Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/26/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
655 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Two additional rounds of severe thunderstorm and localized flood
potential are ahead during the evening and early overnight hours
both Thursday and Friday. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary concerns both days with flooding concerns focused on
developed areas and locations that have already received multiple
rounds of rainfall.
19z WV satellite readily shows two shortwaves of interest - one over
W OK and the other over the Sangre de Cristos. Visible satellite
shows and expanding field of flat cumulus. Surface observations show
temperatures mainly in the 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
This afternoon into tonight, expect another round of convection. Due
to the aforementioned cumulus field remaining flat thus far,
suppressed ascent in the eastern Panhandles due to the influence of
the W OK shortwave, and the later arrival of the shortwave to our
west, expect convection to largely hold off until after 7pm, when
thunderstorms look to spread northwest to southeast across the CWA.
This outcome is in line with many consecutive runs of the HRRR,
latest NSSL WoFS convective allowing ensemble, and 12z NAM. Have
moved away from NBM PoPs toward the HRRR as NBM PoPs seem to be
heavily contaminated by GFS/RAP which suggest light showers and/or
drizzle have been occurring all day in the eastern Panhandles, an
outcome which has almost totally failed to be borne out. As for
potential hazards, with MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk
shear values of around 30 knots, severe thunderstorms could occur.
That said, the low end supportive shear should limit the overall top
end severe potential to around golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind
gusts. Due to the late arrival of convection, while cold pool
dynamics could still force down a severe wind gust, surface
stabilization should lead to a very slim tornado risk. Finally,
given PWAT values of 1"+ and slow expected storm motions, localized
flooding could occur in cities and town and in locations that have
received heavier rain on previous days.
Tomorrow, with a weak upper ridge reducing in prominence, expect an
uptick in wind speeds aloft. Thus, while the pattern looks to be
similar to today in which a later arriving shortwave leads to
thunderstorms generally occurring after 7pm, increase in shear may
lead to a bit higher top end severe potential compared to Thursday,
with hailstones greater than 2" in diameter possible and a small
risk for tornadoes, particularly if convection arrives closer to 7pm
rather than later for optimal timing with respect to surface
stabilization and the increase in the LLJ. While storm motions
should also be a bit quicker, rich moisture and antecedent
conditions suggest a continued risk for localized flooding.
Ferguson
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Showers and thunderstorms look like a pretty good bet on Saturday as
the flow aloft strengthens and another short wave trough moves over
the region in the southwest flow aloft. Rain chances may actually
decrease some Sunday through Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds
over the area. Any short waves will be weaker and the shear will be
weaker, so coverage of storms are expected to go down during these
days. Not to say that we will not have any rain at all. We just
are not expecting a large complex of storms to move across the area
without the upper level support. Showers and storms may become more
widespread again by next Wednesday as the upper level southwest flow
increase again. Another stronger short wave trough may also move
over on Wednesday.
Highs will generally remain slightly below normal in the 70`s and
lower 80`s Saturday through next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Overall, VFR conditions expected for the early part of the TAF
period, but will drop to MVFR/IFR with storms approaching the TAF
sites from 02-07z tonight. Have done the best with prevailing 3
hours of TSRA, but will likely be amending at the timing gets a
bit more certain. But slower storm motion certainly could have at
least 2 to 3 hours of TSRA as the storms expand in coverage.
Overnight cigs may still hold MVFR to IFR under back side
stratiform rain with isolated thunderstorms embedded. Will not not
thunder after the main push of storms as confidence is too low.
Weber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 58 71 58 74 / 90 60 50 60
Beaver OK 59 74 58 76 / 60 60 50 60
Boise City OK 54 72 55 74 / 50 40 50 40
Borger TX 61 73 60 78 / 90 60 60 50
Boys Ranch TX 59 75 59 77 / 90 50 70 50
Canyon TX 58 72 58 75 / 80 60 50 60
Clarendon TX 59 74 59 73 / 70 60 50 50
Dalhart TX 54 71 55 74 / 80 50 70 50
Guymon OK 57 72 57 75 / 60 30 60 50
Hereford TX 58 73 57 76 / 60 50 60 60
Lipscomb TX 58 75 57 75 / 60 60 50 50
Pampa TX 59 71 58 74 / 80 60 50 60
Shamrock TX 60 74 59 75 / 60 60 40 50
Wellington TX 60 77 59 77 / 50 50 40 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
956 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
It appears that diurnally increasing MLCIN is greatly reducing the
threat for severe weather across western North Dakota. Chances for
thunderstorms remain in the forecast into the night, with a main
threat of locally heavy rain. MRMS has estimated a very narrow
corridor of 3-4 inches of rain over and just to the south of White
Earth Bay Recreation Area. Any additional rainfall over that area
would be problematic, but observed trends currently favor a very low
chance of a heavier storm there.
The wind forecast has been decreased through Saturday night,
especially during the overnight periods when the NBM has been
exhibiting a significant high bias. It will still be windy across
central and eastern North Dakota during the daytime hours on Friday
and Saturday, but the probability of widespread advisory criteria is
lower than the deterministic NBM guidance would imply. This thinking
is supported by observational comparisons to NBM over the past 24
hours, a mostly stagnant synoptic pattern, and ensemble tools such
as the ECMWF EFI showing no signal for anomalous winds.
UPDATE Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a surface trough that
extends from near Baker, MT to New Town to Portal. The placement of
the trough and storms is slightly farther east than consensus
guidance had previously indicated, but recent runs of the HRRR seem
to be capturing this shift. The 1800 UTC NAMnest correctly had the
trough and storms farther east, but also included a cluster of
storms along the ND/MT border north of the Missouri River that never
materialized. A couple of storms have briefly pulsed to near severe
levels, but the lack of strong effective shear and a messy,
multicellular mode should continue to inhibit a longer duration
severe threat with any given storm.
Stronger mid to upper level forcing ejecting north off the Black
Hills is producing more robust convection over southeast Montana and
northeast Wyoming. As this forcing moves north, it will likely help
sustain convective activity across western North Dakota through the
evening, and possibly shift it slightly back to the west as it takes
over as the primary forcing mechanism. The environment is expected
to remain supportive of only marginally severe storms at worst. The
greatest hazard could be heavy rain, especially with the increased
risk for training convection given storm motions parallel to the
surface boundary. MRMS has already estimated as high as 2 inches of
rain east of Watford City.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Showers and thunderstorms, mainly across western North Dakota,
highlight the short term period.
This afternoon, an upper high was centered over northern
Minnesota, with ridging extending up into the Canadian Prairies.
Upstream troughing was centered over the western CONUS, with a
closed low over eastern Oregon, and sharp south-southwest flow
aloft over the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front was
analyzed north- south over far western North Dakota, with a trough
extending north into eastern Saskatchewan. Windy southeast winds
continue this afternoon from strong southerly low-level flow and a
modest pressure gradient with a broad surface high centered well
to our east.
As a shortwave moves across the surface trough and frontal
boundary, convection is expected to continue developing in eastern
Montana and western North Dakota through the rest of the afternoon
and the evening. With strong southerly flow aloft, storms will be
moving almost straight north. The environment is most supportive
of a strong to severe storm right along the state line, with SPC
mesoanalysis advertising 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and up to 30
knots of 0-6km shear right in this corridor, before shear quickly
decreases to the east further into North Dakota. CAMs have been
moderately consistent in developing convection more vigorously in
the upcoming couple of hours, with satellite showing towers
building in far western North Dakota. Given the environment, main
concerns with any strong to severe storm would be hail to the
size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph, but with abnormally
high PWATs, heavy rain is also a hazard. Storm motions are
expected to be a bit higher than they have been the past few days,
but will still have to keep an eye out for training storms and
potentially locally high rainfall amounts.
Precipitation chances are expected to stay limited to western and
maybe into far north central North Dakota this evening through the
night. Breezy southeast winds will continue through the night and
help keep lows mild, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A similar day is expected on Friday as the upper air pattern stays
consistent and there is not much movement on surface features. The
expectation is for a break in shower/thunderstorm activity through
the morning and into the afternoon before chances increase again
late afternoon and through the evening, expanding west to east,
although chances stay very low in our eastern counties. The
environment is similar as well, with generally 1000 J/kg of
instability and weak shear. The area at risk of a few strong to
severe storms is again across western North Dakota. Highs will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Warm and unsettled weather is expected through the holiday weekend
and into next work week.
The general expectation from ensemble members is for the upper high
to slide east over the Great Lakes region on Saturday, while
troughing continues to extend south to be based over the Nevada/Utah
region. Southwest flow aloft over the Dakotas supports an active
pattern. Slightly more substantial waves are expected on Saturday
and Sunday, with blended guidance producing widespread 60 to 70%
chances of showers and thunderstorms across much of western and
parts of central North Dakota during the afternoon and evening
hours both days.
CSU machine learning probabilities continue to highlight Saturday
with the highest potential for severe thunderstorms, with the focus
on southwest North Dakota for severe hail. There are some
differences among deterministic guidance, but the consensus is for
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, with 0-6 km shear forecast around 20-30
knots. Highest PoPs are consistently in the west and north
central, decreasing to the east.
The upper air pattern looks to become more diffuse later in the
weekend and into next week, as some ensemble members tilt the trough
positive and even close off a low over California, leading to
flow aloft over the Dakotas becoming weaker and a bit more zonal
upstream of persisting ridging over the eastern CONUS. More
confidence exists in a general active pattern and warmer than
normal temperatures, with low predictability in precipitation
chances next week. The general expectation is for chances for
showers and thunderstorms to be highest in the afternoon and
evening, decreasing late at night and through the morning before
increasing again the next day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 954 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Scattered thunderstorms will continue across far western North
Dakota this evening. The storms are likely to remain west of KDIK,
but could move over KXWA between 03Z and 06Z. Ceilings are likely
to remain VFR under any storm, but visibility could drop as low
as IFR. The strongest storms may produce gusty, erratic winds, and
small hail. Most terminals will see southerly winds continue
around 10-15 kts through the forecast period, becoming slightly
higher and gusty Friday afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms
could begin developing across western North Dakota Friday
afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...Jones
LONG TERM...Jones
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
841 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Not much to change with the forecast update this evening as very
slow moving thundershowers continue to push to the east in
southeast Wyoming. Heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches per hour
have been estimated by radar, and we have been highlighted by the
Weather Prediction Center across portions of our cwa to see
continued thundershowers with moderate to heavy rainfall at times.
The severe weather threat is gone, but instability combined with
outflow boundaries and high levels of moisture will continue to
provide ample opportunities for rainfall where it occurs. Hi-res
models (HRRR) have pinpointed the convection lasting through
approximately 9Z as it propagates to the east into the NE
Panhandle overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Saturday Night)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Showers are thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity across southeast Wyoming through the late afternoon into
the early evening hours, aided by strong low-level convergence and
dynamic support associated with multiple weak disturbances and PVA
aloft. High-res guidance is in good agreement with the majority of
this activity staying in southeast Wyoming through 00z. Increasing
low-level WAA after 06z on the nose of a 35 knot southeasterly low
level jet may contribute to elevated convective development across
the western Nebraska Panhandle overnight, mainly focused invof the
Platte River Valley. The overall severe threat this evening should
be quite low w/ limited shear suggesting pulse-type storms, but w/
MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg some storms may briefly produce small
to marginally severe hail. Gusty winds may also accompany decaying
storms in particular. SPC Mesoscale Analysis & future RAP suggests
increasing surface relative vorticity along numerous boundaries in
southeast Wyoming over the next few hours, along w/ upwards of 150
J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE and good stretching potential. This is similar
to last evening, although the Non-Supercell Tornado Parameter will
not be nearly as high. Nonetheless, environmental conditions could
lead to landspout development w/ a few updrafts, especially across
Platte/Goshen/Laramie counties through early evening.
The overall potential for widespread strong to severe storms could
increase markedly on Friday w/ continued moisture return resulting
in surface dew points climbing into the mid/upper 50s to near 60 F
over the western Nebraska Panhandle w/ lower 50s extending west to
the I-25 corridor. Steepening mid-level lapse rates in response to
cooling aloft associated with multiple disturbances should support
CAPEs up to 2000 J/kg. Deep layer vertical shear is not progged to
be particularly strong. However, veering low-level wind profiles &
deep southwesterly mid & upper-level flow oriented parallel to the
surface front should support storm organization. Expect convective
activity to initially develop over western reaches of the CWA over
Carbon County by early afternoon, intensifying and also increasing
in coverage as it moves eastward into the moderately unstable air-
mass present to the east of the Laramie Range after 3 PM. Profiles
appear to support upscale growth into one or more convective storm
complexes likely capable of severe hail and/or wind. Multiple high
resolution model cycles have suggested bowing line segments, so do
think high winds may be the primary concern with a multicell storm
mode. Deep layer shear profiles do not appear to support supercell
structures at this time. Confidence is low regarding the potential
severity of this event, but no doubt it will be quite busy through
the mid/late afternoon and early evening.
Status quo for Saturday w/ the same general weather pattern likely
to remain in place.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday - Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Heading into the second half of the weekend, the shortwave will
eject out of the longwave trough over the west coast, and the
retrograding position is expected to lead to more westerly flow
aloft. This will result in decreased moisture both at the surface
and in the column integrated sense for Sunday, Monday, and possibly
Tuesday. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean PW values drop to near or
slightly below climatological norms for Sunday and Monday. Thus,
expect lesser storm coverage and lower precipitation amounts these
days, with a little more sunshine likely. That being said, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still likely, but
coverage and strength should be less than what we see in the next
few days. Still will have to watch for locally gusty winds and small
hail as always. While 700-mb temperatures are expected to remain
nearly constant for much of the forecast period, did increase the
diurnal range by nudging highs up a degree or two, and lows down a
degree or two on Sunday and Monday to account for the drier
atmosphere and clearer skies.
Models have come into better agreement on showing the west coast
trough developing into a closed low aloft by midweek next week, and
as this slowly meanders eastward, we should see the flow aloft turn
more southerly once again and boost moisture again. Ensemble PW
values climb again Tuesday through Thursday. NAEFS mean PW exceeds
the 90th percentile of climatology once again by late Wednesday
across portions of the area. Thus, have PoPs increasing again above
50% for the midweek period. Temperatures are still expected to hold
fairly steady through this period, about 5 degrees above
climatological norms. A few models show cooler temperatures (but
still not anywhere near freezing) on Thursday as the cutoff low
ejects over the area, but a forecast of a cutoff low on day 7 has
considerable uncertainty, so won`t put too much stock in this yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Wyoming Terminals...
VFR conditions currently at all terminals and is expected to
remain through the 00Z TAF period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of southeast Wyoming.
Included VCTS for KCYS and KLAR through around 03Z as the storms
move out of the area by then. KRWL has VCSH, as thunderstorm
activity looks to remain further east. Winds are gusty across the
terminals, but will begin to decrease over the next few hours and
remain low through the night. Gusty and erratic winds are possible
in and around any thunderstorms.
Nebraska Terminals...
VFR conditions at all terminals expected to remain over the next
several hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
across the Panhandle late this evening, so included VCTS at KBFF
and KSNY with VCSH at KCDR. During the early morning hours,
ceilings will drop to IFR at KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA with MVFR
conditions at KCDR. KSNY and KAIA may approach LIFR conditions.
Additionally, some fog is possible across all terminals in the
morning hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Minimal fire weather concerns continue for the next several days
due to higher humidity and daily chances for wetting rains.
Humidity below 20% is possible in the lower elevations of Carbon
county for the next several days, but fuels remain in green-up
status. Otherwise, expect very high RH east of the Laramie range
for the next few mornings and scattered to numerous afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty or erratic winds. Slightly drier
air is expected Sunday through Tuesday, so will see lower
afternoon RH (but still mostly over 20 to 25%), and less
widespread precipitation for those days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Warm temperatures will continue to lead to snowmelt in areas above
about 9000 where significant snowpack still lingers. Minor flood
stage continues to be reached each morning along the Little Snake
River near Dixon and Baggs and this is expected to continue for
the next several days. A Flood Warning remains in effect until
further notice. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the North
Platte River at Saratoga and Sinclair. The river remains in action
stage at Saratoga, but is no longer forecast to reach minor flood
stage as of the latest forecast from the RFC. Will let the Flood
Watch continue for now due to uncertainty regarding rainfall over
the next few days, but may be able to let this go by the weekend
if rainfall ends up on the low end. Action stage has also been
reached on the Encampment river, and this is forecast to continue
through the weekend. The Laramie river at Laramie is also forecast
to reach action stage this weekend.
There are also concerns for burn scar flash flooding through
Saturday with daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms that could produce locally heavy rainfall.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BW
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...AM
FIRE WEATHER...MN
HYDROLOGY...MN
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
743 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 740 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
A gradual warming trend will kick of the holiday weekend, with
dry conditions continuing through the first part of next week.
Chances for isolated showers will return by late Wednesday,
though organized thunderstorms appear unlikely anytime soon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Forecast is generally on track this evening. Northeast wind gusts
have been easing up a bit as we get close to sunset. Air mass
remains quite dry this hour with many locations still seeing
humidity values of 20-25%, though winds remain elevated enough
(likely around 10 mph) to keep temperatures from completely
cratering overnight. However, lows in the mid to upper 40s will
prevail.
Geelhart
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
<<<<<<< Key Messages >>>>>>>
1. The air mass remains dry leading to vast diurnal temperature
swings the next couple days.
2. Highs remain near to slightly below normal tomorrow.
With dry (dewpoint depressions on the order of 35 degrees)
northeast flow continuing this evening, temps at 130 PM remain
near to slightly sub seasonable in the low 70s. The mid and high
level clouds streaming southward from northern Illinois continue
to dissipate as they approach the central portion of the state,
which implies we`ll get a little more warming before the
afternoon`s over. Nonetheless, the cold advection in the wake of
the front which moved through last night will keep most of the
area (except possible the far southwest) from exceeding 75-77
degF for highs. Given dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 30s,
and the absence of any clouds, the only thing standing in the way
of an efficient night of radiational cooling would be winds which
are currently forecast to stay around 4-7 kt. If those drop off,
we`ll have no problem cooling into the mid to perhaps even lower
40s by sunrise.
Guidance is suggesting tomorrow will be slightly warmer, with the
mean of both the EPS and GEFS ensembles near 80 for highs area-wide.
NBM suggests a ~75% probability for highs greater than 75 and even a
~40% chance for reaching 80 degF. As with today, temps may
overperform slightly given the dry (and hence susceptible to rapid
thermodynamic changes) air mass and lack of clouds. HREF suggests
tomorrow afternoon we`ll be a bit drier than today as well with
55- 60% of the ensemble forecasting RHs less than 30% at KAAA; the
HRRR even suggests RHs briefly as low as the mid teens. We`ll
need to monitor this closely to assess fire weather danger, but at
this time with 10h fuel moisture > 10% and winds expected to
remain sub 20mph we should be able to do without any headlines.
Bumgardner
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
<<<<<<< Forecast Highlights >>>>>>>
1. Warming temperature trend expected, with 90 degree temps possible
(60% chance) by Wednesday.
2. 30% chance for showers/thunderstorms by Wednesday evening.
The rex blocking pattern with a trough in the southeast states and
an upper high in the northeast and Great Lakes is forecast to be
ongoing at the start of the extended forecast period...and, aside
from the upper features becoming increasingly washed out with time
(as is typically the case), cluster analysis suggests little change
throughout the extended. The mean of the ensemble forecast for
500hPa heights has everything shifting ever-so-gradually east,
though, which would favor increasing temps as mid level flow
switches from east-southeast to south-southwest over central
Illinois. Each deterministic model, along with its respective
ensemble, thus depicts increasing 850mb temps - especially to our
west across the High Plains where multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are expected next week. NBM`s 75th percentile
increases from the mid 80s Saturday to upper 90s by next Wednesday
and Thursday - implying some potential for an early season
heatwave across the region. However, (1) there is a bias in which
the high end of NBM`s probability distribution tends to run a bit
hot this time of year, (2) if there is any convective debris or
elevated wildfire smoke that drifts overhead from the west temps
would be several degrees cooler than forecast, and (3) the
deterministic GFS and CMC each show splotchy QPF across the area
by Wednesday evening, likely from diurnally-driven "pop-up"
convection which could also hold o19ur highs at or below the
forecast which for now brings highs, possibly conservatively, into
the lower 90s by Wednesday. The GFS even shows some light QPF
dotting a portion of the area Tuesday, so we may not be entirely
dry, though if garden variety air mass thunderstorms are the
culprit for the QPF signal in guidance the distribution of
precipitation amounts will be uneven and hence many folks who
could benefit the rain are likely to go without it.
Bumgardner
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours, as remaining high clouds
fade away and mostly clear skies prevail. Northeast winds have
been a bit gusty this afternoon, but will fade soon with sunset.
However, sustained speeds around 10 knots or so will continue
through Friday afternoon.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
646 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
The atmosphere is still fairly worked over from last night`s
convection. This is evident by current visible satellite imagery
with widespread popcorn cu. Surface temps at 130 PM are in the mid
70s area wide. They should continue to slowly climb through the
afternoon. Convection has already begun to develop across the Rotan
Ridge in New Mexico. This convection is expected to push slowly to
the east-southeastward through the late afternoon before pushing
into the Texas Panhandle. Models have been somewhat scattered with
their portrayal in tonight`s convection, including the CAMs. Most
develop an MCS across northeastern New Mexico and move it into the
Texas Panhandle. Beyond that, solutions vary from keeping precip
across the Texas Panhandle, pushing the MCS southeastward into the
Rolling Plains, pushing the MCS into both the South Plains and
Rolling Plains, and developing a line across eastern New Mexico and
pushing it eastward across the Texas Panhandle and the South Plains
(the least likely outcome). Much of the issue is centered on the
upper ridge and where the models initiate the upper ridge. Current
observations have the upper ridge slightly more westward than what
was initialized in most models. This would result in northwesterly
upper flow and would allow for the MCS to take a more southeasterly
path later tonight and somewhat mirror last night`s MCS. The HRRR
has latched on to this scenario over the past 2 runs. Currently the
HRRR is more favored, but for now PoPs will be kept below the likely
category given the many possible outcomes. The severe threat is less
than yesterday with the main threats being wind gusts up to 60 mph
and possibly hail up to the size of quarters. Convection is expected
to be ongoing across portions of the Rolling Plains tomorrow morning
before dissipating and pushing off to our east. Convection is likely
to develop again in eastern New Mexico during the late afternoon
before reaching our western zones by the early evening. Storms will
continue to be limited in forward speed due to the overhead ridge. A
slow forward speed along with high available moisture will allow a
continued risk for heavy downpours and localized flash flooding both
tonight and tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
While there remains some discrepancy amongst the models regarding an
upper level short wave trough rotating out of the Desert Southwest
and northern Mexico late in the weekend, the trend remains toward
the trough passing east to the Rolling Plains or beyond in the
Sunday/Monday time frame. This will continue to result in lower PoPs
and thunderstorm mention focused more toward the eastern half to
third of the forecast area. The return of a dirty ridge Wednesday
with diurnally-driven convection on the upstream side of the ridge
axis across eastern New Mexico that then moves into the forecast
area is expected toward the end of the forecast period Wednesday and
Thursday. NBM temperatures continue to look fine. All-in-all, the
blend has been accepted with only some minor adjustments to
precipitation chances made at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
VFR ceilings prevail until early tomorrow morning when MVFR
ceilings will move in at PVW/LBB. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms are possible again but timing is much later into the
morning hours tomorrow. Confidence on timing of the line of
storms, so a tempo group was used as a best guess for the higher
confidence sites of PVW/LBB. Confidence is lower on storm extent
east towards the CDS site, so have opted for a period of vicinity
thunderstorms at this time. With any thunderstorms, winds may
become erratic strong wind gusts. MVFR ceilings should lift
through the late morning and VFR conditions will return to all
three TAF sites through the afternoon.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
544 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
As has been the case the last several days, weak flow and MCV`s
meandering about the area have led to scattered slow-moving showers
and thunderstorms. Activity will likely weaken with loss of
daytime heating early this evening, with renewed shower and storm
chances across our western counties late tonight into Friday
morning as high plains convection once again approaches.
Instability will be rather weak today and tonight, so
thunderstorms are expected to remain subsevere, however localized
heavy rainfall and flooding could be a concern given slow storm
motions. Redevelopment of isolated showers/storms will once again
be possible tomorrow afternoon, with higher chances in the western
half of the area.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
The combination of shortwave ridging overhead and drier air
advecting into the area on the backside of an upper low to our east
will lead to precipitation chances retreating westward on
Saturday, mainly across western Oklahoma and western north Texas
on the western periphery of the upper ridge as high plains
convection potentially moves out of the panhandles. Rain chances
may expand a bit further eastward on Sunday as models depict the
potential for an MCV to drift into the area, but confidence in
this scenario is low. Shear and instability remain rather weak so
severe weather is not expected.
As we head into next week, model guidance suggests that the cutoff
low over the southeastern US will begin to shift eastward, but our
area will continue to see very weak mid-upper level flow as the
southwestern US trough remains parked well to our west. Slightly
better surface moisture and a weakening of the upper ridge over the
local area should allow for isolated to scattered
shower/thunderstorm activity to return to more of the area Monday
through the middle of next week, but chances for organized severe
weather continue to be very low through the period given such weak
flow aloft and only modest instability. Temperatures will remain
near or below normal through much of next week.
Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Light E/SE winds are expected tonight with some reduction in cloud
cover possible. Broken to overcast mid-level to high-level clouds
then stream in by early Friday morning. Decaying thunderstorm
complex could move across the Texas panhandle and enter western
Oklahoma by mid-morning. However, the HRRR model has trended
slower with this rain shield and uncertainty is high on timing and
whether it will reach Oklahoma. Have left out of TAFs for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 62 80 61 79 / 10 10 10 10
Hobart OK 60 79 60 78 / 20 30 20 30
Wichita Falls TX 63 84 63 81 / 10 20 10 10
Gage OK 58 74 59 77 / 60 70 40 50
Ponca City OK 61 82 58 81 / 20 20 10 10
Durant OK 62 85 62 84 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Key Messages:
1) Scattered storms this evening, a few severe storms possible
across the plains.
2) Another day with severe thunderstorms possible for the southeast
plains on Friday.
Currently, another day of weak shear (0-6km 20-30 kts) but strong
instability (CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG) across the area, with
convection firing over the eastern mountains and along a weak
surface boundary (stretching from near TAD to just south of LHX) as
of mid-afternoon. Most CAMs move storms eastward from the higher
terrain across the plains this evening, though perhaps in a less
organized fashion as last night, as dynamic lift today is less
pronounced. Still a low end severe threat for most of the plains
into the evening, with HRRR suggesting some storms along the Palmer
Divide after sunset until close to midnight. Convection farther west
over the mountains and interior valleys has been weaker/more
isolated in nature, and expect most storms here to diminish this
evening. Will maintain high end sct pops for locations east of the
mountains until late evening, then taper precip chances off from
west to east toward midnight.
On Friday, upper level swly flow continues across CO, with perhaps a
subtle increase in mid/upper level winds by late day as jet streak
noses into the swrn part of the state. Over the eastern mountains
and plains, moist/unstable air mass will remain in place, leading to
another round of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, though orientation
of the upper jet suggests best dynamic forcing may shift north of
the Palmer Divide by evening. Again, 0-6km shear looks fairly weak,
in the 25-35 kt range, while instability by afternoon climbs into
the 1000-2000 J/KG range. Marginal risk of severe storms looks
warranted, though strongest storms may end up north of the Palmer if
lastest iteration of the NAM is correct. Farther west over the
mountains and interior valleys, air mass looks slightly drier,
leading to a downturn in convective strength and coverage, though
still at least isolated activity expected. Max temps will remain
little changed from the past couple days.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Key Messages:
1) Heightened chances for daily afternoon rain showers and
thunderstorms for southern Colorado into next week.
2) Near to above average temperatures expected for much of southern
Colorado into next week.
Saturday - Thursday... The weekend and into much of next week
will maintain a rather consistent, but active, weather pattern.
Both deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in strong
agreement about developing an overall, but messy, ridge pattern
across the central US, with broad and disorganized troughing to
the west. Colorado will be situated generally on the western
periphery of the ridging and eastern periphery of the troughing.
This pattern will allow for numerous weak short waves and ripples
in the flow to pass over the southern Colorado region. In addition
to that, given the broader troughing to the west, deeper moisture
is expected to stay further into Colorado, though exact moisture
quality will depend highly on how the waves and ripples in the
flow ultimately evolve. Given all of this, daily chances of
afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the
southern Colorado area each day to some extent. Also, with the
moisture, and therefore instability, expected, along with modest
upticks in shear from the waves and ripples, some stronger storms
are possible across the area, but particularly across the eastern
plains, where moisture will be greatest. As for temperatures, a
more steady state of temperatures is anticipated given the ridging
and no major storm systems/cold fronts. This pattern is expected
to keep much of southern Colorado near to slightly above average
for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
VFR conditions at all terminals the next 24 hrs, though there will
be sct tsra across the area this evening, with storms most numerous
across the southeast plains. Will carry a vcsh at all terminals
until 01z-02z, and may upgrade to a vcts mention at KPUB 22z-02z,
and KCOS 22z-04z, as storms move off the mountains. Most activity
will diminish/shift east toward KS after 03-05z, though HRRR holds
onto some storms until 05z-07z over the higher terrain north of
KCOS. Very little change in the pattern for Friday, with a risk of
afternoon convection again at all terminals after 20z, and the
potential for severe storms around KCOS and KPUB 21z-00z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1031 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will fill in over the central Appalachians tonight.
Low pressure developing off the southeast coast on Friday will track
into the Carolinas by Sunday, bringing rain and below normal
temperatures to the region for the weekend. This low is expected
to move off to sea by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1020 PM EDT Wednesday...
Showers should fade after midnight in southwest VA/NC mtns.
Surface inverted trough with convergent boundary across the
upper TN Valley into southwest VA will linger through midnight
but should wane overnight with showers fading.
Already had some observed precip amounts around a half inch
across Bland and Smyth Counties, but most have been under a
quarter inch.
Fog may very well creep in late tonight if we clear enough but
for now kept it over toward the NC mtns/far SW VA.
Previous discussion...
Expect a few showers this evening in the mountains, then dry...
Notch of higher theta-e along inverted trough across the
southwest VA mountains will keep a few showers, maybe a rumble
of thunder going til 10pm, then expect activity to end. Will
potentially see some fog, however, cloud cover may linger
tonight to prevent this, so for now leaving fog out of the
forecast where it rained.
No other major changes to the forecast.
Previous discussion...
Confidence high for showers this evening...
HRRR and HREF both depict showers forming in southeast West Virginia
this afternoon then expanding past Bluefield into the Mountain
Empire area after 6PM/22Z before dissipating around 03Z/11PM.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this axis, especially
from Bluefield to Richlands. Clouds will clear out of the
mountains overnight. Low clouds behind the cold front were
dissipating as they moved into southern Virginia this
afternoon.
Central and eastern Virginia and North Carolina will be on the
northern fringe of the high clouds swirling around the low
developing off the southeast coast tonight. These clouds will
spread northwest on Friday and will cover much of the Mid
Atlantic region during the afternoon.
Surface dew points will be in the 40s tonight and Friday.
Temperatures will lower faster as the wind speed diminishes
overnight but this drop will be highly dependent on the amount
of clouds. MAximum temperatures on Friday will also be largely
influenced by the timing and opaqueness of the clouds. Using a
ConShort/NBM blend for temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Thursday...
Upper low brings rain for the Memorial Day weekend...
High pressure will continue to wedge south Friday night into
Saturday morning. Meanwhile, surface low will develop Saturday
morning in response to an upper level wave over the southeast
states. This upper wave will eventually close off and the
surface low will move inland by Saturday afternoon. Rain from
this low will push northwest and should arrive by late Saturday
morning and become widespread across the area Saturday night and
continue into Sunday. May see rainfall coverage taper a bit by
Sunday night as the upper low pivots east.
Strong cool air wedging will be firmly in place and being on the
northwest side of the low, expect well below normal temperatures for
Saturday and especially Sunday. Temperatures in the highest
elevations may struggle to reach the lower 50s during the day on
Sunday. As expected, instability will be nearly non-existent so not
expecting any thunder within this period.
Winds will be out of the northeast throughout the period as well,
gusting to as much as 20-30mph at times. This will make for a very
chilly weekend with wind chills (yes, talking wind chills at the end
of May) in the 40s in the higher elevations.
Highest rainfall amounts will be along and east of the Blue Ridge
where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall appears to be likely. Amounts of 1
inch or less west of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Thursday...
Rain chances continue into Memorial Day, but will taper some
throughout the week...
Closed upper low continues to slowly drift east, but it will
eventually pick up some forward speed as ridging builds to the west
and a north Atlantic trough swings south just enough to pick it up
and pull the low into the Atlantic. However, should still see some
rain showers continue, but will become less of a chance each day
through the week. May have a chance for an isolated storm or two
Monday, but after that, dry high pressure wedges south again from
New England and cuts off any chance of instability. Therefore, kept
only showers in the extended.
Ridging builds east somewhat and temperatures begin to warm by later
in the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Thursday...
Think showers will stay in vicinity of BLF/LWB/BCB til 02z, with
potential 2-3kft cigs but mostly VFR.
Also lower cigs at DAN should clear toward 02z.
Clouds will clear out of the mountains overnight from north to
south, though keeping some high clouds around.
Low pressure developing off the southeast coast will likely send
high clouds into the entire area Friday, but no flight
restrictions through 00z/Sat.
Above average confidence in all elements, except average on
vsby/cigs this evening in the mountains.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Saturday, showers will expand northwest, reaching southern
Virginia and KDAN in the morning and southeast West Virginia
and KLWB/KBLF by the end of the day. Widespread IFR to MVFR
conditions are expected Saturday night into Sunday across the
region.
Confidence in sub- VFR ceilings and occasional showers
is rising for Memorial Day as the upper level low continues to
wobble near the Mid Atlantic. Tuesday, long range models take
east, ending the rain. The Memorial Day and Tuesday part of the
forecast are low confidence.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...AMS/WP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
413 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled pattern will continue across northern
Utah through the weekend, while a gradual drying trend continues
across southern Utah.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...A broad trough situated
over the western U.S. has made very little movement over the past
12 hours, bringing yet another rough of showers and thunderstorms
over mainly the northern two-thirds of Utah and southwest Wyoming.
As has been the case for the past couple of days, the threat of
showers and thunderstorms will exist across the region through
roughly sundown, with activity coming to an end overnight. Until
then, the threat of gusty winds in excess of 40 mph, small hail,
and heavy rain leading to potential flash flooding on recent burn
scars will remain.
Through the next 24-36 hours, the axis of the mean trough will
begin shifting into the region and increase the overall broad
synoptic forcing for ascent. With moisture remaining in place over
the lower to mid levels, this increased ascent will provide
better forcing for afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity
across the forecast area (primarily focused on the northern two-
thirds of the area). The most recent (12Z) SPC HREF run continues
to be supportive of anywhere from 250-1000 J/kg/K of CAPE across
mainly the northern two-thirds of the forecast area, however,
18Z HRRR and NAMNest forecasts for 0-6km shear values are
~20-25kts less than today`s values. What this really means is that
while the overall threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will exist again tomorrow, the threat of more organized storms
will be lower... which also lowers the overall threat for hail and
wind hazards.
As a slow progression of this trough occurs through the next 24
hours, lower level flow will increase across the eastern half of
the forecast area. Utah`s eastern valley areas will lack the
surface moisture that has been seen across northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming, which will combine with surface wind gusts in
excess of 25 mph to create an area of critical fire weather
conditions. No headlines will be made at this point in the season
since fuels are still being sampled with a higher than normal fuel
moisture content in this region.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Long term period begins with
the axis of a shortwave trough translating eastward into Utah.
Guidance remains in fair consensus that limited moisture across the
southern third or so of Utah will largely preclude precipitation
potential accordingly. However, from central Utah northward, PWATs
increase such that in combination with modest PVA and diurnal
heating, scattered convective development is expected by late
morning, becoming more widespread through the afternoon hours.
Coverage is expected to be maximized through the northern third or
so of Utah, as well as southwest Wyoming. Convection will then
gradually wane moving into the late evening and overnight hours with
loss of diurnal heating. Aside from the aforementioned precipitation
potential, the trough migrating more into the region will bring a
slight cooldown of a few degrees or so to the northern half of Utah
as well as southwest Wyoming.
By Sunday, initial shortwave ejects out of the region as a
reinforcing shortwave drops southward out of the PacNW into northern
California and western Great Basin. This will continue a messy
southwesterly flow atop the region with embedded energy, leading to
a similar convective trend to that of Saturday. That said, with
modest mid level height rises noted, expect a bit less overall
coverage. Additionally, will see 700mb temps nudge upwards as the
initial trough departs, resulting in the start of another gradual
warmup that will continue on into the upcoming week for the northern
half of the forecast region.
From Monday onward into midweek, the aforementioned shortwave begins
to close off along the California coast, with uncertainty increasing
due to low confidence and diverging model solutions in regards to
its subsequent motion and evolution thereafter. For Monday and
Tuesday, local forecast region is largely expected to remain between
this feature and ridging through the southern Plains. In turn,
warming trend continues, and afternoon convection will remain
possible (~15-30% chance) from central Utah northward during the
afternoon hours. The remainder of the forecast period sees guidance
diverge further, and thus lower confidence is noted, but for now
expect similar trends/pattern to that of the last several days.
With subcloud layers remaining fairly dry, convection most days will
be capable of gusty erratic outflow winds. Additionally, any
thunderstorms that form, especially more mature thunderstorms, will
be capable of periodic frequent lightning and heavy rain, and those
planning outdoor recreation should remain weather aware accordingly.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal
through the TAF period outside of any thunderstorm activity. Breezy
northerly winds stick around as showers and isolated thunderstorms
move across northern Utah. Precipitation lingers into the overnight
hours before drying up with a brief period of winds flipping back to
the south. Similar conditions return on Friday with mostly
persistent northerly flow and vicinity showers and storms.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist at
the all terminals in Utah and SW Wyoming through the TAF period
outside of any thunderstorm activity. Breezy southerly winds stick
around down south with northerly flow up north as showers and
isolated thunderstorms move across the CWA. Precipitation lingers
into the late evening hours before drying up. Similar conditions
return on Friday with mostly diurnally driven flow with showers and
storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A broad trough positioned over the West Coast states
has kept a period of disturbed southerly flow over the state of
Utah, leading to shower and thunderstorm activity over roughly the
northern two-thirds of the state. This big picture system will
remain in place through the upcoming weekend, however, an ejecting
shortwave disturbance will bring some cooling across the northern
half of the region on Saturday. Low level flow will increase
tomorrow afternoon ahead of this ejecting wave, which will
generate critical fire weather conditions across the eastern
valley areas of Utah and elevated fire weather conditions over
southern and western Utah.
With increased shower and thunderstorm coverage expected over the
northern half of Utah through the next 7 days, humidity values
will remain more moderated in this region while the southern half
of the area will sit mostly below the 20% humidity mark.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for UTZ107.
WY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Webber
LONG TERM...Warthen
AVIATION...Selbig
FIRE WEATHER...Webber
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
932 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Isolated showers and storms that have been ongoing this
evening have dissipated with the loss of daytime heating.
Patchy mid and high clouds will likely prevail across the
forecast area overnight. Forecasted overnight lows look
reasonable per latest trends, as do the remaining first
period elements. Updated zones will reflect removal of
evening PoPs.
Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
The CWA remains awkwardly positioned under the current omega
block pattern as we transition to a rex block over the E CONUS
Friday into the weekend. Another round of isolated showers and
some thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon before drier
air is pulled into the area from the northeast this weekend.
As a result, pleasant conditions are expected for the holiday
weekend with seasonable high temps generally in the 80s and light
winds. Weak southerly flow then returns to the area late in the
weekend as the blocking pattern breaks down and an upper level
shortwave slowly moves toward the area from the desert southwest.
May see another decaying W Oklahoma MCS affect western portions of
the CWA Sunday morning, but much of the area should remain dry.
Beginning on Monday, would expect an increase in afternoon
PoPs again as moisture advects into the area through the end of
the period. The ECMWF was generally drier as it attempts to shunt
this feature south and builds another ridge into the area. Other
solutions keep the trough closer to our area with more rain and
storms. Given the uncertainty with diverging solutions and minimal
changes to the airmass, will stick with continued slight chance
to chance PoPs each day, slightly above NBM guidance. The chance
for showers and storms currently looks to be the highest Tuesday
through Thursday. Temps should remain near to slightly above
seasonal averages, though if the ridge pattern verifies next week,
may see hotter temperatures build into the region. Generally
light winds will prevail through the period.
Rada
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
After storms dissipate by 01Z near KTUL and KBVO, VFR conditions
are expected areawide with sct to bkn mid and high cloud and light
sfc winds. The latest HRRR does show isolated afternoon showers
and storms, but chances of affecting a terminal pretty low and
will not be included. Followed lead of previous forecast and
included afternoon cu at all sites.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 84 57 82 / 10 20 0 10
FSM 63 85 57 84 / 0 20 0 0
MLC 60 84 57 83 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 57 84 52 82 / 10 20 0 10
FYV 58 82 52 81 / 0 20 0 0
BYV 59 79 50 79 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 60 82 58 81 / 10 20 0 0
MIO 60 82 52 79 / 0 20 0 0
F10 60 82 59 80 / 10 10 0 10
HHW 63 84 61 82 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
531 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 108 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Upper Midwest with trof
over the western CONUS. AT the surface, trof extends from
northeast WY into far western ND. A few -shra are bubbling in the
northern Black Hills along an east-west surface boundary. Geocolor
RGB shows area of smoke encompassing the western Dakotas.
MLCAPE has risen to around 1000J/kg along and east of
aforementioned surface trof, and will continue to rise close to
2000J J/kg this afternoon. As ejecting short wave lifts out of the
Central Rockies, scattered convection will develop across our far
western zones and continue into the evening. Effective bulk shear
is quite low, so not expecting much in the way of severe storms.
RAP smoke model does show much of the smoke lifting
north/northeast of the area tonight as southwest flow aloft
increases.
On Friday, stronger short wave approaches in the
afternoon/evening. MLCAPE should be a little higher than today, up
to about 2000J/kg, and shear will be slightly stronger. This could
lead to a few more stronger to severe storms, especially over our
far western zones later in the day.
Continued southwest flow with embedded waves will persist through
the weekend, resulting in daily chances for showers/storms. Some
strong to severe storms possible at times. By early next week,
west coast trof splits with our area more under the influence of
zonal flow with the northern stream. While unsettle conditions
will likely continue, the overall severe threat should be
somewhat limited. Temps should remain slightly above average.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 531 PM MDT Thu May 25 2023
SHRA/TSRA will continue over portions of northeastern WY and far
western SD thru 03-06z before activity wanes. Localized MVFR
conditions and strong, erratic wind gusts are possible in
association with stronger storms. After 09z, model consensus
suggests low stratus with MVFR/localized IFR cigs could develop
across southwestern SD and northeastern WY. If so, these lowered
cigs could persist thru 12-15z before conditions improve.
Additional TSRA, some of which could produce wind gusts over 40 kt
and hail of quarter sized or larger, are expected across
northeastern WY and western SD tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Sherburn