Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/29/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
548 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Warm afternoon weather and elevated dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s will help prime and destabilize the atmosphere for the next round of thunderstorms tonight. A potent, synchronized fast moving mid-level trough and quick moving surface cold front is moving into Central Texas now and will move through Deep South Texas by sunrise Saturday. The CWA is in a slight risk for severe weather, with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail associated with strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning. Convection could initiate as early as 5-7 PM over Zapata/Starr Counties, with these storms strengthening and tracking east through the RGV anytime between 10 PM and 6 AM. The storms are likely to consolidate into a Mesoscale Complex (MCS) moving across the CWA as a squall line similar to last Sunday. Individual discrete cells could produce large damaging hail while the squall line will be the wind producer with damaging wind gusts possibly exceeding 70 mph in some locations. Heavy rainfall could become an issue as the thunderstorms track across the region. One more issue with this system is the pressure gradient associated with the cold front. Cyclogenesis takes place over Central-Northeast Texas tonight will strengthen the pressure gradient along the Rio Grande Plains overnight into Saturday morning. A wind advisory may be needed Saturday morning for much of the CWA. Mild and drier, breezy to windy weather will prevail Saturday with a potential wind advisory persisting into afternoon across portions of the RGV and along the coast. High temps will range from the 70s to lower 80s and humidity will be noticeably lower. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Near to slightly above temperatures are forecast most of the period with very limited rain chances. An H5 ridge will be in the process of building over the Desert Southwest, providing the County Warning Area (CWA) with lots of sunshine and pleasant conditions to Sunday into Tuesday. The ridge axis propagates east Tuesday and is forecast to nudge just east of the CWA by Wednesday night. Southwesterly flow aloft commences shortly thereafter. A few ripples in the mean flow will lead to slowly increasing rain chances later next week. As of now, kept rain chances less than 10 to 15 percent both Wednesday and Thursday with better rain chances Friday. Still time to sort things out for later next week. In the meantime, enjoy some calmer weather conditions early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the aerodromes tonight, and timing of the convection is based on the HRRR model. Much more tranquil conditions will occur on Saturday in the wake of the cold front and disturbance in the middle layers of the atmosphere which will produce the convection tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Tonight through Saturday Night...The main story will be a gale warning hoisted to start at 09Z for all waters in the wake of a cold front. It may take a couple of hours after 09Z for winds to ramp up to gale force. Hazardous conditions will continue through the short term. Sunday through next Friday...Marine conditions are forecast to be much calmer Sunday thanks to high pressure overhead. As the high scoots over the Gulf of Mexico, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Lower Texas Coast Monday afternoon. This may lead to low end Small Craft Advisory criteria. Beyond that, high pressure builds over the western Gulf of Mexico with lighter onshore winds and more favorable marine conditions expected by the middle of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 (Saturday)...Strong northwest winds gusting to 30-40+ mph and relative humidity values crashing into the 25-40 percent range behind an early Saturday morning cold front may heighten the fire weather risk; however, a mitigating factor is recent widespread rains and additional rain expected tonight. Fuels are wet, and forecast fuel dryness will likely remain "above normal moisture" on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 63 78 55 85 / 70 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 61 81 53 89 / 80 0 0 0 MCALLEN 63 82 56 89 / 80 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 83 54 90 / 80 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 76 62 79 / 70 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 78 56 83 / 80 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1012 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A potent system developing over the Great Lakes tonight will bring periods of rain to the region this weekend and into next week along with locally gusty southeast winds. Continued showers and cooler temperatures are expected for most of next week as this system is slow to move out of the Northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1009 PM EDT Friday...All is quiet across the North Country this evening as cloud cover continues to thicken across the region. We have increased sky cover to overcast, which should be no surprise, given satellite imagery over the past 3 hours. Temperatures have been slow to cool given this increased cloud cover which is limiting radiational cooling. The 00Z NBM and RAP are now coming in line showing slightly warmer temperatures overnight and we have trended this way with lows increasing 2 to 4 degrees compared to the previous forecast. Overall, this is minor in the grand scheme of things. Rain remains over central NY but given the position and projected trajectory of an upper level low, it won`t be until tomorrow afternoon that we begin to see the rain drops fly. Until then, enjoy the mild and dry night as it appears a cool and wet period is upon us. Previous Discussion...After a gorgeous end to the work week, more unsettled conditions will develop this weekend as another slow moving upper level low develops over the Great Lakes. Dry conditions will prevail tonight ahead of this system, with mid/high clouds increasing through the night tempering overnight lows to the mid 30s to mid 40s. Early Saturday morning the first wave of precipitation will move into the region along a warm front affecting south/southwestern zones in the morning, and spreading northeast through northern zones in the afternoon. As the front shifts north of the region, widespread showers taper off Saturday night from southwest to northeast, but will likely continue through the night across much of central/northern Vermont. Overall QPF through the period will be variable due to low/mid level southeast flow enhancing amounts along the eastern slopes and the opposite on the western slopes in the Champlain Valley. 0.25-0.33" can be expected in the downslope regions, with up to 0.75-1" possible on the eastern slopes of the southern Greens. Temperatures Sat/Sat night will be seasonably cool in the 50s for highs, and 40s for lows. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Friday...There is some concern with a potential downslope ESE/SE wind event Sunday night into early Monday as a 50-70 kt 850mb jet traverses the region. CIPS analog hints at some similarities with a Jun 2, 2012 event during which certain communities along the western slopes of the Green Mountains like Jericho and Underhill experienced 50-70 mph wind gusts. Other areas that could potentially be impacted include the downslope areas of the White Mountains in the NEK. The northwest facing slopes of the northern Adirondacks are also in play as well, but that should be a lower probability scenario. This could lead to potential for power outages. As we have now gotten into the mesoscale model time range, if the guidance continues to come into better consensus, wind headlines are possible. At this time, we are not thinking wind impacts across the Champlain and St Lawrence valley. After a relatively dry morning and early afternoon, a period of widespread wind-driven soaking rain will impact much of our area from Sunday night into Monday. Expect widespread 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with 1.5 to 2.5 inches in the favored upslope areas. Thankfully, the slug of rainfall is spread out over a relatively long duration and the river levels have come down in the last few days. So not anticipating hydrologic issues but something to monitor as the forecast comes into focus. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Friday...For the upcoming work week, we remain in a highly amplified upper level pattern thanks to a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern. The upper low becomes even more amplified and even does a loop before finally moving off the eastern seaboard by late in the week. Expect a stretch of below normal temperatures. For reference, average highs are in the upper 50s to low 60s. Expect highs to run 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Ensemble guidance shows 850mb temperatures dipping to as low as -3C, so expect cold valley rain and mountain snow showers (mainly AOA 2500 ft) during the course of the week. With anomalously cold 500mb temperatures, this would contribute to steep mid level lapse rates so heavier showers could be accompanied by small hail and/or graupel. No threat for severe weather or winter impacts but not the nicest of weather. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period with high clouds gradually lowering overnight as a warm front approaches. Warm frontal rains start tomorrow morning after 12Z though won`t restrict flight conditions until potentially later in the day. For winds, generally calm overnight except locally continuing from the southeast and becoming gusty at KRUT. Southeasterlies pick up at all sites after 12Z Saturday with gusts locally up to 20kts at KBTV and 25kts at KRUT. Have added AMD not SKED at KPBG as we have no observations and can`t dial in. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Definite SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Chai LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Neiles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1104 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Synopsis: The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a digging upper over the northern Plains with a slow moving cold front located over northwest Wisconsin. Scattered showers have been passing over western Vilas county through the day, which has been keeping temps in the mid 40s at Manitowish Waters. As this trough amplifies over the western Great Lakes, the cold front will pick up momentum as it moves east across the region tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will be lifting north across western Ohio before broadening over northern Lower Michigan on Saturday afternoon. Sky/Precip: Mid and high clouds continue to stream northeast across the region ahead of the front, while low stratus in light rain is occurring right along and behind the front. As the front awaits for the stronger height falls to arrive before shifting east, the low clouds and precip should start to push further into north- central Wisconsin by mid to late evening, before spreading east across central and the rest of north-central Wisconsin after midnight. Some snow may mix in the the rain very late tonight into Saturday morning, with only a light dusting possible on grassy surfaces. The band of precip will continue to slowly move east, and reach the Fox Valley/northeast Wisconsin by mid to late morning. Don`t see much hope for clearing conditions over central WI despite the precip diminishing in the afternoon. Temps: No significant changes to forecast highs and lows. Perhaps cooled temps slightly on Saturday due to clouds and precip. Expect little in the way of diurnal heating on Saturday due to clouds and precip. Many areas from east-central to central Wisconsin will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler on Saturday. .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 A closed 500 mb low will slowly meander east from Wisconsin late this weekend, to over southern Ontario by early next week, and eventually the eastern Great Lakes region by the middle of next week. By the end of next week another mid level trough or closed low, depending on the model, will take aim for the western Great Lakes region. Cold temperatures combined with the aforementioned upper low could bring a few inches of accumulating snow to north-central Wisconsin Saturday night into Sunday morning. Most of this snow will be on grassy surfaces with 1 to 3 inches possible and locally higher amounts up to 4 inches in the northwest corner of Vilas County. Further south, mainly rain is expected in east-central Wisconsin with a mix of rain and snow across central and northeast Wisconsin during this period. Rain and snow showers will continue Sunday afternoon through Monday night as the low continues drifting east of the area. However, the best moisture will be just to the east or north across the Michigan UP. Therefore additional snowfall amounts across the north are expected to be less than Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some instability showers are expected to continue on Tuesday as the low continues to pull away from the region as temperatures modestly recover from well below normal levels for this time of year. Brief ridging should keep the weather dry for the middle part of next week, before another low pressure system takes aim for the area late in the week. This next low will allow temperatures to return to near normal levels as it brings another chance for precipitation to the area. The intensity and timing of this precipitation is certainly up in the air as the NWP models have vastly different solutions in this portion of the forecast. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1102 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Well-advertised rainfall beginning to spread across our area from west to east. KRHI ceilings already down to 600ft. Very likely for IFR to continue to accompany this precipitation as it spreads eastward. Saturday night, some snow may mix in with the rain over north- central Wisconsin. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kurimski AVIATION.......Kotenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
938 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure retreats over Atlantic Canada tonight with clouds increasing ahead of our next prolonged period of unsettled weather. Mainly light showers will overspread the area slowly from SW to NE Saturday into Saturday night. A stronger system will impact the area late Sunday into Monday bringing a soaking rain and gusty onshore winds. Unsettled conditions linger behind this system through the middle of next week as an upper low remains near the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 930 PM Update...Overall forecast is on track, made a few minor edits to the onset of fog on the coast to push it back about 3 hours to around 3 am as guidance seems a little fast on onset but has pushed back timing the last few runs. No other significant changes to the forecast. 6 PM Update...No significant updates with the evening package as a pleasant Friday evening is on tap for the region. High clouds are on the increase and they will continue to lower and thicken through the nigh hours but no chance for precipitation. Also watching a developing fog bank over the Cape at this hour and will decide to keep the mention of coastal fog or not after midnight based on trends this evening. High pressure over the Gulf of Maine will retreat towards Atlantic Canada tonight while a mid level ridge axis slides over the forecast area. High level clouds associated with a broad area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will over spread the area tonight followed by some mid level clouds per the 12Z HREF. The last several runs of the HRRR has been suggesting that some marine stratus and fog will develop later this evening over the waters and encroach upon the coastline tonight. However, current visible and water vapor channels suggest the airmass currently over the waters is quite dry so have not gone all in with these solutions. Instead, the going forecast calls for patchy fog over the waters and along the coast with the NH Seacoast seeing the highest likelihood of areas of fog. Otherwise, tonight will be precipitation free with lows in the 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Mid level ridge axis looks to hold firm over eastern Maine through much of the day Saturday with surface high over New Brunswick pressing down the Maine coastline. All the while, a trough over the Great Lakes will deepen with one wave of low pressure scooting south of New England. Mesoscale models suggest a band of WAA precipitation will push across NY State Saturday morning and will make it into SW NH late morning. This band of rain showers will spread northeastward through the day, although it will encounter some mid level dry air limiting precipitation chances across much of Maine until late Saturday afternoon with far eastern eastern zones staying mostly dry until Saturday night. Overall, due to the mid level dry air precipitation will be light with portions of southern and western NH looking to pick up around or less than 0.5 inches through Saturday night with lighter amounts to the north and east. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday across much of the area with some breaks in the cloud cover over northeastern zones. Onshore winds will remain steady through the day leading to much cooler conditions with highs in the 50s. The band of WAA precipitation will continue to push through the area Saturday night. Forcing, however, will weaken across northern areas leading to lower PoPs with the best chances confined across southern areas. Overall, looking at a cool and showery night Saturday night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The complicated, high wave number pattern at 500 MB across the N Hemisphere shows no signs of breaking down anytime, and this will keep the wx unsettled and cool across N New England into next week. The only warmer period will be during the time when onshore flow and moist air aloft will be present, and we not be able to experience the warm air aloft. The main event is right at the start of the extended, Sunday and especially Sunday night, as southern stream wave over the gulf states Sat night starts to gets pulled back by the large 500 MB low to our W and begins to phase with it. Initially broad WAA will bring light rain or showers to the region Sunday morning, but models do suggest strong dynamics at 500 MB MB will lead to strong thermal forcing in the mid level, producing the onshore fire hose across the region Sunday night. A few things to watch, which could affect the intensity of the system, the 500 MB wave to the south, is part of deep convection, and it’s always hard to day whether the convection is driving the system, or the system is driving convection as it rounds the base of the larger closed low. This leads to the other question of how the sfc low develop at the triple point to the S on Sunday. The mains system will track N-S to our W, but this point will help improve the thermal dynamics, and could enhance the convection, leading to heavier rain. All this being said, still looks like a good bet for a soaker late Sunday and Sunday night with 1-2” of rain in this time alone. Given this amount of rain, a few of the area rivers come to around bank full, with minor flooding possible. As far as any flash flooding goes, it seems like this will not be significant issue, except maybe in the higher terrain where there is still some snow. Winds will pick up late Sunday, and some gusts of 40-45 mph may possible near the coast. lows only dropping a few degrees. On Monday, that system will shift N of the region with W-SW flow behind it. Should clearing from W-E during the day, and it will breezy, with wind gusts to 30 mph. Upper level low then settles back in just our W, with cyclonic flow and cooler temps with showers Tue-Wed at least. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR tonight into Saturday across interior terminals. Along the coast guidance has suggested that marine fog or stratus will develop over the waters and push towards the coast overnight. Confidence is not all that high in this occurring with a dry airmass in place and have only brought IFR/LIFR to PSM. Clouds thicken and lower through Saturday with SHRA developing SW to NE with MVFR restrictions possible late Saturday and Saturday night. Long Term...IFR to LIFR expected Sunday into Sunday night with rain through the period. Wind gusts could approach 40 kts late Sunday and Sunday night on the coast. Should see gradual improvement to VFR from W-E on Monday. Period of MVFR in SHRA are possible on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas stay below SCA thresholds tonight into Saturday with increasing onshore flow late Saturday and Saturday night. There is the possibility that marine fog could develop over the waters tonight and push towards the coast. Onshore flow strengthens late Saturday ahead of an area of low pressure with SCAs likely needed Saturday night. Long Term...E-SE flow increases Sunday and gale are likely late Sunday and Sunday night with an outside chance of storm force winds. Winds will switch to W on Monday, but will likely need SCA into Monday evening. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Dumont/Schroeter SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Cempa AVIATION... MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
924 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 .Forecast Update... Issued at 923 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 - Partial clearing overnight - Cool Surface analysis late this evening shows low pressure over NW Ohio. Due to this feature cyclonic flow remained across Central Indiana. GOES16 shows the back shield of cloud cover progressing northeast, about half way across Central Indiana. Clearing was found across IL and SW Indiana as some high clouds were arriving from the southwest. Cool northwest surface flow was in place across Central Indiana, with temperatures in the 50s. The low pressure system to the northwest is expected to continue to progress northeast overnight, taking the associated cloud shield with it. THus decreasing cloudiness will be expected overnight. Forecast soundings across the area tonight continue to trend dry overnight. Surface dew point depressions overnight are suggested to fall to 3-5F. Thus only some isolated patchy fog appears possible given the recent rains and lack of drying. Given some clearing and light winds along with the drying, lows in the upper 30s and low 40s will be on the mark. && .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Rest of Today and Tonight... The surface low will continue to move off to the NE this evening. Moisture has started to wrap around the low, causing it to occlude. This has kept cloud cover over most of the region. However, dry air with mid level NW flow should start to erode the cloud layer, leading to clearing skies tonight. Modest CAA will induce height rises in the low levels, further enforcing clearing low level clouds in areas that are already beginning entrainment. On the otherhand, high pressure can lead to PBL suppression, supporting narrow saturated layers and a thin layer of cloud cover. Also of note will be varying upper level clouds from an up stream convective system. Current expectation is for moderate diurnal cooling overnight as surface dew points drop, with coldest temperatures in areas that experience clear conditions. Low lying patchy fog is also possible in these areas. That looks to be most likely over western portions of the state. Clear areas should see lows in the upper 30s with mid 40s for lows to the east. Tomorrow... A deeper upper level trough will approach from the west tomorrow, with weak CVA just upstream of the axis. This should lead to weak height falls over the region, supporting the eastward push of a frontal boundary in the afternoon/evening. Surface dewpoints will remain low throughout most of the day, but will increase as moisture returns from a SW wind. The thermo profile supports convective development along the boundary, but will greatly depend on the amount of moisture return out ahead of it, as forcing will primarily be surface based. If convection does occur, updraft strength should be large enough for isolated thunder/lightning within scattered showers. An organized cell cannot be ruled out, given a fairly high amount of shear above 850mb. For now, no severe weather is expected, but will be closely monitored. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow as surface flow changes to out of the SW. Expect highs in the mid 60s for most of the area. && .Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 * Damp and unsettled pattern through much of the long term * Cool temperatures late weekend through the middle of next week Guidance remains in strong agreement regarding the development of a blocking pattern with a deep upper trough across the eastern CONUS through the period. Broad upper level troughing over the central and eastern CONUS will deepen over the weekend in response to an amplifying ridge near the Rockies. An anomalously deep closed upper level low is then expected to develop over the Great Lakes and slowly push into the northeast states Wednesday. The slow progression of this upper low will lead to damp, cool, and unsettled weather for at least the first half of the period. Dry air associated with high pressure over the central CONUS may advect into the area midweek and limit precipitation chances. This should allow for a quick push toward more seasonal temperatures Thursday and Friday with a drier western flow and modest WAA. However, this would likely be short-lived as guidance suggest more unsettled weather late next week. Temperatures will start near seasonal Saturday before dropping 10- 15F below normal Sunday through Tuesday. Increasing heights aloft should allow temperatures to warm back up to near seasonal late next week. Considerable cloud cover and winds overnight should limit any frost potential, even with temperatures across the north likely falling into the upper 30s. However, it cannot be ruled out completely if any clearing occurs overnight next week and winds are lighter than expected. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 649 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Impacts: - Lingering MVFR Cigs are expected to improve to VFR. - Fog possible late at LAF. - Showers with VFR Cigs possible on Saturday afternoon. Discussion: The cloud shield with MVFR Cigs associated with low pressure centered over NW Ohio was continuing to influence Indiana/s weather. Radar showed that the bulk of precipitation has ended however the back edge of cloud cover was found near the Indiana/Illinois state line. This clearing feature was making steady progress northeast as along with the departing area of low pressure. Thus will keep some clouds across the TAF site for the first few hours of the period, but trend toward some gradual clearing overnight. Due to recent rain and lingering lower level moisture, this could lead to some MVFR fog at LAF. For now a TEMPO group has been included to account for this. On Saturday, broad cyclonic flow remains across the region as the models suggest another wave within the flow dropping from Ontario across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. As this happens, the HRRR suggests a line of shower development late in the afternoon pinwheeling around the broader reigning cyclonic circulation aloft. Thus have included a period of VCSH for now as this feature passes. Still through all of this Cigs should remain VFR. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Puma Short Term...Updike Long Term...Updike/Melo Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
946 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 .Forecast Update... Issued at 946 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Low clouds have mostly cleared out across central KY as a small area of sfc high pressure has moved over south-central KY and Middle TN. Winds have also diminished considerably since before sunset. Conditions appear favorable for at least patchy to areas of fog to develop overnight. Thickening mid and high clouds closer to sunrise will help limit the dense fog threat. But certainly cannot rule out some patchy dense fog tonight, especially across south-central KY. && .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Interesting weather pattern shaping up tonight into tomorrow across the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. A series of upper-level lows and disturbances will impact the area as the current sfc low over southern OH/northeast KY meanders and retrogrades back to the NNW keeping mostly cloudy skies and brings another chance for showers with a slight chance of isolated thunder for the start of the weekend. The first shortwave trough will continue to lift northeast through Ohio towards Lake Erie before getting absorbed back into the main flow by tomorrow morning. A second positive tilted trough stretching from northern MN to the TX Panhandle will slowly move eastward and produce two cutoff lows north and south by tomorrow morning. The main northern low will form over MN while the southern low develops over east TX and works across the Gulf Coast at the base of the main upper trough. Current visible satellite and water vapor show clearing skies and drier air filtering in behind the departing trough and slow moving sfc low over Ohio. This will help to break up the clouds and provide partly cloudy to mostly clear skies as we go overnight. If we see enough clearing there could be some patchy fog develop, and this idea has support from some of the hi-res models like the HRRR/NAM3K/NBM to give it a little more confidence. Lows will be in the mid to low 40s. Clouds are expected to increase by morning across the area as a sfc low forms along with the southern cutoff low over the Gulf Coast and the main northern low drops southward over the Upper Midwest. The main challenge with tomorrow`s forecast is rain chances during the afternoon. As the southern tandem of upper and sfc low work eastward the northern upper-low and retrograding sfc low help to swing a cold front across the Ohio Valley and over central KY/southern IN by late afternoon/early evening. The question will be how much moisture and good upper support does the southern system take possibly inhibiting the development of showers and isolated rumbles of thunder. There are some difference in the CAMS with the NAM showing a much drier solution while the HRRR and some of the other hi-res models are a little more aggressive. Decided to use NBM for PoPs tomorrow as I felt it was a nice blend of the two solutions going with chance (30- 50 percent) PoPs tomorrow afternoon as the front approaches. Highs should be able to get into the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow afternoon. .Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Saturday Night - Monday Night... A deep closed low will wobble over the Great Lakes through the end of the weekend and into early next week, with expansive coverage down into our area as well. This is typically a cooler, more cloudy, and occasionally wet type of pattern and this continues to be reflected in the ongoing sensible weather forecast. A vort lobe embedded in the parent trough will be rotating through the region Saturday night with some isolated to scattered lingering showers still possible. Chances for continued light showers will then continue into Sunday as another vort lobe rotates through. Overall, the best chances for showers look to be across the northern and eastern portions of the CWA each period, but can`t rule out some light precipitation anywhere during this time. The upper low loses a little influence by Monday as it steadily drifts eastward, however will still keep some low chances for a measurable shower across our far north and east CWA. This will be a cooler stretch of weather with temperatures well below normal for this time of year. Highs on Sunday only reach the upper 50s and low 60s. Monday should be the coolest day of the forecast period, with highs only peaking in the low to mid 50s for most. Southern KY should still reach the low 60s a bit farther displaced from the influence of the upper low. Looks a bit too mild for overnight frost, but Monday morning lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Tuesday - Wednesday... Still can`t rule out a light shower across our NE CWA by Tuesday, but overall this will be a transition day as the pesky upper low really loses influence, and dry NW flow aloft dominates our upper pattern. Surface high pressure also begins to get more established over the CWA through mid week. As a result, an overall drier and trending milder stretch of weather is expected. Highs are back in the low to mid 60s by Tuesday, and mostly in the the 65 to 70 degree range by Wednesday. Chilly nights will still be the rule with lows bottoming out in the upper 30s and low 40s. Wednesday Night - Friday... Lower confidence by Thursday into Friday as models diverge on solutions with respect to the upper pattern. Temps will be more solidly into the low 70s by this time with chances for showers and thunderstorms either day based on ensemble means. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 752 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Low clouds continue to gradually scour out from SW to NE, so LEX will hold on to a BKN ceiling longer this evening. However, VFR conditions are likely through 06z. Diminishing winds overnight, particularly over the southern half of KY, will likely allow areas of fog to develop (given the clearing trend ongoing). Have included a brief period of IFR fog at BWG where confidence is highest in fog development, but thickening mid-level clouds early Saturday should limit IFR/LIFR coverage and duration. Winds will increase out of the SW on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers will be possible in the afternoon and evening. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...EBW Short Term...BTN Long Term...BJS Aviation...EBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
828 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple areas of low pressure with fronts draped between them make for a dynamic forecast into the weekend. Another round of rain and tstorms slated for Eastern NC this evening into tonight. High pressure will briefly build into the area on Saturday bringing quieter conditions to the region before another strong storm system moves up the East Coast Sunday into Monday. Drier and cooler weather is then expected through early next week as high pressure builds into the Eastern CONUS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 8 PM Friday...Today`s second round of convection has started to pop up over the coastal plain with some stronger storms moving into our far NW counties. RAP analysis shows 1000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the FA with highest values concentrated south of HWY70. With favorable SBCAPE values and sufficient deep-layer shear (40 kts), the possibility for a few strong isolated thunderstorms remains for the next few hours. Confidence for areas of patchy fog has increased. After the showers and thunderstorms move out after midnight, the potential for fog development will start in our northern zones and grow southward through the early morning hours. After sunrise, the fog should start to dissipate from south to north, but could hang on for a few hours after sunrise for far inland zones and the NOBX. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As of 1600 Friday...Low pressure will shift off the coast early Saturday morning, with subsidence and drying aloft developing behind it for Saturday. As a result mostly dry conditions are expected, and with low level thicknesses fairly high, afternoon temperatures should climb into the low 80s across most of the area, mid-upper 70s immediate coast where a seabreeze circulation developing late afternoon will provide some relief. With that said, have begun the process of increasing PoPs in the afternoon. This is due to an area of greater moisture convergence between the weak cold front draped over the FA around HWY17 and the afternoon seabreeze. HiRes models have begun resolving some light showers in this area but with little upper level support, any showers that could develop are expected to be shallow and light so have kept PoPs just shy of SChC for now. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 PM Fri...Another strong low pressure system moves up the Eastern Seaboard Sunday and into Monday bringing the threat of more heavy rain and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier high pressure then builds in early through mid next week with much quieter conditions expected. Late Weekend...By early Sunday a potent and deep upper level trough will spawn low pressure development across the Deep South. This low will then move quickly up the Eastern Seaboard later Sunday, and is likely to deepen rapidly as it moves across NC. This will bring another period of widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms, as well as strong winds. A potentially significant severe threat could develop if instability is sufficient and the current track of the low, just inland of the forecast area, holds. Monday through Friday...Behind the strong low pressure system and cold front, breezy conditions are expected early next week as cooler and drier high pressure moves in from the west while a large occluded low sits over the SE Canada. Some fire weather concerns are possible as afternoon RHs dip below 30 percent and wind gusts reach 25-30 mph. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18z Friday night/... As of 8 PM Friday...All TAF sites are currently sitting at VFR but conditions are expected to deteriorate with the development of fog after midnight once the showers and thunderstorms have moved toward the coast. PGV will likely drop to MVFR VIS shortly aftermidnight with EWN and ISO following suit within a couple of hours. Fog could be dense enough to drop visibilites down to IFR-LIFR conditions (1-2 SM) around sunrise. Visibilities will quickly increase as the fog burns off but sub-VFR cigs could hang around for a few hours for ISO and PGV. OAJ should experience farily short-lived impacts from the fog with only a brief drop to MVFR VIS. LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 400 PM Fri...VFR conditions return Saturday morning, though this will be short lived as another low pressure system moving through the area on Sunday has the potential to bring another extended period of sub-VFR conditions into Monday morning. VFR conditions are expected to develop late Mon and continue on Tue as high pressure builds over the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday night/... As of 1615 Friday...The warm front has lifted through most of the area, currently located over Nern Sounds and Coastal Waters with a new low pressure circulation spinning up along the front SE of Cape Lookout continuing to bring rather gusty S-SWerly winds to our coastal waters. Forecast guidance is in general consensus with widespread 15-20G25KT over coastal waters this afternoon into this evening, subsiding to ~10-15G20kt tonight. Rain and tstorm activity has ceased for the afternoon but another round of showers and storms is expected late this evening and into tonight. Seas persist around 6-10 feet through the rest of Friday keeping all coastal waters well into SCA criteria through the period. Seas subside briefly overnight becoming 5-6ft around sunrise Saturday LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...Winds briefly diminish Sat to SW 10-15 kt then, a strong area of low pressure will lift through the coastal waters with strong southerly flow developing at 20-30 kts with a potential for Gale Force winds. Winds will shift to the west Monday and Tuesday diminishing slightly to 15-25 kt. Hazardous seas are expected for most of the long term with seas briefly subsiding to 3-5 ft Sat then building to 7-11 ft Sunday into Monday morning. Seas subside but remain elevated AOA 6 ft Mon afternoon into Tue. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 400 PM Fri... No significant changes to the forecast thinking as increased fire danger remains possible Monday through Wednesday. Behind a strong low pressure system Monday morning, cooler and drier high pressure will move into the area through most of next week. While this occurs, a large and occluded low pressure system will sit over SE Canada, and keep a strong pressure gradient in tact across the Carolinas for several days. RH values will drop to at least 30%-35% each afternoon, while winds remain strong at 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. Deep mixing may promote even stronger wind gusts at times. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204. Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB/OJC SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...JME/SGK AVIATION...CEB/OJC MARINE...JME/CEB FIRE WEATHER...MHX
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Key Messages: - Frost Advisory tonight for portions of eastern Nebraska. - Windy this weekend with very high rangeland fire danger, especially over northeast Nebraska. - Dry and warming conditions through the middle of next week, resulting in continued fire-weather concerns. Tonight: Widely scattered light showers ongoing as of early afternoon are expected to diminish this evening with skies clearing from northwest to southeast tonight. Gusty north-northwest winds will also diminish this evening with overnight with lows falling into the 30s. The best frost potential will be over northeast NE into portions of southeast NE, and the frost advisory has been expanded to include Knox, Cedar, Wayne, and Cuming counties. This Weekend: An amplifying midlevel trough over the upper-MS Valley is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone over the Great Lakes with strong north-northwest surface winds developing on the western periphery of the system over the mid-MO Valley. An embedded shortwave trough and associated midlevel jet streak are forecast to dive south through the area Saturday with the potential for some light rain over portions southwest IA. Over eastern NE, comparatively warmer temperatures (i.e., highs in the mid 60s to low 70s) will combine with minimum RH values of 25 to 30 percent, and the strong north-northwest winds with gusts of 35 to 40 mph to create very high rangeland fire danger over over northeast NE. We will be monitoring forecast conditions in the Albion, Norfolk, and Neligh vicinities for the potential need for a Red Flag Warning Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday (i.e., highs in the mid 50s to low 60s), but continued strong north-northwest winds with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph and minimum RH of 25 to 30 percent will again result in very high rangeland fire danger over northeast NE into portions of southeast NE. Next Week: A midlevel blocking pattern (characterized by lows along the West Coast and over the Great Lakes, and an amplified ridge over the Rockies) early in the week is forecast to break down by about Thursday with growing model spread thereafter. Daytime temperatures in the 60s Monday and Tuesday are forecast to warm into the 70s and perhaps low 80s by Wednesday with readings hovering in the 70s through Friday. Dry conditions are forecast through midweek with low PoPs Thursday and Friday. Due to the dry conditions and warming temperatures, high to very high rangeland fire danger is forecast through much of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Widely scattered showers ongoing as of midday are expected to decrease in areal coverage this afternoon with the KOFK and KOMA sites being potentially affected for the next hour or two. MVFR ceilings will clear from northwest to southeast this afternoon and early evening with gusty north or northwest winds persisting through the afternoon before diminishing this evening. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Showers falling in the vicinity of LNK and OMA are quickly ending. VFR conditions have built into all three TAF sites and should remain in place over the next 24 hours. It`ll take a couple of hours longer in SW Iowa. With wet conditions, clearing skies, and decreasing winds, there is some concern that radiational fog could develop overnight but very little model support for this theory so have left it out of the TAFs. HREF and HRRR show mean visibility slipping to about 8-9 miles... so it is not impossible. Will continue to monitor new runs. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012- 016>018-030>033-042-043-050-065-078-088. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Nicolaisen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1046 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The trough that is bringing showers to our area today continues to swing across the south-central plains and towards the Gulf Coast as a deepening northern-stream trough descends towards the Great Lakes region. Rain is slow to move through the area, and therefore, adjusted POPs this evening and overnight towards the HRRR mean. An isolated thunderstorm may develop over Bryan and Atoka Counties later this afternoon, though chances we will see any severe weather has dropped considerably. Clouds begin clearing over western counties tonight, central OK early tomorrow morning, and then southeast parts of the CWA by mid-day. Expect low temperatures in the mid to upper 30`s across northern and western Oklahoma. Other than the breezy N/NNW winds tomorrow, it should be a pleasant day weather-wise with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s/70s. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 The upper pattern remains highly amplified as the deepening trough moves slowly over the Great Lakes region ahead of an approaching ridge. Our area remains under northwest flow which pushes a few reinforcing fronts into Oklahoma. This will keep high temperatures in the 60s Sunday and Monday. This ridge is forecast to move slowly across the plains, and a shortwave embedded on the backside of the ridge brings shower/storm chances to our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Flow aloft shifts to the southwest on Thursday as the ridge passes and we become influenced by the strong upper low forecast to dig over southern California. A strong jet streak is prog`d to develop at the base of the trough over the Baja Peninsula on Wednesday which prompts the development of a shortwave that heads towards the plains. A dryline develops over the TX panhandle or western Oklahoma, and this setup brings a chance showers/storms (perhaps severe) on Thursday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Rain and showers continue across portions of Oklahoma as they gradually shift south and east. Near the showers, As showers exit the region, ceilings will gradually improve, until the region has VFR ceilings overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will remain northerly and gusty through Saturday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 43 68 46 69 / 70 0 0 0 Hobart OK 38 73 44 73 / 50 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 43 72 47 77 / 50 0 0 0 Gage OK 35 73 41 70 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 40 70 41 68 / 70 0 0 0 Durant OK 48 69 48 74 / 70 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...50