Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/05/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
645 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
A marginal risk for severe weather exists generally area wide
this evening. A developing warm front straddled from northwest to
southeast across the highway 83 corridor will be the impetus for
strong to severe storms. Initial development in the higher terrain
surface convergence region of southeast CO, the HRRR and RRFS
develop somewhat discrete convection along he CO/KS line as early
as 21z / 3 pm, before storms fill in the gap to the east along
the boundary, propagating east through the evening. Severe weather
parameters are not the strongest, however with HREF mean CAPE
indicating a narrow corridor of 1000-1500 MLCAPE along and ahead
of the warm front, the severe potential may increase with time
through the early evening as low level shear parameters increase
along the KS/Oklahoma line. While the shear increases, the more
clustered mode of storms might not be as favorable for larger hail
as single supercells lending to medium confidence for widespread
severe reports. Likewise, the HRRR runs were limiting the 10m wind
fields under the max reflectivity cores to under 50 knots. Still
a few areas should receive precipitation in the quarter to half
inch range complementing the recent wet period at least locally.
For the overnight, the convective outflow boundary may serve as a
focus area for developing fog in the 3 am to 8 am time window.
Visibility was already reduced locally to around 4 miles without
the overnight rain as we should see this evening. The High
Resolution ensemble for overnight is showing patchy to areas of
mean visibility below 1 mile, certainly pointing to increased
confidence in locally dense fog. This can be anywhere there is
enhanced surface moisture convergence, but favored from around the
Dighton - Garden City – Ulysses areas.
Any fog in the west Friday morning ought to rapidly improve on
south winds and boundary layer heating. Less confidence exists in
the speed of removal of low stratus from west to east - the Hays
area would be the last to see low stratus completely erased.
Tonight, cloud coverage is reflected in the lower 80s forecast
temperatures vs the mid 80s forecast highs around Liberal and
Elkhart.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
In the extended period, Sunday looks to be the warmest day where
temperatures to 90 degrees or more might be found across the red
hills. The 80s and mild overnight 50s can be expected though the
rest of the 7 day period. ECMWF ensembles point toward the end of
next week for a ramp up for precipitation/convective odds for the
area. THE GFS ensembles are even more robust, and earlier with
timing by mid week, with the output of the 24hr QPF for multi runs
of the ensemble means. If these trends persist, it could be a
good thing for areas of the northern forecast area, namely around
the I-70 corridor which largely missed out on the bulk of the last
round of precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
Radar observations once again reveal scattered thunderstorms
across southwest KS this afternoon. However, similar to
yesterday, any direct terminal impact is uncertain, and therefore
any mention of TS was left out of the TAFs. Otherwise, southerly
winds aoa 15 kts gusting to 25 kts will continue for the next
couple hours before becoming light and variable overnight through
much of Friday. After roughly 08-10Z Friday, low stratus/fog will
spread westward and bring MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs and vis to all
terminals, before clearing and VFR resuming by late morning
through the end of the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
Confidence may be waning a bit for the risk for critical fire
weather over the weekend. Critical fire weather criteria may be
met but possibly across a more limited area as the wind fields
offered up by the models don’t look as strong at this time. At
this time, the SPC fire weather outlooks are focusing risk mainly
to our southwest in the New Mexico area. However, the southwest
half of the area should expect near critical conditions in the
warm, more gusty afternoon periods this weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 83 50 87 / 40 0 10 0
GCK 51 82 48 83 / 40 0 10 0
EHA 50 87 47 85 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 51 87 48 86 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 55 82 53 86 / 60 10 20 10
P28 58 82 54 90 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Springer
FIRE WEATHER...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
521 PM MDT Thu May 4 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu May 4 2023
At the start of the short term period, the latest upper air RAP
analysis displays the CWA having a west-southwesterly flow aloft
being underneath a ridge with a upper air low off to the west over
central CA on Thursday afternoon. Models project this upper air
pattern continuing into the night with the western low moving
slightly eastward to the CA/NV border and a shortwave disturbance
moving through the flow over the CWA during the evening hours. At
the surface, the CWA expects chances for showers and thunderstorms
starting in the southwest and spreading northeast across the CWA
as a surface low is expected to move north from southeastern CO
into NE by the overnight hours. Convective parameters from the
latest model runs continue to show some severe potential with
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE though the bulk shear values do not appear
to be too support being on the low side. DCAPE values though
range between 1000-1500 J/kg, so it looks like the primary hazard
may be from strong wind gusts with isolated severe storms. Large
hail might be more of a secondary threat, but this threat looks to
stay east of the CO border where the higher MUCAPE is. Current QPF
values look to be around a few tenths at most with the highest
values are Gove County. Models show precipitation chances tapering
off in the northeast after midnight. Low temperatures tonight
expect to be in the lower 40s to the middle 50s.
On Friday, forecast guidance shows the western low making its way
more into NV throughout the day while the CWA`s upper air flow takes
a southwesterly direction as the aforementioned upper air ridge
progresses slightly eastward. Another shortwave disturbance is seen
within the flow over the CWA during the evening hours. At the
surface, models project a surface low in central CO moving east
across the CWA going into the night. With this setup, chances for
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening hours for areas along and north of I-70. Upon looking at
model forecast convective parameters, bulk shear looks to be better
compared to the previous day being around 40 kts with around 1000-
2000 J/kg of MLCAPE east of the CO border with higher amounts in the
eastern portion of the CWA. However, LCL heights are quite high at
this time. As the SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather in the
Day 2 Outlook, will continue to watch this in future model runs for
the severe potential. Possible hazards should a storm become severe
look to be large hail and damaging winds at this time. There also
looks to be some near-critical to locally critical fire weather
concerns for around the Flagler, CO area. Not meeting the wind
gust criteria currently limits the need for a Red Flag Warning at
this time, but will continue to monitor this as well if
conditions expect to change. Daytime highs on Friday range between
the upper 70s and middle 80s while overnight lows expect to be in
the lower 40s to lower 50s.
For Saturday, models forecast the CWA being between a upper air
trough to the west and an upper air ridge to the east keeping the
southwesterly flow over the CWA throughout the day. Another
evening shortwave disturbance is shown to travel through the flow
of CWA as well. Forecast guidance shows another surface low moving
from southeastern CO across the CWA going into the night once
again allowing for some afternoon and evening chances for showers
and thunderstorms for areas north of I-70. However, these chances
do not look as good compared to the previous days since models are
showing lower amounts of moisture the 850mb level. Will continue
to monitor this going forward, but current QPF values with these
precipitation chances look to amount to next to nothing. The main
story currently for Saturday though is that models are showing
near critical to critical fire weather conditions possible during
the afternoon and evening hours for areas south of I- 70 with
warmer temperatures in the forecast. As southwesterly winds
gusting up to 35 mph and minimum relative humidity values down to
12 percent are in the forecast for Kit Carson and Cheyenne
counties in CO, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Saturday`s
daytime highs are forecasted to be in the middle 70s to middle 80s
range followed by overnight lows between the lower and upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu May 4 2023
Southwest flow will continue through Wednesday ahead of a slow
moving cut off low meandering over the Desert Southwest. It will
finally make a move towards the end of the forecast period, but
models are in poor agreement on where it will end up, having
large impacts on the precipitation forecast. Ahead of the low,
there will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms due to
weak waves embedded in the flow. Instability will be lacking
early in the period, but it does get better with time due to
southeasterly low level winds and moisture advection Tuesday and
Wednesday. Deep layer shear will be adequate to support organized
convection most every day. The best combination of instability and
shear appears to occur from Tuesday and beyond. However, ultimate
track of the upper low will come into play by that time, so there
remains a great deal of uncertainty.
Temperatures remain above normal through the entire long term
period. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and
50s. Fire weather concerns continue Sunday and Monday with low
afternoon humidity minimums, but some modest moistening Tuesday
through Thursday may mitigate those concerns. Winds on Sunday and
Monday currently appear too light to support critical conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Thu May 4 2023
For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions are expected for the forecast
period. Through about 03z Friday, VCTS/TSRA is possible. Storms
are high ceiling based, so only MVFR for 5sm in light rain
expected. 12z-14z 6sm BR possible. Winds, southeast 10-20kts
initially with some VRB30-45kts if a storm occurs. By 03z Friday,
a shift to southwest around 10kts the northwest by 06z before
going light/variable by 12z then back to southeast by 14z.
For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions are expected. VCTS/TSRA possible
from 02z-06z with some light shower potential. MVFR fog from
11z-14z down to 5sm is expected. Winds, southeast 10-15kts. Some
VRB25-40kts in any storms from 02z-04z. Light/variable from
06z-14z then southeast 5-10kts from 14z onward.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 301PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
Continued delayment in the shortwave trough has led to a delay in
moisture and storm chances. The best chances for severe weather this
evening will be well south of our region down near the Red River
Valley. Precipitation chances will also be delayed as a result with
the best chances in the early evening located over our western
areas. The best timing for precipitation as a whole may not be until
the 06z through 12z time period. The RAP, HRRR, and NAM show strong
warm air advection over south-central Kansas with the RAP and NAM
showing a weak 700mb frontogenesis signal during this time frame over
south-central Kansas as well. The best chances for storms will be
right on the nose of the warm air advection. The shortwave energy
will move over our region right around this time as well. Current
thinking is that the best chance for rain will be along and east of
I-135 and south of US Highway 50. Can`t rule out a few marginally
severe storms with the main threat being hail up to quarter sized
and 60 mph winds.
With the main upper feature remaining to our west, we should
continue to see the ridge build in over the Plains Friday and
Saturday. We should see highs approach 90 area wide on Saturday.
There is a low chance for precipitation across I-70 on Saturday
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
Early through the long range period there will be a few chances for
glancing blows as multiple weak shortwaves will move around the
larger trough axis over the western U.S. Monday through Tuesday
appear to be conditional severe risk and whether or not there`s
enough forcing to allow for storm development. If one of the
shortwaves can be more defined, can`t rule out some significant
severe potential.
In the Wednesday through Friday time period ensemble guidance is in
general agreement on a deep trough ejecting into the eastern Rocky
Mountains. This would bring heightened chances for rain and storms to
our region. Uncertainty still exists in the evolution of this trough
and what other mesoscale features may be involved, so can`t get too
far into the specifics on whether this will be an active period of
severe weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023
MVFR cigs were impacting much of south central KS while some IFR
has recently developed across southeast KS impacting KCNU. Low
cigs will linger through the night with widespread IFR and perhaps
some LIFR developing at times into the morning hours on Fri
before we mix out by late morning/early afternoon. There is some
concern that we could see some reduced visibilities develop within
a moist low level upslope regime across central KS but confidence
in widespread low visibilities remain low at this time. Low level
southeasterly winds will prevail through the period and we could
still see some scattered thunderstorms impact southern Kansas
tonight although uncertainty in coverage remains fairly high at
this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 58 79 59 88 / 40 0 0 0
Hutchinson 57 80 57 88 / 40 10 0 0
Newton 58 79 59 88 / 40 10 0 0
ElDorado 57 78 60 87 / 50 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 58 81 60 88 / 50 0 0 0
Russell 57 82 55 88 / 40 10 10 10
Great Bend 57 80 54 87 / 40 10 10 10
Salina 58 82 58 90 / 30 10 10 10
McPherson 57 80 58 88 / 40 10 10 0
Coffeyville 57 81 61 89 / 70 20 0 0
Chanute 58 79 61 89 / 60 20 0 10
Iola 56 78 60 89 / 60 20 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 57 80 62 89 / 60 20 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRW
LONG TERM...CRW
AVIATION...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
728 PM EDT Thu May 4 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2023
Radar returns from KMQT show scattered showers have given way to
a line of showers in Alger and Delta counties moving east. 500mb
analysis shows a shortwave pivoting southeast from northwest
Ontario, providing some lift for the showers. A surface low is
trying to close off upstream along the WI/MN line, though at this
point it is fairly weak at only 1009mb. Surface ridging to the
east is keeping clearer skies to the east while the west is seeing
clearing skies due to a low to midlevel dry slot as shown on GOES
16 WV imagery. The NSSL WRF and NAM Nest show some scattered,
short- lived convection in the west this afternoon, though the
remaining CAMs show a much clearer solution. SPC RAP mesoanalysis
does show a very small pocket of up to 500 J/kg of SBCAPE along
the MI/WI line at Gogebic County for 22Z-00Z, though BUFKIT
soundings show that while lapse rates above 800mb are steep,
significant dry air is expected above 650mb. Left thunder out of
the forecast, though there is a cu field percolating SW of Gogebic
County so a stray eye may need to be kept on that. CAM guidance
then shows after sunset a return to a scattered shower regime,
though fairly low QPF will translate to low-impact weather for the
remainder of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2023
Models and ensembles show the omega blocking pattern across North
America persisting at least into the first half of next week with
mean troughing over or just off the coastlines and a strong positive
500 mb height anomaly of 360+ m developing over or near Hudson Bay
later this week. This high-latitude height anomaly will force
periods of troughing over or near the Upper Great Lakes resulting in
showery periods over Upper Michigan into early next week.
Spotty, generally hit and miss shower activity will continue into
early Friday. Then, a slightly stronger shortwave from the mid-level
low to the nw could move across the area later in the day Friday.
Strengthening waa/isentropic ascent in response to this shortwave
will probably lead to a gradual expansion in coverage of showers
across the area later Friday afternoon, continuing into Friday
night. Model consensus hints that the better shower activity will be
over south central and east portions of the UP where the better
isentropic ascent looks to be focused.
Model uncertainty increases substantially heading into the weekend
regarding the strength/persistence of the ridge building into the
area along with the timing/track of any potential shortwaves riding
through the ridge. Most models now suggest a drying period Sat
afternoon/evening after lingering morning showers lift and shortwave
ridging builds into the area. That said, some moisture still present
in soundings and the midlevel low still spinning off to our
northwest, at least some chance PoPs should linger mainly across
the western UP. Beginning late Sat night into the early part of next
week, guidance continues to hint at a series of weak shortwaves
rippling through - though there remains poor agreement on timing
and strength. As a result, periods of showers and even isolated
thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out of the forecast during
this time. Given the uncertainty, will not deviate from the model
blend pops at this time. Moving into the middle of next week,
ensemble and deterministic guidance are generally in agreement on
robust ridging over the area, and drier weather returning by
Wednesday. The operational Euro remains the exception, with its
quasi-zonal parade of Pacific-based shortwaves through the region -
but will continue to lean towards the drier NBM solution.
With the wet snowpack still evident on satellite over the northern
and central forecast area, snowmelt will continue to pose a flooding
risk especially as temperatures rise into next week. This may be
exacerbated by the round of showers expected Friday/Friday night,
and any spurious activity until the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 727 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2023
VFR conditions and some shower activity is being observed across the
region at the moment. Rain shower activity is light and likely isn`t
reaching the surface save for a few sprinkles in most locations.
Surface trough extending into the region will support mostly higher
clouds and VFR conditions tonight, but expecting MVFR ceilings by
morning at all terminals as a shortwave swings through Upper
Michigan. Model guidance suggests low MVFR or IFR ceilings will be
likely by afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 304 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2023
Mean sfc high pressure ridge should hold over Lake Superior
resulting in winds generally less than 20 knots into early next
week. The only exception to this will be over the western quarter of
the lake where a tighter pressure gradient sets up and allows
channeling of ne winds with gusts occasionally reaching 25-30kt
today through Saturday. Gusts to 20 to 25 knots may become more
common across the rest of the lake Saturday and Saturday night as
well as a boundary moves northward towards the area.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for MIZ001>006-009>011-084.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...LC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
228 PM PDT Thu May 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and unsettled weather continues through the weekend with
occasional shower and thunderstorm chances. The higher elevations
will see late-season snow showers with some minor accumulations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The cool upper low that has been meandering along the coast for
several days is moving inland into central California. This system
has brought cool daytime temperatures in the upper 50s and lows
60. Some instability aloft with this low will bring the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Skies
have remained overcast through the day, which has limited
convective development so far. The HRRR is showing the best
potential for cells developing from the northern San Joaquin
Valley into the southern Sacramento Valley and into the mountains.
Model soundings don`t show a lot of shear into this evening, so
thunderstorms are not expected to be strong. Rainfall amounts
along this band so far have been fairly light, generally around a
tenth of an inch, though a few locations in the mountains have
reached a third to a half inch. Surface observations indicate the
snow level is around 6,500 feet for the northern Sierra, but
Caltrans traffic web cameras continue to indicate wet roadway
surfaces so far. This may be due to the high sun angle, bringing
some warming to the roads. Snow levels should gradually drop
overnight to 5,000-6,000 feet, bringing a better potential for
high altitude for snow accumulation, though this should be
relatively light at a few inches.
The next batch of energy drops south later Friday and Saturday
bringing renewed shower chances to much of the area by Friday
night and early Saturday, and some more light accumulating snow
will be possible across the higher elevations of the northern
Sierra. Showers have trended more widespread across the Valley,
especially Saturday morning. There is also enough instability to
see some afternoon and evening showers, especially east of I-5.
Sunday may end up dry for most of the area, but another short
wave is forecast to bring more showers to the northern mountains
and northern Sacramento Valley beginning Sunday night.
Temperatures will remain around 10-15 degrees below average.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...
Upper low moves through Monday keeping unsettled cool weather.
Models differ with strength of next system Tuesday. NBM keeps a
threat of afternoon showers/snow showers over the northern and
eastern mountains of interior NorCal through the extended forecast
period. By midweek, forecast becomes more uncertain as model
differences increase. Overall ensembles suggest a warming trend,
reaching close to normal levels by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Local MVFR/IFR possible in -shra and mtn -shsn next 24 hrs. Snow
lvls generally above 6000 ft. Sfc wind mainly at or below 12 kts.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$