Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/24/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1128 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy with areas of fog overnight. May see some clearing across
CT/RI as a dry slot punches in, but uncertain given relatively
light winds. The weather pattern remains unsettled through the
upcoming week, with daily opportunities for isolated to
scattered rain showers. Temperatures near to below normal.
Periods of rain expected this week due to a mid-level feature
stuck over New England. Though do not expect any heavy rain or
washouts. Temperatures remain at or slightly below normal for
the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
11 PM Update...
Precipitation at this point has exited. Still a tricky forecast
with regards to visibilities/cloud cover. Have a low over our
area now with a dry slot punching into western areas. This is
perhaps bringing enough of a pressure gradient that is allowing
the fog to lift, but in most spots the low stratus is lingering.
The only exception is across eastern areas, where the
fog/stratus persists. Thinking that the pressure gradient
slackens a bit late tonight, which will allow more widespread
fog to develop. Some uncertainty here with the dry slot punching
in, stratus overhead and weak NWly wind component. At this point
have fog becoming more widespread once again late tonight into
early Mon, but will need to closely monitor as guidance is a bit
all over the place. Not out of the question fog could be dense
in spots. Temps bottoming out in the 40s.
830 PM Update:
The heaviest rain has moved out, remaining showers extend from
Cape Ann to the south shore of Boston and to the outer Cape. The
HRRR suggests that the rain should be long gone between 02z/04z.
That said, CIGs are only a few hundred feet tonight east of the
CT River, areas of mist/drizzle likely overnight.
Wind does turn more out of the NW this evening and into the
overnight, given the flow is weak, areas of fog are likely to
develop and could become locally dense by tomorrow morning
across eastern MA and into RI. Following shifts will need to
monitor for any changes.
Temperatures hold steady overnight only dropping a few degrees
at most tonight. Coldest spots are found in the northwest corner
of MA where lows dip in the upper-30s, while the rest are in
the middle and upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The synoptic pattern will slowly evolve during this portion of
the forecast. Will still be dealing with a deep mid level cutoff
over the Great Lakes and portions of southern Canada. It will be
some time before a weak surface low pressure and its frontal
boundaries will move far enough offshore to no longer impact our
weather.
Currently thinking a low pressure reaches the coast this
evening, but it will not be until Monday night before it will
move from just off the east coast of MA into the Gulf of Maine.
While this should mean plenty of lift nearby, not every aspect
of the forecast will be as steady, namely the amount of
moisture. Thinking the brunt of humidity will move north of
southern New England for Monday into Monday night. Thus, once we
get past the current steady rainfall, we would only be looking
at the possibility of hit-and-miss showers from late tonight
into Monday Night. Not a total washout by any means.
No large swings in temperatures anticipated, with generally
below normal high temperatures and above normal low
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE:
Highlights...
* Periods of showers expected this week due to a mid-level feature
stuck over New England. Though do not expect any heavy rain or
washouts.
* Temperatures remain at or slightly below normal for the rest of
the week into the upcoming weekend.
Overview...
STUCK. That is the word that comes to mind for this coming week with
the mid-level low STUCK over the northeast due to a blocking feature
down stream. As the week goes on shortwave energy pivots around the
broad cyclonic flow, this continues rain chances well into the week
ahead. Beyond the end of the week forecast confidence lowers because
the continuity between model runs are not the best. For now, come
Friday or Saturday the mid-level low seems to be absorbed into a
cutoff low south of Greenland with mid-level ridge developing into
next weekend.
Precipitation...
After a soggy weekend, the week ahead does not feature significant
rain, more or less isolated to scattered rain. PWATs for much of the
week range between 0.3 and 0.5 inch, which is slightly below normal
for late April. As previously discussed the timing of said showers
are difficult to nail down due to the positioning of the mid-level
low and timing when individual shortwaves move across the CWA. Aloft
temperatures are cold, around -25C to -30C. And that cold pool aloft
does not exit the region until Friday night/Saturday. When you have
such cold air aloft it does steepen lapse rates during the day when
surface temperatures warm. Clouds and showers are likely to be
driven by the diurnal heating and in conjunction with the passage of
numerous shortwaves. A look at the multi-run trends for storm total
precipitation, most the CWA receives a few hundredths of an inch of
new precipitation through Friday/early Saturday. More or less
nuisance showers are the theme of the week.
Temperatures...
Cooler period this week with temperatures at or slightly below normal
for late April. 850mb temperatures are fairly consistent on either
side of 0C. This results in daily highs in the upper-50s to low-60s.
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning looks to be our coolest morning
this week, with the northern hills of northern Massachusetts dipping
into the low-30s. Which will need to monitor for frost given the
frost/freeze program has started for our northern zones.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Mainly IFR to LIFR overnight, with pockets of MVFR across the
CT River Valley. Rain continues to slide NNE and exits the east
coast of MA between 02z/03z. With low CIGs can not rule out mist
or drizzle. Wind becomes NW/NNW.
Monday...Moderate confidence.
IFR-LIFR ceilings from ORH eastward, IFR-MVFR ceilings for
BDL/BAF. BR/FG with periods of drizzle, though may see ISO/SCT
SHRA during the mid-morning thru mid-aftn. NW winds 4-8 kt
interior; light SE winds flip to SW around 4-8 kt for RI and
Cape/Islands; eastern MA sees ESE/E winds become NE then NW with
speeds mainly 5 kt or less.
Monday Night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Slight chance SHRA.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low confidence in
fog tonight.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low confidence in
fog tonight.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Breezy. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Little overall change with marine forecast. Small Craft Advisory
conditions continue for some waters into Monday, and in the case
of the outer coastal waters, into Monday night. Expecting poor
visibility less than 1 NM at times. Gusty SE winds also develop
overnight and continue into Sunday. A cold front should approach
the eastern waters/cross the southern coastal waters late
tonight. The timing of this front is not certain. but could take
into Monday night before finally moving east of all the waters.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 20 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
* Heaviest rains come to an end across eastern MA this evening
ending the urban/poor drainage flood threat. Continue to
monitor Farmington River in Simsbury tonight as levels
continue to rise.
Rain has ended for most, with the back end of the rain exiting
eastern Massachusetts as of 00z. Anticipate it will take another
hour or two for the back edge to clear Cape Ann and Cape Cod. As
for the flood threat, smaller rivers and streams have crest and
are receding. For the rest of the night we will continue to
monitor the Farmington River in Simsbury as forecast show
levels continuing to rise as the smaller tributaries empty into
the Farmington.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ255.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Gaucher/BL
NEAR TERM...Belk/BL/Gaucher
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Gaucher
AVIATION...Belk/Gaucher
MARINE...Belk/Gaucher
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1020 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Another cloudy and cool April afternoon with temperatures in
the middle 30s to lower 40s. For the rest of the afternoon into
this evening, a weak surface trough will sink southward across
the area. Models are considerably drier compared to yesterday.
The HRRR model is the most aggressive with scattered rain/snow
showers developing across the area. Per coordination with
surrounding offices, have lower the chances although some models
would suggest the entire area would remain dry. Based on radar
trends upstream, do think there will be isolated rain/snow showers
around the area until mid evening.
Sky cover later tonight will be problematic as bufkit soundings
indicated cloud cover would linger through much of the night.
The latest satellite trends would suggest skies should become
partly cloudy. Previous forecast leaned that way and will
continue those forecast sky trends. It will be very cold with
lows in the upper teens and 20s.
On Monday, a stronger upper level system will drop southeast
into the area. This feature, combined with cold air aloft
and areas of low level convergence will bring scattered
rain/snow showers to the area from late morning into Monday
evening. No real significant chances to precipitation chances
on Monday compared to the previous forecast. Highs Monday
will be in the 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
No significant changes to the extended portion of the forecast.
A very messy and disjointed large-scale pattern with low
predictability with a variety of mainly weak embedded
disturbances in both the northern on southern streams. Overall,
with limited available moisture and the western Great Lakes mostly
dominated by northwesterly flow, precipitation amounts through
much of the work week will be below normal.
Monday Night and Tuesday:
A couple weak impulses will be rotating around the southern
periphery of elongated closed upper-level low pressure and will
bring scattered mostly diurnal rain and snow showers.
Early Monday evening, an associated weak surface trough will be
dropping southward across the forecast area and although any
remaining weak instability will be waning, consensus of the model
guidance does hang onto some light rain and snow shower activity
that will most likely impact areas along and north of Highway 29
through 06Z or so Tuesday. Only scattered amounts generally less
than a tenth of an inch is expected with minimal impacts. Then
during the day on Tuesday, a secondary weak shortwave impulse will
drift across the forecast area above a post frontal cool boundary
layer northerly flow. This will likely keep plenty of clouds
across the forecast area and may also contribute to some very
light and scattered diurnal rain and snow shower activity once
again. On Tuesday night, weak high pressure will build quickly
across the forecast area. However, boundary layer flow will remain
out of the north so expect some lake-enhanced SC to persist
especially north of Highway 29 with clouds becoming somewhat more
scattered over southern areas. Overnight lows will be mostly in
the 20s.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night:
Weak surface high pressure should remain in control with dry
weather expected. Boundary layer winds will still be out of the
north and northeast thus would expect some clouds around
especially across the north. Highs on Wednesday will moderate
somewhat with highs mostly in the 45 to 50 degree range and
overnight lows in middle 20s north to lower 30s south, which is
close to the blended guidance.
Thursday and Thursday Night:
After a quiet start with some early sun, a more potent shortwave
will be approaching the upper Mississippi Valley region late
Thursday and Thursday night. Although moisture looks to be
limited with this system, mid-level PVA and associated low-level WAA
should be fairly robust leading to an area of mainly light rain
and rain shower activity that will skirt across the far north
Thursday night. Overnight lows will continue to moderate within a
modest southeasterly flow with lows in the 30s to around 40.
Friday:
Most long-term guidance suggests that heights will build
substantially across western Canada on Friday which will allow for
a deepening trough across the northern Plains by Friday afternoon.
Associated surface low pressure will develop and deepen over the
eastern Dakotas leading to a broader area of showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop late in the day. At this time,
it is too early to determine how far east this activity will get
but latest ensemble model guidance suggests that the activity
should remain west of the forecast area through about 12Z
Saturday. The forecast area will likely be embedded within a broad
WAA regime, thus expect a fair amount of clouds on Friday which
will likely hold temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range which
is closer to normal for late April.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Some decrease in clouds is expected overnight, but clouds will
reform in the 14-15Z time frame tomorrow as the convective
temperature is reached. Bases are expected to be high enough to
result in primarily VFR conditions. An uptick in shower activity
is expected tomorrow (compared to Sunday) as a vort digging
southeast from Ontario causes the large scale trough to sharpen
across the area.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1046 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather will continue
tonight and persist through early this week as a frontal
boundary stalls over New England. This front will bring a
widespread wetting rainfall to the area. Showery weather is then
likely to persist through the middle of the week as an upper
level low crosses over the region. Drier conditions and slightly
warmer temperatures are then possible for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM Update...No significant changes at this time, just some
minor adjustments to account for trends in observational data.
640 PM Update...Have updated the forecast for the balance of the
evening hours, mainly to tighten up PoPs as there`s still a
pretty tight gradient on the front of the rain shield. It will
still take some midcoast and Central ME zones several hours to
see measurable rain. Otherwise, adjusted temperatures down a
bit where it is raining. Several NH rivers will see action stage
tonight but no flooding is expected.
Previously...
Mesoscale models continue to pivot the rain shield to the east
overnight with the latest HRRR and NamNest solutions suggesting
the heavier and steadier precipitation will mostly be confined
to Maine by the 00Z-02Z timeframe. This is where the best
dynamics will be situated overnight with lighter precipitation
over New Hampshire. A rumble of thunder remains possible through
this evening as well.
Ptype will be in the form of rain as suggested by atmospheric
profiles. The exception will be the higher peaks of the northern
mountains. The sleet and freezing rain as of 18Z will change to
snow overnight as heights fall across the region. It will be
chilly and raw with lows in the 30s to lower 40s except cooler
in the mountains.
With plenty of low level moisture in place, have added
additional fog to the overnight forecast which is in agreement
with the latest HREF solution.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The steady precipitation diminishes on Monday, however Pops
will still remain high across the region. Guidance has backed
off on the heavier precipitation over the last few days and is
currently more progressive with the deeper moisture shifting to
the east on Monday. Nevertheless, plenty of upper level support
will allow for periods of light rain and raw, chilly conditions
for this time of the year. Afternoon highs will only be in the
40s in most areas with accumulating snow over the highest peaks.
Not much change in conditions are expected Monday night with
perhaps the best chance for any additional light precipitation
shifting to central and northern areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended period begins as moderate precipitation tapers off
becoming more scattered and showery as a stalled frontal
boundary remains draped across the area through the week. An
upper level blocking high continues to remain centered over
Newfoundland/Labrador, finally eroding at the end of the week.
This leave a cluster of upper level shortwaves reaching from the
Great Lakes to New England through Wednesday before brief
ridging allows these shortwaves to disorganize Thursday and
Friday. Ensemble guidance then shows a few more shortwaves
working their way southeast from their current position over the
Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska towards the midwest, eventually
reforming a broad upper level low across the Great Lakes and New
England late next weekend.
After a lengthy frontal passage, rainfall becomes more scattered
and showery on Tuesday as unsettled conditions linger bringing light
precip through Thursday, becoming lighter with time. Clouds and
onshore flow will keep temperatures down along the coast through the
week. Towards the end of the week the shortwaves moving south from
Alaska mentioned earlier begin developing a surface low over the
central CONUS. The location, track, and strength of this potential
low are still highly uncertain so I have just gone with a general
chance PoP for late in the weekend when we could see potential
impacts from this system.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...IFR or lower conditions expected overnight in areas
of rain and fog. Low ceilings to continue on Monday into Monday
night.
Long Term...Unsettled conditions linger through the first part of
the long term as widespread showery precip brings reduced
ceilings and visibilities. MVFR ceilings and -SHRA restrictions
will likely remain scattered across the terminals through Wednesday
before conditions begin improving Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Have expanded SCAs to include the bays in this
latest forecast package. Casco Bay will continue headlines
through Monday with Penobscot Bay beginning SCAs during the day
Monday.
Long Term...Seas will be subsiding Tuesday morning from SCA thresholds
with waves at 2-4ft by the evening. Some marine fog may be possible
as moisture and showers linger over the waters with onshore flow
during the days. Seas then begin building again at the start of
the weekend with another potential low pressure system
approaching.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A cold front will stall over the region tonight through Monday.
This will result in a general 1-2 inches of rainfall in Maine.
Elsewhere, between 0.50-1.00" can be expected. Showery weather
then will continue through mid-week, although additional
rainfall amounts will likely be low.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ151.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ153.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Thunberg
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1018 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front will push across the area and just offshore
late tonight or early Mon before stalling. High pressure will
follow Mon and persist thru Tue. Low pressure systems will
periodically affect the area Wed thru Fri with unsettled
weather conditions at times. Their tracks will generally
remain just south and east of the forecast area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Some tweaking applied to the sky coverage based on latest mid
and upper level cloud movement via sat imagery. Applied a degree
or 2 tweaks lower to the Min and hrly temps based on latest
trends along with latest HRRR guidance. Just enough rad cooling
may bring mins to 50 in the vicinity of the ILM/CHS CWA border.
Winds will veer to the W-NW 5 mph or less prior to the cfp
during the pre-dawn Mon nrs. After fropa, NNW- NNE 5 to 9 mph,
may take until 1-2 hrs after sunrise Mon for the CFP to clear
the coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another cold front will drop through the area overnight into
Monday, bringing an increase in clouds overnight into Monday
with cooler temperatures for Monday. Lows tonight will fall to
the low to mid 50s with highs Monday near 70, give or take a
degree or two.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Clear and cool overnight allowing radiational cooling to bring
temperatures into the mid and lower 40s by Tuesday morning. High
pressure maintains quiet weather on Tuesday with the air mass
moderating slightly with onshore flow. Slightly warmer with
highs in the low to mid 70s. Mild overnight, dropping into the
low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An extended period of unsettled weather develops on Wednesday
with a stationary front to our south. Surface lift will provide
light shower chances in response to a weak trough developing SW
to NE from southern GA through eastern NC. With the trough and
mid level shortwave moving offshore, a surface low will
strengthen off of the NC coast, maintaining shower chances
overnight.
A larger shortwave will approach the area late Thursday as the
stalled frontal boundary begins to surge northward from northern
FL and southern GA. Showers remain possible during the day on
Thursday, but is likely to the be the lull between two
disturbances. Unsettled weather and showers increase Thursday
evening into Friday with low pressure navigating around the
shallow wedge of high pressure over the Carolinas. Models
continue to illustrate important differences in deterministic
and ensemble solutions. Uncertainty in exact impacts remains
high, but unsettled weather through Friday appears likely
regardless of the timing. Next weekend`s weather will depend on
the preceding pattern, but a brief warm up may precede a strong
cold front at some point during the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate through the 24 hr valid taf issuance
period. Mid and upper level clouds to eventually move overhead
later tonight thru the Mon as a cold front drops across and
eventually east of the area during Mon before stalling. No pcpn
being fcst at this time. Timing of the CFP and the wind
direction changes will be the problem childs. After FROPA,
winds will generally become NNW-NNE around 10 kt thruout.
Extended Outlook...VFR into Tue. Potential for flight
restrictions increase Wed thru the end of the week due to a
series of disturbances developing and moving along a stationary
front south and east of Northeast SC and Southeast NC.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Monday... For tonight, expect SW winds of 5 to 10 KT to
become W then N to NE around daybreak Monday. Speeds may
increase to 10 to 15 KT at times Monday. Seas will generally run
2 to 3 FT through the period.
Monday Night through Friday... High pressure builds into the area
through early next week, maintaining quiet marine conditions on
Monday and Tuesday. A weak disturbance will develop along the
immediate coast late Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing winds
and seas for a brief period. Unsettled weather continues late
next week with elevated winds and seas. Confidence in the
forecast beyond Wednesday evening is low.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...21/31
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
906 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
This evening, weak sfc high pressure ridge is located near the GA
coast as another cold front is moving into central GA and parts
of the Carolinas. The front will continue pushing southward
tonight and Monday morning, while shortwaves move into the area
from the west. These will be accompanied by increasing cloudiness
through the night. No rain chances are indicated for the area
tonight given the very dry airmass to start off tonight. Enhanced
forcing aloft and much more moisture for Monday will bring a
chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm for the southern
zones. For the update, some adjustment made to lower temps
slightly tonight, and then for Monday we upped the rain chances a
bit for the southern most zones, but tapered back the t-storm
chances a bit given the very weak instability. Little change in
the CWF update with just minor changes for winds and seas for rest
of tonight.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Beautiful weather is expected to continue this evening, with dry
air present ahead of a wet week. Low temperatures will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, with calm winds and sky cover gradually
increasing towards sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Mostly cloudy skies as moisture returns on Monday will keep high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for most of southeast Georgia
and northeast Florida, with areas south of Gainesville and west
of I-95 possibly hitting the lower 80s. In the late morning /
early afternoon some scattered showers will begin to fill in from
the southwest, with the highest chances for isolated thunderstorms
being in northeast Florida east of I-75.
Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer than Monday, with more
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms expected due to sea
breeze convergence paired with moisture ahead of a frontal
system.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Wednesday is looking like the most active day, with widespread
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall likely as a warm front moves over
our area. The best chances for strong to severe storms along with
heavy rainfall will be Wednesday, but with more precipitation
forecasted for Thursday, rainfall flooding may linger through
Thursday night.
As of now, Saturday is looking like the only dry day during this
period, another cold front approach from the northwest Saturday
night into Sunday. Friday and Saturday will be warmer than normal,
with Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday seeing temperatures near
climatology.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
VFR expected through much of this period. However, expect to see
increasing multilayered clouds by Monday morning as a weak low
pressure system approaches from the west and an upper level
disturbances passes over the region. Sky cover expected to turn
broken to overcast. Some shower activity is expected to push into
parts of northeast and north central FL by mid to late day Monday.
For now, have VCSH for GNV and SGJ and a PROB30 group for showers.
Left showers out of JAX metro northward as the HRRR model guidance
focused convection south parts. MVFR cig or vsby chances with
showers in the aftn are low. The t-storm probabilities look pretty
low so not included at this time. Tonight, sfc winds will become
light and variable or light from the northeast or east. Breezy
northeast flow expected for SGJ, SSI, and CRG after about 14z
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
High pressure will settle north of the waters tonight and Monday.
A warm frontal boundary will lift northward into the waters on
Tuesday with a low pressure system tracking along this boundary on
Wednesday and Thursday, which will bring abundant showers and
thunderstorms over the local waters through the end of the week.
Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk expected Monday and
Tuesday for NE FL and SE GA beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 54 76 55 79 / 0 10 10 20
SSI 61 75 63 74 / 0 20 20 30
JAX 56 78 60 78 / 0 30 20 40
SGJ 63 76 63 76 / 0 30 30 40
GNV 57 80 60 79 / 0 40 20 40
OCF 59 81 61 82 / 0 50 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
932 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
...NEW UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
The region resides under the northern cirrus shield from the MCS
over the western Gulf of Mexico this evening. This blanket of
clouds will help insulate and limit radiational cooling...along
with the gradual increase in northeasterly winds behind a cold
front moving southward through our region. Inherited sprinkles for
this evening, but took those out after looking at the 00z LIX
RAOB with extremely dry low levels. Kept silent POPs respectively,
but most of us should only see mostly cloudy skies overnight.
Otherwise, no changes to the overnight forecast with winds picking
up over the marine zones and Monday looking very mild...but
breezy with overall decreasing clouds expected as drier air tries
to work into the mid and upper levels, especially later in the
day. (Frye)
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Starting things out with this afternoon, mid/upper-level clouds
continue to build in from the west per recent GOES-16 Ch2 VIS
imagery and obs. This is largely what was left of some stratiform
rain left over from convection over central Texas last night that
continues to spread east along quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft.
However, within this flow there is a very subtle reflection of a
shortwave impulse/PVA riding east with some weak returns being
picked up long range from KLIX entering our western CWA as of
early afternoon. While dynamic lift is subtle, its enough to get
virga going in this region up above a dry surface to H7 layer
situated in place. As discussed in the forecast update this
morning, this layer across western areas has moistened up some
reaching around 40-45% RH layer average in the surface to low/mid-
level layer, meaning some of these returns might not have much
trouble reaching the surface, especially brighter returns at
times. Went ahead and bumped up PoPs to follow this impulse east
this afternoon/evening to 10-15%, with drizzle mentioned from
10-14%. Hardly, if any measurable QPF can be expected but perhaps
can`t rule out 0.01-0.05" if this stuff starts to look more
impressive versus now. But, this impulse is going to be bumping
up against even drier low-level air as it tracks east. Much drier
air resides in this same layer over coastal MS following afternoon
mixing, but will respond slowly by wet bulbing with time
moistening from the top down. Just not overly confident mentioning
rain chances east of I-59, but can`t fully rule it out.
Meanwhile, a pretty impressive MCS has taken shape across far
southern Texas, which HRRR runs initializes well by continuing
this complex ESE to eventually SE into the western Gulf. This will
add to the increase in clouds as the anvil canopy spreads NE into
our vicinity. Next question will be now far north can the
stratiform precip shield make it overnight for our area. Once
again, not confident for areas north of I-10/12 but did go ahead
with 15% mention for coastal SE LA as this shield grazes us over
marine areas. Probably a bit more QPF potential for marine zones
but should refrain from being a significant issue. At the same
time, a weak frontal boundary just to our north will continue to
slide south as identified by a noticeable thermal gradient and
reinforcing NE wind shift over central/southern MS. This will
continue to push south overnight tonight with a slight uptick in
surface winds. May become rather gusty at times across north-
facing shorelines like across the immediate Southshore, but
mainly will act as a reinforcement for CAA keeping temperatures
chilly again around daybreak.
Going into Monday, things look quiet as very weak/broad mid-level
ridging builds in from the west and clouds try to depart slowly
but surely. High pressure takes a bit more control over the area
owing to a rather nice day with warm afternoon temperatures. Next
focus will be with a developing system over the central/southern
Plains downstream of the next pacNW shortwave trough diving ESE
into the central Rockies. This in turn aids in downstream
divergent flow supporting broad, large scale lift and eventual
low-genesis along the leeside of the Rockies. Showers/storms get
going over the southern plains/ArkLaTex region late Monday night,
but even beyond the short-range, greatest lift remains well to our
north away from our area leading to a likely dry forecast going
into the day on Tuesday. KLG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Tuesday through Thursday, a shortwave trough is expected to move
through the area, enhancing the chances for rain mid-week.
Easterly to southerly surface winds will help to advect some warm
air and moisture into the area. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will be likely Tuesday into Wednesday, but model consensus
continue to be unclear regarding the timing and amount of
rainfall. Shear at the moment will be generally low. So, there
could be a strong to severe storm, but looking at the models,
widespread severe weather potential is not expected for now. But,
there will be the potential for localized flash flooding with
these storms, especially if they set up along a lingering
boundary. It is still too early to tell the strength of the system
and specific timing, due to a decent lack of model consensus
especially regarding some of the timing. We will keep monitoring
this system as it develops. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Mid and upper cloudiness
will continue to stream north and east. A surface cold front will
continue to gradually shift southward through the area this evening
shifting winds to a more northeast direction. Winds could gust up to
20-25kt for MSY and NEW with the flow off the lake later tonight
and early Monday. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Persistent early flow will continue this evening into tonight as
clouds increase with light showers building in from the west. A
weak frontal boundary will sag south into marine zones later
tonight, owing to a steady increase in winds to small craft
advisory criteria due to gusty offshore flow. Winds will taper
going into the afternoon hours Monday as high pressure settles
into the region. The next frontal boundary and associated
showers/storms arrives on Thursday, with the next system possible
this upcoming weekend on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 49 69 49 72 / 10 10 0 20
BTR 56 73 54 78 / 10 10 10 30
ASD 53 76 53 80 / 10 10 10 20
MSY 60 74 61 78 / 10 10 10 20
GPT 55 74 54 76 / 10 10 0 20
PQL 53 76 52 79 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RDF
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...KLG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
759 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Through this evening)
Issued at 319 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2023
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a broad mid-level low
centered just north of International Falls. A number of shortwaves
are wrapped in its expansive circulation, but none are affecting the
weather over the fcst area this aftn. Springtime stabilizing
influence of Lake Superior is evident over the western part of the
lake where skies are sunny. This stabilizing influence is spreading
inland across Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. Otherwise, clouds dominate
this aftn, and so far, no diurnally generated showers have
developed. The sct -shsn that were streaming into the eastern fcst
area earlier today have dissipated or weakened to a few
flurries/sprinkles. Temps are in the 30s F across the board.
As weak daytime heating thru clouds continues, there may yet be some
-shsnra or sprinkles/flurries that develop across portions of
central Upper MI. If any pcpn develops, it will dissipate around
sunset. Otherwise, clearing spreading into western Upper MI will
continue to progress eastward into central Upper MI thru the
evening. Over the eastern fcst area, nw flow with more extensive
cloud cover upstream suggests clearing will not extend into that
area tonight. Sharper low-level troffing will drop s across eastern
Lake Superior overnight, and this may aid the development of a few
-shsn late tonight to the e of Munising. With the clearing skies and
winds falling off to light/calm, favored the lwr side of guidance
(mid teens F) for min temps in the interior. Temps will range up
thru the 20s elsewhere, warmest east along Lake Superior.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2023
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over western
Ontario which will slowly meander around and then finally end up
over the lower Great Lakes by 00z Thu. Diurnal nature to showers
will continue into Mon night and then it finally dries out as the
upper low moves to the east.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb shortwave in the
northern plains 12z Thu which digs into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Fri. This shortwave remains over the area through Sun. Temperatures
look to stay near normal for this forecast period. It also looks wet
with a slow storm system remaining over the area Thu into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 729 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2023
Some drying in the low levels under weak high pressure should
result in VFR conditions at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 239 PM EDT SUN APR 23 2023
As high pressure begins to build over Lake Superior this week, the
wind will stay below 20 knots through Fri.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
413 PM PDT Sun Apr 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Tonight into Monday will feature periods of rain and mountain
snow as a pair of systems move through the Inland Northwest. High
pressure will build over the Western U.S. on Tuesday and will
likely remain in place through the end of the week. Eastern
Washington and north Idaho can expect several days of dry weather
and above average temperatures during this time frame.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Remainder of the afternoon into the evening: Bands of light rain
have expanded across north Idaho and eastern Washington this
afternoon. As of 2 PM, thinning of the cloud deck in north central
Oregon up to Tri Cities and Moses Lake was aiding in the process
of afternoon destabilization. With temperatures in south central
Washington in the mid to upper 60s, the RAP analysis yielded
100-250 J/Kg of surface based CAPE. With a couple more hours of
warming, look for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
in the vicinity of a surface low emerging east of the Cascades
around Yakima. As this low tracks northeast toward Moses Lake and
Colville this evening, look for clusters of showers to track to
the northeast. A few cells will be capable of brief heavy rain,
pea hail, and lightning into the early evening.
Overnight and Monday: A compact and quick moving 500mb low will
move into northwest Washington late this evening and track to the
southeast overnight reaching northeast Oregon by Monday afternoon.
The track of this low will largely shadow the valleys of the East
Slopes of the Cascades. The models continue to develop wrap around
precipitation in the form of a transient deformation band across
the Idaho Panhandle and far northeast Washington. A few spots in
far north of the metro near Colville, Metaline, Priest Lake and
Sandpoint could get upwards of a half inch of precipitation
tonight with the combination of evening showers followed by wrap
around rain on Monday. With snow levels above 4500 feet in the
Panhandle and northeast Washington, snow accumulations will be
well above where most people live.
Other spots that will be favored for significant amounts of rain
and/or snow overnight into Monday will be the Cascade Crest and
the southern Idaho Panhandle. Stevens Pass has a 40 percent
chance of 2 inches of slushy accumulation by mid Monday morning.
The models also develop bands of moderate precipitation across the
Camas Prairie toward Lolo Pass from early Monday morning into the
mid afternoon. Localized amounts of a tenth to a third of an inch
are being generated by the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF. With snow levels
as low as 4000 feet in the morning, grassy accumulations aren`t
out of the question around Winchester and Nezperce before
temperatures climb into the low to mid 40s in the afternoon.
Further west, clearing in the lee of the Cascades will help push
high temperatures into the low to mid 60s in Wenatchee, Omak, and
Moses Lake.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Believe it or not, we are done talking
about precipitation and below average temperatures. There is
excellent model ensemble agreement that mild high pressure will
begin to build over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday. It will be a
flat ridge initially Tuesday and Wednesday allowing bands of mid
and high clouds to move across the Inland Northwest. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 50s in valleys
of north Idaho to the mid 60s in central Washington and the L-C
Valley. Look for widespread 60s and a handful of low 70s
Wednesday. /GKoch
Thursday through Sunday: Ensembles show greater confidence in the
amplifying narrow upper level ridge solution which allows for a
continued dry and warming forecast peaking on Saturday. NBM suggests
probability of equal or exceeding 70 degrees for Spokane
International Airport at 50 percent on Thursday, 70 percent Friday,
and 75 percent Saturday. Same ensembles shows some deamplification
of the ridge Sunday suggesting a slight interruption of the warming
trend and the introduction of a bit more clouds and perhaps spotty
light shower activity near the Cascade Crest and Blue Mountains but
confidence is not high at this point. Weak disturbances overtopping
and/or dropping down the eastern edge of this ridge will bring wind
shifts from the Northwest on Thursday and the Northeast on Friday as
well as a slight increase in cloud cover. Thermal ridge at 850mb
positioned over the Washington Coast Saturday allows for surface
winds to blow more from the east Saturday. Increased uncertainty
Sunday and beyond in association with the deamplification and/or
displacement of the upper level ridge as the earlier referred to
thermal ridge at 850mb looks to jump eastward and over the Cascades
and North Idaho Sunday which may allow for a bit more cloud cover to
stream overhead and the inclusion of very low pops and QPF over
mountain locations late Sunday with low confidence in the solution.
/Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFs: Clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms should
evolve from the cumulus building between Tri Cities and Moses
Lake. They will track to the northeast with the 700-500mb flow
about 25 to 30kts. Thunderstorms will be handled through TAF
amendments. Another band of light rain is expected to develop
across the eastern third of Washington around 10z and spread into
north Idaho around sunrise. Ceilings of 1500-2500ft are
advertised by GFS MOS as well as HREF guidance from roughly 12z to
20z for Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, Pullman, Lewiston, Sandpoint,
Colville, and Kellogg. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 41 56 36 60 37 67 / 80 50 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 41 53 37 57 37 65 / 90 60 10 0 0 0
Pullman 39 51 36 57 37 64 / 70 70 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 46 59 41 65 42 72 / 60 60 10 0 0 0
Colville 41 58 35 62 36 69 / 90 60 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 41 51 38 55 38 63 / 90 70 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 40 48 39 54 37 63 / 90 80 20 0 0 0
Moses Lake 44 64 36 66 39 72 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 42 60 39 66 41 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 43 63 37 66 39 70 / 40 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
704 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
GOES-16 visible imagery along with TBW 88D data show sea breeze
induced cumulus field beginning to extend vertically into the
atmosphere with a few showers showing up in Sarasota and Charlotte
counties. The HRRR has shown this scenario since yesterday with
potentially heavy showers and storms developing in Charlotte and
Lee counties soon. For the evening update, have extended rain
chances northward into Manatee county and increased chances a bit
for Charlotte and Lee. If the HRRR verifies, will need to increase
pops even more before the evening is done.
Otherwise - the current forecast is on track with just some slight
tweaks to winds near the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Expecting primarily VFR conditions next 24 hours. For this
evening, would not be surprised to see showers and storms develop
near PGD, FMY, and RSW and may need to add VCTS there in later
amendments. For Monday, lowering clouds with rain moving in from
the Gulf during the day. Could see some MVFR conditions after 18Z
but will keep out of TAFs for this cycle as confidence in location
and timing is low.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023
Weak high pressure will result in mainly light east to southeast
winds over the waters through Wednesday with afternoon onshore sea
breezes near the coast. Winds will turn south and southwest ahead
of a frontal boundary for the second half of the week. Several
upper-level disturbances will bring chances for showers and storms
through most of the forecast period starting Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 84 68 84 / 0 50 30 40
FMY 69 85 66 87 / 10 70 40 50
GIF 65 85 65 85 / 10 70 30 60
SRQ 67 85 66 85 / 10 50 30 40
BKV 61 85 62 86 / 10 50 20 40
SPG 71 84 70 84 / 0 50 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Jillson
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Giarratana