Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/17/23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1102 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Key Messages: -Complex spring storm with rain changing to snow areawide and several inches of snow tonight (6 to 15") into Monday morning. Melting and compaction will occur, thus, snow amounts Monday morning will be affected by this. -Cold low temperatures through Tuesday morning. Confidence increasing in temperatures below 32 areawide Monday morning and 28 degrees or colder for much of the area Tuesday morning. -More rain with a couple of systems later this week. Overview: Precipitation amounts through 12Z ranged from a few hundredths over parts of north central IA to .79" near Camp Douglas and also 4N of Richland center. Most locations picked up 0.25 to 0.60". Rochester reported 0.34, La Crosse 0.32, NWS 0.35", and 0.33" in Onalaska. The large 500mb closed low was situated over southern WI with the low extending northwestward into MN. We are on the cold side of the low with a mix of rain and snow occurring across the forecast area. At 19Z, temperatures were in the 30s with dewpoints in the 30s and brisk northwest winds. The latest WSR-88D reflectivity mosaic showed the the moisture fetch with storms across parts of eastern KY, OH, MI and this moisture wrapping around the low across MN and into IA. An increase in precipitation/rain changing to heavy snow was noted across parts of western WI since noon where steep lapse rates, frontogenesis and a 95kt upper level jet over MI was contributing to lift in the left exit region of the jet. Visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2 mi were noted at Winona, La Crosse, and Viroqua. Heavy snow tonight and gusty winds: Tonight, the closed low over eastern WI shifts east across Lake Michigan with cyclonic flow and a deformation band of snow across the forecast area especially near and east of the Mississippi River with snow ending across our western parts of the forecast area. The 16.00Z LREF Grand Ensemble has honed in on parts of western and central WI with 50 to 85% probability of 6 inches or more of snow. The 12Z NAM/FV3/HRRR/RAP all have heavy snow for parts of western and central WI. The HRRR is heavier and shifted slightly west. The NAM/FV3 have the gradient over far western WI into southeast MN with the heaviest band thru Richland/Monroe/Jackson/ Juneau/Clark/Taylor. Our local snow probabilities have 60 to 100% probabilities of 6" or more. Our latest snow forecasts continue to highlight the warned area with 6 to 15 inches of heavy wet snow. There will be gradients in the snow and these could be several inches difference between the western and the eastern part of counties on the western and southern parts of the warning area. With the snow ending earlier for our western counties will need to assess impacts in our west related to the winter weather if winds will be the main hazard. Northwest winds are already gusting 35 to 40 mph and these winds will continue to strengthen as the 997mb surface low deepens and pulls away. Highest wind gusts over 30 to 40kts spreading into WI and continue overnight. The gusty winds will last into Monday, but decrease substantially overnight. The wind advisory for northeast Iowa remains in place. Related to winter headlines, with the deformation band shrinking, but accumulating snow and impacts lasting into Monday morning, extended the winter storm warning for several of the WI counties until 18Z. Cold temperatures: Cyclonic flow continues Monday night with winds aloft still 30 to 45kts. This should mitigate temperatures falling too much overnight. Sunshine moving in from the west will help temperatures warm into the 40s, however readings may hold in the 30s farther east where the thicker clouds/recent snowcover remains. Tuesday morning lows will hinge on the cloud cover and winds. The models vary on how quick the clouds move out as surface high pressure builds in. Will need to re-visit, however our current forecast has the clouds pushing east of the area with winds becoming light and variable or light northwest. The 16.00Z HREF/LREF have a 90-100% chance of temperatures falling to 32 degrees or colder for much of the forecast area for Monday morning. The LREF has a 100% chance of temperatures being 28 degrees or colder Tuesday morning. There is a 55 to 95% chance of 25 degrees or colder for areas that receive the heaviest snow. Our current forecast has lows 25 to 30 for Monday morning and 15 to 28 Tuesday morning. Record lows at Rochester and La Crosse Tuesday (4/18) are 16 (RST) and 20 (LSE); both set in 1983. The record at Medford is 15 and Sparta WWTP 16 degrees/Ft. McCoy 20 degrees. Next Week-Another Storm System with potential for .5-1.0"+ rains Wednesday and Thursday; Friday too: The storm system over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies begins to move into the Plains Tuesday night. A lead wave will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast Wednesday. The 16.00 EC is a little slower and weaker than the operational 16.12Z GFS. The 16.06Z GEFS mean QPF at KLSE/KRST is .5 to 1". The 16.00 EPS had 0.5 to 0.75" for the mean QPF. The operational GFS has the potential for snow north of the area and the EC slightly farther south. If the Wed-Fri systems occur could see some 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts. The longer range Grand Ensemble shows that an impactful snow of 3" or more is still very low 0 to 10% through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 The next band of heavy snow has developed a little bit farther west than previously expected and looks to keep the visibility down at KLSE to under a mile for a few more hours. Otherwise, the whole system continues to move slowly away which should allow the snow to taper off to flurries fairly early overnight at KRST and by sunrise at KLSE. The visibility will rapidly improve once the snow diminishes while ceilings remain MVFR. Improvement in the ceilings to VFR are expected during Monday afternoon for KRST and in the evening for KLSE. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Main flood wave from recent snowmelt upstream is moving down the Mississippi River this week. Minor flooding is occurring near Wabasha and Winona, MN. Crest along the Mississippi River from from Lake City, MN downstream through La Crosse, WI remains the same. With the recent rainfall and snowfall tonight into Monday morning could bring the crests up to a half of a foot. Confidence the expected runoff from the rain and snow is lower due to drier conditions the past week. Moderate flooding will occur, however if more runoff occurs from snowmelt over the next couple of days. There is a small chance (10 to 20%) that Wabasha, Winona, and La Crosse could reach Major Flood Stage. The weather pattern continues to be unsettled next week with periodic rounds of precipitation. The QPF from these system may exacerbate ongoing flooding or could lead to a prolonged period of elevated river levels. Continue to monitor the river forecast through this week. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for WIZ032-054-055- 061. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029-033- 034-041>044-053. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ079-086-087- 094-095. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MNZ088-096. IA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ008-009-018-019. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ010-011- 029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Zapotocny AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...Zapotocny
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 The forecast for tonight remains on changes. UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Quiet night ahead as clouds clear ahead of a mid level ridge moving east into the region. Sfc high pressure central and east may result in some patchy fog as winds subside, so did add this to the forecast. Farther west, return flow develops ahead of a sfc trough taking shape over eastern Montana. Overall, only minimal changes to the forecast with this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Windy conditions develop on Monday in the west to central, with mild temperatures forecast. This afternoon, a surface high was centered over western to central North Dakota, under moderate height rises aloft as a ridge approaches from the west. Other than a few streamers of cirrus and isolated fair weather cumulus in the west, skies are clear. Tonight, the surface high shifts off to the east giving way to pressure falls as the ridge axis approaches the state. The tightening pressure gradient in the west will cause winds to turn to the southeast and increase to 20 to near 30 mph on Monday. With light winds in the central to east and clear skies, the RAP is indicating a fog potential, though low level moisture is questionable. There may be a slight potential where snowpack remains and melting was ongoing today, but will leave fog out of the forecast for now given the low confidence. Temperatures will be warmest in the west near the Montana border on Monday with highs around 60. In the east where snowpack remains, highs in the low 40s are forecast. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Seasonably colder temperatures with precipitation chances Tuesday through the remainder of the week highlight the long term forecast period. Precipitation chances return on Tuesday as the upper ridge shifts off to the east and a jet streak ejects out of the western CONUS trough. Precipitation should initially begin as some light rain or snow over the west and north in an area of warm air advection ahead of the approaching mid-level low, which should arrive Tuesday night. This period onward is where moderate uncertainty remains within the track and evolution of the low, and subsequently where the track of heavier QPF lands. Recent runs of GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensembles and the NBM have seen QPF probabilities of greater than 0.5" shift either north into Canada or east well into Minnesota, leaving the southern portions of western and central North Dakota with just light precipitation. However WPC cluster analysis does show two notable groupings of ensembles from the three cores that still include a solution keeping greater QPF further into North Dakota. Where the mid-level low closes off looks to be the key, as current deterministics have it lifting into Canada before stalling out, while the heavier precipitation solutions have the 500mb trough a bit further south and thus closing off the low into North Dakota instead of Canada. This further south solution would additionally likely come with better chances for accumulating snow, as less warm air is pulled north and the TROWAL associated with the low also occurs further south. In the overall forecast, precipitation chances are widespread across the forecast area mid-week but QPF will likely still shift around a bit as lead time decreases. Precipitation chances persist through the remainder of the work week as cyclonic flow continues behind the closed low, with rain snow mixes in the forecast through this period, usually depending on time of day. Forecast temperatures fall well below normal mid to late week with the arrival and passage of the aforementioned low, and will likely remain below normal through the weekend as most guidance has troughing lingering to the east, putting northwest flow over the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds should turn to the southeast and gradually and increase early Monday morning in the west, while in the east winds become and remain light this evening. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight in the central to east but confidence remains low in development at any one TAF site. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1201 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Forecast is in good shape this evening. Scattered showers, some with graupel, continue in the cyclonic flow across central Indiana. Have tweaked PoPs this evening as needed based on recent radar trends. Forcing will increase overnight with the upper low, so PoPs will trend upwards through the overnight. This was handled well by the ongoing forecast. Temperatures will continue to fall with the ongoing cold advection, so rain will mix with and change to snow by late tonight, mainly north. Forecast lows look reasonable, so no significant changes were made. Breezy conditions will persist tonight, making it feel even colder. && .Short Term...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 * Raw, damp and windy conditions through Monday * Snow mixing in with rain late tonight and Monday The passage of a cold front this morning brought an abrupt end to the warm temperatures enjoyed over the last week or so. Much cooler air has advected into the area this afternoon with gusty westerly winds making it feel even colder. In addition...drizzle and scattered light rain showers have made conditions feel miserable. 18Z temperatures were generally in the 40s with wind chills...yes wind the 30s. A strengthening upper low with an associated surface wave will track across the Great Lakes tonight and Monday keeping the region within a chilly cyclonic flow aloft. The result will be a rude reminder that winter-like conditions can periodically show up across central Indiana in mid April. Raw...chilly and windy conditions will be the standard through Monday with the dreaded "s" word making an unwelcome reappearance across the northern half of the forecast area late tonight into Monday. As mentioned above...areas of drizzle and light rain showers continue to track across central Indiana early this afternoon. With a narrow dry slot in the postfrontal zone pivoting through the forecast area this afternoon...may see the coverage drop back for a bit before picking back up into the evening. That being said...think a few sprinkles and/or drizzle will persist for the rest of the afternoon with model soundings showing saturated conditions lingering through the boundary layer and beneath a broader dry layer. Temps will continue to slide back through the 40s the rest of the day with wind gusts peaking at 30-40mph. Forcing aloft will steadily increase tonight with the upper low tracking into lower Michigan in tandem with temperatures continuing to fall. Model soundings indicate critical thicknesses being breached after midnight as subfreezing air gets pulled down into the boundary layer. Expect snow beginning to mix in with the rain showers overnight and steadily expanding south to around the I-70 corridor towards daybreak Monday. Snow is likely to become the predominant precip type late tonight over northern portions of the forecast area and while overall rates will be low...there is potential for a few heavier snow showers that may be enough to briefly dust the grass and elevated surfaces before melting. Ground temperatures remain well above freezing after the recent warm stretch with no impacts to roads expected at all into Monday morning. Central Indiana will gradually work into the backwash of the cold pool aloft as the day progresses Monday...but remain still heavily influenced by the nearby upper low as it shifts into Ontario. Scattered convective rain and snow showers will continue with a primary focus over the northeast half of the forecast area into the afternoon... especially as low level lapse rates steepen and tap into the cold air present within the upper parts of the boundary layer. A couple tenths of an inch of snow remain a possibility on Monday but surface accumulation is not anticipated. Further to the south and west...increasing subsidence with an approaching surface ridge will enable scattering of the low clouds across the lower Wabash Valley and south central Indiana by late afternoon. Winds will again be a primary impact all day Monday with hints that some of the strongest gusts in the short term will occur during the afternoon as the low levels become well mixed. While it will be windy...still appears peak gusts will largely remain below advisory criteria. Will likely continue to handle the stronger winds through Monday via an SPS. Temps...well below normal temperatures are expected for tonight and Monday. Undercut guidance through the period considering the extensive cloudiness and overall unsettled conditions. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 30s from north to south. The stronger wind gusts persisting all night will preclude any frost accrual with no need for headlines. Monday has a solid chance to become the coldest day of the month to date and will be an around miserable day. There will be a broad temperature gradient of 15 degrees or so with the potential for sunshine to develop over southwest counties by late afternoon. HIghs will struggle into the lower and mid 40s over the northeast half of the forecast area...warming into the mid 50s over the lower Wabash Valley courtesy of the late day sun. && .Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 * Frost/freeze potential Tuesday and Wednesday morning * Warming trend mid to late week to above normal temperatures * Chances for rain and storms return Thursday through next weekend * Colder conditions return for next weekend .Monday night Through Wednesday morning... Active long term period ahead for Central Indiana. The first area of focus will be the frost/freeze potential for portions of the area both Monday night and Tuesday night. The period begins with a vertically stacked area of low pressure lifting northeastward into Ontario. A thin area of high pressure extends from Manitoba southeastward toward Southwest Indiana and into the Gulf Coast states. Tight pressure gradient across Central and Northern Indiana combined with a 40 kt low level jet should keep winds elevated Monday night through Tuesday morning. RAP forecast soundings and cross sections reveal low level moisture remaining trapped under a strong inversion just above the surface through the night. Elevated winds and cloud cover should work to keep temperatures at or just above the freezing mark for Central and North Central Indiana despite consistent cold air advection. Expect However, across Southwestern Indiana where the pressure gradient slackens and skies potentially clear, the possibility is there for freezing and/or sub- freezing temperatures towards sunrise Tuesday. Keeping lows in the mid 30s for the northeastern half of the area then deviating from guidance and having cooler lows in the lower 30s for the southwestern portions of the forecast area. For now, keeping all locations at or above 32 degrees, but those numbers may need to be lowered across Southwest Indiana depending on how much clearing and drying takes places tomorrow. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed in future forecast packages. Highs Tuesday rebound quite nicely into the 50s to near 60 with strong solar heating, a dry environment, and warm air advection aloft. Expecting clearing skies through the morning hours as high pressure becomes centered over the region. High pressure quickly shifts eastward ahead of a developing system in the Plains. The associated warm front will likely be approaching from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning leading to increasing clouds and quite a sharp SW-NE temperature gradient across the state. Frost/freeze concerns Wednesday morning shift to the north and eastern portions of the area where winds will be almost calm close to the high pressure center and skies will be mainly clear much of the night. Kokomo to Muncie and points north and east will have the best chance at dropping to the freezing mark. Increasing clouds and easterly winds across the southwest 2/3 of the forecast area should keep temperatures above freezing. Sharp temperature gradient will exist by the morning hours Wednesday with likely near freezing temperatures near Muncie and temperatures in the mid 40s near Vincennes. Will be monitoring conditions closely as frost/freeze headlines may be needed again Wednesday morning. .Wednesday Through Thursday... Warm front pushes northward Wednesday placing Indiana within the warm sector of the approaching system in the Plains. Latest guidance continues to indicate the best forcing for ascent and moisture along the front will be west of the region in Illinois and Iowa. Would not be surprised to see a stray shower across western or northwestern Indiana Wednesday with the passage of the warm front though. Most locations are expected to remain dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Increasing southwesterly low level jet will pump in much warmer and moist air through the day, so still expect highs to reach the mid to upper 70s despite clouds. For Thursday, medium range guidance continues to come closer in line with the development and timing of the Plains system with good consensus in a frontal passage Thursday night into early Friday. Storms may form out ahead of the front Thursday evening and if they do, strong storms are possible with dewpoints around 60, SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg, and 30-40kts of bulk shear. There doesn`t look to be any lifting mechanism that early in the day with the front still to the west, so any threat would be conditional on an earlier than expected frontal passage. Given the nocturnal nature of the expected storms Thursday night into Friday, the severe threat appears less likely at the moment. However, still not ruling out the possibility of severe weather as this is a complex system and any changes to the track, speed, or timing could enhance the threat of severe weather. .Friday into Next Weekend... Broad upper troughing sets up across the Midwest and Eastern CONUS Friday into next weekend signaling the return of more unsettled and cooler weather. Complex upper low associated with the trough sets up just north of the region with numerous waves rotating about it. Keeping chance PoPs in the forecast Friday through Saturday for now. Confidence is low in exact details, timing, and location of these waves rotating around the upper low and into the region. Guidance will likely have trouble resolving those weaker features until the end of the week. Both GFS and EC ensembles show well below normal 500mb heights and 850mb temperature anomalies for the weekend and into next week raising confidence in a much cooler weather pattern setting up. Potential is there for frost/freeze conditions as high pressure moves in Sunday and into early the following week. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1200 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023 Impacts: - MVFR flying conditions are expected in rain and snow showers through 19z-24z - Windy with direction 250-280 degrees, speed 20+ knots and gusts to 30+ knots dropping off and switching to 280 to 310 degrees after 00z-03z Discussion: MVFR flying conditions associated with the upper low will hang around until this evening and then improve. Meanwhile, rain and snow showers will continue into the late day and evening at KIND and KLAF but end this afternoon at the other terminals. Windy conditions will continue with WSW winds to 20+ knots and gusts to 30+ knots through late afternoon and early evening. Then, winds will start to drop off as the direction shifts to the WNW in the wake of a surface trough. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...50 Short Term...Ryan Long Term...CM Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
726 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 715 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Convection continues to build gradually southeastward this evening, largely tracking along the axis of greatest instability. Although instability overall will wane due to lack of insolation, convective coverage could actually see an uptick over the next few hours as ascent increases ahead of a convectively enhanced shortwave approaching from the GOM. Although a few strong storms remain possible as mid-lvl wind fields increase, the hydro threat will begin to become more prominent as storms begin to track southward into saturated portions of the east coast metro (especially Broward county). Expect this complex to generally move offshore around or just after midnight. There is also some potential for additional storms over the west coast/Interior late tonight into Monday morning as the GOM complex moves onshore. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 A hot and humid afternoon across South Florida. Abundant low-level moisture and diurnal heating will lead to plenty of instability in the atmosphere. A shortwave will be moving across the Florida peninsula ahead of a frontal boundary this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the interior that will then spread towards the east coast. A few storms may be strong to severe with an isolated strong to damaging wind gust and small to marginally severe hail possible. The Storm Prediction Center has all of South Florida in a marginal risk for severe storms today. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding,especially over areas that are still saturated and still trying to drain from the recent flooding event. The Weather Prediction Center has upgraded portions of the east coast into a Slight risk for excessive rainfall. While less confidence in tornado potential, there may be a chance for funnel clouds or a brief tornado with any cells that move towards and interact with the Atlantic seabreeze. A little uncertainty in the forecast late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the current cluster ongoing in the Gulf Mexico approaches the Florida peninsula. The HRRR has begun to back off on a secondary line of storms late tonight, but will continue to monitor it this afternoon and make adjustments with the forecast update this evening. On Monday, the unsettled weather is expected to continue as the aforementioned front will not clear the area completely, and allow for moisture to linger across much of South Florida. Wind flow behind the front will begin veering to a more W to NW component. Diurnal heating and breaks in the clouds will be something we have to monitor tomorrow. If we get enough daytime heating a sea breeze may try to develop with easterly/onshore flow at the sfc along the Atlantic coast. This may result in another event of coastal convergence, with showers and storms developing through the afternoon/early evening hours along the coast. Therefore, have increased POPs over the east coast. Given the rainfall forecast for today and this potential, the Weather Prediction Center has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Monday. Temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler due to the increased cloud cover but temperatures will still be in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Drier air will filter into the region from the north Monday night into Tuesday as the mid-lvl boundary finally shifts south. This will bring any rain to an end from north to south, with the entire area likely dry by the daytime hours on Tuesday. A dry and seasonable NErly flow will then set-up on Tuesday, before gradually shifting more easterly on Wednesday as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. This will make for a fairly pleasant midweek period with highs ranging from around 80 on the east coast to the mid 80s over the Interior/west coast. Dewpoints may even mix into the 50s by Tuesday afternoon...a number which becomes increasingly rare to reach as we enter late spring. The Atlantic high will shift further out to sea Thursday and there may be just enough moisture return to support the return of coastal-convergence induced showers along the east coast. Heading into Friday-Saturday, guidance begins to diverge with the GFS/GEFS camp favoring a less amplified solution for the trough over the eastern US while the EC/CMC (and ensembles) favor a more amplified trough during this timeframe. Regardless, any (theoretical) cold frontal passage would hold off until after Saturday. Consequently, generally warm conditions should prevail with precip chances somewhat dependent upon the strength of any prefrontal warm advection regime. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Restrictions in rain and storms will be likely over the east coast terminals through around 02-04Z with locally gusty winds also a threat with any storms. Storm coverage should generally wane after midnight, although improvement to VFR is not guaranteed as some lower clouds may stick around. Another round of storms will be possible Monday afternoon. Winds will trend light and variable overnight behind the storms, with winds generally W-NW on Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend and to begin the week on Monday, which may produce locally hazardous marine conditions. As the frontal boundary moves through increasing wind as seas will be possible in the Gulf tomorrow with SCEC conditions. High pressure will develop mid-week with northeasterly wind developing. SCEC conditions may be possible mid week over the Atlantic waters. && .BEACHES... An elevated risk of rip currents will be possible along the Gulf coast on Monday with increasing onshore wind flow behind a weak frontal passage. An elevated risk may be possible for the Atlantic beaches for the middle part of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 85 69 80 / 60 70 30 20 West Kendall 69 85 66 83 / 60 70 30 20 Opa-Locka 72 85 67 82 / 60 70 30 10 Homestead 70 86 67 82 / 50 70 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 71 84 69 80 / 70 70 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 71 83 69 80 / 70 70 30 10 Pembroke Pines 71 84 67 81 / 70 70 30 10 West Palm Beach 69 82 67 80 / 70 60 20 10 Boca Raton 70 82 67 80 / 80 70 30 10 Naples 71 84 64 85 / 40 40 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelly LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...Carr