Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/09/23


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1045 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Key Messages: - Dry with low humidities this afternoon and Friday in the upper teens and low 20s east of the Mississippi River. - Chance (40-60%) for scattered showers and storms across the region late Saturday with generally lighter amounts (30-40% chance of greater than 0.25") - Cooler temperatures early week with a slight chance (20-30%) for precip on Monday in central Wisconsin. This afternoon through tomorrow: The dry pattern continues today with this prevailing dry air mass which will keep relative humidities low today in the upper teens and low 20 percent range resulting in an elevated fire risk. RAP Vertically-Integrated smoke fields tend to keep upper level smoke in our area throughout the day with gradual dispersing going into the overnight. This will keep our skies hazy most of the day today and maybe slightly reduce our temperatures due to the inhibition of incoming solar radiation. Overnight lows are expected to be slightly below average due to radiative cooling and continued dry conditions. Generally most locations should drop into the low 50s along and west of the Mississippi River with lows widespread in the middle and upper 40s east of the Mississippi River with our typically cold areas as low as the middle 30s. Some isolated frost may be possible in the cranberry bog areas where near-saturation can be reached. Tomorrow should see fairly similar conditions during the daytime hours with RHs in the 20s east of the Mississippi River. Weekend Precipitation Chances: A shortwave trough is still expected to work its way through the weekend as guidance has been projecting over the past few days. Generally speaking guidance shows a reasonable chance (40-60%) for scattered shower and storm activity however there is more uncertainty for precipitation amounts. 850mb moisture transport in both the 08.12 NAM and GFS is very limited and warm cloud depths are low (<3km). Additionally, NAM guidance suggests minimal CAPE (100- 200 J/kg) in forecast soundings for this time period indicating weaker updrafts and no severe threat when also considering minimal shear. As a result, EC ensembles tend to show widespread one to two tenth amounts for our region with occasional ensembles showing amounts as high as half to three-quarters of an inch, reflecting the general convective and scattered nature of the precipitation. EC ensembles are reasonably confident with medium probabilities (60-70%) for amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch but have much lower confidence (10-20%) for amounts higher. The 12z GFS Ensembles tend to favor a wetter solution with higher probabilities for both amounts exceeding a tenth of an inch (80-90%) and half an inch (30- 40%). Guidance has also tended to want to move PoPs later in the day on Saturday as compared with guidance yesterday. While initial guidance kept most PoPs later Friday and into Saturday afternoon, the trend has continued to be later into the day on Saturday with current guidance reflecting peak chances for precipitation being into the late afternoon Saturday through the overnight. Start of Next Week: As the trough progresses through our region over the weekend, a closed upper-level low will break off from the wave somewhere over the Great Lakes region. Current model trends have been leaning more towards developing the low further to the west with EC guidance wanting to have the low form over central Wisconsin. As a result, PoPs have been increased in many of our Wisconsin locations for late Monday to reflect this trend. Forecast QPF tends to remain on the lighter side and precipitation amounts still remain uncertain at this time. Temperatures at the start of next week should trend cooler after the combination of the passage of the boundary this weekend and increased cloud cover over our region. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday could be in the upper 60s and low 70s as a result. However, there is some difficulty determining how cool it will be on Sunday and Monday due to its dependence on the position of the upper- level low. A general warming trend as the week progresses with a ridge once again slowly building in, bringing back in this dry pattern for the remainder of next week providing little relief for the increasing drought conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Very quiet weather pattern with a large area of surface high pressure over the region that will sink south toward the Ohio River Valley through Friday. Very little in the way of cloud cover expected with light winds gradually coming around to the south/southwest as the high dips to the south but with speeds well under 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 The latest US Drought Monitor has increased drought conditions for many portions of our region into both D1: Moderate Drought and D2: Severe Drought. More information can be found on our latest drought statement: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=DGT&issuedby=ARX && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Naylor AVIATION...04 CLIMATE...Naylor
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 While scattered to numerous showers and storms persist across much of the area, the intensity continues to trend down. The main concerns right now may be transitioning to hydro in two areas. One area is west southwest of Watford City along the Montana border where a cluster of storms continues to remain almost stationary. The other looks to be around Foster county where there is a bit of a training component to the storms moving through. We will have to watch these areas closely for flooding issues over the next couple hours. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and storms will persist through the night. While a strong storm or two will remain possible with small hail, the severe threat should be fairly low now. For this update, we updated the precipitation and sky cover forecast through the night and blended in the latest observations of the sensible weather fields. UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue across much of western and central North Dakota. The environment today has been very similar to previous days, but there has been a touch more available instability and shear. Storm coverage has also been greater. As storms continue to slowly move to the east, they should move into a slightly better shear environment, with effective layer values in the 25 to 30 knot range over the Turtle Mountains and down into the James River Valley per SPC mesoanalysis. However, as we continue to approach sunset, we will start to lose diurnal heating which will eventually limit the intensity of these storms. Until then, a few strong to marginally severe storms will continue to pulse up and down here and there. Hail to the size of half dollars and winds to 60 mph will be the main threats under the strongest storms. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms highlight the short term forecast. A strong omega block continues to characterize the synoptic pattern, although the upper ridge portion has been stretched northwest as the western trough tries to break down the ridge. At the surface, a low pressure was centered over southwest into south central North Dakota under the upper high. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing much of the day across northern North Dakota, with daytime heating aiding in further development across southwest North Dakota early this afternoon. The expectation is for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and evening, with steep low- level lapse rates and high instability due to dew points in the lower 60s. The limiting factor for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms is once again the wind shear, although it is stronger than yesterday. RAP-based mesoanalysis shows 25 knots of effective bulk shear across the north central and into eastern North Dakota, while slightly stronger shear around 30 knots is analyzed across eastern Montana, while across southwest North Dakota shear is only in the 10 to 15 knot range. There could be a few storms, especially north central and east, that mature enough to become a short- lived marginally severe thunderstorm, with the main hazards as quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. Slow storm motion and high PWATs will again lead to the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through much of the night, although decreasing instability will strongly limit the severe potential. We did add in the mention of patchy fog across the northwest late overnight into Friday morning, with forecast soundings show a shallow layer of saturation, with mist reducing visibilities the past few mornings. Overnight lows will be mild, in the lower 60s. As the surface low drifts south through the day Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue, although decreased instability and shear should limit the threat ceiling. A weakening thermal ridge and approaching cold front will start the cooling trend for the weekend, with highs generally in the lower 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Seasonable temperatures and drier conditions are expected through the weekend, with a slight warming trend through most of next work week. Ensemble guidance members favor the upper ridge portion of this week`s omega block to get constricted over the Canadian Prairies, with closed lows off the California coast and over the far northeast CONUS. At the surface, an extensive high pressure is progged to sink south behind a cold front and settle over the Northern Plains, bringing drier and cooler air for the weekend. Blended guidance still produces some slight chance PoPs across southwest North Dakota to start Saturday, but these should taper off through the day as the surface high continues expanding. There is high confidence in forecast highs in the 70s for both Saturday and Sunday, although Saturday could be a bit breezy as the surface pressure gradient increases some as the high moves in. With the cold front, the latest HRRR and RAP smoke forecast models are both showing a slight increase in both upper and near-surface smoke, which does make sense given where the cooler air is coming from. At this point it doesn`t look like anything impactful, but a white tinge to the sky could be noticeable. A warming trend is expected through most of next work week, with the upper air pattern primarily characterized by two weak / somewhat cutoff lows over the western and eastern CONUS, and broad ridging across the northwest and north central. Cluster analysis shows general agreement among ensemble members, although there are hints that upper flow across the central CONUS could end up very weak. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across much of western and central North Dakota. Most sites will at least see some risk of thunderstorms in the vicinity this evening. The two sites most likely to see some potential impacts will be KMOT and KJMS as storms continue to approach. Over the next couple of hours, at least some severe thunderstorm potential will exist north and east with hail up to the size of half dollars and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are also possible under any heavier cores that move overhead. Storms will eventually diminish around and after sunset, leading to VFR conditions at all sites. Guidance suggests that stratus may move into portions of the area Friday morning and into the early afternoon hours, but for now will keep ceilings above MVFR categories. Winds may become gusty and erratic around any showers or storms in the vicinity. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...Jones LONG TERM...Jones AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
948 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Showery and cool conditions will continue through the end of the week as our region remains under the influence of a large upper level low. The pattern will briefly change over the weekend as an upper level ridge will bring drier weather with more seasonable temperatures for Sunday and Monday, but unsettled conditions look to return thereafter. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 943 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes were needed with this update. Showers have waned in both coverage and intensity as expected, and this trend will continue overnight. Cloud cover still remains fairly widespread at this point, but there are some breaks, especially over eastern VT. Some fog has already been noted in locations that have had briefly clear skies, but current thinking is that clouds will remain extensive enough to keep fog fairly localized. Have therefore kept the mention of fog out of the forecast. Temperatures are on track to bottom out in the 40s to around 50 by daybreak. Overall the forecast has this all covered, so only changes were minor tweaks to cloud cover to match the latest satellite trends. Previous discussion...The sprawling upper-level low over New England continues to bring rather dreary weather to the region. Showers will gradually diminish through the overnight hours, however some continued activity cannot be ruled out. There is also the possibility of some localized fog overnight tonight if enough clearing occurs given the abundance of low-level moisture and calm winds, however there is low confidence. Temperatures tonight will continue to be seasonably cool, with lows mainly in the 40s. Friday will be almost identical to today, with the showers blossoming again in the afternoon, however the showers will be more terrain focused. Forecast soundings show some greater instability tomorrow afternoon compared to previous days, which will allow for some possible thunder. The lack of shear and low CAPE values will keep any thunderstorms that do develop below severe criteria, however some small hail or graupel is possible with the cold pool aloft. Similar to tonight, shower activity will lessen with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than the last few days, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will continue to be on the cold side, with temperatures in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...Yet another round of showers and even a slight chance for a few thunderstorms will exist on Saturday another weak disturbance rotates around the upper level low that is slowly exiting to the east. Given temperature warming near or above 70, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE develop during the afternoon hours across portions of the North Country which may help a few rumbles of thunders to be embedded with increased shower activity. No organized convection is expected but these storms could produce locally higher precipitation totals. In terms of smoke, all HRRR and RAP extended runs show elevated smoke overhead during the morning hours but little to no at the surface. Given the wind vectors, it seems Saturday should generally be fine from an air quality perspective. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...Drier weather associated with shortwave ridging should bring about a period of drier weather on Sunday. However, it`s looking like our winds will be out of the north/northwest which could bring smoke from the wildfires to our northwest back towards the region. The amount of smoke will be highly dependent on the fire activity. Cooler and wetter temperatures have limited additional smoke output but that could change by late weekend as we warm up and begin to dry out. Rain chances will increase as we head into Monday night as a maturing surface low over the Great Lakes pushes a strong warm front through the region during the overnight and early morning hours. A cold front will be on the heels of the warm front with a cold frontal passage expected overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Longwave troughing is expected to remain in place much of the week which will likely keep at least a slight chance of showers in the forecast but won`t be anything like what we are currently seeing with the strong closed low overhead. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...A challenging TAF period in terms of the forecast with scattered showers continuing to lower visibilities across the North Country this evening and light northwesterly or variable winds under low pressure. Main idea is that MVFR cigs and vis are anticipated for many of the next 24 hours at all sites, with most sites prevailing or tempo of IFR for a few hours. Overall cigs will lower throughout the next few hours and be lowest tonight, either restricting visibility as low stratus clouds or breaking enough to trigger fog development in the valleys, which would also restrict visibility. Best chances for IFR conditions 06Z-12Z Friday, with cigs lifting and vis increasing gradually after that period. Many sites have the potential to return to VFR cigs tomorrow afternoon, but showers will resurge later tomorrow around 16Z-20Z Friday (similar to today) and could again cause fluctuations in cig and vis. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Storm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
734 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Dry air associated with approaching high pressure will be in control of our weather through Saturday, with seasonable temperatures expected. Moisture will return Sunday into early next week as a low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Diurnally driven thunderstorms are possible through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Isolated convection confined to a surface trough well south of the forecast area (FA), save an isolated light shower across the NE FA. Fair weather expected overnight with skies becoming clear to mostly clear as high pressure continues to move southward. Temperatures will likely fall quickly tonight with forecast lows in the mid to upper 50s north and lower 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday and Friday night...Closed upper low over New England will finally begin to move slowly to the northeast. Dry northwest flow aloft through the day. Downslope flow appears weak but strong subsidence expected after short wave trough moves through early in the afternoon. Cooler than normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s. Expect mostly clear sky behind the short wave trough in the afternoon. The low dew points and clear sky should set up favorable radiational cooling conditions. The local radiation scheme suggest many areas will see temps fall into mid to upper 50s Friday night. Saturday and Saturday night...Zonal flow aloft. The dry air mass will remain relatively dry through the day with continued subsidence. With warm advection in the afternoon as low level flow becomes southwest, temperatures closer to normal mid to upper 80s, perhaps 90 degrees. But moisture will return Saturday night as ridge moves off the coast. Precipitable water increase to around 1.6 inches in the CSRA toward daybreak Sunday. With increasing low level moisture, the overnight lows will be 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The pattern changes quickly Sunday and more active weather expected early in the period. Another closed low will be setting up over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region with the trough axis south through the lower Mississippi Valley. Developing surface low over the mid Mississippi Valley moving northeast with trailing cold front to the south. The models continue to suggest a somewhat robust short wave trough will approach the area late Sunday with height falls with resulting steep low to mid level lapse rates. Precipitable water increase to 1.75 inches or higher. With moderate instability, and some increase in mid level winds, a severe threat appears possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again on Monday ahead of cold front in the Tennessee Valley moving slowly toward the region. Shear not too strong but likely sufficient for some organized strong convection. Beyond Monday, a more zonal flow pattern is broadly expected to develop, with a series of weak shortwaves cutting through. So a somewhat active summer pattern from a diurnal precip perspective is expected with near average temps; NAEFS summarizes this well with above average moisture and near average temps and heights through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR Conditions expected the next 24 hours. Satellite images and loops showing scattered to broken mid-level cloudiness across portions of the Upstate of SC, with additional scattered mid-level clouds across the southern CSRA. Clouds remaining vfr overnight and through Friday, with some periods of broken mid-level strato-cu possible overnight. As for visibilities, some smoke from Canadian wildfires does appear as a slight haze on the satellite across the forecast area, but impacts are currently minimal with surface obs all showing visibilities over p6sm. More significant visibility restrictions remain well outside of the cwa, further north across NC and VA. Majority of the near term guidance keeps visibilities vfr through the night, and have elected to keep with that trend for now. However, with enough smoke particles in the air, can not rule out a period of reduced visibilities late tonight. The hrrr indicates that likelihood across portions of the coastal plain late tonight, but does keep it all east of ogb/ags/dnl. Will monitor trends through the night though. Winds light to calm overnight, then winds eventually begin to increase and turn from northeasterly to northwesterly from late morning into the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are currently anticipated through at least Saturday night. Another approaching storm system may produce restrictions on Sunday with unsettled weather continuing into Monday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
733 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure centered over the New England states will move offshore by Saturday allowing high pressure to slide from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. Low pressure will develop over the Midwest Sunday and slowly move through the region Monday into Tuesday, while also pulling a cold front through the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Smoke and haze continue to be the biggest story to close out the work week as dozens of fires continue to burn in eastern Canada, and a prevailing northerly flow of cool, dry, Canadian air drives these plumes through the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic states. The culprit for this persistent flow pattern is a huge mid/upper closed low centered over New England embedded within a deep longwave trough over the eastern CONUS. This combined with broad surface high pressure over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes is keeping northerly flow across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Mid- level clouds will continue to rotate southward across north central and NE Ohio and NW PA through at least the first half of tonight before the aforementioned surface high begins to nudge farther east helping the clouds to slowly dissipate from west to east. Smoke plume forecasts from the latest HRRR runs continue to bring another wave of denser smoke southward through the region this evening into Friday morning, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA. However, confidence on the timing and thickness of this is low since the cloud cover is blocking our view of the current location and extent of the smoke, so we can only go off of a model. The HRRR has also slowed down the onset of the smoke and decreased the amount of near surface smoke. Best estimates are for this to move into NW PA after 22Z then gradually sink south and southwest into NE Ohio after 00Z, with off and on smoke then continuing through Friday morning. Most visibilities should stay above 5 miles since trends in the model have been for most of the smoke to stay elevated, but periods of 3 to 5 mile visibilities are possible in far NE Ohio and NW PA. Kept areawide haze in the forecast through Friday afternoon, along with pockets of smoke, but this will be most concentrated in the aforementioned NE areas. Otherwise, isolated showers could rotate into far NE Ohio and NW PA at times tonight and Friday as some mid- level moisture drops through, but given the dry low-level airmass, most areas will stay dry with any rain likely a couple hundredths of an inch or less. Lows tonight will be unseasonably cold again in the upper 40s/low 50s with highs Friday limited to the mid/upper 60s in NE Ohio and NW PA, low 70s in north central Ohio, and low/mid 70s in NW Ohio. By Friday night, the old mid/upper low will finally eject out of New England allowing heights to start rising across the region. This will allow the surface high to slide through the Ohio Valley and finally start changing the flow. This should start taking the smoke/haze away from the region, and skies are expected to be mostly clear Friday night with lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... We start the short term period on Saturday with an upper-level ridge overhead and surface high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians. Warm air advection on the backside of this high will bring temperatures back up to near normal and even slightly above normal for Saturday through Sunday. These features depart to east as an upper-level low moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, with its trough extending southward into the Mississippi Valley. Low pressure is expected to develop in advance of this upper-level trough, lifting from the mid-Mississippi Valley Sunday morning to the southern Great Lakes and/or northern Ohio Valley by Sunday night. Modest moisture content will accompany this low pressure system but forcing from the right-entrance region of an 80-90 knot upper-level jet and the approaching upper-level low should take advantage of all available moisture with this system. Compared to the previous forecast, the upper-level low appears to be stronger, with a more favorable low pressure track across our forecast area, so have increased PoPs to include a period of 80% Sunday night. At this point, this initial round of precipitation may produce up to a half inch, though there are some ensemble members that have an isolated inch. This rain will be beneficial but not sure it will be enough to improve our ongoing moderate drought. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... On Monday, this upper-level low slowly moves east across the Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. The associated surface low lifts north to Ontario on Monday before retrograding back east to central/southern Michigan Monday night, lingering there through Tuesday. Precipitation from Sunday night is likely to linger into early Monday especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Thunderstorms my occur across the eastern part of the area if this precipitation lingers into the afternoon. As this low retrogrades, there will probably be a break in precipitation Monday evening through Tuesday morning, with increasing precipitation chances once again Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as that low moves back east. There is a decent chance of more appreciable rain with this, with ensemble average around 0.1-0.25" Tuesday and Tuesday night. Uncertainty exists with the Wednesday through Thursday forecast but generally expected very weak ridging in between low pressure systems. Temperatures generally expected to be below normal through the long term period, with highs only forecast to be in the low 70s on Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday especially has the chance to get lower as that upper-level low moves overhead. Wednesday and Thursday we should see a gradual climb back to near normal. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR remains at all TAF sites this evening. Guidance is still hinting at another round of smoke to move south across the forecast area tonight. Opted to keep most reductions to visibility minimal across TAF sites overnight tonight with 6SM in HZ at all sites except KERI which has a TEMPO group of 3SM overnight tonight. Both RAP and HRRR near-surface and vertically integrated smoke have shown the best potential for smoke to mainly impact KERI, but can`t rule out patchy smoke at KCAK/KYNG. Outside of any smoke, isolated showers are possible mainly at KERI/KYNG tonight and tomorrow but kept any VCSH or -SHRA mentions out of the TAFs. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in haze through Saturday. Non-VFR possible with showers and storms on Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Generally quiet weather, though weak onshore flow may result in slightly choppy conditions in the nearshore through Friday morning. Southwest flow of around 10 knots develops Friday night as weak high pressure passes to the south, with southwest flow continuing through Saturday. Easterly flow of around 15 knots develops on Sunday and Sunday night in advanced of an approaching low pressure system. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...Saunders
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1124 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Air quality will slowly improve through Friday, but will still be in the unhealthy category through Friday evening. Scattered to numerous rain showers will impact mainly the northern half of central PA this evening. Temperatures will be modestly cooler through Friday with an uptick in shower activity again expected Friday afternoon and evening. A warmup over the weekend will likely precede much needed rainfall early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Isolated showers still traversing portions of central, northern and eastern PA late this evening, and continue to slowly decrease in intensity and coverage.bShower activity should wane by late tonight with another relatively cool overnight period and below climo minimum temps in the 40-55F range respectively from North to South. The DEP has extended the Code ORANGE Air Quality Alert through midnight Friday night for smoke particulate concentrations. Air quality has improved over yesterday, but is/will remain in the unhealthy categpru across PA on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Similar day to Thursday expected to end the week, as main shortwave trough axis rotates through CPA on Friday. The best combination of moisture/lift/instability will lead to expanded coverage of diurnal convection late Friday morning and Friday afternoon, which is reflected in the NBM PPI. RAP smoke model indicates the highest concentrations of near- sfc smoke will be south of the area on Friday and this should lead to improving air quality/visibility (not as hazy). Max temps will warm by a few to several deg F over the Central and North, but will be similar or a few deg F cooler in the south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Although a few isolated showers or a t-storm can`t be ruled out over the northeast quad of CWA Saturday afternoon, rising heights and warming aloft point toward a mainly dry and warmer start to the second weekend of June. Max temps trend +10F day over day with highs back to seasonal levels in the 70-80F range. The trend toward milder temps continues through Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The various ensemble prediction systems remain consistent in their depiction of the large-scale pattern heading into the weekend and early next week. The pattern will consist of a low amplitude upper trough axis across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS, with an upper ridge axis holding firm over the middle of the CONUS and central Canada. Resultant NW flow aloft will keep any sustained heat well west of the Commonwealth, with a progressive surface cold front likely to cross the region Monday. The timing on this frontal passage has been inconsistent between model runs, but the most recent guidance suggests Monday afternoon. However, transition from current blocking pattern is still not fully certain, and so what we can say for sure is that Sunday into Monday may present the best CHANCE of rain we`ll see for the next week, but it`s far from certain at this early time. As for the daily sensible weather, temperatures next week should remain seasonal for the end of spring and the beginning of summer. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon in association with diurnal heating and a weak upper level shortwave, but dry conditions are expected to be prevailing through most of next week. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few isolated -SHRA continue to move from northwest to southeast through central PA. A quick - SHRA is possible at KIPT as these diminish. Smoke from the Canadian wildfires will continue to affect the airspace through Friday. Widespread MVFR conds (either with smoke (mainly across the Lower Susq) and or strato cu clouds/HZ over the central and northern parts of the state. Outlook... Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...Slight chance of PM SHRA and TSRA. Mon...Higher likelihood of SHRA and TSRA, especially PM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...DeVoir/Travis/Bowen AVIATION...Tyburski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Key Messages: - Locally heavy rainfall which could produce flooding in some areas is possible late Friday afternoon through Saturday night. - The rain forecast Saturday is uncertain. There is a chance the best rainfall will occur south and west of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 A stationary front draped across ncntl Nebraska will be the focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight. Most of this activity will remain across ncntl Nebraska. There`s a chance isolated storms will develop across wrn Nebraska where cumulus congestus is underway. The front will begin sagging south and west through nrn Nebraska Friday afternoon and Friday night. The short term model blend and the RAP model were the basis for POPs. The RAP model appears to have a good handle on the southward motion of the front and it is in this area the highest POPs are listed. An upper level trof of cold air will be dropping south through the nrn Plains for additional support. Although the moisture transport in the RAP model appears relatively modest relative to the events of this past May, the 850-300mb RH will increase to around 80 percent, with PWAT north of 1.25 inches. Lapse rates are less than 7 C/KM and this should support some level of warm air PCPN processes. Thus, there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the north Friday night and perhaps across the south Saturday night. SPC suggested a marginal severe weather risk for severe wind/hail across ncntl Nebraska late Friday and this is based on the 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE in the RAP model plus the 20 to 30 kts of shear. It is worth noting this shear and instability axis extends far to the west to near the Black Hills and areas along and north of highway 20 across wrn Nebraska. So, if the model is correct, there is the potential for at least strong thunderstorms across all of nrn Nebraska late Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 The forecast Saturday night is uncertain with regard to whether or not the front will activate across swrn Nebraska as shown by the NAM or will the front, moisture and forcing go sailing south into KS leaving this area mostly dry as shown by the ECM. The blended forecast allows for activation and later forecasts can refine this feature. There is little change in the forecast Sunday. Dry and cool air will move in behind the cold front and rain chances vanish. An upper level low across the Great Basin will move slowly east and present a rain chance to wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday night and Tuesday. There is a chance the bulk of the UA support and rainfall will pass south through KS. The GFS and ECM seem to be hinting at this. POPs have backed down the "high" chance for this forecast. The rest of the extended forecast features isolated to low end chance POPs for what appears to be weakly forced, mostly diurnally driven convection. The risk of severe weather Sunday through Thursday appears low. The ECM and GFS show a belt of strong subtropical westerlies across the srn Plains-from KS south into Texas. It is in this area that storm development would be most active. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect northern and central Neb terminals this evening, generally KVTN to KBBW and east. Activity will primarily wane after dark, then redevelop tomorrow afternoon. Coverage is deemed to isolated in the southwest (KLBF) to warrant a VC or tempo mention. Light winds will become south/southeast after daybreak. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CDC SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
931 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will be stalled offshore through Friday. High pressure will then build into the area over the weekend. A cold front will impact the area Monday, potentially lingering nearby through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 930 PM Thursday... Have some ongoing isolated shower activity still around Downeast Carteret and across portions of the southern Outer Banks but this activity should move offshore and out of the area within the next hour or so. Skies have slowly begun to clear outside of some pesky mid level clouds that are also moving E with the shower activity. This activity should continue out of the FA within the next few hours allowing for clear skies across much if not all of the CWA tonight. Winds across our inland areas have become light and variable as well. With good radiational cooling still forecast across the area ended up lowering near term temps given current obs and lowered lows a degree or so inland and several degrees across the northern OBX. Otherwise, mainly clear skies will prevail overnight with light winds and could see patchy shallow fog develop late but dry air just above the surface should keep the fog shallow and will burn off quickly after sunrise. Good radiational cooling allow for lows in the low to mid 50s across most places with a few low 60s along the OBX. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 430 PM Thursday...A final shortwave trough pivots through the cyclonic flow aloft on Friday. Some guidance showing isolated showers or thunderstorms developing once again across the northern tier with steep low level lapse rates, however the airmass will be drier with PW values around 0.75" or less and dew points mainly in the 50s to around 60 allow for minimal instability so any storms that develop will be weak. HRRR smoke continues to show impacts from Canadian wildfires across NC and continue to keep haze in the forecast, although NC DENR is forecasting a code Yellow across ENC for Friday with the current AQA expiring at midnight tonight. Highs Friday expected in the lower 80s most inland areas and mid 70s across the OBX. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM Thu...Weak backdoor cold front will bring limited rain chances Friday afternoon, with dry weather expected over the weekend. A cold front will bring showers and storms to the area Monday and Monday night, with significant forecast uncertainty for the middle of next week as the front could stall nearby or lift back over the area. Thursday night through Sunday...A weak upper shortwave will cross the area later Friday, with a surface backdoor cold front working down the coast through the day. Though moisture will be limited, these two features could be enough to spawn some scattered showers across NE NC, including the Pamlico-Albemarle Peninsula. Otherwise, mild temps and dry conditions expected for the rest of the area. Subsidence aloft and surface high pressure building in from the south and east bring dry weather over the weekend. Temps trending from several degrees below normal Friday to near normal Saturday and above normal Sunday as high pressure moves off the coast and WAA develops. Monday through Thursday...Stacked low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes early next week, with the associated cold front bringing widespread showers and storms to ENC later Monday into Monday night. There are several variables that remain uncertain with this system, but the severe potential will require monitoring in the coming days. The front could stall near, or maybe even over the area through the middle of next week, but limited low level moisture will keep limited rain chances in the forecast during this time. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 715 PM Thursday... VFR conditions continue across almost all of ENC this evening with the lone exception being directly behind some ongoing shower activity across Dare, Hyde, and Washington Counties where a brief period of MVFR ceilings is noted. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions to return to the entire CWA within the next hour or two. Mainly clear skies and light winds will bring good radiational cooling tonight which is supportive of fog development, but very dry air will reside just above the surface and widespread fog is not expected. Guidance continues to support this thought process as well keeping the fog threat limited at best. All that said, still think shallow ground fog will be possible with vsbys occasionally dropping to IFR/LIFR but impacts to operations will likely be minimal and this ground fog should burn off quickly after sunrise. Will continue to keep a period of MVFR vsbys in the TAF tonight. Pred VFR conditions expected Friday with only isolated showers or thunderstorms possible across northern rtes. Elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires expected to continue hazy conditions Friday with MVFR vsbys possible at times. LONG TERM /Fri night through Tue/... As of 345 Am Thu...VFR prevails late week through the weekend. An approaching cold front could bring lowering ceilings and the potential for flight restrictions Monday into Monday night, with widespread showers and some thunderstorms also expected. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 445 PM Thursday...Weak pressure gradients continue across the waters through the period with variable winds less than 15 kt and seas around 1 to 3 ft. LONG TERM /Thu through Mon/... As of 345 AM Thu...Weak backdoor cold front crossing the area Friday will bring a modest N to NE wind surge, but still only light to moderate winds expected Friday through Sunday with gusty conditions nearshore as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. The gradient could tighten enough to eventually necessitate SCAs ahead of the next front Monday, with moderate to breezy S to SW winds potentially persisting through the middle of next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/RCF SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...CB/RCF MARINE...SK/CB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1008 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 The forecast is on track with only minor updates made. The main trend is that dew points have increased quicker than expected, largely due to radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and calm winds. Conditions have been quite dry, but fog is at least possible in northeastern portions of the area where dew point depressions are already around 10 degrees or less. Haze was also left in the forecast as the HRRR smoke density product indicates at least some to be present with visibility reductions unlikely. Other elements were updated based on the latest high-res model guidance. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Key Messages: 1. Dry with below normal temperatures and comfortable dew points. Skies may continue to be somewhat hazy through tomorrow. Discussion: Scattered mid-level clouds this afternoon are expected to dissipate some as they transition to higher clouds tonight and tomorrow. Much drier air has been filtering in for much of the day with many dew point temperatures in the 40`s. Because of this, dense fog like this morning, will not be an issue. Skies may still remain hazy as the upper level flow pattern slowly changes by this weekend, shifting the plume of wildfire smoke aloft away from our area. Besides the atmospheric conditions that have made the area a code yellow the past couple of days according to the Air Quality Index, we will remain dry with very comfortable dew point temperatures and highs tomorrow trending a bit warmer, but still below normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Key Messages: 1. Dry Friday night into Saturday night. 2. Showers and storms expected Sunday into Monday. 3. Additional showers and storms possible during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame but details are still very uncertain. Discussion: The broad upper level trough over the Eastern US to start will continue to shift off to the east Friday night into Saturday, and short wave ridging will build over our area Saturday. We will see a dry start to the long term period with a cool night Friday night then temperatures near seasonal normals on Saturday. The HRRR smoke guidance goes through Friday night and suggests there could be at least some improvement, so for now will not extend the Haze through the night. However, the haze certainly may be needed to be added into at least Saturday as we get closer. Another upper trough dropping out of Canada will cut off over the Great Lakes Sunday night before gradually drifting east. At the surface, a cold front will move through our area sometime in the Sunday night/Monday time frame, and numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and near this front Sunday into Monday. Right now QPF values for this system are generally in the three quarters of an inch to near 2 inches range, but there still is quite a bit of uncertainty on the details that far out. For the Tuesday through Thursday time frame models continue to show poor consistency and agreement. There is some agreement that one or more short waves will move across with additional showers/storms possible during the period, but timing is very much in disagreement. The operational GFS continues to lead the wet camp but much of the data including the GEFS, suggests it may be drier more in line with the ECMWF. Will not argue much with the NBM, so will have slight chance to chance PoPs in all three days with the highest PoPs on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 VFR conditions will prevail with fairly light and variable winds. Any clouds will likely be above 5,000 feet with no ceilings expected. Fog is not anticipated but definitely at least a possibility near TRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 83 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 80 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 76 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS AVIATION...BW
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 Key Messages: - Showers and thunderstorms may spread south throughout the day Friday and some storms could be strong by afternoon. - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Saturday, when a strong cold front brings good chances for more widespread rainfall. - Drying out Sunday with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. A weak cold front extends north/south across central Nebraska where scattered showers and a few strong thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along a narrow corridor of higher CAPE values. Shear still remains limited and we expect any remaining activity to diminish as the sun goes down leaving much of our area quiet through the evening. On Friday, the latest CAM guidance continues to show a cluster of storms from previous evening convection over South Dakota turn into an MCV that holds together and moves southeast into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa throughout the morning and into afternoon hours. SWODY2 does put us in a Marginal Risk with potential for an isolated strong severe gust and large hail into the evening hours. The HRRR in particular continues to latch onto this. Saturday through Wednesday: Saturday brings the best chance for widespread rain as a cold front moves southeast through the region ahead of a potent mid-level vort lobe. This front will be moving into a very moist atmosphere where PWATs are around 150% of normal. Depending on antecedent conditions from Friday`s potential rainfall, additional heavy rainfall on Saturday could produce some localized flooding despite mostly dry conditions across the area, especially across southeast Nebraska. Showers and storms should move southeast out of the area by Sunday morning. A cool down is expected on Sunday and will linger into Monday as cooler high pressure moves in from the north. Drier weather and highs generally in the 70s will last through Monday. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for the remainder of the week with off and on shower and thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023 VFR conditions expected through the period. Potential for scattered TSRA will increase Friday afternoon. Possible that MVFR conditions may briefly exist with more intense storms as they pass through the TAF sites. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...DEE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1037 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will meander over New England through Friday night. The low pressure shifts away from the area on Saturday with high pressure building in through the weekend. The high pushes offshore late Sunday into Monday. A frontal system impacts the area from the beginning into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Temperatures and dew points have been running lower than forecast, especially across the outlying areas, as winds have become light to near calm. Adjusted temperatures and dew points through the overnight, and as a result also lowered overnight lows. Also increased cloud cover. The smoke and haze has improved, with most locations no longer reporting any restrictions. Haze remains in the forecast across the region as some smoke aloft is still possible. Air quality alerts remain in effect for Orange and Putnam counties until midnight and for the NYC metro, Long Island, Rockland, Westchester, NE NJ and S CT through midnight Friday night. Otherwise, closed upper low and associated surface low meanders over New England into tonight. There were still a few showers to the north of the region, and a light brief shower or sprinkle remains possible, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The upper low continues to meander over New England on Friday. The main difference between Thursday and Friday will be a much more defined shortwave that rotates around the upper low. This will help keep weak low pressure at the surface. Winds in the morning look to be light NE but will gradually see a surface trough set up aiding in convergence. There will be scattered to broken clouds through the day, but the upper low will aid in fairly steep lapse rates. There are differences among the modeling with amount of instability by afternoon with the several CAMs (NAM3-km, WRF-ARW, NSSL-WRF, and HRRR) showing an average of about 500 J/kg. The FV3-WRF and the GFS are indicating less CAPE. However, the cold pocket aloft from the upper low and decent forcing should be enough to initiate at least scattered convection in the afternoon and evening. CSU machine learning probabilities for severe are less than 5 percent and SPC Day 2 is currently just for general thunderstorms. Any shower/storm could contain small hail given freezing levels are on average around 7-8 kft. The colder thermal profiles aloft may coincide with enough CAPE and marginal shear to support hail development. Cannot completely rule out an isolated large hail occurrence as well. Gusty winds are also possible in heavier downpours. Scattered convection may continue into the early evening before diminishing Friday night with loss of heating. The lingering surface trough and energy aloft may support shower activity into the first half of the night. Mostly cloudy conditions to start Friday night will start to become partly cloudy to mostly clear early Saturday morning as the shortwave and upper low begin to slide to our east. Hazy conditions are otherwise possible on Friday as there is still enough concentration aloft per HRRR vertically integrated smoke. Included patchy smoke across southeastern Long Island based on the latest HRRR low level smoke fields which show slightly higher values there. Highs on Friday will be below average in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Friday night range from the upper 40s and low 50s inland to the middle and upper 50s close to the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure to our east will continue to exit the region on Saturday, losing its influence as surface high pressure builds in briefly from the SE with a weak ridging aloft. This will lead to less cloud cover through the weekend, allowing highs back into seasonal to slightly above seasonal values, particularly on Sunday. NBM was mostly used for temperatures. However, I did blend in some MOS consensus for nights I expected to have less cloud cover, particularly Saturday night, to account for any radiational cooling which MOS seems to handle better than NBM in some spots. Rain chances appear to be trending on the low side of things for Saturday, before high pressure completely completely takes over. I kept slight chances mainly just for interior areas. Winds will return from a southerly direction on Monday which should provide relief for any areas still being impacted by reduced air quality at that time. Next week a deepening low will build over the Great Lakes before tracking east just to our north on Tuesday, bringing with it an associated warm and cold front, then track to our northeast by Wednesday. Plenty of PVA with this system and dewpoints increasing with a southerly flow. Monday, in particular, looks like a decent chance for widespread precip. PWATs from the 12Z GFS are bringing in around 1.6-1.85" which approaches the max moving average for June 13th from SPC`s Sounding Climatology page of 1.89". The rain will likely build Monday and clear Tuesday morning with a cold front, before more rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. As far as thunderstorm chances go, it looks like marginal instability will be present next week, so kept some slight chances for thunderstorms in the forecast for most afternoons next week. Temperatures look close to seasonal averages next week. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Smoke and haze conditions have improved with most restrictions no longer being reported. Conditions are expected to improve farther overnight and into Friday. There is a chance of showers inland Friday morning into the afternoon. During the afternoon showers and thunderstorms will become likely inland, with a chance along the coast. With higher confidence and higher probabilities inland used TEMPO and continued with the PROB30 along the coast with lower probabilities. Conditions improve during the early evening with showers and thunderstorms ending west to east. Winds have become light to light and variable, with a light NNW flow at KJFK and a NE flow at KLGA. A light flow is likely Friday with W to NW winds, and sea breezes developing along the Connecticut coast, and at KJFK. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Smoke and haze conditions have improved and further improvement is likely overnight, however, timing is uncertain. Amendments are possible during Friday for timing and flight categories with showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. There is a chance of small hail with a few of the storms, however, with the uncertainty not included in the TAFs. A sea breeze is likely at KJFK around midday. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or tsra, mainly for northern terminals. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at night in shra. Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon and evening with showers. SE gusts 20-25 kt. Tuesday: MVFR with SHRA mainly in the morning. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... No changes to winds and seas at this time. Some smoke may linger over the waters, specifically the ocean, through Friday morning. Visibilities should remain above 2-3 nm during this time period. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels into Monday. An increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system could bring a period of SCA winds on the ocean waters Monday night into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with astronomical tides. A few spots may still touch minor benchmarks across the south shore bays of southern Queens and southern Nassau with tonight`s high tide. A coastal flood statement remains from 10pm to 2am. Water levels look to remain below minor benchmarks on Friday has astronomical tides continue to fall. On Friday due to a diminishing swell and weak winds, all ocean beaches will have a low risk of rip currents. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/DS NEAR TERM...BR/DS/MET SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...MET MARINE...BR/DS/MET HYDROLOGY...BR/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1106 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... At least some hazy skies and perhaps some smoke will linger into the weekend as an area of low pressure will continue to drift around New England. A couple of troughs rotating around that low will result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday. High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather for the weekend, followed by low pressure approaching from the west later Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The closed upper low continues to meander around the New England region this evening. Thunderstorms from this afternoon have pushed offshore with only scattered showers remaining on radar, mainly across the north and west. These showers will continue to wane late this evening and give way to dry conditions overnight save for a rogue lingering shower. Mid- level cloud cover will prevail overnight associated with the upper low, primarily across the northern half of our area. Lows will dip into the low 50s. The upper low will slowly continue to retrograde west through the day on Friday. More lobes of vorticity will continue to pinwheel around the low. As a result of the core of the low sliding closer, colder air aloft will remain overhead and a thermal trough will slide through in the afternoon. Similar to Thursday, the colder mid- level air will result in steep mid-level lapse rates, akin to those that produced some just sub-severe (including a report of 1") hail. As the low retrogrades, flow aloft will take a slight westerly turn and we should get some modest moisture advection into the region. The surface low will again maintain backside troughiness across the area, and expect a sea breeze to develop in the afternoon. With mid and upper level flow taking on a slightly more westerly component on Friday, we may begin to see a slight improvement in the thickness of the smoke across the area. Still do expect the skies to be quite hazy, and significant improvement likely won`t come until Saturday into Sunday as winds do finally shift out of the west. Will wait for later runs of the RAP/HRRR smoke products to get a better idea of how smoke density will play out through the day on Friday, but overall expect a similar day to Thursday with improved visibility at least. Precipitation-wise, thinking we`ll see a similar day to Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Diurnal heating will result in MUCAPE values of 500-800 J/kg, but generally weak boundary layer flow will only result in deep shear values around 20 knots, and the mean wind in the cloud bearing layer will also be similar to today in the 20-25 mph resulting in slower moving showers and thunderstorms. Noting though how a similar environment, and rather paltry looking storms produced hail on Thursday, thinking some of the stronger updrafts may also be capable of producing small hail again on Friday, especially with the wet-bulb zero levels again around 7-8kft and relatively dry near-surface air. Expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop (30-50% chance) in the afternoon when diurnal heating is maximized coupled with forcing from rounds of shortwaves, surface troughs, and afternoon sea breeze. Did cut back a bit on NBM PoPs again though as its recent wet bias seemed to be prevalent again tomorrow. As for temperatures, maintained the theme of slightly below guidance as again on Thursday the haze and smoke held MaxTs slightly cooler than forecast. Looking at highs reaching into the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level low pressure along with a weak surface low still hanging across New England heading into Friday night will finally start to make its way eastward and away from our region heading into the weekend. One last shortwave trough rotating around that low may help keep some isolated showers or even a stray thunderstorm around portions of the area on Friday evening, mainly toward northern New Jersey and the Poconos. Otherwise expect any shower activity to quickly diminish through Friday night and into early Saturday. We did opt to leave some slight chance POPs in for the same aforementioned northern portions of our region Saturday afternoon as there may be enough lingering moisture and instability for spotty showers there as some vorticity streams through in northwest flow. For the vast majority of our region though, expect a dry weekend. Smoke and haze may continue to be an issue, though the RAP and HRRR smoke modeling along with the forecast low and mid-level steering flow shifting to more of a west and southwest direction suggest that we will continue to see some gradual improvement in air quality. Additionally, temperatures will warm up through the weekend, with upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday followed by mid to upper 80s for Sunday. Humidity will start to gradually creep up a little, but does not look oppressive, with dewpoints reaching perhaps into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Computer model guidance continues to be in fairly good, consistent agreement that we will see a widespread rainfall across the mid-Atlantic later on Monday or Monday night. Upper- level low pressure closing off across the Great Lakes along with an intensifying surface low will bring a cold front toward our region, with perhaps another wave of low pressure developing as the front moves through. Stuck close to NBM guidance for the rest of the week, though that included some low chance POPs into Tuesday and Wednesday. While most deterministic models have a period of drier weather following the front, there is a possibility for some showers depending on the timing of the passage of the aforementioned upper-low. Depending how slowly that upper-low passes by, the mid to late week period may see temperatures staying closer to normal readings for mid-June, in the low to mid-80s for highs. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight...MVFR visibilities will smoke and haze. Some brief period of IFR visibilities have persisted, so can`t entirely rule out a quick dip to vis below 3 SM, but primarily expect 3-5 SM to prevail. RDG/ABE currently have the best chance to remain at VFR, but a few moments of MVFR cannot be ruled out there. Expect a mid- level cloud deck around 8-10 kft overnight. Wind will turn less than 5 knots overnight, but likely hold out of the north- northwest with the pressure gradient in place. Moderate confidence. Friday...Expect to see some slight improvement in regard to smoke and haze, though MVFR visibility restrictions remain possible as smoke and haze still lingers. Mid level clouds around 5-8 kft will develop late morning and a sea breeze will develop and move inland in the afternoon shifting winds to south-southeast at KMIV/KACY. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (30-50% chance). Latest high resolution models suggest decent coverage across the terminals, so have added a VCTS to the TAFs. Northwesterly wind 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds decrease to around 5 knots at night. Moderate confidence. Sunday...VFR. Winds gradually become more southerly through the day around 10 kts. Moderate confidence. Monday...VFR possibly lowering to MVFR late in the day in the form of reduced ceilings in rainfall. Southerly winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts over 20 kt possible. Low confidence. Tuesday...MVFR to VFR conditions with a low chance for lingering showers. West-southwest winds 10-15 kt. Low confidence. && .MARINE... No marine headlines expected through Friday. Southerly wind tonight around 5 knots becoming northwesterly Friday morning 5-10 knots. A sea breeze should develop in the afternoon and shift winds south- southeasterly. A chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet. Outlook... Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally south- southwest 5-10 kt. Seas of 1 to 3 feet. Sunday and Monday...SCA conditions possible. Winds SSE 10-20 kt, possibly gusting to 25 kt by Monday. Seas building to 3-5 ft. Tuesday...Advisory-level seas around 5 ft may linger, otherwise winds will veer to the SW near 10-15 kt. Rip Currents... Friday...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. Variable winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn S around midday due to afternoon sea breezes. Breaking waves 2 to 4 ft with a 5 to 7 second southeasterly swell. Saturday...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. WNW winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn SSW with the development of an afternoon sea breeze. Breaking waves 3 to 4 ft with a 5 to 7 second southeasterly swell. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Brudy/Johnson/MJL SHORT TERM...Dodd/Deal LONG TERM...Dodd/Deal AVIATION...Brudy/Dodd/MJL MARINE...Brudy/Dodd