Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
919 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 As post sunset continues, most of the convection will end before midnight across the CWA. Overnight lows look fine and only minor mods have been implemented this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Once again, we have a few afternoon showers and storms across the area within steep low-level lapse rates and weak instability, although basically no shear to speak of. RAP shows MLCAPE perhaps reaching 1000 J/KG this afternoon over the Coteau region, while also keeping DCAPE below 1000 J/KG. So, like the past several days, maybe some of these "stronger" cores put down a weak/modest outflow, but not expecting much more than that other than some very small hail potentially. For tonight, most of the diurnally driven convection will wane, but CAMs do suggest potential for continued activity along the weak cool/stationary front that will drift/backdoor from the east overnight. This front will be a focus for another chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A bit better instability looks to set up tomorrow with 1000-1500 J/KG developing across the eastern CWA, with some moisture pooling (low 60s dewpoints) near/along the surface boundary. Shear remains weak once again, but at least generally exists with perhaps around 20 to maybe 25 knots 0- 6km bulk shear across the eastern CWA. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 No notable changes showing up in model output for the extended forecast period, compared to 24 hours ago. Still expecting the upper level ridge over the region to build back to the west some Thursday and Thursday night, with weak northwesterly flow setting up over the CWA on Friday. There is supposed to be a shortwave aloft riding southeastward through this flow pattern Friday into Friday night, with perhaps another upper wave diving south through the region on Saturday. The upper ridge is forecast to shift back over the region heading into early next week. During the day on Thursday, the "cold front" that has backed its way westward into the CWA will continue to weaken, but could be aiding afternoon convective development as a source of weak low-level forcing, probably over the western half or western third of the CWA. Lately, with the lack of forcing/lift, it really hasn`t taken much to get afternoon, heat-of-the-day showers and thunderstorms to develop. Thursday afternoon is probably no different. On Friday, the initial mid-level shortwave set to move southeastward into the region, is still expected to drop a cold front down through the CWA during the day. Timing-wise, it looks as though the front passes through the majority of the CWA prior to peak-heating, so the potential for it to force convection is not the best. But, between the front`s forcing and the mid-level wave`s lift, certainly cannot rule some spotty shower activity during the first half of the day Friday. Also, right now, it`s possible there could actually be ~30kts of deep layer shear available mainly across the eastern half of forecast zones for the front to work with as it sweeps southward through the CWA. Precipitation chances on Saturday with a secondary upper wave in north-northwesterly flow may be a bit tougher to come by, with a more stable/drier airmass establishing over the CWA. Will have to monitor PoPs trends closely for Saturday. Again, behind the front, low level CAA and dry air advection should be at a premium from whenever on Friday (post-frontal) through Saturday, while surface high pressure sets up over the CWA Saturday and Sunday. Thinking Saturday and Sunday (and probably Monday as well) should be dry, comfortable early summer days coming up. As the ridge aloft builds back over the CWA next week, a low level return flow/WAA pressure pattern should take hold. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight regionwide. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1047 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Smoke will persist with some small improvement to visibility overnight. However, another plume of denser smoke is expected to arrive from Canada Wednesday. A few spotty showers can`t be ruled out across parts of central NY Wednesday afternoon and evening, but there is a better chance for showers Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1040 PM Update... The denser smoke may abate slightly overnight into early Wednesday morning. However the latest HRRR smoke guidance brings another denser/thicker smoke plume north to south through the area starting around or just after daybreak for CNY, then by late morning in NE PA. This high concentration of smoke is modeled to remain over the region through at least the evening hours on Wednesday. With the HRRR showing increasing near surface smoke, visibility and air quality is likely to be impacted once again...very similarly to what we saw today (Tuesday). Issued and SPS to cover this extensive smoke and haze potential. 615 PM Update... Made some adjustments to increase PoPs and chances for thunder across Oneida & Otsego counties as a round of thunderstorms pivots through this area into the evening hours. Otherwise, minor tweaks to the haze/smoke forecast through the day on Wednesday. The smoke looks to be widespread and thick again most of, if not the whole day on Wednesday areawide. Therefore, blended in some of the NBM 25th percentile for the forecast high temperatures, which nudged it down another degree or so. 330 PM Update... Smoke remains widespread across the region. The area of denser smoke, and lower visibilities, has recently pushed into the Scranton/WB area. Satellite imagery shows something of a boundary passing through the Thruway corridor, with somewhat thinner smoke to its north. This may bring some improvement to Central NY over the next few hours. The HRRR suggests surface smoke will become thinner overnight, but another plume of dense smoke will push into the area tomorrow, somewhat favoring the western half of the area. This all depends on fire behavior in Canada, and satellite imagery shows dozens of plumes putting up plenty of smoke this afternoon, with gusty winds and very dry conditions favorable for extreme fire behavior. In other words, there`s not much reason to disagree with the HRRR near-surface smoke fields. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have mainly been over eastern NY this afternoon, but there`s still a slight chance for a pop- up storm over the Catskills/Poconos, and Susquehanna headwaters regions through early evening. An upper low over the Maritimes will retrograde west towards Maine overnight, keeping the north winds in place through tomorrow. Additional isolated showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon, mainly across northern areas of the CWA. Max Temperature forecasts were a bust for today, thanks to the smoke being so dense. Pulled temps down a few degrees for tomorrow, especially near and west of I-81 where the smoke is expected to be most dense. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 3:30 PM Update... The aforementioned upper-level low pressure area will continue to be a main feature for the CWA Thursday through Friday night, keeping a cool, north-northwesterly flow in place. With the flow out of the north, smoke from the Canadian wildfires may still be noticeable. The upper low will keep conditions unsettled with spotty showers through Friday with most of the activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Instability is pretty limited, 500 J/KG or less, so any thunderstorm looks to be isolated. As mentioned earlier this morning, the NBM seems to be loading in on the high side for PoPs through Friday evening, so they have been lowered a bit. Highs each afternoon will be mainly in the 60s, and overnight lows falling back into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 3:30 PM Update... The upper low will lift off to the northeast during the day Saturday and weak ridging will build in briefly. There can still be a stray shower Saturday as the low pulls away, especially over eastern parts of the CWA. Afternoon high temperatures will start to moderate, making a returning to the 70s. Sunday into Monday an upper-level low will drop southward over the Great Lakes region along with a developing surface low. This feature will slowly push eastward through early next week, and despite some differences in model timing and rain intensity, there will be the chance for showers through Sunday through Tuesday along with a spotty thunderstorm. As seen in the short term, PoPs were lowered about during this period. High temperatures through the first half of the week will be mostly in the 70s. Overnight lows will not be quite as chilly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 740 pm update... Smoke from wildfires in Ontario and Quebec will continue to affect the region through the next 24 hours. Most sites have IFR vsbys now which should slowly improve tonight to MVFR and possibly VFR late tonight. Another batch of smoke will move in Wednesday morning with at least MVFR vsbys. SYR, ITH, ELM have the best chance of afternoon IFR vsbys. Ceilings have improved to VFR which should continue through Wednesday. SYR/RME will have the most clouds and the lowest. Clearing should occur tonight for south central NY and AVP. NW winds at 5 to 10 kts will become light and variable this evening and continue until sunrise. Wednesday late morning into evening winds will be northwest at 10 kts with gusts to 20. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday...Mostly VFR; Chance for showers each day, which may lead to brief restrictions. Saturday...VFR conditions expected. Sunday...possible restrictions in rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warning is in effect for Northeast Pennsylvania through 8 PM today, due to combination of low relative humidity, gusty winds, and even possible isolated dry thunderstorms. Humidity will not reach critical levels for the Leatherstocking Fire Weather Zone in New York, yet conditions will still be fire weather sensitive overall where fuels are very dry, considering gusty northwest wind and still fairly low humidity. Looking ahead, on Wednesday, relative humidity values look slightly higher along with slightly lower winds. However, conditions remain dry. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MJM/MPH SHORT TERM...DK/MPH LONG TERM...DK/MPH AVIATION...TAC FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1016 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A sprawling upper-level low will keep cooler and showery conditions in place through the end of the work week. A gradual warming trend is expected going into the weekend, and diurnal showers are possible on most days this week. Smoke from wildfires to our north remains a concern, and Air Quality Alerts remain in place for portions of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1009 PM EDT Tuesday...No changes were needed with this update. Scattered/numerous showers continue across the region, with the most consistent activity having funneled down the Champlain Valley over the past couple of hours. Coverage should wane a bit overnight, with showers lingering longest across northeast VT, closest to the upper low and the influx of moisture. Cloud cover will remain ample, and don`t expect temperatures to fall too much overnight; lows in the mid 40s to low 50s can be expected. Smoke continues to blanket much of the area, but the latest HRRR guidance has kept with the idea of much of this shunting off to our west and south after midnight. The forecast has this all pretty well covered, so only changes with this update were some minor tweaks to temps/dewpoints to blend in the latest observational trends. Previous discussion...Air Quality Alerts remain in place for northern NY through midnight and for Vermont through 9 AM Wednesday as smoke from fires in Quebec continues to move into our area. For additional information on air quality conditions, please visit the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation website at https:/ or the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources website at https:/ quality/local- air-quality- forecasts. Air quality is expected to improve tonight, especially in areas that see rain today, but with large fires remaining to our north and continued northerly wind direction we can`t rule out additional smoky conditions into tomorrow. Our area will remain under the influence of a sprawling upper- level low centered just to our east, keeping cooler and unsettled weather in place for the next few days. As cooler upper-level air is pulled southward over our forecast area today, mid-level lapse rates have steepened to around 7-8 deg C/km as per latest mesoanalysis. Steepest lapse rates are observed over our NY zones and into portions of western Vermont, which lines up with area of greatest shower/thunderstorm coverage this afternoon into this evening. Wet Bulb Zero heights around 5-6 kft support the idea of small hail/graupel within any convective showers/thunderstorms. Outside of any small hail however, no severe weather expected today given limited shear. As we head into the overnight hours, we`ll lose our diurnal instability and coverage of thunderstorms should wane in coverage. However, we will see increasing moisture rotating into our area from the north/northeast around the upper low, which will support the idea of increasing mid-level cloud cover overnight and potentially a lingering shower or two. This cloud deck is visible on satellite imagery over eastern Quebec, poised to move into our area overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. For Wednesday, very little change in the overall pattern with the upper-level low still in control. Main difference will be the location of the upper-level low, which will retrograde slightly further west and become centered over our forecast area by Wednesday night. Surface temperatures on Wednesday will be quite cool under the low, with highs only forecast in the upper 50s for eastern VT, around 60 in the Champlain Valley, and in the mid 50s to mid 60s in northern NY. Some diurnal showers are again expected during the afternoon, though cooler sfc temps and less instability will limit shower coverage to less than what we are seeing today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 343 PM EDT Tuesday...A closed upper low across the Canadian Maritimes will continue to be the main weather feature for the rest of the work week. This system will result in continued chances of showers, particularly in the afternoon hours. Precipitation chances greatly decrease after sunset, however showers cannot be entirely ruled out. Temperatures will be cooler than normal, with highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Overnight lows will also be seasonably cool, with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 343 PM EDT Tuesday...Showery weather can be expected to continue for most of the extended forecast period. The upper low located over the Canadian Maritimes and New England is expected to slowly break down as we head into the weekend, however models have continued to slow down and struggle with how this low devolves. Some dry conditions are possible Saturday night into Sunday as some brief ridging build in. Unfortunately, another closed low developing early next week over the Great Lakes a moving over the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast, which would continue to bring showery conditions to the region. However given the uncertainty of model guidance at this time, the precipitation forecast for next week are likely to change. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, the likelihood of any severe weather is quite low through this period. Temperatures will slowly warm up and become rather seasonable for the weekend and stick around into next week. Daytime highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s on Saturday, warming up to the high 80s come next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00z Thursday...A complex and busy TAF period over the next 24 hours, currently having showers move across the forecast area, bringing visibilities to as low as 2-4 SM. These showers and their associated lowered vis should continue for the next few hours, particularly across the Champlain Valley (KBTV, KPBG, KRUT) where showers are being funneled southward. As showers die out tonight, around 02Z-06Z Wednesday, we will still have haze from Canada wildfire smoke restricting vis around 4-6 SM. KMSS could also have some LLWS in addition to this haze and potential scattered showers through around 09Z Wednesday. This smoke should be clearing/mixing out of the entire forecast area around 06-12Z Wednesday, allowing for increased vis, but we won`t be out of the woods quite yet as cigs are forecast to drop to MVFR levels around the same time or shortly after, depending on the site due to low pressure spiraling into our forecast area and bringing with it lower clouds and more showers, which could also potentially limit vis. More to come on that in subsequent TAF packages as details become clearer. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Duell/Hastings SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Storm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A period of more unsettled weather will continue this week with daily chances for some showers and a few thunderstorms, with the best chances for showers across the eastern portions of the region. Smoky skies and haze from the wildfires across eastern Canada will likely persist across the entire region through the end of the week. Cooler than normal temperatures can be expected the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Late this evening, convection east of Lake Ontario has pretty much ended. There`s a small chance of a few showers overnight, but lower PoPs considerably east of Lake Ontario. Elsewhere will remain rain- free overnight. Lows will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. The upper low will retrograde a bit into northern New England Wednesday and Wednesday night. As has been the case the last couple of days, the best chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be across far eastern portions of the area, although an isolated shower can not be completely ruled out farther to the west. Quebec wildfire smoke continues to impact the region. The region has seen a plume of heavier smoke today, reducing visibility to below 3 miles at times. Satellite imagery and latest HRRR smoke products showing a general thinning to the incoming smoke this evening. However, this same modeled smoke product suggesting another round of potentially thick smoke will again spread into the region late tonight and continue through much of the day Wednesday and even into Wednesday night. This will lead to another day of smoke filled skies and lower visibilities due to smoke/haze. This model is also suggesting Wednesday could be the most significant day as far as density of smoke is concerned. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low will continue to remain nearly stationary over northern New England through the short term period. Instability and moisture profiles look a little better, so coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be a bit more expansive with portions of the Southern Tier, Finger lakes as well as the North Country having a shot at some scattered diurnally driven convection. The core of the coolest air will move into the area Thursday, resulting in the coolest day of the week. Daytime highs will be some 10-15 degrees below average, with temperatures struggling to reach 60 across the inland higher terrain, with lower to mid 60s elsewhere. With little change in our general wind flow, smoke issues may still be a concern. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Elongated upper level low will still be draped from the Canadian Maritimes to the mid-Atlantic region on Friday...with our region remaining under the western half of its circulation. Daytime heating of the cooler airmass attendant to the upper low will allow for another round of diurnally-driven showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to develop from the interior sections of the Southern Tier northeastward to the North Country on Friday...with these again predominantly scattered and associated rainfall amounts generally light. Diminishing heating/instability will then allow for a return to mainly dry weather Friday night. Temps through Friday night will remain a bit below normal for the first third of June...with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s on Friday followed by lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s Friday night. On Saturday the persistent upper level low will finally depart off to our east...with weak shortwave ridging briefly building in aloft between this system and the next shortwave trough dropping from central Canada to the upper Great Lakes. This will result in a mainly dry day for most areas...though the North Country and Saint Lawrence Valley could still see a few more widely scattered showers as one final shortwave impulse dives around the backside of the departing upper low. Otherwise...we should see a warmer day with rising heights/temperatures aloft allowing surface temps to climb back to the mid to upper 70s south of Lake Ontario...and to the upper 60s to mid 70s across the North Country. After that...the guidance suite continues to suggest that the aforementioned shortwave trough will close off into yet another upper level low over the central/upper Great Lakes between later Saturday night and Sunday...with this feature then slowly meandering its way somewhere across the Ohio Valley and/or the lower Great Lakes through the first part of next week. Depending upon the ultimate track of this could bring us some much-needed rainfall or leave us mainly dry...and at this juncture it`s still hard to say which of these scenarios is more likely given the variance in both track and timing exhibited by the medium range guidance suite over the last 24-36 hours. With this in mind...for now have just indicated general chance PoPs in the forecast for later Saturday night/Sunday on through the end of the period. Otherwise temperatures for this time frame look to be right around normal for mid-June...with daily highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s and nightly lows ranging through the 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wildfire smoke continues to be the main concern for aviation. This has lowered visibility to 2-5SM at times today, and many stations reported `cloud bases` around 4k feet due to the smoke. Conditions have improved some this evening. However, smoke is likely to increase again late tonight and Wednesday with widespread MVFR vsby and localized vsby less than 2SM possible. Scattered showers possible east of Lake Ontario near KART Wednesday afternoon. The rest of the area will remain rain-free with the smoke likely causing many stations to report ceilings around 4k feet. Outlook... Wednesday night...Possible MVFR visibility restrictions from smoke and haze. Chance of showers. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers each day. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers. && .MARINE... Mainly northerly component winds will prevail through the rest of the week. At this time, conditions look to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds, but it will be choppy at times with waves peaking at 2-3 feet. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA SHORT TERM...JM/TMA LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Apffel/TMA MARINE...Apffel/JLA/TMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
922 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the region tonight and persist through the first half of the weekend. A cold front will move southeast across the local area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Update... The near-term forecast remains valid per latest trends in observations and model guidance. NW`erly to N`erly flow aloft will continue to transport smoke over our CWA from central ON and vicinity through tonight. Given the loss of daytime heating and associated convective mixing of the boundary layer, the bulk of the smoke should remain aloft over our region. Near- surface smoke concentration forecasts from the several most- recent runs of the HRRR support this expectation. However, predominantly N`erly surface winds are expected from central ON to our CWA through tonight. Thus, cannot rule-out pockets of greater smoke concentration at/near the surface through daybreak Wednesday. Previous Discussion... High pressure will build over the region tonight through the near term period. Although dry weather is expected, there are two items of concern: smoke/haze and an elevated fire risk. Much of the area has been reporting haze with reduced visibility and a broken/overcast cloud deck, which is thanks to smoke moving across the area from wildfires over Quebec. Expect the smoke to generally push south of the area after sunset this evening, however another batch of smoke will most likely move into the eastern half of the area later tonight as a vort max pushes south across the area. This smoke is expected to linger across the area into Wednesday, so another hazy day is likely. Fire weather conditions will be a bit more favorable on Wednesday with minimum RH values of 20 to 30% anticipated across most of the area during Wednesday afternoon. Similar to today, smoke/opaque cloud cover may limit daytime heating and reduce the fire weather risk, but it will be drier with breezy winds so will need to monitor over the next 12-18 hours. SPC places the northern 2/3 of the CWA in an elevated fire weather outlook area. Low temps tonight and Wednesday night will fall into the mid to upper 40s to lower 50s with the warmest temps forecast along the lakeshore. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... More of the same cool, mostly dry, and smoky weather will continue Thursday and Friday as an amplified pattern remains in place characterized by a broad mid/upper ridge over the Rockies and Plains and a large closed mid/upper low over the NE CONUS. This will keep a northerly flow of cool air across the region, with smoke from numerous wildfires in Ontario and Quebec streaming down across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Smoke plume forecasts from the HREF suggest that some of the thickest smoke may occur around Thursday morning, so visibilities below 5 miles and an overall hazy look to the sky will continue to be a problem at times. This will also reduce air quality. Cannot rule out a few showers in NW PA and far NE Ohio Thursday through Friday, especially with daytime heating, as mid-level moisture rotates around the west side of the mid/upper low, but the dry low-level airmass will keep these isolated, so kept PoPs below the blended forecasts. Highs Thursday and Friday will only reach the upper 60s/low 70s in NW PA and most of NE Ohio, with low/mid 70s in north central and NW Ohio. Lows will dip into the upper 40s/low 50s Thursday night and low/mid 50s Friday night, with some upper 40s continuing in far NE Ohio and NW PA Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Still looks like the best chance for rain that we have had in 3 weeks will come this weekend. The old mid/upper low over the NE CONUS will exit Saturday ahead of a strong shortwave trough diving into the Upper Midwest. Slight height rises and warm air advection ahead of this shortwave will boost highs into the upper 70s/low 80s Saturday, and the low-level flow turning more SW should also shunt some of the wildfire smoke out of the area. Deterministic guidance and the model blend wants to develop showers well ahead of the front for Saturday, but dew points will struggle to rise much out of the 40s due to the very dry ground, and the best forcing holds off until late Saturday night and Sunday, so only brought in slight chance PoPs for NW Ohio Saturday afternoon. As the aforementioned mid/upper shortwave digs into the western Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, an associated cold front will slowly sag toward the region. The right entrance region of the associated jet may develop a weak surface low along the frontal boundary, and this would be the best hope for widespread rain, but it would also slow down the front and best rain chances until later Sunday and Sunday night. Guidance is indeed trending slower, although there is still uncertainty, with the GFS being the most progressive. For this forecast, kept the blend which has chance PoPs Saturday night increasing to likely Sunday afternoon, but the best rain may arrive Sunday evening into Sunday night if trends continue. Scattered showers will then linger Monday through Tuesday as the trough looks to evolve into a cut off low across the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. This will keep elevated moisture around with showers blossoming during daytime heating. Despite these better rain chances, QPF may stay until 1 inch for most areas between Sunday and Tuesday since model guidance tends to over-forecast dew points in drought situations. So this rain will not be a drought buster; it will just temporarily slow down the developing drought. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Primarily VFR and fair weather are expected through 00Z/Thurs as a surface high pressure ridge centered near Hudson Bay builds into our area. Northwesterly to northeasterly regional surface winds around 5 to 10 knots likely persist. Aloft, cyclonic and predominantly northwesterly to northerly flow is forecast to persist. This flow should continue to transport variable amounts of smoke over our area from wildfires in southern QC and especially central ON. The smoke should primarily be confined in a layer from ~5kft to ~30kft above MSL. However, diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer may be deep enough to mix-down some smoke and reduce surface visibility to MVFR between ~15Z/Wed and ~00Z/Thurs. Confidence in surface visibility being reduced to MVFR is low, though. Of note, cirriform cloud cover ahead of a disturbance aloft will likely exit our region generally to the south by 06Z/Wed. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic rain showers and thunderstorms this Thursday through weekend. && .MARINE... N winds will increase to 15-20 knots on the western and central basins of Lake Erie behind a cold front tonight building waves to 2 to 5 feet, so expanded the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement to Ottawa county for these winds, waves, and risk of rip currents. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue offshore of Lake County. Otherwise, N winds will quickly decrease to 5-10 knots Wednesday before briefly increasing to 15-20 knots again Wednesday night. NNW winds of 10-15 knots are then expected Thursday decreasing to 5-10 knots by Friday. Winds then become SW at 10-15 knots by Saturday before turning E at 10-15 knots Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ007- 009>011. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ143>146. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Jaszka/Maines SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Garuckas
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1115 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and breezy conditions will be favorable for dangerous wildfire spread through the evening, mainly across easter PA. Smoke from wildfires in Quebec, Canada will result in hazy skies and poor/unhealthy air quality today. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler into late week with an increased risk of scattered rain showers Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Robust downdraft CAPES ~1000 J/kg fueling gusty shra and isold tsra late this afternoon and early evening over my southeast. Sporadic wind damage reports fielded since early to mid afternoon (a Lewistown damage report from 1:30 pm trickled in early this evening). This as a short wave pushes a moisture challenged cold front through the area this evening. Dewpoints are impressively falling into the 20s behind the front, almost unheard of for June in central PA. Activity will exit my southeast in the next hour, giving way to mainly clear and chilly night, with widespread mins in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Day shift Wednesday will touch base with DEP Harrisburg regarding Air Quality over the rest of central PA (outside of the Lower Susq AQA region), given extensive impact from haze and smoke from Canadian wildfires in these areas. Similar wx setup expected for Wednesday with aforementioned upper trough expanding over New England and the Mid Atlantic states. Airmass remains quite dry for this time of year and expect any diurnal convection to remain spotty to isolated at best. MaxTs trend a few to several degrees cooler vs. Tuesday with daytime highs AOB daily climo. Smoke and haze issued will also likely to continue to reduce visibility and air quality. Fire weather risk remains elevated given ongoing abnormally dry to moderate drought, low RH and breezy conditions. SPC has outlined an elevated risk on the Day 2 fire weather outlook. Another mainly clear and cool night with lows in the 40-50F range. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The various ensemble prediction systems remain consistent in their depiction of the large-scale pattern heading into the weekend and early next week. The pattern will consist of a low amplitude upper trough axis across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS, with an upper ridge axis holding firm over the middle of the CONUS and central Canada. Resultant NW flow aloft will keep any sustained heat well west of the Commonwealth, with a progressive surface cold front likely to cross the region Sunday or Monday. However, transition from current blocking pattern is still not fully certain, and so what we can say for sure is that Sunday into Monday may present the best CHANCE of rain we`ll see for the next week, but it`s far from certain at this early time. As for the daily sensible weather, Saturday continues to look mainly dry. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Sunday, tied to the aforementioned cold front. Shower chances may linger into Monday, depending on the progression of the frontal zone. Friday`s highs in the 70s, will warm into the mid 70s-mid 80s over the weekend, before edging downward into the 70s range again on Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface ridging building into the state will bring dry weather and diminishing wind overnight. However, smoke from wildfires over Quebec will continue to affect the region. Visibilities are in the 3-5sm range at 03Z over roughly the northeast half of PA and the latest run of the RAP Smoke model suggests little change overnight. A cold front will sweep south across the region Wednesday, perhaps producing a shower in a few spots. However, the main story will continue to be visibility reductions from smoke. The RAP Smoke models suggests vsbys should start the day in the 5-10sm range, then fall by afternoon as thicker smoke drifts into the state from the north. MVFR conditions during the PM hours appear likely, with even IFR possible over northern PA. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Isold PM tsra. Sat-Sun...No sig wx expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated risk to critical fire weather conditions expected late this morning through the evening across portions of east-central PA. As highlighted in the near term section, there is the very rare potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across central PA. Parched soils and dry fuels combined with wind conditions are signaling potential Red Flag conditions. Similar risks will exist tomorrow with little change in the pattern. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Gartner NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Gartner SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Jurewicz/DeVoir AVIATION...Fitzgerald FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
706 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Forecast Impacts for the week: ...Scat showers/storms into tonight ...Backdoor front exits west Thursday morning ...Sct storms Sat/cooler and dry Sun >> Tue Confidence Short Term: Medium to High Weak synoptic pattern continues over the region. Weak low over southern Minnesota with attendant troughs/backdoor cold front sliding toward Iowa this morning has created some showers/storms over the northeast and in Wisconsin north to Minnesota. Dewpoints over the area remain in the lower 60s and will eventually lower once the backdoor front exits the west of our forecast area by Thursday morning. The HRRR and the synoptic models both show the weak trough/front will be the focal point of another round of scattered showers/storms into the evening hours;mainly diurnally driven with expected weakening during the overnight. With no organized upper level support, any cells will likely outflow and propagate more development to the south/southwest with time. As instability wanes into the late evening, strength and perhaps coverage as well, should diminish both. Though forcing aloft and at the surface are relatively weak, GFS forecast PWATs this afternoon and evening along the boundary suggest a decent 1.5 to 1.75 corridor focused along the westward propagating boundary. HRRR bufkit soundings are not too impressive, but portions of northern Iowa nearer MCW are suggesting a bit more development between 5 and 7 pm, back toward US20 corridor during this time. This might lead to a few storms with potential wind gusts of 45 mph as outflow overtakes the convective updraft and a quick 1 or more inches of rainfall in a quick, heavy downpour. Farther south and southeast, soundings are not as impressive. Tonight with the potential for some scattered showers/storms and boundary still edging west to about I35 by 12z, lows will be cooler in the northeast and still quite mild from central to western areas; ranging from around 60 northeast to the mid 60s central to west. Showers will still be possible through the morning and afternoon tomorrow, with the higher chances focusing over areas west of I35 closer to US 71 by afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be trending lower as clouds and the cooler air builds west. Afternoon readings will reach the upper 70s northeast to the lower to mid 80s in the west. Tomorrow night the continued westward shift of the boundary will push the shower chances farther west and overnight lows cooler as well. East to northeast areas will lower to the lower 50s with upper 50s to 60 west. && .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Confidence: Medium to High High pressure will eventually shut down any chances for precipitation by Thursday morning and continue into Friday afternoon/early evening. Thursday will be another quiet day with a fair amount of sunshine and quiet conditions. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The high will begin drift southeast of the region Friday with increasing warmth and return of low level moisture as the previous ribbon of moisture west of Iowa drifts back into the area and once again establishes itself by Friday night into Saturday. Medium range models continue to advertise a weak front dropping south into the area on Saturday, moving south of the area by 12z Sunday. The early weekend system has a slightly stronger wind field just trailing the boundary as it moves south during the day and evening. Sufficient instability and weak shear may be enough for a few stronger storms as the boundary tracks over the area. Similar to this afternoon through tomorrow, PWATs again pool along the boundary to 1.5 to 1.75 inches. This may lead to a few storms that produce brief heavy downpours and gusty winds once again during the afternoon/evening hours mainly. The front is expected to push south of the region by 12z Sunday with much cooler conditions in the region through the end of the period. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/ Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across some TAF sites this evening. Currently have mentions of VCTS over KALO, KDSM and KOTM for the early TAF period, but expect storms to diminish in coverage as the evening progresses. Ceilings expected to remain VFR, but a brief drop to MVFR in association with a storm is possible. Few gusty winds are possible with storms but generally light and variable winds expected overnight. Additional scattered showers and storms likely to form early Wednesday into Wednesday afternoon. No mentions at this time due to low confidence in direct impact to TAF sites given scattered coverage of storms. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...Castillo/KCM
For this long-term forecast discussion, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty with regard to the overall weather pattern and the
resulting weather impacts we will observe. While there will still be a chance for some strong/severe thunderstorms in the area this weekend and into next week, this depends highly on the upper level disturbances and timing and final positioning of a cold front that will move through. Beginning with Saturday, a shortwave trough should be sliding south to southeast across the northern Plains. This will force a cold front south, and will likely enter our area Saturday afternoon to evening although timing remains quite uncertain with a variety of forecast guidance solutions existing. As for the environment ahead of the front, there appears to be sufficient instability for storms with SBCape of 1000-2500 j/kg (quite the spread again from guidance, but this is likely a result of the frontal timing differences) and lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/km. However, along with the past few weeks of potential severe weather, shear is again the limiting factor with 0-6 km bulk shear ranging from 5 to 20 kts. PWATs remain quite substantial with readings approaching 1.30 inches, well above the 90th percentile. It`s possible the front causes storms to move along, but as it stands now, it seems the more pertinent threat will be heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially since the best chances for rain are currently expected to like along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Severe weather remains possible, though outside of a couple lower end hail and wind reports, I wouldn`t anticipate much. For Sunday, the cold front should have pushed completely through the forecast area. This should result in quite a pleasant day for many locations. In fact, most of the area will probably be precipitation- free as a surface high briefly influences the area. That being said, I won`t rule out precipitation completely as current indications are that the front will stall out somewhere just east of the Colorado Front Range. An afternoon disturbance is expected to eject east over the Plains during the afternoon ahead of a deepening western US low, so should see some storms over the High Plains. Most likely, the storms will form west of the forecast area and then move east, perhaps traversing the High Plains depending on the environment. I think it would be a better bet that storms would enter eastern Colorado and struggle moving across the Colorado border given the influence of surface high pressure and weakly unstable and cooler environment. Going into next week, an upper level disturbance positioned in the southwestern United States should start to influence our weather. As it approaches, I would anticipate lead shortwave troughs to bring the possibility of severe thunderstorm development. However, compared to recent forecast runs, the positioning of this cold front will be absolutely key to the forecast. Currently, it seems as though there should be some return flow as a surface low deepens east of the Colorado Front Range, and it also appears that we may see the cold front lift into the region as a warm front. Further, a dryline should sharpen across the High Plains both Monday and Tuesday. However, the main issue against severe weather remains wind shear, and it does seem like models have shifted the increased winds aloft further south. If this were to happen, then once again the NWS Goodland forecast area will find ourselves in a weakly sheared environment which would not be terribly conducive for severe weather, and definitely not conducive to a potential outbreak. Those conditions should be confined further south, over the southern Great Plains. For now, the main message about the forecast for next week is to stay tuned as there will be potential for severe storms although uncertainty and the current setup do not support widespread severe storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 522 PM MDT Tue Jun 6 2023 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period beginning with southerly winds around 10 kts that become variable around 6 kts at 03Z. By 18Z, KGLD winds look to become southeasterly around 10 kts. KMCK...VFR conditions are also expected at KMCK throughout the entire 00Z TAF period with variable winds around 6 kts forecasted during the period. The RAP model shows some chances for low clouds/fog at both terminals around 12Z, but low confidence in this occurring as no other models forecast this happening in their latest runs. Will monitor in case other models pick this up, but not anticipating it to affect flight categories if it does occur. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...076
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
925 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A cold front had shifted well south of the forecast early this afternoon, and Hudson Bay high pressure was building into northern WI. Smoky conditions had improved over GRB CWA, at least at the surface, where all observing sites were reporting visibilities in the 7-10SM range. Partly sunny skies were observed, along with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s. Dry weather will prevail tonight and Wednesday, with skies becoming mostly clear later tonight. After a bit of a reprieve today, an elevated layer of smoke is expected to arrive in NE WI overnight, then overspread the rest of the forecast area on Wednesday. There are indications that near-surface smoke may return to parts of northern WI Wednesday afternoon. A very dry air mass and daytime mixing will cause dew points and relative humidities to crash Wednesday afternoon. Given the dry conditions of the past two weeks and relative humidities dropping into the 15 to 25 percent range, there will continued concern for wildfires, especially in the sandy soil regions of northern WI. Lows tonight are expected to mainly be in the 40s across the north, and around 50 in central and east central Wisconsin. Highs on Wednesday should be in the 70s, with some 60s near Lake Michigan. .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 The main forecast concern will be precipitation chances, especially Friday night into Saturday. For much of the work week, the forecast area will have northerly flow aloft on the east side of a high amplitude upper level ridge, with Canadian high pressure at the surface. Dry and comfortable conditions, including low afternoon relative humidity, can be expected through at least Thursday night. High temperatures will generally range from 75 to 80 degrees, except near Lake Michigan, where persistent NE winds will keep temperatures cooler. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and lower 50s, though the colder spots in northern WI will likely drop into the 30s early Thursday morning. Will need to monitor for possible frost headlines then. Temperatures will increase a bit by Friday, as warmer air pushes into the region ahead of a cold front. This will be short-lived, as the cold front is forecast to move through Friday night into Saturday. The frontal passage and associated short-wave trough will offer the best possibility for precipitation during the extended forecast period. The best chance should occur over C/EC WI Saturday afternoon, as instability increases to around 1000 j/kg and PWATS increase to 1-1.4 inches in the vicinity of the front, and the RRQ of an upper level jet passes through. With deep layer shear of 25 to 35 knots anticipated, we will need to monitor the potential for a few strong storms as well. Most of the precipitation should shift south of the region Saturday night. There is some uncertainty with the forecast for the end of the weekend into early next week. Models all close off an upper low over the western Great Lakes on Sunday, but the ECMWF is slower than the GEM/GFS to shift it to the east. Depending on the position/movement of the upper low, precipitation chances may need to be increased, temperatures lowered several degrees, and winds increased at times. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 925 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Stratocumulus around 5000-6000 feet will continue fade/exit late this evening across mainly central WI, with other higher mid and upper clouds over the entire area. These clouds will slowly exit from northeast to southwest overnight. A sprinkle could clip AUW/CWA later tonight, but will have no impact to ceilings. East to northeast winds will continue, remaining light tonight then increase on Wednesday, gusting up 12-22 kts, highest in the Fox Valley and lake shore. While a little smoke remains aloft late this evening, a thicker area is lurking over Lake Superior and Ontario, seen nicely on the GOES visible imagery (plus you can see some very large fires raging in eastern Ontario and western Quebec). RAP/HRRR don`t fully agree on where the area of smoke will go, but RAP seems to have a better handle on things (likely do to a bigger domain which captures more of the current smoke), so will follow it. This brings the thicker smoke back across most of the area into Wednesday. It looks to stay mainly aloft, creating hazy skies, but little impact in surface conditions (VSBYs) is expected for this TAF period. While a 6SM is possible where the smoke is the thickest, not much upstream support for the smoke making it down to the surface so will keep P6SM for all sites. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Bersch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1109 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1103 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 With the continued decrease in winds, conditions have fallen below hazardous levels for the nearshore/lakeshore zones. We have allowed for the Beach Hazards and Small Craft Advisories to expire. UPDATE Issued at 912 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 The temperature has started to decrease and that has supported an increase in the humidity levels. Also the winds have decreased. As a result we allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire. We did bump up the cloud cover for tonight. The smoke was obscuring the sky and that will likely persist through the night with a north to northeast flow persisting. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Fire Weather concerns remain very high for this time of year, and Wednesday`s weather is a little more concerning than today. More information in the Fire Weather section. Patchy cirrostratus clouds have reduced the depth of dry air mixing today and relative humidity has been on the higher side of forecast. A slight haze in the air with air quality at Moderate to Unhealthy- For-Sensitive-Groups categories for particulates has been most prevalent in southern portions of Lower Michigan. This is lingering forest fire smoke from Quebec that has blanketed much of the region over the past few days. It should gradually move out of here as winds from the north bring in somewhat cleaner air but also drier air. There will continue to be a layer of moderate amounts of smoke aloft in the mid-levels through tomorrow, which is being channeled in from fires in Northwest Canada according to the RAP-Smoke. The RAP-Smoke also suggests that if smoke produced in northwest Quebec today is substantial, near-surface smoke may intrude into parts of the state tomorrow afternoon/evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 There`s finally some hope for rain in the long term period, although probably not enough to make a significant dent in the ongoing drought conditions. Thursday and Friday remain dry as northerly flow with dew points in the 30s continues on the wrn side of the New England upper low. This pattern keeps the fire weather concerns high, especially on Thursday when wind speeds are still somewhat elevated. The chance for showers commences on Saturday as a sfc cold front and shortwave within the northwest flow aloft drop toward the area. Southwest flow develops ahead of these features and sends PWATs to closer to normal values around one or more inch by Saturday night. A better chance of rain comes on Sunday when the sfc front stalls overhead and an upper low closes off over the nrn GrtLks Rgn. The closed upper low is shown to drift slowly south early next week keeping daily rain chances alive, however fcst confidence is low regarding the daily position of the low. Lobes of vorticity rotating around the upper low should result in waves/rounds of scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms continuing on Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble QPF spread is significant for Saturday through Tuesday but the mean during this time is over a half inch for much of the area. There`s even a few members which produce over two inches of rain, but that`s a very low probability scenario. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 726 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Low level moisture will continue to be limited through the period. Thus the risk for fog or sub VFR cloud bases is low. However, the smoke from the Canadian wildfires could lower the visibilities slightly. We were not confident enough on its occurrence at the surface to add it to the forecast at this time. A general north to northeast flow will prevail and it will become gusty as temperatures warm up on Wednesday. Close to the Lake Michigan shoreline an onshore wind will setup during the day on Wednesday, impacting KMKG as the lake breeze moves slightly inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 So far the buoys and wind sensors in the marine environment are not verifying the Beach Hazard and Small Craft Advisory that is in effect. However the latest HRRR is still forecasting 20 kt north- northwest winds just offshore at 21Z, so will keep the marine headlines going. The situation on Wednesday and Thursday is similar with guidance showing a period of stronger 20-25 kt NNW winds developing for the afternoon and evening hours. Lighter winds are expected over Lk MI on Friday and Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Fire weather concerns approaching Red Flag Warning conditions will remain likely through at least Thursday. The fuel conditions in the dry northern conifer forests north of Newaygo/Clare are of most concern. Farther south, fires can still occur in fields and hardwoods, but it may take stronger winds there for fire spread to become overwhelming. Wednesday looks a little cooler but sunnier, drier, and slightly more windy than Tuesday with gusts at 20 feet more likely to exceed 15 mph, so another Red Flag Warning may be needed. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJS SHORT TERM...CAS LONG TERM...Meade AVIATION...MJS FIRE WEATHER...CAS MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
942 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure to the southeast will usher in even warmer temperatures for Wednesday ahead of a cold front dropping southward. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. After a brief cooldown Thursday as high pressure settles in, temperatures will return to near and above normal through the weekend as the high shifts offshore. The next cold front should bring increased rain chances for early next week. && .UPDATE... Areas of showers and thunderstorms remain somewhat erratic in coverage this late evening probably due in part to numerous outflow boundaries generated by earlier activity and inverted v signatures. I did adjust pops a bit southward outside of the current activity in Pender County but this short line may become enhanced near Cape Fear in a few hours via the latest high resolution guidance. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface boundary location was evident in visible satellite imagery this afternoon, with cumulus development generally south of a line from RAH to CLT. Clustering along the sea breeze may lead to some light showers initially developing there through the late afternoon. HRRR is still highlighting potential development of some thunderstorms this evening across portions of the Pee Dee including Darlington, Florence and Williamsburg counties. Am capping PoP at 20- 30% for now, based on the slow development of the Cu field. The slow- moving remnant frontal boundary will meander into the northern CWA through early Wednesday, before shortwave energy aloft pushes a second front through to Georgetown by early Wednesday evening. A relative minimum in precipitable water (<1") should limit shower/tstm development ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, so will once again keep PoPs capped at 20-30%. Temps will be close to climo through the near term, with lows tonight in the mid 60s, and highs Wednesday ranging from 85 near the coast to 90 inland. Regarding water levels along the lower Cape Fear, minor flooding is expected with tonight`s high tide, although not quite to the same extent as Monday night. Latest forecast is for the downtown ILM gauge to reach 5.7 feet between midnight and 1 AM, so will issue an advisory for minor flooding. Otherwise, regarding the extensive haziness from Canadian wildfire smoke, is appears that it will continue through Wednesday as it circulates southward around the upper low retrograding over the New England states. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... At the start of the period, a spoke of vorticity rotating around the backside of a large closed upper low over northern New England will be pushing southward. A surface cold front will likely be draped across our CWA Wednesday evening and on its way southward with isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along or ahead of it. Guidance continues to suggest weakening convergence along the front will result in a decaying band of showers dropping into our NC zones Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a pre-frontal trough may be able to produce a somewhat more organized line of convection in the SC zones if enough instability is present. Unseasonably low dewpoints across the inland zones in the 50s will limit instability and modest bulk shear reserved to near/along the front will present a narrow window for storm to develop which may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, mainly near the coast. The Storm Prediction Center currently highlights the whole CWA in a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms, but the best of this low chance will be nearer to the coast. Low temps Wednesday night will be cooler than normal, mainly in the low 60s. Chances for rain will decrease from north to south through the night as the front sinks into southern SC by sunrise. However, as the lobe of vorticity pivots eastward around the closed upper low, a weak surface low may develop and track along the front, slowing its southward progress. This may permit some passing showers to affect the SC zones on Thursday, but these should be brief and fast-moving if they do occur. Cooler and drier air will bring high temps below normal for the day,around 80F. Another shortwave rotating around the upper low should help push the front more definitively away from the area overnight Thursday night, bringing rain chances to an end and knocking lows to even cooler values in the upper 50s. On Friday, high pressure over the Midwest will build southeastward over the area with weak warm advection starting up as it moves offshore. High temps will be slightly warmer than Thursday, mainly in the low-mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure and increasing mid-level ridging will dominate through most of the weekend, finally producing much more summer-like conditions than we have seen over the last month or so. Sunny skies and warm to very warm highs in the mid-80s to around 90F are on tap for Saturday and Sunday. If you will be seeking to enjoy the warming beach waters this weekend, make sure to swim safely, responsibly, and in the presence of lifeguards. While morning lows on Saturday will be unseasonably chilly, in the upper 50s to around 60, Sunday morning`s lows will end up around normal, in the middle 60s. Looking upstream, model guidance unfortunately agrees that yet another closed low is likely to develop during Sunday and Sunday night, this time over or near the Great Lakes vicinity. The lead shortwave responsible for this low is progged to produce a surface low which will track through the Ohio Valley and into New England early next week. This will lift a warm front through which will mainly serve to increase dewpoints instead of temperatures ahead of a cold front. With the fairly close proximity of the surface low and abundant moisture, there may be considerable shower activity along and ahead of the front on Monday into Monday night. However, as upper lows are difficult for model guidance to handle and especially with this being 6 days out, have opted to cap PoPs in the chance range at this point until more consistency across future model runs is observed. Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front and how cool things become behind the front will depend on the ultimate evolution of the closed low, so stay tuned to future forecasts. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR expected through the period. The anticipated surface trough is moving southward through the area. The column will remain very dry with surface dewpoints dropping off a bit from here. This along with some wind will preclude any fog formation. The increasing pops for Wednesday afternoon aren`t high enough to warrant mention at least at this time. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Saturday, outside of showers/tstms associated with a frontal passage Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Through Through Wednesday...SW flow of 15-20 kt will continue overnight between high pressure centered off the SE coast and a surface trough across central NC. Any shower/tstm activity that develops inland late this afternoon and early evening will track towards the waters, but tendency should be to weaken if it holds together and manages to move off the coast. A cold front will approach from the north late Wednesday afternoon, and depending on timing, may produce a wind shift across the waters north of Cape Fear by late afternoon. A moderate gradient will remain in place between the retreating surface high off the FL coast and the advancing cold front, resulting in 15-20 kt SW winds, with perhaps occasional gusts into the low 20s, through the near term period. Wednesday night through Sunday... Gusty winds around 20 kts and elevated seas into the 3-5 ft range, mainly from the south at 6 seconds, Wednesday evening will gradually subside through the night as a cold front settles southward, shifting winds to northwesterly early in the night. High pressure builds in for the rest of the period with offshore flow generally aob 10 kts through Friday night becoming southerly at 10-15 kts for Saturday and Sunday. Seas in the 2-3 ft range mainly from the south at 5-6 sec Thursday into Friday become 1-2 ft by late Friday before rising back into the 2-3 ft range on Saturday as the gradient tightens. A warm front lifting through on Sunday will bring increased winds and seas rising further into the 2-4 ft range, mainly from the southeast at 7 sec. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...SHK MARINE...ABW/CRM
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 Key Messages: - Rain chances remain in the forecast through Saturday. - Dry and pleasant weather Sunday through Tuesday. There remains a slight chance of a spotty shower or thunderstorm through about 7 pm. We are seeing a couple of cells pop up in central NE, and can`t rule it out through the remainder of the afternoon, but most areas will more likely stay dry. The story for Wednesday will be the back door front that will move into the are from the east. This front is currently across central IA, and models push this northwest to southeast front into our area Wednesday. With the front bisecting the region at peak heating, most of the Cams indicate stronger convective development around 1 pm through 9 pm. Effective wind shear is still pretty weak at 20 knots or less, but the boundary could be the focus for at least a marginal chance of a stronger storm or two capable of hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. The HRRR model has the stronger convection west of the Missouri River, and the HiResW/WRFARW/NamNest all have it along the Missouri River, so there will still be refinement of the exact placement. Otherwise, it will still be hot tomorrow, with highs west of the front in the lower 90s, and east mid to upper 80s. Any storms that develop will linger into the Wednesday evening, but not much left after midnight into Thursday morning. With the front now remaining in place Thursday into Friday, it will provide at least a small chance of showers/storms especially during the afternoon and evenings, and especially across eastern NE. Thursday highs in the lower to mid 80s mostly, and mid to upper 80s Friday. There is another cold front that will move through the region Saturday. This will increase our rain chances to 40-60%. Wind shear may be slightly stronger at 25 knots, but the severe storm threat may not be high enough to trip SPC`s day 5 outlook at this time. Can`t rule out a stronger storm or two though. The front does bring drier weather Sunday through Tuesday. It also brings cooler and pleasant temperatures, highs Sunday in the upper 70s, lower 80s Monday, and mid 80s for Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023 A backdoor front is expected to push its way through eastern NE Wednesday afternoon leading to possible scattered TSRA at all terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...DEE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1058 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passes through and gets east of the region tonight. Low pressure will otherwise remain near the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday. The low weakens as it shifts over the area Thursday before moving into the western Atlantic Thursday night into Friday. High pressure builds in Saturday and moves offshore Sunday. A frontal system impacts the area Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Any lingering shower activity has pushed offshore with any remaining activity weakening up to the north and northeast. Smoke and haze from wildfires across eastern Canada will continue working into the region. Visibilities get down as low as 2-5sm at times. The latest HRRR and RRFS_A near-surface smoke fields indicate the concentration may lower at least some overnight behind the cold front passage, but have and show widespread haze in the forecast into the early morning hours. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s inland and lower to middle 50s close to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Deep-layered cyclonic flow continues with anomalous closed low retrograding from the Maritimes to northern New England Wednesday into Wednesday night. Disturbances rotating around the upper low will bring scattered to broken clouds Wednesday afternoon with a slight chance of showers. Coverage looks less than today with less forcing and less focus at the surface. Any shower activity looks isolated on Wednesday afternoon and the latest suite of CAMs is in good agreement. Temperatures on Wednesday will reach the low to middle 70s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast. Hazy conditions are likely to continue through Wednesday evening. Near surface smoke may be less in the morning, but the last several runs of the extended HRRR have indicated higher concentrations of smoke closer to the surface in the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. The concentrations could be higher across the western half of the forecast area, but have put in patchy smoke areawide for now. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper closed low pressure across the northeast Thursday remains Friday and then weakens and moves east Saturday. The longwave trough remains across eastern Canada and another shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing into another closed low that remains into Tuesday. Generally unsettled weather will impact the area through much of the long term with a chance of showers, and thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings Thursday into Saturday. A surface low and cold front impacts the area later Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be below seasonal levels Thursday and Friday, and return to more seasonal levels Saturday into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front moves to the east tonight. VFR and MVFR through the TAF period, with periods of MVFR mainly associated with lower visibilities due to smoke. Latest amendments have lowered visibilities through 5-7z due to thicker smoke and haze being reported with slant range visibilities being impacted at a few terminals. Brief IFR visibilities still possible for a few more hours at a few terminals. Winds are now NW and diminish into the overnight. NW winds continue into Wed, with eastern coastal terminals like KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON likely going W and SW late in the day. Smoke from Quebec wildfires will limit slant range visibility at times through 5-7z. Smoke and haze issues likely return again late Wed and Wed evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Visibilities at ground may get as low as 3sm at times in smoke with amendments possible through tonight. Smoke from Canadian wildfires could limit slant range visibilities due to smoke aloft. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday night: N-NW winds around 5 kt. MVFR vsby again possible in smoke/haze, especially during the evening. Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early evening showers both days. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or tsra, mainly for northern terminals. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at night in shra. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place. Low pressure moves away from the waters Thursday into Friday, and high pressure builds in for Saturday and then east on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... A special weather statement remains until 7pm for NE NJ with an enhanced risk of brush fire spread. This is due to NW winds at times gusting as high as 20 to 25 mph and RH values 30 to 35 percent. No SPS will be needed for Wednesday based on collaboration with NJ land managers. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes continues to produce E swell that in tandem with high astronomical tides is keeping water levels higher than usual, especially in the back bays of Nassau. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the high tide cycle late this evening as water levels there may barely touch minor coastal flooding thresholds. There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches on Wednesday, and a moderate risk on Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/MET NEAR TERM...JE/DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JE MARINE...DS/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...DS/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
843 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .EVENING UPDATE...Lingering shower and T-storm activity has almost entirely held to the south of our CWA this evening with upper-level convective debris streaming across the region in the form of cirrus caught up in the southerly flow aloft. Moving through the rest of the night into Wednesday morning, the cut-off low to our south will continue to swing mid-level moisture northward but without diurnal heating it likely goes untapped. That said, some CAM guidance like the HRRR does show some isolated shower and/or weak T-storm activity overnight over portions of eastern Deschutes County, Crook County, and Grant County. This appears to line up with a swath of moisture currently associated with T-storms to our south and some remnant 100-400j/kg of MUCAPE aloft as indicated by the NAM and Canadian model. Low end PoPs(~15%) were added to these aforementioned areas to account for this potential scenario although confidence is rather low given its nocturnal nature. We`ll certainly have to watch the eastern Mountains overnight should this moisture and any isolated activity push further north; confidence is high north-central Oregon through the Columbia Basin and northward stays dry and quiet. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track going forward with the environment primed come Wednesday afternoon for scattered T-storms across Central Oregon through the Eastern Mountains - isolated severe activity possible. The previous discussion remains for reference below. Schuldt/99 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 PM PDT Tue Jun 6 2023/ .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...So far this afternoon there have been mainly just cumulus development over the southern and eastern areas of the CWA. There have not been any lightning strikes yet in the forecast area as of 2 PM PDT. However, there still remains enough instability and moisture to warrant a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern and eastern most areas of the CWA by late this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms today should just be the pulse type that do not become organized supercell type storms with rotation. The forecast area is in between a low pressure system to the south and a weak upper trough to the north over southwest Canada and far northern WA. There will be some moisture that will wrap around the low to the south into the southern and eastern areas of the CWA this evening that will produce some showers and possible thunderstorms. SPC has a general risk of non-severe thunderstorms over the southern and eastern areas of the CWA for this evening. These will decrease overnight, and then there will be a better chance, with increasing instability and moisture on Wednesday, which will also push further to the north, reaching the Blue Mountains and central OR. There will even be enough moisture and instability for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening for areas as far north as the Blue Mountains. Currently, SPC has a MARGINAL risk of severe storms in these areas. The upper low over the Great Basin will then weaken, however a southeast flow will remain, pushing moisture and instability into the forecast area on Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values will be higher, so thunderstorms will have a better chance of producing more rain with them. However, due to the increased cloud cover and expected cooler temperatures, it will not be as unstable on Thursday, as it will be on Wednesday. Therefore, only general thunderstorms will be expected for Thursday and Thursday night. This is in agreement with both the NBM 4.1, and also with the SPC convective outlook for Thursday. Wednesday will be the hottest day, with high temperatures mostly in the 90s, with a slight chance that some of the hotter areas of the WA Lower Columbia Basin may reach 100 degrees. In the mountains, highs will be mostly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. These temperatures will be about 10-20 degrees above normal for early June. Cooler temperatures are then expected for Thursday, by about 4-6 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the 60s lower elevations and mostly 40s to mid 50s in the mountains. It will become locally breezy to windy during the afternoons and evenings, mainly in central to north central OR, as well as the eastern Columbia River Gorge. The strongest winds will be on Thursday when a westerly pressure gradient tightens up across the Cascades and causes winds to increase through the Cascade gaps and the eastern Columbia River Gorge. 88 .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...The extended period is characterized by a passing open wave from our south, as another upper level low pressure system drives into California before slowly opening up and moving through the Pacific Northwest into the early part of the workweek. This will provide thunderstorm chances (30- 50%) on Friday across Central Washington and along the Blue Mountains and east, staying more confined to the eastern mountains Saturday through Tuesday as chances wane between 20-30%. The ECMWF EFI highlights Friday`s storm threat as 50-80% of ensembles show unclimatologically high amounts of CAPE extending from Deschutes County through the John-Day/Ochoco Highlands and into the Northern Blues/Wallowas. Temperatures will also be warming through the period, especially Sunday onward as an upper level ridge builds off the Pacific coast. High temperatures will be increasing from the upper 70s to low 80s for lower elevations of the Basin on Friday into the upper 80s to low 90s for lower elevations of the Basin on Monday, which is about 10 degrees above normal. Conditions will also be drying through the weekend and into next week with max RH`s dropping into the low to mid 60% range Tuesday morning with min RH`s around 25% Tuesday afternoon. An upper level wave, that was previously a closed low pressure system over Southern California, will begin pushing in from the south on Thursday and continue to slowly track through our area Friday before exiting to our northeast on Saturday. This will allow for shower and thunderstorm potential beginning Friday morning and extending through the day before focusing along the Blue Mountains and east into Saturday morning. Pockets of MUCAPE values between 250- 750J/kg are present from Deschutes county through the John- Day/Ochoco Highlands and into the eastern mountains with 0-6km shear between 20-30kts. Heavy downpours will be possible with any developing storm cells as precipitable water (PW) values are between 0.75-1.25", which is 150-200% above normal on Friday. These PW values will be decreasing and closer to 100-120% above normal starting Saturday as drier air moves into the region. Breezy conditions will also ensue through the day on Friday, especially across the Eastern Gorge, Lower Columbia Basin, and Kittitas Valley as a pressure gradient of around 5mb will be present between Portland and Spokane to allow for gusts of up to 35mph out of the west-southwest, peaking Friday morning. Conditions will be drier on Saturday as the wave continues to lift through the area and push north late in the day into Sunday morning to allow for another chance for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern mountains (35-55%), John-Day/Ochoco Highlands (30-40%), and the Northern Blue Mountain foothills (15-30%) before tapering off in the evening. An upper level low pressure will be developing off the coast of Southern California Saturday morning before moving inland Sunday morning and stalling over Northern California on Monday. This will allow for flow aloft to have more of a southeast component to advect a drier and warmer air mass into the area to provide high temperatures into the low 90s for areas of the Eastern Gorge and Lower Columbia Basin on Sunday. An upper level ridge offshore of the California closed-low feature builds on Sunday and infiltrates into the Pacific Northwest on Monday, helping to further dry conditions and bump temperatures up 3 to 5 degrees for lower elevations of the Basin from Sunday to Monday. This continues into Tuesday until a weak shortwave over the Yukon suppresses the ridge slightly to allow for more northwest flow aloft and cooler conditions heading into the midweek. Guidance is in good agreement with the overall trend of an opening wave passing through our area, a subsequent low pressure system to our south, and an offshore upper level ridge, but differences arise regarding the strength and timing of the low pressure system and building upper level ridge into the early week. These discrepancies are visualized via the 500mb EOF Patterns as a 40-50% ensemble variance is present along with a dipole indicating the primary issue is with the timing of the incoming low pressure system through the weekend before turning to differences in ridge strength into the early workweek. This would lead to a warmer and drier outcome with the GFS versus the ECMWF, as the GFS pushes the upper level ridge into our area much earlier on Monday then the ECMWF, which moves it in Tuesday morning. The cluster phase space lends more confidence in the ECMWF outcome of a later building ridge, which keeps the potential for developing afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the eastern mountains Sunday and Monday. This also provides additional confidence in high temperatures breaking into the upper 80s to low 90s for lower elevations of the Basin over both days. Cluster heights also lend additional confidence in the ECMWF scenario with the majority of ensembles aligning better to a slower building ridge. Thus, the NBM was utilized through the extended period to provide an applicably weighted scenario of warming temperatures through Monday and lingering storm chances into early next week for the eastern mountains. 75 && .AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Late this afternoon convection in Central Oregon has held south of BDN/RDM and confidence is moderate to high it remains this way through sunset at which point any lingering showers/T-storms in the region come to an end. Predominately northerly winds follow this trend as well with gusts near 15-20 knots at BDN, RDM, ALW, and PDT decreasing overnight - otherwise lighter winds all other sites. Another round of T-storms is expected Wednesday afternoon with the best chances at BDN and RDM out of all the TAF sites although confidence in exact placement and timing is low. As a result, any mention of TS or VCTS conditions were excluded from this round of TAFs but as confidence increases these may be added in later updates. 99 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 57 92 62 87 / 0 0 10 20 ALW 60 95 65 90 / 0 0 0 20 PSC 60 98 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 YKM 58 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 10 HRI 59 97 65 93 / 0 0 0 10 ELN 55 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 10 RDM 53 87 56 83 / 0 20 20 20 LGD 57 88 60 84 / 0 20 20 40 GCD 54 87 56 83 / 10 40 40 50 DLS 59 97 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....75 AVIATION...99