Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/03/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1020 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The sun has briefly returned for most of the area today as the
coastal low pressure weakens and drifts southward. Cloud cover will
build back in primarily for eastern locations overnight. A backdoor
cold front will push through Saturday afternoon bringing scattered
rain and storm chances to the Piedmont region. Drier conditions
return to start the new week before an upper low possibly sends a
cold front through Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM EDT Friday...
Latest analysis reveals weakening sfc low offshore of the
coastal Carolinas. To the north, weak 1012mb sfc low pressure
was analyzed over eastern New England, along a sfc cold front
currently dropping across the northeast.
Coastal stratus deck is easily discernible along the NC coast
and will build back in overnight, dropping cloud heights once
again, with VSBYs once again becoming diminished in areas of
fog, mainly eastern areas. Current hi-res guidance keeps the
bulk of the clouds east of Richmond, but expect we`ll see some
patchy fog even into the RIC metro area. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Friday..
The aforementioned cloud cover and fog will likely persist into the
mid-morning hours of Saturday before briefly dissipating. Any
short-lived breaks in the overcast do develop, expect them to
fill back in shortly thereafter, as the backdoor cold front
makes its way south into later Saturday. This front will bring
an increase in northeasterly winds, especially closer to the
coast. There will also be a chance for scattered showers and
storms that will develop in the mid to late afternoon hours.
Models continue to trend a bit further west with this activity,
keeping the best chances mainly west of I-95. The 18Z HRRR
keeps almost all of the storm activity to the west of our CWA,
while the 3km NAMNest develops a thunderstorm cluster across the
central/southern Piedmont after 4pm. There could be upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE available in the afternoon west of
I-95, though shear is expected to be minimal. No severe weather
is currently anticipated, but localized gusty winds can`t be
ruled out within any storm, again mainly across the piedmont.
Rain/storm chances will come to an end during the late evening
hours. Could have a few lingering showers with the frontal
passage across Hampton Roads into early Sunday, but expect
dry albeit mainly overcast conditions to remain in place
overnight, and some coastal northeasterly breezes will persist
into the first part of Sunday.
A quick-passing compact surface high pressure will start to slide
through the CWA on Sunday as a low pressure system makes its way
just offshore of the Massachusetts coastline. As this happens, any
lingering cloudiness should gradually dissipate leaving us with
mostly sunny skies by Sunday afternoon. Despite the sunshine, Sunday
will be our coolest day of the immediate period as highs top out in
the lower to mid 70s. Northeasterly winds are forecast to remain a
bit breezy for coastal locations through the early afternoon before
subsiding by the evening. Expect overnight lows in the lower 50s for
most spots, though some scattered upper 40s may be possible in rural
inland locations.
The upper low will then depart the MA coast on Monday as the surface
high pressure drifts to the south into NC. Monday will be another
dry day across the CWA with highs warming into the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees. Some cloud cover will begin to return during the
afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
The surface high will continue to slide off to the south/southeast
Monday night into early Tuesday as surface low pressure extends down
from the New England coast. A secondary area of low pressure will
sag south along the Canada/New England border on Tuesday before
meandering into the northern Mid-Atlantic region through Thursday
night. The 12Z GFS has come into better agreement with the ECMWF on
how far south the low pressure makes it, as opposed to earlier runs.
Broad troughing around the low will be the driver for our weather
here locally. On Tuesday, a cold front will extend across portions
of the area. Our NE NC/far SE VA zones could see a chance for
scattered showers/storms later Tuesday into Wednesday. The low
will then push off to the east and offshore late Wednesday into
Thursday, taking any rain chances out of our area. Temperatures
will hover in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the
extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 00z TAF
period. Winds will generally remain NE AOB 5kt overnight into
early Saturday morning. The stratus deck that remains just
offshore early this evening is once again expected to push back
in over coastal portions of the area tonight. Current models
keep the IFR/LIFR conditions east of RIC, while impacting the
rest of the eastern terminals. However, latest runs of RAP/LAMP
each showing increasing potential for some VSBY restrictions at
RIC towards sunrise Sat morning. Chances are still low enough to
hold out of the TAF for now and monitor trends. Otherwise, still
generally expect the low clouds to return gradually from east
to west after 02-04Z (10p-midnight EDT). LIFR/IFR CIGs along the
coastal terminals overnight with VSBY restrictions down to
1-3SM (under 1SM at times) will be possible as fog as develops.
IFR/LIFR conditions slowly improve Sat morning, as stratus
slowly erodes back toward the immediate coast during the mid to
late morning hours, allowing CIGs to slowly recover back toward
VFR. A backdoor cold front will push through during the
afternoon hours with scattered RA/TSRA possible after 20Z,
especially near and especially W-SW of RIC. NE winds will
increase to 12-18kt with gusts to 20-25kt behind the frontal
passage tomorrow evening, with the stronger speeds closer to
the coast.
Outlook: Cooler, drier conditions will return for Sunday and
Monday as surface high pressure builds in. VFR returns as cloud
cover gradually dissipates through the afternoon on Sunday.
Another frontal passage will bring another chance of rain may
on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
Winds have continued to slowly decrease this afternoon averaging
5 to 10 kt from the N to E. Winds were slightly higher along the
southeast VA and NC coast at 10 to 15 kt. Winds will remain
rather light and continue to decrease this evening and overnight
as weak broad low pressure remains off the NC coast. The weak low
and onshore flow has supported some lingering stratus and patchy
fog, which was still lingering across the NC waters. While
visibilities have improved this evening, marine dense fog may
return late this evening and overnight as far north as the MD
coastal waters and as far west as the lower Bay. Beach cameras
were picking up on the fog just offshore and east of VA Beach
this evening.
Expect some marine fog which could become dense over the lower
Bay and coastal waters from Cape Charles south Saturday morning
along with a light east to northeast wind. A strong backdoor
cold front pushes southwest across the area Saturday approaching
Ocean City by noon, then quickly races down the Bay and VA
coastal waters through early Saturday afternoon. The front will
reach the NC waters mid afternoon. SCAs are in effect for all
waters starting tomorrow afternoon for a rapid increase in winds
to 20 to 25 kt. Winds will peak several hours following the
initial front and some gusts to around 34 kt are likely over the
coastal waters Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. Waves
on the Bay will build rapidly to 3 to 4 feet Saturday afternoon
and seas on the ocean build to 6 to 8 ft Saturday afternoon
into early Sunday.
Winds remain elevated over the waters Sunday morning, before
gradually diminishing Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Winds
will be sub-SCA Monday into the middle of next week. Seas drop
below 5 ft on Monday except in NC waters.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
Confidence remains high for at least Minor tidal flooding
across the lower Bay/lower James and the ocean by the high tide
cycle Sat evening/night and again for the next 2 high tides
Sunday-Sun night. Locally, there is the potential for moderate
flooding at Lynnhaven, Oyster, and Corolla. With the full moon
the Saturday astronomical high tide cycles were already
expected to run high. THe northeast winds and building seas will
push water level up even higher for several high tide cycles
Late Saturday through Sunday.
There is more uncertainty regarding how water levels respond
farther north in the Bay, but as winds diminish later Sunday,
there is the potential that the water trapped in the lower Bay
spreads north and leads to at least Minor flooding at Windmill,
Lewisetta, Bishops Head,Crisfield, and Cambridge.
Rip current risk will be moderate in the morning, but then high
all of Saturday afternoon as surf conditions become rough due to
strong northeast winds. Sunday`s rip current threat will also
likely be high with lingering seas of 5 ft+ and strong northeast
winds in the morning slowly decreasing in the afternoon.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to noon EDT Sunday for
ANZ630-631-635-636.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ632-637-638.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight EDT Sunday
night for ANZ654-656.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...MAM/JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...MAM/JKP
MARINE...LKB/JAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1031 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will taper
off after midnight. Much cooler temperatures are expected this
weekend, with some lingering clouds for Saturday. It will remain
cool for next week, with some additional showers during the middle
of the week as well.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE as of 1030 pm EDT...Side door/back door cold front
continues to descend equatorward across the region with isolated
to scattered showers persisting, as well as isolated
thunderstorms. The thunderstorms are mainly over southern VT and
the Berkshires, as well as near the Schoharie Valley. The latest
MLCAPE values off the SPC RAP Analysis are 500 J/kg or less
over the northern zones. The instability continues to wane and
the lower troposphere stabilize. Low and mid heights will
continue to fall with the boundary passage and the mid and upper
level trough moving in from southeast Quebec and northern New
England overnight. The convection should cease around midnight
with isolated to scattered showers diminishing from north to
south overnight. Lows will fall back into the 50s with a few 40s
over the southern Greens and southern Dacks. Please see our
latest Local Storms Report with damage/hail reports across the
forecast area for this minor severe event...to finally kick off
the severe weather season across eastern NY and western New
England after May!
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Large upper upper level low will be dropping across northern and
eastern New England on Saturday before shifting offshore and
spinning just south of southern New England for Sunday.
The cyclonic flow will keep plenty of clouds around for the
start of the day on Saturday, but some partial clearing looks to
occur by Saturday afternoon or evening, especially for western
areas. A lingering shower or two can`t be ruled out on Saturday
morning, but most areas will see no precip, as the most activity
should be over New England. After skies clear out on Saturday
night, it should be fairly sunny on Sunday, as drier air works
its way southward on the backside of the departing upper level
low.
With the much lower heights and cooler temps aloft, it will be
much cooler for the weekend. Highs will only be in the 60s to
low 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will be in
the 40s for both Sat night and Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Our area will be behind the departing upper level low on Monday
with a partly sunny sky. Temps will be a little closer to normal
with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Northern areas will start
to see some clouds increase by late in the day as the next
system starts to approach.
Another large upper level low will drop across the area from
Quebec for the middle of the week. This upper level system will
drop directly over the area, so there will be a better chance
for precip with this one, as compared to the weekend. Cyclonic
flow showers are possible both Tues/Wed, especially during the
diurnally favored afternoon and evening hours. There could be a
rumble of thunder in spots as well, so will mention a slight chc
for thunder. With the cool temps aloft, as well as the
clouds/precip, temps will be below normal for Tues/Wed, with
highs only in the 60s to low 70s.
Some improvement is possible by Thursday or Friday as this
system starts to move away. Precip chances will be lowering as
the forcing heads away from the area and temps will start
working their way back closer to normal by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...Earlier showers and storms have mostly moved
away from the TAF sites as of 7:30 PM, but some additional showers
and possible a few rumbles of thunder will be possible through the
next few hours, mainly at PSF, as another batch of showers and
storms drops southwestward from southern Vermont. Outside of
showers/storms, VFR conditions are expected this evening, although
brief IFR vsby restrictions are possible should any storms move over
the terminals. Lingering showers and storms should come to and end
by 3-4z.
However, low stratus is expected to develop overnight
tonight. Mainly MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys expected, although some
borderline IFR cigs are possible between around 8-12z especially at
PSF and POU. Conditions improve back to VFR tomorrow by mid-morning
(except at PSF, where MVFR cigs linger into the mid afternoon).
There could be a few showers around late tonight and tomorrow, which
is indicated with VCSH groups.
Winds will generally switch from the north/northwest at 5-10 kt this
evening to the northeast overnight. Winds through tonight will
generally remain at 5-10 kt, but from mid-morning tomorrow through
the end of the TAF period winds will be around 10 kt from the
northeast with some gusts of 15-20 kt possible.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Main
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
649 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Summary: The warm conditions with isolated to scattered diurnal
convection will persist through the weekend before trending cooler
and drier for the middle of next week in the wake of a cold front.
High pressure was in control across the eastern CONUS into eastern
Canada. A warm frontal boundary was analyzed north of the
International Border Border from southern Saskatchewan to northern Maine. An
area of convection was located over the western UP of Michigan into
northern Wisconsin in association with an MCV from last night`s
convection. As temperatures warm into the 80s and lower 90s away
from Lake Superior this afternoon with dewpoints in the 50s and
lower 60s, CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg is forecast to develop across much
of the region per RAP forecasts. With little in the way of forcing,
widespread isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon and evening and activity has
already begin to blossom across northwest Wisconsin and along the
St. Louis/Lake County border. CAM and HREF trends favor
northwestern Wisconsin and areas of Minnesota outside of the
Arrowhead as the main locations for convective activity today. Per
the 12z INL RAOB, shear remains pathetic with only 10 knots
observed. This will again lead to short-lived storms with little
severe potential as storms will be vertical and will quickly cut
off their updrafts. Some isolated hail to around 3/4 of an inch
will be possible in stronger cells. PWATs remain in excess of
1.25" in the area, so any storms will have the potential for heavy
downpours, especially with slow movement expected. The flooding
threat will be minimized, however, buy the short duration of the
storms. This activity is expected to diminish late this evening
with generally dry conditions for the overnight hours.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday and Sunday before a
backdoor cold front pushes through the region on Monday. This front
looks to bring potentially better chances for showers and storms as
it moves through. Dry and cool high pressure will then take over for
the middle of the week with highs in the 70s and lower humidity.
Some 80s start to creep back into the forecast by Thursday in
western areas. The lower RH values and breezy winds on Tuesday may
lead to near-critical fire weather conditions across much of the
area. Looking towards the end of next week, global models have been
fairly consistent in bringing a cold front through the region in the
Friday into Saturday time frame. This looks to be the best organized
system that has crossed the region over the last few weeks and may
bring some of the best rain chances we`ve seen in awhile.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continued this
evening but the intensity has diminished since late afternoon.
KBRD/KINL may be affected by a shower/storm this evening but then
we expect dry conditions until Saturday afternoon. We left the
mention of showers/storms out of all TAFs on Saturday due to low
predictability.
There was widespread stratus and fog over Lake Superior early this
evening and we do expect that to push a bit further inland
tonight. How far it gets is still uncertain as is whether KDLH
will see low stratus and fog. For now, we kept fog/stratus going
for KDLH later tonight. We also have fog mentioned in a few other
spots due to the warm/humid airmass in place.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Dense fog will persist over much of western Lake Superior into
Saturday with indications that it may linger into Sunday as well
before clearing. Winds will generally be northeasterly Saturday at
5 to 15 knots before becoming variable onshore at 5 to 10 knots on
Sunday. A cold front works through on Monday bringing stronger
winds to 25 to 30 knots and likely small craft conditions. Chances
for showers and storms will persist into this evening and again
tomorrow evening, mainly along the South Shore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 77 54 81 / 20 20 10 20
INL 61 89 62 88 / 30 20 20 50
BRD 62 88 62 89 / 40 30 20 20
HYR 59 91 59 90 / 30 20 10 20
ASX 49 74 49 80 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121-140>148-
150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...BJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1032 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Thunderstorms along a Mountain Home to Leakey to Brackettville to
near Del Rio line are moving rapidly to the east-southeast while
maintaining strong to severe strength. The threat for tornadoes is
waning, however large hail and damaging winds continue. Due to the
speed of the line, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued
through 3 AM for counties east and south of the tornado watch. The
tornado watch will be allowed to expire at 11 PM since there will
already be warnings out for those counties on the southeastern part
of the watch.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving east across the Pecos
Valley region northwest of Val Verde County late this afternoon.
Forecast motion vectors indicate this activity will move to the east
and southeast across Val Verde county and the Edwards Plateau. These
storms have a history of very large hail and tornadoes. As a result,
a Tornado Watch has been issued through 11 PM for parts of South
Central Texas along and northwest of a Junction to Leakey to Uvalde
to Brackettville to Quemado line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
RAP analysis today depicts a shortwave ridge axis near the US-77
corridor with an upstream trough out to the west over NM into the
TX/Mexico border region NW of the Big Bend. A ribbon of upper level
cirrus can be seen streaming in aloft, and there`s ample surface
moisture in place as well. Pooling near the Rio Grande has allowed
dew points to climb into the low to mid 70s, and as a result low
level cloud cover has been slow to erode over the southern Edwards
Plateau today. A dryline is evident across the Trans-Pecos, and a
strong storm has already developed as of 17Z in Pecos County. CAMs
indicate storms are likely to fill in later this afternoon and drift
ESE towards northern Val Verde (VV) and Edwards Counties late this
afternoon into the evening. Despite the low clouds keeping surface
temperatures down in our NW areas, ample instability remains in
place aloft owing to steep mid-level lapse rates. DRT sounding at
12Z indicated 8.3C/km in the H5-H7 layer. As a result, these storms
will be capable of large to very large hail, mainly between 5pm-
10pm. Damaging winds are also possible, but we expect the tornado
threat to be very low owing to the strong inversion. Storms will
rapidly diminish this evening and are not expected to impact the I-
35 corridor, but could move into the northern Hill Country areas of
Llano and Gillespie Counties tonight before falling apart towards
the midnight hour. Isolated rainfall amounts in excess of 2" cannot
be ruled out over VV and Edwards Counties which could lead to
isolated minor flooding, though the area is very rural.
We`ll see a chance for some patchy fog over the east half of the
area early Saturday, then partly to mostly sunny skies will allow
for another warm afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low
90s, coolest over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.
Weak upper shortwave will remain in place just to our west, and
another round of storm development will be possible in the evening
into the overnight. This round should impact more of the Rio Grande
Plains and is more likely bring rain chances further to the east
into the I-35 corridor. Deep layer shear will be weaker than today,
and storm organization will suffer as a result. That said, continued
warm moist low levels and ample instability aloft could allow for
isolated instances of large hail or damaging winds over areas west
of US-281. A Marginal risk of both severe weather and excessive
rainfall remain in place, and again some isolated locations could
see rain amounts in excess of 2" in a short amount of time. Any
lingering storm activity should rapidly diminish in the 1am-7am time
frame Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Most of the long-term period of the forecast will see an unsettled
weather pattern. Synoptically, the subtropical jet will be just south
of the area for most of the period and this should allow for several
disturbances to move through the region embedded in W/NW flow aloft.
With this setup, convection will most likely be primarily diurnally
driven. The highest chances will initially be Sunday across the north
with 50-70 PoPs in the forecast. Rain chances Monday will likely be a
bit lower for now, but could increase later with time. Rain chances
will lower into the 20 percent range by Wednesday through the remainder
of the forecast period as upper flow becomes more northwest with no
weak disturbances expected. While widespread severe weather or flooding
is not expected, the time of year suggest that a strong storm and
locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out with the stronger activity,
especially on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures in the extended will be
primarily dependent on convection. Overall coverage and time of
initiation each day will likely have some impact on expected highs. In
general, highs should top out in the 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
middle to upper 60s. Can`t rule out a cooler afternoon especially if
an MCS can get going early on any given day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
TSRA moving into Val Verde County shortly may pass near KDRT and
have maintained VCTS for this evening. They will dissipate well west
of I-35 with no impacts expected at those sites. SHRA/TSRA will
redevelop out west on Saturday and have introduced VCTS mention at
KDRT for the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail this evening,
turn MVFR at KSAT/KSSF/KDRT overnight, then VFR again by midday
Saturday. There may be lower CIGs/VSBYs in SHRA/TSRA. Southeasterly
winds will prevail with the higher speeds/gusts at KDRT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 70 93 70 88 / 10 0 20 60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 92 67 88 / 0 0 20 50
New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 91 68 89 / 0 0 20 50
Burnet Muni Airport 68 90 68 85 / 20 10 30 70
Del Rio Intl Airport 73 89 69 89 / 20 30 30 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 68 91 67 86 / 10 0 20 60
Hondo Muni Airport 69 90 67 88 / 30 10 40 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 67 91 67 87 / 0 0 20 50
La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 90 68 87 / 0 0 10 60
San Antonio Intl Airport 70 90 70 88 / 10 0 20 30
Stinson Muni Airport 70 91 70 90 / 10 0 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...04
Long-Term....17
Aviation.....04
Warnings....MMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
345 PM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON UPDATE:
The focus continues to be on excessive rainfall this afternoon
and tonight. Also, scattered thunderstorms have developed and the
strongest are likely producing small hail. Marginal severe hail is
the primary severe threat, but a funnel cloud or landspout cannot
be ruled out with a similar environment to yesterday.
Precipitable water is around or above climatological maxima across
the area, approaching 1.5" which is about the forecast rainfall
tonight in a corridor from Glasgow to Winnett. Most totals will
likely be a half inch to inch, with localized areas near 2" or
more.
Short-term models like the RAP and HRRR indicate MU CAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg by early this evening in the Glasgow
vicinity, with surface to 3km shear around 40 mph. The limiting
factor is less surface heating reducing lapse rates compared to
yesterday. Kept the current Flood Watch as-is until 6am Saturday
and will handle localized advisories or warnings as needed by
monitoring rainfall reports and radar estimates.
Each of the next several days continues to bring moderate
confidence for some scattered thunderstorms, but there is little
concern for significant rainfall or severe storms at this time.
The environment remains anomalously muggy driving the storms, with
high temperatures heating up to near 90 by midweek and lows
staying well into the 60s for a prolonged period. This also gives
moderate confidence for some minor heat concerns.
-Zanker
MORNING DISCUSSION:
Light showers will continue across our region through the morning,
gradually increasing as we head into the afternoon and evening
hours. Morning accumulations are expected to be less than a tenth
of an inch for most locations with higher amounts expected later
this afternoon as thunderstorms begin to develop.
When evaluating the QPF again this morning, QPF totals decreased
slightly but still remain high enough to justify the Flood Watch
especially given some of the rain rates we received across the
region last night. That being said, there was no reason to expand
the watch past its current boundaries as the main threat will
remain towards the east, particularly in Phillips, Valley,
Petroleum, and Garfield counties. Storm total QPF is expected to
range from half an inch in our eastern zones to as much as an inch
and a half in our western zones with locally higher amounts
possible.
Regarding the severe threat for this afternoon there are a few
things to note. 0-6 km bulk shear looks to max out across the
central portion of our CWA in the range of 30 to 55 kts. MLCAPE
values look to be generally less than 1000 J/kg with sporadic
MLCIN values that range from nothing to -150 J/kg. Some of the
CAMs are picking up on a potential for some severe weather in the
area and overall seem to be more robust with predictions compared
to what was seen this time yesterday morning with regards to
yesterday afternoon. But the disclaimer worth adding is that the
CAMs have struggled as of late to capture the full picture of how
precip has developed and moved across our region.
When painting an overall picture for the chance of severe weather
this afternoon the best consensus is there is certainly a chance
for severe thunderstorms but there is still a decent bit of
uncertainty when trying to pin down the location and extent of the
greatest threat. And with mostly cloudy skies expected to
continue through most of the day, the lack of good diurnal heating
might become a hindrance for storm development in some locations.
That being said, this afternoon will need to be monitored closely
for any changes.
-thor
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED: 2100Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: Numerous showers and thunderstorms have initiated
across the area early this afternoon and will continue into early
Saturday morning, especially around KGGW. They are slow-moving
with the main threat being heavy rainfall, but small hail and
gusty winds are expected with the strongest storms through this
evening. Expect generally brief MVFR visibility reductions from
the strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, then some MVFR ceilings
from low clouds are possible for KGGW Saturday morning.
Some TAF amendments are likely.
WINDS: Prevailing northeast to east at 5-10 knots tonight, then
southeast at 10-15 knots on Saturday. Wind speed and direction may
shift erratically under thunderstorms.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The stagnant weather pattern and moisture rich atmosphere will
lend itself to efficient heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms
through early Saturday morning. The heaviest accumulations are
favored west of a Scobey to Terry line, particularly from Glasgow
to Winnett where localized amounts of 1-2" are most likely.
Localized heavy rainfall since yesterday along the Musselshell
River near Mosby has prompted a quick rise to near flood stage
this morning, with a Flood Warning issued for temporary minor
flooding forecast through tomorrow.
Anyone planning outdoor activities should closely monitor the
latest forecasts and any possible flood advisory or warning that
may be issued. Alternate plans will need to be considered in order
to address public safety concerns.
Current headlines as of 3pm Friday:
-Flood Warning for the Musselshell River at Mosby until 6pm
Saturday
-Flood Advisory for portions of southwest Phillips county until
4pm Saturday
-Flood Watch until 6am Saturday for Phillips, Valley, Daniels,
Petroleum, Garfield, McCone, Prairie and western Roosevelt
counties.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Central and Southeast
Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Daniels...Garfield...
McCone...Northern Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...
Prairie...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
944 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Satellite imagery loops show some clouds persisting across the
southern half of the CWA. We increased the cloud cover for that
region for most of tonight. Temperatures are running fairly close
to where they were last night at this time. Based on this and
model guidance, our forecast lows should end up close to last
nights. As a result we will not change the low temperature
forecast. There was one shower that developed a few hours ago in
eastern Lake County. That has dissipated and that atmosphere has
been stabilizing. Thus we do not expected to see any more showers
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
A prominent midlevel anticyclone remains situated over the Great
Lakes and Ontario this afternoon. This anticyclone, along with the
encompassing longwave ridge, will retrograde and amplify through Sat
night. In the low levels, a broad surface ridge remains in place
over the region, extending southward from a surface anticyclone over
northern Quebec, maintaining easterly low-level flow over Lower MI
(aside from mesoscale lake-breeze influences). Within this easterly
low-level flow regime, the recent incursion of drier air--with
correspondingly very warm convective temps--has resulted in
relatively limited cumulus development this afternoon. RAP
mesoanalysis suggests that negligible boundary-layer destabilization
will occur through the remainder of the day, and HREF guidance
exhibits a fairly muted signal for deep convection through this
evening. Will maintain PoPs below 15 percent (threshold for slight
chance) through this evening, effectively a dry forecast.
On Sat, short-range guidance suggests that an axis of greater low-
level moisture will traverse the area in continued easterly flow.
Coinciding with this transient moisture axis, surface dewpoints
will though likely recover into the upper 50s to near 60 F
during the late morning to early afternoon, supporting a window of
generally 1500- 2000 J/kg MLCAPE (per RAP guidance) before drier
boundary-layer air returns late in the day. Models suggest that a
subtle midlevel shortwave trough will propagate southwestward
across the area on Sat, but the likely timing of this feature will
not be optimal to aid convective development. Nevertheless, HREF
guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered convection
will develop during the afternoon, with convective initiation
likely to be aided, in part, by low-level convergence along the
lake-breeze boundary. Weak deep- layer shear (15 kts or less) will
limit convective organization, but moderately through deep
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in the boundary layer will
contribute to DCAPE of 800+ J/kg, supporting the possibility of
locally strong outflow gusts in pulse convection. Showers/t-storms
will tend to move toward the WSW at 10-15 kts (the mean 0-6 km
flow), but outflow/cold-pool propagation effects may result net
motions in other directions and/or nearly stationary storms,
especially with any multicell convection. PoPs ranging from slight
chance to chance will be carried for Sat afternoon-evening across
most of the forecast area, supported by 12z HREF probs.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
The period from Jan 1 through April 5th 2023 was the wettest on
record at GRR for that stretch by almost 1.5", then we flipped a
switch and the period from Apr 6th through June 1st has been the
driest on the record by more than 0.5".
The long term period of the forecast offers no relief from the
drought conditions. However after the recent bout of hot weather,
near to below normal temperatures are expected to prevail for
most of next week behind a cold frontal passage Monday.
The upper level pattern features a digging longwave trough over
the northeast CONUS, and latest guidance trends is for a farther
west placement of the trough with West Michigan firmly in it`s
wrn side for at least the early to middle portion of next week.
ECE Height anomalies are shown to be negative from Tuesday onward,
as well as the H8 temperature anomalies.
Expect highs to be mostly in the 70s behind Monday`s fropa, with
lows in the 40s and 50s. The air mass remains incredibly dry
throughout the long term period and precipitation chances remain
at or below 10 pct, even with the Monday frontal passage.
Fire weather concerns may ramp up again from Sunday onward as we
begin to introduce higher wind speeds and lower dew pts/RHs into
the picture. Tuesday in particular is a day to watch as this
appears to be the day with the highest winds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
A general northeast flow will persist tonight into Saturday and it
will likely become gusty as temperatures warm up. Instability
builds through the day and by mid afternoon convective showers and
a few embedded thunderstorms will likely get going. There will
likely be some pockets of MVFR and isolated IFR in any heavier
shower/storm along with locally higher wind gusts. Still some
uncertainty on the coverage but the area along and west of KGRR to
KBTL is favored to see those showers. For now, we added VCSH and
depending on future trends we may need to add thunder to the
TAFs. A lake breeze may move inland of KMKG during this time but
it will have to overcome the prevailing northeast flow. Low level
moisture remains limited so any cloud cover outside of the showers
will likely be VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
While the typical diurnal increases in wind speed are anticipated
over the nearshore waters of West Michigan this weekend, we do not
anticipate the need for any marine advisories or Beach Hazards
Statements at this time.
The primary synoptic flow over the weekend is out of the east-
northeast, which is what should be experienced over the nearshore
during the nighttime and morning hours. However look for the wind
direction to turn more to the north-northwest and increase to
10-20 kts on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons as the diurnal
component and differential heating effects kick in. This may build
waves locally to 2 to 3 feet by late in the day, particularly
south of Holland, subsiding again after sunset.
Latest HiRes models suggest that any scattered showers and tstms
which form over the coastal land areas on Saturday afternoon
would drift west-southwestward into the nearshore waters late in
the day. Some of these cells could contain lightning and
locally/brief gusty winds in excess of 25 kts before weakening and
ending after 9 PM or so. The passage of the convection and loss
of diurnal effects should switch the winds back to northeasterly
by Saturday mid evening.
Looking farther ahead, some fairly strong northerly winds appear
possible next week as chillier air filters into the region behind a
cold front. At this time the strongest winds appear to be on Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Record High Temps
GRR MKG LAN AZO BTL BIV
Fri 6/2 95-1934 87-1963 93-1919 102-1934 97-1934 95-1934
Sat 6/3 96-1934 90-1919 97-1895 98-1934 96-1895 96-1934
Record Warm Lows
GRR MKG LAN AZO BTL BIV
Fri 6/2 69-2014 66-1949 69-2014 76-1934 72-1934 70-2014
Sat 6/3 73-1943 64-2007 71-1943 72-1925 71-1943 74-1943
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SHORT TERM...Kenyon
LONG TERM...Meade
AVIATION...MJS
CLIMATE...NJJ
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1109 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers diminish in coverage and intensity overnight as dry air
works in behind a cold front, which brings a much cooler
airmass into the region for this weekend. Shower chances potentially
return to coastal areas on Sunday as low pressure develops
south and east of New England. A cool and unsettled pattern will
continue through next week under the influence of multiple low
pressure systems to the south and east of New England.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1109 PM Update...Convection is quickly diminishing across the
region with no more thunder present in our forecast area. Radar
meanwhile shows some drizzle, showers, and more stratiform
clusters mainly in the southern half of the area, with some
embedded downpours but overall also trending down. Looking to
surface obs... dew points are beginning their decent on a gusty
northeasterly wind late this evening, with that trend continuing
overnight.
650 PM Update...Have made a few minor adjustments to reflect
latest radar and observations... but overall with little
consequence to the forecast. At this hour... a sloppy
conglomeration of pulse convection is draped across New England
with a few impressive cores here and there producing isolated
damaging wind gusts along with small, mostly pea-sized hail.
Additionally torrential downpours have been observed, and with
slow movement has led to a few pockets where low-lying flooding
may be present. Will continue to monitor for reports through the
evening with activity set to start trending down... any minute,
now.
Previously...Showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous through about 00z this evening, then gradually diminish
through the evening hours. Overall, the CAMs have been doing
well in handling the evolution of the thunderstorms so far and
will basically follow a blend, especially the last few runs of
the HRRR moving forward this evening. The only real negative
with the setup is the lack of deep layer shear. This will tend
to keep storms unorganized. However, ample CAPE and DCAPE will
give a few storms a chance to become marginally severe, with
wind damage being the primary threat. However, marginally severe
hail and localized flooding will also be possible.
The threat for thunder will wane from east to west after 00z has
outflow and backdoor front sweep westward and rapidly stabilize
things. Thereafter, we have a chance for showers for the balance
of the night with some gusty easterly winds possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PoPs are the main question for Saturday and Saturday night as
an upper level low drops southward through the region. There is
a large spread in PoPs depending on what guidance one looks at
and this is related to the track of the low. A little farther
east and the drier and warmer it is. If it`s west, we can expect
more showers and cooler temperatures. Will take a blend, if not
to the drier side of things for now.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Some thunderstorm potential for the
afternoons Tuesday-Thursday period though confidence is low at this
time given questions about sufficient instability.
--Pattern and Summary--
Primary controlling feature through the long term forecast period
will be longwave troughing that will remain anchored over the
forecast area given weak downstream blocking over the Atlantic /-NAO/
and strong ridging just east of the Rockies. The period will open
with a cutoff low near the southern New England coast...which will
lift...only to be replaced by another cutoff by the middle of next
week which will begin to fill and lift by the end of the week. This
cutoff will bring T8s between 1 and 3 sigma below climatological
norms through the extended period which correlates to a week with
surface temperatures below normal...which is well captured in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance today. The far less confident
portion of the long term forecast is the evolution of precipitation
chances as the precise location and evolution of the cutoffs...which
is a notorious struggle for the model guidance...largely will
determine how much rain vs how much sun we see through the period. A
review of the ensemble guidance suggests lower chances for the
Sunday/Monday period /except perhaps coastal areas/ with an
increasing signal for more widespread precipitation in the midweek
period potentially drying some by the end of the week. Still...given
the proximity of the reloading cutoff...shower chances will litter
the forecast which will be a stark change from the generally dry
conditions over the past week.
--Daily Details--
Sunday - Monday: Cutoff low opens the period near Cape Cod with a
surface low developing during the day Sunday south and east of the
Gulf of Maine well east of the benchmark. The overall position of
these features doesn/t change much through Monday. This will
perpetuate a steady cool northeast flow through the period...which
could be gusty along the coast given closer proximity to a stronger
gradient. A bigger question is the extent of precipitation north
and west of the low center and whether it will reach our coastal
zones. The ECMWF/EC-EPS has been the most bullish with the GFS/GEFS
further east. The NBM represents a good consensus here with likely
PoPs just brushing the coast Sunday before pulling offshore Monday
with chance PoPs to the north and west. The low proximity will also
influence temperatures with T8s around +4C. This favors 60s for
most spots...with the potential for highs only in the 50s along the
coast on Sunday with a wetter solution...and the warmest values
/closer to 70/ along the CT Valley where there will be the most sun.
Tuesday - Thursday: Additional shortwave energy dropping out of the
Arctic will be over the eastern Great Lakes Monday night helping to
kick our early week cutoff to the east while itself cutting off
somewhere across the northeastern United States. This will likely
force additional low pressure development across the area or at
least the continuation of moist...cool...cyclonic flow. As
mentioned above...ensemble signals for measurable precipitation
increase for this period and while it likely will not be a washout
all three days...there really isn/t a period where there/s
confidence to remove precipitation mention from the forecast. This
will also keep temperatures cool...with 60s favored by consensus
guidance. However the 10th (50s) /90th (70s) percentiles from the
NBM paint reasonable goalposts given a wetter/drier edge of the
envelope. Would not be surprised if at least one of these days sees
many spots in the 50s.
Given the proximity of the upper low...thunder is possible given
enough surface heating on any of the afternoons Tuesday-Thursday.
However...the evolution of the surface/mid-level pattern is in flux
in the guidance and precipitation may end up being a cool rain...so
will hold off on thunder mention at the moment. If it were to
occur...overall severe threat would be low given very weak winds
aloft in association with nearby upper low.
Friday: Confidence certainly below normal given the interaction of
multiple cutoffs through the week to bring us to Friday...but there
is actually decent agreement that heights will begin building to end
the week which should begin a drying and warming trend. These blocky
scenarios can be slower to break down than the guidance envelope
suggests so will cautiously move temperatures upward /still at or
just a bit below normal/ with a low shower chance /close to 12 hour
climo values/.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Showers and tstms will likely bring restrictions
at times through this evening. A back door front will also
bring a wind shift out of the NE with gusts 20-25 kts this
evening through tonight. Cigs likely go to IFR overnight with
some vsby restrictions in BR. Conditions gradually improve
Saturday with VFR possible by late morning into the afternoon.
Long Term...Restrictions possible for the coastal terminals on
Sunday in SHRA though it remains possible that the worst
conditions remain offshore. VFR likely dominates for Monday
before additional MVFR to perhaps IFR restrictions develop in
low clouds and rain showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Northeast
wind gusts may reach 30kts Sunday along the coast...with winds
weakening into next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Back door front moves through the waters late today
and tonight bringing showers and storms. This front will also
bring a wind shift out of the NE with these winds bringing SCA
conditions from late this afternoon through Saturday. A few NE
gusts could approach 35 kts along the outer waters later
tonight Saturday, but not have made any changes to the SCA in
place due to marginal potential. There is potential for this
SCA needing to be replaced with a Gale if wind trends increase.
Long Term...SCAs will likely be necessary through Monday as
gusty northeast winds on Sunday subside Sunday night...with
residual 5ft seas through Monday. Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels Tuesday through Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible once again Today.
Here are the records:
Portland, ME today (Fri): 86 (1990)
Augusta, ME today (Fri): 86 (1990
Concord, NH today (Fri): 95 (1934)
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Arnott
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
950 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
The early evening showers and storms have all but dissipated across
the forecast area, as low level moisture transport has waned, or is
now confined to the convective complex across central OK. The only
exception is some increased convection over SE KS, as weak 850-700h
moisture transport in SW KS advects west into SE KS, with this area
of higher precipitable water values advecting to SE KS, and creating
storms.
So for the overnight hours, most of the moisture transport south of
the area will be focused into the complex of storms in OK, with
propagation vectors keeping this complex moving east. This will keep
widespread showers and isolated storms from developing over most of
south central and central KS overnight, but a few showers/storms may
still develop in the very weak moisture transport regime.
Think the greater chance of festering showers/storms will be over SE
KS overnight, where this area of moisture transport is unimpeded as
it advects into SE KS.
Ketcham
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
RAP seemed to handle the current convection moving into central
and south central Kansas better than the rest of the short term
models this morning. Considering the airmass ahead of the line
continues to destabilize with late day heating (2000 j/kg MLcape),
expect continued eastward movement to perhaps the turnpike
corridor before waning early this evening. Weakening steering
flow aloft will lend to localized heavy rainfall with some down-
burst wind potential. A general demise seems plausible during the
evening. The next more organized area of precip/convection should
develop later tonight into Saturday, ahead of the upper shortwave
lifting northward from the eastern Panhandle region into northern
Oklahoma/southern Kansas. The orientation of the pivoting trof
and low/mid-level confluent flow should focus an area of numerous
showers/embedded storms moving slowly across much of the forecast
area on Saturday. Despite being in a severe drought for much of
the area, antecedent rainfall the past few days has seen some
healthy amounts in excess of 2 inches across parts of southern
Kansas, not counting rainfall since 12z this morning. The
additional rainfall in these areas through Saturday will result in
some localized short term flooding concerns. The influence of the
upper ridge retrograding from the western Great Lakes across the
northern Plains by Sunday and Monday and somewhat drier easterly
component low level flow is expected to lessen chances for
convection. Though mid-level temperatures will remain relatively
cool so diurnally driven showers/storms will remain possible
though more isolated/widely scattered in nature. Temperatures will
continue to average near or slightly above climo.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Looking at the extended range a few models like the GFS and ECMWF,
show the mid to upper levels are persisting a large scale ridge over
the Northern Plains. This ridge is having a hard time moving
eastward, causing a blocking ridge pattern due to a positively
tilted trough over the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast. With
this trough persisting over the northeast, there are multiple low
pressure systems that keep developing and move north to south from
southern Quebec into the Mid-Atlantic and eventually move into the
Atlantic Ocean. With this ridging pattern, the long range looks to
stay somewhat active with most of the long range ensembles
indicating continued chances of hit or miss showers and storms over
eastern, central and south central Kansas. There are lower chances
for showers and storms across eastern Kansas but with the northeast
and easterly winds, the eastern half of Kansas could stay fairly dry
throughout next week. There will also be weak flow aloft and not a
ton of energy for storm development, but storms that do develop
could be on the strong side. Severe weather is not expected at this
time but look for further updates throughout the weekend and early
next week. Temperatures look to be near normal or just above normal
for this time of year.
Holland
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Convective system from the high plains has basically come to south
central KS to die, with just some remnant showers over the Flint
Hills still noted from the outflow that the complex created. Most
of south central KS has been "worked over" or become more stable due
to the afternoon complex, so not expecting much in the way of
SHRA/TSRA redevelopment, for the evening hours and much of the
overnight hours.
Will have to keep an eye on the complex of storms over western OK,
as this complex may propagate NE either late tonight or early on
Sat.
Expecting another round of widely scattered SHRA/TSRA for most
locations by midday on Sat, as another impulse rotates northeast out
of the SW Conus NE into the plains. So will go with prevailing SHRA
and VCTS for most locations for the afternoon hours on Sat.
Ketcham
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 64 82 63 85 / 50 80 40 30
Hutchinson 62 81 62 85 / 60 80 40 40
Newton 64 82 62 85 / 40 80 40 30
ElDorado 64 82 62 85 / 50 80 40 30
Winfield-KWLD 64 82 62 85 / 60 80 40 30
Russell 60 79 60 84 / 50 80 50 40
Great Bend 60 78 60 82 / 60 80 50 50
Salina 63 83 62 86 / 40 80 40 30
McPherson 62 81 61 85 / 40 80 40 30
Coffeyville 66 85 63 88 / 30 70 30 10
Chanute 66 86 63 88 / 30 70 20 10
Iola 65 86 63 88 / 30 70 20 10
Parsons-KPPF 66 85 63 88 / 30 70 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...LH
AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
758 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through tonight)
Issued at 406 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
A fairly large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms surprised us
with some locally heavy rainfall amounts over 1" across many of the
same places that got rain yesterday. This convection appeared to be
associated with a weak MCV that spun up from yesterdays thunderstorm
activity. Visible satellite at 19z showed a remnant swirl in upper
level clouds associated with this MCV that likely enhanced storms to
our southwest this afternoon. A few spots touched 90F this
afternoon, but most places were limited to the mid-80s and places
that picked up rain this morning were limited to the upper 70s.
As of 4 PM eastern, surface observations showed generally easterly
flow across the UP with agitated cumulus along lake breeze
boundaries across the central and eastern UP. At this time the
chance for additional afternoon/evening convection appears low, but
the best chance will be across Iron or Baraga Counties. The latest
RAP mesoanalysis shows up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE that`s mostly capped
and negligible wind shear in our area. Temps stay in the mid-50s
away from Lake Superior tonight and there could be some patchy fog
development late. HREF suggests marine fog on the big lake may
expand overnight and perhaps get into Marquette by morning, but
confidence is low on that occurring.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
Mostly dry conditions continue this weekend through next week, save
for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings
this weekend and Sunday night through Monday morning as a cold front
passes. Behind the cold front Sunday night and Monday morning,
expect cooler temps but also drier conditions and gusty winds, which
could lead to some critical fire weather conditions Mon through Thu.
In addition, expect the temps to increase again late next week.
With high pressure continuing to retrograde westwards across our
area this weekend, expect near record-breaking high temps to
continue across the interior areas of the U.P. Saturday and Sunday.
With antecedent dry air hanging around the area for so long, we
could still see some elevated fire weather conditions across the
interior areas this weekend, with RHs dropping below 30% in spots.
Therefore, respect the burn bans in place and make sure to drink
plenty of water the next couple of days, as you could get quickly
dehydrated if working outside. As for convection, we could see some
over the central U.P. Saturday in the afternoon and early evening
hours. While no severe weather is expected, again, some locally
strong winds, heavy downpours, and small hail are possible. Model
guidance hints that we will be dry during the day Sunday.
The big shift in the fcst comes Sunday night and Monday morning, as
the high pressure retrogrades so far to the west that a cold front
is able to push into the area from the north. This cold front could
bring some light rainfall via showers and thunderstorms across the
area. However, don`t expect the rainfall to be wetting; therefore,
expect the fire weather concerns to continue next week. In addition,
some gusty northerly winds could be seen behind the front too, which
could lead to some critical fire weather concerns Monday through
possibly Thursday; we will have to keep a close eye on dewpoints and
winds those days. Currently, it looks like Tuesday will be the worst
day. What may limit the fire weather concerns a little are the lower
temps; highs are projected to only be in the 60s and 70s Monday
through Thursday. With a rex block setting up over the Northern
Plains and ridging from a sfc Hudson Bay high settling over us
behind the cold front, expect dry weather next week. As high
pressure over the Northern Plains continues to retrograde westwards
late next week, expect temps to slowly rise ahead of another cold
front that may impact our area by early next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 758 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites. Winds will be light
and variable. At this point, fog is not expected at TAF sites, but
will continue to monitor.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 516 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
With a high pressure ridge remaining over Lake Superior through the
weekend, expect winds to be generally 20 kts or less. However, some
north-northeast winds between 20 and 25 kts could be possible Monday
behind a cold front, although with the lake still being relatively
cool in comparison to the temps in the air, the stable conditions
over the water could somewhat limit this. Otherwise, the only other
thing of note is that some isolated thunderstorms are possible at
times over the western lake this afternoon into Monday morning.
Given the stable conditions over the lake, expect most of the
thunderstorms to be near the lakeshore. While no severe weather is
expected, a few strong storms producing small hail and locally high
winds is plausible. Moving into the middle/end of next week, expect
stable and calm conditions.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ162.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EK
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
854 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Forecast is in good shape this evening. Just made minor tweaks to
temps and dewpoints based on current obs. Dry, calm conditions can
be expected overnight, with some areas of scattered clouds in the
southern valley and terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Key Messages:
1. Dry air and subsidence will keep PoPs low with low RH values.
2. Warm temperatures expected with ridging and subsidence being the
primary impacts of our weather in the short term.
Discussion:
The shortwave inverted trough across our region will be south of the
area tonight with dry weather expected. With fairly large dew point
depressions, fog really isn`t expected to be a factor tonight.
Upper ridging and subsidence will result in dry air tonight and
Saturday with low RH values in the 20s expected during the
afternoon. With the very dry air in place, expect PoPs to remain
lower than current model/CAM guidance suggests. The HRRR and NAMNest
are showing some isolated convection trying to develop during the
afternoon, but a quick look at forecast soundings shows a very dry
atmospheric column with only a cumulus deck around 4 to 5k ft. There
may be some slight chance PoPs across far northeast Tennessee and
southwest Virginia ahead of another shortwave trough moving
southwestward with a back door cold front nearing the region
Saturday night, but with the dry atmosphere, PoPs will be very low
in the 10 to 20 percent range. Overall, expect nearly everyone to
remain dry tonight and Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Key Messages:
1. Convection increases Saturday evening and especially for Sunday
along a back door cold front. Above normal temps through the weekend.
Some strong storms are possible across the southern half of
Tennessee and Cherokee and Clay counties of North Carolina. Main
concern being strong gusty winds causing down trees.
2. Next best chance of showers and storms occurs mid-week next week
along and ahead of next back-door frontal passage.
3. Unseasonably cool for the mid to later half of the week. Low
temperatures could be some 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Overnight lows in the 40s are possible across southwest Virginia
and higher elevations.
Discussion:
An unusual weather pattern for the extend as a series of upper
trough/lows dig into the northeast/east sections of the nation with
backdoor cold fronts for Sunday and again by mid-week next week.
For Sunday, a short-wave will rotate south to southwest across the
southern Appalachians along a backdoor frontal boundary. GEFS and
ECMWF ensembles show the greatest probability/coverage of storms
over the western and southern sections of Tennessee.
Timing of these features favor the best coverage of diurnal
convection across the Plateau, southern half of east Tennessee
and southwest North Carolina. Model soundings show MLCAPES of
1000-1500 with very weak shear. Main concern is the mid-level dry
air and steep low-level lapse rates below the LCL height. These
features may fuel the potential of strong/gusty damaging winds
downing trees/power lines.
For Monday, enough instability remains across the area during the
afternoon to produce widely scattered convection mainly
along/near the terrain features.
For late Tuesday through Wednesday, another upper low/trough swings
into the northeast/mid-Atlantic states pulling a back-door front and
weak shear axis southwest into the region. Chance of convection is
expected. Models do not show as much instability along and ahead of
this next frontal boundary.
For Wednesday night through Thursday night, unseasonably cool and
dry airmass will build into the southern Appalachians and Tennessee
valley. Low temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees below normal area
expected with temperatures dropping into the 40s possible across the
higher terrain.
For Thursday night and Friday, confidence is quite low on the
evolution of the synoptic pattern. Will maintain the dry bias but
may have to introduce a chance of convection later.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023
VFR conditons will continue through the night and into Saturday.
Light winds overnight will then become northeasterly in the
afternoon. There is a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm
near TRI late Saturday afternoon, but did not include in the TAF
at this time due to low probability.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 92 67 87 / 0 0 0 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 89 64 87 / 0 10 0 60
Oak Ridge, TN 62 90 63 88 / 0 10 0 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 87 60 81 / 0 20 10 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...Williams
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
935 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
As of 930 PM CDT, temperatures have fallen into the mid-to-upper
70s with another night of lingering high clouds in the sky.
Surface winds will remain light and variable (easterlies possible) with
dew points staying in the mid-to-upper 60 overnight. This makes
for yet another near average night conditions-wise with temperature
minimums in the upper 60s as a result. Patchy fog also remains
possible overnight in Deep East Texas into parts of northern
Louisiana.
With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated,
forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Right around 90 degrees for our four state area with most sites
running warmer than this time yesterday. Nice cu field west of
I-49 now with very little rainfall in that mix. The Clarksville
vicinity just saw a shower last hour and currently just SE of
Nacogdoches has the current lone shower. So the next few hours
may see a few more pop-ups, but coverage will remain very sparse.
Some dew points have crept up a bit over the last day with mid
60s in place for an overall area average.
Overnight skies become fair with lots of stars this evening.
Toward daybreak we may see some light mist in a few locales with
even a few showers early in east Texas. The HRRR shows a little
boundary pushing into NE TX before daybreak. The afternoon heat
will see increasing coverage into LA and AR as well. And we could
really use some rainfall with about a 2 week run of none going. A
weak surface low and upper low will park over TX/OK and linger in
place all weekend. Little change with our temperature ranges into
the weekend with highs around 90 and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
/24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
The medium range progs have trended towards a more unsettled pattern
Sunday through much of the long term period, as a NW to SE oriented
shear axis (weakness) extending from the remnants of a weak
shortwave trough lifting through the TX/OK Panhandles Saturday will
linger along the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX while bisecting the
Four State Region. Large scale ridging (blocking) extending from the
High Plains S into the Mid MS Valley, to the W of a large closed low
over the OH Valley and New England, is expected to remain anchored
through much of next week, with little deviation in this weakness
aloft anticipated. This will result in a continuation of diurnally
driven mainly afternoon and evening scattered convection each day,
with the highest concentration in the extended period expected over
E TX/Wrn LA Sunday and Monday. This shear axis may become more ill-
defined Tuesday through late week, although moderate instability
driven from strong heating and the available moisture in place
should still yield isolated to widely scattered convection each day
across the region. Weak overall bulk shear will persist over the
area throughout the long term period, with the convection largely
influenced by mesoscale bndrys. Isolated strong storms can`t be
ruled out, with locally gusty winds and brief heavy rain possible,
but organized severe remains unlikely attm.
The only change hinted amongst the progs is the fact that shortwave
troughing will round the New England closed low into the Mid MS/TN
Vallies during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, which may help
reinforce a weak sfc front through AR by late week. The progs
suggest that this bndry will backdoor SW into SW AR Thursday, and
possibly into portions of N LA by Friday, which would only help
allow for drier air to mix SSW into these areas. Not quite buying
the extent of the dry air the GFS suggests given its lack of run to
run consistency all this week, but slightly drier air may translate
to the sfc by late week thus taking a slight edge off of the RH`s.
The entrainment of the drier air should also result in any afternoon
convection becoming more isolated, which may continue into next
weekend. Max and min temps are expected to remain near the daily
norms each day as well. /15/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
For the 03/00Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through most
of the period before widespread VCTS/SHRA/TSRA conditions develop
as early as 03/16Z through the end of the period, introducing
MVFR/IFR in the process (IFR also remains possible once again at
KLFK by 03/10Z-13Z). This is all thanks to a weak area of low
pressure expected to instigate more active weather across the area
tomorrow. Light easterly winds may gain some northerly component
as surface high pressure drifts southward. /16/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 91 69 91 / 10 50 20 40
MLU 69 92 69 93 / 10 30 10 20
DEQ 66 89 65 90 / 10 60 10 30
TXK 70 92 68 90 / 10 50 20 30
ELD 66 90 66 92 / 10 30 10 20
TYR 70 87 68 87 / 20 60 10 60
GGG 70 89 67 87 / 10 60 10 50
LFK 69 89 67 88 / 10 50 10 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
713 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
Issued at 713 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Right now we’re dealing with two separate areas of focus for
impending/ongoing severe convection. We still have the ongoing
supercells in southern Crockett County, where there’s still strong
effective shear of around 50 KT, effective Storm Relative Helicity
(SRH) of 100-200 m2/s2, and strong instability of 2500-3000 J/KG.
Thus, we expect those storms to continue to be severe in Crockett
County with potential giant hail, damaging winds of 75+ mph, a
tornado or two and flash flooding being the threat. As the storms
move east into Sutton/Schleicher counties (and especially
Kimble/Menard counties), there appears to be some higher
convective inhibition and slightly less favorable wind shear, so
there could be some weakening of those storms after they exit
Crockett County. Elsewhere, there is a line of storms (otherwise
known as a Quasi Linear Convective System or QLCS) approaching the
Big Country from the west, and hi-res models indicate this line of
storms pushing through the Big Country during the 730 pm through
11 pm time-frame. With QLCS’s, the primary hazard is typically
severe winds. However, large hail and perhaps a brief tornado
embedded in the line are also possible. The southern Concho
Valley, including San Angelo, looks like it might miss out on any
storms.
SH
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Main focus in the short term is the potential for severe weather
this afternoon and evening. A tornado watch is in effect until
8PM for Sterling, Irion. and Crockett counties. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper level impulse nosing into the Big Bend
Region. Showers and thunderstorms have fired up ahead of the
dryline from eastern New Mexico into the northern Permian Basin.
An ongoing supercell in Pecos County developed a tornado near Fort
Stockton in the last hour. High res model guidance (including the
latest runs of the HRRR and WOFS) continues to focus the greatest
potential for additional thunderstorm development this evening
across the northern Edwards Plateau. SB CAPE values of 3000+ J/KG
and effective bulk shear values of 40-50 knots will foster an
environment favorable of very large hail and damaging winds. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well through the rest of
the afternoon and evening especially with any discrete supercell.
Additional storms over the Panhandle and South Plains could impact
portions of the Big Country later this evening and overnight
should they hold together. Damaging wind gusts would be the
primary threat with these storms especially if a squall line were
to develop. Also, any of these storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding
given PW values of greater than 1.2 inches.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
on Saturday afternoon. Confidence in coverage is low and will be
highly dependent on what happens the rest of today and overnight.
Will keep a chance of PoPs in the grids. Severe threat overall
will be lower but we could again see some locally heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds with any storms. Highs will
be pleasant for the fist week of June, with afternoon temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Little change in the extended forecast period. A broad upper
trough will persist across the southern Plains though the weekend.
An unstable airmass will remain in place across the area, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day through
Monday, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. It
still appears that Sunday will see the better coverage and will
maintain highest POPs that day. There is still a threat for some
locally severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening, but the
severe threat diminishes by Sunday due to weaker shear.
Beyond Monday, weak ridging will reside over West Texas similar
to what we saw last weekend. This pattern will support isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms just about each day,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. At this time
it appears that the threat for severe storms will be rather low,
with heavy rainfall and localized flooding becoming the main
issue. Temperatures next week will remain slightly cooler than
normal for this time of year, with daytime highs in the 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023
Virga aloft produced over 50 KTS of wind at San Angelo at 23Z/
While winds have temporarily dropped, there is another area of
strong winds just southeast and south...where an weather service
employee estimated 70 mph winds. Thus will keep 50 KTS of wind
for KSJT through 1Z. Elsewhere, a band of thunderstorms will
likely move over KABI beginning 2Z as a complex of storms to the
west, moves east. KSOA and KJCT may see thunderstorms through 6Z.
While the strongest of complex of storms may stay south of KSOA
and KJCT, they may have strong winds and thunder. MVFR stratus
otherwise returns early to mid morning at KSOA, KJCT and
KSJT...scattering out by noon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 62 82 64 82 / 60 30 30 70
San Angelo 64 84 62 86 / 50 40 30 50
Junction 65 89 64 87 / 40 30 30 50
Brownwood 64 87 64 84 / 50 30 30 70
Sweetwater 62 82 62 82 / 60 40 40 70
Ozona 64 84 62 85 / 50 40 30 40
Brady 65 86 64 83 / 40 30 30 70
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Crockett-Irion-
Schleicher-Sutton-Tom Green.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
736 PM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Another afternoon of showers and storms today, with most
of the activity focused in Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties.
Drier and warmer conditions this weekend before precipitation
chances and slightly cooler weather return next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
A few lingering showers remain across portions of Lincoln, northern
Clark, and northern Mohave Counties. These are expected to dissipate
over the next couple of hours as we lose daytime heating. The latest
HRRR is indicating that we could see an additional area of showers
move across northern Lincoln County toward midnight as there seems
to be a little area of enhanced vorticity moving across the region,
but overall should be a quick shot. Most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to be east of the area Saturday
with generally mostly sunny skies across the area.
Sunday continues to be the best day of seeing Las Vegas`s first 100
degree day and the latest NBM has increased that chance to 17%, up
from 13% 6 hours ago, but in any case, the temperatures will remain
above normal through the weekend before we start to see a cooling
trend next week. No updates planned.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION
1242 PM PDT Fri Jun 2 2023
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
Current water vapor satellite imagery shows a compact closed low
trekking across northern Nevada. Upper-level diffluence southeast of
this low will aid convective development across the eastern Great
Basin this afternoon. In our area, showers and storms should be
focused in Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties where upper-level
support is greatest. However, more isolated activity may extend
southwest into northern Clark, central Nye, and Inyo Counties if
updrafts can overcome the warming temperatures aloft. 12z HREF mean
paints all the aforementioned locations with anywhere from 100-750
J/kg of CAPE today, with the highest values in Lincoln County.
Forecast soundings depict inverted-V profiles extending up past
700mb, producing DCAPE values of 800-1200 J/kg and indicating
that sub-cloud evaporation will be extensive. As a result, not
really concerned with any flood threat as the dry low-levels
should make gusty outflow winds and lightning the main concerns.
Would not be surprised to see gusts of 40-50 mph with the more
robust storms. Convection will wane as the sun sets this evening.
Tomorrow, the area looks to be much drier, with just some low PoPs
lingering in far northeast Lincoln County and the Sierra crest.
Dry conditions likely Sunday as well.
Beyond the precipitation chances, this weekend looks pretty quiet,
though it will be warm. Temperatures warm a couple degrees each day,
with Sunday being the hottest day of the week. Latest NBM is still
skeptical of Las Vegas reaching 100 (despite the deterministic
forecast being 99), with only a 12% chance of hitting the century
mark. Regardless of the whether we hit 99 or 100, temperatures will
be above normal. Light southerly breezes with gusts 10-20 mph each
day.
.LONG TERM...Next Week.
The weak shortwave ridge fully breaks down on Monday as a low
develops along the SoCal Coast. Ensemble guidance subsequently parks
the low, leaving it to meander in Central-Southern California
through Wednesday. Towards the latter half of the work week, models
hint at the low merging with the background flow, opening up, and
lifting north. Until that happens, this feature will drive the
sensible weather experienced in our CWA.
Positioned east of the low, southerly flow is forecast to advect
anomalous moisture into western portions of the CWA. This southerly
flow will also result in breezy conditions across the region. The
combination of moisture and upper-level diffluence downstream of the
low will bring precipitation chances back to the region, primarily
our western and northern zones. Latest NBM highlights the high
terrain in these areas with 20-50% PoPs Monday and Tuesday. This
correlates well with the latest LREF, which paints these
locations with a 20-50% probability of CAPE greater than 250 J/kg.
As we get into Wednesday-Friday, CAPE threshold and precipitation
probabilities decrease, likely due to model uncertainty with the
evolution of the low. Regardless of the exact details, the
synoptic pattern supports above-normal precipitation chances next
week.
On the temperature side of things, highs gradually cool through the
first half of the week. The current forecast has the coolest day
being Wednesday, with a high of 91 in Las Vegas. Temperatures across
the region are expected to be 5-8 degrees below normal during this
time, so if you aren`t fortunate enough to get precipitation, at
least you`ll experience some cooler weather. As eluded to in the
Short-Term discussion, if we manage to get through Sunday without
seeing 100 in Vegas, it could be another week or so until we see our
next shot. Not including today (June 2), we sit at 266 consecutive
days below 100 degrees, which is the 15th longest streak in the
period of record (1937). If we can hold off until June 11th or
later, which the NBM suggests is a very real possibility, we`d be at
275 consecutive days (4th longest streak). The latest CPC outlooks
keep us below normal through the middle of June, so it`s not out of
the real of possibility that we threaten the top 3 streaks (277,
288, and 290 days).
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southerly breezes are expected to
prevail through the afternoon and evening hours, tending to veer
more southwesterly late in the day. Speeds will generally be in the
8-12 knot range with sporadic higher gusts before weakening after
dark. Similar conditions expected Saturday with winds trending a
touch lighter. Otherwise, no operationally significant clouds or
weather expected.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Generally light winds are expected through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening, favoring southerly
directions. Occasional gusts of 12-19 knots will be possible
especially in the Colorado River Valley. Winds will decrease after
dark. Similar conditions expected Saturday with just a few afternoon
cumulus clouds generally AOA 10kft AGL.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gorelow
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Outler
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