Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
919 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
As post sunset continues, most of the convection will end before
midnight across the CWA. Overnight lows look fine and only minor
mods have been implemented this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Once again, we have a few afternoon showers and storms across the
area within steep low-level lapse rates and weak instability,
although basically no shear to speak of. RAP shows MLCAPE perhaps
reaching 1000 J/KG this afternoon over the Coteau region, while also
keeping DCAPE below 1000 J/KG. So, like the past several days, maybe
some of these "stronger" cores put down a weak/modest outflow, but
not expecting much more than that other than some very small hail
potentially.
For tonight, most of the diurnally driven convection will wane, but
CAMs do suggest potential for continued activity along the weak
cool/stationary front that will drift/backdoor from the east
overnight. This front will be a focus for another chance for showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A bit better instability
looks to set up tomorrow with 1000-1500 J/KG developing across the
eastern CWA, with some moisture pooling (low 60s dewpoints)
near/along the surface boundary. Shear remains weak once again, but
at least generally exists with perhaps around 20 to maybe 25 knots 0-
6km bulk shear across the eastern CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
No notable changes showing up in model output for the extended
forecast period, compared to 24 hours ago.
Still expecting the upper level ridge over the region to build back
to the west some Thursday and Thursday night, with weak
northwesterly flow setting up over the CWA on Friday. There is
supposed to be a shortwave aloft riding southeastward through this
flow pattern Friday into Friday night, with perhaps another upper
wave diving south through the region on Saturday. The upper ridge is
forecast to shift back over the region heading into early next week.
During the day on Thursday, the "cold front" that has backed its way
westward into the CWA will continue to weaken, but could be aiding
afternoon convective development as a source of weak low-level
forcing, probably over the western half or western third of the CWA.
Lately, with the lack of forcing/lift, it really hasn`t taken much
to get afternoon, heat-of-the-day showers and thunderstorms to
develop. Thursday afternoon is probably no different.
On Friday, the initial mid-level shortwave set to move southeastward
into the region, is still expected to drop a cold front down through
the CWA during the day. Timing-wise, it looks as though the front
passes through the majority of the CWA prior to peak-heating, so the
potential for it to force convection is not the best. But, between
the front`s forcing and the mid-level wave`s lift, certainly cannot
rule some spotty shower activity during the first half of the day
Friday. Also, right now, it`s possible there could actually be
~30kts of deep layer shear available mainly across the eastern half
of forecast zones for the front to work with as it sweeps southward
through the CWA. Precipitation chances on Saturday with a secondary
upper wave in north-northwesterly flow may be a bit tougher to come
by, with a more stable/drier airmass establishing over the CWA. Will
have to monitor PoPs trends closely for Saturday.
Again, behind the front, low level CAA and dry air advection should
be at a premium from whenever on Friday (post-frontal) through
Saturday, while surface high pressure sets up over the CWA Saturday
and Sunday. Thinking Saturday and Sunday (and probably Monday as
well) should be dry, comfortable early summer days coming up. As the
ridge aloft builds back over the CWA next week, a low level return
flow/WAA pressure pattern should take hold.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight regionwide.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1047 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke will persist with some small improvement to visibility
overnight. However, another plume of denser smoke is expected to
arrive from Canada Wednesday. A few spotty showers can`t be
ruled out across parts of central NY Wednesday afternoon and
evening, but there is a better chance for showers Thursday and
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1040 PM Update...
The denser smoke may abate slightly overnight into early
Wednesday morning. However the latest HRRR smoke guidance brings
another denser/thicker smoke plume north to south through the
area starting around or just after daybreak for CNY, then by
late morning in NE PA. This high concentration of smoke is
modeled to remain over the region through at least the evening
hours on Wednesday. With the HRRR showing increasing near
surface smoke, visibility and air quality is likely to be
impacted once again...very similarly to what we saw today (Tuesday).
Issued and SPS to cover this extensive smoke and haze potential.
615 PM Update...
Made some adjustments to increase PoPs and chances for thunder
across Oneida & Otsego counties as a round of thunderstorms
pivots through this area into the evening hours. Otherwise,
minor tweaks to the haze/smoke forecast through the day on
Wednesday. The smoke looks to be widespread and thick again most
of, if not the whole day on Wednesday areawide. Therefore,
blended in some of the NBM 25th percentile for the forecast
high temperatures, which nudged it down another degree or so.
330 PM Update...
Smoke remains widespread across the region. The area of denser
smoke, and lower visibilities, has recently pushed into the
Scranton/WB area. Satellite imagery shows something of a
boundary passing through the Thruway corridor, with somewhat
thinner smoke to its north. This may bring some improvement to
Central NY over the next few hours.
The HRRR suggests surface smoke will become thinner overnight,
but another plume of dense smoke will push into the area
tomorrow, somewhat favoring the western half of the area. This
all depends on fire behavior in Canada, and satellite imagery
shows dozens of plumes putting up plenty of smoke this
afternoon, with gusty winds and very dry conditions favorable
for extreme fire behavior. In other words, there`s not much
reason to disagree with the HRRR near-surface smoke fields.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have mainly been over eastern
NY this afternoon, but there`s still a slight chance for a pop-
up storm over the Catskills/Poconos, and Susquehanna headwaters
regions through early evening.
An upper low over the Maritimes will retrograde west towards
Maine overnight, keeping the north winds in place through
tomorrow. Additional isolated showers will be possible tomorrow
afternoon, mainly across northern areas of the CWA.
Max Temperature forecasts were a bust for today, thanks to the
smoke being so dense. Pulled temps down a few degrees for
tomorrow, especially near and west of I-81 where the smoke is
expected to be most dense.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3:30 PM Update...
The aforementioned upper-level low pressure area will continue
to be a main feature for the CWA Thursday through Friday night,
keeping a cool, north-northwesterly flow in place. With the flow
out of the north, smoke from the Canadian wildfires may still
be noticeable. The upper low will keep conditions unsettled with
spotty showers through Friday with most of the activity during
the afternoon and evening hours. Instability is pretty limited,
500 J/KG or less, so any thunderstorm looks to be isolated. As
mentioned earlier this morning, the NBM seems to be loading in
on the high side for PoPs through Friday evening, so they have
been lowered a bit. Highs each afternoon will be mainly in the
60s, and overnight lows falling back into the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3:30 PM Update...
The upper low will lift off to the northeast during the day Saturday
and weak ridging will build in briefly. There can still be a stray
shower Saturday as the low pulls away, especially over eastern parts
of the CWA. Afternoon high temperatures will start to moderate,
making a returning to the 70s. Sunday into Monday an upper-level low
will drop southward over the Great Lakes region along with a
developing surface low. This feature will slowly push eastward
through early next week, and despite some differences in model
timing and rain intensity, there will be the chance for showers
through Sunday through Tuesday along with a spotty thunderstorm. As
seen in the short term, PoPs were lowered about during this period.
High temperatures through the first half of the week will be mostly
in the 70s. Overnight lows will not be quite as chilly in the
50s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
740 pm update...
Smoke from wildfires in Ontario and Quebec will continue to
affect the region through the next 24 hours. Most sites have IFR
vsbys now which should slowly improve tonight to MVFR and
possibly VFR late tonight. Another batch of smoke will move in
Wednesday morning with at least MVFR vsbys. SYR, ITH, ELM have
the best chance of afternoon IFR vsbys.
Ceilings have improved to VFR which should continue through
Wednesday. SYR/RME will have the most clouds and the lowest.
Clearing should occur tonight for south central NY and AVP.
NW winds at 5 to 10 kts will become light and variable this
evening and continue until sunrise. Wednesday late morning into
evening winds will be northwest at 10 kts with gusts to 20.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Friday...Mostly VFR; Chance for showers
each day, which may lead to brief restrictions.
Saturday...VFR conditions expected.
Sunday...possible restrictions in rain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning is in effect for Northeast Pennsylvania
through 8 PM today, due to combination of low relative
humidity, gusty winds, and even possible isolated dry
thunderstorms. Humidity will not reach critical levels for the
Leatherstocking Fire Weather Zone in New York, yet conditions
will still be fire weather sensitive overall where fuels are
very dry, considering gusty northwest wind and still fairly low
humidity. Looking ahead, on Wednesday, relative humidity values
look slightly higher along with slightly lower winds. However,
conditions remain dry.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MJM/MPH
SHORT TERM...DK/MPH
LONG TERM...DK/MPH
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1016 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A sprawling upper-level low will keep cooler and showery
conditions in place through the end of the work week. A gradual
warming trend is expected going into the weekend, and diurnal
showers are possible on most days this week. Smoke from
wildfires to our north remains a concern, and Air Quality Alerts
remain in place for portions of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1009 PM EDT Tuesday...No changes were needed with this
update. Scattered/numerous showers continue across the region,
with the most consistent activity having funneled down the
Champlain Valley over the past couple of hours. Coverage should
wane a bit overnight, with showers lingering longest across
northeast VT, closest to the upper low and the influx of
moisture. Cloud cover will remain ample, and don`t expect
temperatures to fall too much overnight; lows in the mid 40s to
low 50s can be expected. Smoke continues to blanket much of the
area, but the latest HRRR guidance has kept with the idea of
much of this shunting off to our west and south after midnight.
The forecast has this all pretty well covered, so only changes
with this update were some minor tweaks to temps/dewpoints to
blend in the latest observational trends.
Previous discussion...Air Quality Alerts remain
in place for northern NY through midnight and for Vermont
through 9 AM Wednesday as smoke from fires in Quebec continues
to move into our area. For additional information on air quality
conditions, please visit the New York State Department of
Environmental Conservation website at https:/on.ny.gov/nyaqi or
the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources website at
https:/dec.vermont.gov/air- quality/local- air-quality-
forecasts. Air quality is expected to improve tonight,
especially in areas that see rain today, but with large fires
remaining to our north and continued northerly wind direction we
can`t rule out additional smoky conditions into tomorrow.
Our area will remain under the influence of a sprawling upper-
level low centered just to our east, keeping cooler and
unsettled weather in place for the next few days. As cooler
upper-level air is pulled southward over our forecast area
today, mid-level lapse rates have steepened to around 7-8 deg
C/km as per latest mesoanalysis. Steepest lapse rates are
observed over our NY zones and into portions of western Vermont,
which lines up with area of greatest shower/thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon into this evening. Wet Bulb Zero heights
around 5-6 kft support the idea of small hail/graupel within
any convective showers/thunderstorms. Outside of any small hail
however, no severe weather expected today given limited shear.
As we head into the overnight hours, we`ll lose our diurnal
instability and coverage of thunderstorms should wane in coverage.
However, we will see increasing moisture rotating into our area from
the north/northeast around the upper low, which will support the
idea of increasing mid-level cloud cover overnight and potentially a
lingering shower or two. This cloud deck is visible on satellite
imagery over eastern Quebec, poised to move into our area overnight.
Overnight lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.
For Wednesday, very little change in the overall pattern with the
upper-level low still in control. Main difference will be the
location of the upper-level low, which will retrograde slightly
further west and become centered over our forecast area by Wednesday
night. Surface temperatures on Wednesday will be quite cool under
the low, with highs only forecast in the upper 50s for eastern VT,
around 60 in the Champlain Valley, and in the mid 50s to mid 60s in
northern NY. Some diurnal showers are again expected during the
afternoon, though cooler sfc temps and less instability will limit
shower coverage to less than what we are seeing today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 343 PM EDT Tuesday...A closed upper low across the Canadian
Maritimes will continue to be the main weather feature for the rest
of the work week. This system will result in continued chances of
showers, particularly in the afternoon hours. Precipitation chances
greatly decrease after sunset, however showers cannot be entirely
ruled out. Temperatures will be cooler than normal, with highs 5 to
10 degrees below normal. Overnight lows will also be seasonably
cool, with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 343 PM EDT Tuesday...Showery weather can be expected to
continue for most of the extended forecast period. The upper low
located over the Canadian Maritimes and New England is expected to
slowly break down as we head into the weekend, however models have
continued to slow down and struggle with how this low devolves. Some
dry conditions are possible Saturday night into Sunday as some brief
ridging build in. Unfortunately, another closed low developing early
next week over the Great Lakes a moving over the Mid-Atlantic or
Northeast, which would continue to bring showery conditions to the
region. However given the uncertainty of model guidance at this
time, the precipitation forecast for next week are likely to
change. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, the likelihood
of any severe weather is quite low through this period.
Temperatures will slowly warm up and become rather seasonable
for the weekend and stick around into next week. Daytime highs
will be in the mid 60s to low 70s on Saturday, warming up to the
high 80s come next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...A complex and busy TAF period over the
next 24 hours, currently having showers move across the forecast
area, bringing visibilities to as low as 2-4 SM. These showers
and their associated lowered vis should continue for the next
few hours, particularly across the Champlain Valley (KBTV, KPBG,
KRUT) where showers are being funneled southward. As showers die
out tonight, around 02Z-06Z Wednesday, we will still have haze
from Canada wildfire smoke restricting vis around 4-6 SM. KMSS
could also have some LLWS in addition to this haze and potential
scattered showers through around 09Z Wednesday. This smoke
should be clearing/mixing out of the entire forecast area around
06-12Z Wednesday, allowing for increased vis, but we won`t be
out of the woods quite yet as cigs are forecast to drop to MVFR
levels around the same time or shortly after, depending on the
site due to low pressure spiraling into our forecast area and
bringing with it lower clouds and more showers, which could also
potentially limit vis. More to come on that in subsequent TAF
packages as details become clearer.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Storm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of more unsettled weather will continue this week with
daily chances for some showers and a few thunderstorms, with the
best chances for showers across the eastern portions of the region.
Smoky skies and haze from the wildfires across eastern Canada
will likely persist across the entire region through the end of
the week. Cooler than normal temperatures can be expected the
rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Late this evening, convection east of Lake Ontario has pretty
much ended. There`s a small chance of a few showers overnight,
but lower PoPs considerably east of Lake Ontario. Elsewhere
will remain rain- free overnight. Lows will range from the mid
40s to lower 50s.
The upper low will retrograde a bit into northern New England
Wednesday and Wednesday night. As has been the case the last couple
of days, the best chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
will be across far eastern portions of the area, although an
isolated shower can not be completely ruled out farther to the
west.
Quebec wildfire smoke continues to impact the region. The region
has seen a plume of heavier smoke today, reducing visibility to
below 3 miles at times. Satellite imagery and latest HRRR
smoke products showing a general thinning to the incoming smoke
this evening. However, this same modeled smoke product
suggesting another round of potentially thick smoke will again
spread into the region late tonight and continue through much of
the day Wednesday and even into Wednesday night. This will lead
to another day of smoke filled skies and lower visibilities due
to smoke/haze. This model is also suggesting Wednesday could be
the most significant day as far as density of smoke is
concerned.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will continue to remain nearly stationary
over northern New England through the short term period.
Instability and moisture profiles look a little better, so
coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be a bit more
expansive with portions of the Southern Tier, Finger lakes as
well as the North Country having a shot at some scattered
diurnally driven convection. The core of the coolest air will
move into the area Thursday, resulting in the coolest day of the
week. Daytime highs will be some 10-15 degrees below average,
with temperatures struggling to reach 60 across the inland
higher terrain, with lower to mid 60s elsewhere. With little
change in our general wind flow, smoke issues may still be a
concern.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Elongated upper level low will still be draped from the Canadian
Maritimes to the mid-Atlantic region on Friday...with our region
remaining under the western half of its circulation. Daytime heating
of the cooler airmass attendant to the upper low will allow for
another round of diurnally-driven showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop from the interior sections of the Southern
Tier northeastward to the North Country on Friday...with these again
predominantly scattered and associated rainfall amounts generally
light. Diminishing heating/instability will then allow for a return
to mainly dry weather Friday night. Temps through Friday night will
remain a bit below normal for the first third of June...with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 60s on Friday followed by lows ranging
from the mid 40s to lower 50s Friday night.
On Saturday the persistent upper level low will finally depart off
to our east...with weak shortwave ridging briefly building in aloft
between this system and the next shortwave trough dropping from
central Canada to the upper Great Lakes. This will result in a
mainly dry day for most areas...though the North Country and Saint
Lawrence Valley could still see a few more widely scattered showers
as one final shortwave impulse dives around the backside of the
departing upper low. Otherwise...we should see a warmer day with
rising heights/temperatures aloft allowing surface temps to climb
back to the mid to upper 70s south of Lake Ontario...and to the
upper 60s to mid 70s across the North Country.
After that...the guidance suite continues to suggest that the
aforementioned shortwave trough will close off into yet another
upper level low over the central/upper Great Lakes between later
Saturday night and Sunday...with this feature then slowly meandering
its way somewhere across the Ohio Valley and/or the lower Great
Lakes through the first part of next week. Depending upon the
ultimate track of this system...it could bring us some much-needed
rainfall or leave us mainly dry...and at this juncture it`s still
hard to say which of these scenarios is more likely given the
variance in both track and timing exhibited by the medium range
guidance suite over the last 24-36 hours. With this in mind...for
now have just indicated general chance PoPs in the forecast for
later Saturday night/Sunday on through the end of the period.
Otherwise temperatures for this time frame look to be right around
normal for mid-June...with daily highs mostly in the mid to upper
70s and nightly lows ranging through the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wildfire smoke continues to be the main concern for aviation.
This has lowered visibility to 2-5SM at times today, and many
stations reported `cloud bases` around 4k feet due to the
smoke. Conditions have improved some this evening. However,
smoke is likely to increase again late tonight and Wednesday
with widespread MVFR vsby and localized vsby less than 2SM
possible.
Scattered showers possible east of Lake Ontario near KART
Wednesday afternoon. The rest of the area will remain rain-free
with the smoke likely causing many stations to report ceilings
around 4k feet.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...Possible MVFR visibility restrictions from smoke
and haze. Chance of showers.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers each day.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Mainly northerly component winds will prevail through the rest
of the week. At this time, conditions look to remain below Small
Craft Advisory thresholds, but it will be choppy at times with
waves peaking at 2-3 feet.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM/TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/JLA/TMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
922 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region tonight and persist
through the first half of the weekend. A cold front will move
southeast across the local area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
The near-term forecast remains valid per latest trends in
observations and model guidance. NW`erly to N`erly flow aloft
will continue to transport smoke over our CWA from central ON
and vicinity through tonight. Given the loss of daytime heating
and associated convective mixing of the boundary layer, the
bulk of the smoke should remain aloft over our region. Near-
surface smoke concentration forecasts from the several most-
recent runs of the HRRR support this expectation. However,
predominantly N`erly surface winds are expected from central ON
to our CWA through tonight. Thus, cannot rule-out pockets of
greater smoke concentration at/near the surface through daybreak
Wednesday.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure will build over the region tonight through the
near term period. Although dry weather is expected, there are
two items of concern: smoke/haze and an elevated fire risk.
Much of the area has been reporting haze with reduced visibility
and a broken/overcast cloud deck, which is thanks to smoke
moving across the area from wildfires over Quebec. Expect
the smoke to generally push south of the area after sunset this
evening, however another batch of smoke will most likely move
into the eastern half of the area later tonight as a vort max
pushes south across the area. This smoke is expected to linger
across the area into Wednesday, so another hazy day is likely.
Fire weather conditions will be a bit more favorable on
Wednesday with minimum RH values of 20 to 30% anticipated across
most of the area during Wednesday afternoon. Similar to
today, smoke/opaque cloud cover may limit daytime heating and
reduce the fire weather risk, but it will be drier with breezy
winds so will need to monitor over the next 12-18 hours. SPC
places the northern 2/3 of the CWA in an elevated fire weather
outlook area.
Low temps tonight and Wednesday night will fall into the mid to
upper 40s to lower 50s with the warmest temps forecast along
the lakeshore. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s
on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
More of the same cool, mostly dry, and smoky weather will continue
Thursday and Friday as an amplified pattern remains in place
characterized by a broad mid/upper ridge over the Rockies and Plains
and a large closed mid/upper low over the NE CONUS. This will keep a
northerly flow of cool air across the region, with smoke from
numerous wildfires in Ontario and Quebec streaming down across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Smoke plume forecasts from the HREF
suggest that some of the thickest smoke may occur around Thursday
morning, so visibilities below 5 miles and an overall hazy look to
the sky will continue to be a problem at times. This will also
reduce air quality. Cannot rule out a few showers in NW PA and far
NE Ohio Thursday through Friday, especially with daytime heating, as
mid-level moisture rotates around the west side of the mid/upper
low, but the dry low-level airmass will keep these isolated, so kept
PoPs below the blended forecasts. Highs Thursday and Friday will
only reach the upper 60s/low 70s in NW PA and most of NE Ohio, with
low/mid 70s in north central and NW Ohio. Lows will dip into the
upper 40s/low 50s Thursday night and low/mid 50s Friday night, with
some upper 40s continuing in far NE Ohio and NW PA Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still looks like the best chance for rain that we have had in 3
weeks will come this weekend. The old mid/upper low over the NE
CONUS will exit Saturday ahead of a strong shortwave trough diving
into the Upper Midwest. Slight height rises and warm air advection
ahead of this shortwave will boost highs into the upper 70s/low 80s
Saturday, and the low-level flow turning more SW should also shunt
some of the wildfire smoke out of the area. Deterministic guidance
and the model blend wants to develop showers well ahead of the front
for Saturday, but dew points will struggle to rise much out of the
40s due to the very dry ground, and the best forcing holds off until
late Saturday night and Sunday, so only brought in slight chance
PoPs for NW Ohio Saturday afternoon. As the aforementioned mid/upper
shortwave digs into the western Great Lakes Saturday night and
Sunday, an associated cold front will slowly sag toward the region.
The right entrance region of the associated jet may develop a weak
surface low along the frontal boundary, and this would be the best
hope for widespread rain, but it would also slow down the front and
best rain chances until later Sunday and Sunday night. Guidance is
indeed trending slower, although there is still uncertainty, with
the GFS being the most progressive. For this forecast, kept the
blend which has chance PoPs Saturday night increasing to likely
Sunday afternoon, but the best rain may arrive Sunday evening into
Sunday night if trends continue. Scattered showers will then linger
Monday through Tuesday as the trough looks to evolve into a cut off
low across the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. This will keep elevated
moisture around with showers blossoming during daytime heating.
Despite these better rain chances, QPF may stay until 1 inch for
most areas between Sunday and Tuesday since model guidance tends to
over-forecast dew points in drought situations. So this rain will
not be a drought buster; it will just temporarily slow down the
developing drought.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Primarily VFR and fair weather are expected through 00Z/Thurs as a
surface high pressure ridge centered near Hudson Bay builds into our
area. Northwesterly to northeasterly regional surface winds around 5
to 10 knots likely persist. Aloft, cyclonic and predominantly
northwesterly to northerly flow is forecast to persist. This flow
should continue to transport variable amounts of smoke over our area
from wildfires in southern QC and especially central ON. The smoke
should primarily be confined in a layer from ~5kft to ~30kft above
MSL. However, diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer may be
deep enough to mix-down some smoke and reduce surface visibility to
MVFR between ~15Z/Wed and ~00Z/Thurs. Confidence in surface
visibility being reduced to MVFR is low, though. Of note, cirriform
cloud cover ahead of a disturbance aloft will likely exit our region
generally to the south by 06Z/Wed.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms this Thursday through weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
N winds will increase to 15-20 knots on the western and central
basins of Lake Erie behind a cold front tonight building waves to 2
to 5 feet, so expanded the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards
Statement to Ottawa county for these winds, waves, and risk of rip
currents. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue offshore of
Lake County. Otherwise, N winds will quickly decrease to 5-10 knots
Wednesday before briefly increasing to 15-20 knots again Wednesday
night. NNW winds of 10-15 knots are then expected Thursday
decreasing to 5-10 knots by Friday. Winds then become SW at 10-15
knots by Saturday before turning E at 10-15 knots Sunday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ007-
009>011.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ143>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Maines
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Garuckas
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1115 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy conditions will be favorable for dangerous
wildfire spread through the evening, mainly across easter PA.
Smoke from wildfires in Quebec, Canada will result in hazy skies
and poor/unhealthy air quality today. Temperatures will trend
slightly cooler into late week with an increased risk of
scattered rain showers Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Robust downdraft CAPES ~1000 J/kg fueling gusty shra and isold
tsra late this afternoon and early evening over my southeast.
Sporadic wind damage reports fielded since early to mid
afternoon (a Lewistown damage report from 1:30 pm trickled in
early this evening). This as a short wave pushes a moisture
challenged cold front through the area this evening. Dewpoints
are impressively falling into the 20s behind the front, almost
unheard of for June in central PA.
Activity will exit my southeast in the next hour, giving way to
mainly clear and chilly night, with widespread mins in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Day shift Wednesday will touch base with DEP Harrisburg
regarding Air Quality over the rest of central PA (outside of
the Lower Susq AQA region), given extensive impact from haze
and smoke from Canadian wildfires in these areas.
Similar wx setup expected for Wednesday with aforementioned
upper trough expanding over New England and the Mid Atlantic
states. Airmass remains quite dry for this time of year and
expect any diurnal convection to remain spotty to isolated at
best. MaxTs trend a few to several degrees cooler vs. Tuesday
with daytime highs AOB daily climo. Smoke and haze issued will
also likely to continue to reduce visibility and air quality.
Fire weather risk remains elevated given ongoing abnormally dry
to moderate drought, low RH and breezy conditions. SPC has
outlined an elevated risk on the Day 2 fire weather outlook.
Another mainly clear and cool night with lows in the 40-50F
range.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The various ensemble prediction systems remain consistent in
their depiction of the large-scale pattern heading into the
weekend and early next week. The pattern will consist of a low
amplitude upper trough axis across eastern Canada and the
northeastern CONUS, with an upper ridge axis holding firm over
the middle of the CONUS and central Canada. Resultant NW flow
aloft will keep any sustained heat well west of the Commonwealth,
with a progressive surface cold front likely to cross the
region Sunday or Monday. However, transition from current
blocking pattern is still not fully certain, and so what we can
say for sure is that Sunday into Monday may present the best
CHANCE of rain we`ll see for the next week, but it`s far from
certain at this early time.
As for the daily sensible weather, Saturday continues to look
mainly dry. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible
on Sunday, tied to the aforementioned cold front. Shower
chances may linger into Monday, depending on the progression of
the frontal zone.
Friday`s highs in the 70s, will warm into the mid 70s-mid 80s
over the weekend, before edging downward into the 70s range
again on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface ridging building into the state will bring dry weather
and diminishing wind overnight. However, smoke from wildfires
over Quebec will continue to affect the region. Visibilities are
in the 3-5sm range at 03Z over roughly the northeast half of PA
and the latest run of the RAP Smoke model suggests little change
overnight.
A cold front will sweep south across the region Wednesday,
perhaps producing a shower in a few spots. However, the main
story will continue to be visibility reductions from smoke. The
RAP Smoke models suggests vsbys should start the day in the
5-10sm range, then fall by afternoon as thicker smoke drifts
into the state from the north. MVFR conditions during the PM
hours appear likely, with even IFR possible over northern PA.
Outlook...
Thu-Fri...Isold PM tsra.
Sat-Sun...No sig wx expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated risk to critical fire weather conditions expected late
this morning through the evening across portions of east-central
PA. As highlighted in the near term section, there is the very
rare potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across central PA.
Parched soils and dry fuels combined with wind conditions are
signaling potential Red Flag conditions. Similar risks will
exist tomorrow with little change in the pattern.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Gartner
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Gartner
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/DeVoir
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
706 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Forecast Impacts for the week:
...Scat showers/storms into tonight
...Backdoor front exits west Thursday morning
...Sct storms Sat/cooler and dry Sun >> Tue
Confidence Short Term: Medium to High
Weak synoptic pattern continues over the region. Weak low over
southern Minnesota with attendant troughs/backdoor cold front
sliding toward Iowa this morning has created some showers/storms
over the northeast and in Wisconsin north to Minnesota. Dewpoints
over the area remain in the lower 60s and will eventually lower
once the backdoor front exits the west of our forecast area by
Thursday morning. The HRRR and the synoptic models both show the
weak trough/front will be the focal point of another round of
scattered showers/storms into the evening hours;mainly diurnally
driven with expected weakening during the overnight. With no
organized upper level support, any cells will likely outflow and
propagate more development to the south/southwest with time. As
instability wanes into the late evening, strength and perhaps
coverage as well, should diminish both. Though forcing aloft and
at the surface are relatively weak, GFS forecast PWATs this
afternoon and evening along the boundary suggest a decent 1.5 to
1.75 corridor focused along the westward propagating boundary.
HRRR bufkit soundings are not too impressive, but portions of
northern Iowa nearer MCW are suggesting a bit more development
between 5 and 7 pm, back toward US20 corridor during this time.
This might lead to a few storms with potential wind gusts of 45
mph as outflow overtakes the convective updraft and a quick 1 or
more inches of rainfall in a quick, heavy downpour. Farther south
and southeast, soundings are not as impressive. Tonight with the
potential for some scattered showers/storms and boundary still
edging west to about I35 by 12z, lows will be cooler in the
northeast and still quite mild from central to western areas;
ranging from around 60 northeast to the mid 60s central to west.
Showers will still be possible through the morning and afternoon
tomorrow, with the higher chances focusing over areas west of I35
closer to US 71 by afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be trending
lower as clouds and the cooler air builds west. Afternoon readings
will reach the upper 70s northeast to the lower to mid 80s in the
west. Tomorrow night the continued westward shift of the boundary
will push the shower chances farther west and overnight lows
cooler as well. East to northeast areas will lower to the lower
50s with upper 50s to 60 west.
&&
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Confidence: Medium to High
High pressure will eventually shut down any chances for
precipitation by Thursday morning and continue into Friday
afternoon/early evening. Thursday will be another quiet day with a
fair amount of sunshine and quiet conditions. Highs will reach the
upper 70s to lower 80s. The high will begin drift southeast of the
region Friday with increasing warmth and return of low level
moisture as the previous ribbon of moisture west of Iowa drifts back
into the area and once again establishes itself by Friday night into
Saturday. Medium range models continue to advertise a weak front
dropping south into the area on Saturday, moving south of the area
by 12z Sunday. The early weekend system has a slightly stronger wind
field just trailing the boundary as it moves south during the day
and evening. Sufficient instability and weak shear may be enough for
a few stronger storms as the boundary tracks over the area. Similar
to this afternoon through tomorrow, PWATs again pool along the
boundary to 1.5 to 1.75 inches. This may lead to a few storms that
produce brief heavy downpours and gusty winds once again during the
afternoon/evening hours mainly. The front is expected to push south
of the region by 12z Sunday with much cooler conditions in the
region through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across some TAF sites
this evening. Currently have mentions of VCTS over KALO, KDSM and
KOTM for the early TAF period, but expect storms to diminish in
coverage as the evening progresses. Ceilings expected to remain
VFR, but a brief drop to MVFR in association with a storm is
possible. Few gusty winds are possible with storms but generally
light and variable winds expected overnight. Additional scattered
showers and storms likely to form early Wednesday into Wednesday
afternoon. No mentions at this time due to low confidence in
direct impact to TAF sites given scattered coverage of storms.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...Castillo/KCM
For this long-term forecast discussion, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty with regard to the overall weather pattern and the
resulting weather impacts we will observe. While there will still be a
chance for some strong/severe thunderstorms in the area this weekend
and into next week, this depends highly on the upper level disturbances
and timing and final positioning of a cold front that will move through.
Beginning with Saturday, a shortwave trough should be sliding south to
southeast across the northern Plains. This will force a cold front
south, and will likely enter our area Saturday afternoon to evening
although timing remains quite uncertain with a variety of forecast
guidance solutions existing. As for the environment ahead of the front,
there appears to be sufficient instability for storms with SBCape of
1000-2500 j/kg (quite the spread again from guidance, but this is
likely a result of the frontal timing differences) and lapse rates of
6.5-7.5 C/km. However, along with the past few weeks of potential
severe weather, shear is again the limiting factor with 0-6 km bulk
shear ranging from 5 to 20 kts. PWATs remain quite substantial with
readings approaching 1.30 inches, well above the 90th percentile. It`s
possible the front causes storms to move along, but as it stands now,
it seems the more pertinent threat will be heavy rainfall and flash
flooding, especially since the best chances for rain are currently
expected to like along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Severe weather
remains possible, though outside of a couple lower end hail and wind
reports, I wouldn`t anticipate much.
For Sunday, the cold front should have pushed completely through the
forecast area. This should result in quite a pleasant day for many
locations. In fact, most of the area will probably be precipitation-
free as a surface high briefly influences the area. That being said, I
won`t rule out precipitation completely as current indications are that
the front will stall out somewhere just east of the Colorado Front
Range. An afternoon disturbance is expected to eject east over the
Plains during the afternoon ahead of a deepening western US low, so
should see some storms over the High Plains. Most likely, the storms
will form west of the forecast area and then move east, perhaps
traversing the High Plains depending on the environment. I think it
would be a better bet that storms would enter eastern Colorado and
struggle moving across the Colorado border given the influence of
surface high pressure and weakly unstable and cooler environment.
Going into next week, an upper level disturbance positioned in the
southwestern United States should start to influence our weather. As it
approaches, I would anticipate lead shortwave troughs to bring the
possibility of severe thunderstorm development. However, compared to
recent forecast runs, the positioning of this cold front will be
absolutely key to the forecast. Currently, it seems as though there
should be some return flow as a surface low deepens east of the
Colorado Front Range, and it also appears that we may see the cold
front lift into the region as a warm front. Further, a dryline should
sharpen across the High Plains both Monday and Tuesday. However, the
main issue against severe weather remains wind shear, and it does seem
like models have shifted the increased winds aloft further south. If
this were to happen, then once again the NWS Goodland forecast area
will find ourselves in a weakly sheared environment which would not be
terribly conducive for severe weather, and definitely not conducive to
a potential outbreak. Those conditions should be confined further
south, over the southern Great Plains. For now, the main message about
the forecast for next week is to stay tuned as there will be potential
for severe storms although uncertainty and the current setup do not
support widespread severe storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period
beginning with southerly winds around 10 kts that become variable
around 6 kts at 03Z. By 18Z, KGLD winds look to become
southeasterly around 10 kts.
KMCK...VFR conditions are also expected at KMCK throughout the
entire 00Z TAF period with variable winds around 6 kts forecasted
during the period.
The RAP model shows some chances for low clouds/fog at both
terminals around 12Z, but low confidence in this occurring as no
other models forecast this happening in their latest runs. Will
monitor in case other models pick this up, but not anticipating it
to affect flight categories if it does occur.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...076
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
925 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
A cold front had shifted well south of the forecast early this
afternoon, and Hudson Bay high pressure was building into
northern WI. Smoky conditions had improved over GRB CWA, at least
at the surface, where all observing sites were reporting
visibilities in the 7-10SM range. Partly sunny skies were
observed, along with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s and
70s.
Dry weather will prevail tonight and Wednesday, with skies
becoming mostly clear later tonight. After a bit of a reprieve
today, an elevated layer of smoke is expected to arrive in NE WI
overnight, then overspread the rest of the forecast area on
Wednesday. There are indications that near-surface smoke may
return to parts of northern WI Wednesday afternoon.
A very dry air mass and daytime mixing will cause dew points and
relative humidities to crash Wednesday afternoon. Given the dry
conditions of the past two weeks and relative humidities dropping
into the 15 to 25 percent range, there will continued concern for
wildfires, especially in the sandy soil regions of northern WI.
Lows tonight are expected to mainly be in the 40s across the
north, and around 50 in central and east central Wisconsin. Highs
on Wednesday should be in the 70s, with some 60s near Lake
Michigan.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
The main forecast concern will be precipitation chances,
especially Friday night into Saturday.
For much of the work week, the forecast area will have northerly
flow aloft on the east side of a high amplitude upper level
ridge, with Canadian high pressure at the surface. Dry and
comfortable conditions, including low afternoon relative humidity,
can be expected through at least Thursday night. High
temperatures will generally range from 75 to 80 degrees, except
near Lake Michigan, where persistent NE winds will keep
temperatures cooler. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and lower
50s, though the colder spots in northern WI will likely drop into
the 30s early Thursday morning. Will need to monitor for possible
frost headlines then.
Temperatures will increase a bit by Friday, as warmer air pushes
into the region ahead of a cold front. This will be short-lived,
as the cold front is forecast to move through Friday night into
Saturday. The frontal passage and associated short-wave trough
will offer the best possibility for precipitation during the
extended forecast period. The best chance should occur over C/EC
WI Saturday afternoon, as instability increases to around 1000
j/kg and PWATS increase to 1-1.4 inches in the vicinity of the
front, and the RRQ of an upper level jet passes through. With deep
layer shear of 25 to 35 knots anticipated, we will need to
monitor the potential for a few strong storms as well. Most of
the precipitation should shift south of the region Saturday
night.
There is some uncertainty with the forecast for the end of the
weekend into early next week. Models all close off an upper low
over the western Great Lakes on Sunday, but the ECMWF is slower
than the GEM/GFS to shift it to the east. Depending on the
position/movement of the upper low, precipitation chances may need
to be increased, temperatures lowered several degrees, and winds
increased at times.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 925 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Stratocumulus around 5000-6000 feet will continue fade/exit late
this evening across mainly central WI, with other higher mid and
upper clouds over the entire area. These clouds will slowly exit
from northeast to southwest overnight. A sprinkle could clip
AUW/CWA later tonight, but will have no impact to ceilings.
East to northeast winds will continue, remaining light tonight
then increase on Wednesday, gusting up 12-22 kts, highest in the
Fox Valley and lake shore.
While a little smoke remains aloft late this evening, a thicker
area is lurking over Lake Superior and Ontario, seen nicely on the
GOES visible imagery (plus you can see some very large fires
raging in eastern Ontario and western Quebec). RAP/HRRR don`t
fully agree on where the area of smoke will go, but RAP seems to
have a better handle on things (likely do to a bigger domain which
captures more of the current smoke), so will follow it. This
brings the thicker smoke back across most of the area into
Wednesday. It looks to stay mainly aloft, creating hazy skies, but
little impact in surface conditions (VSBYs) is expected for this
TAF period. While a 6SM is possible where the smoke is the
thickest, not much upstream support for the smoke making it down
to the surface so will keep P6SM for all sites.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Bersch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1109 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
With the continued decrease in winds, conditions have fallen below
hazardous levels for the nearshore/lakeshore zones. We have
allowed for the Beach Hazards and Small Craft Advisories to
expire.
UPDATE Issued at 912 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
The temperature has started to decrease and that has supported
an increase in the humidity levels. Also the winds have
decreased. As a result we allowed the Red Flag Warning to
expire. We did bump up the cloud cover for tonight. The smoke
was obscuring the sky and that will likely persist through the
night with a north to northeast flow persisting.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Fire Weather concerns remain very high for this time of year, and
Wednesday`s weather is a little more concerning than today. More
information in the Fire Weather section.
Patchy cirrostratus clouds have reduced the depth of dry air mixing
today and relative humidity has been on the higher side of forecast.
A slight haze in the air with air quality at Moderate to Unhealthy-
For-Sensitive-Groups categories for particulates has been most
prevalent in southern portions of Lower Michigan. This is lingering
forest fire smoke from Quebec that has blanketed much of the region
over the past few days. It should gradually move out of here as
winds from the north bring in somewhat cleaner air but also drier
air. There will continue to be a layer of moderate amounts of smoke
aloft in the mid-levels through tomorrow, which is being channeled
in from fires in Northwest Canada according to the RAP-Smoke. The
RAP-Smoke also suggests that if smoke produced in northwest Quebec
today is substantial, near-surface smoke may intrude into parts of
the state tomorrow afternoon/evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
There`s finally some hope for rain in the long term period, although
probably not enough to make a significant dent in the ongoing
drought conditions.
Thursday and Friday remain dry as northerly flow with dew points
in the 30s continues on the wrn side of the New England upper low.
This pattern keeps the fire weather concerns high, especially on
Thursday when wind speeds are still somewhat elevated.
The chance for showers commences on Saturday as a sfc cold front and
shortwave within the northwest flow aloft drop toward the area.
Southwest flow develops ahead of these features and sends PWATs to
closer to normal values around one or more inch by Saturday
night. A better chance of rain comes on Sunday when the sfc front
stalls overhead and an upper low closes off over the nrn GrtLks
Rgn.
The closed upper low is shown to drift slowly south early next week
keeping daily rain chances alive, however fcst confidence is low
regarding the daily position of the low. Lobes of vorticity rotating
around the upper low should result in waves/rounds of scattered
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms continuing on Monday and
Tuesday.
Ensemble QPF spread is significant for Saturday through Tuesday but
the mean during this time is over a half inch for much of the area.
There`s even a few members which produce over two inches of rain,
but that`s a very low probability scenario.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Low level moisture will continue to be limited through the period.
Thus the risk for fog or sub VFR cloud bases is low. However, the
smoke from the Canadian wildfires could lower the visibilities
slightly. We were not confident enough on its occurrence at the
surface to add it to the forecast at this time. A general north to
northeast flow will prevail and it will become gusty as
temperatures warm up on Wednesday. Close to the Lake Michigan
shoreline an onshore wind will setup during the day on Wednesday,
impacting KMKG as the lake breeze moves slightly inland.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
So far the buoys and wind sensors in the marine environment are
not verifying the Beach Hazard and Small Craft Advisory that is in
effect. However the latest HRRR is still forecasting 20 kt north-
northwest winds just offshore at 21Z, so will keep the marine
headlines going. The situation on Wednesday and Thursday is
similar with guidance showing a period of stronger 20-25 kt NNW
winds developing for the afternoon and evening hours. Lighter
winds are expected over Lk MI on Friday and Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Fire weather concerns approaching Red Flag Warning conditions will
remain likely through at least Thursday. The fuel conditions in the
dry northern conifer forests north of Newaygo/Clare are of most
concern. Farther south, fires can still occur in fields and
hardwoods, but it may take stronger winds there for fire spread to
become overwhelming. Wednesday looks a little cooler but sunnier,
drier, and slightly more windy than Tuesday with gusts at 20 feet
more likely to exceed 15 mph, so another Red Flag Warning may be
needed.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...Meade
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...CAS
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
942 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure to the southeast will usher in even warmer
temperatures for Wednesday ahead of a cold front dropping
southward. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. After a brief
cooldown Thursday as high pressure settles in, temperatures
will return to near and above normal through the weekend as the
high shifts offshore. The next cold front should bring increased
rain chances for early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Areas of showers and thunderstorms remain somewhat erratic in
coverage this late evening probably due in part to numerous
outflow boundaries generated by earlier activity and inverted v
signatures. I did adjust pops a bit southward outside of the
current activity in Pender County but this short line may become
enhanced near Cape Fear in a few hours via the latest high
resolution guidance.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface boundary location was evident in visible satellite imagery
this afternoon, with cumulus development generally south of a line
from RAH to CLT. Clustering along the sea breeze may lead to some
light showers initially developing there through the late afternoon.
HRRR is still highlighting potential development of some
thunderstorms this evening across portions of the Pee Dee including
Darlington, Florence and Williamsburg counties. Am capping PoP at 20-
30% for now, based on the slow development of the Cu field. The slow-
moving remnant frontal boundary will meander into the northern CWA
through early Wednesday, before shortwave energy aloft pushes a
second front through to Georgetown by early Wednesday evening. A
relative minimum in precipitable water (<1") should limit
shower/tstm development ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, so
will once again keep PoPs capped at 20-30%. Temps will be close to
climo through the near term, with lows tonight in the mid 60s, and
highs Wednesday ranging from 85 near the coast to 90 inland.
Regarding water levels along the lower Cape Fear, minor flooding is
expected with tonight`s high tide, although not quite to the
same extent as Monday night. Latest forecast is for the downtown
ILM gauge to reach 5.7 feet between midnight and 1 AM, so will
issue an advisory for minor flooding.
Otherwise, regarding the extensive haziness from Canadian wildfire
smoke, is appears that it will continue through Wednesday as it
circulates southward around the upper low retrograding over the New
England states.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At the start of the period, a spoke of vorticity rotating around
the backside of a large closed upper low over northern New
England will be pushing southward. A surface cold front will
likely be draped across our CWA Wednesday evening and on its way
southward with isolated to perhaps scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing along or ahead of it. Guidance
continues to suggest weakening convergence along the front will
result in a decaying band of showers dropping into our NC zones
Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trough may be
able to produce a somewhat more organized line of convection in
the SC zones if enough instability is present. Unseasonably low
dewpoints across the inland zones in the 50s will limit
instability and modest bulk shear reserved to near/along the
front will present a narrow window for storm to develop which
may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, mainly near the
coast. The Storm Prediction Center currently highlights the
whole CWA in a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
thunderstorms, but the best of this low chance will be nearer to
the coast. Low temps Wednesday night will be cooler than normal,
mainly in the low 60s.
Chances for rain will decrease from north to south through the
night as the front sinks into southern SC by sunrise. However,
as the lobe of vorticity pivots eastward around the closed
upper low, a weak surface low may develop and track along the
front, slowing its southward progress. This may permit some
passing showers to affect the SC zones on Thursday, but these
should be brief and fast-moving if they do occur. Cooler and
drier air will bring high temps below normal for the day,around
80F. Another shortwave rotating around the upper low should
help push the front more definitively away from the area
overnight Thursday night, bringing rain chances to an end and
knocking lows to even cooler values in the upper 50s. On
Friday, high pressure over the Midwest will build southeastward
over the area with weak warm advection starting up as it moves
offshore. High temps will be slightly warmer than Thursday,
mainly in the low-mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure and increasing mid-level ridging will
dominate through most of the weekend, finally producing much
more summer-like conditions than we have seen over the last
month or so. Sunny skies and warm to very warm highs in the
mid-80s to around 90F are on tap for Saturday and Sunday. If you
will be seeking to enjoy the warming beach waters this weekend,
make sure to swim safely, responsibly, and in the presence of
lifeguards. While morning lows on Saturday will be unseasonably
chilly, in the upper 50s to around 60, Sunday morning`s lows
will end up around normal, in the middle 60s.
Looking upstream, model guidance unfortunately agrees that yet
another closed low is likely to develop during Sunday and Sunday
night, this time over or near the Great Lakes vicinity. The lead
shortwave responsible for this low is progged to produce a
surface low which will track through the Ohio Valley and into
New England early next week. This will lift a warm front through
which will mainly serve to increase dewpoints instead of
temperatures ahead of a cold front. With the fairly close
proximity of the surface low and abundant moisture, there may be
considerable shower activity along and ahead of the front on
Monday into Monday night. However, as upper lows are difficult
for model guidance to handle and especially with this being 6
days out, have opted to cap PoPs in the chance range at this
point until more consistency across future model runs is
observed. Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front and
how cool things become behind the front will depend on the
ultimate evolution of the closed low, so stay tuned to future
forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected through the period. The anticipated surface trough
is moving southward through the area. The column will remain
very dry with surface dewpoints dropping off a bit from here.
This along with some wind will preclude any fog formation. The
increasing pops for Wednesday afternoon aren`t high enough to
warrant mention at least at this time.
Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Wednesday
through Saturday, outside of showers/tstms associated with a
frontal passage Wednesday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Through Wednesday...SW flow of 15-20 kt will continue
overnight between high pressure centered off the SE coast and a
surface trough across central NC. Any shower/tstm activity that
develops inland late this afternoon and early evening will track
towards the waters, but tendency should be to weaken if it
holds together and manages to move off the coast. A cold front
will approach from the north late Wednesday afternoon, and
depending on timing, may produce a wind shift across the waters
north of Cape Fear by late afternoon. A moderate gradient will
remain in place between the retreating surface high off the FL
coast and the advancing cold front, resulting in 15-20 kt SW
winds, with perhaps occasional gusts into the low 20s, through
the near term period.
Wednesday night through Sunday...
Gusty winds around 20 kts and elevated seas into the 3-5 ft
range, mainly from the south at 6 seconds, Wednesday evening
will gradually subside through the night as a cold front settles
southward, shifting winds to northwesterly early in the night.
High pressure builds in for the rest of the period with offshore
flow generally aob 10 kts through Friday night becoming
southerly at 10-15 kts for Saturday and Sunday. Seas in the 2-3
ft range mainly from the south at 5-6 sec Thursday into Friday
become 1-2 ft by late Friday before rising back into the 2-3 ft
range on Saturday as the gradient tightens. A warm front lifting
through on Sunday will bring increased winds and seas rising
further into the 2-4 ft range, mainly from the southeast at 7
sec.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ABW/CRM
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
Key Messages:
- Rain chances remain in the forecast through Saturday.
- Dry and pleasant weather Sunday through Tuesday.
There remains a slight chance of a spotty shower or thunderstorm
through about 7 pm. We are seeing a couple of cells pop up in
central NE, and can`t rule it out through the remainder of the
afternoon, but most areas will more likely stay dry.
The story for Wednesday will be the back door front that will move
into the are from the east. This front is currently across central
IA, and models push this northwest to southeast front into our
area Wednesday. With the front bisecting the region at peak
heating, most of the Cams indicate stronger convective development
around 1 pm through 9 pm. Effective wind shear is still pretty
weak at 20 knots or less, but the boundary could be the focus for
at least a marginal chance of a stronger storm or two capable of
hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. The HRRR
model has the stronger convection west of the Missouri River, and
the HiResW/WRFARW/NamNest all have it along the Missouri River, so
there will still be refinement of the exact placement. Otherwise,
it will still be hot tomorrow, with highs west of the front in the
lower 90s, and east mid to upper 80s.
Any storms that develop will linger into the Wednesday evening,
but not much left after midnight into Thursday morning. With the
front now remaining in place Thursday into Friday, it will provide
at least a small chance of showers/storms especially during the
afternoon and evenings, and especially across eastern NE. Thursday
highs in the lower to mid 80s mostly, and mid to upper 80s Friday.
There is another cold front that will move through the region
Saturday. This will increase our rain chances to 40-60%. Wind
shear may be slightly stronger at 25 knots, but the severe storm
threat may not be high enough to trip SPC`s day 5 outlook at this
time. Can`t rule out a stronger storm or two though.
The front does bring drier weather Sunday through Tuesday. It also
brings cooler and pleasant temperatures, highs Sunday in the upper
70s, lower 80s Monday, and mid 80s for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023
A backdoor front is expected to push its way through eastern NE
Wednesday afternoon leading to possible scattered TSRA at all
terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...DEE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1058 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through and gets east of the region tonight.
Low pressure will otherwise remain near the Canadian Maritimes
Wednesday. The low weakens as it shifts over the area Thursday
before moving into the western Atlantic Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure builds in Saturday and moves offshore
Sunday. A frontal system impacts the area Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Any lingering shower activity has pushed offshore with any
remaining activity weakening up to the north and northeast.
Smoke and haze from wildfires across eastern Canada will
continue working into the region. Visibilities get down as low
as 2-5sm at times. The latest HRRR and RRFS_A near-surface
smoke fields indicate the concentration may lower at least some
overnight behind the cold front passage, but have and show
widespread haze in the forecast into the early morning hours.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with lows in the upper
40s and low 50s inland and lower to middle 50s close to the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layered cyclonic flow continues with anomalous closed low
retrograding from the Maritimes to northern New England
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Disturbances rotating around the
upper low will bring scattered to broken clouds Wednesday
afternoon with a slight chance of showers. Coverage looks less
than today with less forcing and less focus at the surface. Any
shower activity looks isolated on Wednesday afternoon and the
latest suite of CAMs is in good agreement. Temperatures on
Wednesday will reach the low to middle 70s. Lows Wednesday night
will be in the 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast.
Hazy conditions are likely to continue through Wednesday
evening. Near surface smoke may be less in the morning, but the
last several runs of the extended HRRR have indicated higher
concentrations of smoke closer to the surface in the afternoon
and evening on Wednesday. The concentrations could be higher
across the western half of the forecast area, but have put in
patchy smoke areawide for now.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper closed low pressure across the northeast Thursday remains
Friday and then weakens and moves east Saturday. The longwave
trough remains across eastern Canada and another shortwave will
move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing into another
closed low that remains into Tuesday. Generally unsettled
weather will impact the area through much of the long term with
a chance of showers, and thunderstorms during the afternoons and
evenings Thursday into Saturday. A surface low and cold front
impacts the area later Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be
below seasonal levels Thursday and Friday, and return to more
seasonal levels Saturday into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front moves to the east tonight. VFR and MVFR through the TAF
period, with periods of MVFR mainly associated with lower
visibilities due to smoke. Latest amendments have lowered
visibilities through 5-7z due to thicker smoke and haze being
reported with slant range visibilities being impacted at a few
terminals. Brief IFR visibilities still possible for a few more
hours at a few terminals.
Winds are now NW and diminish into the overnight. NW winds continue
into Wed, with eastern coastal terminals like KJFK, KISP, KBDR and
KGON likely going W and SW late in the day.
Smoke from Quebec wildfires will limit slant range visibility at
times through 5-7z. Smoke and haze issues likely return again late
Wed and Wed evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Visibilities at ground may get as low as 3sm at times in smoke with
amendments possible through tonight. Smoke from Canadian wildfires
could limit slant range visibilities due to smoke aloft.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: N-NW winds around 5 kt. MVFR vsby again possible in
smoke/haze, especially during the evening.
Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early
evening showers both days.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels through the
upcoming weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient in
place. Low pressure moves away from the waters Thursday into
Friday, and high pressure builds in for Saturday and then east
on Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A special weather statement remains until 7pm for NE NJ with
an enhanced risk of brush fire spread. This is due to NW winds
at times gusting as high as 20 to 25 mph and RH values 30 to 35
percent.
No SPS will be needed for Wednesday based on collaboration with
NJ land managers.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes continues to produce E
swell that in tandem with high astronomical tides is keeping water
levels higher than usual, especially in the back bays of Nassau.
A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the high tide
cycle late this evening as water levels there may barely touch
minor coastal flooding thresholds.
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches on Wednesday, and a moderate risk on Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
843 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.EVENING UPDATE...Lingering shower and T-storm activity has
almost entirely held to the south of our CWA this evening with
upper-level convective debris streaming across the region in the
form of cirrus caught up in the southerly flow aloft. Moving
through the rest of the night into Wednesday morning, the cut-off
low to our south will continue to swing mid-level moisture
northward but without diurnal heating it likely goes untapped.
That said, some CAM guidance like the HRRR does show some isolated
shower and/or weak T-storm activity overnight over portions of
eastern Deschutes County, Crook County, and Grant County. This
appears to line up with a swath of moisture currently associated
with T-storms to our south and some remnant 100-400j/kg of MUCAPE
aloft as indicated by the NAM and Canadian model. Low end
PoPs(~15%) were added to these aforementioned areas to account for
this potential scenario although confidence is rather low given
its nocturnal nature. We`ll certainly have to watch the eastern
Mountains overnight should this moisture and any isolated activity
push further north; confidence is high north-central Oregon
through the Columbia Basin and northward stays dry and quiet.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track going forward with the
environment primed come Wednesday afternoon for scattered T-storms
across Central Oregon through the Eastern Mountains - isolated
severe activity possible. The previous discussion remains for
reference below. Schuldt/99
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023/
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...So far this
afternoon there have been mainly just cumulus development over the
southern and eastern areas of the CWA. There have not been any
lightning strikes yet in the forecast area as of 2 PM PDT.
However, there still remains enough instability and moisture to
warrant a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern
and eastern most areas of the CWA by late this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms today should just be the pulse type that
do not become organized supercell type storms with rotation.
The forecast area is in between a low pressure system to the south
and a weak upper trough to the north over southwest Canada and far
northern WA. There will be some moisture that will wrap around the
low to the south into the southern and eastern areas of the CWA
this evening that will produce some showers and possible
thunderstorms. SPC has a general risk of non-severe thunderstorms
over the southern and eastern areas of the CWA for this evening.
These will decrease overnight, and then there will be a better
chance, with increasing instability and moisture on Wednesday,
which will also push further to the north, reaching the Blue
Mountains and central OR. There will even be enough moisture and
instability for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on
Wednesday afternoon and evening for areas as far north as the Blue
Mountains. Currently, SPC has a MARGINAL risk of severe storms in
these areas.
The upper low over the Great Basin will then weaken, however a
southeast flow will remain, pushing moisture and instability into
the forecast area on Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitable
Water (PWAT) values will be higher, so thunderstorms will have a
better chance of producing more rain with them. However, due to
the increased cloud cover and expected cooler temperatures, it
will not be as unstable on Thursday, as it will be on Wednesday.
Therefore, only general thunderstorms will be expected for
Thursday and Thursday night. This is in agreement with both the
NBM 4.1, and also with the SPC convective outlook for Thursday.
Wednesday will be the hottest day, with high temperatures mostly
in the 90s, with a slight chance that some of the hotter areas of
the WA Lower Columbia Basin may reach 100 degrees. In the
mountains, highs will be mostly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. These
temperatures will be about 10-20 degrees above normal for early
June. Cooler temperatures are then expected for Thursday, by
about 4-6 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the 60s lower
elevations and mostly 40s to mid 50s in the mountains.
It will become locally breezy to windy during the afternoons and
evenings, mainly in central to north central OR, as well as the
eastern Columbia River Gorge. The strongest winds will be on
Thursday when a westerly pressure gradient tightens up across the
Cascades and causes winds to increase through the Cascade gaps
and the eastern Columbia River Gorge. 88
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...The extended period is
characterized by a passing open wave from our south, as another
upper level low pressure system drives into California before slowly
opening up and moving through the Pacific Northwest into the early
part of the workweek. This will provide thunderstorm chances (30-
50%) on Friday across Central Washington and along the Blue
Mountains and east, staying more confined to the eastern mountains
Saturday through Tuesday as chances wane between 20-30%. The ECMWF
EFI highlights Friday`s storm threat as 50-80% of ensembles show
unclimatologically high amounts of CAPE extending from Deschutes
County through the John-Day/Ochoco Highlands and into the Northern
Blues/Wallowas. Temperatures will also be warming through the
period, especially Sunday onward as an upper level ridge builds off
the Pacific coast. High temperatures will be increasing from the
upper 70s to low 80s for lower elevations of the Basin on Friday
into the upper 80s to low 90s for lower elevations of the Basin on
Monday, which is about 10 degrees above normal. Conditions will also
be drying through the weekend and into next week with max RH`s
dropping into the low to mid 60% range Tuesday morning with min RH`s
around 25% Tuesday afternoon.
An upper level wave, that was previously a closed low pressure
system over Southern California, will begin pushing in from the
south on Thursday and continue to slowly track through our area
Friday before exiting to our northeast on Saturday. This will allow
for shower and thunderstorm potential beginning Friday morning and
extending through the day before focusing along the Blue Mountains
and east into Saturday morning. Pockets of MUCAPE values between 250-
750J/kg are present from Deschutes county through the John-
Day/Ochoco Highlands and into the eastern mountains with 0-6km shear
between 20-30kts. Heavy downpours will be possible with any
developing storm cells as precipitable water (PW) values are between
0.75-1.25", which is 150-200% above normal on Friday. These PW
values will be decreasing and closer to 100-120% above normal
starting Saturday as drier air moves into the region. Breezy
conditions will also ensue through the day on Friday, especially
across the Eastern Gorge, Lower Columbia Basin, and Kittitas Valley
as a pressure gradient of around 5mb will be present between
Portland and Spokane to allow for gusts of up to 35mph out of the
west-southwest, peaking Friday morning. Conditions will be drier on
Saturday as the wave continues to lift through the area and push
north late in the day into Sunday morning to allow for another
chance for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern mountains
(35-55%), John-Day/Ochoco Highlands (30-40%), and the Northern Blue
Mountain foothills (15-30%) before tapering off in the evening. An
upper level low pressure will be developing off the coast of
Southern California Saturday morning before moving inland Sunday
morning and stalling over Northern California on Monday. This will
allow for flow aloft to have more of a southeast component to advect
a drier and warmer air mass into the area to provide high
temperatures into the low 90s for areas of the Eastern Gorge and
Lower Columbia Basin on Sunday. An upper level ridge offshore of the
California closed-low feature builds on Sunday and infiltrates into
the Pacific Northwest on Monday, helping to further dry conditions
and bump temperatures up 3 to 5 degrees for lower elevations of the
Basin from Sunday to Monday. This continues into Tuesday until a
weak shortwave over the Yukon suppresses the ridge slightly to allow
for more northwest flow aloft and cooler conditions heading into the
midweek.
Guidance is in good agreement with the overall trend of an opening
wave passing through our area, a subsequent low pressure system to
our south, and an offshore upper level ridge, but differences arise
regarding the strength and timing of the low pressure system and
building upper level ridge into the early week. These discrepancies
are visualized via the 500mb EOF Patterns as a 40-50% ensemble
variance is present along with a dipole indicating the primary issue
is with the timing of the incoming low pressure system through the
weekend before turning to differences in ridge strength into the
early workweek. This would lead to a warmer and drier outcome with
the GFS versus the ECMWF, as the GFS pushes the upper level ridge
into our area much earlier on Monday then the ECMWF, which moves it
in Tuesday morning. The cluster phase space lends more confidence in
the ECMWF outcome of a later building ridge, which keeps the
potential for developing afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern mountains Sunday and Monday. This also provides
additional confidence in high temperatures breaking into the upper
80s to low 90s for lower elevations of the Basin over both days.
Cluster heights also lend additional confidence in the ECMWF
scenario with the majority of ensembles aligning better to a slower
building ridge. Thus, the NBM was utilized through the extended
period to provide an applicably weighted scenario of warming
temperatures through Monday and lingering storm chances into early
next week for the eastern mountains. 75
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected to persist
through the period. Late this afternoon convection in Central
Oregon has held south of BDN/RDM and confidence is moderate to
high it remains this way through sunset at which point any lingering
showers/T-storms in the region come to an end. Predominately
northerly winds follow this trend as well with gusts near 15-20
knots at BDN, RDM, ALW, and PDT decreasing overnight - otherwise
lighter winds all other sites. Another round of T-storms is
expected Wednesday afternoon with the best chances at BDN and RDM
out of all the TAF sites although confidence in exact placement
and timing is low. As a result, any mention of TS or VCTS
conditions were excluded from this round of TAFs but as
confidence increases these may be added in later updates. 99
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 57 92 62 87 / 0 0 10 20
ALW 60 95 65 90 / 0 0 0 20
PSC 60 98 67 93 / 0 0 0 10
YKM 58 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 10
HRI 59 97 65 93 / 0 0 0 10
ELN 55 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 53 87 56 83 / 0 20 20 20
LGD 57 88 60 84 / 0 20 20 40
GCD 54 87 56 83 / 10 40 40 50
DLS 59 97 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....75
AVIATION...99