Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/25/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
605 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be
severe, will continue with cooler than normal temperatures along
and east of the central mountain chain through at least Saturday
and possibly also Sunday. Meanwhile, gusty and dry weather with
temperatures near and above normal are expected over western
areas, except for a spotty mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over
the upper Rio Grande Valley, northwest mountains, and northwest
highlands. After a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and warmer
temperatures early next week, gusty showers and thunderstorms may
increase in coverage again across much of the forecast area on
Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
A low amplitude ridge will pump up over the area tonight, then
shift slowly eastward through early Friday morning as a deepening
trough over the Great Basin and Desert SW gradually moves east as
well. The result is deepening Gulf moisture across eastern NM with
increasing shear and instability, mostly from daytime heating.
The SPC has upgraded the slight risk for much of the eastern
plains to an enhanced risk, with other portions of the plains and
highlands remaining in a slight risk for severe storms. Both
instability and shear have upticked compared to yesterday, with
much of the eastern plains now forecast to reach 0-6km bulk shear
of 40-50kts and sbCAPE values of 2500-3000J/kg. The most recent
NAM continues to show organization into a MCS later this evening
and continuing overnight across the TX Panhandle and far eastern
NM. The latest HRRR and HREF are similar, but confine thunderstorm
impacts beyond midnight to an area from Tucumcari to Portales.
Outflow is forecast to surge west overnight and result in an east
canyon/gap wind into the RGV from Santa Fe south through
Albuquerque, with gusts to between 30-35mph likely. Given
sufficient clearing tonight, areas of low stratus are likely
along/east of the central mountain chain early Thursday morning
and patchy fog is possible. The 12Z model solutions are showing a
later start to convection on Thursday afternoon with a little less
instability than today and both the latest NAM and GFS are
showing much less qpf. However, sufficient shear and instability
will be in place late Thursday for a threat for severe storms
along/east of the central mountain chain. With convective
initiation expected over the Sangre De Cristos, flash flooding of
the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon will once again be a threat. The
ridge will shift east late Thursday night, with southwest flow
aloft increasing over the area in advance of a Pacific trough.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
The large scale weather pattern, with an upper level trough over
the Great Basin and a ridge of high pressure over western Texas,
will continue through Saturday. Thus, daily rounds of strong to
severe weather will continue along and east of the central
mountain chain, with dry weather further west, except for a mix of
wet and dry thunderstorms over the upper Rio Grande Valley and
northwest mountains and highlands each afternoon and early
evening. Storms along the central mountain chain look to be
capable of heavy enough rain to produce hazardous runoff on recent
burn scars; however, the heaviest rain will fall over the far
eastern plains where some locations may receive 0.50-1.00" of rain
with locally higher amounts Friday through Saturday.
Sunday and Monday, a weak upper level low pressure system is
forecast to develop over central and southern CA. An upper level
disturbance is also forecast to eject northeastward from the base
of this upper low across eastern NM. As a result, present model
runs show drier air overspreading eastern NM Sunday and Monday
with the focus for dryline thunderstorms mainly over western TX.
The timing and track of the disturbance crossing eastern NM will
play an important role in determining where the dryline sets up,
and we can`t rule out that the dryline wont continue to be active
over at least our southeast plains on Sunday and potentially both
days.
Low level return flow is forecast to make significant progress
back into the forecast area Monday night and Tuesday, while the
upper low on the west coast begins to shift inland. This should
result in greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
potentially even over central and western areas where the
convection may produce more in the way of wind than rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
Severe storms will continue through approximately 02Z across east
central NM with damaging wind gusts and large hail likely. A
tornado is also possible. Areas from KCAO southward toward KCVS
will be impacted. Though the severe threat will diminish after
02Z, some SHRA and TSRA will continue well into the evening across
eastern NM. Outflow from the storms will push westward and bring
an east canyon wind into the ABQ metro area. Gusts near 30kt are
possible at KABQ. Low clouds will develop behind the boundary
across eastern NM with MVFR to IFR conditions likely. These low
clouds will erode between 13Z and 17Z, then another round of
showers and thunderstorms are expected across eastern NM Thursday
afternoon. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging
wind gusts once again.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
Increasing southwest flow aloft across western NM with the slow
approach of a Pacific trough through Friday will bring uptrending
winds and hot, dry and unstable conditions. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture
will remain from the central mountain chain eastward, where rounds
of wetting storms are likely with the potential for burn scar
flooding. Winds will exceed critical thresholds across portions
of western NM on Friday, bringing spotty critical fire weather
conditions. Winds are forecast to trend down by Saturday, but
elevated fire weather conditions are likely across western areas.
Winds will limit critical fire weather conditions on Sunday, but
much of the area will be hot, dry and unstable. Warming with a
ridge is forecast for Monday, followed by a weak Pacific low and
increasing chances for wetting storms going into the middle of
next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 51 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 41 78 43 76 / 5 5 10 20
Cuba............................ 45 76 47 77 / 5 5 5 10
Gallup.......................... 42 81 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 44 79 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 44 82 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 45 80 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 50 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 5
Datil........................... 47 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 39 82 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 50 86 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 40 71 41 69 / 10 20 10 30
Los Alamos...................... 50 76 53 74 / 10 10 10 30
Pecos........................... 48 75 50 74 / 20 30 30 50
Cerro/Questa.................... 42 71 46 71 / 20 20 20 40
Red River....................... 38 65 40 64 / 20 40 20 50
Angel Fire...................... 36 68 38 67 / 30 50 30 50
Taos............................ 41 76 44 75 / 10 20 10 30
Mora............................ 44 72 45 70 / 30 40 40 60
Espanola........................ 49 83 52 82 / 10 10 10 30
Santa Fe........................ 50 77 53 77 / 10 20 20 40
Santa Fe Airport................ 49 81 52 80 / 10 10 10 30
Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 83 59 82 / 0 5 5 20
Albuquerque Heights............. 58 84 57 84 / 0 0 5 10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
Belen........................... 52 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 5
Bernalillo...................... 54 86 56 86 / 5 5 5 10
Bosque Farms.................... 51 87 53 88 / 0 0 0 10
Corrales........................ 55 85 56 85 / 0 5 5 10
Los Lunas....................... 51 87 54 88 / 0 0 0 10
Placitas........................ 56 83 56 83 / 5 5 10 20
Rio Rancho...................... 56 84 56 84 / 0 5 5 10
Socorro......................... 55 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 77 51 77 / 5 10 10 20
Tijeras......................... 52 80 52 80 / 5 5 10 20
Edgewood........................ 47 79 49 79 / 10 10 10 30
Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 80 47 80 / 5 10 10 30
Clines Corners.................. 47 76 49 75 / 10 20 20 40
Mountainair..................... 47 80 50 81 / 0 10 10 20
Gran Quivira.................... 48 81 50 81 / 0 10 10 30
Carrizozo....................... 57 85 56 84 / 0 10 10 20
Ruidoso......................... 47 76 49 77 / 5 20 20 30
Capulin......................... 46 71 50 72 / 40 30 30 50
Raton........................... 45 76 49 76 / 30 30 30 40
Springer........................ 49 76 51 77 / 40 30 30 40
Las Vegas....................... 47 74 49 73 / 20 30 30 60
Clayton......................... 52 74 55 74 / 60 30 40 50
Roy............................. 51 74 53 73 / 60 30 40 60
Conchas......................... 55 81 57 80 / 50 20 40 60
Santa Rosa...................... 55 80 57 78 / 30 20 30 60
Tucumcari....................... 53 80 57 79 / 70 20 40 60
Clovis.......................... 54 77 58 77 / 60 20 30 60
Portales........................ 55 79 58 78 / 60 20 30 60
Fort Sumner..................... 54 81 58 81 / 30 20 30 60
Roswell......................... 62 86 63 87 / 20 20 20 40
Picacho......................... 53 80 55 81 / 10 20 20 40
Elk............................. 48 79 52 81 / 5 20 20 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...34
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1057 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Key Messages:
- Mild for most areas Today and Tomorrow
- Slight Chance for Frost along and North of I-94 Friday Morning.
- Warming and Continued Dry Trend through Memorial Day Weekend
Today and Tonight:
A low-level boundary will continue to move its way through our
region today, bringing cooler temperatures with high temperatures in
the upper 60s and low 70s today and tomorrow. This backdoor front
may stall briefly over portions of northeast Iowa today which may
allow our Iowa and more western Minnesota counties to have warmer
maximum temperatures than most with highs in the mid to upper 70s to
near 80 in spots. A few previous CAMS models had some indication of
showers trying to form along this boundary as it moves through
portions of central Wisconsin. However, latest guidance does not
favor this as dewpoints and moisture content will be unfavorable to
allow for any precip in our region.
Thursday Night through Memorial Day:
As the week comes to a close, this dry and quiet pattern will
continue with a substantial ridge locking itself over our region
through the coming days. Lower temperatures and clear skies towards
the end of the week brings a slight chance of frost overnight
Thursday into early Friday morning. This would mostly occur in areas
along and north of I-94 in low-lying spots with low temperatures in
the mid to upper-30s. However, it is unclear if saturation will be
reached in most locations with temperatures fairly departed from the
dewpoint at the surface. In locations where near saturation could
occur localized frost may be possible Friday morning.
With this upper-level ridge moving into our region we can expect a
gradual increase in our temperatures through the weekend with highs
on Friday in the mid-70s, increasing to the mid-80s by Memorial Day.
Conditions should remain dry through the weekend as well with around
900mb mixing heights and decent winds aloft will allow for some
mixing of dry air down to the surface. This will keep dewpoints low
and relative humidities in the 20 to 30 percent range across the
region on Friday and Saturday. Additionally, with the change in
500mb flow pattern due to this incoming ridge, a reduction in the
smoke aloft can be noted with a shift to a south to southeasterly
flow over the weekend. The RAP guidance tends to agree with this and
has the vertically integrated smoke fields pushing the smoke out of
our region by Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
VFR conditions expected across the area for the 06Z TAF period.
Scattered precipitation expected to remain northeast of KLSE.
Winds shift to southeasterly as the high continues a slow easterly
propagation.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JAR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
613 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Of course, it depends on who you ask...but if you ask me...beautiful
early summertime conditions are on tap for Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley!
Deep South Texas will remain on the eastern side of a mid level
subtropical ridge through the short term period. The northwesterly
flow aloft associated with the ridge will provide subsidence and
drier air to the region, helping to keep us rain-free through the
period. A weak cold front stalled over the Brush Country and
northern ranchlands of Deep South Texas earlier today, which has
kept the pressure gradient rather weak across our area and in turn
has helped to keep our east-southeasterly flow light to moderate
today. The front will stick around the vicinity and maintain these
lighter winds through the period. With drier air filtering in across
a good portion of the atmosphere over Deep South Texas, cloud cover
will be minimal, bringing beautiful mostly sunny skies...but watch
out for the extreme UV index! Temperatures will remain near normal
with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s
through the period. Patchy fog will be possible across the Brush
Country and some of the central portions of our County Warning Area
both early Thursday and Friday mornings, but should generally be
pretty shallow and short-lived.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Mainly benign weather still in play for the long-term portion of
the forecast, though some subtle changes may begin creeping in for
the latter half of the Memorial Day holiday weekend, particularly
for the Upper Rio Grande Valley and Rio Grande Plains.
Latest RAP analysis shows 500-mb ridge axis extending from SW of
Mexico (around latitude 17N) all the way up through Texas and into
the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains (~50N). This ridging aloft will
continue to be the main player in our sensible weather through
Saturday, as omega-blocking transforms into more of a Rex-block
over the eastern CONUS. By later Saturday into Sunday, model
consensus begins to translate the ridge axis eastward, with more
WSW flow aloft approaching the Rio Grande on the backside of the
ridge. This could allow some remnant showers from convection on
the Mexican plateau to reach Zapata and Starr counties as early
as late Saturday night, per deterministic global models and WPC
QPF guidance (which stops measurable QPF just shy of the Rio
Grande). Shaded some mentionable PoPs into that area to account
for this possibility (<20%).
Heading into Sunday and especially Monday, more general 500-mb
"troughiness" is progged to lie upstream, near the Big Bend region
of Texas/Mexico, with a short-wave or two ejecting out at times
and enhancing PoPs/thunder chances a bit. Right now, a Monday
short-wave appears to be the most potent. Again, nudged up NBM
PoP`s Sunday and Monday (by 5-7%) to better align with WPC QPF.
As the ridge`s influence wanes, time-height sections at BRO also
reveal somewhat deeper moisture (up to around 700mb) in the
Memorial Day through next Wed timeframe, which may allow the sea-
breeze to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms near the coast.
Not expecting this to be a "big deal", but NBM 90th percentile
24-hour QPF values are several tenths of inch for each period
across much of the CWA. Also, CWASP value is progged to be >50 at
times, mainly across the northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande
Plains, so will have to watch for the possibility of a few
stronger storms.
Temperatures look to remain pretty seasonal for late May, with H85
temps hovering around 17-18C through Sunday. Also, afternoon
dewpoints generally stay below 70F through Monday/Memorial Day, so
heat will not be oppressive. Temps and dewpoints do start to
increase a bit by the middle of next week.
Finally, will need to keep an eye on rip current risk with the
nice weather and holiday weekend likely to draw large crowds at
the beach. Gulf seas never really build above 3 ft., though NWPS
experimental rip current guidance does suggest a moderate risk
from Saturday night through Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF
period with light to moderate easterly winds. A bit of fog is
possible between 10Z and 13Z and included it in the TAFs for the
traditionally foggier KHRL.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Now through Thursday night...Let the favorable marine conditions
continue! Sorry surfers, but "Lake Padre" is here to stay for the
short term. Buoy 42020 has been reporting seas around 1 foot and
light to moderate ENE winds all day today (with a slight uptick
behind a very weak cold front draped over the northwest Gulf), and
no significant change from the current conditions is expected. Seas
will stay generally 2 feet or less through Thursday night with light
to moderate onshore winds.
Friday through Tuesday...Favorable marine conditions are likely to
persist for Memorial Day weekend boaters, as weak surface high
pressure over the western Gulf and a stalled front to the north
maintain a light-to-moderate onshore flow. Winds may be locally
enhanced to 10-15 knots on the Laguna Madre during the afternoons
with the sea-breeze, but no Small Craft Exercise Caution wording
should be needed. Gulf seas run 2-3 ft. through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 73 89 72 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 84 76 84 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 87 73 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...69-Farris
LONG TERM....53-Schroeder
AVIATION...58-Reese
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
640 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
An upper level ridge will slide into the region tonight and build
into the weekend. Rain chances appear slim to none, however, if
something was to develop it could be late Thursday morning into the
afternoon hours across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.
Despite various models showing a shortwave rotating around the ridge,
the HRRR is the only one currently showing an MCS developing across
West Texas tonight and tracking southeastward through the Northern
Rio Grande Plains. The HRRR has the MCS decaying just north of the
Brush Country with only a few showers possibly making its way into
our CWA. With limited moisture available tomorrow and low confidence
on the solution of the HRRR, opted not to increase PoPs out west at
this time. As for temperatures, seasonal highs and lows are expected
with highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s across the east and mid
90s across the west. Lows will remain mild with most of the CWA in
the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Mid-level ridging will keep dry conditions and seasonal temperatures
in place through the weekend, creating pleasant beach conditions for
Memorial Day Weekend. Highs from the mid 80s along the coast to the
mid 90s over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the
long term.
A mid-level trough is expected to push into South Texas from
northern Mexico between Sunday night and Tuesday. The ECMWF is
slightly slower than the GFS with both models increasing moisture to
PWATs around 1.75" (75th percentile) early next week. Therefore,
will maintain slight chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms
across South Texas Monday through Tuesday. Currently not expecting
much in terms of accumulation with NBM probability of QPF greater
than 0.1" only 15-25%. Increased moisture will raise relative
humidity and cause maximum heat index values to near 100 on Tuesday
over the southern Coastal Bend and Brush Country.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Few to scattered cumulus/VFR conditions, along with anvil cirrus
associated with convection over Coahuila, will continue through
the evening hours. Winds will become light again tonight. SREF
probabilities along with latest HRRR model show the best potential
for fog will be from Alice to Hebbronville and northeast to near
Beeville and Victoria late tonight. Will show IFR vsbys in fog at
ALI around 08Z with potential for LIFR vsbys/ceilings from 10 to
13Z Thursday. Will show a little better vsby at VCT with MVFR
vsbys around 09Z with potential for IFR vsbys from 10-13Z. The fog
will lift by 14Z Thursday with VFR conditions expected area wide
through the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Weak to moderate onshore flow between 10 to 15 knots will continue
tonight through tomorrow night. Weak northeasterly flow Friday
will shift back onshore at around 10 knots Friday night and
continue into early next week. Ridging over the region will keep
dry conditions through the weekend, but we could see rain chances
begin early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 72 89 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 69 88 69 90 / 0 10 0 0
Laredo 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 68 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 74 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 73 94 73 96 / 10 10 0 0
Kingsville 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 78 88 78 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...TMT/89
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1046 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
LATEST UPDATE...
Marine
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
Our frost advisory may not work out too well since the winds stay
up around 10-15 mph (with occasional higher gusts) for much of
the night and there is considerable high level cloudiness
streaming in from the northwest. Another big problem is the sfc
dew pt depressions are significant and even at 6 AM Thursday
morning still range from near 6F at MOP to as much as 16F at MKG
in HRRR guidance.
The best chance for any frost late tonight looks to be over
eastern sections (LAN/AMN/MOP) where lowest wind speeds and dew pt
depressions should occur after 06Z, with lesser chance over western
sections (GRR/MKG/LDM). It`s not really worth it at this point
to remove any counties from the frost headline, especially since
certain micro-climates could easily see the sfc winds die off and
temps plummet late at night. The freeze warning area looks fine,
especially if clouds end up being predominately thin.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
The cold front will passing the region will keep temperatures
cooler. However, mid and low levels remain dry so there will be
hardly any let alone any precipitation. Freeze warning
remains in effect for tonight into tomorrow morning. Along with
this is a frost advisory. The winds will remain gusty for the
first half of the overnight period but as the frost moves
southward and the high builds and the cold pool build the sfc will
decouple. Once winds become light temps will drop considerably
and areas of frost should form. A cooler but dry day is in storm
tomorrow.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
The long range fcst period will be characterized by a significant
moderating trend of temperatures through the holiday weekend and
through the early to middle portion of next week. Predominantly
dry wx is also expected with a sfc high pressure ridge in place
Friday night through Sunday. High temps will reach well into the
70s Sat/Sun and well into the 80s from Memorial Day through at
least the middle of next week and likely longer than that.
Also of note is the continued absence of precipitation from the
fcst. Some of our latest medium range guidance ensembles suggest
it may take until around the second week of June for the larger
scale wx pattern to transition to one that would bring pcpn and a
return to closer to normal temperatures. For the foreseeable
future though the wx pattern looks quite warm to potentially hot
and dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 806 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
VFR weather is nearly certain tonight and Thursday with cloud
bases above 12,000 ft. Sfc wind speeds and gusts (out of the east-
northeast) tonight are a bit more uncertain however.
A wind speed max of 30-40 kts at 1000-2000 ft AGL is shown to
impact the area for much of the night which could keep the sfc
winds up as well (12-15 kts sustained with gusts up to 25 kts).
The other scenario is if the sfc winds relax below 10 kts then
there would be a chance of low level wind shear with a speed
loss/gain of 20 kts or more-- peaking between 03Z and 09Z
tonight. The winds at 1000-2000 ft AGL decrease substantially
after 12Z with sfc winds around 10 kts expected on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1046 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
Wave heights have subsided to 2.5 ft at Ludington and the Beach
Hazard Statement for Mason and Oceana Counties was allowed to
expire at 10 PM (Along with the small craft advisory in the
nearshore.) Meanwhile, easterly flow is still shown by the HRRR to
increase substantially through 2 AM south of Whitehall so will
maintain the small craft advisory there. Highest winds and waves
are expected to be well offshore toward the 5 mile point overnight
but a few gusts near 30 kts are still possible closer to shore.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ037-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ038>040.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>847.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
SHORT TERM...Ceru
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
743 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Dry weather will prevail across central Illinois through the
holiday weekend. A back door cold front pushing through central
Illinois will bring breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures
for a few days. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 70s, with mid
to upper 70s on Friday. Highs will be back in the low to mid 80s
this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Back door cold front is about to edge into the northeast parts of
the forecast area this evening, with 7 pm temperatures near 70
degrees as close as Pontiac and lower 60s near Kankakee. Main
impacts besides the noticeably cooler conditions will be with a
period of windiness this evening. Northeast winds now gusting
from 25-30 mph from Bloomington to Decatur eastward, and this area
will be most favored to keep up such speeds through the evening.
Cirrus clouds will mix with the smoke layer aloft to produce
partly to occasionally mostly cloudy conditions tonight.
Forecast is largely on track this evening. Main adjustment was to
bump up the wind gusts a bit.
Geelhart
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
---------- Key Messages ------------
1. A cold front moves through this evening, ushering in cooler,
drier air for Thursday and Friday.
2. The Environmental Protection Agency forecasts the air quality to
become unhealthy for sensitive groups this evening/tonight across
central Illinois, primarily north of I-70.
3. Appreciable rain is unlikely (less than 20% chance) anywhere
across the CWA through at least next Tuesday. Rapid-onset (or
"flash") drought remains the main weather concern for central IL at
this time.
-----------------------------------
A cold front continues to progress towards central IL, but ahead of
the front it`s quite warm, with temps in the mid or even upper 80s
at 19z/2pm. Widespread diurnal cumulus have developed ahead of the
front as well. Across northern IL, behind the front, temps were only
in the mid 70s at this time. As the front moves through tonight,
northeasterly winds will gust around 25 mph and low temps drop into
the 50s. The EPA forecasts note that air quality across central IL
could be unhealthy for sensitive groups this evening. However, this
is primarily driven by ozone concentrations rather than wildfire
smoke, although smoke may also be a minor factor in the poor air
quality tonight. RAP smoke concentrations due show some near-surface
smoke behind the front, but concentrations are rather low so it
should not be as much of an issue as it was with the cold front last
Friday. Any near-surface smoke should push south of the ILX CWA by
Thurs morning.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to dominate the
local weather for a few days, keeping northeasterly sfc winds in
place. Temps will be coolest on Thurs, with highs only reaching the
low 70s. That continue northeast flow will advect an unseasonably
dry airmass into central Illinois, with afternoon dewpoints in the
mid-30s Thurs/Fri, and PWAT values falling to around 0.30". Such
PWAT values are below the 5th percentile of the ILX sounding
climatology for late May. With highs temps in the 70s, a modest east-
northeasterly wind, and the low humidity, it will feel quite
refreshing on Thurs/Fri.
A pleasant Memorial Day Weekend is in store, with gradually warming
temperatures and no impactful weather to speak of. A Rex Block
becomes established in the upper levels, with upper ridging over
the Great Lakes and an upper low over the southeast US. While
there was originally some uncertainty as to the placement of that
upper low, guidance has come into better agreement that it will
stay far enough south to prevent any shower activity from clipping
the southern portions of the CWA. Light easterly flow continues
into the weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the low 80s, then warm
to the mid/upper 80s by Memorial Day. Such temperatures are above
normal for Memorial Day, but not necessarily uncommon. Since the
1880s, roughly 40-45% of Memorial Days in central IL have had
highs over 80F. Dewpoints gradually increase over the course of
the weekend, but remain seasonably low, only reaching the 50s by
Memorial Day. The lack of high humidity should largely mitigate
any heat-related concerns, keeping heat indices below 90F.
Beyond Memorial Day, robust rain chances for central Illinois are
still hard to find. Guidance has been trending slower and slower in
breaking down/shifting away the Rex Block, a common trend with
these types of blocking patterns. Deterministic guidance keeps
modest upper level ridging across IL through much of next week,
with a subtle wave meandering over the west-central Plains, and
cutoff lows over California and the Carolinas. It all adds up to a
slow-to- evolve pattern with minimal rainfall across the ILX CWA.
From an ensemble viewpoint, the probability of rainfall exceeding
0.01" at any given point in the CWA is less than 20% through
next Wed morning. The chance of exceeding 0.01" of rain starts to
nudge higher during the latter half of next week, although that`s
not all that surprising when we`re looking at an ensemble beyond
day 7. If the QPF threshold is nudged upward to a slightly more
meaningful amount, like a tenth of an inch, the probabilities are
grim: less than a 20% of exceeding that amount on any day through
NEXT Saturday (June 3rd).
Temperatures are expected to remain above average next week as well,
with highs in the upper 80s or even low 90s. While there is no
drought present in central IL at this time, the prolonged stretch
of warm, dry weather will likely start to put some stress on
vulnerable vegetation. If you`re able, consider submitting
Condition Monitoring Observer Reports for Drought (CMOR) to help
monitor any developing drought impacts across the region. See the
top news section of our web page for more information about how
to submit these reports.
Erwin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Despite the hazy conditions aloft due to the smoke, VFR conditions
will prevail at the surface for the next 24 hours. Northeast winds
have set up behind a cold front that is moving southwest, and a
period of wind gusts 20-25 knots is expected mostly in the evening
at the TAF sites. Winds drop off a bit Thursday morning, but will
still remain sustained at 10-15 knots into the afternoon.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
716 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
As expected it`s been a busy evening across South FL with several
severe storms and several flood advisories across the area. Latest
HRRR shows activity continuing to slowly wane over the next
several hours. The Flood Watch continues until 10PM for the east
coast metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon/Evening with
Locally Heavy Rainfall...
A potentially active afternoon and evening ahead of us with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the
interior and east coast metro. These storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall with
localized flooding possible.
An upper level trough extends from the Southeast US over the FL
peninsula and eastern GOM, while a weak surface low and associated
stationary front sit over Central FL. This low will push
southeastward towards South FL by late tonight and allow for a
continuation of the unsettled pattern. With cooling temperatures
aloft (-11C at 500mb, <14kft FZL), and sufficient instability (>2000
J/kg MLCAPE) and shear (effective bulk shear of 20-30kts), there is
the potential for strong to severe storms to develop along
boundaries through the evening. The biggest concern at this time is
heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding due to very slow storm
motions. Isolated pockets of 4-6 inches of rainfall are not out of
the question today, but generally expecting a more widespread 1-3
inches of rainfall for the areas that see storms. Damaging winds,
hail, and frequent lightning are also potential threats. Convective
activity is expected to taper off late in the evening.
Another active convective day is on tap for Thursday with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily during the
afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be slightly
less favorable for severe storms as temps aloft warm a degree or
two, and wind profiles are a little weaker. However, any
thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy
rainfall, with localized flooding possible.
High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s for interior areas and low-mid 70s
for coastal areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
The unsettled pattern continues at least through the first half
of the long term period. A mid to upper level cutoff low is
progged to develop across the eastern CONUS and begin pushing
towards the Southeast late on Thursday. This feature will deepen
through the day on Friday and aid in the development of a surface
low just off the northeast Florida coast by late Friday. At the
surface, the remnants of a frontal boundary that was stalled just
to the north of the region will continue to allow for a rather
light west to southwesterly wind flow through the end of the week.
This will allow for rich tropical moisture to continue to advect
into the region as the latest forecast soundings show PWAT values
hovering between 1.6 and 1.8 inches. These features will allow
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across
the entire South Florida area and local waters Friday afternoon.
With cooling 500mb temps, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out
with the best chance for seeing stronger cells around the Lake
Okeechobee region.
Heading into the weekend, the upper level cutoff low likely will
linger across the Southeast and keep South Florida in a westerly-
southwesterly regime through the weekend. This will favor scattered
afternoon sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the interior and eastern metro areas each day. Some
guidance is showing a chance for mid-upper level dry air to reach
the area on Saturday and Sunday and this could potentially limit
coverage somewhat although it seems there will be enough lower-level
moisture to support at least a few showers and thunderstorms each
day, especially on Saturday.
Temperatures across the area will remain hot through the long term
period. Highs will likely be reaching the lower 90s and heat indices
in the upper 90s each day. The evenings will remain warm, with lows
dropping to the low 70s along the East coast and mid 60s in the
interior.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
Scattered thunderstorms will continue for several more hours this
evening and may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic
winds. Winds late tonight and overnight will be light and
variable, becoming SW 5-10 kts later in the morning before the sea
breezes kick in. Additional afternoon and evening showers/storms
expected Thursday which may lead to additional brief flight
restrictions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
South to southwesterly flow will prevail across Atlantic waters
today and tomorrow with northwesterly flow across Gulf waters. Low
seas will dominate outside of the Gulf Stream, with 2-3 feet within
the current. Showers and storms expected each day this week, which
may result in locally hazardous seas and winds.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
Along the Atlantic coast, onshore flow will result in a moderate rip
current risk along the Atlantic beaches. An elevated risk will
remain for the next several days across Palm Beach County beaches
due to an increasing NE swell.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 73 86 73 86 / 50 80 80 80
West Kendall 70 88 69 88 / 50 80 70 80
Opa-Locka 72 87 71 87 / 50 80 70 80
Homestead 70 87 71 86 / 60 80 80 80
Fort Lauderdale 73 84 72 85 / 50 80 80 80
N Ft Lauderdale 73 85 72 85 / 50 80 80 90
Pembroke Pines 72 87 71 86 / 50 80 70 80
West Palm Beach 71 86 71 85 / 60 90 80 90
Boca Raton 73 87 71 86 / 60 90 80 90
Naples 72 88 72 87 / 50 80 70 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-
172-173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...CMF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1027 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
Skies are clear across eastern TN and southwest VA tonight.
Dewpoints were adjusted slightly downwards to adjust towards
current observations. Otherwise forecast is on track and we will
remain dry through the overnight and morning periods. High
altitude smoke will continue to bring haze to our skies, sun was
unusually red at sunset, expect similar at sunrise given the RAP
persisting the smoke over our area for the near term. Given
current dewpoint depressions will take a while to shrink, not
expecting any fog overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
Key Messages:
1. Dry conditions this evening and tonight. Isolated to scattered
showers possible Thursday afternoon, mainly east of I-75.
2. Temperatures will remain near normal.
Discussion:
Current satellite imagery shows some afternoon CU development taking
place, with greatest coverage across portions of the southern valley
and Cumberland Plateau. This relatively higher coverage of CU aligns
well with areas of greatest SB instability(500-750J/kg) and moisture
availability via SPC Mesoanalysis. Some of the 12Z HREF members have
backed-off on the potential for a stray shower across the southern
plateau but some, such as the NAM Nest, continue to show the
potential. Given the presence of a fairly strong subsidence
inversion found in model derived soundings and recent satellite
trends, have opted to omit the slight chance PoPs with this
afternoon package. Perhaps a stray shower develops but don`t believe
it warrants the mentionable PoPs.
Clear skies and light winds will allow for ample radiational cooling
overnight. Lows are expected be a tad cool, with most valley
locations ranging in the 50s. The largely dry airmass will prevent
any notable fog development but some patchy river valley fog is
possible, mainly in southern areas where moisture is a bit more
favorable.
A shortwave impulse traversing mean flow aloft will drive a moisture
starved surface boundary through the region Thursday. This will
result in increasing chances of rain showers, mainly east of I-75,
favoring a diurnal trend. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
along with a rumble of thunder or two. The lack of synoptic support
and little to no shear will prevent any organized convection with no
severe or flooding threat anticipated. Afternoon highs will be
normal for late May.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
Key Messages:
1. Isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon, mainly south of I-40.
2. Unsettled weather with some rain showers Saturday through Monday.
3. Much cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday.
Discussion:
Thursday night an elongated upper trough extending from the Maine to
Missouri will gradually drift southward. Deterministic models agree
that the mean trough over the eastern U.S. will persist through the
weekend into early next week. The southern branch of the
aforementioned elongated trough forms a weak cutoff low early Friday
morning. Eventually this low gets caught up in a larger upper low
along the Gulf Coast. Then the entire system will meander over the
forecast area through Monday. The position of the upper low (lower
heights) and associated cloud cover/rainfall will drop daytime
temperatures into the lower 50s/70s Sat/Sun morning/afternoon.
Rainfall amounts appear to be limited due to the downslope (NE
winds) nature of this system. The total QPF from Friday afternoon
through Monday night ranges from around 0.5 inch at TriCities to
around a tenth of an inch at Chattanooga. Highest amounts will
likely be a the highest ridgetops of the Smokys (perhaps as high as
1 inch) and southwest Virginia (closer to 3/4 of an inch).
Thunder chances are very limited with this system. Friday afternoon
south of I-40 looks to be the best chances for isolated
thunderstorms to form. Confidence is low for this to occur. Over the
weekend, despite the colder core aloft, the instability for thunder
is nearly non-existent. Some light rain showers and definitely cloudy
conditions can be expected over the holiday weekend (just the
messenger).
For the remainder of the week, models lean heavily on diurnal
showers (scattered in nature) nearly each afternoon. Given the weak
upper flow and expected daytime highs each day (in the mid/upper
80s), have little to argue with to go against this solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023
VFR through the TAF period. Towards the end of the period, rain
chances will increase for northeast TN into VA including KTRI, so
included a VCSH for that terminal. Ceilings will be lowering for
KTRI but is expected to remain VFR for this period. Winds are
expected to be light, predominantly less than 10 knots for all TAF
sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 84 60 82 / 0 10 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 83 57 80 / 0 10 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 57 83 57 81 / 0 10 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 79 55 76 / 0 30 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
506 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
Main weather story over the next week will be increasing
thunderstorm chances through the end of this week, along with an
increasing potential for a few severe thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows troughing over the West
Coast and ridging over the Plains, with a steady stream of deep
Pacific moisture in between these two features stretching from the
Great Basin northward through central Canada. Visible/IR imagery
shows fairly tame cumulus fields over much of western SD and
northeastern WY, with more agitated cu along the northern periphery
of the Black Hills and across southern Campbell County. Mature
convection is ongoing over the Bighorns and near the higher terrain
of southern WY. At the surface, a trough extends north-to-south in
the lee of the Rockies from eastern CO northward into AB/SK. A
tightened pressure gradient across western SD is facilitating breezy
to windy conditions the area, with some gusts around 40 mph observed
so far this afternoon. Smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to
reside over the region.
Large-scale forcing for organized convection is limited across the
region this afternoon. Thunderstorms thus far have primarily been
tied to localized geographical features within our adjacent areas.
However, with continued daytime heating, we should gradually reach
convective temperatures. Axis of best instability extends through
eastern WY and far western SD in the vicinity of the aforementioned
surface trof, which could act as a focus for increased convergence
and convective organization later this afternoon into the evening.
MLCAPE values of 1-2 kJ/kg will only be paired with deep-layer shear
vector magnitudes of approximately 20 kt. While shear could
plausibly be a bit higher in areas where terrain is influencing low-
level flow, mode will likely be a mix of single and multicells given
this CAPE/shear combo. Southerly mean winds will keep storms largely
within the corridor from the Black Hills westward, with little to no
activity expected farther north/east over the SD plains. Overall
setup is not appreciably different tomorrow, so expecting a largely
similar scenario. However, the trof axis shifts eastward slightly,
and based on the RAP Smoke model, smoke concentrations could
decrease. If so, the unstable sector may shift/expand eastward with
slightly higher values of CAPE. Coverage could accordingly increase
modestly, but severe potential still looks limited with paltry shear.
As the midlevel trof approaches the area Friday and Saturday, deep
moisture advection, bulk shear magnitudes, and forcing for ascent
all increase. This should lead to increasing coverage and severity
of storms. While only a small portion of the area is currently in
SPC`s day 3 marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, the
CSU/MLP guidance suggests potential for a "slight" (level 2 of 5)
risk both Friday and Saturday, which seems reasonable given the
pattern`s progression. PWATs will broadly climb to 150-200% of
normal by Friday afternoon, as well, and remain at similar levels
into Saturday, which could support locally heavy rainfall.
A similar pattern persists through early next week, though
increasingly zonal flow should favor lower PWATs and less widespread
convection early in the week. Later next week, ensemble consensus
favors a highly amplified ridge over the central CONUS. Over our
region, the ridge will be susceptible to intrusions from shortwave
trofs and meandering vorticity maxima. Therefore, not expecting any
significant deviations from persistence in the 7-10 day forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 503 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023
Haze/smoke will wane through the period. Scattered TSRA with
local IFR conditions (heavy rain/small hail/gusty winds) are
expected through 06z over northeastern WY and far
western/northwestern SD. Marginal LLWS is expected on the SD
plains per a 30-35kt low level jet. Additional storms with local
IFR conditions will develop Thursday afternoon over much of the
area. Outside of storms, VFR conditions expected through the
period.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sherburn
AVIATION...Helgeson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
845 PM PDT Wed May 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...A persistent forecast expected each afternoon through
the remainder of the work week, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms across central Nevada and gusty southwest winds across
the entire forecast area. Temperatures will gradually decrease
through Friday before increasing once again through the holiday
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening in Esmeralda
County, though lightning counts have decreased and cloud tops have
trended warmer in the past hour. Tonight`s HRRR model trends suggest
a fairly quick demise of the storms that remain as the surface
stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. Similar conditions will
return tomorrow with thunder chances possibly developing a little
further south into northern Inyo County as well. Elsewhere, dry
conditions will continue.
The current forecast has the current trends well covered so no
update is necessary tonight.
-Outler-
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow.
Another conditionally convective setup day for our CWA including
Esmeralda and central Nye counties. A combination of meager upper
level ascent from a shortwave that has been in place since
yesterday, surface pressure drops this afternoon, and marginal
instability are coming together to produce marginally severe
storms mainly north of the HWY 6 corridor. As of 19Z, some storms
were firing over the high terrain of Mono and Esmeralda counties,
with much more robust convection from northern Nye in Elko`s area.
17Z HRRR soundings continue to show a stout amount of low level
dry air spreading in from the southeast and intensifying the
inverted V environment near Tonopah, that will do little to
influence CI, but will increase the possibility for strong
downburst winds in Esmeralda.
In fact, we have just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for
a storm cell that quickly initiated near Mina, NV. More of this is
possible through the afternoon, and potentially several rounds as
upper level dynamics bring waves of vort maxima over this area.
12Z HREF indicated up to a half inch of precip due to several
rounds of thunderstorms from Silver Peak and north. This is a
notoriously poor area for radar coverage so will be relying
heavily on satellite trends in this area to capture these threats.
A slow but steady drop in coverage continues tomorrow, with less
favorable, but still conditional setup for afternoon
thunderstorms again in Esmeralda and central Nye county, but
perhaps also bringing the Eastern Sierra and White Mountains into
play as CI focus areas as well. Similar threats would be possible
compared to today.
.LONG TERM...Friday through early next week.
There remains general agreement between the ECMWF ensemble means and
the GEFS means that the loitering trough over the western CONUS will
start to push eastward this weekend. This will allow heights to rise
over the Desert Southwest, which will increase temperatures to 3 to
5 degrees above seasonal averages through the holiday weekend. Those
planning to recreate outside should exercise caution, especially if
they have not spent much time outdoors yet this year. Those who have
not had a chance to acclimate to the warmer temperatures will be
more susceptible to heat-related impacts. Wear light-colored, loose-
fitting clothing, drink plenty of water - even when you`re not
thirsty, and eat light meals. Know and understand the symptoms of
heat exhaustion and heat stroke to ensure you and your loved ones
enjoy a safe holiday weekend.
There continues to be model disagreement regarding the extended-term
forecast. One solution has a secondary vort lobe pushing down and
along the aforementioned trough, which would halt its eastward
progression and prolong southwesterly afternoon winds and cooler
temperatures. Another solution favors weak southwesterly flow, which
would result in warmer temperatures in the Mojave Desert. The NBM
seems to favor the former solution, with slight PoPs across the
southern Great Basin through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the remainder of the afternoon
through mid evening, expect south-southwest winds between 15-25
knots, with gusts up to 30 knots possible. After 04Z, gusts should
start to subside with southerly winds up to 12 knots continuing
overnight. Winds are expected to become light and variable Thursday
morning before increasing out of the southeast through sunset. A few
afternoon cumulus possible over the higher terrain, otherwise clouds
will be above 20,000 feet.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Widespread south to southwest winds across the southern
Great Basin and Mojave Desert through the rest of the afternoon and
into the evening hours. Most locations will see speeds between 15-25
knots with a few locations seeing gusts 30-35 knots. There is about
a 10% chance of thunderstorms at KBIH, but most storms should
generally remain over the White Mountains and northeast into
Esmeralda County, Nevada. West winds will stay elevated and gusty at
KDAG this evening into the very early morning hours on Thursday,
while elsewhere after 04Z sustained speeds and gusts will start to
subside.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TB3
LONG TERM...Varian
AVIATION...Salmen
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