Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/06/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
559 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 All eyes and focus remains on convective initiation across the Rio Grande this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has kept portions of Deep South Texas west of I-69C in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Latest convective allowing model runs seem to agree on general location and timing of storm initiation (northern Nuevo Leon/Tamaulipas by mid-late afternoon) but continue to differ on the E/SE progression of the storms. Latest forecast soundings from around Zapata/Starr counties indicate a fairly stable boundary layer in place, though some destabilization occurs a few hours before 00z/7 PM. However, wind speeds below 700mb are fairly weak and are not very supportive to sustain any thunderstorms that are already ongoing. Nevertheless, organized storms that are able to cross the Rio Grande will be capable of tapping into a significant amount of CAPE (as well as bulk shear and steep mid-level lapse rates) and will be capable of producing large hail (>= 1") and damaging wind gusts (in excess of 60 mph). Most CAMs show storms quickly eroding and dissipating by sunset this evening, with a couple of CAM outliers indicating storms keeping their energy and pushing east of the I-69C corridor. Not anticipating that extent of eastward progression at this time, but will monitor. Residents living along the Rio Grande in Zapata and Starr counties will need to keep vigilant over the next few hours. Otherwise, mid-level ridging will maintain warm, humid, breezy, and hazy conditions through Saturday night. Skies become mostly cloudy again tonight but clouds should scatter out mid-late Saturday morning. Anticipate overnight low temperatures only reaching the mid- 70 next couple of nights, while daytime highs on Saturday will soar into the mid-upper 90s for most locations (perhaps touching 100 degrees near and around Falcon Lake). With a very humid air mass in place, heat index values will approach 110 degrees across Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr and western Hidalgo counties for a few hours during && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 The start of the long term forecast on Sunday through most of Monday is dry for Deep South Texas. However rain chances will start to pick up on Tuesday and for the rest of the long term period as a 500 mb high pressure moves away as an upper level low moves over the Pacific northwest. This will put Deep South Texas into a southwesterly flow pattern and allow for a series of mid-level disturbances to pass over the region. There is the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe thus monitoring how future model runs handles the development of the the convection will be important. The winds are expected to be out of the southeast for the long term forecast from Sunday through next Friday. This will help bring in moisture that will be needed for the development of any showers are thunderstorms. Another consequence of this will be in the hotter temperatures that will be present in the area. Low temperatures will be generally in the 70s, while the high temperatures will be in the range of upper 80s along the coast and beaches, and in the 90s for the rest of Deep South Texas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 Convection is firing along the front range of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico, mainly approaching the Upper Valley/Rio Grande Plains. The HRRR captures this activity, with most of it dying off in another three or four hours. That said, MVFR ceilings will develop after midnight with patchy light fog possible in spots around dawn, though winds will be a bit too strong for more than that. Ceilings will lift Saturday afternoon as breezy southeast winds develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 Now through Saturday Night...Light-to-moderate SE winds and Gulf seas of 2-4 ft will make for favorable boating conditions through the first half of the weekend. Winds pick up and become breezy on the Laguna Madre Saturday afternoon and Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible through sunset Saturday. Otherwise, marine conditions remain mostly benign. Sunday through Next Friday...Southeasterly winds will persist Sunday through next Friday. Winds at times could be moderate and rough seas are possible so that Small Craft Exercise Caution will be required due to a slightly enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is a possibility that a low end Small Craft Advisory might as also be needed based on the winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 92 76 88 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 74 94 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 76 94 76 94 / 20 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 99 75 97 / 20 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 85 76 82 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 89 74 88 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....69-Farris AVIATION...54-BHM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1046 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will lift north into the area, then generally stall and dissipate into the weekend, bringing with it mainly isolated to scattered light showers through Saturday. Atlantic high pressure will then build into the region during the early to middle part of next week, with temperatures expected to be well above normal and a chance of daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier conditions expected by Thursday following the passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Moisture advection over a ridge to our west has resulted in mid-level clouds streaming into the forecast area. Radar shows light returns from these SE moving, mid-level clouds located over the southern half of the forecast area. However low-level dry air will largely prevent rainfall from reaching the ground. As the low levels moisten overnight measurable rainfall will become a little more likely. A shortwave will also move into the area late tonight helping to support showers. CAMs suggest the sprinkles will spread northward into the central Midlands as the ridge axis shifts further east. Temperatures tonight will be in the 50s due to cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge will shift east over the Mississippi Valley on Saturday, maintaining the northwest flow aloft across the region. Diffuse front stalled over the area should dissipate, but short wave energy aloft, and moist mid levels of the atmosphere should support mainly isolated light showers across much of the area during the day. The cloud cover will aid in keeping temperatures somewhat below normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Atlantic high pressure will establish a southerly flow across the area on Sunday. Isolated convection is certainly possible given suitable moisture in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere, but model guidance has backed off on coverage quite a bit. The southerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures, but cloud cover will limit overall heating with highs in the lower 80s. Temperatures Sunday night will be more mild, with lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ensembles indicate the upper ridge shifting eastward, resulting in a continued warming trend into mid-week with above normal temperatures. A series of short wave disturbances, a sufficiently moist atmosphere and diurnal heating will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon and evening through Wednesday. A cold front will pass through Wednesday, with cooler and drier conditions expected by Thursday. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper disturbance crossing the region with adequate moisture in place is result in some light showers impacting AGS/DNL while staying mainly south of CAE/CUB/OGB. Forcing is generally weak and low level dry air in place is preventing any cig/vis restrictions associated with light showers. Overall moisture should gradually increase some overnight but model time heights showing cigs should remain VFR through much of the period. NBM and HRRR showing some MVFR cigs developing over central GA during the predawn hours and possibly spreading northeastward into the CSRA and hinting at possible MVFR cig restrictions after 12z AGS/DNL. Given increasing low level moisture decided to go ahead and carry MVFR cigs AGS/DNL after 13z. Fog is possible at prone AGS/OGB but given extensive cloud cover overnight do not think it is likely and therefore have not included at this time. Winds will be light and variable to calm overnight before picking up from the southeast to south after 15z Saturday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of MVFR CIG restrictions possible Sat/Sat night into Sunday morning. Scattered convection possible in the afternoon Mon/Tue. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
529 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Marginal to Slight Risk in effect through this evening for the severe thunderstorm threat across portions of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraksa panhandle. Primary hazards will include lightning, strong winds, and potentially large hail. 2) Thunderstorm chances are more isolated tomorrow with the best chances at higher elevations with snow showers in the mountains. 3) Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Saturday with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 30s to 40s. DISCUSSION: Thunderstorm initiation has begun across far southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska panhandle where a moisture convergence boundary has set up. In addition, there is a line of discrete cells firing up along a line from near Bill, WY to Alliance, NE where a stationary front is currently positioned. The primary limiting factor for the thunderstorms at the moment is the lack of shear. Due to this, the storms are quite "pulsey" at the moment. The RAP is showing better shear values coming into play later this evening as the LLJ develops, increasing flow aloft, mainly across the Nebraska panhandle this evening. Unfortunately, as the better shear values begin to come into play, the instability is not as potent due to it being well past peak daytime heating. However, if the discrete cells do form into a line as many HiRes models are showing, the increased shear will help sustain them into overnight hours. Tomorrow, much drier air moves into place at lower and mid-levels, and as the trough shift eastward, so does the better moisture and instability. The best chance for thunderstorms will be in higher elevations and in the mountains. Any thunderstorms that do develop and move off the higher terrain will likely be high-based and will not produce much, if any rainfall. There is also a marginal High Wind threat, primarily in wind-prone areas of southeast Wyoming (Arlington and Bordeaux) with strong westerly winds and subsidence in place. West wind gusts 40 to 50 mph are possible in the afternoon, mainly between noon and 6 pm. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 Medium to long range models continue to show a rather unsettled weather pattern for most of next week with maybe a brief lull in thunderstorm activity earlier in the week around Monday. All models show generally the same pattern with the Omega Block over central Canada gradually breaking down with a train of storm systems moving out of the Pacific undercutting the broad ridge. West to southwest flow aloft is expected for the central Rocky and adjacent high plains as these Pacific storm systems move northeast across the Great Basin Region and into the northern Rocky Mountain Region. Several upper level disturbances will push across the forecast area every 18 to 24 hours, the strongest of which looks to be arriving on Tuesday. In addition, an active jet stream will remain nearly stationary over the forecast area and near the Colorado/Wyoming border Sunday through Wednesday, with individual jet streaks embedded in the mean flow aloft. With areas of enhanced upper level difluent flow, could see a more widespread coverage of thunderstorms than current models suggest. May see an area of more organized convection/squall lines east of the Wyoming border later on Tuesday due to moist southerly flow and a potent low level jet developing Tuesday night. Kept POP on the high side and higher than most guidance, especially across southeast Wyoming and southern Nebraska. Kept high temperatures near or slightly above average for this time of the year and generally in the 60s to mid 70s for most areas. Morning lows will be seasonably cool, but around average. By late wednesday through the end of next week, models continue to hint to a cooler and much wetter pattern as a stronger Pacific storm moves onshore along California and ejects east over the western United States or the Great Basin region. Models are having trouble placing where this storm will track. The GFS is more progressive and further north, but shows the storm stalling and then gradually retrograding west by the end of the week, resulting in prolonged rainfall and mountain snowfall along with cooler than normal temperatures. The ECMWF, Canadian, and around half the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members show a warmer, but considerably wetter pattern as the storm system stalls near the four corners region on Thursday. Will have to monitor this potential over the next several days with plentiful moisture in easterly flow and excellent dynamic lift for this time of the year. With 700mb temperatures between 1c to 5c, hydro concerns are possible due to mountain rainfall. However, if the GFS verifies there will be plenty of colder air for snow above 8000 feet. Regardless of which scenario verifies, it looks pretty wet for the eastern plains. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 521 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 Wyoming TAFS...A passing weather disturbance will produce isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity at Laramie and Cheyenne until 02Z. Otherwise, scattered clouds from 8000 to 10000 feet AGL will prevail. Decent surface pressure gradients will produce wind gusts to 35 knots at all terminals until 02Z, and to 30 knots after 14Z Saturday. Nebraska TAFS...A passing weather disturbance will help produce scattered thunderstorms producing localized MVFR ceilings and visibilities until 03Z, with winds gusting up to 45 knots near storms. With conditions becoming more saturated overnight, expect IFR ceilings under 1000 feet at Chadron and Alliance from 06Z to 13Z. Elsewhere, scattered to broken clouds from 8000 to 10000 feet AGL will exist, with scattered clouds around 10000 feet AGL at all terminals after 15Z Saturday. Surface pressure gradients will be sufficient to produce wind gusts to 27 knots until 03Z, and to 30 knots after 15Z Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 Minimal fire weather concerns over the next week as southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle experiences daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. A slow moving low pressure system over Utah will continue to bring moisture north into the area. This southwest flow continues through much of next week with daily chances for wetting rains. Afternoon humidity stays well above critical levels with fair to good overnight recoveries. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for southwest Carbon Co mainly concerning areas around the Little Snake River near Baggs until 9 PM today. Slightly above average temperatures will continue today and this weekend, but will not be 10-15F degrees above average like earlier this week that led to rapid meltoff and rising river levels. Latest hydrographs observations at Baggs and Savery both show overnight minimums in river stages equivalent to those observed last night. This is promising, suggesting that daily crests should not exceed previous day`s stages. Regardless, minor flood stage still looks achievable today and therefore will need to monitor river observations before deciding to cancel/extend the flood warning beyond midday today. Most convection today should remain east of the Laramie Range and therefore should not have compounding effects with rain on snow not expected. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LK LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...GCC HYDROLOGY...MB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
634 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday evening) Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 The main concern for today will be the severe weather potential across the area. Synoptically, a trough is ejecting out of the southern Rockies. At the surface two surface lows are seen across east Colorado with the northern most one roughly around Morgan county and the southern located near Prowers county. Surface analysis does show a dry line roughly across the Palmer Divide and a pseudo warm front draped across roughly Interstate 70. Overall CAMS have been indifferent on how convection does pan out for today. The HRRR keeps the bulk of the severe storms in Nebraska whereas the NAMNEST does fire discrete supercells off the dryline. Forecast soundings are favorable for 2 inch hail as the primary threat with MUCAPE greater than 2000 j/kg, effective bulk wind difference around 50 knots and steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C. Severe storm initiation is expected around 21-22Z around the Goodland area before storms move to the NNE. Bunkers Storm motion with an left movers to the NNE around 20-30 mph and any right moving cells moving easterly at 10-15 mph. RAP hodographs do show straight line hodographs would would support cell interactions, if this could occur along a boundary then support a conditional tornado threat. With this initial round if a tornado where to happen it would across the northeast portion of the area roughly Decatur, Norton, Red Willow, Hitchcock counties. There is the potential for a second round of storms with an advancing cold front from the west. CAMS have been in relatively decent agreement with this occurring. RAP soundings do suggest that severe weather could be possibility with this round of storms as well with hail up to ping pong ball size, damaging winds, and perhaps the potential for a quick QLCS spin-up tornado as the LLJ increases and elongates hodographs. This round of potential severe weather looks to begin around 9pm MT near the Kansas/Colorado border and then move east. Any severe potential is forecasted to be out of the area around midnight MT. Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 40s to the mid 50s across the area. Guidance has been suggesting at fog/low stratus working around the low from the northeast so did introduce patchy fog into the forecast. Saturday, the longwave trough continues synoptically, with the relative more moist air mass moving to the east.Winds will be relatively light for High Plains standards around 10 mph over the majority of the area. Across east Colorado another surface low develops during the afternoon which will allow winds to become a bit more breezy around 15-20 mph. The over flow isn`t the greatest around 15-20 knots, however inverted v soundings in place along with some pressure falls should help mix some near 30 knot winds to the surface during the afternoon hours. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado due to RH values falling into the low teens and the potential for wind gusts of 30-35 mph at times. A slight chance of showers and storms does exist across western Yuma County during the late afternoon hours. Severe weather does not look likely at this time. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to the east and mid 70s to the west. Sunday will see the warm temperatures continue in the upper 80s to the east and mid to upper 70s to the west. A surface low is forecast to be over the area which should help keep winds around 10-15 mph despite RH values falling into the low teens again. As a result of the lighter winds fire weather currently does not look to be a concern. A few showers and storms are again possible north of I-70 but is dependent on the exact position of the surface low. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 Trough in the western CONUS Monday and Tuesday will continue the southwest flow over the central plains. Precipitation chances will be limited on Monday due to overall lack of instability, but by Tuesday do see some decent low level moisture back into the area and moderate instability is currently forecast. Coupled with deep layer shear of around 50 kts severe storms will be possible on Tuesday. Temperatures continue above normal. Relative humidity does drop below 20 percent in western areas on Monday, but winds are forecast to be light, mitigating fire weather concerns. For the period Wednesday through Friday...strength and track of the western trough is not being handled very consistently by the models, with even more differences compared to previous runs. The GFS lifts it into the northern plains, a track which would dry slot the area for a couple of days, then digs a trough into the plains by Friday which would bring back precipitation chances. However, the ECMWF stalls the system as an upper low near the Four Corners which ultimately dissipates under the building western ridge. The ECMWF would bring better chances for precipitation Thursday and Friday with vorticity lobes rotating around the closed low. The solutions are radically different and do not have much confidence in either one at this time. Persistence forecast would keep daily POPs going and just a slight cool down in temperatures but still above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri May 5 2023 GLD: Adverse aviation conditions associated with isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening.. mainly in the 03-07Z time frame. Confidence is low with regard to whether or not thunderstorms will develop. MVFR-IFR conditions associated with fog and/or stratus are possible for a few hours on either side of sunrise Saturday morning, though, yet again.. confidence is well below average. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Breezy (15-25 knot) SSE winds will become light/variable by ~03Z this evening.. as a weak lee cyclone progresses eastward over northwest KS. Winds will shift to the N by ~09Z.. as the aforementioned lee cyclone progresses eastward into central KS. Light/variable winds are anticipated to prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the TAF period. MCK: Adverse aviation conditions associated with isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening.. mainly in the 03-07Z time frame. Confidence is low with regard to whether or not thunderstorms will develop. MVFR-IFR conditions associated with fog and/or stratus are possible for a few hours on either side of sunrise Saturday morning, though.. confidence is below average. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. 10-15 knot E winds will shift to the NE by ~03Z this evening as a weak lee cyclone progresses eastward into northwest KS. Winds may become variable for a period thereafter, shifting to the N by ~09Z.. as the aforementioned lee cyclone progresses eastward into central KS. Winds will become variable again after sunrise.. persisting through the remainder of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...Vincent
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
946 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances return late today into Saturday with the arrival of a warm front. A late-spring or early-summer like weather pattern will develop over the area early next week, with temperatures trending warmer and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms uptick. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 940 PM Friday: A band of light showers across northeast Georgia continues to dissipate as already nebulous forcing lifts away from the area. A few isolated showers may linger through the overnight across the far western portions of the CWA, but most locations will remain dry. High clouds will stream across the region with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The ongoing forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments to PoPs were needed. Upper-level ridging will gradually build across the central and southern CONUS while mid-level shortwaves track overhead the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through the near term fcst period. At the sfc, high pressure will sink southward out of eastern Canada into the eastern CONUS through the period. This pattern will mostly act to shunt rain chances well to our west and south this afternoon. However, this evening into Saturday morning, both CAMs and global models show rain chances increasing across the western half of the CWA. Since models have generally been trending lower in regards to rain chances the last several model runs, went ahead and lowered PoPs to chance across the western zones through Saturday afternoon. Also removed any thunder potential as instability looks to be fairly limited. Guidance has also been trending lower on cloud cover this afternoon, especially across the northern zones. Current visible satellite loops show mostly sunny skies, along with some fair wx cu, across the northern half of the CWA. Cloud cover looks to remain limited over these same areas overnight into Saturday. Upper cloud cover hangs around elsewhere today into tonight, with low to mid- level clouds increasing on Saturday. Highs today will be similar to yesterday`s and around 2-5 degrees below climo. Lows tonight should be near to a few degrees above climo thanks to upper-level cloud cover. Highs on Saturday will be around 3-7 degrees below climo across the western zones where mostly cloudy skies are expected. Highs will be around 1-3 degrees below climo across the NC Piedmont and northern NC Foothills where cloud cover will be less extensive. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday: Upper-level ridge over the MS Valley will slowly encroach the region during the forecast period, but begins to break down in the process. Clusters of vort lobes will ride within the peripheral of the ridge and sink downstream on the lee-side of the ridge. Better moisture advection will filter into the from the southwest Saturday night into Sunday as the surface high slips offshore the Southeast Coast. A new development from the HRRR shows a decaying MCS feature running with the alluded vort lobe and scraping the western fringe of the CFWA overnight Saturday. In this case, the temperature forecast for Sunday could become tricky as lingering convective debris could keep highs from reaching its full potential, especially across the Upper Savannah. Otherwise, PWATs will rise (1.00"-1.50") on Sunday as low-level southwesterly flow becomes better established. The upper ridge will breakdown with continuous vort lobes riding within the northwesterly flow aloft. Model guidance show the potential for more MCS-like features developing across the OH-Valley on Sunday, but with higher heights in place over the CFWA, expect the warmer air aloft to help keep most activity capped, with the exception of a few isolated upslope showers/storms in the NC mountains, with a small chance of this activity breaking containment outside of the mountains. Temperatures should begin the recovery process on Sunday with values climbing back to near-normal. An unsettled pattern begins to take place Sunday night, especially by Monday as the ridge breaks down even more and vigorous shortwaves traverses across the CFWA. MCS-like features will drift within these areas of vort energy as they continue to reside within the west-northwesterly flow aloft and allow for an uptick in PoPs/convection. With an increase in moisture, warmth, and instability, thunder probabilities will be situated in the forecast through the end of the short-term. The overall severe threat is low, but definitely nonzero, with isolated straight-line damaging gusts being the main impact if anything arises. Temperatures will increase another category or two on Monday compared to Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday: Upper-level flow gradually becomes quasi-zonal as the ridge breaks down across the eastern-third of the CONUS. Vigorous shortwaves will continue to ripple through the west-northwest flow aloft Tuesday and Wednesday as the surface high shifts further offshore into the western Atlantic. Moisture will be maximized through Wednesday before a back door cold front sinks south through the CFWA by Wednesday night. Ahead of this boundary, expect temperatures to remain 5-10 degrees above normal, with unsettled weather continuing. As the front approaches Wednesday, shear parameters uptick, which could lead to a better environment for more organized and stronger storms. The forecast is still pretty far out, but a trend worth watching. The back door boundary should slip well south of the CFWA by Thursday and allow for drier air to settle in. Model guidance place a surface high over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic behind the front. A short-lived wedge-like configuration could settle over the region as a result. At the same time, thicknesses will become elevated as an upper ridge sets up shop over the eastern-third of the CONUS by the end of the work week. This should help offset temperatures and allow for values to be near-normal despite the potential for a cool wedge during this time. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Showers will remain confined to northeast Georgia with a brief shower possible at KAND this evening. Otherwise, high clouds will stream across the region and eventually lower but remain VFR. An MVFR stratus deck will likely edge into northeast Georgia early tomorrow morning, but confidence is low with regards to how far north it makes it. Winds will be light to calm overnight and will remain light out of the south/southwest tomorrow. Outlook: Episodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected Sunday into early next week which could bring temporary restrictions to area terminals. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CAC NEAR TERM...AR/TW SHORT TERM...CAC LONG TERM...CAC AVIATION...TW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 Lingering low level moisture has led to some stubborn low cloudiness lingering over southern KS for the afternoon hours. Latest SREF seems to have the best handle on the cloud cover, with the cloud cover expected to slowly erode for the evening hours, but slowly returning across central KS late tonight as SW flow and warm advection increases across the region. Latest RAP shows low level moisture transport increasing out of OK into portions of central KS by early on Sat morning, which may lead to a stray shower/storm across NE KS, possibly along the NE fringes of the forecast area. Will keep any shower/storm mention out of the forecast for now, but given increasing warm air aloft, chances look slim. If any activity develops it will quickly lift NE into NE KS and SE Neb by sunrise Sat. The stout warm advection with a SW downslope component will lead to a warming trend for the weekend. Latest 1000-850H partial thickness values suggest max temperatures will climb into the lower 90s for Sat and possibly into the mid 90s for Sunday. Given the dry antecedent conditions and the lack of rainfall, max temperatures may even go slightly higher than we are currently forecasting. NAM/WRF suggests max temps in the middle to upper 90s. For now will go with model consensus and keep temps in the middle 90s for Sunday. With the warm air, comes drier air for most locations for Sat and again on Sun. A dry line looks to push across the forecast area on Sunday, and be situated over SE by Sun afternoon, but a warm elevated mixed layer (cap) will probably preclude any shower/storm development for Sunday afternoon for SE KS. If the cap can erode enough for convection to develop, an isolated strong/severe storm may occur, given moderate instability, decent directional shear but marginal shear. Plan on keeping a low pop in for this chance. Latest consensus forecast shows chance pops for most locations for Sunday night, but a warm elevated mixed layer will probably keep most locations dry, with better chances further south across OK. Will maintain a chance pop for now, but expect changes to this time frame. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 Lots of uncertainty on how the beginning of the week will unfold, as weak SW flow continues across the area, with a series of weak disturbances moving across the area. After a dry day on Mon, shower/storm chances look to increase for Tue through Thu. Latest deterministic models suggest "hit or miss" evening and nighttime chances of showers/storms, with the most likely chance of seeing widespread showers/storms being Tue night and again on Thu night, as a cold front stalls over central KS, with chances in the warm sector south of the boundary. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 MVFR cigs have finally mixed out across south central Kansas but this may be short-lived as low cigs try to redevelop between 03-09Z across much of the area before mixing east and northeastward thereafter. A transient shower or storm may impact portions of south central or southeast KS tonight as some low level moisture transport/isentropic upglide develop over the area but better chances are expected to remain north and east of our forecast area impacting northeast KS. A trough of low pressure will move into central KS on Sat allowing westerly and southwesterly winds to impact the region on Sat afternoon. Any lingering low cigs across southeast KS early Sat are expected to mix out by 16Z with VFR prevailing thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 60 91 62 94 / 0 0 0 10 Hutchinson 58 91 59 93 / 10 0 0 10 Newton 61 91 62 93 / 10 0 0 10 ElDorado 61 91 63 92 / 10 0 10 20 Winfield-KWLD 61 92 63 93 / 0 0 10 10 Russell 58 89 54 91 / 10 0 10 0 Great Bend 56 89 54 91 / 10 0 0 0 Salina 61 91 60 93 / 10 0 10 10 McPherson 60 90 59 93 / 10 0 0 10 Coffeyville 63 89 67 90 / 0 10 10 20 Chanute 63 90 67 91 / 10 0 10 20 Iola 62 89 66 91 / 10 10 10 30 Parsons-KPPF 63 89 67 91 / 10 0 10 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
712 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Forecast looks to stay mostly dry through early Sunday, with temperatures near or just below normal. Warming trend kicks off Sunday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, a weak cold front sinks southward, bringing a subtle cooling and drying trend. && .UPDATE... Minor changes to the hourly temperatures, otherwise forecast is on track. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak high pressure will reside across the area under a northwest flow aloft through Saturday. Any mention of pops have been removed from the forecast via the guidance trends. Taking a look at satellite imagery, the shortwave across Texas just isn`t impressive from a moisture standpoint and the dry air over our area is seemingly going to prevail. Still a lot of mid and high level cloud cover to move across from time to time however. Regarding temperatures, the cooler guidance has been the preferred numbers for lows although more cloud cover tonight may skew this bias but overall expect middle 50s or so. Saturday`s highs will be similar to today somewhat modulated by the cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... While high pressure at the surface will be offshore Saturday night through Sunday night, mid level ridge lingers over the Southeast during the short term period. Therefore subsidence inversion around 700mb persists through Sunday. Have lowered pops quite a bit for Sunday afternoon and capped at 20%. May see isolated convection along sea breeze or with diurnal heating with low level return flow, but will be tough for more than a couple of storms to develop. Surface trough passing to the north Sunday night may bring some showers to northern parts of the CWA, with pops again fairly low. Low temps Saturday night in the upper 50s with highs in the low 80s away from the coast Sunday. Bit warmer in the low 60s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid and upper level ridges flatten out for start of next week, leading to several shortwaves moving across the area Monday into Tuesday. Both days will feature above normal temps in the upper 80s, approaching 90F. Monday looks to be a good day for typical diurnal and sea breeze convection, with sufficient instability and plenty of sunshine. Bit more cloud cloud cover Monday night into Tuesday from a stronger shortwave, though some clearing will allow Tuesday to be another scattered storm day. A weak cold front drops south Tuesday night, with slow movement south of the area Wednesday into Thursday. Dry air mass with a brief high pressure wedge Wednesday and Thursday will drop temps to near normal. Only rain chance for back half of the week is Wednesday afternoon, where I kept in low pops along sea breeze to account for dry air and subsidence timing. High pressure shifts offshore end of next week with weak onshore flow returning. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through 00 UTC Sunday. Only concern is a small smoldering fire from a lighting strike earlier in the week northeast of the airport. MVFR HZ/FU occurred last night but the 21 UTC RAP is showing winds aloft light from the south then northwest towards morning. With these trajectories the smoke should disperse away from the airport. Elsewhere, winds will become calm after sunset. Winds will become west-southwest inland and souther at the coast after 1400 UTC with wind maximum winds speed of 6 to 8 knots. Extended Outlook...There is a moderate chance of MVFR ceilings Saturday night and Sunday. Otherwise VFR. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Very quiet conditions to prevail across the coastal waters under weak high pressure. Winds are expected to maintain a southerly component with single digit wind speeds. Significant seas of 1-2 feet expected. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Light southwest flow Saturday night will strengthen Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure shifts offshore and several waves pass to the north tightening the gradient. Winds peak late Sunday through Tuesday, sustained 15-20 kts and gusts to 25 kt. Weak cold front drops south Tuesday night with winds turning north-northeasterly on Wednesday. Seas 2 ft Saturday night and Sunday build to 4-5 ft for early Monday through early Tuesday with the S wind wave/fresh swell. Seas drop to 2-3 ft Wednesday. Best chance for scattered thunderstorms over the coastal waters in the short term will be Monday evening/night as a shortwave passes over the area. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RH NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RH MARINE...SHK/VAO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
909 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 No significant changes anticipated to the overnight forecast. Afternoon/evening convection is waning, with essentially one cell remaining over Chandeleur/Breton Sounds. This will be handled with the usual late evening CWF update. Areas that didn`t see evening convection are a bit warmer than the hourly temperature grids would indicate, but that`s not going to affect overnight lows any. Early look at the 00z convection allowing models indicates that the rest of the night should be quiet convectively, with thunderstorms refiring during the mid to late morning hours across western portions of the CWA. This is handled relatively well by the current forecast package. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 As the previous update said it was a rather busy morning with the convection quickly moving through the area but by 1430z it was mostly confined to the Marine areas. After that we did warm up quickly across most of the area and convection started to pop once again but not quite as widespread as initially thought along the boundary. Instead more convection refired over coastal Ms and the Northshore while we are still watching a strong bow echo move southeast out of south-central MS and towards southeastern/coastal MS. Biggest concern in the short term is the convection right now but this activity should start to dissipate as we hit sunset with most if not all of the rain done before 2z. Prior to that though not much has changed from what was discussed in the midday update. There is a lot of instability to tap into but mid lvl lapse rates may not be quite as steep as previously thought. Boundary is still draped across the region only slightly farther north than earlier but still bisecting the region. The mid lvl flow is a little weaker over the western half of the CWA and that may be what is leading to most of the convection remaining mostly east of I-55. This activity will likely continue to develop and increase in coverage over the next few hours but as storms become more numerous the severe risk would drop but the heavy rainfall potential will increase and localized flash flooding could become a problem for poorly draining areas. Again this activity should start to really shut down shortly after sunset then the question is when and if we get another round or two early tomorrow(around sunrise again) or just during the day. First confidence is rather low with what happens tomorrow but really leaning on the persistent GFS, 18z 3km NAM, and NBM. HRRR has been all over the place, 12z says tomorrow will be nice and rain free 18z says maybe some storms. ECMWF has some really odd output regarding convection during the day tomorrow which is interesting to say the least and makes it highly questionable right now. The main player is a subtle impulse that appears to be associated with convection currently firing along the dryline in west/central TX. If this is related then convection could be mid late morning tomorrow and into the early afternoon hours. Possible fly in the ointment would be if that convection consolidates into a large MCS and tries to surge east again like last night/this morning. Indications are that convection would wane and then refire so not going to play the surging MCS while also maintaining its structure. This would mean high rain chances for most of the area but it looks like the best chance for storms would be across SELA. Southwest MS may luck out and be just far enough north to miss the bulk of the storms which would be great for all of the activities going on tomorrow and tomorrow night up there. As for impacts, not looking as favorable for strong to severe storms as we probably won`t be quite as unstable thanks to rain clouds already occuring during the prime hours to heat area. This will keep the CAPE values down and lapse rates not as steep. Also outside of the convective feedback issues the mid lvl flow doesn`t appear to be nearly as strong. Locally heavy rain may be the bigger concern especially if storms can`y move out fast enough. No change in the available moisture with PWS still hovering just below 2" but much like today no real jet dynamics to help with the divergence aloft but possibly just some broad diffluence. Heavy rain likely to be dictated by cell speed/interaction and/or training of storms. Much quieter day on Sunday with the ridge dominating the region and keeping the area rather warm. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 Medium range models continue to indicate more of a Summer like fee with warm LL temps leading to upper 80s and even lower 90s. Daily rain chances given the mostly zonal flow with multiple weak impulses coming across. Models significantly diverge for the back half of the week. Otherwise with the focus primarily on today and tomorrow no major changes made and the previous Long Term Discussion has been appended below. /CAB/ Long Term... Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023 We move into a very summer-like pattern during the week next week. Global models are in good agreement through the forecast period. With the good agreement, NBM outputs are used in the forecasting. The models show an upper ridge of high pressure moving to the east over the weekend bringing a somewhat barotropic pattern to the upper levels. At the surface we fall between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. A combination of shortwaves moving through the upper levels and southerly winds between the two surface systems bringing moisture out of the Gulf give a good setup for afternoon convection. Rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon are on tap each day with afternoon POPs running around 30%. No severe weather is expected, although gusty winds (say 30mph) are possible and lightning will accompany the thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for highs and lows 70s overnight. With the southerly flow out of the Gulf, RH values should remain above the low 60%s even at the driest afternoon conditions. By the end of the period, Thursday into Friday, upper ridging amplifies with a strong low pressure system moving out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains. [Schlotz] && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 TSRA currently impacting KGPT and KASD, and could potentially impact KNEW and KMSY over the next hour or two, with temporary IFR or lower possible. Outside of convection, MVFR ceilings expected later tonight with at least a low end threat of IFR conditions. Once again, question on Saturday will be the potential for convective development. Convection allowing models are again all over the place regarding whether development occurs and where. Looking at moisture availability on forecast soundings, certainly enough moisture for convective development, so will approach it carrying potential for development with VCTS. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 A very persistent south to southeast wind of around 10 knots is expected through the middle of next week as a broad ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected with this onshore flow. The only big concern will be the threat of locally strong wind gusts with any thunderstorm activity that moves over the waters during the afternoon hours. This threat will be highest in the tidal lakes and sounds. Otherwise, fairly benign boating conditions will be place through the middle of next week. /PG/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 66 81 64 85 / 10 70 20 30 BTR 72 87 68 88 / 10 70 30 20 ASD 69 85 67 85 / 10 50 20 10 MSY 72 84 70 86 / 20 60 30 10 GPT 69 79 67 81 / 30 30 10 0 PQL 66 80 66 83 / 20 20 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION/UPDATE...RW MARINE...CAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
936 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 .Forecast Update... Issued at 935 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Current radar mosaic tile shows weak reflectivity cores moving west to east across the area associated with subtle isentropic lifting. Although there have been a couple of light rain/drizzle reports over south-central Kentucky, overall this activity should wind down towards midnight. Otherwise, this warm advection regime will keep the broken to overcast conditions on Saturday with a low chance of light rain/drizzle over the Lake Cumberland region before sunrise. Regarding tomorrow`s forecast, did noticeable adjustments to account for a drier solution, more in line with latest CAM guidance. The big question remains the conditional risk of isolated convection in the southwestern corner of the CWA which seems to stem from upstream boundary collisions in the Mid Mississippi Valley. So far from the HREF model suite, HRRR has been the most aggressive output followed by the HRW ARW as the rest does not show any kind of significant development. Subsequently, low probabilities were introduced for the area of concern during the late afternoon period. && .Short Term...(Tonight through Saturday evening) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Weakening band of light rain showers is making slow progress eastward into our southern KY counties this hour. KY Mesonet is showing a delayed response to any measurable precip, as that moisture runs into drier air to the east..per GOES Sounder precipitable water gradient. Given location of band moving into our southern KY zones, will maintain low-end (~20%) chances for measurable rainfall into the evening hours. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there`s no good trigger or low-level jetting to focus activity overnight as a little more solid moisture builds into the area. Still, we may get some weak isentropic lifting to force a few showers, so have gone with some more low-end PoPs over a bit larger area of southern KY by daybreak Saturday. For the day Saturday, that pwat gradient shifts east, with most of our area getting up to around 1.2"...a little above normal for this time of year. Still with expected low cloud cover, we shouldn`t have too many triggers for shower development. Ensemble guidance, both short-range CAM`s and global model...aren`t too excited about rain chances either. Still, any good breaks in those clouds through the day could allow for some instability to form and promote an isolated thunderstorm or two in the will maintain that mention in this forecast package. && .Long Term...(After midnight Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 As we head into the long-term, upper ridging remains in place overhead while surface high pressure sits off the coast of South Carolina. Surface low pressure near the panhandle of Oklahoma will slowly get pushed northeast, increasing the pressure gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley. The will keep breezy winds from the south over the region. Lows Saturday night will only drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Even with warmer temperatures and a rising dew point, most guidance keeps the region capped and dry, but it is possible that an MCS that develops over Illinois could continue working southeast through southern Indiana and central Kentucky through the evening hours into the overnight. The HRRR has the region remaining less capped and has the MCS working through the region. On Sunday, the day will likely begin with a few breaks in the clouds allowing sunshine to help the the southern breeze lift temperatures to the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points are expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s. The upper ridge and high pressure will keep shear values low, but the warm moist air will help MLCAPE values reach 2,000-3,000 J/kg by the evening hours. Model soundings show an inversion sitting just above the 850mb layer of moisture, but it wouldn`t take much to overcome this cap and for scattered thunderstorms to develop. These storms could produce strong winds, but organized severe weather isn`t expected. The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain until a weak cold front pushes through the region on Tuesday. Behind the cold front, mostly sunny skies and weak CAA will drop high temperatures on Wednesday a couple degrees before WAA returns on Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach into the low to mid 80s. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri May 5 2023 Impacts/Confidence: - Low confidence in MVFR ceilings between 6/12-18Z at HNB/BWG/SDF Discussion...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through this TAF period with a low chance of MVFR ceilings at BWG/HNB/SDF Saturday morning. As noted in the previous forecast, moisture continues building into the area ahead of an approaching warm front. Regional radar imagery shows some decreasing echoes over BWG which could yield some light rain but uneventful whatsoever. Further north, latest SDF ACARS depicts plenty of dry air to evaporate any precipitation attempt. Conditions overnight will be mostly dry accompanied by light winds gradually shifting to the south. Last but not least, southerly flow will slightly strengthen Saturday morning while increasing moisture advection with a low chance of cloud bases lowering to MVFR levels. Extended Outlook...A period of lowered cloud base could start Saturday night into Sunday morning with possibility of MVFR/IFR category. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...ALL Short Term...RJS Long Term...KDW Aviation...ALL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
938 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 As of 9:30PM CDT, southerly winds continue to slacken as cloud tops from showers and thunderstorms to our southwest drift eastward. Muggy outdoor conditions are here to stay with the warm frontal boundary continuing eastward overnight. Most short-term guidance indicates that tonight`s round of showers and thunderstorms over central Texas is expected to weaken as it moves into east Texas with remnants potentially drifting into western zones. With forecast grids accounting for this potential, no additional edits were necessary at this time. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 The morning/afternoon convection has finally distanced itself from the FA and with it some scattering of the cloud coverage has prevailed. The previously mentioned stalled sfc boundary across E/TX this afternoon looks to have finally begun some forward motion just within the last hour or so as I type this. The the boundary will move NE, passing through the FA entirely by the time daybreak comes tomorrow morning. Given the passing boundary so late in the day, and the continued southerly sfc flow overnight, temperatures are expected remain warmer overnight for many. Ranges in the upper 60s, low 70s are to be expected. This is once again another increase from last nights MinT values. It is possible that given the warmer values, decreasing winds and high moisture content that some fog may develop. Not entirely sold at this point, but will pass this along to the evening team who will evaluate further and add any if confidence increases. Similar to last night, we are once again closely monitoring developing convection west of the FA across central TX that will move east over the next several hours, getting close to our E/TX counties after sunset. For now, hourly hi-res from the HRRR and NAM Nest continues to highlight thunderstorm development west of the CWA border, then quickly collapsing as it approaches the FA. This is a different approach from the HRW panel including the NSSL, ARW and FV3 solutions, all of which want to support convection remaining healthy enough to work into the FA, falling apart the closer it gets to the I-49 corridor after midnight, potentially 1/2 AM. This is unfortunately the challenge within this evenings forecast. It is very possible that the 12z HRW solutions were anticipating the frontal boundary to already be well east of where it`s present location is, helping to support an environment that would sustain another MCS/MCV complex this evening. A Marginal risk does exist across the extreme western zones of the E/TX counties, stopping along the I-20 corridor between Tyler and Longview. Primary concern would be damaging wind at this time with whatever may hold together. By Saturday, temperatures will begin to warm up behind the boundary, but given the cloud coverage expected, this could delay initial warming trends to start. Regardless, still expecting highs in the upper 80s, near 90 deg F with select spots possibly reaching 90 deg F. By the late evening, areas closer to the passing front, mainly east zones, may spawn some afternoon style convection that may spread as far west as I-49. Confidence is mixed on this outcome and will need to be closely evaluated ahead of future packages. This would be ahead of dryline thunderstorms forecasted to fire west of DFW, and move east, building into the SHV FA just ahead of midnight, before collapsing the further east the complex moves into Sunday AM. Saturday night lows will fair similar to Friday night, in the upper 60s, low 70s. RK && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 The long-term forecast period will be characterized by a persistent, "dirty" southwest flow aloft featuring the passage of several embedded, weak shortwave troughs. Any synoptic surface features that could serve as sources for ascent or foci for convective development (i.e., surface lows or frontal boundaries) should remain well to the west and north of the forecast area. Combined with a warm, moist, and unstable atmosphere, the result will likely be scattered thunderstorms across a large part of the CWA on a nearly daily basis. The greatest convective coverage should generally be in the afternoon during peak diurnal heating, followed by a gradual diminishing during the evening and nighttime hours. This type of a pattern is incredibly difficult to forecast given weak forcing mechanisms and lack of synoptic features to focus the convection. Placement of the best PoPs each day will generally be driven by the exact track of the weak shortwaves aloft and if there will be any remnant outflow boundaries present from the previous day. Given the time of year and the instability we should have, there will likely be the chance for a couple of severe storms each day. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks. The best chances for more widespread PoPs will be from Wednesday morning through Thursday night. A couple of deeper shortwaves will translate across the forecast area in advance of a much strong trough that will move through the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. The increased large scale forcing should help to increase convective coverage across the region Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon, especially northwest of a line from Lufkin to El Dorado. While the highest rain chances will continue to be during the afternoon hours, there may be enough instability and forcing to maintain at least some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the nighttime and early morning hours Wednesday night/Thursday morning and again Thursday night/Friday morning. Daytime high temperatures should continue to be well into the 80s during the long-term period. Temperatures each day will be governed by convective effects and associated cloud cover. Locations that stay precip-free on any given day will generally be warmer, and some readings could climb into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees F. The more widespread convection Wednesday and Thursday should bring daytime highs back down into the lower to middle 80s. CN && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 For the 06/00Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR after 06/05Z with low-level moisture/cloud cover until at least 06/14Z. Southerly surface flow will maintain this environment with isolated chances of -TSRA/-RA by the end of the period. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 88 71 86 / 10 20 20 50 MLU 69 87 68 87 / 10 30 20 40 DEQ 65 87 68 85 / 10 10 20 40 TXK 68 88 70 87 / 10 10 20 40 ELD 68 87 68 85 / 10 30 20 40 TYR 70 89 70 87 / 20 10 20 40 GGG 69 88 70 86 / 20 10 20 50 LFK 71 90 70 86 / 20 10 20 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...16