Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/02/23


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
939 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push west on Friday and a backdoor cold front will increase chances for rain late Friday afternoon through Saturday. Cooler temperatures are expected across the area this weekend and into the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 920 PM Update... Temps have fallen into the upper 60s to mid 70s across the region. Clear skies tonight with light winds and dry air will allow for radiational cooling to drop temps down into the mid to upper 50s. Forecast remains hot for tomorrow. Ensemble guidance is showing highs across the twin Tiers in the low to mid 90s, with the valleys being the hot spots. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to move into the area from the NNE during the afternoon hours as a shortwave drops into northern New England from Canada. Guidance is placing most of these storms east of I-81 as west of here will still be mostly controlled by high pressure retrograding westward. High temps across the Mohawk Valley will be dependent on when/if storms move over the area. If storms can impact the region, highs will make it into the mid to upper 80s, but if they delay until later in the afternoon or don`t develop at all, highs will push the mid 90s. 620 PM Update... It was a hot one this afternoon with record high broken at Binghamton and tied at Syracuse and Avoca. Currently, temps range from the low 90 to mid 80s across the region. Adjusted hourly temperature grids to hold onto heat a little longer than what was forecast given the temp trends. RH is 25-30% across the area so things will quickly cool off as the sun sets. We should be in the mid to upper 70s across the area by 9pm. The rest of the forecast remains on track with hot temps expected again tomorrow and afternoon showers and storms. 235 PM Update... High pressure remains overhead this afternoon with hot and dry conditions. By tonight, ridging will start to shift westward and will continue pushing west tomorrow, however it is also looking like the warmest day of the week with widespread 90s possible. Did not warm the high temperatures too much over models as there is more moisture and thus a better chance at clouds developing during the afternoon, especially east of I81. Instability will be maximized east of the I81 corridor tomorrow afternoon with forecast soundings showing MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Also, a weak 500 mb shortwave will be pushing in from the north as the upper level ridge continues moving farther west. Hard to say at this time how far west the storms will make it tomorrow afternoon and evening as mid level capping increases the farther west you go. Wind shear is very weak, however there is plenty of dry air with model soundings showing an inverted V in the low levels with large dew point depressions. This could support a few of dry microburst as thunderstorms weaken and current CAM runs of the HRRR and NAMNest are also showing this as a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will start to decrease in coverage tomorrow night with the loss of heating. However, as upper trough drops southward into New England, further height falls may support more shower activity overnight and into Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 240 PM Update... Over the weekend, an upper-level low will move through the Northeast. North to northwesterly flow will advect cooler air into the region through the weekend. Highs will go from the 70s on Saturday to 60s and 70s on Sunday. Lows are expected to be in the 40s both nights. Models continue to show some showers for Saturday, and that continues to look to be the case in the morning hours. Some model guidance favors drier conditions by Saturday afternoon, which will then limit precipitation chances. BUFKIT soundings are dry in the mid-levels with very little moisture near the surface. Because of this, PoPs were greatly reduced below most guidance, especially Saturday afternoon. Then through the rest of the weekend, PoPs were capped at just slight chance since high pressure will fill in behind the departing low. The trend is leaning toward a dry second half of the weekend. Based on all of this, the weekend is not looking as wet as previously forecasted and the search for more widespread, beneficial rainfall continues. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 240 PM Update... The aforementioned low moves out to sea to start next week. An upper- level ridge will quickly pass through on Monday as precipitation chances will be limited during the daytime hours. Another upper low will move into the region Monday night and hang around through the rest of the long-term forecast period. This system will keep conditions cool with highs only in the 60s and 70s. There will be multiple chances for rain showers as the system spins over the upper Northeast. While instability will be limited, afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure continues through tonight and through Friday morning, with light winds and VFR conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over east-central New York in the afternoon, and spread west. Coverage is expected to be scattered, with probabilities too low to mention in the TAFs at this point, but may be added in future forecasts. Outlook... Friday Night...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but some brief restrictions will be possible from showers early on Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC/MPK SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...MPK/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
631 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Summary: The warm summer pattern will persist through the weekend before a pattern shift arrives Monday bringing cooler and drier conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. High pressure was in place across the eastern Great Lakes early this afternoon with an area of weak low pressure over eastern North Dakota. A warm/stationary boundary extended from this low into southern Minnesota with another stationary boundary draped from west to east to the north of the International Border. Morning shower and thunderstorm activity across northeastern Minnesota has diminished as new showers and storms have begun to develop across northwest Wisconsin. As temperatures this afternoon warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s, CAPE of around 1500-2500 J/kg is forecast to develop across much of the area with higher areas approaching 3000 J/kg across northwest Wisconsin per the latest SPC RAP analysis. This will lead to the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into tonight. CAMs are favoring more of northwestern Minnesota and, to a lesser extent northwest Wisconsin, for the development of this activity. HREF ensembles show this same signal as well. While instability and moisture will be in place, shear is practically non-existent, so any storms that do develop will likely collapse on themselves. While severe storms are not expected, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out with gusty winds to around 40 mph and small hail being possible. PWATs will be around 1.25", so brief, heavy downpours will be possible in any storms as well. While not near the top of climatology for today, this is in the 90th percentile for PWATs. Showers and storms will then diminish overnight before similar forecast conditions return for Friday through Sunday with afternoon highs mainly in the 80s and lower 90s with showers and storms developing for the afternoon and evening hours. CAMs do show more widespread coverage for Friday of this activity, but again shear will be lacking, so no severe storms are expected. Winds look to be fairly light through the weekend which may allow the lake breeze to make a push inland during the afternoon hours. However, the best chances for cooler temperatures will be within a few miles of Lake Superior. A pattern change then looks likely heading into the new week as a back door cold front pushes to the south and southwest out of northwestern Ontario and high pressure builds in behind it. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be seen along and ahead of the cold front on Monday before drying out for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure takes control. Temperatures will also trend cooler behind the front with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. With this air mass expected to be dry, this will lead to increased fire weather conditions next week as RH values will fall below 35% over much of the area. Winds will be generally light during this time, but RH values will be low enough such that critical fire weather conditions look possible for at least the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 A warm and moist airmass is in place across the Northland and will remain through the period. Forcing was rather weak but it hasn`t taken much to produce showers and thunderstorms. The showers/storms are moving slow and producing heavy rain in spots. Some of the stronger thunderstorms will also produce small hail and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph. The coverage/intensity of the thunderstorms are expected to wane later this evening and overnight. A dip to MVFR or possible IFR conditions will be possible for any locations that is affected by a stronger storm. Winds will remain off of Lake Superior and some fog/stratus will be possible around Lake Superior later tonight, possibly affecting KDLH. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Winds will remain around 5 to 15 knots through the forecast period, mainly out of the northeast and highest from the midday through early evening hours. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Friday afternoon and evening. Small hail and gusty winds to around 30 knots will be possible in any storms. Otherwise, little in marine concerns into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 55 76 55 78 / 40 30 20 30 INL 61 88 61 89 / 30 30 20 50 BRD 64 87 63 88 / 30 40 20 50 HYR 62 88 60 90 / 30 60 20 30 ASX 53 77 50 77 / 50 50 20 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...Melde MARINE...BJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
633 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Take Home Points: *Rinse and repeat continues into weekend with scattered showers/storms *Drier air begins to filter in late weekend *Reinforcing dry, and cooler, air slides in mid-week Discussion: Recent weather pattern will broadly continue to end the week and start the weekend before transition will bring about drier, and eventually a bit cooler, conditions. Effectively the lingering Rex block will begin its transition towards an Omega block as the upper level ridge/high retrogrades westward into the Northern Plains and Canadian Plains by the weekend. Hi-res/CAM guidance continues to, understandably, struggle with the current weather pattern. With the absence of strong/notable features driving PoP chances, instead being driven by weak forcing features and air mass type convection, predictability remains on the low end with regards to ultimate placement and to some degree coverage of showers/storms. The result remains fairly widespread/blanketed low to mid range PoPs to round out the week and start the weekend. As has been mentioned previously, fortunately severe threats remain minimal within this type of pattern (moist profiles, weak flow through column, skinnier CAPE profiles), unfortunately the low geographic predictability results in the broadbrushed PoPs more than a few hours ahead of current. Some small hail, gusty winds will be possible with strongest updrafts, but primary threat will remain heavy rainfall due to slow motions and efficient rainfall processes providing opportunities for 2 or more inches of rainfall in relatively short periods of time. Scattered coverage will limit issues overall, but urban areas will remain most susceptible, as seen in previous days. More specifically for the rest of today/tonight, morning HRRR runs picked up shower/storm coverage depictions for the afternoon, which have broadly come to fruition early this afternoon. Have adjusted PoPs to account for this, otherwise previously mentioned expectations/threats/concerns remain. Activity should ramp down after 00z. LLJ activity is expected to primarily reside westward into KS/NE, keeping much of the state quiet over night. Into the weekend and next week, as the upper ridge/high slides westward, a series of waves of drier air will begin to approach the area from the E/NE. This will broadly result in a reduction in shower/storm activity as it is shunted westward, though not completely eliminate it with ribbons of moisture wrapping around the central CONUS/Canadian ridge/high and sandwiched in between pushes of drier/cooler air. Result here being semi-uncertain precip chances late weekend into early next week within guidance. The best chance looks to be Monday/Monday night with a stronger push of drier/cooler air as an area of high pressure slides southward behind eastern Canadian/New England trough. While temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm, lower dew points will result in comfortable conditions overall. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/ Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Scattered thunderstorms continue across the southern two thirds of Iowa this evening and are expected to diminish after dark. Main impacts this evening will be to KDSM where lightning has diminished leaving VCSH, and to KOTM where some thunderstorm potential exists for the next few hours. Once again, thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon, impacting KDSM before spreading to other sites. This will be addressed in future updates. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Hagenhoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
728 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 KGRR radar trends the past hour show scattered showers and isolated convection has developed west of US-131 to the SSW of KGRR in an area of lake breeze convergence and where sb/ml cape values have already reached 1000-1500 j/kg with sfc li/s down to -4 to -6. No svr wx is expected given lack of stronger forcing and weak deep layer shear. However convection may contain wind gusts to around 40 mph given favorable dcape values on the order of 1000-1200 j/kg and inverted v soundings and nearly dry adiabatic low level lapse rates. Steep mid level lapse rates also support potential for small hail. Latest HREF guidance and CAMs suggest that scattered showers and isolated convection will continue to develop through the late afternoon/early evening hours near to mainly SSW of KGRR before dissipating quickly after sunset with the diurnal decrease in instability. Hot weather will continue Friday with record or near record high temps reaching the lower to middle 90s across most of our area (once again much cooler right along the Lake MI shoreline). The chance for rain Friday afternoon is less than today given a somewhat drier airmass in place by tomorrow. In fact the 00Z HREF as well as 3km nam and 12Z HRRR do not show any potential for convection tomorrow afternoon and this seems reasonable given very little instability and less moisture. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 - Heat Departs After Saturday; Dry Weather Continues to Dominate The last day for 90 degree (or near-90 degree) temperatures for the foreseeable future will be Saturday. ECMWF guidance is indicating 18C-20C air at 850 mb overhead on Saturday. This will help ensure another very warm to hot day on Saturday. In terms of cloud cover, model RH is supporting a mix of some high clouds and also diurnal cu generation along the lake breeze convergence. Thus, expect a mix of clouds and sun for most locations. Isolated to widely scattered showers may develop primarily near and west of U.S. 131 with a chance for a thunderstorm or two as SBCAPE values are projected to be around 1000 J/kg during the afternoon. None of this shower activity will do anything to change the growing region of abnormally dry conditions across our area. Only spotty, localized, and temporary relief is expected. A retrograding upper level high to our west and a deepening upper low across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast will dominate the pattern from Sunday through the end of the upcoming week. Michigan will be between these systems with little hope for any rain given low level easterly or northeasterly flow bringing low dewpoints and dry conditions from the source region of interior Ontario. Looking at June`s climatological wind rose data for Grand Rapids (a graphic that shows over 40 years of observed wind speed and direction at Grand Rapids), it is climatologically unusual to get a wind direction dominated by some easterly component for this time of year. The same is true at our other climatological sites. Outside of our lakeshore region, inland sites have been experiencing wind with an easterly component (NE/E/SE) since May 24. The extended forecast calls for this to basically continue unabated for most locations. A fairly strong surface cold front is projected to move through on Monday as upper troughing and upper low development occurs across eastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures will drop considerably behind this front and high temperatures will retreat into the 70s to near 80 for much of next week. Ahead of and along the front on Monday, a low risk for scattered showers exists, but this front will also do nothing to provide meaningful rain given dew points in the paltry upper 40s to around 50 ahead of it. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Isolated showers and thunderstorms along an outflow-reinforced lake breeze near KGRR will be diminishing by sunset. VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Winds will go light and variable tonight then go east around 5 to 10 knots on Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 A high pressure ridge will continue to build in through Friday and result in fairly minimal wind speeds and wave heights. As has been the pattern all week the light gradient will be conducive to lake breeze formation again Friday with winds near the beaches veering to the nw and strengthening to around 10 to 15 kts by around midday. A consensus of latest wind speed data from the 3km nam and hrrr runs suggests wind speeds will stay below sca criteria Friday. A similar day is expected Saturday with fair wx and fairly minimal winds and wave heights. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Laurens LONG TERM...Hoving AVIATION...Ostuno MARINE...Laurens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Inland ridging and weak coastal troughing continues through late week and into the weekend. Reinforcing high pressure will build early next week while low pressure forms well off the SE US coast and moves away from ENC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 955 PM Thu...Very unusual CAD pattern for early summer continues from the Mid-Atlantic to southeast US. A sharp trough continues to linger offshore with weak waves of low pressure migrating along it while inland, high pressure ridges south. The moist cyclonic flow we`ve been trapped under for the past couple days will persist through Fri. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, isolated showers persist, especially vicinity of the southern Outer Banks. Some of the high-res models like the HRRR are forecasting the isolated showers to continue overnight into Fri morning and have added a slight chance PoP for the southern OBX where the greatest chance exists. Guidance continues to strongly indicate widespread low stratus and coastal fog overnight, especially for the northern Outer Banks as low level moisture plume remains in place. Fog coverage last night and this morning was generally not as severe as the most reliable guidance (GFS LAMP) was suggesting, and made appropriate adjustments keeping dense fog along/near the northern coast where foggy conditions will occur cross the Northern Outer Banks and the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula with lows area wide in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 340 PM Thu...Little change in the pattern tomorrow as upper low continues to meander off the coast. Warmer conditions are expected tomorrow with dry air aloft mixing to the surface a bit more quickly than tomorrow, allowing highs to climb into the 80s inland once again. Some hi-res guidance suggests some spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two developing along the sea breeze mainly south of Highway 70, and this seems probable considering PWATs here will remain at or above 1.5". Carried a slight chance PoP here given the weak signal. Very weak shear means no severe threat is expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Thu...Deep layer nerly flow will cont through the weekend and translate to a lack of instability and thus slim to no thunder chances. Reinforcing cooler pattern for the second half of the weekend to early next week as the ern CONUS remains under influence of upper troughing and lower than climo hts/thicknesses. Saturday through Sunday...The weekend has cont to trend drier as broad sfc ridge extends down into ENC from the Mid Atlantic/New England. Sat will be quite warm as more sunshine should be realized along with higher hts ahead of reinforcing nerly surge set to move through on Sat night/Sun. Highs Sat in the mid 80s interior to 70s beaches. Sun will be much cooler with aforementioned reinforcing cool surge and highs all areas in the 70s. Sun night coolest of the period with lows well down into the 50s, with some low 50s in the normally cooler locales. Continued dry conditions through the weekend. Monday through Wednesday...Low pressure should form off the SE US coast early next week, though reinforcing sfc ridge from the NE US will shunt this low well out to sea and thus mainly dry cond will persist. Have included a silent 20% pop for Mon night and again Tue night as several low amplitude shortwaves may bring a passing shower to the region. Temps will moderate back to near climo in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s this period. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 615 PM Thu...Current VFR conditions should deteriorate to IFR after 3Z this evening as nocturnal inversion sets up and low level moisture continues to spread across eastern NC in the NE low level flow. Already seeing LIFR/IFR conditions across northeast NC and the guidance is spreading these conditions southwest overnight. Guidance hangs onto IFR conditions into Fri afternoon and does not develop VFR conditions until late afternoon. This may be overdone as deeper summer mixed layer should develop and mix out the low level moisture but this CAD surface pattern is anomalous for early summer which lowers confidence in any guidance. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Thu...Mostly dry conditions through the period as sfc high pres noses down from New England. Gusting nerly winds 15-25 kt) expected on Sunday though rest of the period should feature winds 10-15 kt or less. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 955 PM Thu...Coastal trough lingers offshore with weak waves of low pressure migrating along the boundary while high pressure ridges south inland. Northeast winds of 10-20 kt persist across area waters with seas 4-5 ft north of Cape Lookout and 2-4 ft south. These conditions are expected to persist with little change in the surface pattern, although as the surface trough weakens Fri, winds will probably be a couple knots lower than today. Seas will also likely drop a foot or so from current observations tomorrow. Given the persistence forecast, marine fog - locally dense at times - will occur again tonight especially for the waters north of Cape Hatteras and adjacent sounds. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Thu....Another round of gusty winds and building seas by the weekend as low pres organizes well off the SE coast and reinforcing cool northeasterly surge with building high to the north occurs. SCA develops Sat evening and lasts through Sun with winds of 20-25 kt and seas 6-9 ft. The low will remain well out at sea, and thus minimal rain chances with this system. Winds quickly diminish Sun night as transitory high pres builds in. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 615 PM Thu...The combination of high astronomical tides and a period of stronger northeast winds may produce minor to moderate coastal flooding, ocean side north of Cape Hatteras and soundside over the southern Pamlico Sound basin beginning Friday night, and peaking Sat into Sunday when the strongest winds are forecast to occur. Some ocean overwash will also be possible, particularly on the oceanside Outer Banks. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-135-150- 152-154-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JME/TL/MS MARINE...JME/TL/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1055 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Weak wave of low pressure may bring isolated showers this afternoon into tonight across NC, but most will stay dry. Temperatures turn warmer each day into Saturday, but a backdoor cold front should arrive during late Saturday into Sunday with another chance of rain with cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1055 PM EDT Thursday... Minor changes for overnight forecast... Made minor adjustments to the temperatures and cloud cover based on the latest satellite and observation trends. Isolated showers have dissipated. No precipitation is expected for the rest of the night. 730 PM discussion... Expecting this cloud cover to decrease through the night, allowing for good radiational cooling. Have adjusted low temperatures tonight down a degree or two to account for this. Some patchy river valley fog may develop tomorrow morning over the Greenbrier and New River. So far, only a few light showers have been observed outside of the area, in east- central NC and far western NC, but moving southwestward and farther away from the area. Any shower activity will likely diminish by sunset. Overall, no changes made for this evening`s update, forecast remains on track. Previous discussion below... As of 137 PM EDT Thursday... High pressure over the Northeast will control our weather tonight into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure off in the atlantic ocean will weaken and fill. The HRRR, RAP and HiRESW-ARW support the mention of an isolated shower or storm this afternoon into this evening mainly in the east. Any convection will fade by sunset with the loss of solar heating. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s in the deeper valleys of the mountains to around 60 degrees in the Piedmont where clouds may linger. The high center will keep Friday on the dry side with warmer than normal temperatures. Highs will warm the mid 70s in the mountains to the mid and upper 80s in the Piedmont. Forecast confidence is moderate. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 137 PM EDT Thursday... Confidence is increasing for showers and thunderstorms from a backdoor cold front during late Saturday. A large upper level ridge over the central Plains will block any weather features arriving from the west throughout the weekend. However, the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast should reside in a persistent troughing pattern. A deep upper level low will dive southwestward from eastern Canada during Friday night into Saturday. While conditions should remain quiet on Friday night, showers and thunderstorms will develop along a backdoor cold front associated with this upper level low by Saturday. This convection could reach central Virginia during the afternoon and spread southwestward to reach northwest North Carolina, southeast West Virginia, and southwest Virginia towards Saturday evening. Due to compressional warming, temperatures should soar into the 80s for most locations ahead of this approaching frontal boundary on Saturday. However, this added warmth will fuel unstable conditions with CAPE climbing up to 1,500 J/kg. Model soundings indicate a potential gusty wind threat with any storms that become strong if they arrive quickly enough before the loss of daytime heating. Any convective activity should taper to showers by early Sunday morning. Temperatures will turn notably cooler for the remainder of the weekend, especially east of the Blue Ridge. The cold front should stall across North Carolina on Sunday before moving eastward towards the coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop again on Sunday afternoon, but coverage of any convection should be notably less compared to Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 137 PM EDT Thursday... Confidence is moderate for daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms during early next week. With a large upper level ridge across the central Plains stretching northwards into Canada that will block anything arriving from the west, the Mid Atlantic will continue to have a deep upper level low influencing the weather pattern through early next week as it spins over the New England states. Several shortwave troughs spiraling around the upper level low will swing over the Appalachian Mountains to promote lift and instability to spark daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Monday through Wednesday. The upper level low may begin to depart eastward by Wednesday night into Thursday, which will allow drier air from the west to arrive. Temperatures will continue to hover near normal values for early June, so no considerable heat is forthcoming until the upper level low completely exits later in the week. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions are observed across the area, with some mid and high clouds over the Foothills and Piedmont, moving generally southwestward. This cloud cover is expected to decrease overnight, allowing for good radiational cooling due to clearer skies. This will increase the potential for river and mountain valley fog, so therefore have included patchy fog in the TAFs for KLWB and KBCB for a few hours Friday morning. Any fog that does develop will likely diminish not long after sunrise, around 14Z, once daytime mixing kicks in. Not expecting much shower activity impacting any area terminals for the remainder of the evening, as much of the few light showers that are occuring are outside of the area in east- central NC. Friday, VFR conditions will continue areawide. Winds will be mostly northeasterly through Friday, between 5 to 10 knots. Forecast confidence is high, but moderate regarding fog development. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions should hold into early Saturday. A backdoor cold front will approach late Saturday into Sunday to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with possible sub- VFR conditions. The chance of rain could linger into Monday. Afternoon MVFR showers and storms are possible on Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/AS SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...KK/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1206 PM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Shower and storm chances return this afternoon, primarily to areas northwest of Interstate-15 as temperatures across the region remain below normal. Tomorrow, things warm up slightly as precipitation chances focus in Lincoln County. Drier and warmer this weekend before rain chances return next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Friday. Latest radar and satellite imagery shows showers and storms beginning to develop in southwest Utah and the southeastern Great Basin. This scattered activity is expected to continue and spread west through the afternoon. This morning`s sounding had a PWAT value of 0.57", which is right at the 75th percentile of the sounding climatology for the date. Anomalous moisture along with a combination of terrain and larger- scale forcing from a shortwave along the CA-OR border will fire scattered showers and storms across our northern locations this afternoon. 12z HREF ensemble mean highlights roughly 100-300 J/kg of CAPE across areas northwest of I-15, particularly Esmeralda County. Ensemble max places a few 750-1000 J/kg contours in these areas. RAP forecast DCAPE values range between 700-1000 J/kg during the afternoon hours. Given the parameter space, gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the main concerns. However, cannot completely rule out isolated flash flooding in sensitive locations. Storm potential should fade with the setting sun, but shower activity may linger through midnight across the Southern Great Basin based on recent CAMs. For the rest of the area, southerly breezes continue with temperatures remaining below normal for this time of year. On Friday, precipitation chances shift east and become focused in Lincoln County, with PoPs between 20-50%. Otherwise, similar conditions to today. South breezes 10-20 mph with temperatures slightly warmer. .LONG TERM...This weekend and early next week. As we head into the weekend, shortwave ridging tries to develop across the southwestern US. This causes most of the area to dry out, with just 10-20% precip chances lingering on the Sierra Crest and our northeastern locations. Height rises also result in warming temperatures through the weekend, with highs reaching above normal values on Sunday. Will Las Vegas see its first 100 of the year? Based on the latest NBM, Las Vegas only has an 8% chance of reaching 100, so we`ll likely be keeping our streak of 265 consecutive days below 100 alive. Especially since ensemble guidance develops another area of low pressure off the SoCal Coast on Monday. This will once again spur afternoon shower/storm chances, primarily across our northern locations. Models slowly bring the low inland during the first half of the work week, keeping PoPs around and temperature below normal. Could also see breezy conditions with this system, but the precipitation chances and cooler temperatures should be the most notable features. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Moderate south to southwest winds with occasional gusts are expected into the early evening hours before decreasing and returning to a more southerly direction overnight. Isolated convection is expected again this afternoon, except most storms should remain over the higher terrain north and northwest of the Vegas Valley, and the chance of outflow winds reaching the field is less than what was seen yesterday. Similar conditions are forecast for Friday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...South to southwest winds, which will be gusty at times, will prevail across the region into this evening before decreasing overnight. Scattered areas of convection are expected once again this afternoon and evening, mainly across Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln Counties. The main threat from these storms will be gusty, erratic winds and lower ceilings obscuring higher terrain. Similar conditions are expected Friday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter