Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/28/23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wakefield VA

943 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches from the southwest this evening and
tracks across the region late tonight into Friday. Another low
pressure system will impact the region on Sunday. Cooler and
drier conditions prevail early next week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 930 PM EDT Thursday...

No major changes to the going forecast. Rain has spread into
the southern Piedmont this evening and is expected to rapidly
expand NE through the night due to strong isentropic lift
associated with the 850mb warm front. Expect some locally
heavier rainfall especially from central VA to the coast later
tonight due to some enhanced frontogenetical forcing. This
heavier rainfall will move northeast through the morning hours.
In addition, a slight chance of thunder was added across NE NC
late tonight as the latest HRRR shows about 200 j/kg MUCAPE in
this area. Otherwise, just tweaked temperatures upward slightly
tonight in line with latest guidance.

As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...

A stationary frontal boundary was situated near the NC OBX this
afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level wave was over the Ozarks
with an attendant surface low over the central Gulf coast. High
pressure (1025mb) was centered over southern New England. For
our area, this resulted in some breaks in the clouds and mild
temperatures for locations along and north of the VA Hwy 460
corridor and over on the Eastern Shore. Farther south, close to
the coastal front, clouds were more plentiful (mostly cloudy to
overcast) with some light rain noted along and just south of the
VA/NC and points south.

Through tonight, upper level low pressure tracks NE into the Ohio
Valley with an associated shortwave trough/mid-level front
lifting through Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic by 12z
Friday. Will have PoPs increasing from SW to NE overnight,
starting with likely PoPs in the Piedmont by 03-06z and likely
PoPs reaching the Eastern Shore prior to 12z Fri with
categorical 80-100% PoPs west of the Ches Bay. The heaviest rain
will remain confined to the Piedmont 0.50-1" through 12z Fri.
Lows tonight ranging from the lower 50s NW to around 60F SE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

A widespread, soaking rain is expected across the entire area
Friday, especially during the morning and afternoon hours. This will
be in association with a warm front that will be lifting N across
the Carolinas overnight Thursday. The warm front will likely stall
just S of the area for most of the day Friday. Rain will likely
begin by ~4z across our SW counties and by ~12z across our NE
counties (including the Lower MD Eastern Shore). Given favorable
upper-level divergence and a nearly saturated atmospheric column,
embedded areas of heavier rain are certainly possible. PoPs are 90-
100% for all areas before they start gradually decreasing into the
evening as some top-down drying ensues. Depending on the degree of
clearing, some sfc-based instability could develop across inland
portions of southern VA and NE NC. Some of the CAMs depict this
scenario, indicating there could be a few scattered tstms in the
late aftn and evening hours. However, the exact details (coverage,
timing, intensity) still remain quite uncertain. Due to this
uncertainty, SPC has kept the marginal severe risk just to our S per
earlier coordination. Rainfall totals Fri-Fri night are in the 1-2"
range, with locally higher amounts possible across central VA. The
HREF continues to indicate an elevated probability (30-50%) of an
inch of rain in 3 hrs in these areas, especially NW of RIC. WPC
maintains marginal ERO across the entire CWA. Could see some
localized ponding of water on roadways and other similar minor All sites remain VFR early this evening, however expect conditions
to deteriorate overnight as a warm front over the Carolinas moves
north. This will allow rain to spread across the region from
southwest to northeast overnight, along with lowering CIGS/VSBYS.
Expect all sites to lower to IFR overnight into early Fri morning
(RIC by 08z, PHF and ECG between 08z-10z, ORF by 11z and SBY between
12 and 15z). Expect IFR conditions through the day on Friday as well
as steady rain, although it is possible that the rain will diminish
some in the afternoon, especially at RIC and ECG. ECG may also see
slightly improving conditions late in the forecast period if the
warm front can move north.

Expect gusty east winds on Friday, especially closer to the coast
with gusts as high as 25kt. In addition, cannot completely rule out
a thunderstorm at ECG Friday afternoon/early evening.

Outlook...Although the rain is expected to diminish Friday night,
expect IFR CIGs again Fri night as well as some fog inland due to
plenty of low level moisture. Finally some improvement on Saturday
before another low pressure moves into the area bringing more rain
and deteriorating conditions. flooding in urban areas. Highs
will be warmest closest to the warm front across southern VA and
NE NC (in the upper 60s-low 70s). Elsewhere, it will generally
stay in the low 60s. At the coast, onshore flow will also likely
keep temps in the low 60s. Speaking of onshore flow, winds are
likely to become breezy (out of E/ESE) in the late morning and
early afternoon Friday adjacent to the Bay and ocean as the
pressure gradient locally tightens INVOF the warm front. Lows
Fri night 55-60.

Saturday continues to look mainly dry outside of some lingering
showers early in the day across the Northern Neck and areas to the
NE. This is in response to developing SW flow with shortwave ridging
just offshore. Some lingering low clouds will likely persist over
our NE counties, keeping temps a little cooler there. A very
isolated shower is also possible in the aftn but will keep PoPs in
the silent range for now. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 S with
low-mid 70s across the N.

The model guidance has come into better temporal agreement regarding
the precip event for Sunday. However, there still remains quite a
bit of uncertainty. In terms of the general synoptic pattern, a
southern stream shortwave will induce sfc low formation across the
Deep South late Saturday night with a widespread precip shield
expected to move N/NE towards our area by midday Sunday. A cold
front then crosses the area by Sunday night/early Monday morning.
The exact track of the sfc low will determine high temps during the
afternoon, including the potential for any instability development
in the warm sector. For now, highs look to be in the upper 60s to
mid 70s, highest S and SE. Also have categorical PoPs (80%) for most
areas into evening, before precip diminishes for S to N and is
offshore or NE of the area by Monday morning. In terms of QPF for
Sunday, a widespread 0.5-1" looks likely, with higher amounts again
possible. Given antecedent dry conditions, this rainfall (on top of
Friday`s rain) will certainty be beneficial.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

Cold front crosses the area Sunday night with a decent shot of CAA
expected (especially across the W where dew points drop off
quicker). Lows Sun night/Mon morning in the 40s W to 50s E. The
winds turn W behind the front with some downsloping flow in the
afternoon likely to keep highs on the milder side for Monday. Expect
clearing behind the front with only a modest increase in high clouds
by the afternoon. Highs in upper 60s to around 70. Overnight lows in
the 40s (except in the lower 50s at the coast).

The upper-level pattern through the middle of next week
will be dominated by a large upper low N of the Great Lakes with
below normal 500 mb heights over the eastern US. The upper low will
gradually shift SE as a couple embedded shortwaves pass quickly
through the area. This will likely keep persistent mid-high level
clouds over our northern counties. Given dry lower and mid levels,
expecting most dry conditions with little in the way of precip.
Temperatures look to remain near to slightly below normal Tuesday
and beyond, with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and
50s.

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All sites remain VFR early this evening, however expect conditions
to deteriorate overnight as a warm front over the Carolinas moves
north. This will allow rain to spread across the region from
southwest to northeast overnight, along with lowering CIGS/VSBYS.
Expect all sites to lower to IFR overnight into early Fri morning
(RIC by 08z, PHF and ECG between 08z-10z, ORF by 11z and SBY between
12 and 15z). Expect IFR conditions through the day on Friday as well
as steady rain, although it is possible that the rain will diminish
some in the afternoon, especially at RIC and ECG. ECG may also see
slightly improving conditions late in the forecast period if the
warm front can move north.

Expect gusty east winds on Friday, especially closer to the coast
with gusts as high as 25kt. In addition, cannot completely rule out
a thunderstorm at ECG Friday afternoon/early evening.

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

This afternoon, high pressure is located off the southern New
England coast, ridging over local waters, while a stationary
boundary is located over OBX. Winds are 5-10kt out of the SE. Seas
are 2-3ft and waves are 1ft or less. Overnight and through tomorrow,
an area of low pressure will form along a boundary well to the S and
travel NE along the coast. Ahead of the low and the boundary, the
pressure gradient will tighten and SE-ESE winds will increase. Winds
will steadily increase overnight, reaching ~20kt sustained by Friday
morning. By Friday afternoon, winds will be 25-30kt with gusts up to
40kt across the coastal waters north of Cape Charles light and in
the middle/upper Bay. Elsewhere, winds will be ~20kt with gusts up
to 30kt. Confidence of reaching gale thresholds in the northern
coastal zones and middle/upper bay has increased due to high-res
models and local wind probabilities trending toward stronger winds.
Thus, have hoisted Gale Warnings for the coastal waters north of
Cape Charles light and the Ches Bay north of New Point Comfort
starting at 4am Friday morning. Elsewhere, SCAs are in effect,
also starting at 4am. During this time, seas will build to
7-9ft across the north and 5-7ft across the south. Waves will be
3-5ft in the Bay and 2-3ft elsewhere.

Winds will quickly diminish late Friday night to 10-15kt from south
to north as the low pulls away. Winds look to remain sub-SCA through
Saturday/Saturday night, but seas will likely remain at or above 5ft
through the weekend. A frontal system will impact the region late in
the weekend, bringing another opportunity for elevated winds.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 620 AM EDT Thursday...

Nuisance to minor coastal flooding will be possible from late
Fri through Sat, mainly across the middle and upper portions of
the Ches Bay and nrn coastal waters, due to strong ESE winds
from a storm system eventually increasing water levels.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-
631-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633-
635>638.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ656-658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MRD
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

1158 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

.AVIATION...

A surface ridge axis will persist over Southeast Michigan tonight
resulting in quiet VFR conditions with an east wind trajectory. A
shortwave will lift out ahead of a deep central NOAM upper level and
impact Southeast Michigan beginning during the mid morning hours.
Forcing will begin as very efficient isentropic lift before
transitioning into organized deep deformation late Friday. Model
soundings show low level saturation leading to LIFR conditions at
the southern Taf sites after 14Z. Conditions are expected to be MVFR
for a better part of the day at KFNT and KMBS. Compact pressure
gradient tied to the low pressure system is expected to result in
strengthening easterly Friday afternoon of 15 to 25 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet after 12z Friday.

* Low for thunder Friday afternoon and evening.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

DISCUSSION...

A mid level wave over Montana will slide south to New Mexico by
Friday, driving the low to mid level wave now over eastern Oklahoma
northeastward across Se Mi. The 12Z model suite indicate this wave
arriving as a quasi closed low-mid level circulation. Cloud cover
will be on the increase through the night in advance of this system,
which will limit nocturnal cooling potential thus inhibiting any
frost/freeze concerns.

A surge of high low-mid level theta e air (with 925mb dewpoints up
to +10C) will be transported from northern Ohio into Se Mi between
09Z and 15Z Friday morning, marking the onset of rain across the
forecast area. This will occur along the lead edge of the mid level
deformation axis, which is expected to slowly traverse Se Mi during
the day Friday and linger at least across the thumb and eastern
portions of the area well into Friday evening. Model solutions all
show a rather robust response within the mid level trowal axis.
There is however some disagreement with respect to placement and
persistence of this deformation. The NAM and RAP suggest a more
prolonged region of forcing extending from Monroe up through Detroit
to Port Huron; solutions which give the far eastern portions of the
area much higher rain totals (over a half inch). The Canadian and
ECMWF show a broader footprint in the ascent across the forecast
area, although still have the strongest forcing across the far east.
Based on recent trends in probabilistic guidance and the 12Z model
suite, a longer duration of rain with higher rain totals will be
warranted across the east, with pops and QPF tapering off toward the
west.

A series of mid level short wave features will move from central
Canada into the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes by Saturday.
Phasing of these features as well as the phasing of the northern
stream jet with a jet streak over the srn Ohio Valley will lead to a
rapid deepening of the northern stream trough and eventual
development into a large deep upper low centered over the Great
Lakes region by Sunday. There will be a period of subsidence and
drying over Se Mi Sat morning into mid-late Saturday afternoon in
the wake of the Friday system. This will also for some daytime
recovery, supporting highs into the 60s. The lead edge of the mid
level vorticity axis will then force a brief but strong period of
ascent late Sat aftn/evng behind a surface cold front. This will
result in a period of showers. Even with daytime recovery, model
solutions suggest minimal instability along the front (a couple
hundred J/kg CAPE ML cape at best), supporting just a chance of
thunderstorms.

The large upper low and associated mid level cold pool is forecast
to linger over the Great Lakes region thru Wednesday. This will
ensure cool and showery conditions for several days. The coolest
airmass will be overhead Monday and Tuesday. While model soundings
are suggestive of mainly rain showers, with 850mb temps forecast to
dip down to -3 to -5C, can not rule out some wet snow mixed in at
times.

MARINE...

Generally dry and calm marine conditions persist for the Great Lakes
through the evening, aside from a band of rain showers that remains
in tact over portions of Lake Huron. CONUS-wide perspective reveals
a pair of low pressure systems tracking toward the Great Lakes, with
the southern stream wave winning out and lifting extensive moisture
and widespread rain overhead by mid morning Friday. During this
timeframe winds back more easterly, with onshore flow elevating wave
heights and gusts to Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Will hold off
on headline issuance until the evening as there is still uncertainty
as to the track of the low and duration of onshore flow. Winds and
waves diminish through Saturday under overall stable conditions,
although a rainy weekend is in store as a stalled upper low
circulates overhead.

HYDROLOGY...

A compact upper low and associated surface low pressure will track
across the region Friday and Friday night. This system will bring
rain to most of the area. While most of the rain will be light, some
intervals of moderate rain are possible. Total rainfall amounts are
forecast to range from a tenth near Midland to six to seven tenths
of an inch along a line from Detroit to Port Huron. The higher end
of the probabilistic guidance (90th percentile) have these eastern
locations receiving just over an inch.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ444.

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

955 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Significant update was done to greatly reduce rainfall in west
central MN. Sfc low is in southeast SD and heavier rain area that
may form overnight looks to be to our east/south. Thus anticipate
just lighter rain areas overnight with HRRR, 02z NBM and 00z NAM
guidance showing totals up to 0.10 inch Elbow Lake to Wadena,
instead of the near 1 inch values from earlier.

UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Sfc low is in eastern South Dakota in the vicinity of Huron. It is
moving ESE. Main 500 mb short wave is over western ND/NW SD and
moving east. Main area of heavier rain showers and a few t-storms
earlier is moving thru far south central ND and north central SD
moving east. Also rain area in east central MN. Short term models
indicate development of additional rain showers this evening in
west central MN, but HRRR shows rain devlopment a bit farther
south and looking at placement of sfc low I wonder if that will
indeed be the case.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Key Messages

-Light rain will continue tonight into Friday morning

-Winds may get a little breezy west of the Red River Valley
tonight

As of nearly 3 pm, the surface low had dropped into north central
South Dakota. Temperatures had risen to the low 60s along the
North and South Dakota border from south of Bismarck to the
Wahpeton-Breckenridge area. The SPC meso page shows some weak SB
and MLCAPE developing in this area and over toward Aberdeen SD.
The latest regional radar shows a pretty steady area of light rain
moving into the Grand Forks area right now. However, there is
another area of showers/thunder around the northern edge of the
surface low (around and south of Bismarck right now). Water vapor
imagery shows some lightning activity out in this area. CAMs are
showing possibly a further south track to this surface low,
dropping any convection down into the Aberdeen area rather than
our far southern FA late this afternoon/early evening. So doubting
far southeast ND will see any thunder. However, think the trend
this evening will be for the northern (highway 2) echoes to
weaken as more activity develops along/south of the I-94 corridor.
Wind speeds will also pick up as the low drops into SD, and this
further southward track would mean less wind for this FA. Even so,
winds may stay up tonight, just not be quite as gusty as earlier
thought. The next round of light rain looks to arrive late Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Key Messages

-The final round of light precipitation will continue through
the day Saturday, before tapering off Saturday evening

-A return to at least normal temperatures still appears likely by
mid next week

For Saturday into Saturday night, steep northwest flow will continue
across the Northern Plains as another 500mb low drops into the Great
Lakes. One more round of light precipitation that begins in the
short term portion of the forecast Friday night, is expected to
continue through the FA into possibly Saturday evening. This should
not bring large rainfall totals either, with it currently appearing
to be about a 10 percent chance for amounts greater than 0.25
inches. With the expected cloud cover and rain, temperatures will
stay on the cooler side.

Saturday through Sunday night also looks like a pretty windy period,
with north winds. Rather than go with straight NBM guidance, blended
in some CONSALL guidance to get slightly lower values. At this
point, Saturday afternoon looks close to Wind Advisory criteria west
of the Red River Valley. Wind gusts may drop off Saturday night, but
sustained winds should not. Then, Sunday looks even windier, mainly
within the Red River Valley. The current wind forecast would result
in a Wind Advisory for portions of the area, with speeds slowly
decreasing again Sunday evening.

Once the precipitation and wind shift east of the FA, the question
of a warming trend returns. Monday still looks like a cool day, with
Tuesday showing more of an upward trend. Normal highs for late April
are getting into the 60 degree range. Highs Wednesday and Thursday
may actually rise to around 60 or slightly above. Not seeing any
chances for precipitation throughout the Monday through Thursday
time period.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Short term models once again I think are a bit too agressive with
lowering ceilings over the area, esp NE ND where drier air is
moving in from the north. So stuck with VFR ceilings tonight
becoming MVFR overnight/Fri AM in NE ND/far NW MN. SE ND into WC
MN VFR may have a better chance for MVFR cigs or isold IFR cigs
overnight. Winds north-northeast, windier in SE ND/WC MN.

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

River flooding continues to diminish in the southern Red River
Basin, and reach near crests in the northern Basin. Wahpeton has
decreased below flood stage, and Fargo is on the way down. East
Grand Forks already crested and is headed down. Areas toward Oslo
have flattened out and will begin to fall over the next several
days. Drayton and Pembina are still on the rise, with crests
expected soon. Tributaries on the MN side continue to fall, with
Hendrum the only remaining site in flooding. ND Tributaries are
falling in the south, with Abercrombie and West Fargo currently in
Minor. Harwood remains in Moderate, but is on the process of slowly
diminishing. Areas rising are on the Pembina River, but are looking
to remain just shy of minor flooding. Continued precipitation
chances today, with up to a quarter of an inch possible. Further
chances Friday evening into Saturday morning, with light amounts of
precipitation. Dry and quiet conditions move into the region end of
the weekend and into next week.

Overland flooding continues along the Red River north of Grand
Forks, affecting areas in Pembina and eastern Walsh county. This
will slowly drop over time as water soaks into the ground and the
Red River crests in the north.

This will be the last hydro discussion for the Spring 2023 flood
season.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Riddle
HYDROLOGY...Spender

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

505 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

This mid-afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis overlay
revealed quite the impressive shortwave trough diving south within
the broader longwave trough pattern. The mid tropospheric potential
vorticity anomaly was centered across central Montana early in the
afternoon with impressive downstream upward vertical motion ahead of
the storm moving into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. This
enhanced region of lift continued to draw closer to the tri-state
region, and afternoon Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB imagery showed
a growing boundary layer cumulus field across northeastern Colorado
into far northwest Kansas and adjacent far southwest Nebraska.

The HRRR model seems to have a pretty good handle on this storm
system, and there has been run-to-run continuity of surface-based
shower and thunderstorm development across the northwest half of the
the GLD CWA after 21Z. Boundary layer moisture was limited, however
500/700mb temperatures of -20/0C along with surface temperatures
warming to the lower 70s resulted in deep layer, steep lapse rates
and SBCAPE increasing to around 500 to 700 J/kg despite surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s degF. Thus, the greatest severe
weather risk will be damaging straight line winds with the deepest
convective plume late afternoon/early this evening. The threat of 60-
65 mph peak wind gusts has been messaged given this latest forecast
thinking. As the strongest forcing for ascent moves across the tri-
state region this evening, the HRRR suggests the leading axis of
convection may form a loosely organized multi-cell line cluster as a
modest cold pool develops.

It will be difficult to differentiate an initial convective cold
pool from the actual synoptic cold front itself, but there may be a
bit of a separation between the two meteorological features.
Regardless, the synoptic cold front will be pushing south quickly
later on tonight. By that time, the axis of greatest lift and
subsequent numerous showers will push south of our region down into
southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. North-northwest winds
behind the synoptic cold front will likely be 25 to 35 mph sustained
with gusts well in excess of 40 mph at times...through at least the
first half of the day Friday as northwest Kansas and surrounding
region remains in the fairly tight MSLP gradient as the upper level
cyclone continues to move south-southeast down into New Mexico and
the Texas Panhandle.

Back to the precipitation forecast, the official forecast will
reflect a precipitation type changeover to a wet snow before ending
over the higher elevation areas of the GLD forecast area
(western/southwestern half, particularly in vicinity of the Palmer
Divide), but any snow before ending will likely be fleeting with
essentially no accumulation expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Over the weekend, the northwest flow pattern on the longwave scale
will continue across much of the western Great Plains and adjacent
Rockies as a deep gyre becomes established across the Great Lakes
region. Another deep trough will develop along the West Coast early
next week with another deep upper low likely to develop out of the
trough out west. The hemispheric scale regime looks quite blocky
with the tri-state region in between these large gyres with very
little in the way of sensible weather to affect the region. This
will likely result in fairly light winds for the most part and
temperatures quite seasonable with the warmest air mass shunted well
to the south through at least Tuesday. The latest models suggest the
Great Lakes region and West Coast gyres dissolving with more
westerly momentum crossing the Rockies mid to late next week. Mid
next week and beyond, the forecast becomes far more uncertain in
terms of temperature forecasting and (severe?) convection.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2023

For KGLD, VFR skies through 05z Friday along with a chance for a
VCTS. After 05z, a drop to MVFR ceilings along with 6sm in light
rain showers. Winds northwest 15-30kts. Periodic gusts 40-50kts
are also possible.

For KMCK, VFR skies with light rain and VCTS through 06z Friday,
then VFR/MVFR ceilings, with light showers through 11z. Winds
northwest 10-20kts. Gusts to 40kts after 06z Friday. LLWS 00z-01z
Friday 300@55kts.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WFO DDC/Umscheid
LONG TERM...WFO DDC/Umscheid
AVIATION...JN

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

1112 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Our unsettled weather pattern of late will take a short
break on Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds over the
region. This will result in clearing skies and seasonably mild
temperatures. The high will move northeast of the area on Saturday
allowing our next area of low pressure to arrive late in the day.
Showers arrive Saturday afternoon over western areas and in the
evening over eastern areas. The showers will become a steady
rain late Sunday afternoon into Monday. Expect more rain showers
through much of next week.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
11pm Update...Fog is just now being reported at some observation
sites and have increased some of the coverage along the coast
and interior ME. A similar trend may be needed for southern NH
tonight as guidance still indicates greater probability of vis
restrictions and lower clouds tonight. Otherwise, calm winds and
clear skies have allowed temps to rapidly decrease. Went with
10th percentile NBM temps and MOS guidance for remaining temp
trend.

7pm Update...Shower activity will continue to decrease into the
evening hours with a final line of light rain passing over the
coastal region. Updating rain chances and some temps this
evening were the primary changes, but will be keeping tabs on
any fog development overnight. This may occur first where MRMS
showed accumulation over the past 12 hrs (from Rockport, ME west
through much of the northern half of NH and into western ME).

425 PM Update... Convective showers have over performed and
drifted towards the Mid Coast of Maine. Have increased PoPs
along the coastal plain over the next couple of hours to account
for these trends.

Previously...

Latest RAP analysis shows that a few hundred J/kg of SB CAPE
has developed with filtered sunshine today. This has allowed for
convective showers to blossom within a surface trough draped
along the NH/ME border. Low freezing levels and steep mid level
lapse rates will continue to make graupel or pea sized hail
possible as there have already been reports of pea sized hail
with convective showers earlier today. Shower activity wanes
with the setting sun this evening followed by skies turning
mostly clear overnight. The recent wet weather in addition to
areas that receive rainfall today will aid in the formation of
radiational fog tonight as skies turn mostly clear. Have
followed the previous forecast package logic with patchy fog
along the coastal plain and across northern valleys with areas
of fog in sheltered locations across the interior. Lows tonight
will drop into the 30s areawide with favorable radiational
cooling spots dipping below the freezing mark.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over eastern Canada lurches into the Gulf
of Maine Friday while a narrow ridge axis builds over the
forecast area Friday afternoon. This will bring fair weather
with mostly sunny skies to start followed by increasing high
level clouds from SW to NE Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday
will climb into the 60s across much of the area while high
pressure moving into the Gulf of Maine will bring winds onshore
and thus cooler conditions along the coast.

Onshore flow will continue into Friday night with hi res
guidance bringing in marine stratus/fog into the coast late
Friday evening and spreading inland Friday night. All the while,
an area of low pressure to the southwest of New England will
continue to spread high and mid level clouds over the area. Lows
Friday night will range from the upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We head back into an active weather pattern for much of the long
term forecast as a large upper level low forms over the western
Great Lakes late Saturday and slowly drifts east, reaching eastern
New England mid next week. This will result in a prolonged period
of unsettled weather.

In the dallies, on Saturday High pressure retreats to the northeast
over the Canadian Maritimes. Surface low pressure underneath the
previously discussed upper level low over the western Great Lakes
moves slowly east. Another area of low pressure develops along the
Gulf of Mexico Coast. Moisture in the form of clouds and showers
will move northeast during the day on Saturday, expect most of the
shower threat to hold off until late in the day/evening and
primarily over NH. How quickly the showers move further east is a
question as there are signs that the departing high may hold ridging
over Maine Saturday night into Sunday thereby slowing the eastward
progress of the showers.

On Sunday the two lows will start to consolidate into one low just
west of the Delmarva Peninsula by late in the day. This will result
in the showers trying to push further east Sunday afternoon...again
how quickly this happens is still uncertain.

The low will move to the North Sunday night and weaken somewhat
as it gets captured underneath the upper level low. A period
steady rain likely arrive Sunday night into Monday.

As the low gets absorbed underneath the upper level low on Monday
expect the steady rain to taper to showers.

Tuesday through Thursday...we will be underneath the upper level
low. This will result in showers though the period. There is a
possibility of another steadier round of rain Tuesday Night into
Wednesday as the upper level lows energy passes directly overhead
with a surface low underneath the upper level low crossing the
area.

Rainfall amounts may be enough to result in minor flood issues over
area rivers and streams Sunday Night and Monday.

Temperatures will be below normal Saturday and Sunday. If the rain
tapers off quick enough on Monday/Tuesday we may briefly approach
normal temperatures. As the upper low passes over head temperatures
will return to below normal values for the remainder of the extended
forecast period.

Models: The 00z global models when compared to the 12z NAM were
quicker in developing the steady steady rain on Sunday Afternoon.
The NAM holds the steady rain off until Sunday Night and has ridging
from the departing high holding on longer thus keeping drier air in
place for much of the weekend. Will need to see if this trend
continues in future model runs. 12z GFS is slightly slower than the
00z GFS with regard to the onset of the steady rain but is faster
than the NAM. For now will lean toward the global models...but
will be a little slower with the onset time of the
precipitation.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Patchy fog will develop tonight with the highest
confidence in flight restrictions at KCON, KAUG, and KLEB. VFR
prevails Friday with increasing high clouds late Friday.
Onshore flow could push marine stratus/fog into the coastal
plain Friday night and this could bring flight restrictions to
coastal terminals at KAUG.

Long Term...MVFR conditions Saturday with areas of IFR Saturday Night
as showers & drizzle and fog develop. IFR with areas of LIFR
possible Sunday Afternoon into Monday in rain...drizzle and
fog. Some improvement likely to develop during Monday as steady
rain tapers to showers.

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight
through Friday night. Patchy fog could develop over the waters
tonight and there is a signal for more widespread fog over the
waters Friday night as onshore flow strengthens.

Long Term...Wind and waves below SCA Saturday....building to SCA levels
Sunday and continuing on Monday as low pressure moving west of the
region increase winds and waves. Winds may approach gale force
Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Winds subside to below SCA
levels on Tuesday however waves will remain at SCA levels.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Lulofs

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

935 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

- Light Rain passing overnight
- Cloudy and becoming cooler

Surface analysis late this evening low pressure centered over the
Arkansas/Mississippi boarder. A warm front extended northeast across
Western KY to SE Indiana. Cool and dry easterly flow was in place
across Central Indiana. Radar shows an area of showers ahead of this
from pushing northeast into Central Indiana. However, dry dew points
within the lower levels, in the lower 30s, were hindering
precipitation reaching the ground. This should be overcome in the
next few hours.

Overnight, the low pressure system is expected to push northeast to
Central Indiana amid the SW flow aloft as shown within the water
vapor imagery. This should allow the precip to advance across
Central Indiana through the overnight hours. HRRR suggests this
precip shield should exit the area near 12Z and forecast soundings
at that time show some dry air arriving aloft. Thus will focus
highest pops from south to north over the next 6-8 hours, trending
toward low pops then. Given the expected clouds and rain, lows in
the lower 50s and upper 40s appear the mark.

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Tonight.

During the overnight hours tonight a broad upper level low pressure
system will track across Missouri into the Ohio Valley with periods
of rain expected. Strong isentropic lift arrives starting at 00Z
with the lowest pressure condensation deficits around 03Z in the
southern counties. This lines up well with the expectations for the
heaviest precipitation being between 00Z and 06Z. Model soundings
show little to no instability along with near moist adiabatic lapse
rates as soon as the atmosphere moistens.

As the surface low then moves into southwestern Indiana closer to
daybreak a TROWAL then develops to the northwest of the surface low
from Terre Haute to Kokomo with weak lift allowing rain to continue
into the daytime hours. The influx of moisture will also help
moderate temperatures through the overnight hours with lows around
50.

Friday.

The surface low will continue to slowly move into western Ohio into
the morning hours. The forcing aloft associated with the TROWAL
will weaken and then end by noon as drier air works in behind the
low. Winds will then shift from the northwest to west by the
evening. The northwest winds through much of the day will keep
temperatures cool again with highs only reaching into the upper 50s
to low 60s. The residual moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy
through much of the day with clearing arriving late in the day.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

* Damp and unsettled pattern through the long term

* Cool temperatures late weekend through the middle of next week

Guidance continues to advertise a blocky pattern developing as time
goes on, broadly characterized by deep and anomalous closed lows
over the Great Lakes into the northeastern CONUS and along the West
Coast, with a narrow, high-amplitude ridge in between roughly over
the Rockies throughout much of the long term period. This will
lead to fairly damp, cool, and raw weather through much of the
long term, particularly for the latter half of the weekend into
mid week next week, although temperature recovery toward the end
of the period will not be particularly robust, and the 8-14 day
outlook remains below normal across the area. This will obviously
stand in stark contrast to the very pleasant warm period
experienced earlier this month.

Friday evening looks primarily dry and cool as surface low pressure
pivots northeast into the Great Lakes and the column rapidly dries
from above. Cannot entirely rule out some lingering drizzle in the
evening, but the low level moisture shallows out fairly quickly, so
this would be minimal.

Through the weekend into early next week, the upper level low will
steadily consolidate and deepen, with impulses pivoting around the
larger low along with one or more accompanying secondary cold fronts
providing additional forcing for precipitation. Shower chances will
be in the forecast continuously from Saturday through Tuesday for at
least portions of the area, peaking diurnally in the afternoons when
the very modest available instability will be maximized.

Low thunder chances will be necessary on Saturday, mainly in the
afternoon and evening, per convective indices, but the remainder of
the time looks to be simply showers.

Temperature-wise, the long term will begin with temperatures
slightly below normal, although this will quickly change as sub-zero
850 mb temperatures make their way into the area late in the weekend
into early next, resulting in temperatures, max temps in particular,
as much as 10-15 degrees below normal. Diurnal ranges will be
limited many nights by cloud cover, which should minimize frost
threat, but will have to keep this in mind should any clearing
materialize.

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Impacts:

- VFR deteriorating to MVFR tonight and then IFR on Friday.
- Winds shift from east to northwest through the period.

Discussion:

An upper level low pressure system over MO will push across Central
Indiana through the period. Associated rain showers over southern
IL and western KY along with their MVFR conditions are expected
to advect across the TAF sites overnight, before departing the
area after 09Z-12Z. Surface winds will shift from the east to the
north as the low passes, eventually becoming NW by Friday
afternoon. Forecast soundings show best saturation and moisture
this evening. but deep moisture is lost in the wake of the low,
leaving just lower level saturation.

Thus after the best forcing departs tonight, just lingering IFR Cigs
are expected for much of Friday.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Update...Puma
Short Term...White
Long Term...Nield
Aviation...Puma

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Jackson KY

1110 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

The initial batch of showers are breaking up a bit, but some will
still be around through the night with thunder still a
possibility, as well. Have updated the forecast mainly to fine
tune the PoPs and Wx through the rest of the night per radar and
CAMs trends. Did also include the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a forthcoming freshening of the zones and
SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching the area from the
southwest and this has pushed a warm front north into eastern
Kentucky and along with it a large area of showers. These are
affecting all but the far northwest and southwest parts of the
area with steady, mainly light, rain under mostly cloudy
conditions. The rain is affecting the temperatures through the
area, as well, with readings in the mid 50s amid the showers to
the lower 60s in the north just ahead of the steadier returns.
Meanwhile, amid east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints
are generally in the low to mid 50s with some patchy fog around
with the showers at times. The current forecast is right on track
so have mainly added in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td
grids along with incorporating the CAMs trends into the PoPs and
Wx grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 443 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

Late this afternoon, a shortwave trough was approaching the mid MS
Valley while an upper level low was centered over Ontario. A
general area of troughing extended from Ontario to the Northern
Plains/Upper MS Valley and then southeast toward LA. An additional
upstream shortwave was dropping southeast across the Northern
Plains and Northern Rockies regions. At the surface, an area of
low pressure was tracking across AR and also nearing the MS Valley
region with an initial warm front lifting north across eastern KY
at this time and currently bisects the CWA with dewpoints in the
40s to the north and dewpoints mainly in the 50s to the south.
Areas of showers were lifting north from eastern TN into eastern
KY as of late afternoon with rain having reached the ground as far
north as a PBX to JKL line. Thus far, rainfall across the
southwest has been under a tenth of an inch.

Tonight, the shortwave trough currently nearing the mid MS Valley
into the Lower OH Valley and approach the Great Lakes tonight
while an the shortwave currently over the Northern Plains and
Northern Rockies is expected to dig south to the Central Rockies
and Plains. The initial shortwave trough will track into the
Great Lakes on Friday while a trough continues to develop in the
Central Conus. The shortwave in the Great Lakes is expected to
lift further north on Friday night and begin to merge with the
Central Conus trough while the digging shortwave trough will
continue southeast to the Southern Plains and likely begin to
close off as it moves toward the Ozarks to eastern TX regions. At
the sfc, the area of low pressure nearing the MS Valley region at
this time is expected to track northeast into the Lower OH Valley
tonight and pass northwest of eastern KY on Friday. The trailing
frontal zone will near eastern KY late tonight and cross the are
on Friday to Friday evening.

Increasing moisture with PW expected to rise from current 0.7 inch
to 1.2 inch range at present to in excess of 1 inch for all the
area for a period of time this evening into the overnight before
PW decreases overnight as the axis of the shortwave lifts to near
the OH River. The combination of this increase in moisture along
with lift from the passing shortwave will lead to periods of
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this evening and tonight,
though chances for showers will diminish from southwest to
northeast by the overnight hours as the shortwave passes and
moisture begins to decrease. Any thunderstorms that manage to
develop could produce briefly heavy rain and might lead to locally
heavy rain and an isolated high water issue or two in poor
drainage areas. However, relatively dry antecedent conditions lead
to this potential being low. Even the worst case 6 hour QPF max
from the 12Z HREF has generally no more than 1.5 to 2.5 inches as
a worse case scenario which again due to the antecedent
conditions would likely cause very few if any issues.

PW near an inch is expected to linger on Friday as the area of
low pressure passes to the northwest and the frontal zone moves
east. RAP and other model guidance suggests MLCAPE of around 1000
J/kg and MUCAPE perhaps in excess of 1500 J/kg around 19Z in the
eastern counties while effective shear in the 30 to 35KT range is
expected. This could result in a couple of stronger storms and
with low level lapse rates forecast to exceed 7C/km gusty winds
will be a possibility though the CAPE shear balance suggests a few
rotating updrafts or supercell structures will be possible. Some
small hail can not be ruled out as well along. This potential has
been added to the HWO.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will diminish on Friday
evening into Friday night behind the departing area of low
pressure and boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 405 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

Key Points:

* The period begins with a breif lull in precipitation as the area is
caught in between systems. Rain chances increase late Saturday and
into Saturday night as a cold front approaches the area.

* Temps start out near normal for the weekend before dropping off to
well below normal for the remainder of the period as CAA remains
in place in the low levels.

The long term period starts out with an amplified upper level
pattern across the CONUS. A pair of troughs will cover a portion of
the CONUS, one near the Midwest and into Canada and another southern
stream trough located across the southern Plains. Across the west,
an upper level ridge will be centered across southern California and
will extend into southwestern Canada. Progressing forward in time,
the southern stream trough will move east/northeast through the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic regions into early next week. The larger,
northern stream trough will slowly shift eastward while reinforcing
disturbances deepen an upper level low over the UP of MI and Lake
Superior with an ~524 dam low located over the region by mid Monday.
Models depict this trough slowly churning across the upper Great
Lakes and slowly toward the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night before
finally getting some pep in its step and moving toward the Northeast
by the end of the period.

As for sensible weather, the period will start out in a relative
precipitation lull as a disturbance exists the area to the northeast
and the next disturbances sit to the southwest and the northwest of
the area. Precipitation chances will increase late Saturday into
Saturday night with showers and storms possible. A cold front will
sweep through the area on Sunday and will begin to usher CAA into
the area along northwest flow. PoPs will also taper off into Sunday
evening as the atmosphere dries. Additional rain chances will come
Monday and Tuesday afternoon, with mainly diurnally driven showers
across the northern and eastern counties. Some gusty winds will be
possible Monday afternoon in a post frontal environment which will
be clear and will support decent mixing. Saturday will be the
warmest day of the period with low to mid 70s expected. Sunday will
be slightly cooler as precip and clouds increase over the area,highs
will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Highs Monday through Wednesday
will be on the chilly side with upper 50s to low 60s expected as CAA
remains in place at 850mb.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU APR 27 2023

Mainly VFR conditions were reported across eastern Kentucky at
issuance time. However clouds will continue to lower from
southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts deeper into
eastern Kentucky with its large area of showers. A thunderstorm
cannot be ruled tonight, though the best chances would be west of
I-75. The rain will further moisten the lower levels and MVFR,
with even some IFR in the higher elevations, should develop across
the southwest parts of the area, including SME and LOZ before
04Z. Then, as showers and a few thunderstorms lift north and east
with the warm front, MVFR conditions and even some times of IFR
are anticipated for most of the 04 to 12Z period. A general
improvement in ceilings from mainly IFR and MVFR into the MVFR
range and even some VFR in the southeast can be expected later in
the day, Friday. Winds will begin the period from the east to
southeast at less than 10 kts before becoming more southerly at 10
kts or less from 04 and 12Z as the low pressure area tracks into
the Ohio Valley. Winds are expected to then become southwest at 10
kts or less for most of the day, Friday.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BATZ
AVIATION...JP/GREIF

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Melbourne FL

1013 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Current...Another very active weather day, with ongoing strong to
severe activity still impacting east central FL. Current radar has
two main areas of thunderstorms; the initial cluster of activity
that began in the early afternoon hours has maintained intensity as
it moves offshore, with additional strong storms developing in the
wake of an already worked over environment. A secondary line of
storms has rapidly moved onshore from the Gulf of Mexico this
evening and is now approaching Daytona Beach to the Orlando metro,
with a history of wind gusts just below severe criteria. Over the
next few hours, severe thunderstorms at the immediate coast will
drift offshore, however the threat for frequent lightning, gusty
winds, heavy rain and brief tornadoes is still ongoing from Cape
Canaveral southward to Jupiter Inlet from this isolated single cell
convection. To the west, the broad multi-cellular line is abruptly
moving east at around 45 mph, although the threat for severe weather
is quickly diminishing. Latest HRRR erodes this secondary line prior
to it reaching the Atlantic coast, but based on the environment
supporting continued convection even after earlier storms, am not to
keen on this solution. The good news is that any areas that may have
missed out on rain this afternoon will likely see the opportunity
for at least a few hundredths prior to sunrise.

All severe weather hazards were observed today, with numerous
reports of funnel clouds (no confirmed tornado touchdowns), quarter
sized hail, wind gusts of 60 mph, and torrential downpours leading
to minor flooding of roadways.

Friday-Friday Night...Most of Friday morning is forecast to remain
dry, though considerable cloud cover will be present. The
temperature forecast may need further adjustment in future
forecasts, but for now, 60s and low 70s is how we expect to start
the morning. Persistent SSW flow and WAA will send deep moisture
northward across the peninsula. As weak mid level ridging pulls
east, mid level energy will provide support for more showers and
storms to develop over the east-central Gulf. This activity will
spread across central and southern Florida from late morning
through mid afternoon. Additional storms with greater severe
potential may form on the nose of this convection, notably south
of the Space Coast and along the Treasure Coast. A Marginal Risk
for severe storms is outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for
all of east central Florida on Friday. Conditions gradually
improve Friday evening with only light to moderate showers
remaining and temperatures falling through the 70s.

.MARINE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Tonight-Friday Night...Seas building this evening into tonight
from 3-4 ft up to 5 ft, mainly offshore from Sebastian Inlet
northward. Seas return to 3-4 ft, 5 ft well offshore on Friday. A
moderate SSE breeze continues this evening, decreasing some
nearshore tonight, while veering SSW after midnight. SW winds
12-17 kt Friday.

Rounds of showers and lightning storms will continue over the
local waters into tonight, and once again Friday afternoon. Some
storms will be capable of producing wind gusts greater than 35
knots, large hail, frequent cloud-to- water lightning, and locally
higher waves.

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Isolated to scattered convection from KMLB southward will move
offshore through 04Z with a secondary, broad line of strong
thunderstorms just on the edge of KDAB to KISM. MVFR/IFR cigs and
vis will impact nearly all terminals as this line moves to the
east/southeast through 06Z, gradually lifting initially at KLEE.
Winds gusts over 35 knots are likely especially for interior
terminals, with the line losing forcing as it reaches coastal
terminals south of KTIX. A brief lull in shower and storm activity
will last from 08Z-14Z before another early start to convection
arrives over the interior tomorrow morning.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 67 83 67 / 70 70 70 20
MCO 88 70 84 71 / 80 60 60 30
MLB 85 69 86 69 / 70 70 70 20
VRB 86 69 88 69 / 50 60 70 20
LEE 89 69 83 70 / 70 70 60 30
SFB 87 69 84 69 / 80 60 70 20
ORL 89 70 84 71 / 80 60 60 30
FPR 84 69 88 69 / 40 60 70 20

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Smith/Tollefsen/Haley/Sedlock