Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/03/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1033 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
Dry, cool high pressure is sitting across central Kansas Today
with only high cirrus spilling across the southwestern counties.
Farther south and west, a line of moisture convergence from
northeast NM into northwest Texas is slowly making its way
northward and will play a part in southwest KS sensible weather
into the next couple of days. In the meantime, Tonight should
be another cool night in the 40s across most of the area,
although increasing low level moisture profiles near Elkhart
should translate into a bit more mild overnight lows around 50F.
The returning pattern of downslope will push a warm front and
dryline into our southwest early Wednesday, resulting in still
warmer temps in the 70s in the east, but likely much warmer low
80s near and behind the dryline - in effect maybe Lakin to Hugoton
and westward. As the warm front lifts through the area, an influx
of higher low level dew points will increase theta-e/moisture
convergence at the surface Wednesday afternoon, as a number of
CAMs pop off widely scattered convection in the max CAPE zone
roughly straddling the highway 25 corridor, or generally west of
Scott City, Garden City and Liberal. Based on trajectories of the
HRRR and experimental RRFS, said convection may linger through
mid evening, crossing the southern state line most likely west of
the highway 283 corridor. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind
could develop in this time frame with a spring supercell.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
A low pressure is forecast to develop by Thursday, focusing the
low level moisture across the more eastern counties/central Kansas
region. Roughly the eastern half of the area will again be under
at least a marginal risk for severe weather and with likely more
areal coverage of storms and severe weather risk for 2 inch hail
and damaging wind.
The ECMWF ensembles show a steady trend for continued warming from
mid week into the weekend, the warmest day likely coming Sunday
afternoon, and Monday probably a mirror. This period will get into
some of the more mild overnights we’ve seen this season so far
with potential for diurnal minimums in the low 60s any of the
overnights, with a typical bias to cooler temps farther west in
the 50s. The pattern going forward into the next week could be a
bit more active for parts of Kansas as the CPC 6-10 day
precipitation outlook is in the “leaning above” category of
33-40% chance for above normal precipitation, and even high in
roughly our eastern third of counties. The 3 to 4 week outlook
also remains in the “leaning above “ category for precipitation
from the central Rockies across Kansas and into the Southern
Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
VFR will continue through this TAF period, with midlevel cloud
decks expected to prevail through Wednesday. Light SE winds will
prevail through 15z Wed. After 15z Wed, south winds will increase
at all airports, gusting near 25 kts. A weak shortwave will enter
SW KS Wednesday afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms most likely
from near GCK to near LBL 00-03z Thu as shown by 00z NAM/FV3. Just
enough signal to mention VCTS/CB at GCK/LBL/DDC starting at 21z
Wed. Kept the HYS TAF dry with this TAF issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
No fire weather concerns this afternoon, with the lighter wind
field and then again Wednesday as the winds do pick up, but so
does the near surface dew points and thus the relative humidity.
Despite recent rains, plenty of dry fuels still exits. Critical
fire weather risk is likely to return by the weekend as the hotter
temperature under dry southwesterly downslope wind drives
relative humidity back below 20 percent area-wide.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 47 74 52 80 / 20 30 30 40
GCK 47 76 52 80 / 20 20 20 30
EHA 51 81 55 81 / 30 30 10 20
LBL 49 79 54 82 / 30 30 20 20
HYS 41 76 50 79 / 10 20 60 50
P28 46 71 52 79 / 10 20 30 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
300 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023
Any lingering shower or thunderstorm around Hudspeth county and
the Sacramento mountains will diminish overnight. Another round
of isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible east
of the Rio Grande tomorrow afternoon. Then into Wednesday night,
light showers will be possible across the Borderland. The work
week will end with breezy conditions and temperatures remaining in
the 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023
Some lingering showers or an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible this evening across Hudspeth county. This activity will
diminish through the night resulting in generally mild low
temperatures. We`ll deal with the dry line and the fringes of
moisture and instability once again on Wednesday. The best threat
will focus east of the Rio Grande once again, (it`s worth noting
the cams are just east of the Rio for tomorrow, something to
monitor in the coming forecast runs). Not expecting any major
impacts but some gusty outflow winds and modest rain will be
possible under the strongest storms.
Wednesday night into Thursday will see a substantial increase in
moisture, especially in the mid and upper levels, which may
moisten enough to produce a some light showers. It`s worth noting
a jet streak at 500 will move north during this time, putting
portions of the area within a region of ascent. Interestingly the
HRRR says the Gila will see some modest precipitation. Again, this
will not be all that impactful either way but the chance will
exist for some scattered rain showers Wed night.
Drier air pushes in Thursday and Friday with breezy conditions,
winds 15 to 25 mph, and temperatures in the 80s. We generally
remain breezy with temps in the 80s this weekend and into early
next week as well as persistent troughiness remains to our
northwest and north (which is/will be the case through this
entire forecast cycle).
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Tue May 2 2023
ISO TSRA Sacs and Hudspeth county this afternoon and evening,
otherwise much of the region remains dry with breezy to mildly
breezy southwest winds (10G20KTs). Winds decrease tonight with any
-SHRA or TSRA diminishing as well. Generally VFR conditions
expected through the period unless right under a strong storm out
east.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023
General troughiness will remain to the northwest of the Borderland
through the next several days. Any lingering showers or
thunderstorms this evening will diminish overnight, then another
round is expected east of the Rio Grande Wednesday afternoon.
There could be a few dry thunderstorms with this activity. Some
scattered showers will be possible across the region Wednesday
night as well as moisture increases in the mid and upper levels.
Then Thursday into this weekend will feature breezy conditions
each afternoon with generally critical min humidity and elevated
fire conditions. Consequently, ventilation will be Excellent.
Thursday will be the day to watch in the near term as winds will
be 15 to 20 mph, right near critical with critical min humidity
outside of the highest terrain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 60 89 63 87 / 10 10 20 10
Sierra Blanca 52 83 58 81 / 40 20 40 10
Las Cruces 54 89 58 86 / 0 10 20 10
Alamogordo 52 86 55 82 / 10 20 20 10
Cloudcroft 41 63 40 56 / 10 30 30 10
Truth or Consequences 52 84 55 80 / 0 0 20 10
Silver City 48 76 47 72 / 0 10 20 0
Deming 49 85 53 83 / 0 10 30 10
Lordsburg 50 82 50 81 / 0 10 10 0
West El Paso Metro 59 85 62 83 / 0 10 20 10
Dell City 50 86 57 83 / 30 30 40 10
Fort Hancock 53 89 59 88 / 20 20 30 10
Loma Linda 53 80 55 78 / 10 20 30 10
Fabens 54 89 61 87 / 10 10 20 10
Santa Teresa 53 84 58 83 / 0 10 20 10
White Sands HQ 59 86 60 82 / 0 10 20 10
Jornada Range 51 84 55 81 / 0 10 20 10
Hatch 52 85 56 82 / 0 10 20 10
Columbus 54 85 56 82 / 0 10 20 10
Orogrande 52 86 58 82 / 0 20 20 10
Mayhill 43 74 45 69 / 20 40 30 10
Mescalero 43 74 44 68 / 10 30 30 10
Timberon 42 72 42 68 / 10 30 30 10
Winston 44 74 45 70 / 0 0 20 10
Hillsboro 49 81 50 77 / 0 10 20 10
Spaceport 49 83 54 80 / 0 10 20 10
Lake Roberts 44 76 43 72 / 0 10 20 0
Hurley 46 81 46 78 / 0 10 20 0
Cliff 39 84 41 80 / 0 10 10 0
Mule Creek 46 78 46 73 / 0 0 10 0
Faywood 48 79 49 76 / 0 10 20 10
Animas 49 81 50 81 / 0 10 10 0
Hachita 49 83 50 80 / 0 10 10 0
Antelope Wells 48 80 49 79 / 0 10 10 0
Cloverdale 49 74 48 73 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...35-Delizio
LONG TERM....35-Delizio
AVIATION...35-Delizio
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
530 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023
At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis
displays the CWA underneath an upper air ridge between an upper air
low over central CA and another low situated over southeastern ON
during the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Current surface observations
and satellite imagery show mostly clear skies with a few high clouds
over western Cheyenne county in CO. Models forecast this omega block
pattern continuing throughout the rest of the day with a
shortwave disturbance seen in the flow over the southern part of
the CWA during the evening hours. At the surface, high pressure in
the Northern Plains looks to keep the CWA with dry conditions
through the remainder of the day. For tonight, southern portions
of the CWA may see a slight chance for a light rain shower after
midnight with the rest of the CWA continuing to stay dry.
Overnight lows tonight for the CWA expect to be in the upper 30s
to middle 40s.
On Wednesday, forecast guidance still shows the CWA underneath
the ridge in the omega block pattern with the western low staying
over central CA and the eastern low moving across the Mid-
Atlantic region and going just off the Atlantic coast by the
overnight hours. Another shortwave disturbance is seen passing
through the flow over the CWA during the evening hours. At the
surface, models show some chances for showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours associated with upper air
disturbance. Forecast model sounding are showing an inverted-V
setup during the 21Z-03Z hours supporting the SPC`s marginal risk
and isolated severe thunderstorm chances in areas generally south
of U.S. Hwy-36 and west of U.S. Hwy-83. Potential hazards look to
be strong winds and large hail should these storms occur with CAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg and 30-40 kt bulk shear seen at this time.
While models show some decent moisture coming into the area at the
850mb level from the south, not much QPF is expected with these
precipitation chances ranging from a few hundredths to around a
tenth. Will be monitoring these precipitation and storm chances
going forward. During the overnight, some model soundings are
also showing the potential for some low clouds and fog within CWA
after midnight, but not enough confidence to put it into the
forecast just yet. Daytime highs for Wednesday look to be in the
upper 70s while overnight lows range between the middle 40s and
lower 50s.
For Thursday, models continue to show the CWA underneath the upper
level ridge though they have the ridge progressing slightly eastward
by the evening hours as the western upper air low moves east as well
over the CA/NV border. These forecast models also project a
shortwave disturbance over the CWA during the evening within a
mostly southwesterly upper flow that shifted to that direction
during the afternoon. At the surface, there looks to be pretty
decent chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday (compared to Wednesday) throughout the entire CWA during
the afternoon and going into the overnight hours. Models forecast
a surface low making its way from central CO in the afternoon
going southeast into southwestern KS overnight allowing for these
precipitation chances across the CWA. Models are also showing
ample amounts of moisture in the 850mb level once again as well
as PWAT values around 1 inch. With this, QPF values at this time
are a bit higher than Wednesday`s ranging between a few hundredths
to just under a half inch in far northern portions of the CWA.
Upon looking at convective potential, forecast models do not show
the best bulk shear values, but do show around a 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. Will continue to monitor this in case severe weather
potential increases, but thunderstorms that occur look to stay
sub-severe on Thursday with the latest model convective
parameters. Daytime highs for Thursday range between the middle
70s and the lower 80s followed by overnight lows in the lower 40s
to lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023
Upper low in western CONUS will finally start to move and reach
the central Rockies over the weekend. Weak impulses will continue
to eject over the plains ahead of the trough axis, providing daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Remnants of the upper low
will continue to impact the area early next week. GFS wants to cut
off a new upper low near the forecast area on Tuesday, while the
ECMWF keeps it as an open wave. So, showers and storms will
continue to be possible. As for severe chances, instability
will be lacking on Friday. However, on Saturday there may be an
east-west oriented front in the area which would help focus
convective initiation. 0-6km shear values are around 40 kts with
instability north of the boundary up to 1500 j/kg. So, Saturday
appears to be the best day for severe storms, mainly near and
north of that boundary. On Sunday a dry line will set up in
eastern areas, with weak to moderate instability east of the dry
line and favorable deep layer shear, suggesting severe storms
will be possible east of wherever that dry line ends up. By
Monday and Tuesday, surface pattern becomes chaotic in the models
and it is difficult to say where any remnant surface boundaries
may reside. Deep layer shear does remain near 40 kts on Monday
then decreases on Tuesday. So cannot rule out severe storms
either day, though confidence is rather low by that part of the
forecast period.
Temperatures will remain above normal the entire long term
period. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and
50s. Greenup will continue westward and the entire area may become
susceptible to frost/freezes by next week. Finally, elevated fire
weather conditions will be a concern, especially early in the
period, with humidity dropping below 20 percent each afternoon.
However, the only day that currently has wind speeds high enough
to potentially reach critical conditions is Sunday, with
southwesterly winds forecast to gust up to 35 mph south of
Interstate 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023
VFR conditions are expected to continue for KGLD and KMCK. Winds will
become more southerly after 10Z and begin to intensify with speeds
near 20 kts. Some mid-level clouds are expected to start moving into
the KGLD area around 10Z along with a slight chance of showers.
Tomorrow afternoon, primarily after 18Z isolated scattered
thunderstorms are possible, mainly near the KGLD terminal.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN/CA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1026 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving showers and a few thunderstorms with embedded
downpours will continue through the middle to end of this work
week with gradually waning intensity and coverage. Area rivers
have crested and are presently falling, although additional
rainfall may exacerbate ongoing flooding issues. Rain chances
diminish toward late with drier and warmer conditions this
weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM Update...Have upped pops slightly across the region as
the latest HRRR continues to move the rainfall out of the area
too quickly. Latest radar imagery continues to show
precipitation rotating back into the northern mountains as of
0222Z. This may aggravate some of the rivers and streams across
the region which continue to be swollen with recent heavy
runoff. Have extended the flood watch over north-central New
Hampshire as well as streams will be rising over the next
several hours.
Otherwise, minor adjustments to temperatures, dew points and
winds with this latest near term update.
Update...Have updated the forecast based on latest model trends
and observations. Latest radar imagery continues to indicate
much of the precipitation will move slowly to the north tonight.
Mainly light rain is falling at this time and some of the higher
echo returns may be due to the radar beam reaching the melting
level.
Will continue with showers gradually receding to northern areas
late this evening and during the overnight hours. Patchy fog
will continue also with perhaps a rumble of thunder. Overnight
lows will mainly drop into the lower 40s in most areas.
Prev Disc...A shortwave trough out ahead of the parent upper
low is in the process of crossing through the area. As a result
the radar has really lit up over the last couple of hours with
the strong lift and sufficient moisture in place. We have seen a
few storms so far and have had several reports of small hail
within the more robust convection, which isn`t surprising giving
the freezing level is just under 5000 ft AGL. This will
continue to be the case into this evening, with the highest
coverage of showers and a few storms across NH and into far
western ME with small hail and gusty winds still possible. The
HRRR has also been consistent in bringing a band of heavier
showers and perhaps a storm or two toward the Maine Coast and
Capitol region this evening. Given the environment, can`t rule
out some small hail and/or gusty winds across this area too.
Lastly, some of these heavier showers and storms have been very
efficient rainmakers with Concord in particular receiving over
a half inch of rain in less than 30 minutes. This could produce
some flooding issues in areas where convection lingers or
receive multiple rounds. Latest guidance continues to suggest
southern New Hampshire(maybe far SW Maine) extending north
toward the White Mountains. So...no changes have been made to
the inherited Flood Watch that runs through midnight tonight.
Hi-res guidance is in pretty decent agreement in showing
diminishing shower and storm coverage from south to north from
this evening into the early overnight hours, especially across
southern areas while the better chances will generally from the
foothills northward as the responsible wave continues to lift
north. Given the very saturated conditions from the recent
rainfall, expect some fog development as well overnight and
toward morning where the winds drop off enough.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shower activity is expected to pick back up during the morning
and afternoon hours on Wednesday as more energy aloft stemming
from the parent upper low moves across the area. While not quite
as high as coverage today, the highest shower coverage is
expected to be inland from the coast and similar to today,
moreso as we get closer to the foothills and mountains. We`ll
also have some instability to work with, so we may again see
some downpours in addition to a few storms that could contain
small hail and/or gusty winds.
Showers continue into portions of the nighttime hours but
should start to wane in coverage as the upper low finally pushes
to our south and east. Fog will again be possible as we keep
sufficient low-level moisture, but I think the winds will stay
up enough to keep it from being too much of an issue.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We`re due for a pattern change over New England later this
week, finally bringing in a drier airmass and fair weather.
Pressure rises from the west and low pressure persisting over
eastern Canada will promote winds out of the northwest, give or
take... with better mixing and a warmer air mass closer to
seasonal norms building in, allowing for a steady warming
trend. Unsettled weather looks to return by around the middle of
next week, but that`s a bit far in range for this forecast and
model spread on the overall pattern is substantial. For now
we`ll focus on the warmer and drier stretch coming our way.
Starting Thursday...inverted troughing off maritime low
pressure keeps cyclonic flow over the region through the end of
the week with shortwaves moving through and providing waves of
lift. Thursday is forecast to be a touch cooler than Wednesday
with cool northeasterly flow from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence
keeping temperatures mainly in the 40s to low-50s under mostly
cloudy or overcast skies. Scattered to widespread rain showers
are also expected, with these diminishing in coverage Friday as
drier air begins to work in from the north. Friday starts the
warming trend as well with better mixing and a more continental
airmass advecting in with highs in the 50s to low- 60s, coolest
in the mountains where more low-level clouds persist and along
the coast where a sea breeze will likely form.
This weekend is expected to be quite nice, albeit muddy in a
lot of areas as we continue to dry out surface moisture from the
recent rainy pattern. Cyclonic flow will still be present aloft
on Saturday, and with some mid-level humidity a smattering of
cumulus clouds can be expected through the daytime... can`t rule
out a light rain shower but I don`t have the confidence in
location to include PoP in the forecast for that at this time.
Otherwise temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s to near
70. Sunday continues the warming trend with highs in the 60s to
low-70s, and again on Monday with highs mostly in the 70s on
continued northwest flow... although a back-door cold front may
disrupt this. The wild card with each of these three days will
be the sea breeze reversing the diurnal temperature trend along
the coast, and moderating temperatures over the immediate
interior. At this point the ensemble consensus pegs offshore
flow at around 10-20 mph, which is right on the cusp of
overcoming the sea breeze... so will stick close to consensus
for temperatures along the coast while leaning on warmer values
over the interior south of the mountains.
The pattern grows more uncertain starting next week, especially
beyond Monday with questions mainly surrounding the slow
progression of the overall wave pattern. Generally speaking,
precipitation chances start to re-enter the picture Monday
night, continuing through midweek with similarly mild
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...High coverage of showers and a few storms continue
into this evening with lower potential for showers overnight
tonight. IFR visibilities are expected within showers, and
ceilings will range anywhere from MVFR to IFR through this
evening. Some sites will probably improve to VFR tonight, but
will then have to watch for fog potential given the recent
rainfall and light winds tonight. Another cloudy, showery day is
expected on Wednesday, especially inland from the coast, and
restrictions are again expected to range from IFR to MVFR. IFR
ceilings and patchy fog will remain possible for all sites
Wednesday night.
Long Term...Restrictions in low CIGs and perhaps VSBY will
persist at least over eastern terminals Thursday with SHRA
present in most places in northeasterly flow. Conditions trend
back to VFR Friday with flow turning more northerly, and prevail
at VFR through the weekend under northwesterly flow. Daily sea
breezes will disrupt these broad flow regimes along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Easterly flow continues across the waters tonight
and Wednesday, containing occasional gusts to around 25 kt with
seas remaining above SCA levels. SCA conditions continue
Wednesday night for the outer waters as winds become more
northeasterly with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kt kt.
Long Term...Northeasterly flow on Thursday veers northerly by
Friday with borderline SCA conditions over the outer waters
gradually diminishing. Winds and seas are likely to remain
below small craft thresholds through the weekend with a general
northwesterly gradient flow yielding to daily sea breeze
circulations along the coast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Have issued a flood warning for the Lamprey River around the
time of this latest update. Also continuing to closely monitor
the Saco River at Conway which remains on the rise again.
Several river flood warnings remain in effect. If you`re out,
watch for flooded roads and heed closed road signs/barriers.
Heavy downpours and a few storms could produce up to inch in
some areas, especially on the eastern slopes of the White
Mountains. This could locally exacerbate ongoing flooding.
Unstable conditions persist Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Coverage is expected to be showery, with measurable
precipitation around a quarter to maybe a half inch for NH and
the foothills of Maine. Higher terrain locations again may see
locally higher amounts. This would keep low stream crossings
active with runoff through mid to late week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NHZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Casey
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
802 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving low pressure will bring cool, damp weather tonight.
High pressure will provide mainly dry conditions and a slow
warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. Next chance of
precipitation will be accompanying a low pressure area moving to
the south of the region Friday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
An area of rain has developed over the northern 1/3 of the
forecast area this evening along a weak low level boundary with
colder air interacting with significant low level moisture.
This boundary will move south early in the evening and likely be
exiting far southeastern CWA around midnight. Have increased
precip chances in the near term and tried to blend the short
range models capturing this, weighted closer to the NAM Nest.
Under cloudy skies, temperatures will only drop a few degrees
into the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday and Wednesday night, the upper low will weaken and
slowly wobble toward the east. This allows a decreasing trend
in clouds across the Tri-State Region along with drier
conditions across most of the rest of the Ohio Valley. Can`t
rule out a few sprinkles per the HRRR however... particularly
Wednesday morning.
Highs will reach into middle and upper 50s during the day, with
lows dipping into the middle to upper 30s at night. Have some
patchy fog across east-central IN into west-central OH due to
decreasing clouds and relaxing gradient winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As the persistent upper level low continues to shift off of the
northeast coast, weak mid level ridging will build into the mid
Ohio Valley through the day on Thursday. This will be
accompanied by a weak surface ridge axis that will push east
across our area Thursday into Thursday night. This will provide
for dry conditions and a gradual moderation in temperatures,
with highs on Thursday ranging from the low 60s northeast to the
upper 60s in the southwest.
A weak mid level short wave will slide southeast from the mid
Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley Friday into
Friday night. As it does, a weak surface low/wave will ride
southeast along a boundary situated off to our southwest. The
12Z GFS ensemble mean has continued to trend slightly farther
north with the pcpn associated with this. As a result, will
allow for some higher chance pops across our far southwest for
Friday into Friday night, tapering back to slight chance pops
farther to the northeast across central portions of our area.
Mid level ridging will then slowly build east across the
central US this weekend into early next week. However, there are
some model discrepancies in the timing of this, with the ECMWF
ensemble mean somewhat faster and stronger than the GFS ensemble
mean. Overall this will result in a moderating trend in temperatures
through the end of the long term period with highs returning to
above normal early next week. With increasing warmth and
moisture, will also allow for some lower end pops toward the
end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low level boundary is becoming active with a light rain coming
from a VFR deck this early evening. The cold air overturning the
abundant moisture in the lower levels is progged to make a
relatively quick jog to the south and east. As the area of rain
tracks south, slightly less thermal interaction will be found to
the west and the rain footprint will erode from west to east.
Cigs are currently VFR in most locations and MOS guidance does
not seem to be capturing the base of the cloud decks well,
significantly overforecasting the lower cigs. Have adjusted cigs
based on upstream obs but am hesitant to raise cigs by much in
this CAA in a moist lower atmosphere. Gusts have tapered off and
will be more miss than hit overnight, picking back up during the
morning hours through early afternoon.
By this time, the proximity of the deep circulation will be much
further east, allowing for drier and somewhat warmer air to
erode cloud cover in the afternoon from west to east.
Cigs will lift later in the day and break up towards nightfall.
Northwest winds will still be in play but lack the punch of
significantly cold air to overturn the air in order to maintain
any lower clouds. More likely, pockets of warmer air will also
help dissipate any lingering cu/stratocu.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings likely early Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Franks
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
654 PM EDT Tue May 2 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Through this evening)
Issued at 123 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2023
GOES water vapor and visible imagery and RAP analysis show a deep
mid-level low over the Upper Great Lakes that has been responsible
for our record breaking snow these past couple days. The final
shortwave tied to this feature is dropping through Lake Superior and
into the eastern UP at the moment. The dry air behind the wave, as
evident by the water vapor channels, has resulted in snow activity
diminishing. In western Upper Michigan through, moisture rotating
around the system continues to stream in, supporting continued snow.
The tight pressure gradient tied to this system has resulted in
strong winds as well. These stronger winds have been observed on
Lake Superior and at a majority of observation sites across the
region. River rises have been observed on a couple rivers today that
have result in additional flood advisories and warnings.
Specifically, these were in Gwinn and Harvey along the Escanaba and
Chocolay respectively.
As we progress through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening, expecting conditions to continue improving as the pressure
gradient weakens, the dry air breaks up the remaining snow in the
west, and as the main mid-level feature begins to slide east and
weaken.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 434 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2023
A break from the active weather will arrive tonight as a brief omega
block pattern sets up over the CONUS. Lingering low level moisture
will linger through this evening though until this winter storm
system pushes farther eastward into the Mid Atlantic states late
tonight. At that point, subsidence will really start overspreading
the area through Wednesday, resulting in a dry forecast. As
temperatures warm into the 40s on Wednesday, the snowmelt of the
storm will commence, thus adding to already rising rivers and
streams across the area. In addition, the next shortwave is progged
to dip into Upper Michigan late Wednesday bringing rain chances to
the western counties and eventually overspreading the central third
of the forecast area as well on Thursday. With an inverted trough
lingering over the region, periodic rain chances will then persist
into the weekend.
Meanwhile, another low will be making its way through the Plains,
entering the Upper Midwest late Sunday/Monday. So, additional
rainfall will further exacerbate the flooding problems along with a
warming trend throughout the period. High temperatures will only
continue to increase from the 50s on Thursday and Friday to 60s on
Saturday and Sunday and then summerlike temperatures in the 70s by
Monday and Tuesday. So, in a nutshell, the combo of warming temps,
periodic rain chances, and the new snowmelt will keep Upper Michigan
in a prolonged flood threat. For now, will extend the flood watch
for all of Upper Michigan except the far southern and eastern
counties into Friday and will then reassess the threat for extension
of headlines.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2023
Looks like this long lasting storm system will finally lose its grip
on the weather here. SAW and CMX is likely to see IFR or LIFR
ceilings. Gusty winds will last into tonight at SAW and CMX. IWD
will go VFR overnight.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 458 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2023
North-northwest gales to 40 knots across the eastern half of the
lake will persist through this evening, then falling below gale
force across the entire lake by late evening as the strong low
pressure system pushes eastward. Winds will then stay under 20
knots until Thursday and Friday when they increase to 25 to 30 knots
out of the northeast over the far western part of Lake Superior.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for MIZ001>006-009>011-084.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ245-248>251-
265>267.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TDUD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
724 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
Latest radar shows an area of showers across Kentucky moving
southeastward, and radar trends plus latest CAMs indicate these
showers will move across our northeast counties later this
evening. Have added a slight chance pop for our northeast third or
so in line with the HRRR and CONSShort models. Dewpoints are also
quite low and currently in the 20s/30s, so temperatures overnight
will fall into the 40s and even upper 30s in spots once again.
Lowered min temps for tonight slightly across our north and east,
but nothing too significant. Rest of forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
Long wave trough remains set up over the eastern half of the US
with a deep surface low over the Great Lakes region and high
pressure building into the central part of the county. This set
up is bringing an increased pressure gradient to our area and
another afternoon of breezy west winds. Currently we are seeing
gusts generally 25-30 mph but some areas are seeing gusts to 35
mph. These winds have also brought in a dry air mass with dew
points in the upper 20s to lower 30s and afternoon relative
humidity into the 20 percent range. A short wave is spinning
around the upper level low and is helping to bring cloud cover
this afternoon along with some weak low level instability. The
winds and clouds will clear out as the afternoon goes on. We will
likely see another batch of clouds later this evening into the
early overnight as another short wave spins around the upper level
low to our north. The upper level trough pushes east tomorrow and
high pressure will influence our weather. This will bring a quiet
day with less wind and clouds than today. Daytime highs will
remain cool for this time of year both today and tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
The weather pattern will become more unsettled in the extended
period but we will get to enjoy another quiet day on Thursday.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer pushing back into the 70s for
daytime highs. A short wave trough will then kick out of the Four
Corners region into the Plains on Friday. This will push a warm
front into TN and will bring the return of a moister air mass
with dew points pushing into the lower 60s. Warm air advection
will develop over the region Friday morning and will continue
throughout the day as the warm front slowly lifts north through
the area. This will bring periods of rain Friday morning into
Friday evening. Elevated instability will build in as the day goes
on and embedded thunderstorms will be possible with the rain
during the afternoon and evening. Shower chances will gradually
diminish during the evening and early overnight hours.
The warm front will then become a stationary boundary on Saturday.
This boundary is going to linger over the area through the
weekend into early next week. This is going to keep rain and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast. The activity will be
scattered with the best chances during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Temperatures will be warmer for the weekend and
next week warming back into the upper 70s and 80s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
Winds are already on their way down this evening. Expect northwest
winds around 5 to 10 knots overnight tonight. A quick shortwave
may bring an increase in cloud cover to CSV and SRB, but no
impacts are expected. Skies will be mostly clear on Wednesday and
winds will be out of the northwest between 10 and 20 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 45 68 44 74 / 0 0 0 10
Clarksville 41 67 42 73 / 10 0 10 10
Crossville 39 60 37 67 / 20 0 0 0
Columbia 42 68 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 40 63 39 69 / 20 0 0 0
Jamestown 39 60 37 67 / 20 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 41 67 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 42 67 39 73 / 10 0 0 0
Waverly 42 66 42 72 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Whitehead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
325 PM PDT Tue May 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A more unsettled and active pattern will develop this week, with
a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures
remain above normal through Thursday, then cool into the 60s
Friday and stay closer to average through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday afternoon: Above average temperatures will
continue through Thursday afternoon as the deep low centered over
the SF bay area forces the northern edge of the ridge located over
the central US to nose into the Inland Northwest from the east.
Temperatures are currently sitting in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with
the warmer temperatures across northeast Washington and the northern
Panhandle and the coolest temperatures in the Columbia Basin and the
L-C Valley. That seems wrong, right? Nope. Since the ridge is nosing
in from the east, the warmest 850mb temperatures around 18-20C are
located over northeast Washington and the northern Panhandle.
Current temperatures are running 10 to 20 degrees warmer than this
time yesterday.
Current radar imagery is showing convection beginning to fire up
over Lehmi County, Idaho, which lines up pretty well with the 12Z
run of the HRRR and somewhat similar to the HRW-FV3. Models
continue to advertise a disturbance rotating around the deep low
over California to push northward up into the Idaho Panhandle
early this evening, into the Spokane area around the 8pm-10pm time
frame and into northeast Washington and the Okanogan Highlands
after 2AM. Recent SPC meso analysis shows MUCAPE values over the
Inland Northwest around 1000-2000 J/kg, but there is still a bit
too much convective inhibition (CIN) to see surface initiation
right now. Temperatures are continuing to warm at the surface and
eating away at the CIN, but the robust convection won`t form until
the shortwave moves into the region. These ingredients will be
supportive of strong thunderstorms with frequent lightning. The
biggest concern will be gusty outflow winds. DCAPE around 900 to
1100 J/kg along with dry air at the surface will be be supportive
to see wind gusts up to 50 mph, with about a 10 to 15% chance to
see wind gusts up to 58 mph. Hail will also be a concern as steep
lapse rates, along with the MUCAPE to 2000 J/kg which will support
strong updrafts. The limitation will be the lack of strong
vertical shear, which would inhibit the hail growth. Because of
this, I do believe most hail to be below an inch in diameter, but
isolated storms with hail up to an inch will be possible. The
convection should taper off by early Wednesday morning. Another
round of convection is expected to fire on Wednesday/Wednesday
evening with the best chances expected over the Lower Columbia
Basin, Blue Mountains and near the Cascades. Chances for
thunderstorms will decrease Thursday as the deep low begins to
move up into the Inland Northwest for a dramatic shift in the
weather pattern. /vmt
Thursday night through Saturday: Anticipate wet and cooler weather.
The upper level low circulating across CA will gradually fill and
eject as a weaker trough across the region. The easterly flow of
moisture around the north side of the trough remain as a steady
source of moisture as precipitable waters reach near one inch
across the Inland NW on Friday. A deformation band focuses the
bulk of this precipitation across the Idaho Panhandle into north-
central Washington with the threat of moderate to heavy rain.
There’s a range of 30-45% of 0.50 inch rain in 24 hours Thursday
night into Friday from the central Idaho across the northern
counties of Washington. As for inch rainfall chances, its near 25%
for the central Idaho Panhandle. Instability lingers with the
potential for evening and afternoon thunderstorms through Friday.
This added rainfall along with the recent snow melt from warm
temperatures will push many rivers and streams to peak levels by
this weekend with several forecast to exceed flood stage. The more
impactful weather will be widespread showers across the region
and cooler temperatures. Anticipate daytime temperatures Friday
and Saturday about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than experienced this
week, and actually below normal for early May.
Saturday night through Tuesday: The upper level trough remains
over the Inland NW through the weekend and early next week as
another area of low pressure off the WA/OR coast. Showery
conditions persist especially during the afternoon and evening
hours, although amounts should remain lighter. Temperatures on the
cool side and below climatological normals. Nighttime temperatures
dip back into the 30s especially early Monday morning and Tuesday
morning. Any eager gardeners may need to keep an eye on their new
plantings especially in the valleys of the northern Idaho
Panhandle and northeast Washington early next week. The
combination of the lighter precipitation and cooler temperatures
should slow the runoff and river levels should slowly recede
during the upcoming week. /rfox.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers have begun to develop over southern Idaho. These
will continue to move northwestward through the Idaho Panhandle
and then into the Spokane area through the evneing. Models
continue to show the showers/thunder in the LC Valley/Palouse
around 00z-02z and around Spokane/CdA around 02-05z. The HREF is
suggesting the possibility (30-40% chance) of wind gusts above 30
mph in the Spokane area with the thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms
which form will be capable of producing moderate sized hail as
well. The threat will wane at all sites after 10z Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 82 54 80 50 57 / 40 10 0 10 60 70
Coeur d`Alene 53 81 53 82 51 59 / 50 10 0 10 60 80
Pullman 52 82 53 73 48 53 / 30 0 10 20 70 80
Lewiston 56 88 57 80 56 62 / 30 0 10 30 70 80
Colville 53 82 50 86 52 67 / 40 10 0 10 50 80
Sandpoint 53 78 53 82 53 64 / 30 10 0 10 60 80
Kellogg 55 79 56 82 54 58 / 50 10 0 20 60 90
Moses Lake 54 86 56 80 52 62 / 10 0 10 10 60 60
Wenatchee 58 84 58 81 54 60 / 10 10 20 20 50 60
Omak 57 83 56 86 57 66 / 30 30 0 10 50 70
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Tue May 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...A storm system lingering to the west will result in
breezy afternoons and cooler temperatures through the coming
weekend. Some moisture will spread northward over eastern areas late
Wednesday for clouds and a slight chance of sprinkles otherwise it is
expected to be dry into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The deep mean trough along the west coast will be the
main driver of our weather into early next week. The initial deep
low will remain near the central California coast into Thursday
before being kicked out by another system dropping into the mean
trough which will linger through Friday. That one will begin to open
up as another system slides onto the coast over the weekend and
slowly shifts the trough axis eastward. This pattern will keep our
area under a deep, moderate southwest flow aloft with below normal
heights and thicknesses. This will result in generally below normal
afternoon temperatures through this coming weekend and breezy
afternoons which while not too strong will pose fire weather concerns
at times.
This whole series is expected to be dry with one potential wrinkle
late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. At that time the flow is
southerly with a shortwave moving northward in the flow. Larger scale
model solutions have hinted at times the last few days of the
potential for a few showers eastern areas. Now a few of the CAM
solutions are suggesting that potential as well with the HRRR being
rather aggressive this morning. More than likely this will be
shunted northward just to our east, however given the more recent CAM
solutions showing the possibility, I opted to raise pops just a bit
over Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties and add a slight chance
for sprinkles as any precip that would occur should be light. Later
shifts can refine this further as needed.
Based on current guidance, the trough axis doesn`t shift to the east
until late Monday into Tuesday after which drier NW flow should
develop with gradually moderating temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z.
FEW clouds 12k ft MSL and SCT cirrus clouds AOA 25k ft MSL east of
KTUS through 03/03Z then clearing. BKN clouds AOA 15k ft MSL
developing after 03/14Z, mainly eastern areas. SFC winds southwest
10-18 kts with gusts up to 25 kts through 03/02Z and again Wednesday
afternoon. Winds diminishing under 10 kts from 03/02Z into Wednesday
morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds are expected each afternoon
through at least Friday resulting in elevated fire weather
conditions areawide each afternoon and local spots of critical
conditions at times mainly east of Benson. Not quite enough coverage
for a warning at this time although we need to keep a watch on
Thursday afternoon which looks to be potentially the gustiest day.
Moisture streaming northward Wednesday may be deep enough for a few
very light showers or sprinkles across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee
counties Wednesday evening. The chance is low (<15%) but not zero.
Otherwise dry weather with generally cooler than average temperatures
are expected Wednesday into early next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia
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