Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/25/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
605 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, will continue with cooler than normal temperatures along and east of the central mountain chain through at least Saturday and possibly also Sunday. Meanwhile, gusty and dry weather with temperatures near and above normal are expected over western areas, except for a spotty mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over the upper Rio Grande Valley, northwest mountains, and northwest highlands. After a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and warmer temperatures early next week, gusty showers and thunderstorms may increase in coverage again across much of the forecast area on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 A low amplitude ridge will pump up over the area tonight, then shift slowly eastward through early Friday morning as a deepening trough over the Great Basin and Desert SW gradually moves east as well. The result is deepening Gulf moisture across eastern NM with increasing shear and instability, mostly from daytime heating. The SPC has upgraded the slight risk for much of the eastern plains to an enhanced risk, with other portions of the plains and highlands remaining in a slight risk for severe storms. Both instability and shear have upticked compared to yesterday, with much of the eastern plains now forecast to reach 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts and sbCAPE values of 2500-3000J/kg. The most recent NAM continues to show organization into a MCS later this evening and continuing overnight across the TX Panhandle and far eastern NM. The latest HRRR and HREF are similar, but confine thunderstorm impacts beyond midnight to an area from Tucumcari to Portales. Outflow is forecast to surge west overnight and result in an east canyon/gap wind into the RGV from Santa Fe south through Albuquerque, with gusts to between 30-35mph likely. Given sufficient clearing tonight, areas of low stratus are likely along/east of the central mountain chain early Thursday morning and patchy fog is possible. The 12Z model solutions are showing a later start to convection on Thursday afternoon with a little less instability than today and both the latest NAM and GFS are showing much less qpf. However, sufficient shear and instability will be in place late Thursday for a threat for severe storms along/east of the central mountain chain. With convective initiation expected over the Sangre De Cristos, flash flooding of the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon will once again be a threat. The ridge will shift east late Thursday night, with southwest flow aloft increasing over the area in advance of a Pacific trough. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 The large scale weather pattern, with an upper level trough over the Great Basin and a ridge of high pressure over western Texas, will continue through Saturday. Thus, daily rounds of strong to severe weather will continue along and east of the central mountain chain, with dry weather further west, except for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over the upper Rio Grande Valley and northwest mountains and highlands each afternoon and early evening. Storms along the central mountain chain look to be capable of heavy enough rain to produce hazardous runoff on recent burn scars; however, the heaviest rain will fall over the far eastern plains where some locations may receive 0.50-1.00" of rain with locally higher amounts Friday through Saturday. Sunday and Monday, a weak upper level low pressure system is forecast to develop over central and southern CA. An upper level disturbance is also forecast to eject northeastward from the base of this upper low across eastern NM. As a result, present model runs show drier air overspreading eastern NM Sunday and Monday with the focus for dryline thunderstorms mainly over western TX. The timing and track of the disturbance crossing eastern NM will play an important role in determining where the dryline sets up, and we can`t rule out that the dryline wont continue to be active over at least our southeast plains on Sunday and potentially both days. Low level return flow is forecast to make significant progress back into the forecast area Monday night and Tuesday, while the upper low on the west coast begins to shift inland. This should result in greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms, potentially even over central and western areas where the convection may produce more in the way of wind than rain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 Severe storms will continue through approximately 02Z across east central NM with damaging wind gusts and large hail likely. A tornado is also possible. Areas from KCAO southward toward KCVS will be impacted. Though the severe threat will diminish after 02Z, some SHRA and TSRA will continue well into the evening across eastern NM. Outflow from the storms will push westward and bring an east canyon wind into the ABQ metro area. Gusts near 30kt are possible at KABQ. Low clouds will develop behind the boundary across eastern NM with MVFR to IFR conditions likely. These low clouds will erode between 13Z and 17Z, then another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected across eastern NM Thursday afternoon. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 Increasing southwest flow aloft across western NM with the slow approach of a Pacific trough through Friday will bring uptrending winds and hot, dry and unstable conditions. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture will remain from the central mountain chain eastward, where rounds of wetting storms are likely with the potential for burn scar flooding. Winds will exceed critical thresholds across portions of western NM on Friday, bringing spotty critical fire weather conditions. Winds are forecast to trend down by Saturday, but elevated fire weather conditions are likely across western areas. Winds will limit critical fire weather conditions on Sunday, but much of the area will be hot, dry and unstable. Warming with a ridge is forecast for Monday, followed by a weak Pacific low and increasing chances for wetting storms going into the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 51 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 41 78 43 76 / 5 5 10 20 Cuba............................ 45 76 47 77 / 5 5 5 10 Gallup.......................... 42 81 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 44 79 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 44 82 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 45 80 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 50 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 47 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 39 82 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 86 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 40 71 41 69 / 10 20 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 50 76 53 74 / 10 10 10 30 Pecos........................... 48 75 50 74 / 20 30 30 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 71 46 71 / 20 20 20 40 Red River....................... 38 65 40 64 / 20 40 20 50 Angel Fire...................... 36 68 38 67 / 30 50 30 50 Taos............................ 41 76 44 75 / 10 20 10 30 Mora............................ 44 72 45 70 / 30 40 40 60 Espanola........................ 49 83 52 82 / 10 10 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 50 77 53 77 / 10 20 20 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 81 52 80 / 10 10 10 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 83 59 82 / 0 5 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 84 57 84 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 52 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 54 86 56 86 / 5 5 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 51 87 53 88 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 55 85 56 85 / 0 5 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 51 87 54 88 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 56 83 56 83 / 5 5 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 56 84 56 84 / 0 5 5 10 Socorro......................... 55 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 77 51 77 / 5 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 52 80 52 80 / 5 5 10 20 Edgewood........................ 47 79 49 79 / 10 10 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 80 47 80 / 5 10 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 47 76 49 75 / 10 20 20 40 Mountainair..................... 47 80 50 81 / 0 10 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 48 81 50 81 / 0 10 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 57 85 56 84 / 0 10 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 47 76 49 77 / 5 20 20 30 Capulin......................... 46 71 50 72 / 40 30 30 50 Raton........................... 45 76 49 76 / 30 30 30 40 Springer........................ 49 76 51 77 / 40 30 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 47 74 49 73 / 20 30 30 60 Clayton......................... 52 74 55 74 / 60 30 40 50 Roy............................. 51 74 53 73 / 60 30 40 60 Conchas......................... 55 81 57 80 / 50 20 40 60 Santa Rosa...................... 55 80 57 78 / 30 20 30 60 Tucumcari....................... 53 80 57 79 / 70 20 40 60 Clovis.......................... 54 77 58 77 / 60 20 30 60 Portales........................ 55 79 58 78 / 60 20 30 60 Fort Sumner..................... 54 81 58 81 / 30 20 30 60 Roswell......................... 62 86 63 87 / 20 20 20 40 Picacho......................... 53 80 55 81 / 10 20 20 40 Elk............................. 48 79 52 81 / 5 20 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...34
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Key Messages: - Mild for most areas Today and Tomorrow - Slight Chance for Frost along and North of I-94 Friday Morning. - Warming and Continued Dry Trend through Memorial Day Weekend Today and Tonight: A low-level boundary will continue to move its way through our region today, bringing cooler temperatures with high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s today and tomorrow. This backdoor front may stall briefly over portions of northeast Iowa today which may allow our Iowa and more western Minnesota counties to have warmer maximum temperatures than most with highs in the mid to upper 70s to near 80 in spots. A few previous CAMS models had some indication of showers trying to form along this boundary as it moves through portions of central Wisconsin. However, latest guidance does not favor this as dewpoints and moisture content will be unfavorable to allow for any precip in our region. Thursday Night through Memorial Day: As the week comes to a close, this dry and quiet pattern will continue with a substantial ridge locking itself over our region through the coming days. Lower temperatures and clear skies towards the end of the week brings a slight chance of frost overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. This would mostly occur in areas along and north of I-94 in low-lying spots with low temperatures in the mid to upper-30s. However, it is unclear if saturation will be reached in most locations with temperatures fairly departed from the dewpoint at the surface. In locations where near saturation could occur localized frost may be possible Friday morning. With this upper-level ridge moving into our region we can expect a gradual increase in our temperatures through the weekend with highs on Friday in the mid-70s, increasing to the mid-80s by Memorial Day. Conditions should remain dry through the weekend as well with around 900mb mixing heights and decent winds aloft will allow for some mixing of dry air down to the surface. This will keep dewpoints low and relative humidities in the 20 to 30 percent range across the region on Friday and Saturday. Additionally, with the change in 500mb flow pattern due to this incoming ridge, a reduction in the smoke aloft can be noted with a shift to a south to southeasterly flow over the weekend. The RAP guidance tends to agree with this and has the vertically integrated smoke fields pushing the smoke out of our region by Friday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 VFR conditions expected across the area for the 06Z TAF period. Scattered precipitation expected to remain northeast of KLSE. Winds shift to southeasterly as the high continues a slow easterly propagation. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Naylor AVIATION...JAR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
613 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Of course, it depends on who you ask...but if you ask me...beautiful early summertime conditions are on tap for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley! Deep South Texas will remain on the eastern side of a mid level subtropical ridge through the short term period. The northwesterly flow aloft associated with the ridge will provide subsidence and drier air to the region, helping to keep us rain-free through the period. A weak cold front stalled over the Brush Country and northern ranchlands of Deep South Texas earlier today, which has kept the pressure gradient rather weak across our area and in turn has helped to keep our east-southeasterly flow light to moderate today. The front will stick around the vicinity and maintain these lighter winds through the period. With drier air filtering in across a good portion of the atmosphere over Deep South Texas, cloud cover will be minimal, bringing beautiful mostly sunny skies...but watch out for the extreme UV index! Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s through the period. Patchy fog will be possible across the Brush Country and some of the central portions of our County Warning Area both early Thursday and Friday mornings, but should generally be pretty shallow and short-lived. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Mainly benign weather still in play for the long-term portion of the forecast, though some subtle changes may begin creeping in for the latter half of the Memorial Day holiday weekend, particularly for the Upper Rio Grande Valley and Rio Grande Plains. Latest RAP analysis shows 500-mb ridge axis extending from SW of Mexico (around latitude 17N) all the way up through Texas and into the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains (~50N). This ridging aloft will continue to be the main player in our sensible weather through Saturday, as omega-blocking transforms into more of a Rex-block over the eastern CONUS. By later Saturday into Sunday, model consensus begins to translate the ridge axis eastward, with more WSW flow aloft approaching the Rio Grande on the backside of the ridge. This could allow some remnant showers from convection on the Mexican plateau to reach Zapata and Starr counties as early as late Saturday night, per deterministic global models and WPC QPF guidance (which stops measurable QPF just shy of the Rio Grande). Shaded some mentionable PoPs into that area to account for this possibility (<20%). Heading into Sunday and especially Monday, more general 500-mb "troughiness" is progged to lie upstream, near the Big Bend region of Texas/Mexico, with a short-wave or two ejecting out at times and enhancing PoPs/thunder chances a bit. Right now, a Monday short-wave appears to be the most potent. Again, nudged up NBM PoP`s Sunday and Monday (by 5-7%) to better align with WPC QPF. As the ridge`s influence wanes, time-height sections at BRO also reveal somewhat deeper moisture (up to around 700mb) in the Memorial Day through next Wed timeframe, which may allow the sea- breeze to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms near the coast. Not expecting this to be a "big deal", but NBM 90th percentile 24-hour QPF values are several tenths of inch for each period across much of the CWA. Also, CWASP value is progged to be >50 at times, mainly across the northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Plains, so will have to watch for the possibility of a few stronger storms. Temperatures look to remain pretty seasonal for late May, with H85 temps hovering around 17-18C through Sunday. Also, afternoon dewpoints generally stay below 70F through Monday/Memorial Day, so heat will not be oppressive. Temps and dewpoints do start to increase a bit by the middle of next week. Finally, will need to keep an eye on rip current risk with the nice weather and holiday weekend likely to draw large crowds at the beach. Gulf seas never really build above 3 ft., though NWPS experimental rip current guidance does suggest a moderate risk from Saturday night through Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period with light to moderate easterly winds. A bit of fog is possible between 10Z and 13Z and included it in the TAFs for the traditionally foggier KHRL. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Now through Thursday night...Let the favorable marine conditions continue! Sorry surfers, but "Lake Padre" is here to stay for the short term. Buoy 42020 has been reporting seas around 1 foot and light to moderate ENE winds all day today (with a slight uptick behind a very weak cold front draped over the northwest Gulf), and no significant change from the current conditions is expected. Seas will stay generally 2 feet or less through Thursday night with light to moderate onshore winds. Friday through Tuesday...Favorable marine conditions are likely to persist for Memorial Day weekend boaters, as weak surface high pressure over the western Gulf and a stalled front to the north maintain a light-to-moderate onshore flow. Winds may be locally enhanced to 10-15 knots on the Laguna Madre during the afternoons with the sea-breeze, but no Small Craft Exercise Caution wording should be needed. Gulf seas run 2-3 ft. through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 89 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 73 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 84 76 84 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 87 73 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-Farris LONG TERM....53-Schroeder AVIATION...58-Reese
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
640 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 An upper level ridge will slide into the region tonight and build into the weekend. Rain chances appear slim to none, however, if something was to develop it could be late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Despite various models showing a shortwave rotating around the ridge, the HRRR is the only one currently showing an MCS developing across West Texas tonight and tracking southeastward through the Northern Rio Grande Plains. The HRRR has the MCS decaying just north of the Brush Country with only a few showers possibly making its way into our CWA. With limited moisture available tomorrow and low confidence on the solution of the HRRR, opted not to increase PoPs out west at this time. As for temperatures, seasonal highs and lows are expected with highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s across the east and mid 90s across the west. Lows will remain mild with most of the CWA in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Mid-level ridging will keep dry conditions and seasonal temperatures in place through the weekend, creating pleasant beach conditions for Memorial Day Weekend. Highs from the mid 80s along the coast to the mid 90s over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the long term. A mid-level trough is expected to push into South Texas from northern Mexico between Sunday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF is slightly slower than the GFS with both models increasing moisture to PWATs around 1.75" (75th percentile) early next week. Therefore, will maintain slight chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms across South Texas Monday through Tuesday. Currently not expecting much in terms of accumulation with NBM probability of QPF greater than 0.1" only 15-25%. Increased moisture will raise relative humidity and cause maximum heat index values to near 100 on Tuesday over the southern Coastal Bend and Brush Country. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Few to scattered cumulus/VFR conditions, along with anvil cirrus associated with convection over Coahuila, will continue through the evening hours. Winds will become light again tonight. SREF probabilities along with latest HRRR model show the best potential for fog will be from Alice to Hebbronville and northeast to near Beeville and Victoria late tonight. Will show IFR vsbys in fog at ALI around 08Z with potential for LIFR vsbys/ceilings from 10 to 13Z Thursday. Will show a little better vsby at VCT with MVFR vsbys around 09Z with potential for IFR vsbys from 10-13Z. The fog will lift by 14Z Thursday with VFR conditions expected area wide through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Weak to moderate onshore flow between 10 to 15 knots will continue tonight through tomorrow night. Weak northeasterly flow Friday will shift back onshore at around 10 knots Friday night and continue into early next week. Ridging over the region will keep dry conditions through the weekend, but we could see rain chances begin early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 72 89 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 69 88 69 90 / 0 10 0 0 Laredo 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 68 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 74 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 73 94 73 96 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 78 88 78 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...TMT/89
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1046 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 LATEST UPDATE... Marine .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Our frost advisory may not work out too well since the winds stay up around 10-15 mph (with occasional higher gusts) for much of the night and there is considerable high level cloudiness streaming in from the northwest. Another big problem is the sfc dew pt depressions are significant and even at 6 AM Thursday morning still range from near 6F at MOP to as much as 16F at MKG in HRRR guidance. The best chance for any frost late tonight looks to be over eastern sections (LAN/AMN/MOP) where lowest wind speeds and dew pt depressions should occur after 06Z, with lesser chance over western sections (GRR/MKG/LDM). It`s not really worth it at this point to remove any counties from the frost headline, especially since certain micro-climates could easily see the sfc winds die off and temps plummet late at night. The freeze warning area looks fine, especially if clouds end up being predominately thin. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 The cold front will passing the region will keep temperatures cooler. However, mid and low levels remain dry so there will be hardly any let alone any precipitation. Freeze warning remains in effect for tonight into tomorrow morning. Along with this is a frost advisory. The winds will remain gusty for the first half of the overnight period but as the frost moves southward and the high builds and the cold pool build the sfc will decouple. Once winds become light temps will drop considerably and areas of frost should form. A cooler but dry day is in storm tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 The long range fcst period will be characterized by a significant moderating trend of temperatures through the holiday weekend and through the early to middle portion of next week. Predominantly dry wx is also expected with a sfc high pressure ridge in place Friday night through Sunday. High temps will reach well into the 70s Sat/Sun and well into the 80s from Memorial Day through at least the middle of next week and likely longer than that. Also of note is the continued absence of precipitation from the fcst. Some of our latest medium range guidance ensembles suggest it may take until around the second week of June for the larger scale wx pattern to transition to one that would bring pcpn and a return to closer to normal temperatures. For the foreseeable future though the wx pattern looks quite warm to potentially hot and dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 806 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 VFR weather is nearly certain tonight and Thursday with cloud bases above 12,000 ft. Sfc wind speeds and gusts (out of the east- northeast) tonight are a bit more uncertain however. A wind speed max of 30-40 kts at 1000-2000 ft AGL is shown to impact the area for much of the night which could keep the sfc winds up as well (12-15 kts sustained with gusts up to 25 kts). The other scenario is if the sfc winds relax below 10 kts then there would be a chance of low level wind shear with a speed loss/gain of 20 kts or more-- peaking between 03Z and 09Z tonight. The winds at 1000-2000 ft AGL decrease substantially after 12Z with sfc winds around 10 kts expected on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1046 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Wave heights have subsided to 2.5 ft at Ludington and the Beach Hazard Statement for Mason and Oceana Counties was allowed to expire at 10 PM (Along with the small craft advisory in the nearshore.) Meanwhile, easterly flow is still shown by the HRRR to increase substantially through 2 AM south of Whitehall so will maintain the small craft advisory there. Highest winds and waves are expected to be well offshore toward the 5 mile point overnight but a few gusts near 30 kts are still possible closer to shore. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ037-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ038>040. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>847. && $$ UPDATE...Meade SHORT TERM...Ceru LONG TERM...Laurens AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
743 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 743 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Dry weather will prevail across central Illinois through the holiday weekend. A back door cold front pushing through central Illinois will bring breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures for a few days. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 70s, with mid to upper 70s on Friday. Highs will be back in the low to mid 80s this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 743 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Back door cold front is about to edge into the northeast parts of the forecast area this evening, with 7 pm temperatures near 70 degrees as close as Pontiac and lower 60s near Kankakee. Main impacts besides the noticeably cooler conditions will be with a period of windiness this evening. Northeast winds now gusting from 25-30 mph from Bloomington to Decatur eastward, and this area will be most favored to keep up such speeds through the evening. Cirrus clouds will mix with the smoke layer aloft to produce partly to occasionally mostly cloudy conditions tonight. Forecast is largely on track this evening. Main adjustment was to bump up the wind gusts a bit. Geelhart && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 ---------- Key Messages ------------ 1. A cold front moves through this evening, ushering in cooler, drier air for Thursday and Friday. 2. The Environmental Protection Agency forecasts the air quality to become unhealthy for sensitive groups this evening/tonight across central Illinois, primarily north of I-70. 3. Appreciable rain is unlikely (less than 20% chance) anywhere across the CWA through at least next Tuesday. Rapid-onset (or "flash") drought remains the main weather concern for central IL at this time. ----------------------------------- A cold front continues to progress towards central IL, but ahead of the front it`s quite warm, with temps in the mid or even upper 80s at 19z/2pm. Widespread diurnal cumulus have developed ahead of the front as well. Across northern IL, behind the front, temps were only in the mid 70s at this time. As the front moves through tonight, northeasterly winds will gust around 25 mph and low temps drop into the 50s. The EPA forecasts note that air quality across central IL could be unhealthy for sensitive groups this evening. However, this is primarily driven by ozone concentrations rather than wildfire smoke, although smoke may also be a minor factor in the poor air quality tonight. RAP smoke concentrations due show some near-surface smoke behind the front, but concentrations are rather low so it should not be as much of an issue as it was with the cold front last Friday. Any near-surface smoke should push south of the ILX CWA by Thurs morning. High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to dominate the local weather for a few days, keeping northeasterly sfc winds in place. Temps will be coolest on Thurs, with highs only reaching the low 70s. That continue northeast flow will advect an unseasonably dry airmass into central Illinois, with afternoon dewpoints in the mid-30s Thurs/Fri, and PWAT values falling to around 0.30". Such PWAT values are below the 5th percentile of the ILX sounding climatology for late May. With highs temps in the 70s, a modest east- northeasterly wind, and the low humidity, it will feel quite refreshing on Thurs/Fri. A pleasant Memorial Day Weekend is in store, with gradually warming temperatures and no impactful weather to speak of. A Rex Block becomes established in the upper levels, with upper ridging over the Great Lakes and an upper low over the southeast US. While there was originally some uncertainty as to the placement of that upper low, guidance has come into better agreement that it will stay far enough south to prevent any shower activity from clipping the southern portions of the CWA. Light easterly flow continues into the weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the low 80s, then warm to the mid/upper 80s by Memorial Day. Such temperatures are above normal for Memorial Day, but not necessarily uncommon. Since the 1880s, roughly 40-45% of Memorial Days in central IL have had highs over 80F. Dewpoints gradually increase over the course of the weekend, but remain seasonably low, only reaching the 50s by Memorial Day. The lack of high humidity should largely mitigate any heat-related concerns, keeping heat indices below 90F. Beyond Memorial Day, robust rain chances for central Illinois are still hard to find. Guidance has been trending slower and slower in breaking down/shifting away the Rex Block, a common trend with these types of blocking patterns. Deterministic guidance keeps modest upper level ridging across IL through much of next week, with a subtle wave meandering over the west-central Plains, and cutoff lows over California and the Carolinas. It all adds up to a slow-to- evolve pattern with minimal rainfall across the ILX CWA. From an ensemble viewpoint, the probability of rainfall exceeding 0.01" at any given point in the CWA is less than 20% through next Wed morning. The chance of exceeding 0.01" of rain starts to nudge higher during the latter half of next week, although that`s not all that surprising when we`re looking at an ensemble beyond day 7. If the QPF threshold is nudged upward to a slightly more meaningful amount, like a tenth of an inch, the probabilities are grim: less than a 20% of exceeding that amount on any day through NEXT Saturday (June 3rd). Temperatures are expected to remain above average next week as well, with highs in the upper 80s or even low 90s. While there is no drought present in central IL at this time, the prolonged stretch of warm, dry weather will likely start to put some stress on vulnerable vegetation. If you`re able, consider submitting Condition Monitoring Observer Reports for Drought (CMOR) to help monitor any developing drought impacts across the region. See the top news section of our web page for more information about how to submit these reports. Erwin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Despite the hazy conditions aloft due to the smoke, VFR conditions will prevail at the surface for the next 24 hours. Northeast winds have set up behind a cold front that is moving southwest, and a period of wind gusts 20-25 knots is expected mostly in the evening at the TAF sites. Winds drop off a bit Thursday morning, but will still remain sustained at 10-15 knots into the afternoon. Geelhart && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
716 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 712 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 As expected it`s been a busy evening across South FL with several severe storms and several flood advisories across the area. Latest HRRR shows activity continuing to slowly wane over the next several hours. The Flood Watch continues until 10PM for the east coast metro. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 ...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon/Evening with Locally Heavy Rainfall... A potentially active afternoon and evening ahead of us with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the interior and east coast metro. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible. An upper level trough extends from the Southeast US over the FL peninsula and eastern GOM, while a weak surface low and associated stationary front sit over Central FL. This low will push southeastward towards South FL by late tonight and allow for a continuation of the unsettled pattern. With cooling temperatures aloft (-11C at 500mb, <14kft FZL), and sufficient instability (>2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and shear (effective bulk shear of 20-30kts), there is the potential for strong to severe storms to develop along boundaries through the evening. The biggest concern at this time is heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding due to very slow storm motions. Isolated pockets of 4-6 inches of rainfall are not out of the question today, but generally expecting a more widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall for the areas that see storms. Damaging winds, hail, and frequent lightning are also potential threats. Convective activity is expected to taper off late in the evening. Another active convective day is on tap for Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be slightly less favorable for severe storms as temps aloft warm a degree or two, and wind profiles are a little weaker. However, any thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall, with localized flooding possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s for interior areas and low-mid 70s for coastal areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 The unsettled pattern continues at least through the first half of the long term period. A mid to upper level cutoff low is progged to develop across the eastern CONUS and begin pushing towards the Southeast late on Thursday. This feature will deepen through the day on Friday and aid in the development of a surface low just off the northeast Florida coast by late Friday. At the surface, the remnants of a frontal boundary that was stalled just to the north of the region will continue to allow for a rather light west to southwesterly wind flow through the end of the week. This will allow for rich tropical moisture to continue to advect into the region as the latest forecast soundings show PWAT values hovering between 1.6 and 1.8 inches. These features will allow scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the entire South Florida area and local waters Friday afternoon. With cooling 500mb temps, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with the best chance for seeing stronger cells around the Lake Okeechobee region. Heading into the weekend, the upper level cutoff low likely will linger across the Southeast and keep South Florida in a westerly- southwesterly regime through the weekend. This will favor scattered afternoon sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms across portions of the interior and eastern metro areas each day. Some guidance is showing a chance for mid-upper level dry air to reach the area on Saturday and Sunday and this could potentially limit coverage somewhat although it seems there will be enough lower-level moisture to support at least a few showers and thunderstorms each day, especially on Saturday. Temperatures across the area will remain hot through the long term period. Highs will likely be reaching the lower 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s each day. The evenings will remain warm, with lows dropping to the low 70s along the East coast and mid 60s in the interior. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Scattered thunderstorms will continue for several more hours this evening and may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Winds late tonight and overnight will be light and variable, becoming SW 5-10 kts later in the morning before the sea breezes kick in. Additional afternoon and evening showers/storms expected Thursday which may lead to additional brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 South to southwesterly flow will prevail across Atlantic waters today and tomorrow with northwesterly flow across Gulf waters. Low seas will dominate outside of the Gulf Stream, with 2-3 feet within the current. Showers and storms expected each day this week, which may result in locally hazardous seas and winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Along the Atlantic coast, onshore flow will result in a moderate rip current risk along the Atlantic beaches. An elevated risk will remain for the next several days across Palm Beach County beaches due to an increasing NE swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 73 86 73 86 / 50 80 80 80 West Kendall 70 88 69 88 / 50 80 70 80 Opa-Locka 72 87 71 87 / 50 80 70 80 Homestead 70 87 71 86 / 60 80 80 80 Fort Lauderdale 73 84 72 85 / 50 80 80 80 N Ft Lauderdale 73 85 72 85 / 50 80 80 90 Pembroke Pines 72 87 71 86 / 50 80 70 80 West Palm Beach 71 86 71 85 / 60 90 80 90 Boca Raton 73 87 71 86 / 60 90 80 90 Naples 72 88 72 87 / 50 80 70 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168- 172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...CMF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1027 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Skies are clear across eastern TN and southwest VA tonight. Dewpoints were adjusted slightly downwards to adjust towards current observations. Otherwise forecast is on track and we will remain dry through the overnight and morning periods. High altitude smoke will continue to bring haze to our skies, sun was unusually red at sunset, expect similar at sunrise given the RAP persisting the smoke over our area for the near term. Given current dewpoint depressions will take a while to shrink, not expecting any fog overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Key Messages: 1. Dry conditions this evening and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers possible Thursday afternoon, mainly east of I-75. 2. Temperatures will remain near normal. Discussion: Current satellite imagery shows some afternoon CU development taking place, with greatest coverage across portions of the southern valley and Cumberland Plateau. This relatively higher coverage of CU aligns well with areas of greatest SB instability(500-750J/kg) and moisture availability via SPC Mesoanalysis. Some of the 12Z HREF members have backed-off on the potential for a stray shower across the southern plateau but some, such as the NAM Nest, continue to show the potential. Given the presence of a fairly strong subsidence inversion found in model derived soundings and recent satellite trends, have opted to omit the slight chance PoPs with this afternoon package. Perhaps a stray shower develops but don`t believe it warrants the mentionable PoPs. Clear skies and light winds will allow for ample radiational cooling overnight. Lows are expected be a tad cool, with most valley locations ranging in the 50s. The largely dry airmass will prevent any notable fog development but some patchy river valley fog is possible, mainly in southern areas where moisture is a bit more favorable. A shortwave impulse traversing mean flow aloft will drive a moisture starved surface boundary through the region Thursday. This will result in increasing chances of rain showers, mainly east of I-75, favoring a diurnal trend. Isolated to scattered showers are possible along with a rumble of thunder or two. The lack of synoptic support and little to no shear will prevent any organized convection with no severe or flooding threat anticipated. Afternoon highs will be normal for late May. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Key Messages: 1. Isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon, mainly south of I-40. 2. Unsettled weather with some rain showers Saturday through Monday. 3. Much cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Discussion: Thursday night an elongated upper trough extending from the Maine to Missouri will gradually drift southward. Deterministic models agree that the mean trough over the eastern U.S. will persist through the weekend into early next week. The southern branch of the aforementioned elongated trough forms a weak cutoff low early Friday morning. Eventually this low gets caught up in a larger upper low along the Gulf Coast. Then the entire system will meander over the forecast area through Monday. The position of the upper low (lower heights) and associated cloud cover/rainfall will drop daytime temperatures into the lower 50s/70s Sat/Sun morning/afternoon. Rainfall amounts appear to be limited due to the downslope (NE winds) nature of this system. The total QPF from Friday afternoon through Monday night ranges from around 0.5 inch at TriCities to around a tenth of an inch at Chattanooga. Highest amounts will likely be a the highest ridgetops of the Smokys (perhaps as high as 1 inch) and southwest Virginia (closer to 3/4 of an inch). Thunder chances are very limited with this system. Friday afternoon south of I-40 looks to be the best chances for isolated thunderstorms to form. Confidence is low for this to occur. Over the weekend, despite the colder core aloft, the instability for thunder is nearly non-existent. Some light rain showers and definitely cloudy conditions can be expected over the holiday weekend (just the messenger). For the remainder of the week, models lean heavily on diurnal showers (scattered in nature) nearly each afternoon. Given the weak upper flow and expected daytime highs each day (in the mid/upper 80s), have little to argue with to go against this solution. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023 VFR through the TAF period. Towards the end of the period, rain chances will increase for northeast TN into VA including KTRI, so included a VCSH for that terminal. Ceilings will be lowering for KTRI but is expected to remain VFR for this period. Winds are expected to be light, predominantly less than 10 knots for all TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 84 60 82 / 0 10 0 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 83 57 80 / 0 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 57 83 57 81 / 0 10 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 79 55 76 / 0 30 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wellington AVIATION...Wellington
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
506 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 Main weather story over the next week will be increasing thunderstorm chances through the end of this week, along with an increasing potential for a few severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows troughing over the West Coast and ridging over the Plains, with a steady stream of deep Pacific moisture in between these two features stretching from the Great Basin northward through central Canada. Visible/IR imagery shows fairly tame cumulus fields over much of western SD and northeastern WY, with more agitated cu along the northern periphery of the Black Hills and across southern Campbell County. Mature convection is ongoing over the Bighorns and near the higher terrain of southern WY. At the surface, a trough extends north-to-south in the lee of the Rockies from eastern CO northward into AB/SK. A tightened pressure gradient across western SD is facilitating breezy to windy conditions the area, with some gusts around 40 mph observed so far this afternoon. Smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to reside over the region. Large-scale forcing for organized convection is limited across the region this afternoon. Thunderstorms thus far have primarily been tied to localized geographical features within our adjacent areas. However, with continued daytime heating, we should gradually reach convective temperatures. Axis of best instability extends through eastern WY and far western SD in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface trof, which could act as a focus for increased convergence and convective organization later this afternoon into the evening. MLCAPE values of 1-2 kJ/kg will only be paired with deep-layer shear vector magnitudes of approximately 20 kt. While shear could plausibly be a bit higher in areas where terrain is influencing low- level flow, mode will likely be a mix of single and multicells given this CAPE/shear combo. Southerly mean winds will keep storms largely within the corridor from the Black Hills westward, with little to no activity expected farther north/east over the SD plains. Overall setup is not appreciably different tomorrow, so expecting a largely similar scenario. However, the trof axis shifts eastward slightly, and based on the RAP Smoke model, smoke concentrations could decrease. If so, the unstable sector may shift/expand eastward with slightly higher values of CAPE. Coverage could accordingly increase modestly, but severe potential still looks limited with paltry shear. As the midlevel trof approaches the area Friday and Saturday, deep moisture advection, bulk shear magnitudes, and forcing for ascent all increase. This should lead to increasing coverage and severity of storms. While only a small portion of the area is currently in SPC`s day 3 marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, the CSU/MLP guidance suggests potential for a "slight" (level 2 of 5) risk both Friday and Saturday, which seems reasonable given the pattern`s progression. PWATs will broadly climb to 150-200% of normal by Friday afternoon, as well, and remain at similar levels into Saturday, which could support locally heavy rainfall. A similar pattern persists through early next week, though increasingly zonal flow should favor lower PWATs and less widespread convection early in the week. Later next week, ensemble consensus favors a highly amplified ridge over the central CONUS. Over our region, the ridge will be susceptible to intrusions from shortwave trofs and meandering vorticity maxima. Therefore, not expecting any significant deviations from persistence in the 7-10 day forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 503 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023 Haze/smoke will wane through the period. Scattered TSRA with local IFR conditions (heavy rain/small hail/gusty winds) are expected through 06z over northeastern WY and far western/northwestern SD. Marginal LLWS is expected on the SD plains per a 30-35kt low level jet. Additional storms with local IFR conditions will develop Thursday afternoon over much of the area. Outside of storms, VFR conditions expected through the period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sherburn AVIATION...Helgeson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
845 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023 .SYNOPSIS...A persistent forecast expected each afternoon through the remainder of the work week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms across central Nevada and gusty southwest winds across the entire forecast area. Temperatures will gradually decrease through Friday before increasing once again through the holiday weekend. && .UPDATE...Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening in Esmeralda County, though lightning counts have decreased and cloud tops have trended warmer in the past hour. Tonight`s HRRR model trends suggest a fairly quick demise of the storms that remain as the surface stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. Similar conditions will return tomorrow with thunder chances possibly developing a little further south into northern Inyo County as well. Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue. The current forecast has the current trends well covered so no update is necessary tonight. -Outler- && .SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow. Another conditionally convective setup day for our CWA including Esmeralda and central Nye counties. A combination of meager upper level ascent from a shortwave that has been in place since yesterday, surface pressure drops this afternoon, and marginal instability are coming together to produce marginally severe storms mainly north of the HWY 6 corridor. As of 19Z, some storms were firing over the high terrain of Mono and Esmeralda counties, with much more robust convection from northern Nye in Elko`s area. 17Z HRRR soundings continue to show a stout amount of low level dry air spreading in from the southeast and intensifying the inverted V environment near Tonopah, that will do little to influence CI, but will increase the possibility for strong downburst winds in Esmeralda. In fact, we have just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for a storm cell that quickly initiated near Mina, NV. More of this is possible through the afternoon, and potentially several rounds as upper level dynamics bring waves of vort maxima over this area. 12Z HREF indicated up to a half inch of precip due to several rounds of thunderstorms from Silver Peak and north. This is a notoriously poor area for radar coverage so will be relying heavily on satellite trends in this area to capture these threats. A slow but steady drop in coverage continues tomorrow, with less favorable, but still conditional setup for afternoon thunderstorms again in Esmeralda and central Nye county, but perhaps also bringing the Eastern Sierra and White Mountains into play as CI focus areas as well. Similar threats would be possible compared to today. .LONG TERM...Friday through early next week. There remains general agreement between the ECMWF ensemble means and the GEFS means that the loitering trough over the western CONUS will start to push eastward this weekend. This will allow heights to rise over the Desert Southwest, which will increase temperatures to 3 to 5 degrees above seasonal averages through the holiday weekend. Those planning to recreate outside should exercise caution, especially if they have not spent much time outdoors yet this year. Those who have not had a chance to acclimate to the warmer temperatures will be more susceptible to heat-related impacts. Wear light-colored, loose- fitting clothing, drink plenty of water - even when you`re not thirsty, and eat light meals. Know and understand the symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke to ensure you and your loved ones enjoy a safe holiday weekend. There continues to be model disagreement regarding the extended-term forecast. One solution has a secondary vort lobe pushing down and along the aforementioned trough, which would halt its eastward progression and prolong southwesterly afternoon winds and cooler temperatures. Another solution favors weak southwesterly flow, which would result in warmer temperatures in the Mojave Desert. The NBM seems to favor the former solution, with slight PoPs across the southern Great Basin through the weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the remainder of the afternoon through mid evening, expect south-southwest winds between 15-25 knots, with gusts up to 30 knots possible. After 04Z, gusts should start to subside with southerly winds up to 12 knots continuing overnight. Winds are expected to become light and variable Thursday morning before increasing out of the southeast through sunset. A few afternoon cumulus possible over the higher terrain, otherwise clouds will be above 20,000 feet. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Widespread south to southwest winds across the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Most locations will see speeds between 15-25 knots with a few locations seeing gusts 30-35 knots. There is about a 10% chance of thunderstorms at KBIH, but most storms should generally remain over the White Mountains and northeast into Esmeralda County, Nevada. West winds will stay elevated and gusty at KDAG this evening into the very early morning hours on Thursday, while elsewhere after 04Z sustained speeds and gusts will start to subside. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...TB3 LONG TERM...Varian AVIATION...Salmen For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter