saturday night.
2. Showers and storms expected Sunday into Monday.
3. Additional showers and storms possible during the Tuesday through
Thursday time frame but details are still very uncertain.
Discussion:
The broad upper level trough over the Eastern US to start will
continue to shift off to the east Friday night into Saturday, and
short wave ridging will build over our area Saturday. We will see a
dry start to the long term period with a cool night Friday night
then temperatures near seasonal normals on Saturday. The HRRR smoke
guidance goes through Friday night and suggests there could be at
least some improvement, so for now will not extend the Haze through
the night. However, the haze certainly may be needed to be added
into at least Saturday as we get closer.
Another upper trough dropping out of Canada will cut off over the
Great Lakes Sunday night before gradually drifting east. At the
surface, a cold front will move through our area sometime in the
Sunday night/Monday time frame, and numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of and near this front Sunday into
Monday. Right now QPF values for this system are generally in the
three quarters of an inch to near 2 inches range, but there still is
quite a bit of uncertainty on the details that far out.
For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame models continue to show
poor consistency and agreement. There is some agreement that one or
more short waves will move across with additional showers/storms
possible during the period, but timing is very much in disagreement.
The operational GFS continues to lead the wet camp but much of the
data including the GEFS, suggests it may be drier more in line with
the ECMWF. Will not argue much with the NBM, so will have slight
chance to chance PoPs in all three days with the highest PoPs on
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
VFR conditions will prevail with fairly light and variable winds.
Any clouds will likely be above 5,000 feet with no ceilings
expected. Fog is not anticipated but definitely at least a
possibility near TRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 83 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 80 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 76 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
AVIATION...BW
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
Key Messages:
- Showers and thunderstorms may spread south throughout the day
Friday and some storms could be strong by afternoon.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Saturday, when
a strong cold front brings good chances for more widespread rainfall.
- Drying out Sunday with cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
A weak cold front extends north/south across central Nebraska where
scattered showers and a few strong thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon along a narrow corridor of higher CAPE values. Shear
still remains limited and we expect any remaining activity to
diminish as the sun goes down leaving much of our area quiet
through the evening.
On Friday, the latest CAM guidance continues to show a cluster of
storms from previous evening convection over South Dakota turn into
an MCV that holds together and moves southeast into eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa throughout the morning and into afternoon hours.
SWODY2 does put us in a Marginal Risk with potential for an isolated
strong severe gust and large hail into the evening hours. The HRRR
in particular continues to latch onto this.
Saturday through Wednesday:
Saturday brings the best chance for widespread rain as a cold front
moves southeast through the region ahead of a potent mid-level vort
lobe. This front will be moving into a very moist atmosphere where
PWATs are around 150% of normal. Depending on antecedent
conditions from Friday`s potential rainfall, additional heavy
rainfall on Saturday could produce some localized flooding despite
mostly dry conditions across the area, especially across
southeast Nebraska. Showers and storms should move southeast out
of the area by Sunday morning.
A cool down is expected on Sunday and will linger into Monday as
cooler high pressure moves in from the north. Drier weather and
highs generally in the 70s will last through Monday.
Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for the remainder of the
week with off and on shower and thunderstorm chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
VFR conditions expected through the period. Potential for
scattered TSRA will increase Friday afternoon. Possible that MVFR
conditions may briefly exist with more intense storms as they
pass through the TAF sites.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...DEE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1037 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will meander over New England through Friday
night. The low pressure shifts away from the area on Saturday
with high pressure building in through the weekend. The high
pushes offshore late Sunday into Monday. A frontal system
impacts the area from the beginning into the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Temperatures and dew points have been running lower than
forecast, especially across the outlying areas, as winds have
become light to near calm. Adjusted temperatures and dew points
through the overnight, and as a result also lowered overnight
lows. Also increased cloud cover.
The smoke and haze has improved, with most locations no longer
reporting any restrictions.
Haze remains in the forecast across the region as some smoke
aloft is still possible. Air quality alerts remain in effect for
Orange and Putnam counties until midnight and for the NYC
metro, Long Island, Rockland, Westchester, NE NJ and S CT
through midnight Friday night.
Otherwise, closed upper low and associated surface low meanders
over New England into tonight. There were still a few showers to
the north of the region, and a light brief shower or sprinkle
remains possible, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low continues to meander over New England on Friday.
The main difference between Thursday and Friday will be a much
more defined shortwave that rotates around the upper low. This
will help keep weak low pressure at the surface. Winds in the
morning look to be light NE but will gradually see a surface
trough set up aiding in convergence. There will be scattered to
broken clouds through the day, but the upper low will aid in
fairly steep lapse rates. There are differences among the
modeling with amount of instability by afternoon with the
several CAMs (NAM3-km, WRF-ARW, NSSL-WRF, and HRRR) showing an
average of about 500 J/kg. The FV3-WRF and the GFS are
indicating less CAPE. However, the cold pocket aloft from the
upper low and decent forcing should be enough to initiate at
least scattered convection in the afternoon and evening. CSU
machine learning probabilities for severe are less than 5
percent and SPC Day 2 is currently just for general
thunderstorms. Any shower/storm could contain small hail given
freezing levels are on average around 7-8 kft. The colder
thermal profiles aloft may coincide with enough CAPE and
marginal shear to support hail development. Cannot completely
rule out an isolated large hail occurrence as well. Gusty winds
are also possible in heavier downpours.
Scattered convection may continue into the early evening before
diminishing Friday night with loss of heating. The lingering
surface trough and energy aloft may support shower activity
into the first half of the night. Mostly cloudy conditions to
start Friday night will start to become partly cloudy to mostly
clear early Saturday morning as the shortwave and upper low
begin to slide to our east.
Hazy conditions are otherwise possible on Friday as there is
still enough concentration aloft per HRRR vertically integrated
smoke. Included patchy smoke across southeastern Long Island
based on the latest HRRR low level smoke fields which show
slightly higher values there.
Highs on Friday will be below average in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Lows Friday night range from the upper 40s and low 50s
inland to the middle and upper 50s close to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure to our east will continue to exit the region on
Saturday, losing its influence as surface high pressure builds
in briefly from the SE with a weak ridging aloft. This will lead
to less cloud cover through the weekend, allowing highs back
into seasonal to slightly above seasonal values, particularly on
Sunday. NBM was mostly used for temperatures. However, I did
blend in some MOS consensus for nights I expected to have less
cloud cover, particularly Saturday night, to account for any
radiational cooling which MOS seems to handle better than NBM in
some spots. Rain chances appear to be trending on the low side
of things for Saturday, before high pressure completely
completely takes over. I kept slight chances mainly just for
interior areas. Winds will return from a southerly direction on
Monday which should provide relief for any areas still being
impacted by reduced air quality at that time.
Next week a deepening low will build over the Great Lakes
before tracking east just to our north on Tuesday, bringing with
it an associated warm and cold front, then track to our
northeast by Wednesday. Plenty of PVA with this system and
dewpoints increasing with a southerly flow. Monday, in
particular, looks like a decent chance for widespread precip.
PWATs from the 12Z GFS are bringing in around 1.6-1.85" which
approaches the max moving average for June 13th from SPC`s
Sounding Climatology page of 1.89". The rain will likely build
Monday and clear Tuesday morning with a cold front, before more
rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. As far as thunderstorm
chances go, it looks like marginal instability will be present
next week, so kept some slight chances for thunderstorms in the
forecast for most afternoons next week. Temperatures look close
to seasonal averages next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Smoke and haze conditions have improved with most restrictions
no longer being reported. Conditions are expected to improve
farther overnight and into Friday.
There is a chance of showers inland Friday morning into the
afternoon. During the afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
become likely inland, with a chance along the coast. With higher
confidence and higher probabilities inland used TEMPO and
continued with the PROB30 along the coast with lower
probabilities. Conditions improve during the early evening with
showers and thunderstorms ending west to east.
Winds have become light to light and variable, with a light NNW
flow at KJFK and a NE flow at KLGA. A light flow is likely
Friday with W to NW winds, and sea breezes developing along the
Connecticut coast, and at KJFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Smoke and haze conditions have improved and further improvement
is likely overnight, however, timing is uncertain.
Amendments are possible during Friday for timing and flight
categories with showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
There is a chance of small hail with a few of the storms,
however, with the uncertainty not included in the TAFs.
A sea breeze is likely at KJFK around midday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon
and evening with showers. SE gusts 20-25 kt.
Tuesday: MVFR with SHRA mainly in the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
Some smoke may linger over the waters, specifically the ocean,
through Friday morning. Visibilities should remain above 2-3 nm
during this time period. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels into Monday. An increasing southerly flow ahead
of a frontal system could bring a period of SCA winds on the
ocean waters Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with
astronomical tides. A few spots may still touch minor
benchmarks across the south shore bays of southern Queens and
southern Nassau with tonight`s high tide. A coastal flood
statement remains from 10pm to 2am. Water levels look to remain
below minor benchmarks on Friday has astronomical tides continue
to fall.
On Friday due to a diminishing swell and weak winds, all ocean
beaches will have a low risk of rip currents.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1106 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
At least some hazy skies and perhaps some smoke will linger into
the weekend as an area of low pressure will continue to drift
around New England. A couple of troughs rotating around that low
will result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms
on Friday. High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather for
the weekend, followed by low pressure approaching from the west
later Monday or Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The closed upper low continues to meander around the New England
region this evening. Thunderstorms from this afternoon have
pushed offshore with only scattered showers remaining on radar,
mainly across the north and west. These showers will continue
to wane late this evening and give way to dry conditions
overnight save for a rogue lingering shower. Mid- level cloud
cover will prevail overnight associated with the upper low,
primarily across the northern half of our area. Lows will dip
into the low 50s.
The upper low will slowly continue to retrograde west through the
day on Friday. More lobes of vorticity will continue to pinwheel
around the low. As a result of the core of the low sliding closer,
colder air aloft will remain overhead and a thermal trough will
slide through in the afternoon. Similar to Thursday, the colder mid-
level air will result in steep mid-level lapse rates, akin to those
that produced some just sub-severe (including a report of 1") hail.
As the low retrogrades, flow aloft will take a slight westerly turn
and we should get some modest moisture advection into the region.
The surface low will again maintain backside troughiness across the
area, and expect a sea breeze to develop in the afternoon.
With mid and upper level flow taking on a slightly more westerly
component on Friday, we may begin to see a slight improvement in the
thickness of the smoke across the area. Still do expect the skies to
be quite hazy, and significant improvement likely won`t come until
Saturday into Sunday as winds do finally shift out of the west. Will
wait for later runs of the RAP/HRRR smoke products to get a better
idea of how smoke density will play out through the day on Friday,
but overall expect a similar day to Thursday with improved
visibility at least.
Precipitation-wise, thinking we`ll see a similar day to Thursday
with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Diurnal heating will
result in MUCAPE values of 500-800 J/kg, but generally weak boundary
layer flow will only result in deep shear values around 20 knots,
and the mean wind in the cloud bearing layer will also be similar to
today in the 20-25 mph resulting in slower moving showers and
thunderstorms. Noting though how a similar environment, and rather
paltry looking storms produced hail on Thursday, thinking some of
the stronger updrafts may also be capable of producing small hail
again on Friday, especially with the wet-bulb zero levels again
around 7-8kft and relatively dry near-surface air. Expect some
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop (30-50% chance) in
the afternoon when diurnal heating is maximized coupled with forcing
from rounds of shortwaves, surface troughs, and afternoon sea
breeze. Did cut back a bit on NBM PoPs again though as its recent
wet bias seemed to be prevalent again tomorrow.
As for temperatures, maintained the theme of slightly below guidance
as again on Thursday the haze and smoke held MaxTs slightly cooler
than forecast. Looking at highs reaching into the low to mid
70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level low pressure along with a weak surface low still
hanging across New England heading into Friday night will
finally start to make its way eastward and away from our region
heading into the weekend. One last shortwave trough rotating
around that low may help keep some isolated showers or even a
stray thunderstorm around portions of the area on Friday
evening, mainly toward northern New Jersey and the Poconos.
Otherwise expect any shower activity to quickly diminish through
Friday night and into early Saturday. We did opt to leave some
slight chance POPs in for the same aforementioned northern
portions of our region Saturday afternoon as there may be enough
lingering moisture and instability for spotty showers there as
some vorticity streams through in northwest flow. For the vast
majority of our region though, expect a dry weekend. Smoke and
haze may continue to be an issue, though the RAP and HRRR smoke
modeling along with the forecast low and mid-level steering flow
shifting to more of a west and southwest direction suggest that
we will continue to see some gradual improvement in air quality.
Additionally, temperatures will warm up through the weekend,
with upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday followed by mid to upper
80s for Sunday. Humidity will start to gradually creep up a
little, but does not look oppressive, with dewpoints reaching
perhaps into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Computer model guidance continues to be in fairly good,
consistent agreement that we will see a widespread rainfall
across the mid-Atlantic later on Monday or Monday night. Upper-
level low pressure closing off across the Great Lakes along with
an intensifying surface low will bring a cold front toward our
region, with perhaps another wave of low pressure developing as
the front moves through. Stuck close to NBM guidance for the
rest of the week, though that included some low chance POPs into
Tuesday and Wednesday. While most deterministic models have a
period of drier weather following the front, there is a
possibility for some showers depending on the timing of the
passage of the aforementioned upper-low. Depending how slowly
that upper-low passes by, the mid to late week period may see
temperatures staying closer to normal readings for mid-June, in
the low to mid-80s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...MVFR visibilities will smoke and haze. Some brief period of
IFR visibilities have persisted, so can`t entirely rule out a quick
dip to vis below 3 SM, but primarily expect 3-5 SM to prevail.
RDG/ABE currently have the best chance to remain at VFR, but a
few moments of MVFR cannot be ruled out there. Expect a mid-
level cloud deck around 8-10 kft overnight. Wind will turn less
than 5 knots overnight, but likely hold out of the north-
northwest with the pressure gradient in place. Moderate
confidence.
Friday...Expect to see some slight improvement in regard to smoke
and haze, though MVFR visibility restrictions remain possible as
smoke and haze still lingers. Mid level clouds around 5-8 kft will
develop late morning and a sea breeze will develop and move inland
in the afternoon shifting winds to south-southeast at KMIV/KACY.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (30-50% chance).
Latest high resolution models suggest decent coverage across the
terminals, so have added a VCTS to the TAFs. Northwesterly wind
5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 kts, with gusts up to
20 kts. Winds decrease to around 5 knots at night. Moderate
confidence.
Sunday...VFR. Winds gradually become more southerly through the day
around 10 kts. Moderate confidence.
Monday...VFR possibly lowering to MVFR late in the day in the
form of reduced ceilings in rainfall. Southerly winds 10 to 15
kt with gusts over 20 kt possible. Low confidence.
Tuesday...MVFR to VFR conditions with a low chance for lingering
showers. West-southwest winds 10-15 kt. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through Friday. Southerly wind tonight
around 5 knots becoming northwesterly Friday morning 5-10 knots. A
sea breeze should develop in the afternoon and shift winds south-
southeasterly. A chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms,
primarily in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet.
Outlook...
Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally south-
southwest 5-10 kt. Seas of 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday and Monday...SCA conditions possible. Winds SSE 10-20 kt,
possibly gusting to 25 kt by Monday. Seas building to 3-5 ft.
Tuesday...Advisory-level seas around 5 ft may linger, otherwise
winds will veer to the SW near 10-15 kt.
Rip Currents...
Friday...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. Variable
winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn S around midday due
to afternoon sea breezes. Breaking waves 2 to 4 ft with a 5 to 7
second southeasterly swell.
Saturday...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. WNW winds
5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn SSW with the development of
an afternoon sea breeze. Breaking waves 3 to 4 ft with a 5 to 7
second southeasterly swell.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Brudy/Johnson/MJL
SHORT TERM...Dodd/Deal
LONG TERM...Dodd/Deal
AVIATION...Brudy/Dodd/MJL
MARINE...Brudy/Dodd