Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/02/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
939 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push west on Friday and a backdoor cold
front will increase chances for rain late Friday afternoon
through Saturday. Cooler temperatures are expected across the
area this weekend and into the first half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
920 PM Update...
Temps have fallen into the upper 60s to mid 70s across the
region. Clear skies tonight with light winds and dry air will
allow for radiational cooling to drop temps down into the mid to
upper 50s.
Forecast remains hot for tomorrow. Ensemble guidance is showing
highs across the twin Tiers in the low to mid 90s, with the
valleys being the hot spots. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to move into the area from the NNE
during the afternoon hours as a shortwave drops into northern
New England from Canada. Guidance is placing most of these
storms east of I-81 as west of here will still be mostly
controlled by high pressure retrograding westward. High temps
across the Mohawk Valley will be dependent on when/if storms
move over the area. If storms can impact the region, highs will
make it into the mid to upper 80s, but if they delay until later
in the afternoon or don`t develop at all, highs will push the
mid 90s.
620 PM Update...
It was a hot one this afternoon with record high broken at
Binghamton and tied at Syracuse and Avoca. Currently, temps
range from the low 90 to mid 80s across the region. Adjusted
hourly temperature grids to hold onto heat a little longer than
what was forecast given the temp trends. RH is 25-30% across the
area so things will quickly cool off as the sun sets. We should
be in the mid to upper 70s across the area by 9pm.
The rest of the forecast remains on track with hot temps
expected again tomorrow and afternoon showers and storms.
235 PM Update...
High pressure remains overhead this afternoon with hot and dry
conditions. By tonight, ridging will start to shift westward and
will continue pushing west tomorrow, however it is also looking
like the warmest day of the week with widespread 90s possible.
Did not warm the high temperatures too much over models as there
is more moisture and thus a better chance at clouds developing
during the afternoon, especially east of I81.
Instability will be maximized east of the I81 corridor tomorrow
afternoon with forecast soundings showing MLCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 J/kg. Also, a weak 500 mb shortwave will be pushing in
from the north as the upper level ridge continues moving
farther west. Hard to say at this time how far west the storms
will make it tomorrow afternoon and evening as mid level capping
increases the farther west you go. Wind shear is very weak,
however there is plenty of dry air with model soundings showing
an inverted V in the low levels with large dew point
depressions. This could support a few of dry microburst as
thunderstorms weaken and current CAM runs of the HRRR and
NAMNest are also showing this as a possibility.
Showers and thunderstorms will start to decrease in coverage
tomorrow night with the loss of heating. However, as upper
trough drops southward into New England, further height falls
may support more shower activity overnight and into Saturday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update...
Over the weekend, an upper-level low will move through the
Northeast. North to northwesterly flow will advect cooler air into
the region through the weekend. Highs will go from the 70s on
Saturday to 60s and 70s on Sunday. Lows are expected to be in the
40s both nights.
Models continue to show some showers for Saturday, and that
continues to look to be the case in the morning hours. Some model
guidance favors drier conditions by Saturday afternoon, which will
then limit precipitation chances. BUFKIT soundings are dry in the
mid-levels with very little moisture near the surface. Because of
this, PoPs were greatly reduced below most guidance, especially
Saturday afternoon. Then through the rest of the weekend, PoPs were
capped at just slight chance since high pressure will fill in behind
the departing low. The trend is leaning toward a dry second half of
the weekend. Based on all of this, the weekend is not looking as wet
as previously forecasted and the search for more widespread,
beneficial rainfall continues.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
240 PM Update...
The aforementioned low moves out to sea to start next week. An upper-
level ridge will quickly pass through on Monday as precipitation
chances will be limited during the daytime hours. Another upper low
will move into the region Monday night and hang around through the
rest of the long-term forecast period. This system will keep
conditions cool with highs only in the 60s and 70s. There will be
multiple chances for rain showers as the system spins over the upper
Northeast. While instability will be limited, afternoon
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues through tonight and through Friday
morning, with light winds and VFR conditions. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop over east-central New York in the
afternoon, and spread west. Coverage is expected to be
scattered, with probabilities too low to mention in the TAFs at
this point, but may be added in future forecasts.
Outlook...
Friday Night...Mainly VFR.
Saturday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but some brief
restrictions will be possible from showers early on Saturday.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPK/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
631 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023
Summary: The warm summer pattern will persist through the weekend
before a pattern shift arrives Monday bringing cooler and drier
conditions for the remainder of the forecast period.
High pressure was in place across the eastern Great Lakes early this
afternoon with an area of weak low pressure over eastern North
Dakota. A warm/stationary boundary extended from this low into
southern Minnesota with another stationary boundary draped from
west to east to the north of the International Border. Morning
shower and thunderstorm activity across northeastern Minnesota has
diminished as new showers and storms have begun to develop across
northwest Wisconsin. As temperatures this afternoon warm into the
80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s, CAPE of around
1500-2500 J/kg is forecast to develop across much of the area with
higher areas approaching 3000 J/kg across northwest Wisconsin per
the latest SPC RAP analysis. This will lead to the development of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and into tonight. CAMs are favoring more of northwestern Minnesota
and, to a lesser extent northwest Wisconsin, for the development
of this activity. HREF ensembles show this same signal as well.
While instability and moisture will be in place, shear is
practically non-existent, so any storms that do develop will
likely collapse on themselves. While severe storms are not
expected, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out with gusty
winds to around 40 mph and small hail being possible. PWATs will
be around 1.25", so brief, heavy downpours will be possible in any
storms as well. While not near the top of climatology for today,
this is in the 90th percentile for PWATs.
Showers and storms will then diminish overnight before similar
forecast conditions return for Friday through Sunday with afternoon
highs mainly in the 80s and lower 90s with showers and storms
developing for the afternoon and evening hours. CAMs do show more
widespread coverage for Friday of this activity, but again shear
will be lacking, so no severe storms are expected. Winds look to be
fairly light through the weekend which may allow the lake breeze to
make a push inland during the afternoon hours. However, the best
chances for cooler temperatures will be within a few miles of Lake
Superior.
A pattern change then looks likely heading into the new week as a
back door cold front pushes to the south and southwest out of
northwestern Ontario and high pressure builds in behind it. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be seen along and ahead of the
cold front on Monday before drying out for Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure takes control. Temperatures will also trend cooler
behind the front with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. With this air
mass expected to be dry, this will lead to increased fire weather
conditions next week as RH values will fall below 35% over much of
the area. Winds will be generally light during this time, but RH
values will be low enough such that critical fire weather conditions
look possible for at least the middle part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023
A warm and moist airmass is in place across the Northland and will
remain through the period. Forcing was rather weak but it hasn`t
taken much to produce showers and thunderstorms. The
showers/storms are moving slow and producing heavy rain in spots.
Some of the stronger thunderstorms will also produce small hail
and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph. The coverage/intensity of the
thunderstorms are expected to wane later this evening and
overnight. A dip to MVFR or possible IFR conditions will be
possible for any locations that is affected by a stronger storm.
Winds will remain off of Lake Superior and some fog/stratus will
be possible around Lake Superior later tonight, possibly affecting
KDLH.
More showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023
Winds will remain around 5 to 15 knots through the forecast
period, mainly out of the northeast and highest from the midday
through early evening hours. There will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Friday
afternoon and evening. Small hail and gusty winds to around 30
knots will be possible in any storms. Otherwise, little in marine
concerns into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 76 55 78 / 40 30 20 30
INL 61 88 61 89 / 30 30 20 50
BRD 64 87 63 88 / 30 40 20 50
HYR 62 88 60 90 / 30 60 20 30
ASX 53 77 50 77 / 50 50 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...BJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
633 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023
Take Home Points:
*Rinse and repeat continues into weekend with scattered
showers/storms
*Drier air begins to filter in late weekend
*Reinforcing dry, and cooler, air slides in mid-week
Discussion:
Recent weather pattern will broadly continue to end the week and
start the weekend before transition will bring about drier, and
eventually a bit cooler, conditions. Effectively the lingering Rex
block will begin its transition towards an Omega block as the upper
level ridge/high retrogrades westward into the Northern Plains and
Canadian Plains by the weekend.
Hi-res/CAM guidance continues to, understandably, struggle with the
current weather pattern. With the absence of strong/notable features
driving PoP chances, instead being driven by weak forcing features
and air mass type convection, predictability remains on the low end
with regards to ultimate placement and to some degree coverage of
showers/storms. The result remains fairly widespread/blanketed low
to mid range PoPs to round out the week and start the weekend. As
has been mentioned previously, fortunately severe threats remain
minimal within this type of pattern (moist profiles, weak flow
through column, skinnier CAPE profiles), unfortunately the low
geographic predictability results in the broadbrushed PoPs more than
a few hours ahead of current. Some small hail, gusty winds will
be possible with strongest updrafts, but primary threat will
remain heavy rainfall due to slow motions and efficient rainfall
processes providing opportunities for 2 or more inches of rainfall
in relatively short periods of time. Scattered coverage will
limit issues overall, but urban areas will remain most
susceptible, as seen in previous days.
More specifically for the rest of today/tonight, morning HRRR runs
picked up shower/storm coverage depictions for the afternoon, which
have broadly come to fruition early this afternoon. Have adjusted
PoPs to account for this, otherwise previously mentioned
expectations/threats/concerns remain. Activity should ramp down
after 00z. LLJ activity is expected to primarily reside westward
into KS/NE, keeping much of the state quiet over night.
Into the weekend and next week, as the upper ridge/high slides
westward, a series of waves of drier air will begin to approach the
area from the E/NE. This will broadly result in a reduction in
shower/storm activity as it is shunted westward, though not
completely eliminate it with ribbons of moisture wrapping around the
central CONUS/Canadian ridge/high and sandwiched in between pushes
of drier/cooler air. Result here being semi-uncertain precip chances
late weekend into early next week within guidance. The best chance
looks to be Monday/Monday night with a stronger push of drier/cooler
air as an area of high pressure slides southward behind eastern
Canadian/New England trough. While temperatures are expected to
remain seasonably warm, lower dew points will result in comfortable
conditions overall.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023
Scattered thunderstorms continue across the southern two thirds of
Iowa this evening and are expected to diminish after dark. Main
impacts this evening will be to KDSM where lightning has
diminished leaving VCSH, and to KOTM where some thunderstorm
potential exists for the next few hours. Once again, thunderstorms
will develop Friday afternoon, impacting KDSM before spreading to
other sites. This will be addressed in future updates.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Hagenhoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
728 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
KGRR radar trends the past hour show scattered showers and
isolated convection has developed west of US-131 to the SSW of
KGRR in an area of lake breeze convergence and where sb/ml cape
values have already reached 1000-1500 j/kg with sfc li/s down to
-4 to -6.
No svr wx is expected given lack of stronger forcing and weak
deep layer shear. However convection may contain wind gusts to
around 40 mph given favorable dcape values on the order of
1000-1200 j/kg and inverted v soundings and nearly dry adiabatic
low level lapse rates. Steep mid level lapse rates also support
potential for small hail.
Latest HREF guidance and CAMs suggest that scattered showers and
isolated convection will continue to develop through the late
afternoon/early evening hours near to mainly SSW of KGRR before
dissipating quickly after sunset with the diurnal decrease in
instability.
Hot weather will continue Friday with record or near record high
temps reaching the lower to middle 90s across most of our area
(once again much cooler right along the Lake MI shoreline). The
chance for rain Friday afternoon is less than today given a
somewhat drier airmass in place by tomorrow. In fact the 00Z HREF
as well as 3km nam and 12Z HRRR do not show any potential for
convection tomorrow afternoon and this seems reasonable given very
little instability and less moisture.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
- Heat Departs After Saturday; Dry Weather Continues to Dominate
The last day for 90 degree (or near-90 degree) temperatures for the
foreseeable future will be Saturday. ECMWF guidance is indicating
18C-20C air at 850 mb overhead on Saturday. This will help ensure
another very warm to hot day on Saturday. In terms of cloud cover,
model RH is supporting a mix of some high clouds and also diurnal cu
generation along the lake breeze convergence. Thus, expect a mix of
clouds and sun for most locations. Isolated to widely scattered
showers may develop primarily near and west of U.S. 131 with a
chance for a thunderstorm or two as SBCAPE values are projected to
be around 1000 J/kg during the afternoon. None of this shower
activity will do anything to change the growing region of
abnormally dry conditions across our area. Only spotty, localized,
and temporary relief is expected.
A retrograding upper level high to our west and a deepening upper
low across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast will dominate the
pattern from Sunday through the end of the upcoming week. Michigan
will be between these systems with little hope for any rain given
low level easterly or northeasterly flow bringing low dewpoints and
dry conditions from the source region of interior Ontario. Looking
at June`s climatological wind rose data for Grand Rapids (a graphic
that shows over 40 years of observed wind speed and direction at
Grand Rapids), it is climatologically unusual to get a wind
direction dominated by some easterly component for this time of
year. The same is true at our other climatological sites. Outside of
our lakeshore region, inland sites have been experiencing wind with
an easterly component (NE/E/SE) since May 24. The extended
forecast calls for this to basically continue unabated for most
locations.
A fairly strong surface cold front is projected to move through on
Monday as upper troughing and upper low development occurs across
eastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures will
drop considerably behind this front and high temperatures will
retreat into the 70s to near 80 for much of next week. Ahead of and
along the front on Monday, a low risk for scattered showers exists,
but this front will also do nothing to provide meaningful rain given
dew points in the paltry upper 40s to around 50 ahead of it.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
Isolated showers and thunderstorms along an outflow-reinforced
lake breeze near KGRR will be diminishing by sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Winds will go
light and variable tonight then go east around 5 to 10 knots on
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
A high pressure ridge will continue to build in through Friday and
result in fairly minimal wind speeds and wave heights. As has been
the pattern all week the light gradient will be conducive to lake
breeze formation again Friday with winds near the beaches veering
to the nw and strengthening to around 10 to 15 kts by around
midday.
A consensus of latest wind speed data from the 3km nam and hrrr
runs suggests wind speeds will stay below sca criteria Friday. A
similar day is expected Saturday with fair wx and fairly minimal
winds and wave heights.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...Hoving
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Laurens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Inland ridging and weak coastal troughing continues through
late week and into the weekend. Reinforcing high pressure will
build early next week while low pressure forms well off the SE
US coast and moves away from ENC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 PM Thu...Very unusual CAD pattern for early summer
continues from the Mid-Atlantic to southeast US. A sharp trough
continues to linger offshore with weak waves of low pressure
migrating along it while inland, high pressure ridges south. The
moist cyclonic flow we`ve been trapped under for the past
couple days will persist through Fri. Despite the loss of
diurnal heating, isolated showers persist, especially vicinity
of the southern Outer Banks. Some of the high-res models like
the HRRR are forecasting the isolated showers to continue
overnight into Fri morning and have added a slight chance PoP
for the southern OBX where the greatest chance exists.
Guidance continues to strongly indicate widespread low stratus
and coastal fog overnight, especially for the northern Outer
Banks as low level moisture plume remains in place. Fog
coverage last night and this morning was generally not as severe
as the most reliable guidance (GFS LAMP) was suggesting, and
made appropriate adjustments keeping dense fog along/near the
northern coast where foggy conditions will occur cross the
Northern Outer Banks and the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula with
lows area wide in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 340 PM Thu...Little change in the pattern tomorrow as
upper low continues to meander off the coast. Warmer conditions
are expected tomorrow with dry air aloft mixing to the surface a
bit more quickly than tomorrow, allowing highs to climb into
the 80s inland once again. Some hi-res guidance suggests some
spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two developing
along the sea breeze mainly south of Highway 70, and this seems
probable considering PWATs here will remain at or above 1.5".
Carried a slight chance PoP here given the weak signal. Very
weak shear means no severe threat is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thu...Deep layer nerly flow will cont through the
weekend and translate to a lack of instability and thus slim to
no thunder chances. Reinforcing cooler pattern for the second
half of the weekend to early next week as the ern CONUS remains
under influence of upper troughing and lower than climo
hts/thicknesses.
Saturday through Sunday...The weekend has cont to trend drier
as broad sfc ridge extends down into ENC from the Mid
Atlantic/New England. Sat will be quite warm as more sunshine
should be realized along with higher hts ahead of reinforcing
nerly surge set to move through on Sat night/Sun. Highs Sat in
the mid 80s interior to 70s beaches. Sun will be much cooler
with aforementioned reinforcing cool surge and highs all areas
in the 70s. Sun night coolest of the period with lows well down
into the 50s, with some low 50s in the normally cooler locales.
Continued dry conditions through the weekend.
Monday through Wednesday...Low pressure should form off the SE
US coast early next week, though reinforcing sfc ridge from the
NE US will shunt this low well out to sea and thus mainly dry
cond will persist. Have included a silent 20% pop for Mon night
and again Tue night as several low amplitude shortwaves may
bring a passing shower to the region. Temps will moderate back
to near climo in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s this
period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 615 PM Thu...Current VFR conditions should deteriorate to
IFR after 3Z this evening as nocturnal inversion sets up and
low level moisture continues to spread across eastern NC in the
NE low level flow. Already seeing LIFR/IFR conditions across
northeast NC and the guidance is spreading these conditions
southwest overnight. Guidance hangs onto IFR conditions into Fri
afternoon and does not develop VFR conditions until late
afternoon. This may be overdone as deeper summer mixed layer
should develop and mix out the low level moisture but this CAD
surface pattern is anomalous for early summer which lowers
confidence in any guidance.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thu...Mostly dry conditions through the period as
sfc high pres noses down from New England. Gusting nerly winds
15-25 kt) expected on Sunday though rest of the period should
feature winds 10-15 kt or less.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 955 PM Thu...Coastal trough lingers offshore with weak
waves of low pressure migrating along the boundary while high
pressure ridges south inland. Northeast winds of 10-20 kt
persist across area waters with seas 4-5 ft north of Cape
Lookout and 2-4 ft south. These conditions are expected to
persist with little change in the surface pattern, although as
the surface trough weakens Fri, winds will probably be a couple
knots lower than today. Seas will also likely drop a foot or so
from current observations tomorrow.
Given the persistence forecast, marine fog - locally dense at
times - will occur again tonight especially for the waters
north of Cape Hatteras and adjacent sounds.
LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thu....Another round of gusty winds and building
seas by the weekend as low pres organizes well off the SE coast
and reinforcing cool northeasterly surge with building high to
the north occurs. SCA develops Sat evening and lasts through Sun
with winds of 20-25 kt and seas 6-9 ft. The low will remain
well out at sea, and thus minimal rain chances with this system.
Winds quickly diminish Sun night as transitory high pres builds
in.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 615 PM Thu...The combination of high astronomical tides
and a period of stronger northeast winds may produce minor to
moderate coastal flooding, ocean side north of Cape Hatteras and
soundside over the southern Pamlico Sound basin beginning
Friday night, and peaking Sat into Sunday when the strongest
winds are forecast to occur. Some ocean overwash will also be
possible, particularly on the oceanside Outer Banks.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-135-150-
152-154-230-231.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL/MS
MARINE...JME/TL/MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1055 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak wave of low pressure may bring isolated showers this afternoon
into tonight across NC, but most will stay dry. Temperatures turn
warmer each day into Saturday, but a backdoor cold front should
arrive during late Saturday into Sunday with another chance of rain
with cooler temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1055 PM EDT Thursday...
Minor changes for overnight forecast...
Made minor adjustments to the temperatures and cloud cover based
on the latest satellite and observation trends. Isolated showers
have dissipated. No precipitation is expected for the rest of
the night.
730 PM discussion...
Expecting this cloud cover to decrease through the night,
allowing for good radiational cooling. Have adjusted low
temperatures tonight down a degree or two to account for this.
Some patchy river valley fog may develop tomorrow morning over
the Greenbrier and New River. So far, only a few light showers
have been observed outside of the area, in east- central NC and
far western NC, but moving southwestward and farther away from
the area. Any shower activity will likely diminish by sunset.
Overall, no changes made for this evening`s update, forecast
remains on track.
Previous discussion below...
As of 137 PM EDT Thursday...
High pressure over the Northeast will control our weather
tonight into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure off in the atlantic
ocean will weaken and fill. The HRRR, RAP and HiRESW-ARW
support the mention of an isolated shower or storm this
afternoon into this evening mainly in the east. Any convection
will fade by sunset with the loss of solar heating. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s in the deeper
valleys of the mountains to around 60 degrees in the Piedmont
where clouds may linger. The high center will keep Friday on the
dry side with warmer than normal temperatures. Highs will warm
the mid 70s in the mountains to the mid and upper 80s in the
Piedmont.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 137 PM EDT Thursday...
Confidence is increasing for showers and thunderstorms from a
backdoor cold front during late Saturday.
A large upper level ridge over the central Plains will block any
weather features arriving from the west throughout the weekend.
However, the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast should reside in a
persistent troughing pattern. A deep upper level low will dive
southwestward from eastern Canada during Friday night into Saturday.
While conditions should remain quiet on Friday night, showers and
thunderstorms will develop along a backdoor cold front associated
with this upper level low by Saturday. This convection could reach
central Virginia during the afternoon and spread southwestward to
reach northwest North Carolina, southeast West Virginia, and
southwest Virginia towards Saturday evening.
Due to compressional warming, temperatures should soar into the 80s
for most locations ahead of this approaching frontal boundary on
Saturday. However, this added warmth will fuel unstable conditions
with CAPE climbing up to 1,500 J/kg. Model soundings indicate a
potential gusty wind threat with any storms that become strong if
they arrive quickly enough before the loss of daytime heating. Any
convective activity should taper to showers by early Sunday morning.
Temperatures will turn notably cooler for the remainder of the
weekend, especially east of the Blue Ridge. The cold front should
stall across North Carolina on Sunday before moving eastward towards
the coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop
again on Sunday afternoon, but coverage of any convection should be
notably less compared to Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 PM EDT Thursday...
Confidence is moderate for daily chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms during early next week.
With a large upper level ridge across the central Plains stretching
northwards into Canada that will block anything arriving from the
west, the Mid Atlantic will continue to have a deep upper level low
influencing the weather pattern through early next week as it spins
over the New England states. Several shortwave troughs spiraling
around the upper level low will swing over the Appalachian Mountains
to promote lift and instability to spark daily chances of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms for Monday through Wednesday. The upper
level low may begin to depart eastward by Wednesday night into
Thursday, which will allow drier air from the west to arrive.
Temperatures will continue to hover near normal values for early
June, so no considerable heat is forthcoming until the upper level
low completely exits later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions are observed across the area, with some mid and
high clouds over the Foothills and Piedmont, moving generally
southwestward. This cloud cover is expected to decrease
overnight, allowing for good radiational cooling due to clearer
skies. This will increase the potential for river and mountain
valley fog, so therefore have included patchy fog in the TAFs
for KLWB and KBCB for a few hours Friday morning. Any fog that
does develop will likely diminish not long after sunrise,
around 14Z, once daytime mixing kicks in.
Not expecting much shower activity impacting any area terminals
for the remainder of the evening, as much of the few light
showers that are occuring are outside of the area in east-
central NC. Friday, VFR conditions will continue areawide.
Winds will be mostly northeasterly through Friday, between 5 to
10 knots.
Forecast confidence is high, but moderate regarding fog
development.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Mainly VFR conditions should hold into early Saturday. A
backdoor cold front will approach late Saturday into Sunday to
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with possible
sub- VFR conditions. The chance of rain could linger into
Monday. Afternoon MVFR showers and storms are possible on
Tuesday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/AS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1206 PM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Shower and storm chances return this afternoon,
primarily to areas northwest of Interstate-15 as temperatures across
the region remain below normal. Tomorrow, things warm up slightly as
precipitation chances focus in Lincoln County. Drier and warmer this
weekend before rain chances return next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today and Friday.
Latest radar and satellite imagery shows showers and storms
beginning to develop in southwest Utah and the southeastern Great
Basin. This scattered activity is expected to continue and spread
west through the afternoon.
This morning`s sounding had a PWAT value of 0.57", which is right at
the 75th percentile of the sounding climatology for the date.
Anomalous moisture along with a combination of terrain and larger-
scale forcing from a shortwave along the CA-OR border will fire
scattered showers and storms across our northern locations this
afternoon. 12z HREF ensemble mean highlights roughly 100-300 J/kg of
CAPE across areas northwest of I-15, particularly Esmeralda County.
Ensemble max places a few 750-1000 J/kg contours in these areas. RAP
forecast DCAPE values range between 700-1000 J/kg during the
afternoon hours. Given the parameter space, gusty outflow winds and
lightning will be the main concerns. However, cannot completely rule
out isolated flash flooding in sensitive locations. Storm potential
should fade with the setting sun, but shower activity may linger
through midnight across the Southern Great Basin based on recent
CAMs. For the rest of the area, southerly breezes continue with
temperatures remaining below normal for this time of year.
On Friday, precipitation chances shift east and become focused in
Lincoln County, with PoPs between 20-50%. Otherwise, similar
conditions to today. South breezes 10-20 mph with temperatures
slightly warmer.
.LONG TERM...This weekend and early next week.
As we head into the weekend, shortwave ridging tries to develop
across the southwestern US. This causes most of the area to dry out,
with just 10-20% precip chances lingering on the Sierra Crest and
our northeastern locations. Height rises also result in warming
temperatures through the weekend, with highs reaching above normal
values on Sunday. Will Las Vegas see its first 100 of the year?
Based on the latest NBM, Las Vegas only has an 8% chance of reaching
100, so we`ll likely be keeping our streak of 265 consecutive days
below 100 alive. Especially since ensemble guidance develops another
area of low pressure off the SoCal Coast on Monday. This will once
again spur afternoon shower/storm chances, primarily across our
northern locations. Models slowly bring the low inland during the
first half of the work week, keeping PoPs around and temperature
below normal. Could also see breezy conditions with this system, but
the precipitation chances and cooler temperatures should be the most
notable features.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Moderate south to southwest winds with
occasional gusts are expected into the early evening hours before
decreasing and returning to a more southerly direction overnight.
Isolated convection is expected again this afternoon, except most
storms should remain over the higher terrain north and northwest of
the Vegas Valley, and the chance of outflow winds reaching the field
is less than what was seen yesterday. Similar conditions are
forecast for Friday.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South to southwest winds, which will be gusty at times,
will prevail across the region into this evening before decreasing
overnight. Scattered areas of convection are expected once again
this afternoon and evening, mainly across Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, and
Lincoln Counties. The main threat from these storms will be gusty,
erratic winds and lower ceilings obscuring higher terrain. Similar
conditions are expected Friday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Planz
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