Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/30/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1019 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, dry and mostly sunny weather expected through the week
thanks to high pressure over the region. Warmest temperatures of
the year are expected Friday. A moisture-starved front will
pass through by the end of the week, which may bring a few
showers or possibly a thunderstorm to the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM Update...
Minor changes were made to blend in current observations with
forecasted temperatures. Sky cover was also updated to account
for previous pop up cumulus clearing out after sunset.
Remaining forecast is still on track.
630 PM Update...
Made slight changes to temperatures with current observations
being a degree or two warmer than originally forecasted. Also
updated sky cover to include pop up cumulus clouds over the
southern tier and the eastern Catskills. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.
330 PM Update...
Tonight, a high pressure center developing over Nova Scotia will
bring a wind shift and advect in Canadian air from the east.
This backdoor cool front will drop temps the greatest east of
I-81 tonight, falling into the mid to upper 40s. West of I-81,
low to mid 50s are expected. This Canadian airmass will continue
to influence the weather on Tuesday, allowing for cooler
temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Syracuse
will be the hot spot as SSE winds downslope into the Mohawk
Valley, causing extra warming that the models didn`t pick up
on. Temps here were bumped a couple degrees above guidance.
This Canadian airmass will also bring some smokey conditions to
the region as smoke from wildfires in Nova Scotia will be
pushed into the area Tuesday afternoon into the evening. HRRR
near-surface smoke guidance backs this up with a nice plume of
smoke moving in from the east. This smoke advection is expected
to be short lived as winds over Nova Scotia and the waters off
New England become southerly on Tuesday afternoon, effectively
cutting off the smoke advection by Tuesday evening. Hazy and
patchy smokey conditions should stick around until it dissipates
sometime Wednesday morning. Temps Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning will be similar to Monday night, with mid to upper 40s
east of I-81 and low to mid 50s west of I-81.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will still be in place across the region Wednesday and
Thursday. Persistence forecast methods used here going on the
warmer side of model guidance and cooler end of model guidance
with lows given the dry pattern. Highs both days should get well
into the 80`s with a few spots around 90 Thursday, no added
heat index due to low relative humidity. Lows will have quite
the drop off into the 50`s both Wednesday and Thursday nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold frontal boundary is still projected to move into the
region late Friday then become a backdoor front on Saturday moving
from east to west across the region. Moisture looks very limited but
enough lift coupled with weak instability may be enough for a few
pop up afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks like the
hottest day with more spots reaching 90, no added heat index given
low relative humidity. The cold front drops temperatures several
degrees Saturday. More seasonable after the frontal passage in terms
of temperatures with lows in the 40`s and 50`s with highs from the
upper 70`s to mid 80`s. Some ensemble members are showing a second
frontal passage early next week, so that will be another
opportunity for a few pop up showers and thunderstorms.
The longest stretch of no precipitation at our climate sites are all
over 2 weeks, still a long ways to go to consider that.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure over the region will continue to bring VFR
conditions to all terminals through the forecast period.
A wind shift to SSE later this evening will bring some periodic
gusts up to 14kts tonight with sustained winds between 4-8kts.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night...Smoke aloft from wildfires in the Canadian
Maritimes may advect into the area Tuesday night, but impacts
to surface visibility are expected to be limited, though
confidence is low.
Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MJM
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
927 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
The convection is winding down, with about 15% coverage left over
the eastern half of the plains at this time. Minor changes to the
sky, wind and pop grids with update. The changes are based on
reality.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, RAP model shows
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg over northeast Weld County eastward to
Phillips and Sedgwick counties. Dew points here are in the lower
to mid 50s. Strong to severe storms will be possible here.
Elsewhere, weaker isolated to scattered convection will be
possible through mid evening.
It will be another warm day Tuesday with highs in the lower to
mid 80s across northeast Colorado. There will be an increase in
moisture Tuesday. MLCAPE reaches 1000-2000 J/kg where the best
moisture resides. Some uncertainty how far west the best moisture
makes it. The GFS/ECMWF keeps it over far northeast Colorado,
while the NAM and RAP has the best moisture west to I-25. Expect
scattered storms to form during the afternoon over the higher
terrain and I-25 Corridor. Storms will likely increase in coverage
and intensity as they spread eastward where better moisture and
instability reside.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Blocking pattern in place over North America, ridging to our east
and a closed low stalled to our west. The low will advance slowly
to the Desert Southwest over the next few days, and there will be
falling pressure heights and increasing southwesterly to
southerly flow aloft over Colorado. There should be a gradual and
consistent cooling trend through the week with near normal to
slightly cool temperatures, highs are forecast to fall back to the
upper 60s across the plains and 30s to 60s across the high
country by the weekend. Expect convection to develop each
afternoon over the mountains and move out over the plains, persist
into the evening. We will be somewhat limited of moisture early
in the period, at least compared to this season so far, then
Wednesday and Thursday there looks to be a significant increase in
moisture, precipitable water back up to 150 to 200 percent of
normal across most of northeast Colorado by late Wednesday and
early Thursday.
Each following afternoon and evening through the end of the
period, models have widespread coverage of showers and storms. By
the weekend, models have broad troughing over the west CONUS, good
moisture and often a weak flow aloft over Colorado. Heavy
rainfall is possible every day in the period, and there may soon
again be an increased threat of flooding across the area. There
will certainly be severe storms embedded but due to the lack of
shear there is overall a low severe threat. The best chance of
severe storm impacts will be Wednesday, when possibly around 2000
J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE could be coincident with 30 to 50 knots
of bulk shear in the late afternoon and evening. After that, there
looks to be a general lack of instability and widespread threat
of heavy rainfall will far outweigh isolated, marginally severe
storms.
Ensemble forecast systems suggest fairly high confidence in the
fundamental pattern and "big picture" of the forecast, and I think
that makes sense in this synoptic situation while it can also be
more difficult to predict finer details such as timing. Models
have been very reliable recently and consistent, and no major
changes were made to the long-term in this package. I did limit
PoP past Day 4 a bit, but some quick internal assessment has shown
that we may have a slightly dry bias in long-term PoP recently.
Given the extended abnormally wet pattern that we have enjoyed
this is understandable, so I didn`t restrain long-term PoP as much
as I generally do. Also, the question of timing is much less a
challenge in summer, as convection is usually primarily diurnal
forced.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 927 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Models have weak winds at DIA overnight. I went with drainage
patterns by 07Z. Ceiling issues are not expected overnight.
Scattered late day convection can be expected once again at DIA
on Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Threat for heavy rain over the burn areas will be very low through
the rest of today. On Tuesday, another round of afternoon and
evening showers and storms are expected. Best moisture will reside
over the plains, so the storms over the higher terrain will be
weaker and keep the flash flood threat low over the burn areas.
The coverage and intensity of showers looks to gradually but
consistently increase through the upcoming week and weekend, and
impacts due to heavy rainfall seem possible for many areas. There
is at least a limited threat of burn area flash flooding and
elevated threats seem likely burn the end of the week.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM....EJD
AVIATION.....RJK
HYDROLOGY....Meier/EJD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
937 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Another seasonably chilly night will round out the holiday
weekend as lows dive into the upper 30s and 40s outside of urban
centers. Low level smoke from uncontrolled fires in Nova Scotia
will advect from the E/SE tomorrow, potential impacting
visibility and will certainly haze up otherwise sunny skies. A
significant warmup towards summerlike temperatures with low
humidity levels remains on tap for mid to late in the workweek.
Potential continues for 90 degree temperatures away from the
coastlines Thursday into Friday. A cold front brings the next
chance for showers with a few thunderstorms Friday night into
early Saturday, although soaking rains are not likely. While dry
weather returns for next weekend, temperatures to trend cooler
than normal with cooler onshore flow.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
935 pm update...
High pres in control tonight with clear skies and light winds.
Excellent radiational cooling will result in lows in the low/mid
40s, with some upper 30s in the favorable radiators in interior
eastern MA and western MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
High pressure overhead again tomorrow will yield another day of
"sunny" conditions. Sunny, in quotes, due to wildfire smoke
advecting from Nova Scotia on ESE flow. Per HRRR and RAP smoke
guidance, this will be our first bout of near surface smoke of the
Summer, given the smoke is advecting from a much closer area than
the western Canadian wildfires that brought hazy skies to
southern New England for a good portion of the last month. Smoke
should begin to impact the region around 13Z, first across the
Cape, Islands, and South Coast, before advecting north and west
through 20Z. Near surface smoke values, between the surface and
~26ft off the ground, of up to 60-100 ug/m^3 indicate that this
smoke may be capable of not only "hazing" up the skies, but
reducing visibilities to as low as 5 or 6sm. Subsidence beneath
the high will also likely enhance smoke entrapment at the
surface. Fortunately, ESE flow becomes more SE by the late
morning and early afternoon hours, which will push the band of
smoke to our north and west, across northern New England and New
York. Thus, many areas should see a three to five hour period
of more impactful smoke before conditions improve. In addition
to reduced vsbys, those with a sensitive nose may be able to
smell smoke. Any decisions on Air Quality Alerts tomorrow will
be done so with input from our state partners.
Temperatures will be seasonable again tomorrow, but a few degrees
will be tacked on to Monday`s highs across the eastern half of the
CWA given winds lighten and shift to the SE. Overall, looking
at widespread 70s, with 60s along the coast; warmest temps again
expected in the CT River Valley and along the Rte 2 Corridor.
Tuesday Night...
Smoke moves north of the region by 00Z, but could provide a backdrop
for a nice sunset as it will still be visible on the northern
horizon. S/SE winds will once again go near calm overnight, but the
radiative potential won`t be as great as Monday night given
higher dewpoints and an increased presence of mid to high cloud
cover that likely skirts the south coast. With that said, still
a seasonably cool evening with lows primarily in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Warm and dry weather with potential for 90-degree temps Thurs and
Fri. Low humidity levels.
* Sct showers/storms Fri night into early Sat associated with a
southward-sagging cold front. Significant/soaking rains are not
anticipated.
* Cooldown toward seasonal or slightly below normal temps for next
weekend.
Details...
The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged through Thursday with
a west coast trough and east coast ridge. This means plenty of warm
(even hot??) and dry weather with subsidence beneath high pressure
each day. Bufkit soundings indicate boundary layer mixing up to
around 850 mb each day where temperatures will be around +13C on
Wednesday and +16C on Thursday. Under such a warm airmass with dry
antecedent conditions temperatures may very well over achieve the
guidance each day. For now thinking is that Wednesday high
temperatures in the interior will reach into the low 80s with
60s/70s closer to the coasts. Thursday and Friday will be the
hottest days of the week, up into the upper 80s/low 90s in the
interior. Fortunately, humidity will stay in check with dewpoints
generally in the 50s.
By late in the day on Friday the pattern breaks down bringing
us our only real chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms
as a mid level shortwave swings down from Canada with a cold
front at the surface. At this point the cold front looks to
cross through southern New England overnight Friday/early
Saturday. Thus, is would not be able to take advantage of the
greatest amount of instability (in the afternoon) if this is the
case. Even so, while northern New England looks to be the most
likely to see stronger storms Friday, can`t rule out some
rumbles of thunder ourselves depending on the eventual timing.
Regardless, the post frontal airmass on Saturday will be much
cooler and breezy. Under northeast flow highs won`t make it out
of the 60s across eastern/central MA and RI. In the CT valley,
further removed from the cool ocean and benefiting from
downslope flow highs will reach the mid 70s. Beyond that there
is a good deal of uncertainty as to how the pattern evolves but
for now sticking with a generally dry forecast with moderating
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR. Diminishing ENE winds becoming light/calm.
Tuesday...High Confidence, except moderate confidence in impact
of smoke
VFR, isolated periods of MVFR due vsby reductions possible. Vsby
reductions will be caused by wildfire smoke blowing in from Nova
Scotia. Not anticipating a huge vsby impact but reduced values
to 5 or 6SM are possible, primarily between 13-20Z. Smoke will
clear out from SE to NW through the day. SE winds much lighter, 5
to 15 knots.
Tuesday Night... High Confidence
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF, except moderate impacts
in effects of smoke.
E/ENE winds diminish significantly through
sunset, going near calm overnight. S/SE winds build to 5-10 kt
Tomorrow, isolated gusts to 15kt. VFR, except in areas of patchy
smoke that may drive vsbys down to 5/6SM. Smoke anticipated to
affect the terminal between 13-17Z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
VFR, except in areas of patchy wildfire smoke between 15-19Z
Tuesday. E/NE winds today diminish to near calm overnight,
building back from the SE tomorrow, 5-10kt.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
19Z Update...
Tonight and Tuesday...High Confidence.
Lingering Small craft headlines will dissipate by late evening as
high pressure drops south and allows the pressure gradient to
weaken. High pressure should shift E of the waters Tuesday allowing
ESE winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves
diminishing to 2-4 ft tomorrow.
Tuesday Night... High Confidence.
Winds fall from ~15kt to around 5 kt for most of the waters
overnight, with the exception of the far northeast waters where
gusts will maintain strength between 10-15kt. Waves generally
1-3ft.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KS
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/KS
MARINE...BW/KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1015 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Our period of dry weather will continue through Thursday before a
backdoor cold front has the potential to bring some showers and
possibly a thunderstorm or two late Friday into Saturday. In
the meantime, above normal temperatures are expected through the
week with the warmest temperatures expected on Thursday when
highs are expected to climb near or above 90 degrees.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1012 PM EDT Monday...High pressure across the region has
lead to a quiet night with clear skies and light winds. No
changes were made to the forecast with this update.
Previous Discussion...It`s been a very pleasant Memorial Day
across the North Country with high pressure firmly in control of
our weather. We have seen some stronger wind gusts in the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys as northerly winds funnel
down the deeper valleys. These winds are expected to diminish
this evening as the high pressure shifts off to the east. Winds
are expected to go light and variable overnight before switching
to the south after midnight as the high pressure shifts east.
This will bring warmer temperatures back to the region on
Tuesday as we begin to advect warmer subtropical air northward.
There could still be some patchy frost near the Connecticut
River tonight as good radiational cooling is expected. However,
increasing winds of 5 to 8 mph after midnight will likely
prevent widespread frost with frost likely limited to sheltered
valleys.
One thing to note for Tuesday night into Wednesday is the potential
for smoke near the surface. The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP
indicate 10 to 30 micrograms per cubic meter of smoke particulates
during this timeframe. There are two fires ongoing in Nova Scotia
presently with the smoke drifting across the western Atlantic. As the
aforementioned high shifts eastward, we will see the return flow
that is ushering in warmer temperatures also usher in this smoke.
Once the inversion gets stronger during the evening/overnight hours,
the smoke is expected to spread out and move through the Champlain
Valleys and much of Vermont. We will be keeping an eye on this
closely should any air quality issues arise from surface smoke.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 PM EDT Monday...Strong ridging continues across the
forecast area midweek, providing near cloudless skies and
light/variable winds. One sky feature that could be seen would be
some patchy smoke lingering in the morning hours, providing an
orange-y sunrise. It could even be low enough to smell, but we`re
not expecting visibility reductions. No precipitation is expected
throughout the entire short term period, and 925mb temperatures will
peak around 22-24 C. This will allow highs Wednesday to rise into
the mid- to upper 80s F, about 10-15 degrees above average, ending
May on a hot note.
Though this is not expected to be the hottest day of the week,
there`s a 51% chance of Saranac Lake reaching or exceeding record
values, and 46% for Montpelier. The past few days have been
extremely dry, allowing for observed temps to outdo our forecasts,
so it`s not out of the question for heat to exceed what is forecast
but have blended in some bias corrected data to the forecast to
ensure the forecast is warm enough. Wednesday night will also be
mild, temps only falling into the 50s for most, about 5-10 degrees
above average. Some of the colder hollows could fall a bit lower, in
the upper 40s, due to clear skies and calm winds allowing for
radiational cooling, but this should be an isolated occurrence.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 252 PM EDT Monday...Records under threat Thursday as deep
ridging, clear skies, and light winds persist into the next month
with 925mb temperatures around 23-25 C. Expecting highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s F, bringing temperatures to 15-20 degrees above
normal for early June, quite warm and crispy. Models are indicating
Champlain Valley temperatures will be solidly around 90 F at peak
heating, which would mean likely tying or even breaking the record
from 2013 of 90 F at the Burlington International Airport and
challenging the same for the Plattsburgh International Airport.
Burlington has 96% chance of being 91+ F, while Plattsburgh has 66%
chance of the same. Rutland, Massena, Montpelier, Morrisville,
Springfield, Saranac Lake, and several others also have reachable
records in the 80s and 90s.
A pattern change will then be on our doorstep in the form of a
backdoor "cool" front on Friday, resulting in upper 80s Friday, and
finally upper 70s to lower 80s by Saturday. The front could also
provide a few scattered showers/thunderstorms along a thin stripe of
increased moisture, but forcing is weak and instability drops off
quickly. No more than 20-30% PoPs for Friday/Friday evening with
best chances in northern Vermont/the Northeast Kingdom. If we won`t
get much from this string of precip, we could be looking at
increased drought and fire weather concerns. At the end of the
weekend/early next week, ridging/high pressure begins to build in
again, keeping highs above-average in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Another trough or cold front could swing through early next week as
well, bringing more slight chances of precip around Monday, 20-40%
PoPs at most. Models are not in great agreement about the timing of
this feature, so there`s still plenty up in the air.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z
Wednesday...VFR conditions continue to persist at all terminals
as skies remain clear, outside a few passing high clouds and
occasional smoke. Gusty northerly winds from this afternoon
have diminished, with winds more light and variable for the rest
of the evening. Winds will shift to the south overnight/early
morning but will generally be 10kts or less, with the exception
of some possible gusts at KBTV between 12Z and 18Z. Overall,
more quiet and fairly non-impactful weather is expected for the
forecast period.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
910 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move south of the area Tuesday into
Thursday. A cold front will move through the area on Friday with
high pressure returning for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:10 PM Update: A clear sky expected the remainder of the night
with nothing more than wisps of cirrus at times, but not enough
to have an impact on temperatures. The smoke aloft has now
pushed off the Downeast coast, and still expecting smoke to move
in along the Downeast coast sometime Tuesday afternoon from a
large forest fire in southern Nova Scotia. Made a few tweaks to
the temperatures for the remainder of the night, but overall
the forecast remains in fins shape.
Previous discussion:
Clear skies, with just a thin layer of smoke, over the CWA this
afternoon has allowed temps to rise into the 60s. Sea breeze
has kicked in along the coast with sse wind bringing in cooler
temps and higher dewpts to the immediate coast.
Skies will remain clear overnight as high pressure sinks south of
the area. Winds go calm over most locations early tonight before
veering to the southwest after midnight. Vort max over central
Quebec wl dive south tonight, possibly spreading high clouds into
the north late tonight. This likely to have very little impact on
temps.
Sunny skies expected on Tuesday with southwest winds pushing
highs into the lwr 80s across the north and west. Sea breeze
will keep immediate coast cooler, in the mid 50s to lwr 60s.
HRRR and RAP guidance is showing near surface smoke from the
southwest Nova Scotia wildfire which is currently over 15,000
acres and still burning out of control as of 19z Monday. This
will be spreading over the Gulf of Maine in the morning before
getting caught up in the sea breeze/southwest flow near the
surface. Have begun to add in areas of smoke to Penobscot Bay by
21z in the afternoon and gradually moving north and east from
there thru late afternoon. Have kept vsbys at 6 miles until we
get closer in to "smoke time."
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tue night expect an area of smoke to push north through the
Central Highlands perhaps as far north as eastern Aroostook.
This smoke has originated from wildfires in Nova Scotia and
there remains decent agreement between the HRRR & RAP Near-
Surface Smoke models. This will likely be high enough
concentration to make the sky hazy and perhaps smell it through
midnight. The Rex Block will begin to weaken but 500mb ridging
remains over the area for Wednesday. Expecting westerly winds
across the north 1/2 of the CWA and southwest in southern half
of the CWA. Expecting low to mid 80s across the north with upper
80s in the St. John Valley and areas east of Route 11. Mid to
upper 80s across the I-95 corridor from Baxter Region down into
the Dover-Foxcroft areas. Upper 70s to low 80s for Interior
Downeast and across the Moosehead region with influence of
colder bodies of water. SW wind will be a sea breeze at the
Downeast coast along and south of Route 1 with highs only in the
60s to low 70s.
Strong warm air advection with the warmest surge of "heat"
pushes into the area Wed night into Thursday. AM lows across the
north in the upper 50s to low 60s might break record warm lows
for CAR & FVE (see climate section below for more details).
Otherwise with the southwesterly dry wind component expecting
lows in the 50s elsewhere. Another dry and sunny day expected on
Thursday with modeled soundings in good agreement on +24C 925mb
temps and +16C 850mb temps. Modeled soundings have good mixing
up to 700mb so with dry low levels opted to blend a mixed
temperature with 50th percentile from NBM. 50th percentile was a
few degrees warmer than NBM so opted to raise highs on Thursday
another 1-2 degrees across the area from previous forecasts.
Looking at solid 88-93F across the area away from the coast,
going 91F at BGR, 91F at CAR and 91F at HUL along with 92F at
MLT. Expecting another dry day with RHs in the 25-35% range with
winds generally 5-15mph. Although green up has occurred, low
RHs + winds + heat which means fire weather concerns need to be
monitored. Late day expect a cold front to approach from the
north with increasing clouds mainly across the Crown and slight
chance POPs by sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday night into Friday features a ton of timing
uncertainties with the arrival of a N>S pushing cold front. We
are probably going to see slight chance to chance POPs in the
form of showers Thu night, cannot rule out no POPs overnight and
then showers increase again on Friday. For now opted to ramp up
POPs in alignment with NBM for Friday. On Friday, there is a ton
of uncertainty on the amount of daytime heating and upper level
energy along the front. For now, it appears 1000-1500j/kg of
CAPE is likely to develop with temps climbing into the 70s and
some 80s. Modeled soundings based on the global runs suggest any
strong convection could pose a gusty wind and hail threat but
for now not confident in elevated wording. Mid-level lapse rates
are poor with strong low-level lapse rates and inverted "v"
signatures. The other concern may be for heavy rain with
stronger convection with slow moving storms (corfidi <10kt) and
PWATs increasing 1.25-1.5" so another details that has to be
fine tuned. Best chance of any potential stronger storms would
be around the Central Highlands and Interior Downeast including
the Bangor area.
The weekend looks to feature a northwest flow Canadian high
pressure returning to Maine with an upper level potentially
cutting off along the Mid Atlantic states. Latest operational
runs suggest potentially another Rex Block over the eastern US
or potentially extended troughing lasting into early week. For
now opted to take the blend of temperatures returning to 40s at
night and 60s-70s during the day with POP chances increasing
into early week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Winds will become calm tonight
before becoming swrly twd daybreak and increase to 5 to 10
knots on Tue PM. Smoke will likely move into KBHB by late in the
day Tue, possibly producing MVFR visibility by 00Z, but for now
have just introduced smoke, but kept the visibility at VFR
levels.
SHORT TERM: Wed...VFR. W-SW 5-15kts.
Thu...VFR. W 5-15kts.
Fri...VFR. Brief MVFR with chance of showers & t-storms. W-NW
winds 5-15kts shifting NE 10-15kts.
Sat...VFR. NE winds 10-20kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through the
day on Tuesday. Visibilities may be reduced over the waters in
smoke from Nova Scotia wildfires late in the afternoon,
especially over the eastern waters.
SHORT TERM: Smoke from Nova Scotian wildfires may reduce vsby
on eastern waters Tue eve. Winds/waves below SCA through late
week. Seas generally 1-3ft and wind gusts may approach 20-25kt
Wed & Thu PM for a few hours. Fri night into Sat NE winds will
gust 25-30kts and SCA conditions may be possible for 12-18hrs.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Wednesday, May 31st temps will rival record highs:
FVE Fcst: 86 Record: 88 (2018)
CAR Fcst: 88 Record: 87 (2018)
HUL Fcst: 87 Record: 88 (2013)
MLT Fcst: 87 Record: 95 (1937)
BGR Fcst: 84 Record: 93 (1937)
Thursday, Jun 1st will also feature highs challenging records:
FVE Fcst: 89 Record: 83 (2011)
CAR Fcst: 91 Record: 87 (1995)
HUL Fcst: 91 Record: 88 (1995)
MLT Fcst: 92 Record: 92 (1937)
BGR Fcst: 91 Record: 96 (1937)
Record high low temperatures are also possible Thursday, Jun 1st.
FVE Fcst: 61 Record: 63 (2018)
CAR Fcst: 60 Record: 62 (1999)
HUL Fcst: 56 Record: 62 (1972)
MLT Fcst: 56 Record: 63 (1937)
BGR Fcst: 52 Record: 66 (1987)
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/Buster
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...CB/Buster/Sinko
Marine...CB/Buster/Sinko
Climate...Sinko
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Evident in GOES water vapor imagery, a weak
area of shortwave troughing is crossing much of the Southern Plains
early this afternoon. Latest RAP analyses place the axis of the mid-
level troughing along a line extending northeast to southwest from
approximately Frederick, OK to Abilene to Del Rio. Convective
initiation is in progress along and immediately ahead of the
advancing height falls, with deepening cumulus and radar echoes
evident from San Saba County southwest into northern Kerr County.
The current concentration of storms over this relatively small
portion of South-Central Texas may be linked to the remains of an
MCV that moved into the vicinity earlier this morning. Additional
shower and thunderstorm development will materialize through the
remainder of the afternoon hours. Activity will be favored over
central portions of the area, where proximity to the slowly-
advancing mid-level height falls will be greatest. Brief downpours
and locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern in these storms,
although an isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorm with
hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out. Storms will dissipate by
the mid evening hours tonight. While an isolated shower/storm can`t
be ruled out along and east of US 77 tomorrow afternoon, the
majority of South-Central Texas should remain dry beyond this
evening.
Rest Of Today: Expect showers and storms to continue to develop over
Hill Country through the next couple hours. Scattered activity
should progress east-southeast into portions of the I-35 Corridor
and Coastal Plains through early evening, when storms should rapidly
weaken as the boundary layer stabilizes. The main concern in any
showers and storms will be locally heavy rainfall, minor flooding
impacts, and cloud to ground lightning. While secondary to the
aforementioned hazards, an isolated strong storm containing large
hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out, especially over the Coastal
Plains where bulk shear values are slightly higher. The Storm
Prediction Center has introduced a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk
for severe thunderstorms in its latest day one outlook in light of
this small potential. The Weather Prediction Center continues to
carry a slight (level 2 out of 4) risk for excessive rainfall across
the Coastal Plains, with a marginal (level 1 out of 4) risk in place
across the rest of the region. Being Memorial Day afternoon, we
caution those with outdoor plans to remain vigilant to changing
weather conditions. Should a storm approach your area, seek safe
shelter indoors until the storm passes. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to a storm to be struck by lightning. Those
planning to hit the roads are reminded to never attempt to drive
through flooded roadways and low water crossings.
Tuesday: Expect high temperatures near or slightly above normal.
Readings should range from the mid to upper 80s across the east to
the lower 90s along the Rio Grande. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out over the far east during
the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall and severe weather are not
expected at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
The beginning of the long-term forecast on Wednesday will begin dry
as short-wave ridging moves into the area and remains in place
through Thursday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday should top out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees. Winds will remain out of the southeast with speeds
generally 8-15 mph with slightly higher speeds on Thursday expected.
The upper pattern will begin to shift by Thursday night as the sub-
tropical jet begins to work back into the region. This should bring
several disturbances back into the area beginning over the weekend.
This will reintroduce PoPs back into the forecast with the weak lift
in place beginning Friday in the Hill Country before spreading to
the rest of the area on Saturday. As of now, Sunday has the higher
chances of rain in the extended, but there are many model runs to go
ahead of the upcoming weekend. Temperatures throughout the remainder
of the long-term will remain near 90 for highs with lows in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Showers and thunderstorms currently in the San Antonio vicinity will
push SE and diminish over the next couple of hours. In the meantime,
variable gusts to around 25 kts and locally heavy rainfall is
expected. VFR conditions will prevail overnight, but SCT to BKN MVFR
cigs are expected to develop across the region around 12Z tomorrow
morning. The greatest confidence is at DRT, SAT, and SSF in cigs
developing, but can not rule it out at AUS either. Minor reductions
in vsbys will be possible as well due to BR. Skies should become
mostly clear by the early afternoon hours tomorrow. Outside of
thunderstorms this evening, winds should be either calm or light out
of the SE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 67 89 68 90 / 20 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 88 65 89 / 20 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 88 67 88 / 30 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 64 87 66 88 / 20 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 70 92 71 92 / 10 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 65 88 65 89 / 20 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 65 88 67 88 / 20 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 64 88 65 88 / 20 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 87 66 88 / 20 20 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 66 88 68 88 / 30 10 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 67 89 69 89 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Quigley
Long-Term...29
Aviation...Gale
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
736 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
...Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Key Messages:
* Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible for
mainly the western half of the forecast area each of the next
two evenings.
* Off and on shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the
week, though weak, summer-like mid to upper level flow limits
the day-to-day predictability.
* A potentially stronger upper disturbance could bring better/more
organized chances for thunderstorms late this week and into the
weekend.
* Temperatures will be warm in the 80s to low 90s through midweek,
then fall back a few degrees late in the forecast.
Forecast Details:
The weather so far today has been perfect for the "unofficial
beginning" of summer with widespread sunshine and warm
temperatures in the 80s. Srly breeze has also been pleasant - not
as strong as past few days. Quiet conditions should persist for
several more hours.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are currently developing over
the Sandhills along a somewhat broad/diffuse confluence zone
and/or weak sfc trough, and this activity is forecast by most CAMs
to gradually incr in coverage and move E/SE this eve. Ample low
level moisture (sfc Tds in the 60s) beneath steep mid level lapse
rates are yielding CAPE values more than enough for severe
convection - MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg. The missing ingredient is
once again deep layer wind shear. Latest SPC mesoanalysis puts
effective shear at only about 25kt, and it appears that any
support for higher shear (belt of 30kt flow at H7 per 18Z RAP and
regional VWPs) will remain primarily W of the CWA. H85-H3 mean
wind and Corfidi vectors are pretty weak, only about 15-20kt...so
storms that do form off to the W will probably be pretty slow to
shift E. After collaboration with SPC, decided to hold off on a
severe convective watch for our CWA with the expectation that
storms won`t arrive until after peak heating/instability
(generally around 01-03Z in far W/NW zones), with storms losing
organization with time and eastward extent. A few marginal
warnings probably won`t justify a watch, and latest CAMs are on
board with a generally weakening trend. Thus, capped PoPs at 50
percent, for now. However, sometimes MCVs develop in these
patterns and locally enhance shear and allow convection to persist
a bit longer. Will let eve shift adjust forecast/messaging
depending on how activity evolves over next few hrs. Expected
weakening and steady E/SE motion should keep us from having much
for hydro concerns.
For Tue-Wed, the upper low over S CA is forecast to slowly shift
eastward towards the Four Corners area. Several weak perturbations
will precede the primary upper low within weak zonal/SW flow, and
just about any of these could serve as an impetus for iso-scat
tstm development within environment of ample low level moisture
and weak capping (H7 temps generally less than 10C). Confidence on
timing and coverage of day-to-day chcs are quiet low given the
nebulous, summer-like forcing/upper flow, but continued
combination of moderate instability and weak shear should lead to
primarily multi-cell clusters and perhaps a few brief/transient
supercells. This should keep the severe threat pretty
limited/isolated, and mainly during the late aftn and eve hours.
Have capped PoPs at the "high chance" range through Thu aftn.
More coherent forcing will be possible late in the week and into
the weekend as the aforementioned SW upper trough slides further
E. However, model guidance generally weakens the trough as it
does, so will probably still be looking at a really messy
situation. Perhaps this pattern could allow for better/more
widespread pcpn chcs so allowed for "likely" PoPs the blend gave,
but did reduce from "definite". Hopefully this comes to fruition
as most of the CWA have had a very dry May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 736 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Overall-high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and
rain/thunderstorm-free conditions through at least the vast
majority of the period, with mainly just scattered to broken mid-
high level VFR clouds. By far the main issue is roughly a 5-hour
"window of opportunity" for thunderstorms this evening-overnight,
with an outside chance that they could become briefly severe
(main threats being gusts 40-50KT and/or small hail and brief
heavy rain. Strongly considered a TEMPO group to cover the heart
of this time frame, and may very well amend to include
TEMPO/prevailing in a few hours as timing becomes clearer, but for
now will maintain a generic "vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) for
03-08Z KEAR/04-09Z KGRI. Once any possible shower/storm activity
moves out overnight, kept the remainder of the period void of any
additional rain/thunderstorm mention. That being said, there are
at least subtle hints that especially KGRI could see another
chance for isolated convection in the area after 20-21Z. However,
confidence is so low in this scenario that have left out for now.
Wind-wise, outside of any possible thunderstorm outflow effects
(that could promote erratic/gusty winds for a short time) do not
foresee significant issues, with sustained speeds through most of
the period at-or-below 12KT, and gusts largely at-or-below 17KT.
Direction will prevail generally southerly (again, aside from
thunderstorm outflow effects that could temporarily promote a
sudden shift to mainly a northerly/westerly component).
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
840 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Storm activity is beginning to turn southeast into the LLJ. Models
had been forecasting this to occur, however the placement was 60
miles to the west. The storm activity should be east of Norton and
Graham counties by 4 AM CT.
The outflow boundary continues to outpace the storm activity. This
is lowering confidence the storms will become more intense. In
addition there have yet to be any severe wind gusts reported.
Therefore confidence is low there will be any severe wind gusts at
this point.
UPDATE Issued at 531 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Storm activity should increase over the next couple hours or so,
reaching a peak by mid evening. After that the storms will move
out of the forecast area around midnight. Main threats will be
damaging straight-line winds once the storms form a line. Prior to
forming a line there could be a risk for low end large hail. Flash
flooding will also be a threat due to the slow movement. However,
given the drier air that is in place flooding should not be as
much of a threat as the last few days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny
with some cumulus developing to the west/northwest as some
convection developing over portions of northeast Colorado.
For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours, the
latest HRRR and NamNest do show scattered convection forming over
northeast portions of Colorado, eventually forming into a weak line,
then shifting ESE into the cwa between 21z-00z. The latest SPC
outlook does have the much of the area under a Marginal Risk for
severe storms, with both wind/hail risks. SBCape values around
1500j/kg up to around 3000j/kg in some area, DCape around 1200j/kg
along with decent MUCape as well show the airmass could support some
strong to severe storms. Guidance is showing a potential second line
to move through the cwa later this evening, with the focus being SW
Nebraska, all clearing the cwa by 08z-09z Tuesday.
Similar patterns to continue for Tuesday and Wednesday for the
region. Chances for showers/storms persist, as guidance has upper
level ridging over the cwa giving way to a couple shortwaves that
will interact with a surface boundary(s) to trigger storms. Decent
PW values continue to push into the area as dewpts remain in the
50s, especially east. The surface boundaries moving east off the
Front Range will interact with decent southerly moist flow allowing
for late interaction/formation of storms similar to the past several
days.
Based on past rainfall, the current areas that continue to be most
prone to potential flooding will be along/north of Highway 36. While
WPC currently does not have an excessive rainfall outlook for these
days, the slow movement of storms as seen in past days, look to
trigger locally heavy rainfall so thinking localized flooding
concerns will be there. WPC has a marginal risk for today. SPC does
have a marginal risk for Tue-Wed, so the threats for wind/hail will
be there as well.
For temps, looking for highs on Tuesday to range in the 80s area-
wide, with warmest locales east. On Wednesday with more cloud/precip
potential, upper 70s to mid 80s are expected. Overnight lows in the
short term remain fairly close each night with mainly 50s expected.
Warmest areas east. Some locales along/east of Highway 83 could even
see numbers near the 60F mark.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Active weather will continue through the extended periods as an
omega block like pattern continues to influence the region, with
ridge center slowly retrograding back over the area. Medium range
models in decent agreement with the overall pattern although
given relatively weak flow/forcing expected confidence in one
particular area over another is low. While there will be a
persistent threat for severe weather, overall weak flow aloft
will limit overall magnitude of severe threat. A more widespread
threat will be potential for locally heavy rain and more flooding.
Slow storm movement, relatively high precipitable water values
and already saturated ground will keep the flooding threat
elevated through the period. Temperatures will remain similar to
this past week with values around normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main impact will be the
thunderstorm activity that is slowly moving eastward. Thunderstorm
activity will increase over the next hour or so then gradually
decline toward 6z. Heavy rainfall and straight light wind gusts
will be the primary threats with these storms. KMCK is the most
likely to be impacted by these storms. However there is a chance
for storms to form northwest of KGLD then move over the site.
Confidence is moderate this will occur.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
712 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
The upper-air pattern continues to be characterized by a Rex block
over eastern North America, comprised of an upper high over the
Great Lakes an upper low over the southeast CONUS, with fairly weak
tropospheric flow over the region. At the surface, a broad synoptic
ridge is draped over the region -- extending from a high over
eastern Canada -- with a weak/diffuse surface low over the mid
Atlantic coast. This regime is maintaining weak low-level easterly
flow on a broad scale, but a mesoscale lake-breeze circulation has
developed again this afternoon, similar to recent days.
A modest increase in southeasterly low-level flow (10-20 kts at 925
mb) tonight should facilitate weak low-level moisture transport into
the region. Short-range guidance suggests that surface dewpoints
should generally increase after daybreak Tue as the convective
boundary layer deepens and entrains this moisture, with mid 40s-mid
50s dewpoints likely to be common across the area during the
afternoon. The arrival of this low-level moisture -- with a
corresponding reduction in convective temps (likely into the mid 80s
F) -- should yield widespread cumulus development across inland
areas on Tue, given sufficient boundary-layer warming. High temps on
Tue will likely be warmer than today, reaching the upper 80s to
around 90 F across inland areas, given the expectation of warmer 850-
mb temps.
12z HREF guidance suggests that isolated showers may develop on Tue
afternoon along/east of the lake-breeze front, where cumulus may
become sufficiently deep. However, RAP forecast profiles indicate a
fairly deep and dry subcloud boundary layer, suggesting that
evaporation/virga will be substantial beneath any precip-producing
clouds. Will opt to maintain PoPs below 15 percent (threshold for
slight-chance showers) with this update, but will introduce a slight
chance of sprinkles away from the lakeshore.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
Our focus in the long term portion of the forecast will be on
rain chances, albeit small ones, through much of the period from
Wednesday through Sunday, with some possible better chances for rain
coming next Monday. We will see a trend of warmer temperatures
through next weekend, and generally a slow increase in moisture. The
moisture trend is a bit complicated, and we will discuss further
below.
Upper ridge will remain in control of the weather across the area
into early next weekend in one form or another. This will keep
widespread and appreciable rain out of the area likely into next
weekend.
There are caveats to this thinking though as we will see the
potential for a few mainly diurnal showers and storms increase
slightly for Wednesday and Thursday. What happens is that we will
see a bit higher moisture move in with a southerly component to the
low level flow develop. This will bring in sfc dew points into the
50s, and maybe even 60s by Thursday. This moisture will combine with
a fairly stout lake breeze convergence band that is forecast by the
models to pop a few showers and storms in the afternoon. Convergence
is almost maximized with a synoptic flow from the SE, and a lake
breeze from the NW developing. So while most of the area will stay
dry, there could be some locally heavy downpours with slow moving
cells as the lake breeze moves further inland.
The rain chances might be stunted a bit for Friday and Saturday as
the flow becomes more easterly by then, and advects a pocket of much
drier air over the area. Temperatures will continue to warm at least
a couple of degrees per day with almost full sun and good mixing
taking place.
We are then looking at a pattern change poised to take place in one
way or another sometime next Sunday/Monday, with details to be
ironed out. The general sense is that some strong upper energy
across Canada will drop south and push a fairly potent backdoor cold
front south through the area on the front side of the large scale
ridge across the Plains.
The interesting part of this is that the last data shows an upper
low rotating toward the area from the NE, and a moisture feed off of
the Atlantic. However this happens is quite uncertain at this time.
There is a fairly decent signal in the Ensemble means that cooler
air will replace the heat toward next weekend and then the following
week. Rain chances will be quite uncertain depending on if the front
will have some moisture to tap as it moves through, but it will be a
better chance that strong ridging overhead.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
VFR conditions to continue through Tuesday evening. There could be
some shallow ground fog at JXN but this should not affect flight
operations. Winds will be light and variable tonight and generally
from the southeast below 10 knots on Tuesday. Winds will go west
at MKG in the afternoon as the lake breeze moves through.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
A broad ridge of high pressure remains situated over the region,
providing a fairly weak synoptic-scale surface pressure gradient.
Over the next several days, winds in nearshore waters will continue
to be primarily modulated by afternoon lake-breeze development and
nighttime land-breeze development--likely through at least Friday.
Winds speeds are expected to be light (15 kts of less), limiting
wave development in nearshore waters to 2 feet or less.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
Fire danger only continues to increase with the continued dry
pattern, and will continue on that trend for the foreseeable future.
The biggest concern would be in the Jack Pine Forests across Central
Lower, but just about all inland areas have extreme fire danger as
of this afternoon.
Dew points are progged to come up gradually over the next few days
with a southerly wind advecting the slightly higher moisture over
the area. Temps will be warming too, and will likely keep RHs low.
We do not see all three criteria for Red Flag Warnings being met in
the next couple of days. If there is a sliver lining in things, the
winds will remain relatively light. If the land management agencies
see conditions bad enough without the wind, Red Flag Warnings may be
needed eventually.
This will continue until around Monday, June 5th when this pattern
is expected to break down, and cooler air will move in with some
better rain chances.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
We looked up the records for the next week with the very warm to
hot conditions coming in. Many of these are quite high, and not
reachable, but there are a few here and there that could be in
jeopardy. Here are the records for the next couple of days. We
will likely send out social media messages with all of the data
for reference.
Record High Temps
GRR MKG LAN AZO BTL BIV
Tue 5/30 92-2019 90-2018 95-1895 94-1978 94-1895 94-1942
Wed 5/31 95-1934 88-2016 96-1895 93-1911 94-1919 92-1934
Thu 6/1 102-1934 88-2014 97-1934 102-1934 100-1934 100-1934
Record Warm Lows
GRR MKG LAN AZO BTL BIV
Tue 5/30 68-2018 74-2022 70-2022 72-2018 72-2018 70-2018
Wed 5/31 73-1937 70-1970 73-2022 71-2022 71-2022 73-1937
Thu 6/1 74-1934 66-1970 68-1970 71-1895 71-1895 75-1934
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kenyon
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...Ostuno
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ
CLIMATE...NJJ
MARINE...Kenyon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
A small decaying complex of storms (MCS) continues to fester over
the Flint Hills and southeast KS at this time, with a Meso Induced
Vort center (MCV) generated by the MCS moving into the Flint Hills/
eastern KS as well. Latest Hi-rez short range models suggest that
the MCV may lead to late afternoon showers and a few storms
continuing to develop over SE KS for the late afternoon into early
evening hours. Some model solutions also bring some of the central
OK convection into SE KS as well. So this area looks like the most
likely spot for storm chances for this afternoon/evening. Bubble
high left over from last nights MCS, in south central KS, will
likely preclude any shower/storm redevelopment over the rest of the
forecast area through the early evening hours.
For tonight, latest RAP suggests low level moisture transport will
focus well north of the forecast area, into ern Neb overnight, where
some sort of convective complex will probably develop late tonight.
This moisture transport may also lead to a stray shower over ern KS
overnight, so will leave a low pop in for this chance. Could also
see another area of moisture transport lead to another area
showers/storms develop along the high plains.
Some uncertainty on how Tue plays out, as prevailing storm motion
vectors suggest that any kind of complex that develops over ern Neb,
will dive south into NE KS by early on Tue, potentially laying out
some sort of outflow boundary across central and ern KS early on
Tue, as the MCS decays over NE KS. So will keep some chance pops
over eastern sections of the forecast area for this chance. The rest
of the forecast area will probably stay dry, as focus shifts over
the high plains for Tue evening, as a shortwave lifts NE out of the
Rockies.
For Wed through Fri, most of the forecast area stays on the eastern
edge of the somewhat better mid level flow, this will likely focus
convective chances over the high plains, but also across the western
half of the forecast area. This will lead to an unsettled weather
pattern for most of the area, as either convection comes off the
high plains, potentially into central and south central KS, or weak
impulses in the weak SW flow moves across the area. At this time Thu
afternoon/evening looks like the best chance for a widespread
shower/storm chances.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Heading to next weekend, medium range models suggest that upper
ridging will build across the northern plains, which will lead to a
blocky pattern across the plains going into the weekend. Latest GFS
suggests some higher precipitable water air will linger across the
area even with the light flow, which may lead to continued chances
of "hit or miss" showers/storms into the weekend. Not alot of
confidence on how this will play out.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Per radar and satellite trends, will see a few hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms this evening across southern and southeast
Kansas, in vicinity of a weak upper wave and subtle convergence
boundaries. Held onto VCSH for a few hours this evening at
Wichita and Chanute. Will need to monitor for possible isolated
TSRA amendment at those sites. Otherwise, may see isolated hit-or-
miss activity fester over far southeast KS overnight, with
another area of isolated to widely scattered activity possible
over central and north-central KS after midnight. All-in-all, this
is a low confidence forecast with regard to shower/storm chances
and coverage given the weak forcing and hit-or-miss nature.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 63 85 64 85 / 20 30 20 30
Hutchinson 62 86 62 86 / 20 20 20 30
Newton 62 85 63 85 / 20 30 20 30
ElDorado 61 83 63 84 / 30 40 20 40
Winfield-KWLD 62 84 63 85 / 30 30 20 30
Russell 62 87 62 88 / 20 10 30 30
Great Bend 62 87 62 86 / 10 10 30 30
Salina 63 88 63 88 / 20 20 20 40
McPherson 62 86 62 86 / 20 20 20 30
Coffeyville 62 83 63 84 / 30 40 30 30
Chanute 62 84 63 84 / 30 50 30 40
Iola 62 84 63 84 / 30 50 30 40
Parsons-KPPF 62 83 63 84 / 30 40 30 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Key Messages:
- Thunderstorms this evening and tonight, some may be severe with
damaging winds and hail the main threats, along with very heavy rain
- Daily storm chances continue through the forecast period,
including marginal severe Tue & Wed and greatest potential Thu & Fri
- Seasonable temps with highs in the 80s Tue & Wed, 70s/80s after
Synopsis:
Nebraska is caught between two upper closed lows, one centered off
the Calif coast and the other the N.Carolina coast. A quasi-
stationary front or surface trough stretches across the panhandle
and western Sandhills this afternoon, anchored by a low near the
Badlands. A couple other little surface boundaries are noted across
the Sandhills.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
This evening and tonight... Thunderstorms will continue to develop
near the front in western Nebraska and possibly grow upscale or
become more organized as they progress eastward. Surface temps in
the 80s and dew points near 60F, along with cool temps aloft (around
7C at H7 and -13C at H5), have resulted in ample instability over
the forecast area this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE
values of 2000+ j/kg and mid-level lapse rates as steep as 8 C/km.
Deep layer shear is marginally supportive of severe storms,
currently (as of 20z) measuring 25-30 kts. However, a speed max at
H5 approaching from the Rockies may bump those values up this
evening. Cloud layer shear vectors are somewhat perpendicular to the
main boundary, suggesting isolated/scattered convection to start.
Depending on cold pool strength, which may be on the more powerful
side compared to shear, the storms may grow upscale into an MCS by
late evening. As such, the primary severe threats will likely
transition from wind/hail mix to more wind as the event progresses.
Additionally, will need to monitor the torrential rain threat. Storm
motion vectors are not abnormally slow, but seasonally high PWAT and
recent heavy rain/flooding concerns raises the threat. For overall
timing and coverage, used a blend of HRRR, NAMnest, and RRFS. This
blend suggests initiation (which is just occurring as of 20z) in the
western and central Sandhills, increased activity from KIML to KLBF
to KONL around 00z, and toward central Neb (KBBW) by 03z. For min
temps, stayed near the NBM mean with values ranging from near 50F
panhandle to near 60F far north central.
Tomorrow... Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues for Nebraska as the
pair of upper lows drift east a little. The surface boundary/front
will likely be an issue once again as it maintains its general
position over western Neb. Southerly flow at H85 up the High Plains
continues to draw moisture off the Gulf, which translates to surface
dew points in the 50s (west) to around 60F (east). Weak WAA is also
noted, suggesting another day of highs in the 80s. This combination
will result in sufficient instability for thunderstorms, let alone
strong or severe. Forecast MUCAPE values approach 3000 j/kg and mid-
level lapse rates near 8 C/km by late afternoon. Deep layer shear
appears to be similar to today, marginally supportive of larger hail
and stronger winds. An afternoon initiation - evening evolution
scenario may be in the works.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Flow aloft transitions to southwesterly and eventually meridional as
the Western US trough axis and accompanying closed low move onshore
and toward the Four Corners. Longer range guidance suggests the
closed low will stall or meander over the central Rockies. This
setup, along with surface features in the vicinity, spell a
continued synoptically active period for western Nebraska. Daily
thunderstorms are a possibility, but the greater potential for more
widespread activity occurs late this week with the approaching upper
low. Temperatures should remain seasonable through next weekend with
highs generally in the 80s Wednesday, then 70s/lower 80s to round
out the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023
Thunderstorms are the primary aviation weather concern for western
and north central Nebraska, mainly through 30/06z. Scattered
coverage will become more widespread through this evening from
KOGA to KTIF to KONL and terminals east (incl. KLBF). Expect hail,
gusty erratic winds, and torrential rainfall leading to visby
reductions. South winds will also transition to westerly tonight
before becoming light and variable toward dawn. Southerly winds
resume midday, along with isolated storm chances after 30/21z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
740 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Through tonight)
Issued at 210 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
Another nice day is wrapping up the Memorial Day holiday weekend
across Upper MI. Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the
mid-level anticyclone that has dominated the weather across the
Upper Great Lakes during the weekend is currently centered near
Drummond Island. With very dry continuing to circulate over the area
per 12z KGRB/KAPX soundings, sunny skies are the rule. A shortwave
lifting n thru MN/western WI only has high clouds associated with
it. Some of this ci is spreading across far western Upper MI. Early
aftn temps are in the upper 70s to mid 80s F across the board with
the exception of locally 60s to 70F lakeside. A few Lake Superior
lakeside locations are in the upper 50s F. RH has once again
plummeted into the teens to lwr 20s pct. Fortunately, winds are
again light, keeping the elevated wildfire conditions from being
more of an issue. However, the lengthening dry spell with multiple
days of strong drying under very low RH is becoming an increasing
concern for wildfire potential.
Yet another quiet night is expected tonight. With a dry air mass
lingering and winds falling off to calm in the interior, favored the
lowest guidance for min temps. With each day slightly warming the
air mass and with precipitable water slightly rising each day, min
temps won`t be as low as last night. Expect temps to fall to the lwr
40s at the low end over the s central/se fcst area. A couple of the
traditional cold spots may slip blo 40F. Temps will range up into
50s w to n central where southerly winds will be stirring. A few
spots may not fall much blo 60F.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
Generally calm summer weather continues through the extended period
with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. While
there are chances of isolated diurnal showers/thunderstorms nearly
every day from Wednesday through Saturday, expect most places will
stay dry. Thursday, Friday, or Saturday may have more scattered
storms, but limited synoptic support and weak shear doesn`t provide
much hope.
Starting with Tuesday morning, upper level ridging gets pushed east
over New England as a trough lifts from the Northern Plains into
Canada. This positions a corridor of deep SSW flow extending from
the western Gulf of Mexico across our area. This allows for a
gradual increase in humidity through the middle of the week as
precipitable water values increase from ~0.7 inches Tuesday morning
to ~1.4 inches by Thursday afternoon. Pwats stay elevated late this
week as a diffuse 500mb vort max slowly meanders around Ontario.
Unfortunately, the previously anticipated cool front late this week
seems to have vanished from 12z model guidance. Instead, we`re
treated to an extension of summer-like weather as upper level
ridging retrogrades from New England on Wednesday to central Canada
by late Sunday. The diffuse Ontario vort max may track southwest
across our CWA this weekend as the upper level ridge axis moves
through resulting in weak northerly flow aloft. The far western UP
could get an isolated shower/storm Wednesday, but Thursday-Saturday
is the most likely time frame for diurnal precip chances. At this
time, ensemble means favor the interior west with much lower chances
across the east and the Keweenaw. A quick glance at the convective
environment indicates CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk
shear values at or below 20 knots so weak pulse storms should be the
dominant storm mode.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
With persistent high pres ridge and associated very dry low-level
air mass extending over the Great Lakes region, VFR will prevail at
IWD/CMX/SAW thru this fcst period. Winds thru tonight will be mostly
under 10kt. Later Tue morning, expect ocnl south gusts to 15-20kt
at IWD/SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 357 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
With broad ridging overhead, wind gusts are expected to remain below
20 kt across the lake through the entire forecast period. A few weak
and short-lived thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday
over far western portions of the lake, expanding to the western
third by Thursday. Waves should remain around 1-3 feet lake-wide
through the forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...EK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
945 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains anchored over the Northeast through mid-
week while weakening low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas
will slowly drift northward. The low may bring some scattered
shower chances to Delmarva, but dry weather should prevail
overall with increasing temperatures through the end of the
week. A back-door cold front passes through on Saturday and
introduces a cooler airmass.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast on track this evening and only adjustments were made
for the tomorrow`s forecast (more on that below). Just have some
light showers over the extreme southern portion of Cape May
County and lower Delaware. Eventually overnight, showers should
get pushed away from most areas as an upper high builds. Pops
will decrease overnight back to low chance/slight chc. Lows
tonight will range from the mid/upper 50s for the S/E areas and
mid 40s to low 50s elsewhere.
On Tuesday, fair weather is once again expected for most areas
as high pressure builds over the region. A couple showers for
srn NJ are possible during the morning. Highs Tue will mostly be
in the low/mid 70s with mid/upper 60s for the shore areas. The
main change for tomorrow was adding smoke/haze to the grids
tomorrow afternoon. An ongoing wildfire in southwestern Nova
Scotia has resulted in a large plume of smoke near the Gulf of
Maine. The prevailing wind pattern will push that smoke south
and eventually westward toward our region tomorrow. Opted to use
the HRRR-smoke which seemed to have a good handle on conditions.
We did get some reports tonight of a smoke smell, which the HRRR
did hint at. The latest run actually shows the potential for
some near-surface smoke to infiltrate our region tomorrow
afternoon in addition to high altitude smoke. At the very least,
expect a relatively hazy day, with the potential for some
reduced visibility at the surface.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic Ocean
south of the Canadian Maritimes and closed H5 low with surface
low pressure continue to meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. By Thursday, low pressure
will weaken and dissipate.
Several bands of light rain and drizzle will rotate around the
low and will spread back towards southern Delmarva. PoPs will be
low, generally slight chance to low end chance, and any QPF
that falls will be light. Generally on the order of a few
hundredths of an inch or so through the period. Patchy fog
develops at night, especially along the coasts and into
Delmarva.
Skies will generally be partly to mostly sunny on Wednesday and
Thursday for the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. By
Thursday, skies will clear out for the southern third of the
forecast area.
Lows will be in the 40s to low 50s Tuesday night, and then in
the 50s on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper
60s along the coast, and in the low to mid 70s a bit inland from
the coasts. For interior areas, highs will be in the upper 70s.
On Thursday, highs warm into the mid and upper 80s inland, and
otherwise in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period begins with an upper trough digging across
Nova Scotia and an expansive upper ridge centered across the
Great Lakes. High pressure should still remain in control and
keep us dry on Friday, though it will be weakening/exiting into
the weekend. No significant changes with the 12z guidance for
the long term period. The NBM has come down a degree or two with
Friday`s high temperatures, but is still holding firm with
mainly upper 80s to low 90s and cooler along the coast. 850 mb
temperatures of 16-17C are inching close to supporting 90s for
highs, but MOS guidance suggests that upper 80s might be a
better bet as of now. Certainly won`t rule out the 90s being
reached, and will continue to hold with consensus/NBM until we
get some more agreement across the guidance.
The forecast becomes more uncertain going into next weekend.
The deterministic suite of guidance indicates a potent shortwave
moving south out of New England and a back door surface front
coming onshore on Saturday. Meanwhile, an area of surface low
pressure will be sliding up the Atlantic coast, and both the GFS
and ECMWF show the shortwave aiding in the low`s development
before quickly evolving into a closed low itself. Ensembles
remain spread on the strength and track of the surface low.
Ultimately, the setup is favoring a cooldown on Saturday after a
quite warm Friday thanks to the front giving us onshore
flow/some scattered shower potential. Held with NBM which
introduces some slight chance (sub-25%) PoPs with frontal
passage on Saturday, though moisture may be lacking with the
front. The latter half of the weekend looks dry at this point,
but the track of the low will have to be ironed out through the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight... VFR expected. Decreasing clouds. East winds 10 to 15
kts with some gusts around 25 kts possible early before
diminishing to around 10 kt for most terminals through the
overnight hours. High confidence.
Tuesday...Guidance has shown the potential for stratus moving
in from offshore, affecting KACY tomorrow morning. This could
result in a brief period of MVFR CIGs. KMIV looks to steer clear
of the low ceilings, but confidence is low currently. Much
higher confidence in the I-95 and Lehigh Valley terminals
staying VFR through the day, with predominantly clear skies for
those spots. By midday, stratus should be out of KACY, with only
high clouds remaining. Another thing to watch is the potential
for some reduced visibility due to near-surface smoke from
wildfires in Nova Scotia. Highly uncertain on exact impacts, and
whether near surface smoke/reduced visibility will come to
fruition, but some model guidance does hint at the possibility
of it tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds will be easterly
around 10 kt, with KACY/KMIV seeing gusts around 20-25 kt.
Moderate confidence overall.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR, except sub-VFR conditions possible at
KACY/KMIV in light rain, drizzle, and fog. N-NE winds 5 to 10
kt. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday...VFR. NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible in fog and
stratus. Light N winds. Low confidence.
Thursday...VFR. E winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.
Friday...VFR. Some scattered afternoon clouds. Southeasterly
wind 5- 10 knots. Moderate confidence.
Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with the passage of a
cold front. Northeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 25
knots. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure to the N/NE is reestablishing itself across the
region and this has started with a stronger onshore flow
developing across the waters tonight. Winds will continue to
remain onshore tonight and Tuesday. Winds will reach 25 to 30
kts at times and the SCA issued earlier for the northern NJ
waters continues. In addition, the SCA is extended south for the
srn NJ and DE waters as well and southern DE Bay as decent
gusts should occur there too. Most areas will have fair weather
tonight and Tue, but scattered showers will continue into the
evening for the DE coastal waters and nearby south NJ/southern
DE Bay areas.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...NE winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kt through
the night, but seas remain elevated at 5 to 6 feet. SCA will
continue for the NJ and DE ocean zones and for Lower DE Bay. SCA
may end early on Lower DE Bay.
Wednesday...NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3
to 5 ft on the ocean. The SCA may have to be extended for the
ocean waters.
Wednesday night...NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. SCA
unlikely. VSBY restrictions in fog possible.
Thursday...E-NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sub-SCA
conditions.
Friday...No marine headlines expected. Southeasterly wind 5-10
knots. Seas 2-3 feet.
Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.
Northeasterly wind 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Seas
building to 5-7 feet from north to south through the day.
Rip currents...
There is a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents into Tuesday evening. We are anticipating a northeast
to east wind 15 to 20 MPH with breaking waves of 3 to 4 feet.
Wind speeds and breaking waves are forecast to diminish
slightly for Wednesday. An east to northeast wind 10 to 15 MPH
is expected with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet. The rip current
risk should be at least MODERATE for Wednesday but it could
remain HIGH, especially for the New Jersey beaches from around
Atlantic City southward and for the Delaware beaches.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ431.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Brudy
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/OHara
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...Brudy
AVIATION...Brudy/Hoeflich/MPS/OHara
MARINE...Brudy/Hoeflich/Iovino/MPS/OHara
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
421 PM MST Mon May 29 2023
.Update...Updated Aviation
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions along with near to below normal temperatures will
prevail through next weekend. Breezy to locally windy conditions
are expected during the afternoon/evenings through at least mid-
week, with the strongest winds expected across portions of
Imperial County. As a couple of weather disturbances move across
the Desert Southwest through the middle to latter half of the
week, a cooling trend is anticipated with highs across most of the
lower desert communities only topping out in the lower 90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest RAP analysis indicates the short-wave ridge has shifted
eastward into New Mexico. Meanwhile, further upstream a compact
upper low is evident in water vapor imagery off the central
California coast. Between these two systems, a dry southwesterly
flow predominates across the region. With the increased meridional
component to the flow, temperatures are somewhat lower than this
time yesterday across southern California, while further east
across central and eastern Arizona, warmer conditions prevail.
As we head through the middle of the week, the aforementioned upper-
level low will be drifting eastward across southern California
through northern Arizona. As it does so, the pressure gradient
will be tightening somewhat across the region, resulting in breezy
to locally windy conditions, particularly during the
afternoon/evening hours. The strongest winds are anticipated
Tuesday and Wednesday, especially across the western half of
Imperial County, where gusts between 35-45 mph are likely. The
strong winds could result in localized areas of blowing dust as
well. Elsewhere, into Arizona, wind gusts are likely to peak
between 20-30 mph.
A cooling trend is expected on Wednesday across most of the
region as heights aloft lower in response to the approaching
upper-level low, with highs across most of the lower deserts
likely only topping out in the lower 90s. These values will be a
good 5-8 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Similar
temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday as another
weaker shortwave trough moves across the region, reinforcing the
lower heights aloft. A warming trend is then anticipated as we
head into next weekend as heights aloft rise with temperatures
warming back to near normal, which for early June is around the
century mark across the lower deserts.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2320Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Besides some afternoon breeziness, no major aviation concerns are anticipated
during the TAF period. Winds are expected to favor typical
diurnal tendencies through the period. Speeds this evening should
primarily range 8-12 kts, with gusts upwards of 20 kts. Speeds
will diminish after sunset. Clear skies are expected to prevail
through the period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the period. IPL
will favor W winds through the period, with gusts this evening
between 20-25 kts. S`rly winds will persist at BLH, with gusts
20-25 kts over the next few hours. Both locations should see
speeds diminish later this evening. Clear skies are expected to
prevail through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably dry conditions are expected to prevail through the
period along with daily afternoon/evening breezes. Enhanced winds
are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday as a weather disturbance
moves across the Desert Southwest with afternoon/evening gusts
ranging between 20-30 mph across most areas, with western Imperial
County likely to observe stronger gusts ranging between 35-45 mph.
MinRH values are expected to range between 8-15%. The combination
of the enhanced winds as well as the low RH values will result in
an elevated fire danger threat.
Below normal temperatures are expected later this week along with a
slight uptick in moisture. Thereafter, a warming trend as well as
slightly drier conditions are anticipated next weekend. Winds
will be weaker during the second half of the week through next
weekend, although the typical diurnal breezes will persist.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Updated 155 AM MST 5/29/2023
GILA: Ongoing releases from Painted Rock Dam have decreased to
the point that now the downstream gauges along the Gila River near
Dateland as well as near Dome/Yuma have fallen 1.5-2 feet below
action stage. Despite the declines, will maintain the current
Flood Warnings downstream from Painted Rock Dam until improvement
of impacts can be confirmed with officials. The Flood Warnings
remain in effect through May 30th.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ562-566.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hirsch/Lojero
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Hirsch
HYDROLOGY...Lojero/Benedict
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
957 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the southeast
plains through around midnight or shortly thereafter, however
storm strengths are rapidly decreasing with the storm cluster
across eastern Crowley and Otero counties. Can`t rule out some
gusty winds to near 50 mph, brief small hail, and heavy rainfall
with any localized stronger storms early on as this storm cluster
moves east and weakens towards midnight. Have updated pops to
reflect this trend, otherwise the remainder of the forecast
package looks on track. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Key Message:
1) Isolated strong storms possible over the far eastern plains this
evening.
2) A somewhat better chance of strong storms tomorrow over the
eastern plains.
Currently...
A few storms were trying to get their acts together over the Palmer
divide at 2 pm, with an isolated storm or tow on the Raton Mesa.
Otherwise skies mostly sunny region-wide. Ambient temps were
mostly in the 80-85F range, with mid 70s plains.
Rest of Today and Tonight...
Not much of the way of any thunder is expected over the region until
later this afternoon when storms will likely ramp up a bit as a sfc
trough pushes eastward over NE CO. A few stronger storms will be
possible late this afternoon and especially this evening over the
Palmer Divide and pushing into Kiowa county late this evening.
Directional shear is noted in the data as mid level flow is NW`rly
while sfc winds are from the SE, so shear is somewhat favorable
albeit weak (30kts or so). CAPE will likely be in the 1500-2000 J/kg
range by later today, so some marginally svr hail and strong gusty
winds possible. Will have to keep an eye for a tail-end Charlie
storm over the far eastern plains this evening on the end of the sfc
trough axis which would allow this storm to be in a more favorable
environment.
Storms elsewhere will be isolated, but gusty winds and small hail
still possible. As was the case last night, some of the convection
may last into the early morning hours.
Tomorrow...
Conditions will be a bit more favorable for stronger storms as
moisture is fcst to improve, along with CAPE and Shear. These
conditions will be most realized over the far eastern plains, and
expect to see several storms over this region by late tomorrow
afternoon. Some of these storms will be strong to possibly severe.
Heavy rain will also become more of a threat. A good part of the far
eastern plains is in a marginal risk for both severe convection and
heavy rain threat.
Max temps tomorrow will be similar to todays max temps, with temps
approaching 90 across the far eastern plains. /Ho
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
Key messages:
1) On Tuesday evening, scattered thunderstorms expected over the
eastern plains, some storms could be severe.
2) On Wednesday, there will be more widely scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and
evening hours. There will be a greater chance of severe
thunderstorms, mainly east of the I-25 corridor, and especially over
the far eastern plains late.
3) On Thursday through Friday, numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected over the plains late afternoon/evening and more
isolated from the I-25 corridor and westward over the higher
terrain. There could be some stronger, or even severe thunderstorms
over the plains.
4) On Saturday through Monday, numerous showers and thunderstorms
could potentially impact southeast Colorado with the risk of
flooding. There will be a lesser chance of severe weather.
5) Temperature trend for the next week looks to be right around the
seasonal average for the next few days, then gradually cooling down
by the end of the week and through the weekend with a slight rebound
early next week.
Detailed discussion:
Tuesday evening...
As the cut-off U/L low begins to slowly propagate eastward over
California, it will begin to tap into more sub-tropical moisture
over Mexico and bring it up over the region. With the increasing
moisture available, there will be better development of
thunderstorms over the higher terrain throughout the afternoon on
Tuesday, which will eventually move out over into the plains as mid-
level shear increases and are expected to become more organized
during the evening hours as they do. With less CIN (capping) and
better shear of 40 to 50 kts over some locations over the far
eastern plains, as well as MUCAPE of near 3000 J/kg right along the
CO/KS border, there will likely be a few storms that become stronger
or even severe these storms continue to move further eastward going
into the late evening hours.
The HRRR is hinting at the development of a possible QLCS that
initiates over western Kiowa/Bent/Eastern Las Animas counties right
around 6 PM, then pushes to the CO/KS border by around 8 PM. The
NAMNest 4km is similar, except that the line in more disorganized
and cells are more discrete. It also displays a possible supercell
over the far southeastern corner of Baca County at 8 PM. Given that
some of the best CAPE is over this area, this seems probable. The
main threat with these severe storms will be large hail, of possibly
up to 2 inches or greater in diameter, and strong gusty outflow
winds to 70 mph or greater. While the risk of tornadogenesis is
minimal, there are some areas of higher 0-1km SRH approaching 300
m^2s^-2, so a brief landspout, or even a weak tornado can`t be ruled
out. Most likely area of this occurring would be over eastern Las
Animas and Baca counties, just downwind of the Raton Mesa area.
Storms should eventually move out of the CWA by around 10 PM or
shortly thereafter. However, some of the CAMs, such as the HRRR, are
showing possible showers or even thunderstorms initiating behind the
convective line due to outflows going into the early morning hours
on Wednesday. Otherwise, skies should become mostly clear across all
of the CWA with temperatures dropping down into the mid 50s across
most of the plains, with low to mid 40s in the upper Arkansas River
Valley and San Luis Valley, and generally in the 30s for the higher
terrain.
Wednesday through Thursday...
The negatively tilted trough over the western states is going to
continue to slowly propagate eastward towards the region. There
continues to be some slight disagreement with the position of this
U/L low over the southwestern CONUS between the deterministic
models, although they are beginning to tighten up more. The GFS
still appears to keep the progression to be quicker towards the
northeast than the other models, and has the low centered almost
directly above the Four Corners area by 6 AM on Thursday morning. If
the GFS and ECMWF resolves this better than the other models, there
will be a more ample amount of moisture in the mid levels feeding up
from Texas. Nevertheless, there appears to be sufficient enough
moisture between all of the models that will be streaming up from
the south to allow for widely scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the region by late morning and through
the afternoon. CAMs have been consistent in showing very strong
southeasterly flow over the plains with dewpoints of 60 degrees
advecting up over the southeastern plains with high levels of MLCAPE
and theta-e to likely support the development of some severe
thunderstorms by later in the afternoon and evening over a good
portion of the plains. Furthermore, increasing low-level shear will
allow for SRH values to favor supercell development and the threat
for tornadogenesis, especially over the far eastern plains.
On Thursday, the progression of the U/L low towards the northeast
will result in it being absorbed into the long-wave trough upstream
as the axis becomes more negatively tilted. This will increase
instability and moisture over the plains due to southerly flow in
the mid-levels, with more numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing, especially during the afternoon and evening hours over
the far eastern plains. Deterministic models do agree that it will
become more dry slotted over the higher terrain as mid-level flow
becomes more southwesterly over this area with the approaching U/L
low. Because of this, thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature
mainly over the I-25 corridor and westward, over the higher terrain.
There could be the possibility of some severe storms again by later
in the afternoon and evening over the eastern plains with better
shear and low-level moisture already in place. With advancement of
the trough slowly towards the region, a slight cooling trend will
begin.
Friday through Monday...
Ensembles have been showing better PWAT anomalies which align more
with deterministic models than in previous days over the region,
with well-above precipitation becoming more likely from Friday and
through the weekend into Monday. Deterministic models continue to
show the development of a cut-off low positioned more to the north
now, over northwestern Colorado on Friday and remaining nearly quasi-
stationary through the weekend. This will further increase moisture
and instability as colder air aloft moves overhead, with more widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected, especially after noon.
There could be a few severe storms over the eastern plains on Friday
evening, but there will be a lesser chance of severe thunderstorms
on Saturday through Monday as the lower levels become cooler and
more stable. It is becoming more evident, with southeasterly winds
at all levels and deep layer sub-tropical moisture advection that
there could be potentially high impacts for southeast Colorado due
to flooding, especially for the burn scars and urbanized areas.
Moreover, deterministic models also show troughing over the
southwestern CONUS, as well as downstream, which will likely keep
mid-level moisture confined over the region going into early next
week. Due to an upper level low moving over the area with extensive
cloud cover, it will also be considerably cooler for high
temperatures going into the weekend, especially by Sunday. There
will be a slight rebound in temperatures on Monday, although still
below the seasonal average. -Stewey
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be diurnally driven. However,
there will be a bit better chance of thunder during tomorrow
afternoon at KPUB and especially KCOS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...HODANISH