Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/29/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
548 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Warm afternoon weather and elevated dew points in the upper 60s
to lower 70s will help prime and destabilize the atmosphere for
the next round of thunderstorms tonight. A potent, synchronized
fast moving mid-level trough and quick moving surface cold front
is moving into Central Texas now and will move through Deep South
Texas by sunrise Saturday. The CWA is in a slight risk for severe
weather, with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail
associated with strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent
lightning.
Convection could initiate as early as 5-7 PM over Zapata/Starr
Counties, with these storms strengthening and tracking east through
the RGV anytime between 10 PM and 6 AM. The storms are likely to
consolidate into a Mesoscale Complex (MCS) moving across the CWA as
a squall line similar to last Sunday. Individual discrete cells
could produce large damaging hail while the squall line will be the
wind producer with damaging wind gusts possibly exceeding 70 mph in
some locations. Heavy rainfall could become an issue as the
thunderstorms track across the region.
One more issue with this system is the pressure gradient associated
with the cold front. Cyclogenesis takes place over Central-Northeast
Texas tonight will strengthen the pressure gradient along the Rio
Grande Plains overnight into Saturday morning. A wind advisory may
be needed Saturday morning for much of the CWA.
Mild and drier, breezy to windy weather will prevail Saturday with a
potential wind advisory persisting into afternoon across portions of
the RGV and along the coast. High temps will range from the 70s to
lower 80s and humidity will be noticeably lower.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Near to slightly above temperatures are forecast most of the period
with very limited rain chances. An H5 ridge will be in the process
of building over the Desert Southwest, providing the County
Warning Area (CWA) with lots of sunshine and pleasant conditions
to Sunday into Tuesday. The ridge axis propagates east Tuesday
and is forecast to nudge just east of the CWA by Wednesday night.
Southwesterly flow aloft commences shortly thereafter. A few
ripples in the mean flow will lead to slowly increasing rain
chances later next week. As of now, kept rain chances less than 10
to 15 percent both Wednesday and Thursday with better rain
chances Friday. Still time to sort things out for later next week.
In the meantime, enjoy some calmer weather conditions early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the aerodromes tonight,
and timing of the convection is based on the HRRR model. Much more
tranquil conditions will occur on Saturday in the wake of the cold
front and disturbance in the middle layers of the atmosphere which
will produce the convection tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Tonight through Saturday Night...The main story will be a gale
warning hoisted to start at 09Z for all waters in the wake of a cold
front. It may take a couple of hours after 09Z for winds to ramp up
to gale force. Hazardous conditions will continue through the short
term.
Sunday through next Friday...Marine conditions are forecast to be
much calmer Sunday thanks to high pressure overhead. As the high
scoots over the Gulf of Mexico, the pressure gradient will tighten
over the Lower Texas Coast Monday afternoon. This may lead to low
end Small Craft Advisory criteria. Beyond that, high pressure builds
over the western Gulf of Mexico with lighter onshore winds and more
favorable marine conditions expected by the middle of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
(Saturday)...Strong northwest winds gusting to 30-40+ mph and
relative humidity values crashing into the 25-40 percent range
behind an early Saturday morning cold front may heighten the fire
weather risk; however, a mitigating factor is recent widespread
rains and additional rain expected tonight. Fuels are wet, and
forecast fuel dryness will likely remain "above normal moisture" on
Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 63 78 55 85 / 70 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 61 81 53 89 / 80 0 0 0
MCALLEN 63 82 56 89 / 80 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 61 83 54 90 / 80 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 76 62 79 / 70 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 78 56 83 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1012 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A potent system developing over the Great Lakes tonight will
bring periods of rain to the region this weekend and into next
week along with locally gusty southeast winds. Continued showers
and cooler temperatures are expected for most of next week as
this system is slow to move out of the Northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1009 PM EDT Friday...All is quiet across the North Country
this evening as cloud cover continues to thicken across the
region. We have increased sky cover to overcast, which should be
no surprise, given satellite imagery over the past 3 hours.
Temperatures have been slow to cool given this increased cloud
cover which is limiting radiational cooling. The 00Z NBM and RAP
are now coming in line showing slightly warmer temperatures
overnight and we have trended this way with lows increasing 2
to 4 degrees compared to the previous forecast. Overall, this is
minor in the grand scheme of things. Rain remains over central
NY but given the position and projected trajectory of an upper
level low, it won`t be until tomorrow afternoon that we begin to
see the rain drops fly. Until then, enjoy the mild and dry night
as it appears a cool and wet period is upon us.
Previous Discussion...After a gorgeous end to the work week,
more unsettled conditions will develop this weekend as another
slow moving upper level low develops over the Great Lakes. Dry
conditions will prevail tonight ahead of this system, with
mid/high clouds increasing through the night tempering overnight
lows to the mid 30s to mid 40s. Early Saturday morning the
first wave of precipitation will move into the region along a
warm front affecting south/southwestern zones in the morning,
and spreading northeast through northern zones in the afternoon.
As the front shifts north of the region, widespread showers
taper off Saturday night from southwest to northeast, but will
likely continue through the night across much of
central/northern Vermont. Overall QPF through the period will be
variable due to low/mid level southeast flow enhancing amounts
along the eastern slopes and the opposite on the western slopes
in the Champlain Valley. 0.25-0.33" can be expected in the
downslope regions, with up to 0.75-1" possible on the eastern
slopes of the southern Greens. Temperatures Sat/Sat night will
be seasonably cool in the 50s for highs, and 40s for lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Friday...There is some concern with a
potential downslope ESE/SE wind event Sunday night into early
Monday as a 50-70 kt 850mb jet traverses the region. CIPS analog
hints at some similarities with a Jun 2, 2012 event during
which certain communities along the western slopes of the Green
Mountains like Jericho and Underhill experienced 50-70 mph wind
gusts. Other areas that could potentially be impacted include
the downslope areas of the White Mountains in the NEK. The
northwest facing slopes of the northern Adirondacks are also in
play as well, but that should be a lower probability scenario.
This could lead to potential for power outages. As we have now
gotten into the mesoscale model time range, if the guidance
continues to come into better consensus, wind headlines are
possible. At this time, we are not thinking wind impacts across
the Champlain and St Lawrence valley.
After a relatively dry morning and early afternoon, a period of
widespread wind-driven soaking rain will impact much of our
area from Sunday night into Monday. Expect widespread 0.5 to 1.5
inches of rainfall with 1.5 to 2.5 inches in the favored
upslope areas. Thankfully, the slug of rainfall is spread out
over a relatively long duration and the river levels have come
down in the last few days. So not anticipating hydrologic issues
but something to monitor as the forecast comes into focus.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Friday...For the upcoming work week, we remain
in a highly amplified upper level pattern thanks to a negative
NAO and positive PNA pattern. The upper low becomes even more
amplified and even does a loop before finally moving off the
eastern seaboard by late in the week. Expect a stretch of below
normal temperatures. For reference, average highs are in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Expect highs to run 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Ensemble guidance shows 850mb temperatures dipping to as
low as -3C, so expect cold valley rain and mountain snow
showers (mainly AOA 2500 ft) during the course of the week. With
anomalously cold 500mb temperatures, this would contribute to
steep mid level lapse rates so heavier showers could be
accompanied by small hail and/or graupel. No threat for severe
weather or winter impacts but not the nicest of weather.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with high clouds gradually lowering overnight as a warm
front approaches. Warm frontal rains start tomorrow morning
after 12Z though won`t restrict flight conditions until
potentially later in the day. For winds, generally calm
overnight except locally continuing from the southeast and
becoming gusty at KRUT. Southeasterlies pick up at all sites
after 12Z Saturday with gusts locally up to 20kts at KBTV and
25kts at KRUT. Have added AMD not SKED at KPBG as we have no
observations and can`t dial in.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Definite SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Clay/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Neiles
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1104 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Synopsis: The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show
a digging upper over the northern Plains with a slow moving cold
front located over northwest Wisconsin. Scattered showers have
been passing over western Vilas county through the day, which has
been keeping temps in the mid 40s at Manitowish Waters. As this
trough amplifies over the western Great Lakes, the cold front will
pick up momentum as it moves east across the region tonight into
Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will be lifting north across
western Ohio before broadening over northern Lower Michigan on
Saturday afternoon.
Sky/Precip: Mid and high clouds continue to stream northeast
across the region ahead of the front, while low stratus in light
rain is occurring right along and behind the front. As the front
awaits for the stronger height falls to arrive before shifting
east, the low clouds and precip should start to push further into north-
central Wisconsin by mid to late evening, before spreading east
across central and the rest of north-central Wisconsin after
midnight. Some snow may mix in the the rain very late tonight into
Saturday morning, with only a light dusting possible on grassy
surfaces.
The band of precip will continue to slowly move east, and reach
the Fox Valley/northeast Wisconsin by mid to late morning. Don`t
see much hope for clearing conditions over central WI despite the
precip diminishing in the afternoon.
Temps: No significant changes to forecast highs and lows. Perhaps
cooled temps slightly on Saturday due to clouds and precip. Expect
little in the way of diurnal heating on Saturday due to clouds
and precip. Many areas from east-central to central Wisconsin
will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler on Saturday.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
A closed 500 mb low will slowly meander east from Wisconsin late
this weekend, to over southern Ontario by early next week, and
eventually the eastern Great Lakes region by the middle of next
week. By the end of next week another mid level trough or closed
low, depending on the model, will take aim for the western Great
Lakes region.
Cold temperatures combined with the aforementioned upper low could
bring a few inches of accumulating snow to north-central Wisconsin
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Most of this snow will be on
grassy surfaces with 1 to 3 inches possible and locally higher
amounts up to 4 inches in the northwest corner of Vilas County.
Further south, mainly rain is expected in east-central Wisconsin
with a mix of rain and snow across central and northeast Wisconsin
during this period.
Rain and snow showers will continue Sunday afternoon through
Monday night as the low continues drifting east of the area.
However, the best moisture will be just to the east or north
across the Michigan UP. Therefore additional snowfall amounts
across the north are expected to be less than Saturday night into
Sunday morning.
Some instability showers are expected to continue on Tuesday as
the low continues to pull away from the region as temperatures
modestly recover from well below normal levels for this time of
year.
Brief ridging should keep the weather dry for the middle part of
next week, before another low pressure system takes aim for the
area late in the week. This next low will allow temperatures to
return to near normal levels as it brings another chance for
precipitation to the area. The intensity and timing of this
precipitation is certainly up in the air as the NWP models have
vastly different solutions in this portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Well-advertised rainfall beginning to spread across our area from
west to east. KRHI ceilings already down to 600ft. Very likely for
IFR to continue to accompany this precipitation as it spreads
eastward.
Saturday night, some snow may mix in with the rain over north-
central Wisconsin.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kotenberg
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
938 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure retreats over Atlantic Canada tonight with clouds
increasing ahead of our next prolonged period of unsettled
weather. Mainly light showers will overspread the area slowly
from SW to NE Saturday into Saturday night. A stronger system
will impact the area late Sunday into Monday bringing a soaking
rain and gusty onshore winds. Unsettled conditions linger
behind this system through the middle of next week as an upper
low remains near the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM Update...Overall forecast is on track, made a few minor
edits to the onset of fog on the coast to push it back about 3
hours to around 3 am as guidance seems a little fast on onset
but has pushed back timing the last few runs. No other
significant changes to the forecast.
6 PM Update...No significant updates with the evening package as
a pleasant Friday evening is on tap for the region. High clouds
are on the increase and they will continue to lower and thicken
through the nigh hours but no chance for precipitation. Also
watching a developing fog bank over the Cape at this hour and
will decide to keep the mention of coastal fog or not after
midnight based on trends this evening.
High pressure over the Gulf of Maine will retreat towards Atlantic
Canada tonight while a mid level ridge axis slides over the forecast
area. High level clouds associated with a broad area of low pressure
over the Ohio Valley will over spread the area tonight followed by
some mid level clouds per the 12Z HREF. The last several runs of the
HRRR has been suggesting that some marine stratus and fog will
develop later this evening over the waters and encroach upon the
coastline tonight. However, current visible and water vapor channels
suggest the airmass currently over the waters is quite dry so have
not gone all in with these solutions. Instead, the going forecast
calls for patchy fog over the waters and along the coast with the NH
Seacoast seeing the highest likelihood of areas of fog. Otherwise,
tonight will be precipitation free with lows in the 30s to low
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge axis looks to hold firm over eastern Maine through
much of the day Saturday with surface high over New Brunswick
pressing down the Maine coastline. All the while, a trough over the
Great Lakes will deepen with one wave of low pressure scooting south
of New England. Mesoscale models suggest a band of WAA precipitation
will push across NY State Saturday morning and will make it into SW
NH late morning. This band of rain showers will spread northeastward
through the day, although it will encounter some mid level dry air
limiting precipitation chances across much of Maine until late
Saturday afternoon with far eastern eastern zones staying mostly dry
until Saturday night. Overall, due to the mid level dry air
precipitation will be light with portions of southern and western NH
looking to pick up around or less than 0.5 inches through Saturday
night with lighter amounts to the north and east. Mostly cloudy
skies are expected on Saturday across much of the area with some
breaks in the cloud cover over northeastern zones. Onshore winds
will remain steady through the day leading to much cooler conditions
with highs in the 50s.
The band of WAA precipitation will continue to push through the area
Saturday night. Forcing, however, will weaken across northern areas
leading to lower PoPs with the best chances confined across southern
areas. Overall, looking at a cool and showery night Saturday
night with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The complicated, high wave number pattern at 500 MB across the
N Hemisphere shows no signs of breaking down anytime, and this
will keep the wx unsettled and cool across N New England into
next week. The only warmer period will be during the time when
onshore flow and moist air aloft will be present, and we not be
able to experience the warm air aloft.
The main event is right at the start of the extended, Sunday and
especially Sunday night, as southern stream wave over the gulf
states Sat night starts to gets pulled back by the large 500 MB
low to our W and begins to phase with it. Initially broad WAA
will bring light rain or showers to the region Sunday morning,
but models do suggest strong dynamics at 500 MB MB will lead to
strong thermal forcing in the mid level, producing the onshore
fire hose across the region Sunday night. A few things to watch,
which could affect the intensity of the system, the 500 MB wave
to the south, is part of deep convection, and it’s always hard
to day whether the convection is driving the system, or the
system is driving convection as it rounds the base of the larger
closed low. This leads to the other question of how the sfc low
develop at the triple point to the S on Sunday. The mains
system will track N-S to our W, but this point will help improve
the thermal dynamics, and could enhance the convection, leading
to heavier rain. All this being said, still looks like a good
bet for a soaker late Sunday and Sunday night with 1-2” of rain
in this time alone. Given this amount of rain, a few of the area
rivers come to around bank full, with minor flooding possible.
As far as any flash flooding goes, it seems like this will not
be significant issue, except maybe in the higher terrain where
there is still some snow. Winds will pick up late Sunday, and
some gusts of 40-45 mph may possible near the coast. lows only
dropping a few degrees.
On Monday, that system will shift N of the region with W-SW flow
behind it. Should clearing from W-E during the day, and it will
breezy, with wind gusts to 30 mph. Upper level low then settles
back in just our W, with cyclonic flow and cooler temps with
showers Tue-Wed at least.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR tonight into Saturday across interior
terminals. Along the coast guidance has suggested that marine
fog or stratus will develop over the waters and push towards the
coast overnight. Confidence is not all that high in this
occurring with a dry airmass in place and have only brought
IFR/LIFR to PSM. Clouds thicken and lower through Saturday with
SHRA developing SW to NE with MVFR restrictions possible late
Saturday and Saturday night.
Long Term...IFR to LIFR expected Sunday into Sunday night with
rain through the period. Wind gusts could approach 40 kts late
Sunday and Sunday night on the coast. Should see gradual
improvement to VFR from W-E on Monday. Period of MVFR in SHRA
are possible on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas stay below SCA thresholds tonight
into Saturday with increasing onshore flow late Saturday and
Saturday night. There is the possibility that marine fog could
develop over the waters tonight and push towards the coast.
Onshore flow strengthens late Saturday ahead of an area of low
pressure with SCAs likely needed Saturday night.
Long Term...E-SE flow increases Sunday and gale are likely late
Sunday and Sunday night with an outside chance of storm force
winds. Winds will switch to W on Monday, but will likely need
SCA into Monday evening.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Dumont/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cempa
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
924 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
- Partial clearing overnight
- Cool
Surface analysis late this evening shows low pressure over NW Ohio.
Due to this feature cyclonic flow remained across Central Indiana.
GOES16 shows the back shield of cloud cover progressing northeast,
about half way across Central Indiana. Clearing was found across IL
and SW Indiana as some high clouds were arriving from the southwest.
Cool northwest surface flow was in place across Central Indiana,
with temperatures in the 50s.
The low pressure system to the northwest is expected to continue to
progress northeast overnight, taking the associated cloud shield
with it. THus decreasing cloudiness will be expected overnight.
Forecast soundings across the area tonight continue to trend dry
overnight. Surface dew point depressions overnight are suggested to
fall to 3-5F. Thus only some isolated patchy fog appears possible
given the recent rains and lack of drying. Given some clearing and
light winds along with the drying, lows in the upper 30s and low 40s
will be on the mark.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Rest of Today and Tonight...
The surface low will continue to move off to the NE this evening.
Moisture has started to wrap around the low, causing it to occlude.
This has kept cloud cover over most of the region. However, dry air
with mid level NW flow should start to erode the cloud layer,
leading to clearing skies tonight. Modest CAA will induce height
rises in the low levels, further enforcing clearing low level clouds
in areas that are already beginning entrainment. On the otherhand,
high pressure can lead to PBL suppression, supporting narrow
saturated layers and a thin layer of cloud cover. Also of note will
be varying upper level clouds from an up stream convective system.
Current expectation is for moderate diurnal cooling overnight as
surface dew points drop, with coldest temperatures in areas that
experience clear conditions. Low lying patchy fog is also possible
in these areas. That looks to be most likely over western portions
of the state. Clear areas should see lows in the upper 30s with mid
40s for lows to the east.
Tomorrow...
A deeper upper level trough will approach from the west tomorrow,
with weak CVA just upstream of the axis. This should lead to weak
height falls over the region, supporting the eastward push of a
frontal boundary in the afternoon/evening. Surface dewpoints will
remain low throughout most of the day, but will increase as moisture
returns from a SW wind. The thermo profile supports convective
development along the boundary, but will greatly depend on the
amount of moisture return out ahead of it, as forcing will primarily
be surface based. If convection does occur, updraft strength should
be large enough for isolated thunder/lightning within scattered
showers. An organized cell cannot be ruled out, given a fairly high
amount of shear above 850mb. For now, no severe weather is expected,
but will be closely monitored.
Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow as surface flow changes to out
of the SW. Expect highs in the mid 60s for most of the area.
&&
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
* Damp and unsettled pattern through much of the long term
* Cool temperatures late weekend through the middle of next week
Guidance remains in strong agreement regarding the development of a
blocking pattern with a deep upper trough across the eastern CONUS
through the period. Broad upper level troughing over the central and
eastern CONUS will deepen over the weekend in response to an
amplifying ridge near the Rockies. An anomalously deep closed upper
level low is then expected to develop over the Great Lakes and
slowly push into the northeast states Wednesday. The slow
progression of this upper low will lead to damp, cool, and
unsettled weather for at least the first half of the period.
Dry air associated with high pressure over the central CONUS may
advect into the area midweek and limit precipitation chances. This
should allow for a quick push toward more seasonal temperatures
Thursday and Friday with a drier western flow and modest WAA. However,
this would likely be short-lived as guidance suggest more
unsettled weather late next week.
Temperatures will start near seasonal Saturday before dropping 10-
15F below normal Sunday through Tuesday. Increasing heights aloft
should allow temperatures to warm back up to near seasonal late next
week. Considerable cloud cover and winds overnight should limit any
frost potential, even with temperatures across the north likely
falling into the upper 30s. However, it cannot be ruled out
completely if any clearing occurs overnight next week and winds are
lighter than expected.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 649 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Impacts:
- Lingering MVFR Cigs are expected to improve to VFR.
- Fog possible late at LAF.
- Showers with VFR Cigs possible on Saturday afternoon.
Discussion:
The cloud shield with MVFR Cigs associated with low pressure
centered over NW Ohio was continuing to influence Indiana/s weather.
Radar showed that the bulk of precipitation has ended however the
back edge of cloud cover was found near the Indiana/Illinois state
line. This clearing feature was making steady progress northeast as
along with the departing area of low pressure. Thus will keep some
clouds across the TAF site for the first few hours of the period,
but trend toward some gradual clearing overnight. Due to recent rain
and lingering lower level moisture, this could lead to some MVFR fog
at LAF. For now a TEMPO group has been included to account for this.
On Saturday, broad cyclonic flow remains across the region as the
models suggest another wave within the flow dropping from Ontario
across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. As this happens,
the HRRR suggests a line of shower development late in the afternoon
pinwheeling around the broader reigning cyclonic circulation aloft.
Thus have included a period of VCSH for now as this feature passes.
Still through all of this Cigs should remain VFR.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...Puma
Short Term...Updike
Long Term...Updike/Melo
Aviation...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
946 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 946 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Low clouds have mostly cleared out across central KY as a small area
of sfc high pressure has moved over south-central KY and Middle TN.
Winds have also diminished considerably since before sunset.
Conditions appear favorable for at least patchy to areas of fog to
develop overnight. Thickening mid and high clouds closer to sunrise
will help limit the dense fog threat. But certainly cannot rule out
some patchy dense fog tonight, especially across south-central KY.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Interesting weather pattern shaping up tonight into tomorrow across
the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. A series of upper-level lows
and disturbances will impact the area as the current sfc low over
southern OH/northeast KY meanders and retrogrades back to the NNW
keeping mostly cloudy skies and brings another chance for showers
with a slight chance of isolated thunder for the start of the
weekend. The first shortwave trough will continue to lift northeast
through Ohio towards Lake Erie before getting absorbed back into the
main flow by tomorrow morning. A second positive tilted trough
stretching from northern MN to the TX Panhandle will slowly move
eastward and produce two cutoff lows north and south by tomorrow
morning. The main northern low will form over MN while the southern
low develops over east TX and works across the Gulf Coast at the
base of the main upper trough.
Current visible satellite and water vapor show clearing skies and
drier air filtering in behind the departing trough and slow moving
sfc low over Ohio. This will help to break up the clouds and provide
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies as we go overnight. If we see
enough clearing there could be some patchy fog develop, and this
idea has support from some of the hi-res models like the
HRRR/NAM3K/NBM to give it a little more confidence. Lows will be in
the mid to low 40s.
Clouds are expected to increase by morning across the area as a sfc
low forms along with the southern cutoff low over the Gulf Coast and
the main northern low drops southward over the Upper Midwest. The
main challenge with tomorrow`s forecast is rain chances during the
afternoon. As the southern tandem of upper and sfc low work eastward
the northern upper-low and retrograding sfc low help to swing a cold
front across the Ohio Valley and over central KY/southern IN by late
afternoon/early evening. The question will be how much moisture and
good upper support does the southern system take possibly inhibiting
the development of showers and isolated rumbles of thunder. There
are some difference in the CAMS with the NAM showing a much drier
solution while the HRRR and some of the other hi-res models are a
little more aggressive. Decided to use NBM for PoPs tomorrow as I
felt it was a nice blend of the two solutions going with chance (30-
50 percent) PoPs tomorrow afternoon as the front approaches. Highs
should be able to get into the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow
afternoon.
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Saturday Night - Monday Night...
A deep closed low will wobble over the Great Lakes through the end
of the weekend and into early next week, with expansive coverage
down into our area as well. This is typically a cooler, more cloudy,
and occasionally wet type of pattern and this continues to be
reflected in the ongoing sensible weather forecast.
A vort lobe embedded in the parent trough will be rotating through
the region Saturday night with some isolated to scattered lingering
showers still possible. Chances for continued light showers will
then continue into Sunday as another vort lobe rotates through.
Overall, the best chances for showers look to be across the northern
and eastern portions of the CWA each period, but can`t rule out some
light precipitation anywhere during this time.
The upper low loses a little influence by Monday as it steadily
drifts eastward, however will still keep some low chances for a
measurable shower across our far north and east CWA. This will be a
cooler stretch of weather with temperatures well below normal for
this time of year. Highs on Sunday only reach the upper 50s and low
60s. Monday should be the coolest day of the forecast period, with
highs only peaking in the low to mid 50s for most. Southern KY
should still reach the low 60s a bit farther displaced from the
influence of the upper low. Looks a bit too mild for overnight
frost, but Monday morning lows are expected to be in the upper 30s
to lower 40s.
Tuesday - Wednesday...
Still can`t rule out a light shower across our NE CWA by Tuesday,
but overall this will be a transition day as the pesky upper low
really loses influence, and dry NW flow aloft dominates our upper
pattern. Surface high pressure also begins to get more established
over the CWA through mid week. As a result, an overall drier and
trending milder stretch of weather is expected. Highs are back in
the low to mid 60s by Tuesday, and mostly in the the 65 to 70 degree
range by Wednesday. Chilly nights will still be the rule with lows
bottoming out in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Wednesday Night - Friday...
Lower confidence by Thursday into Friday as models diverge on
solutions with respect to the upper pattern. Temps will be more
solidly into the low 70s by this time with chances for showers and
thunderstorms either day based on ensemble means.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Low clouds continue to gradually scour out from SW to NE, so LEX
will hold on to a BKN ceiling longer this evening. However, VFR
conditions are likely through 06z.
Diminishing winds overnight, particularly over the southern half of
KY, will likely allow areas of fog to develop (given the clearing
trend ongoing). Have included a brief period of IFR fog at BWG where
confidence is highest in fog development, but thickening mid-level
clouds early Saturday should limit IFR/LIFR coverage and duration.
Winds will increase out of the SW on Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Scattered showers will be possible in the
afternoon and evening.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...EBW
Short Term...BTN
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...EBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
828 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple areas of low pressure with fronts draped between them
make for a dynamic forecast into the weekend. Another round of
rain and tstorms slated for Eastern NC this evening into
tonight. High pressure will briefly build into the area on
Saturday bringing quieter conditions to the region before
another strong storm system moves up the East Coast Sunday into
Monday. Drier and cooler weather is then expected through early
next week as high pressure builds into the Eastern CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Friday...Today`s second round of convection has
started to pop up over the coastal plain with some stronger
storms moving into our far NW counties. RAP analysis shows
1000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the FA with highest values
concentrated south of HWY70. With favorable SBCAPE values and
sufficient deep-layer shear (40 kts), the possibility for a few
strong isolated thunderstorms remains for the next few hours.
Confidence for areas of patchy fog has increased. After the
showers and thunderstorms move out after midnight, the potential
for fog development will start in our northern zones and grow
southward through the early morning hours. After sunrise, the
fog should start to dissipate from south to north, but could
hang on for a few hours after sunrise for far inland zones and
the NOBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 1600 Friday...Low pressure will shift off the coast
early Saturday morning, with subsidence and drying aloft developing
behind it for Saturday. As a result mostly dry conditions are
expected, and with low level thicknesses fairly high, afternoon
temperatures should climb into the low 80s across most of the
area, mid-upper 70s immediate coast where a seabreeze
circulation developing late afternoon will provide some relief.
With that said, have begun the process of increasing PoPs in
the afternoon. This is due to an area of greater moisture
convergence between the weak cold front draped over the FA
around HWY17 and the afternoon seabreeze. HiRes models have
begun resolving some light showers in this area but with little
upper level support, any showers that could develop are expected
to be shallow and light so have kept PoPs just shy of SChC for
now.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM Fri...Another strong low pressure system moves up
the Eastern Seaboard Sunday and into Monday bringing the threat
of more heavy rain and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier high
pressure then builds in early through mid next week with much
quieter conditions expected.
Late Weekend...By early Sunday a potent and deep upper level
trough will spawn low pressure development across the Deep
South. This low will then move quickly up the Eastern Seaboard
later Sunday, and is likely to deepen rapidly as it moves across
NC. This will bring another period of widespread heavy rain and
thunderstorms, as well as strong winds. A potentially
significant severe threat could develop if instability is
sufficient and the current track of the low, just inland of the
forecast area, holds.
Monday through Friday...Behind the strong low pressure system
and cold front, breezy conditions are expected early next week
as cooler and drier high pressure moves in from the west while a
large occluded low sits over the SE Canada. Some fire weather
concerns are possible as afternoon RHs dip below 30 percent and
wind gusts reach 25-30 mph.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Friday night/...
As of 8 PM Friday...All TAF sites are currently sitting at VFR
but conditions are expected to deteriorate with the development
of fog after midnight once the showers and thunderstorms have
moved toward the coast. PGV will likely drop to MVFR VIS shortly
aftermidnight with EWN and ISO following suit within a couple of
hours. Fog could be dense enough to drop visibilites down to
IFR-LIFR conditions (1-2 SM) around sunrise. Visibilities will
quickly increase as the fog burns off but sub-VFR cigs could
hang around for a few hours for ISO and PGV. OAJ should
experience farily short-lived impacts from the fog with only a
brief drop to MVFR VIS.
LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 400 PM
Fri...VFR conditions return Saturday morning, though this will
be short lived as another low pressure system moving through the
area on Sunday has the potential to bring another extended
period of sub-VFR conditions into Monday morning. VFR conditions
are expected to develop late Mon and continue on Tue as high
pressure builds over the area.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday night/...
As of 1615 Friday...The warm front has lifted through most of the
area, currently located over Nern Sounds and Coastal Waters with
a new low pressure circulation spinning up along the front SE of
Cape Lookout continuing to bring rather gusty S-SWerly winds to
our coastal waters. Forecast guidance is in general consensus
with widespread 15-20G25KT over coastal waters this afternoon
into this evening, subsiding to ~10-15G20kt tonight. Rain and
tstorm activity has ceased for the afternoon but another round
of showers and storms is expected late this evening and into
tonight. Seas persist around 6-10 feet through the rest of
Friday keeping all coastal waters well into SCA criteria
through the period. Seas subside briefly overnight becoming
5-6ft around sunrise Saturday
LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 240 AM Fri...Winds briefly diminish Sat to SW 10-15 kt
then, a strong area of low pressure will lift through the
coastal waters with strong southerly flow developing at 20-30
kts with a potential for Gale Force winds. Winds will shift to
the west Monday and Tuesday diminishing slightly to 15-25 kt.
Hazardous seas are expected for most of the long term with seas
briefly subsiding to 3-5 ft Sat then building to 7-11 ft Sunday
into Monday morning. Seas subside but remain elevated AOA 6 ft
Mon afternoon into Tue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 400 PM Fri... No significant changes to the forecast
thinking as increased fire danger remains possible Monday
through Wednesday. Behind a strong low pressure system Monday
morning, cooler and drier high pressure will move into the area
through most of next week. While this occurs, a large and
occluded low pressure system will sit over SE Canada, and keep a
strong pressure gradient in tact across the Carolinas for
several days.
RH values will drop to at least 30%-35% each afternoon, while
winds remain strong at 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. Deep
mixing may promote even stronger wind gusts at times.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
204.
Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/OJC
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...JME/SGK
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...JME/CEB
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Key Messages:
- Frost Advisory tonight for portions of eastern Nebraska.
- Windy this weekend with very high rangeland fire danger,
especially over northeast Nebraska.
- Dry and warming conditions through the middle of next week,
resulting in continued fire-weather concerns.
Tonight:
Widely scattered light showers ongoing as of early afternoon are
expected to diminish this evening with skies clearing from
northwest to southeast tonight. Gusty north-northwest winds will
also diminish this evening with overnight with lows falling into
the 30s. The best frost potential will be over northeast NE into
portions of southeast NE, and the frost advisory has been expanded
to include Knox, Cedar, Wayne, and Cuming counties.
This Weekend:
An amplifying midlevel trough over the upper-MS Valley is forecast
to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone over the Great Lakes with strong
north-northwest surface winds developing on the western periphery
of the system over the mid-MO Valley. An embedded shortwave
trough and associated midlevel jet streak are forecast to dive
south through the area Saturday with the potential for some light
rain over portions southwest IA. Over eastern NE, comparatively
warmer temperatures (i.e., highs in the mid 60s to low 70s) will
combine with minimum RH values of 25 to 30 percent, and the strong
north-northwest winds with gusts of 35 to 40 mph to create very
high rangeland fire danger over over northeast NE. We will be
monitoring forecast conditions in the Albion, Norfolk, and Neligh
vicinities for the potential need for a Red Flag Warning Saturday
afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler Sunday (i.e., highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s), but continued strong north-northwest winds with gusts
up to 35 to 45 mph and minimum RH of 25 to 30 percent will again
result in very high rangeland fire danger over northeast NE into
portions of southeast NE.
Next Week:
A midlevel blocking pattern (characterized by lows along the West
Coast and over the Great Lakes, and an amplified ridge over the
Rockies) early in the week is forecast to break down by about
Thursday with growing model spread thereafter. Daytime
temperatures in the 60s Monday and Tuesday are forecast to warm
into the 70s and perhaps low 80s by Wednesday with readings
hovering in the 70s through Friday. Dry conditions are forecast
through midweek with low PoPs Thursday and Friday. Due to the dry
conditions and warming temperatures, high to very high rangeland
fire danger is forecast through much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Widely scattered showers ongoing as of midday are expected to
decrease in areal coverage this afternoon with the KOFK and KOMA
sites being potentially affected for the next hour or two. MVFR
ceilings will clear from northwest to southeast this afternoon and
early evening with gusty north or northwest winds persisting
through the afternoon before diminishing this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Showers falling in the vicinity of LNK and OMA are quickly ending.
VFR conditions have built into all three TAF sites and should
remain in place over the next 24 hours. It`ll take a couple of
hours longer in SW Iowa.
With wet conditions, clearing skies, and decreasing winds, there
is some concern that radiational fog could develop overnight but
very little model support for this theory so have left it out of
the TAFs. HREF and HRRR show mean visibility slipping to about
8-9 miles... so it is not impossible. Will continue to monitor new
runs.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>033-042-043-050-065-078-088.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Nicolaisen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1046 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
The trough that is bringing showers to our area today continues to
swing across the south-central plains and towards the Gulf Coast
as a deepening northern-stream trough descends towards the Great
Lakes region. Rain is slow to move through the area, and therefore,
adjusted POPs this evening and overnight towards the HRRR mean. An
isolated thunderstorm may develop over Bryan and Atoka Counties
later this afternoon, though chances we will see any severe weather
has dropped considerably.
Clouds begin clearing over western counties tonight, central OK
early tomorrow morning, and then southeast parts of the CWA by
mid-day. Expect low temperatures in the mid to upper 30`s across
northern and western Oklahoma.
Other than the breezy N/NNW winds tomorrow, it should be a pleasant
day weather-wise with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s/70s.
Thompson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
The upper pattern remains highly amplified as the deepening trough
moves slowly over the Great Lakes region ahead of an approaching
ridge. Our area remains under northwest flow which pushes a few
reinforcing fronts into Oklahoma. This will keep high temperatures
in the 60s Sunday and Monday.
This ridge is forecast to move slowly across the plains, and a
shortwave embedded on the backside of the ridge brings shower/storm
chances to our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Flow aloft shifts
to the southwest on Thursday as the ridge passes and we become
influenced by the strong upper low forecast to dig over southern
California. A strong jet streak is prog`d to develop at the base of
the trough over the Baja Peninsula on Wednesday which prompts the
development of a shortwave that heads towards the plains. A dryline
develops over the TX panhandle or western Oklahoma, and this setup
brings a chance showers/storms (perhaps severe) on Thursday.
Thompson
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Rain and showers continue across portions of Oklahoma as they
gradually shift south and east. Near the showers, As showers exit
the region, ceilings will gradually improve, until the region has
VFR ceilings overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will remain
northerly and gusty through Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 43 68 46 69 / 70 0 0 0
Hobart OK 38 73 44 73 / 50 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 43 72 47 77 / 50 0 0 0
Gage OK 35 73 41 70 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 40 70 41 68 / 70 0 0 0
Durant OK 48 69 48 74 / 70 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...50