Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/17/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1102 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Key Messages:
-Complex spring storm with rain changing to snow areawide and
several inches of snow tonight (6 to 15") into Monday morning.
Melting and compaction will occur, thus, snow amounts Monday
morning will be affected by this.
-Cold low temperatures through Tuesday morning. Confidence
increasing in temperatures below 32 areawide Monday morning and 28
degrees or colder for much of the area Tuesday morning.
-More rain with a couple of systems later this week.
Overview:
Precipitation amounts through 12Z ranged from a few hundredths over
parts of north central IA to .79" near Camp Douglas and also 4N of
Richland center. Most locations picked up 0.25 to 0.60". Rochester
reported 0.34, La Crosse 0.32, NWS 0.35", and 0.33" in Onalaska.
The large 500mb closed low was situated over southern WI with the
low extending northwestward into MN. We are on the cold side of the
low with a mix of rain and snow occurring across the forecast area.
At 19Z, temperatures were in the 30s with dewpoints in the 30s and
brisk northwest winds. The latest WSR-88D reflectivity mosaic
showed the the moisture fetch with storms across parts of eastern
KY, OH, MI and this moisture wrapping around the low across MN and
into IA. An increase in precipitation/rain changing to heavy snow
was noted across parts of western WI since noon where steep lapse
rates, frontogenesis and a 95kt upper level jet over MI was
contributing to lift in the left exit region of the jet.
Visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2 mi were noted at Winona, La Crosse, and
Viroqua.
Heavy snow tonight and gusty winds:
Tonight, the closed low over eastern WI shifts east across Lake
Michigan with cyclonic flow and a deformation band of snow across
the forecast area especially near and east of the Mississippi River
with snow ending across our western parts of the forecast area.
The 16.00Z LREF Grand Ensemble has honed in on parts of western
and central WI with 50 to 85% probability of 6 inches or more of
snow. The 12Z NAM/FV3/HRRR/RAP all have heavy snow for parts of
western and central WI. The HRRR is heavier and shifted slightly
west. The NAM/FV3 have the gradient over far western WI into
southeast MN with the heaviest band thru Richland/Monroe/Jackson/
Juneau/Clark/Taylor. Our local snow probabilities have 60 to 100%
probabilities of 6" or more. Our latest snow forecasts continue
to highlight the warned area with 6 to 15 inches of heavy wet
snow. There will be gradients in the snow and these could be
several inches difference between the western and the eastern
part of counties on the western and southern parts of the warning
area.
With the snow ending earlier for our western counties will need to
assess impacts in our west related to the winter weather if winds
will be the main hazard.
Northwest winds are already gusting 35 to 40 mph and these winds
will continue to strengthen as the 997mb surface low deepens and
pulls away. Highest wind gusts over 30 to 40kts spreading into WI
and continue overnight. The gusty winds will last into Monday, but
decrease substantially overnight. The wind advisory for northeast
Iowa remains in place.
Related to winter headlines, with the deformation band shrinking,
but accumulating snow and impacts lasting into Monday morning,
extended the winter storm warning for several of the WI counties
until 18Z.
Cold temperatures:
Cyclonic flow continues Monday night with winds aloft still 30 to
45kts. This should mitigate temperatures falling too much
overnight. Sunshine moving in from the west will help
temperatures warm into the 40s, however readings may hold in the
30s farther east where the thicker clouds/recent snowcover
remains. Tuesday morning lows will hinge on the cloud cover and
winds. The models vary on how quick the clouds move out as surface
high pressure builds in. Will need to re-visit, however our
current forecast has the clouds pushing east of the area with
winds becoming light and variable or light northwest.
The 16.00Z HREF/LREF have a 90-100% chance of temperatures
falling to 32 degrees or colder for much of the forecast area for
Monday morning. The LREF has a 100% chance of temperatures being
28 degrees or colder Tuesday morning. There is a 55 to 95% chance
of 25 degrees or colder for areas that receive the heaviest snow.
Our current forecast has lows 25 to 30 for Monday morning and 15 to
28 Tuesday morning. Record lows at Rochester and La Crosse Tuesday
(4/18) are 16 (RST) and 20 (LSE); both set in 1983. The record at
Medford is 15 and Sparta WWTP 16 degrees/Ft. McCoy 20 degrees.
Next Week-Another Storm System with potential for .5-1.0"+ rains
Wednesday and Thursday; Friday too:
The storm system over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies
begins to move into the Plains Tuesday night. A lead wave will
bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast Wednesday.
The 16.00 EC is a little slower and weaker than the operational
16.12Z GFS. The 16.06Z GEFS mean QPF at KLSE/KRST is .5 to 1". The
16.00 EPS had 0.5 to 0.75" for the mean QPF. The operational GFS
has the potential for snow north of the area and the EC slightly
farther south. If the Wed-Fri systems occur could see some 1 to 2
inch rainfall amounts. The longer range Grand Ensemble shows that
an impactful snow of 3" or more is still very low 0 to 10%
through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
The next band of heavy snow has developed a little bit farther
west than previously expected and looks to keep the visibility
down at KLSE to under a mile for a few more hours. Otherwise, the
whole system continues to move slowly away which should allow the
snow to taper off to flurries fairly early overnight at KRST and
by sunrise at KLSE. The visibility will rapidly improve once the
snow diminishes while ceilings remain MVFR. Improvement in the
ceilings to VFR are expected during Monday afternoon for KRST and
in the evening for KLSE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Main flood wave from recent snowmelt upstream is moving down the
Mississippi River this week. Minor flooding is occurring near
Wabasha and Winona, MN. Crest along the Mississippi River from from
Lake City, MN downstream through La Crosse, WI remains the same.
With the recent rainfall and snowfall tonight into Monday morning
could bring the crests up to a half of a foot. Confidence the
expected runoff from the rain and snow is lower due to drier
conditions the past week. Moderate flooding will occur, however if
more runoff occurs from snowmelt over the next couple of days. There
is a small chance (10 to 20%) that Wabasha, Winona, and La Crosse
could reach Major Flood Stage.
The weather pattern continues to be unsettled next week with
periodic rounds of precipitation. The QPF from these system may
exacerbate ongoing flooding or could lead to a prolonged period of
elevated river levels. Continue to monitor the river forecast
through this week.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for WIZ032-054-055-
061.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029-033-
034-041>044-053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ079-086-087-
094-095.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MNZ088-096.
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ008-009-018-019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ010-011-
029-030.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...Zapotocny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
The forecast for tonight remains on track...no changes.
UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Quiet night ahead as clouds clear ahead of a mid level ridge
moving east into the region. Sfc high pressure central and east
may result in some patchy fog as winds subside, so did add this to
the forecast. Farther west, return flow develops ahead of a sfc
trough taking shape over eastern Montana. Overall, only minimal
changes to the forecast with this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Windy conditions develop on Monday in the west to central, with
mild temperatures forecast.
This afternoon, a surface high was centered over western to
central North Dakota, under moderate height rises aloft as a ridge
approaches from the west. Other than a few streamers of cirrus and
isolated fair weather cumulus in the west, skies are clear.
Tonight, the surface high shifts off to the east giving way to
pressure falls as the ridge axis approaches the state. The
tightening pressure gradient in the west will cause winds to turn
to the southeast and increase to 20 to near 30 mph on Monday. With
light winds in the central to east and clear skies, the RAP is
indicating a fog potential, though low level moisture is
questionable. There may be a slight potential where snowpack
remains and melting was ongoing today, but will leave fog out of
the forecast for now given the low confidence.
Temperatures will be warmest in the west near the Montana border
on Monday with highs around 60. In the east where snowpack
remains, highs in the low 40s are forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Seasonably colder temperatures with precipitation chances Tuesday
through the remainder of the week highlight the long term forecast
period.
Precipitation chances return on Tuesday as the upper ridge shifts
off to the east and a jet streak ejects out of the western CONUS
trough. Precipitation should initially begin as some light rain or
snow over the west and north in an area of warm air advection ahead
of the approaching mid-level low, which should arrive Tuesday
night. This period onward is where moderate uncertainty remains
within the track and evolution of the low, and subsequently where
the track of heavier QPF lands. Recent runs of GFS/ECMWF/CMC
ensembles and the NBM have seen QPF probabilities of greater than
0.5" shift either north into Canada or east well into Minnesota,
leaving the southern portions of western and central North Dakota
with just light precipitation. However WPC cluster analysis does
show two notable groupings of ensembles from the three cores that
still include a solution keeping greater QPF further into North
Dakota. Where the mid-level low closes off looks to be the key, as
current deterministics have it lifting into Canada before
stalling out, while the heavier precipitation solutions have the
500mb trough a bit further south and thus closing off the low into
North Dakota instead of Canada. This further south solution would
additionally likely come with better chances for accumulating
snow, as less warm air is pulled north and the TROWAL associated
with the low also occurs further south. In the overall forecast,
precipitation chances are widespread across the forecast area
mid-week but QPF will likely still shift around a bit as lead time
decreases. Precipitation chances persist through the remainder of
the work week as cyclonic flow continues behind the closed low,
with rain snow mixes in the forecast through this period, usually
depending on time of day.
Forecast temperatures fall well below normal mid to late week with
the arrival and passage of the aforementioned low, and will likely
remain below normal through the weekend as most guidance has
troughing lingering to the east, putting northwest flow over the
Northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds should turn to
the southeast and gradually and increase early Monday morning in
the west, while in the east winds become and remain light this
evening. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight in the central
to east but confidence remains low in development at any one TAF
site.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1201 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Forecast is in good shape this evening. Scattered showers, some with
graupel, continue in the cyclonic flow across central Indiana. Have
tweaked PoPs this evening as needed based on recent radar trends.
Forcing will increase overnight with the upper low, so PoPs will
trend upwards through the overnight. This was handled well by the
ongoing forecast.
Temperatures will continue to fall with the ongoing cold advection,
so rain will mix with and change to snow by late tonight, mainly
north. Forecast lows look reasonable, so no significant changes were
made.
Breezy conditions will persist tonight, making it feel even colder.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
* Raw, damp and windy conditions through Monday
* Snow mixing in with rain late tonight and Monday
The passage of a cold front this morning brought an abrupt end to
the warm temperatures enjoyed over the last week or so. Much cooler
air has advected into the area this afternoon with gusty westerly
winds making it feel even colder. In addition...drizzle and
scattered light rain showers have made conditions feel miserable.
18Z temperatures were generally in the 40s with wind chills...yes
wind chills...in the 30s.
A strengthening upper low with an associated surface wave will track
across the Great Lakes tonight and Monday keeping the region within
a chilly cyclonic flow aloft. The result will be a rude reminder
that winter-like conditions can periodically show up across central
Indiana in mid April. Raw...chilly and windy conditions will be the
standard through Monday with the dreaded "s" word making an
unwelcome reappearance across the northern half of the forecast area
late tonight into Monday.
As mentioned above...areas of drizzle and light rain showers
continue to track across central Indiana early this afternoon. With
a narrow dry slot in the postfrontal zone pivoting through the
forecast area this afternoon...may see the coverage drop back for a
bit before picking back up into the evening. That being said...think
a few sprinkles and/or drizzle will persist for the rest of the
afternoon with model soundings showing saturated conditions
lingering through the boundary layer and beneath a broader dry
layer. Temps will continue to slide back through the 40s the rest of
the day with wind gusts peaking at 30-40mph.
Forcing aloft will steadily increase tonight with the upper low
tracking into lower Michigan in tandem with temperatures continuing
to fall. Model soundings indicate critical thicknesses being
breached after midnight as subfreezing air gets pulled down into the
boundary layer. Expect snow beginning to mix in with the rain
showers overnight and steadily expanding south to around the I-70
corridor towards daybreak Monday. Snow is likely to become the
predominant precip type late tonight over northern portions of the
forecast area and while overall rates will be low...there is
potential for a few heavier snow showers that may be enough to
briefly dust the grass and elevated surfaces before melting. Ground
temperatures remain well above freezing after the recent warm
stretch with no impacts to roads expected at all into Monday morning.
Central Indiana will gradually work into the backwash of the cold
pool aloft as the day progresses Monday...but remain still heavily
influenced by the nearby upper low as it shifts into Ontario.
Scattered convective rain and snow showers will continue with a
primary focus over the northeast half of the forecast area into the
afternoon... especially as low level lapse rates steepen and tap
into the cold air present within the upper parts of the boundary
layer. A couple tenths of an inch of snow remain a possibility on
Monday but surface accumulation is not anticipated.
Further to the south and west...increasing subsidence with an
approaching surface ridge will enable scattering of the low clouds
across the lower Wabash Valley and south central Indiana by late
afternoon. Winds will again be a primary impact all day Monday with
hints that some of the strongest gusts in the short term will occur
during the afternoon as the low levels become well mixed. While it
will be windy...still appears peak gusts will largely remain below
advisory criteria. Will likely continue to handle the stronger winds
through Monday via an SPS.
Temps...well below normal temperatures are expected for tonight and
Monday. Undercut guidance through the period considering the
extensive cloudiness and overall unsettled conditions. Lows tonight
will fall into the mid and upper 30s from north to south. The
stronger wind gusts persisting all night will preclude any frost
accrual with no need for headlines. Monday has a solid chance to
become the coldest day of the month to date and will be an around
miserable day. There will be a broad temperature gradient of 15
degrees or so with the potential for sunshine to develop over
southwest counties by late afternoon. HIghs will struggle into the
lower and mid 40s over the northeast half of the forecast
area...warming into the mid 50s over the lower Wabash Valley
courtesy of the late day sun.
&&
.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
* Frost/freeze potential Tuesday and Wednesday morning
* Warming trend mid to late week to above normal temperatures
* Chances for rain and storms return Thursday through next weekend
* Colder conditions return for next weekend
.Monday night Through Wednesday morning...
Active long term period ahead for Central Indiana. The first area of
focus will be the frost/freeze potential for portions of the area
both Monday night and Tuesday night. The period begins with a
vertically stacked area of low pressure lifting northeastward into
Ontario. A thin area of high pressure extends from Manitoba
southeastward toward Southwest Indiana and into the Gulf Coast
states. Tight pressure gradient across Central and Northern Indiana
combined with a 40 kt low level jet should keep winds elevated
Monday night through Tuesday morning. RAP forecast soundings and
cross sections reveal low level moisture remaining trapped under a
strong inversion just above the surface through the night. Elevated
winds and cloud cover should work to keep temperatures at or just
above the freezing mark for Central and North Central Indiana
despite consistent cold air advection. Expect However, across
Southwestern Indiana where the pressure gradient slackens and skies
potentially clear, the possibility is there for freezing and/or sub-
freezing temperatures towards sunrise Tuesday. Keeping lows in the
mid 30s for the northeastern half of the area then deviating from
guidance and having cooler lows in the lower 30s for the
southwestern portions of the forecast area. For now, keeping all
locations at or above 32 degrees, but those numbers may need to be
lowered across Southwest Indiana depending on how much clearing and
drying takes places tomorrow. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed
in future forecast packages.
Highs Tuesday rebound quite nicely into the 50s to near 60 with
strong solar heating, a dry environment, and warm air advection
aloft. Expecting clearing skies through the morning hours as high
pressure becomes centered over the region.
High pressure quickly shifts eastward ahead of a developing system
in the Plains. The associated warm front will likely be approaching
from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning leading to
increasing clouds and quite a sharp SW-NE temperature gradient
across the state. Frost/freeze concerns Wednesday morning shift to
the north and eastern portions of the area where winds will be
almost calm close to the high pressure center and skies will be
mainly clear much of the night. Kokomo to Muncie and points north
and east will have the best chance at dropping to the freezing mark.
Increasing clouds and easterly winds across the southwest 2/3 of the
forecast area should keep temperatures above freezing. Sharp
temperature gradient will exist by the morning hours Wednesday with
likely near freezing temperatures near Muncie and temperatures in
the mid 40s near Vincennes. Will be monitoring conditions closely as
frost/freeze headlines may be needed again Wednesday morning.
.Wednesday Through Thursday...
Warm front pushes northward Wednesday placing Indiana within the
warm sector of the approaching system in the Plains. Latest guidance
continues to indicate the best forcing for ascent and moisture along
the front will be west of the region in Illinois and Iowa. Would not
be surprised to see a stray shower across western or northwestern
Indiana Wednesday with the passage of the warm front though. Most
locations are expected to remain dry with partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Increasing southwesterly low level jet will pump in much
warmer and moist air through the day, so still expect highs to reach
the mid to upper 70s despite clouds.
For Thursday, medium range guidance continues to come closer in line
with the development and timing of the Plains system with good
consensus in a frontal passage Thursday night into early Friday.
Storms may form out ahead of the front Thursday evening and if they
do, strong storms are possible with dewpoints around 60, SBCAPE
around 1500 J/kg, and 30-40kts of bulk shear. There doesn`t look to
be any lifting mechanism that early in the day with the front still
to the west, so any threat would be conditional on an earlier than
expected frontal passage. Given the nocturnal nature of the expected
storms Thursday night into Friday, the severe threat appears less
likely at the moment. However, still not ruling out the possibility
of severe weather as this is a complex system and any changes to the
track, speed, or timing could enhance the threat of severe weather.
.Friday into Next Weekend...
Broad upper troughing sets up across the Midwest and Eastern CONUS
Friday into next weekend signaling the return of more unsettled and
cooler weather. Complex upper low associated with the trough sets up
just north of the region with numerous waves rotating about it.
Keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Friday through Saturday for now.
Confidence is low in exact details, timing, and location of these
waves rotating around the upper low and into the region. Guidance
will likely have trouble resolving those weaker features until the
end of the week.
Both GFS and EC ensembles show well below normal 500mb heights and
850mb temperature anomalies for the weekend and into next week
raising confidence in a much cooler weather pattern setting up.
Potential is there for frost/freeze conditions as high pressure
moves in Sunday and into early the following week.
&&
.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023
Impacts:
- MVFR flying conditions are expected in rain and snow showers
through 19z-24z
- Windy with direction 250-280 degrees, speed 20+ knots and
gusts to 30+ knots dropping off and switching to 280 to 310
degrees after 00z-03z
Discussion:
MVFR flying conditions associated with the upper low will
hang around until this evening and then improve. Meanwhile,
rain and snow showers will continue into the late day and
evening at KIND and KLAF but end this afternoon at the other
terminals.
Windy conditions will continue with WSW winds to 20+ knots
and gusts to 30+ knots through late afternoon and early evening.
Then, winds will start to drop off as the direction shifts to the
WNW in the wake of a surface trough.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Update...50
Short Term...Ryan
Long Term...CM
Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
726 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Convection continues to build gradually southeastward this
evening, largely tracking along the axis of greatest instability.
Although instability overall will wane due to lack of insolation,
convective coverage could actually see an uptick over the next
few hours as ascent increases ahead of a convectively enhanced
shortwave approaching from the GOM. Although a few strong storms
remain possible as mid-lvl wind fields increase, the hydro threat
will begin to become more prominent as storms begin to track
southward into saturated portions of the east coast metro
(especially Broward county). Expect this complex to generally
move offshore around or just after midnight. There is also some
potential for additional storms over the west coast/Interior late
tonight into Monday morning as the GOM complex moves onshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
A hot and humid afternoon across South Florida. Abundant low-level
moisture and diurnal heating will lead to plenty of instability in
the atmosphere. A shortwave will be moving across the Florida
peninsula ahead of a frontal boundary this afternoon. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
the interior that will then spread towards the east coast. A few
storms may be strong to severe with an isolated strong to damaging
wind gust and small to marginally severe hail possible. The Storm
Prediction Center has all of South Florida in a marginal risk for
severe storms today.
Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding,especially over areas
that are still saturated and still trying to drain from the recent
flooding event. The Weather Prediction Center has upgraded portions
of the east coast into a Slight risk for excessive rainfall. While
less confidence in tornado potential, there may be a chance for
funnel clouds or a brief tornado with any cells that move towards
and interact with the Atlantic seabreeze.
A little uncertainty in the forecast late tonight into early
tomorrow morning as the current cluster ongoing in the Gulf Mexico
approaches the Florida peninsula. The HRRR has begun to back off on
a secondary line of storms late tonight, but will continue to
monitor it this afternoon and make adjustments with the forecast
update this evening.
On Monday, the unsettled weather is expected to continue as the
aforementioned front will not clear the area completely, and allow
for moisture to linger across much of South Florida. Wind flow
behind the front will begin veering to a more W to NW component.
Diurnal heating and breaks in the clouds will be something we have
to monitor tomorrow. If we get enough daytime heating a sea breeze
may try to develop with easterly/onshore flow at the sfc along the
Atlantic coast. This may result in another event of coastal
convergence, with showers and storms developing through the
afternoon/early evening hours along the coast. Therefore, have
increased POPs over the east coast. Given the rainfall forecast for
today and this potential, the Weather Prediction Center has
introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Monday.
Temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler due to the increased
cloud cover but temperatures will still be in the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Drier air will filter into the region from the north Monday night
into Tuesday as the mid-lvl boundary finally shifts south. This
will bring any rain to an end from north to south, with the entire
area likely dry by the daytime hours on Tuesday. A dry and
seasonable NErly flow will then set-up on Tuesday, before
gradually shifting more easterly on Wednesday as high pressure
north of the area shifts eastward. This will make for a fairly
pleasant midweek period with highs ranging from around 80 on the
east coast to the mid 80s over the Interior/west coast. Dewpoints
may even mix into the 50s by Tuesday afternoon...a number which
becomes increasingly rare to reach as we enter late spring.
The Atlantic high will shift further out to sea Thursday and there
may be just enough moisture return to support the return of
coastal-convergence induced showers along the east coast. Heading
into Friday-Saturday, guidance begins to diverge with the
GFS/GEFS camp favoring a less amplified solution for the trough
over the eastern US while the EC/CMC (and ensembles) favor a more
amplified trough during this timeframe. Regardless, any
(theoretical) cold frontal passage would hold off until after
Saturday. Consequently, generally warm conditions should prevail
with precip chances somewhat dependent upon the strength of any
prefrontal warm advection regime.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Restrictions in rain and storms will be likely over the east coast
terminals through around 02-04Z with locally gusty winds also a
threat with any storms. Storm coverage should generally wane
after midnight, although improvement to VFR is not guaranteed as
some lower clouds may stick around. Another round of storms will
be possible Monday afternoon. Winds will trend light and variable
overnight behind the storms, with winds generally W-NW on Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
Showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend and to begin the week
on Monday, which may produce locally hazardous marine conditions. As
the frontal boundary moves through increasing wind as seas will be
possible in the Gulf tomorrow with SCEC conditions. High pressure
will develop mid-week with northeasterly wind developing. SCEC
conditions may be possible mid week over the Atlantic waters.
&&
.BEACHES...
An elevated risk of rip currents will be possible along the Gulf
coast on Monday with increasing onshore wind flow behind a weak
frontal passage. An elevated risk may be possible for the Atlantic
beaches for the middle part of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 72 85 69 80 / 60 70 30 20
West Kendall 69 85 66 83 / 60 70 30 20
Opa-Locka 72 85 67 82 / 60 70 30 10
Homestead 70 86 67 82 / 50 70 30 20
Fort Lauderdale 71 84 69 80 / 70 70 30 10
N Ft Lauderdale 71 83 69 80 / 70 70 30 10
Pembroke Pines 71 84 67 81 / 70 70 30 10
West Palm Beach 69 82 67 80 / 70 60 20 10
Boca Raton 70 82 67 80 / 80 70 30 10
Naples 71 84 64 85 / 40 40 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...Carr