Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/29/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023
Isolated storms will be possible this afternoon into the evening
across the eastern plains. A storm or two could become strong to
severe. Thunderstorm activity becomes less robust Monday and Tuesday
before trending back up on Wednesday across the eastern plains.
Breezy conditions also return to central areas on Wednesday. Daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
central mountains and eastward through the weekend. Temperatures
will be near to below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023
Drier air continues to make progress across central NM this
afternoon where humidities continue to crater and cumulus which
tried to develop during the late morning has mostly been
obliterated. SPC Outlook has continued to shift the slight risk area
away from northeast NM while maintaining the marginal risk area
along and east of a line from east of Raton to east of Ruidoso. The
HRRR has persisted with mostly isolated activity over this area and
even the RAP shows sparse cells. The NAM12 has a couple of clusters
over far northeast NM as well as far east central/southeast NM early
this evening but they quickly move into TX. They all suggest low
level moisture will make a run westward again tonight but not as far
west as previous nights and made a gesture towards this by adding
some patchy fog to the Clovis/Portales area late tonight/early
Monday morning. The building upper ridge over NM on Memorial Day and
Monday night would lead to even fewer showers and storms over the
east and even less of a westward slosh of low level moisture Monday
night. However, northeast NM would be under northwest flow aloft so
would be the more likely area to see showers or storms during this
time. Overall, temperatures won`t stray too far from normal for most
locales.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023
Upper level ridging intensifies on Tuesday, the axis of which
shifting across eastern NM. The upper level forcing removed and
optimal moisture shunted well east of NM, thunderstorm
development will be greatly limited. What little activity does
develop will be isolated to the northeast, where embedded
shortwaves will help to embolden recycled moisture and orographic
lift. Meanwhile, a deep upper low off the coast of SoCal will
begin to track inland. This will bring increasing southwest flow
aloft on Wednesday as the system quickly makes its way to AZ.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will plague central zones in
the afternoon. With amplified south winds anticipated in the RGV,
there may be some potential for the event to over-perform beyond
model guidance. This setup will need to be monitored in the coming
updates to see if wind highlights will be necessary across the
middle and lower RGV.
While dry conditions will ensue across western zones, the central
mts and eastward may find themselves party to another afternoon
of severe weather. The latest model guidance suggests that
moisture won`t be as rich and available energy will pale in
comparison to the previous week. Nonetheless, the basic mechanisms
will be present to produce robust thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon, particularly north of I-40. This will be the setup to
monitor as models become more refined and additional severe
parameters come into better focus. The struggle continues beyond
Wednesday with how the low will evolve. Better agreement has been
reached on the system ejecting into CO as another low attempts to
organize in western AZ. This would allow activity to continue
Thursday afternoon across eastern NM. The second low will push
through AZ Friday morning, keeping southwest flow aloft poised
over NM. This will help to continually invigorate the forcing
needed to keep storms firing out east Friday. The disturbance
passes into NM Friday night, stalling out, and keeping storms in
play Saturday across much of northern and eastern NM. The exact
trajectory of this low will have a great impact on storm coverage
and intensity over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms on the far eastern
plains will track east of NM around sunset. Tonight into Monday
morning, areas of low clouds and perhaps some fog are expected
across the far eastern plains with MVFR conditions. With much
drier air moving in on Monday, and a ridge of high pressure
building northward over the forecast area, any showers and
thunderstorms will be isolated and favor the area from the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains eastward during the afternoon until sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sun May 28 2023
Despite low level moisture pushing back to the Rio Grande Valley
Saturday night, drier air aloft has been making progress into
central NM and considerably limiting storm development this
afternoon compared to previous days. Showers and storms will be
confined Monday and Tuesday to mainly northeast and far eastern NM
as an upper ridge builds over the region. Localized elevated to near
critical conditions are possible Monday and Tuesday west of the Rio
Grande Valley and where an isolated high based shower or storm could
develop Tuesday. By Wednesday, low level moisture will begin to
slosh more robustly back and forth, leading to more active showers
and storms central and east for the rest of the week. However,
critical conditions are possible through the Middle Rio Grande
Valley Wednesday afternoon where stronger winds ahead of an
approaching trough are forecast to combine with persistent dry
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 45 85 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 37 80 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 44 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 5
Gallup.......................... 38 81 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 40 78 42 77 / 0 0 0 5
Grants.......................... 41 83 41 82 / 0 0 0 5
Quemado......................... 43 81 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 49 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 10
Datil........................... 44 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 5
Reserve......................... 43 83 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 52 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 36 74 37 72 / 0 0 0 5
Los Alamos...................... 48 79 50 77 / 0 0 0 5
Pecos........................... 45 79 48 79 / 0 5 0 10
Cerro/Questa.................... 37 74 37 73 / 0 5 0 20
Red River....................... 32 71 34 68 / 0 10 5 20
Angel Fire...................... 26 70 28 70 / 0 10 5 20
Taos............................ 38 80 40 79 / 0 5 0 10
Mora............................ 41 76 44 75 / 0 10 0 20
Espanola........................ 40 84 42 85 / 0 0 0 5
Santa Fe........................ 47 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 5
Santa Fe Airport................ 46 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 55 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 87 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 53 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 54 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 51 87 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 50 89 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 52 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 53 89 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 51 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 53 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 56 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 5
Tijeras......................... 49 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 46 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 5
Moriarty/Estancia............... 42 83 43 83 / 0 0 0 5
Clines Corners.................. 47 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 5
Mountainair..................... 48 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 50 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 5
Carrizozo....................... 55 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 50 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 5
Capulin......................... 46 76 48 77 / 5 20 10 30
Raton........................... 44 81 45 81 / 5 20 10 20
Springer........................ 42 80 45 82 / 5 10 0 20
Las Vegas....................... 42 79 45 80 / 0 10 0 10
Clayton......................... 52 81 54 83 / 20 20 10 20
Roy............................. 47 79 49 80 / 10 10 0 20
Conchas......................... 49 80 50 88 / 5 5 0 5
Santa Rosa...................... 50 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 5
Tucumcari....................... 53 84 55 87 / 10 5 0 5
Clovis.......................... 54 83 55 88 / 20 5 0 5
Portales........................ 55 85 56 90 / 20 5 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 54 87 56 91 / 5 0 0 5
Roswell......................... 58 94 60 96 / 5 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 53 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 5
Elk............................. 52 83 53 85 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...44
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
746 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Updated to reduce pops dramatically for the remainder of the
night. The convective event has largely ended, with mesoanalysis
depicting convective inhibition overcoming the remain instability.
A squall line from near Hooker, Oklahoma to near Dalhart, Texas
will continue southeastward for the next several hours. Most if
not all impacts should remains south of the KS/OK line, but will
continue to monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
The early afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a mid
level trough axis extending from the Black Hills region of South
Dakota south-southeastward into western Kansas. In addition, there
was a small scale mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) lifting
northeast out of the Oklahoma Panhandle into adjacent southwest
Kansas. North and northwest of the MCV center was a fairly
persistent region of mid and high cloud cover, limiting insolation.
None of the models have a handle on this MCV and its cloud cover, as
numerous models have surface temperatures 18Z in the upper 70s to
lower 80s where it was 70 to 73 degrees. The models, especially
recent runs of the HRRR, were developing storms in far southwest
Kansas right where this cloud cover was limiting insolation, so
there is low confidence in placement of initial thunderstorm
activity given the unforecast MCV.
Instability was, however slowly developing immediately east of the
MCV`s cloud influence, so it stands to reason that initial
convection will likely form along or just east of the Highway 83
corridor. This is the first area we will be monitoring as the
afternoon progresses. The second area is farther north into west
central and portions of northwest Kansas where surface-based
convergence was stronger along with an expanding region of surface-
based cumulus. Recent HRRR runs were developing fairly aggressive
storms along I-70 corridor and just north...from roughly Gove to
Hoxie to Hill City. Storms in this region may then form a mesoscale
convective system like the southern area with not much in between.
It is entirely possible, and perhaps likely, that a fairly large
area of our southwest Kansas region may not see much thunderstorm
activity at... perhaps including Dodge City, Jetmore, Scott city,
Dighton. All in all, the Period One (Tonight period) precipitation
forecast is rather low confidence for as soon in the future as it
is. Regardless, the core MCS activity will likely be east/southeast
of our DDC forecast area by as soon as 04Z or 05Z.
Monday will be a tranquil day following tonight`s thunderstorm event
as a mid level ridge of high pressure develops from New Mexico into
Colorado with influence east into west central and southwest
Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
The latest global ensemble means from both the European (EPS) model
and the American/NCEP (GEFS) model continue to paint a wet pattern
for much of the Central and Southern High Plains, including
southwest Kansas. Both global ensemble systems show a similar "high
over low" 500mb height anomaly pattern with the significant positive
500mb height anomalies shifting slowly westward from southeastern
Canada mid to late this week...to Saskatchewan-Alberta in the 5-7
June time frame. This will favor continued perturbed southern branch
of the polar westerlies (with subtropical ties) well to the south
from Baja California across southern Arizona-New Mexico into the
Southern (and portions of Central) Plains.
The next big wave of widespread rainfall looks to be 1-4 June time
frame, where one or two significant thunderstorm cluster events
could bring much of our region 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall.
It is during this date range that the major global models, including
their ensemble members, peg the Rockies and adjacent High Plains
with numerous rounds of thunderstorm activity as an upper low
develops across Las Vegas, NV region...and ever-so-slowly lifts
northeast out across the Four Corners region...almost stalling out
over western/southern Colorado as additional smaller vorticity
anomalies reinforce the larger scale gyre. This is an incredible
pattern that would yield very high rainfall totals over a 4-day
period should something like this pan out. There is run-to-run
consistency and model-to-model agreement on this highly anomalous
wet pattern continuing and even becoming enhanced in that 1-4 June
time frame. In addition, by then, we will also have a very large
"reservoir" of evapotranspiration potential given all the rain this
entire region has already seen so far...adding even more water vapor
into the boundary layer for additional storms/MCSs to work off of.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 428 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Outside of any convective influences, VFR will continue through
this TAF cycle, with varying amounts of mid layer cloud cover at
times. A weak flow, and weakly forced regime continues to limit
thunderstorm predictability significantly. At least isolated
convection will be at least near some of the airports for the next
several hours, necessitating a VCTS/CB mention . Some models
forecast much more organized thunderstorm complexes through
tonight; should these verify, TAF amendments would be required.
With the isolated disorganized state of current convection, opted
yet again to keep this TAF update largely dry. Elevated
south/southeast winds currently will subside by 02z Mon, then
trend light and variable through 12z Mon. After 15z Mon, south to
southeast winds of 10-20 kts will resume.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 83 59 87 / 20 10 20 10
GCK 57 83 58 87 / 20 10 10 10
EHA 55 83 58 87 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 57 83 59 87 / 20 0 20 0
HYS 59 85 60 87 / 20 10 30 10
P28 61 82 62 85 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
652 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
...Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Key Messages:
* Off and on showers and thunderstorms look to persist through
tonight. Some of this activity could be on the strong side and
produce locally heavy rainfall.
* Memorial Day appears to be mainly dry and warm, though better
chances for showers and thunderstorms could arrive overnight.
* Unsettled weather pattern looks to persist through much of the
next work week. Much like last week, overall severe potential
appears pretty low, though there could be pockets of heavy
rainfall.
* After a slightly cooler day today, most of the next 7 days looks
to have highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Forecast Details:
A band of showers and weak storms, as well as additional isolated
to widely scattered activity, impacted the CWA this morning into
early aftn, but has since weakened. In it`s wake, subsidence and
clearing skies has allowed for temps to rise into the mid 70s to
lower 80s - which is essentially around the convective temp per
area soundings. Also, WV shows the local area within the S fringes
of weakening upper trough slowing moving through the N High Plains
into the Dakotas. These factors have allowed scat convection to
redevelop over W and S portions of the CWA over the past hr, and
expect this trend to continue as instability continues to incr
through early eve. Short-term CAMs have been pretty consistent in
this general convective trend/idea, but have varied to some degree
on timing and placement. Seems reasonable to think that with the
moderate CAPE (MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg) and weak shear in
place (effective shear AOB 30kt), convection will be pulsey in
nature and tend to produce outflow that promotes upscale growth
and amalgamation of convective cores with time early this eve.
Several HRRR/RRFS runs have depicted this, and the HREF even
produced a QPF bullseye over the CWA for this eve. Storms could be
marginally severe through this eve with the main risk being
quarter size hail and 60 MPH wind gusts. PWATs 125-150 percent of
normal, H85-H3 mean wind less than 20kt, weak Corfidi vectors, and
"tall, skinny CAPE" profiles all support notion of slow-moving
storms with efficient warm season rain processes. Wouldn`t be
surprised if there are 1-3 counties that receive heavy rainfall of
2-4", perhaps locally higher, as indicated by 12Z HREF and some
RRFS runs. Most of our area, with the exception of W counties,
could handle 1-3" fairly well. However, anything more than that in
only a few hrs, or heavy rates over our W counties, and we could
have some flash flooding concerns. Convection should weaken and
drift E with time tonight, but at least weak elevated instability
persists through dawn.
As suspected yesterday, it still looks like most, if not all, will
stay dry for the daytime hours of Memorial Day owing to shortwave
ridging/subsidence. Good amounts of sunshine, lighter winds, and
temperatures in the low to mid 80s will make it feel pretty warm, so
hydrate accordingly. Both SREF and HREF suggest greater potential
for showers/storms to develop, but more likely move in from the W,
in the 00Z-06Z Tue time frame. Weak forcing and shear should
preclude any severe weather.
General model consensus is that a summer-like upper pattern will
prevail through much of the new work week. Primary polar jet will
be well N across Canada, while southern stream - which looks to
remain active - will cut from the Baja into the Rio Grande Valley,
well SW of the area. This leaves the Central Plains in unusually
nebulous mid-upper flow by late Spring standards with day-to-day
sensible weather/rain chances largely driven by weak perturbations
and/or convectively induced MCVs within very weak zonal flow. Sfc
and deep layer moisture (and resultant instability) should be
sufficient for vigorous convection, but deep layer shear (outside
of any mesoscale enhancements) will likely be too weak for
organized severe weather - despite the region essentially within
peak climatological severe weather season. Much of the area is
within a Marginal Risk per SPC Day 3 Outlook as models hint at the
potential for a weak frontal boundary and weak upper disturbance,
but again, details are sketchy and the current setup doesn`t
appear to favor anything really intense or organized.
Latest model blend continues to depict a deamplifying upper trough
ejecting from the Four Corners region onto the Plains sometime
late in the week or early next weekend. Frankly, this setup
doesn`t appear to be too dissimilar from what we`ve had this
weekend, with strong blocking high pressure over Upper MS
Valley/Great Lakes and weak troughing over the central/eastern
Gulf into SE CONUS. Furthermore, models keep the primary upper jet
streak well SW of the area over the S High Plains. Latest NBM
gives likely PoPs off and on in the Day 4-7 time frame, which
seems a bit overdone, so tried to pare it back to when the upper
disturbance is most influentual locally.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Potential for scattered convection is the main concern in the
short term. Tstms are expected to incr in coverage over/near the
terminals in the 02Z to 05Z time frame. Added a TEMPO -TSRA group
to account for this, though confidence on exact VSBY/CIG within
this activity is pretty low. Tstm chcs should gradually decline in
the 06-09Z time frame...but this could set the stage for MVFR CIGs
and VSBYs. RAP/NAM/NAM4km are all on board with this, but HRRR
keeps best potential just W in better upslope conditions. Kept the
MVFR group but could see this going either way - VFR or IFR. Any
stratus/fog should scattered out around 14Z. Other than some
SCT midday/aftn CU, quiet aviation conditions are currently
expected for balance of Memorial Day with S wind 8-13kt. This is a
low-confidence TAF, in general, so will likely need amendments.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1028 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected on Memorial
Day behind a backdoor cold front. Temperatures will then warm to
well above average once again towards the middle of next week
with no wetting rains expected. A cold front will then cross
late in the week bringing our best chance for scattered showers
along with a return to more seasonable temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
0225Z Update...
Latest radar imagery continues to show a fine line over south-central
Maine in Kennebec County moving quickly to the southwest which
represents our back door cold front late this evening. This
feature will reach the cross through southern areas tonight
before crossing through southernmost New Hampshire by 07Z according
to the latest Namnest and HRRR solutions. A few clouds will
accompany the front, but mainly its impact will be an abrupt
wind shift with a period of gusty winds tonight. Have upped the
wind forecast based on latest observational trends although the
peak gusts that occurred this afternoon over northern Maine are
diminishing into the 25 kt range and that is mostly over eastern
portions of our forecast area.
Otherwise, only made minor adjustments to the forecast.
Temperatures continue to overachieve this evening with readings
in the 60s and 70s in most areas as of 02Z after reaching 90
degrees in some areas during the afternoon. Mixing through a
very deep layer allowed a southwesterly component aloft to mix
to the surface and push the coastal front back out over the
ocean.
There also remains a large fluctuation in surface dew points
from north to south. The highest readings remain over
southernmost New Hampshire and coastal Maine.
Prev Disc...
The hot and strongly mixed day will take a while to cool this
evening, especially as the late-May sun hangs in the sky through
8 PM (00Z) or so. That will change this evening and overnight,
at least for a short while, as a cold front drops down from
Canada. Looking at satellite in tandem with Canadian radar and
observations, aside from cumulus and briefly gusty winds,
there`s not much going on with the front itself so I`m not
expecting much more than perhaps a sprinkle or so across the
north when the front arrives this evening. While mixing from the
front itself will keep a northeasterly breeze through the
evening and overnight, keeping temperatures fairly mild, cold
advection will still bring cooler conditions at least to
northern zones... with lows in the 40s and 50s. Southern
interior zones may not cool past 60 however.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By about dawn on Monday, the cold front will be pushing through
southern New England with high pressure building in its wake
from Quebec. As the front continues south, so will high
pressure, and by the end of the day will be centered over Nova
Scotia and the Gulf of Maine.
For sensible weather... light northwesterly flow will be
gradually overtaken by onshore flow at the surface. So while
temperatures will quickly warm with full sunshine and mixing,
cooler maritime air will push inland and plateau or in some
places reverse the warming trend. The question is how much
warming occurs in a given location before the sea breeze
arrives... and what sort of impact the breeze has on the
boundary layer. Toward the west, full diurnal heating and
mixing can be expected with highs in the upper- 70s to around
80. For the ocean beaches, islands, and necks, you`ll be lucky
to see 60 degrees. I would expect easterly flow earlier in the
day would have more of an impact south of Portland, allowing the
interior Midcoast to warm further before winds turn more
southeasterly. In general upper-60s to mid-70s can be expected
before the wind shift occurs but the warmer and cooler spots
remain a bit uncertain.
High pressure builds across the region Monday night as an upper
level ridge nudges closer overhead from the west. This will
allow the PGF to relax a bit which along with subsidence with
the ridge should lead to a nice radiational cooling night. Dew
points will thus be key to the overnight low temperature
forecast. There`s some general model signal for temperatures in
the 30s in the usual valley locations... but am not ready to
grab a hold of any one location just yet, so have a fairly
broad-brushed low-40s forecast with a couple places dipping into
the upper-30s. Somebody, somewhere will probably get a frost...
but will have to wait and see where.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: Rex blocking will remain in place through much of the
extended portion of the forecast, which will translate to continued
dry conditions with well above average temperatures. Our best chance
for scattered showers will arrive on Friday and Saturday as a
cold front crosses through the area.
Impacts: Near record high temperatures are possible on both
Wednesday and Thursday. The lack of appreciable rainfall may
result in an expansion of abnormally dry conditions.
Forecast Details: Large scale ridging will remain firmly in
place on Tuesday as sfc high pressure moves over the Gulf of
Maine. This will promote a southerly onshore flow, keeping highs
primarily into the 70s to near 80 degrees across the interior
and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Skies will be mostly
sunny and it will therefore be a rather pleasant day. Mainly
clear skies will continue on Tuesday night but increasing dew
points will result in warm overnight lows only into the upper
40s to lower 50s.
Increasing WAA on Wednesday as high pressure builds to our southwest
will result in a warmer day with highs primarily into the middle to
upper 80s with a few 90 degree readings possible. These readings
will be 15-20 degrees above average with a few record highs
possible. Wednesday night will be warm with lows only falling into
the middle to upper 50s. Near record highs will then once again be
possible on Thursday as we remain under the influence of sfc
high pressure and 850mb temperatures climb to around +22C. One
thing to note is the potential for developing onshore during the
afternoon, which would keep coastal spots a little cooler. The
current forecast calls for highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s
across much of the region. Another warm night is then likely on
Thursday night with some places perhaps not falling below 60
degrees.
A cold front is then likely to cross during the Friday to Saturday
timeframe, bringing our best chance for scattered showers. Depending
on the timing of the frontal passage thunderstorms will be possible
given the warm preceding airmass and therefore left slight
chance thunder in the grids.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR prevails at all terminals through the next
couple days and nights. Westerly flow, southwesterly along the
coast, today turns northerly this evening and then northeasterly
overnight as a cold front drops southward through the region...
remaking at a steady 5-10 kt clip, strongest along the coast
with perhaps a brief gust and/or sprinkle as the front passes a
given terminal. Northeasterly flow prevails early and inland on
Monday, and turns southeasterly as a sea breeze / onshore flow
develops first along the coast before spreading inland through
the afternoon and evening. Winds diminish to calm or light and
variable tomorrow night.
Long Term...VFR conditions expected with daily sea breeze
chances across coastal TAF sites such as KPSM, KPWM, and KRKD. A
cold front will then arrive as we approach Friday, possibly
bringing scattered SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front drops through the waters tonight with
winds briefly gusting above 20 kts, perhaps briefly touching 25
kts a time or two as winds turn northeasterly. High pressure
builds into the coastal waters tomorrow and strengthens tomorrow
night, with winds turning southeasterly and then southerly...
diminishing in the process.
Long Term...High pressure will remain in control through next
week, allowing for light winds and seas below SCA criteria.
Daily sea breezes are also likely to develop.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Tubbs
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
742 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
The stretch of dry and seasonably warm weather will extend
through Memorial Day weekend, becoming progressively hotter by
midweek with daily highs in the low 90s. A pedestrian afternoon
shower or storm may develop each day between Wednesday and Friday
as humidity ticks up, but then a drier air mass arrives by next
weekend, squelching additional rain chances.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Scattered mid and high level clouds continue to drift westward
across the area this evening, with latest RAP humidity plots
suggesting some thickening of the mid-level clouds taking place,
and this is currently seen on satellite imagery just south and
southeast of Lawrenceville. In general, partly cloudy skies will
prevail. Temperatures appear on track to fall into the mid to
upper 50s. Little change needed in the forecast aside from some
tweaks to the cloud trends.
Geelhart
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
An upper-level blocking pattern remains in place this afternoon,
characterized by a closed low positioned over the southeast U.S.
while a high rests over the Great Lakes region. This setup
inhibits Gulf moisture from surging northward into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, and so afternoon RH values have been limited
to 25-30%, making for a stretch of pleasant summertime weather.
Dry conditions will largely persist through this week as one
blocking pattern breaks down and another develops. Heat and
humidity will progressively build such that daily afternoon
airmass-type thunderstorms will become possible Wednesday through
Friday. However, the lack of a clear forcing mechanism should
greatly limit shower and storm coverage.
The bigger story this week will be the heat as afternoon highs
surge into the low-to-mid 90s from Wednesday onward. Fortunately,
dewpoints hovering around 60 degF will mitigate triple-digit heat
index values.
Most global guidance shows semblance of a washed-out cold front
sagging into the region by next weekend. At this time it`s still
not clear weather this front will bring forth cooler temperatures
or simply drier air. Either way, very few rain chances exist for
any one point through this week into next weekend.
MJA
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
VFR conditions will continue to prevail into Monday, with any
ceilings well above 10,000 feet. While winds prevail out of the
northeast, speeds should only be in the 5 to 8 knot range for the
most part.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1004 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1004 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023
Forecast is on track. No significant changes were made.
An upper low around the Carolinas will continue to have a minor
effect on the weather locally tonight into tomorrow. Latest
satellite imagery clearly depicts moist, easterly flow off the
Atlantic streaming into the state. While the best forcing for ascent
for convective development has remained south and east of the
region, upper moisture advecting in will keep higher scattered to
broken clouds around for the next day or so. Raised min temps
tonight by a few degrees to account for higher cloud cover limiting
radiational cooling. As of 10 PM this evening, temperatures were
still in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. Expect lows by
the morning to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
The upper low begins to push eastward tomorrow, but moisture
advection off the Atlantic should keep higher clouds around.
Subsidence under the ridge over and just to the north will keep
conditions warm and dry at the surface. Low level temperatures
moderate a few degrees tomorrow as well. RAP forecast soundings
suggest deep mixing again tomorrow afternoon, combined with warm air
advection in the low and mid levels resulting in surface
temperatures a few degrees warmer than Sunday`s. Highs 82-86 degrees
are likely, with the warmest areas across the north and western
portions of the state where cloud cover should be less.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023
An upper level low to the southeast will continue to be the main
player for weather in central Indiana through Monday.
Rest of This Afternoon...
High and mid clouds will continue to move west across the forecast
area, around the upper low. Some thinning will continue to occur at
times, and this will allow temperatures to be in the 70s to around
80. Some weak isentropic lift will move across the far south. With
nothing have been reported reaching the ground from earlier forcing,
will just go with a sprinkles mention in the far south this
afternoon.
Tonight...
Although the upper low will not be racing away from the area, it
will begin to trek to the east tonight, taking the weak forcing with
it. However, mid and high level moisture will continue to rotate
around it into the area. Will keep skies at least partly cloudy.
Temperatures will dip into the 50s for lows.
Monday...
Even though the upper low will be farther southeast, mid and high
level moisture will continue to flow into the forecast area. Will
continue with partly cloudy skies. Moisture will be thinner though,
so more sunshine will break through. This will push highs into the
lower and middle 80s.
&&
.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023
Monday Night Through Thursday.
Generally dry and quiet conditions are expected for much of the work
week next week with only small chances for pulse thunderstorms
during peak heating. A broad and weak ridge of high pressure will be
in place by Monday and is expected to remain in place through the
week. This will bring summer conditions to central Indiana as highs
climb to near 90 by Wednesday. The PBL will deepen to over 6kft
Tuesday through Thursday with a weak cap at the top of the boundary
layer which will limit convective initiation but leave a fairly
robust field of diurnal cu each afternoon, especially on Wednesday.
The instability parameters look slightly move favorable than models
had been showing the last few days with slightly steeper lapse rates
above the PBL which will lead to brief periods where CAPE may reach
over 1000 J/kg, but any storm will still have to break through the
week cap. Air quality issues are likely for Tuesday and Wednesday
with a stagnant air pattern and plenty of sunshine.
Friday Through Sunday.
Little change is expected Friday into the weekend with hot but not
humid conditions. By Friday most areas will reach 90 with 90s
expected again on Saturday. Flow aloft remains weak and with the
very stagnant airmass in place, air quality concerns will continue
into the weekend. Afternoon RH values will fall to around 30
percent but with little wind, the fire threat will be somewhat
limited.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023
Impacts:
* No impacts expected
Discussion:
Moisture flowing around an upper low will keep mid and high clouds
across all TAF sites through the period. The lowest ceilings, still
above 6000FT, will be near KBMG and KIND. Expect light winds to
remain out of a northeasterly direction through tomorrow, with wind
speeds going calm at times overnight. OVerall, no aviation impacts
expected over the next 24 to 30 hours.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...CM
Short Term...50
Long Term...White
Aviation...CM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
744 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Through tonight)
Issued at 229 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an elongated mid-level
anticyclone extending from Lake Superior to the Lwr Great Lakes.
Associated very dry air mass remains over Upper MI, though there has
been some increase in higher level moisture today compared to
yesterday as reflected in water vapor imagery and 12z KGRB sounding.
Per 12z KGRB sounding, extremely dry air persists at lower levels
btwn 850-700mb where dwpt depressions reach 40-45C. Sunny skies
today have been interrupted by some ci cloudiness moving n and ne
across Upper MI. Under the mainly sunny skies and dry air mass,
temps have risen into the upper 70s to mid 80s F in the interior,
but with a weaker pres gradient today, lake breeze off of Lake
Superior has pushed farther inland this aftn. Even though the winds
behind the lake breeze front near the lake are very light, cooling
has been more substantial than yesterday with lakeside temps this
aftn in the mid 50s to lwr 60s F. RH in the interior has again
plummeted to the teens pct. Fortunately, winds are light, keeping
the elevated wildfire conditions from being more of an issue.
Another quiet night is expected tonight. With a dry air mass
lingering and winds falling off to calm in the interior, favored the
lowest guidance for min temps. Expect temps to fall to the upper
30s/lwr 40s F. Temps will range up to around 50F w to n central
where a light southerly wind will be stirring.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023
Ridging brings summer-like weather with above normal temps and below
normal precip through the end of the extended period. This summer
weather will be perfect for grilling, dipping toes in the cold lake
water, or getting swarmed by recent mosquito hatches. The primary
weather hazard is fire weather concerns through Wednesday, but a
pulsey shower or storm is possible far west on Wed with more
widespread chances Thursday and Friday. It seems likely that most
places will stay dry though.
The same surface/upper level ridge that has been centered over lower
MI for days continues to gradually weaken and shift east through mid-
week. Southerly winds increase on Tue/Wed advecting a warmer air
mass into the area, but think moisture and associated cloud cover
will be delayed by an extra day. These stronger southerly winds and
somewhat more cloud cover should prevent nighttime lows from
dropping as much Tue-Thu nights. Overall, highs should climb to
around 90F each day with lows generally around 60F. At this time,
Wednesday through Thursday night seems to be the warmest 48 hour
stretch, but precip chances could influence that. Compared to the
past couple days, its increasingly difficult to identify the
previously modeled cool front that was scheduled for Wed/Thu.
Ensemble means show a decent signal for measurable rainfall across
the western UP by the end of the week, but individual ensemble
members show more isolated activity. Increasing moisture and
continued hot weather should result in some lake-breeze/mesoscale
activity. Considering the recent dry stretch and lack of synoptic
forcing, it seems most places will stay dry. Fortunately, RH
values seem to be somewhat higher than previously expected this
weekend.
While it`s currently beyond the extended forecast time frame there
has been a fairly consistent ensemble signal for a more significant
cold front early next week (Jun 5-6). Since moisture pools ahead of
this front for several days, there seems to be a decent chance for
widespread precip. A much cooler high pressure system appears to
build behind this front, probably resulting in renewed fire wx
concerns ... especially if the front doesn`t bring widespread rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 744 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023
With persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes region
maintaining a very dry air mass overhead, VFR and light winds will
prevail thru this fcst period at IWD/CMX/SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2023
Expect light winds of 20 kts or less to dominate the fcst period
over Lake Superior as high pressure continues to stubbornly hold
over the Upper Great Lakes. A few thunderstorms are possible over
the western portions of the lake Tuesday through Thursday, with the
precip being diurnal in nature. Southerly winds increase to 15-20
knots Tuesday and Wednesday nights, especially across the east half.
A weak front may push across the lake on Thursday with NE winds
developing behind it, but confidence in this FroPa remains low.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...EK
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...EK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
The primary shift of the convection in the Texas panhandle is now
to move southeast, although there is still enough convection on
the northeast side of this area that some of this will likely
brush into west central/southwest Oklahoma or western north Texas.
There is still a decent signal of additional convection
developing in the western Oklahoma, east of the current area of
storms later tonight, although it may not be quite as widespread
as earlier thought with the primary complex this evening moving
more southeast. Still it looks to be worth keeping chance POPs in
with this new convection likely spreading east in the morning
hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
There is a potential for showers and strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon through the evening hours across
far western Oklahoma. However, the thunderstorm activity will be
conditional based on afternoon heating, capping strength/convective
inhibition, and the earlier & ongoing MCV activity across the
western half of our CWA currently moving into central Oklahoma.
A shortwave propagating through our weak upper ridge over the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles will be moving across our western CWA
by this evening, and continue it`s eastward progression through
Monday. With the dryline still stretched across eastern New Mexico
& Colorado, still plenty of moisture available to fuel any
convection across our area with ample ascent. Model soundings
showing some weak elevated instability with the passing shortwave,
sufficient enough for showers and weak convection across our
area. Models consistent showing moderate surface based instability
with SBCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon, with only
the NAM breaking the cap. Latest satellite imagery showing
gradual clearing & sun across our west by mid afternoon which is
also consistent with the latest HRRR & NAM, although both models
fill clouds back in after sundown. Should our western CWA get
enough sun/heating this afternoon, then the NAM solution of
breaking the cap would be possible resulting in convective
initiation. Although mid to upper level flow is weak, low- level
flow will increase with the jet strongest at 850 mb with its
maxima over our western CWA keeping any storms that develop
organized into the evening. Another possible caveat would a
weakening of the instability needed due to the ongoing MCV, which
could lower the severe risk. For this forecast, will go with the
NAM solution with a risk of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into the evening hours
across western Oklahoma and a small portion of adjacent western
north Texas, with damaging winds and hail as the severe hazards.
Any storms that develop would be slow moving and producing heavy
rainfall, so still see an additional hazard for flooding, although
it would be isolated and localized. Although the severe risk is
conditional, have better confidence for rain across our western
CWA with the shortwave disturbance, but likely to start
dissipating in areas east of I-35 bu sunrise Monday with more
scattered rain through the rest of the morning. Late afternoon
heating on Sunday may reinitiate convection across southeast
through portions of central Oklahoma, although some uncertainty
based on the abundance of cloudcover expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Upper flow across the country still in a blocking pattern through
mid-week, with cut-off lows on the West & East Coasts with weak
ridging inbetween. A series of shortwave disturbances passing
through the ridge down from Kansas will keep storm POPs across the
eastern half of Oklahoma on Tuesday & Wednesday affecting our far
eastern CWA counties. Upper ridging building up from Texas should
keep the remainder of our CWA dry through mid-week.
By Wednesday, the upper low off the West Coast gets recaptured by a
weak trough and start digging into the Southwestern Region of the
country as rain/storm chances return back into our western CWA.
Expecting the trough to become larger in amplitude by the end of the
week as it starts moving into our area, further increasing
rain/storm chances into the weekend. So far, not anticipating any
severe weather for next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Expect to see some showers/thunderstorms overnight across western
and potentially into central Oklahoma, and another wave of storms
developing on Monday afternoon across central and into eastern
Oklahoma. Away from thunderstorms, conditions will mostly be VFR,
but some local MVFR ceilings will likely develop Monday morning,
even apart from showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 62 81 62 83 / 40 40 10 20
Hobart OK 61 83 62 86 / 40 20 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 63 83 62 86 / 30 30 10 0
Gage OK 59 83 61 87 / 30 10 20 0
Ponca City OK 62 82 63 84 / 40 40 30 30
Durant OK 65 83 63 87 / 60 50 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
459 PM MST Sun May 28 2023
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and near to below normal temperatures will persist through next
weekend. Breezy to locally windy conditions during the
afternoon/evenings will also continue for the several days. A slight
cooling trend is expected during the middle and latter portions of
next week as weak disturbances slide through the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest RAP analysis depicts a short-wave ridge building across
the Desert Southwest. Under clear skies, temperatures are running
a few degrees higher than this time yesterday. Meanwhile, further
upstream, latest water vapor imagery reveals a compact low
pressure system off the central California coast.
The region will be situated between the aforementioned low to our
west and ridge to our east Monday, resulting in a dry
southwesterly flow. With the increased meridional component to the
flow, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler to the west
across southern California, while across central and eastern
Arizona, conditions will be somewhat warmer.
Ensemble consensus indicates the low will drift eastward and into
northern Arizona by Wednesday providing a favorable setup for
widespread breezy/windy conditions each afternoon. The strongest
winds are anticipated across the Imperial Valley, where gusts
could reach 35-45 mph Wednesday afternoon. ECMWF EFIs have trended
higher over the past few runs, but still only peak at 50 percent
for El Centro, which is likely a reflection of the spread in the
ensemble system. Meanwhile, further east across the Phoenix area,
gusts of 20-25 mph are 80% likely each afternoon Monday-Wednesday.
A discernible drop in temperatures is also expected Wednesday as
heights lower in response to the approaching upper low. The below
normal temperatures will persist into Thursday and Friday as
another eastern Pacific vort max migrates eastward and reinforces
the lower heights. Latest NBM indicates there is even a 15-20
percent chance the high temperature will fail to reach the 90
degree mark in Phoenix Thursday. Ensembles all suggest a rebound
in temperatures next weekend as the negative height anomalies
retreat. Otherwise, conditions will remain seasonably dry with no
chance of rain.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2358Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF
period. Winds through the period will mostly remain light, aob 10
kts, outside of afternoon breeziness. Directions will generally
favor diurnal tendencies, though a period of southerly winds is
likely to develop once again by late morning on Monday before
veering toward the W/SW. Clear skies will persist.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Westerly winds will once again set in at KIPL this evening, with
some gusts to around 20 kts possible, before weakening. At KBLH,
winds will continue to favor a southerly component with
afternoon/evening gusts to around 20 kts. Clear skies will
continue through the next 24 hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably dry and breezy conditions will predominate across the
Desert Southwest through next weekend. Periods of windy conditions
are also anticipated, particularly across Imperial County each
afternoon and evening through Wednesday. Consequently, this will
result in elevated fire danger for some areas including
southeastern California and portions of Arizona.
Improving conditions are anticipated by Thursday as a low
pressure system brings a return to below normal temperatures. A
second weak low will also bring a slight uptick in moisture,
though rain chances remain near zero. Winds are also expected to
be weaker late in the week and into the weekend, though some
afternoon and early evening breeziness will persist.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Updated 150 AM MST 5/27/2023
GILA: Ongoing releases from Painted Rock Dam continue to travel down
the Gila River through Yuma County. These releases will continue to
impact unbridged crossings with multiple roads remaining closed due
to flooding. The latest USGS gauge observation along the Gila River
near Dateland has fallen more than 1.5 ft below action stage over
the last few days, with the most recent reading being 6.46 ft.
Further downstream, the USGS gauge near Dome/Yuma is very slowly
declining, but remains above action stage (20 ft) with the latest
reading of 20.45 ft. Despite the declines, and one gauge falling
below action stage, will maintain the current Flood Warnings
downstream from Painted Rock Dam until improvement of impacts can be
confirmed with officials. The Flood Warnings remain in effect
through May 30th.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
HYDROLOGY...Benedict