Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1053 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Key Messages:
- Isolated to scattered showers/storms mainly near/north of I-90
through this evening and farther south/west into Tuesday.
Isolated locally heavy rain possible, but other areas will
remain dry.
- A very dry, seasonable period of weather expected for mid-week.
- Additional showers/storms possible late week (40-60% chance),
especially Saturday, but widespread impactful rain or severe
storm chances look low.
This evening-Tuesday:
Hazy skies persist due to smoke from wildfires across eastern
Canada today with stagnant, weak low-level flow. With little CIN
and some boundary layer moisture/destabilization (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) behind a weak surface boundary, especially near/north of
I-90, expect scattered diurnally driven showers/storms this
afternoon/evening. Given weak deep layer wind shear beneath
ridging aloft, storm organization will be limited with the risk
for organized strong/severe storms very low. However, given slow
storm motions, rain amounts could locally exceed 1" in spots, but
many areas will also see little or no rain given the scattered,
pulsy nature of the storms.
Additional scattered showers/storms will remain possible into
Tuesday, especially from southeast MN/northeast IA into southwest
WI. A similar environment to today will exist in these areas on
Tuesday with weak shear, modest destabilization and weak capping.
This environment is not supportive for any organized strong/severe
storms, but locally heavy rain could occur with any slow-moving
storms. The RAP shows the lower-level smoke decreasing later
Tuesday/Tuesday night in the post-frontal easterly flow, although
some haziness could persist from smoke aloft.
Wednesday-Thursday:
A very dry, seasonable airmass will overspread the area for mid-week
as surface ridging centered across eastern Canada noses into the
Upper Midwest. NAEFS precipitable water values are forecast to fall
below the 10th percentile relative to climo during this time with RH
likely to fall near or even below 20% in spots with diurnal
mixing. While winds will remain light, the dry conditions may
lead to somewhat elevated fire weather conditions. Due to the dry
airmass, cooler overnight lows in the 40s and 50s are likely.
Friday-Monday:
Northwest flow aloft will persist late this week across the area
downstream from northern stream ridging centered across the Rockies.
A few embedded shortwave troughs will impact the region late this
week with a cold front expected to slide south around Saturday.
Scattered showers/storms are possible (40-60% chance) later Friday
and especially into Saturday. With modest deep layer shear and
moisture return ahead of the northern stream trough, the risk for
strong/severe storms looks low at this time. High pressure is
forecast to build back south from the northern plains early next
week with seasonable temps and dry conditions returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
A weak surface boundary was sliding slowly south through the area
this evening and will continue to do so overnight into Tuesday.
This boundary may provide some focus for scattered shower and
storm development along it but no real consensus on when or where
from the CAMs. The latest run of the HRRR does not generate any
activity until Tuesday afternoon and by then the front should be
south of both sites. For now, plan to stay with continuity and
show VFR conditions with just a VCSH for both sites from late
tonight through Tuesday.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1028 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing shower activity ahead of a weak cold front is expected
tonight. We should see the areal coverage of these showers increase
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with chances for showers continuing
each day this week. We will continue to see smokey skies through at
least Tuesday and likely into Wednesday with air quality alerts
already in place for Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1022 PM EDT Monday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Smoke continues to spread across the region
this evening, with moderate to unhealthy conditions now being
reported from the Connecticut River Valley westward. The worst
conditions are still across the St Lawrence Valley, and this
will be the trend for the remainder of tonight into Tuesday.
Otherwise, convection associated with the incoming frontal
boundary has waned now that we`ve lost daytime heating. There
are still returns seen on radar, but note no precipitation has
been reported as the showers have moved across Ottawa and
Kemptville sites in Ontario. Therefore, expect that any showers
that do enter our forecast area will produce little more than
sprinkles or very light rain. PoPs have been reduced to 30% or
less accordingly. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape and
no other changes were needed.
Previous discussion...The story of the day thus far has been
the increasing smoke coverage from wildfires across Ontario and
Quebec this afternoon. Observations along the St. Lawrence River
are showing visibilities between 7 and 9 miles with webcams
showing low level smoke wafting across the river. The latest
runs of the HRRR and RAP smoke models show plenty of low level
smoke overspreading the area over the next few hours. Several
employees in Burlington can already smell the smoke in the
Champlain Valley and we should see increasing low level smoke
between 4 PM and 10 PM. Air quality alerts remain in effect
until midnight for northern New York and until 9 AM for the
Champlain Valley in Vermont. It`s looking increasingly likely we
will need air quality alerts for Tuesday based on the latest
trends in satellite and model data.
The smoke has acted as a deterrent for fair weather cumulus this
afternoon as it appears lapse rates have been significantly. Lower
lapse rates has limited updraft strength and prevented cloud
formation which has also allowed us to warm a few degrees warmer
than previously thought. This has had a negative impact on
precipitation chances as we continue to see little to no vertical
development of clouds along an approaching frontal boundary. Still,
we should see some scattered showers move across northern New York
this evening and overnight but limited coverage and low
precipitation rates will yield little rainfall. Rain chances should
increase on Tuesday as a strong shortwave pivots around an upper low
off the coast of Maine. Models do show some weak instability
developing in response to height falls aloft and some decent lapse
rates during the afternoons. This may yield a few rumbles of thunder
but it seems more likely this instability will be more useful in
increasing the coverage of showers across the region. Like today, we
will have to watch how the smoke impacts the skies as it could be a
wild card and limit some much needed rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Deep, closed upper low anchored near New
Brunswick/Nova Scotia will remain our controlling weather feature
for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Moist, cyclonic flow and
potential for orographic blocking upstream of the Greens/northern
Adirondacks will maintain seasonably cool and mostly cloudy
conditions. Looking for 850mb temperatures of only +1C to +3C
supporting daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday
afternoon across most of the forecast area. Some partial sunshine
far western sections/St. Lawrence county should allow for highs in
the mid 60s. Periods of rain shower activity are possible, though
rainfall amounts should be relatively light (mainly <0.10", except
0.10-0.20" across the higher terrain). Indicated 60- 65% PoPs for
central/n-central/nern VT, and closer to 40% for Rutland/Windsor
counties and St. Lawrence county in northern NY based on current NWP
trends. PoPs decrease to 30-40% areawide Wednesday night, with lows
generally 44-49F.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...Persistent closed upper low across the
Canadian Maritimes should continue as our controlling wx feature
Thursday-Friday, before finally shearing out to the ENE Friday night
into Saturday per NWP consensus. Relatively cool, mostly cloudy
conditions persist Thursday and Friday in moist cyclonic mid-level
flow regime, with valley highs in the mid 60s Thursday and upper 60s
on Friday. Potential for light rain showers continue (30-50% PoPs),
but are not expected to be particularly organized or persistent,
with generally light rainfall amounts expected. Should see some
increase in rain shower activity Thu/Fri afternoon, with potential
for shallow instability enhancing coverage during peak heating
hours. NW flow and developing shortwave ridging brings mostly sunny
conditions Saturday with highs closer to seasonal levels (low-mid
70s). Next shortwave trough in westerly mid-level flow brings next
chance for scattered showers across the North Country, either late
Sunday or Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the TAF period, with periods of MVFR possible this
evening into early Tuesday. Cloud cover hasn`t been as
expansive today as we thought it would be with smoke from
wildfires to our north helping to inhibit cloud cover. A weak
surface boundary will bring chances for showers to mainly
northern NY terminals after 03z, but minimal coverage/impacts
precludes mention in the TAFs. Better chances for more
widespread showers arrives Tuesday afternoon, though still have
kept mention limited to VCSH for now. Otherwise, local MVFR
visibilities will be possible in smoke overnight, especially at
KMSS/KPBG/KBTV/KSLK. Light winds, generally out of the north to
northwest, will continue overnight, becoming gusty to around 18
kt Tuesday afternoon.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Clay/Hastings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
905 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will slowly move northward
overnight and will gradually move north into the Maritimes
Tuesday. The low will remain stalled over the Maritimes through
Friday and move east of the region Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:05 PM Update: The forecast remains on track with only minor
adjustments to account for the current and expected conditions
for the remainder of the night. The water vapor satellite
channel shows a mid level circulation to the south of Nova
Scotia that will lift north overnight. Area radars and
observations indicate manly dry conditions as of 9 PM with a bit
of light rain in spots across the North Woods and an isolated
shower in spots Downeast. The main area of rain is moving out of
Nova Scotia and into eastern New Brunswick. The rain will
continue to back toward eastern Maine overnight.
Previous discussion:
The vertically stacked low pressure south of Nova Scotia will
deepen tonight into early Tuesday as it drifts northward into
Nova Scotia. Blocking will prevent much movement of this system
and the entire closed low circulation will become much broader
tonight into Tuesday as a powerful upper jet moves southward on
the backside of the upper trough.
A shortwave rotating around the low was responsible for the
band of rain that lifted north across the area today and is
currently weakening/stalling in Aroostook County. This band
should dissipate in place this evening as upper level support
disappears.
A strong shortwave is currently rounding the base of the
offshore low with deep Atlantic moisture and strong lift moving
into western Nova Scotia. While some models such as the HRRR
suggest the southeastern corner of Washington County could be
clipped by this heavier precip, will go with a maximum of one
half inch tonight near Lubec and Eastport...and much less
further inland. As the cut-off low lifts north into Nova
Scotia, this moisture will eventually wrap cyclonically around
the closed circulation and approach the rest of eastern Maine
from the east after midnight. This wrap-around occlusion will
cause rain across the area all of Tuesday.
Although there is decent moisture transport westward into the
area on Tuesday, helped by an emerging H850 jet, lift will be
weak and PWs will be less than an inch. Therefore, QPF tonight
into Tuesday will be limited to between a quarter inch to one
half inch...in spite of somewhat continuous rainfall on
Tuesday.
The tight pressure gradient will lead to fairly gusty northerly
winds, but a low mixing depth and extensive cloud cover will
keep gusts maxed out around 25 mph.
The clouds, rain and cool air aloft will produce another day
with high temps limited to the low to mid 50s...only several
degrees above record low high temps and some 15 to 20 degrees
below normal readings.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Vertically stacked low pressure trough remains centered over
eastern Maine into the Canadian Maritimes through the mid-week
time period. This will persist the cool, cloudy, rainy pattern
that we have seen across the forecast area over the next several
days. With the blocking pattern in place, there is good model
consistency in this pattern remaining in place through the short
term.
Wednesday will be cool with highs in the lower 50s across the
north. Northwest to north winds will descend from the higher
terrain across the north into the lower terrain Downeast, and
this downsloping will help Downeast areas remain a bit milder
with highs in the upper 50s. Flow will shift more northerly
across the forecast area on Thursday, though more breaks in the
clouds are likely as the low begins to weaken overhead, so
temperatures will be warmer on Thursday with highs in the mid to
upper 50s across the north and around 60 Downeast. Low
temperatures each night will fall into the 40s and overcast
skies and lingering rain will limit how far temperatures fall,
limiting the threat for frost.
Downsloping will lead to a lesser chance of precip Downeast
through midweek as the air mass dries over higher terrain, with
a greater chance of consistent light to moderate rainfall over
the northern half of the forecast area. That said, enough mid
level moisture will fill this low pressure system such that rain
is expected to continue Downeast, just in lesser amounts than
across the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trough of low pressure will begin to slowly break down and
exit the region through the end of the weak, allowing for a
narrow ridge of high pressure to build in across northern and
eastern Maine by Saturday, lasting through the weekend. Under
the high pressure, though there remains a chance for rain
showers each day (mostly diurnally driven), partly cloudy skies
will return and temperatures will lift back into the 70s for
daily highs across the forecast area.
Unfortunately, the warmer and quieter weather pattern under the
ridge of high pressure will not last long, as another low
pressure system approaches from the west. Better model
agreement now exists on the front for Sunday night into Monday
among the global models. This front will bring another round of
rain through the entire forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally MVFR ceilings this evening, although VFR at
times north of KHUL. The trend will be towards IFR cigs for all
sites later tonight through Tuesday. Ceilings may lift a bit to
low end MVFR later in the day Tuesday.
LLWS is possible during Tuesday, but it is borderline at this
time and was left out of the 00z Tafs.
N wind 5 to 10 knots the remainder of tonight, becoming N 10 to
15 knots on Tuesday.
SHORT TERM:
Tues night - Thurs night: MVFR cigs, with potential for cigs to
lift to VFR each afternoon. Winds NW 10 to 15 kts Tues night,
shifting N at 5 to 10 kts Wed through Thurs night.
Fri - Sat: Mainly VFR, though MVFR possible in scattered
showers. Winds N at 5 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable on
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will continue the ongoing SCA into Tuesday morning.
The offshore low is deepening with a tightening pressure
gradient, but the cold waters will enhance stability and limit
mixing.
Cannot rule out some fog tonight into Tuesday morning as dew
points creep above water temperatures, but confidence was not
high enough to include in the forecast.
North winds will slowly shift to northwest by Tuesday afternoon.
There will be some decrease in wind speeds on Tuesday and saw no
need to extend the SCA.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels Tuesday
night through the end of the week. NW winds will briefly gust
near 20 kts on the coastal waters Tuesday night, but will
decrease and remain well below advisory criteria through the end
of the week. Seas will sit around 2 to 4 ft.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/MCW
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...CB/MCW/AStrauser
Marine...CB/MCW/AStrauser
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
907 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Allowed the flash flood watch for the Mullen Burn Scar to expire
on time at 9 PM. Radar showing convection decreasing
significantly with sunset and lack of surface heating. Updates
sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Latest GOES WV imagery shows a large scale blocking ridge remaining
in place over the northern plains into Canada with an upper level
low over ID and another moving into the southwest CONUS.
Southeasterly flow under the ridge continues to spread fairly good
moisture across much of the CWA. Dew points east of I-25 are in the
low to mid-50s with mid-40 degree dew points reaching west of the
Laramie Range in Carbon and Albany Co. PWATs remain 0.7-0.9" across
much of the area as the 12z RIW sounding has yet again recorded a
near record value for early June. Upper level flow remains weak
again today limiting the potential for organized convection.
However, increasing mid-level lapse rates across Carbon Co with the
approaching upper level low and increasing low-level moisture with
southeast flow east of I-25 has led to greater instability than over
the weekend.
Latest radar and satellite trends have shown single cell convection
developing over Carbon Co early this afternoon, including in the
vicinity of the Mullen Burn Scar in the Snowy Range where a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect today. While individual cell life cycles
should be short-lived, will need to monitor for multiple cells
developing within close proximity increasing rainfall totals over
this sensitive area. Weak flow aloft will also support slow moving
to nearly stationary storms. Farther east, storms have developed
along the North Platte River valley in Garden Co where RAP analysis
has 800-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Isolated storms may sneak into
Cheyenne, Morrill, and Box Butte Co through this afternoon. Storms
will begin to dissipate this evening around sundown.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, expecting much of the same with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms developing mainly west of I-25 with
slightly warmer temperatures climbing into the 70s with portions of
the North Platte River valley and northern NE Panhandle reaching the
80s. PWATs will be slightly lower, but scattered showers and storms
are still expected.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
The unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue into the
latter half of the week and upcoming weekend.
A stubborn upper level blocking pattern shows little signs of
breaking in the upcoming week, which is likely to keep the moist
and unsettled pattern going for much of the period. A persistent
ridge will meander between the upper midwest, northern Great
Plains, and Canadian prairie over the next week, creating an
omega block along with two upper level lows located over the
California coast and in the Northeast. A highly unusual flow
pattern will result, with deep southeasterly flow over our area
extending from the surface all the way to the tropopause. On
Wednesday, the slow moving cutoff low over California will start
to meander slowly eastward, increasing moisture advection over our
area. This should start to boost PW values again. GEFS mean PW at
KBFF climbs from 0.7 at 12z Wednesday to about 1 inch by 00z
Friday. Instability looks modest, but certainly sufficient for
convection which could enhance rainfall rates. Severe probably
looks low due to modest lapse rates and weak shear continuing.
Wednesday looks similar to today and tomorrow, with substantial
mid-level dry air east of I-25 stifling storm development, but
scattered to numerous showers and storms likely further west. This
is likely to change on Thursday, with much more moist air filling
into the middle atmosphere over the high plains. Thus, looking at
more widespread showers and thunderstorms and higher PoPs for
Thursday. By Friday, a sizable chunk of models turn the low-level
flow westerly behind a weak shortwave. This produces a very odd
looking sounding with low level westerlies and upper level
easterlies more typical of a tropical westerly wind burst than
June in the mid-latitudes. Reduced surface dewpoints along and
west of I-25 could reduce storm coverage, but moisture remains
sufficient further east. Therefore, reduced PoPs overall, but
still have widespread 40 to 60% focused a little more north and
east than days prior.
Heading into the weekend, the California cutoff low starts to
restrengthen again with increasing moisture advection. Models
still show sufficient instability to produce convection on
Saturday, but cooler temperatures and increased cloud cover for
Sunday and Monday may lead to a more stratiform rainfall setup, at
least per the GFS. This does not have full model consensus
though, as the ECMWF remains more destabilized for Sunday and
Monday but still a little cooler. The ECMWF (with ensemble
support) even shows a more concerning setup for severe potential
for Sunday and Monday. With quite diverging solutions at this
time, went with the middle of the road for now, but will continue
to monitor over the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
VFR conditions across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle
currently and expected to persist through the 00Z TAF period.
Current weather hazards include isolated thunderstorms across
southeast Wyoming remaining mostly stationary, but will slowly
dissipate and shift east over the next few hours. Isolated areas
of fog are possible in portions of southeast Wyoming Tuesday
morning, but confidence was not there to put it in the TAFs. Gusty
winds 20 to 30 knots forecast tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Minimal fire weather concerns over the next several days due to
recent widespread rainfall, fuels in green-up status, and
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next
several days. Minimum RH should remain above 25 percent for most
of the week ahead.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...LK
FIRE WEATHER...MN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
713 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Key Messages:
-- Warm, isolated storm chances this afternoon, mainly west and north
-- Scattered storms Tuesday into Wednesday
-- Seasonal, but cooler with unseasonably drier air arriving
Wednesday through Friday
-- Next rainfall possible toward Saturday
Details: Pattern remains locked in the omega block with the western
longwave trough now centered over the British Columbia province and
the eastern longwave trough just off the Northeastern US coast. The
mid-level ridge is centered over the southern Manitoba province and
this has kept the general wind flow through much of the column from
an easterly or northerly direction. This has been directing high-
level smoke and clouds southwestward over the state. In addition,
there was likely low-level smoke over portions of eastern into
central Iowa with the visibility down to 4 or 5 miles at several
sites. Visibility has mostly improved due to the inversion
dissipating around midday. Looking upstream at GOES-East Day Cloud
Phase Distinction RGB, can see low level clouds over central
Minnesota into western Wisconsin and behind these is the location of
the cold/cool front. While we may see a few storms pop this
afternoon over the western half of the state as we reach the
convective temperature and where the higher MLCAPE axis will be
located, there may be a few isolated storms over northern Iowa. In
either case, severe weather is not expected, though small hail will
be possible with each initial storm updraft with storm demise having
gusty winds as they drift slowly westward. However, even the wind
potential looks less than yesterday with latest HRRR runs, the
9z/12z RRFS, and 12z NamNest topping out around 30 knots. As in past
days, all this activity will diminish after sunset.
As the cold front slowly moves southwestward into Iowa tonight into
Tuesday, this will push the higher concentrations of high-level and
near-surface smoke south of the state. There could be lingering low
concentrations of near-surface smoke, but uncertain if this would be
enough to cause any visibility issues or even air quality concerns,
which the Iowa Department of Natural Resources will be monitoring.
The front will also be a forcing and focus mechanism for scattered
storms to develop over northeastern Iowa after midnight tonight. The
chances for scattered storms will gradually spread southwestward
into central and western Iowa through the day Tuesday into
Wednesday. While there may be a relative minimum in storms Tuesday
night, there will likely be some activity persisting overnight. With
all the storms Tuesday into Wednesday, the severe risk remains quite
low. Low level lapse rates of 7.5C/km or higher will aid in initial
storm development, but mid-level lapse rates will be marginal and
the higher shear will lag behind the boundary. With only 20 knots or
less of shear to work with, storms will struggle to organize. The
relatively higher concern will be locally heavy rainfall as moisture
pools along and ahead of the cold front with precipitable water
values between 1.5 and 1.75 inches and favorable efficient rain
processes with warm cloud depths oftentimes above 11000 feet.
Deterministic models indicate bullseye amounts of 2-3 inches with
the 12z HREF showing similar on Tuesday. While widespread flooding
concerns are also quite low, poor drainage ponding could be possible
if a storm passes over an urban area.
The longwave trough off the Northeast US coast will expand westward,
partially aided by a shortwave trough rotating around the same side
later Wednesday into Thursday. This will help to push the cold front
west of the area as it dissipates as well as move and tilt the mid-
level ridge axis from the western Canadian provinces into the
central Rockies. Cooler and unseasonably dry air will filter into
eastern areas starting Wednesday and be common statewide Thursday
into Friday. With the ridge farther west, this will allow a
shortwave trough and cold front to drop toward the state from the
Hudson Bay low late Friday night. This will bring the chance for
storms back into the forecast, likely Saturday into Saturday night,
with high pressure building in later in the weekend drying the
forecast out once again.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
VFR conditions continue to prevail across central Iowa this
evening. Visibilities may be slightly reduced due to smoke/haze
moving in from the east, but are expected to remain VFR. Otherwise
expect isolated storms to diminish this evening. A frontal
boundary will begin to move through the state later Tuesday and
help bring increased chances for precipitation towards the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Castillo/Curtis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
613 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
A few showers and storms possible tonight, then scattered
thunderstorms expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some of these
storm may produce strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain. Far
eastern areas will see more storms on Wednesday, then dry
conditions are expected late week. Temperatures remain in the 90s
across the lowlands.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
A few scattered showers and storms possible tonight with mild
temperatures and breezy winds. Tuesday, dewpoints in the mid 40s
will foster an unstable atmosphere (1000J/kg, more in some cases)
with modest bulk shear (~20-30 kts) due to modest west to
southwest flow aloft. Any robust updrafts that develop in this
environment will have the potential to produce large hail and
damaging winds during the afternoon hrs, especially along and
east of the Rio Grande. The Sacramento mountains have had a few
days of rains, and so the threat for flooding is somewhat elevated
where soils are moist (and thus SLGHT from WPC ERO) and due to the
incoming rains Tues and Tues night. From my understanding, it
appears that additional storms will begin to fire south in N MX,
send off an outflow which will drift north and east into the
Borderland by late afternoon- evening- early overnight, with more
storms firing along that boundary. Thus, a band of showers and
thunderstorms with embedded mod to heavy rain is expected to
traverse a good chunk of the CWA during this time with areas of
gusty winds as well. HRRR suggests the Sacs may see some pretty
decent rains out of this overnight. Should make for an
interesting day and evening.
On Wednesday, moisture will shift east, but a small corridor east
of the Rio Grande will see an unstable and moderately sheared
environment. Thus, this region will have another shot at strong
thunderstorms and heavy rain. Elsewhere should be dry.
Thursday through the weekend will be characterized by mildly
breezy to breezy conditions, especially west of El Paso with
temperatures rising to the mid and eventually upper 90s across the
lowlands. Dry conditions are anticipated during this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Iso to sct TSRA along and east of the Rio Grande this afternoon
and evening affecting KTCS right now. Low confidence for KELP, but
placed VCTS due to storms popping up around the terminal, with
tempo groups at most terminals to cover outflow boundaries through
3Z. Southeast winds will be breezy through a good portion this
afternoon and into the overnight as moisture increases from the
east. Overnight, the easterly wind will pick up on west slopes to
15-25KT. With KELP on the east side, not expecting AWW criteria,
but will be watching. All in all, predominantly VFR except in any
TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Moisture lingers as the dryline continues to hover
around the AZ/NM border through Tuesday evening. Breezy east winds
will continue as well, allowing afternoon thunderstorms to build
over the northern Mountains and outflows to kick up storms in the
lowlands for areas east of the NM Bootheel. Min humidity levels rise
into the 20s and 30s for much of the region. West of the continental
divide will still see min humidity values dipping to 10 to 15% in
the afternoon hours today and Tuesday. Dry lightning will be
possible here as outflows could kick up storms producing mostly
virga and lightning.
Wednesday, an upper level system approaches AZ and moves southwest
winds aloft over the NM/AZ border. Southwest winds will mix down to
the surface in the afternoon and begin to move moisture east. Along
the RGV and west will see min humidity values from 5 to 15%, but
higher for areas east. Elevated fire conditions will be possible
over western areas, however this will depend on where the rain is
able to fall today and Tuesday. Fuels are still near the 50th
percentile, and southwest winds will be marginally gusty. A few
stronger storms will be possible for far eastern areas including
the east slopes of the Sacs, the Otero Mesa, and higher terrain
of Hudspeth county.
Southwest winds continue through the end of the work week as the
upper level low slowly lifts straight north. Dry air will scour out
any remaining moisture by Thursday. Temperatures remain warm but
below normal for this time of year.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 94 67 93 / 20 40 70 10
Sierra Blanca 60 85 58 86 / 20 40 70 30
Las Cruces 65 92 61 91 / 20 40 60 10
Alamogordo 59 88 58 86 / 50 40 70 30
Cloudcroft 44 63 44 63 / 40 60 70 50
Truth or Consequences 61 87 59 86 / 30 40 60 10
Silver City 58 82 53 79 / 20 50 40 10
Deming 62 91 56 90 / 20 40 40 0
Lordsburg 62 91 55 87 / 20 30 20 0
West El Paso Metro 67 90 65 89 / 20 40 70 10
Dell City 60 88 60 89 / 20 30 60 40
Fort Hancock 64 93 61 93 / 20 40 70 20
Loma Linda 60 84 58 84 / 20 40 70 20
Fabens 66 93 63 93 / 20 40 70 10
Santa Teresa 64 90 60 88 / 20 40 70 10
White Sands HQ 67 90 64 88 / 30 40 70 20
Jornada Range 61 88 58 87 / 30 50 70 10
Hatch 62 89 58 89 / 30 40 60 10
Columbus 64 91 59 91 / 20 40 40 0
Orogrande 63 87 59 86 / 30 40 70 20
Mayhill 48 73 47 75 / 30 60 70 60
Mescalero 47 74 46 74 / 40 60 70 50
Timberon 46 73 46 73 / 30 60 70 50
Winston 52 76 50 75 / 30 60 50 20
Hillsboro 57 86 54 84 / 30 50 50 10
Spaceport 59 87 56 87 / 40 50 60 10
Lake Roberts 53 82 48 80 / 20 50 40 10
Hurley 58 88 52 85 / 30 40 30 0
Cliff 52 91 44 87 / 20 30 20 0
Mule Creek 58 86 51 83 / 20 30 20 0
Faywood 58 86 54 84 / 30 40 40 10
Animas 58 92 53 88 / 10 20 10 0
Hachita 60 91 55 88 / 20 30 20 0
Antelope Wells 58 91 55 87 / 10 20 10 0
Cloverdale 58 85 54 82 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM....35
AVIATION...35
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
935 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Have decreased PoP chances for the evening update as TSRA never
materialized. Outside of that the forecast remains on track with
partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 60s. Tomorrow another
summer like day with highs in the upper 80s and afternoon isolated
storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
A potentially similar setup to yesterday on tap for the region
the remainder of today into this evening. A weak disturbance
moving southward within the northerly flow around the rex block
across the upper midwest and low across NE may be enough to help
focus convection. CAMS initializing convection well across TN
valley and the NC/SC ridgetops with several CAMS suggesting a more
organized feature developing and trekking south to southwestward
through the evening. If that pans out, an elevated severe risk
including damaging winds and small hail could play out across much
of N. GA this evening. SPC has outlooked the region in a marginal
risk coincident with this premise. Latest surface analysis
showing over 3500 j/kg CAPE across TN Valley and 6-6.5 deg/km mid
level lapse rates extending north from GA into TN. HRRR not as
aggressive with convection much less anything organized but WRF
family seems to be latching on. Do believe there will be
convection drifting south out of TN/NC...remains to be seen how or
if it can get organized into a southward moving complex like the
FV3 and NSSL WRF suggest.
Weak surface boundary looks to lay up across the region on Tuesday
denoted in the models by higher mean RH values to the south. CAMS
again indicating convective development along that boundary with
diurnal heating on Tuesday around 18z. NBM and other guidance
highlighting it with an increased pop swath extending down I75
from TN into the metro and east along I20. With a little less
upper support, not expecting anything on the severe side Tuesday,
but its June, and June is notorious for surprises.
stellman
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Key Messages:
- A frontal boundary arrives in the region Wednesday night and it
may be the focus for precipitation on Thursday.
- Dry weather is forecast Friday and Saturday.
- A shortwave trough could bring more widespread precipitation to
the region Sunday afternoon into Monday.
The Second Half of the Workweek:
An omega blocking pattern will remain in place over the Lower 48
through the end of the workweek. Georgia will be in the southeast
corner of the blocking pattern and under the influence of a longwave
upper level trough over the East Coast. This should keep
northwesterly flow going in the mid and upper levels and push a
shortwave trough and frontal boundary into Georgia Wednesday night.
Given the above considerations our forecast is for a standard late
spring day on Wednesday, with pop up thunderstorms (25 percent
chance) in the late afternoon and highs near 90 (+ or - 3 degrees).
On Thursday conditions should be dictated by the presence of the
aforementioned frontal boundary. Expect highs in the lower 80s north
of Interstate 20 rising to 90 degree readings as you move south
towards Columbus and Macon. The frontal boundary should be a focus
for shower and thunderstorm activity, and our going forecast has
precipitation chances peaking in the 40 to 50 percent range Thursday
afternoon. A drier airmass should move in on Friday in the wake of
the surface front. Ensembles guidance from the EPS and GEFS sends PW
values crashing into the 0.4 to 0.8 inch range. Values like this
would be well below seasonal averages, and assuming the front pushes
into the Florida Panhandle we can anticipated dry weather on Friday.
Expect afternoon highs near seasonal averages Friday (mid 80s).
Next Weekend & Early Next Week:
The overarching trend through the weekend and into early next week
looks to be the weakening and eventual dissipation of the omega block
over the Lower 48. Hints of this trend can be seen in the gradual
reduction of 500 mb height anomalies in the EPS and GEFS guidance.
As this occurs it may open the door for more shortwave activity,
with both the ECMWF and GFS suggesting a wave during the
Sunday/Monday time window. This deterministic guidance correlates
well with the EPS and GEFS guidance, as the majority of the ensemble
members indicate accumulating precipitation during this time window
as well. With these considerations in mind our forecast favors dry
weather Saturday due to lingering below average moisture
availability. Then precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon as
a potential shortwave approaches, with a peak in rain chances
expected Sunday night into Monday.
Albright
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Mainly VFR expected this evening into tonight. CAMS continue to
suggest that an isolated shower and thunderstorm could occur at
the northern sites so have maintained the TEMPO through 02Z.
Expect VFR conditions tomorrow with another round of TSRA possible
in the afternoon/evening. Winds will W-SW thru 15Z then a shift to
the NW is expected with speeds remaining less than 10kts.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on cloud deck for early morning.
High on all other elements.
28
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 64 89 66 88 / 20 30 20 30
Atlanta 67 88 68 88 / 10 20 20 20
Blairsville 58 83 58 83 / 20 20 20 30
Cartersville 63 89 63 88 / 10 30 30 20
Columbus 66 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 30
Gainesville 65 88 66 88 / 20 20 20 20
Macon 66 92 68 91 / 0 10 10 30
Rome 64 90 64 89 / 10 30 30 20
Peachtree City 64 89 66 88 / 20 20 20 20
Vidalia 65 92 71 92 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
731 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Fire Weather Watch will be issued for Tuesday mainly for the dry
conifer forests that are prevalent north of Newaygo and Clare. More
information can be found in the Fire Weather section.
Air quality and visibility so far has been a little better than
expected, as fortunately not as much smoke aloft has mixed down yet.
But there are pockets of air quality that are Unhealthy For
Sensitive Groups (airnow.gov), along with the 5 to 8 mile visibility
smokey haze, mainly in SE Michigan, and in Northern Lower MI, the
UP, and northern Wisconsin. That surface smoke up north should drift
through our area later this evening and overnight as prevailing
winds become more northerly. Turning to the RAP-Smoke model which
has a handle on the fires in NW Canada, much less surface smoke is
likely during the day Tue, but there will still be smoke aloft
coming from NW Canada. The sun may also be filtered through cirrus
on Tue. Latest high temperatures from the NBM for Tue came in just a
degree or two lower.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
- More seasonable temperatures Wednesday into Thursday
High pressure ridges in from the northwest during this time.
Subsidence associated with this feature will keep the weather dry.
The north to northeast flow ahead of this system will lower our
temperatures, closer to seasonable values. Normals for this time
of the year at Grand Rapids are about 77/56. Ensemble temperature
forecast from the GFS/ECMWF and CMC also support the lowering of
max temps Wednesday into Thursday.
- Chance for some showers over the weekend
When the high pressure ridge shifts east of the area, a return flow
of some moisture sets up over the weekend. Ensemble PWAT values make
a run at an inch. A cold front drops down from northwest during this
time. Aloft the models are showing some degree of troughing/closed
low arriving by Sunday that will provide at least weak lift. Weak
instability is forecast as well, mainly Sunday. Mean ensemble SB
CAPE values are low with the models showing 200 J/kg or less for
Grand Rapids. However with increased moisture, weak lift and some
instability around, we should see at least a scattering of
showers and isolated thunderstorms around. Ensemble rainfall
amounts are low, with mean values no higher than a quarter inch.
The CMC has trended stronger with a surface wave tracking up the
OH Valley and tries to lift that rainfall into the Jackson area.
That would support much higher qpf if it were to happen. We will
therefore keep the scattered showers and thunderstorms going in
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
VFR conditions should prevail through Tuesday evening. There is a
diminishing chance of smoke/haze overnight but MVFR conditions
will be isolated and of short duration. Winds this evening will be
northwest less than 10 knots, then light and variable overnight.
Winds on Tuesday will be northeast AOB 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
One period of concern for possible headlines is Tuesday afternoon.
The winds over the nearshore waters are forecast to increase as a
lake breeze moves inland. The HRRR shows the strongest winds and
would support small craft advisories. This winds would also raise
the risk for swim conditions due to the building waves. However
most models keep the winds/waves below any headline criteria. We
will blend the HRRR in with other models which still captures
strengthening winds but not quite to hazardous levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Fire weather concerns will be common this week, and the hard part
will be picking out the days that are relatively more conducive for
fires to spread out of control, with wind speeds often being the key
ingredient. The fuel conditions in the dry northern forests are of
most concern. Farther south, fires can still occur in fields and
hardwoods, but it may take stronger winds there for fire spread to
become overwhelming. After collaboration with APX and land
management agencies, will opt for a Fire Weather Watch for the dry
northern forests that are mainly north of Newaygo/Clare, despite our
winds being a little lower than traditional criteria. Winds in our
part of the state appear a little more concerning on Wed and Thu.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for MIZ037>040-043-044.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...Ostuno/Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...CAS
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
949 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of weak cold fronts will help drive scattered showers and
storms each afternoon and evening through Wednesday. Some of these
storms could pose a risk of severe weather this evening and Tuesday.
The week will start out seasonably warm, but mild temperatures
return Thursday and Friday behind the front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 947 PM EDT Monday: Did someone say busted forecast? With the
last of any notable convection fizzling out over the NC-TN border,
I`m prepared to call it a night. The 500mb speed max that was
progged to provide a roborative slug of deep shear for what should
have been ongoing discrete convection is now overhead...with nary
a rumble of thunder to be heard. It seems that the afternoon`s
persistent cloud cover - which, by the way, *still* has not fully
dissipated here at the GSP airport - sapped the environment of
its ability to initiate convection. The recent 00z HRRR has come
in with virtually no redevelopment later tonight, so no further
activity is expected tonight apart from a sprinkle here and there
across the Upstate, which at this hour will likely go as unnoticed
as I wish my unfortunate forecast would.
Despite the flop in convection, guidance continues to support a
round of fog across the NC mountains and perhaps the foothills/Blue
Ridge Escarpment zones as well. This seems fair: with dewpoints
running, if anything, higher than forecast, and lows still expected
to fall up to 3 degrees below crossovers across the mountains,
patchy fog is a no-brainer. Lows, by the way, will be around a
category below normal.
Drier air will work in after daybreak, but mainly across NC...with
the new GFS depicting the theta-e boundary stalling somewhere in
the NC Piedmont north of the state line. In light of this, there
will be enough lingering moisture for weak instability to develop
across NE GA and the Upstate. Still, without a triggering mechanism,
and sans any discernible synoptic forcing, CI will be a challenge;
indeed, the latest round of CAM guidance still has slim pickings
for tomorrow, even over the southern zones. Still have isolated
diurnal convection for these areas, but confidence isn`t great.
Even with the isolated coverage and weak instability, a few severe
storms will be possible as at least "better-than-negligible"
shear and high DCAPE values will remain in place. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday: We remain under the cyclonic flow around the
northeastern upper low component of the persistent omega blocking
pattern through the middle of the week. Today`s model guidance
shows better agreement and timing with regard to vorticity rounding
the western side of the mid-level circulation that drives yet
another sfc boundary down from the north. So, after a relatively
quiet Tuesday night, the boundary should approach thru Wednesday
and drop into the fcst area late in the day. This boundary has
a lot going for it forcing-wise, but not much thermodynamically,
if the model guidance is correct. The model response is impressive
enough to suggest ramping up to a likely to good chance of precip
from north to south in the afternoon, so a relatively big upward
adjustment was made based on the model agreement. The boundary is
slow to move thru in some of the guidance and the agreement on the
back end is still lacking, so we retain a chance of precip thru
Wednesday night and into Thursday. The lack of instability should
preclude much of a thunderstorm threat, much less anything strong to
severe. Thursday precip chances are more uncertain and could easily
be overdone if the boundary gets driven farther south and faster
as in some of the guidance. Temps will be a category above normal
for Wednesday ahead of the front, but the frontal passage cools
temps off by ten degrees or so, and back below normal, for Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 121 PM Monday: The model guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the frontal zone will finally be far enough south of the
forecast area such that precip will end quickly around sunset on
Thursday. That should give us a quiet start to the weekend as high
pressure moves in Friday and then overhead through Saturday as
the old eastern upper low gets kicked out of the Northeast. Temps
warm back to normal from Friday into Saturday. The break in the
action will probably be brief, however, as the atmosphere wants to
fall right back into the omega blocking pattern starting Sunday
with another vigorous short wave digging down across the Great
Lakes. This wave should cut off another upper low from Sunday into
Monday, in locations varying from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley
and TN valley regions. So...after a weak flat upper ridge takes
the sfc high overhead early in the weekend, we are right back
into the cyclonic flow aloft Sunday night into Monday. Moisture
and forcing both increase substantially as this happens, which
threaten to spoil our Sunday. Our precip chances will increase
accordingly, but for now only into the chance range for Sunday,
and then above climo for Monday. For this package, that comes out
to be a 60/50 mtns/Piedmont split, but one can easily imagine
widespread shower activity with the pattern shown by the model
consensus. The increased cloudiness and precip coverage should
bring temps back down below normal for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: In what remains a painfully uncertain
forecast, unexpectedly-healthy cloud cover continues to plague
the western Carolinas, and has largely prevented convective
initiation as of 00z. Many locations have finally begun to
scatter out, but we are now past the peak of daytime instability,
and although recent HRRR runs continue to depict some convection,
it`s looking increasingly isolated as a consequence of the more
anemic instability it`ll have to work with. In the latest round
of TAFs, TEMPOs were adjusted to begin around 01z in line with the
22z HRRR...and removed entirely at KAND and KHKY, where guidance
now indicates coverage will be sparse to nonexistent, in favor of
VCSH/VCTS. This has important implications for fog development,
insomuch as the lack of rainfall will likely reduce fog potential
east of the mountains; still, included VFR fog at the Upstate
terminals, MVFR fog at KHKY, and IFR fog at KAVL. The mountains
will also be under the gun for MVFR to IFR low stratus during the
predawn hours...clearing out quickly around sunrise as a cold
front drives drier air into the area and clears out the better
moisture. Light SW winds persist through the first part of the
overnight...becoming WNW by daybreak and thereafter. Can`t rule
out a round of showers tomorrow south of I-85...but confidence is
low and for now, just warranted VCSH at the southernmost terminals.
Outlook: Another cold front will arrive from the north by mid-week,
bringing increased shower and thunderstorm chances and associated
restrictions. Drier high pressure returns by the weekend.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR/RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
931 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm conditions will persist early this week before
cooler air builds in for midweek and beyond. A few showers
cannot be ruled out late Tuesday into Wednesday along a
southward advancing cold front, but otherwise dry conditions
will continue through the upcoming workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure oriented west to east across our region
will remain overnight while a cold front continues to move
southward into the southern Great Lakes. Winds will become
light to calm. Some higher level clouds will filter in from the
north overnight. Smoke from Canadian wildfires continue to
result in reduced visibility in the form of haze. Have continued
with mostly clear skies for tonight as it is difficult to
determine if enough smoke will be at a layer to cause
significant blocking of light from stars/moon. It certainly will
make the sky look hazy. Have added haze to the sensible weather
as observations are indicating it is occurring. The latest HRRR
near surface smoke forecast indicates that the haze will
likely persist into Tuesday.
Lows tonight are forecast to range from the lower 50s to the
upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Northerly mid and upper level flow with a weak shortwave
pivoting south thru the area Tuesday/Tuesday night. Associated
surface cold front to slip into ILN/s FA Tuesday afternoon.
Model solutions show only some very marginal instability
developing into the north during the afternoon -- slipping into
southern Ohio by evening. Have limited pops to slight chance for
a shower or thunderstorm. Clouds to increase with skies
becoming partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday`s highs to range from near 80 north to the lower and
middle 80s south.
The front to continue slipping south -- slipping south of the
Ohio River overnight Tuesday. Will continue low pop chances
across the south. Very marginal instability diminishes Tuesday
evening, so thunder threat wanes. Lows to range from the lower
50s north to near 60 south.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Synoptically, the previously mentioned Omega Block will still
be in place as we head into the extended, with a deep, closed
low off the coast of New England and large ridge of high
pressure over the northern Great Plains.
At the start of the period, a back door cold front will be
moving through the region from the north. A slightly higher
wedge of theta-e and PWATs accompanies this and there is decent
agreement that there will be enough ingredients in place to eek
out some rainfall. Instability looks meager and have only
included thunder in grids in far southern counties. Most areas
will stay under 0.1", however southern counties may receive
slightly higher amounts, depending on where the heaviest axis of
pcpn ends up.
After the cold front moves through the area, dry conditions
continue and temperatures moderate a bit more toward
climatological norms on Wednesday and Thursday; highs reach the
upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.
As we near the weekend, ensemble guidance indicates that the
Omega Block will finally begin to be broken up and precipitation
chances increase near the end of the weekend as a trough dives
south from Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the region overnight.
Smoke continues to be detected in the atmosphere, but trying to
figure out how opaque and where it is most concentrated at (a
certain layer) is pretty much difficult to determine due to some
dispersion. Thus, will continue with a token SCT200 in the
terminals. Also, will carry some haze at the terminals until at
least 05Z or 06Z. Will watch observational trends to see if this
will continue later than this. North to northeast winds will
become light to calm.
On Tuesday, under a north/northwest flow aloft, a weak cold
front is forecast to move south into our area. The front will be
working with a meager moisture column. But, with some weak
upper support from an embedded disturbance aloft, and some
diurnal instability, an isolated shower or thunderstorms may pop
up ahead of the front after 18Z. SCT to BKN mid clouds will
develop, along with some diurnally driven cumuliform clouds
between 6 kft and 7 kft. Winds will become west to northwest 5
to 10 knots, shifting to the north across the northern terminals
late in the period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
&&
$$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG
TERM...CA AVIATION...Hickman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
924 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
- Partly Cloudy and mild; Smoke
The upper pattern this evening shows the consistent, non-changing,
seemingly everlasting, Omega block high pressure system, now
centered over the northern plains and south central Canada. This
was resulting in highly amplified flow across the CONUS and dry
continental northerly flow into Central Indiana. Water Vapor imagery
continues to show this northerly flow along with an area of
subsidence settling over Indiana/Ohio and Illinois. At the surface,
a very large associated area of high pressure was in place from
Hudson Bay, across the Great Lakes, through the Ohio valley, all the
way to the gulf coast. GOES16 does not show any cloud cover across
Central Indiana, however, it does show extensive smoke across
Indiana/OH/Ontario and NY state. This smoke was due to wildfires in
Ontario and Quebec. Light NE surface flow was in place across
Central Indiana and dew points were very dry, in the upper 30s to
lower 40s due to mixing from daytime heating.
Little overall change is expected overnight. As heating and mixing
ends, dew points should continue to recover. Minimal temperature
advection is expected as the air mass remains rather unchanged. Thus
will trend lows at or slightly above persistence, in the middle 50s.
GOES16 does show some high clouds in place over western Ontario and
the Great Lakes, streaming southward toward Indiana. The RAP does
appear to capture this, increasing upper level RH toward 12Z. This
in combination with the smoke will result in partly cloudy skies and
conditions not quite favorable for radiational cooling.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
* Potential for smoke to mix down to the surface
* Isolated showers possible Tuesday afternoon
The main story in the near term will be hazy conditions from
Canadian smoke moving in from the northeast. Smoke has mixed down to
the surface across northern portions of the area resulting in
reduced visibilities. The RAP/HRRR suggest more smoke will mix down
through the afternoon and reduce visibilities across locations
further south. Any smoke that mixes down could remain trapped in the
low levels as forecast soundings show a strong near surface
inversion developing overnight.
Expect mostly quiet conditions through the period with surface high
pressure in place. Canadian smoke will likely be a nuisance once
again on Tuesday, mainly across the southern half of the CWA. This
smoke may limit daytime heating and high temperatures slightly. Look
for highs in the low to mid 80s. RH values will be around 30 percent
Tuesday afternoon, but 10 hour fuel moisture remain above critical
levels. Due to this, expect only an elevated fire danger with wind
gusts around 15-20 mph.
Increasing large scale ascent and some northwest moisture advection
may be enough to support isolated light showers late Tuesday.
Confidence in precipitation is low due to weak forcing.
&&
.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
No significant changes to the long range compared to previous
forecast cycles. The synoptic scale pattern remains characterized by
a broad amplifying trough over the northeastern United States, with
ridging centered over the northern plains. This places the midwest
within generally northerly flow at all levels. Cool, dry, and
occasionally smoke-laden air will flow southward through the week.
Lobes of vorticity / shortwave troughs should rotate around the main
trough axis at times. The first of these should arrive from the
north late Tuesday night or early Wednesday, with another arriving
late Thursday. The Tues/Wed lobe will be accompanied by a weak
surface front, which may have enough moisture to produce a few
showers and thunderstorms. Available moisture would be the limiting
factor, it seems, as the pre-frontal environment which we currently
find ourselves in is quite dry. Northerly flow ahead of the front
does not bode well for quality moisture return. Though some gradual
moisture convergence along the boundary itself may be sufficient.
Most guidance shows light precipitation amounts late Tuesday night,
with the greatest concentration from Indianapolis southwestward. In
terms of amounts, model average comes out to roughly a quarter of an
inch of less. Some convective elements would of course locally
enhance precipitation amounts.
By Wednesday afternoon, a reinforcing shot of cooler drier air
returns behind the front. In fact, this upcoming air mass looks very
dry...and we will likely need to adjust the dew points downward a
bit from the model blend. Relatively humidity lower than 30 percent
is likely each afternoon Wed through Fri, and local fire weather
conditions should remain elevated especially in places that do not
see rain with the front. The north to northeasterly wind direction
will also allow wildfire smoke from Canada to filter in at times.
High temps behind the front should be a bit cooler, with 850mb temps
dropping 5-10 degrees or so. Corresponding surface temps would be in
the upper 70s to near 80. Any wildfire smoke would help to suppress
highs a few degrees like today and yesterday.
Beyond that, the highly amplified upper-level flow pattern may begin
to break down a bit as hinted by ensemble guidance. A shortwave
trough and associated cold front may sweep through the region over
the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given
prerequisite of a blocked upper pattern breaking down, it is no
surprise that model consensus diverges rapidly at this point. As
such, confidence remains low in the very long range. At the very
minimum, a moderating trend in terms of temperatures is likely by
late week ahead of the next potential cold front. We will allow
temperatures to gradually rise by the weekend before introducing
chance PoPs and slightly cooler temps.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Impacts:
* Mainly VFR Conditions this TAF period
* Some potential for MVFR visibility due to smoke/HZ
Discussion:
Continued high pressure across the region will provide more dry
weather for central Indiana this TAF period. GOES imagery shows
continued smoke streaming from Quebec on NE winds. The abundant
smoke will provide some HZ and mainly thin high cloudiness.
Otherwise, forecast soundings through Tuesday continue to show a dry
column with subsidence. Smoke filtered sunshine is preventing
convective temperatures from being reached, thus no mention of CU
will be used. Furthermore, the air mass across Central Indiana
remains very dry, with dew points in the 30s, which will be
prohibitive for cloud development.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...Melo
Long Term...Eckhoff
Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
717 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Mostly dry weather continues through the rest of the work week.
The one exception may be Tuesday when a light shower or sprinkle
affects areas south of US-30. While a few clouds are possible from
time to time, smoke from wildfires in Canada will provide a milky
color to the sky at least through tonight. Chances for rain return
this upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
With an upper ridge of high pressure to our northwest and an upper
low to our east, winds between aloft and the surface will continue
to be drying winds between out of the north and east. Wildfires to
the north in Canada were creating smoke that was being carried down
to our area and have provided a smoky haze to the forecast area
today. The RAP smoke model indicates some of that may be able to
come down to the surface this afternoon into tonight with the main
hazard being reduced visibility if it does occur.
With increasing upper level clouds ahead of an approaching front,
radiational cooling is expected to be limited, which is a good thing
with dew points only the 40s to low 50s because otherwise it could
get fairly cool tonight. This setup is expected to provide a
floor for our low temperatures tonight as they stay in the 50s.
For Tuesday, a battle ground of dry and moist air resides overhead
as surface high pressure tries to nose in from the north and
moisture from the Northern Plains and Western Canada trickles
southeast ahead of a cold front collocated with the nose of an area
of sheared out vorticity. Within the continuing drought, it`ll be
hard to squeeze anything more than light rain or sprinkles. The
location with the best chance of seeing any light rain is south of
US-30. Reduced mixing owing to increased cloudiness will allow for
high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
We continue to be on the outer fringes of an upper low level low
pressure system over the northeast CONUS and eastern Canada. This
allows for continued dry air advection as winds oscillate between
northerly and easterly winds. This also allows high temperatures to
remain between the mid 70s to mid 80s for the rest of work week,
which is right around seasonable for this time of year.
With this dry air and temperatures above 70 degrees, fire danger may
be on the docket, but gusty winds appear to be the limiting factor
at this point. There is an area of higher winds collocated with a
low level jet that slides southward along Lake Michigan that
could affect portions of our forecast area along and west of US-31
on Wednesday, but that`s a short period between 20 and 01z in the
evening. Additionally, Thursday could see some higher gusts over
a larger portion of the forecast area and for much more of the
day.
Low level theta-e air increases this weekend between Saturday and
Sunday, and mid-range models are keying into that period as our next
chance for rain as a cold front seeps south. As long as it departs
the forecast area into Monday morning, instability would be kept
at a minimum. Much later than that and there could be more
instability to work with. Guidance does have a connection to the
Gulf of Mexico`s moisture pool so perhaps we may be able to eek
out a rain chance with this setup.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
No changes to the TAFs with this issuance. High clouds will
gradually increase in coverage as a cold front approaches. There
is a very low chance of a rain shower after 18z Tuesday, but
ensemble forecasts show very isolated coverage, and deterministic
forecast soundings show varying levels of saturation. Given the
current drought, I prefer to pass this rain chance on to future
issuances.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...Roller
LONG TERM...Roller
AVIATION...Brown
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
952 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Smokiness will increase in our skies after midnight tonight and last
well into Tuesday morning. Even at the surface observations in
Indiana and Ohio have consistently been showing visibilities of 3-5
miles...with KILN earlier this evening dropping to two and a half
miles visibility with a temp/dew point spread of 75/34.
No changes are needed to the forecast at this time with few clouds
and light winds expected overnight. The mostly clear skies and smoke
aloft may result in another good night for moon watching, similar to
last night, especially in southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. Moonrise tonight will generally be between 11:10 and
11:30pm EDT...10:10 and 10:30pm CDT...depending on location.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Main forecast challenge through the short term will be impacts, if
any, from the wildfire smoke out of Canada. Current visible
satellite imagery shows high clouds associated with a vorticity
ribbon dropping south through northern IL, central IN into southern
OH. Behind this feature you can see a concentration of smoke from
the wildfires burning in Quebec, Canada. This plume of smoke will
remain on a south-southwest trajectory as it moves between the upper-
level blocking features of a closed low over New England and
blocking high over the Dakotas. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke
forecast along with the associated cross section shows a high
concentration of smoke (between 825-950mb) moving across southern
IN into north central KY tonight through tomorrow morning. Impacts
to the sfc seem low, but can`t rule out the possibility of some
isolated minor impacts. Mainly the smell of smoke and slightly lower
visibility. Both the 12z HRRR and HREF take this into account in
their visibility product lowering visibility few miles down to
between 6 and 9 miles. After collaborating with surrounding offices,
and looking at current upstream observations where the main smoke
plume currently is located, decided to continue the trend of
mentioning just haze tonight into tomorrow.
Smoky haze may impact radiational cooling overnight so tweaked
overnight lows up just a bit. Very dry air to our north across
central and parts of southern IN will continue to work south across
southern IN/northern & central KY tonight into tomorrow morning.
Currently dew points were in the 40s with even a few 30s across
central IN this afternoon. Expect to see dew points drop from the
50s and 60s they currently are down into the 40s and low 50s
overnight. Went with lows in the mid/upper 50s and a few isolated
locations at 60.
The New England upper low will start to slowly retrograde westward
tonight into tomorrow. An upper level wave pinwheeling around the
low will drop south over the Great Lakes during the day tomorrow as
a backdoor cold front slowly drops south out ahead of the upper wave
and across northern & central IN. Some of the hi-res short range
models want to print out isolated to scattered showers by late
afternoon/evening ahead of the front across our southern IN
counties. After looking at model soundings and humidity cross
sections showing dry air near the surface. It would take some time
for any afternoon or early evening shower to overcome this dry air
for there to be any precipitation. Clouds will increase to our north
during the day but decided to keep the rain chances out of the
forecast for now. With increasing clouds and remaining haze from
wildfire smoke, decided to also lower highs tomorrow a few degrees
in the low/mid 80s.
.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
By Tuesday night, a backdoor cold front will begin approaching the
region from the northeast. Isentropic surfaces near ~305K show good
co-location of moisture and lift ahead of the front, and models prog
some light to moderate precipitation to develop within this region
to our north/northwest Tuesday night and gradually push into the CWA
Wednesday morning. This type of setup will certainly allow for a
good portion of the area to potentially receive some rainfall,
though overall amounts won`t put much of a dent in the recent
deficits we`ve observed (forecast QPF is generally in the 0.10-0.25"
range with isolated higher swaths).
Instability will be at a minimum early Wednesday morning so some
embedded storms could be possible. We`re likely to see better
instability develop later in the day as moisture pools ahead of the
front and low level lapse rates slightly steepen from surface
heating, but by the time more storms could form along the frontal
boundary, it might be south of the CWA into Tennessee. Any severe
weather threat in our region looks to be extremely low.
Canadian high pressure will then settle over the Great Lakes region
and result in dry and pleasant conditions per early June standards.
Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in
the 40s(!), though a gradual warm-up will take place as surface flow
turns more southerly into the weekend. It`s around the weekend that
we`ll also see our next chance for showers/storms as another frontal
boundary looks to take aim at the region.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Though we`ll be ahead of a cold front approaching very slowly from
the north during this TAF period, a weak pressure gradient will keep
winds light. Smoke drifting in from the northeast has taken surface
visibilities down into the 3-5SM range upstream across parts of
Indiana and Ohio, as close as Cincinnati. So, will continue with the
HZ mention at HNB and SDF, and introduce it to LEX, which agrees
with HRRR/RAP smoke progs. Otherwise skies will be mostly
clear/partly cloudy.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...13
Short Term...BTN
Long Term...DM
Aviation...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
653 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Through Tuesday night...
Primary forecast concern is precipitation/thunder chances
Tuesday.
As the clouds have shifted south early this afternoon, temps have
rebounded into the lower 80s away from the lake and a few mid 80s
will be possible in the next few hours. Lows tonight should be
warmer than last night especially with increasing cloud cover
later tonight, generally upper 50s/lower 60s.
Not many surface observations of haze due to smoke locally,
though still quite a few haze reports to our east. Confidence for
haze trends tonight are quite low and maintained haze mention for
now.
Precip chances will begin to increase across the northern cwa by
daybreak Tuesday morning and then continue through the day, slowly
shifting west/southwest and away from the Chicago metro area by
mid/late afternoon and then eventually just across the southwest
cwa Tuesday night. Quite a bit of uncertainty for coverage which
varies from the models with the 15z RAP quite robust with
activity, across northwest IL. Overall coverage seems to be in the
isolated range for most of the area, perhaps dry across northwest
IN. Maintained slight chance pops for now given the uncertainty.
cms
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Wednesday through Monday...
An even drier airmass will spread across the region in the wake of
Tuesday`s front, with a reinforcing boundary and lake breeze set
to surge across the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon.
PWATs are advertised to fall under a half inch, and even locally
lower--just about as low as you can go from a total column
moisture standpoint this time of year. Current thinking is that
dewpoints will be pretty aggressively mixed out on Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons, yielding another period of very low afternoon
RHs. Outside of any occasional tufts of high cirrus, conditions
look mainly sunny and quite pleasant on Wednesday and Thursday
with inland highs in the upper 70s/near 80, with upper 60/near 70
degree readings along the immediate lakeshore.
Surface high pressure begins to build a little farther to the east
on Friday which will allow a bit of warming to take place in the
925-850 mb layer. Climatology suggests low to mid 80 degree
readings should become a bit more prevalent, except right at the
lake where where gradient flow will allow for late-morning and
early-afternoon lake breeze development and attendant lake
cooling.
The sprawling Omega block is forecast to reorient a bit over the
weekend, with an ephemeral Rex-type blocking pattern developing
as the hugely-amplified central ridge axis drifts westward across
Alberta and Saskatchewan. This slight shuffle aloft looks to
(temporarily) allow more energetic northwest flow to build back
across the Great Lakes, with precipitation chances returning on
Saturday afternoon into Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the
area. The timing and coverage of these showers and storms remains
uncertain due to it being dependent on how quickly the cold front
arrives, but a 40-50 percent chance is currently forecasted. As
of right now, the showers and thunderstorms will likely enter the
region from the west/northwest on Saturday afternoon, and linger
in the area until early Sunday morning, before shifting to the
south and east as the cold front passes through the day on Sunday.
Currently, the organized severe weather threat on Saturday into
Sunday looks pretty low due to minimal instability and deep shear
values, but we`ll continue to keep an eye on things with the
potential for 25-30+ degree dewpoint depressions yielding some
degree of a gusty downburst wind potential if activity arrives
during peak heating Saturday afternoon.
Carlaw/Bjork
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Disturbance will move across the region Tuesday which could be
enough to overcome the dry air and allow for some scattered
showers to develop during the morning into the early afternoon.
Rain chances appear to be a bit higher with westward extent, so
added a PROB30 in for RFD. Later TAFs may need to introduce some
light rain chances farther east into the Chicago terminals.
Otherwise, generally light winds expected through early Thursday
morning. Lake breeze should cause winds to flip more northeasterly
Tuesday afternoon at ORD, MDW, and GYY.
- Izzi
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Warm, quiet conditions are expected to continue tomorrow thanks
to the persistence of a very dry airmass.
As has been the theme for much of the late spring, a synoptic-scale
blocking pattern continues to dominate weather conditions across
much of the CONUS, this iteration being a classic Omega-block as
opposed to a Rex block. This pattern features a very amplified ridge
of high pressure aloft extending well northward into central and
even north-central Canada, with areas of relative low pressure
located on either side of it across the southern west coast and the
northeast. While there will be fluctuations in the smaller scale
details, this pattern is expected to persist for quite some time and
will be the prevailing driver of weather across much of the
country for the next week.
Zooming in locally, much of the Mid-Mississippi Valley area is
positioned along the eastern edge of the amplified ridge, but with
gradually increasing influence of the expanding eastern U.S. trough.
Meanwhile, an anomalously dry airmass has filtered into the area,
the same airmass that has contributed to extremely dry conditions
across the Great Lakes over the past few days. While this airmass
has been modified a bit as it moves south, humidity remains low and
dewpoints are expected to continue to fall into the low 50s and even
upper 40s by the overnight period. This is notably low for early
June per local dewpoint climatology records, with precipitable water
values falling near the 10th percentile of climatology according to
the GEFS ensemble mean.
With little change in this pattern expected through at least late
Wednesday morning, dry conditions will persist overnight tonight
through tomorrow. Light winds and mostly clear skies tonight (aside
from some passing cirrus) should allow for a large diurnal
temperature swing between tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon,
with morning lows in the 50s climbing to near 90 degrees by
afternoon. In fact, it wouldn`t be a shock to see a few locations
see a temperature rise of almost 40 degrees between sunrise and mid
afternoon. Similar conditions are likely tomorrow night and
Wednesday morning as well, although a increasing cloud cover in
areas north of I-70 may keep temperatures slightly warmer here.
Otherwise, considering the minimal change expected in the upper
flow pattern tomorrow, and the prevalence of smoke evident
upstream in satellite imagery, we will likely continue to maintain
a milky sky tomorrow as Canadian wildfire smoke drifts by aloft.
This is also supported by HRRR smoke model output as well.
BRC
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
While there will be a few opportunities for precipitation Wednesday
and again over the weekend, the Omega-block pattern will persist
across the CONUS through at least early next week. This will
continue to restrict the potential for significant rain amounts,
in spite of the increasing potential for showers.
By Wednesday morning, a passing shortwave across southern Canada
will suppress the ridge slightly, while the trough across the
eastern U.S. continues to expand. The end result will be to
temporarily deamplify the Omega block just a bit, and also send a
back-door cold front into the mid-Mississippi Valley region early
in the day. While the airmass ahead of the front will remain
quite dry, moisture pooling behind the front will actually support
a modest amount of post-frontal instability during the afternoon,
introducing the potential for scattered thunderstorms. While the
quality of this moisture will be questionable without a connection
to the Gulf, model guidance continues to suggest that 1500 to
2500 J/kg of CAPE will be possible by mid afternoon, albeit with
poor mid level lapse rates. Meanwhile, upper level winds will be
modest, but the presence of 35 to 45kt northerly upper level winds
may provide just enough shear to support a few more organized
thunderstorm clusters. The overall potential for strong or severe
storms remains low, but this will need to be monitored. Otherwise,
temperatures are expected to dip slightly to within a few degrees
of seasonal averages behind the front.
Thursday and Friday, an even more anomalously dry airmass will move
into the area from the northeast, with dewpoints falling well into
the 40s and approaching single digit percentiles relative to
climatology. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain near seasonal
averages, with low humidity and a modest easterly breeze
contributing to a downright comfortable low to mid-80s.
Precipitation chances will be near zero as well, which will make for
a pleasant end to the work week, but will continue our run of well
below normal rainfall.
Over the weekend, confidence is growing that a slight shift in the
upper level flow pattern will re-introduce chances for at least
scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. However, confidence in the
details remains low, and the potential for significant, drought-
alleviating rain still appears generally muted. Beginning Friday,
the ever-present east coast upper low will finally move eastward,
but model guidance continues to suggest that it will be quickly
replaced by another digging trough from the north, all while a
highly amplified ridge re-asserts itself over the northern plains
and central Canada. As this trough digs south, another cold front is
expected to push into the area, providing a focus for one or more
rounds of showers and thunderstorms between Saturday and Sunday. At
this point, the timing of this front along with the quality of
moisture ahead of it remains uncertain, and likewise there is
considerable spread among ensemble guidance regarding timing and
amounts of precipitation. However, there does not currently appear
to be a strong signal for anomalously high moisture content, and
this may limit the ceiling on just how much and how widespread this
rain will be.
BRC
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Dry and VFR flight conditions are expected at all local terminals
through the forecast period. Winds at KCOU and KJEF have taken
longer than expected to go light and variable. However, weak high
pressure moving into the area is expected to further decrease
wind speeds at these two terminals early Tuesday morning. This
same high pressure will lead to weak winds continuing during the
daylight hours Tuesday. While I do have winds prevailing out of
the east-northeast for some local terminals, I can`t rule out that
winds at all terminals remain variable through much of Tuesday.
Elmore
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1153 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes remains
nearly stationary through midweek and sends a cold front through
the area on Tuesday. The low will be near Nova Scotia Wednesday
and gradually weaken through Thursday. The weak low will then
remain near the Canadian Maritimes and along the northeast coast
Friday. Weak high pressure builds in Saturday and moves
offshore Sunday as a cold front approaches. The front moves
through the region late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is on track, with minor updates for current temperatures
and sky cover.
An upper level trough over the northeast supports the deepening
of a surface low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes
through the overnight and into the middle of the week. A wave
of energy embedded in the trough dives south into Western New
York overnight and into early Tuesday. A stray shower cannot be
ruled out overnight but chances remain minimal.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s with the warmest locations at
the coast and near NYC.
Wildfires in Quebec are producing a significant amount of smoke
that will make its way over the area overnight and into the day
on Tuesday. While much of the smoke should be above the
surface, there will likely be noticeably hazy skies on Tuesday
with a low chance of some patchy smoke near the surface, as
indicated by the HRRR smoke model fields.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level energy rotating around the base of the trough and on the
west side of the meandering low pressure will result in a cold
frontal passage into the day on Tuesday. With partly cloudy skies in
place for much of the area, there should be sufficient surface
heating and low level mixing to create some instability ahead of the
mid-level energy moving through. This may result in the development
of some showers and thunderstorms. While showers may be in the area
during the morning, the best chance for thunderstorms wont be until
the late morning and into the afternoon. The best chance of any
showers or thunderstorms will be for northern areas, mainly the
Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut. Highs will be back to
near average with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s for most.
The NYC metro and NE NJ may rise into the lower 80s.
Any showers or storms diminish by evening with improving conditions
and clearing skies. Some cloud cover may work its way back in for
northeastern areas. Lows will be in the upper 40s to near 50 inland
and in the middle to upper 50s along the coast.
Air Quality Alerts are in effect for NY and CT for Tuesday for fine
particulate matter caused by the smoke from the Canadian
wildfires.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Omega blocking will persist Wednesday into Saturday as a large
closed upper low remains over the northeast and into eastern Canada.
The low weakens Saturday and drifts northeast as additional energy
rotates into the upper trough. That low deepens and becomes closed
off Sunday and remains into Monday. Overall, the extended period
will be unsettled except for a brief dry period late Saturday into
Sunday as weak ridging builds into the northeast. Temperatures will
be generally just below seasonal normal levels, except for Sunday
with the ridge and dry weather.
There is a chance of showers Wednesday into Saturday with a slight
chance of thunderstorms inland late Thursday and Friday where there
will be better instability and forcing. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with a cold front Sunday and Monday.
Generally followed the NBM guidance except with a few adjustments to
the probabilities.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure continues to drift south of the area overnight
with a trough of low pressure remaining nearby through the early
morning. A slow moving cold front will then slowly move through on
Tuesday.
VFR prevails on Tuesday, with possible brief MVFR conditions in any
TSRA that develops for the afternoon. This possibility is currently
being handled with PROB30 groups.
Light WNW winds overnight, then increasing by late morning and the
afternoon and veering slightly with gusts 20-25 kt. The gusts subside
and end Tuesday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind directions may be off by 020 degrees at times and the timing of
gust initiation be by off by 1-2 hours on Tue. Amendments may be
needed with respect to shower and thunderstorm activity.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR with NW winds around 5 to 10kt.
Wednesday: VFR. W-NW winds G20kt.
Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early
evening showers both days.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Made minor adjustments to the ocean seas across the western
waters with seas varying between 2 to 2 1/2 feet with an
easterly swell.
Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels Wednesday through
Saturday night as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes
weakens through Thursday. Weak low pressure will then remain in
the vicinity of the forecast waters through Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Deepening low pressure near Nova Scotia was producing an easterly
swell, in addition to Ekman transport with a prolonged northerly
offshore flow. Guidance continues to indicate water levels during
tonight`s high tide cycles will should be higher than recent high
tide cycles. Water levels at Freeport may reach moderate flood
benchmarks. Advisories and statements remain in effect for the south
shore of western Long Island/NY Harbor/western Sound areas.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches through this evening. There is a low risk for
the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-
075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Latest satellite shows smoke in the mid levels has spread across
across all but southwest portions of the PAH forecast area early
this afternoon. The HRRR indicates increasing density of this
smoke mainly east of the Mississippi River late this afternoon
into the overnight hours. We may see visibilities around 6 miles
this evening and overnight, and drops to MVFR are not out of the
question, but it seems continuing hazy conditions through at least
tomorrow will suffice for now.
Surface analysis shows a boundary/dry line has moved just south
of the PAH forecast area, evidenced by dew points near 60 degrees
in southern portions of west Kentucky and southeast Missouri, and
in the middle to upper 60s very close by in west Tennessee and
northeast Arkansas. The arrival of this drier air will keep our
region dry through Tuesday evening. This will also result in large
temperatures swings, with lows tonight dropping into the upper
50s to around 60 degrees, with highs Tuesday again around 90
degrees. Low temperatures Tuesday night will moderate back to
seasonable readings in the lower 60s.
By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak cold front will sag
south into our region as an upper level trof moves over the lower
Ohio Valley. This will give the PAH fa decent chances of showers
and thunderstorms, but lacking moisture will keep rainfall amounts
mostly around a tenth of an inch or less. Went with PoPs mostly in
the 30-40 percent range by Wednesday afternoon, then continued
slight chance PoPs into Wednesday evening across southeast
Missouri and portions of west Kentucky. We will see a wide
temperature range Wednesday, with highs from the upper 70s in
southwest Indiana, to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees in
southeast Missouri. Lows Wednesday night will cool to below normal
readings, from the middle 50s north to the lower 60s southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
The cooler air will continue to filter in Thursday as surface high
pressure builds southward from the Great Lakes region. Seasonable
temperatures can be expected Thursday in the lower to middle 80s,
with below normal temperatures Thursday night in the middle to
upper 50s.
The surface high will move off to our east Friday into Friday
night, then off the central East Coast Saturday. This will allow
the approach of our next weather system. Models show a surface low
moving over the middle Mississippi valley by 12z Sunday as an
upper level trof approaches our region from the northwest. The NBM
brings slight chances of showers and thunderstorms into the
western half of the PAH fa Saturday afternoon, with chances
increasing and spreading east across the rest our our area
Saturday night. Our best chances will be Sunday afternoon when we
have chances in the likely category. Chances will taper off from
northwest to southeast Sunday night, but small chances of showers
will linger into Monday across all but our northwest counties.
Rainfall totals are currently forecast to be in the half inch to
three quarter inch range, which will be quite welcome considering
our very dry conditions. Temperatures will generally be within a
few degrees of normal Friday through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Mostly vfr conditions will continue through this taf period. Areas
of smoke from Quebec province forest fires will limit vsby slightly
at times. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations
indicated a concentrated area of smoke was over central and northern
Indiana at 23z, where mvfr vsbys were occurring in places. This
smoke is drifting southwestward. Vsbys may occasionally fall to mvfr
at the taf sites overnight and early Tuesdsay. The highest chance of
mvfr vsbys appears to be around kmvn, which is where the tafs will
contain mvfr vsbys tonight and early Tuesday.
Winds will be northeast around 5 knots. No clouds other than some
high cirrus clouds are expected tonight, followed by a few high-
based cumulus clouds on Tuesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
915 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
The forecast is on track for this evening. A stray shower may
occur over the next hour or two. Winds will be light or calm
overnight. Temperatures have been adjusted a little given that the
air is cooler in some locations from the showers that occurred
earlier this afternoon/evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
As we head into Tuesday, the low to mid-level flow will begin to
veer around to the south as high pressure moves to the east. The
column will gradually moisten, with quite a PWAT gradient evident on
the model guidance Tuesday afternoon, ranging from 1" in Southwest
Georgia to over 1.5" in the Florida Counties. Meanwhile, the
southerly component to the flow will promote a more roust sea-breeze
circulation, especially across the Floria Panhandle. This is where
the highest coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms are
expected. As such, PoPs are up to 50 percent, and the slow moving
storms could produce enough rainfall for minor, localized flooding.
Elsewhere, PoPs are generally at or below 20 pct. But if the sharp
gradient in moisture sets up further northeast, we may need to
increase PoPs in the FL Big Bend and further north into Southeast
Alabama and Southwest Georgia in subsequent forecasts. Temperatures
and humidity levels will be typical of early June.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Upper level troughing holds through the period, although flow is
forecast to switch to the south ushering in some moisture.
This will put us near climatological PoP for Wednesday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon
and evening. Highs for Wednesday will range from the mid 80s to
near 90. Lows for Wednesday night will be in the upper 60s to low
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
The upper level troughing continues to dominate in the long term.
The most notable features are improved upper level support and
perhaps a weak frontal system that tries to squeeze through
Thursday and Friday. This could allow for stronger thunderstorms
to develop, with gusty winds being the primary threat. Heading
into the weekend, upper level support falter and drier air moves
in. This should keep showers and storm chances to around 30% or
less during the afternoons and evenings.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
A few small storms popped up near TLH the past hr and outflow
boundaries are apparent in the terminal`s vicinity. Therefore,
VCTS is shown prevailing until 2Z, but activity could wane sooner.
Otherwise, VFR conds prevail. Winds go lgt tonight, then turn
S to SW by midday. Confidence in thunder is still highest at ECP
tmrw afternoon. The latest CAMs & 18Z HRRR suggest scattered
SHRA/TSRA areawide (esp along the I-10 corridor) so have VCTS at
the other sites starting 18-20Z. Confidence is lowest at DHN/ABY.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
Seas 2 feet or less are expected through the period with light
southeast winds through the day Tuesday and generally remaining
southerly becoming a moderate southwesterly to westerly by the end
of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day, which may lead to isolated areas of higher seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
The air mass gradually moistens through midweek with a return to
daily showers and thunderstorms. The main fire weather concern
will be a return to high dispersions on Tuesday for portions of
Southwest Georgia due to seasonably high mixing heights and
increasing southwest transport winds. This trend may continue
into midweek, with high dispersions across portions of Florida and
Georgia as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
There are no significant flooding issues over the next several
days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 67 90 67 88 / 10 20 0 40
Panama City 69 85 70 84 / 10 30 10 30
Dothan 66 90 67 88 / 0 20 10 30
Albany 66 92 68 90 / 0 10 0 20
Valdosta 64 91 67 88 / 0 10 0 30
Cross City 63 90 67 87 / 10 20 20 40
Apalachicola 70 82 70 82 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...KR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
811 PM PDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated convection will occur today over the high
terrain in Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln counties which could
produce some gusty outflows in those areas. Elsewhere, partly
cloudy skies and above average temperatures continue with KLAS on
100-watch. After today, temperatures drop substantially to well
below normal and remain there through the next several days. Isolated
thunderstorm probabilities continue through the week, mostly for
the Sierra and central Nevada.
&&
.UPDATE...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely
continue well past midnight across Inyo County and south central
Nevada as upper low stalls over southern California. Main impact
from the storms today as been gusty winds as several sites have
recorded peak winds of 50-55 mph. Will send out an update for the
rest of tonight.
Upper low will remain stationary over southern California tomorrow.
Models do show drier air getting wrapped into the low over southern
Nevada and northwest Arizona which should limit convection. The only
exception will be over the southern Sierra/Owen Valley. Cooler
tomorrow, highs some 5-8 degrees lower than today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow.
Another day of isolated thunderstorms looks likely for the high
terrain areas of Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln counties for
the most part. Synoptically, a weak but broad area of UL lifting
is overhead due to closed low off the coast of California. This,
coupled with marginal instability should again produce storms
through the afternoon in these areas. As of 18Z, GOES satellite
indicated cu in these areas, very much in line with the 12Z HREF
CI timing. Of note from the 12Z suite of hi-res model inputs, the
HRRR/FV3 both produced a stout outflow generated from a storm
originating in the White Mountains, that could come to impact KBIH
later this afternoon. Opted to make these modifications in the TAF
and grids as well for the Bishop area. The higher end estimates
were around 40 mph gusts, but this would all be due to one
particular storm, so tempered the deterministic forecast a bit to
account for that uncertainty. Elsewhere, QPF will be a bit hard to
come by given HRRR forecast soundings showed very little SB or
MLCAPE, meager mid level lapse rates, and only mid level moisture
to tap into. Inverted V profiles in some cases above 600 mb will
be very hard to rain through. Surface dew points should continue
to tank as low level dry air filters in from the south and
southeast this afternoon, hopefully scouring out any storm
potential for Clark County and south.
Outside of storm potential, the forecast high of 99 will be
closely watched by many as the prospect of 100 will be on the
minds of many. This is particularly interesting because...as
discussed in the long term...below normal temperatures are set to
stay through the end of the month, and that *could* mean that
today is the best probability for 100 for the rest of the month.
The current record for the latest first 100 for KLAS is June 30th,
so that might be in play if today doesn`t reach the century mark.
Per the 13Z NBM, the probability for 100 this afternoon is ~10%,
meaning 90% of the outcomes it produces kept the high at 99 or
below.
After today, much cooler temperatures will be in store compared to
today and the weekend as the low comes on shore and approached the
Great Basin. This will continue to keep the Sierra in focus for
additional thunderstorm development under the low with low top
convection expected. WPC has indicated the Sierra in a "marginal"
risk for heavy rainfall through Day 5 as a result, with even some
very high terrain new snow possible each day as well.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.
Not our typical June pattern forecast through the long term as
ensemble simulations continue to advertise a persistent trough over
the region. Lower than normal heights will keep temperatures some 5-
10 degrees below normal. Mid-level moisture and cooler temperatures
aloft will lead to daily convection primarily over the southern
Sierra and central Nevada mountains. However over the upcoming
weekend, its possible that threat could extent further south into
Spring Mountains and mountains of northwest Arizona. One benefit
from the cooler than normal temperatures is that snowmelt runoff
will stay reduced below what could be otherwise occurring at this
time of year.
Looking beyond Sunday. It looks as if the area will be locked in
this pattern well into the second full week of June as CPC shows a
higher chance of below normal temperatures and a higher chance of
above normal precipitation persisting through June 18.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty southeast winds are expected
through much of the afternoon hours, with variability in direction
between 120-170 through sunset. Gust potential could reach as high
as 30 kts at times this afternoon as well. After sunset, winds are
expected to diminish below 10 kts and shift to a more south-
southwest orientation overnight. Southeast winds are expected to
return again by tomorrow morning, with lesser gust potential than
today...up to 20 kts.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty afternoon winds are expected for all terminals
today, with isolated TSRA possible in the vicinity of KBIH. KBIH
may also experience some strong gusty outflow winds after 23Z this
afternoon due to vicinity TSRA. Elsewhere, winds are expected to
generally subside after sunset with similar conditions expected
tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pierce
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...TB3
LONG TERM...Pierce
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