Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/04/23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Large area of high pressure centered over Eastern Canada continues to build into much of the Great Lakes region late this evening in the wake of a cold front that passed thru our area overnight and today. Plenty of smoke continues to stream into and across our CWA much of which is originating from the many wildfires in progress across Eastern Canada...with additional smoke supplied by ongoing wildfires near Grayling and in Northern Iosco county. Latest HRRR suggest this smoke will gradually diminish from SE to NW overnight into Sunday morning. Am a bit concerned that this process may be delayed due to the building subsidence and nocturnal inversion overnight. Will make adjustments to the forecast accordingly. Arrival of cooler air behind the cold front combined with mainly clear skies will allow temps to cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s overnight. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 ...Fire weather conditions improve this evening... High Impact Weather Potential...Showers/t-storms possible near MBL into early evening. Near critical fire wx parameters s-central and se areas into early evening. High pressure is well off to our ne, with dry ne-erly low-level flow emanating off the high. A band of thicker haze/smoke (some of which is aloft) from Quebec wildfires is encroaching on eastern upper and ne lower MI. Vsbys have been improving in northern lower MI this afternoon, but 4-5SM vsbys are still common in the Straits area and north, where marine influences are limiting vertical mixing. There is a wildfire in progress se of Grayling; the smoke plume has been evident on radar and visible satellite. Deep convection has developed in southern Manistee Co; locally heavy rains have been seen here. So a fair bit going on this afternoon. M-55 w of CAD is the only place with cumulus clouds. Additional convection should be confined to Manistee and Wexford Cos. Instability will diminish with loss of diurnal heating this evening. Do not have any precip past 8pm. Sustained winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20 mph is just enough to support an enhanced wildfire threat, given antecedent very dry conditions. Winds have been somewhat wobbly; Grayling was showing an east wind during the wildfire`s initial growth, but is most recently ne. Passing horizontal convective rolls (evident on radar, even with no actual associated cu) are likely contributing to the wavering winds. That wavering will continue, but a ne wind should be more common/frequent than an e wind. Winds speeds will start to gradually relax after 7pm. Actual cloud cover will tend to decrease from e to w, as drier air makes a better push into northern MI tonight. Haze/smoke aloft will maintain more in the way apparent cloud cover thru this evening. Overnight, haze-smoke levels should decrease in northern lower MI from e to w. Haze/smoke will be more stubborn to depart eastern upper MI. Cooler min temps tonight. Low as cool as the mid 40s in the Au Sable Valley, upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 ...Progressively Cooler Daytime Temperatures... Primary Forecast Concerns...Temperatures. High Impact Weather...Fire weather concerns. Upper level ridging will continue to retrograde west allowing for height falls/cooler air to settle in across the region through the period. In addition, a surface cold front slides across the region from north to south overnight Sunday into Monday morning. High resolution guidance even shows a few light showers or sprinkles accompanying the front but nothing long lasting or substantial is expected unfortunately. Surface high pressure originating across the far reaches of Canada will eventually settle south and bring much cooler low level air into northern Michigan. Hazy skies are possible again Sunday from wildfire smoke from Canada. The flow aloft is a bit more northerly (versus northeast today) so a majority of this smoke may not make it into northern Michigan. Daytime temperatures will continue to cool and end up near "climatological normals" by Tuesday. Highs Sunday ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s, the mid 70s to around 80 Monday then only the upper 60s to mid 70s Tuesday. Lows at night in the low and mid 50s Sunday night and the mid 40s to low 50s Monday night. Fire weather remains a concern into early next week due to the lack of widespread rainfall over the past few weeks. It appears that red flag conditions will fall just short of criteria Sunday due to sustained winds staying below the 15 mph (at raw weather observation sites) to 20 mph (at ASOS sites) thresholds. Temperatures (75 degrees) and min relative humidity (25 percent) both look like they will be met Sunday afternoon. Regardless, fire danger will likely remain in the very high to extreme range over the next several days. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 ...Seasonably Cool then Turning Warmer... High Impact Weather...Patchy frost cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Wednesday nights. It is expected to remain seasonably cool Wednesday. This will be followed by a slow moderation upward in temperatures through the long term as the region gets into a warmer southwest surface flow on the back side of retreating high pressure. Can`t rule out patchy frost Tuesday and/or Wednesday night, through not sure winds will decouple with the surface pressure gradient on the decent side. Little to no rain through the long term, though low chance pops enter into the forecast next Friday night into Saturday in association with an approaching cold front. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Large area of high pressure originating in Eastern Canada is building into much of the Great Lakes region in the wake of a weak moisture-starved cold front that passed thru Northern Michigan today. Dry conditions are expected thru Sunday night...but plenty of smoke and some lingering high clouds will keep skies "milky/hazy". Some MVFR vsbys are also expected overnight and into Sunday morning due to smoke and haze. Surface winds will remain generally from the east AOB 10 kts thru Sunday...with lake breeze development expected again by Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 High pressure to our n and ne will provide east-northeast winds thru the weekend. While somewhat breezy at times (especially today), winds/waves look to remain just shy of Small Craft Advisory criteria. They will get closest on Lake Huron south of Sturgeon Point. Sub- advisory criteria continues into early next week as winds turn northerly behind a moisture starved cold front that crosses northern MI Sunday night. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MLR NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MLR MARINE...JZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Key Messages: - Staying warm for Sunday, with lower chances for isolated/scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon. - Cold front dropping through the area may bring another chance for showers and storms Monday into Tuesday, with more seasonable temperatures expected to follow through the rest of the week. End of the Weekend: The upper level ridge over the Upper Midwest/south-central Canada will continue to slide westward into the Northern Plains Sunday as upper level low pressure deepens over the northeast. Sunday looks to remain warm again, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s for most. However, as mentioned earlier guidance (RAP, HRRR) suggests an area of slightly drier surface dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. This should help to keep conditions fairly comfortable, with max heat indices looking to keep closer to the apparent temperature. As for precipitation chances, there is still suggestion in some of the guidance for a weak upper level ripple that could help to provide some low chances for isolated/scattered showers and storms. Although, with the drier airmass and in turn less instability current 03.12Z HREF guidance shows much less coverage compared to runs/previous days, keeping lower confidence in chances/coverage of precipitation for Sunday. NOTE: A look at HRRR and RAP vertically integrated smoke shows a plume diving down from Canada and over the Great Lakes region overnight and into the day Sunday. Both the HRRR and RAP suggest this will possibly spread just into portions of our Wisconsin counties, with greatest values of vertically integrated smoke remaining mainly to our east. Will continue to monitor this, but for now not expecting significant impacts. Through the Week: Guidance continues to be in good agreement on the overall upper level pattern for the medium range. The blocking pattern looks to remain with a strong upper level ridge between an upper level low over California and the other over the Northeastern CONUS. At the surface, model guidances suggests a back door cold front dropping down across the region Monday into Tuesday. This looks to be the next chance for precipitation, with most current hi-res guidance showing showers and storms focusing ahead of this front. This is towards the end of the hi-res guidance, so still some details to resolve with timing and precip amounts. However, looking at ensemble guidance, the GEFS ensembles have consistently been the wetter solutions with probabilities of 24-hr QPF >= 0.1 inches holding near 50-80% for some portions of the area. Although, this does drop to only 20-40% for >= 0.25 inches. The ECMWF ensembles on the otherhand continue to be a bit less excited, with probabilities remaining around 10-40% for QPF >= 0.1 inches. Will continue with the blended model guidance, but expecting there will be some updates in timing and details as we near closer. Behind this front, temperatures decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with highs remaining more near seasonable through the week. There looks to possibly be a break mid-week, with GEFS/ECMWF ensemble solutions showing very little in the way of QPF Wednesday into Thursday. Although some details to work out in the upper level pattern, waves of shortwave energy/surface fronts may provide some focus for increased shower and storm chances across the area towards the end of the week and heading into the weekend. Lower confidence this far out, so will continue to monitor trends for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Latest high-resolution smoke dispersion models suggest higher concentrations of near-surface smoke, predominately east of the Mississippi River. Opted to include a VFR, 6 mile HZ line at LSE for this potential. Upstream observations on Saturday evening did have a few 5mi visibility reductions, but confidence is low on this potential at LSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMS AVIATION...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1019 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS... As dry Canadian air overspreads the region, it will be cooler for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will bump up slightly Monday, only to settle back to below average during midweek as an upper level low spins over the Northeast. This feature will also cause scattered showers each day, though amounts look to be light. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1015 PM Update... No significant changes were made with this update. Will be evaluating satellite trends and the 00z HRRR data to see if smoke and/or haze should be added into the forecast either on Sunday morning, or perhaps on Monday. Not enough confidence to do so just yet. If it does move over portions of our CWA, the data supports it being smoke aloft, with minimal impact expected. Otherwise, very minor adjustments were made to sky cover and PoPs Monday into Monday evening based on the latest NBM data. PoPs were lowered a touch, as most of the guidance is now showing it remaining dry through sunset Monday. 645 PM Update... A few isolated stronger storms (even dropping some hail) occurred earlier today in NE PA. Now, the radar is showing a line of storms south of Luzerne county, continuing to drift southward away from our area. Therefore, am now expecting fairly quiet weather the rest of this evening, tonight and right into Sunday. Skies look to clear overnight under a dry northeasterly flow. It does look rather cool, with overnight lows in the 40s areawide (can`t rule out some localized upper 30s out in the Catskills too). GOES East Geocolor satellite loop is showing hints at some smoke aloft moving across CNY and NE PA from the north this evening as well. However, the thicker smoke looks to be in a band extending from western PA northwestward into much of Michigan; especially the north-central lower Peninsula. Based on the 18-20z runs of the HRRR, vertically integrated smoke output; most of the smoke from the wildfires in Quebec looks to stay away from our area overnight. Then, the HRRR guidance does bring smoke/haze aloft along and west of I-81 Sunday morning, before sweeping it west/southwest and out of our CWA by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, Sunday looks to start off sunny, with some clouds moving in from the east during the afternoon on the outside periphery of an upper level low over New England. Mild with highs between 65-75 expected Sunday afternoon. North winds will be touch breezy at 8-15 mph through the day. 220 PM Update... Isolated showers and perhaps a small storm cell or two will be briefly possible in Northeast PA this afternoon, but otherwise the main theme for the rest of the weekend will cooler dry air overtaking the region. Diurnal instability is still trying to eke out new convective cells from the NY-PA border counties southward during mid- afternoon. This is occurring as a compact upper low drops south across New England, with 500mb height falls on its perimeter; including cold air advection slipping in behind as a backdoor cold front. However, a small window of diurnal heating is still generate some instability in Northeast PA. SPC mesoanalysis shows now what the RAP13 model has been depicting ahead of time, and that is mixed layer Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values reaching 1200-1800 J/kg in Northeast PA, especially towards Luzerne County. We will continue to monitor the few pop up showers-isolated thunder, though very dry mid to upper level air is also pressing southward across the region as evidenced by GOES-East water vapor imagery. This is greatly limiting coverage of convective cells, as they become entrained by the copious dry air above 10 kft agl shortly after climbing. However, this dry midlevel air could also promote gusty winds mixing down from storm cores. Tonight, 850 mb temperatures drop down to near 0C though surface winds will likely stay elevated with the steep low level lapse rates so overnight lows will stay in the mid to upper 40s. A few spots that do decouple and have clear skies could touch the upper 30s, mainly in the Tug Hill and at higher elevations in the Catskills. Full sunshine is expected for the I-81 corridor westward on Sunday. To the east, cold air aloft and proximity to the upper low centered over coastal New England, will allow a layer of diurnal cumulus to develop; though still mixed with sun. Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with a north wind gusting to 10-20 mph at times. Then for Sunday night, lows again will be mainly 40s with the sky going mostly clear for a good chunk of the time, before some high clouds move in from the west towards dawn. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 330PM Update... Weak high pressure makes its way into Monday keeping conditions dry for one more day before a cold frontal boundary passes through overnight. Calm northwest winds are expected at the start of the day gradually increasing to 10kts in the afternoon. Based off of recent trends and dry soils, temperatures were adjusted up using the higher end of ensemble guidance. Temperatures are expected to range from 70-80 during the day and fall rapidly into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight behind the front. Despite there being lift with the frontal passage, there is not a lot of moisture available to kick off any promising rainfall. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 330 PM Update... An upper level low over Maine/Nova Scotia spins in place throughout most of this week. Several disturbances associated with the low are expected. These could provide enough moisture/lift to potentially induce instability driven showers each day in the afternoon/early evening. At this time, Tuesday appears to be the most promising in terms of instability with a few rumbles of thunder possible. GFS sounding shows CAPE values of 383 J/KG with steep level lapse rates present. QPF overall continues to look rather light given the continued lack of deep moisture. The upper level low dominating this period keeps temperatures cooler with highs only in the 60`s and 70s for most of the week. In terms of more promising precipitation, models seem to agree on rain showers sometime Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level low sends a short wave into our region. Models suggest a decent amount of moisture present to support these showers. The influence of the upper level low looks to shift east of the region Friday. A ridge appears to build in behind it lowering precipitation chances and moderating temperatures over the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Gusty west to northeasterly winds will become light and variable overnight, mainly varying between east and north. Through the morning hours, northerly winds will gradually become gusty once again with peak afternoon gusts between 15 and 20 kts. Outlook... Sunday through Thursday...Mostly VFR; Chance for showers each day, which may lead to brief restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...BTL
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Thunderstorms are starting to diminish across the area as the sun is setting. Rest of the night looks to be mainly clear to partly cloudy with lows in the upper 50s into the mid 60s. Looked at PoPs for tomorrow. Overall thunderstorms are expected to be more scattered tomorrow afternoon and evening. Some short term models are hinting of a few thunderstorms by mid to late morning especially in the east. There does seem to be a push of moisture at about this time, although lifting appears to be weak. Maintained only slight/isolated pops through the morning for some of these areas given the lowered confidence. UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Overall little needing updating this evening. Most areas are seeing at least diurnal cumulus forming. Areas with higher MLCAPE are seeing a few thunderstorms. There remains very little shear across the area today. Thus the chances for severe weather remain low, although some small hail and gusty winds are possible. Near to shortly after sunset thunderstorm activity should diminish. Low level jet does not appear to be much of a factor tonight, thus look for clear to partly cloudy skies, dry conditions, and lows in the upper 50s into the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Well above average temperatures and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms highlight the short term forecast period. An upper dome of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern for much of the north central US. This pattern will keep winds aloft fairly stagnant through the short term and through the long term as well. For this afternoon and early evening, we will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop once again, but likely with much less coverage than yesterday. These will mainly be diurnally driven showers and storms, with CAMs mainly advertising activity across the eastern third of the state, including the James River Valley. Organized forcing is very subtle to non existent, so development will likely be tied to remnant outflow boundaries from yesterday`s or last night`s convection. As the sun starts to set, this activity should diminish rather quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Severe weather is not anticipated as shear will remain very weak and instability will be a bit less than yesterday. SPC Mesoanalysis and RAP trends suggest surface based CAPE will be on the order of 1000 to 2500 J/kg but mixed layer CAPE should be a bit more modest, on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg. So, maybe a storm or two could produce some small hail but otherwise, the main threat will be lightning. After storms dissipate, expect a mostly clear and mild night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday will be rinse and repeat, with highs once again mainly in the 80s with a few lower 90s possible. The dome of high pressure retrogrades slightly to the west so the best chances of isolated to scattered showers and storms will also shift west a bit. CAMs suggest we will see a bit more coverage of showers and storms Sunday afternoon, but severe parameters remain unimpressive, similar to today. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A stagnant pattern will keep temperatures well above average for most of the long term with diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any ongoing showers and storms Sunday evening will once again diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Expect very little changes to the pattern through at least Tuesday with highs remaining in the lower 80s to lower 90s and daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The NBM shows hardly any spread regarding temperatures through Tuesday but we start to see a bit more spread (but still not much) Wednesday and through the rest of the long term. On Wednesday, the top of the ridge will flatten a bit (but still well north of us) and a weak cold front will move down from Canada and cross the state sometime in the Thursday night through Friday time frame. Behind this front, we will see a slight cool down into the weekend, but temperatures will still be above normal as the ridge pops back up to our west. Daily chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend, but the severe weather threat remains low in this stagnant pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated thunderstorms will be found through this evening. Confidence was only high enough to put VCTS in the KJMS TAF at this time as eastern ND has the better chances this evening. Tonight, skies will generally clear with winds diminishing. VFR conditions are then expected for Sunday. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Confidence was only high enough to place VCTS in the KJMS TAF at this time. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin SHORT TERM...ZH LONG TERM...ZH AVIATION...Anglin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
221 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Latest radar shows widespread light rain showers across much of southeast WY and western NE with a few embedded heavier cells. Latest RAP analysis continues to show limited instability, but enough for a few brief heavier cells to continue into this evening. Will need to monitor upper level cloud cover to see if eastern portions of the CWA could clear up providing a little chance for stronger thunderstorms to develop, but latest GOES imagery shows Cu fields remaining farther east in central NE. The main hazard headed into late this afternoon and evening will be the Mullen Burn Scar for the development of heavier convective cells. Hi-res guidance has been showing QPF amounts reaching 1" in the vicinity, however have uncertainty about how obtainable that will be with the limited instability. Observed precipitation amounts across the CWA have been limited to mostly under a tenth of an inch so far, but nearby observations have shown these storms` ability to drop at least a quarter inch in an hour with training storms and slow motions. Fairly moist atmospheric column is in place as southeasterly mid to upper level flow continues to draw up good moisture with multiple passing shortwaves also passing in the flow. This increase in moisture will continue to support tall, skinny CAPE profiles as indicated by forecast soundings with profiles mostly remaining below 500 J/kg. This morning`s RIW sounding recorded precipitable water around 0.8" which is near a daily max value and latest NAEFS guidance has PW values 2-3 sigma above normal for early June. This anomalously high moisture content looks to continue Sunday as well with another round of precipitation with additional shortwave passages moving up from the southeast. While the best moisture today seems to be located mostly east of the Laramie Range, the moisture plume Sunday looks to shift slightly westward with a bigger focus over south-central WY. This is reflected in NAEFS PW anomalies as well as hi-res guidance leading to potential concerns over sensitive areas in the mountains, such as the Mullen Burn Scar again. However, similar to today instability should be limited. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 An unsettled and complex pattern is expected through the long term, with a Rex Block transitioning to an Omega Block and potentially transitioning back to a Rex Block. Daily chances for precipitation and comfortable temperatures are likely. Models begin to disagree on pattern evolution towards the end of the long term forecast. On Monday, a stout Rex Block is positioned over the central CONUS with a high sitting over southern Canada and a low over the Southern Plains. The GFS suggests more variable winds aloft as the high and low fight to influence the upper-level winds over the CWA, but the ECMWF suggests southeasterly flow dominating aloft with the high influencing wind patterns aloft. Both models agree that vorticity maxima will traverse across the CWA, promoting showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours. A weak 700mb jet sets up over the area Monday afternoon and provides additional lift for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures range from the upper-60s to low-70s west and low-70s to low-80s east. A similar evolution is seen Tuesday through Wednesday. The upper- level Rex Block remains stationary over the central CONUS, but begins to deteriorate Wednesday afternoon as the low gets swept into the flow. However, an upper-level ridge becomes sandwiched between a low over southern California and a low over the northeastern CONUS. This leads to the development of an Omega Block over the central CONUS at 250mb. The Omega Block does not disrupt precipitation chances as swaths of vorticity peel away from the upper-level low in southern California and move across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. These swaths of vorticity promote daily shower and thunderstorm chances across the CWA. Similar temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper-60s to low- 70s west and mid-70s to low-80s east. On Thursday, the upper-level low over southern California pushes northeast towards the Four Corners region and begins to cut off the Omega Block. The GFS suggests that the Omega Block deteriorates by Friday, while the ECMWF keeps an Omega Block-like pattern through Monday. The upper-level pattern becomes messy Saturday as the GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree rather significantly. The GFS moves the Four Corners upper-level low northeast and undercuts an upper- level high over southern Canada. This creates another Rex Block across the western CONUS. Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps the Omega Block around, though it is not as well defined. The ECMWF does not suggest another Rex Block developing over the western CONUS. Both the GFS and ECMWF agree that by Monday an upper-level trough moves towards the Pacific Northwest. This trough could push the blocking pattern off to the east and allow for a more progressive pattern to take over. Trends will need to be monitored over the next several days to determine if this upper-level trough will actually move the blocking pattern off to the east. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Wyoming TAFS...A weather disturbance will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers through the period with scattered thunderstorms into this evening. Broken clouds from 3500 to 10000 feet AGL will prevail this afternoon with thunderstorms producing visibilities down to 4 miles. Overnight, ceilings will lower under 1000 feet AGL at Laramie and Cheyenne with visibilities in fog from 1 to 4 miles, while Rawlins will remain VFR. MVFR ceilings near 2500 feet AGL will continue at Laramie and Cheyenne Sunday morning with localized visibilities around 4 miles at Laramie, while Rawlins will continue with ceilings near 5000 feet AGL. Nebraska TAFS...A weather disturbance will produce scattered to numerous showers through tonight with scattered thunderstorms into this evening. Ceilings from 600 to 1200 feet AGL will prevail through the afternoon at Alliance, Scottsbluff and Sidney with visibilities from 2 to 5 miles in showers and thunderstorms, with broken clouds from 9000 to 12000 feet at Chadron. Overnight, isolated thunderstorms will continue at Chadron and Alliance with ceilings near 6000 feet AGL, with areas of fog developing at Scottsbluff and Sidney reducing visibilities to 1 to 5 miles and ceilings from 700 to 1500 feet AGL. All locations will see broken ceilings from 4000 to 8000 feet AGL Sunday morning, except for MVFR ceilings near 2500 feet AGL at Sidney. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Flood Watch through late tonight for WYZ101>119. NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055- 095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...MB LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .AVIATION... The sfc-700mb backdoor cold front is now expected to accelerate through the forecast area between 06-09Z this morning. A good amount of cold advection will occur. Most pertinent item continues to be the amount of smoke that is descending down into the central Great Lakes from Quebec. It remains possible the area could see some slight restrictions in visibility after the development of the nocturnal inversion. However, confidence remains low as without a nearby source for smoke its difficult to imagine the particulates to become that highly concentrated. An axis of enhanced midlevel moisture is forecasted to sag southward through the Great Lakes region Sunday evening and introduced BKN 5000 ft ceilings. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings at or below 5000ft today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 DISCUSSION... Mid afternoon observations indicate the truer summer feel of T/Td in the upper 80s/lower 60s inland from the Great Lakes quickly giving way to deep boundary layer mixing and a Td drop well down into the 50s. The effect of this is shown in 18Z hourly mesoanalysis indicating surface based CAPE around 2000 J/kg in higher Td areas while lowest 100 mb MLCAPE struggles to reach 1000 J/kg. Convection so far clearly carries the lower CAPE character and this is expected to continue for any additional development as the inverted mid level trough/shear axis makes steady progress from east to west through the central Great Lakes. WV satellite imagery indicates meaningful wake subsidence filling in over SE Mi at press time to quickly close the time window for new development by early evening. Assessment of wildfire smoke concentration on ground conditions also continues for this afternoon and tonight. Trends in satellite and surface observations indicate more of a haze making it into SE Mi this afternoon, although with additional areas yet to arrive from Ontario and Lake Huron. Observations and web cam trends at Port Huron tend to support HRRR smoke model concentrations more in the haze category compared to concentrations of 35 ug/m3 or greater that are considered more of a surface smoke layer. Haze will be in the forecast for now while conditions are monitored going forward, especially as the nocturnal surface based inversion develops tonight with continued NE wind trajectory from Ontario, east of Lake Huron. The persistent NE wind is propelled by high pressure building in behind the hybrid differential heating surface trough/backdoor cold front this afternoon. The trough washes out and opens the door on cooler and less humid air coming in with dewpoint in the 40s which helps produce comfortable low temperatures in the 50s by sunrise Sunday. The inbound high pressure is of average intensity but takes full control of dry weather Sunday and Sunday night before giving way to the next cold front Monday. Sunday afternoon highs come down into the 70s even without considering any lingering haze/smoke considerations. Even more impressive is Td guidance offering values down into the 30s for RH near 20 percent. There is some boundary layer recovery heading into Monday but that is not saying much for moisture conditions ahead of the Monday cold front. It`s no surprise model blended guidance remains dry as the front moves through Lower Mi during the afternoon and evening. Strong high pressure then follows this front which brings reinforcement of cool air and dry weather for the mid week period. MARINE... Modestly higher northeast winds and drier air (smoke filled from Ontario fires) now pushing through southern Lake Huron this afternoon, with gusts over Saginaw Bay reaching around 25 knots. The stronger east-northeast winds will reach Lake St. Clair/Lake Erie this evening with some modest low level cold advection allowing for the marginal small craft conditions to continue into the early morning hours of Sunday. Weaker winds, 15 knots or less should return for most of the marine waters Sunday as a secondary high moves over northern Lake Huron, lingering into Monday morning before a cold front races south. The exception for Sunday looks to be across Lake Erie, where easterly winds up around 20 knots look to persist with the long fetch. Winds early next week behind the cold front passage look fairly similar to this evening, but the strength of the high dropping south from James Bay has trended weaker. None-the-less, even if winds struggle to reach and exceed 25 knots, the moderate northerly flow should allow waves to build aoa 4 feet over the southern Lake Huron basin by Tuesday morning, and small craft advisories remain a good possibility. Cooler air settling over the Central Great Lakes during the mid week period will likely be sufficient to maintain wind speeds in the 10 to 20 knots range out of the northwest-north. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......sf You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1056 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 We canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Dimmit County several minutes ago and have adjusted the short term forecast for the rest of tonight. Closely monitoring the cluster of storms across the coastal plains as rain rates come up to 5 inches per hour over central Fayette County. The other area we are closely monitoring is the line of storms pushing over southern Ozona County (SJT CWA) into the south. If this continues, the northern part of Val Verde County could get effected by these storms during the upcoming hour. A few thunderstorms are lingering around northern Atascosa, southern Bexar and western Wilson County. Some of these could make it into the San Antonio area within the next hour. We will keep closely monitoring this activity as well. && .UPDATE... Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Storms across the Rio Grande area especially entering the southwest part of Dimmit County as of this writing to be strong to severe. After coordinating with SPC, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for Dimmit County through 1 AM CDT Sunday. The main severe weather hazards are large to very large hail up to ping pong size and wind gusts up to 70 mph. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Weather across the area at the present time is relatively quiet. This morning started out cool and dry in the wake of the overnight MCS, but dewpoints have creeped back into the 60s and 70s with temperatures in the 80s. Skies remain partly cloudy with light southerly winds in place. Convection chances late this afternoon and tonight remain a low confidence forecast, but it appears there are two main areas to watch for possible development and movement into the CWA. The first is activity west of the Rio Grande that should initiate after 4 pm. There will be a window for this activity to congeal into a complex and become cold pool dominate and progress into the western counties. Latest runs of the HRRR show this most likely happening in the southwestern CWA near Maverick, Dimmit, and Zavala County after 7-8 pm before likely moving into the CRP CWA by 11 pm. With this potential MCS, there is the chance for some strong to severe winds and perhaps small hail as well. SPC has this general area in a Slight Risk of severe storms in the latest Day 1 outlook. The second area to watch will be possible development of showers and storms just north of the Hill Country around 7 pm. The past few runs of the HRRR are consistently showing this activity growing upscale into an MCS with the system moving into the Hill Country then into the I35 corridor after midnight. Will have to watch this, but have increased PoPs for this area tonight to 40-50 percent for now. Overall severe chances will be likely lower with this system but will have to monitor for possible winds. There is a marginal risk for this area in the Day 1 outlook. Lows tonight will likely be in the 60s across the area. For tomorrow, much of the forecast will be dependent on what happens tonight. If we get a large complex moving through the area after midnight, we will likely see less activity tomorrow afternoon with only scattered activity possible. Latest run of the NBM has 60-70 PoPs in the north tomorrow but has not picked up the overnight system yet. Toned PoPs tomorrow down a bit given the risk of the overnight system. Highs will be in the 80s for much of the area. Will keep 20 PoPs for much of the area tomorrow night. Lows will be in the 60s to near 70 once again. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Majority of the long term forecast consists of a northwesterly flow aloft as weak ridging establishes from Northern Mexico into the New Mexico region. The flow eventually looks to flatten toward later in the week and into next weekend. The precipitable water values over the region will remain within 1 standard deviation of normal for this time of year. The best rain and storm chances are expected to concentrate through early week and will continue to primarily be driven by mesoscale processes, like convective outflow and complex propagations. Locally heavy downpours are possible with convection through Tuesday night and this may result in the concern for some low end flooding at times. WPC continues to highlight much of the area under a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall through that time. While the better rain and storm chances decline into mid to late week, there could be enough lingering moisture and lift to allow the opportunity for low end PoPs of around 10 to 20 percent across the region. This includes the possible interaction with the sea breeze. Temperatures look to steadily warm through the long term back to near normal by the end of the week before trending slightly above the seasonable average into next weekend. Conditions will trend on the humid side as well with the modest low-level onshore east to southeast flow from off the Gulf of Mexico. However, if a convective complex at any time is able to advance across the region in any similar fashion as last night, then some cooler temperatures and a more refreshing feel within the air may result as the atmosphere would likely need some time to recharge on bringing back the warm and more humid airmass. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 VFR conditions are expected across the I-35 sites this evening. A cluster of storms is expected later tonight to push across the I-35 terminal and impact the San Antonio area airports around midnight and early overnight. For KAUS, decided to go with VCTS for 02z as a storm over the Hill Country pushes to the southeast. For KDRT, storms have been developing for the last several hours over Mexico and now slowly affecting the Rio Grande but not yet the KDRT. Decided to go with VCTS for now and planning to adjust accordingly with radar trends and new hires data. MVFR and even IFR cigs could be possible if any of these storms move overhead the terminals. Winds will be light and variable for the most part with the exception of thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 90 67 87 / 40 60 20 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 89 65 86 / 40 60 20 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 88 65 86 / 30 50 20 50 Burnet Muni Airport 67 87 65 83 / 30 60 30 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 91 69 90 / 40 20 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 89 65 85 / 40 60 30 50 Hondo Muni Airport 67 87 66 86 / 30 30 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 89 65 86 / 40 50 20 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 87 66 85 / 40 60 30 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 88 67 86 / 30 40 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 69 88 68 87 / 30 40 20 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...04 Aviation...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
955 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The showers and thunderstorms have dissipated now that the instability decreased. Smoke was flowing in from the northeast, restricting the visibility in places. Based on the RAP Smoke Model the smoke will persist through much of the night. Overnight low`s look on track as a drier airmass was flowing in from Ontario supporting lower min temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Modified slightly from the 1106 AM Update. Four things to be watching over the next 36 hours, in no particular order: 1. Moderate Beach Hazards Anticipating the high-pressure induced NNE winds over Lake Michigan to be pulled NNW this afternoon by the lake breeze circulation, and strengthen enough to result in waves increasing to 2-4 feet along portions of the West Michigan shore. Cold water temperatures aside, the waves and currents should be worthy of mentioning Moderate Swim Risk late this afternoon south of Grand Haven, including Holland State Park and South Haven north beach. 2. Afternoon Showers or Thunderstorms Areas of slightly richer moisture compared to yesterday may allow scattered shower or thunderstorm development particularly in zones of better surface convergence. Two zones favored in the background northeast flow today include near and west of Lansing/Jackson near I-94 (off the convergence of the diffuse Lake Huron/Erie lake breezes) and west of US-131 near the US-31 lakeshore communities (off the convergence of the background wind and the Lake Michigan lake breeze). Shear is weak and convective cells will be pulse and hit-or- miss, but will generally move or propagate toward the southwest. Locally gusty winds from microbursts are possible due to the inverted-V thermo profile on forecast soundings. 3. Smoke/Haze From Quebec Fires A number of forest fires in Quebec on Friday (presumably caused by lightning on Thursday) have fed a fairly dense plume of smoke into the lower portion of the atmosphere, which has moved through Ontario and into northeastern Michigan today. Generally 4 to 7 mile visibility has been reported so far from Oscoda to Gaylord and north, and spilling into Midland-Saginaw off the bay. The HRRR-Smoke has captured the origination of this smoke and seems to be timing the front of the near-surface smoke pretty well. It suggests that near-surface smoke will move into all areas near/north of I-96 before sunset today, and our whole area for a time overnight, then cleaner air arrives for sunrise Sunday, only for pockets of smoke to mix down later in the day. The concentration of near-surface smoke modeled today in the HRRR and also the reductions in visibility upstream suggest that the smell of smoke may become apparent to many people this evening and overnight. Air quality due to fine particulates (PM 2.5) may also be reduced to Moderate or Unhealthy For Sensitive Groups. Recommend for monitoring. 4. Fire Weather Conditions Weather conditions have been on the margins of a Red Flag Warning for fire danger for some time now, and this weekend will be no exception. Michigan DNR reports extremely dry conditions of some vegetation (fuels), especially in northern conifer forests. Michigan DNR this afternoon reported a wildfire southeast of Grayling, also seen via thermal "hot spot" on GOES-16 satellite and the smoke plume has been evident on APX radar. Weekend campfires, depending on jurisdiction, may be anywhere from discouraged to banned due to the continued dry conditions. Any temporarily gustier winds today and Sunday may encourage fires to spread out of control. The air on Sunday, while less hot than today, looks significantly drier. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A pattern change featuring troughing aloft and negative height anomalies is in store for the coming week, bringing more comfortable temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (close to normal for early June). However a cold front dropping south through the region on Monday/Monday night ushers in another fresh installment of very dry air so the drought conditions will only worsen and fire weather concerns will continue to ramp up. Dew points in the 30s and perhaps even the 20s are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday which could lead to red flag criteria being met when combined with northerly winds upwards of 15-20 mph. There is a ribbon of higher PWATs and sfc dew points which precedes/accompanies the cold frontal passage Monday. This could result in a few showers as suggested by the NAM although most guidance is dry with the fropa and if anything did occur it would probably be light/scattered or just sprinkles. Otherwise another week of completely dry weather can be expected, although there is some hope of a few showers or storms occuring toward Friday night and Saturday with a frontal boundary dropping in from the northwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Radar trends show the showers and thunderstorms around KJXN...KBTL and KAZO are weakening. Model projections support a continuation of this trend so that is what we will feature in the 00z TAF issuance. An area of smoke from the Canadian wildfires was dropping southwest into the TAF sites. Model projections also support keeping the smoke around for much of the night, restricting the visibilities. We will feature MVFR conditions. Otherwise the very dry airmass that is moving in from the northeast will act to keep the cloud cover to a minimum with relatively high bases. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Waves may build up to the 2-4 ft range between Grand Haven and St Joseph this evening, and swim risk may become moderate due to waves and currents. Water temperatures are still mostly in the 50s. Winds and changes in wind direction with the daytime lake breeze development should be pretty similar on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 357 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Fire Weather Watch is issued for Sunday given the temperatures around 80, relative humidity dropping to about 20 percent, and winds from the east-northeast 10-15 gusting to 20 mph, and extremely dry vegetation (fuels). && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJS SHORT TERM...CAS LONG TERM...Meade AVIATION...MJS FIRE WEATHER...CAS MARINE...CAS
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A weak cold front will arrive from the northeast tonight to bring both a 20 percent chance of a light shower, along with cooler temperatures for Sunday. A series of additional fronts will knock temperatures down several more degrees through mid week when we`ll have highs seasonably in the low to mid 80s, but widespread precipitation appears unlikely through at least Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Evening water vapor imagery indicated an elongated shortwave stretched from eastern WI southeast across IN, tracking west. This was responsible for earlier convection over northern IN, which has dissipated with the loss of diurnal heating. At best a few sprinkles may occur overnight as the wave moves through, accompanied by a slightly higher low level dewpoint pool - upper 50s to lower 60s. This will keep lows on the mild side from the low to mid 60s. Northeast winds still gusting around 20 mph in a few spots this evening will subside to 5-10 mph or less overnight. 25 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 <<<<<<< Key Messages >>>>>>> 1. Trending less hot tomorrow through midweek 2. Several slight (~20%) chances for precip this week GFS and ECMWF show a nearly stationary upper trough spinning along the northeast coast through midweek, while simultaneously expanding westward as multiple subtle pieces of energy dive south and across our area to overspread central Illinois with milder temperatures. The first feature, a slowly weakening cold front, will usher in a slightly milder air mass tomorrow morning - simultaneously sparking a slight chance for showers (and even a 20% chance for thunder according to NBM); in fact, with this "back door" cold front slowing over central/west Illinois tomorrow, there could be some additional showers that develop mainly along and west of the Illinois River during the afternoon, for which time frame we`ll maintain slight (20%) PoPs across the southwest where HREF suggests 70-85% (50-60%) probabilities for >1000 (500) J/kg of SBCAPE. Latest RAP and HRRR guidance suggests the possibility for both lofted and near surface smoke beginning tomorrow morning and continuing through the day as northeast flow pulls wildfire smoke out of Nova Scotia. The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) forecasts another day of moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups air quality tomorrow, though this is also due to potential for ozone. The second feature, a reinforcing back door cold front, looks to arrive Sunday night into early Monday morning, but the CAMs are all dry for this system`s arrival which seems reasonable given the impressive dry layer evident on forecast soundings above 900mb during that time period. One or more additional features, the timing, placement, and moisture transport ahead of which are in disarray among models, are forecast to arrive from the northeast between Monday night and the end of the work week to bring nonzero (albeit low) chances for precipitation. The EPS and CMCE remain dry with only 8 members (of 50) from the EPS and 2 members (of 20) from the CMCE yielding QPF before Saturday morning, while 15 (of 30) GEFS members have precip falling over central Illinois between Tuesday and Thursday. At this time, NBM keeps PoPs sub 15% until Friday night when some slight chance PoPs enter our north, but there`s a possibility we could need to tweak precip probabilities up for one/more of those weak midweek disturbances. Saturday into Sunday, most members within each ensemble have precip, and NBM continues to advertise 30-50% probabilities for more than 0.25" of QPF. The NBM even suggests we`ll have around a 20-30% chance for thunder area-wide on Saturday, which seems reasonable given 52% (23%) of the Low Resolution Ensemble Forecast (LREF) has nonzero (>500 J/kg) surface based CAPE -- not to mention, any west/southwest flow at the mid levels ahead of a southward sinking frontal boundary could bring elevated instability. Looking at and beyond the end of the forecast period, upper flow looks to transition from northerly/northeasterly to northwesterly, which could bring additional opportunities for precip heading into the following workweek, though we`d need quite a bit of widespread rain to make up our deficit at this point...and there`s just no strong signal for that in the extended guidance. CPC`s 8 to 14 day outlook features a ~45% chance for below normal, 33% chance for near normal, and 22% chance for above normal temps, along with equal chances for below, near, and above normal precip. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 VFR conditions again this TAF cycle. Northeast winds will be persistent, light overnight, then gusting up to 15-18 kt from late morning through afternoon. Smoke from wildfires over eastern Canada will filter in from the northeast toward midday. While most of this will be aloft, there is a low chance surface visibilities will be reduced to MVFR at times. This is currently occurring over parts of lower MI. 25 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .Forecast Update... Issued at 941 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 - Partly Cloudy and Mild Surface analysis this evening shows the continued area of large high pressure still in place over eastern Ontario and Quebec. This large high pressure system continued to provide a northeast flow across Central Indiana. Models today have picked up on a weak short wave passing from NE to SW across Indiana, and this combined with daytime heating has led to some afternoon and evening thunderstorms. These storms were diminishing as daytime heating continued to be lost. GOES16 shows scattered cumulus along with abundant cirrus across the area due to the isolated convection. Overnight, the models suggest the weak upper short wave will continue to depart to the southwest. Subsidence is found in the wake of this weak upper wave. This in combination with the loss of daytime heating will lead to decreasing cloud cover overnight. Forecast soundings overnight continue to trend toward a dry column. Thus we expect skies to become partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight. Dew points are slightly higher than yesterday. Thus will trend lows mainly in the 60s, coolest NE, warmer SW, and warmest in the Urban Heat Island of IND. && .Short Term...(Through Sunday) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 On the synoptic scale, anomalous high latitude midlevel heights/ridging will continue to retrograde slightly, and one or more weak upper level perturbations will pass over Indiana. This will enhance mid clouds and cirrus, but northeasterly dry cP/continental air mass will remain. Given the dry continental air mass, deep mixing, and wind speeds of 10-15 mph this afternoon, fire spread potential may be more than typical for early June. However, problematic fire spread should be tempered by greenup of fine fuels and 10-hr fuel moisture ~12% or higher. Isolated weak convective cells may develop around peak diurnal heating, but there are some limiting factors. Low level moisture is limited but a slight enhancement is seen upstream in layered satellite-derived moisture products from CIRA. This may be just enough to support buoyant parcels surpassing subtle capping subsident inversion and reaching their LFC. Also, weak shear and dry entrainment will limit convective vigor and hazards should be limited to lightning. Lightning may even be difficult to achieve. It will take until around the time of peak mixing depth late this afternoon for any chance of parcels overcoming inhibition, and any convective cells should diminish by mid-evening as diabatic surface heating wanes. Mean cloud bearing wind should carry convective cells southwestward at around 10 mph. Wildfire smoke from extensive fire coverage in Quebec is on trajectory to reach our area later tonight. We`ll monitor via satellite products and HRRR smoke model, but as it appears now a slight increase in haziness should be the extent of the impact for our region. Greatest opacity may come in waves (i.e., tonight and again late tomorrow) tied to the diurnal mixing cycle at the smoke source region. Some enhancement to the color of sunrises and sunsets may occur. Given recent warm bias and model blends, and slightly cooler cP air mass arrival tomorrow, will hold temperatures closer to a hi-res model and GFS end of the spectrum. If the temperature forecast is erroneous in either direction, it`s likely too warm, and further downward trending may be needed. && .Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The noteworthy change in the synoptic pattern during the long term period will be a deepening expanding trough across the northeast part of the country. Lobes of vorticity within this trough will periodically move through our region reinforcing relatively cool continental air mass. Noteably, a cold front will arrive Tuesday bringing 2-m temperature to near normal for early June for a couple of days. Given the continental nature of the air mass in place, precipitable water values will be below climatology and the isolated showers or opportunity for precipitation will be nil. Toward Friday and the weekend, medium-range guidance generally agrees on a retrograding eastern trough and weak positively tilted trough evolving over southern Canada. The result will be veering/strengthening lower tropospheric flow across our region and a warming trend. Modest moisture advection ahead of subtle forcing may support a wetter pattern into next weekend, though ensemble spread is large during this time period so we have the probabilities broad in time and modest in magnitude for now. Beyond Day 7, medium range models generally show troughing over our region for at least a few days supporting near or below normal temperatures and near normal precipitation, at least for the first part of the week of the 12th. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 644 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Impacts: * VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period Discussion: Isolated showers or TSRA should remain NE of the TAF sites as they are expected to diminish in the next 1-3 hours as diurnal heating ends. The large Omega Block high will remain across the area through the TAF period, generally bringing dry weather and subsidence to the TAF sites. Forecast soundings show a dry column through the period with convective temps being reached in the late afternoon on Sunday. With no organized forcing available, this should lead to just some afternoon CU. Like today, a few stray storms will be possible but coverage and confidence on specific timing is too low to be mentioned. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Puma Short Term...BRB Long Term...BRB Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Key Messages: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall into this evening mainly across southwest and central Nebraska. - A few showers or thunderstorms on Sunday, then decreasing chances for precipitation, then mainly dry until Thursday. - Temperatures warming with readings generally at or slightly above normal next week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The upper ridge center over southeast Manitoba Canada with the ridge extending south into the mid Missouri Valley. An upper trough persists across the Rockies into the Southern Plains, with a weak closed low over sern CO/swrn KS. This is an unusual synoptic pattern given the current storm motion. Deep moisture remain in place across the Central Plains. The 12Z LBF sounding indicated 1.15 inch PWAT with a deep southeast flow. This has brought movement of showers/Tstorms northwestward this afternoon, which will remain so this evening. The latest HRRR shows scattered coverage this evening south of Highway 2. Any showers that train over a location will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding possible. This would be fore areas near or south of I80. Should see all activity come to an end after midnight. On Sunday, the upper ridge will strengthen slight over western Nebraska along with slightly drier air. A slight chance over the area by afternoon, with higher 30 POPs across the northeast and also west of Highway 61 in the western Sandhills. Highs 75 to 80 west the low to mid 80s east. Still a slight chance Sunday evening, with clearing skies. Lows from 55 to 60. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 352 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A period of mainly dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday as a broad upper ridge remains in place across the Central U.S. Could see isolated development possible during the afternoon to early evening hours. Upper troughing across the western U.S. will weaken the ridge across the Central Plains Thursday through Saturday. This will bring increasing chances for precipitation as a fairly moist environment remains in place. Highs should range from 80 to around 85 Tuesday through Friday, cooling slightly to around 80 by next Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening, with the potential for heavy downpours that could reduce visibility to IFR conditions at times. Expecting showers and thunderstorms to diminish after midnight. Winds will remain light out of the southeast around 10kts or less. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1032 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Made some minor adjustments to going POPs/wx based on latest radar trends as diurnal convection is managing to hold on beyond sunset as the area lies within a good theta-e air regime. Still expecting convection to diminish next few hours, leaving behind a quiet remainder of the night. Elsewhere, inherited grids/zones looked fine. Update already issued. 25 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are firing up across the CWA this afternoon and should continue to expand in coverage through the next few hours prior to sunset. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook has outlined nearly the entire CWA, apart from the far NE corner, in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Several of these ongoing storms are showing signs of producing hail as well as gusty winds, and these will continue to be the main threats through this evening. Otherwise, may have to keep an eye out for some localized flooding later this afternoon into this evening as the lack of any real steering flow could result in localized torrential rainfall over a short period of time. Most of this afternoon`s convection is expected to last through sunset, and should begin to taper off around the 9-10 PM time frame, although a few showers could linger thereafter. Otherwise, tonight once again looks quiet and seasonal with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow and Monday, a general weakness aloft will continue to linger overhead which in combination with a moist and unstable airmass will once again result in scattered to widespread afternoon convection. For tomorrow, rain chances look best across the western half of the region, as a weak upper level impulse is expected to slide into the region from the west becoming a focus for convection. Rain chances look to shift offshore tomorrow evening into early Monday as the impulse slides south, which the 18Z HRRR seems to be picking up on fairly well. For Monday, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are once again expected through the afternoon, as the weakness aloft continues to interact with the moist airmass overhead. Monday`s set up will likely be fairly similar to today, with convection firing up in the afternoon and dying off after sunset area-wide. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 The mid to upper level pattern will be dominated by a large longwave trough over the Eastern U.S. and weak mid to upper level ridging over Mexico/Texas with general west to northwest flow aloft over our region. General instability and intermittent upper level disturbances within the flow will be enough to keep at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of best chances will be across the coastal waters and near the coast during the early morning hours to near daybreak, and more concentrated with the sea breeze front moving inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. Blended guidance shows generally a 40-50% chance for Tuesday and Wednesday over most of the inland and coastal waters locations. Morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s, somewhat limited due to the increased cloud cover. The shower and thunderstorm chances gradually diminish by Thursday through Saturday as the mid to upper level ridge from the west moves eastward over the Western Gulf of Mexico/East Texas region and increases stability across the mid to upper level regions. Shower and thunderstorm chances diminish over Southeast Texas/Western Louisiana region Thursday and Friday, and areawide by Saturday. Morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon highs a little warmer near 90 to the lower 90s. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 VFR conditions ongoing with reduced categories where storms are directly impacting a terminal. Winds have been variable due to the multiple outflow boundaries as storms die, however winds for the most part will have a northerly component for most of the period. We will see a lull in storms as we get closer to the evening hours, then things will stay quiet weather wise until tomorrow afternoon as more diurnal activity pops up. Stigger/87 && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 A weak pressure gradient will allow for mainly light and variable winds and low seas through the weekend into early next week. There will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Storms in the near shore waters and coastal lakes and bays will be mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms in the outer waters will be mainly during the overnight into early morning hours. Winds and seas will be higher near any storms, along with occasional cloud to water lightning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 67 92 66 91 / 40 30 10 40 LCH 68 89 68 88 / 30 50 20 50 LFT 69 93 70 91 / 30 30 10 60 BPT 69 90 69 88 / 30 50 30 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...87
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1029 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Area continues to be under the influence of deep easterly flow this afternoon thanks to high pressure centered over Canada. Even with this flow, temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and lower 90s because nearly full sunshine and deep mixing as latest RAP soundings are showing mixing to 750mb today. We should still be able to climb a few more degrees the rest of the afternoon. This mornings upper air analysis showed the axis of the upper ridge over Missouri and Illinois with the HREF shifting to the west by tomorrow. A weak vort max that is showing up on water vapor imagery currently over Ohio will slowly move west across the CWA on Sunday. There will be enough mid level moisture to continue a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. The storms are expected to dissipate by Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating. Lows the next two nights will be similar to what they were last night. Highs tomorrow will be 1-3 degrees cooler as winds will be a bit stronger out of the northeast and GFS/NAM 850mb temperatures will be slightly cooler. Britt .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Latest ensemble guidance continues to show that the upper high centered near Lake Winnipeg early in the period will slowly move southwest into the northern High Plains by mid-late week. In the meantime, a series of upper lows will move southeast across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. The net effect will be to keep the Midwest in north-northwesterly flow aloft with a series of embedded shortwaves moving through it. At the surface, dry east- northeasterly flow will already be set up over the area which will limit rain chances except for over far southeast Missouri on Monday when some the model guidance shows some weak upslope during the afternoon over the eastern Ozarks that could bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Guidance suggests that the east- northeast flow will be reinforced late Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold front moves southeast across the area. Moisture now looks so limited that I have removed chances of rain midweek. The ensembles are showing high pressure dropping south out a Canada into the Midwest late Wednesday into Friday. Guidance begins to diverge by next weekend, with some model guidance now showing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms as early as Saturday. With the east to northeast low level flow, 850mb temperatures on the GFS/NAM are forecast to be a couple of degrees cooler than on Sunday which is reflected in the MOS temperatures. Highs behind the front Wednesday and Thursday will be closer to normal as 850mb temperatures fall to around 10C. Ensembles have 850mb temperatures returning to near 15C by Friday and Saturday with surface flow becoming southerly supporting above normal temperatures. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Overall, dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Sunday afternoon, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop primarily in Missouri and move west. KCOU and KJEF have the greatest potential to see a direct impact from these, though confidence in this occurring is low due to the lack of coverage and the pulse nature of the convection. If a shower or thunderstorm does pass over a terminal, expect brief, reduced flight conditions. Jaja && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
815 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 807 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 As of 8 PM CDT, showers and thunderstorms continue along and east of the I-49 corridor. Rain-cooled air has already modified temperatures in most areas across the Ark-La-Tex into the low-to- mid 70s, leaving drier areas like Texarkana and our easternmost zones with slightly milder conditions (upper 70s). Forecast grids have been updated to reflect the impact of this convection with storm activity gradually tapering off overnight. Temperature minimums are expected in the mid-to-upper 60s as a result. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Highs are topping out this mid afternoon in the low to mid 90s, but we also have lots of rain cooled sites in the 70s. Winds remain light and variable, but gusty in and near downpours. We have maintained the high afternoon pops with this issuance to keep the wording right for the still coming wet forecast where conditions remain unstable. The HRRR looks good for the I-30 activity to continue to slide down I-49 using up whats left of the CAPE. We have seen some gusts over 30 mph, but not much more than that right now. Late day storms may be stronger and The SPC continues a marginal outlook going forward. Overnight we will likely see some light or patchy dense fog where we get soaked well. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and there may be some low clouds as well along with areas of showers or isolated thunder during the overnight or predawn hours. It looks a little less productive convection wise for our Sunday, but still warm to hot and muggy with the added moisture in the soil. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 Little change is expected through much of the long term period (and the new work week), as an elongated NW to SE weakness (shear zone) aloft extending along the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX into E TX and N LA lingers in place between troughiness over the Great Basin, and a stationary closed low centered over New England. The progs suggest that weak areas of vorticity embedded within this weakness will focus areas of mainly afternoon and evening scattered convection over the region each day over these areas once instability is maximized via diurnal heating. Have maintained chance pops over these areas each day, although this weakness aloft may become more ill-defined late in the work week. A shortwave trough rounding the New England closed low remains progged to rotate SSE through the Mid MS Valley into the TN and OH Vallies Thursday, before sliding into Nrn GA and the Carolinas Friday. The 12Z GFS has actually trended more similar to the more consistent ECMWF, thus maintaining the drier sfc air farther NE away of the region and not backdooring SW. With this trough axis rotating farther away from the area Friday, any convection should be more isolated even with the presence of the weakness overhead, with the upper flow remaining weak NWrly even through next weekend before the flow begins to flatten out. Temps will remain near the daily norms through the period, but may occur a bit earlier in the afternoon than usual given the effects of the afternoon convection each day. /15/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023 For the 04/00Z TAF update, a mixture of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs continue with ongoing TSRA convection expected to continue until 04/03Z before diminishing. VFR vis/cigs are expected areawide after then until 04/12Z-15Z as low clouds redevelop with patchy fog possible. Winds will remain light and northerly as surface high pressure remains near the Gulf Coast. Another round of VCTS/TSRA remains possible by the end of the period. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 90 69 92 / 40 30 10 30 MLU 68 93 69 93 / 30 10 0 20 DEQ 64 90 66 91 / 30 20 10 20 TXK 67 91 69 93 / 40 20 10 20 ELD 65 91 66 93 / 40 10 10 20 TYR 66 88 67 88 / 30 60 20 40 GGG 66 88 67 88 / 30 50 20 30 LFK 67 89 67 88 / 20 60 30 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
750 PM PDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures are expected through the weekend with isolated afternoon showers mainly in the higher terrain of the Southern Great Basin. An approaching weather system will bring gusty winds to the region Monday followed by cooling temperatures and continued mountain shower chances much of next week. && .UPDATE...Did have isolated showers/thunderstorms develop late in the afternoon along the southern Sierra and White Mountains. Those showers did drift off the mountains into the Owens Valley reaching Bishop. Sent out a quick update to account for those showers. The showers will dissipate by 9 pm setting the stage for a mostly clear night. Similar conditions expected tomorrow with HRRR simulating isolated showers/thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of northwest Arizona, southern Nevada and Inyo County. Limited instability should limit any impact from storms to gusty winds of 25- 35 mph. && .DISCUSSION...through next week. Shower activity is more limited today owing to some drier air spread across the region and some shortwave ridging. Still expecting isolated showers in northern Lincoln county this afternoon and evening, as well as eastern edges of Mohave County, but little in the way of impacts are expected out of any of the activity that forms. Tomorrow, a low off the SoCal coast will begin to creep closer to shore, this will start to spread a more diffluent regime into the region and increase our shower coverage once again - mainly across Inyo and Mohave Counties, and the higher terrain of southern Nevada. Activity will tend to be fairly weak and isolated to scattered in coverage, but dry low levels will pose a wind risk for the stronger downbursts that form. By Monday, offshore low will push inland and spread a belt of gusty winds across the Mojave Desert. Cooling temps aloft will also keep the shower chances active for much of the same areas as Sunday. The low level airmass will remain quite dry so there will be some potential for enhanced fire danger in some of the lower elevations Monday - though no fire weather headlines appear justified at this time. By Tuesday onward, the aforementioned low largely stays put across the Southwest - only slowly weakening through the week. This will keep our temperatures below seasonal normals and encourage daily mountain shower activity across our northern zones. As for temperatures - they will be climbing today and tomorrow, and the big questions is if LAS will observe it`s first official 100 degree day of the year, or if we`ll have to wait till mid- month. The official forecast high on Sunday and Monday is 98 degrees, with the NBM continuing to suggest about 10% probability of reaching 100 Sunday, and 15% on Monday. If we stay below the century mark, cooling arriving Tuesday onward will keep the streak alive several more days. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds of 10 knots or less, will follow typical diurnal trends with periods of light and variable winds as they transition. Frequent wind gusts are not expected, but an occasional rogue gust may make it to the terminal during the afternoon hours. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...KHND, KVGT, KBIH, and KDAG will tend to follow typical diurnal trends with sustained speeds of 12 knots or less. KBIH will experience a breezy westerly push later this afternoon before winds become northwesterly in a typical diurnal fashion. As KDAG shifts back to the west-southwest later this evening wind gusts around 15- 20 knots will be possible. The Colorado River Valley sites will favor a southerly direction through later this evening when KEED will shift to the southwest and KIFP will shift to the southeast. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Pierce DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter