Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/04/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Large area of high pressure centered over Eastern Canada continues
to build into much of the Great Lakes region late this evening in
the wake of a cold front that passed thru our area overnight and
today. Plenty of smoke continues to stream into and across our CWA
much of which is originating from the many wildfires in progress
across Eastern Canada...with additional smoke supplied by ongoing
wildfires near Grayling and in Northern Iosco county. Latest HRRR
suggest this smoke will gradually diminish from SE to NW
overnight into Sunday morning. Am a bit concerned that this
process may be delayed due to the building subsidence and
nocturnal inversion overnight. Will make adjustments to the
forecast accordingly. Arrival of cooler air behind the cold front
combined with mainly clear skies will allow temps to cool into the
upper 40s and lower 50s overnight.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
...Fire weather conditions improve this evening...
High Impact Weather Potential...Showers/t-storms possible near MBL
into early evening. Near critical fire wx parameters s-central and
se areas into early evening.
High pressure is well off to our ne, with dry ne-erly low-level
flow emanating off the high. A band of thicker haze/smoke (some of
which is aloft) from Quebec wildfires is encroaching on eastern
upper and ne lower MI. Vsbys have been improving in northern lower
MI this afternoon, but 4-5SM vsbys are still common in the Straits
area and north, where marine influences are limiting vertical
mixing. There is a wildfire in progress se of Grayling; the smoke
plume has been evident on radar and visible satellite. Deep
convection has developed in southern Manistee Co; locally heavy
rains have been seen here. So a fair bit going on this afternoon.
M-55 w of CAD is the only place with cumulus clouds. Additional
convection should be confined to Manistee and Wexford Cos.
Instability will diminish with loss of diurnal heating this
evening. Do not have any precip past 8pm.
Sustained winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20 mph is just enough to
support an enhanced wildfire threat, given antecedent very dry
conditions. Winds have been somewhat wobbly; Grayling was showing
an east wind during the wildfire`s initial growth, but is most
recently ne. Passing horizontal convective rolls (evident on
radar, even with no actual associated cu) are likely contributing
to the wavering winds. That wavering will continue, but a ne wind
should be more common/frequent than an e wind. Winds speeds will
start to gradually relax after 7pm.
Actual cloud cover will tend to decrease from e to w, as drier
air makes a better push into northern MI tonight. Haze/smoke
aloft will maintain more in the way apparent cloud cover thru this
evening. Overnight, haze-smoke levels should decrease in northern
lower MI from e to w. Haze/smoke will be more stubborn to depart
eastern upper MI.
Cooler min temps tonight. Low as cool as the mid 40s in the Au
Sable Valley, upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
...Progressively Cooler Daytime Temperatures...
Primary Forecast Concerns...Temperatures.
High Impact Weather...Fire weather concerns.
Upper level ridging will continue to retrograde west allowing for
height falls/cooler air to settle in across the region through the
period. In addition, a surface cold front slides across the region
from north to south overnight Sunday into Monday morning. High
resolution guidance even shows a few light showers or sprinkles
accompanying the front but nothing long lasting or substantial is
expected unfortunately. Surface high pressure originating across the
far reaches of Canada will eventually settle south and bring much
cooler low level air into northern Michigan.
Hazy skies are possible again Sunday from wildfire smoke from
Canada. The flow aloft is a bit more northerly (versus northeast
today) so a majority of this smoke may not make it into northern
Michigan. Daytime temperatures will continue to cool and end up near
"climatological normals" by Tuesday. Highs Sunday ranging from the
mid 70s to low 80s, the mid 70s to around 80 Monday then only the
upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday. Lows at night in the low and mid 50s
Sunday night and the mid 40s to low 50s Monday night.
Fire weather remains a concern into early next week due to the lack
of widespread rainfall over the past few weeks. It appears that red
flag conditions will fall just short of criteria Sunday due to
sustained winds staying below the 15 mph (at raw weather observation
sites) to 20 mph (at ASOS sites) thresholds. Temperatures (75
degrees) and min relative humidity (25 percent) both look like they
will be met Sunday afternoon. Regardless, fire danger will likely
remain in the very high to extreme range over the next several days.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
...Seasonably Cool then Turning Warmer...
High Impact Weather...Patchy frost cannot be ruled out Tuesday and
Wednesday nights.
It is expected to remain seasonably cool Wednesday. This will be
followed by a slow moderation upward in temperatures through the
long term as the region gets into a warmer southwest surface flow on
the back side of retreating high pressure. Can`t rule out patchy
frost Tuesday and/or Wednesday night, through not sure winds will
decouple with the surface pressure gradient on the decent side.
Little to no rain through the long term, though low chance pops
enter into the forecast next Friday night into Saturday in
association with an approaching cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Large area of high pressure originating in Eastern Canada is
building into much of the Great Lakes region in the wake of a weak
moisture-starved cold front that passed thru Northern Michigan
today. Dry conditions are expected thru Sunday night...but plenty
of smoke and some lingering high clouds will keep skies
"milky/hazy". Some MVFR vsbys are also expected overnight and
into Sunday morning due to smoke and haze. Surface winds will
remain generally from the east AOB 10 kts thru Sunday...with lake
breeze development expected again by Sunday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
High pressure to our n and ne will provide east-northeast winds
thru the weekend. While somewhat breezy at times (especially
today), winds/waves look to remain just shy of Small Craft
Advisory criteria. They will get closest on Lake Huron south of
Sturgeon Point. Sub- advisory criteria continues into early next
week as winds turn northerly behind a moisture starved cold front
that crosses northern MI Sunday night.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Key Messages:
- Staying warm for Sunday, with lower chances for
isolated/scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon.
- Cold front dropping through the area may bring another chance
for showers and storms Monday into Tuesday, with more
seasonable temperatures expected to follow through the rest of
the week.
End of the Weekend:
The upper level ridge over the Upper Midwest/south-central Canada
will continue to slide westward into the Northern Plains Sunday
as upper level low pressure deepens over the northeast. Sunday
looks to remain warm again, with highs mainly in the mid to upper
80s for most. However, as mentioned earlier guidance (RAP, HRRR)
suggests an area of slightly drier surface dewpoints in the low to
mid 50s. This should help to keep conditions fairly comfortable,
with max heat indices looking to keep closer to the apparent
temperature. As for precipitation chances, there is still
suggestion in some of the guidance for a weak upper level ripple
that could help to provide some low chances for isolated/scattered
showers and storms. Although, with the drier airmass and in turn
less instability current 03.12Z HREF guidance shows much less
coverage compared to runs/previous days, keeping lower confidence
in chances/coverage of precipitation for Sunday.
NOTE: A look at HRRR and RAP vertically integrated smoke shows a
plume diving down from Canada and over the Great Lakes region
overnight and into the day Sunday. Both the HRRR and RAP suggest
this will possibly spread just into portions of our Wisconsin
counties, with greatest values of vertically integrated smoke
remaining mainly to our east. Will continue to monitor this, but for
now not expecting significant impacts.
Through the Week:
Guidance continues to be in good agreement on the overall upper
level pattern for the medium range. The blocking pattern looks to
remain with a strong upper level ridge between an upper level low
over California and the other over the Northeastern CONUS. At the
surface, model guidances suggests a back door cold front dropping
down across the region Monday into Tuesday. This looks to be the
next chance for precipitation, with most current hi-res guidance
showing showers and storms focusing ahead of this front. This is
towards the end of the hi-res guidance, so still some details to
resolve with timing and precip amounts. However, looking at
ensemble guidance, the GEFS ensembles have consistently been the
wetter solutions with probabilities of 24-hr QPF >= 0.1 inches
holding near 50-80% for some portions of the area. Although, this
does drop to only 20-40% for >= 0.25 inches. The ECMWF ensembles
on the otherhand continue to be a bit less excited, with
probabilities remaining around 10-40% for QPF >= 0.1 inches. Will
continue with the blended model guidance, but expecting there will be
some updates in timing and details as we near closer. Behind this
front, temperatures decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with
highs remaining more near seasonable through the week.
There looks to possibly be a break mid-week, with GEFS/ECMWF
ensemble solutions showing very little in the way of QPF Wednesday
into Thursday. Although some details to work out in the upper level
pattern, waves of shortwave energy/surface fronts may provide some
focus for increased shower and storm chances across the area towards
the end of the week and heading into the weekend. Lower confidence
this far out, so will continue to monitor trends for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Latest high-resolution smoke dispersion models suggest higher
concentrations of near-surface smoke, predominately east of the
Mississippi River. Opted to include a VFR, 6 mile HZ line at LSE
for this potential. Upstream observations on Saturday evening did
have a few 5mi visibility reductions, but confidence is low on
this potential at LSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMS
AVIATION...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1019 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
As dry Canadian air overspreads the region, it will be cooler
for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will bump up slightly
Monday, only to settle back to below average during midweek as
an upper level low spins over the Northeast. This feature will
also cause scattered showers each day, though amounts look to
be light.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM Update...
No significant changes were made with this update. Will be
evaluating satellite trends and the 00z HRRR data to see if
smoke and/or haze should be added into the forecast either on
Sunday morning, or perhaps on Monday. Not enough confidence to
do so just yet. If it does move over portions of our CWA, the
data supports it being smoke aloft, with minimal impact
expected. Otherwise, very minor adjustments were made to sky
cover and PoPs Monday into Monday evening based on the latest
NBM data. PoPs were lowered a touch, as most of the guidance is
now showing it remaining dry through sunset Monday.
645 PM Update...
A few isolated stronger storms (even dropping some hail)
occurred earlier today in NE PA. Now, the radar is showing a
line of storms south of Luzerne county, continuing to drift
southward away from our area. Therefore, am now expecting fairly
quiet weather the rest of this evening, tonight and right into Sunday.
Skies look to clear overnight under a dry northeasterly flow.
It does look rather cool, with overnight lows in the 40s areawide
(can`t rule out some localized upper 30s out in the Catskills too).
GOES East Geocolor satellite loop is showing hints at some
smoke aloft moving across CNY and NE PA from the north this
evening as well. However, the thicker smoke looks to be in a
band extending from western PA northwestward into much of
Michigan; especially the north-central lower Peninsula. Based on
the 18-20z runs of the HRRR, vertically integrated smoke
output; most of the smoke from the wildfires in Quebec looks to
stay away from our area overnight. Then, the HRRR guidance does
bring smoke/haze aloft along and west of I-81 Sunday morning,
before sweeping it west/southwest and out of our CWA by Sunday
afternoon.
Otherwise, Sunday looks to start off sunny, with some
clouds moving in from the east during the afternoon on the
outside periphery of an upper level low over New England. Mild
with highs between 65-75 expected Sunday afternoon. North winds
will be touch breezy at 8-15 mph through the day.
220 PM Update...
Isolated showers and perhaps a small storm cell or two will be
briefly possible in Northeast PA this afternoon, but otherwise
the main theme for the rest of the weekend will cooler dry air
overtaking the region.
Diurnal instability is still trying to eke out new convective
cells from the NY-PA border counties southward during mid-
afternoon. This is occurring as a compact upper low drops south
across New England, with 500mb height falls on its perimeter;
including cold air advection slipping in behind as a backdoor
cold front. However, a small window of diurnal heating is still
generate some instability in Northeast PA. SPC mesoanalysis
shows now what the RAP13 model has been depicting ahead of time,
and that is mixed layer Convective Available Potential Energy
(CAPE) values reaching 1200-1800 J/kg in Northeast PA,
especially towards Luzerne County. We will continue to monitor
the few pop up showers-isolated thunder, though very dry mid to
upper level air is also pressing southward across the region as
evidenced by GOES-East water vapor imagery. This is greatly
limiting coverage of convective cells, as they become entrained
by the copious dry air above 10 kft agl shortly after climbing.
However, this dry midlevel air could also promote gusty winds
mixing down from storm cores.
Tonight, 850 mb temperatures drop down to near 0C though
surface winds will likely stay elevated with the steep low level
lapse rates so overnight lows will stay in the mid to upper
40s. A few spots that do decouple and have clear skies could
touch the upper 30s, mainly in the Tug Hill and at higher
elevations in the Catskills.
Full sunshine is expected for the I-81 corridor westward on
Sunday. To the east, cold air aloft and proximity to the upper
low centered over coastal New England, will allow a layer of diurnal
cumulus to develop; though still mixed with sun. Highs will be
in the mid 60s to mid 70s with a north wind gusting to 10-20 mph
at times. Then for Sunday night, lows again will be mainly 40s
with the sky going mostly clear for a good chunk of the time,
before some high clouds move in from the west towards dawn.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
330PM Update...
Weak high pressure makes its way into Monday keeping conditions
dry for one more day before a cold frontal boundary passes
through overnight. Calm northwest winds are expected at the
start of the day gradually increasing to 10kts in the afternoon.
Based off of recent trends and dry soils, temperatures were
adjusted up using the higher end of ensemble guidance.
Temperatures are expected to range from 70-80 during the day and
fall rapidly into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight behind the
front. Despite there being lift with the frontal passage, there
is not a lot of moisture available to kick off any promising
rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM Update...
An upper level low over Maine/Nova Scotia spins in place throughout
most of this week. Several disturbances associated with the low
are expected. These could provide enough moisture/lift to
potentially induce instability driven showers each day in the
afternoon/early evening. At this time, Tuesday appears to be the
most promising in terms of instability with a few rumbles of
thunder possible. GFS sounding shows CAPE values of 383 J/KG
with steep level lapse rates present. QPF overall continues to
look rather light given the continued lack of deep moisture.
The upper level low dominating this period keeps temperatures
cooler with highs only in the 60`s and 70s for most of the
week.
In terms of more promising precipitation, models seem to agree on
rain showers sometime Thursday night into Friday morning as the
upper level low sends a short wave into our region. Models suggest a
decent amount of moisture present to support these showers. The
influence of the upper level low looks to shift east of the
region Friday. A ridge appears to build in behind it lowering
precipitation chances and moderating temperatures over the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24
hours. Gusty west to northeasterly winds will become light and
variable overnight, mainly varying between east and north.
Through the morning hours, northerly winds will gradually become
gusty once again with peak afternoon gusts between 15 and 20
kts.
Outlook...
Sunday through Thursday...Mostly VFR; Chance for showers each
day, which may lead to brief restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Thunderstorms are starting to diminish across the area as the sun
is setting. Rest of the night looks to be mainly clear to partly
cloudy with lows in the upper 50s into the mid 60s. Looked at PoPs
for tomorrow. Overall thunderstorms are expected to be more
scattered tomorrow afternoon and evening. Some short term models
are hinting of a few thunderstorms by mid to late morning
especially in the east. There does seem to be a push of moisture
at about this time, although lifting appears to be weak.
Maintained only slight/isolated pops through the morning for some
of these areas given the lowered confidence.
UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Overall little needing updating this evening. Most areas are
seeing at least diurnal cumulus forming. Areas with higher MLCAPE
are seeing a few thunderstorms. There remains very little shear
across the area today. Thus the chances for severe weather remain
low, although some small hail and gusty winds are possible. Near
to shortly after sunset thunderstorm activity should diminish. Low
level jet does not appear to be much of a factor tonight, thus
look for clear to partly cloudy skies, dry conditions, and lows in
the upper 50s into the mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Well above average temperatures and isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms highlight the short term forecast period.
An upper dome of high pressure continues to dominate the weather
pattern for much of the north central US. This pattern will keep
winds aloft fairly stagnant through the short term and through
the long term as well. For this afternoon and early evening, we
will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop once
again, but likely with much less coverage than yesterday. These
will mainly be diurnally driven showers and storms, with CAMs
mainly advertising activity across the eastern third of the state,
including the James River Valley. Organized forcing is very
subtle to non existent, so development will likely be tied to
remnant outflow boundaries from yesterday`s or last night`s
convection. As the sun starts to set, this activity should
diminish rather quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Severe
weather is not anticipated as shear will remain very weak and
instability will be a bit less than yesterday. SPC Mesoanalysis
and RAP trends suggest surface based CAPE will be on the order of
1000 to 2500 J/kg but mixed layer CAPE should be a bit more
modest, on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg. So, maybe a storm or two
could produce some small hail but otherwise, the main threat will
be lightning.
After storms dissipate, expect a mostly clear and mild night with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Sunday will be rinse and repeat, with highs once again mainly in
the 80s with a few lower 90s possible. The dome of high pressure
retrogrades slightly to the west so the best chances of isolated
to scattered showers and storms will also shift west a bit. CAMs
suggest we will see a bit more coverage of showers and storms
Sunday afternoon, but severe parameters remain unimpressive,
similar to today.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
A stagnant pattern will keep temperatures well above average for
most of the long term with diurnally driven isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms.
Any ongoing showers and storms Sunday evening will once again
diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Expect very little
changes to the pattern through at least Tuesday with highs
remaining in the lower 80s to lower 90s and daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The NBM shows hardly any
spread regarding temperatures through Tuesday but we start to see
a bit more spread (but still not much) Wednesday and through the
rest of the long term. On Wednesday, the top of the ridge will
flatten a bit (but still well north of us) and a weak cold front
will move down from Canada and cross the state sometime in the
Thursday night through Friday time frame. Behind this front, we
will see a slight cool down into the weekend, but temperatures
will still be above normal as the ridge pops back up to our west.
Daily chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the end of the week and into the weekend, but
the severe weather threat remains low in this stagnant pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated
thunderstorms will be found through this evening. Confidence was
only high enough to put VCTS in the KJMS TAF at this time as
eastern ND has the better chances this evening. Tonight, skies
will generally clear with winds diminishing. VFR conditions are
then expected for Sunday. Isolated to perhaps scattered
thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday afternoon and evening.
Confidence was only high enough to place VCTS in the KJMS TAF at
this time.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...Anglin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
221 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Latest radar shows widespread light rain showers across much of
southeast WY and western NE with a few embedded heavier cells.
Latest RAP analysis continues to show limited instability, but
enough for a few brief heavier cells to continue into this evening.
Will need to monitor upper level cloud cover to see if eastern
portions of the CWA could clear up providing a little chance for
stronger thunderstorms to develop, but latest GOES imagery shows Cu
fields remaining farther east in central NE.
The main hazard headed into late this afternoon and evening will be
the Mullen Burn Scar for the development of heavier convective
cells. Hi-res guidance has been showing QPF amounts reaching 1" in
the vicinity, however have uncertainty about how obtainable that
will be with the limited instability. Observed precipitation amounts
across the CWA have been limited to mostly under a tenth of an inch
so far, but nearby observations have shown these storms` ability to
drop at least a quarter inch in an hour with training storms and
slow motions.
Fairly moist atmospheric column is in place as southeasterly mid to
upper level flow continues to draw up good moisture with multiple
passing shortwaves also passing in the flow. This increase in
moisture will continue to support tall, skinny CAPE profiles as
indicated by forecast soundings with profiles mostly remaining below
500 J/kg. This morning`s RIW sounding recorded precipitable water
around 0.8" which is near a daily max value and latest NAEFS
guidance has PW values 2-3 sigma above normal for early June. This
anomalously high moisture content looks to continue Sunday as well
with another round of precipitation with additional shortwave
passages moving up from the southeast.
While the best moisture today seems to be located mostly east of the
Laramie Range, the moisture plume Sunday looks to shift slightly
westward with a bigger focus over south-central WY. This is
reflected in NAEFS PW anomalies as well as hi-res guidance leading
to potential concerns over sensitive areas in the mountains, such as
the Mullen Burn Scar again. However, similar to today instability
should be limited.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023
An unsettled and complex pattern is expected through the long term,
with a Rex Block transitioning to an Omega Block and potentially
transitioning back to a Rex Block. Daily chances for precipitation
and comfortable temperatures are likely. Models begin to disagree on
pattern evolution towards the end of the long term forecast.
On Monday, a stout Rex Block is positioned over the central CONUS
with a high sitting over southern Canada and a low over the Southern
Plains. The GFS suggests more variable winds aloft as the high and
low fight to influence the upper-level winds over the CWA, but the
ECMWF suggests southeasterly flow dominating aloft with the high
influencing wind patterns aloft. Both models agree that vorticity
maxima will traverse across the CWA, promoting showers and
thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours. A weak 700mb jet
sets up over the area Monday afternoon and provides additional lift
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures range from the
upper-60s to low-70s west and low-70s to low-80s east.
A similar evolution is seen Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper-
level Rex Block remains stationary over the central CONUS, but
begins to deteriorate Wednesday afternoon as the low gets swept into
the flow. However, an upper-level ridge becomes sandwiched between a
low over southern California and a low over the northeastern CONUS.
This leads to the development of an Omega Block over the central
CONUS at 250mb. The Omega Block does not disrupt precipitation
chances as swaths of vorticity peel away from the upper-level low in
southern California and move across southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska. These swaths of vorticity promote daily shower and
thunderstorm chances across the CWA. Similar temperatures are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper-60s to low-
70s west and mid-70s to low-80s east.
On Thursday, the upper-level low over southern California pushes
northeast towards the Four Corners region and begins to cut off the
Omega Block. The GFS suggests that the Omega Block deteriorates by
Friday, while the ECMWF keeps an Omega Block-like pattern through
Monday. The upper-level pattern becomes messy Saturday as the GFS
and ECMWF continue to disagree rather significantly. The GFS moves
the Four Corners upper-level low northeast and undercuts an upper-
level high over southern Canada. This creates another Rex Block
across the western CONUS. Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps the Omega Block
around, though it is not as well defined. The ECMWF does not suggest
another Rex Block developing over the western CONUS.
Both the GFS and ECMWF agree that by Monday an upper-level trough
moves towards the Pacific Northwest. This trough could push the
blocking pattern off to the east and allow for a more progressive
pattern to take over. Trends will need to be monitored over the next
several days to determine if this upper-level trough will actually
move the blocking pattern off to the east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Wyoming TAFS...A weather disturbance will continue to produce
scattered to numerous showers through the period with scattered
thunderstorms into this evening. Broken clouds from 3500 to 10000
feet AGL will prevail this afternoon with thunderstorms producing
visibilities down to 4 miles. Overnight, ceilings will lower under
1000 feet AGL at Laramie and Cheyenne with visibilities in fog
from 1 to 4 miles, while Rawlins will remain VFR. MVFR ceilings
near 2500 feet AGL will continue at Laramie and Cheyenne Sunday
morning with localized visibilities around 4 miles at Laramie,
while Rawlins will continue with ceilings near 5000 feet AGL.
Nebraska TAFS...A weather disturbance will produce scattered to
numerous showers through tonight with scattered thunderstorms into
this evening. Ceilings from 600 to 1200 feet AGL will prevail
through the afternoon at Alliance, Scottsbluff and Sidney with
visibilities from 2 to 5 miles in showers and thunderstorms, with
broken clouds from 9000 to 12000 feet at Chadron. Overnight,
isolated thunderstorms will continue at Chadron and Alliance with
ceilings near 6000 feet AGL, with areas of fog developing at
Scottsbluff and Sidney reducing visibilities to 1 to 5 miles and
ceilings from 700 to 1500 feet AGL. All locations will see broken
ceilings from 4000 to 8000 feet AGL Sunday morning, except for
MVFR ceilings near 2500 feet AGL at Sidney.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Flood Watch through late tonight for WYZ101>119.
NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-
095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.AVIATION...
The sfc-700mb backdoor cold front is now expected to accelerate
through the forecast area between 06-09Z this morning. A good
amount of cold advection will occur. Most pertinent item continues
to be the amount of smoke that is descending down into the central
Great Lakes from Quebec. It remains possible the area could see some
slight restrictions in visibility after the development of the
nocturnal inversion. However, confidence remains low as without a
nearby source for smoke its difficult to imagine the particulates to
become that highly concentrated. An axis of enhanced midlevel
moisture is forecasted to sag southward through the Great Lakes
region Sunday evening and introduced BKN 5000 ft ceilings.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceilings at or below 5000ft today.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
DISCUSSION...
Mid afternoon observations indicate the truer summer feel of T/Td in
the upper 80s/lower 60s inland from the Great Lakes quickly giving
way to deep boundary layer mixing and a Td drop well down into the
50s. The effect of this is shown in 18Z hourly mesoanalysis
indicating surface based CAPE around 2000 J/kg in higher Td areas
while lowest 100 mb MLCAPE struggles to reach 1000 J/kg. Convection
so far clearly carries the lower CAPE character and this is expected
to continue for any additional development as the inverted mid level
trough/shear axis makes steady progress from east to west through
the central Great Lakes. WV satellite imagery indicates meaningful
wake subsidence filling in over SE Mi at press time to quickly close
the time window for new development by early evening.
Assessment of wildfire smoke concentration on ground conditions also
continues for this afternoon and tonight. Trends in satellite and
surface observations indicate more of a haze making it into SE Mi
this afternoon, although with additional areas yet to arrive from
Ontario and Lake Huron. Observations and web cam trends at Port
Huron tend to support HRRR smoke model concentrations more in the
haze category compared to concentrations of 35 ug/m3 or greater that
are considered more of a surface smoke layer. Haze will be in the
forecast for now while conditions are monitored going forward,
especially as the nocturnal surface based inversion develops tonight
with continued NE wind trajectory from Ontario, east of Lake Huron.
The persistent NE wind is propelled by high pressure building in
behind the hybrid differential heating surface trough/backdoor cold
front this afternoon. The trough washes out and opens the door on
cooler and less humid air coming in with dewpoint in the 40s which
helps produce comfortable low temperatures in the 50s by sunrise
Sunday.
The inbound high pressure is of average intensity but takes full
control of dry weather Sunday and Sunday night before giving way to
the next cold front Monday. Sunday afternoon highs come down into
the 70s even without considering any lingering haze/smoke
considerations. Even more impressive is Td guidance offering values
down into the 30s for RH near 20 percent. There is some boundary
layer recovery heading into Monday but that is not saying much for
moisture conditions ahead of the Monday cold front. It`s no surprise
model blended guidance remains dry as the front moves through Lower
Mi during the afternoon and evening. Strong high pressure then
follows this front which brings reinforcement of cool air and dry
weather for the mid week period.
MARINE...
Modestly higher northeast winds and drier air (smoke filled from
Ontario fires) now pushing through southern Lake Huron this
afternoon, with gusts over Saginaw Bay reaching around 25 knots. The
stronger east-northeast winds will reach Lake St. Clair/Lake Erie
this evening with some modest low level cold advection allowing for
the marginal small craft conditions to continue into the early
morning hours of Sunday.
Weaker winds, 15 knots or less should return for most of the marine
waters Sunday as a secondary high moves over northern Lake Huron,
lingering into Monday morning before a cold front races south. The
exception for Sunday looks to be across Lake Erie, where easterly
winds up around 20 knots look to persist with the long fetch.
Winds early next week behind the cold front passage look fairly
similar to this evening, but the strength of the high dropping
south from James Bay has trended weaker. None-the-less, even if
winds struggle to reach and exceed 25 knots, the moderate northerly
flow should allow waves to build aoa 4 feet over the southern Lake
Huron basin by Tuesday morning, and small craft advisories remain a
good possibility.
Cooler air settling over the Central Great Lakes during the mid week
period will likely be sufficient to maintain wind speeds in the 10
to 20 knots range out of the northwest-north.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......sf
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1056 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
We canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Dimmit County several
minutes ago and have adjusted the short term forecast for the rest of
tonight. Closely monitoring the cluster of storms across the coastal
plains as rain rates come up to 5 inches per hour over central
Fayette County. The other area we are closely monitoring is the line
of storms pushing over southern Ozona County (SJT CWA) into the
south. If this continues, the northern part of Val Verde County could
get effected by these storms during the upcoming hour. A few
thunderstorms are lingering around northern Atascosa, southern Bexar
and western Wilson County. Some of these could make it into the San
Antonio area within the next hour. We will keep closely monitoring
this activity as well.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Storms across the Rio Grande area especially entering the southwest
part of Dimmit County as of this writing to be strong to severe.
After coordinating with SPC, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued
for Dimmit County through 1 AM CDT Sunday. The main severe weather
hazards are large to very large hail up to ping pong size and wind
gusts up to 70 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Weather across the area at the present time is relatively quiet.
This morning started out cool and dry in the wake of the overnight
MCS, but dewpoints have creeped back into the 60s and 70s with
temperatures in the 80s. Skies remain partly cloudy with light
southerly winds in place. Convection chances late this afternoon and
tonight remain a low confidence forecast, but it appears there are
two main areas to watch for possible development and movement into
the CWA. The first is activity west of the Rio Grande that should
initiate after 4 pm. There will be a window for this activity to
congeal into a complex and become cold pool dominate and progress
into the western counties. Latest runs of the HRRR show this most
likely happening in the southwestern CWA near Maverick, Dimmit, and
Zavala County after 7-8 pm before likely moving into the CRP CWA by
11 pm. With this potential MCS, there is the chance for some strong
to severe winds and perhaps small hail as well. SPC has this general
area in a Slight Risk of severe storms in the latest Day 1 outlook.
The second area to watch will be possible development of showers and
storms just north of the Hill Country around 7 pm. The past few runs
of the HRRR are consistently showing this activity growing upscale
into an MCS with the system moving into the Hill Country then into
the I35 corridor after midnight. Will have to watch this, but have
increased PoPs for this area tonight to 40-50 percent for now.
Overall severe chances will be likely lower with this system but
will have to monitor for possible winds. There is a marginal risk
for this area in the Day 1 outlook.
Lows tonight will likely be in the 60s across the area. For
tomorrow, much of the forecast will be dependent on what happens
tonight. If we get a large complex moving through the area after
midnight, we will likely see less activity tomorrow afternoon with
only scattered activity possible. Latest run of the NBM has 60-70
PoPs in the north tomorrow but has not picked up the overnight
system yet. Toned PoPs tomorrow down a bit given the risk of the
overnight system. Highs will be in the 80s for much of the area.
Will keep 20 PoPs for much of the area tomorrow night. Lows will be
in the 60s to near 70 once again.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Majority of the long term forecast consists of a northwesterly flow
aloft as weak ridging establishes from Northern Mexico into the New
Mexico region. The flow eventually looks to flatten toward later in
the week and into next weekend. The precipitable water values over
the region will remain within 1 standard deviation of normal for
this time of year. The best rain and storm chances are expected to
concentrate through early week and will continue to primarily be
driven by mesoscale processes, like convective outflow and complex
propagations. Locally heavy downpours are possible with convection
through Tuesday night and this may result in the concern for some
low end flooding at times. WPC continues to highlight much of the
area under a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall through that
time. While the better rain and storm chances decline into mid to
late week, there could be enough lingering moisture and lift to
allow the opportunity for low end PoPs of around 10 to 20 percent
across the region. This includes the possible interaction with the
sea breeze.
Temperatures look to steadily warm through the long term back to
near normal by the end of the week before trending slightly above
the seasonable average into next weekend. Conditions will trend on
the humid side as well with the modest low-level onshore east to
southeast flow from off the Gulf of Mexico. However, if a convective
complex at any time is able to advance across the region in any
similar fashion as last night, then some cooler temperatures and a
more refreshing feel within the air may result as the atmosphere
would likely need some time to recharge on bringing back the warm
and more humid airmass.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
VFR conditions are expected across the I-35 sites this evening. A
cluster of storms is expected later tonight to push across the I-35
terminal and impact the San Antonio area airports around midnight and
early overnight. For KAUS, decided to go with VCTS for 02z as a storm
over the Hill Country pushes to the southeast. For KDRT, storms have
been developing for the last several hours over Mexico and now slowly
affecting the Rio Grande but not yet the KDRT. Decided to go with
VCTS for now and planning to adjust accordingly with radar trends
and new hires data. MVFR and even IFR cigs could be possible if any
of these storms move overhead the terminals. Winds will be light and
variable for the most part with the exception of thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 69 90 67 87 / 40 60 20 50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 89 65 86 / 40 60 20 50
New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 88 65 86 / 30 50 20 50
Burnet Muni Airport 67 87 65 83 / 30 60 30 50
Del Rio Intl Airport 68 91 69 90 / 40 20 10 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 67 89 65 85 / 40 60 30 50
Hondo Muni Airport 67 87 66 86 / 30 30 20 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 67 89 65 86 / 40 50 20 50
La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 87 66 85 / 40 60 30 50
San Antonio Intl Airport 69 88 67 86 / 30 40 20 40
Stinson Muni Airport 69 88 68 87 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
955 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
The showers and thunderstorms have dissipated now that the
instability decreased. Smoke was flowing in from the northeast,
restricting the visibility in places. Based on the RAP Smoke Model
the smoke will persist through much of the night. Overnight low`s
look on track as a drier airmass was flowing in from Ontario
supporting lower min temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Modified slightly from the 1106 AM Update. Four things to be
watching over the next 36 hours, in no particular order:
1. Moderate Beach Hazards
Anticipating the high-pressure induced NNE winds over Lake Michigan
to be pulled NNW this afternoon by the lake breeze circulation, and
strengthen enough to result in waves increasing to 2-4 feet along
portions of the West Michigan shore. Cold water temperatures aside,
the waves and currents should be worthy of mentioning Moderate Swim
Risk late this afternoon south of Grand Haven, including Holland
State Park and South Haven north beach.
2. Afternoon Showers or Thunderstorms
Areas of slightly richer moisture compared to yesterday may allow
scattered shower or thunderstorm development particularly in zones
of better surface convergence. Two zones favored in the background
northeast flow today include near and west of Lansing/Jackson near
I-94 (off the convergence of the diffuse Lake Huron/Erie lake
breezes) and west of US-131 near the US-31 lakeshore communities
(off the convergence of the background wind and the Lake Michigan
lake breeze). Shear is weak and convective cells will be pulse and
hit-or- miss, but will generally move or propagate toward the
southwest. Locally gusty winds from microbursts are possible due
to the inverted-V thermo profile on forecast soundings.
3. Smoke/Haze From Quebec Fires
A number of forest fires in Quebec on Friday (presumably caused by
lightning on Thursday) have fed a fairly dense plume of smoke into
the lower portion of the atmosphere, which has moved through Ontario
and into northeastern Michigan today. Generally 4 to 7 mile
visibility has been reported so far from Oscoda to Gaylord and
north, and spilling into Midland-Saginaw off the bay.
The HRRR-Smoke has captured the origination of this smoke and seems
to be timing the front of the near-surface smoke pretty well. It
suggests that near-surface smoke will move into all areas near/north
of I-96 before sunset today, and our whole area for a time
overnight, then cleaner air arrives for sunrise Sunday, only for
pockets of smoke to mix down later in the day.
The concentration of near-surface smoke modeled today in the HRRR
and also the reductions in visibility upstream suggest that the
smell of smoke may become apparent to many people this evening and
overnight. Air quality due to fine particulates (PM 2.5) may also be
reduced to Moderate or Unhealthy For Sensitive Groups. Recommend
airnow.gov for monitoring.
4. Fire Weather Conditions
Weather conditions have been on the margins of a Red Flag Warning
for fire danger for some time now, and this weekend will be no
exception. Michigan DNR reports extremely dry conditions of some
vegetation (fuels), especially in northern conifer forests. Michigan
DNR this afternoon reported a wildfire southeast of Grayling, also
seen via thermal "hot spot" on GOES-16 satellite and the smoke plume
has been evident on APX radar. Weekend campfires, depending on
jurisdiction, may be anywhere from discouraged to banned due to the
continued dry conditions. Any temporarily gustier winds today and
Sunday may encourage fires to spread out of control. The air on
Sunday, while less hot than today, looks significantly drier.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
A pattern change featuring troughing aloft and negative height
anomalies is in store for the coming week, bringing more comfortable
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (close to normal for early
June). However a cold front dropping south through the region on
Monday/Monday night ushers in another fresh installment of very dry
air so the drought conditions will only worsen and fire weather
concerns will continue to ramp up.
Dew points in the 30s and perhaps even the 20s are expected on
Tuesday and Wednesday which could lead to red flag criteria being
met when combined with northerly winds upwards of 15-20 mph.
There is a ribbon of higher PWATs and sfc dew points which
precedes/accompanies the cold frontal passage Monday. This could
result in a few showers as suggested by the NAM although most
guidance is dry with the fropa and if anything did occur it would
probably be light/scattered or just sprinkles. Otherwise another
week of completely dry weather can be expected, although there is
some hope of a few showers or storms occuring toward Friday night
and Saturday with a frontal boundary dropping in from the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Radar trends show the showers and thunderstorms around KJXN...KBTL
and KAZO are weakening. Model projections support a continuation
of this trend so that is what we will feature in the 00z TAF
issuance. An area of smoke from the Canadian wildfires was
dropping southwest into the TAF sites. Model projections also
support keeping the smoke around for much of the night,
restricting the visibilities. We will feature MVFR conditions.
Otherwise the very dry airmass that is moving in from the
northeast will act to keep the cloud cover to a minimum with
relatively high bases.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Waves may build up to the 2-4 ft range between Grand Haven and St
Joseph this evening, and swim risk may become moderate due to
waves and currents. Water temperatures are still mostly in the
50s. Winds and changes in wind direction with the daytime lake
breeze development should be pretty similar on Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Fire Weather Watch is issued for Sunday given the temperatures
around 80, relative humidity dropping to about 20 percent, and
winds from the east-northeast 10-15 gusting to 20 mph, and
extremely dry vegetation (fuels).
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...Meade
AVIATION...MJS
FIRE WEATHER...CAS
MARINE...CAS
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
A weak cold front will arrive from the northeast tonight to bring
both a 20 percent chance of a light shower, along with cooler
temperatures for Sunday. A series of additional fronts will knock
temperatures down several more degrees through mid week when we`ll
have highs seasonably in the low to mid 80s, but widespread
precipitation appears unlikely through at least Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Evening water vapor imagery indicated an elongated shortwave
stretched from eastern WI southeast across IN, tracking west. This
was responsible for earlier convection over northern IN, which
has dissipated with the loss of diurnal heating. At best a few
sprinkles may occur overnight as the wave moves through,
accompanied by a slightly higher low level dewpoint pool - upper
50s to lower 60s. This will keep lows on the mild side from the
low to mid 60s. Northeast winds still gusting around 20 mph in a
few spots this evening will subside to 5-10 mph or less overnight.
25
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
<<<<<<< Key Messages >>>>>>>
1. Trending less hot tomorrow through midweek
2. Several slight (~20%) chances for precip this week
GFS and ECMWF show a nearly stationary upper trough spinning along
the northeast coast through midweek, while simultaneously expanding
westward as multiple subtle pieces of energy dive south and across
our area to overspread central Illinois with milder temperatures.
The first feature, a slowly weakening cold front, will usher in a
slightly milder air mass tomorrow morning - simultaneously sparking
a slight chance for showers (and even a 20% chance for thunder
according to NBM); in fact, with this "back door" cold front slowing
over central/west Illinois tomorrow, there could be some additional
showers that develop mainly along and west of the Illinois River
during the afternoon, for which time frame we`ll maintain slight
(20%) PoPs across the southwest where HREF suggests 70-85% (50-60%)
probabilities for >1000 (500) J/kg of SBCAPE. Latest RAP and HRRR
guidance suggests the possibility for both lofted and near surface
smoke beginning tomorrow morning and continuing through the day as
northeast flow pulls wildfire smoke out of Nova Scotia. The
Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) forecasts another
day of moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups air quality
tomorrow, though this is also due to potential for ozone.
The second feature, a reinforcing back door cold front, looks to
arrive Sunday night into early Monday morning, but the CAMs are all
dry for this system`s arrival which seems reasonable given the
impressive dry layer evident on forecast soundings above 900mb
during that time period. One or more additional features, the
timing, placement, and moisture transport ahead of which are in
disarray among models, are forecast to arrive from the northeast
between Monday night and the end of the work week to bring nonzero
(albeit low) chances for precipitation. The EPS and CMCE remain dry
with only 8 members (of 50) from the EPS and 2 members (of 20) from
the CMCE yielding QPF before Saturday morning, while 15 (of 30) GEFS
members have precip falling over central Illinois between Tuesday
and Thursday. At this time, NBM keeps PoPs sub 15% until Friday
night when some slight chance PoPs enter our north, but there`s a
possibility we could need to tweak precip probabilities up for
one/more of those weak midweek disturbances.
Saturday into Sunday, most members within each ensemble have precip,
and NBM continues to advertise 30-50% probabilities for more than
0.25" of QPF. The NBM even suggests we`ll have around a 20-30%
chance for thunder area-wide on Saturday, which seems reasonable
given 52% (23%) of the Low Resolution Ensemble Forecast (LREF) has
nonzero (>500 J/kg) surface based CAPE -- not to mention, any
west/southwest flow at the mid levels ahead of a southward sinking
frontal boundary could bring elevated instability. Looking at and
beyond the end of the forecast period, upper flow looks to
transition from northerly/northeasterly to northwesterly, which
could bring additional opportunities for precip heading into the
following workweek, though we`d need quite a bit of widespread rain
to make up our deficit at this point...and there`s just no strong
signal for that in the extended guidance. CPC`s 8 to 14 day outlook
features a ~45% chance for below normal, 33% chance for near normal,
and 22% chance for above normal temps, along with equal chances for
below, near, and above normal precip.
Bumgardner
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
VFR conditions again this TAF cycle. Northeast winds will be
persistent, light overnight, then gusting up to 15-18 kt from
late morning through afternoon. Smoke from wildfires over eastern
Canada will filter in from the northeast toward midday. While most
of this will be aloft, there is a low chance surface visibilities
will be reduced to MVFR at times. This is currently occurring over
parts of lower MI.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
- Partly Cloudy and Mild
Surface analysis this evening shows the continued area of large high
pressure still in place over eastern Ontario and Quebec. This large
high pressure system continued to provide a northeast flow across
Central Indiana. Models today have picked up on a weak short wave
passing from NE to SW across Indiana, and this combined with daytime
heating has led to some afternoon and evening thunderstorms. These
storms were diminishing as daytime heating continued to be lost.
GOES16 shows scattered cumulus along with abundant cirrus across the
area due to the isolated convection.
Overnight, the models suggest the weak upper short wave will
continue to depart to the southwest. Subsidence is found in the wake
of this weak upper wave. This in combination with the loss of
daytime heating will lead to decreasing cloud cover overnight.
Forecast soundings overnight continue to trend toward a dry column.
Thus we expect skies to become partly cloudy to mostly clear
overnight. Dew points are slightly higher than yesterday. Thus will
trend lows mainly in the 60s, coolest NE, warmer SW, and warmest in
the Urban Heat Island of IND.
&&
.Short Term...(Through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
On the synoptic scale, anomalous high latitude midlevel
heights/ridging will continue to retrograde slightly, and one or
more weak upper level perturbations will pass over Indiana. This
will enhance mid clouds and cirrus, but northeasterly dry
cP/continental air mass will remain.
Given the dry continental air mass, deep mixing, and wind speeds of
10-15 mph this afternoon, fire spread potential may be more than
typical for early June. However, problematic fire spread should be
tempered by greenup of fine fuels and 10-hr fuel moisture ~12% or
higher.
Isolated weak convective cells may develop around peak diurnal
heating, but there are some limiting factors. Low level moisture is
limited but a slight enhancement is seen upstream in layered
satellite-derived moisture products from CIRA. This may be just
enough to support buoyant parcels surpassing subtle capping
subsident inversion and reaching their LFC. Also, weak shear and dry
entrainment will limit convective vigor and hazards should be
limited to lightning. Lightning may even be difficult to achieve. It
will take until around the time of peak mixing depth late this
afternoon for any chance of parcels overcoming inhibition, and any
convective cells should diminish by mid-evening as diabatic surface
heating wanes. Mean cloud bearing wind should carry convective cells
southwestward at around 10 mph.
Wildfire smoke from extensive fire coverage in Quebec is on
trajectory to reach our area later tonight. We`ll monitor via
satellite products and HRRR smoke model, but as it appears now a
slight increase in haziness should be the extent of the impact for
our region. Greatest opacity may come in waves (i.e., tonight and
again late tomorrow) tied to the diurnal mixing cycle at the smoke
source region. Some enhancement to the color of sunrises and sunsets
may occur.
Given recent warm bias and model blends, and slightly cooler cP air
mass arrival tomorrow, will hold temperatures closer to a hi-res
model and GFS end of the spectrum. If the temperature forecast is
erroneous in either direction, it`s likely too warm, and further
downward trending may be needed.
&&
.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
The noteworthy change in the synoptic pattern during the long
term period will be a deepening expanding trough across the
northeast part of the country. Lobes of vorticity within this trough
will periodically move through our region reinforcing relatively
cool continental air mass. Noteably, a cold front will arrive
Tuesday bringing 2-m temperature to near normal for early June for a
couple of days. Given the continental nature of the air mass in
place, precipitable water values will be below climatology and the
isolated showers or opportunity for precipitation will be nil.
Toward Friday and the weekend, medium-range guidance generally
agrees on a retrograding eastern trough and weak positively
tilted trough evolving over southern Canada. The result will be
veering/strengthening lower tropospheric flow across our region
and a warming trend. Modest moisture advection ahead of subtle
forcing may support a wetter pattern into next weekend, though
ensemble spread is large during this time period so we have the
probabilities broad in time and modest in magnitude for now.
Beyond Day 7, medium range models generally show troughing over our
region for at least a few days supporting near or below normal
temperatures and near normal precipitation, at least for the first
part of the week of the 12th.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 644 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Impacts:
* VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period
Discussion:
Isolated showers or TSRA should remain NE of the TAF sites as they
are expected to diminish in the next 1-3 hours as diurnal heating
ends.
The large Omega Block high will remain across the area through the
TAF period, generally bringing dry weather and subsidence to the TAF
sites. Forecast soundings show a dry column through the period with
convective temps being reached in the late afternoon on Sunday. With
no organized forcing available, this should lead to just some
afternoon CU. Like today, a few stray storms will be possible but
coverage and confidence on specific timing is too low to be
mentioned.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...BRB
Long Term...BRB
Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
into this evening mainly across southwest and central Nebraska.
- A few showers or thunderstorms on Sunday, then decreasing
chances for precipitation, then mainly dry until Thursday.
- Temperatures warming with readings generally at or slightly
above normal next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
The upper ridge center over southeast Manitoba Canada with the
ridge extending south into the mid Missouri Valley. An upper
trough persists across the Rockies into the Southern Plains, with
a weak closed low over sern CO/swrn KS. This is an unusual
synoptic pattern given the current storm motion.
Deep moisture remain in place across the Central Plains. The 12Z
LBF sounding indicated 1.15 inch PWAT with a deep southeast flow.
This has brought movement of showers/Tstorms northwestward this
afternoon, which will remain so this evening. The latest HRRR
shows scattered coverage this evening south of Highway 2. Any
showers that train over a location will have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding possible. This
would be fore areas near or south of I80. Should see all activity
come to an end after midnight.
On Sunday, the upper ridge will strengthen slight over western
Nebraska along with slightly drier air. A slight chance over the
area by afternoon, with higher 30 POPs across the northeast and
also west of Highway 61 in the western Sandhills. Highs 75 to 80
west the low to mid 80s east.
Still a slight chance Sunday evening, with clearing skies. Lows
from 55 to 60.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
A period of mainly dry weather is expected Monday through
Wednesday as a broad upper ridge remains in place across the
Central U.S. Could see isolated development possible during the
afternoon to early evening hours. Upper troughing across the
western U.S. will weaken the ridge across the Central Plains
Thursday through Saturday. This will bring increasing chances for
precipitation as a fairly moist environment remains in place.
Highs should range from 80 to around 85 Tuesday through Friday,
cooling slightly to around 80 by next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening,
with the potential for heavy downpours that could reduce
visibility to IFR conditions at times. Expecting showers and
thunderstorms to diminish after midnight. Winds will remain light
out of the southeast around 10kts or less.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1032 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Made some minor adjustments to going POPs/wx based on latest radar
trends as diurnal convection is managing to hold on beyond sunset
as the area lies within a good theta-e air regime. Still expecting
convection to diminish next few hours, leaving behind a quiet
remainder of the night.
Elsewhere, inherited grids/zones looked fine.
Update already issued.
25
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are firing up across the CWA
this afternoon and should continue to expand in coverage through
the next few hours prior to sunset. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook has
outlined nearly the entire CWA, apart from the far NE corner, in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Several of these ongoing
storms are showing signs of producing hail as well as gusty
winds, and these will continue to be the main threats through this
evening. Otherwise, may have to keep an eye out for some
localized flooding later this afternoon into this evening as the
lack of any real steering flow could result in localized
torrential rainfall over a short period of time.
Most of this afternoon`s convection is expected to last through
sunset, and should begin to taper off around the 9-10 PM time
frame, although a few showers could linger thereafter. Otherwise,
tonight once again looks quiet and seasonal with lows in the mid
60s to low 70s.
Tomorrow and Monday, a general weakness aloft will continue to
linger overhead which in combination with a moist and unstable
airmass will once again result in scattered to widespread
afternoon convection. For tomorrow, rain chances look best across
the western half of the region, as a weak upper level impulse is
expected to slide into the region from the west becoming a focus
for convection. Rain chances look to shift offshore tomorrow
evening into early Monday as the impulse slides south, which the
18Z HRRR seems to be picking up on fairly well. For Monday,
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are once again
expected through the afternoon, as the weakness aloft continues to
interact with the moist airmass overhead. Monday`s set up will
likely be fairly similar to today, with convection firing up in
the afternoon and dying off after sunset area-wide.
17
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
The mid to upper level pattern will be dominated by a large longwave
trough over the Eastern U.S. and weak mid to upper level ridging
over Mexico/Texas with general west to northwest flow aloft over our
region. General instability and intermittent upper level
disturbances within the flow will be enough to keep at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of best
chances will be across the coastal waters and near the coast during
the early morning hours to near daybreak, and more concentrated with
the sea breeze front moving inland during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Blended guidance shows generally a 40-50% chance
for Tuesday and Wednesday over most of the inland and coastal waters
locations. Morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 80s, somewhat limited due to the increased
cloud cover.
The shower and thunderstorm chances gradually diminish by Thursday
through Saturday as the mid to upper level ridge from the west moves
eastward over the Western Gulf of Mexico/East Texas region and
increases stability across the mid to upper level regions. Shower
and thunderstorm chances diminish over Southeast Texas/Western
Louisiana region Thursday and Friday, and areawide by Saturday.
Morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon highs a
little warmer near 90 to the lower 90s.
08/DML
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
VFR conditions ongoing with reduced categories where storms are
directly impacting a terminal. Winds have been variable due to
the multiple outflow boundaries as storms die, however winds for
the most part will have a northerly component for most of the
period. We will see a lull in storms as we get closer to the
evening hours, then things will stay quiet weather wise until
tomorrow afternoon as more diurnal activity pops up.
Stigger/87
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
A weak pressure gradient will allow for mainly light and variable
winds and low seas through the weekend into early next week.
There will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Storms
in the near shore waters and coastal lakes and bays will be
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms in the
outer waters will be mainly during the overnight into early
morning hours. Winds and seas will be higher near any storms,
along with occasional cloud to water lightning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 67 92 66 91 / 40 30 10 40
LCH 68 89 68 88 / 30 50 20 50
LFT 69 93 70 91 / 30 30 10 60
BPT 69 90 69 88 / 30 50 30 50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...87
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1029 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Area continues to be under the influence of deep easterly flow this
afternoon thanks to high pressure centered over Canada. Even with
this flow, temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and lower
90s because nearly full sunshine and deep mixing as latest RAP
soundings are showing mixing to 750mb today. We should still be
able to climb a few more degrees the rest of the afternoon.
This mornings upper air analysis showed the axis of the upper ridge
over Missouri and Illinois with the HREF shifting to the west by
tomorrow. A weak vort max that is showing up on water vapor
imagery currently over Ohio will slowly move west across the CWA
on Sunday. There will be enough mid level moisture to continue a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
The storms are expected to dissipate by Sunday night with the loss
of daytime heating.
Lows the next two nights will be similar to what they were last
night. Highs tomorrow will be 1-3 degrees cooler as winds will be a
bit stronger out of the northeast and GFS/NAM 850mb temperatures
will be slightly cooler.
Britt
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Latest ensemble guidance continues to show that the upper high
centered near Lake Winnipeg early in the period will slowly move
southwest into the northern High Plains by mid-late week. In the
meantime, a series of upper lows will move southeast across eastern
Canada and the northeastern CONUS. The net effect will be to keep
the Midwest in north-northwesterly flow aloft with a series of
embedded shortwaves moving through it. At the surface, dry east-
northeasterly flow will already be set up over the area which will
limit rain chances except for over far southeast Missouri on Monday
when some the model guidance shows some weak upslope during the
afternoon over the eastern Ozarks that could bring a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Guidance suggests that the east-
northeast flow will be reinforced late Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a cold front moves southeast across the area. Moisture now
looks so limited that I have removed chances of rain midweek. The
ensembles are showing high pressure dropping south out a Canada
into the Midwest late Wednesday into Friday. Guidance begins to
diverge by next weekend, with some model guidance now showing
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms as early as
Saturday.
With the east to northeast low level flow, 850mb temperatures on the
GFS/NAM are forecast to be a couple of degrees cooler than on Sunday
which is reflected in the MOS temperatures. Highs behind the front
Wednesday and Thursday will be closer to normal as 850mb
temperatures fall to around 10C. Ensembles have 850mb temperatures
returning to near 15C by Friday and Saturday with surface flow
becoming southerly supporting above normal temperatures.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Overall, dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Sunday afternoon, isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop primarily in Missouri and move
west. KCOU and KJEF have the greatest potential to see a direct
impact from these, though confidence in this occurring is low due to
the lack of coverage and the pulse nature of the convection. If a
shower or thunderstorm does pass over a terminal, expect brief,
reduced flight conditions.
Jaja
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
815 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
As of 8 PM CDT, showers and thunderstorms continue along and east
of the I-49 corridor. Rain-cooled air has already modified
temperatures in most areas across the Ark-La-Tex into the low-to-
mid 70s, leaving drier areas like Texarkana and our easternmost
zones with slightly milder conditions (upper 70s). Forecast grids
have been updated to reflect the impact of this convection with
storm activity gradually tapering off overnight. Temperature
minimums are expected in the mid-to-upper 60s as a result. /16/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Highs are topping out this mid afternoon in the low to mid 90s,
but we also have lots of rain cooled sites in the 70s. Winds
remain light and variable, but gusty in and near downpours. We
have maintained the high afternoon pops with this issuance to keep
the wording right for the still coming wet forecast where
conditions remain unstable. The HRRR looks good for the I-30
activity to continue to slide down I-49 using up whats left of the
CAPE. We have seen some gusts over 30 mph, but not much more than
that right now. Late day storms may be stronger and The SPC
continues a marginal outlook going forward. Overnight we will
likely see some light or patchy dense fog where we get soaked
well. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and there may be some
low clouds as well along with areas of showers or isolated thunder
during the overnight or predawn hours. It looks a little less
productive convection wise for our Sunday, but still warm to hot
and muggy with the added moisture in the soil. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
Little change is expected through much of the long term period (and
the new work week), as an elongated NW to SE weakness (shear zone)
aloft extending along the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX into E TX
and N LA lingers in place between troughiness over the Great Basin,
and a stationary closed low centered over New England. The progs
suggest that weak areas of vorticity embedded within this weakness
will focus areas of mainly afternoon and evening scattered
convection over the region each day over these areas once
instability is maximized via diurnal heating. Have maintained chance
pops over these areas each day, although this weakness aloft may
become more ill-defined late in the work week.
A shortwave trough rounding the New England closed low remains
progged to rotate SSE through the Mid MS Valley into the TN and OH
Vallies Thursday, before sliding into Nrn GA and the Carolinas
Friday. The 12Z GFS has actually trended more similar to the more
consistent ECMWF, thus maintaining the drier sfc air farther NE away
of the region and not backdooring SW. With this trough axis rotating
farther away from the area Friday, any convection should be more
isolated even with the presence of the weakness overhead, with the
upper flow remaining weak NWrly even through next weekend before the
flow begins to flatten out. Temps will remain near the daily norms
through the period, but may occur a bit earlier in the afternoon
than usual given the effects of the afternoon convection each day.
/15/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023
For the 04/00Z TAF update, a mixture of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs continue
with ongoing TSRA convection expected to continue until 04/03Z
before diminishing. VFR vis/cigs are expected areawide after then
until 04/12Z-15Z as low clouds redevelop with patchy fog possible.
Winds will remain light and northerly as surface high pressure
remains near the Gulf Coast. Another round of VCTS/TSRA remains
possible by the end of the period. /16/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 90 69 92 / 40 30 10 30
MLU 68 93 69 93 / 30 10 0 20
DEQ 64 90 66 91 / 30 20 10 20
TXK 67 91 69 93 / 40 20 10 20
ELD 65 91 66 93 / 40 10 10 20
TYR 66 88 67 88 / 30 60 20 40
GGG 66 88 67 88 / 30 50 20 30
LFK 67 89 67 88 / 20 60 30 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
750 PM PDT Sat Jun 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures are expected through the weekend
with isolated afternoon showers mainly in the higher terrain of
the Southern Great Basin. An approaching weather system will bring
gusty winds to the region Monday followed by cooling temperatures
and continued mountain shower chances much of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Did have isolated showers/thunderstorms develop late in
the afternoon along the southern Sierra and White Mountains. Those
showers did drift off the mountains into the Owens Valley reaching
Bishop. Sent out a quick update to account for those showers. The
showers will dissipate by 9 pm setting the stage for a mostly clear
night.
Similar conditions expected tomorrow with HRRR simulating isolated
showers/thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of
northwest Arizona, southern Nevada and Inyo County. Limited
instability should limit any impact from storms to gusty winds of 25-
35 mph.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through next week.
Shower activity is more limited today owing to some drier air
spread across the region and some shortwave ridging. Still
expecting isolated showers in northern Lincoln county this
afternoon and evening, as well as eastern edges of Mohave County,
but little in the way of impacts are expected out of any of the
activity that forms. Tomorrow, a low off the SoCal coast will
begin to creep closer to shore, this will start to spread a more
diffluent regime into the region and increase our shower coverage
once again - mainly across Inyo and Mohave Counties, and the
higher terrain of southern Nevada. Activity will tend to be fairly
weak and isolated to scattered in coverage, but dry low levels
will pose a wind risk for the stronger downbursts that form.
By Monday, offshore low will push inland and spread a belt of
gusty winds across the Mojave Desert. Cooling temps aloft will
also keep the shower chances active for much of the same areas as
Sunday. The low level airmass will remain quite dry so there will
be some potential for enhanced fire danger in some of the lower
elevations Monday - though no fire weather headlines appear
justified at this time.
By Tuesday onward, the aforementioned low largely stays put
across the Southwest - only slowly weakening through the week.
This will keep our temperatures below seasonal normals and
encourage daily mountain shower activity across our northern
zones.
As for temperatures - they will be climbing today and tomorrow,
and the big questions is if LAS will observe it`s first official
100 degree day of the year, or if we`ll have to wait till mid-
month. The official forecast high on Sunday and Monday is 98
degrees, with the NBM continuing to suggest about 10% probability
of reaching 100 Sunday, and 15% on Monday. If we stay below the
century mark, cooling arriving Tuesday onward will keep the streak
alive several more days.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds of 10 knots or less,
will follow typical diurnal trends with periods of light and
variable winds as they transition. Frequent wind gusts are not
expected, but an occasional rogue gust may make it to the terminal
during the afternoon hours.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...KHND, KVGT, KBIH, and KDAG will tend to follow typical
diurnal trends with sustained speeds of 12 knots or less. KBIH will
experience a breezy westerly push later this afternoon before winds
become northwesterly in a typical diurnal fashion. As KDAG shifts
back to the west-southwest later this evening wind gusts around 15-
20 knots will be possible. The Colorado River Valley sites will
favor a southerly direction through later this evening when KEED
will shift to the southwest and KIFP will shift to the southeast.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pierce
DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Stessman
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