Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/26/23

National Weather Service Eureka CA
304 PM PDT Tue Apr 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS...Sunny and hot conditions will continue to build through midweek. A shallow marine layer along the coast with weakening onshore wind will most likely allow even coastal locations to warm near 70 midweek. && .DISCUSSION...Strong ridging has begun to build over the area, brining clear skies throughout the interior with highs in the mid 80s. A thin marine quickly eroded along the coast this morning under strong solar heating. Another weak and compressed marine layer is likely tonight with patchy coastal fog. Temperatures will continue to warm through mid week. Many areas could reach above 90 for the first time since October. NBM shows a 70 to 90% chance of southern Lake and Mendocino Counties in addition to the Trinity River Valley reaching 90 either Wednesday or Thursday. Around Ukiah, there is a 10 to 20% chance of temperatures breaking 95, which would easily surpass the stations daily temperature record. High pressure will also shunt stronger north winds offshore, decreasing the strength of sea breezes and flow of moisture inland. This will allow interior RH value to drop below 20 percent while also weakening the coastal marine layer. Midweek, any marine layer will be shallow under a compressed marine inversion and short lived each morning. At the same time, weakened sea breeze will allow even coastal locations to reach above 70, NBM shows an 80 90% chance of such temperatures around Humboldt Bay. There is currently no rain in the forecast. Essentially all cluster ensemble members show ridging continuing though slightly weakening into the weekend. There is wide uncertainty beyond that. Essentially all model ensemble members now show a cutoff low off the coast of California by early next week. No matter the scenario, this would bring cooler and more unstable weather to the area. 70% of model ensemble member show the system mostly dry while the other 30% show 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain. There is a slight chance of interior thunderstorms early next weak, though current model soundings resolve a strong mid level cap that would inhibit significant storm development. /JHW && .AVIATION...After some morning low clouds and patchy fog along the North Coast, skies have become mostly clear this afternoon. Expect some more moisture pooling along portions of the North Coast overnight tonight, with low clouds potentially extending inland up the Eel River Delta once again. The latest HRRR guidance suggests that the low clouds won`t be as expansive as last night, but have still included low ceilings and reduced visibilities around daybreak. Winds will be mostly light. As winds diminish overnight, coastal eddies and flow reversals will become more prevalent, and this may keep what clouds that do form a bit more persistent near and S of the eddies Wednesday morning. /SEC && .MARINE...Gusty northerly winds will gradually shift a bit farther offshore in the short term. Northerly winds will continue to weaken late this week, with near shore eddies and flow reversals becoming more likely. No changes were made to the ongoing advisories, and only minimal changes were made to wind and sea grids. /SEC && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT Thursday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
926 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Deeper convection mid evening has shifted east of the area with the weak mid level impulse. Isolated, low topped showers remain near the escarpment from Williamson County south into far northern Bexar County. Upstream convection is expected to weaken and dissipate before reaching the area, per latest HRRR runs, as convective inhibition re-strengthens over the area late this evening and overnight. Any addition precipitation overnight will likely remain shallow, beneath the cap, in the form of weak showers and possible patchy drizzle early in the morning. We have removed mention of severe storms for tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Early afternoon observations show a diffuse warm front extending northwest to southeast from the Altus, OK vicinity through the DFW Metroplex and ultimately just east of Houston. Temperatures range from the low 60s to upper 70s across the warm sector, depending on the amount of cloud coverage present locally. Persistent low overcast has held temperatures in the low to mid 60s across our Hill Country and I-35 zones, while breaks in the deck have allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70s in the Coastal Plains. A dryline is attempting to organize to our northwest, with 18Z surface obs showing the boundary sharpening from the Lower Trans Pecos northwest toward the New Mexico Front Range. The boundary will likely push east-northeast into portions of the Edwards Plateau as it continues to sharpen over the next several hours. GOES water vapor imagery shows a series of subtle perturbations across northern Mexico, the first of which is approaching the Rio Grande as it exits from Coahuila. The combination of the aforementioned surface boundaries and approaching mid-level impulse will support conditional chances of thunderstorms through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours today. Some of these storms could be severe. An upper low -- currently evident along the CO-UT border -- will shift southeast into the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon. Surface cyclogenesis will occur over the TX Panhandle as this occurs. The resultant surface low is forecast to track due east along/south of the Red River through Wednesday evening, pushing a weak cold front through the area moving into early Thursday morning. Additional storms are expected along the advancing front, with additional severe weather possible. This Afternoon & Evening: Thunderstorm development remains possible as the Coahuila impulse pushes across the region. Latest high-res guidance shows areas east of I-35 being favored for this activity, suggesting that the light WAA/moisture advection showers ongoing across the Coastal Plains will deepen into organized cells/clusters. Whether this occurs will be highly dependent on low level moistening/WAA and lift from the approaching impulse removing what remains of the cap. Latest soundings sampled at Austin Bergstrom and San Antonio Intl show a stout inversion in the 850-700 mb layer, with several hundred J/kg of MLCIN remaining as of 230 PM CDT. The Corpus Christi ACARS, which is likely a bit more representative of the upstream environment of potential thunderstorm activity in our area, shows a slightly weaker cap within the same layer. It`s thus possible that continued heating/moistening could erode the cap over this portion of the area, supporting scattered thunderstorm development. An isolated storm is also possible over our Hill Country zones in connection to the surging dryline discussed in the synopsis, though most guidance points to any development staying to our north. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concerns in any of these storms, though an isolated tornado can`t be completely ruled out. Have a way to receive watch and warning information over the next several hours across these portions of South-Central Texas. Tonight: Some patchy fog/drizzle is possible primarily along the Balcones Escarpment during the predawn hours. Widespread dense fog isn`t expected, though visibilities could drop to and below 1 mile in isolated locations across Hill Country and the Southern Edwards Plateau. Slow down, use low beam headlights, and allow for extra following distance if encountering one of these spots while driving. Thursday Evening & Night: Storm chances will increase as the cold front discussed above enters the area. Expect the majority of the potential to be confined to the overnight period, although an isolated storm can`t be completely ruled out earlier in the evening along a prefrontal trough axis positioned over Hill Country and the southern Edwards Plateau. Severe weather will be possible in this activity, with large hail and damaging winds once more being the primary concerns. SPC continues a marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe thunderstorms outside of the Rio Grande in light of this potential, with a small portion of Hill Country and the I-35 Corridor being included in a slight (level 2/5) risk. Widespread flooding is not a concern, though storms could produce brief heavy downpours. This could lead to brief ponding of water & rises at low water crossings in areas seeing multiple rounds of activity. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A cold front will be through our area by start of the long term period Thursday and some storms may linger until around noon. Northerly winds behind the front will bring drier air ending any rain chances. Thursday night the winds will switch back around to the south or southeast returning warm, moist air to the region. Another cold front will move through the area Friday night. Models are getting a bit more aggressive with this system. They show a surge of PW with strong instability and vertical wind shear. POPs have increased slightly from the previous forecast. The ingredients also look to be there for strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. We will see if this trend continues as we get closer. Winds will be northerly again Saturday bringing dry weather for the weekend. Temperatures will be cooler with below normal with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 70s Saturday and 80s Sunday. Dry weather will continue through the end of the period with temperatures warming a few degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Short term concern is convection that has developed early this evening. TSRA should impact AUS now through 01Z. Isolated SHRAs to the southwest, near SAT, are having trouble deepening. We anticipate activity to gradually shift northeast through the evening, and weaken and dissipate after 03Z. MVFR ceilings are forecast to re-develop 02Z-05Z across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 then expand toward the Rio Grande toward 06Z. A lowering into IFR is expected overnight and into Tuesday morning, with a pocket of LIFR ceilings and -DZ/BR possible near the escarpment between SAT-AUS. Ceilings are expected to gradually improve 15Z-19Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 65 83 62 79 / 30 30 70 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 81 61 78 / 30 30 60 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 84 62 80 / 30 20 50 40 Burnet Muni Airport 63 81 58 76 / 20 30 70 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 89 62 85 / 0 10 60 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 81 59 76 / 30 30 70 30 Hondo Muni Airport 67 84 62 81 / 10 10 60 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 82 62 78 / 30 20 60 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 81 64 76 / 40 20 50 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 83 64 81 / 20 20 60 40 Stinson Muni Airport 67 85 65 82 / 20 20 50 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Quigley Long-Term...05 Aviation...76
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
943 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 851 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Have continued to trim QPF especially for north of Highway 40 as dry air aloft seen on water vapor imagery and RAP soundings have allowed drizzle to be the primary factor so far this evening. Soundings do show the dry air saturating throughout the night. As result have adjusted pops to show this trend. One of the more impressive looking areas of rainfall is developing in the Colby/Oakley area currently, which suggests to me that the dry air is starting to saturate across the area. Current thinking now is rainfall ranging from 0.06 inches in McCook to 1.36 inches in Tribune. The main low is currently in SW Colorado/NW New Mexico and is forecasted to move across northern New Mexico. Guidance does show a sharp precipitation gradient especially along Interstate 70, any slight wobble south with the low may further lower forecasted rainfall amounts. As for high temperatures for Wednesday, I upped the temperatures a few degrees along and north of I-70 due to relatively quicker exit of rainfall and stratus. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1159 AM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 18Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicates strong H5 circulation approaching the Four Corners. At the surface widespread southeasterly flow was in place as low pressure continued to develop over the Rockies. Most pressing concern will be how much, and where, precipitation will fall through tomorrow. Initial wave of precipitation in area of warm air advection has not lived up to initial expectations, with only organized widespread area of precipitation occurring across eastern Colorado. Weak subsidence/short wave ridging has likely inhibited much of today`s rainfall as forcing not able to overcome inversion due to aforementioned ridge. Expect scattered showers to continue through the day, but think overall amounts from today`s precipitation will be light. Four corners system will continue to move to the southeast tonight and into the Texas panhandle on Wednesday. This track is more southerly than previously expected and with isentropic fields indicating a sharp turn to more downward motion I expect a pretty sharp northern gradient to precipitation. Based on latest data, expect bulk of precipitation to fall south of a Flagler to Quinter line. In this area looks like widespread 0.5 to 1.25 inches of precipitation can be expected, with amounts trailing off pretty quickly to the north of that line. Most of the area will see rain overnight and into tomorrow, but most significant amounts will be confined to the south. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 137 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 00Z Thursday the area is under northerly flow aloft with the upper low over NW OK and the TX Panhandle. An upper low center is over Manitoba sliding eastward across Canada. By midday Thursday another low is moving southeastward out of Saskatchewan into E MT and the Dakotas. Showers are expected to be coming to an end Wednesday night, followed by Thursday morning temperatures in the upper 20s to middle 30s and a pleasant afternoon in store with temperatures climbing near to slightly above normal, into the middle 60s to middle 70s. Flow briefly backs towards the west late Thursday-early Friday as the positively tilted trough slides southward into CO. Flow returns stronger out of the northwest with the approaching low pressure system. An associated surface front will move through in this timeframe, bringing cooler, below normal temperatures and another round of shower and thunderstorm chances from Thursday evening into the day on Friday, mainly in the form of rain though some snow mixing in overnight cannot be ruled out for portions of eastern CO. This round is expected to be less impactful when compared to the rainfall expected Tuesday/Wednesday, with most ensembles indicating QPF near fifteen hundredths to two tenths of an inch total while the GEFS shows up to a third to four tenths of an inch. With the disagreement here between models will need to monitor for greater consistency. In addition to the precipitation chances and cooler temperatures, Friday`s cold front passage will usher in gusty north-northwesterly winds of around 35-45 knots. Overnight lows Thursday night to Friday morning will be in the 30s to low 40s, with afternoon highs in the 50s. Into the weekend, the low progresses into TX and our area sees north to slightly northeasterly flow aloft back to the northwest as a ridge of high pressure builds into the western CONUS with a low center over the Great Lakes region within a broad trough over the eastern CONUS. Another low approaches the west coast by the start of the work week. As is often the case after a cold front moves through the area, Friday night into Saturday morning is expected to be colder than the previous night, owed to the clearing cloud cover, with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to middle 30s. We`ll undergo a warming trend back into the 60s and low 70s by Saturday, continuing near normal through the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 940 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 LIFR ceilings associated with on and off showers through the night are forecast at KGLD. Showers are a bit more widely scattered at KMCK so keeping VCSH in the TAF along with MVFR ceilings through sunrise. For KGLD, expecting showers to pretty come to an end around sunrise or shortly after with IFR ceilings returning and then rising through the day and through the end of the TAF period. There is a low chance for perhaps some fog to develop after sunset Wednesday as skies clear out and winds become light and variable. Overall uncertainty with the coverage and magnitude so will leave out of the TAF for now. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1023 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Synopsis: The latest RAP analysis shows a large upper level low spinning across the central and eastern Great Lakes early this afternoon. This low will slowly drift off to the north over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, high pressure stretching from Hudson Bay to the northern Mississippi Valley will become centered over the western Great Lakes tonight and the central Great Lakes on Wednesday. Sky/Precip: With steep low level lapse rates, a widespread convective cloud field developed by late morning today. Haven`t seen signs of showers popping up, but wouldn`t be surprised to see a few spotty showers develop through early this evening. Patches of convective clouds will likely linger into the evening hours, but in general, a gradual clearing trend should occur tonight, leading to mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions after midnight. Patchy ground fog is possible late tonight as high pressure arrives and winds decouple. Central and north-central WI appear to have the highest potential. Convective clouds will likely develop again by late morning on Wednesday. Cloud bases will be higher than today and no precip is expected. Temperatures: Remained close to the best performing guidance for highs and lows over the next 24 hours. Did drop lows a couple degrees in the cold spots tonight. .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Overall, looking at a fairly stagnant weather pattern throughout the long term forecast with an upper low parked across the Great Lakes. This will keep cool, cyclonic flow across the forecast area, with occasional showers and below normal temperatures. On Wednesday night and Thursday, this pattern will not have completely established itself yet. High pressure will depart, with incoming mid- level shortwave and isentropic lift, which will help generate rain. Rain will be likely across northern WI closer to the main energy, with a chance across central into east-central WI. Despite the rain and clouds, WAA will help boost temperatures closer to normal on Thursday, with highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Another shortwave approaches the area Friday, but may hold off until the evening. Wisconsin will remain in the `warm` airmass on Friday ahead of this shortwave, allowing highs to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s again. By Friday evening, shortwave comes through, which is part of the much broader upper trough. Over the weekend this trough becomes and upper low and models are in fairly good agreement showing this low just spinning over the Great Lakes through the weekend and into at least the first half of next week. Cooler air will get wrapped into this which will keep temperatures below normal. Precipitation will not be constant, but the chance will exist everyday. Timing will depend on individual shortwaves, but overall expecting precip through the period be to below normal. Snow or a rain/snow mix is possible across the Northwoods, otherwise ptypes will be predominately rain. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 A weak anticyclone will pass southeast through the area during the TAF period. It`s still possible some St/FG could form late tonight, though have not seen any sign of that happening yet. Some diurnal cloudiness will reform tomorrow, though anticipate more of a SCT-BKN coverage compared to the BKN-OVC coverage of today. Bases should be high enough to maintain VFR conditions. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KLJ AVIATION.......Skowronski
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
956 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds and light precipitation traverse the region through Tuesday night as a cold front and shortwave trough swing through. High pressure then builds in on Wednesday and briefly dries out conditions before a more robust system moves in Thursday, bringing in more widespread precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A weak cold front will continue to push southeast through our area during the overnight hours while some mid level energy rotates southeast across northern and central Ohio. Some of the models are hinting at some weak low/mid level convergence developing overnight, possibly in association with a very subtle low level jet. This may be enough for an axis of isolated to scattered showers to develop in the early morning hours somewhere across central portions of our fa. Will therefore allow for 20/30 pops to sag slowly south across portions of our area overnight, similar to what the latest HRRR is suggesting. Cloud cover forecast will be difficult tonight as we have seen some partial clearing early this evening but will likely see some clouds reforming overnight with the weak convergent boundary. This in turn makes for a tough temp/frost forecast as any areas that end up remaining less cloudy will likely at least some patchy frost development. Given the uncertainty though, will generally stick with the ongoing forecast with lows mostly in the 35 to 40 degree range and continue with the frost advisory across our northwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... High pressure across the Great Lakes region will be our primary weather driver through the day Wednesday. Northerly flow will usher in some drier air and allow for clouds to dissolve through the late morning hours. Daytime highs remain just below seasonal normals, but there will be increasing sunshine as we progress into the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An active long term pattern will be in place for the extended. A system will work up from the south on Thursday. There are some timing differences with this system that will have an impact on temperatures on Thursday. There is consistency with the precipitation overspreading the region by Thursday evening and have high precipitation chances Thursday night. There will also be the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. The slow moving low pressure system will continue to bring rain to the area on Friday into Friday evening. With an upper low over the Great Lakes for the weekend and into early next week there will be several systems that work into the region. Temperatures will be below normal for much of the extended timeframe with daily wind gusts Sunday through early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... It will be tough to rule out a few spotty light rain showers or sprinkles tonight as a weak cold front continues to move southeast across our area. A brief period of MVFR cigs will be possible late tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly across our northern areas. Otherwise, high pressure will build into the region from the north through the day on Wednesday. this will lead to a decreasing cloud trend though late morning and into the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Thursday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034- 035-042-043. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
842 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 833 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Quick look at latest HRRR and currently arriving 00z NAM continue to trend slightly southward with the heaviest precip overnight into Wed morning, with main band through Pueblo County into the Wet Mountains and lighter amounts farther north. At this point, won`t make any changes to highlights, but will likely begin to dial back snowfall amounts over Teller/El Paso Counties (including Colorado Springs area) with the next forecast update, as model QPF in these areas has definitely trended downward. Big winner in terms of snowfall looks to be the Wet Mountains, with amounts in excess of 3 feet over the higher peaks by late Wed. Lower elevations of Pueblo County will do well with rainfall, as over an inch has already fallen in many locations (0.86 here at the airport as of 830 pm), with another inch looking possible by Wed midday, especially south of Highway 50. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 309 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Key Messages: 1. Heavy mountain snows to impact the southeast mountains and portions of the I-25 corridor tonight into Wednesday 2. Marginal strong to severe thunderstorm risk continues for southern portions of the southeast plains through early evening An intense upper low over UT will continue to track southeastward into northeast NM by Wednesday morning...spreading intense lift across southern CO. A well defined baroclinic leaf will develop across the southeast mountains and plains this afternoon and evening. Then, as the system drops southward a well defined TROWAL wraps around its northern and western periphery bringing an intense period of precipitation with the potential for 1 to 3 inch snowfall rates focused across the southeast mountains tonight into Wednesday morning. With impressive isentropic upglide across the area, we are still looking at widespread QPF amounts of at least an inch across the plains with pockets of 2 inches or more along the east slopes of the Wets where upslope will amplify precipitation amounts. This will be a high end event for the southeast mountains with snow measured in feet. Still looking at the heaviest snow focusing on the east slopes and higher elevations of Pikes Peak and the Wet Mountains. Maximum totals of 1 to 3 feet will be possible. The southern Sangres and Raton Mesa will be flirting with a dry slot which will cut back precipitation amounts during the early part of the storm, but wrap around precipitation appears to bring healthy QPF totals of around an inch for the latter half of the storm. Snowfall accumulations along the I-25 corridor will be highly variable and dependent on the timing of the drop in snow levels tonight. Diabatic cooling under the upper low and during the heavier precipitation rates are likely to drive snow levels down to 5000 feet or lower at times. This will yield amounts in the 1-2 inch range on grassy surfaces for northern Pueblo and far southern El Paso 4 to 8 inches across much of Colorado Springs and Huerfano over a foot on the west side of Colorado Springs, for Beulah and Rye, and locations to the west of Walsenburg. Lots of variability in snowfall amounts can be expected along the upper Arkansas River Valley of Fremont, Chaffee and Lake county as well, with Canon City seeing an inch or two at times, to over 6 inches near the higher terrain. If snow levels drop more quickly, then snow could stack up even more than anticipated given the heavy precipitation rates. Main impacts to roads will be in and near the mountains, Monument Hill, and around Walsenburg and Raton Pass. Lower elevation roads will get slushy at times with poor visibility during the heavier snow switch over, but with temperatures dropping to around freezing, residual ground warmth will allow them to melt out during lighter precipitation and after sun-up Wednesday. Overall highlights still look on target. Some locations in the warning areas will come up shy away from the mountains, while other locations achieve warning amounts quite handily. The same can be said for the advisory areas though restrictions to visibility during the snow switch over may magnify impacts even if snow amounts come up shy. Activity will decrease from north to south on Wednesday as the system drops southward into the TX panhandle by afternoon. Ending times for the warnings across the southern sections still look good. Shaded high temperatures towards the colder side given persistence of the storm out east and lingering showers and clouds through the afternoon. As for the strong to severe thunderstorm potential this evening, still looking at elevated instability north of the surface surface boundary, with storms carrying more of a small hail risk across northern portions of the risk area. Farther south across Las Animas county there is a better chance for surface based convection with quarter size hail, damaging winds and a non-zero risk for a tornado. Best helicity will hug the northern slopes of the Raton Ridge so this would be the most likely area for any brief tornado development. By 6 PM the risk should be decreasing as event will transition towards a more stratiform event and we head into the heavy snow portion of the storm for the mountains. Some minor flooding can`t be ruled out for the lower elevations overnight as widespread persistent rainfall sets in. But overall, it looks like much needed precipitation for southeast CO. Stay tuned for updates through the evening. Dynamic storms like these are prone to snow level changes. Check road conditions before heading out Wednesday morning. -KT .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Key messages: 1) Quick-hitting disturbance Thursday night and Friday. 2) Gradual warming Saturday through Tuesday. Wednesday night and Thursday...Upper low will be located over the TX and OK Panhandles Wed evening, and will continue to push east out of the area through the night. Lingering showers across the southeast corner of CO are forecast to diminish by midnight as the system departs. Brisk northwest flow aloft and partly cloudy skies settle in for Thu as the next upper shortwave drops south into MT and WY. Plan on overnight low temps in the 20s to around 30F for much of the area, then high temps rebound into the upper 50s to upper 60s on Thu. Thursday night and Friday...The next shortwave to affect the area will arrive Thu evening, with the associated cold front likely to drop south across the Palmer Divide between 6 and 8 PM. Latest model runs have shown an increase in the strength of this feature, with likely to categorical pops forecast for much of the area from 6 PM Thu until around noon on Fri, before activity quickly drops off from north to south. Current forecast temps have lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s for much of the area, then highs on Fri in the 40s to around 50F. A drop in the overnight lows will make a huge difference in realized snowfall, but forecast total snow amounts indicate 6-9 inches for all of the mt peaks, about 4 inches for Monument Hill and 1-2 inches across the San Luis Valley as well as the I-25 Corridor. Stay tuned as this will likely change, and highlights may be needed for at least the higher terrain. Saturday and Sunday...Ridge of high pressure develops over the Great Basin and Rocky Mt regions, providing for warmer temps and generally dry conditions, with a potential for isolated convection over the mts each afternoon. Maximum temps are forecast to climb to seasonal norms. Monday and Tuesday...Upper ridge axis pushes east across the Four Corners Monday, with a deep Pacific low pressure system dropping down along the CA coastline. Southwest flow aloft increases across the Desert SW and Four Corners, increasing warmth across CO as well as aiding in moisture advection. Look for temps to start climbing to slightly above seasonal normals, as well as an increase in convection across all of the forecast area both days. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 309 PM MDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Expect lowering cigs and vis for KCOS and KPUB as widespread rain and snow showers expand across the area through the evening. Cigs will drop into the IFR to LIFR category as snow levels drop into the KCOS area towards 03z, and into the KPUB area around 10-11z. These conditions will continue into the morning with improving cigs/vis for KCOS after 12z and after 15z for KPUB. Showers will be possible at both terminals in the afternoon but under MVFR conditions with VCSH more likely to cover the scenario. Strong southwest winds will continue this evening with VCTS/VCSH possible through through 02z. Main round of -SHRASN will come after 04z with Cigs/Vis dropping into the MVFR range. Improving conditions expected Wednesday morning as the system pulls away to the southeast. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ058-060-061- 063-072>082-084-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ059-062- 066. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ083-086. Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ087. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ088. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...KT