Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/08/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
558 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 131 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Showers and thunderstorms will linger mainly over eastern areas this evening. Drier air will filter over the forecast area from the southwest Thursday through early next week, but daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms look to continue along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and potentially over the east central plains on Sunday and Monday. Breezy southwest winds will develop Monday and Tuesday with fire weather concerns mainly south of I-40. Otherwise, high temperatures will continue to be well below normal across northern and central New Mexico for the remainder of this week and early next week, except for the Roswell area where readings may warm near normal by the end of this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 131 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 The overall weather pattern is featuring a steady change to drier southwesterly winds over the state. With a well defined 568dm H5 upper level low centered over the southern Central Valley of CA, dry southwest flow has punched into the southwestern third of the state this morning and shows up well on water vapor imagery. Moisture is is already beginning to mix out, evidenced by dewpoints through western NM lowering into the 20s. This drying will be later and harder to come by in the middle Rio Grande Valley zone but hi-res CAMs like the HRRR show dewpoints falling into the 20s in Albuquerque late afternoon. Forty to fifty degree dewpoint depressions in these areas will allow for strong erratic virga- induced gusty winds from the isolated to scattered convection already developing the Continental Divide into the Rio Grande Valley today. Meanwhile, higher low-level moisture across eastern NM will remain in place allowing for higher rainfall efficiency for these storms developing along the central mountain chain. Burn scar flash flooding remains a threat as a result, and a Flood Watch remains in effect for the Hermit`s Peak and McBride burn areas until 9pm MDT. Cells look to track east to east-northeast across the eastern plains of NM, reaching the TX line this evening. With hi-res CAMs advertising 1500-2500 J/kg and modest shear, a few storms could become strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail, and strong downburst winds being the main threats. Conditions clear out steadily through the evening to midnight tonight. By Thursday, the upper low will be centered over NV with dry southwest flow advancing further into central and eastern NM. This will shift the dryline further east toward TX pushing chances for afternoon convection to northeastern NM. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions will be true through southern, central, and western areas. Model PWs reflect this at ABQ dropping nearly in half from the 0.67" on this morning`s sounding to 0.30" to 0.40". The risk for burn scar flash flooding looks to come to an end as a result tomorrow as much of the convection looks to stay over far northeastern NM including Colfax and Union counties. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Much drier air will continue to advect over the forecast area Friday through Tuesday as a broad upper level low pressure system digs over southern CA then weakens as it lifts northeastward toward the central Rockies. The drier air will enable high temperatures to trend warmer most places through Sunday, and it will suppress convection most places. One area that should continue to see scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms daily Friday through Monday will be the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward due to favorable upper level diffluence and a moist backdoor front sloshing into the northeast corner of NM nightly, then mixing out of the northeast corner of NM daily. Along with the front will probably come nightly rounds of low clouds and potentially some patchy fog across portions of the eastern plains. Models generally agree on the backdoor front advancing further westward Saturday night and Sunday night with the potential for a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley. The advancing low level moisture may cause afternoon showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage over east central areas early in the afternoons Sunday and Monday. However, southwest winds will strengthen Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as a speed maximum aloft crosses southern and eastern areas with a risk of critical fire weather conditions during the late afternoons mainly south of I-40. Dry air may become so entrenched by Tuesday to inhibit convection areawide. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Remaining showers and thunderstorms will push east and north of NM after sunset with VFR conditions and light winds areawide. Any patchy low clouds and or fog are mostly likely to develop in the east- central plains late tonight/early Thursday morning where surface high pressure settles in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 As dry southwesterly flow pushes into western NM to the Rio Grande Valley today, one more round of afternoon storms capable of producing cloud-to-ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, hail, and erratic gusty winds will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain. Isolated to scattered coverage through the Rio Grande Valley to the Continental Divide will be on the dry side, still capable of producing strong erratic gusty winds this afternoon. Dry southwesterly flow pushes further into central and eastern NM Thursday through Saturday. Elevated to short-lived locally critical fire weather conditions will result in western and southern zones with wind speeds being the limiting factor. Winds pick up in speeds a bit more Sunday through Tuesday allowing for higher potential of critical fire weather through western and southern zones. Winds look to lessen by next Wednesday with quasi- zonal flow kicking in. All the while, higher moisture will be hung- up in northeaster NM, repeatedly battered back by the prevailing southwesterly flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 47 82 47 83 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 38 78 37 79 / 20 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 44 77 45 77 / 5 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 38 78 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 76 41 76 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 40 81 42 79 / 5 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 43 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 80 50 79 / 5 0 0 5 Datil........................... 44 77 46 75 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 41 83 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 48 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 37 72 37 72 / 20 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 49 76 51 77 / 5 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 46 76 48 77 / 5 5 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 72 40 72 / 10 10 0 20 Red River....................... 35 68 35 65 / 20 20 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 34 70 33 68 / 10 10 0 20 Taos............................ 39 78 41 77 / 20 5 0 10 Mora............................ 42 74 43 73 / 5 10 0 20 Espanola........................ 48 84 50 84 / 10 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 48 77 49 78 / 5 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 81 48 81 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 85 55 81 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 56 86 56 83 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 88 53 85 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 87 55 84 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 50 88 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 88 54 85 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 88 51 86 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 54 88 55 84 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 50 88 51 86 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 84 53 82 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 87 55 83 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 55 90 57 87 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 76 49 76 / 5 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 49 79 50 79 / 5 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 45 79 47 78 / 5 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 80 45 80 / 5 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 46 77 47 78 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 47 78 48 78 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 48 79 49 79 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 84 56 82 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 77 49 75 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 47 73 47 75 / 50 30 5 30 Raton........................... 46 79 47 78 / 30 20 5 20 Springer........................ 46 81 47 81 / 20 10 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 45 78 45 77 / 10 5 0 10 Clayton......................... 54 79 54 80 / 50 30 5 10 Roy............................. 49 78 50 79 / 30 10 0 10 Conchas......................... 55 86 55 87 / 30 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 52 84 54 86 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 84 55 87 / 30 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 86 57 88 / 40 10 0 0 Portales........................ 57 89 57 90 / 40 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 87 56 89 / 30 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 58 96 59 95 / 30 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 53 88 58 86 / 10 0 0 0 Elk............................. 52 86 55 81 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...33
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
842 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 As the sun sets, the thunderstorms are also falling apart. By midnight most activity should be gone. Overnight lows look fine given higher dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the eastern CWA over the past couple hours. Area is within MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/KG (perhaps slightly higher) and steep low-level lapse rates. Shear is really lacking, so once again we`re seeing pulse-type convection with weak outflows. DCAPE still analyzed below 1000 J/KG currently with RAP progs keeping things below that value through the afternoon. We did have a few landspout reports in Clark county, with brief convection seemingly developing along the main surface boundary which can perhaps be made out on base reflectivity loops over the past couple hours, stretching from the convection near Ellendale, down through Clark county. Look for convection to wane with the loss of daytime heating, but there is potential for a few storms late tonight over the far eastern CWA as CAMs try to show a storm complex moving south across MN. For Thursday, once again, expecting afternoon showers and storms to form, with potential for a few stronger storms within the plume of low-level moisture that develops over the area. Weak/moderate instability develops, but again, shear is lacking - although may be just enough to get a couple stronger storms going. We see 850mb temps becoming a couple degrees cooler across eastern areas on Thursday as the center of the upper high that`s been over us for several days gradually shifts westward, allowing this "cooler" air to move in. Highs on Thursday look to be a couple degrees cooler than today, but that`s about it. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 By 12Z Friday the predominant 500mb high that is over the Northern Plains today will become elongated and shift west, stretching from southern Alberta/Saskatchewan through the western Dakotas and down through west TX. At the surface, low pressure should be set up from southeastern MT through western SD and down through NE, in between nearly steady state areas of high pressure over the Upper great Lakes and Colorado Rockies. Overall, the sensible weather won`t change much for Friday with highs still expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. The main chance will be an increased focus for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with afternoon chances for precipitation increasing to around 50 percent across the entire area. As we move into Friday evening the area of low pressure will sink south in response to a large surface high over south central Canada pushing closer to our area. The result will be showers and storms mainly over western and south central SD Friday night, and then staying to our south Saturday. Dry weather is then expected Saturday afternoon through Monday night, along with a brief cool down. 850mb temperatures will lower from the 15 to 20C to closer to 10 to 15C Saturday through Monday. Expect highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Confidence is pretty high on the temperature forecast, with not a lot of spread in the solutions through at least Tuesday of next week. One thing we haven`t realized a lot of lately is stronger winds. That should at least temporarily change Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens in between the exiting low and nearing high. With improved mixing to near 750mb where it can tap into some of the stronger winds aloft. Although not extreme by any means, this will be much different than the 5-15kts we`ve had from the surface to 500mb over the past several days. A few gust nearing 25-30kts will be possible Saturday afternoon, currently expected to be strongest over our northern counties. The surface should be high overhead Sunday night, and sink to our south Monday. Expect temperatures to return to their above average values by Tuesday, with upper 80s to near 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The mention of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will also be returning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight. Isold/sct thunderstorms this evening will gradually fall apart by sunset. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TDK
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
809 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front stalls across North Carolina tonight, with showers and a few tstms possible as an upper level disturbance passes across the region. The upper low will bring isolated showers and storms to the region Thursday and Friday, before high pressure returns with dry weather and a warming trend for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 810 PM Wednesday... GOES water vapor channels depict a deep upper low centered over ME, with cyclonic flow from the Great Lakes to the Mid- Atlantic. At the surface, a weak cold front has become nearly stationary over southern VA/NE NC. Showers/thunderstorms have formed across the southern portion of the FA this evening. These are more isolated across the SW piedmont, becoming more widespread across Hampton Roads and NE NC. Smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to effect the region with reduced vsby and poor air quality. Temperatures have cooled into the low-mid 60s where rain has moved through across the south, slightly warmer across the north it has stayed dry. PoPs diminish from NW-SE as the upper trough axis slides across the area. It is somewhat challenging with regard to how much smoke will affect vsby tonight. However, smoke will likely persist despite the 500-700mb flow becoming WNW as a considerable amount of smoke is embedded within the broader upper trough. Low temperatures range from the lower 50s over the Piedmont, to the upper 50s/around 60F toward the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... Clouds clear out Thursday morning. However, a smoky haze will likely persist as the HRRR smoke forecast continues to advect smoke into the region. Again, confidence is low with regard to vsby restriction, but the 07/12z run depicted some denser smoke arriving during the day Thursday. By afternoon, isolated showers/tstms are possible (15-20% PoP) mainly near the coast in NE NC/SE VA and over the Eastern Shore as another shortwave moves in from the W/NW. Dry Thursday night with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s W to the mid/upper 50s toward the coast. Friday, the forecast is for a more stronger and pronounced shortwave to rotate through the upper trough as it finally exits to the coast by Friday night. PoPs for showers/tstms range from 15-20% S/SW to 30-40% far N. High temperatures are in the mid/upper 70s/around 80F Thursday and Friday. Dry Saturday, and smoke may finally clear behind the upper trough axis. High temperatures range from the lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... Upper trough will finally be on its way out later Saturday into Sunday. Upper-level heights will continue to rise, with the first hint of ridging developing over the area in quite a while (2+ weeks). This will likely allow temperatures to rebound above seasonal norms with highs in the mid 80s to around 90. Another cut off upper low then forms over the Upper Great Lakes region and slowly moves E into Monday. Associated 500 mb shortwave trough will also pivot across the OH River Valley into the Appalachians. The main sfc feature with this system will be a cold front that crosses the area Monday aftn into early Tuesday. This looks to bring the next chance of rather widespread showers/rain to area, with thunderstorms also possible if the FROPA occurs during the favorable diurnal window. Rather good agreement between the global models on the precip footprint, so have nudged PoPs up into the 60-70% range areawide for Monday aftn and evening. Highs in the lower 80s Mon, possibly falling through the day/evening after the FROPA. Broad troughing then remains over the area through the middle of next week with embedded shortwaves also sliding E. This pattern would favor daily (slight) chances of mainly diurnal showers/tstms with near to slightly below normal temps. Highs next Tues-Thurs mainly in the low 80s, possibly warming in the upper 80s by the end of the week. Lows generally in the low-mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 810 PM EDT Wednesday... Deep low pressure continues to spin over Atlantic Canada/Northern New England, with a cold front lagging back into southern VA/NE NC. Sct showers and a few tstms are moving across the southern portion of the FA this evening, tapering off from NW to SE later tonight. Occasional vsby restrictions in rain are possible in addition to smoke/haze tonight. Patchy stratus are possible later tonight/early Thursday morning across southern VA/NE NC, with MVFR/IFR cigs. Morning stratus should lift and scatter with isolated showers/tstms possible during the aftn, especially toward the coast. Haze/smoke will likely persist Thursday. The wind will be light out of the S tonight, and then remain light become N/NE Thursday. Mainly VFR Thursday night through Sunday. A few showers/tstms are possible Friday aftn as an upper trough slides through the area. Dry conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday. A chc of showers/tstms arrives Monday. && .MARINE... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... Smoke from wildfires in Canada will continue to impacting the area through at least tomorrow, causing reduced visibility over local waters. Visibility will be 1 to 3 sm. Winds are S 10-15 kt this evening before becoming SW 5-10 kt later tonight. Shower and an isolated thunderstorm may move off the coast of southern VA and northern NC this evening. High pressure gradually builds in from the Great Lakes Thurs into Sat, centering over the Carolinas Sat with winds 5-10 kt. Winds will follow a typical summertime diurnal pattern, shifting from offshore in the morning to onshore in the afternoon. High pressure moves offshore Sat night. A warm front lifts N late Sun into early Mon with a cold front pushing through from the W late Mon night into Tues morning. S winds 10-15 kt Sat night and Sun increase to 15-20 kt late Sun through early Mon night with SCAs possible. Winds become W 10-15 kt late Mon night/early Tues morning behind the cold front. Waves and seas remain around 1 foot (1-2 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 2 ft respectively today. Seas briefly build to 2-3 ft tonight. Waves and seas build Sat night into Mon with 2-3 ft waves and 4-5 ft seas possible from late Sun afternoon into Mon night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/AM SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...AJZ/AM MARINE...CP/RMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1049 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Key Messages: - Elevated fire weather conditions due to low humidities this afternoon and tomorrow in the low 20s east of the Mississippi River. - Chance (40-60%) for showers and storms across the region on Saturday but the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall is low. - Continued seasonable temperatures into the start of next week with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Late this Afternoon through Tomorrow: A dry pattern continues into the end of the week as this dominant ridge over the central US will continue to slowly retrograde westbound over the coming days providing flow from the northeast over our region and allowing for the transport of drier air throughout the day today. As a result, dewpoints should fall over the course of the day which will lead to relative humidities falling to around 20 percent in areas east of the Mississippi when combined with mixing heights of around 800mb. Hence there is an elevated fire weather risk for this afternoon when also considering the Build-Up Index in portions of Wisconsin. Low temperatures should fall tonight into the upper 40s and low 50s with continued clear skies overnight and dry conditions. Our cranberry bog locations in Central Wisconsin are likely to cool into the upper 30s. Additionally, there is an outside chance (5-10%) for frost in these typically cooler areas more if near-saturation can be reached. Tomorrow conditions will be hazy again with the current 07.09 RAP Vertically-Integrated smoke fields suggesting increased smoke presence aloft with southwesterly flow around the ridge advecting drier and smoke filled air aloft from eastern Canada where active wildfires are still present. A low relative humidity day seems likely tomorrow as well with latest 07.09 RAP guidance indicating fairly high mixing heights to around 800mb again suggesting lower relative humidities into the low 20s. Some uncertainty remains however concerning potential upper-level smoke and its ability to inhibit some mixing which could keep dewpoints higher and maximum temperatures lower tomorrow. Friday and Saturday: Precipitation chances return going into the weekend as a shortwave trough begins to progress through our region. Best chances for showers and storms are on Saturday afternoon with a boundary that moves from north to south through the course of the day. Generally speaking very minimal CAPE on the order of a couple hundred J/kg should limit severe potential on Saturday with precip amounts on the lighter side when considering GFS precipitable water being lower (~1.25") and with EC ensembles tending to keep values on the order of 0.25" with some members suggesting amounts upwards of an inch, which could be possible in isolated longer lived cells. Into Next Week: Some uncertainty exists as to how the upper-level pattern will take shape over the Great Lakes region going into next week as the trough pivots out of our region. Most guidance tends to want to form a closed upper-level low that breaks off from the wave however it unclear as to where guidance wants to position this upper-level low. EC guidance tends to want to form the low further to the west which could increase precipitation chances going into next week, however other long range guidance tends to keep the low developing further to the east which would limit precipitation potential across our region. Regardless as the trough passes through over the weekend, temperatures should remain pleasant and seasonable with highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s through Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. As a ridge of higher pressure moves south across the region, winds are expected to back from southeast to northeast this afternoon, remaining less than 10 knots. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Naylor AVIATION...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1011 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of smoke will continue across the region tonight. Conditions will improve on Thursday as the dense smoke is expected to shift to the west. An upper level low in eastern New England will bring scattered showers to the region Thursday into Saturday, but with only light rainfall amounts. There will be a better chance of much needed rain late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 1011 PM update... No major changes made to the forecast this evening. Latest high resolution model guidance was used to try to time the area of light rain in central NY dropping south with an upper short wave, dissipating in the next 2-4 hours and then becoming slightly more healthy by Thu morning. Areas of smoke are expected to continue through tonight before some light improvement through the day tomorrow according to the latest run from the HRRR Smoke model and based on the overall flow pattern setting up around the cutoff upper low to the east. 330 PM Update... Smoke remains widespread across the area, though visibility is beginning to improve over parts of Central NY, mainly east of the Finger Lakes. The densest smoke now extends across the Finger Lakes and a wide swath of NE PA, as seen via satellite, visibility obs, and EPA Air Quality sensors. A few rain showers may actually graze parts of the Thruway corridor this evening, though QPF amounts will be scant. HRRR forecasts keep the densest smoke west of our area on Friday. In addition, weak disturbances moving around a retrograding upper low will bring a chance for light rain showers to a wider area Thursday and Friday, though amounts will again be light. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 3:30 PM Update... The upper low that has been lingering around for the past several days will remain over the Northeast for one more day Friday before lifting northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes Saturday. This will keep a cool, northwesterly flow in place leading to afternoon highs in the 60s, and can also allow for some smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires to potentially continue. Spotty showers will be around the CWA, mainly during the afternoon and evening, with the best chance being over the higher terrain in the east. PoPs were adjusted Friday into Saturday to reflect this. There can be an isolated thunderstorm as well. As the upper low moves away Saturday, there can still be a stray shower or two, but at least afternoon high temperatures will start to moderate back into the 70s after another chilly start with overnight lows Friday night in the 40s. Weak upper-level ridging will begin to build in Saturday night and winds will be shifting more out of the west-southwest which will lead to a reduction in smoke and haze over the region and a milder night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 3:30 PM Update... Dry weather will be in place Sunday with the ridge of high pressure overhead and weak high pressure developing at the surface. Winds will also become more southerly for the second half of the weekend promoting warmer temperatures as highs climb into the upper 70s to even the low 80s, especially in the Wyoming Valley. Farther west, a developing low pressure area will form over the Great Lakes region and will be the next feature to impact the area as it gradually moves eastward in the coming days. The GFS is the fastest at bringing precipitation into the area with some warm advection showers with the 00z and 06z runs showing spotty activity Sunday night, but the latest 12z run is quicker with stray showers around later Sunday afternoon. However, the Euro and Canadian are slower and drier with showers holding off until Monday with some slight timing differences. Leaning toward the slower solution, PoPs were lowered a bit from the NBM. As this low lifts north, the associated occluding cold front is expected to move across the CWA later Monday into Monday night and this could produce a band of showers or even a period of steadier rainfall along with a thunderstorm. A dry slot will try to push through the area in the wake of this front before wrap around spotty showers from the lagging upper low develop Tuesday and Wednesday as the low slowly moves across New England. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be mainly in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread smoke continues to affect the region, with a line of showers moving southward. The mix of incoming showers and smoke are will have RME and SYR bouncing between MVFR and IFR through the early morning hours. After these showers roll through early this morning, smoke will linger around RME and SYR but gradually dissipate through the day. Guidance suggests the timing of improving visibilities sometime mid- to late- morning, and improve to VFR conditions. Current IFR visibilities for ITH look to improve to VFR by mid- to late- morning as showers move through the area and the smoke dissipates. ELM and BGM follow a similar trend, except originating with MVFR conditions. Smoke around AVP looks to dissipate quicker, and visibilities are expected to improve to VFR by sunrise. Outlook... Thursday Night through Friday...Mostly VFR; Chance for showers each day, which may lead to brief restrictions. Haze and smoke possible but with limited visibility impacts. Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Sunday and Monday...Possible restrictions in showers late Sunday into Monday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/MWG NEAR TERM...BJT/MPH SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1000 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to create hazy skies and in some cases unhealthy air quality into Thursday. Temperatures will trend modestly cooler through late week with an increased risk of diurnal rain showers Thursday and Friday. A warming trend over the weekend should precede an opportunity for much needed widespread rainfall Sunday night through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A hazy and smokey evening for many as visibilities remain below 2 miles in some locations and between 4 and 6 in most. Anomalous 500mb trough continues to slowly pivot/expand to the southwest from New England and the Mid Atlantic states down into the Central Appalachians overnight, directing smoke from Quebec and Ontario wildfires over Pennsylvania. Despite the smoke, it will be another mainly clear and cool night with mins in the 40-50F range. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HRRR near sfc smoke indicates that the smoke concentrations will continue to be variable and on the high side, which will continue to bring hazy skies, reduced visibility and areas of poor air quality on Thursday. Cool temps aloft/below normal 850-700mb temps underneath the deep trough combined with marginal instability should generate sct diurnal convection Thu afternoon. Model consensus suggests the northern part of the CWA will have the best shot at picking up some spotty light rain or perhaps a brief thundershower. Shower activity should wane with the loss of heating into Thursday night with another cool overnight period with below climo min temps in the 40-50F range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The various ensemble prediction systems remain consistent in their depiction of the large-scale pattern heading into the weekend and early next week. The pattern will consist of a low amplitude upper trough axis across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS, with an upper ridge axis holding firm over the middle of the CONUS and central Canada. Resultant NW flow aloft will keep any sustained heat well west of the Commonwealth, with a progressive surface cold front likely to cross the region Sunday or Monday. However, transition from current blocking pattern is still not fully certain, and so what we can say for sure is that Sunday into Monday may present the best CHANCE of rain we`ll see for the next week, but it`s far from certain at this early time. As for the daily sensible weather, Saturday continues to look mainly dry. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Sunday, tied to the aforementioned cold front. Shower chances may linger into Monday, depending on the progression of the frontal zone. Friday`s highs in the 70s, will warm into the mid 70s-mid 80s over the weekend, before edging downward into the 70s range again on Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Smoke from wildfires over Quebec will continue to affect the airspace. Widespread MVFR is likely tonight in varying thickness of smoke and decreased vertical mixing. Pockets of IFR are also possible. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Isold PM tsra. MVFR Vsbys in smoke with localized IFR vsbys possible -mainly Thursday. Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...Higher likelihood of SHRA and TSRA, especially PM && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated risk fire weather conditions expected into the early evening hours and likely Thursday across most of central PA. Dry fine fuels combined with RHs of 20-30% and sustained wind 10-15 mph are all signaling increased potential for wildfire spread. The wind is moderately gusty but not as strong as yesterday, and will be relaxing over the next several hours. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Jurewicz/DeVoir AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 ...updated aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 This afternoon`s water vapor satellite imagery and RAP analysis overlay does not look too much different from 24 hours prior. The key three synoptic features remain: 1) Upper low centered over California, 2) Upper high centered across the Dakotas, and 3) A very large scale gyre centered over Maine with with numerous other sub- synoptic scale perturbations rotating around the larger general cyclonic circulation. Across southwestern Kansas, we remain in a light easterly flow at 500mb at the very southern periphery of the Dakotas high. This pattern has kept MSLPs high and winds rather light as a result. That said, we`ve seen just enough of a MSLP drop across northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado to induce just a little bit more pressure gradient to support a south to southeast breeze across our western counties, particularly near Colorado border. This is about the only change of notice in our sensible weather versus the past couple of days. We will once again see isolated to widely scattered convection form, with barely enough forecast coverage to support 25 to 20 POPs late afternoon through this evening. The better organized convective activity will remain south of southwest Kansas where a minor mesoscale convective vort (MCV) remained from last night`s storms across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. These storms will remain south of us. The other area of storms tonight will be confined to our west-southwest that will remain largely tied to the typical terrain features such as the Raton Mesa. We will hold on to some 20-30 POPs around Elkhart -- the portion of our forecast area closest to any of these western terrain features. Tonight, another fairly calm and quiet night is expected with any remaining shower/thunderstorm activity dying off by mid evening. Thursday, temperatures will continue to slowly warm another degree or two over today`s afternoon temperatures with more of the forecast area showing afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. It could touch 90 in our central and south central KS zones, but the farther southwest areas will likely top out in the lower 80s again. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible again Thursday afternoon, but mid level winds will remain weak, insufficient for any severe storms. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 The upper level ridge across the Central and Northern Plains will finally break down enough to allow some increase in mid-upper tropospheric winds to develop across southwest and west central Kansas Friday afternoon. The latest GFS model shows a nice 250mb jet streak moving out of New Mexico into southeast Colorado and adjacent southwest Kansas late Friday afternoon and evening. A small surface low is expected to develop in the classic location around Springfield, CO if not a bit west of there and low level convergence will be increasing in this area by afternoon as well. Severe weather parameters will increase with increased 0-6km AGL shear of 20 to 25 knots -- supportive of organized multicell clusters if not a marginal supercell structure out across southeast Colorado or far southwest Kansas. There is increasing signal of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) developing later in the night Friday as 850- 700mb frontogenesis increases across southwest and/or west central Kansas with good low level moisture transport into the region. For that reason, there are 40-50 POPs Friday Night across much of our area. The latest Day 3 SPC Convective Outlook shows a Marginal Risk for severe across the southwestern third of our forecast area. This risk area may even be expanded north in future outlooks if other models trend toward today`s fairly aggressive GFS run. Beyond Friday, there will be daily/nightly thunderstorm chances. In fact, SPC Day 4 for Saturday has a 15% prob outlook just to our south across western Oklahoma -- touching the south central KS border. A lot of what happens on Saturday will depend on strength and placement of cold pool/bubble high left behind whatever MCS occurs the night before. Mid to late June is our prime MCS season, and a lot of the forecasting depends highly on what has happened the night before with respect to MCS intensity/longevity. Later into the weekend, a cold front will push south across Kansas, perhaps fairly early in the day Sunday which would shut off our surface-based severe thunderstorm risk. There will still be a decent enough mid level baroclinic zone with some flow field deformation 800-700mb north of the surface front to support elevated showers and storms Sunday/Sunday Night, but there is quite a bit of model uncertainty with respect to that. Going into next week, it still looks like a decent severe weather pattern for portions of the Central and Southern Plains as a robust mid/upper jet streak rounds the southern/southeastern periphery of the next California upper low. The difference next week is there will be no blocking mid/upper high in the Central/Southern Plains, so much of that jet energy will push out onto the plains quite readily and as early as Monday next week. On Monday, though, southwest Kansas will still be on the cool side of the remnant front, however renewed cyclogenesis will likely occur across Colorado and we will be seeing post-frontal winds become southeasterly with quite a bit of moisture. In fact, Monday Night could be a really interesting setting for another classic eastern Colorado-western Kansas MCS late in the evening/overnight. This is the reason for 40+ POPs western half of the forecast area Monday Night. The forecast becomes quite difficult after Monday Night, but the global models show what`s left of the California upper low moving across the Rockies into the Central Plains Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with the polar front somewhere nearby southwest Kansas and a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture in place. It could be interesting across portions of Kansas early to mid next week (severe weather and/or excessive rainfall), so keep checking back for forecast updates concerning the rather active-looking 12-14 June period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 VFR is expected through TAF pd. Light SE/S winds 5-15 kt. Storm coverage will remain too isolated and of low impacts to the terminals, so will leave out CB/TS groups in for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 61 87 62 88 / 70 10 10 20 GCK 59 86 60 86 / 20 0 10 20 EHA 58 83 59 87 / 10 10 10 10 LBL 59 85 61 87 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 63 90 63 88 / 0 10 20 40 P28 64 90 65 89 / 20 20 20 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
833 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Current forecast remains on track this evening. Radar is picking up on shower activity associated with a decaying thunderstorm over Palo Alto county this evening. Expect convection to decrease this evening and then ramp up in the early morning hours across western Iowa. Current CAMs show convection entering western and northern portions of the CWA by 7 or 8z associated with an area of instability. Potential for some sub-severe hail and wind exists as indicated through soundings over western IA. Have adjusted PoPs accordingly to account for this activity and will continue to monitor. && .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/ Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Forecast Impacts for the week: ...Scat showers/storms into west tonight ...Backdoor front exits west tomorrow morning ...Sct storms Sat/early Sun and dry Sun PM/Mon/Tue Confidence Short Term: Medium to High Weak synoptic pattern continues over the region through period with transition back to Great Lakes high as we move into Thursday. Forecast pretty much on track with large scale low off the New England Coast edging back west while surface ridge over the Great Lakes continues to drift southwest this period as well. Early morning showers/storms over north central Iowa taking same track as Tuesdays round, with most diving nearly due south with time, aided by weak northerly flow from H850 to H700. Similar to Tuesday, festering area of showers/storms will continue to weaken early as area increased activity shifts to the west in the afternoon hours. Subjective 12z analysis shows the greater moisture axis now stretching from I35 west to the Missouri River Valley. Through evening into the overnight, scattered storms should fire again from north central to western Iowa into the overnight. RAP soundings suggest the greater instability will be from Estherville south to Creston where the environment will have a better chance of recovering into the evening with mainly wind gusts and some chance for hail within this area. Upstream in northern Minnesota, there is another area of showers/storms tied to weak warm air advection. Both hi-res and synoptic models trends continue to show a few more rounds dropping south through Thursday morning. Tonights lows will dip to the lower 50s east to 60 west. Tomorrow highs should recover a bit into the upper 70s/near 80. Outside of the NAMNest, most solutions diminish the northern MN convection prior to arriving in Iowa, so have kept some PoPs mainly in the west for tomorrow. Slightly cooler air will be arriving at H850 tomorrow and given lingering cloud cover, will trend highs down a few degrees over the region. Winds again will remain generally light for the region. Tomorrow night mins will be comfortable with lower dewpoints. && .LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Confidence: Medium to High Overall confidence for the weekend remains the same. Friday high pressure will remain through the day with the deeper moisture channel still from North Dakota south to the Southern Plains. Ensemble guidance is once again temporally spreading out the solution with an earlier arrival of storms into our area for Friday afternoon/evening, rather than the more preferred late night arrival in the deterministic models. Like the current pattern, once the moisture channel sets up late Friday night into early Sunday morning, PWATs will pool to 1.5 to 1.75 along any apparent boundaries. A developing cold front and associated Canadian High will drop south into northwest Iowa by 12z Saturday. The deterministic models are in good agreement with the boundary settling into central/southern Iowa by 00z. The instability shear parameter space suggests the west/south will be most at risk for potential severe storms. 0-6km bulk wind shear is a bit below the preferred threshold of 30kts, but with a potential for a developing weak surface low from 00 to 12z, some stronger storms/locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially south of I80 in the early evening. There is some difference on the departure time between the Euro/GFS with the Euro now lagging the GFS by 3-6 hours. This uncertainty will only apply to Sunday morning as the arrival of the high will force much drier and cooler air into the region for the remainder of the day. Rainfall amounts over the weekend will be tied to some warm advection processes into midday Saturday and then the boundary/low sweeping into southern Iowa during the night. Overall given the PWATs, some areas in the west could see a half inch with areas south of I80 running a half to 1 to 2 inches into Sunday morning. Highs Friday and Saturday with generally be in the lower 80s, cooling to the 70s Sunday and Monday. Confidence is somewhat lower heading toward the very end of the period. While the GEFs/GFS suite brings some precipitation back into the picture by Wednesday, the Euro/GEM keep the region mainly dry with a stronger and blocking Great Lakes low that allows for continuous northerly flow into the state through at least Wednesday. Temperatures will likely increase by Wednesday; back to the lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/ Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are developing west of our terminal sites this evening. Did not include mentions of VCSH or VCTS over KFOD, as confidence was low in westward extent, but will re- evaluate throughout the period. VFR conditions will prevail throughout this evening, and winds will generally be from the east southeast at 9 kts or less. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Castillo/Hagenhoff SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...Castillo/Hagenhoff
For this long-term forecast discussion, the main focus remains on a
variable/evolving weather pattern that could lead to potential severe
weather and additional bouts of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. However, there still remains some variability in run-to-run consistency between the forecast guidance, which is leading to persistent uncertainty on how high-impact of a potential event we might observed. That being said, let`s dive into it. Beginning with Friday, this appears to be the last day of the more persistent weather pattern that has been observed the past couple weeks. A trough of low pressure will continue to deepen over the western United States while a ridge of high pressure weakens over the Great Plains. These changes signal the turbulent weather pattern upcoming. As this happens, a shortwave trough should move out over the Plains during the day Friday. At the surface, forecast guidance seems to hint at a surface trough across the High Plains at the time of shortwave passage, and it does also appear there is a thermal and moisture component to this as well. All that being said, it appears some type of boundary will be in the area to serve as a focus for thunderstorm development over our area, rather than watching all the activity form over the Rockies. Instability should be decent with SBCape between 1000-1500 j/kg and lapse rates of 7-8.5 C/km. Wind shear remains poor though with 0-6 km bulk shear less than 20 kts areawide, and most of the area would see values less than 15 kts. In the end, would not anticipate much in the way of severe weather with this type of environment, but wouldn`t surprise me if we observe a few strong to severe storms and also some reports of heavy rain with slow storm movements. On Saturday and into Sunday, the first different type of weather pattern change occurs in the form of a cold front moving through the region. Saturday looks to be an active weather day with the front passage and thunderstorms forming along the front, while Sunday may be quiet in the post-frontal environment. It`s difficult to talk much about the environment at this time as there seem to be big differences in how the models are handling the pre-frontal environment. Either way, wind shear will still be quiet weak...0-6 km bulk shear of less than 10 kts across most of the area, so storm organization will be tied to the movement of the front and any resulting outflows from the storms themselves. Therefore, uncertain about the severe chances but any severe storms that do occur would be of a lower scale intensity. Heavy rainfall looks to be the bigger threat given PWATs of around 1.30" predicted, which is more than the 90th percentile. However, the front seems like it`ll be moving along at a good pace so this would reduce the potential of flash flooding. On Sunday, this will be one to watch. I know earlier I said that I was thinking the pre-frontal environment should lead to a lack in thunderstorm activity. However, on Sunday, we will finally have wind shear in the area which would promote thunderstorm organization and sustained activity. The key will be the instability, which currently appears to be quite low and not capable of sustaining severe storms. Storms should form to the west, over the Colorado Front Range, and move east...but how far they are able to move through the more stable environment is the big question. For now, it looks like they`ll be able to make it into the NWS Goodland forecast area, but they should be non-severe in nature by the time they move in. Going into next week, parameters are now looking more favorable for severe weather as the wind shear appears to be higher than what previous model runs have indicated. The instability won`t be a problem as the incoming upper level trough of low pressure will promote lee cyclogenesis, and that developing surface low pressure should lead to substantial return flow. Stronger shortwave troughs look to eject over the High Plains both Monday and Tuesday, leading to thunderstorm development along the surface boundaries, which it seems we`ll have a true dryline to work with on both days, and potentially an additional warm front on Monday. The dryline will be over eastern Colorado on Monday, and bisecting the region on Tuesday, leaving locations behind the dryline out of the severe weather threat for Tuesday. As hinted at above, the overall setup, environment, and wind shear seem quite favorable for severe weather, but will still hold off on ramping up the messaging as guidance has yet to settle on a preferred solution and this is the first real sign of a potential stretch of severe weather. Stay tuned to the forecast as next week could bring a large threat for severe thunderstorms than the previous couple weeks. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 531 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected for the entire 00Z TAF period beginning with southeasterly winds around 10 kts. By 03Z, KGLD expects winds to become variable around 6 kts through the remainder of the period. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period starting with southeasterly winds around 7 kts. By 02Z, KMCK winds are forecast to become variable around 5 kts going through the rest of the period. There is a slight chance for vicinity showers for KGLD for a few hours at the beginning of the 00Z period with outflow approaching the terminal from the south, but not enough confidence to add it into the TAF. Not anticipating it to affect flight conditions though. Will monitor and amend TAF if needed. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...076
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
925 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Despite the dry air, low level convergence over the interior of Lwr MI related to inverted sfc trough helped trigger some widely scattered showers with locally gusty winds this evening. There was even a thunderstorm near Carson City and Hubbardston around 715 PM. This activity has been reluctant to dissipate and is now sliding south toward BTL and RMY. Expect the showers over south cntrl Lwr MI to end by midnight with loss of heating then clear skies to follow, although the smoke smell will linger per HRRR near-sfc smoke progs. The smoke has actually lowered the visibility to 5 miles this evening at LAN/MOP/AMN. The Red Flag warning was allowed to expire at 9 PM but another one will likely be needed for the same area Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Latest vis loop shows another plume of smoke moving southwestward from northeast Lower. Latest RAP Vertically Integrated Smoke data suggests that this plume will move mostly south with time and thin out this evening. Another dense plume of smoke aloft is progd to move SSWward across eastern Lower Thursday, but this may miss our cwa. High pressure over Ontario will continue to produce a northeast wind flow across southwest Lower through tomorrow night. Thus mostly clear skies and low dewpoints can be expected through the period. Lows tonight and Thursday night will be in the 40s and highs Thursday in the mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 323 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A welcome pattern change is expected over the weekend as an upper low cuts off and lingers over the central Great Lakes into early next week. This is expected to bring periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms from Saturday night through Tuesday. Rain amounts could be highly variable with anywhere from 0.25 to over 2 inches across the forecast area by Wednesday, which will help ease the fire concerns next week. Given the very dry period since mid-April, and especially since May 20th, this rain could have one non-beneficial aspect to look out for. This is the potential for highways, especially ramps, to become very slippery as the rain water interacts oily accretion over the last several weeks. There is a break in the precip on Wednesday in shortwave ridging but this is followed by another low bringing more rain by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 A few isolated showers (and even a brief tstm) developed earlier east/northeast of GRR but are expected to dissipate by 01-02Z. Otherwise a continuation of VFR weather is expected to prevail tonight and Thursday. Have maintained the slight vsby reduction in the TAFS of 6 miles due to smoke/haze, and there`s still a slight chance of a few MVFR vsbys of 5 miles (MOP and AMN currently are at 5SM). Scattered clouds around 6000 ft expected to develop by Thursday afternoon and can`t totally rule out a few isolated late showers such as what is occurring now. Northerly winds diminishing before midnight, then increasing and becoming gusty again Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 We`ll continue with the marine/beach headlines as the event it just beginning . Waves will build to 3-5 feet later this afternoon before diminishing late evening. A similar situation occurs Thursday with north winds increasing after noon; another Small Craft Advisory may be needed south of Whitehall then. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>846. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ847>849. && $$ UPDATE...Meade SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...Ostuno AVIATION...Meade MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .Forecast Update... Issued at 937 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 IR satellite was showing clear skies over much of central Indiana with some patches of cu dropping south across northeastern sections, associated with a vorticity lobe on the back side of the New England upper low. Meanwhile, low level winds were dying off in weak surface pressure gradient with the center of the high over northern Quebec providing NNE flow. The flow on the back side of the upper low and front side of the high will continue to bring in smoke from the Quebec wildfires as a temperature inversion develops again tonight with mostly cloud free skies. Dew points were in the lower 30s and middle 30s over locales northeast of I-74 but those will rise a bit late tonight with decoupling. The lack of cloud cover, light winds and dry column will allow for good radiational cooling despite the smoke and overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .Short Term...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 * Dry conditions continuing into tomorrow * Poor air quality and hazy conditions persist .This evening and tonight... Latest satellite imagery shows the backside of showers and clouds pushing south of the region towards the Ohio River. A reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air arrives tonight and tomorrow from the next Canadian High pressure to dive into the region. Currently, this area of high pressure is centered over northern Ontario with northerly flow extending all the way down into the Ohio Valley. Expect conditions to continue to clear and dry out this evening and tonight. While the skies may become cloud free, satellite imagery shows smoke continuing to advect into the region due to persistent northerly/northeasterly flow. Still expecting good radiational cooling tonight with mainly clear skies (other than the upper level smoke), lighter winds, and dry air resulting in lows dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s in most locations. .Thursday... Surface high pressure sinks southward tomorrow into the Northern Great Lakes region while northerly flow in the upper levels increases as upper level short waves rotate about the strong upper low over the Northeast. This pattern favors continued northeasterly flow from Canada into the Ohio Valley resulting in smokey/hazy conditions for Thursday as well. While skies may be clear technically, hazy conditions during the day may reduce visibility at times. RAP soundings indicate a dry environment tomorrow with high mixing levels allowing highs to reach the mid to upper 70s despite cold air advection aloft. Went below guidance for dew points and RH values tomorrow afternoon nudging values towards the NBM 10th percentile. Min RH values and continued dry conditions may lead to an elevated fire threat Thursday afternoon. One limiting factor will be light winds under 10 kts; however would not be surprised to see sporadic gusts to 15-19 kts during peak heating of the day. && .Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Thursday night through Saturday... Expect dry conditions initially with subtle ridging and surface high pressure across the region. Northerly flow aloft could advect more smoke into the area on Friday, but this should be less of a concern over the weekend as flow becomes more westerly. Expect temperatures to gradually warm with increasing heights aloft. Look for highs near on Friday with mid 80s on Saturday. Saturday night through Sunday night... A large upper low moving across the Great Lakes region late in the weekend will result in a more active pattern. Guidance shows anomalous moisture return on Sunday with increasing warm air advection. This in addition to strong upper level forcing from the deep upper level low will support widespread precipitation. Rain should begin to overspread western portions of the CWA late Saturday night and spread across central Indiana on Sunday. The best chance for precipitation will likely be Sunday afternoon and into the evening before cold air advection begins to filter in late overnight. Ensemble QPF probabilities suggest most areas should see around half an inch of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible. This is good news considering much of central Indiana has been abnormally dry. Monday through Wednesday... The aforementioned upper level low will slowly move east across the Great Lakes region and is expected to influence our weather through Tuesday. Broad cyclonic flow around the low and lingering low level moisture should result in scattered showers on Monday, mainly in the afternoon with diurnal heating. Cold air advection may result in some weak elevated instability, but Thunder appears unlikely. A few showers cannot be ruled out Tuesday, but weaker forcing and slightly less moisture leads to lower confidence in rain chances. Cooler air filtering will generally keep highs in the mid 70s on Monday before moderating towards midweek. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Impacts: - Haze and smoke may lower the visibility to MVFR at times Discussion: Northeast winds will continue to bring in smoke from the Quebec wildfires through the TAF period per satellite trends. This could result in MVFR flying conditions at times. Otherwise, high pressure and a very dry column will lead to VFR dominating. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...MK Short Term...CM Long Term...Melo Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
912 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 The going forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to better align with observations. Winds have continued to ease this evening as the surface high over northern Wisconsin continues to drift into the area. Light winds generally in the 5 to 10 mph range are expected for most overnight, though breezier conditions are expected for areas near the lake where a slightly mixed marine layer will keep winds elevated into the predawn hours of Thursday morning. Waves are also expected to remain elevated at area beaches through the night due to these winds where a Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through 4 AM CDT. Some lingering wildfire smoke aloft will keep a slight haze to the sky overnight but should do little to prevent temperatures from cooling into upper 40s and lower 50s by daybreak on Thursday. Another mild late spring afternoon is expected for Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland with 60s near the lake. Though a thicker plume of smoke looks to keep things a bit more hazy than today, but still plenty of sunshine to be had otherwise. Yack && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Through Thursday night... A small field of cumulus clouds have cropped up over a portion of northeastern Illinois. While much of satellite imagery seems clear, there remains elevated smoke from the Canadian wildfires that is still causing a thing veil of haze aloft across the region. Temperatures are mostly in the mid-70s, with isolated upper 60s/low 70s closer to the lakeshore. Dewpoints remain in the low 40s keeping dry conditions and an enhanced fire threat in place in the short term. The main weather impact for the next 24 hours will be the strengthening northerly winds early Wednesday evening through the overnight hours. With the expectations of wind gusts around 20 mph, wave heights on Lake Michigan will increase creating dangerous swimming conditions. Heights 3 to 5 feet are forecast, locally up to 6 feet. A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect for all southern Lake Michigan beaches through 4 AM. With little synoptic change in the atmosphere, similar conditions are expected on Thursday, if not a degree or two cooler. Given the stronger southerly push of Canadian smoke around the Eastern Seaboard, both the HRRR and RAP Smoke models have a westward push of near surface smoke. While widespread air quality issues are not expected, the forecast was adjusted to incorporate more haze for the Chicagoland area. For greater awareness, the state Indiana has issued an Air Quality Alert. DK && .LONG TERM... Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Friday through Wednesday... Extensive blocking across the central and eastern CONUS over the past several weeks finally appears poised to breakdown through next week. However, this is contingent on the evolution of a developing cutoff low across settling across southern California this weekend. Meanwhile, an initial trough attempting to break through a narrowing ridge across the northern Plains will become an impetus for potential widespread rain in our area late Saturday through Sunday. While favorable dynamics will be in place with a seasonably strong upper jet streak, appreciable low-level moisture will be slow to arrive. Will therefore remain more cautious of latching onto substantial widespread rainfall as more organized convection will likely remain south and west of the CWA. Guidance continues to trend toward a broader upper low drifting across the Great Lakes region late weekend into early next week. This will favor a period of seasonably cool conditions with perhaps some spotty showers or embedded storms Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a NE to N wind surge Sunday into as late as Monday morning will promote dangerous swim conditions along the Lake Michigan beaches. Kluber && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... There are no aviation concerns in the TAF period. Northeasterly winds will prevail with gustiness near 20kt during daylight hours. Occasional plumes of upper-level smoke will continue streaming overhead warranting a continuation of FEW250. Borchardt && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Beach Hazards Statement...ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104 until 4 AM Thursday. IN...Beach Hazards Statement...INZ001-INZ002 until 4 AM Thursday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters until 4 AM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
936 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region through late week. An area of low pressure will gradually weaken off the New England Coast as high pressure slowly builds in from the Ohio River Valley Friday into Saturday. Rain chances return from the Great Lakes SUnday and Monday as an additional wave of low pressure and front approaches the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Greater instability resides from central Virginia to southern Maryland this evening per mesoanalysis and 00Z WAL sounding. A few showers and storms have developed in the Charlottesville vicinity and will spread eastward into the night. Guidance indicates instability may increase a bit across southern Maryland through the night while a disturbance aloft approaches and low level convergence shifts northward. Therefore a few storms may linger or develop even toward dawn in this area. RAP and HRRR smoke models continue to show thicker smoke to our northeast may spill southward after midnight toward the aforementioned convergence zone. It`s uncertain how this will play out and where smoke might spread, but visibility and air quality could be pretty poor to start the day, especially if the smoke becomes trapped under the nocturnal inversion. Please refer to or local environmental agencies for the latest air quality information. Overnight lows are forecast in the mid to upper 40s west of the Blue Ridge and 50s to near 60 to the east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The upper low situated off to our north will continue to spiral and slowly retrograde westward over NY/New England tomorrow, before finally starting to make some eastward progress Friday afternoon into Friday night. A mix of sun and clouds is expected tomorrow, with most locations remaining dry. A few showers may develop across western MD or the WV panhandle during the afternoon, and in far southern MD, but most locations should remain dry. Additional surges of smoke are expected over the next couple of days as north to northwest winds continue dragging smoke south from eastern Canada. The smoke is expected to be thick at times, with very bad air quality over the region. A disturbance will swing through the base of the broad East Coast upper low on Friday, bringing better chances for afternoon showers, and potentially even a rumble of thunder or two. Afternoon highs each day are forecast to be in the 70s for most, with 60s in the mountains. Poor air quality and widespread haze continue through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Brief high pressure will build over the region Saturday with showers and thunderstorm chances increasing early next week. Synoptically, we begin to flip the script on the upper level pattern. The upper level low off the coast of northern New England will continue to move further out into the northern Atlantic while shortwave ridging/high pressure build in from the Ohio River Valley. Unfortunately the shortwave ridging/high pressure will be short lived with another upper level trough closing off and dipping south into the region Sunday and Monday. With that said expect the flow to change from the northwest Saturday to west and southwest Sunday and MOnday before the next front pushes through. This will clean the Canadian wildfire smoke out of the low and mid levels of atmosphere while allowing warmer temperatures and more moisture to build in. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s Saturday with mid to upper 80s and low 90s Sunday. Showers and thunderstorm chances will also increase during the latter half of the weekend into early next week as the cutoff low sinks south and it`s resultant front pushes toward the region. 12z guidance currently progs the front for passage during the Monday and Monday night timeframe with moisture likely to linger in the form of diurnal chances midweek as a dirty area of high pressure builds in. At this time, the rainfall looks more beneficial than problematic due to the dry antecedent conditions.The risk of severe wx also looks minimal due to weak shear profiles and moist adiabatic profiles. Temperatures will drop Monday behind the frontal passage, before trending warmer towards the middle of the week as rain chances decrease. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few showers may remain in the vicinity of CHO through 02-03Z. Widespread haze and smoke impacts are expected to continue through at least Friday. Visibility has generally been steady or even improving slightly early this evening. However, a large wedge of smoke over eastern PA/NJ is expected to push south and west into our area this evening and overnight. This is expected to reduce visibility to IFR conditions, around 1-2SM, although there is less confidence that thicker near-surface smoke will reach CHO. It is possible that smoke/haze linger for much of the day tomorrow, then some improvement toward evening. Current smoke forecasts indicate some lower visibilities may return late Thursday night, but these models generally become less reliable farther into the future. The next disturbance may bring some improvement, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms, on Friday. VFR conditions are expected Saturday into Sunday as high pressure briefly builds into the region. Sub-VFR conditions likely return Late Sunday into MOnday as an area of low pressure and cold front push through the region. These conditions may linger into midweek with diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances. && .MARINE... Southerly channeling is expected to develop over the southern Chesapeake and Lower Tidal Potomac tonight, and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for those waters. A few thunderstorms may also develop near southern Maryland later tonight and into Thursday afternoon. Overall light winds expected Thursday into Friday though. SCA conditions likely Sunday night into Monday. T-storms likely on Monday. SCA conditions likely Sunday night into Monday as a cold front approaches the waters. T-storms are likely with the front Monday afternoon into Monday night. SCA west to southwest winds likely linger into midweek. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Sensitive tide locations will reach Action Stage during the highest diurnal tide over the next couple of days. Tidal anomalies should remain low, and no flooding is currently forecast. However, sensitive locations like Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront will be close. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ533-534- 537-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EST NEAR TERM...ADS SHORT TERM...KRR LONG TERM...CS/EE AVIATION...ADS/KRR/EST MARINE...ADS/KRR/EST TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR/ADS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1049 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure drifts over northern New England overnight and then weakens in place on Thursday. A series of disturbances will move through the area Thursday and Friday, with high pressure building in thereafter through the weekend. A frontal system then tracks east from the Great Lakes and potentially impacts the area early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Widespread smoke continues to be the main concern heading into tonight. Thick smoke as seen on multiple GOES-16 channels over the area is gradually sinking south and east. Decreased visibilities continue to be observed at ASOS sites and other reporting stations HRRR low level smoke fields are showing this higher concentration remaining over much of our area into the late evening. Low visibilities, poor air quality, and the smell of smoke can be expected. Some improvement is possible, particularly across southeastern CT into the overnight, due to the smoke getting pushed southward with the closed upper low retrograding slowly west over northern New England. Otherwise, anomalous upper low will retrograde over northern New England tonight. The associated surface low pressure will start weakening as it settles over the New England coast. Removed the mention of showers in SE CT, where the smoke is helping to stabilize conditions. While a stray sprinkle is still possible, this appears unlikely at this point. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s inland, to the upper 50s across the NYC metro. This is slightly below normal with some cooler air wrapping around behind the low and into the areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper low becomes nearly stationary across Thursday into Thursday night as the flow pattern remains blocked and highly amplified. The cold pocket aloft associated with the upper low and disturbances rotating around it will combine with weak after surface trough to develop scattered showers Thursday afternoon. The CAMs indicate limited CAPE, but enough to warrant a slight chance mention of thunder across the interior. The CSU machine learning severe probabilities are less than 5 percent. While severe weather is not anticipated, the colder air aloft could help develop a few showers with small hail. The probability of precip is lower towards the coast based on the latest model trends. Clouds will also become more prevalent with the placement of the upper flow and moisture being wrapped around the large upper vortex. This will result in temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. HRRR smoke fields indicate potential for some smoke to make it to the surface, but at lower concentrations compared to Wednesday. Will mention patchy smoke for now during the day with potential of haze. Confidence is not high enough to mention a more widespread smoke at this time. Any afternoon/evening showers and isolated storms diminish with loss of daytime heating Thursday evening. Kept haze in the forecast Thursday night with lows falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s inland and middle to upper 50s near the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper trough axis shifts southeast and across the area on Friday, with a weak surface trough nearby. This will result in increasing chances of showers, especially by the afternoon and evening hours. Airmass is fairly stable but there could be isolated thunderstorms, especially over the interior. SPC currently has a general thunder outlined for the area, which seems reasonable. The scattered showers may persist into the overnight or early Saturday morning before drying out. Overall, rainfall amounts look to be light, with less than a quarter inch outside convective maxima. Clouds will also become more prevalent with the placement of the upper flow and moisture being wrapped around the large upper vortex into the weekend. Conditions largely dry out though for coastal areas this weekend as weak surface high pressure passes to the south. The exception will be across the interior during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday, where diurnal convection is possible with the cool upper low nearby. A shortwave swings south into the Great Lakes early next week, with a surface low developing and potentially impacting the region late Monday into Tuesday with a period of rain. The surface low and cold front impacts the area later Monday into Tuesday with chances for showers and thunderstorms once again, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Friday will be seasonably cool for June, as the region lies underneath the upper low. A gradual warmup begins by Saturday as the trough exits and heights begin to rise, with highs getting into the upper 70s and lower 80s for much of the region away from the immediate shoreline. Largely followed blended national guidance for this update. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Thick smoke remains over the entire region with MVFR to IFR conditions. While there is no cloud deck, vertical visibilities are extremely limited due to surface obscuration of the sky from smoke. This will likely continue into early this evening. Though the smoke likely thins somewhat later this evening and tonight, some restriction in visibility remains likely, and have continued with MVFR visibilities at this time. There is uncertainty as to the timing and how much visibilities improve this evening and tonight. Smoke and haze remain into tomorrow, however, there is high uncertainty as to restrictions to visibilities and vertical visibilities in smoke, with significant uncertainty in the concentration and density of the smoke. Showers, with an isolated thunderstorm, are possible late Thursday afternoon for inland terminals. There are timing uncertainties with the showers, however, latest guidance indicating a later timing and delayed chances to late afternoon into the evening. NW winds diminish and become more northerly in the NYC area, and light and variable at the outlying terminals. Winds then become NW Thursday morning with a sea breeze developing early in the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in the timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke. Timing of the sea breeze at KJFK may be an hour earlier than forecast. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday night through Friday: Mainly VFR. FU/HZ likely reduce visibilities to MVFR Thursday. Chance of afternoon and early evening showers both days. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or tsra, mainly for northern terminals. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at night in shra. Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon and evening with showers possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for all the forecast waters for the reduced visibilities in smoke. Otherwise, winds and seas remain below SCA levels through this weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place. SCA conditions possibly return late Monday or Tuesday with a frontal system impacting the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. That being the case, it`s possible for the high tide cycles the next few nights to get close to minor coastal flood benchmarks across the south shore back bays of Nassau. There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches Thursday and Friday due to a diminishing swell and weak winds. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DR/DS NEAR TERM...DR/DS/MET SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...MET MARINE...DR/DS/MET HYDROLOGY...DR/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
931 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will continue to drift around New England through the end of the week. A couple of troughs rotating around that low will result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, along with continued smoky and hazy conditions. High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather for the weekend, followed by low pressure approaching from the west later Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... The worst of the smoke plume has settled over southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. Visibilities are now generally 1 to 2 miles across the region. The story of the near term continues to be the wildfire smoke and associated air quality effects on the region. A closed upper low associated will remain to the northeast through tonight. The upper level and surface low will retrograde back to the west across New England tonight and becoming vertically stacked overnight. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland for very poor air quality as a result of the high concentration of near surface smoke. Sensitive populations should avoid prolonged periods outdoors and take appropriate precautions. Looking at the latest RAP/HRRR near surface smoke products, not much relief is depicted through the overnight hours. Near surface smoke densities are progged to remain quite high into Thursday morning. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s. For Thursday, shortwave impulses will round the upper low as it pinwheels across New England and the surface low will throw several troughs across the area. A more potent shortwave will slide across Virginia in the afternoon and, coupled with the developing sea breeze boundary, hi-res guidance indicates that southern New Jersey and Delaware will be the primary focus for convective development. Forecast soundings do depict some instability (500-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and 30-40 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. With limited mid-level moisture, dry air entrainment may limit the extent of convective development, but with the surface and upper level forcing, expect a few organized showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance) in the early afternoon. Elsewhere, as the low retrogrades west, some showers may (20-30%) also push into the Poconos and Lehigh Valley in the afternoon. Highs should reach the mid to upper 70s, though depending on cloud and smoke coverage, high temperatures may hold a few degrees lower than currently forecast. With the loss of daytime heating, showers and thunderstorms should wane in the evening. Smoke concentrations may begin to decrease some Thursday afternoon afternoon as upper level flow slowly backs more westerly. Will continue to monitor RAP/HRRR smoke products into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An upper-level low centered over New England will continue to drift slowly back toward the west, with troughs rotating around that into our area from the north and northwest. Moisture, particularly in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere will increase, resulting in a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon compared to Thursday. Precipitable water values will only creep toward an inch on Friday, with dewpoints rising into the low to mid 50s, while the lower atmosphere may struggle to moisten up. Winds aloft between the LCL and EL (cloud layer) look quite weak, maybe around 10 kt, so the slow movement of any thunderstorms that do develop Friday afternoon may allow for at least some rainfall potential, but hesitate to say that much more than a tenth to a quarter-inch should be expected. As we draw closer and gain some guidance from high-resolution models, confidence may increase in the potential for some rainfall on Friday. Additionally, the HRRR and RAP suggest that the steering flow over the wildfires in Quebec may direct smoke more toward the Great Lakes, thus bringing less `new smoke` into our area. That said, it is likely that some haze and degraded air quality will continue until we see more of a shift in winds over our region to the southwest, or more widespread rain. Meanwhile, expect generally more clouds than sun on Friday, along with cooler high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper-level low pressure will finally begin to shift to the east of New England while upstream ridging pushes in. That along with broad, weak high pressure at the surface should result in more stable conditions with a drier airmass limiting the threat for any showers and thunderstorms. Only kept some slight chances near the Poconos and far northern NJ during the afternoons over the weekend, but even that is probably a stretch, with dry weather expected for the vast majority of our region. Temperatures will likely warm up, possibly into the mid and upper-80s by Sunday, as winds become more southwesterly. That shift will also occur aloft, which should help steer leftover smoke away from our region. If that doesn`t completely clear out the smoke, an upper-level low dropping across the Great Lakes is projected to spark a surface low and trailing cold front that may push toward the mid-Atlantic later Monday or Monday night. Most model guidance suggest that will present our next best chance for widespread rainfall. Expect slightly lower temperatures with a cooler and drier airmass to follow with weak high pressure around Tuesday and Wednesday, though the exact timing of that comes with less certainty due to a more progressive flow across the United States next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight (00Z through 12Z)...IFR VSBY in smoke and haze, improving to MVFR later tonight. MVFR CIGs are as a result of smoke, and those CIGs should lift later tonight as well. N-NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming LGT/VRB. Low confidence the exact timing of any restrictions in haze/smoke. Thursday (12Z through 00Z)...Lingering IFR/MVFR VSBY in the morning should improve to MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. Isolated SHRA may affect the I-95 terminals, and scattered SHRA and possible TSRA may affect KRDG/KABE/KMIV/KACY in the afternoon. N winds 5 to 7 kt in the morning, becoming W around 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Sea breezes at KACY/KMIV will turn winds S 5 to 10 kt. Sea breeze may affect KILG/KPHL. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday...Prevailing VFR. 40-60% chance for showers/thunderstorms, peaking in the afternoon/evening. The greatest chances are for the Lehigh Valley and I-95 terminals. These may cause temporary visibility restrictions. Northwest winds around 10 kts decreasing to 5-10 kts at night. High confidence on prevailing VFR, low confidence on any precip related restrictions. Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds decrease to around 5 knots at night. Moderate confidence. Sunday...VFR. Winds gradually become more southerly through the day around 10 kts. Moderate confidence. Monday...VFR possibly lowering to MVFR late in the day. Rain may arrive late in the day or at night with lowering ceilings and visibility. Southerly winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts over 20 kt possible. Low confidence. && .MARINE... Dense smoke had spread southward and now encompasses all New Jersey ocean waters. Will go ahead and expand the Marine Dense Smoke Advisory to include all of New Jersey ocean waters, and will run that and the previous Advisory until 1 am. Latest guidance indicates visibilities could be lower through midnight or so. Otherwise, no marine headlines expected for wind or seas. Wind becoming northerly tonight 5-10 knots before increasing to around 10 knots Thursday afternoon. A sea breeze will develop in the afternoon and turn winds southeasterly. Seas 2-3 feet. Outlook... Friday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally south-southwest 5-10 kt. Seas of 1 to 3 feet. Sunday and Monday...SCA conditions possible. Winds SSE 10-20 kt, possibly gusting to 25 kt by Monday. Seas building to 3-5 ft. Rip Currents... Thursday...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. NW winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn S around midday due to afternoon sea breezes. Breaking waves 3 to 4 ft with a 5 to 7 second easterly swell. Friday...There is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. E winds 5 to 10 mph in the morning will turn S around midday due to afternoon sea breezes. Breaking waves 3 to 4 ft with a 5 to 7 second southeasterly swell. && .FIRE WEATHER... For Thursday, forecast relative humidity values will fall to around 25-30% across the area, though winds will hold around 10 mph. Some scattered showers are possible across southern New Jersey and Delmarva, though widespread precipitation is not expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are continuing to decrease as we move away from the full moon though the light ocean swell somewhat onshore as it becomes more northerly. As a result for tonight, only spotty minor coastal flooding is expected along the Atlantic Ocean coasts as well as tidal tributaries and back bays in Cape May County in New Jersey and Sussex County in Delaware where the swell is expected to be most onshore/strongest. Further coastal flooding is not expected elsewhere. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>453. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dodd NEAR TERM...Brudy/MPS SHORT TERM...AKL/Dodd LONG TERM...AKL/Dodd AVIATION...Brudy/Dodd/MPS MARINE...Brudy/Dodd/MPS FIRE WEATHER... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
110 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. A low pressure system is situated over southern California today. By Thursday, this low pressure system will be located over southern Nevada. This low has been responsible for the unsettled weather over the last couple of days and as it slowly moves east will continue the scattered showers and thunderstorms. Peak time for storms will remain in the afternoon and evening when heating is at a maximum. Precipitable water values remain high, close to an inch Today and Thursday. So heavy rain remains likely in thunderstorms. Storm motion is expected to be 20 to 25 mph however. So flooding from a single storm is unlikely. HOWEVER, if we see a cluster of storms or a training situation develop then flooding potential increases substantially. Shear is also much better today with 30 to 40 kts over most of the area. This means the potential for stronger updrafts exists allowing for stronger storms with higher potential for large hail and damaging winds. An area of rain is expected to arrive from Wyoming late tonight and early Thursday morning which could limit thunderstorm development for a time tomorrow. However, the 3km NAM and the HRRR show redevelopment across the South Hills and Southeast Highlands by early afternoon and then lift these storms into the Snake Plain and Magic Valley by late afternoon. Effective shear is still around 30 kts Thursday afternoon, which may be just strong enough to support stronger updrafts allowing for marginally severe storms. 13 .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday. By Friday, the low will weaken a bit as it continues to move north, but still bring sufficient troughing to the area to continue the pattern of showers and storms. This will push the main stream of moisture a bit farther to our north which will keep our area out of the WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for Friday and Saturday, at least. By Sunday morning, the next low will already be taking the previous low`s old place in southern California. It will then work its way northeast up through Utah and Colorado/Wyoming Monday and Tuesday before exiting onto the Plains midweek. Rain and storms will continue for Monday and Tuesday, but it looks like we could see a little bit of a break Wednesday and Thursday as our general flow becomes not quite zonal, but more northwesterly. The ECMWF and GFS disagree on Wednesday, but both currently show a drier Thursday. AMM && .AVIATION...18Z Wednesday to 18Z Thursday. With no major changes to our current pattern, one can surmise that we will see showers and storms once again today (and, spoiler alert, on Thursday, too). Generally VFR conditions are expected outside of afternoon/evening rain and storms across the area. Activity will be possible at all sites today. Once again, there is the potential for brief drops in VIS/CIGs to MVFR/IFR conditions when a storm passes over a terminal. The biggest threats with storms will be strong wind gusts and hail. The HRRR 10m Gust Potential is a bit lower today, showing gusts up to 40kts, but with a Marginal Risk for the entire area from the SPC severe gusts can`t be ruled out. CAMs are hinting at rain already early Thursday morning, generally in a line north of PIH before more showers and storms lift up out of the south on Thursday afternoon. AMM && .FIRE WEATHER...Active thunderstorm pattern continues over East Idaho through the end of the week. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with gusts over 55 mph all of East Idaho fire districts. Small hail and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. The bulk of the thunderstorm activity should occur between noon and 9pm but there is a small chance of storms developing earlier as well as continuing later. Similar conditions exist for the rest of the week. DMH && .HYDROLOGY...Flooding continues on multiple rivers and creeks across central and eastern Idaho, including the Big Wood at Hailey, the Big Lost at Howell Ranch, Antelope Creek north of Arco, the Portneuf river at Pocatello and Topaz, the Bear River at the Wyoming border, and the Henrys Fork near Rexburg. All of these locations look to remain in flood stage (or flirting with the low end of minor flood) this coming week except the Henrys Fork at Rexburg which has fallen below flood stage. A flood advisory continues there for now as we monitor rainfall and any rises in the river later this week to see if it reaches flood stage once again. The Teton River is another river that could reach flood stage depending upon snowmelt and rainfall over the next couple of days. 13 && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
839 PM PDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Updated Aviation discussion .SYNOPSIS...Aside from periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms in portions of the Cascades over the next few days, the forecast remains dry across all of northwest OR and southwest WA. Expect more seasonable temperatures late this week as onshore flow strengthens. Warming up again Sunday into Monday as a shortwave ridge moves into the area. && .SHORT TERM...Wednesday evening through Friday night...Temperatures Wednesday evening are shaping up to be even cooler than expected as ongoing high clouds have resulted in observed temperatures that are a solid five to ten degrees below what most model guidance is suggesting. The exception to this is with the latest iteration of the HRRR and the HiResW-ARW, as both of these models are handling current temperatures well. Therefore, decided to utilize a mix of both models for temperatures the rest of today (which look to be topping out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees). There has also been minimal convection over the Cascades thus far today, however there is still a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms over the Lane County Cascades this evening according to the NBM. This seems reasonable as current radar and satellite observations do show a couple thunderstorms beginning to develop between Crescent and Paisley moving slowly northwestward towards the Waldo Lake area. Similar to last night, models continue to suggest another southwest marine push will occur Wednesday night. Expect low clouds to fill in along the coast and into the coast range valleys, potentially pushing into the Eugene area towards sunrise (30-50% chance according to the HREF probability of cloud ceilings below 3000 ft). The rest of the Willamette Valley should be mostly clear aside from passing high clouds. Models and their ensembles continue to suggest low-level onshore flow will strengthen Thursday into Friday. This will bring increasing cloud cover Thursday night into Friday morning along with relatively cooler temperatures, albeit still a bit above normal for this time of year (climatological average high temperatures are in the lower 60s at the coast and lower 70s inland). Although the deterministic NBM depicts inland highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday and mid 70s on Friday, there is the potential for noticeably cooler temperatures depending on how long morning cloud cover lasts. The NBM 1D Viewer highlights this uncertainty well as the temperature spread ranges from mid 70s to upper 80s on Thursday and upper 60s to mid 80s on Friday (10th to 90th percentile). Ensemble guidance from the CMC is noticeably cooler than the GEFS/EPS. Given the uncertainty involved with cloud cover, decided to go with the deterministic NBM for now. Forecast confidence is highest at the coast where highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are likely both days. -TK .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday night...Model guidance is in good agreement on Saturday when it comes to the large scale pattern. This is highlighted well by the WPC`s cluster analysis for 500 mb heights and anomalies as all four clusters depict a cut-off low over California with very little flow at all over the Pacific Northwest. It appears any convection associated with the aforementioned low will occur east of the Cascade crest at this time, keeping northwest OR and southwest WA dry with slightly above normal temperatures. Saturday also looks a bit breezy in the afternoon and evening with northwest winds increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. The GEFS/EPS/CMC ensemble mean continue to show a transient shortwave ridge passing over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and Monday, which will bring warmer temperatures to the area again. However, confidence remains rather low in regards to exact high temperatures. Although the deterministic NBM suggests highs will be in the 80s inland and 60s at the coast, there is still a large degree of model spread. In fact, the NBM 10th to 90th percentile for high temperatures ranges from the 70s to 90s on both days at this time. The outcome will ultimately come down to cloud cover conditions as low-level onshore flow will be strengthening at the same time as the upper ridge moving in, which may become strong enough for at least some marine stratus to push into the Willamette Valley during the early morning hours. That being said, most guidance is currently favoring a lack of inland cloud cover and warmer temperatures with highs somewhere in the 80s inland and in the 60s at the coast. -TK && .AVIATION...An upper level low over the Great Basin will maintain southeast flow aloft for much of the night. Thunderstorm activity across the Lane and Linn County Cascades are diminishing and will continue to do so into the night. An upper level front will advance towards the area into Thursday. Near the surface a deepening of the marine layer with greater onshore flow will increase stratus intrusion beyond the coast and into the valley. Latest guidance suggests around a 50-60% chance of MVFR stratus into the southern Willamette Valley after 12z Thu, while only a 10-20% chance of the stratus making it to terminals across the central and northern parts of the Valley. For detailed Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR is expected to prevail through tonight. There is a 10-20% chance of MVFR cigs between 08-12z Thu. Light winds becoming W-NW. -BMuhlestein/DH && .MARINE...Weak high pressure persists offshore through Friday, but the southerly wind reversal will remain fairly persistent across the coastal waters. This will lead to fairly benign conditions through at least Friday morning, including south to southwest winds up to 10-15 kt, and seas around 4 to 6 ft this afternoon subsiding to around 2 to 4 ft on Thursday. High pressure strengthens offshore late Friday into the weekend. Winds shift back to the north-northwest and increase over the weekend. Conditions will likely deteriorate to Small Craft advisory levels by Saturday afternoon/evening. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && && $$ Interact with us via social media:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1034 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Line of thunderstorms producing severe weather from Midland to Lubbock was moving quickly east at 10 PM CDT. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances over the Big Country and N. Concho Valley after midnight. Also added some storms possibly severe, although the HRRR and NAM models do weaken the complex as it moves east. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Another round of isolated to scattered (around a 20% chance) of thunderstorms remains a possibility across the region on Saturday. A minor disturbance aloft should be potent enough to generate this activity. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern with this activity, however, the odds will be low. Beyond this weekend, a high pressure continues to gradually build across the region for next week. Look for a little taste of summer as the triple digits make a return across the area. This ridge will also act to limit our rain chances into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. However, there is a line of thunderstorms moving east toward the KABI terminal as of 1030 PM, and will likely provide at least VCTS at KABI later tonight, so will keep the mention of storms going there. Less confident for terminals to the south, but there are isolated to scattered storms developing to the west of KSJT, and high resolution models also continue to predict additional activity developing later tonight into tomorrow morning for our southern terminals, so will likely keep some mention of VCTS or TSRA going for these southern sites. Otherwise, winds outside of thunderstorm gusts will remain less than 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 64 89 66 96 / 40 10 0 0 San Angelo 64 94 68 101 / 30 10 0 0 Junction 65 94 67 99 / 20 20 0 0 Brownwood 65 91 65 98 / 30 20 0 0 Sweetwater 64 91 67 97 / 50 10 0 0 Ozona 64 92 68 98 / 30 10 0 0 Brady 65 90 67 97 / 20 20 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
251 PM PDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS...A closed area of low pressure will slowly move across southeastern California and southern Nevada today and Thursday, which will produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Another system will follow a similar track late this weekend into early next week, which will result in a prolonged period of well- below normal temperatures and unsettled weather. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Thursday. A closed area of low pressure will move east-northeastward through our forecast area today. A rain band pushed through Inyo and San Bernardino counties this morning. This band continues to push through Clark and southern Nye counties late-morning. In general, rain observed with this band has been light. National Park Service in Death Valley observed 0.08" this morning, which was the highest total observed in southeastern California. Otherwise, amounts across southwestern Nevada range from 0.01 to 0.03 inches in the valleys from this rain band, with higher amounts in the Spring Mountains. As of 11:15am, a gauge in the Spring Mountains (Harris Springs) measured 0.24 inches. Through the afternoon, the center of the low will move into Inyo County, resulting in convective activity across Inyo, Esmeralda, southern Nye, and western Clark counties. Death Valley National Park will be of particular concern today due to their vulnerability to flash flooding and their proximity to the center of the low. Surface-based CAPE values will range from 100-250 J/kg according to the HREF, though all-day cloud cover could prohibit much in the way of surface heating. That said, forecast HRRR soundings show upward of 1 inch of PWAT in Death Valley. Coupled with dynamic forcing and orographic lift, thunderstorm activity in the Coso and Panamint ranges could put down between 0.50 and 1.00 inches of rain. In fact, a brief strip of clear skies in southern Inyo County over the last hour has lead to convective initiation over the Coso Range (located southeast of Olancha). No lightning has been observed yet, but 49 dBZ observed via KEYX, with -35C cloud top temperatures. In addition to flash flooding, inverted-V forecast soundings in Inyo and southern Nye counties indicate that gusty winds in excess of 40 mph from the direction of stronger cells is likely. DCAPE values could approach 1000 J/kg once convective temperatures are met, so thunderstorm-related wind gusts at or above 50 mph cannot be ruled out. The center of the low will weaken and turn northward tonight into Thursday morning, resulting in shower and isolated thunderstorm chances across the southern Great Basin Thursday afternoon. Forecast precipitation totals will be lower than today, with most areas across northern Inyo, Esmeralda, southern Nye, and Lincoln counties receiving less than 0.05 inches (up to 0.10 inches in the higher terrain). Skies will clear across the Mojave Desert on Thursday, allowing afternoon temperatures to increase to 3-6 degrees warmer than today. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday. Ridging will be existent, but brief, going into the weekend, resulting in afternoon temperatures increasing 2-4 degrees each day Friday and Saturday. Through the day on Saturday, troughing off the southern California coast will strengthen into a closed low before pushing inland on Sunday. The ECMWF ensemble means indicate a persistent moisture presence in the western Mojave Desert through the weekend as a result, with PWAT values between 0.75 and 1.00 inches. The dynamic lift associated with the low pressure center will return shower and thunderstorm chances to the region Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Impacts will include light-to-moderate rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning, localized flash flooding, and gusty outflow winds. Details will become more clear as we get closer. This unsettled regime continues into the extended forecast period as dry, southwesterly flow sets up aloft. Shortwave progression is common along this flow, which could return afternoon gusty winds and PoPs. Temperatures remain below-average through the forecast period. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds are still expected to increase out a south-southwest direction this afternoon with gusts to around 20kts. VCSH continues to be included in the TAF for ongoing shower development. While TS cannot be ruled out, confidence remains too low to include in the TAF. If stronger cells do form, outflow winds with southerly to westerly components may affect the field during the late afternoon or early evening. Gusts should end after sunset with winds generally under 10kts overnight into Thursday morning. VFR cigs will prevail with SCT-BKN skies AOA 10kft expected through the TAF period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are likely across the western Mojave Desert, Sierra, and higher elevations of southern Nevada through sunset. KDAG and KBIH are the most likely sites to see direct impacts from TS activity. South to southwest winds gusting over 20kts are expected to continue or develop at most TAF sites, with KEED and KIFP experiencing the highest winds. Winds will diminish by late evening, becoming less than 10kts at all sites. Outside of shower activity, cigs will prevail with SCT-BKN skies AOA 10kft through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Varian AVIATION...Salmen For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter